Russia’s Hybrid Warfare in 2025

How will Russia Reshape Hybrid Warfare Tactics in 2025

Russia’s intelligence operations are evolving rapidly, with new tactics reshaping the landscape of hybrid warfare. From social media-fueled recruitment to sophisticated underwater sabotage, these actions signal a significant escalation in Europe’s security challenges for 2025.

What Is Hybrid Warfare?

Hybrid warfare is a contested term often used to describe covert operations that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare, avoiding direct triggers for international responses such as NATO’s Article 5. These tactics combine traditional military methods with cyber operations, economic disruption, and disinformation campaigns to create confusion, weaken adversaries, and achieve strategic objectives without overt declarations of war.

Russia has mastered this approach, employing a mix of sabotage, social media recruitment, and underwater operations to advance its interests while maintaining plausible deniability. Understanding these tactics is key to anticipating and countering future threats.

What is Driving the Surge in Sabotage in Europe?

In 2024, Russian intelligence operations intensified, targeting critical infrastructure like factories, supply chains, and undersea communications cables. Recruitment via social media has allowed Russia to create a low-cost, gig-style economy for acts of sabotage, such as arson and tampering. Payments through secure methods, including cryptocurrency, ensure operatives remain hard to trace.

Plots against high-profile executives and attacks on military bases suggest Russia’s willingness to escalate, potentially including assassinations. Meanwhile, undersea sabotage operations targeting critical cables and pipelines could destabilise economies and communications across Europe.

The Impact of Reduced US Support on European Security

With the incoming US administration expected to curtail military aid to Ukraine, Europe faces mounting pressure to counter Russian aggression alone. This shift may embolden the Kremlin to take greater risks, from targeted assassinations to sophisticated infrastructure sabotage.

What’s inside:

Social Media Recruitment: How Russia identifies and mobilises new operatives in the West.
Underwater Operations: The growing threat to critical infrastructure like fiber optic cables and pipelines.
Targeted Escalation: The rising risks of sabotage and covert actions across Europe.
Geopolitical Implications: What a potential reduction in U.S. support for Ukraine means for European stability.