Israel-Hamas War 2023

Intelligence cut off date: 1000 gmt 10 october 2023

A comprehensive report on the recent conflict, including;

“It seems increasingly likely that the region is now on course to see the outbreak of a broader conflict.” This was the assessment that Solace Global Intelligence made in May 2023 when the security situation between Israel and Palestine continued to rapidly deteriorate.

With the incursion into southern Israel by the Gaza-based militant group Hamas over the weekend of 7 and 8 October, this eventuality became a reality, and the region is now on the precipice of a protracted and deadly conflict. Such a conflict will undoubtedly have significant ramifications for those operating in the region.

Consequently, this report will analyse the ongoing events, furnish practical recommendations for navigating the situation, and offer future assessments to equip decision-makers with an enhanced comprehension of the circumstances, facilitating more informed choices regarding their operations.

The events of the weekend 7 and 8 October did not occur in isolation or without precedent.  Both 2021 and 2022 were consecutively recorded as being the deadliest years in the West Bank for over 15 years, and 2023 was already on the way to supersede these. Recent political developments in both the West Bank and Israel have only fueled existing tensions and have contributed to the rising rates of violence. Many of the tensions and issues underpinning the current volatility are long-standing and well-known, however recent months have seen domestic developments occur in Israel which have almost certainly been exploited by Hamas to carry out their actions.

In recent years both Israel and the Palestinian territories have seen a decline in security. As a result, the United Nations declared 2022 the deadliest year since the end of the Second Intifada in 2005. The Second Intifada is estimated to have left at least 4,300 people dead over a five-year period. Intifadas, or uprisings, are sustained periods of deadly unrest and violence across Israel and the Palestinian territories characterised by high civilian and military casualties. The Second Intifada was particularly marked by gun battles, assassinations, and tank and aerial attacks by Israeli forces. Palestinian forces meanwhile engaged in targeted bombings, gun battles, and rocket attacks. The use of suicide attacks also increased considerably during this period.

The current decline in security has been driven by the emergence of new Palestinian militia groups inside the West Bank. Such groups include the Lion’s Den, Balata Brigades, Mujahideen Movement, Popular Resistance Movement and the Yabad Brigades. It should be noted that whilst some of these groups have only recently formed in the West Bank, they have been present in Gaza for some time.