With opposition leaders detained and most candidates barred from running, Tunisia’s upcoming elections are heavily tilted in President Kais Saied’s favor. Despite low voter turnout and ongoing economic struggles, Saied is poised for re-election, though civil unrest is likely to follow as dissatisfaction grows and opposition forces are stifled.

Lithuania’s upcoming parliamentary elections are expected to be closely contested between the centre-right Homeland Union (TS-LKD) and the opposition Social Democrat Party (LSDP), currently leading in the polls. While major policy shifts are unlikely, Lithuania’s strategic importance as a Baltic state may prompt increased Russian hybrid warfare activities, including disinformation and sabotage. However, Lithuania’s resilience to pro-Russian influence, due to its smaller Russian population and lack of strong pro-Russia parties, remains a significant factor.

Bulgaria’s upcoming elections follow a prolonged period of political instability, with seven elections in just over three years. Despite widespread discontent, the polling suggests that no party has captured a decisive lead, raising the likelihood of yet another inconclusive result. The country’s political deadlock is contributing to economic stagnation and complicating its Eurozone and Schengen membership hopes. Meanwhile, the far-right Revival party continues to gain traction with provocative policies, further fueling potential unrest as public dissatisfaction with the political system grows.

Uruguay’s 2024 elections will determine key positions in both the Chamber of Representatives and Senate, along with a potential presidential runoff. With the left-leaning Broad Front (FA) leading in polls by 10 points over the ruling National Party (PN), this election may signal a shift in the country’s political dynamics. Amid rising inequality and insecurity, the left’s resurgence reflects both domestic dissatisfaction and broader global pressures. Though Uruguay is known for its political stability, the far-right Cabildo Abierto’s growing presence raises concerns of unrest if the FA wins, particularly given their stance on prosecuting dictatorship-era crimes.

Ghana is set to hold elections on December 7, aiming to elect both the president and members of Parliament. While the country is recognised for its stability and democratic processes, concerns over political violence loom large, with previous elections marred by unrest and fatalities. The two dominant parties, the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), have heightened tensions through populist rhetoric and claims of electoral corruption, raising fears of potential violence during the upcoming election cycle.