Arab Coalition Prevent Alleged Houthi Attack on Tanker near Al Hudaydah

• Coalition forces reportedly destroyed suspicious vessels approaching a Saudi tanker near Al Hudaydah on 06 January.
• Coalition sources suggest the vessels were remote- controlled drones packed with explosives.
• This may demonstrate the Houthi’s capability to carry through threats to close the Red Sea to maritime traffic.

Maritime: Preliminary and unconfirmed reporting emerged on Sunday 07 January suggesting that the Arab coalition had destroyed at least one Houthi vessel near Al Hudaydah port, with no indication of motivation for the attack. On 10 January, statements by senior coalition personnel indicated that the attack was carried out due to the belief that the destroyed vessels were remote-  controlled drones, loaded with explosives, and intended to strike a Saudi tanker transiting the Red Sea.

On 09 January, the Houthi group’s news agency issued a threat that the group would actively seek to close the Red Sea transit route unless the Saudi coalition eased their attacks on Houthi-occupied Al Hudaydah port.

Reporting on this attack is sparse, and issued primarily from limited sources inside the Arab coalition. This organization has a strong vested interest in enhancing international support for its ongoing campaign in Yemen, and in support of the wider regional power-struggle with Iran; therefore exaggeration of the threat is possible.

Statements from the Houthi’s themselves, regarding intent to control Red Sea traffic occur frequently, and appear to primarily seek to press the Coalition into relieving pressure applied through land and air operations within Yemen. Whilst the group may see Saudi, or other coalition-flagged vessels as legitimate targets, wholesale closure of the Red Sea would ultimately led to greater support for the coalition against them. It is therefore unlikely that they will seek to use indiscriminate attacks against Red Sea traffic to close the transit route.

The technical capability demonstrated by the Houthis in this incident remains unclear due to the destruction of the vessels, and no independent analysis of the debris. As indicated, the Coalition reported that the boats were remote-controlled drones, which may give the Houthi’s effective and relatively affordable stand-off capability against undefended vessels, or vessels protected only by small arms. The guidance system for the drones remains unclear, and with no precise details known concerning the launch point, or the exact location of the target tanker, it remains impossible to assess the weapon’s potential to strike further into the Red Sea. Due to the description as remote-control, rather than autonomous, it is likely that the drones would require line-of-sight from operator to the target in order to ensure a successful attack; this in turn is a substantial limiting factor as use would be restricted to within visual range the coast, or would require the use of a mother-ship to launch and coordinate the attack.

A more concerning development would be the use of suicide-operated vessel borne explosive devices. This would essentially make the system independent of a targeting or fire control system, removing the vulnerabilities and limitations these impose, and  extending the effective range to the limit of the boat’s fuel tank. This would, however, come at the cost of potentially increased vulnerability to small arms, and a substantial increase in personnel attrition compared to unmanned systems.