In London next week, Extinction Rebellion are set to commence what could be their longest series of unrest thus far.  The group are planning to occupy sites throughout the British capital from 10:00 local time on 23 August. The specific locations of the unrest remain vague at this time however, the demonstrations will start at Trafalgar Square and will target the City of London.

The demonstrations are set to be part of what the group are terming, The Impossible Rebellion. The main goal of the unrest is for the government to “stop all new fossil fuel investment immediately”.  The protests are planned for two weeks, with the group urging people to take time off work to take part.

By targeting the city, the group are aiming to disrupt the political economy, which they believe is the root cause of the crisis They hope this will put pressure on the biggest financial institutions that are fueling this emergency and that this pressure will cause a “ripple effect” leading to government reform.

The planned action comes following the release of the UN IPCC report on climate change. In the more than 4 000 page report, the UN has termed the situation a “code red for humanity with dire consequences for the planet.

The authors of the report believe that the world will be 1.5 Celsius hotter in 2040 when compared to pre-industrial times. It is stated that there is an almost certainty of increasingly extreme heatwaves, droughts and flooding. Importantly, a key temperature limit is likely to be broken in just over a decade. Meaning that, by then, climate change, and its effects, will be irreversible.

The report expresses the hope that if humanity acts quickly, then temperatures could be stabilised. Otherwise, many of the consequences that the globe will face will be irreversible. However, this would require deep cuts in the emission of greenhouse gases that, as of yet, are not forthcoming.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The unrest is set to be the groups first large-scale protest in London since September 2020. In the rally last year, protesters successfully blocked parliament square, as well as targeted Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and disrupted the printing of newspapers.

It is also common for the group to target offices of oil companies, such as BP, as well as banks with strong ties to the fossil fuel industry, such as HSBC. Buildings linked to these companies, such as the National Art Gallery, which is sponsored by BP, have also been the target of unrest in the past.

The group are also prone to publicity stunts that range from being generally disruptive with an underlying image, to what are extremely dangerous headline-grabbing incidents. In the past, windows have been broken or painted black (to signify oil). A decommissioned fire engine was also used to spray “blood” in front of the UK treasury. Operations at City Airport and on the tube have also been disrupted, usually by solo acts by individuals affiliated with the group.

It is highly likely that the upcoming unrest will involve some form of high-profile incident. It is also almost certain that other, smaller, incidents will occur. This could range from the blocking of major roads in the British capital to minor acts of vandalism and sabotage. Non-violent resistance is also likely, with arrests almost certain. Disruption and delays in the capital should be expected.

While it is unclear what exact high-profile incident may or may not be planned, there is a possibility that road, rail and air services in the capital will be disrupted. Major blockages, including the storming of train tracks, blocking all the bridges on the Thames, or disrupting operations at London City and other airports in the capital, are possible.

Outside of London, similar protests should be expected in all cities across the UK, while these will be smaller than those in the capital, disruption is almost certain. Unrest and protests elsewhere, in Europe, Australia and the US, is also highly likely.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

On 15 August 2021, the Afghan capital of Kabul fell to the Taliban. The country’s president, Ashraf Ghani, has also departed for Tajikistan. The Taliban, who refer to themselves as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, are now in control of all major buildings in the city, except for the airport.

The capture has been largely peaceful. Similar to the fall of many of the provincial capitals, the Taliban have faced little resistance in their capture of the city. Indeed, Taliban soldiers have now taken control of the checkpoints and security posts that used to be manned by Afghan soldiers. Despite the relatively peaceful nature of the capitulation and takeover, there have been reports of Taliban forces searching for former government officials and ex-soldiers.

The capitulation has also resulted in Afghan troops surrendering at the airport in Kandahar, the Taliban’s capital prior to 2001. A number of Afghan special forces had been holding out against the Taliban in the strategic and symbolic city’s airport.

It is now almost a formality that the remaining territory in the country will fall under the control of the Taliban, known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Foreign troops do remain in Kabul, mainly to ensure security at the airport. However, these troops are expected to depart by the end of the month.

Despite the almost smooth transition of power, fear has resulted in thousands attempting to flee the city. Many have attempted to storm Kabul’s airport with widely shared video footage on social media showing individuals clinging on to an aircraft’s landing gear as it took off. At least three people were killed as the C-17A transport plane departed the airport, with five others killed on the ground.

As a result of this breach of the airport perimeter, evacuation flights were grounded for a period of time on Monday 16 August. Flights have since recommenced with the US military also taking over the operation of air traffic control. It is possible that further breaches of the airport permitter may occur in the coming days, delaying flights.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The fall of Kabul and swift capture of most of the country by Taliban forces have taken all commentators by surprise. Even last week US analysts were predicting a 60-90-day timeframe. Given that it has taken just four days from when that estimate was made until the complete collapse of the Western-backed government shows how complete the capitulation of Afghan government troops has been.

The relative peacefulness of the takeover has, however, allowed a sense of calm to descend on Kabul. Taliban soldiers have taken over the running of checkpoints and policing in the city, giving a sort of continuation to operations.

Despite this, however, there are concerns going forward that the reinstalling of Taliban Islamic fundamentalist rule in the country will lead to repression and an undermining of all the positive changes that have occurred in the country. Already air force pilots have been killed in their homes, while a comedian was also executed in Kandahar.

For women too, there are fears that Taliban rule will undermine the advances in schooling and freedom. Though there have been reports of women walking in the street alone since the take over of Kabul, girls have already been turned away from schools in Herat.

The two main concerns for the country and the international community are now a refugee crisis and the risk of a full-scale civil war. It is expected that hundreds of thousands, potentially millions, will now attempt to flee the country. Given the already high levels of food and water insecurity in the region, a humanitarian disaster is a very real possibility. Much will rest on how willing the Taliban will be to open borders and allow aid in.

A large-scale civil war is not looking likely immediately, instead, the Taliban will likely consolidate their control. However, given the tribal nature of the country, and how quickly the situation has changed in the past weeks, an internal conflict in the coming months cannot be ruled out..

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

On Sunday, 25 July 2021, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied dismissed the country’s government and suspended parliament. The announcement came after nationwide violent protests over the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of the country’s economy. The president announced that he would assume executive authority with a new prime minister.

Protesters this weekend were demanding the removal of the government in response to a spike in COVID-19 cases. Video footage was widely circulated of Tunisians holding slogans against Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, with many shouting and calling for the dissolution of Parliament. Clashes and stone throwing were also reported.

The unrest was not unique, Tunisians have taken to the streets a number of times this year. In addition to protests over the weekend, demonstrations over the country’s situation have been recurring for months, with over 1,000 arrests and one death between January and March 2021.

The move was largely initially welcomed by crowds in the country’s capital, Tunis. Much of the recent anger and unrest in Tunisia had focused on the Ennahdha party, the biggest in parliament. This made the president’s announcement popular, with Saied even joining many of those celebrating on Habib Bourguiba Avenue, the same focal point of the 2011 revolution. With the recent political deadlock, many will be hoping that some sort of action can occur to attempt to tackle the country’s woes.

However, despite the initial apparent jubilation on the street, opponents of the president have condemned the announcement as an attack on democracy. Parliament Speaker Rached Ghannouchi called on regular Tunisians to take to the streets to stop what he is calling a coup, with opponents adding it breaches the constitution.

The president has warned against violence, stating that “whoever shoots a bullet, the armed forces will respond with bullets”. Tunisia’s border security has also been tightened, with reports of a ban on travel for politicians.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

It remains unclear what will happen going forward with concerns of further violence and the possibility of a democratic backslide. The political crisis is the biggest challenge facing Tunisia since the Arab Spring, which started in the country, and its subsequent democratisation in 2011. The country had been the unique success story from the Arab Spring.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the poor economic situation in the country. This has led to thousands being left unemployed with no prospects. Indeed, in 2020, the country’s unemployment rate stood at 16.6 percent, with youth unemployment at 36 percent, higher than it was during the reign of  President Ben Ali.

The removal of the prime minister and parliament will not immediately solve this crisis. Many will, instead, hope that a political decision can now be made effectively, avoiding the repeated stalemate from disagreements between the president, PM and parliament.

However, there are also concerns that unrest could now escalate. Supporters of the largest party in parliament, Ennahda, and other parties opposed to the president have already taken to the street in protest of the announcement. Clashes were reported on Monday in Tunis outside the parliament building, which had been cordoned off by the military.

Going forward, many are looking to where the army stands and what moves they make. During the unrest in 2011, the army stood with protesters against the police and police violence. This has given the country’s armed forces a lot of respect among the general populace.

There will also be the concern of a democratic regression in the country. The bending of the constitution by the president will remind many of former President Ben Ali. While those in country, and in the region, will not be wanting to slide back into a dictatorship, many on the streets will be hoping that something, anything, can improve their prospects.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

SITUATION SUMMARY

Hundreds of people are reportedly unaccounted for following the worst flooding in decades in north-western Germany. Record rainfall has caused rivers to burst their banks and led to widespread devastation in the region. In Germany, more than 80 people are reported to have been killed, while across the border in Belgium, at least 12 people have lost their lives.

In Germany, the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia have been the worst affected. Photos have shown urban areas inundated, cars swept away and, in Cologne, the Rhine River close to bursting its banks. There have also been numerous bridge collapses and roads blocked alongside power failures, hampering rescue efforts. A dam, the Rurtalsperre close to the Belgium border, has also failed, while the Steinbachtalsperre, between Ahrweiler and Erftstadt, is unstable.

Emergency services have been deployed with efforts ongoing to account for those currently unaccounted for.

In Belgium, the rainfall has heavily impacted the country’s east. Even the city of Liege, the third-largest urban centre in Belgium, has been sharply impacted with numerous houses flooded. Around 10 houses collapsed in the Pepinster region are the river Vesdre flooded. A further 1,000 people had to be evacuated from their homes due to fears that further buildings would collapse and/or be inundated.

Switzerland has also seen flooding with officials in Lucerne deploying mobile defences. France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands have also been impacted by the heavy rainfall.

Footage widely circulated on social media has shown the extent of the floods. In Verviers, Belgium, cars were videotaped being swept down the road with onlookers stating that the water was at least 2 metres in depth in some places. Aerial footage has also shown the extent of the flooding, with floodwaters covering whole towns in some places.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

These are Germany’s worst floods since 2002 when inundations occurred around the Elbe River. The flooding at the time was billed by the German media as “once-in-a-century floods”. They resulted in 21 deaths in eastern Germany and more than 100 fatalities across central Europe. Such extreme weather is only likely to increase in the coming years due to climate change.

Indeed, the Premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, has blamed the extreme weather on global warming. Indeed, it has been widely reported by the scientific community that periods of extreme rainfall, such as what northern Europe is experiencing right now, would become more common due to human-induced climate change.

Outside of the region, the UK was hit by severe flooding earlier in the week. Here, scientists have condemned the government, stating that the country was even less, not more, prepared for extreme weather than it was five years ago.

As a result, further extreme weather events, such as those seen in Germany and Belgium, are likely to only increase in the coming years. Indeed, heavy flooding has been a regular occurrence throughout Europe and the western world. This is despite positive advancements in flood defences in the past decades.

For example, in the UK between late 2019 and early 2020, heavy flooding and extreme weather saw numerous regions flooded and widespread infrastructural damage. Additionally, in France in 2016 and 2020 there was heavy flooding, including in and around Paris and in the country’s southeast. Indeed, the 2020 flooding was accompanied by unprecedented extreme weather. Finally, just last week, Japan saw a number of fatalities following heavy rain and a landslide in Atami City.

Travellers and businesses should be prepared for further disruption, damage and threat to life as a result of climate change-driven extreme weather.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

In the early morning hours of 7 July, Haiti’s President Jovenel Moïse was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen at his private residence in the Pelerin 5 district of Pétion-Ville, an affluent suburb of Port-au-Prince. First Lady Martine Moïse also sustained critical injuries and is receiving medical treatment in Florida.

A police operation following the killing resulted in the deaths of at least four suspects and two detained. A senior police official indicated other suspects remained at large. There was no immediate comment on the suspects’ identity or possible affiliations.

Preliminary reports indicate the late president’s killers were disguised as US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents, spoke English and Spanish, and carried high-powered weapons. Haiti’s ambassador to the United States, Bocchit Edmond, said he believed the killing was the work of “professional mercenaries” and later said they were disguised as agents.

The assassination was confirmed by Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has subsequently assumed the role of Acting President. In the wake of Moïse’s assassination, PM Joseph declared a nationwide “state of siege” under Article 149 of the Constitution of Haiti. The declaration grants extended executive powers and allows the military to be deployed for policing roles.

Toussaint Louverture International Airport, Haiti’s main airport, was closed by the authorities in the immediate aftermath of the assassination. Several inbound and outbound flights were cancelled, whilst others were diverted to nearby countries.

Authorities in the neighbouring Dominican Republic also announced the closure of the country’s land border with Haiti until further notice. Additional military assets were deployed to the border as a precautionary measure to strengthen the border’s security in anticipation of civil unrest in Haiti.

Mr Joseph also condemned the attack as a “hateful, inhumane and barbaric act.“, and called on the United Nations to hold a Security Council meeting to help shed light on the situation. A UN Security Council is expected to hold a closed-door meeting on 8 July.

The security situation is likely to deteriorate in the coming days and weeks. The reports of the assailants speaking Spanish and English as well as being disguised as DEA agents has led to many alleging that foreign individuals or governments were involved in the attack. As such, anti-foreigner rhetoric and incidents may occur.

Further attacks on members of the Government of Haiti cannot be ruled out. Initial statements from the United States Embassy in Haiti suggest that the assassination of the President was conducted by a group of “well-coordinated” and “highly trained” gunmen. Though the motivation behind the assassination is not known at this time, the Acting President is considered a political ally of the deceased President and may be targeted in a future attack.

Moïse’s time in office has been marked by political instability which was fuelled by corruption allegations and controversial changes to Haiti’s constitution to allow him to run for consecutive terms in office. Large-scale, violent and disruptive protests calling for a different leader and fresh elections have been underway since 2018. In February 2021, the President’s refusal to leave office led to a constitutional crisis and an escalation in violent anti-government unrest, with 31 deaths and 300 injuries.

The fragile political situation has directly affected the wider security environment. It has also served as a trigger for a rise in criminal activities, including gang violence, murders and armed robberies. Instances of kidnapping for ransom have also dramatically risen over the past few months.

Additionally, should there be a delay in holding fresh elections, there is a high likelihood of additional scenes of civil unrest throughout Haiti, particularly in the capital of Port-au-Prince.

For more information, please email info@solaceglobal.com or give us a call on +44 (0) 1202 308 810.

The Bowra Foundation, founded by Mark Bowra was aimed at inspiring resilience among those suffering from neurological disorders through practical challenges. With many of Solace team coming from backgrounds in the Armed Forces we support Mark Bowra’s previous cycling challenges and are proud to support his good friend Ray as he embarks on a new challenge.  

With the integration of GPS tracking devices into our Solace Tracking platform anyone can follow Ray’s tour and watch his progress. You can even monitor when he is coming to your town and cheer him on and maybe even purchase a book.

Solace Global Risk understands the inherent risks faced by film crews, not only in countries of a moderate and high-risk level, but also from the risks that arise with the nature of this topic and operations which are being conducted. Therefore, the need for an appropriate and discreet solution that allowed for little impact on operations, was paramount.

With filming crews in need of discretion, Solace Global Risk provided yet another successful enhanced monitoring and support service that included the provision of (inSIGHT) services*, including pro-actively communicating real-time vicinity incidents and tracking of the teams movements. The team had scheduled check in’s and a comprehensive response protocol plan. This proactive capability, along with access to Solace Global Risk’s tracking platform, Solace Secure, provided the team with vital intelligence to mitigate the risks they faced whilst filming.

Using our overwatch monitoring tool on Solace Secure, our response team were able to monitor the crews regular check in’s. Automated reminders were in place for those in-country to assist  them to check in on time, while our team had eyes on their check in’s 24/7, being able to begin response procedures immediately should anything go amiss.

*inSIGHT (Security/Intelligence/Guidance/Help/Tracking) ensures your people and assets are in constant view of the Solace 24/7 response team. Our pro-active monitoring service will monitor your personnel and assets for you and respond to vicinity risks and incidents. InSIGHT forms part of our Protect series of services which also includes, Tracking & Technology (Solace Secure), Journey Management, Executive Protection & In-Country Security, Crisis Management, Evasion and Response Services.

As a trusted supplier to major media broadcasters, Solace Global understands the extensive risk management needs of media organisations providing enhanced intelligence, check in monitoring, overarching support through Solace Secure plus 24/7 Response Assistance and Crisis Management.

If you require any security advice or assistance on your project, contact our team today at info@solaceglobal.com

In the past 24 hours, Israel has launched a series of deadly overnight airstrikes against targets in Gaza, killing at least 26 Palestinians, including nine children. The airstrikes were ordered in response to a barrage of rocket attacks launched by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip on 10 May. According to local reports, around 25 people were being treated for injuries following the rocket attacks.

The escalation between Israel and Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas, comes after days of violent clashes in Jerusalem and other areas that have seen hundreds of Palestinian protesters injured. Indeed, Hamas had previously warned of aggression in retaliation to the brutal suppression of Palestinian protesters at Islamic religious sites in Jerusalem’s Old City.

Some of these clashes took place on Islam’s holy night of Laylat al-Qadr around the Al Aqsa mosque, Islam’s third holiest site. The protests initially started whilst the outcome of a legal case, which could see Palestinian families at the risk of expulsion from their homes in East Jerusalem, remains unresolved.

Palestinian rockets have also reportedly targeted Jerusalem, with  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating Hamas had “crossed a red line”, and that “Israel will respond with great force.” In total, more than 200 rockets have been fired at Israel.

The vast majority of rockets fired at Israel have been intercepted by the country’s Iron Dome missile defence system. However, there have been reports of rockets landing in residential neighbourhoods in Israel, notably Ashdod and Ashkelon, both south of Tel Aviv near the Gaza border.

The IDF have responded to the rocket attacks by launching dozens of targeted air strikes on the Gaza Strip. These strikes have focused on Hamas controlled areas and on known Hamas and militant safehouses. However, the strikes have also resulted in a number of civilian casualties. At the time of writing, according to officials in Gaza, at least 26 Palestinians had been killed, including nine children. It is also being reported that two people had died in Israel following the rocket strikes.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT 

The main trigger for the escalation appears to be the clashes between police and Arab protesters in the al-Asqa mosque compound. Israeli security personnel had moved in to disperse crowds and protesters. The police personnel employed a number of heavy handed crowd control methods, including the use of tear gas and stung grenades, as well as the reported use of rubber bullets. The clashes resulted in 330 Palestinians and at least 21 police officers being injured.

The conflict then quickly expanded seeing rockets and airstrikes, as well as fatalities.

Despite the immediate trigger, the main underlying cause of the unrest and violence continues to be the unresolved conflict between Jews and Arabs in Israel and the Palestine State. The current tensions have been increased in recent weeks over the eviction of Arabs from East Jerusalem. This combined with the heavy-handed action by Israeli police during Ramadan only served to inflame the situation.

The violence has coincided with the ongoing precariousness in Israeli politics. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s position appears under threat as coalition talks progress between his rivals, with it looking increasingly likely that the prime minister may be replaced in the coming months.

Further rocket attacks are likely to continue, with at least 70 reportedly being fired around lunchtime on 11 May. Additionally, Israeli airstrikes are also likely to continue, targeting known Hamas and other militant locations in Gaza. At this time, it remains highly likely that Israeli missile defences will continue to intercept the vast majority of air strikes.

Unrest is also likely to continue, especially in East Jerusalem where the eviction of Arabs from the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood remains unresolved. Israelis claim to own the property on which 70 mostly refugee Palestinian families have lived for decades.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

Please note, this information is accurate as of 11.05.2021. Solace are continuing to monitor the situation, if you require support or advice, please email info@solaceglobal.com

Haitian President Jovenel Moise has claimed that a plot to assassinate him and stage a coup d’état has been foiled by authorities. In a national address on the morning of 7 February, President Moise announced that 23 people had been arrested, including a Supreme Court judge and a senior police official, amid ongoing investigations into the alleged coup. He provided no initial details or evidence relating to the plot, which purportedly began in November 2020. ​

It is understood that as Moise’s mandate was set to reach the date that opposition leaders deemed the end of his term, they moved to select Justice Mecene Jean-Louis, the most senior member of Haiti’s Supreme Court, as the transitional president. However, in response, the Supreme Court was reported to have been surrounded by police intending to detain the judge. Jean-Louis has since been retired of his post via an executive order signed by the president, alongside two other Supreme Court Justices who were selected by the opposition. ​

The political developments have further intensified the continued unrest facing the capital, Port-au-Prince. As a result, violent clashes occurred across the capital, with security forces deploying tear gas and firing live ammunition at anti-government demonstrators.

The announcement came amid an escalation of violent unrest in Port-au-Prince sparked by President Moise’s refusal to leave office on 7 February. The president has repeatedly insisted that his five-year term ends in February 2022, on the grounds that an interim government held the office in his first year. His claim has since been supported by the Biden administration in the US and the Organization of American States. This has been disputed by Haitian opposition factions, activist groups and much of the Haitian population, triggering a constitutional crisis.​

The unrest saw business operations and transportation shut down or significantly impacted in the city on Monday, 8 February. However, as of yet, there have been no formal calls for widespread strike action.​

Of further note, instances of heavy gunfire occurred in the Champ de Mars area, wounding and hospitalising two reporters. The incident saw local journalists rally to condemn the incident and call for blood donations. Despite this, the Haitian high command has disputed the incident by rejecting allegations that Haitian soldiers were culpable. ​

​SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT 

The political crisis in Haiti has intensified against a backdrop of rampant organized crime and an alarming epidemic of kidnapping for ransom. According to reports, nearly 200 kidnappings occurred last year, up from 39 cases in 2019. ​

The spike is both a symptom of the political crisis facing Haiti today and a factor driving it. The state has assisted the rise of Haiti’s powerful criminal actors both directly, by providing impunity and support to gangs in exchange for political favours, and indirectly, through its endemic corruption and ineffectiveness in the face of crippling economic hardship.  ​

The uncontrolled crime environment also presents a significant threat to the possibility of conducting free, fair and safe elections, while already constituting a key factor fuelling steep levels of voter abstention (less than ten percent of voters supported Moise in 2016).  ​

Opposition critics view the dispute as a continuation of Moise’s efforts to establish a more autocratic presidency, an argument compounded by his decision to postpone legislative elections previously scheduled for October 2019 and instead govern by decree. 

At the time, Moise blamed parliament itself for the postponement, however, critics have accused him of attempting to hijack the political process. Moise also intends to hold a referendum on the country’s constitution during his final year, a plan that has been criticised as not politically viable and arguably unconstitutional.  ​

On top of this, on 26 November 2020, he issued a decree ordering the formation of a national intelligence agency that supersedes existing law enforcement and reports to the president, alongside the funding of more robust surveillance and public security capabilities. If enacted, the legislation would divert huge sums of public funds away from the pressing socio-economic needs of Haitians, while attempting to establish a markedly authoritarian law enforcement mechanism.  ​

A sustained period of escalating civil unrest and a further deterioration of an already fragile and dangerous security context should be anticipated in Haiti. Demonstrators believe the president has no mandate to remain in office, a position largely supported by a desperate and disappointed Haitian electorate. As a result, it is highly likely that there will be continued violent opposition to Moise’s presidency.​

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE 

Please contact us on info@solaceglobal.com or on +44 (0) 1202 308 810 if you require advice or assistance.

On 1 February, Myanmar’s military seized control of the country in a coup d’état that saw civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior government officials detained in a series of early morning raids. Following the coup, a video address broadcast on military-run television network confirmed power had been handed to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and that a year-long state of emergency had been enacted.

Mobile internet connections and some phone services have been disrupted in major cities, especially in the largest city, Yangon, and the capital, Naypyidaw. The country’s state broadcaster MRTV is also reportedly off-air, citing technical difficulties.

Separately, on 30 January, the country had extended its restrictions on international flights as result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the military has since taken control of the country’s airports and there are unconfirmed reports that border points are closed. Additionally, roadblocks and military checkpoints both likely in the coming days.

The coup comes after several days of escalating tensions between the civilian government and military over the results of November 2020’s election. The military-backed opposition Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) performed poorly in the vote, which was won comprehensively by the National League for Democracy (NLD) party led by Ms Suu Kyi.

The USDP refused to recognise the results and the military conducted a campaign to discredit the elections, citing electoral fraud and voter irregularities, as well as threatening to “take action” and abolish the constitution in January.

The situation had appeared to have calmed over the weekend with the military appearing to have stepped back from the coup threat and stating that it would abide by the law and protect the constitution. Despite this, the military launched the coup during the early hours of 1 February, quickly detaining key politicians and declaring emergency military rule.

The military’s actions have sparked condemnation from the international community with Australia’s Foreign Minister expressing concern and calling on the military to “respect the rule of law, to resolve disputes through lawful mechanisms and to release immediately all civilian leaders”. The EU, UK, US and United Nations have all also condemned the military coup.

The coup is a blow for the democracy movement in Myanmar, bringing the country back under military rule, which it had previously been between 1962 and 2011.

For observers, the timing of the coup fits, with the detentions coming on the morning when the result of the election would have been enshrined, with all political leaders gathered to mark the occasion. However, it is unclear what the military has to gain. Despite the poor performance in the election, the military continued to wield strong influence and, thanks to the 2008 constitution, are guaranteed three key ministries and 25 percent of the seats in parliament. Indeed, the military never really submitted to civilian rule.

It is likely then that the landslide NLD victory and widespread popularity has been seen as a threat to the military’s position. Despite the control of the country’s political landscape that the military enjoys, notably the controversial 2008 constitution, it had, from its perspective, lost significant control of the political process.

Going forward, unrest in Myanmar should be expected. Protests have already occurred in Tokyo and Bangkok as a result of the coup and the detention of Nobel Peace Prize winner Ms Suu Kyi. The NLD have also stated that Suu Kyi was calling on people to protest against the military coup. Should a protest gain strength, there remains a risk that the crisis could escalate, with protesters pitched directly against the military.

An important factor for the crisis will be China’s stance. Beijing sees political stability as crucial for its Belt and Road Initiative. The country also has strong ties with the NLD, endorsing their victory and second term. However, it remains unlikely that China will impose much diplomatic pressure on the country.

Please contact us on info@solaceglobal.com or on +44 (0) 1202 308 810 if you require advice or assistance.

Vienna, Austria – 3 November 2020 – Terror Risk

Several gunmen carrying assault rifles have opened fire in a number of locations in central Vienna in an apparent complex terror attack that has left at least four civilians dead and a further 15 seriously wounded. The shooting began on Seitenstettengasse street, near the city’s main Synagogue.

One of the gunmen, who was described as having also been wearing a fake suicide vest, was shot dead by security personnel. It is currently believed that there may be a number of further gunmen still at large.  The deceased gunman was described by the Austrian authorities as being a sympathiser of the so-called Islamic State who had tried to travel to Syria in the past.

Despite the police stating that the incident began near the Seitenstettengasse synagogue, it is unclear whether the Vienna’s Jewish community was directly targeted at this time. Gunfire was also reported throughout the Austrian capital, in the vicinity of Fleischmarkt, Bauermarkt, Graben, Morzinplatz, Salzgries, Schwedenplatz and Stadtpark.

The attack took place whilst Vienna was enjoying the last evening before a nationwide COVID-19 curfew will effectively shut the city and wider country down for the rest of the month. Bars and restaurants were busy with people taking the opportunity to go out for the last time before December.

In the aftermath of the attack, on 3 November, the government urged residents to remain in their homes as they believed that a number of gunmen remained at large. Police have conducted a number of house-to-house raids to try and find the gunmen or accomplices, with several people already being arrested in connection to the attack.

Public transport is currently not stopping in the city’s historic 1st District, where the focus of the attack took place, schools across the city are closed and it is highly likely that most offices across the city, if they had not closed with COVID safety measures, will be shut again.

The attack bears the hallmarks of a complex attack perpetrated by an Islamist extremist group, similar in nature to the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2015 Paris attacks. In such attacks, militants seek to inflict maximum loss of life and are highly unlikely to surrender to authorities. Previous similar attacks have only come to an official end when all gunmen and associated accomplices have been arrested or shot.

Whilst the suicide vest worn by the attacker who was killed was fake, previous similar attacks have seen a number of car bombs and IEDs scattered across the city either as part of the same attack or a secondary follow up, and, as such, this will likely be one reason that the authorities are urging Viennese residents to stay at home, alongside the disclosed fact that a number of well-armed attackers are still on the loose.

Attacks are rare in Austria, especially when compared with other European countries, such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, that have seen numerous attacks in past years.

Indeed Austria is seen as one of the safest European countries to visit and reside in, with Vienna regularly coming top of rankings for best and safest cities globally to live in. Due to its former control of parts of the Balkans as Austria-Hungary, the country has one of Western Europe’s longest established minority Muslim populations.

The last major terror attack in Vienna was in 1985, when Arab terrorists attacked Israeli airline El Al’s ticket counter and check-in desk at Vienna Airport, killing two and injuring 39 others. More recently in January 2017, the Viennese police stated they had foiled an Islamist attack, and in 2014, a 14 old boy was convicted on charges of plotting to blow up  Vienna’s Westbanhof transport hub.

As such, despite the lack of attacks in recent years, Austria, like other European nations, has struggled with the rise in Islamic extremism and radicalisation. Further attacks cannot be ruled out and caution is advised in the coming days until all suspects are apprehended.

On 29 October, an attack occurred outside the Notre Dame church in Nice. At the time of this update, three people have been killed and several others injured. The assailant has been detained. In addition to the attack, a man has been shot by police in Avignon for threatening passers by with a knife, and security personnel were been attacked outside the French consulate in Jeddah today.

Macron also stated that the estimated six million Muslims (just under 10 percent of the French population) were in danger of forming a “counter-society”.

The measures, which will also be accompanied by improvements to educational, cultural and sporting services, all form part of a draft law on secularity and liberty that is expected in December. The president’s comments have resulted in a number of Islamic leaders condemning him and seen protests in numerous Muslim countries. Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani leader, Imran Khan, have accused the president of attacking Islam and Muslims.

French products have also been removed from some shops in Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar. Other Islamic countries have also called for a boycott on French goods and supermarkets. Given the prevalence of French supermarket chains, such as Carrefour, in many Islamic majority countries, such action could have wider impacts.

Tensions have been heightened in France since September when the magazine Charlie Hebdo republished cartoons of the prophet Muhammad. The article was publishing just prior to the trial of 14 people accused of being involved in the 2015 attack on the magazine’s offices. These tensions were only increased by Macron’s comments towards Islam and defence of French secularism.

Since the president’s initial comments, there have been two attacks on French soil. The first, the beheading of schoolteacher Samuel Paty by an 18-year-old Muslim Russian-born refugee of Chechen descent, and today’s attack on the Notre Dame de Nice. This does not include the thwarted potential attack in Avignon. Abroad, the French consulate was targeted in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

These incidents highlight the increased threat of Islamist attacks in France and on French interests internationally following the remarks by the French president. This threat is likely to continue into the coming days and weeks, with further attacks also likely.

Such attacks are highly likely to focus on religious institutes such as churches, as well as iconic buildings with significance to France and the French state, such as the Arc de Triomphe and government buildings. Additionally, outside of France, embassies, consulates, French businesses and French schools are all at a heightened risk of being targeted.

There is also a risk of reprisal attacks by extremist groups in France and the wider Europe. Far-right groups may look to target mosques and Muslims generally. Muslim businesses and Arabic schools may also see a heightened risk.

It is also almost certain that further unrest will occur by Muslim communities and in Islamic countries as a result of President Macron’s statements regarding Islam. Further criticism is also expected from Muslim leaders towards the French president and France, which may include the continued call to boycott French businesses and goods. Despite this, the French president is highly unlikely to backtrack on his stance regarding freedom of speech

On 20 October, footage was released online of uniformed men opening fire on a crowd of demonstrators in Lekki Suburb, Nigeria. There were also reports that soldiers were witnessed barricading the protest site moments before live rounds were fired. It is still uncertain how many were left dead.

Protests in Nigeria began on 7 October, with young Nigerian’s protesting the disbanding of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a notorious police unit that developed a reputation for engaging in suspected illegal activities including torture and extrajudicial killings. Initially created in 1982, the heavily armed unit was meant to fight car-jackings, armed robbery and corruption. The protests successfully bridged the nations large and often tense ethnic and religious divides. After several days of large-scale peaceful protests in Nigeria, and across the diaspora, and global celebrities such as Kanye West commenting, President Buhari announced on 11 October the dissolution of SARS.

Despite this protests continued, as they had evolved into wider calls from the Nigerian youth for large scale national reform. As protests continued to intensify, spread across the country, and demand large scale reforms in the country, the Nigerian Army stated it was ready to maintain law and order and deal decisively with any situation. Five days after this statement, on October 20, uniformed men fired on demonstrators

After the incident on 20 October dissipated and over the following hours, there were reports of widespread looting and vandalism, targeting police stations, and government properties, and the governor of Lagos put Lagos state under a 24-hour curfew. By the evening of 22 October, ten of the thirty-six Nigerian states were under a 24-hour curfew. Also that evening, the President broadcast a speech where he called for protestors to work with the government but didn’t acknowledge the shootings, leading to further condemnation of the government.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Despite the shooting, and the curfews, on the surface, the 5 initial aims of the EndSARS movement have been met. The Feminist Coalition, one of the main drivers of the EndSARS activism, has called for its supporters to abide by all curfews and to stay at home, this call may quell protests and lead to short term calm.

Despite this as the protests have broadened into wider calls for reform, and have politized the nations large youth population, it is likely that further protests will occur. The fact that the EndSARS protests managed to transcend the countries ethnic and religious divides shows the strength of feeling Nigerian’s had against SARS and ultimately, against the inability of the Nigerian state to provide basic services.

The EndSARS movement has become a political awakening in Nigeria, where most people are between 18 and 24, and didn’t vote in the last presidential election. The EndSARS movement is emblematic of the frustration the youth feel towards the wider instability of the Nigerian state.

In the long term, if groups involved in these recent protests can sustain momentum, it could lead to significant political change in the country when it next heads for elections. Nigeria is a bell-weather state for the wider West-Africa region where other counties face similar problems with unstable states and large youthful populations. It is likely that any successful youth-lead protests in Nigeria, such as EndSARS, could be emulated in other West African nations, especially as COVID-19 begins to diminish the ability of African states to provide stable services and opportunities to their youthful populations.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

▪ Be aware that demonstrations are currently widespread and may lead to a significant deterioration in the security environment.

▪ Large gatherings can escalate into violence with little or no warning. As such, avoid all gatherings or immediately vacate the area if caught in unrest.

▪ It is likely security forces will continue to use aggressive measures against demonstrators, which has an incidental risk to bystanders.

▪ Additionally, ensure contingency measures are in place in case of a sustained period of instability occurs or if violence escalates. This includes evacuation plans.

▪ Allow for additional time when conducting journeys, protest action and the increased police presence may result in closed or blocked roads.

▪ If travelling to or currently in Nigeria, ensure that you monitor for the latest news for the progress of protests as well as monitoring any political developments.

▪ Be aware of the increased security presence, notably in the capital Abuja and throughout Lagos. Adhere to any and all instructions issued by the security forces; opposition may result in a forceful response.

▪ Travellers are also advised to use travel-tracking technology with an intelligence feed. This should enable a traveller to be alerted of any security updates within their vicinity and to update others of their movements in case of an emergency.

▪ Be prepared for periods of limited access to internet and telecommunication services as access has been, and is likely to continue to be, blocked.

On 25 September, two people were reportedly injured, one seriously, in a knife attack in the French capital, Paris. The incident occurred near the former offices of the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. The victims are reported to be journalists working for Premières Lignes. ​

It is understood that the two victims were taking a cigarette break when the attacker assaulted them at random with a long-bladed weapon, believed to be a machete or meat cleaver. According to police sources, the weapon was discarded at the scene. The assailant was then arrested nearby outside the Bastille Opera, reportedly covered in blood.​

At the time of writing the motive for the attack is unconfirmed, however, French interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, has stated that there is ‘little doubt’ that the attack is terrorism. French terrorism police are investigating the incident. ​

Media sources have stated that the assailant is an 18 years old man allegedly from Pakistan. Sources also reported that he had been arrested a month ago for carrying a screwdriver but was not known to the police for Islamic radicalization. At the time of writing, a further seven individuals are in custody in connection with the attack. ​

Additionally, a security cordon was set up temporarily after a suspicious package was identified by police. This was cleared shortly after when it was confirmed that there were no explosives present. ​

The incident occurred at around midday along rue Nicolas Appert in the capital’s 11th arrondissement, the same scene as the mass shooting at the Charlie Hebdo offices in 2015, which left 17 people dead.​

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

In recent years France and, most notably, it’s capital have faced several deadly terrorist incidents, significantly elevating the level of security risk and required mitigations across major urban hubs. ​

It is highly likely that yesterday’s attack is linked to the Charlie Hebdo attacks of 2015, given the location, outside the magazine’s then offices. Additionally, the reactions of Islamic terrorist groups to the recent decisions made by the magazine to republish cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad led to groups such as Al-Qaeda to make explicit threats.​

In 2015 the French capital suffered a number of attacks, including the attack on the Charlie Hebdo offices and, on 13 November 2015, multiple attacks across Paris and Saint-Denis left 130 civilians dead and a further 400 injured.​

Attacks have not been limited to the capital. Notably, on 14 July 2016, a truck was driven through the main seafront promenade in Nice during Bastille Day celebrations, killing 84 people.​

In the wake of the January 2015 attacks, the French government implemented a wealth of measures, including a continuously extended State of Emergency, that extended the state capabilities to respond to attacks but did receive criticism for inadvertent legislative repercussions and threats to personal freedoms and privacy. ​

At this time, it is unlikely that France will look to reimplement the State of Emergency; however, further attacks cannot be ruled out. Attacks on Charlie Hebdo remain highly likely given the current trial over the 2015 incident and the decision to republish offensive material.​

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

Regardless of the motive of the attack, individuals should follow similar advice regardless of an assailant’s motives.​

The French government states that the terror threat level is “extremely high”. French security authorities are monitoring more than 8,000 people suspected of terrorist leanings,​

Terror attacks in France are likely to be perpetrated by self-radicalised individuals using low-tech means, such as knives and vehicles. Attacks could occur with little warning and may be indiscriminate. 

Between approximately 00:30 and 02:20 on Sunday, 6 September, at least one person was killed, and seven others were injured in a spate of stabbings that took place at four locations across Birmingham City Centre, England.

Police were first called to reports of a stabbing in Constitution Hill at around 00:30 local time. Shortly after, the West Midlands Ambulance Service received an initial call to Colmore Row and Livery Street at 00:40. Ambulance crews then attended to two further incidents in Irving Street and Hurst Street – the latter being where the city’s Gay Village meets the Chinese Quarter – at 01:52 and 02:00 respectively.

Despite there being no early indications the stabbings were terrorism, gang or disorder-related, they all appeared to be linked, prompting West Midlands Police to declare a ‘major incident’ in the city. No arrests were made initially, triggering a murder inquiry and a manhunt in the city.

Emergency services were quick to deploy to the incident scenes, with those injured being taken to hospital. Of the seven people injured, two remain in critical condition, while two others have been discharged.

The suspect is reported to have targeted people at random, according to a statement by police, with Chief Superintendent Steve Graham stated that there was no evidence to suggest that the stabbings were a hate crime.

On 7 September, police announced that they had detained a suspect in connection with the attacks. However, at the time of writing, details continue to remain unclear regarding the individual’s motives.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer both tweeted to thank the emergency services for their efforts and expressed their sympathy for those affected.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT: 

The actual motives for the attack remain unclear. It is hoped that the arrest of the individual will allow police to discover the motive for the seemingly random attack.

Despite police stating that the attack was not terrorism-related, previous similar attacks in the United Kingdom have been perpetrated by radicalised lone-wolf individuals using knives to attack members of the public indiscriminately.

Most recently, in June, a man attacked and killed three people in a park in Reading before being detained by police. The incident, which also involved an individual with a knife, was later declared a terrorist attack. Six days later, a stabbing occurred in Glasgow, this incident was not described as a terrorist incident.

The incident did, however, occur in part in an area of Birmingham with a strong LGBT+ community. There is the possibility that the attack was hate-motivated, targeting LGBT+ individuals, despite the apparent randomness that the victims were targeted.

Additionally, eyewitnesses have described the attacker walking calmly away after repeatedly stabbing one of the victims. Such a reaction opens the possibility that the attacker was suffering from an acute mental health condition. However, past studies have shown that people experiencing severe mental health episodes are far more likely to harm themselves than others.

There is also the possibility that the attacker was under the influence of drugs, with the location of the attacks in proximity to the city’s nightlife scene, where recreational drug use is prevalent.

Questions have also been directed at West Midlands Police, with many asking why the attacker was able to conduct an attack uncontested in four parts of the city’s centre over a 90-minute period. Birmingham city centre has a large number of CCTV cameras and is normally well policed. The police were also slow on releasing an image of the suspect, giving him time to escape.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE: 

Despite police ruling out terrorism as a reason for the attack, individuals should follow similar advice regardless of an assailant’s motives.

The UK government states that the terror threat level is ‘substantial’, meaning a terror attack is likely. Islamist extremists continue to view the UK as a legitimate and high-profile target for attack. Terror attacks in the UK are likely to be perpetrated by self-radicalised individuals using low-tech means, such as knives and vehicles. Attacks could occur with little warning and may be indiscriminate.

During a televised address, Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita resigned. The announcement comes after the president was detained by soldiers on Tuesday, 18 August. The country’s parliament has also been dissolved, plunging the country into political uncertainty. It remains unclear if the military is now officially in charge of the country.

The news of the president’s departure was met with jubilation by protesters in the country’s capital. Footage on social media and media websites show people dancing and cheering on military vehicles and soldiers as they move around Bamako. The Ministry of Justice building was also set alight in celebration.

All land and air borders in the country have been closed and a curfew has been implemented from 09:00 to 17:00 until further notice. Military leaders have pledged to set up a civilian transitional government, inviting the country’s civil society and political parties to join them to prepare for elections.

The driving force behind the apparent coup appears to have stemmed from mutinying soldiers who took control of the Kati military camp. The soldiers then moved on the capital and arrested the president, Prime Minister Boubou Cisse and other senior government officials. The numbers of those involved remains undetermined as well as who will now take the leadership of the government.

The events came following a long political crisis where opposition protesters have taken to the streets demanding the departure of Keita. Protesters have accused Keita of allowing the economy to collapse thus worsening the security situation across the country.

Foreign embassies have announced that citizens/travellers based in Bamako should remain indoors where possible and avoid protests, especially within the capital. The coup has been condemned by the European Union, African Union and the United Nations, as well as representatives of several countries.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Details surrounding the coup remain unclear, the mutiny appears to have started in Kati, similarly to the coup that occurred in 2012. The mutiny also comes off the back of ongoing protests that began on 5 June.

The country’s protests had been growing in recent weeks, with demonstrators complaining that not enough has been done to address the issues that the country faces. The protesters pointed fingers at those in charge for failing to adequately address the country’s struggling economy, improve job prospects, and fight corruption and the ongoing insurgency that is not only destabilising the country, but also the wider region.

Keita has, in 2013 when he won election by a landslide, vowed a zero-tolerance for corruption. However, the former president’s popularity has faded over time. While he was reelected in the 2018 presidential elections, they were marred by low turnout and fraud allegations, which created frustration among the public, particularly among the country’s youth.

The pressure on Keita has only grown since the beginning of the protests in June. With the fight against insurgents dragging on, despite French military support, poor economic prospects and violent protests, the former president’s position was becoming untenable. Indeed, regional mediators had arrived in Bamako to try and ease the unrest; however, the military decided to step in.

The coup represents a major setback for France. Paris has invested heavily in the country both financially and militarily with over $1 billion in funding and 5,000 soldiers. Many Malians are now calling on the French to withdraw their troops following the perceived lack of progress.

The instability created by the coup also heightens the risk that Islamic extremist insurgents and Tuareg rebels may look to exploit the situation. With the Malian military struggling to maintain control over large parts of the country, France has recently increased its efforts and is seeking increased European military support.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE