On 1 February, Myanmar’s military seized control of the country in a coup d’état that saw civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior government officials detained in a series of early morning raids. Following the coup, a video address broadcast on military-run television network confirmed power had been handed to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and that a year-long state of emergency had been enacted.

Mobile internet connections and some phone services have been disrupted in major cities, especially in the largest city, Yangon, and the capital, Naypyidaw. The country’s state broadcaster MRTV is also reportedly off-air, citing technical difficulties.

Separately, on 30 January, the country had extended its restrictions on international flights as result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the military has since taken control of the country’s airports and there are unconfirmed reports that border points are closed. Additionally, roadblocks and military checkpoints both likely in the coming days.

The coup comes after several days of escalating tensions between the civilian government and military over the results of November 2020’s election. The military-backed opposition Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) performed poorly in the vote, which was won comprehensively by the National League for Democracy (NLD) party led by Ms Suu Kyi.

The USDP refused to recognise the results and the military conducted a campaign to discredit the elections, citing electoral fraud and voter irregularities, as well as threatening to “take action” and abolish the constitution in January.

The situation had appeared to have calmed over the weekend with the military appearing to have stepped back from the coup threat and stating that it would abide by the law and protect the constitution. Despite this, the military launched the coup during the early hours of 1 February, quickly detaining key politicians and declaring emergency military rule.

The military’s actions have sparked condemnation from the international community with Australia’s Foreign Minister expressing concern and calling on the military to “respect the rule of law, to resolve disputes through lawful mechanisms and to release immediately all civilian leaders”. The EU, UK, US and United Nations have all also condemned the military coup.

The coup is a blow for the democracy movement in Myanmar, bringing the country back under military rule, which it had previously been between 1962 and 2011.

For observers, the timing of the coup fits, with the detentions coming on the morning when the result of the election would have been enshrined, with all political leaders gathered to mark the occasion. However, it is unclear what the military has to gain. Despite the poor performance in the election, the military continued to wield strong influence and, thanks to the 2008 constitution, are guaranteed three key ministries and 25 percent of the seats in parliament. Indeed, the military never really submitted to civilian rule.

It is likely then that the landslide NLD victory and widespread popularity has been seen as a threat to the military’s position. Despite the control of the country’s political landscape that the military enjoys, notably the controversial 2008 constitution, it had, from its perspective, lost significant control of the political process.

Going forward, unrest in Myanmar should be expected. Protests have already occurred in Tokyo and Bangkok as a result of the coup and the detention of Nobel Peace Prize winner Ms Suu Kyi. The NLD have also stated that Suu Kyi was calling on people to protest against the military coup. Should a protest gain strength, there remains a risk that the crisis could escalate, with protesters pitched directly against the military.

An important factor for the crisis will be China’s stance. Beijing sees political stability as crucial for its Belt and Road Initiative. The country also has strong ties with the NLD, endorsing their victory and second term. However, it remains unlikely that China will impose much diplomatic pressure on the country.

Please contact us on info@solaceglobal.com or on +44 (0) 1202 308 810 if you require advice or assistance.

Vienna, Austria – 3 November 2020 – Terror Risk

Several gunmen carrying assault rifles have opened fire in a number of locations in central Vienna in an apparent complex terror attack that has left at least four civilians dead and a further 15 seriously wounded. The shooting began on Seitenstettengasse street, near the city’s main Synagogue.

One of the gunmen, who was described as having also been wearing a fake suicide vest, was shot dead by security personnel. It is currently believed that there may be a number of further gunmen still at large.  The deceased gunman was described by the Austrian authorities as being a sympathiser of the so-called Islamic State who had tried to travel to Syria in the past.

Despite the police stating that the incident began near the Seitenstettengasse synagogue, it is unclear whether the Vienna’s Jewish community was directly targeted at this time. Gunfire was also reported throughout the Austrian capital, in the vicinity of Fleischmarkt, Bauermarkt, Graben, Morzinplatz, Salzgries, Schwedenplatz and Stadtpark.

The attack took place whilst Vienna was enjoying the last evening before a nationwide COVID-19 curfew will effectively shut the city and wider country down for the rest of the month. Bars and restaurants were busy with people taking the opportunity to go out for the last time before December.

In the aftermath of the attack, on 3 November, the government urged residents to remain in their homes as they believed that a number of gunmen remained at large. Police have conducted a number of house-to-house raids to try and find the gunmen or accomplices, with several people already being arrested in connection to the attack.

Public transport is currently not stopping in the city’s historic 1st District, where the focus of the attack took place, schools across the city are closed and it is highly likely that most offices across the city, if they had not closed with COVID safety measures, will be shut again.

The attack bears the hallmarks of a complex attack perpetrated by an Islamist extremist group, similar in nature to the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2015 Paris attacks. In such attacks, militants seek to inflict maximum loss of life and are highly unlikely to surrender to authorities. Previous similar attacks have only come to an official end when all gunmen and associated accomplices have been arrested or shot.

Whilst the suicide vest worn by the attacker who was killed was fake, previous similar attacks have seen a number of car bombs and IEDs scattered across the city either as part of the same attack or a secondary follow up, and, as such, this will likely be one reason that the authorities are urging Viennese residents to stay at home, alongside the disclosed fact that a number of well-armed attackers are still on the loose.

Attacks are rare in Austria, especially when compared with other European countries, such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, that have seen numerous attacks in past years.

Indeed Austria is seen as one of the safest European countries to visit and reside in, with Vienna regularly coming top of rankings for best and safest cities globally to live in. Due to its former control of parts of the Balkans as Austria-Hungary, the country has one of Western Europe’s longest established minority Muslim populations.

The last major terror attack in Vienna was in 1985, when Arab terrorists attacked Israeli airline El Al’s ticket counter and check-in desk at Vienna Airport, killing two and injuring 39 others. More recently in January 2017, the Viennese police stated they had foiled an Islamist attack, and in 2014, a 14 old boy was convicted on charges of plotting to blow up  Vienna’s Westbanhof transport hub.

As such, despite the lack of attacks in recent years, Austria, like other European nations, has struggled with the rise in Islamic extremism and radicalisation. Further attacks cannot be ruled out and caution is advised in the coming days until all suspects are apprehended.

On 29 October, an attack occurred outside the Notre Dame church in Nice. At the time of this update, three people have been killed and several others injured. The assailant has been detained. In addition to the attack, a man has been shot by police in Avignon for threatening passers by with a knife, and security personnel were been attacked outside the French consulate in Jeddah today.

Macron also stated that the estimated six million Muslims (just under 10 percent of the French population) were in danger of forming a “counter-society”.

The measures, which will also be accompanied by improvements to educational, cultural and sporting services, all form part of a draft law on secularity and liberty that is expected in December. The president’s comments have resulted in a number of Islamic leaders condemning him and seen protests in numerous Muslim countries. Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani leader, Imran Khan, have accused the president of attacking Islam and Muslims.

French products have also been removed from some shops in Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar. Other Islamic countries have also called for a boycott on French goods and supermarkets. Given the prevalence of French supermarket chains, such as Carrefour, in many Islamic majority countries, such action could have wider impacts.

Tensions have been heightened in France since September when the magazine Charlie Hebdo republished cartoons of the prophet Muhammad. The article was publishing just prior to the trial of 14 people accused of being involved in the 2015 attack on the magazine’s offices. These tensions were only increased by Macron’s comments towards Islam and defence of French secularism.

Since the president’s initial comments, there have been two attacks on French soil. The first, the beheading of schoolteacher Samuel Paty by an 18-year-old Muslim Russian-born refugee of Chechen descent, and today’s attack on the Notre Dame de Nice. This does not include the thwarted potential attack in Avignon. Abroad, the French consulate was targeted in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

These incidents highlight the increased threat of Islamist attacks in France and on French interests internationally following the remarks by the French president. This threat is likely to continue into the coming days and weeks, with further attacks also likely.

Such attacks are highly likely to focus on religious institutes such as churches, as well as iconic buildings with significance to France and the French state, such as the Arc de Triomphe and government buildings. Additionally, outside of France, embassies, consulates, French businesses and French schools are all at a heightened risk of being targeted.

There is also a risk of reprisal attacks by extremist groups in France and the wider Europe. Far-right groups may look to target mosques and Muslims generally. Muslim businesses and Arabic schools may also see a heightened risk.

It is also almost certain that further unrest will occur by Muslim communities and in Islamic countries as a result of President Macron’s statements regarding Islam. Further criticism is also expected from Muslim leaders towards the French president and France, which may include the continued call to boycott French businesses and goods. Despite this, the French president is highly unlikely to backtrack on his stance regarding freedom of speech

On 20 October, footage was released online of uniformed men opening fire on a crowd of demonstrators in Lekki Suburb, Nigeria. There were also reports that soldiers were witnessed barricading the protest site moments before live rounds were fired. It is still uncertain how many were left dead.

Protests in Nigeria began on 7 October, with young Nigerian’s protesting the disbanding of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS), a notorious police unit that developed a reputation for engaging in suspected illegal activities including torture and extrajudicial killings. Initially created in 1982, the heavily armed unit was meant to fight car-jackings, armed robbery and corruption. The protests successfully bridged the nations large and often tense ethnic and religious divides. After several days of large-scale peaceful protests in Nigeria, and across the diaspora, and global celebrities such as Kanye West commenting, President Buhari announced on 11 October the dissolution of SARS.

Despite this protests continued, as they had evolved into wider calls from the Nigerian youth for large scale national reform. As protests continued to intensify, spread across the country, and demand large scale reforms in the country, the Nigerian Army stated it was ready to maintain law and order and deal decisively with any situation. Five days after this statement, on October 20, uniformed men fired on demonstrators

After the incident on 20 October dissipated and over the following hours, there were reports of widespread looting and vandalism, targeting police stations, and government properties, and the governor of Lagos put Lagos state under a 24-hour curfew. By the evening of 22 October, ten of the thirty-six Nigerian states were under a 24-hour curfew. Also that evening, the President broadcast a speech where he called for protestors to work with the government but didn’t acknowledge the shootings, leading to further condemnation of the government.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Despite the shooting, and the curfews, on the surface, the 5 initial aims of the EndSARS movement have been met. The Feminist Coalition, one of the main drivers of the EndSARS activism, has called for its supporters to abide by all curfews and to stay at home, this call may quell protests and lead to short term calm.

Despite this as the protests have broadened into wider calls for reform, and have politized the nations large youth population, it is likely that further protests will occur. The fact that the EndSARS protests managed to transcend the countries ethnic and religious divides shows the strength of feeling Nigerian’s had against SARS and ultimately, against the inability of the Nigerian state to provide basic services.

The EndSARS movement has become a political awakening in Nigeria, where most people are between 18 and 24, and didn’t vote in the last presidential election. The EndSARS movement is emblematic of the frustration the youth feel towards the wider instability of the Nigerian state.

In the long term, if groups involved in these recent protests can sustain momentum, it could lead to significant political change in the country when it next heads for elections. Nigeria is a bell-weather state for the wider West-Africa region where other counties face similar problems with unstable states and large youthful populations. It is likely that any successful youth-lead protests in Nigeria, such as EndSARS, could be emulated in other West African nations, especially as COVID-19 begins to diminish the ability of African states to provide stable services and opportunities to their youthful populations.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

▪ Be aware that demonstrations are currently widespread and may lead to a significant deterioration in the security environment.

▪ Large gatherings can escalate into violence with little or no warning. As such, avoid all gatherings or immediately vacate the area if caught in unrest.

▪ It is likely security forces will continue to use aggressive measures against demonstrators, which has an incidental risk to bystanders.

▪ Additionally, ensure contingency measures are in place in case of a sustained period of instability occurs or if violence escalates. This includes evacuation plans.

▪ Allow for additional time when conducting journeys, protest action and the increased police presence may result in closed or blocked roads.

▪ If travelling to or currently in Nigeria, ensure that you monitor for the latest news for the progress of protests as well as monitoring any political developments.

▪ Be aware of the increased security presence, notably in the capital Abuja and throughout Lagos. Adhere to any and all instructions issued by the security forces; opposition may result in a forceful response.

▪ Travellers are also advised to use travel-tracking technology with an intelligence feed. This should enable a traveller to be alerted of any security updates within their vicinity and to update others of their movements in case of an emergency.

▪ Be prepared for periods of limited access to internet and telecommunication services as access has been, and is likely to continue to be, blocked.

On 25 September, two people were reportedly injured, one seriously, in a knife attack in the French capital, Paris. The incident occurred near the former offices of the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. The victims are reported to be journalists working for Premières Lignes. ​

It is understood that the two victims were taking a cigarette break when the attacker assaulted them at random with a long-bladed weapon, believed to be a machete or meat cleaver. According to police sources, the weapon was discarded at the scene. The assailant was then arrested nearby outside the Bastille Opera, reportedly covered in blood.​

At the time of writing the motive for the attack is unconfirmed, however, French interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, has stated that there is ‘little doubt’ that the attack is terrorism. French terrorism police are investigating the incident. ​

Media sources have stated that the assailant is an 18 years old man allegedly from Pakistan. Sources also reported that he had been arrested a month ago for carrying a screwdriver but was not known to the police for Islamic radicalization. At the time of writing, a further seven individuals are in custody in connection with the attack. ​

Additionally, a security cordon was set up temporarily after a suspicious package was identified by police. This was cleared shortly after when it was confirmed that there were no explosives present. ​

The incident occurred at around midday along rue Nicolas Appert in the capital’s 11th arrondissement, the same scene as the mass shooting at the Charlie Hebdo offices in 2015, which left 17 people dead.​

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

In recent years France and, most notably, it’s capital have faced several deadly terrorist incidents, significantly elevating the level of security risk and required mitigations across major urban hubs. ​

It is highly likely that yesterday’s attack is linked to the Charlie Hebdo attacks of 2015, given the location, outside the magazine’s then offices. Additionally, the reactions of Islamic terrorist groups to the recent decisions made by the magazine to republish cartoons depicting the Prophet Muhammad led to groups such as Al-Qaeda to make explicit threats.​

In 2015 the French capital suffered a number of attacks, including the attack on the Charlie Hebdo offices and, on 13 November 2015, multiple attacks across Paris and Saint-Denis left 130 civilians dead and a further 400 injured.​

Attacks have not been limited to the capital. Notably, on 14 July 2016, a truck was driven through the main seafront promenade in Nice during Bastille Day celebrations, killing 84 people.​

In the wake of the January 2015 attacks, the French government implemented a wealth of measures, including a continuously extended State of Emergency, that extended the state capabilities to respond to attacks but did receive criticism for inadvertent legislative repercussions and threats to personal freedoms and privacy. ​

At this time, it is unlikely that France will look to reimplement the State of Emergency; however, further attacks cannot be ruled out. Attacks on Charlie Hebdo remain highly likely given the current trial over the 2015 incident and the decision to republish offensive material.​

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

Regardless of the motive of the attack, individuals should follow similar advice regardless of an assailant’s motives.​

The French government states that the terror threat level is “extremely high”. French security authorities are monitoring more than 8,000 people suspected of terrorist leanings,​

Terror attacks in France are likely to be perpetrated by self-radicalised individuals using low-tech means, such as knives and vehicles. Attacks could occur with little warning and may be indiscriminate. 

Between approximately 00:30 and 02:20 on Sunday, 6 September, at least one person was killed, and seven others were injured in a spate of stabbings that took place at four locations across Birmingham City Centre, England.

Police were first called to reports of a stabbing in Constitution Hill at around 00:30 local time. Shortly after, the West Midlands Ambulance Service received an initial call to Colmore Row and Livery Street at 00:40. Ambulance crews then attended to two further incidents in Irving Street and Hurst Street – the latter being where the city’s Gay Village meets the Chinese Quarter – at 01:52 and 02:00 respectively.

Despite there being no early indications the stabbings were terrorism, gang or disorder-related, they all appeared to be linked, prompting West Midlands Police to declare a ‘major incident’ in the city. No arrests were made initially, triggering a murder inquiry and a manhunt in the city.

Emergency services were quick to deploy to the incident scenes, with those injured being taken to hospital. Of the seven people injured, two remain in critical condition, while two others have been discharged.

The suspect is reported to have targeted people at random, according to a statement by police, with Chief Superintendent Steve Graham stated that there was no evidence to suggest that the stabbings were a hate crime.

On 7 September, police announced that they had detained a suspect in connection with the attacks. However, at the time of writing, details continue to remain unclear regarding the individual’s motives.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer both tweeted to thank the emergency services for their efforts and expressed their sympathy for those affected.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT: 

The actual motives for the attack remain unclear. It is hoped that the arrest of the individual will allow police to discover the motive for the seemingly random attack.

Despite police stating that the attack was not terrorism-related, previous similar attacks in the United Kingdom have been perpetrated by radicalised lone-wolf individuals using knives to attack members of the public indiscriminately.

Most recently, in June, a man attacked and killed three people in a park in Reading before being detained by police. The incident, which also involved an individual with a knife, was later declared a terrorist attack. Six days later, a stabbing occurred in Glasgow, this incident was not described as a terrorist incident.

The incident did, however, occur in part in an area of Birmingham with a strong LGBT+ community. There is the possibility that the attack was hate-motivated, targeting LGBT+ individuals, despite the apparent randomness that the victims were targeted.

Additionally, eyewitnesses have described the attacker walking calmly away after repeatedly stabbing one of the victims. Such a reaction opens the possibility that the attacker was suffering from an acute mental health condition. However, past studies have shown that people experiencing severe mental health episodes are far more likely to harm themselves than others.

There is also the possibility that the attacker was under the influence of drugs, with the location of the attacks in proximity to the city’s nightlife scene, where recreational drug use is prevalent.

Questions have also been directed at West Midlands Police, with many asking why the attacker was able to conduct an attack uncontested in four parts of the city’s centre over a 90-minute period. Birmingham city centre has a large number of CCTV cameras and is normally well policed. The police were also slow on releasing an image of the suspect, giving him time to escape.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE: 

Despite police ruling out terrorism as a reason for the attack, individuals should follow similar advice regardless of an assailant’s motives.

The UK government states that the terror threat level is ‘substantial’, meaning a terror attack is likely. Islamist extremists continue to view the UK as a legitimate and high-profile target for attack. Terror attacks in the UK are likely to be perpetrated by self-radicalised individuals using low-tech means, such as knives and vehicles. Attacks could occur with little warning and may be indiscriminate.

During a televised address, Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita resigned. The announcement comes after the president was detained by soldiers on Tuesday, 18 August. The country’s parliament has also been dissolved, plunging the country into political uncertainty. It remains unclear if the military is now officially in charge of the country.

The news of the president’s departure was met with jubilation by protesters in the country’s capital. Footage on social media and media websites show people dancing and cheering on military vehicles and soldiers as they move around Bamako. The Ministry of Justice building was also set alight in celebration.

All land and air borders in the country have been closed and a curfew has been implemented from 09:00 to 17:00 until further notice. Military leaders have pledged to set up a civilian transitional government, inviting the country’s civil society and political parties to join them to prepare for elections.

The driving force behind the apparent coup appears to have stemmed from mutinying soldiers who took control of the Kati military camp. The soldiers then moved on the capital and arrested the president, Prime Minister Boubou Cisse and other senior government officials. The numbers of those involved remains undetermined as well as who will now take the leadership of the government.

The events came following a long political crisis where opposition protesters have taken to the streets demanding the departure of Keita. Protesters have accused Keita of allowing the economy to collapse thus worsening the security situation across the country.

Foreign embassies have announced that citizens/travellers based in Bamako should remain indoors where possible and avoid protests, especially within the capital. The coup has been condemned by the European Union, African Union and the United Nations, as well as representatives of several countries.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Details surrounding the coup remain unclear, the mutiny appears to have started in Kati, similarly to the coup that occurred in 2012. The mutiny also comes off the back of ongoing protests that began on 5 June.

The country’s protests had been growing in recent weeks, with demonstrators complaining that not enough has been done to address the issues that the country faces. The protesters pointed fingers at those in charge for failing to adequately address the country’s struggling economy, improve job prospects, and fight corruption and the ongoing insurgency that is not only destabilising the country, but also the wider region.

Keita has, in 2013 when he won election by a landslide, vowed a zero-tolerance for corruption. However, the former president’s popularity has faded over time. While he was reelected in the 2018 presidential elections, they were marred by low turnout and fraud allegations, which created frustration among the public, particularly among the country’s youth.

The pressure on Keita has only grown since the beginning of the protests in June. With the fight against insurgents dragging on, despite French military support, poor economic prospects and violent protests, the former president’s position was becoming untenable. Indeed, regional mediators had arrived in Bamako to try and ease the unrest; however, the military decided to step in.

The coup represents a major setback for France. Paris has invested heavily in the country both financially and militarily with over $1 billion in funding and 5,000 soldiers. Many Malians are now calling on the French to withdraw their troops following the perceived lack of progress.

The instability created by the coup also heightens the risk that Islamic extremist insurgents and Tuareg rebels may look to exploit the situation. With the Malian military struggling to maintain control over large parts of the country, France has recently increased its efforts and is seeking increased European military support.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

A significant explosion has killed more than 100 people and left more than 4,000 injured in Beirut on Tuesday, 4 August. The blast originated in the city’s port area and appears to have occurred following an industrial fire. At this time, the blast seems to be accidental, possibly the result of unsafely stored ammonium nitrate. However, details are continuing to emerge.

Investigations are underway with the cause of the fire remaining unclear at this time. However, it has been stressed that officials do not believe there will be any further explosions nor are they currently treating the blast as an attack.

Images released from the area immediately surrounding the epicentre of the blast show buildings almost completely destroyed. Indeed, residents are reporting blown-in windows over 15 kilometres away from the location of the explosion. Access to the port area of the city remains difficult due to debris blocking access to roads, collapsed buildings and ongoing relief work.

The current death toll reflects the sheer size of the blast, akin to a heavy ordinance. Video footage capture showed the shockwave hitting onlookers kilometres away, seconds after the explosion had actually occurred. More bodies are expected to be found in the coming hours and days as rescue work continues.

The high injury rate, however, was in part augmented by the unique circumstance of the large fire that preceded the blast. Many were watching the large fire from their windows, filming and taking photographs of the smoke plume when the blast occurred, resulting an increased number of injuries as the glass shattered in the shockwave. The blast also occurred a short walk from Beirut’s shopping and nightlife districts, which would have been busy at 18:00, when the blast occurred.

The Lebanese Prime Minister has called the unsafe storage of the material “unacceptable” and has called for an inquiry into the cause of the explosion.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The explosion registered the equivalent of a magnitude 3.3 earthquake and its shockwave was reportedly felt in Cyprus. Large parts of the area surrounding the Beirut Port have sustained significant damage, with some buildings being almost completely destroyed. Further afield, in other parts of the city, the blast damage have rendered several homes unliveable, with their windows and doors shattered and blown down.

The full extent of the damage remains unclear at this time, many buildings overlooking the port appear structurally compromised, including the president’s official residences, headquarters of former PM Saad Hariri and the CNN’s bureau in the city’s downtown.

The high casualty rate is also unsurprising, largely due to people gathering outside to film and upload videos of the fire on social media. The vast majority of hospital admissions were for glass related injuries, which quickly overwhelmed Beirut’s hospitals and emergency services.

The incident has also the potential to overwhelm the country’s government. Lebanon is already suffering from a severe economic crisis;  the country’s inflation reached a high of 56 percent in May. Beirut has frequently seen protests over the country’s economic situation, the deteriorating living standards, as well as recurring power cuts. The cost of the damage caused by the blast only adds to the country’s economic distress.

The blast has also resulted in significant damage to the port’s granaries, which held about 85 percent of the country’s cereals. Lebanon was already suffering from a bread shortage as a result of the economic situation.

Finally, on Friday, 7 August, a UN-backed court that is trying four Hezbollah suspects over the killing of  the country’s former leader Rafik al-Hariri is set to deliver its verdict. The court’s decision has the potential to further destabilise the already precarious situation.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE 

At Solace, our response team established the safety and whereabouts of client travellers and supported them during this incident. If you require advice or assistance related to this incident, or other, please email our specialists on info@solaceglobal.com

For emergencies, please call +44 (0) 1202 795 801.

CASE STUDY

At least 81 people have been killed in a wave of unrest that erupted in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and the surrounding Oromia region following the murder of a prominent musician of the Oromo ethnic group.

The musician, Haacaalu Hundeessa, died on Monday in a targeted gun attack in Addis Ababa. On Tuesday, protests erupted in Ethiopia’s capital and in the Oromia state, as thousands of people took to the streets to express their anger over his death.

In Addis Ababa, demonstrators rallied in the streets, blocking roads, chanting slogans and brandishing Oromia flags. The protests resulted in clashes as police fired live ammunition to disperse large crowds.

Clashes between Oromo activists and other ethnic groups were also reported. Protests spread to other cities and towns in neighbouring Oromia region. Violent incidents were reported in Adama, Chiro, Dera, Shashemene, Jimma, and Nekemte.

On Wednesday, violence continued for the second consecutive day. Clashes reportedly broke out after a group led by Jawar Mohammed, a prominent Oromo leader and founder of satellite television channel Oromia Media Network (OMN), intercepted security officials transporting the singer’s body to Ambo and attempted to return it to Addis Ababa. Jawar Mohammed as well as Oromo Federalist Coalition (OFC) leader, Bekele Gerba, were among 35 people arrested during these clashes. Several injuries and one fatality were also reported.

Details remain scarce as, in a move to curb the protests from spreading, authorities shut down internet and telecommunication services.

The Ethiopian Military has been deployed nationwide due to the risk of continued protests over the coming days. At the time of writing, clashes are understood to be ongoing as a funeral service is held for Haacaalu Hundeessa.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Ethiopia is a multi-ethnic nation that counts more than 80 diverse groups and over 200 dialects. Although these tribes have been coexisting for centuries, inter-ethnic conflict and violence are deep-rooted and clashes have occurred for decades.

Indeed, over the years, internal conflicts and the rise in communal violence have led to almost 3 million people becoming internally displaced. The country’s internal displacement figures are also the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa according to the IDMC.

The Oromo, the country’s largest ethnic group, which makes up a third of the population, have long protested and claimed to be marginalised. In 2018, Oromo-led anti-government protests resulted in the resignation of Ethiopia’s former Prime Minister and Abiy Ahmed’s subsequent rise to power. Even though the country is now under the administration of the first Oromo leader, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is still facing continuous ethnic tension and intra-state disputes across this diverse country.

In November 2019, 78 people were killed across the Oromia region in a chaotic wave of violence that began as anti-government protests but devolved into clashes fuelled by ethnicity and religion.

Haacaaluu Hundeessaa, a former political prisoner, was known for his resistance songs that focused on the rights of the Oromo ethnic group. Days before his assassination, he reportedly spoke on the Oromia Media Network, where he criticised the government and denounced the unlawful detention of Oromo activists. He was also the symbol of the 2018 anti-government protests that resulted in Hailemariam Desalegn’s resignation.

His assassination comes at a time of rising tensions due to COVID-19 restrictions and the government’s decision to postpone the country’s planned August parliamentary election. In the past, violence and unrest have escalated after the murder of Oromo activists and leaders. As such, there are mounting concerns that such unrest may now begin impacting the country again and, possibly, develop into ethnic clashes.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

SITUATION SUMMARY

On Friday, 26 June, six people were injured in a knife attack at the Park Inn by Radisson Hotel in central Glasgow, Scotland, in the United Kingdom. A male suspect was shot dead by specialist firearms police officers at the scene.

The six victims are all being treated in hospital, including one police officer, who is said to be in a “critical but stable condition” after suffering knife wounds. Despite earlier reports of three fatalities, the only person killed is understood to have been the assailant.

Armed police teams were called to the hotel at around 12:50 local time after reports of a stabbing and arrived on the scene within two minutes.

Video footage showed armed police entering the building as several people emerged with their hands raised. Eyewitness immediately reported a number of casualties being evacuated on stretchers after police had cleared the building, fatally shooting the suspect. Residents were ordered to stay in their homes and lock their doors.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon condemned the attack and stated that it was not being treated as terrorism-related at this time. Police have also stated that the incident is now contained and that there is no further threat to the public. Armed officers have sealed off part of West George Street amid the ongoing investigation.

The Park Inn Hotel had been housing a number of refugees and asylum seekers in recent months. The vulnerable individuals were rehoused from their previous accommodations to protect them during the COVID-19 pandemic. The motive of the attack remains unclear at this time, with media reports that the assailant may have been an asylum seeker.

The Scottish Police Federation has announced that an internal police review will be conducted into the circumstances of the incident, and the use of a firearm by an officer will lead to an investigation held by an independent commissioner.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Knife attacks occur with some frequency in the United Kingdom, though incidents of this nature remain fairly uncommon. Less than a week prior to the Glasgow attack, another fatal stabbing incident occurred in Reading, where three people died from knife wounds in Forbury Gardens park.

The Reading attack, which was declared a terrorism-incident was the third major terrorist attack since the UK downgraded its official terrorism threat level from “severe” to “substantial”; meaning that attacks remain likely but there is no intelligence of an immediate risk to life.

While the most recent high-profile knife attack in Glasgow has not been designated as terror-related, though the investigation remains underway, and it remains possible, despite the announcement from Nicola Sturgeon, that the Glasgow attack may be reclassified as a terrorist incident.

Knife crime has become a hot-button in the United Kingdom. London, in particular, has gained notoriety for the high frequency of stabbing incidents.

Bladed instruments represent the weapon of choice for would-be attackers and criminals in the United Kingdom. Knives are easily acquired, with virtually no barriers to purchase, as opposed to hard-to-obtain materials such as explosives that require expertise to handle and set up, or firearms that are subject to strict control laws.

As such, knives have been utilised by terrorists to carry out multiple deadly attacks, such as the recent London Bridge attack of 2019. Such attacks are extremely difficult for the authorities to prevent, and they can easily be carried out by lone actors, normally in conjunction with vehicles used to ram passers-by.

However, as evidenced by the Glasgow attack, police and other emergency services are able to respond rapidly to such situations, limiting their potential to cause mass casualties.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

On Saturday, 20 June, three people were killed and three others sustained severe wounds in a stabbing attack in Reading’s Forbury Gardens park (around 60 kilometres west of London).

Emergency services were called to the scene at approximately 19:00 local time following reports of multiple people being stabbed. Within minutes, they blocked several roads in the area and two air ambulances landed nearby.

A 25-year-old man, Khairi Saadallah, was chased, tackled and detained by police officers 5 minutes after the initial 999 call. He was then arrested on suspicion of murder. He was then re-arrested while in custody under Section 41 of the Terrorism Act 2000.

The incident occurred about three hours after supporters of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) gathered peacefully for a demonstration at Forbury Gardens. Police have announced that there was no connection between the two events.

On 21 June, the authorities declared the attack a terrorist incident and reported that counter-terrorism units and security services will support Thames Valley Police with the investigation. Moreover, it was confirmed that there was no credible threat or intelligence to suggest any further attacks.

Authorities also announced that they were not looking for any other people in connection to the attack, as intelligence suggested that the suspect acted alone. Preliminary reports indicate that the attacker is thought to be a Libyan national.

Chief Constable John Campbell, of Thames Valley Police, stated: “incidents of this nature are very rare, though I know that will be of little comfort to those involved and understand the concern that this incident will have caused amongst our local community”.

Residual police cordons and further operations to investigate the incident are possible in the Reading area in the coming days.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Attacks of this natures, while rare, are not uncommon in the United Kingdom. This is the third major incident since the UK downgraded its official terrorism threat level from “severe” to “substantial”, which means that attacks remain likely but there is no intelligence of an immediate risk to life.

The most prominent driver of terrorist events in Europe, since the turn of the century, is Islamic extremism. While attacks in 2005, the 7/7 bombings, involved a series of coordinated suicide attacks targeting London’s public transport network, recent attacks have largely involved lone-wolf, low sophistication, knife and vehicle ramming attacks.

Indeed, in the past two years since the 2018 Westminster car ramming, knife attacks have become the most common form of terrorist attack in the UK, with a knife assault occurring in Manchester in December 2018, an attempted stabbing in January 2019, the 2019 London Bridge Stabbing in late November last year and an attack in Streatham, London in February 2020.

Normally, attacks of this nature are claimed by a terrorist group, or the attacker pledges allegiance in some way prior to the incident. At the time of writing, neither has occurred nor been uncovered by police, but investigations are ongoing.

In the aftermath of the event, armed Counter Terrorist Specialist Firearms Officers raided a block of flats in Basingstoke Road in Reading where the suspect was reportedly living. As such, further information regarding Khairi Saadallah’s motives is likely to be disclosed in the coming days and weeks.

It has also been reported that the suspect, who is understood to originally be from Libya, came to the attention of the Security Service (MI5) last year. According to media sources, MI5 had received information that Saadallah had aspirations to travel abroad, potentially for terrorist training. However, it is understood that upon further investigation, no genuine threat or immediate risk was identified and no further action was taken.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

The UK government states that the terror threat level is “substantial”, meaning a terror attack is likely. Islamist extremists continue to view the UK as a legitimate and high-profile target for attack. Terror attacks in the UK are likely to be perpetrated by self-radicalised individuals using low-tech means, such as knives and vehicles. Attacks could occur with little warning and may be indiscriminate.

There has been a significant rise in the number of women travelling for both business and personal reasons in recent years, an estimate of $125 billion is to be spent on travel by women in 2020 alone⁽¹⁾. Regardless of the different situations and incidents going on within the modern world, women are not averse to travelling. Even with the enhanced media attention of risks to females travelling abroad, various studies showing that women are travelling now more than ever.

This figure is only going to grow throughout the coming years, representing a cultural shift that is beneficial for businesses globally. Travelling is very popular amongst women and we see this reflected by our own clients with more and more women conducting business trips each year, varying from short visits to Europe and the US to more complex journeys in Africa or Asia. Therefore, Solace Global want to celebrate the fact that female travel is becoming more frequent and to offer our travel safety tips.

Ensuring personnel safety worldwide is one of our top priorities, and we cannot stress enough the importance of companies considering and preparing for all the unique threats that female travellers can face when abroad. According to a study by SAP Concur, 52% of business travellers cite travel safety as the most valuable training their company could provide⁽²⁾, at Solace Global we offer specific country advice and a range of safety training courses for all travellers, a vital element to making sure your employees are empowered with travel confidence.

Certain countries can be recognised as particularly ‘high risk’ and lone female travellers will need to review various country specific and more generalist aspects when conducting business trips in order to stay safe, for instance understanding the local laws and cultural norms. Women are often treated differently to men and therefore it is highly important that these factors are studied and accounted for before commencing a trip e.g. if travelling to a Muslim country, women must cover shoulders and wear clothing that covers just below the knee.

More than 3 in 4 (77%) female business travellers have had a negative experience related to their gender⁽³⁾ highlighting the importance of pre-travel planning and country-specific research. While many of the risks affect travellers regardless of their gender, male travellers are seen as less vulnerable, meaning women are more likely to become a target. According to a recent survey by YouGov and Tourlane⁽⁴⁾, 46% of women are concerned about their safety when travelling solo, compared to only 20% of men, highlighting the perceived risk women face.

There is no escaping that there will always be an element of risk when travelling regardless of who the traveller is; male or female. However, as long as a person and their company are aware of the risks that they may face, and these are mitigated as far as possible, there is no reason that anyone should not conduct an enjoyable and safe trip.

This is important because the last thing travellers want to do while on a trip is to be constantly worrying and making continued threat assessments about their surroundings while doing what they actually came to do.

There are a number of things that both travellers and company risk managers can do to ensure that female business travellers can conduct their business safely and successfully. These include preparation before and actions during their journeys.

Advice for the travellers

Advice for travel managers

The new initiative, what3words, is a simple way to talk about your current location. It has given each 3m square in the world a unique 3 word address, meaning you can refer to any precise location with just three words, no co-ordinates necessary.

Although our travel tracking app, Solace Secure, allows you to pinpoint your current location, at Solace Global Risk we are able to simplify the emergency response process by sharing your what3words with local emergency services who can easily identify your exact location. Whilst we can still provide your co-ordinates, many in country providers are now working to use what3words to improve accuracy and speed in responding to your requests.

With the what3words map overlay you have the option to view associated three-word addresses across the globe. It is a strong development to have the ability to use additional methods to communicate an individual’s location during an emergency, aiding response. If you are already familiar with the function and call into our operations centre wishing to use a code address our response team will be able to continue to support you.

To find out more about what3words visit: https://what3words.com/about-us/.

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 3 January, the Pentagon confirmed a targeted airstrike had been conducted at Baghdad International Airport. The target of the strike was one of Iran’s most powerful commanders, General Qasem Soleimani, who spearheaded Iran’s elite Quds force and their operations throughout the Middle East. The airstrikes resulted in seven killed, including the deputy commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

The Pentagon has attributed numerous attacks on coalition bases in Iraq in recent months to the Iranian General, and conducted the airstrike as a “decisive defensive action to protect US personnel abroad” and to deter “future Iranian attack plans”. The Green Zone in Baghdad was locked down by Iraqi security forces after the attack to prevent further immediate escalations in tensions. There were reports of celebrations in Tahrir Square by anti-government groups in Iraq, who by and large oppose Iranian involvement in Iraqi affairs.

Iran has responded calling the airstrike an “act of international terrorism” and a “foolish escalation” amid current tensions between the two powers. The Iranian government has indicated that it considers the US strike to be a targeted assassination and that it will retaliate. Three days of national mourning have been announced in Iran.

The Iraqi Prime Minister has stated he considers the assassination of Muhandis an “attack on the Iraqi state, government and people”. The Pentagon has confirmed that US President Donald ordered the strike in response to intelligence suggesting that Soleimani was planning attacks against US forces; the deployment of approximately 750 US soldiers to the Middle East had already been announced but may be increased.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The assassination airstrike occurs in a context of escalating reprisal actions in Iraq between the US and Iran. On 29 December 2019, a coordinated series of US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iran-backed Iraqi militia group Kataib Hezbollah (KH), part of the Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), killing at least 25 militants. These strikes followed the death of an American contractor when dozens of rockets, fired by KH, hit an Iraqi military base. In response, the KH leadership vowed a robust response targeted at US forces in Iraq. The Iraqi government strongly condemned the airstrikes, characterising them as a violation of sovereignty.

Protests were sparked on 31 December outside the US Embassy compound in Baghdad’s ‘Green Zone’ following the funerals of KH fighters who had been killed. Supporters of KH and other Shi’ite PMF units rallied outside the embassy. Protesters attacked the compound, breaking down the gates and setting fires at the facility, forcing the withdrawal of all but security staff who fired tear gas. The demonstrators remained in place until 1 January when, following the deployment of hundreds of additional US troops to the embassy compound, they withdrew.

The assassination airstrike represents a significant escalation and is likely to provoke a strong reaction both from Iran and its proxy forces in the Middle East. There is heightened potential for a resumption of anti-Western protests in Baghdad, along with an upsurge in Iranian-backed militant activity regionally. The US Defense Secretary has stated further militia attacks are expected and the US reserves the right to take preemptive action to prevent them. In the midst of Iranian and US actions, Iraq remains fragile with a fractured political and sectarian society, and a growing concern of a resurgence of extremist groups, such as the Islamic State. There is a strong likelihood Iraq will become more unstable in the coming days and weeks.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 15 December, at approximately 06:00 UTC, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was recorded six kilometres south of Magsaysay, southwest of Davao on the island of Mindanao. The earthquake measured a depth of 22.4 kilometres and was felt across Davao del Sur, North Cotabato, South Cotabato and Sarangani provinces.

The majority of casualties and damage were reported in the Davao del Sur province. Initial figures show that at least five people were killed in Digos and Padada, where a three-storey building collapsed leaving several people trapped under the rubble. In the town of Matanao, a six-year-old child was killed after a house collapsed. An undetermined number of people were also injured, mostly near the epicentre in Magsaysay.

The quake also resulted in power outages in the affected areas, including the General Santos Airport (GES). Footage released on social media also showed an electrical transformer exploding in the city of Davao.

In the aftermath of the event, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not issue any tsunami warning. However, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) warned of further aftershocks. At the time of writing, at least 10 strong aftershocks were recorded, with the strongest being a 5.7 magnitude, centred south-southwest of Sulop at 06:52 UTC.

Relief operations are underway and further reports of casualties and damage are to be expected over the coming hours and days. At the time of writing a number of people remain missing.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the highest environmental risks in the country are landslides, tsunamis, volcanoes and cyclones. However, due to the country’s location along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, the Philippines is also prone to strong deadly earthquakes that often result in substantial damage.

Between October and November, Mindanao island has been hit by multiple and intense earthquakes, which led to casualties and considerable damage, notably in Davao del Sur and Cotabato provinces. On 29 October, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck14 kilometres east of Bual, killing at least ten people and damaging buildings and infrastructure, which had been already weakened by a 6.3 magnitude foreshock approximately ten days earlier. On 31 October, a 6.5 magnitude aftershock was recorded south of Kisante; the death toll was then raised to 24, at least 500 were reported injured and dozens are still missing. In the aftermath of these events, experts stated that tremors would occur until December. Since the Cotabato earthquake swarm, more than 349,000 people have been in need of assistance and 58,000 have been living in evacuation shelters, makeshift shelters and even open spaces.

These recent tremors are likely to have worsened the current humanitarian situation. Moreover, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and utilities, a long-term population displacement is anticipated.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE: What to do after an earthquake? 

-Anticipate aftershocks. These can greatly change in magnitude and can sometimes be more intense than the initial tremor itself. It is recommended to adopt the same safety measures, including “drop, cover and hold”, should these occur.

-Check if you are injured and help others if you have been trained to do so.

-If you are trapped, it is important to remain calm and try to use any means to call for help.

-Do not enter any damaged buildings, as further shocks may result in more damage to already weak structures.

-If currently in a damaged building, move away and not re-enter until the authorities confirm it is safe to do so.

-Once you are safe, monitor media (and Solace Secure) updates for emergency information and instructions. Follow all the advice issued by the local authorities.

-In the aftermath of strong earthquakes, there can be several hazards. Check your surroundings for gas leaks, broken water pipes, damaged wires, hazardous materials or broken glass.

-If possible, wear protective clothing and sturdy shoes to prevent injuries. Maintain situational awareness at all times.

-Abide by all instructions issued by the authorities.

-Be prepared for disruption (possibly extensive) in the region as a result of the earthquake.

SECURITY SUMMARY: The Philippines

In addition to the seismic risk in the region, it is important to note that Mindanao suffers from a significant threat of Islamic terrorism. The risk of attacks is higher in the southern Philippines and the island of Mindanao specifically, where a number of terrorist organisations are still active. These include Aby Sayyaf (an Islamic State affiliate), the Maute group, the New Peoples Army (NPA), Jemaah Islamiyah, and Bangsmoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. Reports indicate that clashes between militants and government forces are frequent in the remote areas of Cotabato and Davao del Sur provinces. Attacks and kidnappings can occur across the Philippines and target foreigners, institutions and security forces.

Following an attack on government facilities by ISIS insurgents, martial law was imposed in 2017 and will remain in place until at least the end of 2019. Moreover, following the earthquakes in October and November, the Department of National Defence heightened the security measures in the affected provinces. These include the presence of checkpoints to ensure the safety of the people living in evacuation centres.

Crime is a significant concern and the most reported common types are theft, assault, robberies and gang-related crimes. Certain areas present a higher risk; these include Sarangani Province, North Cotabato Province, South Cotabato Province, General Santos City, Sultan Kudarat Province, Lanao del Sur Province, Lanao del Norte Province and Iligan City.

As such, due to the high rate of criminality and ongoing insurgency, travellers to the Philippines should consider the use of enhanced security measures. This includes the use of prearranged airport meet and greet services and a locally-vetted driver. Furthermore, the use of travel-tracking technology, supported by a live intelligence feed, is also recommended in order to keep abreast of security developments whilst in-country.