Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42

Headlines From The Week

Chinese Communist Party Congress – Over 2,000 senior delegates from China’s ruling Communist Party gathered for their five-yearly Party Congress. This has been marked by a significant increase in security measures in Beijing. All signs so far point to a solidification of power around President Xi, with no discernible signs of dissent which could represent potential for unrest.
Kirkuk Seized by Iraqi Army – Iraqi federal troops, supported by Iranian-backed Shia militias, retook Kirkuk from the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Only one brief exchange of fire was reported during the initial phase of the operation, Kurdish forces otherwise withdrew peacefully. On 20 October 2017, further fighting was reported in the Alton Kupri area, north of the city. The cause of this incident remains unclear. Up to 100,000 ethnically Kurdish civilians fled the city as the Peshmerga withdrew, fearing ethnic violence from the Shia militias. This exodus is likely to cause disruption in other Kurdish cities, particularly Erbil. The Iraqi army has been ordered not advance further than the pre- 2003 border of the Kurdish Autonomous Region.
Somali Hotel Attack – A truck-borne suicide bomb struck a hotel near the foreign ministry in Mogadishu, killing over 300 people, and wounding a further 400. Officials indicate that the attack was carried out by the Islamist insurgent group, Al Shabaab, although the group has not claimed responsibility for the attack. It is likely that the attacker sought to strike the foreign ministry building, and may not have intended to inflict vast civilian casualties.
Extensive Wildfires in Portugal and Spain – Large wildfires have spread throughout northern Portugal and Spain. They are believed to have been intentionally set by arsonists and exacerbated by an abnormally dry summer. Present estimates place the death-toll for this set of fires at 44. Travel in the affected areas has been heavily disrupted and extensive evacuations were implemented where the fires threatened inhabited areas.
Mersin IED Attack – An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated against a bus carrying Turkish police officers in Mersin on 17 October, injuring 17 police officers and one civilian. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but officials have indicated that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgent group are most likely to have carried out the attack.
Church Attack and Bank Robbery in Sinai – Islamist insurgents opened fire on security personnel near the Church of Saint George in El Arish, Egypt on 16 October. A second group then attacked a nearby bank, whilst security forces were distracted, and emptied the safe. Officials reported that seven people were killed and 15 wounded during the combined attack.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kenya Unrest – Kenya’s President Kenyatta has insisted that the presidential election will continue to go ahead on 26 October 2017, despite his main opponent pulling out of the race. Political rallies and protests have continued across the country, both to demonstrate support for the two main parties, and to protest against perceived irregularities in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. This unrest is highly likely to continue and escalate up to, and beyond, the election date with the main opposition party calling for protests. Protests in Kenya regularly turn violent.
Thai Royal Funeral – Bangkok is to host the five-day long state funeral for King Bhumibol from 25 to 29 October, following more than a year of official mourning. The event is being replicated across the country by 85 scaleddown versions of the ceremony, and is likely to attract high attendance from Thai citizens. Provision of services is highly likely to be disrupted throughout the country.
Tropical storm Lan – The Japanese mainland is likely to be struck by Tropical Storm Lan between 22 and 23 October. The storm is presently a category-two storm; however, it is likely to strengthen to at least category-three before striking Japan. Travellers should comply with the instructions of local authorities.

Significant Dates & Events

22 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Austin, Texas
22 October – Curfew in place from 0800 – 1700 due to census. All travellers must comply with the curfew
22 October – Argentine legislative elections
24 October – Women’s rights protest in Santiago, Chile
24 October – Zambia’s Independence Day
25 October – Royal funeral ceremonies begin, Bangkok, Thailand
27 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Mexico City
27 October – Turkmenistan’s Independence Day
28 October – Trade union protests in Seoul, South Korea

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 42 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41

Headlines From This Week

California Wildfires – 31 people have now been confirmed dead after wildfires swept through northern California. Hundreds remain missing and there are at least 22 active fires at present. More than 3,500 buildings and 68,000 hectares of land have been destroyed, with 8,000 firefighters tackling the various blazes. Officials have warned that conditions will worsen.
Tensions in Kurdistan – Friction between the government in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan continue to rise after the recent independence referendum. Kurdish Peshmerga military forces have claimed that the Iraqi army and its militia allies are preparing to attack Kirkuk, which falls outside of their semi-autonomous zone but is held by Kurdish forces at present. Tensions continue to rise in the region, with Syria, Turkey, and Iran, countries with significant Kurdish populations, watching on closely. Any war between the Kurds and Baghdad could have significant negative consequences for stability in the region.
Kenya Turmoil – It has been a tumultuous week in Kenya and Kenyan politics. Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition in Kenya (NASA), announced plans to pull out of this month’s re-run elections due to issues with the election commission. The impact on the election itself is unclear. Odinga’s supporters have taken to the streets in protest. So much so that the Kenya government has banned protests in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Protestors have ignored this instruction and further violent clashes between police and demonstrators have occurred and are expected to continue.
DRC Elections – The election commission of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that there would be no elections in the country before 2019. The commission claims that more time is needed to adequately prepare. This delay raises concerns that there will be a surge in violence in the already unstable country; activists have already called for resistance in response to the delays.
US-Turkey Diplomatic Issues – Relations between Turkey and the United States, both key members of NATO, seem to be at an all-time low. The US reacted to the arrest of a member of its consular staff by freezing its nonimmigrant visa services in Turkey. The US fears that arrests of its citizens and personnel in Turkey are being made in order to force the US to extradite Fetullah Gulen. Gulen and his followers have been accused of orchestrating the coup attempt last year.
Vietnam Flooding – Flooding and landslides have killed at least 54 people in Vietnam since a tropical depression hit northern and central areas at the beginning of this week. Another 39 people are missing. Infrastructural damage has hampered rescue attempts and travel conditions have become hazardous.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Tropical Storm Khanun – Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern China late on 15 October or early the next day, with Hainan and Guangdong provinces most at threat. The storm is expected to intensify over the South China Sea before hitting Vietnam, potentially causing further damage to areas already dealing with widespread flooding.
Diwali – The festival of Diwali, the ‘festival of lights’, occurs on 19 October, with celebrations lasting for five days. Diwali is observed by Hindus, Sikhs, Newar Buddhists, and Jains, most notably in the Indian subcontinent but also across the world. The festival is an official holiday in Fiji, Guyana, India, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Sindh province in Pakistan.
Elections in Kyrgyzstan – Kyrgyzstan is set for the most democratic election of all countries in the Central Asian region, where the president may only stand for one term. The president is elected using a two-round system, the first being on 15 October. There are tensions between Kyrgyz and Uzbek ethnic groups and it is possible that this election will lay such tensions bare. A state of emergency was issued in Osh during 2010 after clashes between the two groups.

Significant Dates & Events

14 October – World Ironman Championship, Hawaii
15 October – Anti-White Supremacy Rally in Toronto, Canada
15 October – Austrian legislative elections
15 October – Canton Fair begins in Guangzhou, China
15 October – Regional elections take place in Venezuela
16 October – Protests planned outside health ministry in Rabat, Morocco
19 October – CGT Union members in France set to take part in a 24-hour strike
20 October – Sikh Festival celebrating Installation of the Sri Guru Granth Sahib Ji
20-21 October – Czech legislative elections

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 41 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 41 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

8 Oct 17: Operation Crocodile Smile II – Nigerian Military Deploy Troops in Niger Delta. Militants have threatened attacks if the number of soldiers deployed in the region increases. 11 Oct 17: Supply Vessel Attacked and Boarded South of Brass, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 3°57’0N, 6°19’0E at 0820UTC. Seven to eight persons were sighted on the speed boat. The crew mustered to the citadel. Ships equipment and property were stolen. The robbers escaped when the security vessel closed on their position.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

6 Oct 17: Indian Navy Assist Bulk Carrier in Piracy Attack. The INS Trishul responded to the Jag Amar distress call at 1230UTC. The navy seized one AK47 assault rifle, along with grapnels, ropes, fuel drums and ladders. Twelve pirates made the pirate attempt on the vessel. 7 Oct 17: Suspicious Skiffs Reported in Gulf of Aden. Four dark coloured-hulled skiffs were sighted in position 11°56’11N, 44°43’46E at 0720UTC, near Point A IRTC. Four to five persons were reported on board. The skiffs approached up to 0.7nm and then turned away. 8 Oct 17: Somali Forces Kill Iranian Sailor. Puntland Maritime Police Forces spotted two boats reportedly illegally fishing in Somali waters. The incident reportedly occurred off the Ras Hafun coast. Another sailor was injured in the incident.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 Oct 17: US Warship Sails Near Islands Claimed by South China Sea. A US Navy destroyer sailed near islands prompting an angry response from Beijing. China’s Defense Ministry stated a warship, two fighter jets and a helicopter were scrambled to warn the USS Chafee away. 12 Oct 17: Unmanned Rig Being Towed Boarded in Singapore Straits. Five persons in two crafts approached and boarded the rig in position 1°11’1N, 103°33’6E at 0020UTC. The tug master raised the alarm and notified local authorities who responded; however, the persons escaped.

Click link to Download PDF:Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 41 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 41 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

October 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – October 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The October 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 37 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Sep 17: Militants Threaten Sterling Global Oil Operations Over Pollution and Regional Neglect Allegations. The threat was made from Port Harcourt, Nigeria by ex-militant leaders. The firm is believed to not have complied with environmental standards.

8 Sep 17: Militants Withdraw Quit Notice. The Coalition of Niger Delta Agitators withdrew their threat to northerners and Yoruba working in the Niger Delta, after an agreement was reached with stakeholders in the region

8 Sep 17: Pirate Attack in Conakry Anchorage, Guinea. Seven robbers boarded the vessel armed with knives and crowbars. The incident occurred in position 9°21’96N, 13°44’48W at 0316UTC. The robbers attempted to kidnap the master; however, after 15mins they left the vessel with only some stolen ships properties. The crew were reported safe.

12 Sep 17: Protesters in Akwa Ibom, Nigeria Leave Coffins Outside Mobil’s Facilities. One coffin was left outside Mobil’s residential facilities in Eket, Akwa Ibom State, another at the airstrip, and another at Marina Junction in the city. Youths were protesting Mobil’s refusal to move its head office from Lagos to Akwa Ibom State.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

8 Sep 17: French and EUNAVFOR Warships Exercise at Sea Off the Coast of Somalia. The French FS Auvergne and ITS Virginio Fasan conducted counter-piracy exercises in an effort to enhance cooperation.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Sep 17: Ten Pirates Arrested for MGT1 Tanker Hijack. The arrested pirates are Indonesian nationals. None of the 14 crew members, all of whom are Thai, were injured. The search for three accomplices who escaped in a small boat continues.

11 Sep 17: Theft from Anchored Vessel in Samarinda, Indonesia. Duty personnel aboard a bulk carrier noted opened hatches and mooring ropes missing whilst at anchor at 0°13’3 S, 117°33’5 E at 2030UTC.

15 Sep 17: North Korea Fires Second Ballistic Missile Over Japan. This missile flew higher and further than the previous launch. South Korea responded by firing two ballistic missiles into the sea in a simulated strike.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 37 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 37 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Irma – Hurricane Irma has been described as the most powerful Atlantic hurricane in history, reaching a Category Five storm. At least 1.2 million people have been affected by the storm as it ripped through a number of Caribbean islands including Barbuda, where Irma has estimated to have destroyed 95 per cent of dwellings. Irma has now weakened to a Category Four storm as it moves past Turks and Caicos and Cuba, towards Bahamas, and Florida. It is then expected to become a Category Two storm as it passes Miami (by early morning, 11 September). The British and French governments, who both have overseas territories in the region, have promised finances to help locals rebuild. A number of islands in the Caribbean are now on watch for Hurricane Jose, which is expected to be a Category Four Storm.
Mexico Earthquake – Mexican authorities have confirmed that at least 27 people were killed after an 8.2 magnitude earthquake, the strongest to hit the country in a century, struck off the coast of the state of Chiapas late night on 8 September. Hundreds of thousands have been left without power and multiple buildings have collapsed, some with people inside; extensive damage has been noted in Chiapas and Oaxaca states. A tsunami warning has been issued for countries across the Pacific, including as far away as New Zealand and Ecuador. Waves of three metres are expected to continue to hit the Mexican coast. The Mexican government has mobilised the military to assist in operations.
North Korea Nuclear Test – For much of 2017, North Korea has been testing its ballistic missile technology, with missiles generally falling into the sea. However, on 3 September, Pyongyang conducted a test on a nuclear device – its sixth to date. Analysts have suggested that this was a new type of hydrogen bomb. The test caused the equivalent of a 6.3 magnitude earthquake and was felt across the border in China. It is now feared that Pyongyang has been able to shrink a nuclear warhead to such an extent that it could fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The test was widely condemned and new sanctions are expected.
Anti-THAAD protests in South Korea – Dozens were injured after police and protesters clashed in Seongju on 7 September. Protesters had taken to the streets to voice opposition to the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile system, which has been upgraded in light of the recent North Korea nuclear test. China also launched its own diplomatic protest, seeing the missile system as a threat to its sovereignty.
Protests in Togo – Thousands have taken to the streets in the small African nation of Togo between 6-7 September, to protest against President Gnassingbe and his family’s 50-year rule. The unrest marks the largest challenge to his rule since his 2005 ascension to power. Togo authorities have reportedly cut off internet access in response and fired tear gas to contain protestors.

What To Look Out For Next Week

North Korea National Day – North Korea commemorates its ‘Day of the Foundation of the Republic’ on 9 September. The day is one of the most important on the North Korean calendar. South Korea is already preparing for a missile launch, as tests regularly occur on days of national significance.
UN General Assembly – The 72nd session of the UN General Assembly is due to take place between 12 and 20 September. High on the agenda is likely to be the issues regarding North Korea’s nuclear and missile programme, alongside other current global flashpoints. The UN General Assembly is based in New York City and regularly brings widespread travel disruption to the city as dignitaries from around the world attend the event. Travellers should expect numerous road closures around the UN building in Manhattan’s East Side, with police encouraging the use of public transport during the affected period.
French General Strike – The left-wing French CGT union have called for a general strike on 12 September to protest against a government plan for labour market reform. It is unclear how many workers are due to take part in the strike but workers from state utility firm EDF and air traffic controllers have confirmed attendance. This could lead to electricity issues and travel disruption within France. Travellers should avoid any workers’ protests, which are liable to turn violent

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana Cycling Race
9 September – Tajikistan Independence Day
10 September – Belize National Day
10 September – Planned demonstrations against France’s state of emergency
10 September – Marriage equality rally due to take place in Sydney, Australia
12 September – Public transport workers plan protests in Lazio and Lombardy, Italy
15 September – Costa Rica Independence Day
15 September – Guatemala Independence Day
15 September – Honduras Independence Day
15 September – El Salvador Independence Day
15 September – Nicaragua Independence Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 36 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Harvey – At least 37 deaths related to Hurricane Harvey have been reported in southeastern Texas, after the Category Four hurricane made landfall on 25 August. Many areas faced more than a metre of rain and winds of 240 km/h were also recorded. Harvey has caused widespread flooding, most notably in the city of Houston. Other countries impacted by the hurricane include Guyana (where one person was killed), Barbados, Suriname, Nicaragua, and Belize.
Rohingya Clashes – Over the past week, an estimated 400 people have been killed in fighting in Myanmar’s northwest Rakhine state, after clashes between Rohingya Muslim insurgents, the military, and vigilantes. Many of the dead are civilians, with the Myanmar military facing international condemnation for atrocities committed. Close to 38,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled their villages and sought refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh according to the United Nations.
North Korea Missile Launch – North Korea initiated its 18th missile launch of the year. What makes this launch of particular importance is that it flew over Japan’s Hokkaido island before crashing into the sea. Japan warned its citizens to take shelter in a sturdy building or basement. Pyeongyang has vowed more tests.
Kenya Presidential Election Cancelled – Kenya’s Supreme Court has annulled the recent presidential election and ordered a new one to take place within 60 days, citing irregularities. This is a surprising move and comes despite international observers validating the transparency of the vote. There is the high potential for violent unrest in the lead up to, and following, the new election; at least 28 people died in the aftermath of the original vote.
Hajj Pilgrimage – Close to two million of the world’s Muslims have taken part in the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Hajj is then followed by the Eid al-Adha, one of the two most important Islamic festivals, which began on the evening of 31 August. In 2015, upwards of 800 were killed in stampedes during Hajj, some reports suggest that more than a dozen have been killed this year for a variety of reasons. Saudi Arabia has permitted Qatari nationals to attend despite their ongoing diplomatic dispute.
Nineveh Liberated – Iraqi officials declared the complete liberation of Nineveh province, as territory controlled by Islamic State (IS) in Iraq continues to be depleted. IS now controls only a few urban areas and some barren desert in central and western Iraq. The terror group are likely to increase terror attacks across Iraq with Shia Muslims likely to be specifically targeted.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Chile Protests – The ‘NO + AFP’ activist group are due to hold nationwide rallies on 3 September as they continue to protest the country’s private pension system. The largest rally is expected to occur in the capital Santiago, where protestors are due to gather and Plaza Italia. Protesters have been demanding an end to pension cuts for more than a year.
Frankfurt Bomb Disposal – On 3 September, some 70,000 residents of Frankfurt within a 1.5km radius of Wismarer Strasse in Westend district are due to be evacuated to allow officials to remove a 1,800kg World War IIera bomb. Evacuations are due to begin at 0600 local time with widespread travel disruptions predicted.
BRICS Summit – The ninth summit of the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – is due to take place in the Chinese city of Xiamen between 3 and 5 September. The BRICS members are leading developing countries and highly influential regional powers; they represent 23 per cent of world’s economy and 43 per cent of its population. The BRICS group is seen a potential challenger to the post-World War II western dominated international order. One important issue expected to be raised is the recent clashes on the Chinese Indian border.

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana Cycling Race
1-3 – Formula One Weekend in Monza, Italy
2 September – Vietnam National Day • 3 September – Calgary Pride Parade
3-10 September – Tour of Britain Cycling Race
4 September – Islamic Festival of Eid al Adha finishes
6 September – Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia
7 September – Brazil Independence Day
8 September – Macedonia Independence Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 34

Headlines From This Week

Typhoon Hato Hits Southern China – At least 12 people have been confirmed dead after Typhoon Hato swept across southern China on 23 August. Of those deceased, eight occurred in the Special Administrative Region of Macau with four deaths occurring in China’s Guangdong province. The storms caused extensive damage, travel disruptions, and power outages with businesses and schools temporarily closing in Macau, Hong Kong, and southern mainland China. This was the strongest storm to hit the region in at least five years, with Hato quickly strengthening into a typhoon.
Finland Stabbings – An 18-year-old Moroccan asylum seeker stabbed 10 people, leaving two dead and eight injured on 17 August in the city of Turku. The individual had been denied asylum in Finland and this attack is similar to ones seen in Germany in 2016, where failed asylum seekers attacked civilians. The attacker has denied a terrorist motive, despite Finland’s prime minister describing the event as terrorism.
Maldives Political Unrest – A political crisis is continuing in Maldives. On 22 August, opposition MPs were prevented from entering parliament to hold an impeachment vote on the Speaker by the army. Opposition MPs accuse President Yameen and his allies (such as the Speaker) of reversing years of democratic change.
Mexican Journalist Shot – Journalists continue to face violence in Mexico with newspaper reporter Candido Rios Vazquez killed on Veracruz state on 22 August. This occurred despite Rios being enrolled in a programme to protect journalists in Mexico. This was at least the ninth journalists to be killed in Mexico this year.
Netherlands Terror Incident – Police in Rotterdam, Netherlands cancelled a music concert at the Maassilo venue after receiving intelligence from Spanish authorities about a potential terror incident. Dutch security forces subsequently uncovered a van containing a number of gas bottles close to the venue of the concert. This preventative action and arrest of the van driver are not thought to be directly linked to the recent terror attack in Barcelona, Spain.
South Sudan Fuel Shortage – Widespread fuel shortages have caused severe travel disruption in South Sudan. This is having a serious impact on business and the livelihood of locals. It is possible this situation will lead to further unrest and issues with famine and inflation in the country.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Islamic Festival of Dhu al-Hijjah – The Islamic festival of Dhu al-Hijjah (the Hajj) concludes when Eid al Adha begins on 1 September. Eid al Adha is one of the holiest celebrations for the world’s Muslims and will conclude on 5 September. Large prayer celebrations can be expected across the Muslim world and in non-Muslim majority nations. The holy city of Mecca is expected to be especially busy during this time.
Notting Hill Carnival, London – One of Europe’s largest outdoor festivals takes place on the UK’s August Bank Holiday weekend (26-28 August) in the Notting Hill area of London. Whilst there is a strong police and steward presence, with so many people attending, each year the festival sees an increase in criminality, ranging from theft to drug offences to assault with bladed weapons. Injuries have also reported due to overcrowding. Widespread travel disruption will be experienced in the area of the parade.
Hurricane Harvey Heads for Texas – Authorities in the United States are preparing for the most powerful weather system to hit the United States in 11 years. Hurricane Harvey is expected to make landfall on the evening of 25 August, as a Category Three storm. So far, tens of thousands have been evacuated and 700 members of the National Guard have been mobilised. Hurricane Harvey is expected to bring flooding, heavy rainfall, and high winds to last nearly a week. Oil and gas operators have begun evacuating those on offshore platforms

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana Cycling Race
25-27 August – Formula One Weekend in Belgium
26 August – “For Free Internet” Rally to be held in Moscow
27 August – Moldova Independence Day
28 August – US Open Tennis Begins
31 August – Malaysia Independence Day
31 August – Kyrgyzstan Independence Day
31 August – Trinidad and Tobago Independence Day
01 September – Slovakia Independence Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 34 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

No Fear in Flying – Aviation Security and Travel Risks

The importance of aviation security has grown in correlation with the growth of the aviation industry. More people seek to travel more frequently for business and pleasure each year. The last year has seen some significant disruption for frequent flyers, as governments and other intergovernmental agencies have continually sought to make flying a safe means to travel. The risk of terror attack has posed a constant barrier to achieving this goal. Airports and airlines are in a constant battle of balance between providing a pleasurable experience for their travellers, whilst at the same time ensuring stringent security measures are effective and thorough without causing costly delays. With some of the biggest airports around the world having hundreds of thousands of passengers pass through their gates on a daily basis, this is no small feat. The recent anti-terror arrests in Australia are an interesting development in light of the recent lifting of the electronics ban imposed by the US and the UK. On 30 July 2017, a number of raids were conducted and four arrests made in some of Sydney’s suburbs. The action was undertaken in response to a bomb plot involving an aircraft. One of the suspected bomb plotters had planted the device in a piece of luggage and had asked his brother to take it on his flight on 15 July 2017 from Sydney to Abu Dhabi on an Etihad Airways flight. The luggage was never checked in and left the airport with the suspected bomb plotting brother, the reasons for this are unconfirmed but it is thought the luggage may have been too heavy. Australian authorities have emphasised that at no point was the luggage security-screened as it was not checked in. The group attempted to build a second explosive device, which would disperse a colourless toxic gas; however, foreign intelligence agencies had informed Australia before the plan was enacted. The Islamic State are believed to be behind the terror plot.

So What was the Electronics Ban About?

The ban came into effect in March 2017, and prohibited passengers from carrying their larger electronic devices with them onto the plane, due to fears of a terrorist plot to plant explosives in them. In February 2016, a Daallo Airlines Airbus was targeted when an explosive device (believed to be a laptop) detonated, sucking the perpetrator out of the hole in the fuselage. Fortunately, the aircraft was able to land at Mogadishu airport successfully. The 2017 ban applied to specific countries in the Middle East and their direct flights to the US and United Kingdom, although the UK did not apply the ban to as many countries as the US. The attempt to mitigate the threat of “innovative methods” of terrorists led to an inconvenience for many travellers and a direct financial impact on numerous Middle Eastern airlines. Once airports had implemented extra security measures, the ban was lifted. Abu Dhabi Airport, the airport hub which serves Etihad Airways, was the first airport to meet the requirements and have the electronics ban lifted in early July 2017.

Laptops aren’t the First Bomb Threat on a Plane

Reports on the recent terror arrests in Australia, have stated the IED (Improvised Explosive Device) was disguised as a meat mincer. There is a discussion to be had over potential innovative methods used by terror groups, such as the Islamic State, when ordinary objects are turned into lethal explosive devices. Checking a meat mincer onto a plane is a way to disguise an IED on an aircraft, although it has been reported by Australian police they device would have been picked up if it had been screened. The explosive device embarked on the Metrojet flight from Sharm-el-Sheikh to St Petersburg in October 2015, was reported to be in an aluminium can, according to ISIS who claimed the attack. International investigators of the incident agree there was most likely an explosive device planted in the cabin, although the form of it has not been confirmed. In 2010, Dubai police intercepted printers which contained explosives, and were on route to being shipped to the United States. The plot originated in Yemen and was implemented by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The concern for aviation security therefore, is that as long as the threat posed by terror groups remains, innovative methods of attack will continue to weaponise ordinary objects to avoid security detection. To mitigate this, comprehensive screening processes have become central to ensuring the safety of travellers. The 2001 shoe-bomber plot, as well as the 2009 explosive underwear attempt, are both examples of attempted terror attacks on aircraft using innovative methods to conceal explosive devices; although both attempts failed. Information-sharing between foreign intelligence agencies has also become increasingly important, as demonstrated in the recent uncovering of the plot in Australia.

Identifying a Security Threat, and Getting it Wrong

The ongoing threat of terrorism has led to an increased awareness and suspicion towards certain travellers which fit the stereotype. In August 2016, a Syrian woman was detained at Doncaster Airport in the United Kingdom under the Terrorism Act, as the book she was reading on the aircraft on Syrian art and culture, appeared suspicious to the Thomson Airways crew. An inconvenient and distressing experience for the traveller, but also a potential act of discrimination based on her ethnicity. On the other side of the spectrum, a British passenger taken hostage on an Egypt Air flight in March 2016, took a smiling picture with the hijacker who was wearing an explosive belt. Although the device was later proven to be fake, and the hijacker motivated by personal issues, the passenger’s decision to throw caution away in regard to his own safety, posed a significant threat to the remaining hostages. His desire to see the device closer up, could have proven a provocative move, and was unnecessary considering the ongoing negotiations that were being held with the hijacker.

What Can a Traveller Do About the Security Threat?

Airports and airlines adopt appropriate security measures according to the assessed threat level at the time. However, all airports and airlines still carry some level of risk. Some airlines may be targeted for who they represent, whilst some airports are vulnerable to smuggling suspicious devices. At a minimum, travellers should avoid using air carriers with poor safety and security records in general. It is also important to be aware that airport security in developing countries may not have the same stringent security standards as London Heathrow, for example. When booking, try to select an emergency exit seat on the aircraft, or one near it, for both safety and security reasons. When packing, it is important to be aware of certain items which may identify you as a target to a hijacker, such as clothing carrying company logos, company paperwork, membership cards of political or action groups, offensive reading materials, expensive jewellery and other valuable items. If possible, these items should be placed in checked luggage or left at a safe location at home or the office.

At the Airport

Travellers should always ensure they arrive with time enough to not only check-in on the flight, but also proceed through security. Security screenings can become particularly congested during peak holidays. Once checked-in, travellers should proceed directly to security and avoid waiting in lobby areas in departures or afterwards in arrivals halls. The terror attacks on Brussels Airport in March 2016, and again at Atatürk Istanbul Airport in June 2016, both targeted these areas, which are easily accessible. In the event an airport terminal is evacuated, follow the instructions of local security personnel to the area you are being directed to. If possible, stay in the centre of the group to limit exposure to potential firearms or explosives. If there is a live shooter, our Run, Hide, Tell Guide provides some helpful information on what to do. If you feel a traveller is acting suspiciously, report your suspicions to local authorities or an airline employee.

In the Air

Security terror threats towards airborne aircraft range from already planted explosive devices to hijackings. Not every hijacker is a suicide bomber and may be motivated by other political goals. In the event the hijacker is suicidal, it is recommended to join with other passengers and attempt to overpower the hijackers by any means possible. Ultimately, in order for the hijacker to gain full control of an aircraft, he has to gain entry to the flight deck. With reinforced doors and cabin cameras, it is easier for pilots to monitor and control access. Within the cabin, the initial stage of a hijacking is one of the most dangerous as hijackers seek to assert their authority through aggression or violence. Hostages in this situation are advised to follow crew instructions and avoid antagonising any hijackers throughout the hostage situation. Do not talk with fellow passengers as this may appear suspicious to hijackers, or there may be potential a passenger could provide your personal information to a hijacker in order to gain favour or release. Travellers should also be aware of the possibility for “sleepers”; accomplices to the hijackers who have not yet made their presence known on board. It is important to remain calm for the duration, alert to your surroundings, and maintain a positive mindset. Limit the amount of fluids consumed in order to avoid regular visits to the lavatory. In many cases, there have been successful negotiated releases of hostages from a plane. However, in the event that the aircraft is stormed by security forces, travellers should remain as low as possible whilst keeping their hands visible. This is another critical stage of an aircraft hijacking which may result in some injuries or fatalities.

Summary

Airports and aircraft are high value targets for terrorists. Due to their increased security measures, improved innovative methods for developing discrete explosive devices are likely to continue. This kind of planned attack does require a significant amount of preparation and coordination, making it more vulnerable to early detection, as seen in the recent Sydney arrests. However, in the meantime, flying travellers will better be able to prepare themselves if they remember:

When packing, leave behind unnecessary items or documents which may be offensive to others.
Maintain a low profile. For example: avoid wearing company logos.
Choose a seat as close to an emergency exit as possible.
Ensure you arrive in good time for your flights, in order to go through security screening.
Avoid waiting in the arrivals or departures halls, proceed directly to security screening or leave the airport as a priority.
If you are concerned and feel someone is acting suspiciously, report it to the nearest authority figure.
In a hostage situation, remain calm and do not antagonise the hostage-takers.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 33

Headlines From This Week

Terror attack in Barcelona – 14 people were killed and dozens wounded after a van intentionally drove into a crowd in the Las Ramblas tourist area of Barcelona, with Islamic State claiming responsibility for the attack. A further five people were shot dead in Cambrils, southwest of Barcelona after another car attack that injured seven. A further incident was also reported in Sant Just Desvern, on Barcelona’s outskirts. So far three people have been arrested, with citizens of 24 countries among those killed or injured.
Bolivian Government Approves Controversial Road – Bolivia’s government have approved a controversial highway to run through an area of Amazon biodiversity hotspot and home to 14,000 mostly indigenous people. The highway is planned to be 300 km long and will run through the Isiboro Secure Indigenous Territory and National Park, east of the capital La Paz. The planned road had caused widespread protests in 2011.
Sierra Leone Mudslide – More than 400 have been reported dead after a hillside collapsed in the Regent area of Sierra Leone’s capital, Freetown. The mudslide occurred after three days of torrential rains. The death toll is expected to rise as rescue attempts are hampered by poor infrastructure and further downpours. • Burkina Faso Terror Attack – 18 people were killed after gunmen attacked a Turkish restaurant in Ouagadougou. A further 22 were injured. The gunmen are believed to have been Islamic militants from the Sahel region. It seems likely that this restaurant was specifically targeted due to its popularity with foreigners.
The Monsoon in South Asia – The monsoon season in the Indian sub-continent continues to have a significant impact. At least 245 people have been killed across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Thousands more have been forced from their homes into temporary accommodation.
Charlottesville Violence – Rival protesters from the left and right clashed over the decision to remove a statue honouring a Confederate general who was a leader of the slave-owning South during the US Civil War, in Charlottesville, Virginia. One person was killed and several others injured after a far-right protester drove a car through a crowd of opposing protesters in what has been described as a domestic terror incident. President Trump’s response has been widely and globally criticised, with further clashes involving white nationalists possible across the country.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Islam Protest in Vancouver – Far-right protesters are due to descend on Vancouver’s City Hall on 19 August. The rally will begin at 1400 hrs local time and is expected to be met by counter-protestors. There are fears that this event may incite the same levels of violence seen at the Charlottesville rally in North Carolina, United States on 12 August. Travellers should avoid this area.
Angola Elections – On 23 August, Angolans will elect a new President to replace Jose Eduardo dos Santos. It is widely expected that dos Santos’s ruling Party – the MPLA – will maintain control of governance of the country. The freedom and transparency of the election has been criticised.
Boston Protests – Right wing “Boston Free Speech Rally” and a Black Lives Matter (BLM) protest are both due to occur in downtown Boston on 19 August. The BLM protest is due to begin at 1000 hrs at Reggie Lewis Athletic Center before heading towards Boston Common where the opposing protest is due to take place. Thousands are expected to attend; travellers should avoid the protest areas.
Southeast Asia Games – 11 countries will compete in the 29th Southeast Asia games between 19 and 30 August in Malaysia. Travellers can expect security measures to be enhanced for this period and certain travel delays in Kuala Lumpur during this time.

Significant Dates & Events

19 August – 10 September – Vuelta a Espana cycling race
19 August – Afghanistan Independence Day
22 August – CGT Union in Argentina plan protest.
22 August – Union Bank employees in India plan to strike.
23-26 August – SATA Air Açores and Air Azores cabin crew plan strike.
24 August – Ukraine Independence Day.
24-25 August – Portuguese Immigration officers plan strike.
25 August – Uruguay Independence Day.
26 August – Opposition group to protest in Moscow, Russia

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 33 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Run, Hide, Tell, Then What?

The first three steps for people exposed to a terror attack are fairly universal, run, hide, tell. These steps are also fairly simple to remember. But what if you’ve followed them and find yourself in a position where the threat to your safety and security is still there? Is run, hide, tell enough advice? Or are there other steps that can also be considered?

In most circumstances where a terror attack occurs, run, hide, and tell is applicable. Whether the attack is occurring on the beach, such as the attack in Sousse, Tunisia in June 2015, or later the same year in Paris, when coordinated attacks were conducted on the same night at the Stade de France, the Bataclan theatre, and numerous restaurants.

RUN – If you are in a location where you can hear or see gunfire or explosions, it is recommended to leave the area immediately using the safest route available. Stay near cover as much as possible, keeping low. Avoid using main entrances and exits, or running around blind corners. Encourage others to go with you, however do not delay leaving the area longer than necessary. Leave everything behind so that you are able to move quickly.

Recently, there has been an increase in vehicle attacks in Europe, such as in Nice, Berlin, Sweden, and London. These kinds of attacks may occur swiftly and are potentially less obvious when they start, particularly in large congested locations. In Nice on 14 July 2016, 86 people were killed and 434 injured on the Promenade des Anglais when a truck drove through the crowd. In Berlin on 19 December 2016, 12 people were killed and 56 injured in a similar attack. Situational awareness continues to be the primary key for people in unfamiliar environments.

HIDE – Dependent on circumstances, running away from the area may not be an option. The attack may have escalated quickly into a hostage situation for example.

Café-goers in Sydney, Australia suddenly found themselves being held hostage for almost 24 hours by Man Horan Monis in December 2014. The situation ended with a police raid and resulted in two persons killed, excluding the hostage-taker. The following month in January 2015, the Kouachi brothers, responsible for the gun attack on the Charlie Hebdo offices in Paris, were held up in an industrial warehouse near the Charles de Gaulle airport, as the police manhunt for them continued. Unbeknownst to them, Lilian Lepère, a graphics designer for the company, was hiding under the sink in a cupboard, sending text messages to the police. Ideal hiding locations are those which would provide suitable cover from gunfire, such as thick walls. It is important to note, being discovered hiding by the attacker could significantly increase the threat to life. Indeed, after Lepère’s hostage incident, he attempted to sue the French media for reporting a hostage was hiding at the location whilst he was still concealed. Persons in hiding should ensure their phone’s ring tones and vibrations are turned off to avoid inadvertently revealing their location.

TELL – The last step is to inform local emergency services, or alert someone else who is able to do that for you. Once assistance arrives, you should follow their instructions accordingly. This advice is acceptable in developed countries with efficient emergency response services.

However, as a traveller, who do you tell locally when visiting poorer countries, with significant terror threats, and they do not speak your language? There are a number of options for this. Prior to travelling, a threat and risk assessment should be done for such countries. A traveller may simply risk it and choose to inform their family or company via phone in the event on an incident. However, this can also prove insufficient for instances where an immediate response is required. There are a variety of travel-tracking options for travellers to high risk or vulnerable areas, from GPS devices to phone applications. These measures can facilitate quick informing of an incident, and provide the travellers exact location, as well as provide access to life-saving advice or physical assistance in country as needed.

Run, hide, tell, is good initial advice in the event of a terror attack. However, there are some additional options for travellers to consider if caught in an attack.

FIGHT – This is an additional step more commonly advised in the United States, and is somewhat of a last resort. The aim is to incapacitate the attacker by using physical aggression. If pursuing this action, it is important to commit to the fight, and if others are around, encourage them to join you. It is easy to provide this advice, but another thing to follow through with it altogether.

As an example, in August 2015, three American servicemen were applauded internationally when they physically apprehended Mohammed Mera, who was wielding firearms and a sharp blade on a train en route to Paris from Amsterdam. The terror attack in London on 3 June 2017, saw the bravery of an off-duty police officer who physically confronted the attackers and was severely injured in the process. It cannot be ignored that in both instances, the men who fought the attackers had some form of training. However, in the event a hiding location is discovered, or there is no available exit, a person has to be prepared for the worst, and not fighting back could prove equally fatal.

TREAT – For potentially fatal wounds, the earlier a victim is treated, the greater the likelihood they will survive the incident. This can be particularly challenging in situations such as terror attacks in the UK, where armed police must first prioritise neutralising the threat. In these scenarios, paramedics are only permitted on the scene after the area has been secured by police, which can significantly delay professional medical help for those in urgent need.

Training exercises have shown that it may take up to 100 minutes for paramedics to be allowed onto a scene following a large-scale terror attack. However, the critical window for treating severe injuries is often within the first five minutes. In light of these delays, civilians already present at the scene sometimes step in to assist the injured. This has been the case in numerous London attacks this year, where passersby have provided immediate aid, such as during the vehicle attacks on the London and Westminster bridges.

A notable example of civilian bravery was UK MP Tobias Ellwood, who was praised for his efforts during the April 2017 Westminster Palace attack. Ellwood provided mouth-to-mouth resuscitation and applied pressure to the wounds of a severely injured police officer, although tragically, the officer had already lost too much blood. While not everyone has first aid training, simple actions like stopping excessive bleeding can still be crucial while waiting for emergency services. To aid in these efforts, CitizenAid has developed a free app that offers medical guidance on how to assist casualties who may be bleeding, unconscious, or not breathing.

However, while the impulse to rush to assist is commendable, one must also consider the ongoing threat, such as the possibility of secondary explosive devices or suicide bombers remaining in the area. The “fight and treat” steps, while potentially controversial, warrant consideration given the variety of terror attack methods globally, including everything from improvised explosive devices and gun assaults to vehicle rammings and knife attacks.

The existing “Run, Hide, Tell” strategy is simple and easy to remember, but “Fight and Treat” introduces additional risks in scenarios where the threat to life is already imminent. It is crucial to be mindful that all five steps—run, hide, tell, fight, and treat—carry inherent risks.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 32

Headlines From This Week

Earthquake in China – At least 19 people have been confirmed dead after a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck northwest of Guangyuan, Sichuan province on 8 August. The area is frequently struck by earthquakes; in May 2008, 70,000 people were killed in a quake.
Kenyan Elections – Some localised violence has occurred, with at least five deaths reported, after Kenyans went to the polls. Incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta is set to be sworn in for a second term. However, his primary opponent, Raila Amolo Odinga has claimed the elections were not free and fair despite observers from the EU, AU, the Carter Centre, and elsewhere stating otherwise.
South Africa Secret Ballot – Parliament voted for the eighth time on a motion of no-confidence in President Zuma. Despite being a secret ballot, the motion was not successful. The opposition have now called for parliament to be dissolved and early elections to be held.
North Korea vs the US – Both the United States and North Korea have been accused of increasing the tensions on the Korean Peninsula this week. President Trump has promised to bring “fire and fury” on North Korea, while Pyongyang has declared an intent to attack the US island territory of Guam.
French Soldiers Attacked – Six French soldiers were left injured after being rammed by a BMW in the Paris suburb of Levallois-Perret on 9 August, in an apparently deliberate attack. Police believe the perpetrator has been arrested, after being shot by police.
Central African Republic Clashes – 30 civilians, including six Red Cross aid workers, have been killed after clashes between a self-defence group and a local militia, believed to have been the UPC, a Muslim militia. The civilians had been attending a crisis meeting at a health facility in the town of Gambo of Mbomou prefecture.
Lahore Terror – Lahore was hit by another terror attack on 7 August, with at least 39 people injured, including children. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack but the Pakistani Taliban are active in the area; in July of this year, they killed 25 in a bomb blast in Lahore.
Nigerian Kidnapping – On 7 August, 16 people were kidnapped from a passenger bus outside of Port Harcourt in Nigeria’s Rivers State. This attack demonstrates instability in the area, despite the reduction of militant attacks on oil pipelines in 2017. Kidnapping-for-ransom is common in Nigeria with public transport often targeted by criminal groups.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pakistan and India’s Independence Days – Pakistan and India celebrate their independence days on 14 and 15 August respectively. Large crowds and heightened security measures are expected in major cities of both countries. There is also the potential for border clashes in the Kashmir region or for terror groups to attack large crowds.
South and North Korea’s Independence Day – The Koreas celebrate the end of Japanese colonial rule on 15 August. Protests are expected at the Japanese Embassy in Seoul by surviving ‘Comfort Women’. It is also possible that Pyongyang will use this as an opportunity to conduct another missile test, especially given the ratcheting up of tensions recently.
Afghanistan’s Independence Day – There will be heightened levels of security throughout Afghanistan for their Independence Day celebrations. The threat of terror attacks, either targeted or random, remains severe. In 2011, the British Council compound was attacked by the Taliban on the country’s Independence Day.

Significant Dates & Events

12 August – Prague Pride Parade
14 August – Jewish festival of Tisha B’Av
14 August – Hindu festival of Krishna Janmashtami
15 August – Republic of the Congo National Day
17 August – Gabon National Day
17 August – Indonesia Independence Day
20 August – Montreal Pride Parade
19-30 August – Southeast Asian Games

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Week 32 – Weekly Risk Roundup The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 32 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 32 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

3 Aug 17 – Niger Delta Forum Retract Ultimatum. After the government agreed to some concessions, including legalising makeshift refineries, the group retracted their threat of resuming targeting oil pipelines. 7 Aug 17 – Robbery Attempt on Berthed Tanker in Lagos Port. The duty officer noticed two robbers trying to insert a hose into the cargo tank. The alarm was raised and robbers escaped with the hose. Nothing was reported stolen and port control was informed. 8 Aug 17 – Militant Group Set 1 October Deadline to Declare a Niger Delta Republic. The group known as the Niger Delta Volunteers have claimed they have made agreements with other restive groups to declare the Niger Delta a sovereign republic. They have also stated they are not part of Biafra and have warned Biafran indigenous people to stay away from Akwa Ibom. International oil companies have been threatened to move their headquarters to the Niger Delta or attacks on oil and gas infrastructure will resume.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

3 Aug 17 – Turkey Open Largest Military Camp in Mogadishu. The camp is due to be opened in September 2017 and is Turkey’s largest overseas 9 Aug 17: UKMTO Clarifies Transiting the Bab El Mandeb Strait in Dark Hours. Due to the varying natures of current threats in the High Risk Area, transiting the strait during daylight or darkness will heighten different risks. Vessels should continue to implement BMP4 measures to the fullest extent possible, including the use of armed security, as well as conduct a detailed risk assessment of each transit.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

No significant approaches, vessel attacks or boardings were reported this week. 5 Aug 17 – China Seals off Parts of Yellow Sea to Conduct Naval Drills. The area was closed from 5-8 Aug from Qingdao, Shandong to Lianyungang, Jiangsu. The drills have been held at a time where tensions are high in response to North Korea’s missile testing. 7 Aug 17 – 16 Somali Pirates Sentenced to Seven Years in Jail in India. The convicted will be deported to Somalia once their sentence has been served. 9 Aug 17 – North Korea Threatens to Target Guam. The reported plan is to fire four missiles over Japan into the sea off Guam. The threat was made in response to escalating rhetoric between President Trump and North Korea.

Click the following link to download this information as a PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 32 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 32 Maritime Security Report complied by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.