Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 11

Headlines From This Week

Curfew Implemented in Colon, Panama – Following a spate of civil unrest, a curfew was implemented in Colon on 13 March. Protests were triggered in response to the poor implementation of an infrastructure renovation project, which has led to sanitation issues and flooding. Police with less-than-lethal weapons clashed with protesters throwing rocks, resulting in numerous injured. Isolated reports of burned vehicles and looting also occurred. Tensions are likely to persist.
Violent Protests in Conakry, Guinea – Protests centred around the Wanindara suburb of Conakry have been ongoing since 13 March, following demands by opposition leaders for the vote counts from the February election to be made public. At least two people were shot dead during the unrest, however the circumstances of these remain unclear. Disruption was caused to bauxite extraction and export operations in the region.
Palestinian Prime Minister Attacked on 13 March – The Palestinian Prime Minister, Rami Hamdallah, was targeted by a roadside improvised explosive device in Gaza. The blast damaged several vehicles in the Prime Minister’s motorcade, although no casualties were reported. The aim of the attackers remains unclear, and no group has sought to claim credit for the attack. Ongoing tensions between Hamas and Fatah may have been a factor in the lead up to the attack.
Police killed in Chhattisgarh – Nine members of India’s Central Reserve Police Force were killed in Chhattisgarh when their protected vehicle was struck by a large improvised explosive device. The attack was carried out by a Maoist insurgent group known locally as the Naxals. Reporting suggests that a large number of Naxal fighters continue to operate in the region; attacks are generally focussed on security forces or government targets.
Russia and the UK Reciprocate Diplomatic Expulsions – Following an apparent assassination attempt by suspected Russian agents in Salisbury, UK, the British and Russian governments have engaged in tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomatic staff. Deteriorating relations between the UK and Russia are likely to have wider impact on relations between Russia, and both the EU and US. Russian travellers in the UK, or British travellers in Russia may experience increased levels of harassment from locals or, if in Russia, officials following the incident.
50,000 Refugees Departed Eastern Ghouta – Present estimates suggest that intermittent lulls in the fighting around the Damascus suburb of Easter Ghouta have permitted approximately 50,000 civilians to flee over the past week.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Russian Presidential Election – The Russian presidential election is scheduled for 18 March. The incumbent president, Vladimir Putin, is running against seven opposition candidates, yet is presently receiving approximately 70 per cent support in official polling. Election fraud and corruption is endemic throughout Russia, and urban protests in response to such allegations frequently follow elections. Travellers should be aware that heightened security measures are likely to be in place throughout the election period and near polling sites.
Tunisian Independence Day – Tunisia celebrates its Independence Day on 20 March. The country has recently experienced waves of protests, in part due to the relative impunity enjoyed by security forces when accused of malpractice or brutality, and also due to the perceived lack of judicial independence. It is likely that protests will occur during the Independence Day events, and there remains an underlying risk that these may become violent.
Ugadi/Nyepu – The festival of Ugadi represents the New Year celebrated by Hindu populations in India and across the world. Celebrations often vary by region, however travellers are likely to experience disruption and reduced services when visiting any majority-Hindu area. Indonesian Hindus refer to the holiday as Nyepi; services may be shut down in some areas during the celebrations; Bali is scheduled to restrict internet access.
Nowruz – Nowruz is the traditional Persian New Year, and is celebrated on 20 March in a number of countries with historical cultural ties to Persia, modern-day Iran. The holiday is widely politicised, political leaders often conduct rallies and speeches in the countries where it is celebrated. As Persian population groups may be a minority, it is possible these celebrations will exacerbate ethnic tensions.
Broad Front Protests, Venezuela – The opposition group known as the Broad Front for a Free Venezuela, called for nationwide demonstrations on 17 March, in relation to the presidential election scheduled for April 2018. This marks the first significant attempt by the opposition to mass-mobilise the population since a four-month wave of protests in 2017. Political rallies and protests in Venezuela are often accompanied by violence, with security forces operating in a heavy-handed and repressive manner.
European Anti-Racism Demonstrations – Several European cities; generally national and regional capitals such as London, Edinburgh, and Paris; are scheduled to host demonstrations against racism, anti-Semitism, and Islamophobia. Estimates suggest each protest is likely to attract more than one thousand people. It is likely that far-right or anti-immigration groups will seek to conduct counter demonstrations and may seek to disrupt the events. Travellers should avoid any demonstrations if possible, regardless of apparent peaceful intent.

Significant Dates and Events

17 March – Bangladesh – Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s birthday
17 March – Ireland – Patrick’s Day
17 March – Serbia – Anti-Kosovo independence protest to take place in Belgrade
17 March – Argentina – Anniversary of 1992 bombing of Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires
17 March – Germany – Far-right rallies and counter protests planned in Munich
17 March – Burundi – Protests scheduled in Bujumbura
18 March – United Kingdom – Pro-Kurdish Rallies in Oxford
18 March – Australia – ASEAN summit in Sydney, enhanced security likely.
19 March – Togo – Opposition protests scheduled for the week following 19 March
19 March – Mexico – Benito Juarez’s Birthday (public holiday)
19 March – India – Ola and Uber drivers to strike
19 March – Australia – Pro-environmental rally to be held in Marrickville, Sydney
21 March – Japan – Vernal Equinox Day
21 March – Namibia – Independence Day
21 March – South Africa – Human Rights Day
22 March – Puerto Rico – Emancipation Day
22 March – France – General strike by the SNCF union. Public transport is highly likely to be disrupted.
22 March – Italy – Public transport workers to strike in Rome.
23 March – Pakistan – Pakistan Day
23 March – Peru – Eighth Summit of the Americas to be held in Lima
24 March – Argentina – Truth and Justice Memorial Day
25 March – Greece and Cyprus – Greek Independence Day
26 March – Bangladesh – Independence Day
26 March – Mali – Martyrs’ Day
26 March – Egypt – First Round of the Presidential Elections.
27 March – Myanmar – Armed Forces Day
29 March – Madagascar – Martyrs’ day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 11 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 11 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 10 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

12 Mar 18: Speedboats Stolen by Armed Group in Bayelsa. A group of armed men attacked the Ayama area of Bayelsa, Nigeria, potentially killing or injuring up to five people. The group fled before security forces could respond, towing approximately ten stolen speedboats. 08 Mar 18: Suspicious Approach near Takoradi Anchorage, Ghana. A merchant vessel underway at 03°55’N 001°14’E was approached by three speedboats. Weapons and six persons sighted on one speedboat. Vessel safe. 06 Mar 18: – Update – Tanker Attacked near Bonny Island, Nigeria. A tanker underway at 04°05’N 006°57’E was approached by two speedboats, the occupants of which boarded the tanker with firearms. All crew took refuge in the citadel, no hostages taken. Pirates departed after damaging navigation and communication equipment. All crew safe.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

08 Mar 18: Suspicious Approach in Bab-el-Mandeb. A merchant vessel was approached by three skiffs at 12°32’N 043°27’E, south of Perim Island.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

06 Feb 18: LATE REPORT: Robbery From Anchored Vessel, Chittagong, Bangladesh. A merchant vessel at 22*08’N 091*44’E was boarded by six men who threatened the crew and escaped with ship’s properties. Crew reported safe.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 10 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 10 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 10

Headlines From This Week

Warming Relations on the Korean Peninsula – President Trump has agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, after overtures from Pyongyang. The warming of relations between North Korea, South Korea, and the Unite States is highly unexpected, especially given the high tensions in 2017. It is unclear what can be expected to be gained from any talks, but reports suggest that Pyongyang is considering denuclearisation in return for regime security. The warming of relations between North and South Korea largely came as a result of 2018 Pyeongchang Olympic Games and the differing, yet seemingly complementary, tactics of Seoul and Washington.
Violent Unrest in Sri Lanka – This week saw violent unrest in the island nation of Sri Lanka as Buddhists and Muslims clashed, most notably in the city of Kandy. Reports from 09 March suggest that the situation has calmed somewhat after a state of emergency and curfew were implemented. The Sri Lankan military has reportedly been able to quell Buddhist rioters who had attacked mosques and Muslim-owned businesses. There have not been any reports of tourist areas being affected by the violence.
Papua New Guinea Earthquake – Over 100 people are now believed to have died after an earthquake struck the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG), with strong aftershocks still being felt. The remoteness of those affected has made rescue efforts a struggle, despite assistance from Australia and New Zealand. Key infrastructure has also been damaged with ExxonMobil forced to shut down all facilities in PNG; repairs and inspections could take around eight weeks.
North America Winter Storms – A massive two-day winter storm that had stretched over a 3,000-kilometre front struck the eastern seaboard of North America, mainly impacting the northeast. The storm is one of the largest since the 1950s and has caused ground travel to come to a halt in many areas, and for flights to be cancelled; power outages have also been reported. A further storm is expected to bring hazardous weather conditions to the southeast coast of the US in the early part of next week.
Elections in Italy – The Italian elections of 04 March brought about strong results of populist parties. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement won the largest share of the vote at 32 per cent while the far-right, anti-EU Lega party came third with more than 17 per cent. No party nor pre-election coalition has the necessary 40 per cent to govern. Talks between different parties will now have to take place to ensure that a government can be formed. This will prove difficult as the Five Star Movement ruled out going into government with any other party before the election. New elections may be called if no government can be formed.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Colombia Elections – Legislative elections in Colombia are due to take place on 11 March. This will mark the first election in which the former rebel group, FARC, are due to participate; the peace deal with FARC has been divisive partly because they are guaranteed 10 seats in the legislature. Another rebel group, the ELN, remain active in Colombia despite peace overtures from the government. The ELN has increased their levels of violence since the end of the ceasefire in early 2018, though they have temporary halted hostilities for the election period.
Tibetan Uprising Day – Observed on 10 March, Tibetan Uprising Day commemorates the 1959 uprising against the presence of China in Tibet. This anniversary often brings protests in neighbouring countries, such as India or Nepal, but these events have been toned down this year. Expect enhanced security measures in Tibet and the neighbouring provinces of Sichuan, Qinghai, Gansu, and Yunnan Provinces, as Chinese security forces seek to prevent self-immolations (the practice, often by monks, of committing suicide by fire as a form of protest).
Australia-ASEAN Summit – The city of Sydney will host the Australia-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Special Summit on 17-18 March. Enhanced security measures and road closures are set to be implemented. Protests should also be expected as a series of contentious issues are set to be discussed including political developments in Cambodia, the Rohingya crisis, and the drug war in the Philippines. Smaller summits and events will be held from 12 March.
Resumption of Protests in Togo – After a period of relative calm, opposition groups have announced plans to resume protests on 13, 14, 15, and 17 March. Talks between the government and its opponents had been ongoing since 19 February. The capital Lomé is likely to be the focus of the protests which have turned deadly in the past. Opposition groups are demanding a return to the 1992 Constitution.
Elections in Cuba – Elections will be held in Cuba on 11 March 2018 for members of the National Assembly of People’s Power. This election will mark the beginning of the end of the Castro brothers, with Raul due to step down in April 2018. As this election marks a generational change, it may encourage public unrest. Security forces may forcefully crush any demonstrations. In the previous election, the Communist Party won all 612 seats.
Anti-Finance Law Protests in Niger – Anti-finance law protests are set to take place in Niger on 11 March, specifically in Niamey, Zinder, Maradi, Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Dosso. Previous protests have turned violent and should be avoided. The government claims the law will allow more efficient measures to be implemented against corruption.

Significant Dates and Events

09-18 March – South Korea – 2018 Winter Paralympics, Pyeongchang
11 March – Lithuania – Restoration of Independence Day
11 March – Lesotho – Moshoeshoe’s Day
11 March – Cuba – Legislative elections
12 March – Australia – Canberra and Labour Day
12 March – Commonwealth – Commonwealth Day
12 March – Zambia – Youth Day
12 March – Belize – National Heroes and Benefactors Day
12 March – Mauritius – National Day
13 March – Vatican City – Anniversary of the election of Pope Francis
13 March – Nepal – Presidential Elections
13 March – Grenada – Legislative Elections
14 March – Albania – Summer Day
15-16 March – Belarus – Constitution Day
15-16 March – Hungary – Public holiday
16 March – Philippines – Davao City Day
17 March – Bangladesh – Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s birthday
17 March – Indonesia – Hari Raya Nyepi
17 March – Austria – Anti-racism rally to be held in Vienna
17 March – Ireland – Patrick’s Day
17 March – France – Anti-police violence and discrimination march in Paris
17 March – Serbia – Anti-Kosovo independence protest to take place in Belgrade
17 March – Argentina – Anniversary of 1992 bombing of Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires
18 March – Mauritius – Ougadi
18 March – Russia – Presidential Election
19 March – Mexico – Benito Juarez’s Birthday
20 March – Tunisia – Independence Day
20-24 March – Persian New Year (Noruz) – Celebrated in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and elsewhere
21 March – Japan – Vernal Equinox Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 10 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 10 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 09 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

06 Mar 18: Vessel Attacked near Bonny Island, Nigeria. A merchant vessel underway at 04°04’N 006°56’E was attacked by two speedboats carrying armed attackers. The vessel was damaged by gunfire. No reports regarding crew status were released. 01 Mar 18: Suspicious Approach South-East of Takoradi, Ghana. A cargo vessel underway at 04°31’N 001°21’E was approached by two speedboats, with six and three persons onboard respectively. The cargo vessel increased speed and altered course, causing the speedboats to abort their pursuit.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

01 Mar 18: Suspicious Approach in Bab-el-Mandeb. A merchant vessel was approached by four skiffs which closed to within 0.5nm at 13°05’N 043°05’E. Ladders potentially spotted.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

06 Mar 18: State of Emergency Declared in Sri Lanka. A spate of ethnically motivated unrest in Kandy led to the Sri Lankan government imposing a nationwide state of emergency. Initial plans call for troops to be deployed in potential hotspots for a period of up to ten days. 03 Mar 18: Vessel boarded in Tanjung Priok, Indonesia. Two robbers were seen aboard the aft deck of a vessel anchored at 06°02’S, 106°53’E. Crew were alerted and the robbers fled empty handed. 10 Feb 18: (Late report) Attempted boarding, Kolkota, India. Crew aboard a bulk carrier at 22°11’N, 88°09’E, in Diamond Harbour, Kolkota, detected three persons attempting to climb the anchor from a small boat. Crew members raised the alarm and the attackers fled.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 09 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 09 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 09

Headlines From This Week

Severe Cold Weather in the UK and Europe – The United Kingdom was caught between two competing weather systems from 28 February to 02 March; winds bringing cold air from Siberia, dubbed “the beast from the east”, clashed with Storm Emma which approached from the Atlantic. Widespread disruption was reported across Europe as atypical levels of snowfall and low temperatures led to challenging conditions for travel. Numerous instances of public transport vehicles becoming stranded with passengers. Rural areas are likely to remain isolated for a number of days.
Student Protests in Lima – Thousands of Peruvian students took to the streets of Lima on 24 February in response to recent legislation they named the “Youth Slavery Law”. The legislation would allow companies to hire students as unpaid interns for periods of up to three years, and was approved by legislators on 21 February. Police prevented the march from approaching the parliament and used teargas to force their dispersion.
Insurgent Attacks in Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad – Numerous attacks were reported over the last week across the Nigeria-Cameroon border region, and in the vicinity of Lake Chad. These attacks followed the kidnap of at least 100 school girls from Nigeria’s Dapchi. The attacks have been credited to the Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram. The motive for this spike in violence remains unclear. There have been additional reports of violence due to clashes between villagers and Fulani tribesmen in the area.
Curfew Imposed in the Maldives – The Maldivian government imposed a curfew from 2230hrs until sunrise across the entire archipelago. The measure is intended to prevent the small anti-government protests and political gatherings which have been increasingly frequent over the past three months, particularly since President Yameen’s recent efforts to bring the judiciary and legislature under executive control. The detention of high-profile opposition leaders has fragmented the opposition to the grass-roots level. It is unlikely that this curfew will have any significant impact on the Maldives’s tourist resorts, however caution is advised after dark, particularly in the capital Malé.
Attack in Burkina Faso – On the morning of 02 March, the French Embassy and Army Headquarters in Burkina Faso’s Ouagadougou came under attack. Four attackers have reportedly been killed at the Embassy and three at the Army Headquarters. There is no word on civilian casualties at the time of writing and while it is also unclear which group conducted the attack, Al Qaeda are present and active in the Sahel region. Al Qaeda have previously conduct high-profile attacks on foreign and government locations in Burkina Faso’s capital city.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Corruption Protests in Tel Aviv – The recent scandal which has embroiled Israeli president Netanyahu is continuing to cause disruption across Israel. Opposition and anti-corruption protesters are due to hold further rallies in Tel Aviv on 03 March. Previous protests have attracted several thousand people, although violence has not been reported. Further revelations in the corruption case are likely to lead to protests growing in size. Police are unlikely to use excessive force against protesters; police support for the corruption charges demonstrates significant independence from the country’s political leadership.
Italian Elections – Italians are set to go to the polls on 04 March in elections which could define or alter the future of the Eurozone and the European Union. Recent polling data suggests that the right-wing coalition is set to be the victor, but no party or political groups is predicted to gain the 40 per cent required to form a government. This could lead to some form of grand coalition. The election has seen the rise of the right, with former-Prime Minister Berlusconi and the Lega Nord coming to the fore.
International Women’s Day – International Women’s Day, officially 08 March, is likely to be marked by rallies and protests on the weekends of 03-04 March, and 10-11 March. In light of the #metoo movement, and revelations of sexual crimes in many western countries, these marches should be expected to attract wider support and attendance than normal. Travellers should monitor local media to remain aware of any protests planned in their area and make appropriate plans to bypass any demonstrations. Such events are unlikely to become violent but may cause travel disruption.
Sierra Leone General Election – The election due for 07 March will be the first of two rounds of voting involved in the election of the Sierra Leone president. The incumbent President Koroma is not standing, having reached his constitutionally mandated term limit. Candidates from five parties are competing for the position. Some controversy has surrounded the timing of the vote as it sits outside the five years and three months period stated in the constitution, however there is no indication that this will lead to significant unrest, or that it marks an effort to undermine democratic norms.
ELN Unilateral Ceasefire – On 09 March, the Colombian rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN) are due to begin a unilateral ceasefire until 13 March. It is unclear whether this is the prelude to reopening peace negotiations, however the effectiveness of the ceasefire cannot be assured. Colombia is home to multiple insurgent groups, including cells which have fragmented away from centralised control. In combination with criminal gangs, these smaller groups are likely to continue violent actions throughout the ceasefire period.

Significant Dates and Events

03 March – Bulgaria Liberation Day
03 March – Malawi – Liberation Day
03 March – Israel – Anti-corruption march in Tel Aviv
03 March – Canada – International Women’s Day march in Toronto
03 March – United States – International Women’s Day march in Los Angeles
03 March – Indonesia – Women’s Rights march to be held in Jakarta
04 March – West Bank & Gaza – Israeli Borders to re-open after Purim holiday
04 March – El Salvador – General Election
04 March – France – Paris Semi-Marathon to cause road closures
05 March – Australia – Labour Day
05 March – Greece – Morning and evening rush-hour rail workers strike
06 March – Greece – 24 hour rail workers strike
06 March – Ghana – Independence Day
07 March – Sierra Leone – General Elections
07 March – Ecuador – Residents to protest toll road in Cuenca city
08 March – Worldwide – International Women’s Day
08 March – Uruguay – Women’s Rights march in Montevideo
08 March – France – International Women’s Day protests planned in Paris
08 March – Syria – Revolution Day
11 March – Lithuania – Restoration of Independence Day
11 March – Lesotho – Moshoeshoe’s Day
12 March – Australia – Canberra and Labour Day
12 March – Commonwealth – Commonwealth Day
12 March – Zambia – Youth Day
12 March – Belize – National Heroes and Benefactors Day
12 March – Mauritius – National Day
14 March – Albania – Summer Day
15-16 March – Belarus – Constitution Day
15-16 March – Hungary – Public holiday.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 09 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 09 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 06

Headlines From This Week

Former-Prime Minister Sentenced in Bangladesh – Former-Prime Minister and current opposition leader in Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, has been sentenced to five years in prison on corruption charges. Zia and her supporters have called the claims politically-motivated. Clashes occurred outside of the courthouse as the sentence came down on 08 February. One fatality has been reported as well as 25 injuries.

Winter Olympics Begin – The Opening Ceremony for the 2018 Winter Olympics took place in Pyeongchang, South Korea on 09 February. The Games have been overshadowed by the threat of North Korea. However, Pyongyang has sent an Olympic delegation and has entered competitors in a series of different sports including women’s ice hockey, where North and South Korea will field a single, combined team. Some anti-Pyongyang protests have occurred at North Korean events, as well as before the Opening Ceremony.

Deadly Earthquake in Taiwan – At least ten people were killed and 270 injured after a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck north of the Taiwanese city of Hualien on 06 February. A series of significant aftershocks have hampered search and rescue attempts. At the latest count, seven people remain unaccounted for.

Economic Instability – Global stock markets faced a volatile week. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell by more than 1,000 points on 08 February, this followed similar losses on 05 February. These losses come amid recent stock market records. Share prices in Asia and Europe have faced similar volatility which have been attributed to concerns over inflation, the US budget deal, and a potential interest rate rise. The US government was briefly shutdown for the second time in month overnight on the 08-09 February, but US lawmakers eventually passed a budget to fund the government for two years. The budget will increase spending in a number of areas, including defence, where spending will rise nine per cent.

US Airstrike in Syria – The United States conducted a series of air and artillery strikes in Deir al-Zour province, Syria overnight on 07 February, targeting government forces. Commentators have suggested that United States has drawn a line in the sand and wants to prevent pro-regime troops from recovering territory east of Euphrates River, which is currently held by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Syrian President Assad has labelled the attack, which killed 100 of 500 advancing troops, a “brutal massacre”.

Post-Election Violence in Guinea – At least seven people have been killed in post-election riots in the west African nation of Guinea. Local elections took place on 04 February and were the first since the end of a period of military rule; riots occurred amid electoral fraud allegations. Further unrest is expected as full results will only be released on 09 February.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Lunar New Year – The Lunar New Year, commonly known as Chinese New Year, begins on 16 February. Celebrations occur not only in China but across East Asia with Vietnam, Japan, Korea, and Mongolia all celebrating their own traditions. Other New Year events should be expected in locations with significant populations of those of East Asian origin. Travellers should expect extensive travel delays in countries in East Asia as well as disruption of government and official affairs.

Munich Security Conference – The 54^th Munich Security Conference, a leading international forum on security policy, is set to take place between 16 and 18 February, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich, Germany. More than 20 heads of state and government and around 75 foreign and defence ministers are expected to attend. 4,000 police officers are due to be deployed and several road closures will be put in place; trams will not stop at Karlsplatz. A rally has already been announced in opposition to the conference for 17 February, with around 4,000 activists set to attend. Police are also anticipating 20 more smaller gatherings.

ELN Three-Day National Blockade – The National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group in Colombia are due to hold a 72-hour national blockade beginning at 0600 hours on 10 February, to protest the government’s suspension of peace negotiations. In western Colombia, especially coastal Choco province where the group is active, citizens are encouraged not to travel, as transport on roads and waterways will be halted. Some violence should be expected during this period.

Significant Dates and Events

09-14 February – Carnival celebrations (notably Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
10 February – Fenkil Day (Commemorates the Battle of Massawa), Eritrea
11 February – Youth Day, Cameroon
11 February – Victory of Islamic Revolution Day, Iran
11 February – Foundation Day, Japan
12 February – Myanmar Unity Day
14 February – Anniversary of 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (Lebanon)
15 February – Liberation Day, Afghanistan
16 February – Statehood Day, Serbia
16 February – Anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s birthday

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 06 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 06 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 05

Headlines From This Week

A Further Terror Attack in Kabul – A suicide bombing in Kabul killed at least 95 people on 27 January. More than 150 others were wounded as Taliban attackers drove an ambulance laden with explosives past a police checkpoint in one of the most secure areas of the Afghan capital. This comes a week after the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul was also attacked by Taliban gunmen.

Dozens Feared Drowned off Libyan Coast – 90 migrants are feared dead after their boat capsized off the Libyan coast. Three survivors suggested that those who drowned were predominantly Pakistani. At least ten bodies have washed ashore in Libya at the time of writing. Overall this year, it has been reported that there have been 6,624 arrivals of migrants by sea to Europe, up from 5,983 in the same period of 2017.

Mass Unrest Across Russia – Protests were recorded in at least 100 locations across Russia on 28 January as citizens, led by anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, called for a boycott of elections in March 2018. Navalny was one of more than 250 protestors who were detained by police, but he was subsequently released.

Ex-Leader of Maldives to Contest Elections – Former President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, is to return to the country from exile to contest elections. This comes after the Supreme Court quashed his 2015 terrorism charges as being ‘politically motivated’. The Supreme Court’s decision saw opposition supporters take to the streets in celebration; two were arrested after clashes with police. The country became a democracy in 2008 but freedoms have been restricted since President Yameen took power in 2013. Yameen’s response is unclear at this time, though Maldives police have vowed to adhere to the ruling.

State of Emergency Declared in Ecuador – The Ecuadoran government declared a state of emergency in the cities of San Lorenzo and Eloy Alfaro following an improvised explosive device attack against a local police headquarters. There were no fatalities, but 14 officers were wounded, and the building was rendered unusable. Armed groups connected to drug cartels are believed to be responsible for the attack.

Nairobi Opposition Protests – Following a mock inauguration ceremony on 30 January for Raila Odinga, the primary opposition presidential candidate, his supporters have launched widespread protests in predominantly opposition-supporting areas of Kenya, Nairobi especially. A number of prominent opposition leaders have also been arrested by security forces in relation to the event, and three television networks have been taken off the air by the government for attempting to televise the inauguration, further aggravating protestors.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Winter Olympics to Begin – The 2018 Winter Olympics are scheduled to start in Pyeongchang, South Korea, on 09 February. While the presence of North Korea hangs over proceedings, it has athletes competing at the Games, making aggressive moves by Pyongyang unlikely. Travel disruption should be expected across South Korea.

Referendum in Ecuador – On 04 February, Ecuador will go to the polls to vote on a series of constitutional amendments, one of which reinstates term limits. This would make it impossible for the populist former President Rafael Correa to return to power. Correa has led the campaign against the proposed amendments which have been promoted by President Moreno, thought by many to be Correa’s handpicked successor. It was also believed Moreno would step aside when his term ended to allow Correa to return to power. Unrest is possible during the vote period.

Carnival – Carnival is celebrated across the world and marks a final major party before the Christian festival of Lent. Carnival is especially popular in the Americas. Crime rates spike in the lead up to, and during, Carnival festivities, particularly across Central and South America. The largest celebrations occur in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where the 2018 Carnival begins on 09 February and ends on 14 February, the day Lent begins.

Significant Dates & Events

03 February – Public transport strikes planned from Helsinki airport
03 February – Anti-corruption protests scheduled in Tel Aviv
04 February – American football Super Bowl in Minneapolis
04 February – Costa Rican legislative and presidential elections
04 February – Planned protests against Macedonia’s naming in Athens
04 February – Anniversary of 1992 failed coup by Hugo Chávez (unrest a potential in Venezuela)
05 February – Algerian paramedics to strike
05 February – Public hospital workers strike across Haiti
06-11 February – Major cycling event in Dubai
09 February – Portuguese airline crew scheduled to start industrial action

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 05 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 05 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

February 2018 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – February 2018 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The February 2018 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04

Headlines From This Week

World Economic Forum – The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, ends on 26 January. The event saw substantially less activist activity than was anticipated, with approximately 2,000 protesters demonstrating in Zurich. Approximately 20 protesters managed to breach the security cordon in the town of Davos itself, but they were dispersed peacefully by police.
Turkish Incursion into Syria – Turkish forces, supported by militants from the Free Syrian Army launched an operation to clear Kurdish militia groups from the northern Syrian area of Afrin. The Turkish military objectives appear to remain limited, the assault was likely intended to enhance Turkey’s negotiating position with the US and other coalition partners engaged in the region against Islamic State.
Major attacks in Jalalabad and Kabul – The Afghan branches of both the Taliban and Islamic State launched major attacks in Afghanistan. The Taliban conducted an explosives and small arms attack on the Kabul Intercontinental hotel on 20 January, which had recently handed its security measures to a private company. 42 people were killed, 17 of which were foreign nationals. The Islamic State attacked the Save the Children charity’s offices in Jalalabad on 24 January, resulting in two fatalities and leaving 12 wounded.
US Government Shutdown – The US Government experienced a three-day shut down between 20 and 22 January. This resulted in a cessation of all “non-essential” services, with government employees responsible for the provision of these services asked to stay home without pay. A political compromise in the Senate led to a short-term funding bill to end the shutdown, but a further shutdown is likely in February.
IED Attack in Benghazi – Two car bombs were detonated in a residential area of Benghazi on 23 January, the second blast was timed to target those who gathered to help victims of the first blast. A total of 33 people were killed, and 47 wounded. It is believed that the attack was carried out by a cell of Islamic State insurgents who remain in the city despite the organisation’s military defeat.
Tsunami Warnings Across the West Coast of North America – An earthquake of approximately magnitude 8.2 struck south of Kodiak Island in Alaska, resulting in the issuing of tsunami warnings throughout the eastern pacific, particularly the US and Canada’s western seaboards. No damage was reported as a result of the quake due to the distance from major inhabited areas; waves measuring approximately 0.3m were reported, however, but had no impact as they occurred well offshore.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Australian Tennis Open – Australia is scheduled to hold its 2018 tennis finals on 27 – 28 January. Australia has suffered occasional, lone wolf, terror attacks in recent years, including an as-yet unclassified attack on a police officer on 26 January 2018. Travellers should expect high levels of security around the venue in Melbourne.
Thaipusam Festival – The 2018 Thaipusam festival will be held in Malaysia on 31 January. Additional security measures should be expected around Hindu temple locations, and service provision is likely to be reduced due to business closures related to the holiday.
Cost of Living Protests in Khartoum – The opposition-planned protests due to be held in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, on 31 January are likely to result in significant disruption and possible violence. Sudanese security forces responded with force to small-scale, spontaneous, demonstrations over the month of January, and are likely to respond in a similar manner to more widespread incidents.

Significant Dates & Events

27 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
27 January – Opposition protests scheduled in Tirana, Albania
27 January – Anti-Trump marches planned in Washington DC
27-28 January – Extensive maintenance to disrupt Mumbai’s rail network
28 January – Finnish presidential elections
28 January – Cyprus presidential elections
28 January – Opposition protests scheduled in major cities throughout Russia
29 January – Italian high-speed rail workers to strike
30 January – Opposition and anti-corruption protests planned in Lima.
31 January – Anti-government protests in Khartoum, Sudan, due to increasing food costs
01 February – Air Do cancelled 26 flights from Japan due to a pilot shortage

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 043 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 03 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

10-16 Jan 18: Product Tanker Hijacked Beninr. A tanker was hijacked off Benin on 10 January. The crew and vessel were released and reported safe in Lagos following contact between vessel owner and pirates.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

20 Jan 18: 41 Somali Pirates Released. Indian authorities released 41 of 117 Somali pirates held in Indian jails. They were deported from Mumbai to Mogadishu, before being released to return home. There are no measure in place to monitor their actions after their release.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

19 Jan 18: Abu Sayyaf Released Fishermen. The Philippine insurgent group, Abu Sayyaf, released two Indonesian fishermen which had been held hostage since November 2016. The release was allegedly in response to negotiations between the Philippine and Indonesian governments and Abu Sayyaf. It is unclear what, if any, concessions were made. 17 Jan 18: ReCAAP Capacity Building Summit. The regional anti-piracy group held a summit in Singapore to address cooperation and capacity building among member nations. Senior naval or coastguard personnel from 17 nations were present. 17 Jan 18: Attempted Attack on Tug Boat in Malacca States. A tug boat operating in the Malacca Straits reported an attempted boarding by an unspecified number of robbers. Vessel and crew were reported safe.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 03 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 03 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 02 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

15 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding in Lagos Anchorage. A tanker anchored in location 06°18’05”N 03°23’61”E was conducting ship-to-ship operations when crew noticed robbers attempting to board the vessel. Search lights were directed at the boarders, and crew mustered. The robbers fled 13 Jan 18: Product Tanker Missing near Benin. A tanker has been reported missing with all 22 crew members. Last AIS reported location on 09 Jan at 06°11’51″N 02°28’11″E . 08 Jan 18: Attempted Cargo Theft near Lagos. A tanker at anchor in position 06°19’00”N 03°20’00”E reported two robbers boarded the vessel and attempted to install hoses to steal cargo. Both robbers jumped overboard when challenged.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

02 Jan 18: Suspicious Approach in Bab el Mandeb Strait. An MV in location 12°13’00”N 043°29’10”E was approached by two small vessels with five persons aboard each with their faces obscured. Approach was aborted at approximately 500m.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

08 Jan 18: Attempted boarding in Samarinda Anchorage. Duty personnel spotted a number of persons trying to climb a bulk carrier’s anchor chain from a small boat at 0°16’15”S, 117°43’01”E. The robbers fled as the foghorn was sounded.

Click link to Download PDF: 20180115 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 02 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 50 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02

Headlines From This Week

California Mudslide – At least 17 people were killed by mudslides on 09 January in Santa Barbara County, California. On 12 January, the search for survivors entered a fourth day; the number of missing could be as high as 43 according to local officials. A mandatory evacuation zone has been put in place.
Protests Against Ex-President’s Pardon – Protests have continued this week in Peru after the decision to pardon ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was convicted of human rights’ abuses and corruption. Protestors have also called for the resignation of incumbent President Kuczynski who granted the pardon; Kuczynski has been accused of granting the pardon in return for support against an impeachment vote.
Deadly Protests in Tunisia – Protests against the government’s 2018 budget bill have turned violent this week. The government has reported that 21 people have died but some rights groups suggest that the real number could be more than double this. Security forces have so far reported 778 arrests. Further protests are expected, partly in response to the government’s reaction to the protests.
ELN-Government Talks Breakdown – This week marked the end of negotiations between the guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the government. The move comes after the rebel group conducted a series of attacks immediately after the ceasefire between the two entities expired on 10 January.
‘Bread Protests’ in Sudan – Reports suggest that at least three people have been killed in ‘bread protests’ in Sudan. Protests occurred after the government decided to cut subsidies, which led to price rises. Protests have been ongoing since 07 January and look set to continue.
East China Sea Maritime Incident – An Iranian-owned oil vessel has been ablaze since 06 January after it collided with another vessel in the East China Sea. It has since drifted into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The vessel was en route to South Korea with almost one million barrels of oil aboard. One body, believed to have been one of the vessel’s crew has been recovered; the other 32 sailors remain missing.
Iran Sanctions – President Trump looks set to renew the Iran nuclear deal according to officials in Washington DC. However, his administration is expected to add economic sanctions on Iranian businesses and individuals for support of terrorist groups across the Middle East and other misconduct. The United States’ European partners had been keen to see the deal continue, causing some cross-Atlantic friction since President Trump took office.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pope Francis to Visit South America – Heightened security and travel disruptions are expected during Peru’s papal visit between 18 and 21 January. Pope Francis is due to visit Lima, Puerto Maldonado, and Trujillo. Before Peru, Francis is set to visit Chile, with Santiago, Temuco, and Iquique the primary locations of his visit.
Australian Tennis Open Begins – The first of four ‘Grand Slams’, the Australian tennis open is due to take place between 15 and 28 January. The event takes place in Melbourne Park, Melbourne. Enhanced security measures and travel delays should be expected in the area. Protests are also possible given that one stadium which is hosting matches is named after Margaret Court who has been criticised for having homophobic views.
2018 Women’s March – An anniversary event for the 2017 Women’s march is set to take place on 20 January. The primary event is set to take place in Las Vegas in the United States, with sister marches occurring in Europe, South America, Asia, and Australasia. While disruption is likely, protests are not expected to turn violent.

Significant Dates & Events

13 January – Separatist groups plan strikes in Jammu and Kashmir
13 January – Airport workers are to rally in Nadi, Fiji
14 January – Hindu festival of Makar Sankranti
14 January – Christian Orthodox New Year
14 January – Revolution and Youth Day, Tunisia
14 January – Day of Defenders of the Motherland, Uzbekistan
14 January – Tamil Thai Pongal Day, Sri Lanka
15 January – Martin Luther King Day in the United States
15 January – John Chilembwe Day, Malawi
16-17 January – Heroes’ Day in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 02 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 01 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

01 Jan 18: Robbery in Apapa, Lagos. A Tanker awaiting cargo operations was boarded by four men whilst berthed. The robbers escaped with two jerrycans of grease when the alarm was raised. The shore watchman was found to have abandoned his post. All crew were reported safe.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

07 Jan 18: Saudi Led Coalition Sank Houthi Vessel. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Saudi-led coalition may have sunk a Yemeni patrol boat operated by Houthi rebels near the Yemeni port of Al Hudaydah. 06 Jan 18: Three Suspicious Approaches reported in the Red Sea. Three merchant vessels reported suspicious approaches by three grey, rigid-hulled boats, carrying weapons and at least six persons on board. Suspicious vessels approached to within 200m before changing course. All vessels reported safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

06 Jan 18: Tanker Collision in East China Sea. An oil condensate carrier collided with a grain carrier off of the Yangtze Delta. The tanker remains on fire, with a significant risk of explosion, and the state of the 32 crew is unknown. 21 crew members were rescued from the grain carrier. Multinational efforts to resolve the situation are ongoing. 05 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding of Bulk Carrier near Port Dickson. The crew of a bulk carrier noticed a small speedboat with five persons onboard attempting to fix a hook to the vessel at 02°27’04”N, 101°39’11”E. Vessel crew mustered with firehoses and the suspicious boat moved away. 03 Jan 18: Japanese Coast Guard Enhance Missile Warning System. In response to the increased threat of North Korean ballistic missile tests, the Japanese Coast Guard has implemented a partially automated alarm system in order to speed up the process of warning vessels in Japanese waters. Previous missile tests have landed in the Japanese exclusive economic zone. 03 Jan 18: Attempted boarding in Samarinda Anchorage. Duty personnel spotted five persons trying to climb a bulk carrier’s anchor chain from a small boat at0°16’22”S, 117°36’11”E. The robbers fled as the alarm was raised.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 01 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 50 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01

Headlines From The Week

Positive Moves on the Korean Peninsula – In a surprising move, President Kim stated his intention to consider opening dialogue with South Korea to cover North Korea’s involvement in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics which begin in February 2018. North Korea’s involvement in the Games is likely to decrease the possibility of military tests or an attack during the event. Planned US-South Korea military drills which were due to take place during the Games have been postponed; Pyongyang views these annual drills as provocation.
Unrest in the DRC – An estimated 12 people were killed in renewed protests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Dozens more were injured and more than 120 arrested in widespread anti-government protests, as demonstrators called on President Kabila to step down and respect a 2016 political agreement in which he had pledged to allow for new elections before the end of that year.
Storm Grayson Strikes the USA – Storm Grayson has caused hazardous travel conditions along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The storm has brought strong winds, heavy snowfall, and freezing conditions. At least 12 deaths have been attributed to the cold, more than 2,700 flights have been cancelled, and tens of thousands have been left without power. States of emergency have been issued in certain locations.
Iranian Protests Continue – Violent protests have continued throughout Iran, with unrest reported in more than 70 cities. More than 20 people have said to have been killed, though security forces have been relatively calm in their response, compared to previous cases of unrest, refraining from widespread aggression.
Brazil Prison Break – At least 77 inmates escaped from a jail in the central state of Goias in Brazil on 01 January. The breakout occurred after a riot in the jail between two rival criminal gangs; nine prisoners were killed and 14 injured. Brazil’s jails are notoriously overcrowded with violence an endemic issue.
Kabul Terror Attack – At least 20 people were killed and 30 more were killed in a terror attack in the Afghan capital of Kabul on 04 January. Authorities have reported that a suicide bomber targeted police officers who were handling a protest. The Afghan affiliate of Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks.
US Security Aid to Pakistan Cut – The US government announced plans to cut almost all of its security aid to Pakistan, claiming that it has failed to deal with terror groups operating within its borders, despite Pakistan being a key regional ally. The move has been praised by India and Afghanistan; though China, which has invested heavily in Pakistan, has come to its defence.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Orthodox Christmas and the Epiphany – Orthodox Christians are to celebrate their Christmas on the 06-07 January. This may cause some disruptions in Orthodox countries, notably in Eastern Europe. Other Christians around the world also celebrate the Epiphany religious holiday on the same dates, this is likely to cause limited disruption.
North-South Korea Talks – The first of high-level talks between Pyongyang and Seoul since December 2015 are set to take place at the ‘truce village’ of Panmunjom on 09 January. These talks, proposed by Seoul after President Kim’s new year message, are set to cover the potential for North Korea’s involvement in the upcoming Winter Olympics, to be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea in February. The participation of North Korea is set to improve the security of the Games. It is also hoped that other issues can be discussed during this meeting. It is unclear, at present, why President Kim offered this olive branch in his New Year’s Day message.

Significant Dates & Events

06 January – Pro-Kurdish march to take place in Paris.
06 January – Anti-Corruption march to take place in Tel Aviv.
07 January – Northern Cyprus elections.
07 January – Victory over Genocide Day (Cambodia).
08,10,12 January – South Western Railway (UK) walkouts.
09 January – Martyrs Day (Panama).
11 January – Proclamation of Independence Day.
11 January – Air France Pilots threaten walkout.
12 January – Zanzibar Revolution Day
12-13 January – Czech Republic Presidential Elections.
12-15 January – Hungarian Civil Service plan to strike.
12 January – Norway’s FlyViking airline to cease operations.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 01 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52

Headlines From This Week

Coptic Church Attacked in Egypt – Gunmen opened fire on a Coptic church in Helwan, south of Cairo on 29 December. Preliminary reporting suggested that ten worshippers were killed before police shot and killed the attackers.
Explosion in Saint Petersburg – An explosive device was detonated in a Perekrestok supermarket in central Saint Petersburg on 27 December. At least 13 people were wounded in the explosion which the Russian authorities are treating as a terrorist incident. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Liberian Election Results Announced – George Weah was announced as the winner of the Liberian presidential election following a delayed and protracted vote-counting process. Provided his inauguration in January occurs as planned, it will mark Liberia’s first democratic and peaceful transfer of power.
41 Killed in Kabul Suicide Bombing – The Islamic State’s Afghan off-shoot claimed responsibility for a suicide attack at a Shi’ite event in western Kabul. The attack resulted in at least 41 killed, and over 80 wounded, the majority of which were civilians. Two other explosions followed the attack in an apparent effort to target emergency responders and those fleeing the first blast.
Venezuelan Diplomatic Crisis – The Venezuelan ambassador to Brazil was declared persona non-grata by Brazil following Venezuela’s expulsion of Brazil’s ambassador over the Christmas weekend. The Canadian ambassador was also expelled from Venezuela due to Canada’s imposition of sanctions. Canada is likely to reciprocate and expel the Venezuelan mission.
Iran Protests – Several hundred protesters demonstrated in Mashhad against high prices and the government’s foreign policies. At least 52 people were detained by police, who deployed teargas and water cannons against the crowds. Clerical officials have called for harsh treatment of those arrested.
South Korea Seized an Alleged North Korean Smuggling Vessel – The South Korean authorities seized a Hong Kong flagged tanker which had illegally conducted ship-to-ship transfers of oil to North Korean tankers in defiance of international sanctions. The vessel’s owner remains unclear, however senior members of the United States’ administration have accused China of assisting North Korea in circumventing the sanctions.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Gregorian New Year – New Year’s celebrations are planned across the world for 31 December to 01 January. Many nations have national holidays over these dates and travellers should expect reduced provision of services across most industries, in addition to disruption due to festive events. Travellers should remain aware that New Year’s celebrations have previously been targeted by terror groups seeking mass casualties, as well as criminal groups focused on robbery or sexual assaults. Major cities, including London, New York, Istanbul, and Berlin have implemented substantially heightened security measures.
Continued Protests in Lima – Civil unrest in Peru’s capital, Lima, is highly likely to continue following the pardoning of a former president who was jailed for corrupt practices whilst in office. The current president, Pedro Kuczynski, recently avoided impeachment due to corruption charges. His use of the pardon in this instance reignited substantial public anger.

Significant Dates & Events

31 December – New Year’s Eve
31 December – Workers to stage 24 hour strike on London’s Docklands Light Railway and Southwest Rail
01 January – New Year’s Day
01 January – Cuba celebrates Liberation Day
01 January – Haiti celebrates Independence Day
01 January – Sudan celebrates Independence Day
04 January – Railway staff to strike in Eindhoven.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 52 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51

Headlines From This Week

Ramming Incident in Melbourne – 19 people were injured after a car driver deliberately drove into pedestrians on a busy street in Melbourne, Australia on 21 December. Police have said the driver, who has been arrested, had a history of mental illness and drug abuse but no known extremist links.
Houthi Rocket Shot Down over Riyadh – Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a rocket at the Saudi Arabian king’s residence in the capital Riyadh on 19 December. The rocket was intercepted by the Saudi air force south of the capital. This marks the third such rocket attack by the Houthis on Riyadh in the last month and increases tensions in the region; Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supplying the Houthis with sophisticated weaponry.
Regional Elections in Catalonia – A snap election for the regional parliament in Catalonia was held on 21 December. Despite pro-independence parties gaining a slim, and reduced, majority in the assembly, a prounion party gained the largest share of the vote. It is unclear who will be tasked with forming a government.
UN Vote on US’ Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed a resolution which called on the USA to withdraw its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. 128 states, include the four permanent members of the UN Security Council besides the US, voted to approve the non-binding resolution, with 35 abstaining, and nine (including the US, Israel, and a host of smaller countries) voting against. The US Ambassador to the UN, warned that “the United States will remember this day.”
Clashes Continue in Anglophone Cameroon – This week saw continued clashes in the English-speaking region of Cameroon. Armed separatists killed four soldiers after attacking a military installation in Kembong and reports emerged of villages being set ablaze. 30,000 refugees have fled to Nigeria from the region.
Two Tropical Storms Strike Southeast Asia – Over the last week, Tropical Storms Kai-Tak and Tembin have made landfall on the Philippines and impacted other countries in the region. Dozens have been left dead by landslides and flooding. Kai-Tak’s path went across the Visayas whereas Tembin’s route crossed Mindanao in Philippines south. A state of emergency was declared in the wake of Tropical Storm Kai-Tak.
Peru President Survives Impeachment Vote – Congress in Peru has voted not to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski over alleged corruption. The opposition wanted to impeach him for allegedly receiving illegal payments from Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht; other political leaders in the region have been brought down by the ongoing scandal.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Liberia Presidential Election – After a delay of more than a month due to a legal challenge, the runoff vote for the presidency of Liberia is due to occur on 26 December. The contest pits George Weah, a retired football player and junior senator, against Joseph Boakai, the incumbent vice president. Weah garnered more votes in the first round, having a 10 per cent advantage over Boakai.
Further Anti-Corruption Protests in Israel – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains under pressure to resign over corruption allegations. Protestors are due to continue their demonstrations with a rally outside Tel Aviv’s Independence Hall on 23 December at 2000 hours local time, and further gatherings in Paris and Zion Squares of Jerusalem from 1700 and 1800 hours respectively.
Anti-Corruption Protests in Romania – Anti-corruption activists are to rally in various cities of Romania on 23 December. Rallies are due to occur between 1400 and 1600 hours local time, with the largest protest due to begin in Bucharest’s Victory Square. Protestors are opposing judicial reforms proposed in Romania.

Significant Dates & Events

23 December – Sindh sugar cane workers to protest
23 December – Anti-US protests outside US Embassy in Prague. Czech Republic
23-24 December – UK CrossCountry Rail staff to strike
25 December – Christmas Day
26 December – Boxing Day
26 December – Macedonian railway workers to strike
27 December – Greater Anglia staff to strike in the UK

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 51 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.