Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38

Headlines From This Week

Protests in Ethiopia – Thousands of people marched in Addis Ababa on 17 September to denounce the deadly ethnic violence on the outskirts of the capital. The civil unrest caused traffic disruption and businesses were forced to shut. Reports state that five demonstrators were killed in clashes that erupted with security personnel. This unrest coincides with an unprecedented political relaxation under new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed. With the president having invited many Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) leaders to return to Ethiopia from exile on 15 September.
Inter-Korea Summit in Pyongyang – From 18 to 20 September the third Inter-Korea summit took place in Pyongyang. The meeting, the third so far this year, between Moon Jae-in, President of South Korea, and Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, and Supreme Leader of North Korea, was to address ways to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula and continue the dialogue for denuclearisation.
Storm Ali Triggers Weather Warnings across the UK – The MET office issued weather warnings for the whole of the UK this week after Storm Ali swept through the country. Winds of up to 102 mph triggered loss of power and mobile phone signals. High winds have also impacted flight schedules, causing cancellations in multiple airports throughout the United Kingdom. Two fatalities have been confirmed; in Ireland, a woman died when her caravan was blown off a cliff, while a man in his twenties was killed by a falling tree in County Armagh. Storm Ali comes after months of unsettling weather, such as the hottest summer on record.
Shooting in Mexico City on Independence Day Weekend – Three gunman disguised as traditional mariachi musicians killed five people and wounded eight others in Garibaldi Plaza, an iconic tourism attraction in Mexico City on 15 September. After the attack the gunmen fled the scene on motorbikes. Reports suggest that the attack was targeted to a specific restaurant by an organised group. At present, police have two people in custody and more arrests are expected as the investigation continues. Official figures show that in Mexico City, crime levels have increased since 2006, when the government declared war on organised crime.
Vietnamese President Dies of Illness – Vietnam President Tran Dai Quang has died at the age of 61 after a prolonged viral illness on 21 September. The country’s number two after the ruling Communist Party leader, died at the National Military Hospital in Hanoi after he fell into a coma. Quang appeared unwell when he last appeared in public at a meeting with the ruling Communist Party and a reception for a foreign delegation last week. National media suggests that Vietnam’s National Assembly is scheduled to convene a session in the coming weeks where a new president will be elected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Election in Osun State — Nigeria’s Osun State Elections will be held on 22 September to decide which local governor will be elected for the region. The ruling APC party (All Progressive Party) seek to retain power with the opposition PDP (People’s Democratic Party). These elections have previously led to widespread violence in the state and recently a local senator, who was also thought to be a frontrunner in the campaign was murdered. On 21 September candidates from both parties signed an agreement to ensure honest and transparent elections.
Nationwide demonstrations in Niger – Civil society groups and opposition parties have called for nationwide demonstrations on 23 September to denounce the 2018 Finance Act. Protests are often held in Niger against taxes and they often turn violent. It is one of the world’s poorest nations and its economy has been badly hit by falls in oil prices, of which it is a major exporter. Local media reports that protesters will gather in the main cities especially in the capital Niamey.
Protests in Basra – The Basra Protest Coordination Committee called for a large protest to be held on 23 September in Basra, to denounce the government’s delayed response to their requests regarding better water services and the release of individuals arrested during past demonstrations. Protests in the Iraqi city of Basra have seen an escalation of violence. Since the first wave of protests in July 2018, residents have denounced water and electricity shortages and the corruption among official authorities. Media reports that several people have been killed and government buildings such as the Iranian consulate, set on fire.
Saudi Arabia’s National Day – Saudi Arabian National day is always celebrated on 23 September since 1932, and marks when King Abdulaziz announced the unification of the nation as a kingdom. Saudi National Day is celebrated all over the nation with traditional celebrations. It is common to see roads and buildings decorated with flags.
Anti-Erdogan Rally – The German Federation of Journalists and Amnesty International are set to hold a joint protest against Turkish president Erdogan during his official state visit in Berlin on 28 of September. Several activists groups and politicians have highly criticised Berlin’s decision to host the Turkish President, especially in light of Turkey’s crackdown on political dissenters and censorship, and breach of freedom of expression.

Significant Dates and Events

20-27 September – Azerbaijan – Judo: World Championships in Baku
22 September – Mali – Independence Day
22 September – Nigeria – Election in Osun state region
22 September – Poland – Trade unions to demonstrate in Warsaw
22 September – Russia – Trade workers protest in Yekaterinburg
22 September – Brazil – Anti-abortion activists to demonstrate in Fortaleza
22-23 September – United Kingdom – TfL service disruption between Paddington and Heathrow, London
22 September – 06 October – Cameroon – Electoral campaign begins
23 September – Austria — The 2018 UCI Road World Championships Austria in Innsbruck
23 September – Maldives — Presidential election
23 September – Saudi Arabia – National Day
23 September – Niger – Nationwide demonstrations against 2018 Finance Act
23 September – Mexico – Disruption to water supply in Mexico City
23 September – Romania – Anti-government protests in Bucharest
23 September – Afghanistan – Protests in Basra
24 September – Guinea Bissau – National Day
24 September – China – Mid-Autumn festival
24 September – Spain – Protests in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, over pension reforms
25 September – Argentina – General nationwide strike
27 September – Curaçao – Gay Pride Parade
28-30 September – France – 2018 Ryder Cup at le Golf National in Paris
28 September – Germany – Anti-Erdogan rally in Berlin
28 September – Italy – Aviation workers to strike in Milan and Bologna
28 September – Saudi Arabia – Boxing: World Boxing Super Series Final WBA super-middleweight title

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: 20180921 – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 38 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

11 September 18: US and UK Navies Conduct Countermine Exercises. The exercise will take place off Djibouti, with the focus on the key choke point of the Bab el Mandeb strait. 15 September 18: Saudis Destroy Houthi Missiles Fired at Jizan Province. The missile was reported to be targeting Jizan Industrial City, however other reports suggest the target to be the Saudi Aramco oil facility. Houthi missiles are regularly reported to be fired across the border in retaliation to the ongoing airstrikes by coalition forces in Yemen. 18 September 18: 18 Fishermen Killed by Coalition Forces Off Al Khoukha, Yemen. Major media have reported a frigate attacked a fishing boat off the port of Al Khouka, killing all on board. The accusation has been denied by coalition forces. Al Khoukha currently remains under UAE military control.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

8 September 18: LATE REPORT – Clash Between Security Forces and Local Armed Group, Bonny River. On routine patrol along the Isaka/Okrika waterways, State Marine Police patrol intercepted and exchanged gunshots with unidentified armed men in a speedboat. According to police, two pirates were killed and two others arrested. Their weapons and ammunition were also seized. 17 September 18: MV Boarded in Conakry Anchorage, Guinea. The anchored vessel was boarded in location 9°20’48N, 13°34’32W at 03:10UTC. Four armed persons boarded using the anchor chain and departed the vessel after 30 minutes.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 September 2018: Container Ship Boarded by Armed Persons in Chittagong Anchorage, Bangladesh. Two robbers armed with knives boarded the anchored Liberia-flagged vessel in position 20°6’6N, 91°46’55E at 16:30UTC. Duty crew noticed the robbers and informed the master, who then raised the alarm. Hearing the alarm the pirates escaped. After a search, it was reported ship’s properties were stolen. 10 September 2018: LATE REPORT – Tanker Boarded in Tarahan Jetty, Indonesia. Two robbers boarded the Saudi-flagged chemical tanker at position 5°31’43S, 105°20’58E at 19:30UTC. The duty watchman noticed them and raised the alarm. The robbers escaped and no stolen items were reported. 11 September 2018: Bulk Carrier Boarded in Sandakan Port, Sabah, Malaysia. The incident occurred in position 5°48’5N, 118°4’9E at 20:15UTC. Alert duty crew spotted the robbers and notified the master. The crew made their way forward to the deck to investigate. The robbers escaped in their speed boat and the incident was reported to the local authority. 16 September 2018: Suspicious Approach on Underway Tanker, 4nm SW of Balabac Island, Philippines. Two skiffs approached an asphalt tanker whilst it was underway in position 7°45’14N, 117°3’95E at 03:15UTC. The alarm was raised and crew mustered. The persons on board were reported by the master to be wearing masks. Evasive manoeuvres were commenced. After five minutes the skiffs aborted their approach and moved to another vessel in the vicinity. The master informed the other vessel of the approaching skiffs by VHF. 16 September 2018: Militants Free Three Indonesian Hostages, Southern Philippines. According to local reports, the men were kidnapped in early 2017 by Abu Sayyaf militants, off Sabah state. The men were freed with the help of the Moro National Liberation Front, a rebel group which has signed a peace deal with the Philippine government in Sulu province.

Click link to Download PDF: 20180920 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 38 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 37

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Florence – Hurricane Florence is the first major hurricane of the 2018 hurricane season to hit the United States. Florence has now been downgraded to category one but is still expected to bring sustained windspeeds of up to 60mph and up to 40 inches of rain in some areas. 1.7 million people are currently under mandatory evacuation orders. North and South Carolina are expected to be the worst affected areas as Hurricane Florence is expected to stall along the coast close to Wilmington, North Carolina, bringing storm surges up to 13 foot between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout in addition to widespread flooding.

Nangarhar bomb attack – Reports indicate that at least 68 people have been killed and 165 others wounded following a suicide bomb attack in Momandara district, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, along the main highway between the regional capital Jalalabad and the Torkham border with Pakistan. The Taliban has denied any involvement in the attack and no other group has claimed responsibility, although an affiliate of the Islamic State group is active in Nangarhar province and has carried out similar attacks in the past. If the death toll is confirmed, it will be one of Afghanistan’s deadliest terror attacks this year.

Typhoon Mangkhut – Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated throughout the northern Philippines ahead of Super Typhoon Mangkhut which is currently 550 miles wide and has maximum sustained wind speeds of 173 miles per hour. The eye of the hurricane is expected to hit the northern island of Luzon on 15 September. Mangkhut has already caused widespread flooding and power outages in the American territory of Guam and 80% of the island is still without power. Thousands of troops have been placed on high alert to assist with search and rescue efforts.

Thawing Korea relations – North and South Korea have opened a liaison office, the first of its kind since the peninsula was divided at the end of World War II in 1945. The office is located on the North’s side of the border with the aim to facilitate better communication between the two governments ahead of their leaders’ three-day summit in Pyongyang next week. Prior to the opening of the office, the two Korea’s relied on telephone and fax-like communication which was often cut during times of increased tension.

Tripoli airport attack – A previously unknown group, the Tripoli Youth Movement, has claimed responsibility for a rocket attack targeting Mitiga International Airport. There were no reports of any injuries or damage at the airport, which only opened on 7 September following heavy fighting in Tripoli between rival armed groups vying for control in the cities southern districts. The group has demanded that control of the airport which is currently operated by the internationally-recognised Government National Accord (GNA), be handed back to civilian authorities. All flights into Mitiga Airport are currently being rerouted.

What To Look Out For Next Week

15 September – Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica – Independence Day celebrations will be held throughout South America to commemorate independence from Spain in 1821. The day is marked by flag raisings, patriotic displays and a national holiday. All schools will be closed, and children often perform a theatrical re-enactment. Public services are likely to be disrupted, particularly in regional and national capitals where major public festivities will be held.
Maldives Election – The popular tourist island is due to hold president elections on 23 September. President Abdulla Yameen is seeking a second five-year term, amid deep political turmoil and instability, that has seen protesters, journalists and supreme court justices arrested and imprisoned since February 2018. Opposition candidates do not believe the election will be free and fair, a charge the government denies. Protests are likely to occur during the election period, which frequently turn violent. Security forces are likely to use force to disperse any large protests.
Yom Kippur – Yom Kippur or “Day of Atonement” is the most sacred and solemn day in the Jewish calendar. It will begin on the evening of 18 September and conclude the evening of 19 September 2018. During Yom Kippur, Jews will attend synagogue and ask for forgiveness for sins committed over the past year. Five prayer services are held: Maariv, Shacharit, Musaf, Minchah, and Neilah. During Yom Kippur Jews are not permitted to work. Travel in and around Israel will be severely disrupted, all airports are closed for the duration of the holiday, and land borders with neighbouring states are also closed. Heightened security measures are likely, and Palestinian groups may seek to conduct attacks through the holiday period.
EU Leaders Summit – European Union leaders are set to discuss whether to hold a special summit on Brexit in November 2018, following a meeting in Salzburg, Austria. The summit is part of the Leaders’ Agenda and it will focus on internal security in the hope of upgrading police and judicial cooperation as well as strengthening border security and resilience in cyberspace.
Niamey protests – Protests are likely to occur outside the Tribunal de Grande Instance in Niamey on 18 September as the trial of several prominent civil society activists is set to resume. A number of activists were arrested and jailed in March 2018 after taking park in an unauthorised demonstration against the controversial 2018 budget law, which increases taxes on housing and electricity. Police are likely to respond to any protests during the trial with force which may result in injuries or fatalities.

Significant Dates and Events

06 September to 18 October – Argentina – 2018 Summer Youth Olympics in Buenos Aires
11 to 23 September – United States – World Equestrian Games in Mill Spring, North Carolina
14 to 16 September – Singapore Formula One race, road closures expected
14 to 18 September – Italy – Bologna Airport to close for maintenance
15 September – Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica – Independence Day
15 September – Nigeria – Pre-election rallies to be held in Ilorin, Kwara State
15 September – Greece – Anti-fascist rally in Athens
15 September – Mali – Opposition protests planed in Bamako
15 September – Azerbaijan – Military parade in Baku, travel disruption likely
16 September – Mexico – Independence Day
16 September – South Korea – Anti-refugee rally in Seoul
16 September – Papua New Guinea – Independence Day
16 September – Germany – pro-refugee protests in Cologne
17 September – Italy – COTRAL bus workers to strike in Lazio region
17-18 September – Israel – West Bank and Gaza border crossings closed
17 September – Austria – Protests against EU climate policy in Linz
19 September – Nepal – RJP led opposition rallies nationwide
19 September – DRC – Pro-opposition march in Kinshasa
20-21 September – Islamic Majority Countries – Ashura events likely to cause nationwide disruption
20-21 September – Portugal – Nationwide nurses’ strike
21 September – Malawi – Pro- and anti-government protests planned nationwide
22-31 September – Israel – Border-crossings with Gaza and the West Bank to be closed
22 September – Spain – Pensioners rally in Madrid
26 September – Mexico – Marches against “disappearances” planned in Tijuana
28 September – Europe – Ryanair air crew to strike
29 September – Burkina Faso – Nationwide opposition protests planned
30 September – UK – Eurostar workers to strike at St Pancras
30 September – Macedonia (FYROM) – Name change referendum, nationwide disruption likely
30 September – Iraq – Regional elections to be held in Iraqi Kurdistan

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 37 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 37 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 36 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

07 September 18: WBIED Seized by Saudi-led Coalition. Yemeni national forces, supported by the Saudi-led international coalition, intercepted a remote-controlled water-borne improvised explosive device in the Red Sea. The device was built into the hull of a speedboat, and reached speeds of 35kts. It is highly likely that the Houthi sought to target Saudi/UAE vessels with the device. There were no indications of other Houthi vessels in the vicinity of the device, possibly indicating that this version of WBIED has a longer stand-off range than devices deployed in late 2017/early 2018, which were generally controlled from a nearby mothership. September 18: Increased small boat activity. Vessels transiting the HRA reported a significant increase in small boat activity. This increase has likely been driven by the end of the monsoon season. The improving sea conditions may permit an increase in criminal use of small boats in the region.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

10 September 18: Militants Assaulted National Oil Corporation, Tripoli. A group of Islamic State insurgents attacked the NOC in Tripoli. At least four people, including two of the attackers, were killed. It remains unclear if the previous armed unrest set the conditions which enabled the attack.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

05 September 18: Nigerian Navy Deployed New Vessels. The Nigerian Navy inaugurated and deployed 16 new vessels, including coastal patrol boats and high-speed RHIBs. The vessels were immediately deployed to patrol areas around key oil installations in the Niger Delta. The deterrent effect of these vessels in coastal waters may drive thieves and pirates to conduct more ambitious attacks in deep water.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

04 August 18: LATE REPORT – Armed Robbery from Tanker near Sarawak. A tanker underway at 03°24’N 112°54’E was boarded by armed robbers at 2300LT. The attackers stole cash and personal belongings, before fleeing within 20 minutes. No crew were harmed. Perpetrators arrested by police on 17 August. 10 September 18: Armed Kidnap near Semporna. A fishing vessel underway at 04°40’N 118°43’E was boarded by armed kidnappers in the early hours, who boarded their vessel from a speedboat. Two crew members were taken, as they were unable to hide in time. Remaining crew saw the kidnappers depart in the direction of Philippine waters. 11 September 18: Fishermen Kidnapped off Sabah. Three fishermen were reported kidnapped at 0100LT. The attack occurred whilst their vessel was docked at Pulau Gaya. Local law enforcement are investigating the possibility of Philippine groups being responsible.

Iran to Move Primary Oil Terminal. The Iranian government announced its intent to establish a new oil terminal on the coast of the Oman Sea. This move would place the terminal outside the Straits of Hormuz, reducing Iranian dependence on the strategically contested waterway.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 36 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 36 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36

Headlines From This Week

Tripoli Ceasefire Agreed – After 10 days of fighting in the Libyan capital, a tentative ceasefire overseen by the UN’s Libya envoy, was agreed between rival militias on 05 September. During the fighting, hundreds of prisoners escaped and at least 50 people have been killed. The ceasefire is unlikely to hold, especially considering that elections are due to be held in December. One previously agreed truce was almost immediately broken and minor violations of this ceasefire have also been reported.

Novichok Poisonings – The US, France, Germany and Canada have supported the UK’s assessment that Russia’s government “almost certainly” approved the Salisbury Novichok poisoning. The British government has named the two men it says are responsible; they are believed to be from Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU. Russia has dismissed the evidence as “lies”. This is further evidence of the growing split between Russia and the West, with tensions rising.

Environmental Disasters in Japan – Japan was hit by twin environmental disasters this week. On 06 September, a 6.7-magnitude earthquake hit the northern island of Hokkaido, killing at least 16, leaving 26 missing, and shutting off power for half of the island’s residents. Two days before the quake, Typhoon Jebi, the strongest storm to hit the country in 25 years, left a trail of destruction and at least 10 fatalities. The major international airport at Kansai, which serves Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto, was closed due to flooding but has since reopened for domestic flights only. The airport also reported the strongest winds in Japanese history at 209kph.

Brazilian Presidential Candidate Stabbed – Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right and populist front-runner for the October presidential election in Brazil, was stabbed while at a rally in the state Minas Gerais on 06 September. Doctors expect the controversial politician to make a full recovery after suffering injuries to his intestines. Police have reported that they arrested the attacker who appears to be mentally disturbed. The election campaign has been bitterly fought with Bolsonaro’s greatest rival, ex-President Lula, imprisoned and forbidden to run.

Protests Re-Erupt in Iraq – After a period of calm, a fresh outbreak of violent unrest has erupted in Iraq, notably in the southern city of Basra. At least one person has been killed and 35 injured during the protests over poor public services which began again on 04 September. In a potentially related event, mortars were fired into Baghdad’s Green Zone, which houses Iraqi government officials and the US Embassy; no casualties or damage were reported. Further violent unrest should be expected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Swedish Elections – Sweden will go to the polls on 09 September 2018 to elect new members for the country’s parliament, the Riksdag. Early voting has already begun in the election. The Swedish Democrats, which has been described as a far-right, populist party, is on the ascendancy, with implications for political and economic stability; the Swedish Krona has already weakened against the Euro. Depending on the election result, there is a risk that Sweden will not have a government in place for an extended time period.

Russian War Games – From 11 to 15 September, Russia will host the Vostok-2018 war games alongside units from Mongolia and China. This is set to be Russia’s largest war games, with 300,000 personnel involved, since 1981. Activities will be taking place in the country’s east and is a further sign of growing tension with the west. Moscow has claimed the drills are justified.

Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashana) – Jews around the world will celebrate the Jewish New Year from 09 September to 11 September. Much time is spent at synagogues on this religious holiday, meaning disruption here is possible. Security measures are set to be stepped up in Israel particularly. Border crossings with the Palestinian territories are to be closed and a heightened security presence is expected at these locations.

Catalonia National Day – 11 September marks the National Day of Catalonia in Spain. It is a day-long festival which commemorates the fall of Barcelona during the War of Spanish Succession. Travellers can expect significant unrest in Catalonia on this day, with well-attended protests expected in Barcelona as well as other large Catalan cities. On 09 September, anti-secessionist activists will march from Avenida del Paralelo to Plaza de España. Previous protests have seen clashes between protesters and security officials.

Islamic New Year (Muharram) – The first day of the Islamic year is 11 September, with the New Year technically beginning at sunset on 10 September. Disruption should be expected, particularly within the vicinity of mosques, as many Muslim-majority nations hold public holidays. For Shia Muslims in particular, the New Year is a time of pilgrimage.

Biafra General Strike – A pro-Biafra Independence Group, the Indigenous People of Biafra, has announced a general strike for 14 September to take place in areas of Nigeria where the Biafra people are present. This is predominantly the south and southeast of Nigeria. The strike is not expected to occur with protests but this cannot be ruled out. The date has been organised as a day of mourning for those who have died since the restoration of the independence movement in 2015.

Significant Dates and Events

06 September to 18 October – Argentina – 2018 Summer Youth Olympics in Buenos Aires
08 September – France – Pro-environmental rallies in Paris and Lyon
08 September – Germany – Anti-surveillance law protest in Hannover
08 September – Spain – LGBT+ Pride parade in Benidorm
08 September – Macedonia (FYROM) – Independence Day
08 September – Bangladesh – Opposition BNP to stage nationwide protests
09 September – India – Akali Dal group to rally in Abohar
09 September – Russia – Nationwide rallies against pension reform
09 September – Dominican Republic – Anti-abortion rally in Santo Domingo
09 September – St Lucia – Anti-government march planned in Castries
09 September – North Korea – National Day
09 September – Tajikistan – Independence Day
09 September – Indonesia – Bali Marathon
10 September – Belize – George’s Caye Day
10 September – Gibraltar – Gibraltar National Day
10 September – Romania – Anti-Corruption Rally in Bucharest
10 September – Costa Rica – ANEP trade union calls for nationwide general strike
10 September – India – Opposition group calls for nationwide strike
10 to 11 September – Italy – Airport staff to conduct nationwide strike
10 to 13 September – Russia – Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok
11 September – United States – Anniversary of 2011 terror attack on the World Trade Centre, New York
11 to 13 September – Vietnam – World Economic Forum on ASEAN in Hanoi
11 to 23 September – United States – World Equestrian Games in Mill Spring, North Carolina
13 September – Austria – Pro-refugee rally to be held in Vienna
14 to 16 September – Formula One race in Singapore – road closures expected
14 to 18 September – Italy – Bologna Airport to close for maintenance
15 September – Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica – Independence Day
16 September – Mexico – Independence Day
16 September – Papua New Guinea – Independence Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36. The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 36 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

One Day Ahead Challenge: Supporting the Tour of Britain

Solace Global will provide tracking support to Phil Jones, the managing director of Brother UK, who will ride the entire 2018 OVO Energy Tour of Britain route one day ahead of the race with cancer survivor and cycling world record holder James Golding. With Solace Global’s tracking app, downloadable from the App Store (Solace Secure), the support team and fans alike can keep track of where Phil and James are on each route of the challenge.

The Challenge

To raise £50,000 for the Dave Rayner Fund, a voluntary organisation supporting young British riders in their dream of turning professional. Some of Britain’s most successful cyclists, including Grand Tour stage winners Adam Yates (Mitchelton-SCOTT) and David Millar enjoyed the support of the fund at a critical stage in their careers.

This year Solace Global has supported Vitus Pro Cycling, a professional UK-based cycle team. The team Director Sportive Cherie Pridham, the only female team owner and manager in the British peloton, will support Phil Jones MBE’s Tour of Britain One Day Ahead fundraising ride as sporting director.

Pridham, who rode 10 Grand Tours in an era of epic races for the women’s sport, and whose managerial expertise has yielded victories in some of the most prestigious races on the domestic calendar, including the Lincoln Grand Prix, will be a vital presence in the convoy of support vehicles for Jones’ 1,140-kilometre ride.

Solace Global

Solace Global protect thousands of people and assets all over the world, with 24/7 intelligence, tracking, assistance, in-country support and response services. In recent years, as global threats have become less predictable, even employees being sent to traditionally ‘safe’ destinations need security preparation, pushing risk management, resilience and duty of care into the limelight for their client base, which includes Corporates, NGO’s, HNWs, Scholastics, Media Groups and Insurers.

Solace Global build bespoke travel risk management solutions to support Duty of Care delivery, a comprehensive approach that extends even to tactical, on-the-ground support when environments become unworkable, and which empower businesses to operate in complex environments. They protect people, assets and reputation, and enable business continuity.

Emily Roberts, Managing Director of Solace Global Risk, said:

“We are delighted to support Phil (Jones) and James (Golding) on their ride for such a worthwhile cause. We got involved with Vitus Pro Cycling as road cycling’s demographic is in perfect alignment with the demographic of people we want to speak to in our business. This road has led us to supporting a great cause and enables us to raise the profile of The Dave Rayner Fund as well as our own business in support of someone who has committed an incredible amount of time and energy to the sport. Good luck!”

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35

Headlines From This Week

Widespread Far-Right Protests, Germany – Germany experienced widespread neo-Nazi protests between 29 and 31 August, focussed predominantly on regional capitals. The majority of these rallies were matched by anti-fascist or left-wing counter-protests, and a heavy police presence. Despite police efforts, violence was reported at a number of sites. Travellers are advised to avoid any large crowds or political events due to the risk of violence.
Mnangagwa inauguration in Zimbabwe – President Mnangagwa, the recently elected successor to Zimbabwe’s long-term President, Robert Mugabe, was inaugurated in Harare on 26 August. The event was peaceful, with the opposition subdued after the defeat of their legal challenge against Mnangagwa’s election.

Ethnic violence in Ethiopia’s Oromia – Estimates suggest that up to 13 Somalis may have been killed in two ethnically motivated attacks in Ethiopia’s Oromia region. The Ethiopian government strictly controls the country’s media, so reporting has been limited. It appears that members of a semi-official Ormoro militia were responsible for the killings. There is no indication that any specific event triggered the killing, suggesting this violence remains part of the wider trend of ethnic violence in the country.

West Bengal Unrest – India’s West Bengal has been shaken by widespread and violent civil unrest as the Supreme Court invalidated a series of local election results. At least 10 people have been killed in the clashes, primarily as a result of violence between competing political groups; however, one child was shot and killed in an apparent assassination attempt against his mother, a local councillor.

Dam Breached in Bago – A major dam in the Bago area of Myanmar failed on 29 August, following an extremely high level of rainfall. The resultant flooding has led to at least 12,600 people being evacuated into emergency camps, with up to 14,000 homes impacted to some degree. Major damage to roads and bridges downstream of the dam has also been reported. Travel in the region is likely to be impeded for a protracted period.

Brazilian troops deployed to Venezuelan border – The Brazilian government deployed troops to the Venezuelan border in order to support local law enforcement faced by a flood of refugees from the beleaguered nation. The flood of migrants has drastically changed the demographics of Brazil’s border areas, leading to a rise in civil unrest as the local population rally against the significant burden on their public services. There has been no indication that Brazil is seeking to close the border.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Italian Rail Strike – Staff for Italy’s Italo NTV highspeed rail network are due to conduct strike action on 07 September. Italian law requires a basic level of service to be maintained through all strikes, however widespread disruption is expected across the network. Italo NTV operates on a limited network which connects major cities. Long distance, rather than local travel will face the most extensive disruption.

World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan – The World Nomad Games is due to be held in the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan between 02 and 08 September. The games attract crowds significantly greater than the region’s normal population and therefore are likely to place a significant additional burden on travel infrastructure. Delays to travel and routine business operations are therefore likely. The games are also likely to attract a heightened security presence.

Super Typhoon Jebi –Typhoon Jebi, is on course to strike Japan over 04 and 05 September. Whilst presently rated as a typhoon, forecasters asses that it will likely become a super typhoon, with wind speeds over 175mph, by the time it makes landfall. The impact is likely to be significant; Japan has already been struck by several storms this season, existing damage to infrastructure and residential areas are likely to make Jebi’s impact all the more damaging.

Opposition Rallies in Madagascar – Madagascan opposition group, the Initiative for the Emergence of Madagascar (IEM), has planned to hold a rally in Antananarivo’s Mahamasina Sports Palace. Andry Rajoelina is intended to be the main speaker and is likely to use the rally to boost support for his presidential bid. Madagascar has experienced significant civil and political disturbances since a coup in 2009. It, therefore, remains possible that any major political rally may develop into violence, or have wider political ramifications.

Russian Pension Reform Protests – Vladimir Putin, Russia’s longtime President, announced his support for sweeping pension reforms at the end of August. The reforms include raising the male pension age to 65, and 60 for females; as a result, a significant proportion of the population will not live long enough to collect them. In response, protests have been planned across Russia’s major cities, starting from 02 September, and are highly likely to attract support from across the full political spectrum, including those typically supportive of the President. Major opposition protests are often heavy-handedly suppressed, however, the broad base of support for these rallies may limit the government’s options. Travellers to major Russian cities are strongly advised to maintain a high level of situational awareness and seek to avoid the vicinity of any rallies or protests.

Significant Dates and Events

01-03 September – Madagascar – Local transport strikes in Antananarivo
01 September – Bangladesh – BNP political rally to be held in Dhaka
01 September – Slovakia – Constitution Day
01 SSeptember– Uzbekistan – Independence day
01 September – Croatia – Major motorbike rally in Pula
01 September – Mauritania – First round of legislative elections
01 September – Mali – Opposition march in Bamako
01 September – India – State-wide protests planned in Punjab
02 September – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally
02-03 September – Hindu regions – Krishna Janmashtami
02-04 September – Tunisia – Maritime personnel to strike nationwide
03 September – Bermuda – Labour day rally in Hamilton
03 September- Canada & USA – Labour day
03 September – Vietnam – National day
05 September – Cocos Islands – Sporting event to cause disruptions on West Island
06 September – Tunisia – Rail workers to conduct nationwide strikes
06 September – Bulgaria – Unification day
06 September – Swaziland – Somhlolo day
07 Sptember – Brazil – Independence day
07 September – Fiji – Constitution day
07 September – Mozambique – Victory day
08 September – France – Pro-environmental rallies in Paris and Lyon
08-12 September – Spain – Airport Security personnel to strike
09 September – India – Akali Dal group to rally in Abohar
09 September – Russia – Nationwide rallies against pension reform
09 September – Dominican Republic – Anti-abortion rally in Santo Domingo
09 September – St Lucia – Anti-government march planned in Castries
10-11 September – Italy – Airport staff to conduct nationwide strike
13 September – Austria – Pro-refugee rally to be held in Vienna

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 35 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 34 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

24 August 18: Indian Government Established Anti Piracy Group. The Indian government announced the formation of an inter-agency working group to develop contingency plans in case of the hijack of Indian-crewed vessels. The group also re-issued additional anti-piracy guidance in line with international best practice. 22 August 18: Pakistani Navy Withdrew from CTF 150 and 151. The Pakistani navy withdrew its commitment to provide vessels to Combined Task Force 150 an 151, responsible for policing the Indian Ocean High Risk Area. The vessels are to be reassigned to patrol and secure an area up to 600nm from the Pakistani coast. This forms part of an effort to realign naval priorities with efforts to develop trade and security for Gwadar port.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

26 August 18: Diciotti Migrants Permitted to Disembark in Catania, Italy. The Italian coastguard vessel Diciotti was permitted to disembark the 177 migrants it had rescued from the Mediterranean. The vessel had been obstructed by the Italian Government, despite having conducted the rescues in an official capacity. Despite the resolution of this incident, further stand-offs between rescue vessels and the Italian government are likely.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

24 August 18: UPDATE – Missing Vessel Safe in Lome, Togo. A merchant vessel, the Pantelena, has berthed in Lome, Togo, having been missing for ten days. All crew were reported safe, however details of the incident remain unclear. Public interviews with the crew’s home-nation media outlets suggested that they were held for up to 9 days by pirates.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

27 August 18: US – ASEAN Naval Drills, Singapore. Multi-lateral naval and marine drills involving personnel and assets from the USA and ASEAN nations began in Singapore. Heightened maritime traffic should be expected in the area, and vessels should maintain a enhanced watch. 27 August 18: Attempted Boarding, Muara Berau, Indonesia. Two robbers attempted to board a bulk carrier at 00°15’S 117°41’E. The crew mustered, forcing them to flee empty handed. 27 August 18: Attempted Boarding, Insular Oil, Indonesia. Four robbers attempted to board a tanker berthed at 03°06’S 125°39’E. They detected the robbers, mustered, and forced them to flee. 16 August 18: LATE REPORT Theft at Anchor, Chittagong, Bangladesh. Four robbers boarded a containership at 22°03’N 091°44’E. They escaped with a 70m mooring rope. The theft was noted during routine rounds.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 34 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 34 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 34

Headlines From This Week

President Trump in Trouble – President Trump experienced two significant blows to his leadership this week thanks to two court cases. Trump’s former-lawyer/fixer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to bank fraud, tax fraud and campaign finance violations. He admitted to attempting to circumvent campaign finance laws, by hiding “hush money” payments and directly implicated Trump. Commentators have suggested that he may be seeking a plea agreement with the special prosecutor in the probe into Russian involvement in the 2016 elections. The President’s former-campaign chair Paul Manafort was found guilty of eight counts of financial crimes including tax fraud. Five Trump associates have now been found or pled guilty to crimes.

Venezuela Introduces New Currency – On 20 August, President Maduro’s government introduced a new currency which revalued and renamed the old bolivar currency, by effectively removing five zeroes. Inflation in Venezuela could reach one million per cent this year and the new currency is meant to control this by pegging its rate to a new cryptocurrency which is linked to the Venezuelan oil reserves. Economists are not confident that the new currency (alongside a host of other measures) will help to control inflation as it fails to address the root causes of price increases.

Political Drama in Australia – Scott Morrison is the new Australian Prime Minister after Malcolm Turnbull was ousted by party rivals in a leadership contest. This marks a shift to the right for the Australian government; Morrison is in the conservative wing of the ruling Liberal party, while Turnbull is closer to the political centre. Turnbull is the fourth Australian Prime Minister to be ousted by his own party. With the former-Prime Minister vowing to step down from Parliament after being ousted, the government’s one-seat majority is in serious jeopardy and there is an increased potential for an early election.

Crisis in Uganda – Uganda Member of Parliament and pop star Bobi Wine has been charged with treason by a civilian court shortly after being released by a military court on 23 August. His arrest, and those of other activists, has led to violent protests across the country, notably on 19 and 20 August in Mityana and Kampala. Moreover, police have sealed off the homes of a number of opposition politicians, and high-profile opposition figure Kizza Besigye was also arrested in the capital. Further unrest should be expected.

Constitutional Court Rules in Zimbabwe – Security levels in Zimbabwe’s capital were heightened as the Constitutional Court gave its ruling on a bid by opposition politicians to have 30 July presidential election results thrown out. In the end, the court sided with the President Mnangagwa in its ruling on 24 August. There is a high potential for unrest, potentially violent, over the next week.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Papal Visit to Ireland – Pope Francis will make a two-day visit to Ireland, arriving in Dublin at 1030 on 25 August. A series of events are planned for his visit including meetings with the Prime Minister and President, an event at St Mary’s Pro-Cathedral (1530hrs on 25 August), and an address at Croke Park (1930hrs on 25 August). The Pope will then spend the morning of 27 August in Knock, before attending a 1500hrs mass at Phoenix Park, Dublin. Security is expected to be tight with a series of road closures already in place. Activists have also announced plans to protest the visit, highlighting historical clerical abuse in Ireland.

Neo-Nazi Rally in Sweden – The neo-Nazi Nordic Resistance Movement (NMR) have been granted permission to march in Stockholm on 25 August. The march is set to begin in Kungsholmstorg with the predetermined route heading through Kungsholmen residential island. NMR permit allows between 30 and 30,000 protesters. A counter-protest will also take place, with an event starting at Norra Bantorget in the city centre. Although it is unclear how many attendees are expected at either event, Stockholm police have called in reinforcements from around the country; security is expected to be tight.

Malaysia Independence Day Celebrations – Malaysia celebrates its Independence Day on 31 August. Each year celebrations include an aerobatic performance by the country’s air force, usually in Kuala Lumpur, some 60km from the Kuala Lumpur International Airport. However, this year displays are set to occur in Putrajaya which is closer to the airport. Due to this, airspace around the airport will be closed from 0930hrs to 1030hrs from 27 to 31 August to allow the display to take place and for preparation. This is scheduled to impact a total of 498 flights. Delays and cancellations are expected and travellers should confirm their itineraries.

Legislative Elections in Mauritania – Legislative elections in the west African country of Mauritania are set to take place on 01 September in difficult circumstances. The opposition, despite boycotting previous votes, will take part in the 2018 elections. Tensions have mounted over a new electoral commission set up in April without members of the opposition. Unrest is expected and violence is likely.

US Open Tennis – The final tennis grand slam of the year, the US Open, is set to take place between 27 August and 09 September 2018. A series of titles will be up for grabs at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows–Corona Park, Queens, New York City. Security is expected to be tight. Attendees are advised to arrive early, prepare to have their person and bags searched, and should adhere to the code of conduct for the event. For more information, see the US Open website – https://www.usopen.org/en_US/visit/prohibited_items.html.

Significant Dates and Events

August – Haiti – Anti-government protests planned throughout August
18 August to 02 September – Indonesia – 18^th Asian Games in Jakarta and Palembang
23 to 25 August – United Kingdom – Liverpool John Lennon Airport workers to strike
24 to 26 August – Belgium – Formula One weekend in Spa
25 August – South Korea – Pro-choice rally to be held in Seoul
25 August – Spain – Police officers to rally in Santiago de Compostela
25 August – United Kingdom – Southampton and Cardiff LGBT+ Pride parades
25 August – Paraguay – Constitution Day
25 August – Uruguay – Independence Day
25 August – Mali – Opposition rally planned in Bamako
25 to 27 August, and 01 to 02 September – United Kingdom – London Euston train station to close for engineering work
25 to 27 August – United Kingdom – Notting Hill Carnival
26 and 27 August – Moldova – Opposition Protests in Chisinau
26 August – Romania – Anti-government protests in Bucharest
27 August – Moldova – Independence Day
27 August – Guatemala – Taxi drivers in Guatemala City to stage protests
27 August – Philippines – National Heroes’ Day
28 August – Chile – Striking teachers to protest in Santiago
28 August – Costa Rica – Fishermen plan nationwide protests
28 August – Georgia/Macedonia – St Mary’s Day
28 August – Syria – Anti-Turkey march planned in Tell Abyad
29 August – Slovakia – National Uprising Day
29 August – Sri Lanka – Railway workers to strike
30 August – Kazakhstan – Constitution Day
30 August – Timor-Leste – Popular Constitution Day
30 August – Turkey – Victory Day
31 August – Kyrgyzstan – Independence Day
31 August – Trinidad and Tobago – Independence Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 34 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 34 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 33 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

August 18: Yemeni Government Issued Warning to Fishermen. The Yemeni government issued a warning to fishermen operating in their waters, advising them to avoid approaching coalition warships. The warning follows Houthi threats to conduct further attacks against shipping, making it likely that warships would resort to force more rapidly when confronted by suspicious small craft. 15-22 August 18: Offensive Operations Continued around Al Hudaydah. The Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition continued to escalate offensive operations against Al Hudaydah, including a series of missile strikes which resulted in civilian casualties. Such attacks have previously resulted in the Houthi retaliating against Saudi merchant shipping and warships.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

15 August 18: Three Killed as Smugglers Sought to Evade Coastguard off Sfax, Tunisia. A migrant smuggler, piloting a small boat with 19 illegal migrants, attempted to repel the Tunisian Coastguard using petrol bombs. He mishandled the devices resulting in the deaths of himself and at least two other migrants before the coastguard succeeded in rescuing the remaining passengers. 15 August 18: Italian Coastguard Vessel denied access to Italian Ports. An Italian coastguard vessel carrying 177 rescued migrants was denied access to Italian ports. The vessel was eventually granted access on 20 August, however the migrants were not permitted to disembark. Matteo Salvini, the Interior minister has indicated that the migrants must be resettled in other EU countries or returned to their country of origin, likely Libya.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

21 August 18: UPDATE Vessel and 17 Crew Confirmed Missing off Gabon. A 7000 tonne, dual-purpose tanker was confirmed missing off Gabon, with at least 17 crew aboard. The missing vessel, Panelena, vanished from AIS on 14 August, and a potential distress signal was detected by other shipping in the area. The nature of the vessel’s disappearance is broadly inline with that expected following a pirate attack. 21 August 18: Theft From Vessel in Onne Anchorage, Nigeria. A merchant vessel at 04°40”N, 007°09”E was boarded by four armed men who stole a number of oil cans before escaping. No effort was made to enter the ship.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

20 August 18: Impounded Vessels Sunk in Indonesia. 125 vessels impounded for participating in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing were sunk by Indonesian authorities at 11 locations around the country. The vast majority of these vessels were foreign flagged, and the sinkings were only announced afterwards in an effort to minimise political repercussions. Further efforts to impose effective control of Indonesian waters are highly likely.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 33 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 33 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 33

Headlines From This Week

Ghazni Siege – A five-day siege of Ghazni, Afghanistan eased on 15 August as Afghan officials declared that they had regained control of the strategically important city. The Taliban siege left 165 Afghan police officers and soldiers and at least 40 civilians dead. The Ghazni assault has demonstrated Taliban tenacity and undermines talks that the government and its NATO allies are winning the war. US Secretary of Defence has stated that the Taliban had six targets in and around the Ghazni but failed to achieve any of them, without stating what these targets were.

Further Cracks in NATO Alliance – The Turkey-United States alliance has continued to show fractures. Washington and Ankara have traded tit-for-tat sanctions and tariffs, ostensibly regarding an American pastor detained in Turkey. The two countries have NATO’s largest militaries, but Turkey has recently shifted towards Russia, with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, offering support to Ankara. Turkey’s currency, the Lira, has lost about a third of its value over the past week, plunging to record lows against the dollar.

Genoa Bridge Collapse – At least 38 people have been killed, 15 have been injured, and another 20 could be missing after the Morandi Bridge in Genoa, Italy collapsed. The new populist government made up of the Five-Star Movement and the League have instituted a year-long state of emergency in the region. The government has shifted blame onto elites, notably the European Union and Atlantia, a major infrastructure group. This incident may have widespread implications for governance and business in Italy, as well as relations between the EU and Italy’s Eurosceptic government.

Kerala Flooding – The death toll in flooding in southern India’s Kerala state has reached at least 164 with 223,000 people left homeless. Flooding in Kerala has been described as the worst floods to have hit the state in a century; Kerala has experienced particularly severe rains since 08 August. For the first time in its history, the state has opened 35 of its 39 dams and red alerts have been issued in all 14 districts of the state. Apart from fatalities, flooding has caused widespread travel disruption, with Cochin International Airport expected to be closed until 26 August.

Potential Terror Incident in London – A British citizen of Sudanese origin was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder and terror offences after crashing a car outside the Houses of Parliament just before 07:40 local time on 14 August. Three people were injured in the apparently deliberate attack. This attack is reminiscent of a similar lone-wolf, car-ramming attack in March 2017 when a Jihadist terrorist killed five people on Westminster Bridge and outside the Palace of Westminster.

What To Look Out For Next Week

18^th Asian Games – The 18^th incarnation of the Asian Games is set to begin on 18 August and run until 02 September. With 45 nations competing in 465 events in 40 different sports, it has been dubbed the largest multisport event after the Olympics. Jakarta and Palembang in Indonesia play host to the 2018 event. Travel to Indonesia can be challenging and should be planned carefully; significant terror attacks have occurred in Jakarta in the past few years while suicide bombings targeted churches in Surabaya in May 2018. Please see our recent Event Advisory on the Asian Games for more information.

The Hajj Pilgrimage – The 2018 Hajj Pilgrimage is set to take place between 19 and 24 August. The event is a major Islamic festival, where millions of Muslims travel in pilgrimage to the city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia. In the past, overcrowding and infrastructural disasters have led to hundreds of deaths at the site in Mecca. The Hajj corresponds with Eid ul-Adha, one of two main Eid events in the Islamic calendar, which runs between 21 and 25 August. Significant disruption can be expected across the Islamic world during these dates as many Muslim-majority countries experience significant public holidays.

Sri Lankan Railway Workers Threaten Strike – Sri Lanka’s Railway Technical Services Trade Union Committee and the Locomotive Engine Operators’ Union have threatened to go on an indefinite strike from 21 August. Workers are demanding wage increases and better working conditions. Similar strikes in the past have led to heavy disruption to railway services, with thousands of travellers affected. It is unclear if union workers also plan to protest in line with this strike.

Imran Khan to Be Inaugurated as Prime Minister – Imran Khan, the former cricket player, will be sworn in as Pakistan’s new Prime Minister on 18 August. The event is scheduled to occur at the President House in Islamabad. Heightened security measures and traffic disruption should be expected in the city due to planned road closures and security checkpoints along the city’s main thoroughfares. The validity and transparency of the 25 July election continues to be called into question. Spontaneous protests by opposition groups should be avoided due to the potential for violence or targeting by terror groups.

Notting Hill Carnival – Preparations will be in full swing next week for the annual Notting Hill Carnival in London, United Kingdom. The event is scheduled to take place between 25 and 27 August and is commonly associated with a celebration of London’s Caribbean community. It is known as the largest free festival in Europe and brings with it significant concerns over crime, security, and travel disruption.

Significant Dates And Events

August – Haiti – Anti-government protests planned throughout August
18 August – Denmark – Copenhagen Pride parade
18 August – Panama – Drinking water supplies to Panama City to be cut
18 August – United States – Right-wing rally planned in Seattle
18 August – South Korea – Rally against sexual assault to be held in Seoul
18 August – South Korea – Trade Union to rally in Seoul
18 August – Germany – Far-right march in Cologne
18 August – Finland – Political protests to take place in Turku
18 August – Nicaragua – Opposition march planned in Managua
18 to 19 and 25 to 26 August – Spain – Finnair cabin crew based out of Barcelona-El Prat Airport to strike
18 to 19, 25 to 27 August, and 01 to 02 September – United Kingdom – London Euston train station to close for engineering work
19 August – Afghanistan – Independence Day
19 August – Costa Rica – Farmers set to protest in San Jose
19 to 21 August – Tunisia – Maritime Workers to strike
20 August – Argentina – St Martin’s Day
20 August – Estonia – Independence Restoration Day
20 August – Hungary – State Foundation Day
20 August – Morocco – King’s and People’s Revolution Day
20 to 25 August – Egypt/Gaza – Rafah border cross to close
21 August – Chile – Nurses to strike nationwide
21 August – Jordan/West Bank – King Hussein/Allenby Bridge border crossing to close for Eid ul-Adha
21 August – Morocco – King Mohammed’s Birthday/Youth Day
21 August – Philippines – Ninoy Aquino Day
23 to 25 August – United Kingdom – Liverpool John Lennon Airport workers to strike
24 August – Liberia – National Flag Day
24 August – Ukraine – Independence Day
24 to 26 August – Belgium – Formula One weekend in Spa
25 August – South Korea – Pro-choice rally to be held in Seoul
25 August – Spain – Police officers to rally in Santiago de Compostela
25 August – United Kingdom – Southampton LGBT Pride parade
26 August – Moldova – Opposition Protests in Chisinau
27 August to 09 September – United States – US Open Tennis Competition

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 33 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 33 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 32 – Maritime Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

12 August 18 Mogadishu Port to Operate 24 Hours a Day. In an effort to compete with other ports in the region, authorities in Somalia announced that Mogadishu Port would now be open around the clock for operations. The move is seen as a response to warming Ethiopia-Eritrea ties which may give Ethiopia greater access to Eritrea’s Red Sea ports. 04 August 18: Saudi Arabia to Resume Oil Shipments through Bab el-Mandeb. In a statement, the Saudi state-owned oil company, Aramco, reported that it would resume oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb strait after announcing the suspension of such operations on 25 July. The initial suspension came on the back of Yemeni rebel attacks on two of its vessels.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

14 August 18: Vessel Loses Communication off Libreville Port. A company CSO announced that they had lost all communication with an MV in the vicinity of Libreville Anchorage. 06 August 18: Vessel at Apapa Port Boarded. The duty OS on a berthed container ship at Apapa Port, Lagos, was assaulted when he intervened on spotting that a robber had boarded the vessel.

Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 August 18: Tug Boarded off Tambisan Island. Several individuals in a speedboat boarded a tug towing a barge underway off Tambisan Island, Sabah. The crew locked all access to the tug and contacted local authorities which dispatched a security vessel. Due to tug hardening, access to accommodation was impossible. Attackers escaped when noticing the approaching security vessel. 10 August 18: Vessel Boarded off the Coast of Sagar Light, India. 10 to 12 robbers came alongside an anchored vessel off the coast of Sagar Light. Two robbers boarded the vessel and escaped after crew noticed their presence. 05 August 18: Attempted Kidnapping off the Coast of Sabah. Armed individuals in a boat approached a group of fishermen off the coast of Felda Sahabat, Sabah. On noticing this, a Malaysian Marine police vessel chased the armed individuals leading to a firefight in which four of the armed individuals were killed. Malaysian authorities stated that fishermen were a target for kidnapping by the armed group. 02 August 18: Vessel Boarded off Kutubdia Anchorage, Bangladesh. Robbers boarded an anchored tanker using a rope with a hook. They managed to steal stores and property before escaping. 02 August 18: Boarding at Tanjung Priok Anchorage, Jakarta. Unnoticed, Robbers boarded a vessel at Tanjung Priok Anchorage, stealing ship engine parts before escaping.

Rest of the World – Maritime Security Incidents

12 August 18: Caspian Sea Agreement. The leaders of Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan signed a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea during a summit in Kazakhstan. The convention means a 22-km stretch of water from each country’s shore will be considered sovereign territorial waters. 12 August 18: Vessel Boarded at Santos Anchorage. An anchored vessel was boarded by around four robbers. Crew noticed their presence and raised the alarm. Robbers escaped without stealing anything. 09 August 18: Strikes Disrupt Operations at Lebanon Ports. Striking transport workers disrupted operations at ports across Lebanon in protests of unfair competition and high fuel prices. This is the third recent protest by transportation unions which look set to continue. 05 August 18: Theft from Vessel at Macapa Anchorage, Brazil. Robbers boarded an anchored bulk carrier at Macapa Anchorage, escaping unnoticed with ship stores.

Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 32 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 32 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 32

Headlines From This Week

Venezuela Drone Attack – An alleged assassination attempt was launched against Venezuela’s President Maduro on 04 August, through the use of explosive-laden drones whilst he reviewed a military parade. The president remained unhurt during the attack, although seven troops suffered injuries. Emergency personnel who responded to the incident initially indicated that it may have been caused by a domestic gas explosion, rather than an attack. Maduro has since announced a sweeping crackdown on opposition due to the alleged attack, placing blame on “traitors” supported by the USA and Colombia.
Security Forces Besieged the Nigerian National Assembly – Members of the Nigerian State Security Service laid siege to the Nigerian legislature on 07 August. Initially, all personnel were denied access, however, elected members were eventually allowed to enter the building whilst support staff, journalists, and other personnel continued to be obstructed. Contradictory narratives concerning the siege have emerged, however, the common theme appears to be that the security services were deployed by the executive branch seeking to exert pressure upon a non-compliant national assembly. Further unrest remains a realistic possibility, and protests in Nigeria frequently result in violence.
Gaza Clashes and Rumours of a Truce – Israeli forces exchanged fire with Hamas militants in the Gaza strip on 08 and 09 August in the most violent period since the end of the 2014 war. The exchange of rockets and airstrikes ended at 0001hr 10 August, in what appears to be a truce brokered through Egypt. Additional reporting suggests that some measures to ease the travel and trade restrictions around Gaza may also be implemented as part of this ceasefire.

Lombok Earthquakes – The Indonesian island of Lombok was hit by at least seven significant earthquakes over the past week, with a 6.9 magnitude quake on 05 August being followed by a series of aftershocks, the most recent and powerful of which measured at a magnitude between 5.9 and 6.2. This series of tremors has let to extensive damage across the island and a confirmed death toll of at least 350 people. This is expected to rise significantly as destroyed buildings are cleared. Travellers in the vicinity of Lombok should expect disruption to all services whilst rescue, recovery, and repair efforts are ongoing.
Autonomy for Mindanao – The Philippine’s second largest island has been granted significantly increased autonomy as part of a wide-ranging reform with the potential to significantly reduce violence in the region. In exchange for this concession from the government, a number of militant groups have declared their intent to surrender their weapons. There remains a possibility that splinter cells of these groups may launch further attacks in the coming months in an effort to regain relevance in this new status quo.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Italian Air Traffic Control Strike – Management personnel at the Italian Air Traffic Control (ATC) organisation intend to strike on 15 This is likely to result in delays and diversions to flights into and out of Italy. Considering that this strike has been timed to coincide with the peak of the tourist season, significant knock-on effects can be expected at international airports across Europe. Travellers are advised to remain in contact with their travel provider to assess the impact of the strike on their itineraries.
Malian Presidential Runoff – The second round of the Malian presidential election is scheduled to be held on 12 August. Ibrahim Keita and Soumaila Cisse, for Rally for Mali and Union for the Republic and Democracy respectively, are to contest the second round. Keita gained over 41 per cent of the first round, to Cisse’s 17 per cent, making a Keita victory the most likely outcome. The first round was marred by significant violence across the country, including numerous instances of unrest, and an ambush conducted against a convoy containing electoral material in Segou, which resulted in 12 dead. Further violence is highly likely.

Unite the Right Rally in Washington DC – A rally by a coalition of right-wing groups is due to be held in the US capital on 12 August. It is anticipated to include white nationalists and avowed members of the Ku Klux Klan, in addition to a broader selection of mainstream conservative groups. Counter protests are highly likely. Previous “Unite the Right” rallies have been marked by significant violence, including a ramming attack in which one counter-protester was killed. Travellers in Washington DC are advised to avoid the route of the rally and maintain a heightened level of awareness. An overt security presence around the rally is likely.

Tropical Storm Yagi to Strike Okinawa – Tropical Storm Yagi is on course to strike Okinawa and the surrounding islands throughout the next week. Meteorologists assess that it is likely to develop into a full typhoon by the time it makes landfall. Travellers should expect widespread disruption to all travel in the region surrounding Okinawa, with high winds and flooding likely to cause damage to structures and other assets.
Pakistani Independence Day – Pakistan celebrates its Independence Day on 14 August. This date is also intended to mark the completion of the handover of power from the present caretaker government to the PTI party, headed by Imran Khan. Controversy surrounds the recent election, primarily centred in voter fraud and intimidation in support of the PTI. Combined with heightened political sensitivities typical on Independence Day, this may act as a trigger for significant civil unrest. Fatal riots and terror attacks have already marred the election season. All reasonable efforts should be made to avoid contact with rallies or political events.

Significant Dates And Events

11 August – Japan – Mountain Day
11 August – Tunisia – Rallies against social reforms in Tunis
11 August – Czech Republic – Prague Pride parade
11 August – Chad – Independence Day
11 August – Iceland – Reykjavik Pride parade
11 August – Venezuela – Opposition protests anticipated in Caracas
11 August – Australia – Pro-Palestinian rally to be held in Sydney
11 August – South Korea – Anti-refugee rally planned in Seoul
11 August – Mexico – Pride parade to be held in Toluca
12 August – Dominican Republic – Opposition protests planned in Santo Domingo
13 August – Central African Republic – Independence Day
13 August – Canada – Saudi state airline to terminate flights to Toronto
13 August – Zimbabwe – Heroes’ Day
13 August – Thailand – King’s birthday
13 August – Gabon – Dynamic Unitaire to hold an anti-austerity rally in Libreville
13 August – Argentina – Pro-choice rally in Buenos Aires
13-14 August – Grenada – Carnival
15 August – Paraguay – Anti-electoral fraud rally to be held in Asuncion
15 August – Nicaragua – Opposition groups to rally in Managua
14 August – Haiti – Nationwide anti-government protests planned
15 August – Brazil – Pro-Lula (the ex-President) rallies to be held in Brasilia
17 August – Armenia – Prime Minister Pashinyan to hold a rally in Yerevan
17 August – Haiti – Nationwide anti-government protests planned
18 August – Denmark – Copenhagen Pride parade
19 August – Afghanistan – Independence Day
19–24 August – Saudi Arabia – Hajj pilgrimage
21 August – Chile – Nationwide nurses strike
25 August – South Korea – Pro-choice rally to be held in Seoul
26 August – Moldova – Opposition Protests in Chisinau

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 32 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 32 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 31 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

01 August 18 Iranian Navy Exercises in Straits of Hormuz. The Iranian Navy and maritime elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps conducted a mass exercise aimed at demonstrating their capability to seal the Straits of Hormuz against international shipping. The likelihood of them conducting such an attack unprovoked remains low, however regional tensions remain high. 02 August 18: Mass Casualties in Al Hudaydah Airstrike. At least 60 civilians were killed by a coalition airstrike against Houthi-held areas of the port. There is a realistic possibility that the Houthi will seek to target Saudi or coalition vessels in response for the attack.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

August 18: Korean and Philippine Warships Deployed to the Libyan Coast. Both the Philippine and South Korean navies have directed warships to the Libyan coast following the kidnap of nationals from both counties from an infrastructure project in the south of the country. It is possible they will seek to conduct rescue operations. August 18: Korean and Philippine Warships Deployed to the Libyan Coast. Both the Philippine and South Korean navies have directed warships to the Libyan coast following the kidnap of nationals from both counties from an infrastructure project in the south of the country. It is possible they will seek to conduct rescue operations.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

01 August 18: NNRC Report Extent of Crude Theft in Nigeria. The Nigerian National Resource Charter issued a report highlighting that crude thefts from the Delta region exceeded the value of the state’s combined health and education budgets. Whilst the data used to support the conclusions is not completed up to date, the report demonstrates the industrial scale of criminal activity against extractive industries in the region.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

26 July 18: Attempted Boarding in Bantangas Anchorage. A lone individual aboard a small boat attempted to board a bulk carrier at 13°44’N 121°02’E using a hook and rope. Crew members raised the alarm and the attacker fled 02 August 18: Abu Sayyaf Insurgents Surrender in Sulu. Up to 11 members of the Abu Sayyaf group surrendered to security forces in the Sulu Sea area of the Philippines. The group previously relied on kidnapping of seafarers to fund its operations. 04 August 18: Additional US Security Funding Announced. US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, announced an additional $300 million of funding towards maritime security cooperation and humanitarian support between ASEAN states.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 31 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 31 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 31

Headlines From This Week

Zimbabwe Elections – Zimbabwe held its first election since the near-bloodless coup which deposed President Mugabe in November 2017. The governing party announced victory with a substantial majority, however this was immediately contested by opposition groups. Protesters took to the streets in Harare and were confronted by riot officers with teargas. The election of Mugabe’s replacement is unlikely to lead to significant divergence in national policies, the core of the new government contains numerous veterans of Mugabe’s administration.
Protests in Dhaka – The Bangladeshi capital was brought to a standstill on several days through the past week due to widespread student protests. The demonstrators actively sought to obstruct road traffic and check drivers’ licences, insurance, and vehicle roadworthiness. The protests were triggered by a fatal road traffic collision, where a bus ploughed through a group of students, killing two. Riot officers clashed with the students, with teargas and non-lethal ammunition used in their efforts to disperse crowds.
Protests in Katanga – A key opposition leader, Moise Katumbi, the former governor of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Katanga province, has announced his return to the country and contest the presidential election due in late 2018. He fled the country and was handed a three year sentence in 2016 in absentia for hiring armed militias, and a series of corruption offences during his time as governor. Extensive protests occurred in Katanga’s regional capital, Lubumbashi, between supporters and opponents of his return, fuelled by the prospect of his arbitrary arrest upon landing.
Tajikistan Ramming Attack – The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the killing of four cyclists in a vehicle and knife attack in Tajikistan’s Khatlon province. The group of seven cyclists was struck by a vehicle, before at least five men disembarked the vehicle and stabbed the fallen riders. Four of the five suspects were later shot and killed during an exchange with Tajik police. The attackers had produced a video swearing their allegiance to IS prior to the attack, and all were Tajik citizens not known to have fought with IS abroad.
California Wildfires – Wildfires continued to spread across significant areas of California, with the most significant occurring in Shasta County, and on the edge of the Yosemite National Park. Reported casualties have remained relatively low, with firefighters from multiple states battling to contain the fires whilst adjacent populated areas are evacuated. These evacuations and associated road closures have caused disruption to local travel, however the majority of the state remains broadly unaffected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Discrimination Rally in Washington DC – A selection of anti-fascist groups have planned multiple rallies in Washington DC between 10 and 12 August 2018. The groups wish to address a wide array of grievances with the US federal government, most notably what they see as the normalisation of white nationalism throughout the branches of government under President Trump’s administration. Travellers should expect widespread disruption. Previous anti-fascist protests have been met with right-wing counter protests, and resulted in significant violence.
Colombian Presidential Inauguration & Bogota Carnival – Colombia’s capital, Bogota, is likely to experience extensive disruption over the following week. The Bogota Carnival, celebrating the anniversary of the city’s foundation, is due to be held on 05 and 06 August, to be followed immediately by the inauguration of President Iván Duque Márquez. Both events are likely to cause widespread travel disruption, with road closures and a reduction in business opening hours likely.
Kazakh Opposition Protests – The banned Democratic Choice for Kazakhstan group has called for nationwide protests on 06 July to coincide with President Nazarbayev’s birthday. Political opposition in Kazakhstan is heavily suppressed, and it is highly likely that protests will be forcefully dispersed if they take place. Previous rallies by the group in June 2018 resulted in mass arrests. The most likely locations for rallies are at Astana’s Expo 2017 Centre, Almaty’s Astana Square, and in the city centres of Shymkent, Kyzylorda, Uralsk, and Temirtau.
Pro-Refugee Rallies in Germany – Rallies are due to be held in cities across Rhine-Westphalia in solidarity with refugees seeking to flee to Europe across the Mediterranean. The protests are highly likely to attract counter protesters from anti-migration and extreme-right wing groups who harbour an ideological opposition to sheltering refugees. Protests in Germany are generally well policed, however clashes between protesters and counter-demonstrators are likely.
US Secretary of State Visits Asia – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is to visit Singapore and Jakarta, Indonesia, between 03 and 05 August. Pompeo is anticipated to conduct a series of meetings with senior government officials, focusing on regional cooperation within the ASEAN framework. Extensive travel disruption is likely and authorities in both cities have stated that a heightened level of security will be in place for the duration of his visit.

Significant Dates And Events

03 to 04 August – United Kingdom – London Underground staff to strike
01 to 12 August – United Kingdom and Germany – European Sports Championship in Glasgow and Berlin
04 August – Costa Rica – LGBT rally planned in San Jose
04 August – Israel – Tel Aviv protest planned against nationality law
04 and 05 August – Burkina Faso – Revolution Day followed by Independence Day
04 to 12 August – France – Gay Games in Paris
05 August – Croatia – Homeland Thanksgiving Day
06 August – Caribbean – Nine countries celebrate Emancipation Day
06 August – Bolivia – Independence Day
06 August – Canada – August Civic or Provincial Holiday
06 August – El Salvador – Fiestas Patronales
06 August – United Arab Emirates – Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan’s Accession Day
06 August – Zambia – Farmers’ Day
07 August – Colombia – Anniversary of the Battle of Boyaca
07 August – Cote d’Ivoire – Independence Day
08 August – Iraq – Ceasefire Day
08 August – Tanzania – Farmers’ Day
09 August – Singapore – National Day
09 August – South Africa – National Women’s Day
09 to 12 August – United States – USPGA Golf Tournament at Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis, Missouri
10 August – Ecuador – National Independence Day
10 August – Various – Ryanair pilots to strike
10 August – Australia – Environmental activists to hold vigil in Melbourne
11 August – Japan – Mountain Day
11 August – Chad – Independence Day
13 August – Central African Republic – Independence Day
13 August – Zimbabwe – Heroes Day
13 August – Thailand – King’s birthday
13-14 August – Grenada – Carnival

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 31 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 31 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 30 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

22 July 18: UPDATE Attack Reported near Baraawe, Somalia. A merchant vessel conducting resupply operations to African Union forces was attacked by mortar fire on approach to Baraawe. The attackers were believed to be Al Shabaab insurgents. No significant harm to the vessel or crew was reported. 25 July 18: UPDATE Saudi Vessel Attacked near Al Hudaydah. Houthi rebels conducted attacks against two Saudi tankers transiting the Red Sea. The Saudi coalition reported that the attack was conducted with explosive-laden fast boats. Neither vessel suffered severe damage, and all crew were reported safe. The Saudi state oil producer indicated that they intend to suspend oil shipments through the Bab el Mandeb in order to minimise the threat to their vessels.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

28 July 18: Spanish Coastguard Rescue 1,000 Migrants in Two Days. A significant spike in attempted migrant crossings between Morocco and Spain resulted in maritime rescue services recovering upwards to 1,000 migrants between 26 and 28 July. Vessels transiting the area may experience disruption from ongoing rescue operations. There is no indication why this two day period attracted so many crossing attempts.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

24 July 18: IMB Report Shows Gulf of Guinea as Kidnap Hotspot. The International Maritime Bureau’s quarterly report confirmed that the Gulf of Guinea was the only area in which crew kidnap incidents were reported through 2018 to date. The report also assessed that significant numbers of kidnaps, beyond the 25 reported, have taken place. Crews are advised to maintain a high level of awareness throughout the region and make all efforts to report criminal activity.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

26 July 18: Attempted Boarding from Vessel near Bontang, Indonesia. Duty crew members spotted robbers seeking to climb the hawse pipe of a vessel at 00°04’S 117°35’E. The crew mustered and raised the alarm, forcing the robbers to flee empty handed

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 30 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 30 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.