MARITIME SNAPSHOT – WEEK 50

A Closer Look at Maritime Incidents This Week

The Gulf of Guinea’s shifting piracy trends

The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is currently seeing a shift in piracy trends, while maritime hijackings are down, the total incident numbers are up. The majority of the incidents in the GoG have been reported around Nigeria; however, there has also been a noticeable increase in boardings at the Takoradi anchorage in Ghana.

A vital statistic for the area is that 37 of the 39 crew kidnappings for ransom globally have occurred in the GoG region; in seven separate incidents. Of these, 29 of them occurred in four separate incidents off Nigeria – this includes the kidnapping of 12 crewmembers in September form a Swiss-flagged bulk carrier off Bonny Island, Nigeria. The crew members were later released (in October) after a ransom was most likely paid.

The region is currently seeing the highest concentration of pirate activity as in other areas of the world, incidents of piracy and armed robbery are comparatively rare. The coast of Somalia is now well police with the last attack occurring in October and resulting in the security team onboard successfully repelling the attackers. South-East Asia has seen a number of attacks on fisherman by Abu Sayyaf militants; however, at this time, militants have not attempted to attack larger vessels. While, finally, South America is seeing opportunistic theft from vessels at anchor.

Nevertheless, the risk of piracy remains high in certain areas. The Nigerian Navy actively responds and dispatches patrol boats when incidents have been reported promptly; highlighting the importance of crews reporting incidents in a timely manner.

As reported in the Maritime Monthly, the Nigerian economy has lost at least over US$2.5 Billion as a result of piracy. The country’s Senate has negotiated eight maritime bills in three years in am an attempt to tackle the issue. It is hoped that the country’s navy, and those of surrounding countries, can copy the success that foreign navies have had in the Indian Ocean (see below) when it comes to tackling the current threat.

BBC report on the success of how foreign navies have curbed piracy off Somalia’s coast

The BBC’s Anne Soy has written about how foreign navies have managed to successfully curb piracy off the Somali coast. In the article, Foy highlights the role the European Union Naval Force (EUNavfor) has played in tackling the risk of piracy in the area. However, the article fails to mention the critical role that the industry has played in providing armed security onboard vessels as well as the implementation of BMP measures. To read more: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46454055

Abu Sayyaf linked to two attacks while Malaysian counter-terror police make seven arrests

There have been numerous incidents involving the designated terrorist group Abu Sayyaf in the past week. On 5 December, the crew of an Indonesian tugboat successfully repelled four armed attackers near Pegasus Reef, Sabah, Malaysia. It was reported that the attack was successfully repelled by the tub crew using a flare gun to fire at the militants.

Separately, on the same day, an Indonesian fisherman who had been captured in September in the same area was freed. According to sources in the Philippines, the country’s military were involved in the release of the abducted fisherman.

Also on the 5 December, a vessel, believed to be a fishing vessel, was attacked by what is believed to be as many as 20 armed men. The attackers, also reportedly part of the Abu Sayyaf group, are understood to have abducted three fishermen.

Malaysian counter-terrorism police also reported that they arrested seven terror suspects, including a member of Abu Sayyaf. Those arrested had reportedly been involved in three kidnappings in the southern Philippines and Sabah, Malaysia. The operations were conducted last month and also reportedly resulted in the detention of two Islamic State (IS) linked extremists.

Finally, a soldier was killed on 7 December following a gun battle that lasted for 30 minutes. The firefight occurred at dusk in Barangay Bungkaong, Patikul, Sulu, between elements of the Philippines Army’s 21st Infantry Battalion and around 30 Abu Sayyaf militants. At least one other soldier was killed in the firefight.

The incidents demonstrate the threat presented by the group in the region and while at this stage the group has only targeted fishing vessels and small tugboats, the threat to larger international shipping remains. Extra vigilance should be carried out if transiting waters off Eastern Sabah and Sulu-Celebes Seas. The group are especially interested in businessmen or crew from foreign vessels passing through the area.

Global Security Forecast: Week 49

TOGO: Nationwide (Moderate) – Nationwide: Anticipate heightened security; disruption, following ban on opposition protest The Togolese government have banned all opposition protests and rallies in the build up to the 20 December legislative elections stating fears over public disorder. Demonstrations had been planned by opposition leaders in urban centres throughout the country from 8 December to 18 December calling for the deferral of the election process to allow for constitutional reforms. Fourteen opposition political parties, who make up the main opposition collation, denounced electoral irregularities and subsequently did not submit candidates for the upcoming elections. Togo has been engulfed in political crisis over the last year with regular demonstrations calling for the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, who has ruled the country since 2005 following the death of his father. The three main religious institutes in Togo have backed calls to postpone the December elections, questioning the transparency and accountability of the current ballot process. ADVICE: Opposition groups are likely to defy the government order and continue with planned protests in major urban centres leading to localised clashes with security forces. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. ARMENIA: Yerevan, Urban Centres (Low) – Snap parliamentary elections due to be held on 9 December, unrest possible Following acting Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, decision to resign and dissolve parliament, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has announced that snap elections will be held on 9 December. The decision comes a month after tens of thousands of people protested in the Armenia capital, Yerevan, against a bill that would make it increasingly difficult for the prime minister to call for new elections. Armenia experienced a peaceful revolution in May this year when hundreds of thousands of people protested the perceived corruption and cronyism within Armenia’s ruling class, forcing the Prime Minister, Serzh Sargsyan, to resign. ADVICE: While protests generally pass of peacefully, travellers should avoid all election-related gatherings as a precaution, Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Jordan: Amman (Moderate) – Heightened security; travel disruption expected as protests over new tax laws persist In the latest in a series of protests, hundreds of Jordanians took to the streets in the capital Amman on 6 December to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz. This is the third such protest in Amman following the governments introduction of International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed austerity measures that have ended bread subsidies and increased taxes. The measures are expected to disproportionately impact low to mid-income earners, reinforcing already existing inequality within the country. Yesterday’s protest occurred at 17.00 (local time) near Amman’s 4^th circle. Demonstrators attempted to march from the courtyard of Jordan Hospital to the 4^th circle roundabout. Security forces intervened to stop protesters marching on the roundabout and disrupting traffic at rush hour. Protests are likely to persist in the coming weeks and clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Avoid all protests as a precaution due to the risk of travel disruption. Violent clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Thailand: Countrywide (Low) – Cycling event to cause significant travel disruption, road closures in city centre on 9 December More than 85,000 people have signed up to take part in the Bike Un Ai Rak cycling event on 9 December taking place in the Thai capital, Bangkok. The event is due to begin at 15.00 (local time), with road closures expected from 12.00 to 19.00 on the day. Public transport, including buses, sky trains, subways, and expressways will be overcrowded as ticket prices have been waived for those taking part in the event. Residual travel disruption is expected throughout the city. Cyclists will begin their ride at the Dusit Palace before making their way south through the city to Lat Pho Park, south of the Chao Phraya River, they will then return on a similar route. Up to 25 major roads in central Bangkok with remain closed for the duration of the event and travellers are advised to avoid road travel in central Bangkok. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key event locations to minimise disruption. United Kingdom: London (Low) – Pro-Brexit rally on 9 December likely to cause travel disruption in central London, counter protests expected Thousands of people are expected to attend a pro-Brexit rally demanding there is no ‘betrayal’ by politicians when they vote on Teresa May’s current deal to leave the European Union (EU). The current proposal on the terms of the divorce between the EU and Great Britain has angered several pro-Brexit politicians who argue the deal is not reflective of what the country voted on during the referendum. Protesters will meet at the Dorchester hotel in Park Lane before marching on Whitehall, where the rally will be staged. Far-right politician Tommy Robinson, aka Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, and UKIP leader, Gerard Batten are expected to speak at the event. A counter-protest has been organised and will run concurrently to the pro-Brexit protest. While the Metropolitan police have made a statement ensuring that policing will be upscaled in the protest-affected areas, clashes between rival supporters cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between rival protesters in the past, if you are caught near a protest, leave the area immediately, return to a safe location and follow the direction of the local authorities

GLOBAL HEADLINES: 30 – 06 December 2018

IRAN: Chabahar (Moderate) – Car bomb kills four and injures at least 40 in south eastern port city on 6 November A vehicle-born improvised explosive device was detonated outside the police headquarters in the south eastern port city of Chabahar (Sistan e Baluchistan province), killing four police officer and injuring at least 40 people. The suicide bomber drove a vehicle laden with explosives at the headquarters but failed to reach the target before detonating the explosives. Local police officers stationed at a check point outside the building have been commended for stopping the vehicle from reaching its intended target. Ansar al-Fuqran, a Sunni Baloch militant group who want autonomy from Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack. Iran’s Sistan e Baluchistan province, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, is one of two majority Sunni provinces in Shia dominated Iran and is populated by ethnic Baloch’s who identify closely with the Baluchistan province in Pakistan. Sistan e Baluchistan suffers one of the highest rates of poverty in the country, remains severely underdeveloped and is largely cut off from the political scene in Tehran. Livelihoods are centred around cross border smuggling with Pakistan which Iranian security forces are increasingly trying to stop. While such attacks remain rare due to the capability of Iranian security forces in the region, there remains a persistent threat of terrorist and militant attacks in the region. ADVICE: Travel to Sistan e Baluchistan should be only be considered for business-critical purposes only due to the threat posed by kidnapping, criminality and terrorist attacks. Organisation’s should work with a local trusted partner to ensure they receive the correct documentation to travel to the region. Travellers in the province should minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. UKRAINE: Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts (Moderate) – Ukraine’s security forces carry out raids on Russia Orthodox churches; tensions remain elevated Ukraine’s security forces conducted a series of raids on 3 December targeting Orthodox Churches and the homes of Orthodox priests. Up to eight searches were conducted by security forces in Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts and appeared to target churches who had rejected the recent independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, pledging their allegiance to the Russian branch of the Orthodox church. The Ukrainian security forces stated that the searches were in response to recent allegations that certain churches were inciting hatred and violence throughout their congregations. Up to 20 priests have been summoned for questioning by police forces in recent days. The raids are likely to spark protests by members of the Russian Orthodox church in the coming days and further provoke the already tense political standoff between Russia and Ukraine. ADVICE: Travel to Ukraine remains possible however travellers should stay up to date with local news and regional developments. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any changes in the security environment or travel restrictions in the local area. Russian males age 16 to 60 remain unable to travel Ukraine at the present time and martial law is in effect till in the ten regions bordering Russia. Read our latest travel advisory on the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine following the Kerch Strait incident. AFGHANISTAN: Kabul (Severe) – Parliamentary election results found to be invalid, protest likely Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) announced on 6 December that all votes cast in Kabul during the October parliamentary elections are invalid citing 25 conduct reasons for the decision, including mismanagement and fraud. The findings will now be reviewed by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC). According to the Afghan constitution, if the findings are ratified by the IEC, the Election Commission will have seven days to arrange secondary polls. Only 14 of the 33 provinces have announced the official results following the ballot that took place on 20 October, casting doubts on the credibility of the election process. The announcement by the IECC is expected to be met with anger by Kabul residents and will likely lead to protests in the capital in the coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts. Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency.

SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
9 Dec	Armenia	Parliamentary Elections	LOW
9 Dec	Peru	Constitutional Referendum	MODERATE
9 Dec	Tanzania	Independence Day	LOW
10 Dec	Libya	Presidential and Parliamentary elections (Postponed)	HIGH
12 Dec	Kenya	Jamhuri Day (Independence Day)	LOW
16 Dec	Bahrain	National Day	LOW
16 Dec	Kazakhstan	Independence Day	LOW
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	MODERATE
17 Dec	Bhutan	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
18 Dec	Qatar	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	HIGH
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	MODERATE
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
30 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	HIGH
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast Week 49 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Global Security Forecast – Week 48

GLOBAL FORECAST: 30 – 06 December

UNITED STATES: MIDWEST STATES (LOW) – Anticipate travel disruption as severe weather warning issued from 30 November to 2 December. The US National Weather Service (NWS) have issued a winter weather warning for large parts of the Mid-West and Northern Plains with blizzard conditions expected from the evening of Friday 30 November until 2 December. Up to 11 inches of snow has been forecast in areas of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota and wind speeds are expected to reach speeds of up to 55 km (35 miles) per hour leading to severe disruption in affected areas. The recent weather warning follows significant disruption in Illinois and Missouri states on 26 and 27 November after blizzard-like conditions left 200,000 homes without power, grounded more than 1700 flights and led to treacherous driving conditions. ADVICE: Travellers currently in, or travelling to, the affected states should reconfirm the status of their flights with the relevant airline or airport, follow all directives issued by local authorities and check the status of routes before embarking on any road move. Early December is historically the busiest travel period in the US and travellers should anticipate a knock-on impact to flights if widespread cancellations are announced. ARGENTINA: BUENOS AIRES (LOW) – Expect travel disruption; heightened security during G20 summit from 30 Nov – 1 Dec World leaders will gather in the capital, Buenos Aires, on 30 November to take part in the two-day G20 summit. Heightened security measures have been implemented throughout the city and the main business district will remain closed for the duration of the summit. The event is being held at the Costa Salguero convention centre and widespread disruption and street closures are expected throughout the Palermo neighbourhood as well as localised anti-G20 protests. Jorge Newbery (AEP), El Palomar (EPA), San Fernando (FDO) and Moron (MXV) airports have been closed to commercial flights to allow for the arrival of foreign dignitaries. Ezeiza International Airport (EZE) will remain open but heightened security and associated disruptions are to be expected. ADVICE: Anticipate disruption throughout Buenos Aires from the 30 November including at Ezeiza International Airport (EZE). Where possible, avoid travel to Palermo neighbourhood and the main business district. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. GEORGIA: TBILISI (LOW) – Opposition parties to demonstrate on 2 December to denounce election results. A coalition of opposition political groups, including the former ruling party the United National Movement (UNM), have called for anti-government protests to be held in the capital city, Tbilisi, on 2 December amidst widespread accusations that the recent presidential election was rigged. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke via video link from Freedom Square on 29 November to denounce the election process that saw the independent candidate, funded by the Georgian Dream party, Salome Zurabishvili, win a second-round poll with around 60 percent of the vote. Allegations of vote buying, and a rigged polling process have been reported in local media sources and international election observers describe the campaigning process as an ‘uneven playing field’. Protesters are expected to march on Rustaveli Avenue in the morning and remain there throughout the day. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. LIBYA: COUNTRYWIDE (SEVERE) – Anticipate unrest following decision to postpone elections till spring 2019. An international summit on Libya, held in Italy on 12 November, concluded with the announcement that the Libyan parliamentary and presidential elections will be postponed till spring. The decision was made following the increase in violence in recent months between rival groups and the failure of the two parallel governing bodies to agree on the terms of the election process. At present the UN-backed Government of National Accord, made up of powerful Misrata and Tripoli-based militias, govern in the west of the country while the House of Representative, alongside the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar, govern in the east. The scheduled polls have been seen as a potential tool to reconcile the two governments in an effort to unite the country. The postponement of Parliamentary elections will result in localised protests in urban centres as Libyan nationals call for greater transparency and accountability in the governance process. Violence between rival militia groups is expected to continue as they compete for power and control in certain areas of the country. ADVICE: All travel to Libya should be supported by an accredited and trusted security provider with 24-hour response capability, secure journey management procedures as well as in-country intelligence and logistics support. Travellers in-country should stay up to date with local media and liaise with their security provider regarding the feasibility of ground movement during periods of unrest.

GLOBAL HEADLINES 23 – 29 NOVEMBER

RUSSIA; UKRAINE: KERCH STRAIT (MODERATE) – Tensions elevated as Russia seize Ukrainian naval vessels in Kerch Strait on 25 November The Russian Federal Security Services (FSB) border guard rammed, then fired upon, three Ukrainian naval vessels before boarding and detaining 23 Ukrainian sailors on 25 November. It is the first Russian-acknowledged use of force against Ukraine since the 2014 escalation of violence in Crimea. According to Ukrainian media, at least six crewmen were injured during the incident which occurred in the strategically important Kerch Strait, a thin waterway between mainland Russia and Crimea and the only transit route to the sea of Azov. The waterway remains crucial to Ukrainian economic and military interests as it is the only route that serves the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine. The 23 Ukrainian crewmen are now being held by Russian forces in Russian annexed Crimea. Ukraine immediate response to the incident was to call the attack, ‘an act of aggression’, while also rushing a Presidential decree through parliament, declaring 30-days of martial law in the ten regions of Ukraine bordering Russia. ADVICE: While the escalation in tensions between the two countries represents a concern for travellers, especially those operating near Russian annexed Crimea, it is unlikely that the incident will prompt anything more than a political response. Russian males will not be allowed to enter Ukraine from 30 November. Anti-Russia protests were held outside the Russian embassy in Kiev on 26 November causing minor disruption around the embassy. Travellers should remain up to date with local intelligence and media and avoid all protests as a precaution. AFGHANISTAN: KABUL (SEVERE) – Ten people killed after compound of security firm targeted in complex attack on 28 November At least ten people were killed and 19 were injured following a complex attack on a compound run by a British security company in Kabul. At 18.30, a vehicle based improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated at the entrance to the compound before armed men stormed the building leading to a fierce firefight between armed security staff and the attackers. The attack occurred hours after Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, outlined his plans to promote peace in the country. The Taliban have subsequently claimed responsibility for the attack stating that the compound was considered by the group to be a base for occupying forces and has been used to carry out attacks with Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The attack comes amidst growing anti-government protests in Kabul calling for greater political transparency and security. Thirty people have subsequently been injured following the use of live ammunition by security forces attempting to disperse protesters. ADVICE: Travel to Afghanistan should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by an accredited security provider. Terror groups have shown both the desire and capability to launch attacks in the capital Kabul. If travel is business critical, minimise time spent around religious sites, government buildings and police checkpoints. Always seek the advice of a trained security specialist prior to travel. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC): KINSHASA (HIGH) – US Embassy Kinshasa remains closed for the fifth consecutive day on 30 November following possible terrorist threat The US embassy in the capital, Kinshasa, has remained shut for a fifth consecutive day following credible and precise information of a possible terrorist threat against US government facilities in Kinshasa. The embassy released a statement to its citizens on Monday 26 November via its website urging US citizens to remain vigilant and keep a low profile. The closure comes four weeks ahead of the DRC legislative and presidential elections which have been delayed for two years. Congolese government authorities have played down the threat, stating that the US embassy has over-reacted to the incident. Although it is not known who has issued a threat toward the US, multiple militias groups are currently engaged in clashes including, the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). On 12 March 2017, a US national and special investigator for the UN was killed alongside his Swedish colleague by rebels near the city of Kananga (Lulua province) while investigating government abuses in the province. While UN investigations found the militant group Kamuina Nsapu complicit in the killing, several other investigations have identified that Congolese intelligence service, the Agence Nationale de Renseignements (ANR), were linked to the attack. ADVICE: Travellers in Kinshasa should maintain a low profile and exercise vigilance while in Kinshasa. Avoid the area near the US embassy and continue to monitor their website and local news sources for up to date information. Traveller should consider minimising movement in the city during the build-up to the election as widespread unrest is expected.

UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
30 Nov	Argentina	G20 Summit	LOW
Nov (exp)	Chad	Legislative elections (postponed)	HIGH
1 Dec	Central African Rep.	National Day	MODERATE
1 Dec	Mexico	Presidential Inauguration	MODERATE
2 Dec	Laos	National Day	LOW
2 Dec	UAE	National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates	NEGLIGIBLE
3 Dec	Poland	Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice,	NEGLIGIBLE
10 Dec	Libya	Presidential and Parliamentary elections (postponed)	HIGH
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	MODERATE
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	HIGH
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	MODERATE
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
23 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	HIGH
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 48 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Security Forecast: 23 Nov 2018

GLOBAL FORECAST: 23 – 30 NOVEMBER

GUINEA-BISSAU: URBAN CENTRES (MODERATE) – Anticipate protests following further delay in legislative elections A further delay in the deadline for voter registration has led to the postponement of legislative elections in Guinea Bissau. The polls that were meant to take place on November 18 have now been pushed back to an undetermined date. Local reports suggest only 230,000 people of the estimated 900,000 eligible voters have been registered to vote. In response to the latest interruption in election proceedings, opposition and civil society groups are expected to launch a series of rallies demanding transparency and accountability in the capital Bissau and other urban centres. On 21 October, thousands of people peacefully demonstrated in Bissau over the irregularities in the voter registration process leading to severe traffic disruptions. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.

ARGENTINA: ALL AIRPORTS (LOW) – Aviation and transport sector workers strike on 26; 27 November, severe disruption expected Employees and union members of national carrier Aerolineas Argentinas will hold a 24-hour strike on 26 November following the suspension of 376 of their colleagues who had taken part in a previous strike on 8 November. The strike will cause significant delays at all airports throughout the country, with up to 100% of flights cancelled. The 8 November strike led to the grounding of 258 flights with up to 30,000 passengers affected. Transport Unions are also planning to hold a nationwide public sector strike on 27 November from 04.00 to 07.00 (local time) affecting flights, ferries and all public transport. ADVICE: Reconfirm flight schedules with your airline before travelling to the airport. In the event of cancellations consult your travel provider for alternative arrangements.

NIGERIA: ABUJA, LAGOS, URBAN CENTRES (HIGH) – Electoral campaign period officially begins ahead of 16 February presidential election. The official campaign period began on 19 November ahead of 16 February 2019 presidential election. Travellers should anticipate a substantial increase in the frequency of political rallies and demonstrations in most major urban centres throughout Nigeria, including in the capital, Abuja, as well as the commercial centre, Lagos. Rallies are likely to cause disruption in urban centres and lead to road closures. Civil society groups will also use the opportunity to launch anti-government and anti-corruption protests. Most rallies are likely to arrange with local authorities ahead of time and pass off relatively peacefully however, security forces have a history of using tear gas and live ammunition when trying to disperse demonstrators. On 23 November, protesters amassed outside the US embassy to demand free and fair elections and draw international attention to the ongoing insecurity currently felt throughout the country. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.

FRANCE: COUNTRYWIDE (LOW) – Anticipate travel disruption as protests over increases in fuel prices continue Protest over the increase in fuel prices are expected to continue this weekend causing widespread travel disruption throughout urban centres in France. Over the past week protesters have attempted to block motorways and petrol stations leading to severe traffic delays in Pairs, Avignon, Bordeaux and Strasbourg. Organisers of the protest have stated that on Saturday, 24 November, they will launch mass protests in Paris in an attempt to bring the capital to a standstill. Demonstrations are likely to affect most major roads in the capital including the A1 and A3 highways that connect central Paris to Charles de Gaulle Airport. To read more please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between motorists and protesters, if you are caught in traffic caused by protests, remain in your car and follow the direction of the local authorities.

GLOBAL HEADLINES 16 – 23 NOVEMBER

BELGIUM: BRUSSELS (LOW) – Policeman stabbed near Grand Place on 20 November, motives unclear A policeman was stabbed, sustaining nonlife threatening injuries, in the early hours of the morning in central Brussels. The attacker, a Belgian national, was subsequently shot and wounded as police officers responded to the incident near Grand Place in the historic centre of the city. Local news agencies have reported that the attacker shouted “Allahu Akbar” during the incident. The assailant had been recently released from prison following a conviction for attempted manslaughter. In a remarkably similar attack on 30 May a gunman, who police believe was radicalised in prison, killed two police officers and one civilian in a religiously motivated attack in Liege before being shot and killed by police. The Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for the May incident. While intelligence and counter-terrorism measures have improved in Belgium since the March 2016 coordinated suicide bombings, small scale, lone wolf attacks remain possible. ADVICE: Travellers in Belgium should maintain situational awareness and report any suspicious behaviour to the police. Minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. If visiting tourist attractions, avoid peak hours.

AFGHANISTAN: KABUL (SEVERE) – Suicide explosion kills at least 60 at religious ceremony on 20 Nov At least 50 people were killed and over 80 were injured following a suicide bombing at 18:15 (local time) at Uranus Wedding Hall in police district 15, north of Kabul. Religious scholars had gathered at the wedding hall to celebrate the birthdate of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad (Eid Milad-un-Nabi). The Taliban immediately released a statement denying their involvement in the attack. While no group has yet claimed responsibility, the Islamic State in Khoresan (IS-K), an Islalmic State affiliate, have launched a string of attacks against religious minority groups over the last 12 months, calling them heretics and non-believers. To read more please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travel to Afghanistan should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by an accredited security provider. Islamist groups have shown both the desire and capability to launch attacks in the capital Kabul. If travel is business critical, minimise time spent around religious sites, government buildings and police check points. Always seek the advice of a trained security specialist prior to travel.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC): TANGANYIKA PROVINCE (HIGH) – Two American humanitarian workers killed by militants on 15 Nov Two aid workers were killed by armed militants while returning from a field visit 80 km from their office in Kalemie in the south eastern province of Tanganyika. The aid workers had been travelling by motorcycle on the road when they were stopped and shot by the armed militants. It is not yet known if the incident was motivated by criminal or other intent. Since 2016, inter-ethnic violence between the indigenous Twa and migrant Bantu populations has led to widespread displacement and insecurity in the region. Twelve refugee camps are located near Kalemie managing over 70 thousand people. In recent months there has been an escalation in attacks targeting humanitarian workers and international organisations throughout DRC’s eastern provinces. On 17 November an international NGO had its vehicles looted in Baraka (South Kivu) and on 20 November armed men attacked and looted international NGO compound in Lulimba (south Kivu). Attacks on International NGOs are likely to continue due to the high presence of armed militias and a worsening economic situation. ADVICE: Staff should understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency. Prioritise establishing networks with other organisations operating in the area with clear information sharing arrangements. Remain up to date with the latest location specific security information and trends by monitoring news sources and security alerts.

UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
24 Nov	Bahrain	Parliamentary elections	High
24 Nov	Australia	State elections	Insignificant
25 Nov	Mali	Legislative elections	High
25 Nov	Bosnia	Republic Day	Low
25 Nov	Suriname	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Albania	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Mauritania	Independence Day	Low
30 Nov	Argentina	G20 Summit	Insignificant
Nov (exp)	Chad	Legislative elections (date not announced)	High
1 Dec	Central African Rep.	National Day	Moderate
2 Dec	Laos	National Day	Low
2 Dec	UAE	National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates	Insignificant
3 Dec	Poland	Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice,	Insignificant
10 Dec	Libya	Presidential and Parliamentary elections	High
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	Moderate
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	High
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	Moderate
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	High
23 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	High
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	High

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 47 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 46-47 – Maritime Security Snapshot

The main area of activity in the past two weeks has been in the Gulf of Guinea. There have been numerous boardings and attacks; this includes a kidnapping that required Nigerian Navy intervention. By contrast, the Indian Ocean HRA has been relatively quiet over the past weeks with no significant incidents since the attack on 16 October off the Somali coast and the two suspicious approaches in Bab el Mandeb Strait at the beginning of November. Elsewhere, the Mediterranean has been seeing GPS outages near Port Said and Cyprus since March. While it remains unclear what is causing these disruptions, it is likely that military operations by both the Egyptian military and the Russian Navy are the cause. Please see below for more:

Gulf of Guinea

11 November: Vessel attacked and boarded by armed men near Bonny, Nigeria. A drifting UK-flagged bulk carrier was attacked and boarded by armed pirates at position 4°7’0 N 7°0’0 E. The boarders stole ship stores, robbed the vessel and kidnapped 10 members of the crew before escaping. Nigerian Navy vessels intercepted the pirates and freed the hostages. 11 November: MV attacked by armed men in blue boat, Niger River, Nigeria. A MV was attacked by eight armed men at 0600 UTC 2nm off the mouth of the River Niger, Nigeria. The attackers were in a small blue-coloured boat, wore black/dark clothes, and covered their faces. The security team onboard the vessel thwarted the attack; however, the assailants escaped. 14 November: Tanker boarded near Lagos, Nigeria. An intruder was spotted onboard by a crewmember who sounded the alarm. As the crew gathered, the intruder fled by jumping overboard. No items were stolen and no injuries to the crew were reported. The authorities are investigating the incident. 14 November: A black speedboat with six armed men onboard sighted in Emeroke Channel, Nigeria It is unclear what the target of the suspicious vessel was. This is the second such sighting of a suspicious vessel in the area. On 5 November a similar vessel with armed men on board was sighted near Akwa Ibom Creeks. 19 November: The Nigerian Navy has impounded 52 vessels and arrested 40 people for alleged piracy. According to the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC), Western Naval Command, Rear Admiral Habila Ngalabak, the arrests have occurred over the past two to three months as part of a push against piracy-related activities in this period. 22 November: Nigerian flagged vessel boarded by pirates in the Gulf of Guinea, south of Kwa Ibo. The crew took refuge in the citadel as the pirates boarded the vessel. The boarders left via a blue hulled boat before a security vessel managed to intervene. The crew is reported safe and no crewmen were kidnapped. However, there was some damage to the bridge. The direction that the pirates escaped in is unknown.

Bab El-Mandeb Strait

November: Arab Coalition Forces destroy 16 naval mines off Yemen’s west coast. According to Arab coalition sources, the mines had been planted by Houthi militants in international waters. It is unclear if further mines remain in the area.

Mediterranean

11 November: Multiple instances of GPS interference reported by vessels and aircraft operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. These reports have been concentrated near Port Said and the Suez Canal, Egypt, as well as in the vicinity of the Republic of Cyprus. Additional instances of similar interference were reported in October 2018 near Jeddah Port, Saudi Arabia. This interference results in the loss of, or altering of, GPS signals; affecting bridge navigation, GPS-based timing and communications equipment. 17 November: Six Greenpeace activists boarded tanker Stolt Tenacity in Gulf of Cadiz Greenpeace reportedly targeted the vessel as a sign of protest against rainforest destruction in Indonesia; as the ship was carrying palm oil products from Wilmar International. According to Greenpeace, Wilmar is a major supplier to global snack food giant Mondelez; one of the world’s largest purchasers of palm oil. The captain of the vessel detained the borders.

Persian Gulf and India

17 November: Boarding at Kakinada Anchorage in India. Unnoticed, robbers boarded an anchored product tanker, stole ship’s stores and escaped. The theft was noticed during routine rounds. Port control and agents were informed. 18 November: Iranian Navy vows to maintain its presence on the high seas. An Iranian Navy commander has vowed that Iran’s navy is vital to secure the country’s interests despite threats from the US and a recent incident with UK destroyer HMS Diamond. He also insisted that the country’s “strong” navy would maintain its presence on the high seas so that other countries will not “take advantage”. There was also talk of the Iranian navy operating in the Atlantic “whenever necessary”.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 46-47 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Suicide Explosion, Airport Road, Kabul

TRAVEL ADVICE

Avoid the vicinity Uranus Wedding Hall on Airport Road until the blast site has been cleared by authorities. If you are currently in the area, minimise movement until the situation stabilises and comply with all security force directives
Road closures are expected in the vicinity of the attack on Airport Road. Liaise with your security provider regarding the feasibility of essential road movement near the airport. If travelling to Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) use the south-north route from Wazir Akbar Khan via Airport Road
Monitor Solace Global Alerts for further updates.

SITUATION SUMMARY At least 55 people have been killed and 80 wounded following the detonation of a suicide bomb at a wedding hall in Kabul. The attack occurred at the Uranus Wedding Hall on Airport Road (Police District 15) at approximately 18.15 (local time). The terrorist evaded security before entering the main building and detonating the explosive device on the first floor. Local reports indicate that Sufi Muslims had gathered in wedding hall to commemorate Mawlid al-Nabi al-Sharif, the birthday of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad. Attacks targeting religious minorities have increased over the last 12 months as the Islamic State (IS) seek to create and exploit sectarian rifts in Afghanistan. On 15 August, an IS bomber detonated their explosives at a private education centre in a Shia neighbourhood in west Kabul, killing 48 people, including several prominent Shia journalists. On August 3, 40 people were killed in a complex attack on Shia worshippers at a Mosque in Gardez city (Paktia province). While no group has yet claimed responsibility for today’s bombinh, it follows a continued trend of targeted attacks against minority groups in Afghanistan. Travellers currently in Kabul should minimise all movements near Hamid Karzai International Airport until the situation stabilises.

Solace Global remains available to provide the full range of Travel Risk Management services to clients throughout Afghanistan. Solace Global is also able to provide comprehensive crisis management, in-country journey management, tracking, response, and evacuation services. For further details please contact +44 (0)1202 308 810 or email risk@localhost Download the latest travel advisory here. Afghanistan – Travel Advisory

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46

Headlines From This Week

United States: Wildfires ongoing in California as latest death toll hits record numbers – Fifty-six people have been killed and 130 people are unaccounted for in the deadliest wildfire ever recorded in California state. The blaze, which started as a result of a campfire, spread rapidly towards urban centres in northern California fuelled by the critically dry vegetation and strong winds. Over 52,000 people have been evacuated from Paradise, Magalia, Concow, Butte Creek Canyon and Butte Valley and rest centres have been established outside the fire zone. More than 9,000 firefighters have been deployed to help tackle the blaze and thousands in the affected area remain without power. Travellers should avoid all areas affected by the wildfire, especially where mandatory evacuation orders are in place. Liaise with local contacts to determine the feasibility of routes and overland journeys. Follow all directives issued by the authorities.

Mozambique: Latest attack highlights continued militant threat in Cabo Delgado – In the early hours of 15 November, militants in Cabo Delgado province attacked Nagalue village, Macomia district killing one person and destroying homes and shops. Residents fled into the surrounding areas upon hearing the attack. Armed groups have been launching small-scale attacks in Cabo Delgado since October 2017, targeting police stations, shops and houses in the province leading to 90 death of mostly civilians. Unlike terror incidents, the armed group are yet to claim responsibility for the attacks or make any demands. While most of the militants are rumoured to be of Muslim faith, there is a limited religious connection to the attacks, suggesting they may be linked to the worsening socio-economic situation in the region. Foreign visitors planning on travel to Cabo Delgado should limit movements to daylight hours only and ensure secure journey management is in place for the duration of their travel.

Somalia: Complex attack in capital Mogadishu underscores continued capability of terrorist groups to attack high profile targets – Fifty people were killed and over 100 injured in a complex, multi-target attack in the Hodan district of the capital. Three vehicle-based explosive devices detonated outside three main buildings on the busy KM4 roundabout near the first checkpoint for Mogadishu International Airport (MIA). One of the buildings targeted was the Sahafi Hotel and militants attempted to storm the building after the blasts. Al Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack which is the first major attack on the capital for several months. Somalia remains a severe risk travel environment and all travel should be supported by an accredited security provider with 24-hour response capability. Accommodation should be booked inside the secure MIA compound.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Ceasefire between Hamas and Israeli Government ends three-day escalation in violence in southern Israel and Hamas controlled Gaza – Tensions between the two groups escalated after Israel launched a military operation in the Gaza strip leading to the first direct ground confrontation between the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and Hamas since Operation Protection Edge in 2014. One Israeli soldier and seven Palestinians were killed in the raid and Israeli air defence was needed to support the evacuation of the IDF unit. In response to the incursion, Hamas launched a rocket that destroyed a military bus and injured a soldier. Israel retaliated by targeting and destroying an alleged munitions storage site, an intelligence base and television station. Hamas subsequently launched 400 missiles at Israel over the next 48 hours and the IDF targeting more than 100 sites in Gaza. The ceasefire, which has brought an end to the current hostilities, has been met with condemnation by the Israeli parliament and the situation should be monitored by all travellers going to southern Israel in the coming months.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Bahrain: National assembly elections to be held 24 November, amidst rising tensions between Shia and Sunni communities – In June 2018, legislation approved by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa banned most opposition parties from running in November election. Al-Wefaq, the main opposition party, subsequently called for all Shia aligned political parties to boycott of the elections. On 4 November, Bahrain sentenced three prominent Al-Wefaq politicians to life imprisonment on charges of spying including their secretary general, Sheikh Ali Salman. Tensions between the ruling powers in Bahrain and Shia opposition groups has been evident since 2011, when Shia communities participated in widespread anti-government protests. Since 2011, protests have been held weekly in smaller Shia villages, outside the capital Manama. While the Bahrain government will try and suppress political protests during the election period, travellers should anticipate protests in areas close to Manama. Low-level Shia militant attacks cannot be ruled out and travellers should minimise their time spent near potential targets.

Bangladesh: Election date deferred until 30 December, anticipate unrest in coming weeks as political campaigning begins Opposition parties had requested a longer deferral from the Bangladesh Election Committee (BEC), in order to prepare for the upcoming elections. The main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted parliamentary elections in 2014 due to perceived corruption and fraud by the ruling Awami League resulting in 154 of the 300 parliamentary being uncontested. The perceived injustice and lack of free and fair elections led to countrywide protests and widespread violence. The military were subsequently deployed, and curfews were imposed in several neighbourhoods. Fears that the 2018 election would result in a major deterioration of the security environment have been allayed by the involvement of the main opposition groups; however, existing tensions are likely to lead to major unrest in urban centres. On 14 November 32 people were injured when the BNP and security forces clashed in Dhaka as supporters accompanied a BNP candidate to pick up their election nomination papers. Travellers should anticipate an uptick in political demonstrations and rallies in the coming weeks as parties start campaigning. Travellers should further, take all precautions necessary to avoid all such gatherings.

Cameroon: Violence to continue in Northwest and Southwest regions – Clashes between the Cameroon military and Anglophone separatists have escalated since the re-election of Paul Biya in October, causing a further deterioration in the security environment. Separatist announced a boycott prior to the 7 October polls, leading to historically low voter turnout, with many residents fearful of repercussions if they tried to vote. Violence has subsequently escalated since Paul Biya’s re-election was announced, with clashes between the military and insurgents being reported daily and schools and government-run institutions being targeted by insurgents. The separatist movement gathered pace last year when the Cameroon military forcefully repressed peaceful protests calling for the declaration of an independent Anglophone state. In response the Cameroon military used forceful measures to end the unrest, killing protesters and arresting the main leaders of the separatist movement. Over the last 12 months, the situation has escalated dramatically with over 300 separate security incidents being reported since January. With no current dialogue between the insurgents and the government, the crisis, and increasing insecurity, will likely continue in the medium to long-term. The Northwest region remains under curfew and road travel is only possible between 06.00 and 18.00 (local time). Travel to the region should be for essential purposed only and supported by an accredited security with 24-hour response capability.

Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
18 Nov	Guinea Bissau	Legislative elections	POSTPONED
18 Nov	Latvia	Independence Day	Insignificant
18 Nov	Morocco	Independence Day	Insignificant
18 Nov	Oman	National Day (2-day holiday)	Insignificant
21, 23 Nov	Thailand	Lantern Festival (disruption at Chang Mai, reconfirm flights)	Insignificant
22 Nov	Lebanon	Independence Day	Low
24 Nov	Bahrain	Parliamentary elections	Moderate
24 Nov	Australia	State elections	Insignificant
25 Nov	Mali	Legislative elections	High
25 Nov	Bosnia	Republic Day	Low
25 Nov	Suriname	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Albania	Independence Day	Low
28 Nov	Mauritania	Independence Day	Low
Nov (exp)	Chad	Legislative elections (date not announced)	High
1 Dec	Central African Rep.	National Day	Moderate
2 Dec	Laos	National Day	Low
2 Dec	UAE	National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates	Insignificant
3 Dec	Poland	Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice,	Insignificant

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. The Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45

Headlines From This Week

Untied States: California: Mass Shooting in Bar – Twelve people were killed, and multiple injuries reported, after a gunman opened fire at 23.20 in a crowded bar on 7 November. The Borderline Bar and Grill was hosting a live music event for students when the gunman forced his way into the bar and threw a smoke grenade before opening fire on the crowd. The perpetrator was killed after security forces entered and secured the building. No motive for the attack has been identified and investigations are ongoing. There have been 307 mass shootings in the US since 1 January. The attack highlights a continued threat posed by mass shootings throughout the US and travellers should remain vigilant when in public areas.
France: Arrest of six people in connection with far-right terrorist plot – French security forces apprehended six people over an alleged plot to attack French President Emmanuel Macron. According to local reports the suspects, aged between 20 and 60, were all members of a far-right movement and one of the suspects was found in possession of a firearm when he was arrested. The recent arrests, while indicating the capability of the intelligence services to identify and disrupt such plots, highlight an uptick in right-wing extremism across Europe that is likely to persist in the medium to long term.
Yemen: Hodeidah: Fighting intensifies near port city – The Saudi-led coalition have started a renewed offensive against the vital port city, launching over 100 airstrikes on the eastern part of Hodeidah in the last 72 hours and cutting off all access routes. The increase in hostilities comes amidst calls from international governments to negotiate a ceasefire due to increasing civilian casualties. UN-sponsored peace talks are scheduled to take place in Sweden at the end of November and the recent Saudi-led offensive is believed to be a tactic to secure as much ground as possible prior to any cease fire being implemented. The port has been under blockade by the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, a decision that has been blamed for the current humanitarian crisis affecting 14 million people in Yemen. Despite the blockade, over 70 percent of food and medical supplies for Houthi held areas of Yemen come through Hodeidah.
Sahel Region: Burkina Faso; Chad; Niger; Mauritania, Mali: Islamist militants intensify attacks against security forces – There has been an escalation in attacks being committed by Islamist groups against security forces in the Sahel region. On 8 November, a Police Station was attacked by militants in Soum province (Sahel region) and two days earlier two soldiers were killed in the same province of Burkina Faso following the detonation of an IED near a military convoy. On 3 November Nigerien military units engaged with Islamist militants in Tillaberi region, along the border with Mali and Burkina Faso, destroying several training camps associated with Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). On 27 October, Islamist militants launched two attacks on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in Tombouctou and Mopti regions. Militants launched a complex attack on the MINUSMA military base in Ber, killing two peacekeepers. A further attack targeted a MINUSMA convoy with an IED, injuring two peacekeepers. The recent escalation in violence highlights a continued deterioration in the security environment and travellers should seek professional security advice prior to travel to any of the border regions.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pape New Guinea (PNG): APEC Economic Leaders Meeting (AELM) to cause travel disruption in Port Moresby from 12 – 18 November – The Summit brings national delegates from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation together and is the final event of PNGs APEC hosting year. The main two event venues include the International Convention centre and APEC Haus and travellers in country should anticipate severe disruption around both the venues. Local authorities have drafted in additional police resources in an effort to bolster security. Road closures should be expected, especially when dignitaries are moving between venues and Jacksons International Airport. The PNG government has been widely criticised amongst opposition and religious leaders in the country due to the high levels of spending on the event. PNG remains one of the poorest countries in the region and the summit is likely to result in protests over both, internal socio-economic issues and global issues affecting PNG, such as climate change. Such protests are expected to be localised and quickly contained. Nevertheless, as a precaution, all such protests should be avoided.
Myanmar / Bangladesh: Repatriation of Rohingya refugees set to begin – The governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar have agreed to begin the repatriation of 750,000 Rohingya refugees who fled western Rakhine state in 2017 following widescale ethnic violence directed towards Muslim communities. For the last year the Rohingya’s have been living in camps established in south-eastern Bangladesh near the coastal town of Cox’s Bazar. The presence of refugees in the region has added considerable strain to the Bangladesh economy and lead to tensions between local communities and refugee communities, over competition for scarce natural resources. The repatriation agreement has been met by widespread condemnation from international groups, including the UN, who state that the Rohingya’s are at high risk of persecution if they return. The UN’s High Commission for Refugees also added that Rakhine state was not yet in a conducive state for returns. The announcement has led to isolated protests in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh with one refugee attempting to commit suicide after being told that he would be involuntarily repatriated. Any forced repatriation is likely to be met by strong resistance by Rohingya communities and widespread unrest and civil disobedience remains likely in the coming weeks.
France: Travel disruption expected during protests near Place de la Republique, Paris, on 11 November – French civil action groups have called for a widespread protest following President Macron’s decision to invite US President Donald Trump as honoured guest to the 100^th anniversary commemorative event celebrating Armistice Day, the end of World War I. Protesters will gather at 14.00 on 11 November in Republic Square. The event is likely to be well attended and result in widespread traffic disruption in the local area. Travellers should plan routes bypassing the event and anticipate heightened security in the local area.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44

Headlines From This Week

One killed and 20 injured after a suicide bomber detonated explosive device in Tunisia’s capital Tunis on 29 October – The explosion occurred just before 14:00 (local time) in the centrally located Avenue Habib Bourguiba, not far from the ministry of interior and the French Embassy. The attack killed the perpetrator, wounding 20 bystanders including 15 members of the security forces, who appear to have been the intended target. The targeted bombing is the first major terror attack in Tunisia since 2015 when a series of attacks led to the government imposing a state of emergency which remains in place. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. The 30-year-old female bomber came from a small village outside the coastal city Mahdia (Mahdia governorate). At present, there is no known connection to terrorist organisations although security forces have speculated that family members could be associated with the Islamic State.
Demonstrations result in violent confrontation between protesters and security forces in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja – Protests erupted on 29 and 30 October in Abuja over the continued imprisonment of Ibrahim Zakzaky, leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN). Shia groups who had gathered to celebrate the Muslim holy day, Arbaeen, on 30 October attempted to march on the city centre but were stopped by Nigerian Security forces. The marchers responded by throwing rocks at the police who subsequently used tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse the gathering. IMN supporters have vowed to continue their campaign calling for the release of Zakzary, who has been detained since December 2015. Further protests remain possible in the coming days and will likely lead to clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Travellers should leave at the first sign that protesters or security forces are gathering. Further travel disruption is likely as protesters seek to blockade main roads.
The Taliban claim 407 attacks over parliamentary and district elections – The largest attack occurred when a suicide bomber detonated their explosives outside a polling centre in Kabul, killing 15 people. There were numerous reports of militants blocking roads near polling centres across the country and polling centres refusing to open over security fears on 7 October, leading to frustration amongst voters. There have been 193 separate security incidents recorded by independent groups highlighting the capability of militants to disrupt the political process. Following the conclusion of voting electoral commission centres have been targeted by suicide bombers in Jalalabad and Kabul in the last week leading to multiple fatalities. Tensions are likely to remain high until the release of the vote around 20 November with further attacks targeting candidates, the electoral commission and vote counting centres likely.
Increasing socio-economic issues in Honduras sparks migrant caravan heading to US – Following a social media campaign, several hundred low-income Hondurans who departed from San Pedro grew to 5,000 as they crossed the border to Guatemala on 12 October. The caravan reached the Mexican border by 19 October where they encountered and clashed with Mexican security forces, leading to the death of one migrant. The group is expected to grow as the move towards the US border, isolated clashes between security forces and migrants remain likely.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Opposition groups in Brazil have called for mass protests following the election of far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro – The Brazil presidential second-round runoff saw controversial right-wing candidate Bolsonaro claim 55 percent of the vote, successfully defeating the left-wing contender Fernando Haddad. Bolsonaro indicated throughout his campaign the desire to implement aggressive economic changes through privatisations, deregulation and reduced public spending which are likely to improve investor confidence in Brazil; however, the president-elect remains a controversial figure and his successful candidacy has already provoked country-wide protests on 30 October. Bolsonaro has promised to relax gun control, while making abortion illegal and any future campaigns to implement such measures is likely to lead to further country-wide civil unrest.
Political turmoil shows no sign of abating in Sri Lanka – The political unrest caused by the sacking of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and decision to replace him with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa continues to impact the South Asian country. On 1 November, it appeared that politicians were to be allowed to return to the suspended parliament. However, it has now been communicated by associates of Rajapaksa that parliament will stay shut until 16 November. The decision is a blow for Wickremesinghe, who maintains that he holds a majority in parliament and has been calling for a vote among MPs. There are continued fears that the continued tensions will result in further protest action which has the potential for violence.
Protests spread across Pakistan following acquittal of Christian woman imprisoned on blasphemy charges – Widespread protests have broken out in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, leading to the erection of roadblocks on several major roads and severe travel disruption. Hard-line Islamist group Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP), who have been at the forefront of the unrest, have called for nationwide strikes on 2 November following failed talks with the Pakistan government. In response, the government have shut down mobile services in Islamabad and several other provinces. Pakistan’s new prime minister, Imran Khan, threatened a forceful response if protesters did not disperse highlighting the potential for clashes between protesters and security forces. Travellers in Pakistan should minimise movements outside high-security areas in the coming days as unrest is likely to continue. Consider deferring business travel to Pakistan until after 5 November.
Tanzanian authorities ask public to name people suspected of being gay – Paul Makonda, regional commissioner for Dar es Salaam, called on the public to report on any person they knew or suspected of being gay. According to local reports a 17-member special committee has been established to investigate the claims. The team have received over 5,500 messages from the public and identified over 100 individuals. LGBT activists and international human rights groups have condemned the move by the Tanzanian government – stating that thousands of Tanzanians are now living in fear. Tanzania, a country where it is illegal to be homosexual, has a history of violent attacks against the LGBT community, committed by both the public and security forces. Travel risk management plans should be updated to included recent developments and additional precautions should be considered by all travellers.

Week 43/4 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

28 October 18: Pirate whaler seized and destroyed by EU NAVFOR: EU NAVFOR military personnel seized an active Pirate Action Group (PAG) whaler on 28 October before destroying the vessel in a controlled explosion. The whaler had been under surveillance since a merchant vessel was attacked off the coast of Somalia on 16 October (see maritime advisory). Following investigations by EU NAVFOR it was concluded that it was likely that the vessel would be used to launch further attacks on maritime shipping transiting the area. The vessel was tracked to a small bay off the Somali coast, where it was seized and destroyed. 23 October 18: Royal Navy vessel intercepted by Iranian attack boats in the Persian Gulf. HMS Dragon, a Royal Navy type 45 Destroyer, was intercepted by three Iranian gun boats while escorting British vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident sparked a stand-off between the two naval forces. The Iranian gunships demanded that the British vessels remain 1000 yards clear of their port side. Following communications between the Officer of the Watch and the Iranian authorities the Iranian vessels eventually moved aside however, the incident highlights ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

22 October 18: Vessel boarded at Pointe Noire. Suspected criminals boarded an anchored MV at 23.28 LT in position 4°46°46N – 11°47°30E off Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo. The two armed men boarded the vessel via the anchor chain and proceeded to steal ropes before disembarking. Crew and vessel have been reported safe. 27 October 18: MV attacked 60nm from Bonny, Nigeria. At 04.00 LT a distress call was received on the Emergency Broadcast Channel 16 from a MV in position 03°21N 006°30E. The vessel declared that it was being chased by two skiffs before it started moving in a circular motion. The attack has since been confirmed by the Nigerian Navy. 11 crew members are suspected to have been kidnapped, nine further crew members were left on board, unharmed. An investigation by Nigerian authorities is underway. 29 October 18: Two MV under attack 102nm of Pointe Noire. Two vessels were reported under attack at 12.50 LT in position 04°47S 010°07E. One MV and its crew are safe however the second MV is reported hijacked. Last position recorded at 14.24 LT at position 04°42S 010°04E. A further report indicates a third vessel was subsequently hijacked but has now been released.

Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

17 October 18: Anchored Bulk Carrier boarded by criminals at Muara Berau Anchorage, Samarinda Two armed men boarded an anchored bulk carrier. The duty seaman notified the duty officer after noticing intruders on forecastle deck. The alarm was raised and crew mustered. On investigation, the ship stores were reportedly stolen. The relevant authorities were notified of incident.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43

Headlines From This Week

Foreign national killed in Madagascar – A French national who had been a long-time resident in Madagascar was killed during an armed robbery in the Ankadikely Ilafy suburb of the capital Antananarivo. Police are currently searching for the assailants and it remains unclear at this time if the person was targeted specifically due to his nationality. Crime rates are high throughout the capital and the wider country due to the poor economic conditions and rising inequality. Robberies are common and foreigners can be targeted due to their presumed wealth. This incident is the second attack on a foreign national in as many months; in September, a United States diplomat was found dead in his residence following what is being investigated as a homicide.
Japanese hostage returns after three years in Syria – A freelance journalist has returned to Japan after spending three years in captivity in Syria. Jumpei Yasuda who went missing after travelling from Turkey to Syria in 2015, was confirmed captured in a video posted by militants in Syria in March 2016; allegedly by the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. Yasuda has come under pressure to reveal more details regarding his time in captivity. His health was checked prior to boarding the plane to Tokyo. The Japanese foreign ministry stated that no ransom had been paid.
Multiple companies snub Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia – Due to the ongoing situation over the death of the Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, numerous companies snubbed the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia. Dubbed “Davos in the Desert”, the conference intends to set the Saudi economy up for the “post-oil future”. Despite several major companies withdrawing from the event, many still attended with some understood to have signed deals with Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Saudi’s finance minister has announced that non-oil revenue grew by 48 percent in Q3.
Multiple suspicious packages sent to Democrats and the CNN building in the US – Numerous suspicious packages were sent to the addresses of a number of prominent Democratic politicians and Trump critics on 24 and 25 October. While not confirmed for all the devices, it has been reported that at least one contained a “live explosive device”. All packages have thus far been intercepted with no injuries being reported. The FBI is currently investigating to find the person or people responsible for sending the packages. Every person who has been targeted by the packages has been on the receiving end of insults from President Donald Trump.
The UK FCO now advises against travel to areas in northern Benin – The UK’s FCO are now advising against all travel to the Parc du W as well as Meêkrou and Djona, and against all but essential travel to the area between the Interstate Highway (RNIE) 2 (Tchaourou to Malanville) and the Nigerian border. The change in advice coincides with an increase in militant activity in the area. Attacks in Benin can’t be ruled out. Benin contributes to both the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to combat Boko Haram and the UN peacekeeping initiative in Mali (MINUSMA) and may therefore be considered a legitimate target by terrorist groups in the wider region including IS West Africa (ISWA), Boko Haram and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQ-M).

What To Look Out For Next Week

Mob violence increasing due to fake WhatsApp group messages in India – Allegations being spread by the messaging service WhatsApp is resulting in a string of vigilante murders. Parents of victims of the so-called “WhatsApp murders” are increasingly demanding action by the Indian government. At least 27 men have recently been beaten to death by mobs who wrongly accused them of being child snatchers. Women have also been killed after being accused of being witches. Thus far the government has been slow in its response; however, WhatsApp has implemented limited measures, such as limiting the number of people someone can mass forward messages to, in an effort to tackle the growing problem. All of the victims have been local nationals and allegations include either the harming or the snatching of children. Foreigners should exercise caution as vigilante attacks escalate quickly and tend to target those unfamiliar to locals. While foreigners have not been targeted yet, there remains a threat that they could be targeted in further attacks.
Polls set to open for the second round of Brazil’s presidential election on 28 October – The second round of Brazil’s presidential election is set to take place on Sunday, 28 October. The runoff pits the controversial far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro against a more moderate left-wing candidate Fernando Haddad. Bolsonaro has been dubbed the “Trump of Brazil” and survived an assassination attempt during his presidential campaign. Haddad replaces long-time, and popular, politician Lula da Silva who has been barred from running due to corruption charges. While Bolsonaro won the first round comfortably, and is favourite for the second round; the vote is close, and tensions remain high. Demonstrations are likely to cause severe travel disruption and clashes between supporters remain a threat. Travellers should consider any movement outside secure accommodation on election day, liaise with local contacts to assess the feasibility of routes.
Argentina austerity measures approved by Congress – The Argentine government has approved a new wave of austerity measures after a 14-hour debate by the country’s congress. The measures are widely unpopular in the South American country with protests likely. There has already been unrest in the build-up to the vote by Congress; with protesters clashing with police outside governmental buildings. Riot police were forced to fire rubber bullets and employ tear gas and water cannons in an effort to disperse the demonstrators outside of the Congress building in Buenos Aires. This unrest is likely to continue in the coming days and potentially weeks. The austerity measures were vital for the Argentine government to secure an IMF loan.
Continued fallout from Saudi journalist case – Ankara has announced that it has more evidence regarding the killing of Jamal Khashoggi and has called on Saudi officials to reveal who ordered the killing. Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s chief prosecutor is due to visit Istanbul on Sunday, 28 October, as part of the investigation. Investigations by both countries continue and 18 Saudi nationals have been arrested.

Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for unrest
25-28 Oct	Mexico	Referendum on new Mexico City Airport
26 Oct	Austria	National Day
26 Oct	Ireland	Presidential election
27 Oct	St Vincent and Grenadines	Independence Day
27 Oct	Turkmenistan	Independence Day
27 Oct	Gabon	Legislative Election (second round)	High Potential for violence
28 Oct	Georgia	Presidential election
28 Oct	Brazil	Presidential election (second round)	High potential for violence
28 Oct	Czech Rep.	Independence Day
29 Oct	Turkey	Closure of Ataturk Airport, Istanbul Republic Day
30 Oct	Israel	Municipal Elections	Low potential for violence
31 Oct	Global	Halloween
31 Oct	Burkina Faso	March planned in Ouagadougou to commemorate 4^th anniversary of 2014 popular uprising	Moderate potential for violence
31 Oct	Mexico	Water cuts in Mexico from 31 October to November 3
1 Nov	Antigua and Barbuda	Independence Day
1 Nov	Algeria	Revolution Day
1 Nov	United Kingdom	Bank of England meeting with Inflation report
3 Nov	Dominica	Independence Day
5 Nov	United Kingdom	Bonfire Night
6 Nov	United States	Midterm elections
7 Nov	Madagascar	Presidential Election
7 Nov	Global	Diwali

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42

Headlines From This Week

At least 20 people were killed following shooting in Kerch, Crimea – Dozens were also wounded following the shooting in a college in Kerch on 17 October. Russia’s Investigative Committee said that an 18-year old student entered the school and left a nail bomb in the cafeteria before detonating the explosive remotely. He then began shooting indiscriminately at people before killing himself. Five teacher and 15 students have so far been confirmed to have died in the attack with the death toll likely to rise. Local government officials have declared a state-of-emergency in wake of the incident. Despite the incident, the security situation in Crimea has remained relatively calm since March 2017 referendum when citizens voting overwhelmingly to re-unite with Russia.
Protests reported following firefight in Srinagar, Indian administrated Jammu and Kashmir – Protests erupted in Srinagar on 18 October after two suspected militant and a civilian were killed following a counter insurgency operation. The firefight, between Indian security forces and militants, occurred after the security forces raided a home in the Fateh Kadal area of the city, apprehending a man suspected of being a member of a militant group. Several journalists were arrested as they tried to report on the situation. Anti-Indian demonstrations by residents quickly followed the incident with security forces firing tear gas towards protesters. Communication, including mobile and internet services, were shut down in the city in an attempt to stop the situation further escalating. While communications have now been restored, local anger over counter-insurgency operations is likely to lead to further unrest in the coming days.
Fatalities following clashes during protests in Comoros – Three people were killed on 16 October following clashes between protesters and security forces on Anjouan island. Authorities imposed a curfew on the largest town on the island, Mutsamudu, however demonstrations continued overnight resulting in the use of tear gas and live ammunition by security forces to disperse protesters. Instability has rocked Anjouan Island since 30 July national referendum that made constitutional reforms allowing current incumbent, Assoumani, to run for a second term in 2021. Previously the presidency would rotate every year between Comoros’ three Islands. Opposition parties boycotted the vote in July, denouncing it as a power grab by Assoumani. A government crackdown on opposition politicians, including arrests and censorship of media institutes, is likely to exacerbate tensions. Clashes between protesters and security forces is likely to continue in the short to medium term.
Fatalities resulted from flooding in Aude, southern France – At least 13 people have been killed after flash flooding struck the southern French department of Aude. Several months of rain fell in a few hours resulting in the water rising quickly in many towns and villages. The Aude River rose by 7 meters in some places An Interior Ministry spokesman stated that nine of the deaths centred on the town of Trebes. The flooding is believed to be the worst in the region since 1891. Around 700 firefighters were deployed with around 160 police officers and seven helicopters. Local travel disruption is expected to continue over the coming days.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Prominent Afghan police general assassinated in Kandahar – Abdul Razaq, one of Afghanistan’s most senior Police Chiefs, was assassinated in a targeted attack on 18 October 2018 in Kandahar city. The general had just left a meeting at the provincial governor’s compound when his bodyguard opened fire killing the general, the provincial governor and a senior intelligence official. Gen. Scott Miller, commander of NATO Resolute Support, attended the meeting but was reportedly unharmed in the incident. Although Gen. Razaq remained a controversial figure, his administration of Kandahar, alongside strong relationships with local Pashtun leaders, brought stability to the province and the wider region. Parliamentary elections in Kandahar will be postponed for one week following the incident due increased fears around security. Gen. Razaq’s death is expected to have a ripple effect across the province, leading to a resurgence of anti-government opposition from prominent tribal families and a deterioration in the security environment.
Ebola epidemic continues in eastern provinces of Congo DR – New cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have been confirmed in both Beni and North Kivu following a brief lull in confirmed cases. The international response to the Ebola outbreak has been hampered by access issues due to ongoing insurgency and the insecurity throughout such regions. Recent cases have been documented within miles of the border regions with Rwanda and Uganda. Local medical facilities in the area remain severely under resourced to deal with the crisis however, several international NGO’s have now established treatment centres in the hope they minimise the spread of the disease. While the most recent outbreak of EVD in the DRC remains limited in its spread, there remains a risk that it might cross land borders becoming an international crisis and much harder to control. Travellers should defer all travel to the eastern provinces of the DRC at the current time. Land borders are currently being heavily regulated by Rwandan and Ugandan border forces and delays are expected.
Campaigning set to intensify ahead of November 7 Madagascan presidential election – Madagascar will go to the polls on November 7 to vote on the next president. The 2009 political crisis, brought on by increasing levels of inequality, ended in a coup d’état, deposing Marc Ravalomanana after the then president imposed increasingly authoritative polices to supress unrest. In the intervening years Madagascar has struggled to economise, leading to high levels if poverty and a lack of development. This year’s election is seen as vital to ensuring better economic prospects for the country and reducing levels of crime and unrest. At this time, 92 percent of the Malagasy population living in absolute poverty (under 2 dollars a day) political stability and consensus will be essential to tackling the economic crisis. Thirty-six candidates will run in the first round including Ravalomanana as well as the leaders of the 2009 coup Andry Rajoelina. If there is no outright winner achieving 51%, a runoff will be contested between the two candidates who receive the highest vote share on 19 December. Travellers in Madagascar should expect an increase in political demonstrations in the coming weeks as the campaigning intensifies. Local travel disruption should be expected as well as localised clashes between protesters and security forces.

Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
19 Oct	Bangladesh	Durga Puja
19 Oct	Belgium	12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM)
20 Oct	London	Protest, Park Lane to Parliament Square at 12.00
20 Oct	Guatemala	Revolution Day
20 Oct	Kenya	Mashujaa Day
20 Oct	Afghanistan	Parliamentary and District Elections	High potential for violence
21 Oct	Cameroon	Planned march in Douala over elections irregularities	Moderate potential for violence
23 Oct	Guinea	Planned protest in Conakry over cost of living	High potential for violence
24 Oct	Tunisia	Nationwide union strikes over economic grievances	Moderate potential for violence
24 Oct	Zambia	Independence Day
24 Oct to 25 Oct	Canada	Summit on reforming the World Trade Organisation
25 Oct	China	Japanese Prime Minister to visit China
26 Oct	Ireland	Presidential Election
26 Oct	Congo DR	Nationwide rallies expected as campaigning for 23 Dec presidential election begins
26 Oct	Austria	National day
27 Oct	St Vincent and Grenadines	Independence Day
27 Oct	Turkmenistan	Independence Day
28 Oct	Gabon	Legislative Election (second round)	Moderate potential for violence
28 Oct	Georgia	Presidential election
28 Oct	Brazil	Presidential election (second round)	Moderate potential for violence
29 Oct	Turkey	Closure of Ataturk Airport, Istanbul Republic Day
31 Oct	Burkina Faso	March planned in Ouagadougou to commemorate 4^th anniversary of 2014 popular uprising
31 Oct	Mexico	Water cuts in Mexico from 31 October to November 3

Week 42 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

16 October 18: MV attacked off 340nm east of Mogadishu, Somalia. Four pirates in a speed boat approached an underway bulk carrier at 1234 UTC in position 00°49N, 050°53E. The pirates, armed with AK-47s, fired several shots towards the vessel prompting the Master to raise the alarm, contact local authorities and activate the ship security alarm system (SSAS). The crew mustered and armed guards onboard the vessel returned fire, resulting in the pirates aborting the attack and moving out of site. All crew reported safe. 16 October 18: Alain Goma freed after being held by Houthi rebels for four months in Sana’a, Yemen. Intense negotiations between the French Envoy to Yemen and Houthi leaders resulted in the release of the French citizen. Goma had been held since July when his vessel was damaged on a sailing trip forcing him to dock at the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was being occupied by the Houthi rebels. He was later transferred to Sana’a’s main prison. French authorities thanked both Omani and Saudi authorities for their subsequent intervention in negotiations.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

14 October 18: Vessel boarded at Lagos Anchorage. Two suspected criminals boarded an anchored product tanker at 0045 LT in position 6°17°2N – 3°13°87E in Lagos’ Secure Anchorage Area, Nigeria. The duty watchman was alerted to their presence and quickly raised the alarm and sounded the ships horn, both intruders subsequently disembarked the vessel. The tanker was searched and the incident was reported to local authorities who dispatch a patrol vessel. This latest incident highlights an uptick in the number of vessels being bordered while at Lagos port or anchorage. Since January 2018, 14 intrusions have been reported, a clear rise from the six reported throughout 2017.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

12 October 18: Italian Prime Ministers announces that two Italian vessels seized by Libya forces will return home. On 10 October the Libyan National Army released a statement saying that they had seized the vessels in Libyan territorial waters and brought them to Ras al-Hilal port. The two fishing vessels and their crews have now been authorised to return back to Italy.

Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 October 18: LATE Anchored LPG Tanker boarded off Kandla. Criminals bordered the LPG tanker in position 22°48°1N, 68°58°3E at Deedayal Anchorage and raided the ships stores before escaping. The theft went unnoticed by the ships crew and was only realised on a routine stowaway search at 17.30 UTC on 10 October. The incident was reported to Port Control.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 42 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Roundup – Week 41

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Michael hits the United States – At least 11 people have been killed after Hurricane Michael made landfall just north of Mexico Beach (Bay County, Florida), rapidly escalating from a Category 2 to a Category 4 storm (Saffir Simpson scale). The storm achieved wind speeds of 155mph (250kph); falling just 5mph short becoming a Category 5 storm. It is the strongest hurricane to hit the region for 25 years and caused significant damage and flooding in both Florida and Georgia. Local communication infrastructure reportedly remains significantly damaged and up to 1.1 million households and business are currently without electricity from Florida up to Virginia. The remnants of the storm are now of the east coast of the United States with windspeeds equivalent to a tropical storm. Violence in Anglophone regions during Cameroon elections – Violence in the Anglophone regions marred the 7 October election, with separatists shutting down numerous polling stations and established ‘ghost towns’ in Bamenda (Northwest region) and Beau (Southwest region). Clashes also occurred between the military and separatist movements. The Cameroonian authorities temporarily closed all of Cameroon’s ports of entry for a 24-hour period on polling day; most have now reopened with only some land borders with Nigeria remaining closed. On 8 October, Maurice Kamto, the main opposition leader, declared himself the winner; however, the result can only be released by the Constitutional Council of Cameroon. This result will be announced in the next ten days, with current incumbent, Paul Biya, likely to be named the victor. In this event, unrest should be expected throughout the country. Missile intercepted over southern Saudi Arabia – Saudi air defence intercepted a missile fired from Yemen on 10 October just before 23:00 local time. A spokesperson for the Saudi military stated that the country’s air defences had intercepted and destroyed the missile, which was targeting the city of Najran. The latest incident comes after, a missile damaged a mosque in Asir region last month. While not independently verified, Saudi officials say that some 112 citizens and residents have been killed with hundreds more wounded in 204 ballistic attacks on the kingdom. Missing Journalist increases tensions between Saudi Arabia and Turkey – Tensions have been heightened between Ankara and Riyad over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Turkish authorities have alleged that Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The authorities have said they have audio and visual evidence that there had been an assault and a struggle inside the consulate. Saudi Arabia firmly denies any involvement in the disappearance. The case has raised tensions between the Saudi Crown Prince and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan; the latter declaring himself as a champion of the Arab Spring with the crown prince positioning himself in the opposite camp. Clashes between police and protesters in Mauritania – On 8 October, protesters clashed with security forces during a protest outside the parliament building in Nouakchott. The demonstrators were protesting against slavery, demanding the release of anti-slavery campaigner and new Member of Parliament Biram Ould Dah Abeid who was jailed on 7 August for alleged hate speech. Further protests are likely in the coming days and weeks with clashes also likely.

What To Look Out for Next Week

Afghanistan district and parliamentary elections – Polling is likely to go ahead on 20 October amid tensions from the Taliban, who have vowed to block the elections. There are also severe concerns from international election observes over the transparency of the long-delayed parliamentary elections. Militant groups have been quick to launch attacks on campaigning events, on 9 October a suicide bomber in Lashkar Gah (Helmand Province) targeted the office of local candidate Mohammad Achakzai, killing him and seven others. In July an IED was detonated at a rally being held in Jalalabad (Nangarhar Province) by the only Sikh candidate in the elections, Avtar Singh Khalsa, killing 20 people. The Taliban have called the elections an American conspiracy to undermine Afghanistan. Targeted attacks on electoral candidates are likely to continue in the run-up to the polling day and travellers should avoid all political rally’s and large gatherings of people, maintaining a low profile for the duration of their time in the country. Turkey to reopen consulates in Mosul and Basra, Iraq – Following a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, and new Iraqi President, Bahram Salih, Turkey has made the decision to reopen their consulates in Mosul and Basra. Both consulates were closed over security fears, in Mosul, the consulate was closed in 2014 after the Islamic State (IS) overran the compound taking 49 Turkish diplomats’ hostage. The Basra consulate was closed earlier this summer amidst city-wide unrest over the socio-economic conditions throughout the province. Turkey has significant economic and commercial ties with Iraq as well as shared security concerns over the activity of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) along the shared border. While these will all be factors in the decision to reopen the consulates, the decision does also allude to a significant improvement in the security environment in both locations. Local elections in Cote D’Ivoire – On Saturday 13 October, local elections will be held in Côte d’Ivoire. Campaigning has been ongoing for the last couple of weeks and ended on Thursday. The vote will give all the main parties an indication ahead of the 2020 presidential election; and, as such, are likely to be highly competitive. There is a tense political atmosphere which has been fuelled by irregularities in voting preparations. Travellers in the country are advised to strictly avoid all crowds and to be aware of the potential for clashes to occur. Burundi ban on foreign relief agencies – Security forces arrested three aid workers employed by the US-based relief agency, the International Rescue Committee, for defying a recently imposed ban on foreign relief agencies operating without special permission from the Ministry of Public Security. Under new legislation, international non-government organisations must place a third of their country budget in Burundi’s central bank and implement a clear ethnic quota that favours projects supporting the ethnic Hutu communities. Given that all International NGO’s operate under the principles of impartiality, neutrality and independence such regulations are likely to be rejected by the humanitarian community, leading to further arrests of aid workers and the withdrawal of international relief operations throughout the country.

Significant Dates and Events

10-24 October – Nepal – Hindu Dashin Festival
12 October – Brazil – Lady of Aparecida
12 October – Equatorial Guinea – Independence Day.
12 October – Spain – Fiesta Nacional de Espana.
13 October – Burundi – Prince Louis Rwagasore Day
14 October – Georgia – Day of Svetitskovloba
14 October – Tanzania – Mwlimu Nyerere Day
14 October – Yemen – Liberation Day
15 October – Jamaica – National Heroes Day
15 October – Belize – Pan American Day
15 October – Tunisia – Evacuation Day
15 October – Samoa – Lotu a Tamiti Holiday
16 October – India – Maha Saptami
17 October – China – Chung Yeung Festival
17 October – Haiti – Dessalines Day
18 October – Azerbaijan – Independence Day
18 October – Zambia – National Prayer day
19 October – Bangladesh – Durga Puja
20 October – Guatemala – Revolution Day
20 October – Kenya – Mashujaa Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 41 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 40 and 41 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

28 September 18: Coalition Forces Intercept Missile Fired Towards Aden, Yemen. Local media reported the target of the attack was believed to be the coalition’s headquarters in the district of Buraigh, Aden. No casualties were reported. 01 October 18: Coalition Forces Intercept Rigged Speedboats Targeting Jazan Port, Saudi Arabia. Local media have reported two rigged speedboats were destroyed by naval coalition forces. Iranian-Houthi militias are attributed with the attempted attack. 7 October 18: Houthis Seize Fuel and Food Cargo Entering Hodeidah. Regional media reported Houthi forces have prevented ships from unloading cargo, such as fuel and food supplies. Some ships have been held in port for up to 6 months. Aid agencies have called for the UN to push for the release of the cargo and vessels. 9 October 18: Pakistan Navy Leave the Anti-Piracy Combined Task Force. The decision to leave was made after the US-led operation refused to pay for fuel for the patrolling warships as part of a previous agreement. Participating in the task force is voluntary. By distancing themselves, Pakistan will be able to conduct independent patrols from the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Aden. Pakistan’s warming relations with Iran’s military, combined with security agreements with China, may be a growing cause of concern.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

31 August 18: LATE Report – Anchored Vessel Boarded off Kribi, Cameroon. Two intruders were reported seen on the Panama-flagged general cargo ship at 2150LT, in position 2°56’14N, 9°54’27E. The crew raised the alarm and informed the Cameroon navy who deployed a patrol boat to the scene. After searching the ship, one intruder was arrested and handed over to port authorities of Kribi; the other intruder is reported to have escaped the vessel. 30 September 18: MV Boarded in Takoradi Anchorage, Ghana. Two persons boarded the vessel via the anchor chain at 0402UTC, in position 4°54’10N, 1°41’17W. The crew raised the alarm and the intruders left the vessel. No items were reported stolen. The crew and the vessel were safe. 09 October 18: MV Boarded in Takoradi Anchorage, Ghana. One person was reported to board the anchored vessel at 0315UTC, in position 4°53’0N, 1°45’0W. The person left the vessel after being spotted by the security patrol. No items were reported stolen from the vessel. Crew and vessel were reported as safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

25 September 18: MV Boarded in Tanjung Bulat, Johor, Malaysia. Two armed men with swords boarded a mobile offshore drilling rig and robbed two onboard security guards at 1930UTC in position 1°20’2N, 104°14’81E. The two guards were tied up and their personal items and communications equipment stolen. The intruders then departed the rig. The security guards were released by shore-based staff after they failed to radio in. 03 October 18: Fishing Trawler Boarded near Guimaras Island and Negros Occidental, Philippines. The vessel was underway when it was boarded by three armed perpetrators in position 10°19’48N, 122°51E at 2100LT. The men were armed with firearms; two pistols and one M16 rifle. They boarded the fishing trawler from a blue motor banca with “Juvelin” marked on its freeboard. The fishing catch and other valuable materials were stolen from the vessel. The Philippine Coast Guard was informed and two boats were deployed to patrol the area.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 40 and 41 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40

Headlines From This Week

Indonesian Earthquake and Tsunami – On 28 September an earthquake measuring 7.5 magnitude on the Richter scale, struck the central island of Sulawesi in Indonesia. The magnitude and location of the earthquake caused a tsunami and may have contributed towards two volcanic eruptions. The earthquake and subsequent tsunami decimated the city of Palu, displacing tens of thousands of people, and caused the deaths of at least 1,550 others, with at least a thousand more still missing. The rescue operations have been hindered as much of the land in the region is still too wet to manoeuvre on and many roads have been critically damaged. Mud slides and liquefaction have buried entire villages up to three meters deep in mud, as aftershocks of the earthquake measuring up to 6.3 magnitude on the Richter scale have also struck the region. International aid has been arriving but the death toll is likely to continue to climb.
Protests Build in Washington Over Allegations Against Supreme Court Nominee – Following US President Trump’s nomination of the conservative judge Brett Kavanaugh, there have been multiple allegations from women who claim that Mr Kavanaugh sexually assaulted them years ago. There has been an ongoing FBI investigation into the allegations made against Mr Kavanaugh while his application is considered. There have been several large protests around the Capitol building in Washington DC with hundreds arrested during a sit in. Other protests standing in solidarity have occurred in other cities including New York and Philadelphia. The final Senate vote is set for the 6 October.
Failed Macedonian Referendum – Macedonia (FYROM) has been embroiled in a political war with Greece since 1991 over use of the regional name “Macedonia”. An easing of tensions and a highly unpopular agreement to a permanent name change for Macedonia (FYROM) was to be ratified by a national Referendum on the 30 September. However, the turn out was only 37 percent, far below the 50-percent threshold to make the outcome binding.
State of Emergency Continues in Jamaica — The crime levels in Jamaica have reached critical levels. The country has one of the highest murder rates per capita in the world; gang and drug related crimes are an ongoing threat. On 25 September, a state of emergency was declared in Kingston, Jamaica’s capital, as the increased level of criminal activities has exceeded the capacity of law enforcement. Prime Minister Holness stated that enhanced security measures are due to end on the 9 October.
New NAFTA Deal Struck Between US, Canada, and Mexico – Following months of negotiations, sanctions, and increasing tensions, on 1 October the United States, Canada, and Mexico struck a new NAFTA deal (North American Free Trade Agreement). This new deal or NAFTA 2.0 has a number of changes and updates from the old deal which affects multiple areas of trade including; labour, environmental standards, intellectual property protections, and new digital trade legislation. If the deal is approved, it is likely to encourage President Trump that his aggressive trade practises work.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Brazilian Elections – On 7 October Brazil is holding a multitude of elections for regional and central government, including president. The presidential election has been unpredictable and sometimes violent with the frontrunner stabbed during a rally. Corruption and the economy are at the heart of the issues for this election. The divisive right-wing frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro is leading the polls, with the left-wing candidate Fernando Haddad coming in second. Bolsonaro has caused controversy throughout the campaign and has made several discriminatory comments on race, gender, and sexual orientation, as well as a number of remarks expressing support for the country’s former military government. If no candidate wins a majority, then the two leading candidates will head to a runoff vote which is expected to take place on the 28 October.
Cameroon Presidential Election – Also on 7 October, eight of Cameroon’s ten regions will head to the polls for a presidential election that may end the dynasty of incumbent Paul Biya. President Biya has been in power since 1982 and was prime minister for seven years before that. Cameroon faces security issues in multiple regions. Boko Haram in the north, rebel incursions from the east, and separatists in the south-western English-speaking regions. The separatists have vowed violence if the election is held in their territory, while government have confirmed the election will go ahead in the regions. Violence on election day is likely in contested territories.
National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan) – The National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan), also referred to as Double Tenth Day is the national day of Taiwan. This day marks the start of the Wuchang Uprising of 10 October 1911. The revolt was a turning point for China as it saw the collapse of the Ching (Qing) Dynasty that had been in place since 1644. The revolt led to the founding of the Republic of China, until it lost mainland China in 1949. The day is celebrated by large parades, rallies, and other cultural events. The city is often illuminated with lanterns and fireworks.
Bosnia-Herzegovina Elections – On 7 October, Bosnia-Herzegovina will hold elections for a plethora of ethno-political establishments which helped to end the 1992-95 war but now make for an exceptionally complicated electoral system. On election day, 3.5 million voters will choose; a national parliament, three members of the national presidency, the parliaments of the country’s two political major entities the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) and the predominantly Bosniak and Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – and then 11 other regional assemblies. The over complicated devolution of the government makes any reforms almost impossible, as getting all different assemblies to agree is highly unlikely. In the past, external powers including the EU and UK, tried to help liberalise an economy hobbled by its own political complexity. However, there are now several internal regional leaders who have open backing from Russia, meaning that further external meddling is likely.

Significant Dates and Events

05 October – Portugal – Republic Day
05 October – Cambodia – Teacher’s march in Phnom Penh
06 October – Latvia – Legislative elections
06 October – South Korea – Woman’s Rally in Seoul
06-07 October – Egypt – Armed Forces Day
06 October – Malaysia – Birthday of the Governor of Sabah
07 October – Brazil – General election
07 October – Cameroon – Presidential election
08 October – Spain – New Anti-Pollution protocol in Madrid
08 October – Bahamas – National Heroes Day
08 October – Croatia – Independence Day
08 October – Cambodia – Ancestors Day
08 October – Ecuador – Independence of Guayaquil
09 October – Uganda – Independence Day
10 October – Fiji – Independence Day
10 October – Taiwan – Double Tenth Day
10 October – Cuba – Independence Day
10 October – Curacao – Curacao Day
10 October – North Korea – Party Foundation Day
10-24 October – Nepal – Hindu Dashin Festival
11 October – Macedonia – Revolution Day
12 October – Brazil – Lady of Aparecida
12 October – Equatorial Guinea – Independence Day.
12 October – Spain – Fiesta Nacional de Espana.
13 October – Burundi – Prince Louis Rwagasore Day
14 October – Georgia – Day of Svetitskovloba
14 October – Tanzania – Mwlimu Nyerere Day
14 October – Yemen – Liberation Day
15 October – Jamaica – National Heroes Day
15 October – Belize – Pan American Day
15 October – Tunisia – Evacuation Day
15 October – Samoa – Lotu a Tamiti Holiday

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.