GLOBAL HEADLINES

Nigeria: Nationwide – Severe Political Risk Elections delayed until 23 February after electoral commission unable to get materials to polling stations. The general elections that were scheduled in Nigeria on 16 February to elect the President and the National Assembly were delayed until the 23 February. The initial vote was, quite dramatically, rescheduled in a dramatic overnight press conference a mere five hours prior to the vote. The last-minute decision surprised the country, many Nigerians had been queuing since the day before or had travelled considerable distances to cast their votes. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimated that the delay has cost the economy 1.5bn USD. The Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) gave several reasons for the delay. The main issues being logistical delays, bad weather and difficulty delivering ballot papers and attempted sabotage. Both main parties, the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main challenger, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have condemned the delay. The APC has alleged that the PDP wanted to halt the moment of President Muhammadu Buhari. The PDP has otherwise stated that the Inec had delayed the election to create “the space to perfect their rigging plans”; in favour of the president. The delay is likely to have an impact on voter turnout and will most likely favour the incumbent president due to the increase in voter apathy in most areas except those with historically high turnouts; historic President Muhammadu Buhari strongholds. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel into Nigeria until after the elections due to the threat of protests which could turn violent and uncertainty over the outcome. Travellers already in country should limit non-essential movements and avoid all large gatherings and protests. Be aware that unrest and violence can continue for weeks after the day of the vote; especially should allegations of vote rigging, or fraud, occur. Adhere to all advice issued by the authorities. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. United Kingdom: London – Low Political Risk Eleven MPs have split from their parties and banded together in a so-called Independent Group. A number of British parliamentary members have defected from the Labour and Conservative parties. The move has been made as a result of a number of differences; namely alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour party and the handling of Brexit by both parties. The group was founded by Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and Chuka Umunna, who simultaneously announced their resignations from the Labour Party on 18 February. The group’s key message is that “Politics is broken. Let’s change it”. They have stated that they aim to pursue evidence-led policies, rather than those led by ideology, with the group being tolerant of differing opinions. Specific values include; a social market economy, freedom of the press, environmentalism, devolution, subsidiarity and, vitally, their opposition to Brexit. All eleven MPs support a second referendum on the EU. The split has not yet resulted in any changes by the governing Conservatives or Labour party; however, there have been reports of numerous ministers in both parties also considering defecting. On 22 February, Ian Austin announced his decision to quit the party, though he has not joined the Independent group. ADVICE: The defections demonstrate the political instability facing Britain at the moment in the run-up to Brexit, be aware that protests are likely as the date nears or depending on the decisions made by party leaders. A by those opposed and for Brexit occurred on 14 February resulting in disruption around Westminster. Haiti: Nationwide – High Civil Unrest Risk While protests start to halt; food and water shortages remain severe. Anti-government protests that have taken place nationwide since 7 February, blockading the country and all main urban centres. Several clashes between demonstrator and security forces, as well as widespread crime and looting, have forced all business activities to cease and caused severe disruption in transportation, emergency and medical services and schools. While the protests have halted in most of the country, allowing business to partially reopen, critical shortages in key resources such as water, food and fuel remain severe and could trigger new violent outbursts and crime. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor the latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Venezuela: Nationwide – Sever Political Risk Maduro orders border closure with Brazil and limits access from Colombia to prevent foreign aid. The country-wide crisis continues in Venezuela, with contested President Nicholas Maduro ordering the closure of the border with Brazil and reportedly considering the same course of action with Colombia. The decision spanned from the declaration of the interim President and opposition leader Juan Guaido to accept international foreign aid to tackle the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The Brazilian and Colombia are among the countries that recognise Guaido as interim President and are key in the facilitation of international aid, mainly coming from the US, reaching the Venezuelan citizens. Elected President Maduro has already closed maritime borders with all Caribbean countries where international aid was stored, calling the initiative an attempt from Washington to meddle in Venezuelan national affairs in order to gain access to its oil reserves, and denying the existence of a humanitarian crisis in the first place. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Mali: Timbuktu – Severe Military and Terrorism Risk France says it has killed senior al Qaeda commander in the Sahel. The French government has announced that it has killed a “senior commander of Al Qaeda” on 22 February. Yahya Abou El Hamame was reportedly killed during an operation in Mali. The Algerian, who was understood to be second in command of Nusrat al-Islam, officially known as Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM), a branch of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), was allegedly responsible for kidnapping a number of Westerners in North and West Africa. El Hamame was part of a younger generation of senior AQIM figures. Unlike many other senior commanders, he was not trained in the Afghan jihadist camps. Despite this, he is understood to have risen rapidly in AQIM’s top ranks. El Hamame was reported to have been an able commander and administrator. He was also believed to have excellent knowledge of the southern stretches of the Sahel around northern Mali – a factor that analysts believe led to his promotion after his predecessor, Abou Zeid, was killed by French forces. El Hamame is also believed to have carried out the execution of French engineer, Michel Germaneau, who was kidnapped in northern Niger. ADVICE: Jihadist militancy is common in northern Mali and kidnappings of both locals and westerns often occurs. Travellers are not advised to travel in the region unless adequate security measures are taken; even then, travel should only be conducted in business essential.

GLOBAL FORECASTS

Europe: Brussels – Low Political Risk Talks continue ahead of potential vote in UK parliament on 26-27 February. British Prime Minister Theresa May is continuing to negotiate with the European Union over the terms of Britain’s departure from the union which is due to occur in a little over a month’s time. Both sides have been positive about the talks despite no tangible evidence of progress being made. An added dimension to the debate is the defection of MPs from both the Conservatives and Labour. Should the defections continue the Conservatives government may lose their ability to pass legislation while the Labour opposition may be forced to change its policy on the country leaving the EU. In addition to the ongoing talks, Britain has announced that trade deals with Japan and Turkey will not be ready by the time that Britain exits the European Union. Therefore, on 22 February, the country has only been able to finalise “continuity agreements” with seven of the 69 countries and regions with which the EU has trade deals. ADVICE: Travellers and businesses should continue to monitor the ongoing discussions in Brussels and the debate in the British Parliament. The situation could change rapidly in the coming weeks with the potential of a disruptive no deal exit still a possibility. Vietnam: Hanoi – Low Political Risk North Korea-United States Summit to be held on 27 February. Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un are set to meet for a second round of the North Korea-US summits in Hanoi on 27 February. Among the topics to be discussed, are the establishment of a roadmap for the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, and the signing of an armistice that would put an end to the war between the two nations. A senior American official visited Pyongyang earlier this month to arrange details ahead of the nuclear summit. During the first historical Summit, held in Singapore in June last year and representing the first ever meeting between leaders of the two states, a joint statement was released agreeing on commitments towards a denuclearised Korean Peninsula and the commitment towards the development of peaceful relations. ADVICE: Travellers visiting Hanoi should exercise caution and anticipate heightened security around the area hosting the event, possible disruption in main roads and transportation, as well as possible demonstration in support or against the summit. Algeria: Algiers – High Civil Unrest Risk Demonstrations planned to denounce President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s candidacy in the upcoming elections. Demonstrations are being held and are expected to be held in the Algerian capital on 22 and 24 February to denounce the candidacy of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the 18 April elections. On 22 February, there was a significant deployment of security personnel across the country; especially in Algiers. On the 22 February protests which are currently underway at the time of writing, the authorities have reportedly fired tear gas outside the presidential palace. There have also been reports of internet outages; however, these have not been confirmed. The incumbent president has announced, on 10 February, that he would seek a fifth term. The announcement came after four parties announced that they would support him (the National Liberation Front (FLN), the National Rally for Democracy, the Rally for Hope for Algeria and the Algerian Popular Movement). The president has rarely been seen in public since suffering from a stroke in 2013 with critics saying his health limits his ability to carry out his duties. A large protest also occurred on the outskirts of Khenchela – located some 500km southeast of capital Algiers – on 19 February after the mayor (a member of the president’s ruling FLN) stated that he would bar presidential hopeful Rachid Nekkaz from meeting his supporters outside the town hall. ADVICE: Travellers in country should avoid all gatherings and vacate any areas that experience unrest. Adhere to the instructions issued by the authorities at all time. Monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest details regarding unrest in the region. Guam: Nationwide – Moderate Political Risk Typhoon Wutip is set to strengthen and may impact Guam, Marina Islands and Palau Islands. Tropical Storm Wutip has strengthened into a typhoon on 21 February, further strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours. The island of Weno reported nearly 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall on 20 February as Wutip impacted the region. The islands of eastern Yap State were also impacted on Friday, 22 February, and is expected to continue into Saturday as the storm-system turns northward. It is unclear exactly where the storm will impact; with two scenarios possible. The first being that Wutip could pass near or over Guam, or the storm could track farther west between Guam and Colonia in Micronesia, with a lesser impact being recorded on both the islands. However, even in the event that no islands were directly impacted, gusty winds and downpours can result in localised flooding and power outages. ADVICE: Monitor weather and Solace Secure updates for updated information on the storm if in country and be prepared for travel.

SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
23 Feb	Nigeria	Election (delayed)	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
24 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
25 Feb	Kuwait	National Day	LOW
25 Feb	British Virgin Islands	General elections	NEGLIGIBLE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
28 Feb	Kuwait	Liberation Day	LOW
28 Feb	Taiwan	228 Memorial Day	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

GLOBAL HEADLINES

France: Nationwide – Clashes reported at Yellow Vest protests nationwide, 9-10 February. After the National Assembly passed a controversial “anti-hooligan law” that allows police to ban demonstrations, on 9-10 February, a “Yellow Vest” protest was held. Violent clashes were reported along the Champs Elysees and police fired tear gas at protesters. Violence was also reported in front of the National Assembly building. At least 39 people were arrested, and several were injured. Protests were also reported in Toulouse, Marseille, Montpellier and Lyon. ADVICE: Yellow Vest protests are known to turn violent with little notice. Travellers are advised to avoid all Yellow Vets demonstrations and public gatherings. Travellers are advised to monitor local media for situational updates on Yellow Vest (Gilet Jaunes) protests. Further related demonstrations are anticipated over the next weeks. Violence and unrest cannot be ruled out. Egypt: Cairo – Parliament votes to approve draft constitutional changes to allow President Sisi to remain in power for another 12 years The Egyptian parliament has overwhelmingly voted to approve draft constitutional changes that could extend President Abdul al-Sisi’s presidency to 2034. Sisi is currently due to step down in 2022 after his second four-year term; however, 485 of 596 lawmakers voted on 14 February to lengthen presidential terms to six years as well as allowing Sisi to serve another two. Several Egyptian human rights groups have spoken out against the decision. The announcement is unlikely to provoke significant disorder as the Egyptian security forces maintain a firm grip over any potential unrest in country. However, there is a possibility for both demonstrations, outbursts in violence and for terror attacks. A bomb attack was carried out on 15 February with an IED detonating near Giza’s Al-Istiqamah Mosque while the authorities were attempting to diffuse the device. A second IED was successfully diffused near Al-Nahda Square. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to monitor for unrest and be aware of the possibility for further terror attacks. United Kingdom: London – Two injured in acid attack in central London, 12 February. The UK has seen a dramatic increase in acid attacks, with London being a major target area. According to Acid Survivors Trust International (ASTI), there is an average of two acids attacks per day across the country. The latest one occurred on 12 February. During afternoon hours local time, police were called to Argyle Street, Near King’s Cross Station to reports of an altercation between two groups. Officers reported that one group left the location by the time they arrived, however, two men were later found nearby with facial injuries caused by a corrosive substance. No arrests have yet been made. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to be aware of the common occurrence of acid attacks in London. Travellers should report any suspicious behaviour to the authorities and maintain situational awareness at all times. Belgium:  Nationwide – National strike on 13 February brings the country to a standstill A strike organised by air traffic controllers and baggage handlers triggered major disruptions at airports nationwide, notably in Brussels on 13 February. Unionised public-sector workers joined the strike in support of pay demands. Brussel Airlines cancelled 222 flights and reportedly more than 16,000 passengers were affected. Antwerp and Charleroi airports were closed. Several international airlines such as British Airways and Lufthansa, cancelled or rescheduled their flights ahead of the anticipated disruption. The 24hr strike also affected other means of transportation such as trains, buses and trams. Moreover, the air traffic control agency, Skeyes, ordered the shutdown of the national airspace due to safety concerns triggered by staffing uncertainties. ADVICE: The majority of delays have now cleared; however, travellers should contact their airline directly for further information. India: Jammu and Kashmir State – An IED explosion has left almost 50 soldiers dead in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir State Banned terrorist organisation, allegedly backed by Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) has claimed responsibility for the attack in the Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district on Thursday, 14 February. The attack has left 46 soldiers dead and is the deadliest single attack on Indian troops in the region in decades. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of failing to act against the militant group and has stated that it will ensure the “complete isolation” of Pakistan as a result. India also accused that Pakistan of harbouring Jaish-e-Mohammad, the group behind the attack. It has called for global sanctions against the group and for its leader, Masood Azhar, to be listed as a terrorist by the UN security council. However, past attempts at doing so have repeatedly been blocked by China; an ally of Pakistan.

GLOBAL FORECAST

Nigeria: Nationwide – Elections set to take place on 16 February amid heightened security. General elections are scheduled in Nigeria on 16 February to elect the President and the National Assembly. The latest polling suggests that current President, Muhammadu Buhari of the APC (All Progressives Congress), is likely to lose to the opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP (People’s Democratic Party). Security has already been heightened across Nigeria in the run up to the elections, with political demonstrations in major cities, including; Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt, becoming increasingly frequent that have the potential to turn violent. On 10 February, two offices of Nigeria’s Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) were burnt down; however, it is unclear who was responsible. Additionally, following the suspension of the country’s Chief Justice, there are concerns over the potential for voting irregularities. Any indication of such would almost certainly result in widespread unrest and violence, as well as condemnation from the international community. There has also been a recent upsurge in attacks by Boko Haram in Nigeria’s north-east, while the US State Department has reported an increased propaganda campaign by the terrorist group. Both Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) have issued threats stating that they intend to carry out attacks on various targets, including the Nigerian security forces, country infrastructure and on busy urban centres frequented by foreigners’ travellers. ADVICE: Defer all non-essential travel into Nigeria until after the elections have been concluded due to the threat of protests which could turn violent and uncertainty over the outcome. Travellers already in country should limit non-essential movements and avoid all large gatherings and protests. Adhere to all advice issued by the authorities. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Bangladesh: Dhaka – Religious event in Tongi, outskirts of Dhaka, 15-18 February. Bangladesh is set to host Bishwa Ijtema, the world’s second-largest Muslim gathering, between 15 – 18 February. The event will be centralised along the banks of the Turag River near Tongi, on the outskirts of Dhaka. Although the gathering is generally peaceful, it is predicted that some five million attendees will flood into Dhaka and surrounding areas, which will inevitably hinder of security and travel to some extent. Moreover, there has been confrontations between two factions of Tabligh Jamaat in the build-up to this year’s festival – with clashes taking place in December and resulting in at least one death and more than 200 injured. The State Minister for Religious Affairs, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, is said to have secured a peaceful conclusion after talks with the two feuding Tabligh Jamaat factions – but this does eliminate all concerns regarding the event. ADVICE:  Travellers planning to attend the festival should exercise caution and remain vigilant. Travel in and around the area will be severely impacted and therefore travellers will need to allow additional time for movements or plan alternative routes. Haiti: Nationwide – US embassy evacuates non-emergency staff as unrest impacts country; further unrest likely The US State Department has issued a travel warning on Thursday ordering all non-emergency personnel and their families out of the country. The warning comes as protests in Port-au-Prince have turned violent this week; at least two people were killed and dozens more injured, some severely, as police and anti-government protesters clashed. Unrest has been ongoing for months in the Caribbean country’s capital as demonstrators are demanding to know the whereabouts of some $4 billion that was supposed to have gone to social development. Tourists and aid workers have reportedly been trapped in the country by the unrest, with the protests also impacting supplies of food, fuel and drinking water. Further unrest is likely over the weekend. ADVICE: All non-essential travel to the country should be deferred for at least the next week. If currently in-country, consider departing as well as limiting all travel to only essential movements. Zimbabwe: Nationwide – Robert Mugabe National Youth Day, 21 February. Zimbabwe is set to celebrate its second Robert Mugabe National Youth Day on 21 February. The public holiday falls on the former President’s birthday and was declared to honour his role in empowering Zimbabwe’s youth. Celebrations on this date are not new and during Mugabe’s rule, it was marked with extravagance and public gatherings across the country. However, the holiday is also highly controversial due to the nature of the decades-long Mugabe rule. Social media and news sources indicate that millions of Zimbabweans are disappointed and angry at the establishment of the public holiday due to Mugabe’s mismanagement of the economy and rampant corruption allegations. Advice: Travellers are advised to avoid large gatherings or protests as they have the potential to turn violent or be suppressed with force by security forces. Spain: Nationwide – Prime minister calls for snap elections on 28 April following rejection of country’s budget Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has called for a snap general election to be held on the 28 April. The call comes after Catalan secessionists joined right-wing parties in rejecting the government’s national budget. The election is set to be the third in less than four years in the country and it was seen as an inevitability after the government’s budget was defeated by 191 to 158. The prime minister’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party is currently ahead in the polls and it is likely that they will use the threat of an incoming right-leaning government as a rallying cry to get voters to the ballot box. Advice: Be aware that political campaigning and politically motivated gatherings are likely in the run-up to the election and may result in disruption.

SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
15 Feb	India	Kumbh Mela	LOW
15 Feb	Afghanistan	Liberation Day	HIGH
15 Feb	Iran	Martyrdom of Imam Reza	HIGH
15 Feb	Serbia	Statehood Day	LOW
16-19 Feb	Nice	Carnival de Nice	LOW
16-19 Feb	Italy	Venice Carnival	LOW
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
18 Feb	Guinea-Bissau	Election campaign	MODERATE
18 Feb	Gambia	Independence Day	MODERATE
18 Feb	Nepal	National Democracy Day	LOW
18 Feb	Puerto Rico	Presidents Day	LOW
19 Feb	Asian Calendar	Lantern Festival	LOW
19 Feb	Cambodia	Buddha Day	LOW
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

Americas

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8 February: Piracy negatively affecting illegal trade between South America and Trinidad Contraband smugglers are seeing a negative impact on their ability to trade between South America and Trinidad as a result of the rise of piracy off the Venezuelan coast. While the trade of narcotics appears to be flourishing, trade in tropical birds, such as bullfinches, par­rots and macaws have all dropped; resulting in shortages in Trinidad and the wider region. Additionally, other illegally imported animals, such as monkeys and even cattle have all but stopped.

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Gulf of Guinea

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9 February: Robber armed with a knife boarded a product tanker in Port of Monrovia Duty crew on routine rounds onboard a berthed product tanker noticed a robber armed with a knife at 0340 UTC in position 06:21.1N – 010:47.8W, Port of Monrovia, Liberia. As a result, the vessels alarm was sounded, resulting in the robber escaping. On searching the vessel, ships stores were reported stolen. Incident was reported to a local agent and port control.

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Indian Ocean

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3 February: Crew noticed a boat under forecastle of a product tanker LATE Report | Chief officer on routine rounds onboard berthed Singapore-flagged product tanker noticed a boat under the forecastle and notified the other deck crew at 1630 UTC in position 23:02.02N – 070:13.39E, Oil Jetty No4, Kandla Port, India. Seeing the alerted crew, the boat moved away. On inspection, it was noticed that a store room had been broken into but nothing reported stolen. Port authorities notified.

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Asia

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5 February: Ship property stolen at anchor in Belawan Anchorage Duty crew on routine rounds onboard anchored Singapore-flagged tanker noticed a robber escaping via the hawse pipe and raised the alarm at 2205 UTC in position 03:55.40N – 098:40E, Belawan Anchorage, Indonesia. Crew mustered and on searching the vessel ships properties reported missing. 10 February: Robbery reported on an anchored bulk carrier in Caofeidian Anchorage, China Duty officer onboard anchored Singapore-flagged bulk carrier noticed from the bridge wing a hose connected from an opened DO tank manhole to a small unlit barge alongside the ship at 1840 UTC in position 38:52.50N – 118:42.60E. The vessel crew raised the alarm, and duty AB were instructed to investigate. Hearing the alarm, the duty officer noticed a robber lowering the hose and escaping in the barge. On sounding the tank, it was reported that DO had been stolen. Incident reported to VTS Caofeidian. The Coastguard are now investigating.

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A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week

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Second incident in Singapore Strait in a week after vessel sinks near Pedra Branca A Dominica-flagged supply vessel has capsized and sunk in Singapore territorial waters near Pedra Branca on 14 February. At around 07:15 local time the vessel, Ocean Cooper 2 capsized and sank whilst in the westbound lane of the traffic separation scheme. The incident occurred around 3 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, within Singapore territorial waters in the Singapore Strait. The vessel’s three Indonesian crew members were rescued by a nearby accompanying supply vessel, the Jolly Rachel, and are all safe. Additionally, no injuries or oil pollution were reported in the area. The authorities will deploy a vessel to conduct a hydrographic survey of the wreck and will investigate the incident. Traffic in the Singapore Strait remains unaffected. The incident comes less than a week after two vessels collided in Singapore territorial waters off Tuas on 9 February. In that incident, Greek-flagged Pireas and a Malaysian buoy-laying vessel Polaris collided while the Pireas was making its from Singapore to Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia. There were no reported injuries in the incident and the Pireas sustained no damage. Due to these factors, the collision incident was not considered a very serious marine casualty incident under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Marine Casualty Investigation Code. As such the Pireas was allowed to proceed with its journey to Tanjung Pelepas. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) is investigating. During a debate at UN, Russian ambassador proposes international piracy mechanism backed by the UN The Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia, has proposed to create an international, UN-backed, interstate coordinating mechanism to combat piracy at sea. The Ambassador believes that the creation of such a structure would help facilitate the plethora of challenges that countries now face globally. Nebenzia stated that “It is necessary to create under the aegis of the UN a universal and interstate coordinating mechanism, independent of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, which would be dedicated to combating piracy and other types of maritime crime.” The ambassador also stated that Russia is “very concerned” about the recent cases of assaults on merchant ships and kidnappings of their crews. The comments are also potent as On January 2, 2019, pirates attacked the freighter MSC Mandy off the coast of Benin, kidnapping six Russian sailors, including the ship’s captain. Indeed, in its annual report, the International Maritime Bureau (IMO) noted that in 2018 pirates attacked vessels at sea 201 times, 21 more than in the previous year. The Gulf of Guinea saw the majority of these attacks. However, there has also been an increase in incidents in the Americas and robberies at ports across Asia. The ambassador’s comments do hold water, international cooperation has been extremely successful off the coast of Somalia and in the wider ocean. The international naval task forces that have patrolled the region have been successful in deterring pirate activity as well as responding to the incident. Additionally, most importantly, BMP5 (5th edition of the piracy-specific Best Management Practice) and the Global Counter Piracy Guidance means that vessels transiting these routes are equipped with the means to deter and defend themselves. These measures, especially including the inclusion of onboard security, have been extremely successful at stopping pirate attacks. Indeed a number of recent incidents have resulted in pirates aborting attacks after they encounter resistance. The Singapore-flagged vessel that was seized off coast off Cameroon has been released In a statement on 6 February, Singapore-based firm Eastern Pacific Shipping confirmed that the Barents Sea had been released. Vessel, which also carries the Singapore flag departed the port of Limbe in Cameroon with all 26 crew on 5 February. Eastern Pacific Shipping alleged, when the vessel was seized by armed local militiamen, that Mr Jules François Famawa, owner of a local charterer, DSC Marine, had “used illegitimate means to seize the vessel for the purpose of holding its owners to ransom in clear violation of Cameroonian and international law”. It is understood that the  Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, the Republic of Singapore Navy, the various embassies representing the ship’s crew – which includes Indian, Chinese and Turkish nationals – and the Cameroonian authorities were all involved in negotiating the release of the vessel and the crew.

Bahrain: Nationwide – Possibility of protest action on anniversary of 2011 unrest on 14 February The upcoming anniversary heightens the risk posed to travellers as security forces are expected to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards anti-government protests held on the day. “Preventative” arrests are highly likely prior to 14 February and aggressive dispersal measures will be in place to prevent protests from spreading beyond restricted areas and to stop the organisation of mass protests, particularly in Manama. ADVICE: Employ a heightened level of vigilance in the coming week and adhere to all advice issued by security personnel. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Venezuela: Colombian Border – The country’s military has blocked the border crossing with Colombia to halt the arrival of international aid The Venezuelan military has blocked the Tienditas bridge in response to the arrival of US aid trucks. President Maduro has rejected letting the aid into the country, while opposition leader Juan Guaido, who has declared himself interim president, has warned many Venezuelans are in danger of dying without international aid. ADVICE:  All non-essential travel to the country continues to be advised against. Be aware that the situation remains tense and could escalate with little or no warning. Iran: Nationwide – Iranians are set to celebrate the anniversary of the country’s revolution in 1979 Iran is set to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution’s victory on Monday, 11 February. The celebration comes amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, a prolonged economic downturn and an attack on a military base in the southeast of the country. On February 11, Tehran has organised a march to Tehran’s Azadi (freedom) Square in the capital to mark the day the monarchy was officially toppled 10 days after the triumphant return from exile of the revolution’s leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The event is likely to take place under a high level of security, especially after the attack on a Revolutionary Guard military base in Basij. Despite the celebrations, the country faces acute economic challenges as it struggles with a mix of domestic hardships and US sanctions. The country’s currency, the Rial, has sharply devalued against the dollar, driving up prices. While the re-introduction of sanctions has blocked foreign investment and limited oil sales. Tehran has warned against those who threaten the country from within and called for national unity. In addition to these challenges, the country is also dealing with an environmental crisis, brought on by a mix of air pollution, soil erosion, drought and desertification. ADVICE: Travellers in-country are advised to monitor for possible protest action and monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest updates. If driving, be aware that some roads may become blocked by protesters and/or celebratory rallies. Lebanon: Nationwide – Heightened security is being employed ahead of two significant anniversaries in country Security will be high in Beirut ahead of the anniversaries of the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Imad Moughniyeh on 12 February, and the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on 14 February. While commemorative events on 12 February tend to be confined to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut, there is a higher security risk associated with the annual commemoration of the assassination of Rafik Hariri in the Downtown area. Despite the formation of a new government that put an end to nearly nine months of political deadlock, tensions remain high, with the risk that those could manifest next week. Any major security incident during or against those events, especially on 14 February, would likely derail the achievements thus far. Advice: Travellers are advised to employ a heightened level of caution in the country over the course of the anniversaries. Read our Travel Advisory for more information US: Washington – President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union speech to a joint session of Congress President Trump finally made is State of the Union speech; the president used his speech to extend an olive branch to Democrats despite recent months of accusing them of obstructing the border wall with Mexico. The president also made a case for a state of emergency on the borders of the country. Trump also, in a mirror to President Nixon’s final State of the Union speech, called for an end of the investigation into his presidency. ADVICE: Protest are uncommon in the United States; however, large rallies do occur on occasion over gun violence, women’s rights and other issues; monitor media reports for further information. Cameroon: Yaoundé – US to withdraw military support from Cameroon government over current Anglophone crisis Washington has withdrawn support for the Yaoundé government over the ongoing Anglophone crisis in Cameroon. As a result, the US has halted its C-130 aircraft training program, as well as halting the deliveries of four defender boats, nine armoured vehicles and an upgrade of an ageing Cessna aircraft for Cameroon’s rapid intervention battalion. Furthermore, the United States had withdrawn its offer for Cameroon to be part of the State Partnership Program, a military cooperation program. ADVICE: The situation in the country remains adverse, especially in the anglophone regions to the northwest and southwest of the country. Only essential travel to these regions should be carried out. France/Italy: Rome – Paris has withdrawn its ambassador to Italy for consultations after a series of provocations by the Italian government The French foreign ministry said that it had recalled its ambassador to Rome for consultations after a series of “provocations” by Italy’s populist government. In a statement, the ministry said, “for several months France has been the subject of repeated accusations, unfounded attacks and outlandish claims.” Tensions have been high between the two countries since the election of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and far-right League party came to power in June in a coalition government. ADVICE: The latest political spat is unlikely to cause much changes in the two countries’ relations. However, the foreign government support for Yellow Vest protesters shows the strength and enduring power of the movement. Further protests should be expected in the coming weeks. Afghanistan: Kabul – After progress in peace talks, the US has now stated its intentions to withdraw from Afghanistan The Taliban have now sat down for talks with Americans in Qatar and with senior members of the Afghan elite in Moscow. However, while these talks are ongoing, the US president Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants US troops to withdraw from the country and from America’s longest war. While the progress of the talks has been positive, the talk of the United States intention to leave as long as a deal can be made gives a sense of unease. When a superpower signals its desperation to get out of a conflict, the subsequent negotiations are designed only to provide diplomatic cover. The Taliban will be aware of this, they will, therefore, make more promises that they do not intend to keep simply to help expedite the US troop departure; indeed, they have offered similar assurances in the past. The Taliban are calling for a withdrawal of foreign troops and an instalment of an interim government. Both of which would allow them to wait for the last US troops to leave before potentially disregarding any agreements and attempting to retake Kabul and the majority of the country; as they did in 1996. ADVICE: The situation in Afghanistan remains unstable. Should talks collapse, there may be an increase in attacks in the country; especially in Kabul.

SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
10 Feb	Switzerland	Referendum	NEGLIGIBLE
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

Venezuela: Nationwide – Unrest continues across country as political uncertainty in country Protests continue to impact Venezuela as the political situation remains volatile and unchanged following violent unrest that occurred in Caracas and other urban centres on the anniversary of the 1958 civilian-military movement to dispose of the military junta. Over the past week, numerous governments have announced support for the opposition leader, and the self-declared president, Juan Guaido; including the majority of South America, the United States and Australia. While European countries have been slightly more cautious in their support, the European Union has called on de facto President Nicolas Maduro to call for immediate elections; a move he has refused. Maduro currently enjoys less widespread international support; however, notably, China and Russia continue to support him. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Europe: Brussels – The EU has agreed visa-free travel for UK citizens amidst a dispute over Gibraltar as Brexit future remains unclear The EU has agreed to visa-free travel for all UK citizens, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. UK travellers will be able to visit the Schengen area for short stay visits (maximum 90 days in any 180 days) without a visa. This measure is considered an act of reciprocity, as Britain had already confirmed EU citizens travelling to the UK for short stays would not require a visa. However, as with much of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, parts of the regulation announcement have been met with criticism by UK officials over the description of Gibraltar as a “colony”. The terminology was reportedly an insertion at the request of Spain, which holds a long-standing sovereignty claim to the peninsula. Additionally, British politicians have had their February recess cancelled as the next steps to the British exit from the European Union remain unclear. It is likely that more information about what Britain will do will be released in the coming week following meetings amongst politicians on both sides of the channel. ADVICE:  Travellers are advised to continue monitoring the Brexit situation as parliament in the United Kingdom remains far off from agreeing the deal that the British government agreed with Brussels and it remains unclear what exact implications a no-deal Brexit would have. France: Nationwide – Further Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) protests planned nationwide Further Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) protesters have announced their intention to hold demonstrations across France on Saturday 2 February. Paris, Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Rouen, Strasbourg, Toulouse and Valence. The protests come as the French government plans to introduce measures to ban masks at rallies in an effort to tackle unrest. The French government has come under scrutiny for these measures and the use of “offensive” weapons. Groups have recently been stating that the French police’s brutality cannot be denied after a number of injuries. France’s legal advisory body, the council of state, examined an urgent request by the French Human Rights League and the CGT trade union to ban police from using a form of rubber-bullet launcher in which ball-shaped projectiles are shot out of specialised handheld launchers. France’s rights groups have long warned they are dangerous and carry “disproportionate risk”. ADVICE: Travellers in-country are advised to avoid all protests and monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest updates. If driving, be aware that some roads may become blocked by protesters.

GLOBAL HEADLINES • 1 – 8 February 2019

US: Nationwide – Freezing temperatures result in snowfall across large parts of country; at least 12 deaths have been reported Extremely cold temperature and heavy snowstorms have resulted in significant disruption across the United States. The Midwest and Northeast have seen the worst of the adverse weather. At least eight people have been killed as a result so the so-called “polar-vortex”. Significant flight delays have been reported at numerous airports; with Chicago-area airports seeing some of the worst of the disruption. Around 1600 flight cancellations were reported at O’Hare International Airport and Midway International Airport. Some temperatures have been reported as low as -40C (-40F) with windchill and rail workers have resorted to setting railway junctions on fire to keep trains running in the Chicago area. Weather forecasters have warned that there is further bad weather to come. The storm system is likely to move south west toward the coast in coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in the United States are advised to monitor weather reports and ensure that you wear adequate clothing when outdoors or driving. be aware that transport delays and cancellations are extremely likely. Ensure flights are operating and refrain from non-essential travel. Lebanon: Beirut – Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri has finally managed to form a new government after all factions agree a deal Lebanese factions have agreed to form a new government after what has been nine-month pf political wrangling. The “government of national unity’s” first challenge will be to revive the country’s economy and look to cut national debt; which currently stands at 150 percent of GDP. The cabinet, which consists of 30 members, includes four women – which is a first for Lebanon. Hezbollah were awarded two seats in the cabinet and their Sunni allies received one. Additionally, most likely as a bargaining chip, Hezbollah also chose the health minister; however, he is not a member of the Shia Islamist party/militant group. Mr Hariri, only 48 years old, is now a veteran of Lebanese politics; his father was killed by a bomb allegedly planted by men linked to Hezbollah. Lebanon has long had a power-sharing political system between the different religious denominations. The number of seats in parliament is split between Christians and Muslims. Cabinet members must also present this balanced nature with the president, prime minister and speaker of the parliament each come from a specific religious background. ADVICE: While the announcement of the new government ends months of uncertainty, be aware that protests are still possible. This is especially true should the new government find itself unable to tackle the current countries crisis. Pakistan: Islamabad – Pakistan military successfully test fires a new short-range missile On 31 January, the Pakistani army test-fired a new short-range missile – called Nasr; which reportedly has a strike range of about 70 km – as part of an Army Strategic Forces Command training exercise. The missile reportedly has “extreme inflight manoeuvrability, including the end flight manoeuvrability”. This will, allegedly, allow the missile to penetrate any currently available Ballistic missile defence system in the region. There is little doubt that the Nasr missile has been developed with India in mind. The Indian military has denied, but allegedly possesses a military doctrine known as “Cold Start”. The doctrine is part of Indian defence planning and involves various branches of India’s conventional military conducting offensive operations as part of unified battlegroups. In theory, the doctrine intends to allow India’s conventional forces to perform holding attacks to prevent a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan in case of a conflict. ADVICE: A conflict between India and Pakistan remains highly unlikely. Both countries have internal issues that require more attention than a full-scale conflict. Additionally, the possession of nuclear weapons and the mutually assured destruction theory also dampens any prospect of conflict. Afghanistan: Kabul – Officials from the US and the Taliban have made progress during peace talks Talks between the US and Taliban representatives concluded on 26 January after six days in which some significant progress was made towards the potential ending of the enduring conflict. However, some doubts have been raised over two pivotal points; an overall ceasefire and the withdrawal of foreign troops. Another strong point of concern has been the Taliban reluctance to negotiate directly with Afghan officials, raising doubts of the long-term endurance of any peace deal that could be made, and increasing the likelihood of continued domestic insecurity after the withdrawal foreign forces. Progress has been made towards the Taliban’s agreement in no longer permitting terror groups, such as ISIL or Al Qaeda, to find “safe havens” in Afghanistan. Both the US and Taliban officials have agreed to continue negotiations, although no date has been publicly announced as yet. ADVICE: Despite the ongoing talks, attacks by the Taliban remain highly likely as do attack by other militant groups. Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts.  Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency. Nigeria: Nationwide – Six sailors kidnapped in early January have been released

SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
3 Feb	United States	Super Bowl	NEGLIGIBLE
7 Feb	Germany	Berlin Film Festival	NEGLIGIBLE
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

Gulf of Guinea

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24 January: Vessel attack 35nm south of Brass An underway product tanker was reportedly attacked by a single skiff with between 5 and 7 armed pirates onboard, roughly 35nm SSW of Brass, Nigeria. The general alarm was raised, non-essential crew mustered in the citadel and the vessel conducted evasive manoeuvres. The pirates fired upon the vessel; however, vessel hardening measures resulted in pirates moving away. The vessel was reported safe and the incident was reported to Nigerian Navy. 25 January: Second vessel attacked near Brass, Nigeria An exchange of gunshots occurred between a merchant and pirate vessel. The MV applied BMP5 measures and increased the distance from the skiff. The vessel and crew were both reported safe. 25 January: Third vessel attacked 75nm off Brass, Nigeria An underway MV approached by two skiffs at approximately 75nm SSW of Brass, Nigeria. The skiffs which had around 7-8 people onboard, came alongside and attempted to board. The MV increased speed resulting in skiffs turning away. Both the vessel and crew were recorded as safe.

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Americas

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17 January: Ship stores stolen in Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela Unnoticed, robbers boarded an anchored tanker in Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela. They stole ship’s stores and escaped. The theft was noticed by the duty crew during routine rounds.

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South East Asia

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27 January: Twin bombing at church in Jolo, Philippines, leaves 18 dead The coastal city of Jolo has been put on lockdown following a twin bombing on a church in the city. The attack, which was claimed by ISIS, has raised fears of an increase in separatist violence in the region.

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Mediterranean

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11 January: Israeli Vessel enters Lebanese waters An Israeli vessel is reported to have entered Lebanese waters. Details surrounding the incident are unclear; however, it is understood that there was no confrontation and that the vessel returned to its own national waters shortly after.

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A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week

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“Pirates of the Caribbean” operate in the service of drug trafficking between Venezuela and Trinidad Drug trafficking organisations appear to be building up networks and infrastructure to begin upscaling the illegal transportation of narcotics from Venezuela’s province Sucre to the Caribbean. Indeed, the increase in maritime piracy between Trinidad and Venezuela, most notably robberies and attacks on fishermen, may indeed aide in the upscaling of the illicit trade. The country’s proximity has meant that smuggling has been a way of life for many people for almost 10 years. Venezuela is only separated by 16 kilometres of sea from Trinidad. However, the security issues in Venezuela has resulted in a sharp increase in incidents, with the robbery of fishermen now an almost constant occurrence. From Trinidad and the wider Caribbean, the drug traffickers will then be able to export their produce towards the United States and Europe. Sources consulted by InSight Crime have stated that the issue is a complex one: the so-called “Pirates of the Caribbean” operate at the service of two organizations engaged in international drug trafficking, which are located in Rio Caribe, Arismendi municipality of the state Sucre: the bands of San Juan de Unare and San Juan de las Galdonas. The objective of these modern pirates would be to clear the drug routes east of Venezuela and the way to achieve this is by stealing engines and equipment from fishermen, both from Trinidad and Venezuela, to prevent them from travelling along the maritime strip between two countries. This route can then be made clear, and narcotic traders can transport produce from Colombia, through Venezuela and continue towards the Caribbean islands prior to then heading on to other, more lucrative destinations. Indian Navy conducts two day “Sea Vigil” exercise to monitor coastline 22-23 January The exercise was the largest the country had ever conducted in recent times and saw nearly 150 ships, 40 aircraft and a number of other strategic assets of the navy and Coast Guard take part. The exercise, which comprised of two parts, saw the navy, coast guard, police and Kochi Port all take part. With the main goal being to test the overall security of the coastal regions and their preparedness in thwarting an attack by infiltration through the sea route. Additionally, during the exercise, multi-agency teams also evaluated the security set up implemented by agencies including at fishing harbours, fish landing centres, police control rooms and ports. In the first phase, all stakeholders assessed the robustness of their own organisations. During the second phase, simulated attacks were carried out on vital installations and assets by infiltrating through the sea, in Kerala and Lakshadweep. The security agencies were able to thwart attempts by the opposing force to infiltrate onto the coast. Samoa set to receive new patrol boat Samoa is set to receive a new Australian government-funded patrol boat. The acquisition is important as the vessel is part of a wider strategy to improve security cooperation between the two countries. Australia and Samoa will now continue to enhance security and cooperation across defence, policing and cybersecurity. This strategy is being copied by the Australian government across the region. As a result, the Guardian-class Pacific Patrol Boat program will see 21 vessels being gifted by Australia to 12 Pacific Island nations, as well as Timor Leste, as part of the Australian Government’s Pacific Maritime Security Program. The strategy, highlighted in the Australian government’s 2016 Defence White Paper, of gifting vessels was carried out by the Australian government to Pacific islands between 1987 and 1997. The strategy also includes a long term Australian sustainment, training, infrastructure, and advisory support program and will replace the vessels originally gifted between 1987 and 1997. Myanmar to establish coast guard under civilian control According to Union Minister for Transport and Communications U Thant Sin Maung, the Myanmar government is planning to establish a coast guard under the control of the civilian government, not the military. The coast guard will be set up with the main goal to protect national security and fight drug and arms smuggling, as well as human trafficking. According to the president’s office, the reason for setting up the coast guard as a civilian department was that while the navy has the manpower and equipment required to form a coast guard right away, it would be hard for it to handle certain tasks, such as inspecting commercial ships. Therefore the coast guard will be formed with personnel from various departments including Immigration, Customs and Fire Services.

VENEZUELA: Countrywide – Anti-government protests to continue following international support l Risk Rating Change l HIGH to SEVERE l Defer All Travel As part of Solace Global country risk review system, the risk rating for Venezuela has changed from HIGH to SEVERE.   We are advising travellers to DEFER ALL TRAVEL at the current time and for those currently in Venezuela – they should prepare to leave via commercial airline in the coming days.  We regularly review countries alongside our risk matrix and consider potential threats alongside the traveller’s capability to mitigate such threats.  The recent deterioration in the security environment following the outbreak of countrywide protests alongside the long-term degradation of basic government functions, such as healthcare and policing, has left the travellers increasingly exposed to risks. Further complications arise following the decision by several international governments to recognise opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim leader of the country.  This has already provoked a response from the de jure President, Nicolas Maduro, who has broken off diplomatic ties with the US and ordered their diplomats to leave within 72 hours.   The military leadership in Venezuela continue to back Maduro, strengthening his position while also leaving foreign travellers, especially from those countries that have recently come out condemning the Maduro government, increasingly vulnerable to targeted threats while in-country.  Please see our recent Travel Advisory for further details. ADVICE: Defer all travel to Venezuela at the current time.  If you have travellers in-country – start making arrangements for their outbound travel and maintain regular communication until they have left the country. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres – Tensions remain elevated following inauguration of President Tshisekedi.  Minimise movement near protest flashpoints. Felix Tshisekedi was inaugurated as the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on 24 January which marks the first peaceful transition of power in the DRC for 60 years.  Tensions throughout the country remain elevated throughout the country as opposition candidate Fayulu and the Catholic Church continue to call into question the legitimacy of the results.  On 20 January, Congo’s Constitutional Court confirmed Felix Tshisekedi’s presidential election win following a challenge by his main challenger Martin Fayulu who rejected the vote tally by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). The CENI announced provisional results contradict data compiled by the 40,000 election observers operating under the Catholic Church which indicates that the declared runner up, Martin Fayulu, won as much as 61% of the vote.  While the post-election security environment has remained reasonably calm – tensions are expected to become elevated the longer investigations go on.    For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travellers currently in the DRC should continue to minimise movement near potential protest flashpoints in major urban centres and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. Flashpoints include the Constitutional Court and Independent National Electoral Commission in Kinshasa and government buildings in other major cities. If you are in-country, ensure that you have access to, secure, compound-based accommodation and a clear escalation plan if the event security situation deteriorates.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. FRANCE: Paris; urban centres – Anticipate disruption during ‘Gilets Jaunes’ (Yellow Vest) protests on 26 January; counter-protest scheduled for 27 January Countrywide anti-government demonstrations are expected to take place on 26 January as part of the ongoing Yellow Vest movement (Gilets Jaunes).  Scheduled protests have been occurring weekly since 17 November and approximately 84,000 people participated in anti-government rallies on 19 January.  Protests have caused significant disruption in key urban centres, including in the capital Paris, as demonstrators have attempted to block motorways and petrol stations leading to severe traffic delays.  French police have attempted to minimise the impact on major road routes, especially the A1 and A3 highways that connect Paris to Charles de Gaulle Airport.   French authorities have been known to employ forceful measures to disperse protesters including the use of tear gas, stun grenades and water cannons. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between motorists and protesters, if you are caught in traffic caused by protests, remain in your car and follow the direction of the local authorities. SUDAN: Khartoum; urban centres – Anti-government protests continue l Defer non-critical travel in coming weeks Violent anti-government demonstrations have continued into their sixth week amidst growing calls for Omar al-Bashir to step down as President of Sudan. At least 29 people have been killed since protests began on 19 December over the worsening economic situation that has plagued the country since economic reforms were introduced in January 2018.   Protests have occurred daily in major urban centres, including the capital Khartoum and Port Sudan leading to clashes with security forces. Reports suggest that both the military has used live ammunition and tear gas to disperse protesters. A campaign of arrests by the government has tried to target key leaders in the movement including opposition politicians, students, local journalists and civic leaders.  Several foreign journalists have had their work permits revoked and have been asked to leave the country while at least five Sudanese journalists working for foreign media agencies have been detained. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Non-critical travel to Sudan should be deferred until the situation stabilises.  For those in-country, minimise movements in major urban centres in the coming weeks and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in-country, ensure that you have access to, secure, compound-based accommodation and a clear escalation plan if the event security situation deteriorates.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details.

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Global Headlines • 12 – 18 January

LIBYA: Tripoli – Tentative ceasefire holding following clashes between rival militias. Liaise with security provider regarding ground movements. A tentative ceasefire that was implemented after more than a week of fighting between Tripoli-based and Tarhuna-based militias in the capital Tripoli.  At least 16 people were killed and 65 injured following eight days of fighting between militia groups in the south of the city that began on 15 January. Fighting occurred near to the Tripoli International Airport (TIP) after the Government of National Accord (GNA) sought to requisition the airport to begin restoration work. Tensions have remained elevated between regionally based militias since September when a ceasefire ended a month of fighting that killed 100 people.  The influential 7th Infantry Kani Brigade, who are based in Tarhuna, moved on Tripoli following reports that militias based in the capital have been using their presence to exert greater control on politicians and businesses.  Tripoli remains the financial hub of Libya and of central importance to competing factions. Tarhuna based militias have accused the main Tripoli-based militias of exploiting their position to illicit bribes and engage in political corruption. While the ceasefire is expected to hold for the time being following the 7th Infantry Kani Brigade move back to its base in Tarhuna, parliamentary elections are due to take place in early 2019 and could present a further flashpoint for the escalation of fighting between competing militias in western Libya. With Tripoli gaining in strategic and political importance, the leadership of militias based outside the city are growing anxious that Tripoli-based militias are monopolising on major income streams related to the oil industry. ADVICE: While business critical travel to Tripoli remains possible, it remains essential that all logistics are supported by an approved in-country security provider who can support with flexible travel arrangements and client-specific security support.  All travellers should receive a comprehensive briefing on the main security risks prior to travel. SYRIA: Damascus – Detonation of car bomb near Russia Embassy injures four on 24 Jan.  Continue to defer all travel to Syria. A car bomb was detonated near the Russian Embassy in Damascus injuring four people on 24 January in the third such explosion to occur in government held areas of Syria in less than a week.   The blast occurred near the Old City district in an area that is currently housing several foreign embassies that have relocated to the city since the last rebel movement was expelled from Eastern Ghouta in February 2018. A car bomb was also detonated in the coastal city Latakia on 22 January killing one and injuring 14 and an explosion occurred in the southern suburbs of Damascus on 20 January. While the Assad government forces have retaken most of the major urban centres throughout Syria in recent months, many civilians living in these cities are opposed to Assad’s rule.  Further attacks are likely in Damascus in the coming months.  The Syrian war has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths, displaced almost 50 percent of the population and reignited sectarian divides throughout the country.  Governance structures remain severely depleted and anger amongst the local populations has grown as the government have failed to deliver basic civil services. ADVICE: Continue to defer all travel to Syria at the current time.  While some diplomatic representation is reopening in Damascus and the security situation has steadily improved, the preoccupation of security forces with ongoing conflict operations means security is still not adequate for travel.  Both crime and unrest are likely to increase in the coming year with security forces responding aggressively to anti-government demonstrations.  International sanctions continued to make it increasingly difficult for businesses to operate in the country. KENYA; Garissa country – Four injured when militants launch an attack on site run by Chinese construction company. Armed militants suspected of being part of the Al Qaeda linked Al Shabaab group stormed a Chinese-owned construction company in Garissa county on 20 January injuring four people before they were repelled by Kenyan security forces.  The attack occurred close to the Somali border and Kenyan intelligence believe the militant group had crossed the border earlier in the day.  Al Shabaab have shown both the desire and capability to launch regular incursions along the porous Kenyan border as well as in coastal areas in the east of the city.  The attack also comes just days after 21 people were killed in the siege of the Dusit D2 hotel in Nairobi which was subsequently claimed by Al Shabaab.  Further attacks in Kenya remain likely in the coming months. ADVICE: Travel to Kenya’s border regions requires comprehensive security support due to the threat posed by Islamic militants.  Travel to Nairobi and other urban centres can continue but travellers should anticipate a heightened police and military presence throughout the city; especially around other major international hotels, shopping malls, government buildings and other areas of interest. Additionally, all travellers should exercise vigilance and follow all official directives issued by security forces.  The country remains on high alert in the coming weeks – potentially leading to disruption in certain central locations.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF:  Global Security Forecast – Week 4 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Gulf of Guinea

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13 January: Threat by Nigerian Delta “agitators” on country’s oil wells In a statement, Niger Delta “agitators” have threatened to shut down the country if the Federal Government goes ahead with the “harassment” of the Chief Justice. The coalition of the agitators also warned all those who own oil wells in the coastal area to prepare to leave, while asking all persons from the area working in the President Buhari government to “watch” their back. 16 January: Contact made by pirates over kidnapped sailors The Pirates who kidnapped six crew members after they seized the MSC Mandy in the Gulf of Guinea have contacted the shipowner. All those kidnapped in the attack during the early hours of 2 January are understood to be alive and being held in “acceptable” conditions. Additionally, the Russian and Nigerian authorities have reportedly been searching for the seamen. With the Russian Embassy in Nigeria collaborating with the country’s government to track down the location of the crew.

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Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean

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11 January: Explosion and fire at oil refinery in Aden A violent explosion and fire have resulted in significant damage to the state oil refinery in Aden. The fire had reportedly ignited in a reservoir tank holding 7000 tonnes of diesel. There have been reports that the explosion may have been a deliberate act of sabotage; however, this remains unconfirmed.

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South East Asia

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9 January: Malaysian authorities seize drugs following operation The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA)  has foiled an attempt by two fishermen to smuggle 23kg of syabu valued at RM3.4mil out of the country. 10 January: Robbery Ciwandan anchorage, Indonesia During routine rounds, duty crew onboard an anchored cargo vessel noticed the lock to the engine store was broken and ship’s spares missing 12 January: Attempted robbery reported in Cao Fei Dian Large Oil Tank Anchorage, China Two robbers, armed with a steel bar, boarded an anchored bulk carrier at 2030 UTC at the Cao Fei Dian Large Oil Tank Anchorage, China. Duty crew noticed the robbers and raised the alarm. Hearing the alerted crew, the robbers escaped without stealing anything. Incident reported to port authorities. 15 January: Sri Lanka Navy vows to safeguard local fishermen from trespassing Indian trawlers The Sri Lanka Navy has stated that Indian fishermen who illegally poach in the island’s territorial waters have become aggressive and are threatening the livelihood of local fishermen and they will now intervene to protect their national waters; 20 have already been arrested. 15 January: Fishing vessel with foreign crew detained MMEA Sarawak region has detained a locally-owned fishing vessel with a foreign crew for fishing activities which infringed regulations.

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A Closer Look at Maritime News This Week

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IMB states that piracy rose globally in 2018 due to an increase in attacks in West Africa Pirate attacks rose worldwide in 2018 due to a surge of attacks off West Africa, according to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB)’s annual report released last week. As a result, the watchdog has called for an increase in international cooperation to halt the spate of hijackings and kidnappings. According to the IMB, there were 201 recorded incidents of maritime piracy and armed robbery last year, up from 180 in 2017. Of these, reports of attacks in waters between the Ivory Coast and the Democratic Republic of Congo more than doubled, accounting for all six hijackings worldwide, 13 out of the 18 ships that were fired upon as well as the vast majority of kidnap-for-ransom cases. Indeed, in the last quarter of 2018, there was a significant spike in attacks off the coast of West Africa. A wide variety of vessels are being targeted for attack with ships being boarded and hijacked well outside of territorial waters. Crews that are kidnapped are then taken to Nigeria where they are held for ransom; similar to the ongoing Russian sailor’s case. Nigerian waters were by far the most dangerous, with 41 recorded kidnappings in the country’s territorial waters. The Gulf of Guinea has now easily overtaken the Horn of Africa, and the wider Indian Ocean, as Africa’s piracy hotspot. Additionally, the situation does not look like it will improve in the short term, with Nigeria and other countries stating, in some cases, that there is not even a piracy issue. As such, these countries, whose surveillance and maritime defence capabilities are limited, will need to continue bolstering in their own means of intervention. Additionally, a greater emphasis will need to be placed on closer collaboration, with the help of the United States and France; potentially copying the international, Operation Atalanta, counter-piracy operation in the sea off the Horn of Africa. Finally, all vessels transiting the region should have onboard anti-piracy measures in place. Despite the report on the global rise, regional piracy in Asian waters drops Adversely, sea piracy in Asian waters fell to a 12-year low last year according to a regional anti-piracy body. According to the report, there were 76 cases of piracy and armed robbery incidents in the region last year. This is down from 101 cases in 2017 and is the lowest number since the Singapore-based Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) began tracking such figures in 2007. Despite this, there remain some areas of concern. Among the incidents reported last year, seven occurred along the Singapore Strait and one along the Straits of Malacca. In 2017, there were eight incidents along the Singapore Strait and one along the Straits of Malacca; indicating little change in this area. Additionally, abduction cases also fell in the region; however, these do remain a concern. With two crew members being abducted from a fishing trawler in the Sulu-Celebes Seas off eastern Sabah last September. Another three crew members were also abducted from a fishing boat in December. Chinese subs in Djibouti “worrying” according to Indian admiral India has described the Chinese Navy’s growing presence in Djibouti as “worrying”. Admiral Sunil Lanba stated that  The Chinese navy has grown at the fastest pace of any navy in the world in the past 200 years by adding a phenomenal 80 ships to their navy in the past five years. The admiral has stated that they are a force and they are here to stay. Since 2008, the Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region has been mostly in the form of an anti-piracy escort force. However, the actual presence of the navy has caused concern for India and other countries. This is especially true since they’ve deployed submarines, which are “the most unlikely platform” to be used in anti-piracy roles. China has, in the past, stated that there is nothing to worry about and that the base is in fact aimed at deterring piracy in the key Middle East shipping lane and to protest China’s ports which are part of President Xi’s Belt-and-Road infrastructure initiative. China has a number of initiatives designed to expand its influence in the region, with the Indian Ocean initiative being called the “String of Pearls” theory. The theory simply refers to the network of Chinese military and commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines of communication, which extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa. The sea lines run through several major maritime choke points such as the Strait of Mandeb, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lombok Strait as well as other strategic maritime centres in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Somalia. The trend is being played out elsewhere with Japanese Admiral Kawano stating that Japan and China were in a “state of conflict” in the East China Sea. However, the admiral has stated that the countries are in communication and were looking for a visit of defence ministries.

Martin Fayulu, leader of the Engagement for Citizenship and Development party in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has called for campaign of civil disobedience following the Constitutional Courts decision to reject his appeal against the election results on 20 January.

As a result Felix Tshisekedi,  of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress party, could be inaugurated as the new President of the DRC as soon as Tuesday 22 January.

The 30 December 2018 Presidential election has been marred with accusations of vote rigging and fraud following an announcement by the Catholic Church election observers that Martin Fayulu received 60% of the presidential vote and should have been announced as President-elect.  These allegations have been backed-up by leaked data from the electoral commission.

Further allegations have suggested that current President Felix Kabila, who has ruled the DRC since 2001, struck a deal with Tshisekedi allowing him the maintain control of the military and several key government ministries.

Polling also did not take place in several key areas due to instability and the ongoing Ebola Crisis.  Polling indicated that all areas would have voted overwhelming for Fayulu’s Engagement for Citizenship and Development party held.  Elections have been postponed in Beni, Butembo (North Kivu province) and Yumbi (Bandundu province) till March.  The close nature of the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) between Fayulu and Tshisekedi suggest that voting in these areas could have had an impact on the final result – further excluding a large percentage of people from the democratic process. Key opposition figures in the DRC, who were excluded from running in the Presidential election but boast huge regional support, have come out and backed Fayulu’s calls for protests.  Heavyweight politicians  Moise Katumbi and Jean Pierre Bemba who backed the Fayulu led-opposition have called on their supporters to join the campaign of civil disobedience raising fears of anti-government demonstrations erupting throughout the DRC in the coming days.

Solace Global are anticipating widespread unrest in the coming days as citizens of the DRC respond to the courts announcement. Protests are likely to be met by a forceful response by security forces who have used live ammunition against demonstrators during the election period.  Key protest flash points will include the capital Kinshasa as well as opposition held cities including Lubumbashi, Mbuji-Mayi and Kananga.  We are also expecting widespread unrest in Beni and Butembo due to the towns exclusion from the voting process which will create further challenges as international organisations respond to the current Ebola Crisis.

Travel Advice

• In-country staff should minimise all movement in the coming days due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces.  Staff should remain in a secure, gated location, away from potential protest flashpoints.
• Review evacuation plans to ensure they are up to date, realistic and can be implemented at short notice. Consider how you will rapidly assemble staff in a central and secure location especially if they are working in remote locations.
• Travellers should stay up to date with the latest information, especially regarding political demonstrations. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
• Periodically test all communication strategies (multiple communication means will be required including satellite phone) and ensure you have the capability to quickly communicate with staff on the ground.  Internet providers and telephone networks are likely to be intermittently disabled in the coming days.
• Significant traffic disruption is likely near protest flashpoints, on major routes and around key transport and business hubs. Plan routes circumventing areas prone to unrest, alternatively allow additional time if travel through affected areas is unavoidable.
• Anticipate heightened security in urban centres, at protest locations and in the vicinity of government buildings. Exercise vigilance and if people start gathering in a location; leave the area immediately and return to a safe location.
• Always carry personal identification and travel documentation in case you need to transit through a checkpoint.

LEBANON: Beirut –  Anticipate disruption during Arab League Summit 19 -20 January The Arab Social and Economic Development Summit will take place in Beirut on Saturday, 19 January and conclude on Sunday, 20 January 20.  Travellers in Beirut should anticipate heightened security throughout the city as well as road closures and travel disruption over the weekend.  Beirut’s Central Business District will host most of the events over the weekend and access to the area will be heavily restricted for the duration of the weekend.  Road closures near the Central Business District will begin from the evening of 17 January.  Additional security forces are being deployed throughout the city for the duration of the summit.  Disruption and increased waiting times should be expected at Rafic Hariri International Airport as foreign dignities both arrive and depart from 18 – 21 January. Protests and associated disruption should be anticipated, especially in central areas of the city, as political activists seek to exploit the global media attention. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key Summit locations to minimise disruption.  Arrive at the airport in plenty of time for departing flights. Follow all directions by the security forces. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres – Tensions remain elevated following request for recount of election results.  Minimise movement near protest flashpoints. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) constitutional court will rule on Martin Fayulu’s challenge to the election results and request for a recount of the votes.  Fayulu was announced as the provisional runner up by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) however their results did not marry counts by election monitors from the Catholic Church or the pre-election polls.  Numerous governments, including France and the UK, have called for CENI to fully investigate allegations of election fraud following doubts over the credibility of the results and do all that is possible to ensure the candidate with the most votes assume the Presidency.  In an unprecedented move, the African Union (AU) followed suit, stating that the allegations of fraud must be fully investigated prior to the announcement of the election result and calling for the announcement of the final result to be suspended.    The AU will now send a mission to the DRC and have asked the constitutional court to wait until the delegation arrives before continuing their investigation. The CENI announced provisional results contradict data compiled by the 40,000 election observers operating under the Catholic Church which indicates that the declared runner up, Martin Fayulu, won as much as 61% of the vote.  While the post-election security environment has remained reasonably calm – tensions are expected to become elevated the longer investigations go on.    For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travellers currently in the DRC should continue to minimise movement near potential protest flashpoints in major urban centres and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. Flashpoints include the Constitutional Court and Independent National Electoral Commission in Kinshasa and government buildings in other major cities. If you are in-country, ensure that you have access to, secure, compound-based accommodation and a clear escalation plan if the event security situation deteriorates.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. BURKINA FASO: Nord; Est; Sahel regions – Kidnapping and killing of foreign national underscores need for upscaling security precautions. A Canadian geologist working at a mining site in North-eastern Burkino Faso was found dead near Gorom-Gorom (Sahel region) two days after being kidnapped during an attack by militants on a government-run mine exploration site.  The body was discovered riddled with bullets approximately 100km north of the site near the Niger border. Militants stormed the exploration camp in Tiabongou (Sahel region) at 20.00 on 15 January abducting the Canadian national along with Burkinabe national.  The killing comes a matter of days after Canadian authorities announced that one of their citizens was kidnapped along with an Italian national in the west of the country near the second biggest city in Burkina, Bobo-Dioulasso. The severe deterioration in the security environment over the last 12 months has led the Burkina Faso government to implement a state of emergency the Nord, Shael and Est regions; due to the increasing threat posed by Islamist militants.   The long and porous border with Niger and Mali has allowed militants to establish transnational-networks and avoid full confrontation with security forces.  Please revisit our Travel Advisory from October detailing how international organisations should be up-scaling security measures to enable secure travel to the affected regions. ADVICE: Travellers should seek itinerary specific support prior to travel to all border areas due to the credible risk posed by kidnap or attack by Sahel based Islamist militants. Travel risk managers should be confident of escalation and accommodation arrangements and consider a site security assessment before allowing staff to be housed in on-site premises. ZIMBABWE: Harare, Bulawayo; urban centres – Anti-government protests likely to persist in coming days Violent anti-government protests broke out in Harare, Bulawayo and other Zimbabwean cities following a televised announcement by President Emmerson Mnangagwa that gasoline and diesel prices would increase by as much as 100% due to nationwide shortages.  The deteriorating economic situation and ongoing currency crisis has made it increasingly difficult for Zimbabwean importers to secure foreign currency to purchase fuel.  In response to the announcement, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions called for a nationwide strike to be held. Protests erupted on 14 January in most major cities leading to a forceful response by security forces.  Local media reports indicate that police fired tear gas and live ammunition towards large groups and videos have circulated of armed and uniformed men entering hospitals to detain injured protesters.  In response, the Zimbabwean government have implemented a ‘national blackout’ restricting the internet and other telecommunications throughout the country.  Protests are likely to continue in the coming days causing associated disruptions. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travellers in Zimbabwe should minimise near potential protest flashpoints in the coming days due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces and consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Periodically test all communications to ensure you have the capability to quickly speak to the relevant people in a crisis.

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Global Headlines • 12 – 18 January 2019

KENYA: Nairobi – Hotel siege ends.  At least 21 dead and 19 still missing. Anticipate heightened security and associated disruption in coming days. Nineteen hours after the attack began Kenyan President, Uhuru Kenyatta, officially declared the siege at the DusitD2 hotel over on 16 January after all attackers had been killed.  Twenty-one people were confirmed dead while countless others remain unaccounted for. The Al Qaeda linked militant group Al Shabaab, claimed responsibility, stating that the attack was in retaliation to the US decision to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The attack began when five militants stormed the popular Riverside complex at 14.30 local time throwing grenades at vehicles near the main entrance before entering the main lobby of the hotel. Over the next 19 hours, Kenya security forces worked to evacuate those trapped in the hotel and secure the buildings on the site.  Intermittent gunfire and occasional explosions were heard throughout the night. The last militant was neutralised by security forces at approximately 9.00am. Many of those trapped in the building spent the night hiding in office and toilet blocks.   The attack targeted one of the highest profiles and affluent areas of Nairobi that was popular with foreign expatriates, business travellers as well as Kenyan politicians and businessmen.   The globalised and multicultural environment had elevated levels of security and the hotel employed a private security company to provide armed guards on site.  The attack appears to have been carefully planned to ensure maximum global attention and have a longer-term impact on the perception of the travel environment in Kenya – targeting what was considered by many, as one of the most secure areas of the city. ADVICE: Travel to Nairobi can resume following the attack.  Travellers should anticipate a heightened police and military presence throughout the city; especially around other major international hotels, shopping malls, government buildings and other areas of interest. Additionally, all travellers should exercise vigilance and follow all official directives issued by security forces.  The city will remain tense and on high alert in the coming weeks – potentially leading to disruption in certain central locations. SYRIA: Manbij – Four US soldiers killed in suicide explosion at a market in Northern Syria.  Continue to defer all travel. Nineteen people were killed, including four American soldiers, following a suicide explosion at a restaurant in the main market square of the Syria town, Manbij in the north east of Aleppo governorate on 16 January.  The town is currently controlled by Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) after being liberated from Islamic State (IS) rule by American and Syrian Democratic Forces in June 2016.  American soldiers were in the restaurant at the time of the explosion to meet with officials from the Manbij Military council. The attack was subsequently claimed by IS and raised renewed doubts over claims by the American government that the Islamist group had been defeated in Syria.  Manbij remains away from areas of conflict and had been considered one of the safer areas in Northern Syria at the time of the attack.  The suicide bombing highlights the continued instability and lack of security throughout Syria.  The Islamic State are adapting their tactics and will continue to move away from a territory-based insurgence to a guerrilla-styled operation. America’s proposed withdrawal is likely to leave both Kurdish and Syrian forces without the capability to conduct effective counterterrorism operations throughout the country leading to an increase in suicide bombings and hit and run attacks throughout Syria. ADVICE: Continue to defer all travel to Syria at the current time.  While some diplomatic representation is reopening in Damascus and the security situation is improving, the preoccupation of security forces with ongoing conflict operations means security is still not adequate for travel.  Both crime and unrest are likely to increase in the coming year with security forces responding aggressively to anti-government demonstrations.  International sanctions continued to make it increasingly difficult for businesses to operate in the country. COLOMBIA; Bogota – Twenty people were killed after the detonation of a car bomb at the General Santander Police Academy on 17 January. At approximately 9.30 local time on 17 January, a grey vehicle entered the compound of the General Santander police academy in the south of Bogota.  It was stopped soon after by guards at an initial checkpoint just inside the compound before accelerating into a wall and where the car exploded.   A promotion ceremony for cadets was being held at the time of the explosion and families had been invited to see the cadets pass out.  Twenty people were killed and 68 were injured in the blast. The attacker was a 57-year-old male with no criminal record or ties to any militant groups within Colombia.  No militant group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.  Pentolite was used to make the explosive device which has previously been used by rebel groups to target government targets. The suspect lived in the Northern Department of Boyacá in Colombia where the guerrilla militant group the National Liberation Army (ELN) are present.  Although there is no direct link to ELN involvement – they have targeted government and security forces in the past with explosive devices. Five policemen were killed and were 40 wounded when the ELN launched bomb attacks on three different police stations on January 27, 2018 in the north of Columbia. ADVICE: Travellers in Bogota should always maintain situational awareness, minimising time spent near government or judicial buildings and police compounds and checkpoints.  Report any suspicious activity or bags to the local authorities.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

United States: Countrywide – Security fears grow at public transport hubs following government shutdown. A spokesperson for the Transport Security Administration (TSA) announced on 9 January that an increasing number of TSA agents have resigned from their jobs and many others are considering quitting following the partial government shutdown and the subsequent loss of federal employee earnings. The TSA is a department of Homeland Security that was established following the 9/11 terror attacks to provide security at airports and other transport hubs.  The TSA is responsible for all screening measures at airports, putting Federal Air Marshalls on planes as well as providing teams of dog handlers and explosive specialists.  The TSA President announced that the loss of staff has put additional stress on the security infrastructure at major airports and transports hubs. While many agents continue to work for no pay, as their roles are deemed essential, the length of the shutdown has raised fears that government-led security agencies will be unable to quickly recover if increasing levels of staff seek alternative employment.  Aviation experts have already highlighted that wait times at security screening is increasing. ADVICE: While travel to the US can continue, travellers should exercise increased caution at major airports and other transport hubs. Travellers should attempt to arrive at the airport earlier than usual due to the increased waiting times that are anticipated at airport security.  While airport officials have stated there will not be a reduction in the security measures at airports, travellers should remain vigilant. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres – Protests and associated violence to cause widespread disruption following the release of election results. In the early hours of Monday 10 January, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) declared opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi winner of the 30 December Presidential Election 38.5% of the vote.  Current incumbent Joseph Kabila will step down after 18 years in office. Even though this will be the first time that a candidate from an opposition party has been elected to the office of President since DRC gained independence in 1960, controversy remains over the legitimacy of the results. A week ago, foreign diplomats were briefed by the biggest election monitoring body in the country – the National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO) – that their tallies indicated that another opposition candidate Martin Fayulu, leader of the Lamuka coalition, had won the election. The losing candidates will now have ten days to contest the election results in the country’s constitutional court before Tshisekedi is sworn in.  International condemnation may follow if the Catholic Church can provide evidence that their tallies are contradictory to the election result announced by CENI. It is likely that Fayulu will contest the results in the coming days and protest will occur as Fayulu seeks to build momentum behind the challenge. Any unrest is likely to be met by a forceful response by security forces. At least six people were killed, and multiple others were injured, as protests broke out in Kwilu and Tshopo provinces on 10 January.  Celebratory rallies are also causing severe disruption in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Matadi and Bukavu.  For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Defer all inbound travel to the DRC till until after 20 January. Travellers currently in the DRC should minimise all movement and remain in secure accommodation over the coming days due to the risk posed by widespread unrest and associated violence. There is intermittent disruption being reported to both internet and text messaging services and personnel should ensure they have access to a means of communication.  Continue to monitor local and international media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. TUNISIA: Countrywide – Government decision to extend the state of emergency highlights continued threat from militant actors. The Tunisian government have extended the state of emergency till 4 February.  The decision coincides with an increase in recent anti-terror operations following the suicide explosion that occurred in Tunis on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in October killing the attacker and wounding nine others (please see Travel Advisory).  On 3 January security forces stormed an Islamist cell in Sidi Bouzid province (central regions) leading to a gun battle before both militants detonated suicide belts.  One of the dead militants was identified as the leader of a jihadist cell that had ties to Al Qaeda. Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since November 24, 2015, when an explosive device was detonated on a bus killing 12 members of the security forces in downtown Tunis.  While security has improved in urban centres, including Tunis, counterterrorism operations have continued in central provinces of the country, highlighting a continued threat to travellers.  While the state of emergency will have little impact for travellers visiting Tunisia, it does give the government additional powers to suspend certain civil rights and freedoms.  For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travellers in Tunisia should exercise should maintain situational awareness and exercise heightened vigilance in high profile areas such as transport hubs, tourist locations or government buildings.  Report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities.  An increased security presence has been reported in Tunis and other urban centres in recent weeks. KENYA: Nairobi  – Nairobi; Criminal groups posing as app-based taxi operators targeting foreign nationals. Travellers in Nairobi should take additional precautions when travelling in the city following an increase in thefts targeting foreigners using app-based taxi services.  On 9 January a German national was robbed after requesting an app-based taxi in the affluent Kilimani neighbourhood in central Nairobi.  Shortly after being picked up the taxi stopped, and two further men got in.  The foreign national was then held at gunpoint and asked for his bankcards and pin numbers at which point the driver got out and withdrew cash from his accounts before they gave the victim a small amount of money to get a taxi back to his hotel. Crime continues to pose the most significant risk to foreign travellers in Nairobi.  While most incidents are opportunistic in nature, there has been an increasing threat from organised criminal groups specifically targeting high-income Kenyans as well as business travellers. Criminal groups are often armed and are increasingly targeting areas near hotels and major businesses.  On 6 January seven Italian missionaries were robbed in the same area while waiting in their car.  One of the missionaries was subsequently shot and injured in the attack. ADVICE: Travellers in Nairobi should consider heightened precautions to mitigate the risk from crime including minimising the time spent on foot in the city, locking all door and closing all windows when travelling in a vehicle and using a trusted local driver (which can be organised through your hotel) rather than Taxis’ or app-based ride share services.  Remain vigilant to threat from crime and if you feel you are being followed enter a shop or a busy environment and ask for help.

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Global Headlines • 4 – 11 January 2019

BURKINA FASO: Bobo-Dioulasso – Two foreign travellers feared kidnapped. Stringent security measures should be considered for all travel outside capital. All travellers in Burkina Faso are reminded of the dangers of road travel near the Mali border after the Canadian government announced this week that they were treating the disappearance of a Canadian traveller as a kidnapping.  The Canadian and Italian nationals have not been heard from since 15 December when one spoke to a family member from Burkina’s second largest city Bobo-Dioulasso.  The pair were travelling in Western Africa by car and had reportedly driven from Mali across the Burkinabe border (Hauts-Bassins region), an area rife with militant and smuggling activity, before reaching Bobo-Dioulasso.  They were due to drive to the capital, Ouagadougou, before flying on to Togo to support in a humanitarian project.  There has been no contact from the pair since 15 December. Kidnap remains a significant risk in regions bordering Mali.  Homegrown militancy alongside long-term socio-economic inequality and an overstretched military has driven higher rates of kidnapping in recent years. While Islamist groups tend to operate further north in the Sahel and Nord regions of the country local Islamist cells linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have emerged countrywide since the 2015 Burkinabé coup d’état.  The cells which target and embed themselves within local communities are known to use kidnap-for-ransom to finance their operations.  High profile abductions of foreign nations have previously taken place in the Sahel and Nord regions, including a Romanian mineworker and Australian Doctor in 2015.  Both are yet to be released. ADVICE: Travel outside Ouagadougou requires careful planning and appropriate security support including journey management and itinerary specific security briefing.  Road moves should only be conducted during daylight hours, in a well-maintained four-wheel-drive (4WD) vehicle with a comprehensive breakdown kit, water, additional fuel, adequate communications systems and a medical kit. Daily itineraries should be considered carefully, selecting major routes where possible and identifying safe and suitable locations to stop for fuel and provisions, in coordination with a local driver.  Please see our latest Travel Advisory on the rise in terrorist activity in Burkina Faso. AUSTRIA; GERMANY; ITALY: The Alps – Twelve killed following severe winter conditions.  Avalanche threat increased to second highest level, anticipate disruption. At least six people have been killed following heavy snow and high winds in Alpine regions over the last week.  The severe winter conditions have trapped hundreds of people at popular skiing resorts in Austria following widespread road closures.  Parts of Germany and Austria have experience up to 50 cm of snow in past 72 hours.  The avalanche risk rating has been increased to the second highest level in recent days, meaning that lots of roads are now deemed unsafe to travel on.  Several Alpine regions have declared states of emergency as roads, trains and ski resorts remain closed for the third day.  Helicopters normally deployed to control avalanches remain grounded. Heavy snow is projected to continue in Austria, Northern Italy and southern parts of Germany in the coming days. Flight disruption should be expected in the coming days as airlines attempt to clear a backlog of passengers. ADVICE: Travellers are recommended to speak with their airline and their travel provider if they are due to travel to the region in the coming days.  Disruption should be expected throughout the Alpine regions including continued road closures and limited available public transport.  Do not self-drive unless familiar with the road network, speak the local language and you are aware of which routes are currently closed. Local ski resorts in Austria are advising all the guests to not go off-piste while the avalanche risk remains high. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. GABON; Libreville – Normal movement can resume after suspected ringleaders detained on 7 January At approximately 4.30 local time on 7 January, a group of soldiers took control of the national radio station in Libreville and broadcast a live statement announcing the implementation of the ‘National Restoration Council’ to restore democracy to Gabon. Within hours of the broadcast, a government spokesperson stated that four of the five soldiers had subsequently been arrested and order has been restored. A heavy military presence remains visible in some high-profile areas of Libreville however, the city is calm, and at least seven soldiers, including the ring leader, have been detained.  Airports are operating normally, and international land borders remain open. The internet, which was briefly shut down, has been restored. The attempted coup comes amidst growing concerns over President Ali Bongo’s ill health and the potential battle for succession.  President Ali remains in Morocco recuperating after being hospitalised in Saudi Arabia in October with some local reports suggesting he had suffered a stroke. The power vacuum that has been left while the President remains out of the country appears to have prompted today’s events with groups seeking to exploit his absence.  Please see our latest Travel Advisory on the recent coup attempt in Gabon. ADVICE: Travel to Libreville can continue following a stabilisation in the security environment however, travellers should continue to expect heightened security in the coming days.  Always carry your travel and identification documents with you and follow all directives from local officials.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: 20190111 – Global Security Forecast – Week 2 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Local reports indicate that the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) could release the result of the Presidential election tomorrow (9 January).  Reports are not confirmed however all travellers in country should minimise movement outside secure premises due to the risk of widespread unrest and associated violence.

The election period has been marred by allegations of fraud and corruption.  If the release of results are not consistent with other election observation bodies, notably the Catholic Church’s election monitors, Solace Global anticipate a wave of unrest throughout the country leading to widespread violence between opposition supporters and security forces.

Continue to defer all inbound travel to the the Democratic Republic of Congo at the present time. For travel risk managers with staff currently in country ensure that you have up to date and realistic evacuation plans in place that can be activated quickly in the event there is a severe deterioration in the security environment.  Multiple communication means should be established with staff and all movement should be logged with head office.

Staff in country should be aware of these plans and understand their responsibilities in the event that an evacuation is required.

• Continue to defer all inbound travel to the Democratic Republic of Congo
• Review your evacuation plans ensuring they are up to date, realistic and can be implemented at short notice.  Consider how you can rapidly group all staff in a central location especially if they are working in remote locations.
• Check all communication strategies (multiple communication means will be required) and ensure you have the capability to quickly locate staff on the ground.  Consider that internet and telephone networks are likely to be disabled following the release of result.
• Speak with staff on the ground to make sure you have the most up to date information on their situation and to confirm they understand and are confident with their responsibilities if there is a rapid deterioration in the security environment.

Solace Global remain able and prepared to provide a full range of evacuation and response tools including the delivery of integrated monitoring and communication platforms.  Contact us for further details or crisis support +44 (0)1202 795 801 – SGR@solaceglobal.com

CHINA: Beijing – US issues travel warning after a spate of high-profile international detentions. The US state department has issued a travel advisory following a series of high-profile detentions of Canadian and American citizens in China.  The warning comes after two Canadians, one a former diplomat, were arrested and remain in detention following accusations that they harmed national security.  In total thirteen Canadians have been detained since December 1 and three American nationals have also been barred from leaving the country under China’s controversial ‘exit bans’.  The increase in detentions and exit bans has coincided with the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou who was detained in Vancouver on 1 December at the request of the US.  US officials are attempting to extradite the Chinese national following accusations that she manufactured the sale of US technology to Iran through a Hong Kong company in an attempt to circumvent US sanctions. The trade war between China and the US has escalated in recent months and the arrest of citizens on both sides appears part of an ongoing diplomatic dispute.  The US Presidents statement on 12 December, suggesting that he would personally intervene in the Meng Wanzhou case if it would facilitate a favourable trade deal with China, has only added to fears that the recent spate of arrests are politically motivated. ADVICE:   While travel to China can continue, travellers should exercise increased caution and organisations should have pre-considered contingencies in place prior to employee travel. Employees require a valid visa and in-date passport for the duration of their trip.  If detained, travellers should ask security officials to notify their respective embassy as soon as possible. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: EXTREME) – Further unrest likely following a delay in the release of election results.  Continue to defer all travel until after election announcement. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced on 3 January that the release of provisional election results, which had been anticipated on 7 January, would be delayed after reports that only 20 percent of tally sheets had been received by election officials in Kinshasa.  The announcement comes following reports from the Catholic Church, who had thousands of monitors in attendance at polling stations around the country, that disruptions and irregularities were experienced in some provinces during the election.  While the 30 December vote passed off relatively peacefully, the campaign period was marred by violent clashes between security forces and opposition party supporters in key opposition held areas.  At least seven people were killed in the weeks leading up to the election. President Joseph Kabila, who has held the position of President since 2001, will step down following the release of election results.  The country has been gripped by political crisis since 2016 when Kabila’s second and final term ended.  The delay in the release of the election results alongside accusations of voting irregularities by the Catholic Church is likely to provoke further demonstrations in the coming days.  Government authorities have blocked the internet and banned some media broadcasters in an attempt to disrupt the organisation of protest movements.  See our latest Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC untill after the release of the election results. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres in the coming days and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation for the duration election period.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. SUDAN: Khartoum; urban centre – Anti-austerity protests continue, reports of widespread clashes with security forces, further protests likely Opposition political parties and civil society groups are calling for further anti-government protests on the 4 and 6 January.  The announcement comes after more than two weeks of countrywide demonstrations demanding the end to severe austerity measures that have been implemented by the Sudanese government in an attempt tackle growing inflation in the country.  Widespread discontent has gripped Sudan over the last 12 months following a sharp increase in food prices, countrywide fuel shortages and the devaluation of the Sudanese pound. In the last two weeks protest have occurred daily in major urban centres, including the capital Khartoum and Port Sudan leading to clashes with security forces. Nineteen people have been killed since 19 December and local reports indicate that security forces have used tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse crowds.   Sudanese officials have responded to the protests by implementing emergency protocols throughout the country which include curfews in potential protests flash points and the closure of most university campus in the country.  On Sunday 6 January protesters will attempt march on the Presidential Palace in Khartoum at 13.00 to deliver a petition demanding that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir resigns. ADVICE: Travellers in Sudan should exercise addition caution and follow all instructions from local officials.  An increased security presence should be expected in Khartoum and other urban centres.  If you encounter a protest or gathering of people, leave the area immediately and return to a secure location. VENEZUALA: Countrywide (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: EXTREME) – Current incumbent President Nicolas Maduro will be inaugurated for his second term on 10 January, protests likely. Current incumbent Nicholas Maduro will be sworn in for his second term as Venezuelan president on 10 January leading to calls from local civil rights groups and a collation of opposition parties to demonstrate in urban centres.  The main opposition parties boycotted the 20 May presidential election over a lack of transparency and allegations that the National Electoral Council were unable to hold a free and fair election due to perceived bias.  Opposition protests erupted in the capital Caracas on 16 May which were met by a forceful response from security forces who claimed protesters had not sought permission from the government to hold a demonstration. Despite holding huge oil reserves, the Venezuelan economy has been severely mismanaged leading to widespread poverty and malnutrition.  President Maduro is accused of perpetuating the situation following his refusal to acknowledge the economic challenges or the social impact it is having, refusing the support of international aid groups. Thousands of Venezuelans have fled the country over the escalating socioeconomic challenges and fear of political persecution.  In 2017, months of street protests erupted throughout the country after the government arrested several opposition leaders and dissolved the opposition-led national assembly.  Over 150 people were killed, and 4,500 people were arrested. ADVICE: Consider minimising movement in the capital Caracas and other urban centres on 10 January due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces.  Travellers should avoid all opposition-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.

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Global Headlines • 21 December 4 January 2019

MYANMAR: Rakhine State – Renewed fighting between Buddhist armed groups and Myanmar’s military forces thousands to flee Fighting erupted in December between government forces and the Buddhist separatist group the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine state (Western territory) forcing thousands to flee their homes.  Tensions have been elevated in Rakhine state, known for its religious and ethnic diversity, since the Rohingya crisis erupted last year forcing hundreds of thousands of ethnic Rohingya Muslims to seek refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh.  An escalation of hostilities began after two Buddhist men disappeared on 18 December while fishing in Maungdaw township, on the border with Bangladesh and were later found dead.   On the same day a police convoy was ambushed in the area by unknown assailants resulting in the kidnap and death of a police officer.  The Myanmar military responding by launching clearing operations throughout the state forcing thousands of Buddhists to flee their homes and seek shelter in monasteries and communal camps. The Arakan Army have responded to the clearance operation by launching a series of attacks against security forces in the state.  An AA spokesperson stated that on 4 January a series of attacks occurred at several police posts killing seven members of the security forces and taking 12 hostages.  The forced return of Muslim communities who had sought refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh was meant to begin in December but has subsequently been delayed due to ongoing tensions. ADVICE: Travel to Rakhine state should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by a trusted local contact. Foreign travellers require prior approval from the Myanmar government to visit the state. If travelling to any rural parts of the country, make sure you have suitable communication equipment and check-in regularly with a home contact.  Minimise all movements near police, military or government installations. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. UNITED KINGDOM: Manchester – Three people stabbed at Victoria railway station in suspected terror attack on 31 December Three people were stabbed at Victoria railway station on 31 December in a suspected terror attack.  At approximately 21.00 a male suspect approached people waiting at the tram platform in the station before producing a knife and stabbing two individuals.  Screams alerted the British Transport Police situated in the station who were able to quickly apprehend the suspect.  One of the officers was subsequently stabbed while detaining the assailant.  Witnesses reported hearing the attacker shout Allah and anti-western slogans during the attack.  Police are currently treating the incident as a lone-wolf styled terrorist attack and do not believe anyone else was involved in the planning or execution of the attack. Security had been increased throughout the UK over the festive period with additional units deployed to major transport hubs and in high-profile locations.  This ensured a quick response to the incident, minimising the opportunity for the attacker to do further damage, none of those injured are in a critical condition.  Lone-wolf, low profile attacks continue to present a serious concern for counter-terrorism efforts in the UK due to the difficulty faced by security forces and counter-terrorism agencies in tracking and intervening in such attacks. ADVICE: Individuals in the UK should always maintain situational awareness and exercise heightened vigilance in high profile areas such as transport hubs, tourist locations or government buildings.  Report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities.  Security in and around major transport hubs is likely to remain high in the coming weeks and could lead to potential disruption.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. GERMANY: Bottrop – One man detained after several injured in an intentional vehicle ramming incident on 1 January Four people were injured on 1 January after a car was driven into a crowd of tourists near the Plaza in Bottrop situated in the north west of Germany in the early hours of New Years Day.  The assailant, a 50-year-old German male, fled the scene before attempting to hit a second crowd at a bus stop in Essen where he was eventually stopped and apprehended by police.  A senior government official stated that the incident was an intentional attack that clearly intended to kill or maim.  Police are treating the incident as a xenophobic attack motivated by anti-immigration sentiment. The German governments ongoing support to refugees, which has seen the arrival of over one million asylum seekers arrive in the country in the past three years, has led to a sharp rise in tensions between migrant and host communities. In some German state’s crime, including violent crime, has risen during this time and been explicitly linked by German media to the influx of refugees.  While tensions have risen German officials are treating the attack as a one-off event that can be partially attributed to the suspect history of mental health problems.   That said, such attacks can further isolate migrant communities and provides an opportunity for Islamist groups to use the attack as propaganda for their own recruitment activities. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance if travelling in Germany and report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities.  Security in Bottrop and the surrounding areas is likely to remain high in the coming days and could lead to potential disruption.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
8 Jan	Puntland (Somalia)	Regional elections	MODERATE
10 Jan	Venezuela	Presidential Inauguration	HIGH
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 52 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

UNITED KINGDOM: Gatwick Airport, London –  Anticipate disruption; flight delays at Gatwick following drone activity near runway. Gatwick has reopened its runway and a limited number of planes have been allowed to arrive and depart after the authorities implemented a 36-hour suspension of flights after a drone was sighted near one of the runways.  Despite the airport reopening over 100 flights are expected to be cancelled in the next 24 hours, with both planes and crews out of place.  Over 126,000 people were meant to depart from Gatwick yesterday which will likely create a backlog of passengers needing to access different flights and delays at check-in desks throughout the airport.  Local authorities believe the drone activity may have been a deliberate attempt to disrupt air traffic during one of the busiest times of year.  The drone was first spotted at 21.00 on 19 December and was continually sighted over the next 24 hours with the last sighting being late on 20 December.  Please see our recent Christmas and Winter Travel Advisory for more information on what to do during seasonal flight delays. ADVICE: Widespread disruption is expected at Gatwick over the next 48 hours as flight operators seek to clear the backlog of passengers. Those expecting to depart from Gatwick should contact their operator to reconfirm the current status of their flight.  Passengers should also check-in online as soon as possible and arrive to the airport early to prevent your seat being from being reassigned to a standby passenger. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: SEVERE) – Presidential election postponed until 30 December. Anticipate unrest; associated clashes.  Defer non-critical travel. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) has delayed the Presidential Election until 30 December citing a shortfall of electronic voting machines in the capital Kinshasa.  The announcement comes following a suspected arson attack on 13 December that destroyed 8,000 electronic voting machines, roughly two-third of the number required for voting in the capital city. Over the next week CENI will now attempt to move electronic voting machines from other parts of the country to make up the shortfall in Kinshasa and will need to replace five million ballots that were also lost in the fire. The latest delay is likely to create further unrest in the coming days as opposition groups voice their anger over the repeated delays to an election that was meant to take place in 2016.   Protests broke out in Kinshasa near the main university following the announcement of the postponement on 20 December leading to clashes with security forces as they attempted to disperse the demonstrators. The December campaign period has been marred by clashes between opposition supporters and security forces with reports that the military have used live ammunition in an attempt to disperse political rallies in opposition held areas of the country leading to dozens of deaths.  Campaigning has been banned in Kinshasa over fears of related violence.   See our latest Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC till after the election cycle. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres between 29 December – 1 January and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation over the election period.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES (WEST BANK): Ramallah; West Bank – Anticipate unrest; increased security following recent escalation in attacks. Travellers in the West Bank should exercise caution and anticipate heightened security following the recent increase in violence between Palestinians and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF).  Tensions increased throughout the region after two Israeli soldiers were killed at a checkpoint in a drive by shooting near the Israeli settlement Ofra, to the east of Ramallah, on 13 December.  In response to the shooting the IDF temporarily closed access to Ramallah, declaring it a military zone and launching raids into the city to find the perpetrators of the attacks.  Four Palestinians were killed following Israeli operations in the West Bank.  On 20 December a Palestinian was killed after Israeli soldiers opened fire on vehicle at Beit El Military road block north of Ramallah.  The recent escalation in tensions between the two groups is likely to cause further incidents and security operations.  Movement restrictions are likely in the coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in the West Bank should exercise addition caution over the current period and minimise time spent at military checkpoints or near Israeli settlements.  An increased security presence is likely in border regions between Israel and the West Bank and delays should be expected at check points.     Always carry your travel documentation with you as well as photographic ID to minimise delays. MAURITIUS: Countrywide (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE) – Tropical Cyclone Cilida due to make landfall on 22 December; heavy rainfall and flooding possible. Tropical Cyclone Cilida is forecast to make landfall on 22 December on the Island of Mauritius in the southern Indian Ocean.  The cyclone, which is expected to reach an intensity equivalent to a category 4 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale), will result in wind speeds up to 240 kmph (150 mph) as it passes the eastern shoreline of the Island.  Heavy rain and strong winds have been forecast as well as the possibility of storm surges on the eastern coastal areas of the Island.  Travel disruption, including flight cancellations, remains possible during the tropical storm and travellers in or transiting to Mauritius should monitor developments over the coming days and reconfirm their travel schedule. ADVICE: Travellers due to fly from Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) should reconfirm itinerates with their airline.  In the event of cancellations, your travel provider will be able to support with additional arrangements.  Roads may become impassable due to flooding, check the status of routes before setting out on journeys.   Strong winds could bring down electricity pylons and basic preparations should be made in the event of a sustained power outage.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. SPAIN: Barcelona – Anticipate travel disruption; further protests following anti-government demonstrations on 21 December A series of protests broke out in Barcelona following the decision by the Spanish cabinet to hold their weekly meeting in Barcelona.  Demonstrators blocked major highways leading to the city causing severe travel disruption on 21 December. The protests were quickly organised by pro-secessionist parties who see the government decision to hold the weekly meeting in Barcelona as both provocative and detrimental to their hopes for Catalonian succession from Spain.  Local media reported on clashes between security forces and protesters on some major routes into the city as security forces attempt to disperse the protesters. ADVICE: Heightened security measures and significant traffic disruption is expected on 21 December. Further protests are likely over the weekend leading to localised travel disruption.  Confirm the status of routes before setting out on road journeys.   Avoid all protests as a precaution. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.

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Global Headlines: 14 – 20 December 2018

MOROCCO: Imlil (Marrakesh-Safi region) – Two foreign nationals found dead near Atlas Mountains in potential terrorist attack Four men have been arrested on terrorism charges after the bodies of two Scandinavian tourist were discovered on 17 December 10 km (6mi) from the remote village of Imlil (Marrakesh-Safi region) in the Atlas Mountains.  A video was released on social media purported showing one of the victims being killed by the men. A spokesperson for Morocco’s General Prosecutor announced on 20 December that the four men who have been detained had recorded a video pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) a week before the bodies were discovered.  This is the first terrorism related incident to occur outside Morocco’s urban areas. The two female tourists, from Denmark and Norway, had been on a hiking holiday in the Atlas Mountains. Attacks on tourists remain incredibly rare in Morocco, which has become a popular tourist destination with European travellers.  The last known terrorist attack occurred in 2011 when a bomb was planted in a café popular with tourists and expatriates, killing 17 including 11 Europeans. That said, the country continues to host Islamic extremist elements with thousands of Moroccans believed to have travelled to join IS in Syria in recent years. The repatriation of these fighters, following the fall of IS self-proclaimed caliphate, has placed additional pressure on Morocco’s counter terrorism agencies and an increase in small-scale extremist attacks remains possible.  Both Denmark and Norway have issued travel warnings to their citizens following the attack. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance when travelling to Morocco, report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities and minimise time spent in the vicinity of potential terrorist targets (government buildings, tourist destinations, security check points). If visiting a rural part of the country, make sure you have suitable communication equipment and check-in regularly with a home contact.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. TUNISIA: Sidi Bouzid province – Sidi Bouzid province: Security operation dismantles terror cell planning attacks on Tunisian security forces Tunisian Security officials announced on 19 December that it had detained eight individuals in Sidi Bouzid province who were part of an extremist cell with ties to a transnational terrorist organisation.  The announcement comes weeks after 12 individuals were arrested in connection with the suicide bombing that occurred on Avenue Habib Gourguiba in the capital, Tunis on October 26 wounding 26 people and killing the bomber.  An interior ministry spokesperson told local media that all 12 had links to the Islamic State (IS). The attack in October was the first terrorist attack to occur in Tunisia since 2015 when the government-imposed strict counterterrorism reforms, improving the security environment in major cities. The latest development highlights the possibility of increased terrorist activity within Tunisia but also the capability of Tunisian security forces in identifying and disrupting terrorist activity throughout the country.  Further security operations remain likely in the coming weeks and an increased security presence should be expected in major cities and near potential targets for attack (tourist sites, government buildings, transport hubs).  Read our latest Travel Advisory on the increased threat of terrorism in Tunisia. ADVICE: While travel to Tunisia remains possible, enhanced precaution should be considered prior to travel.  Travellers should minimise time spent near potential target sites and refrain from travelling to tourist sites at peak hours.  Minimise movement on foot after dark and maintain a varied routine while in country.  Additionally, remain vigilant to the threat posed by terrorism and report any suspicious behaviour to the authorities. GREECE: Athens – Explosive device detonates at media group headquarters on 18 December, no casualties reported A makeshift explosive device detonated near the headquarters of Greek non-state media group SKAI in the early hours of 17 December, causing extensive damage to the building.  The explosion, which occurred at 2.37am, was described by local media as especially powerful causing damage as high as the sixth floor.  A warning call was made to two media companies 45 minutes before the explosion which allowed both buildings to successfully evacuate before the detonation.  A spokesperson for the Greek anti-terror police announced that 10 kg of explosives had been packed into a rucksack and placed by a roadside barrier immediately outside the building before being remotely detonated.  No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.  A day later the Athens Court of Appeals was evacuated following an anonymous phone call warning of an explosive device being place near the building.  The call was later determined to be a hoax but caused significant disruption as security forces investigated the incident. Targeted political bombings are becoming more frequent in Athens and the attack on media headquarters bore similarities to a bombing that occurred near the Athens Court of Appeals on 21 December 2017 that was claimed by the far-left Group of Popular Fighters who claimed to be targeting the corrupt judicial system.  On 13 November 2018 an improvised explosive device was defused outside the home of the Supreme Court deputy prosecutor.  The bomb had been hidden in motorcycle outside the prosecutor’s home.  Police were alerting to the potential of an IED after an anonymous call was made to the main Athens police station giving the address of the deputy prosecutor.  Small scale IED are likely to continue due the volatile political environment currently dominating Athens, leading to travel disruption. ADVICE: Travellers in Athens should always maintain situational awareness, minimising time spent near government or judicial buildings.  In the event that you are in a building when an alarm sounds, immediately evacuate the building and follow all advise issued by local authorities.  Bomb threats are likely to cause localised disruption in areas of central Athens and in the event of an evacuation plan routes avoiding the area.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
30 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	SEVERE
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH
31 Dec	Guinea-Bissau	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
8 Jan	Puntland (Somalia)	Regional elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 51 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Incidents

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Europe

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18 December: A Russian cargo vessel ran aground off English coast A Russian cargo ship ran aground off Cornwall after its anchor dragged in high winds. The vessel began to list 5 degrees before tugs intervened and rescued the ship at high tide.   Gulf of Guinea

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14 December: Chemical tanker fired upon Armed pirate sin a speed boat fired on an underway chemical tanker. Onboard AST returned fire. Pirates then aborted their attack. 15 December: Attack on MV 84nm WSW of Brass, Nigeria A merchant vessel was reportedly attacked 84nm off Brass. Both the vessel and crew were reported safe. 19 December: Kidnapped crew, including Poles, freed Poland’s foreign ministry announced that eleven foreign crew, including eight Poles, who were kidnapped by pirates off the Nigerian coast in October have been freed.   Americas

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14 December: Failed robbery attempt reported at Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela Four robbers were sighted on the forecastle of an anchored crude oil tanker. Nothing was reported stolen following a search of the vessel. A patrol boat responding to the incident also carried out a search of the surrounding waters.   Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean

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13 December: Suspicious approach on MV A Philippines-flagged crude oil tanker was approached at high speed by between 15 and 20 skiffs all carrying four or five persons. Onboard ASTs fired warning shots which resulted in the skiffs abandoning the approach. The vessel and crew were reported safe after the incident. 14 December: Second arms seizure off Somalia coast in six days An Indian Navy vessel, that had been deployed as part of anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, seized arms from a fishing vessel off the coast of Somalia.  This is the vessels second such seizure in six days.   South East Asia 

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9 December: LATE report of boarding of MV at Tanjung Anchorage in Indonesia Duty watchman onboard an anchored bulk carrier noticed three suspected thieves on deck. All the crew were mustered to the bridge and the authorities were notified.  Local security forces boarded the vessel to investigate. It is unclear if any arrests were made. 9 December: LATE report of a robbery and boarding on MV at Cam Pha Anchorage, Vietnam During routine rounds, the duty crew onboard an anchored bulk carrier in Cam Pha Anchorage noticed a number of suspected thieves armed with bladed weapons and bamboo sticks. The alarm was raised and the crew mustered. Following the alarm, the thieves escaped on a wooden boat with some of the ship’s stores. 14 December: Law enforcement agencies hold anti-piracy drills off Manila Bay A series of drills were conducted with the Philippine Maritime Law Enforcement Agency, simulating potential piracy scenarios, in an effort to boost the capability of the authorities when responding to suspected piracy.   A Closer Look

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The Polish foreign ministry has confirmed that eleven foreigners who were kidnapped at the end of October have been freed The Polish foreign ministry has confirmed that eleven foreign crew members, including eight Polish nationals, who were kidnapped in October have been freed. The ministry did not give details regarding the conditions of their release. The crew, which is also reported to included two Filipinos and a Ukrainian, were taken when a German-owned Liberian-flagged vessel was attacked and boarded off the coast of Nigeria. According to the ministry, this is the fifth case in which Polish sailors have been kidnapped in the Gulf of Guinea since 2013. The waters in the area remain the most dangerous with attacks regularly reported. Honduran Naval Force (FNH) has bolstered its crime response fleet with the purchase of two new speedboats The vessels, MMI 35s, have been bought from Colombia’s Science and Technology Corporation for Naval, Maritime, and Riverine Industry Development (COTECMAR) in an effort to tackle narcotrafficking and transnational crime in the Caribbean. The vessels will also help tackle crime on a regional level. The vessels will be built in the next 12 months by SAFE Boats International. They will both have a range of 250nm and “possess the cutting edge in technology”. In 2018, the FNH carried out more than 3,300 maritime operations. With the acquisition of the MMI 35, service members expect to disrupt transnational crime rings and reduce the violence derived from narcotrafficking. The President of Pakistan has stated that the country’s armed forces, especially the navy, are doing an effective job President Dr. Arif Alvi said that the Pakistani armed forces are one of the most experienced armed forces in the world and the government are proud of their armed forces. He especially mentioned the Pakistani navy, as they, despite their limited resources, have “effectively safeguarded the maritime frontiers of the motherland”. He also mentioned that steps had been taken to stop “foreign intervention” in Balochistan. The President said that trade activities will be increased in the future due to Gwadar Port. However, he also underlined the need for the construction of new vessels for the Navy. Though he did say that the navy’s engineers were highly capable and ready for the job. There was also a final point on the need for a clean coastline to “promote tourism” and said that the Karachi Coast was particularly vulnerable. The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency has alleged that the International Maritime Bureau is misrepresenting Nigeria on Piracy reporting The Nigerian government’s Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has alleged that the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) is misrepresenting piracy in Nigeria by overstating the issue. In a meeting with the IMB the director of NIMASA, Dr. Peterside Dakuku. expressed his anger at the IMB delegation; stating that the country’s reputation was being distorted. The director general added that such distortions could result in reputational damage to the country amongst the international community. The director has also stated that Nigeria is making great strides to tackle piracy and noted that the country had invested in a new satellite surveillance system (mentioned in November’s Maritime Monthly). Additionally, he also explained that NIMASA had proposed a new anti-piracy bill, saying the law would give the agency the authority to prosecute maritime related crimes. The law is currently being considered by politicians in the Nigerian government. The Nigerian Navy has seen significant investment in both equipment and training in an effort to give the military a better footing to combat the increased threat. The Nigerian Navy now has 179 high-speed boats which are being deployed to combat pirate activities. The navy has also stated that it is “winning” the fight against sea pirates citing their improved presence at sea is reducing the incidence of piracy. The navy has attributed this stated success to the adoption of the Maritime Domain Awareness Infrastructure strategy launched a few years ago. However, despite the claims by the country’s navy and the affirmations made by the director of NIMASA, the latest figures from the IMB show that the threat of piracy in Nigerian waters is rising not dropping. The country’s waters are among the most dangerous in the world; according to a report by Brookings (incidents in territorial waters 2018 shown below). However, the IMB noted that the Nigerian navy has taken steps to tackle the threat.

EUROPE: Belgium, Croatia, France; Netherlands (LOW) – Yellow vest protests likely to persist in coming weeks. The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) protests that began in France over planned tax hikes on fuel, continue to spread and cause disruption throughout major European cities. After weeks of disruptive protests in France, President Emmanuel Macron conceded, ending the proposed eco-tax on fuel and introducing economic reform that will increase the minimum wage and reduce tax for most pensioners. Despite these concessions, the Gilets Jaunes movement continues to call for further anti-government demonstrations and the movement has been a catalyst for other anti-government protests in Europe. Major cities in Belgium and the Netherlands saw mass anti-government protests over the last week – attended by participants wearing yellow vests. Unlike in France, these protests are not in response to a specific event but appear to part of a wider movement that remains increasingly angry with the growing divide between the political and working classes. Protests are likely to continue in multiple countries in the coming weeks causing significant disruption. Police have used tear gas and water cannon to disperse demonstrators in key areas and made hundreds of arrests, detaining those who are found to be in possession of items that could be used as weapons. Please see our latest Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been numerous clashes between protesters and security forces, if you are caught near a protest, leave the area immediately, return to a safe location and follow the direction of the local authorities. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: SEVERE) – Tensions rise ahead of impending elections. Anticipate unrest; associated clashes.  Defer non-critical travel till January. Tensions throughout the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have escalated ahead of the 23 December election as political demonstrations are increasingly descending into violent confrontations between political supporters and security forces. On 11 December, a political convoy driving through the streets in organised in support of Martin Fayulu led to clashes between security forces and protesters in Lubumbashi (Haut-Katanga province) resulting in one fatality and 40 injuries when police opened fire on protesters. Further violence occurred when supporters of Felix Tshisekedi, another of the main opposition candidates, arrived at the airport in Mbuji-Mayi (Kasai-Oriental province) on 13 December leading to one fatality. Tshisekedi had earlier held rallies in Beni (North Kivu province) and Bunia (Ituri province), the epicentre of the recent Ebola outbreak, leading to widespread unrest and associated violence in both towns. In the capital Kinshasa, a fire broke out on 13 December at a building registered to the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), destroying 8,000 electronic voting machines, roughly two-third of the number required for voting in Kinshasa. The use of electronic voting machines has been condemned by several opposition parties expressing concerns that they will be rigged. The fire has reignited a debate over their use heightening the already tense atmosphere in the capital. After delaying the polls for two years, Joseph Kabila will step down from the presidency after 17 years in power creating significant uncertainty throughout the country. The election remains a flashpoint for a further deterioration in the security environment with the results likely to be challenged.  See our latest Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC till 1 January. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres between 22 – 24 December and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation over the election period.  Monitor Global Solace alerts for further details. AUSTRALIA: Queensland; Northern Territories (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE) – Disruption likely following passage of category 4 Cyclone Owen. Plan journeys accordingly. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning in coastal regions of Queensland and the Northern Territories following Cyclone Owen making landfall on 13 December. Heavy rain and windspeeds of up to 200 km/h (124 mph) are expected as the cyclone moves down the coast and could prompt flooding and storm surges in low-lying areas. The intensity of the storm is expected to dissipate as it moves inland late on 12 December however travel disruption should be expected. The intensity and trajectories of storms can change with little notice and travellers should stay up to date with local media and Solace Global Alerts. ADVICE: Disruption is expected in Queensland; Northern Territories in the coming days. Roads may become flooded and impassable and flights could be delayed or cancelled. Travellers due to fly to or from Queensland or the Northern Territories should speak with their airline to reconfirm itineraries.  If conducting road travel in the coming days, ensure the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure your vehicle is in good condition and appropriately equipped for the weather conditions. COSTA RICA: San José (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE) Further flight delays; cancellations from Juan Santamaría International Airport possible following eruption of Turrialba Volcano. Increased activity at the Turrialba Volcano on 12 December has caused several delays to flights from Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) over the last 48 hours and further delays and cancellations are likely. The volcano situated 35 km (25 mi) from the capital, San José, is currently spewing a column of ash 500 – 800 meters above the crater (4000 – 5000 meters above sea level) which has been propagated by strong winds in the last 24 hours. Poor air quality is being reported in parts of the city posing additional health risks to travellers in the San José. The decision to delay or suspend flights due to volcanic ash remains at the discretion of airlines however, airlines will generally remain on the side of caution, not risking departing in high concentrations of ash. ADVICE: Travellers due to fly from Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) should speak to their airline prior to travel to the airport to reconfirm itinerates.  In the event of cancellations, your travel provider will be able to support with additional arrangements. UKRAINE: Kiev (MODERATE) – Anticipate disruption during anti-Russia protests on 17 December Ukraine’s minister for Veterans announced that a demonstration will take place in Independence Square in central Kiev on December 17 in support of the sailors who have been detained in Russia since 25 November.  The rally, which is due to take place at 19.00, is expected to be attended by thousands of citizens, veterans as well as several high-profile politicians. Tensions remain elevated between Russia and Ukraine since Russia boarded three Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait and detained 24 crewmen. Please see our recent Travel Advisory for more information. ADVICE: Heightened security measures and significant traffic disruption is expected in the vicinity of the rally. The rally is expected to transpire   peacefully; however, travellers should plan routes avoiding Independence Square.

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GLOBAL HEADLINES: 7 – 14 December 2018

  FRANCE: Strasbourg (LOW) – Police shoot and kill gunman who attacked Christmas Market on 11 Dec in suspected terror attack. Late on 13 December, French Police shot and killed the individual accused of committing the Strasbourg Christmas Market on 11 December.  Three people died following the suspected terror attack two days earlier when the 29-year-old French national of Moroccan descent indiscriminately opened fire on passers-by near Place Kleber in central Strasbourg.  The assailant was shot by responding security forces but managed to flee in a Taxi towards the Neudorf suburb of Strasbourg.  There were fears that he had managed to cross the border into Germany however at 21.00 on 13 December, three police officers spotted a male matching the suspect’s description in the Neudorf area.  When they approached the man to stop him, the suspect opened fire.  The police responded by firing back, killing the attacker.  The Strasbourg Christmas Market has subsequently will reopen from tonight. The attack at Strasbourg Christmas Market has prompted fears that terrorist will seek to target major tourist attractions in Europe over the festive period.  The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) have subsequently updated their travel website notifying all British citizens to remain vigilant over the Christmas and New Year period.   The attack in Strasbourg highlights the continued intent for terror groups to inspire lone wolf attacks that spark media attention. Please read our latest Travel Advisory for more information on the Strasbourg attack. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance if travelling in Europe throughout the Christmas period and report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities.  Security in Strasbourg is likely to remain high in the coming days and could lead to potential disruption. RWANDA: Rubavu district (MODERATE) – Militants attack village in cross border raid.  Travellers advised to exercise caution in border regions. A spokesperson for Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) has reported that the Rwandan soldiers engaged in a firefight on 9 December with militants suspected of being part of the Congolese group Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The militants are believed to have crossed the border from Gome (North Kivu Province) in the DRC before assaulting the village of Cyamabuye. The RDF responded quickly to the incident repelling the attack and killing four militants.  One civilian was also injured in the attack. Cross-border attacks by militant groups have become increasingly rare in Rwanda, stabilising the security environment in border areas with the DRC. While it remains too early to tell whether there will be an upsurge of such attacks, travellers should carefully monitor developments.  The last such cross-border FDLR attack was reported to be in 2016, resulting in the death of numerous civilians.  The impact of cross-border attacks is further exacerbated by the escalating Ebola crisis in the neighbouring North Kivu and Ituri provinces, heightening the risk that cross-border militants could also carry the spread of the virus. ADVICE: Travel to Rwanda’s western border can continue however, travellers should consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of further attacks from DRC rebels on Rwandan territory.  Given the current complexity surrounding transmission control relating to the Ebola outbreak, travellers should follow international advice on transmission control and minimise time spent in rural areas. TOGO: Lomé; urban centres (Country: MODERATE; Civil Unrest: HIGH) – Multiple fatalities reported as anti-government protests persist Political parties opposed to the upcoming constitutional referendum on 16 December are continuing to call for civil demonstrations up until the 18 December.  Large-scale protests have already taken place in the capital Lomé and other urban centres over the referendum that will seek to re-introduce presidential term limits, but retroactively allow current President, Faure Gnassingbé, to contest a further two terms.  Opposition parties are requesting that Gnassingbé, who has ruled since his father’s death in 2005, be limited to his already served terms in office. The Togo government banned all opposition protests in the build-up to the referendum, however, this has not stemmed the protests with tens of thousands of civilians taking to streets in Lomé on 8 December and thousands demonstration in Sokode the second biggest city, on 10 December.  Security forces have responded aggressively to the protests.  Local media have reported that they have used live ammunition and tear gas in an attempt to disperse protesters.  Six civilian fatalities have been reported so far.  Please read our latest Travel Advisory for more information on the recent unrest in Togo. ADVICE: Opposition groups are likely to defy the government order and continue with planned protests in major urban centres leading to widespread clashes with security forces. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area and avoid all protests.  Minimise movement outside safe accommodation on 16 and 20 December.

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SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS – December 13 onwards

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
16 Dec	Bahrain	National Day	LOW
16 Dec	Kazakhstan	Independence Day	LOW
16 Dec	Togo	Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform	MODERATE
17 Dec	Bhutan	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
18 Dec	Qatar	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
19 Dec	Madagascar	Second round of presidential vote	HIGH
20 Dec	Togo	Legislative elections	HIGH
22 Dec	Iraq	Provincial elections	HIGH
23 Dec	DRC	Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections	SEVERE
30 Dec	Bangladesh	Parliamentary elections	HIGH
31 Dec	Guinea-Bissau	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 50 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.