Week 43/4 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

28 October 18: Pirate whaler seized and destroyed by EU NAVFOR: EU NAVFOR military personnel seized an active Pirate Action Group (PAG) whaler on 28 October before destroying the vessel in a controlled explosion. The whaler had been under surveillance since a merchant vessel was attacked off the coast of Somalia on 16 October (see maritime advisory). Following investigations by EU NAVFOR it was concluded that it was likely that the vessel would be used to launch further attacks on maritime shipping transiting the area. The vessel was tracked to a small bay off the Somali coast, where it was seized and destroyed. 23 October 18: Royal Navy vessel intercepted by Iranian attack boats in the Persian Gulf. HMS Dragon, a Royal Navy type 45 Destroyer, was intercepted by three Iranian gun boats while escorting British vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The incident sparked a stand-off between the two naval forces. The Iranian gunships demanded that the British vessels remain 1000 yards clear of their port side. Following communications between the Officer of the Watch and the Iranian authorities the Iranian vessels eventually moved aside however, the incident highlights ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

22 October 18: Vessel boarded at Pointe Noire. Suspected criminals boarded an anchored MV at 23.28 LT in position 4°46°46N – 11°47°30E off Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo. The two armed men boarded the vessel via the anchor chain and proceeded to steal ropes before disembarking. Crew and vessel have been reported safe. 27 October 18: MV attacked 60nm from Bonny, Nigeria. At 04.00 LT a distress call was received on the Emergency Broadcast Channel 16 from a MV in position 03°21N 006°30E. The vessel declared that it was being chased by two skiffs before it started moving in a circular motion. The attack has since been confirmed by the Nigerian Navy. 11 crew members are suspected to have been kidnapped, nine further crew members were left on board, unharmed. An investigation by Nigerian authorities is underway. 29 October 18: Two MV under attack 102nm of Pointe Noire. Two vessels were reported under attack at 12.50 LT in position 04°47S 010°07E. One MV and its crew are safe however the second MV is reported hijacked. Last position recorded at 14.24 LT at position 04°42S 010°04E. A further report indicates a third vessel was subsequently hijacked but has now been released.

Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

17 October 18: Anchored Bulk Carrier boarded by criminals at Muara Berau Anchorage, Samarinda Two armed men boarded an anchored bulk carrier. The duty seaman notified the duty officer after noticing intruders on forecastle deck. The alarm was raised and crew mustered. On investigation, the ship stores were reportedly stolen. The relevant authorities were notified of incident.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43

Headlines From This Week

Foreign national killed in Madagascar – A French national who had been a long-time resident in Madagascar was killed during an armed robbery in the Ankadikely Ilafy suburb of the capital Antananarivo. Police are currently searching for the assailants and it remains unclear at this time if the person was targeted specifically due to his nationality. Crime rates are high throughout the capital and the wider country due to the poor economic conditions and rising inequality. Robberies are common and foreigners can be targeted due to their presumed wealth. This incident is the second attack on a foreign national in as many months; in September, a United States diplomat was found dead in his residence following what is being investigated as a homicide.
Japanese hostage returns after three years in Syria – A freelance journalist has returned to Japan after spending three years in captivity in Syria. Jumpei Yasuda who went missing after travelling from Turkey to Syria in 2015, was confirmed captured in a video posted by militants in Syria in March 2016; allegedly by the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. Yasuda has come under pressure to reveal more details regarding his time in captivity. His health was checked prior to boarding the plane to Tokyo. The Japanese foreign ministry stated that no ransom had been paid.
Multiple companies snub Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia – Due to the ongoing situation over the death of the Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, numerous companies snubbed the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia. Dubbed “Davos in the Desert”, the conference intends to set the Saudi economy up for the “post-oil future”. Despite several major companies withdrawing from the event, many still attended with some understood to have signed deals with Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Saudi’s finance minister has announced that non-oil revenue grew by 48 percent in Q3.
Multiple suspicious packages sent to Democrats and the CNN building in the US – Numerous suspicious packages were sent to the addresses of a number of prominent Democratic politicians and Trump critics on 24 and 25 October. While not confirmed for all the devices, it has been reported that at least one contained a “live explosive device”. All packages have thus far been intercepted with no injuries being reported. The FBI is currently investigating to find the person or people responsible for sending the packages. Every person who has been targeted by the packages has been on the receiving end of insults from President Donald Trump.
The UK FCO now advises against travel to areas in northern Benin – The UK’s FCO are now advising against all travel to the Parc du W as well as Meêkrou and Djona, and against all but essential travel to the area between the Interstate Highway (RNIE) 2 (Tchaourou to Malanville) and the Nigerian border. The change in advice coincides with an increase in militant activity in the area. Attacks in Benin can’t be ruled out. Benin contributes to both the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to combat Boko Haram and the UN peacekeeping initiative in Mali (MINUSMA) and may therefore be considered a legitimate target by terrorist groups in the wider region including IS West Africa (ISWA), Boko Haram and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQ-M).

What To Look Out For Next Week

Mob violence increasing due to fake WhatsApp group messages in India – Allegations being spread by the messaging service WhatsApp is resulting in a string of vigilante murders. Parents of victims of the so-called “WhatsApp murders” are increasingly demanding action by the Indian government. At least 27 men have recently been beaten to death by mobs who wrongly accused them of being child snatchers. Women have also been killed after being accused of being witches. Thus far the government has been slow in its response; however, WhatsApp has implemented limited measures, such as limiting the number of people someone can mass forward messages to, in an effort to tackle the growing problem. All of the victims have been local nationals and allegations include either the harming or the snatching of children. Foreigners should exercise caution as vigilante attacks escalate quickly and tend to target those unfamiliar to locals. While foreigners have not been targeted yet, there remains a threat that they could be targeted in further attacks.
Polls set to open for the second round of Brazil’s presidential election on 28 October – The second round of Brazil’s presidential election is set to take place on Sunday, 28 October. The runoff pits the controversial far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro against a more moderate left-wing candidate Fernando Haddad. Bolsonaro has been dubbed the “Trump of Brazil” and survived an assassination attempt during his presidential campaign. Haddad replaces long-time, and popular, politician Lula da Silva who has been barred from running due to corruption charges. While Bolsonaro won the first round comfortably, and is favourite for the second round; the vote is close, and tensions remain high. Demonstrations are likely to cause severe travel disruption and clashes between supporters remain a threat. Travellers should consider any movement outside secure accommodation on election day, liaise with local contacts to assess the feasibility of routes.
Argentina austerity measures approved by Congress – The Argentine government has approved a new wave of austerity measures after a 14-hour debate by the country’s congress. The measures are widely unpopular in the South American country with protests likely. There has already been unrest in the build-up to the vote by Congress; with protesters clashing with police outside governmental buildings. Riot police were forced to fire rubber bullets and employ tear gas and water cannons in an effort to disperse the demonstrators outside of the Congress building in Buenos Aires. This unrest is likely to continue in the coming days and potentially weeks. The austerity measures were vital for the Argentine government to secure an IMF loan.
Continued fallout from Saudi journalist case – Ankara has announced that it has more evidence regarding the killing of Jamal Khashoggi and has called on Saudi officials to reveal who ordered the killing. Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s chief prosecutor is due to visit Istanbul on Sunday, 28 October, as part of the investigation. Investigations by both countries continue and 18 Saudi nationals have been arrested.

Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for unrest
25-28 Oct	Mexico	Referendum on new Mexico City Airport
26 Oct	Austria	National Day
26 Oct	Ireland	Presidential election
27 Oct	St Vincent and Grenadines	Independence Day
27 Oct	Turkmenistan	Independence Day
27 Oct	Gabon	Legislative Election (second round)	High Potential for violence
28 Oct	Georgia	Presidential election
28 Oct	Brazil	Presidential election (second round)	High potential for violence
28 Oct	Czech Rep.	Independence Day
29 Oct	Turkey	Closure of Ataturk Airport, Istanbul Republic Day
30 Oct	Israel	Municipal Elections	Low potential for violence
31 Oct	Global	Halloween
31 Oct	Burkina Faso	March planned in Ouagadougou to commemorate 4^th anniversary of 2014 popular uprising	Moderate potential for violence
31 Oct	Mexico	Water cuts in Mexico from 31 October to November 3
1 Nov	Antigua and Barbuda	Independence Day
1 Nov	Algeria	Revolution Day
1 Nov	United Kingdom	Bank of England meeting with Inflation report
3 Nov	Dominica	Independence Day
5 Nov	United Kingdom	Bonfire Night
6 Nov	United States	Midterm elections
7 Nov	Madagascar	Presidential Election
7 Nov	Global	Diwali

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42

Headlines From This Week

At least 20 people were killed following shooting in Kerch, Crimea – Dozens were also wounded following the shooting in a college in Kerch on 17 October. Russia’s Investigative Committee said that an 18-year old student entered the school and left a nail bomb in the cafeteria before detonating the explosive remotely. He then began shooting indiscriminately at people before killing himself. Five teacher and 15 students have so far been confirmed to have died in the attack with the death toll likely to rise. Local government officials have declared a state-of-emergency in wake of the incident. Despite the incident, the security situation in Crimea has remained relatively calm since March 2017 referendum when citizens voting overwhelmingly to re-unite with Russia.
Protests reported following firefight in Srinagar, Indian administrated Jammu and Kashmir – Protests erupted in Srinagar on 18 October after two suspected militant and a civilian were killed following a counter insurgency operation. The firefight, between Indian security forces and militants, occurred after the security forces raided a home in the Fateh Kadal area of the city, apprehending a man suspected of being a member of a militant group. Several journalists were arrested as they tried to report on the situation. Anti-Indian demonstrations by residents quickly followed the incident with security forces firing tear gas towards protesters. Communication, including mobile and internet services, were shut down in the city in an attempt to stop the situation further escalating. While communications have now been restored, local anger over counter-insurgency operations is likely to lead to further unrest in the coming days.
Fatalities following clashes during protests in Comoros – Three people were killed on 16 October following clashes between protesters and security forces on Anjouan island. Authorities imposed a curfew on the largest town on the island, Mutsamudu, however demonstrations continued overnight resulting in the use of tear gas and live ammunition by security forces to disperse protesters. Instability has rocked Anjouan Island since 30 July national referendum that made constitutional reforms allowing current incumbent, Assoumani, to run for a second term in 2021. Previously the presidency would rotate every year between Comoros’ three Islands. Opposition parties boycotted the vote in July, denouncing it as a power grab by Assoumani. A government crackdown on opposition politicians, including arrests and censorship of media institutes, is likely to exacerbate tensions. Clashes between protesters and security forces is likely to continue in the short to medium term.
Fatalities resulted from flooding in Aude, southern France – At least 13 people have been killed after flash flooding struck the southern French department of Aude. Several months of rain fell in a few hours resulting in the water rising quickly in many towns and villages. The Aude River rose by 7 meters in some places An Interior Ministry spokesman stated that nine of the deaths centred on the town of Trebes. The flooding is believed to be the worst in the region since 1891. Around 700 firefighters were deployed with around 160 police officers and seven helicopters. Local travel disruption is expected to continue over the coming days.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Prominent Afghan police general assassinated in Kandahar – Abdul Razaq, one of Afghanistan’s most senior Police Chiefs, was assassinated in a targeted attack on 18 October 2018 in Kandahar city. The general had just left a meeting at the provincial governor’s compound when his bodyguard opened fire killing the general, the provincial governor and a senior intelligence official. Gen. Scott Miller, commander of NATO Resolute Support, attended the meeting but was reportedly unharmed in the incident. Although Gen. Razaq remained a controversial figure, his administration of Kandahar, alongside strong relationships with local Pashtun leaders, brought stability to the province and the wider region. Parliamentary elections in Kandahar will be postponed for one week following the incident due increased fears around security. Gen. Razaq’s death is expected to have a ripple effect across the province, leading to a resurgence of anti-government opposition from prominent tribal families and a deterioration in the security environment.
Ebola epidemic continues in eastern provinces of Congo DR – New cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have been confirmed in both Beni and North Kivu following a brief lull in confirmed cases. The international response to the Ebola outbreak has been hampered by access issues due to ongoing insurgency and the insecurity throughout such regions. Recent cases have been documented within miles of the border regions with Rwanda and Uganda. Local medical facilities in the area remain severely under resourced to deal with the crisis however, several international NGO’s have now established treatment centres in the hope they minimise the spread of the disease. While the most recent outbreak of EVD in the DRC remains limited in its spread, there remains a risk that it might cross land borders becoming an international crisis and much harder to control. Travellers should defer all travel to the eastern provinces of the DRC at the current time. Land borders are currently being heavily regulated by Rwandan and Ugandan border forces and delays are expected.
Campaigning set to intensify ahead of November 7 Madagascan presidential election – Madagascar will go to the polls on November 7 to vote on the next president. The 2009 political crisis, brought on by increasing levels of inequality, ended in a coup d’état, deposing Marc Ravalomanana after the then president imposed increasingly authoritative polices to supress unrest. In the intervening years Madagascar has struggled to economise, leading to high levels if poverty and a lack of development. This year’s election is seen as vital to ensuring better economic prospects for the country and reducing levels of crime and unrest. At this time, 92 percent of the Malagasy population living in absolute poverty (under 2 dollars a day) political stability and consensus will be essential to tackling the economic crisis. Thirty-six candidates will run in the first round including Ravalomanana as well as the leaders of the 2009 coup Andry Rajoelina. If there is no outright winner achieving 51%, a runoff will be contested between the two candidates who receive the highest vote share on 19 December. Travellers in Madagascar should expect an increase in political demonstrations in the coming weeks as the campaigning intensifies. Local travel disruption should be expected as well as localised clashes between protesters and security forces.

Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for violence
19 Oct	Bangladesh	Durga Puja
19 Oct	Belgium	12th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM)
20 Oct	London	Protest, Park Lane to Parliament Square at 12.00
20 Oct	Guatemala	Revolution Day
20 Oct	Kenya	Mashujaa Day
20 Oct	Afghanistan	Parliamentary and District Elections	High potential for violence
21 Oct	Cameroon	Planned march in Douala over elections irregularities	Moderate potential for violence
23 Oct	Guinea	Planned protest in Conakry over cost of living	High potential for violence
24 Oct	Tunisia	Nationwide union strikes over economic grievances	Moderate potential for violence
24 Oct	Zambia	Independence Day
24 Oct to 25 Oct	Canada	Summit on reforming the World Trade Organisation
25 Oct	China	Japanese Prime Minister to visit China
26 Oct	Ireland	Presidential Election
26 Oct	Congo DR	Nationwide rallies expected as campaigning for 23 Dec presidential election begins
26 Oct	Austria	National day
27 Oct	St Vincent and Grenadines	Independence Day
27 Oct	Turkmenistan	Independence Day
28 Oct	Gabon	Legislative Election (second round)	Moderate potential for violence
28 Oct	Georgia	Presidential election
28 Oct	Brazil	Presidential election (second round)	Moderate potential for violence
29 Oct	Turkey	Closure of Ataturk Airport, Istanbul Republic Day
31 Oct	Burkina Faso	March planned in Ouagadougou to commemorate 4^th anniversary of 2014 popular uprising
31 Oct	Mexico	Water cuts in Mexico from 31 October to November 3

Week 42 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

16 October 18: MV attacked off 340nm east of Mogadishu, Somalia. Four pirates in a speed boat approached an underway bulk carrier at 1234 UTC in position 00°49N, 050°53E. The pirates, armed with AK-47s, fired several shots towards the vessel prompting the Master to raise the alarm, contact local authorities and activate the ship security alarm system (SSAS). The crew mustered and armed guards onboard the vessel returned fire, resulting in the pirates aborting the attack and moving out of site. All crew reported safe. 16 October 18: Alain Goma freed after being held by Houthi rebels for four months in Sana’a, Yemen. Intense negotiations between the French Envoy to Yemen and Houthi leaders resulted in the release of the French citizen. Goma had been held since July when his vessel was damaged on a sailing trip forcing him to dock at the Yemeni port of Hodeida which was being occupied by the Houthi rebels. He was later transferred to Sana’a’s main prison. French authorities thanked both Omani and Saudi authorities for their subsequent intervention in negotiations.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

14 October 18: Vessel boarded at Lagos Anchorage. Two suspected criminals boarded an anchored product tanker at 0045 LT in position 6°17°2N – 3°13°87E in Lagos’ Secure Anchorage Area, Nigeria. The duty watchman was alerted to their presence and quickly raised the alarm and sounded the ships horn, both intruders subsequently disembarked the vessel. The tanker was searched and the incident was reported to local authorities who dispatch a patrol vessel. This latest incident highlights an uptick in the number of vessels being bordered while at Lagos port or anchorage. Since January 2018, 14 intrusions have been reported, a clear rise from the six reported throughout 2017.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

12 October 18: Italian Prime Ministers announces that two Italian vessels seized by Libya forces will return home. On 10 October the Libyan National Army released a statement saying that they had seized the vessels in Libyan territorial waters and brought them to Ras al-Hilal port. The two fishing vessels and their crews have now been authorised to return back to Italy.

Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 October 18: LATE Anchored LPG Tanker boarded off Kandla. Criminals bordered the LPG tanker in position 22°48°1N, 68°58°3E at Deedayal Anchorage and raided the ships stores before escaping. The theft went unnoticed by the ships crew and was only realised on a routine stowaway search at 17.30 UTC on 10 October. The incident was reported to Port Control.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 42 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Roundup – Week 41

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Michael hits the United States – At least 11 people have been killed after Hurricane Michael made landfall just north of Mexico Beach (Bay County, Florida), rapidly escalating from a Category 2 to a Category 4 storm (Saffir Simpson scale). The storm achieved wind speeds of 155mph (250kph); falling just 5mph short becoming a Category 5 storm. It is the strongest hurricane to hit the region for 25 years and caused significant damage and flooding in both Florida and Georgia. Local communication infrastructure reportedly remains significantly damaged and up to 1.1 million households and business are currently without electricity from Florida up to Virginia. The remnants of the storm are now of the east coast of the United States with windspeeds equivalent to a tropical storm. Violence in Anglophone regions during Cameroon elections – Violence in the Anglophone regions marred the 7 October election, with separatists shutting down numerous polling stations and established ‘ghost towns’ in Bamenda (Northwest region) and Beau (Southwest region). Clashes also occurred between the military and separatist movements. The Cameroonian authorities temporarily closed all of Cameroon’s ports of entry for a 24-hour period on polling day; most have now reopened with only some land borders with Nigeria remaining closed. On 8 October, Maurice Kamto, the main opposition leader, declared himself the winner; however, the result can only be released by the Constitutional Council of Cameroon. This result will be announced in the next ten days, with current incumbent, Paul Biya, likely to be named the victor. In this event, unrest should be expected throughout the country. Missile intercepted over southern Saudi Arabia – Saudi air defence intercepted a missile fired from Yemen on 10 October just before 23:00 local time. A spokesperson for the Saudi military stated that the country’s air defences had intercepted and destroyed the missile, which was targeting the city of Najran. The latest incident comes after, a missile damaged a mosque in Asir region last month. While not independently verified, Saudi officials say that some 112 citizens and residents have been killed with hundreds more wounded in 204 ballistic attacks on the kingdom. Missing Journalist increases tensions between Saudi Arabia and Turkey – Tensions have been heightened between Ankara and Riyad over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Turkish authorities have alleged that Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The authorities have said they have audio and visual evidence that there had been an assault and a struggle inside the consulate. Saudi Arabia firmly denies any involvement in the disappearance. The case has raised tensions between the Saudi Crown Prince and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan; the latter declaring himself as a champion of the Arab Spring with the crown prince positioning himself in the opposite camp. Clashes between police and protesters in Mauritania – On 8 October, protesters clashed with security forces during a protest outside the parliament building in Nouakchott. The demonstrators were protesting against slavery, demanding the release of anti-slavery campaigner and new Member of Parliament Biram Ould Dah Abeid who was jailed on 7 August for alleged hate speech. Further protests are likely in the coming days and weeks with clashes also likely.

What To Look Out for Next Week

Afghanistan district and parliamentary elections – Polling is likely to go ahead on 20 October amid tensions from the Taliban, who have vowed to block the elections. There are also severe concerns from international election observes over the transparency of the long-delayed parliamentary elections. Militant groups have been quick to launch attacks on campaigning events, on 9 October a suicide bomber in Lashkar Gah (Helmand Province) targeted the office of local candidate Mohammad Achakzai, killing him and seven others. In July an IED was detonated at a rally being held in Jalalabad (Nangarhar Province) by the only Sikh candidate in the elections, Avtar Singh Khalsa, killing 20 people. The Taliban have called the elections an American conspiracy to undermine Afghanistan. Targeted attacks on electoral candidates are likely to continue in the run-up to the polling day and travellers should avoid all political rally’s and large gatherings of people, maintaining a low profile for the duration of their time in the country. Turkey to reopen consulates in Mosul and Basra, Iraq – Following a meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, and new Iraqi President, Bahram Salih, Turkey has made the decision to reopen their consulates in Mosul and Basra. Both consulates were closed over security fears, in Mosul, the consulate was closed in 2014 after the Islamic State (IS) overran the compound taking 49 Turkish diplomats’ hostage. The Basra consulate was closed earlier this summer amidst city-wide unrest over the socio-economic conditions throughout the province. Turkey has significant economic and commercial ties with Iraq as well as shared security concerns over the activity of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) along the shared border. While these will all be factors in the decision to reopen the consulates, the decision does also allude to a significant improvement in the security environment in both locations. Local elections in Cote D’Ivoire – On Saturday 13 October, local elections will be held in Côte d’Ivoire. Campaigning has been ongoing for the last couple of weeks and ended on Thursday. The vote will give all the main parties an indication ahead of the 2020 presidential election; and, as such, are likely to be highly competitive. There is a tense political atmosphere which has been fuelled by irregularities in voting preparations. Travellers in the country are advised to strictly avoid all crowds and to be aware of the potential for clashes to occur. Burundi ban on foreign relief agencies – Security forces arrested three aid workers employed by the US-based relief agency, the International Rescue Committee, for defying a recently imposed ban on foreign relief agencies operating without special permission from the Ministry of Public Security. Under new legislation, international non-government organisations must place a third of their country budget in Burundi’s central bank and implement a clear ethnic quota that favours projects supporting the ethnic Hutu communities. Given that all International NGO’s operate under the principles of impartiality, neutrality and independence such regulations are likely to be rejected by the humanitarian community, leading to further arrests of aid workers and the withdrawal of international relief operations throughout the country.

Significant Dates and Events

10-24 October – Nepal – Hindu Dashin Festival
12 October – Brazil – Lady of Aparecida
12 October – Equatorial Guinea – Independence Day.
12 October – Spain – Fiesta Nacional de Espana.
13 October – Burundi – Prince Louis Rwagasore Day
14 October – Georgia – Day of Svetitskovloba
14 October – Tanzania – Mwlimu Nyerere Day
14 October – Yemen – Liberation Day
15 October – Jamaica – National Heroes Day
15 October – Belize – Pan American Day
15 October – Tunisia – Evacuation Day
15 October – Samoa – Lotu a Tamiti Holiday
16 October – India – Maha Saptami
17 October – China – Chung Yeung Festival
17 October – Haiti – Dessalines Day
18 October – Azerbaijan – Independence Day
18 October – Zambia – National Prayer day
19 October – Bangladesh – Durga Puja
20 October – Guatemala – Revolution Day
20 October – Kenya – Mashujaa Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 41 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 40 and 41 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

28 September 18: Coalition Forces Intercept Missile Fired Towards Aden, Yemen. Local media reported the target of the attack was believed to be the coalition’s headquarters in the district of Buraigh, Aden. No casualties were reported. 01 October 18: Coalition Forces Intercept Rigged Speedboats Targeting Jazan Port, Saudi Arabia. Local media have reported two rigged speedboats were destroyed by naval coalition forces. Iranian-Houthi militias are attributed with the attempted attack. 7 October 18: Houthis Seize Fuel and Food Cargo Entering Hodeidah. Regional media reported Houthi forces have prevented ships from unloading cargo, such as fuel and food supplies. Some ships have been held in port for up to 6 months. Aid agencies have called for the UN to push for the release of the cargo and vessels. 9 October 18: Pakistan Navy Leave the Anti-Piracy Combined Task Force. The decision to leave was made after the US-led operation refused to pay for fuel for the patrolling warships as part of a previous agreement. Participating in the task force is voluntary. By distancing themselves, Pakistan will be able to conduct independent patrols from the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Aden. Pakistan’s warming relations with Iran’s military, combined with security agreements with China, may be a growing cause of concern.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

31 August 18: LATE Report – Anchored Vessel Boarded off Kribi, Cameroon. Two intruders were reported seen on the Panama-flagged general cargo ship at 2150LT, in position 2°56’14N, 9°54’27E. The crew raised the alarm and informed the Cameroon navy who deployed a patrol boat to the scene. After searching the ship, one intruder was arrested and handed over to port authorities of Kribi; the other intruder is reported to have escaped the vessel. 30 September 18: MV Boarded in Takoradi Anchorage, Ghana. Two persons boarded the vessel via the anchor chain at 0402UTC, in position 4°54’10N, 1°41’17W. The crew raised the alarm and the intruders left the vessel. No items were reported stolen. The crew and the vessel were safe. 09 October 18: MV Boarded in Takoradi Anchorage, Ghana. One person was reported to board the anchored vessel at 0315UTC, in position 4°53’0N, 1°45’0W. The person left the vessel after being spotted by the security patrol. No items were reported stolen from the vessel. Crew and vessel were reported as safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

25 September 18: MV Boarded in Tanjung Bulat, Johor, Malaysia. Two armed men with swords boarded a mobile offshore drilling rig and robbed two onboard security guards at 1930UTC in position 1°20’2N, 104°14’81E. The two guards were tied up and their personal items and communications equipment stolen. The intruders then departed the rig. The security guards were released by shore-based staff after they failed to radio in. 03 October 18: Fishing Trawler Boarded near Guimaras Island and Negros Occidental, Philippines. The vessel was underway when it was boarded by three armed perpetrators in position 10°19’48N, 122°51E at 2100LT. The men were armed with firearms; two pistols and one M16 rifle. They boarded the fishing trawler from a blue motor banca with “Juvelin” marked on its freeboard. The fishing catch and other valuable materials were stolen from the vessel. The Philippine Coast Guard was informed and two boats were deployed to patrol the area.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 40 and 41 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40

Headlines From This Week

Indonesian Earthquake and Tsunami – On 28 September an earthquake measuring 7.5 magnitude on the Richter scale, struck the central island of Sulawesi in Indonesia. The magnitude and location of the earthquake caused a tsunami and may have contributed towards two volcanic eruptions. The earthquake and subsequent tsunami decimated the city of Palu, displacing tens of thousands of people, and caused the deaths of at least 1,550 others, with at least a thousand more still missing. The rescue operations have been hindered as much of the land in the region is still too wet to manoeuvre on and many roads have been critically damaged. Mud slides and liquefaction have buried entire villages up to three meters deep in mud, as aftershocks of the earthquake measuring up to 6.3 magnitude on the Richter scale have also struck the region. International aid has been arriving but the death toll is likely to continue to climb.
Protests Build in Washington Over Allegations Against Supreme Court Nominee – Following US President Trump’s nomination of the conservative judge Brett Kavanaugh, there have been multiple allegations from women who claim that Mr Kavanaugh sexually assaulted them years ago. There has been an ongoing FBI investigation into the allegations made against Mr Kavanaugh while his application is considered. There have been several large protests around the Capitol building in Washington DC with hundreds arrested during a sit in. Other protests standing in solidarity have occurred in other cities including New York and Philadelphia. The final Senate vote is set for the 6 October.
Failed Macedonian Referendum – Macedonia (FYROM) has been embroiled in a political war with Greece since 1991 over use of the regional name “Macedonia”. An easing of tensions and a highly unpopular agreement to a permanent name change for Macedonia (FYROM) was to be ratified by a national Referendum on the 30 September. However, the turn out was only 37 percent, far below the 50-percent threshold to make the outcome binding.
State of Emergency Continues in Jamaica — The crime levels in Jamaica have reached critical levels. The country has one of the highest murder rates per capita in the world; gang and drug related crimes are an ongoing threat. On 25 September, a state of emergency was declared in Kingston, Jamaica’s capital, as the increased level of criminal activities has exceeded the capacity of law enforcement. Prime Minister Holness stated that enhanced security measures are due to end on the 9 October.
New NAFTA Deal Struck Between US, Canada, and Mexico – Following months of negotiations, sanctions, and increasing tensions, on 1 October the United States, Canada, and Mexico struck a new NAFTA deal (North American Free Trade Agreement). This new deal or NAFTA 2.0 has a number of changes and updates from the old deal which affects multiple areas of trade including; labour, environmental standards, intellectual property protections, and new digital trade legislation. If the deal is approved, it is likely to encourage President Trump that his aggressive trade practises work.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Brazilian Elections – On 7 October Brazil is holding a multitude of elections for regional and central government, including president. The presidential election has been unpredictable and sometimes violent with the frontrunner stabbed during a rally. Corruption and the economy are at the heart of the issues for this election. The divisive right-wing frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro is leading the polls, with the left-wing candidate Fernando Haddad coming in second. Bolsonaro has caused controversy throughout the campaign and has made several discriminatory comments on race, gender, and sexual orientation, as well as a number of remarks expressing support for the country’s former military government. If no candidate wins a majority, then the two leading candidates will head to a runoff vote which is expected to take place on the 28 October.
Cameroon Presidential Election – Also on 7 October, eight of Cameroon’s ten regions will head to the polls for a presidential election that may end the dynasty of incumbent Paul Biya. President Biya has been in power since 1982 and was prime minister for seven years before that. Cameroon faces security issues in multiple regions. Boko Haram in the north, rebel incursions from the east, and separatists in the south-western English-speaking regions. The separatists have vowed violence if the election is held in their territory, while government have confirmed the election will go ahead in the regions. Violence on election day is likely in contested territories.
National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan) – The National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan), also referred to as Double Tenth Day is the national day of Taiwan. This day marks the start of the Wuchang Uprising of 10 October 1911. The revolt was a turning point for China as it saw the collapse of the Ching (Qing) Dynasty that had been in place since 1644. The revolt led to the founding of the Republic of China, until it lost mainland China in 1949. The day is celebrated by large parades, rallies, and other cultural events. The city is often illuminated with lanterns and fireworks.
Bosnia-Herzegovina Elections – On 7 October, Bosnia-Herzegovina will hold elections for a plethora of ethno-political establishments which helped to end the 1992-95 war but now make for an exceptionally complicated electoral system. On election day, 3.5 million voters will choose; a national parliament, three members of the national presidency, the parliaments of the country’s two political major entities the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) and the predominantly Bosniak and Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – and then 11 other regional assemblies. The over complicated devolution of the government makes any reforms almost impossible, as getting all different assemblies to agree is highly unlikely. In the past, external powers including the EU and UK, tried to help liberalise an economy hobbled by its own political complexity. However, there are now several internal regional leaders who have open backing from Russia, meaning that further external meddling is likely.

Significant Dates and Events

05 October – Portugal – Republic Day
05 October – Cambodia – Teacher’s march in Phnom Penh
06 October – Latvia – Legislative elections
06 October – South Korea – Woman’s Rally in Seoul
06-07 October – Egypt – Armed Forces Day
06 October – Malaysia – Birthday of the Governor of Sabah
07 October – Brazil – General election
07 October – Cameroon – Presidential election
08 October – Spain – New Anti-Pollution protocol in Madrid
08 October – Bahamas – National Heroes Day
08 October – Croatia – Independence Day
08 October – Cambodia – Ancestors Day
08 October – Ecuador – Independence of Guayaquil
09 October – Uganda – Independence Day
10 October – Fiji – Independence Day
10 October – Taiwan – Double Tenth Day
10 October – Cuba – Independence Day
10 October – Curacao – Curacao Day
10 October – North Korea – Party Foundation Day
10-24 October – Nepal – Hindu Dashin Festival
11 October – Macedonia – Revolution Day
12 October – Brazil – Lady of Aparecida
12 October – Equatorial Guinea – Independence Day.
12 October – Spain – Fiesta Nacional de Espana.
13 October – Burundi – Prince Louis Rwagasore Day
14 October – Georgia – Day of Svetitskovloba
14 October – Tanzania – Mwlimu Nyerere Day
14 October – Yemen – Liberation Day
15 October – Jamaica – National Heroes Day
15 October – Belize – Pan American Day
15 October – Tunisia – Evacuation Day
15 October – Samoa – Lotu a Tamiti Holiday

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 39

Headlines From This Week

Protests in Basra – On 23 September, the Basra Protest Coordination Committee organised a rally in Basra to denounce the shortage of potable water and lack of services in the province. Since the beginning of July, angry residents have regularly taken to the streets to protest the government’s shortcomings. Anti-government demonstrations have recurrently turned violent resulting in government buildings being damaged. On 25 September, masked gunmen shot dead a human rights activist who had been involved in organising a number of demonstrations. Experts claim that this assassination threatens to further deteriorate tensions in Basra.
Wildfire in Pisa Triggers Airport Evacuations – On 24 September, a wildfire erupted in Pisa province in the Italian region of Tuscany. The fire broke out in Mount Serra and then spread to the towns of Calci, Montemagno and San Lorenzo e la Torre. On 25 September, 700 people around the worst hit areas were evacuated and officials at Pisa International Airport (PSA) ordered the evacuation and closure of the airport. Both inbound and outbound flights were cancelled. Airport operations resumed as normal in the evening of 26 September.
State of Emergency Declared in Jamaica — Crime in Jamaica is a growing problem. The country has one of the highest murder rates per capita in the world; gang and drug related crimes are an ongoing threat. On 25 September, a state of emergency was declared in Kingston, Jamaica’s capital, as the increased level of criminal activities has exceeded the capacity of law enforcement. Prime Minister Andrew Holness stated that enhanced security measures will last for 14 days.
Malaria Outbreak in Colombia – On 26 September, health officials reported a new outbreak of malaria in Norte de Santander, a department of Colombia bordering Venezuela. Over the past six months an estimated 1728 cases have been detected which is double the number of cases reported in 2017. The World Health Organization stated that the recent outbreak has been attributed to the migrants fleeing crisis-hit Venezuela where malaria is currently spreading. In addition to this, health authorities in Colombia fear possible outbreaks of measles and diphtheria.
Typhoon Trami – The 2018 typhoon season has been particularly active. After Jebi and Mangkhut, Super Typhoon Trami is the third typhoon heading for Asia. According to the joint Typhoon Warning Center, Trami is expected to make landfall on Ruyuku Islands, south of Japan, on 28 September. The storm poses the threat of heavy rain, sea surges and inland flooding. Weather experts also warn of widespread travel-related disruption across the country. Japan Meteorological Agency has issued weather advisories in a number of prefectures and areas that include Kagoshima, Okinawa, Amami and Tokara.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Oktoberfest – Oktoberfest is the world’s largest beer festival which takes place annually from mid-September in the German city of Munich. This year it will take place from 22 September through to 7 October. This festival is an important component of the Bavarian culture and celebrates the variety of beers in the region. Oktoberfest has been held since 1810 and each year attracts thousands of people around the world. In 2017 it counted 7,200,000 visitors. Alongside beer and food stalls, the festival’s attractions include a funfair and parades of historic costumes.
Pro-independence events in Catalonia – On 1 October, a number of events will take place in Catalonia almost a year after the controversial referendum that contributed to Spain’s most recent political crisis. Catalonia is an autonomous region in the Iberian Peninsula which accounts for a fifth of the country’s GDP. Catalonia’s call for independence grew at a steady rate until the 2008 financial crisis in the eurozone fuelled separatism. The issue of independence remains discordant in Catalonia, with surveys suggesting residents are almost evenly divided on whether to stay part of Spain.
Thanksgiving Holiday in Oromia Region – Ireecha is the Thanksgiving holiday that is celebrated by the Oromo People in Ethiopia to thank God for the blessings received throughout the year. This day is celebrated at the sacred grounds of Bishoftu and Oromia on 01 October which, this year, marks the end of the rainy winter season. According to local folklore, June to September are times of difficulty for Oromo People and because of this, during Irreecha, people gather outside their houses and celebrate with rituals and prayers. Oromo People are Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group and have been fighting the government for decades as they have long felt marginalised. Protests and violence are a common occurrence in Oromia region.
North Korea’s National Foundation Day – National Foundation Day, also called Gaecheonjeol, is a public holiday in South Korea on 03 October. This holiday celebrates the creation of the first Korean state of Gojoseon in 2333 BC. Traditionally this date marks the foundation of the “Korean ethnic nationalism”, an ideology that unifies North and South Korea under the same ethnic identity. Each year on National Foundation Day ceremonies are held in places of worship. In this day, it is common for government leaders to conduct political speeches. Even though it is not a public holiday, this day is also celebrated in North Korea with a traditional ceremony at the Mausoleum of Tangun, an ancient burial site in Pyongyang.
DMK demonstrations in Tamil Nadu State – Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a political party active in the state of Tamil Nadu and Union Territory of Puducherry, has called on supporters to demonstrate across the state on 03-04 October. The protest is to denounce alleged corruption by the ruling All India Ann Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) party.

Significant Dates and Events

29 September – Burkina Faso – National Holiday. Commemoration of the end of the failed coup d’état.
29 September to 1 October — Ethiopia – Irreechaa Thanksgiving holiday celebrated in Oromia region
29 September – Germany – Oktoberfest starts in Munich
29 September – Paraguay – Public Holiday
29 September – Burkina Faso – Anti-government protests nationwide
29 September – Kosovo – Protest against land swap deals in Pristina
30 September – Botswana – Botswana Day
30 September – Cameroon – Unification Day
30 September – Russia – Formula 1 Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
30 September – Sao Tome e Principle — Agricultural Reform Day
30 September – Macedonia (FYROM) – Name change protests in Skopje
30 September – Italy – Anti-government protests in Rome
01 October to 07 October – China – National Day Golden Week holiday
01 October – Ethiopia – Irreecha festivities
01 October – Thailand – Public van drivers protest in Bangkok
01 October – Nigeria – Independence Day
01 October – Uzbekistan – Teacher’s Day
01 October – Spain – Pro-independence events in Catalonia
01 October – Italy – Air Italy strike at Olbia Airport (Sardinia)
02 October – Guinea – Independence Day
03 October – Germany — Day of German Unity
03 October – Iraq – Iraqi Independence Day
03 October – South Korea – National Foundation Day
03 October to 04 October – India – DMK demonstrations in Tamil Nadu state
04 October – Iran – Martyrdom Imam Jafar Sadegh
04 October – Italy – Feast of St. Petronius, patron saint of Bologna (Public celebrations in the city)
04 October – Lesotho – Independence Day
04 October – Mozambique – Pace and National Reconciliation Day
05 October – Portugal – Republic Day
05 October – Cambodia – Teacher’s march in Phnom Penh

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 39 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 39 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

20 September 18: MV Approached in Lagos Anchorage, Nigeria. Two boats approached the MV at 2345UTC in position 6°16’51N, 3°13’16E. At 2358UTC, two unauthorised persons were sighted on the main deck. When challenged, they escaped using a rope tied on board. No items were reported stolen. 22 September 18: Bulk Carrier Attacked by Pirates 54nm Southwest of Bonny Island, Nigeria. The vessel was underway on its transit from Lagos to Port Harcourt when it was attacked by pirates in a speedboat at 0450LT in position 3°37’0N, 6°40’0E. The embarked Nigerian Navy security team fired warning shots twice, resulting in the pirates breaking their pursuit of the vessel. 22 September 18: Vessel Attacked 45nm Southwest of Bonny Island, Nigeria. An underway bulk carrier Glavus was attacked by armed pirates at 0505UTC in position 3°45’32N, 6°43’1E. The master raised the alarm, increased speed and carried out anti-piracy measures. After a prolonged chase, pirates boarded the vessel using long ladders. They cut the wire on deck to gain access to the vessel and eventually the bridge. Communications equipment was destroyed and between 12 to 19 crew members were kidnapped. The nationalities of the crew members includes Philippines, Slovenia, Ukraine, Romania, Croatia and Bosnia. The Nigerian Navy despatched a patrol boat to assist the vessel. Remaining crew sailed the vessel under naval escort to safe anchorage. 25 September 18: Tanker Attacked by Pirates 100nm Southwest of Bonny Island, Nigeria. Armed pirates in a speedboat attacked the vessel at 1151UTC in position 2°45’55N, 6°39’19E. The speedboat had seven persons on board, and shots were fired at the vessel. A local security vessel arrived and fired warning shots. The speedboat moved away in a southwest direction. Crew and vessel were reported as safe. 25 September 2018: MV Boarded in Pointe Noire Anchorage, Congo. The vessel was in position 4°41’0S, 11°45’6E at 0100UTC when it was boarded by two robbers armed with knives. The alarm was raised and ship property was reported stolen.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

18 September 2018: Vessel Boarded in Sandakan, Malaysia. The Malta-flagged bulk carrier was boarded via the port side anchor chain whilst at berth in position 5°45’45N, 118°4’9E at 2015UTC. Another two accomplices were waiting in a craft nearby. No items were reported stolen. 18 September 2018: Underway Tanker Boarded by Robbers, Singapore Straits. The LPG tanker was boarded in position 1°14’87N, 103°57’92E at 2145UTC, Westbound lane of TSS. Three persons were sighted at the stern of the ship. The chief engineer sustained injuries to his face and hands after being confronted with the perpetrators when they stole his gold chain. The alarm was raised and the robbers escaped. The remaining crew were reported safe. 18 September 2018: Armed Robbers Board Anchored Bulk Carrier in Muara Berau Anchorage, Indonesia. The armed robbers boarded the vessel twice in three hours at 1915UTC in position 0°14’20S, 117°39’40E. On both occasions, the duty watchman noticed the robbers on the forecastle deck and raised the alarm. The robbers escaped with ships stores. Indonesian Marine Police and Indonesian Navy were informed, and an investigation on board took place.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 39 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38

Headlines From This Week

Protests in Ethiopia – Thousands of people marched in Addis Ababa on 17 September to denounce the deadly ethnic violence on the outskirts of the capital. The civil unrest caused traffic disruption and businesses were forced to shut. Reports state that five demonstrators were killed in clashes that erupted with security personnel. This unrest coincides with an unprecedented political relaxation under new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed. With the president having invited many Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) leaders to return to Ethiopia from exile on 15 September.
Inter-Korea Summit in Pyongyang – From 18 to 20 September the third Inter-Korea summit took place in Pyongyang. The meeting, the third so far this year, between Moon Jae-in, President of South Korea, and Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, and Supreme Leader of North Korea, was to address ways to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula and continue the dialogue for denuclearisation.
Storm Ali Triggers Weather Warnings across the UK – The MET office issued weather warnings for the whole of the UK this week after Storm Ali swept through the country. Winds of up to 102 mph triggered loss of power and mobile phone signals. High winds have also impacted flight schedules, causing cancellations in multiple airports throughout the United Kingdom. Two fatalities have been confirmed; in Ireland, a woman died when her caravan was blown off a cliff, while a man in his twenties was killed by a falling tree in County Armagh. Storm Ali comes after months of unsettling weather, such as the hottest summer on record.
Shooting in Mexico City on Independence Day Weekend – Three gunman disguised as traditional mariachi musicians killed five people and wounded eight others in Garibaldi Plaza, an iconic tourism attraction in Mexico City on 15 September. After the attack the gunmen fled the scene on motorbikes. Reports suggest that the attack was targeted to a specific restaurant by an organised group. At present, police have two people in custody and more arrests are expected as the investigation continues. Official figures show that in Mexico City, crime levels have increased since 2006, when the government declared war on organised crime.
Vietnamese President Dies of Illness – Vietnam President Tran Dai Quang has died at the age of 61 after a prolonged viral illness on 21 September. The country’s number two after the ruling Communist Party leader, died at the National Military Hospital in Hanoi after he fell into a coma. Quang appeared unwell when he last appeared in public at a meeting with the ruling Communist Party and a reception for a foreign delegation last week. National media suggests that Vietnam’s National Assembly is scheduled to convene a session in the coming weeks where a new president will be elected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Election in Osun State — Nigeria’s Osun State Elections will be held on 22 September to decide which local governor will be elected for the region. The ruling APC party (All Progressive Party) seek to retain power with the opposition PDP (People’s Democratic Party). These elections have previously led to widespread violence in the state and recently a local senator, who was also thought to be a frontrunner in the campaign was murdered. On 21 September candidates from both parties signed an agreement to ensure honest and transparent elections.
Nationwide demonstrations in Niger – Civil society groups and opposition parties have called for nationwide demonstrations on 23 September to denounce the 2018 Finance Act. Protests are often held in Niger against taxes and they often turn violent. It is one of the world’s poorest nations and its economy has been badly hit by falls in oil prices, of which it is a major exporter. Local media reports that protesters will gather in the main cities especially in the capital Niamey.
Protests in Basra – The Basra Protest Coordination Committee called for a large protest to be held on 23 September in Basra, to denounce the government’s delayed response to their requests regarding better water services and the release of individuals arrested during past demonstrations. Protests in the Iraqi city of Basra have seen an escalation of violence. Since the first wave of protests in July 2018, residents have denounced water and electricity shortages and the corruption among official authorities. Media reports that several people have been killed and government buildings such as the Iranian consulate, set on fire.
Saudi Arabia’s National Day – Saudi Arabian National day is always celebrated on 23 September since 1932, and marks when King Abdulaziz announced the unification of the nation as a kingdom. Saudi National Day is celebrated all over the nation with traditional celebrations. It is common to see roads and buildings decorated with flags.
Anti-Erdogan Rally – The German Federation of Journalists and Amnesty International are set to hold a joint protest against Turkish president Erdogan during his official state visit in Berlin on 28 of September. Several activists groups and politicians have highly criticised Berlin’s decision to host the Turkish President, especially in light of Turkey’s crackdown on political dissenters and censorship, and breach of freedom of expression.

Significant Dates and Events

20-27 September – Azerbaijan – Judo: World Championships in Baku
22 September – Mali – Independence Day
22 September – Nigeria – Election in Osun state region
22 September – Poland – Trade unions to demonstrate in Warsaw
22 September – Russia – Trade workers protest in Yekaterinburg
22 September – Brazil – Anti-abortion activists to demonstrate in Fortaleza
22-23 September – United Kingdom – TfL service disruption between Paddington and Heathrow, London
22 September – 06 October – Cameroon – Electoral campaign begins
23 September – Austria — The 2018 UCI Road World Championships Austria in Innsbruck
23 September – Maldives — Presidential election
23 September – Saudi Arabia – National Day
23 September – Niger – Nationwide demonstrations against 2018 Finance Act
23 September – Mexico – Disruption to water supply in Mexico City
23 September – Romania – Anti-government protests in Bucharest
23 September – Afghanistan – Protests in Basra
24 September – Guinea Bissau – National Day
24 September – China – Mid-Autumn festival
24 September – Spain – Protests in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, over pension reforms
25 September – Argentina – General nationwide strike
27 September – Curaçao – Gay Pride Parade
28-30 September – France – 2018 Ryder Cup at le Golf National in Paris
28 September – Germany – Anti-Erdogan rally in Berlin
28 September – Italy – Aviation workers to strike in Milan and Bologna
28 September – Saudi Arabia – Boxing: World Boxing Super Series Final WBA super-middleweight title

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: 20180921 – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 38 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

11 September 18: US and UK Navies Conduct Countermine Exercises. The exercise will take place off Djibouti, with the focus on the key choke point of the Bab el Mandeb strait. 15 September 18: Saudis Destroy Houthi Missiles Fired at Jizan Province. The missile was reported to be targeting Jizan Industrial City, however other reports suggest the target to be the Saudi Aramco oil facility. Houthi missiles are regularly reported to be fired across the border in retaliation to the ongoing airstrikes by coalition forces in Yemen. 18 September 18: 18 Fishermen Killed by Coalition Forces Off Al Khoukha, Yemen. Major media have reported a frigate attacked a fishing boat off the port of Al Khouka, killing all on board. The accusation has been denied by coalition forces. Al Khoukha currently remains under UAE military control.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

8 September 18: LATE REPORT – Clash Between Security Forces and Local Armed Group, Bonny River. On routine patrol along the Isaka/Okrika waterways, State Marine Police patrol intercepted and exchanged gunshots with unidentified armed men in a speedboat. According to police, two pirates were killed and two others arrested. Their weapons and ammunition were also seized. 17 September 18: MV Boarded in Conakry Anchorage, Guinea. The anchored vessel was boarded in location 9°20’48N, 13°34’32W at 03:10UTC. Four armed persons boarded using the anchor chain and departed the vessel after 30 minutes.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 September 2018: Container Ship Boarded by Armed Persons in Chittagong Anchorage, Bangladesh. Two robbers armed with knives boarded the anchored Liberia-flagged vessel in position 20°6’6N, 91°46’55E at 16:30UTC. Duty crew noticed the robbers and informed the master, who then raised the alarm. Hearing the alarm the pirates escaped. After a search, it was reported ship’s properties were stolen. 10 September 2018: LATE REPORT – Tanker Boarded in Tarahan Jetty, Indonesia. Two robbers boarded the Saudi-flagged chemical tanker at position 5°31’43S, 105°20’58E at 19:30UTC. The duty watchman noticed them and raised the alarm. The robbers escaped and no stolen items were reported. 11 September 2018: Bulk Carrier Boarded in Sandakan Port, Sabah, Malaysia. The incident occurred in position 5°48’5N, 118°4’9E at 20:15UTC. Alert duty crew spotted the robbers and notified the master. The crew made their way forward to the deck to investigate. The robbers escaped in their speed boat and the incident was reported to the local authority. 16 September 2018: Suspicious Approach on Underway Tanker, 4nm SW of Balabac Island, Philippines. Two skiffs approached an asphalt tanker whilst it was underway in position 7°45’14N, 117°3’95E at 03:15UTC. The alarm was raised and crew mustered. The persons on board were reported by the master to be wearing masks. Evasive manoeuvres were commenced. After five minutes the skiffs aborted their approach and moved to another vessel in the vicinity. The master informed the other vessel of the approaching skiffs by VHF. 16 September 2018: Militants Free Three Indonesian Hostages, Southern Philippines. According to local reports, the men were kidnapped in early 2017 by Abu Sayyaf militants, off Sabah state. The men were freed with the help of the Moro National Liberation Front, a rebel group which has signed a peace deal with the Philippine government in Sulu province.

Click link to Download PDF: 20180920 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 38 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 37

Headlines From This Week

Hurricane Florence – Hurricane Florence is the first major hurricane of the 2018 hurricane season to hit the United States. Florence has now been downgraded to category one but is still expected to bring sustained windspeeds of up to 60mph and up to 40 inches of rain in some areas. 1.7 million people are currently under mandatory evacuation orders. North and South Carolina are expected to be the worst affected areas as Hurricane Florence is expected to stall along the coast close to Wilmington, North Carolina, bringing storm surges up to 13 foot between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout in addition to widespread flooding.

Nangarhar bomb attack – Reports indicate that at least 68 people have been killed and 165 others wounded following a suicide bomb attack in Momandara district, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, along the main highway between the regional capital Jalalabad and the Torkham border with Pakistan. The Taliban has denied any involvement in the attack and no other group has claimed responsibility, although an affiliate of the Islamic State group is active in Nangarhar province and has carried out similar attacks in the past. If the death toll is confirmed, it will be one of Afghanistan’s deadliest terror attacks this year.

Typhoon Mangkhut – Hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated throughout the northern Philippines ahead of Super Typhoon Mangkhut which is currently 550 miles wide and has maximum sustained wind speeds of 173 miles per hour. The eye of the hurricane is expected to hit the northern island of Luzon on 15 September. Mangkhut has already caused widespread flooding and power outages in the American territory of Guam and 80% of the island is still without power. Thousands of troops have been placed on high alert to assist with search and rescue efforts.

Thawing Korea relations – North and South Korea have opened a liaison office, the first of its kind since the peninsula was divided at the end of World War II in 1945. The office is located on the North’s side of the border with the aim to facilitate better communication between the two governments ahead of their leaders’ three-day summit in Pyongyang next week. Prior to the opening of the office, the two Korea’s relied on telephone and fax-like communication which was often cut during times of increased tension.

Tripoli airport attack – A previously unknown group, the Tripoli Youth Movement, has claimed responsibility for a rocket attack targeting Mitiga International Airport. There were no reports of any injuries or damage at the airport, which only opened on 7 September following heavy fighting in Tripoli between rival armed groups vying for control in the cities southern districts. The group has demanded that control of the airport which is currently operated by the internationally-recognised Government National Accord (GNA), be handed back to civilian authorities. All flights into Mitiga Airport are currently being rerouted.

What To Look Out For Next Week

15 September – Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica – Independence Day celebrations will be held throughout South America to commemorate independence from Spain in 1821. The day is marked by flag raisings, patriotic displays and a national holiday. All schools will be closed, and children often perform a theatrical re-enactment. Public services are likely to be disrupted, particularly in regional and national capitals where major public festivities will be held.
Maldives Election – The popular tourist island is due to hold president elections on 23 September. President Abdulla Yameen is seeking a second five-year term, amid deep political turmoil and instability, that has seen protesters, journalists and supreme court justices arrested and imprisoned since February 2018. Opposition candidates do not believe the election will be free and fair, a charge the government denies. Protests are likely to occur during the election period, which frequently turn violent. Security forces are likely to use force to disperse any large protests.
Yom Kippur – Yom Kippur or “Day of Atonement” is the most sacred and solemn day in the Jewish calendar. It will begin on the evening of 18 September and conclude the evening of 19 September 2018. During Yom Kippur, Jews will attend synagogue and ask for forgiveness for sins committed over the past year. Five prayer services are held: Maariv, Shacharit, Musaf, Minchah, and Neilah. During Yom Kippur Jews are not permitted to work. Travel in and around Israel will be severely disrupted, all airports are closed for the duration of the holiday, and land borders with neighbouring states are also closed. Heightened security measures are likely, and Palestinian groups may seek to conduct attacks through the holiday period.
EU Leaders Summit – European Union leaders are set to discuss whether to hold a special summit on Brexit in November 2018, following a meeting in Salzburg, Austria. The summit is part of the Leaders’ Agenda and it will focus on internal security in the hope of upgrading police and judicial cooperation as well as strengthening border security and resilience in cyberspace.
Niamey protests – Protests are likely to occur outside the Tribunal de Grande Instance in Niamey on 18 September as the trial of several prominent civil society activists is set to resume. A number of activists were arrested and jailed in March 2018 after taking park in an unauthorised demonstration against the controversial 2018 budget law, which increases taxes on housing and electricity. Police are likely to respond to any protests during the trial with force which may result in injuries or fatalities.

Significant Dates and Events

06 September to 18 October – Argentina – 2018 Summer Youth Olympics in Buenos Aires
11 to 23 September – United States – World Equestrian Games in Mill Spring, North Carolina
14 to 16 September – Singapore Formula One race, road closures expected
14 to 18 September – Italy – Bologna Airport to close for maintenance
15 September – Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica – Independence Day
15 September – Nigeria – Pre-election rallies to be held in Ilorin, Kwara State
15 September – Greece – Anti-fascist rally in Athens
15 September – Mali – Opposition protests planed in Bamako
15 September – Azerbaijan – Military parade in Baku, travel disruption likely
16 September – Mexico – Independence Day
16 September – South Korea – Anti-refugee rally in Seoul
16 September – Papua New Guinea – Independence Day
16 September – Germany – pro-refugee protests in Cologne
17 September – Italy – COTRAL bus workers to strike in Lazio region
17-18 September – Israel – West Bank and Gaza border crossings closed
17 September – Austria – Protests against EU climate policy in Linz
19 September – Nepal – RJP led opposition rallies nationwide
19 September – DRC – Pro-opposition march in Kinshasa
20-21 September – Islamic Majority Countries – Ashura events likely to cause nationwide disruption
20-21 September – Portugal – Nationwide nurses’ strike
21 September – Malawi – Pro- and anti-government protests planned nationwide
22-31 September – Israel – Border-crossings with Gaza and the West Bank to be closed
22 September – Spain – Pensioners rally in Madrid
26 September – Mexico – Marches against “disappearances” planned in Tijuana
28 September – Europe – Ryanair air crew to strike
29 September – Burkina Faso – Nationwide opposition protests planned
30 September – UK – Eurostar workers to strike at St Pancras
30 September – Macedonia (FYROM) – Name change referendum, nationwide disruption likely
30 September – Iraq – Regional elections to be held in Iraqi Kurdistan

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 37 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 37 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 36 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

07 September 18: WBIED Seized by Saudi-led Coalition. Yemeni national forces, supported by the Saudi-led international coalition, intercepted a remote-controlled water-borne improvised explosive device in the Red Sea. The device was built into the hull of a speedboat, and reached speeds of 35kts. It is highly likely that the Houthi sought to target Saudi/UAE vessels with the device. There were no indications of other Houthi vessels in the vicinity of the device, possibly indicating that this version of WBIED has a longer stand-off range than devices deployed in late 2017/early 2018, which were generally controlled from a nearby mothership. September 18: Increased small boat activity. Vessels transiting the HRA reported a significant increase in small boat activity. This increase has likely been driven by the end of the monsoon season. The improving sea conditions may permit an increase in criminal use of small boats in the region.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

10 September 18: Militants Assaulted National Oil Corporation, Tripoli. A group of Islamic State insurgents attacked the NOC in Tripoli. At least four people, including two of the attackers, were killed. It remains unclear if the previous armed unrest set the conditions which enabled the attack.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

05 September 18: Nigerian Navy Deployed New Vessels. The Nigerian Navy inaugurated and deployed 16 new vessels, including coastal patrol boats and high-speed RHIBs. The vessels were immediately deployed to patrol areas around key oil installations in the Niger Delta. The deterrent effect of these vessels in coastal waters may drive thieves and pirates to conduct more ambitious attacks in deep water.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

04 August 18: LATE REPORT – Armed Robbery from Tanker near Sarawak. A tanker underway at 03°24’N 112°54’E was boarded by armed robbers at 2300LT. The attackers stole cash and personal belongings, before fleeing within 20 minutes. No crew were harmed. Perpetrators arrested by police on 17 August. 10 September 18: Armed Kidnap near Semporna. A fishing vessel underway at 04°40’N 118°43’E was boarded by armed kidnappers in the early hours, who boarded their vessel from a speedboat. Two crew members were taken, as they were unable to hide in time. Remaining crew saw the kidnappers depart in the direction of Philippine waters. 11 September 18: Fishermen Kidnapped off Sabah. Three fishermen were reported kidnapped at 0100LT. The attack occurred whilst their vessel was docked at Pulau Gaya. Local law enforcement are investigating the possibility of Philippine groups being responsible.

Iran to Move Primary Oil Terminal. The Iranian government announced its intent to establish a new oil terminal on the coast of the Oman Sea. This move would place the terminal outside the Straits of Hormuz, reducing Iranian dependence on the strategically contested waterway.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 36 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 36 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36

Headlines From This Week

Tripoli Ceasefire Agreed – After 10 days of fighting in the Libyan capital, a tentative ceasefire overseen by the UN’s Libya envoy, was agreed between rival militias on 05 September. During the fighting, hundreds of prisoners escaped and at least 50 people have been killed. The ceasefire is unlikely to hold, especially considering that elections are due to be held in December. One previously agreed truce was almost immediately broken and minor violations of this ceasefire have also been reported.

Novichok Poisonings – The US, France, Germany and Canada have supported the UK’s assessment that Russia’s government “almost certainly” approved the Salisbury Novichok poisoning. The British government has named the two men it says are responsible; they are believed to be from Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU. Russia has dismissed the evidence as “lies”. This is further evidence of the growing split between Russia and the West, with tensions rising.

Environmental Disasters in Japan – Japan was hit by twin environmental disasters this week. On 06 September, a 6.7-magnitude earthquake hit the northern island of Hokkaido, killing at least 16, leaving 26 missing, and shutting off power for half of the island’s residents. Two days before the quake, Typhoon Jebi, the strongest storm to hit the country in 25 years, left a trail of destruction and at least 10 fatalities. The major international airport at Kansai, which serves Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto, was closed due to flooding but has since reopened for domestic flights only. The airport also reported the strongest winds in Japanese history at 209kph.

Brazilian Presidential Candidate Stabbed – Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right and populist front-runner for the October presidential election in Brazil, was stabbed while at a rally in the state Minas Gerais on 06 September. Doctors expect the controversial politician to make a full recovery after suffering injuries to his intestines. Police have reported that they arrested the attacker who appears to be mentally disturbed. The election campaign has been bitterly fought with Bolsonaro’s greatest rival, ex-President Lula, imprisoned and forbidden to run.

Protests Re-Erupt in Iraq – After a period of calm, a fresh outbreak of violent unrest has erupted in Iraq, notably in the southern city of Basra. At least one person has been killed and 35 injured during the protests over poor public services which began again on 04 September. In a potentially related event, mortars were fired into Baghdad’s Green Zone, which houses Iraqi government officials and the US Embassy; no casualties or damage were reported. Further violent unrest should be expected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Swedish Elections – Sweden will go to the polls on 09 September 2018 to elect new members for the country’s parliament, the Riksdag. Early voting has already begun in the election. The Swedish Democrats, which has been described as a far-right, populist party, is on the ascendancy, with implications for political and economic stability; the Swedish Krona has already weakened against the Euro. Depending on the election result, there is a risk that Sweden will not have a government in place for an extended time period.

Russian War Games – From 11 to 15 September, Russia will host the Vostok-2018 war games alongside units from Mongolia and China. This is set to be Russia’s largest war games, with 300,000 personnel involved, since 1981. Activities will be taking place in the country’s east and is a further sign of growing tension with the west. Moscow has claimed the drills are justified.

Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashana) – Jews around the world will celebrate the Jewish New Year from 09 September to 11 September. Much time is spent at synagogues on this religious holiday, meaning disruption here is possible. Security measures are set to be stepped up in Israel particularly. Border crossings with the Palestinian territories are to be closed and a heightened security presence is expected at these locations.

Catalonia National Day – 11 September marks the National Day of Catalonia in Spain. It is a day-long festival which commemorates the fall of Barcelona during the War of Spanish Succession. Travellers can expect significant unrest in Catalonia on this day, with well-attended protests expected in Barcelona as well as other large Catalan cities. On 09 September, anti-secessionist activists will march from Avenida del Paralelo to Plaza de España. Previous protests have seen clashes between protesters and security officials.

Islamic New Year (Muharram) – The first day of the Islamic year is 11 September, with the New Year technically beginning at sunset on 10 September. Disruption should be expected, particularly within the vicinity of mosques, as many Muslim-majority nations hold public holidays. For Shia Muslims in particular, the New Year is a time of pilgrimage.

Biafra General Strike – A pro-Biafra Independence Group, the Indigenous People of Biafra, has announced a general strike for 14 September to take place in areas of Nigeria where the Biafra people are present. This is predominantly the south and southeast of Nigeria. The strike is not expected to occur with protests but this cannot be ruled out. The date has been organised as a day of mourning for those who have died since the restoration of the independence movement in 2015.

Significant Dates and Events

06 September to 18 October – Argentina – 2018 Summer Youth Olympics in Buenos Aires
08 September – France – Pro-environmental rallies in Paris and Lyon
08 September – Germany – Anti-surveillance law protest in Hannover
08 September – Spain – LGBT+ Pride parade in Benidorm
08 September – Macedonia (FYROM) – Independence Day
08 September – Bangladesh – Opposition BNP to stage nationwide protests
09 September – India – Akali Dal group to rally in Abohar
09 September – Russia – Nationwide rallies against pension reform
09 September – Dominican Republic – Anti-abortion rally in Santo Domingo
09 September – St Lucia – Anti-government march planned in Castries
09 September – North Korea – National Day
09 September – Tajikistan – Independence Day
09 September – Indonesia – Bali Marathon
10 September – Belize – George’s Caye Day
10 September – Gibraltar – Gibraltar National Day
10 September – Romania – Anti-Corruption Rally in Bucharest
10 September – Costa Rica – ANEP trade union calls for nationwide general strike
10 September – India – Opposition group calls for nationwide strike
10 to 11 September – Italy – Airport staff to conduct nationwide strike
10 to 13 September – Russia – Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok
11 September – United States – Anniversary of 2011 terror attack on the World Trade Centre, New York
11 to 13 September – Vietnam – World Economic Forum on ASEAN in Hanoi
11 to 23 September – United States – World Equestrian Games in Mill Spring, North Carolina
13 September – Austria – Pro-refugee rally to be held in Vienna
14 to 16 September – Formula One race in Singapore – road closures expected
14 to 18 September – Italy – Bologna Airport to close for maintenance
15 September – Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica – Independence Day
16 September – Mexico – Independence Day
16 September – Papua New Guinea – Independence Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 36. The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 36 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

One Day Ahead Challenge: Supporting the Tour of Britain

Solace Global will provide tracking support to Phil Jones, the managing director of Brother UK, who will ride the entire 2018 OVO Energy Tour of Britain route one day ahead of the race with cancer survivor and cycling world record holder James Golding. With Solace Global’s tracking app, downloadable from the App Store (Solace Secure), the support team and fans alike can keep track of where Phil and James are on each route of the challenge.

The Challenge

To raise £50,000 for the Dave Rayner Fund, a voluntary organisation supporting young British riders in their dream of turning professional. Some of Britain’s most successful cyclists, including Grand Tour stage winners Adam Yates (Mitchelton-SCOTT) and David Millar enjoyed the support of the fund at a critical stage in their careers.

This year Solace Global has supported Vitus Pro Cycling, a professional UK-based cycle team. The team Director Sportive Cherie Pridham, the only female team owner and manager in the British peloton, will support Phil Jones MBE’s Tour of Britain One Day Ahead fundraising ride as sporting director.

Pridham, who rode 10 Grand Tours in an era of epic races for the women’s sport, and whose managerial expertise has yielded victories in some of the most prestigious races on the domestic calendar, including the Lincoln Grand Prix, will be a vital presence in the convoy of support vehicles for Jones’ 1,140-kilometre ride.

Solace Global

Solace Global protect thousands of people and assets all over the world, with 24/7 intelligence, tracking, assistance, in-country support and response services. In recent years, as global threats have become less predictable, even employees being sent to traditionally ‘safe’ destinations need security preparation, pushing risk management, resilience and duty of care into the limelight for their client base, which includes Corporates, NGO’s, HNWs, Scholastics, Media Groups and Insurers.

Solace Global build bespoke travel risk management solutions to support Duty of Care delivery, a comprehensive approach that extends even to tactical, on-the-ground support when environments become unworkable, and which empower businesses to operate in complex environments. They protect people, assets and reputation, and enable business continuity.

Emily Roberts, Managing Director of Solace Global Risk, said:

“We are delighted to support Phil (Jones) and James (Golding) on their ride for such a worthwhile cause. We got involved with Vitus Pro Cycling as road cycling’s demographic is in perfect alignment with the demographic of people we want to speak to in our business. This road has led us to supporting a great cause and enables us to raise the profile of The Dave Rayner Fund as well as our own business in support of someone who has committed an incredible amount of time and energy to the sport. Good luck!”

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35

Headlines From This Week

Widespread Far-Right Protests, Germany – Germany experienced widespread neo-Nazi protests between 29 and 31 August, focussed predominantly on regional capitals. The majority of these rallies were matched by anti-fascist or left-wing counter-protests, and a heavy police presence. Despite police efforts, violence was reported at a number of sites. Travellers are advised to avoid any large crowds or political events due to the risk of violence.
Mnangagwa inauguration in Zimbabwe – President Mnangagwa, the recently elected successor to Zimbabwe’s long-term President, Robert Mugabe, was inaugurated in Harare on 26 August. The event was peaceful, with the opposition subdued after the defeat of their legal challenge against Mnangagwa’s election.

Ethnic violence in Ethiopia’s Oromia – Estimates suggest that up to 13 Somalis may have been killed in two ethnically motivated attacks in Ethiopia’s Oromia region. The Ethiopian government strictly controls the country’s media, so reporting has been limited. It appears that members of a semi-official Ormoro militia were responsible for the killings. There is no indication that any specific event triggered the killing, suggesting this violence remains part of the wider trend of ethnic violence in the country.

West Bengal Unrest – India’s West Bengal has been shaken by widespread and violent civil unrest as the Supreme Court invalidated a series of local election results. At least 10 people have been killed in the clashes, primarily as a result of violence between competing political groups; however, one child was shot and killed in an apparent assassination attempt against his mother, a local councillor.

Dam Breached in Bago – A major dam in the Bago area of Myanmar failed on 29 August, following an extremely high level of rainfall. The resultant flooding has led to at least 12,600 people being evacuated into emergency camps, with up to 14,000 homes impacted to some degree. Major damage to roads and bridges downstream of the dam has also been reported. Travel in the region is likely to be impeded for a protracted period.

Brazilian troops deployed to Venezuelan border – The Brazilian government deployed troops to the Venezuelan border in order to support local law enforcement faced by a flood of refugees from the beleaguered nation. The flood of migrants has drastically changed the demographics of Brazil’s border areas, leading to a rise in civil unrest as the local population rally against the significant burden on their public services. There has been no indication that Brazil is seeking to close the border.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Italian Rail Strike – Staff for Italy’s Italo NTV highspeed rail network are due to conduct strike action on 07 September. Italian law requires a basic level of service to be maintained through all strikes, however widespread disruption is expected across the network. Italo NTV operates on a limited network which connects major cities. Long distance, rather than local travel will face the most extensive disruption.

World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan – The World Nomad Games is due to be held in the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan between 02 and 08 September. The games attract crowds significantly greater than the region’s normal population and therefore are likely to place a significant additional burden on travel infrastructure. Delays to travel and routine business operations are therefore likely. The games are also likely to attract a heightened security presence.

Super Typhoon Jebi –Typhoon Jebi, is on course to strike Japan over 04 and 05 September. Whilst presently rated as a typhoon, forecasters asses that it will likely become a super typhoon, with wind speeds over 175mph, by the time it makes landfall. The impact is likely to be significant; Japan has already been struck by several storms this season, existing damage to infrastructure and residential areas are likely to make Jebi’s impact all the more damaging.

Opposition Rallies in Madagascar – Madagascan opposition group, the Initiative for the Emergence of Madagascar (IEM), has planned to hold a rally in Antananarivo’s Mahamasina Sports Palace. Andry Rajoelina is intended to be the main speaker and is likely to use the rally to boost support for his presidential bid. Madagascar has experienced significant civil and political disturbances since a coup in 2009. It, therefore, remains possible that any major political rally may develop into violence, or have wider political ramifications.

Russian Pension Reform Protests – Vladimir Putin, Russia’s longtime President, announced his support for sweeping pension reforms at the end of August. The reforms include raising the male pension age to 65, and 60 for females; as a result, a significant proportion of the population will not live long enough to collect them. In response, protests have been planned across Russia’s major cities, starting from 02 September, and are highly likely to attract support from across the full political spectrum, including those typically supportive of the President. Major opposition protests are often heavy-handedly suppressed, however, the broad base of support for these rallies may limit the government’s options. Travellers to major Russian cities are strongly advised to maintain a high level of situational awareness and seek to avoid the vicinity of any rallies or protests.

Significant Dates and Events

01-03 September – Madagascar – Local transport strikes in Antananarivo
01 September – Bangladesh – BNP political rally to be held in Dhaka
01 September – Slovakia – Constitution Day
01 SSeptember– Uzbekistan – Independence day
01 September – Croatia – Major motorbike rally in Pula
01 September – Mauritania – First round of legislative elections
01 September – Mali – Opposition march in Bamako
01 September – India – State-wide protests planned in Punjab
02 September – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally
02-03 September – Hindu regions – Krishna Janmashtami
02-04 September – Tunisia – Maritime personnel to strike nationwide
03 September – Bermuda – Labour day rally in Hamilton
03 September- Canada & USA – Labour day
03 September – Vietnam – National day
05 September – Cocos Islands – Sporting event to cause disruptions on West Island
06 September – Tunisia – Rail workers to conduct nationwide strikes
06 September – Bulgaria – Unification day
06 September – Swaziland – Somhlolo day
07 Sptember – Brazil – Independence day
07 September – Fiji – Constitution day
07 September – Mozambique – Victory day
08 September – France – Pro-environmental rallies in Paris and Lyon
08-12 September – Spain – Airport Security personnel to strike
09 September – India – Akali Dal group to rally in Abohar
09 September – Russia – Nationwide rallies against pension reform
09 September – Dominican Republic – Anti-abortion rally in Santo Domingo
09 September – St Lucia – Anti-government march planned in Castries
10-11 September – Italy – Airport staff to conduct nationwide strike
13 September – Austria – Pro-refugee rally to be held in Vienna

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 35 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 35 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.