Global Security Forecast – Week 17

Sri Lanka: Nationwide Coordinated bombings kill hundreds in Eastern Sunday terror attack A series of coordinated bombings targeting three churches and three luxury hotels took place on 21 April, Easter Sunday, in the cities of Colombo, Negombo and Batticaloa. The first 6 blasts, exploding around 08:45 am local time, were aimed at maximising casualties, targeting people gathering for Easter mass and breakfast in the hotel restaurants. Two more bombs exploded later in the afternoon in Colombo, in a large-scale jihadist terror attack. It was the deadliest strike suffered by Sri Lanka since the end of the 26-year-long civil war against Tamil separatists, marking the end of a decade of relative peace and hope for a future of security, democracy and rule of law. On Tuesday, ISIS claimed official responsibility for the attack through its news agency Amaq, without giving any evidence and claiming the attack was a retaliation to the attack in New Zealand. ISIS supporters had already honoured the Easter Sunday attacks on their media channels, framing it as rightful revenge for the anti-Muslim shooting that took place on 15 March in Christchurch as well as the war in Syria. Sri Lankan authorities consider local radical Islamist group, the National Tawheed Jamath, as responsible for the terror attacks: this was also indicated in an intelligence memo warning the government of the plans by the militants to strike churches, apparently informed by foreign intelligence services. The government increasingly seemed to have failed to pre-emptively react to the terrorist attack, although the police and the intelligence services were reportedly informed of the threat on 4 April by Indian and American intelligence operatives. The tip-off detailed the plans by National Thawheed Jamaath to carry out a terror attack on the churches and reportedly did not reach the top officials in the government, fatally preventing any counter-terrorism operation. For more information, read our full report on the terror attack here.

United Kingdom: London Extinction Rebellion protest ends, 25 April Over the last two weeks, the environmentalist group Extinction Rebellion has held a number of protests and sit-ins around the world demanding the recognition of the ongoing climate emergency. The largest event has been in London and travel disruption within the city has been significant. The protests were centred around five key locations in central London including Mable Arch, Parliament Square, Waterloo Bridge, Oxford Circus, and Piccadilly Circus. So far over 1,000 people have been arrested. However, on 24 April, Extinction Rebellion announced that they would be ending their protests and blockades early on 25 April. They argued that their point had been made and that the climate conversation was back in the national agenda. A closing event was held at 18:00 BST at Hyde Park’s speakers corner. The protests have been largely peaceful although damage was done to the Shell HQ in London. Hundreds of solidarity protests occurred in cities all over the world although it is unclear if they will continue beyond the 25 April. A police presence is likely to remain in key location over the weekend.

Mozambique: North Cyclone Kenneth makes landfall in northern regions bringing heavy rainfall and high winds Extreme winds and heavy rain have started to cause damage across northern Mozambique. Kenneth made landfall in Cabo Delgado, about 100 km (62 miles) north of Pemba at the end of the day on Thursday. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 200 km/h (124 mph), the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans. Forecasting services are expecting a slow-moving cyclone, which could remain in the area at the north of the country close to the border with Tanzania, with several days of continuous rain that are likely to cause severe flooding and disruption. Storm surges of around 3-5 meters have occurred in coastal areas around Cabo Delgado. Schools and airports across the region have closed in preparation for the storm. Cyclone Kenneth is the first storm of this strength to hit Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado since records began 60 years ago. Before reaching Mozambique, Kenneth killed three people in the Comoros Islands. Sustained heavy rainfall of 250mm (10 Inches) is expected across most areas with some areas anticipated to receive 1,000mm (40 inches). Mozambique is still reeling from cyclone Idai which killed over 1,000 people and left tens of thousands displaced in the south of the country at the start of April.

Russia: Vladivostok President Putin hosts North Korean leader for first bilateral summit North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia on an armoured train for a bilateral meeting with President Putin on Wednesday 24 April and was greeted by a military band. The two leaders met for the first time on Thursday on Russky Island and reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing relations, deescalate tensions and improve the security environment in the region. Russia also expressed the desire for a multilateral approach to the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and the reopening of the Six-Party Talks, which were held between 2003 and 2007, but failed to reach an agreement. This consultation comes shortly after the failure of the second US-DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) meeting that was held in Hanoi in February and was cut short by President Donald Trump over a disagreement regarding the terms of the denuclearisation process. Many believe this to be a retaliatory move by Kim Jong Un, who reportedly executed four foreign affairs officials after the summit failure. The meeting of Putin and Kim puts additional pressure on the US to be more flexible in future talks. Kim’s trip also adds to his new image of international statesman rather than despotic dictator, having now successfully put the diplomatic ball back in the US’s court.

Myanmar: Hpakan Landslide in a jade mine in Kachin State kills 54 At least 54 people are suspected to have been killed in a mudslide that took place in a jade mine on 22 April at 23:30 local time. According to local authorities, a mud filter collapsed at a mine in the Hpakan region in Myanmar, trapping the workers while they were sleeping. Rescue operations began early on Tuesday with three bodies recovered from the rubble, but the authorities do not expect to find any more survivors. The area is known to produce some of the highest quality jade, which is exported to neighbouring China and fuels a notoriously dangerous illegal trade network, generating an estimated 31 billion USD every year. The miners, most likely small jade pickers, are believed to be internal migrants who dug through the debris produced by big mining companies to find the precious mineral. Incidents of this kind are a frequent reality in Myanmar with dozens dying every year, especially during the monsoon season in mines that are opened without adequate considerations over health and safety regulations. According to statistics, the overall death toll has been rising in the past years, particularly as the establishment of a civil government in 2010 led to the lifting of several international sanctions previously affecting jade exports.

South Africa: KwaZulu-Natal province Heavy rains result in deadly flooding and mudslides in South Africa Torrential rain that lasted days and culminated with a severe downpour on Monday resulted in mudslides, flooding and structures collapsing in the coastal province of KwaZulu-Natal, in the southeastern region of South Africa. Emergency services are working to provide aid, while authorities have declared a death toll of approximately 60 people. The flooding severely disrupted businesses and caused more than 1,000 people to be displaced. Dozens of people have been taken to hospital, and search and rescue teams are looking for more survivors under the rubble of collapsed buildings. The flooding has also affected the neighbouring East Cape Town province, killing three people. Severe weather warnings remain in place and the risk is considered high particularly in coastal areas. On Sunday, the heavy rains led to the death of 13 people by causing a church in KwaZulu-Natal to collapse during Easter mass.

Spain: Nationwide Spain will hold a snap election on Sunday 28 April On 28 April, Spain will hold the third election in 4 years, in the latest attempt to form a stable government amidst polarising issues such as corruption, immigration and Catalan separatism. The election was called by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after less than a year since his inauguration, due to the repeated rejections of its yearly budget by the Parliament. Currently, the polls show the traditional Socialist Party in the lead. The ever-shifting political stances among Spain’s multiparty system and a fragmented electorate makes it virtually impossible for the leading party to form a strong majority, perpetuating the chronic instability in the government. For years, in fact, the power has been held by main traditional parties, such as the Socialist and the Popular Party, which historically governed alone or with smaller parties, generally avoiding a bipartisan coalition. However, the recent fragmentation in Spanish politics has sparked the emergence of smaller political factions, such as the centrists Ciudadanos, Unidos Podemos and the right-wing Vox. This division in the electoral support has made it impossible for the main political forces to gain a definitive majority in the elections and the radicalisation of the smaller political parties also contributed in making the coalition more volatile.

Japan: Kyoto Japanese emperor to step down on 30 April On 30 April, Japan’s Emperor Akihito, who has reigned since January 1989, will step down from the Chrysanthemum Throne. This is the first abdication in Japan’s monarchy in two centuries. Emperor Akihito has stated that his health is his primary motive for his abdication, particularly following his heart surgery in 2012. Celebrations and events are planned across the country for the abdication ceremony that will be held on 30 April. This ceremony will be a small private gathering with only 300 guests. Japan’s Imperial Household Agency lists Emperor Akihito as the 126^th emperor of Japan with verified accounts of this family stretching back until the sixth century. The role is now largely symbolic as the emperor has no say in politics, but holds great significance to the Japanese populous. Akihito’s eldest son, 59-year-old Crown Prince Naruhito, will take the throne the following day in a series of solemn ceremonies, receiving the imperial regalia – an ancient mirror, sword and jewel – considered crucial evidence of an emperor’s legitimacy.

Maritime Risk Mitigation: Solace Global Advises the Maiden Team

Maiden is the iconic ocean racing yacht, that made history with Tracy Edwards and her all-female crew in the 1989/90 Whitbread Round the World Yacht Race when they became the first all female crew to sail around the world. Having won two of the six legs and finished second overall in their class, their triumph silenced their critics and inspired many more women to take up the sport.

Nearly 30 years later, Maiden has been fully restored and has embarked on a new journey – a world tour, raising awareness and funds for girls’ educational projects around the globe.

When sailing around the world, most would expect the perils of bad weather, big swells, vessel damage, illness or injury, but in certain areas there is also the risk of piracy, kidnap, and even terror related incidents. Due to the diverse risks the crew face, Solace Global helped Maiden to prepare and protect her crew during the high-risk legs of her epic journey.

How it All Began

The story of the 58ft Maiden began life in 1979 as DISQUE D’OR 3, this Bruce Farr designed ocean racing yacht was a “wreak with a pedigree” and would see Tracy Edwards realise her dream of completing the WRTWYR with an all-female crew! A race that saw them survive icebergs, 30 degree below freezing temperatures, a tornado, a near sinking and the final five days without food – their final position was 2nd place overall in their class; the best result for a British boat in 11 years and unbeaten to this day!

Following the race, Maiden was sold, and the girls scattered to the four corners of the earth. 27 years later, Maiden came home to the UK with the promise of a world tour and inspiring a new generation of girls!

Preparing for the World Tour

As any good scout will tell you, preparation is key, especially when planning something as epic as a world tour. Solace Global assisted with the preparation by conducting voyage threat and risk assessments; security summaries and advice on the risks associated with the route, including recommendations on where best to bunker, based on the localised threats.

In addition to risk assessments and recommendation, Solace helped to prepare the crew by delivering threat briefings and training on emergency response procedures in the event of a security related incident. Once Maiden embarked on her journey, Solace continued to track the yacht and monitor any incidents in her vicinity, particularly as she sailed through the ‘HRA’ – an area of the Indian Ocean where there is an elevated risk of piracy, kidnap and attack. Although the crew faced relentless bad weather, big swells and vessel damage, their transit through the HRA went without incident and Maiden continues on her Message of Hope Relay.

Message of Hope

The Maiden Message of Hope Relay is delivering messages of hope and solidarity written by girls in the UK, to girls around the world. The Message of Hope will be carried by Maiden, around the world and passed from country to country, presented in a ceremony upon arrival at each of the stopovers. Each girl will add their message of hope and solidarity.

An Incredible Crew

The awe inspiring all-female crew include record breakers, race winners, Olympians, with countless accolades (including an MBE).

During Solace’s time advising Maiden, the Skipper was Nicola ‘Nikki’ Henderson, who in 2017, at age 23, was the Clipper Race’s youngest ever skipper. Nikki had skippered three ARC races across the Atlantic, twice winning the Youngest Skipper Award.

NOTE TO EDITOR:

About Solace Global

Solace Global is a market leading provider of maritime security services and anti-piracy operations, with extensive vessel protection experience; over 3 million man hours at sea, protecting over 5000 vessels for some of the worlds’ largest shipping companies, oil majors, cruise liners and super yacht clients.

As an ISO accredited maritime security company, we are proud of our operational excellence and professional reputation.

The Maiden Factor

The Maiden Factor’s mission is to continue Maiden’s iconic legacy and inspire the next generation of girls through education. Founded by Tracy Edwards, The Maiden Factor works with and supports a number of charities which fulfil the following criteria:

Empower/teach/mentor girls and/or promote, facilitate, lobby for or provide solutions which enable the education of girls not currently afforded that basic human right.

The Maiden Factor promotes the rights of girls on the world stage through Maiden, an iconic reminder of what girls can achieve if they are allowed to realise their full potential.

Maiden Film

Tracy’s epic journey has been made into a film Maiden – twelve women, a race to the finish, a battle to be equal. #MaidenFilm

Earth Day: Climate Change Risks and Environmental Degradation

On April 22, people around the world will celebrate Earth Day. Various events and demonstrations are held across the globe to raise awareness on environmental protection and shed light on climate concerns.

In recent years, governments and international organisations have attempted to engage in the environmental debate and looked to provide long term solutions to this matter, however many have failed to respond. The climate debate has also seen thousands of protesters globally occupying roads and leading large-scale protests. Most recently, protests by the environmental activist group Extinction Rebellion have led to significant traffic congestion and disruption to public transportation and businesses across London, with over 800 of those involved being arrested. This is part of an international movement that plans to carry out a series of escalating rebellions in different countries to demand profound political change in relation to climate.

Climate change and environmental degradation are key issues that the world is facing; there is a prevalent consensus that the earth is warming, and that the impact caused by continued greenhouse emissions will lead to irreversible outcomes.

Observable changes that scientists predicted in the past are now starting to occur on a frequent basis; melting sea ice, alteration of weather patterns, stronger environmental hazards and changes in the ecosystem are only some examples. There have also been steady patterns indicative of climate change. For instance, in the last 50 years, the concentration of global carbon emissions, reached record highs at an unusual speed; global temperatures are warmer than they have ever been and, this is directly linked to human activities.

Specifically, statistics show that the planet’s average surface has risen about 0.9 degrees Celsius since the late 19^th century and satellite observations show that glaciers are retreating almost everywhere in the world. Between 1993 and 2016, Antarctica has lost an average of 127 billion tons of ice per year, a figure that has tripled in the last decade.

This is a reality that humankind has never experienced before and is the driving force behind climate change groups to highlight this to national governments.

The effects of climate change can not only be seen on the world’s environment but also on its geopolitical landscape and social systems. This is because climate change has an impact on the fundamental resources that communities depend on to survive. Therefore, it is a direct threat that further destabilises already fragile regions. For this reason, climate change can be a catalyst for conflict that worsens countries’ pre-existing issues leading to unpredictable chains of events that include humanitarian crisis, political turmoil, displacement and migration. In relation to this, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon stated “changes in our environment and the resulting upheavals – from droughts to inundated coastal areas to loss of arable lands – are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict”.

Globally, some regions are more exposed to climate change than others. For example, millions of people in Africa are affected by droughts and, as climate change worsens, there is added pressure to water supplies. In this case, reduced access to water may then lead to discontent which can prompt a higher likelihood of instability and, as a result, could trigger internal conflict.

The security challenges posed by climate change are complex and affect communities by putting pressure on current vulnerabilities. The most likely security threat to travellers is the unrest caused by protests across cities. Although they may appear peaceful they can erupt into violence. Earth Day is likely to see widespread demonstrations, the violence among these is likely to vary greatly by country. All demonstrations or large groups should be avoided to mitigate against the risk of unrest.

Global Security Forecast – Week 16

Australia: Melbourne Nightclub shooting leaves one dead and three injured Local media sources reported that at approximately 03:20 local time on 14 April, a shooting incident took place outside the Love Machine nightclub on Malvern Road in the Prahran district of Melbourne. At least one person, a security guard, was killed in the drive-by shooting, with three others sustaining serious injuries. Police and paramedics attended the scene and cordoned off Malvern Road between Chapel Street and Surrey Road in order to carry out their investigations. At this time, there have been no suggestions the attack was terror-related and no arrests have been made. Localised travel disruptions are expected to continue in the coming days, as the crime scene investigations are ongoing.

United Kingdom: London Extinction Rebellion Protests, 15-29 April The environmentalist group Extinction Rebellion has announced a number of protests and sit-ins around the world demanding the recognition of the ongoing climate emergency, with the largest one taking place in London. The protests will consist of the obstruction and blockage of some key streets and areas in London including Marble Arch, Oxford Circus, Waterloo Bridge, Parliament Square and Piccadilly Circus. The organisers have planned to hold demonstrations until 29 April, as well as hold a number of events across the sites demanding the UK government to pledge to reduce its carbon emission to net zero by 2025. The demonstrations are part of a global campaign, with acts of peaceful unrest expected to take place in 80 cities across 33 countries in the coming days. On 17 April, climate change protesters climbed on top of trains at Canary Wharf station to carry out their protests. Protesters also confirmed plans to cause tube disruptions on the London Underground. At the time of writing, more than 400 peoples have been arrested and police presence has been significantly increased, particularly in the Westminster area. The severe disruption caused to commuters and businesses has led to calls to the Metropolitan Police to take more radical action to tackle the protests, especially in the city centre, claiming severe losses in revenue over the past days.

France: Paris Fire destroys Notre Dame Cathedral and triggers travel disruptions and evacuations The fire at Notre-Dame Cathedral, believed to have been caused by onsite construction workers, has caused significant damage to the building, with much of the roof and its famous ‘arrow’ spire collapsing in. The fire appeared to have started around 7pm local time on 15 April and authorities have stated that the cathedral was 30 minutes away from complete destruction if the firefighters hadn’t intervened and successfully put out the blaze after a 15 hour-long effort. Authorities have established a security perimeter around the incident site – with road closures that are in effect for much of the 4th arrondissement and portions of the 5th arrondissement, including bridges and roads adjacent to the cathedral on the Ile de la Cite. All residents of Ile de la Cite were evacuated including tourists staying at affected hotels. There have been no reports of any injuries at this time.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Lake Kivu At least 150 people missing after vessel capsizes Local news reports suggest that at least 150 people are still missing after a vessel capsized on Lake Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo on 15 April. Local sources say the vessel was carrying approximately 200 people, 37 of whom have been rescued and 3 bodies have been recovered. Local security forces and emergency crews are working at the scene to locate the missing passengers – although many are presumed to have drowned, as such, the death toll is expected to rise over the coming days. Deadly boat accidents occur frequently on the Congo River and on the country’s lakes where water is a primary means of transport for residents outside its major cities.

Libya: Tripoli At least six killed and 36 wounded in rocket attacks across the capital Local sources reported that at least six people have been killed and another 36 suffered injuries in the aftermath of an exchange in rocket shelling between LNA and GNA forces. Several neighbourhoods in Tripoli were damaged by the Russian Grad rockets, the worst affected being the southern district of Abu Salim. Among the dead and injured are women and children, unconfirmed reports also suggest an entire family was killed when a rocket directly hit their home. The strikes took place in the context of a prolonged battle for the capital after General Haftar first ordered his forces to march on the capital on 4 April. Following the attacks, hundreds of civilians took to Martyr’s Square to display their anger and condemnation. The head of the Supreme Council of State, Khalid al-Mashri, also issued a statement condemning the indiscriminate shelling of Tripoli neighbourhoods. The Government of National Accord has declared that it intends to supply documents to the International Criminal Court in order to prosecute General Haftar as a war criminal. Further armed clashes, artillery and airstrikes are highly likely over the coming days, as the conflict in and around Tripoli escalates. According to the World Health Organization, at least 174 people have been killed and 756 wounded since the LNA started its offensive. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to Libya; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor the latest alerts.

Qatar: Doha Afghan government officials to hold talks with Taliban representatives in Doha, 19-21 April National media outlets are reporting that the Afghan government is planning to send 250 delegates for talks with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar, between 19 – 21 April. It will be the first time that Afghan government officials and Taliban representatives will meet since failed peace talks were held in Pakistan in 2015. The three days of talks will come amid a push by the United States to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban after a drawn-out eighteen-year war. A heightened security presence is expected in Doha surrounding the event as it could be seen as a high-profile target by terrorist groups. ADVICE: Travellers should anticipate an increased security presence and enhanced security measures in Doha during the talks. Associate localised travel disruptions such as road closures and checkpoints are anticipated.

South Asia: Multiple countries Adverse weather results in fatalities and disruption in Afghanistan, India, Iran and Pakistan Torrential rain has led to widespread disruption in Afghanistan, India, Iran and Pakistan. In India, storms and flash floods have killed at least 33 people across the northern regions of the country. Currently, the most affected area is Madhya Pradesh. Heavy rains also caused flash flooding in Pakistan with at least 50 people killed and hundreds more injured. Major disruption was reported in north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and southwestern Baluchistan provinces, where infrastructure was completely or partially damaged and hundreds have been forced to move to a safer place. Adverse weather also downed trees and power lines affecting both communication and travel. In Afghanistan, weather-related disruptions were reported in 16 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. In the western province of Herat, search and rescue operations are underway to locate a number of people missing. Iran has also been significantly impacted by flooding. At least 76 people have died after torrential rainfall, which has caused damages of around 2.5bn USD since 19 March. The country has been struggling to process aid and relief due to US sanctions. Iran’s Red Crescent has repeatedly complained that the US banking sanctions re-imposed last year make it impossible to receive donations from outside the country. ADVICE: Travel to the impacted regions may be difficult due to the inundations impacting local infrastructure. Be aware that further flooding and mudslides are likely in the region. Where possible, avoid travelling on potentially flooded routes unless necessary.

Significant Dates & Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
19-22 April	Worldwide	Easter Celebrations	LOW
19 April	Eswatini	King Mswati III’s birthday	LOW
19-22 April	Judaism	Passover	LOW
19-20 April	South Africa	Old Mutual Two Oceans Marathon, Cape Town	LOW
19 April	United States	Anniversary of the terrorist bombing in Oklahoma City (1995)	LOW
19 April	United States	Anniversary of the end of the siege of the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas (1993)	LOW
20 April	Uruguay	Public Holiday: Landing of the 33 Patriots	MODERATE
21 April	Brazil	Tiradentes Day	MODERATE
22 April	Ukraine	Presidential Election Runoff	MODERATE
22 April	South Africa	Family Day	LOW
23 April	Brazil	Sao Jorge, Rio de Janeiro	MODERATE
23 April	Turkey	National Sovereignty and Children’s Day	LOW
24 April	Armenia	Genocide Memorial Day	LOW
24 April	Niger	National Concord Day	HIGH
24 April	Togo	Day of Victory	LOW
24 April	Australia	Anzac Day	LOW
25 April	Egypt	Coptic Holy Thursday	MODERATE
25 April	Egypt	Sinai Liberation Day	MODERATE
25 April	Eswatini	National Flag Day	LOW
25 April	Italy	Saint Mark’s Day	LOW
25 April	Italy	Liberation Day	LOW
25 April	Portugal	Liberty Day	LOW

Global Security Forecast – Week 15

GLOBAL HEADLINES

Libya: Nationwide The Haftar LNA advances on Tripoli, sparking clashes with the forces of the UN-backed Government of National Accord On 3 April the Presidential Council declared a state of emergency in Tripoli and the Government of National Accord (GNA) mobilised allied forces following reports of the Libyan National Army (LNA) advancing towards the capital. The LNA responded to the command of the rival government based in the east of the country and led by General Khalif Haftar. Deadly clashes have since then taken place in the southern suburbs of Tripoli; with both sides claiming advantage. Pro-LNA sources had claimed that their forces had captured Qaser Bin Ghashir and Souq al-Khamis (Sog Al-Khmies) and attempted to take control of Tripoli International Airport (TIP) from troops loyal to the GNA. On 6 April, it was reported that the Libyan Air Force carried out targeted strikes against LNA positions at Mizdah and Sog Al-Khmies, near to Garyan city. Fighting has led to a death toll of at least 75 people and 323 wounded. At the time of the writing, the conflicting forces remain locked in a standstill in the outskirts of the city, while over 9000 people have been displaced in the capital according to the UN. The international community has called for a ceasefire, as concerns rise over the impact of the conflict on Libya’s oil production capability and the spike in migration through the Mediterranean Sea.

Sudan: Khartoum Sudanese army arrests President Omar al-Bashir and takes charge On 11 April, the Sudanese defence minister announced the military had removed from office and arrested President Omar al-Bashir, following months of protests against his rule and a rise in the cost of living. A Supreme Security Committee will run the country for a two-year transitional period followed by elections. For more, read our travel advisory here.

United Kingdom: London Julian Assange arrested in Ecuadorian embassy in London Julian Assange was arrested in the Ecuadorian embassy in London on 11 April. The WikiLeaks founder was granted refuge in 2012 while on bail in the UK over sexual assault allegations against him in Sweden. Assange was found guilty of breaching bail and is due to be sentenced next month. The arrest comes on behalf of the United States authorities, who have charged him with involvement in computer hacking together with Chelsea Manning. Journalists and free speech advocates around the world have referred to the arrest as unconstitutional and a threat to journalism rights. Shortly after his arrest, a number of Assange’s supporters gathered in London in protests. In Ecuador, demonstrations took place outside the Foreign Ministry building in Quito, chanting against President Lenin Moreno, who suddenly revoked his seven-year asylum and demanding Assange’s release. Most recently, supporters also gathered in front of the Opera House and outside the UK consulate in Sydney. It its likely that protests will continue until his sentencing in a months time.

India: Nationwide General Elections, 11 April – 19 May On 11 April, tens of millions of Indian nationals started voting on the first day of the general election. Indians in 20 states are beginning a seven-phase vote to elect a new lower house parliament scheduled to last until 19 May. With 900 million voters, this is set to be the largest election ever seen. In the 2014 elections the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a historic landslide and it was favoured to win again in 2019. However, critics have argued that the promises have not met expectations, making these elections a meter to gauge if Prime Minister Narendra Modi still holds the trust of the population. The BJP faces several challenges from regional parties and a resurgent Indian National Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi. The lower house of parliament has 543 elected seats and any party/coalition needs a minimum of 272 members to form a government. The elections are taking place in the context of the recent clashes with the neighbouring Pakistan after a suicide attack killed 40 Indian paramilitary police members in Kashmir in February. Elections got off to a troubled start, with sporadic threats and violence reported in several locations across the country. Notably, the leader from the Telugu Desam Party and one from YSR Congress were killed during election-related violence in a village in the Anantapurami district, in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. It was also reported that the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) had carried out two attacks in Chhattisgarh’s Narayanpur district. Across the constituencies, there were hundreds of reports about electronic voting machines malfunctioning and some citizens were not on the ballot rolls.

Pakistan: Quetta Sixteen dead and multiple injured following an explosion at Quetta’s Hazarganji At least 16 people were killed and another 30 wounded following an explosion at a market in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta. The blast occurred at approximately 11:30 local time and targeted the city’s minority Hazara community. The Hazaras are a Shia Muslim minority who make up an important minority group in Pakistan and across the border in the Hazarajat region of Afghanistan, where they are the third largest ethnic group. Buildings located nearby were also damaged in the explosion. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack; however, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Sunni militant group known to target the Hazara community, is believed to be responsible. ADVICE: Terror groups in Pakistan maintain the ability to conduct attacks by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) or strategic armed assaults. There remains an underlying potential for low-profile terror attacks to be conducted on high profile targets. It is always recommended to maintain situational awareness and report any suspicious behaviour to local authorities.

Afghanistan: Nationwide Taliban Spring Offensive 2019 In April, the Afghan Taliban announced the beginning of their 2019 spring offensive, with the leading operation being named ‘Victory’. The spring offensive is organised by the Military Commission of the Islamic Emirate which acts as a central headquarters for the Taliban’s guerrilla operations. The declaration of the new fighting season comes annually as the winter snow melts and allows the Taliban to gain control of district centres and target government facilities. Airstrikes have been launched against the Taliban in retaliation. Since the clashes began, Taliban militants have overrun several checkpoints in the Bala Murghab district. The district came under intense insurgent pressure with officials claiming that five security points have fallen, and, if no reinforcements were deployed, the district would fall under Taliban rule. At least 21 soldiers have also been taken prisoner by insurgents during the attacks. Violence has also erupted in northern province of Baghlan with several killed, 18 civilians injured, and a doctor killed when explosives were detonated at a health facility in Pul-i-Kumri City. The clashes have risen whilst Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. envoy, is tasked with forging a peace deal with the Taliban. During his time in Afghanistan he spoke with national leaders and stakeholders. Khalilzad is expected to meet with Taliban and Afghan officials in the coming days in Qatar. Despite this, the Taliban have been refusing to meet with leaders. Since 2014, around 45,000 security forces have been killed. In previous offensives, both schools and community centres have been closed across Afghanistan following warnings over possible attacks.

Indonesia: Nationwide General elections, 17 April On 17 April, Indonesia will vote simultaneously for a new president and parliament. The incumbent President Joko Widodo, who is supported by the two largest parties, will stand for re-election alongside well-known Islamic figure Nahdatul Ulama. The choice of the incumbent to run with one of the most influential Muslim figures in Indonesia appears deliberate, since the previous presidential elections of 2014 saw his advantage greatly damaged by accusations questioning his religious beliefs and his stance towards China. His opponent will again be former General Prabowo Subianto, accompanied by former Jakarta deputy governor and business-man Sandiaga Uno as a running mate. Subianto is currently trailing in the polls with 32 percent against a 55 percent of the expected vote. Economic and religious concerns are the main issues faced by the two candidates, with growing worries over economic stability, inflation and, most dangerously, the rising populist sentiments along religious lines. Indonesia has seen a rise in religious intolerance and terror-related incidents in recent times, culminating with a series of suicide attacks against Christian churches in May 2018 that prompted the introduction of a comprehensive anti-terrorism law. There is a possibility of militant groups trying to disrupt the vote or for violence to occur, especially against religious minorities in its aftermath. Individuals are advised to monitor local media for updates on the political situation. Avoid all demonstrations and gatherings, as well as openly discussing political matters in public. In-country travel disruption is possible as a result of the civil unrest and it is, therefore, recommended to allow additional transport times and be aware of alternate routes to minimise potential delays.

Thailand: Nationwide Songkran festival, 13-15 April The Songkran festival is the traditional Thai New Year’s Day and is celebrated from 13-15 April. Additional public holidays may be declared by the government depending on which days of the week the days of Songkran fall on. The most famous aspect of the Songkran celebrations is the throwing of water. As such, Songkran is often known as the Thai Water Festival. The custom originates from spring cleaning aspect of Songkran and part of the ritual was the cleaning of images of Buddha. Using the ‘blessed’ water that cleaned the images to soak other people is seen as a way of paying respect and bring good fortune. ADVICE: As one of the largest celebrations in Thailand, Songkran celebrations attract hundreds of thousands of tourists. Large gatherings are anticipated notably in Khao San Road and Silom Road in Bangkok, Patong Beach in Phuket, and Thapae Gate in Chiang Mai. Police statistics show that during Songkran, traffic fatality rates increase. In-country travel disruption is possible, therefore it is recommended to allow additional transport times and be aware of alternate routes to minimise potential delays.

Significant Dates & Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
12 April	Liberia	National Redemption Day	MODERATE
13-16 April	Asian Calendar	Thingyan Water Festival	MODERATE
13-17 April	Thailand	Songkran Festival	MODERATE
13 April	Venezuela	Military Reserve and National Mobilization Day	HIGH
14 April	Bangladesh	Bengali New Year	MODERATE
14-15 April	Cambodia	Cambodian New Year	LOW
14 April	Honduras	Pan American Day	LOW
14 April	India	Ambedkar Jayanti commemorations	MODERATE
15 April	North Korea	Kim Il-Sung’s Birthday	HIGH
15 April	Puerto Rico	Jose de Diego’s birthday	MODERATE
15 April	United States	Boston Marathon	LOW
17 April	Brazil	Anniversary of the massacre of El Dorado dos	MODERATE
17 April	Gabon	Women’s Day	MODERATE
17 April	Indonesia	Presidential and legislative elections	MODERATE
17 April	India	Mahavir Jayanthi	MODERATE
17 April	Syria	Independence Day	HIGH
18 April	Zimbabwe	Independence Day	HIGH
19 April	Eswatini	King Mswati III’s birthday	LOW
19 April	South Africa	Old Mutual Two Oceans Marathon, Cape Town	MODERATE
19 April	Uruguay	Public Holiday	MODERATE
19 April	United States	Anniversary of the terrorist bombing in Oklahoma City (1995)	LOW

Global Election Review for April 2019

Click to view the Global Election Review 2019 – April, you’ll notice this is a more in-depth look at each election – the new format replaces the initial free report previously posted.

Global Security Forecast: Week 14 2019

GLOBAL HEADLINES

Iran: Hamedan Adverse weather causes flooding in the west of the country After years of drought, western Iran received 70 percent of the region’s annual rainfall in a single day. As a result of the unprecedented adverse weather, flooding has heavily impacted Hamedan, in Hamedan Province and Pol-e Dokhtar, in Lorestan Province. On Monday 2 April, the authorities ordered emergency evacuations in several locations in Lorestan Province, while also issuing warnings regarding flood waters in Khuzestan Province reaching a “critical level”. Thus far, at least 62 people are believed to have been killed in the flooding. Reports indicate that tens of thousands of people have been displaced, putting pressure on emergency shelters and disaster relief efforts. Storms forecast for the coming days are also predicted to affect the west and southwest of the country. Further flooding, disruption and damage are to be expected. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to adhere to all instructions issued by the authorities. Defer non-essential travel to Hamedan, Lorestan and Khuzestan provinces as well as any other areas that are being impacted. Keep yourself informed of the situation through local news sources. If currently in the affected locations, do not attempt to cross waters of an undetermined depth and ensure that all accommodation is in an area not prone to flooding. Remain aware that emergency services and hospitals might be unable to provide assistance due to insufficient resources.

Venezuela: Nationwide Judges strip opposition leader Guaidó of immunity On 1 April, the government-backed National Constituent Assembly lifted the parliamentary immunity status for the opposition leader and self-declared interim President Juan Guaidó, as he supposedly violated a travel ban in the past months by visiting several South American countries that openly support regime change in Venezuela. He previously enjoyed immunity due to his position as the head of the National Assembly. At present, whether Maduro’s government will take further action by arresting him, remains unclear. However, as Guaidó is being accused by the authorities of inciting violence and hiding personal finances, this latest development might legitimise an attempt to arrest him. Following the National Constituent Assembly’s decision to strip him of immunity, Guaidó posted a speech on social media reassuring supporters of having a contingency strategy in place, while instigating nationwide protests to take place on 6 April. At present, further details on the protests have not been announced. The arrest, or some form of detention, of Guaidó would be a dangerous step for the Maduro regime as it would both galvanize the opposition and the international community opposing Maduro’s government, potentially resulting in harsher sanctions and direct international intervention in the country’s crisis. However, it is unclear what the next step for the country will be, as Maduro continues to control the state and military apparatus with crucial support from China and Russia. ADVICE: Avoid all travel to Venezuela as the situation is likely to deteriorate further. Public demonstrations in support of Guaidó and for President Nicolas Maduro are likely following this announcement. Venezuela’s crisis has further deepened following a recent series of power outages that have led to transportation and communication disruptions.

Nepal: Bara & Parsa District Deadly thunderstorm kills at least 30 on 31 March At least 30 people were killed and hundreds more were injured after a violent thunderstorm hit Bara and Parsa districts in southern Nepal, about 120km south of capital Kathmandu on 31 March. Emergency services have been unable to reach the worst affected areas due to the damage to roads and communication lines; as a consequence, the death toll is likely to increase. Hazards such as flooding and mudslides pose a further threat to the region. During the pre-monsoon months, it is common for Nepal to experience severe thunder and hailstorms that can cause significant property and agricultural damage; however, fatalities are rare. Rescue and relief operations are underway. Some locals have bemoaned the “tourism” that the disaster has caused. While trucks and trailers have arrived loaded with sacks of rice and vegetables, horse-drawn carriages and brightly painted auto-rickshaws have also brought visitors from neighbouring villages and towns. Some have come just to look whilst others have been busy taking selfies and snapping photos of the locals. There even are reports of a group of students who were there with their teacher; apparently on an educational trip to experience what a disaster zone looks like. ADVICE: Flooding has led to widespread disruption in Bara and Parsa districts in southern Nepal. It is not recommended to attempt to drive through flooded roads. Dangerous obstacles are often unseen in flood waters and there is potential for strong undercurrents, even in low-level flood waters. Additionally, be aware that there may be localised sections of civil unrest in response to the disaster as people have lost their livelihood.

Uganda: Queen Elizabeth National Park US citizen kidnapped for ransom in Uganda On 2 April, an American national and her safari guide were kidnapped at gunpoint in Queen Elisabeth National Park, located in south-west Uganda on the border with Congo. The two were reportedly on a game drive in the park, without the presence of any armed guard despite being advised to have one, when they were abducted. Ugandan police have dispatched an elite squad of investigators in the wake of a ransom demand made by Ugandan militants. Despite the rapid escalation of the event, officials have managed to cordon off and secure a considerable area which encompasses much of both the Ugandan and Congolese border. Police are convinced that the perpetrators are housed within the search areas diameter. The woman concerned was kidnapped alongside four other US citizens and a Ugandan driver; the other hostages were freed shortly after. The militants are in-contact with US officials and are demanding a US$500,000 ransom pay-out for her safe return. Far from being a standalone event, the kidnapping contributed to the heightening international concern surrounding the security of foreign nationals in Uganda due to a substantial rise in kidnappings made over the past 12 months. Advice: If travelling to Uganda, remain aware of the heightened threat in kidnapping and exercise increased vigilance. Avoid carrying luxury items, as foreigners are often targeted for the perceived wealth. Foreign nationals travelling to the region should be aware of this specific threat, this is especially the case for high-net-worth individuals. When travelling to a remote area, take sensible precautions, such as hiring a security-trained driver and avoid travelling at night. Consider communicating to your Foreign Office your itinerary and remain aware of the in-country situation through local and international news.

Libya: Tripoli Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s troops advance on the Libyan capital The military strongman’s troops have already seized control of the oilfields in the south of the country and are now advancing on Tripoli in an effort to take de-facto control of the country’s government. Haftar, a former Gadhafi general who spent time in exile in the US, is backed by both neighbouring Egypt and, allegedly, by Russia; in the form of mercenaries and money. The general has been painted as a secularist, countering the jihadist threat in the country by many. However, many of his supporters include Salafists and Islamic fundamentalists. Despite this wide range of support, and apparent ambition to take over the entire country, Haftar’s forces are already facing stiff resistance as they advance on Tripoli from the country’s de-jure government. Elsewhere, it remains unclear what support outside of Egypt and Russia the Field Marshal can look to enjoy, France, in particular, appears attracted by the prospect of a military strongman to use as a basis to build a more united – and stable – Libya. Haftar has also been encouraged by the silence of the International community, which has emboldened his advance. Advice: Travellers are advised to defer all travel to Libya for at least the next 48 to 72 hours due to the potential for an outbreak in fighting. Travellers in-country, and especially in Tripoli and Misrata, should remain in place in a secure location with enough supplies to remain for at least seven days. Ensure you have 24/7 professional security support.

Algeria: Algiers President Bouteflika resigns amid protests; council to meet on 10 April to decide future On 2 April, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced his resignations, effective immediately. His declaration follows two months of nationwide protests against the president’s attempt to run for re-election, demanding his immediate departure from office. Demonstrations have been fueled by systemic issues like a high unemployment rate, sluggish economic growth and lack of political options for change. The now-former president became the focal point for the unrest and a symbol of the government’s inaction, partially due to his lack of public appearances since a stroke in 2013. Algeria’s 12-member Constitutional Council is now expected to meet on 10 April to discuss the course of action. Amidst the ongoing political crisis and uncertainty, labour unions across several sectors announced their plans to hold a strike and protests on the same day. Further demonstrations over the coming hours and days are considered likely throughout the nation, as well as a heightened security presence attempting to prevent any additional instability. Solace Global Comment: President Bouteflika was considered merely a figurehead since his stroke in 2013. The real decision-making power in the country was believed to be held by a shadowy group of businessmen, politicians and generals known as “le pouvoir” (or “the power”). The country is now entering a period of high political risk, with the protester’s ambitions growing and many wanting a new start. The decision-making establishment, who would normally have control over the situation, is also struggling; General Ahmed Gaid Salah, has tried to but failed, to gain authority over the process. Additionally, the intelligence chief, Athmane Tarag, who was a close ally of Bouteflika, quit this week under pressure from the military. Officials have looked across the region and warned of bloodshed. Indeed, Algeria’s own history offers a warning example of the consequences of the potential conflict; Algeria’s civil war began after Islamists won the first round of free and fair parliamentary election, in 1991. Generals stepped in and cancelled the rest of the voting. Around 200,000 people were killed in the exceptionally politically divided conflict that touched nearly every part of Algeria’s society and lasted until, officially, 2002. ADVICE: Individuals are advised to monitor local media for updates on the political situation. Avoid all demonstrations and gatherings, as well as openly discussing political matters in public. In-country travel disruption is possible as a result of the civil unrest and it is, therefore, recommended to allow additional transport times and be aware of alternate routes to minimise potential delays.

Israel: Nationwide/Gaza border Elections to be held amidst tensions with Gaza. Early legislative elections will be held in Israel on 9 April to elect the members of the Knesset, the unicameral legislature of Israel, which will determine whether the sitting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been in power since 2009, will be granted a fifth term in office. The sitting prime minister is surprisingly trailing in the polls against his opponent, lieutenant-general Benjamin Ganz, former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces. Netanyahu, who historically favours hard-line solutions to deal with Palestinian terrorism and unrest, has recently escalated the political discussion regarding Gaza, reportedly stating that the option of an occupation is still on the table. The statement comes in the context of recent protests along the border between Gaza and Israel, where tens of thousands of Palestinian demonstrators gathered on 30 March to commemorate the first anniversary of the ‘Great March of Return’ with at least four people being killed. The fatalities are reported to have occurred when Israeli troops opened fire after protesters rushed the fence, with numerous injuries recorded. The following day, further clashes took place along the border fence as unrest continued. Additionally, local reports indicated that at least five rockets were fired into the Eshkol Regional Council area of Israel on 31 March, however, only two seem to have landed in deserted areas. No significant damage or casualties were reported. In response to the rocket attack, allegedly perpetrated by Hamas in response to the deaths of the Palestinian protesters (though no group has officially claimed responsibility for the rockets), IDF retaliated with airstrikes, artillery bombardments and targeted tank strikes against suspected Hamas military positions. There were no reports of casualties. ADVICE: Travellers are advised against all but essential travel to Gaza, or to border areas within Israel, due to an increase in tensions, mass protests and military operations. The security environment in the area is expected to deteriorate in the run-up to the election date and possibly the following days. Travellers should remain vigilant and follow local and international news.

European Union Brussels: The 21st EU-China Summit to be held on 9 April. On 9 April the 21st EU-China Summit will take place in Brussels, with the aim of strengthening bilateral cooperation. The European Commission, responsible for determining the Union’s economic and trade agreements, issued a statement declaring that member states won’t be able to achieve their objectives unless they maintain full unity. Apart from trade and investment, key topics that will be addressed during the yearly summit are multilateralism and global governance, human rights, foreign policy issues such as the Venezuelan crisis and the Iran Nuclear Deal, as well as the contentious subject of the security of the 5G network. Notably, EU member states are threatening to refuse to sign a joint statement, like during the 2016 and 2017 Summit, citing the repeated non-fulfilment by the Chinese counterpart of commitments made in the past. In fact, the EU faces great pressure by their populous to hold China accountable for the accusation of repeated violation of human rights, as well as issues related to economy and trade like the protection of intellectual property. Finally, the ongoing trade war between China and the US significantly contributes in creating a more volatile environment for already tense talks. ADVICE: There is a possibility that the Summit could spark demonstrations by human-rights groups protesting Chinese “political education” camps and politically-driven arrests. The protests are expected to be non-violent but might cause additional security measures to be put in place and minor travel disruption in the area.

Significant Dates & Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
5 April	China/Taiwan	Qingming Festival (Tomb Sweeping Day)	LOW
5 April	Nepal	Ghode Jatra (Horse Parade)	LOW
5 April	South Korea	Arbor Day (Shik Mok Il)	LOW
6 April	Burundi	President Ntaryamira Day	LOW
6 April	Maldives	Legislative Elections	LOW
6 April	Mauritius	Ougadi – Public holiday	LOW
6 April	Thailand	Chakri Memorial Day (Public holiday)	LOW
7 April	Mozambique	Mozambique Women’s Day	MODERATE
7 April	Rwanda	Genocide Memorial / National Mourning Day	HIGH
7 April	Tanzania	Sheikh Abeid Amani Karume Day	MODERATE
7 April	Andorra	Legislative Elections	LOW
8 April	Macedonia	International Romani Day	LOW
9 April	Georgia	Restoration of Independence Day	LOW
9 April	Iraq	Baghdad Liberation Day	MODERATE
9 April	Kosovo	Constitution Day	LOW
9 April	Liberia	National Fast and Prayer Day	LOW
9 April	Israel	Legislative Elections	HIGH
9 April	Philippines	Day of Valor (Public holiday)	LOW
9 April	Tunisia	Martyrs’ Day	MODERATE
11 April	Costa Rica	Anniversary of the Battle of Rivas	LOW
11 April	United States	2019 Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia	LOW
11 April	Venezuela	Anniversary of coup that temporarily ousted President Hugo Chavez (Rallies likely)	HIGH

GLOBAL SECURITY FORECAST: WEEK 13 2019

Mali: Mopti Region Over one hundred Fulani people killed in attacks in central Mali Local reports now suggest that at least 134 Fulani herders have been killed in attacks carried out at the villages of Ogossagou and Welingara in the Mopti region, during 23 March. Gunmen, reportedly dressed as local Dogon hunters, encircled the villages and opened fire at the herders and their families, killing indiscriminately. Women, children and elderly people are said to be among the dead. Islamic Jihadist groups with links to Al Qaeda and the Islamic state are active in the region and it is suspected this attack has been perpetrated by such a group. ADVICE: Travellers are advised against all but essential travel to Mali due to the presence of active Islamist terrorist groups. Travellers to Mali are advised to adopt enhanced security measures and have contingency plans in place for all possible emergencies.

Israel: Tel Aviv Israel has carried out retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza following a rocket attack north of Tel Aviv Early on Monday, 25 March, a rocket struck the living quarters of a residential house in Mishmeret; hitting a residential house and injuring seven people. The rocket, understood to be a J-80 rocket, is believed to have been fired at its maximum possible range from an area near Rafah in the Gaza strip; evading Israel’s Iron Dome air-defence system. Israel has responded to the strike as in retaliation to an attack; it conducted airstrikes on believed Hamas-controlled territories in Gaza and mobilized ground forces along the border. Reportedly several buildings associated with Hamas were destroyed in the process. A ceasefire was reached thanks to Egypt mediation; however, this appears to have been disregarded by both sides with limited military actions continuing, despite not targeting residential areas. During the crisis, and following a bilateral summit in Washington DC, President Donald Trump officially announced that the United States officially recognise Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights, contested territory and occupied by controversial settlements. The announcement has sparked international outrage and has been seen as a political stunt to support incumbent President Netanyahu ahead of the elections later in April. ADVICE: For more, read our Travel Advisory: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/israel-carried-retaliatory-airstrikes-gaza-following-rocket-attack-north-tel-aviv/

Mozambique: Beira At least 138 cholera cases recorded in cyclone-hit Beira as officials struggle to contain the spread of the disease At least 138 cholera cases have been recorded in Beira, Mozambique, following Cyclone Idai that struck the area on 14 March. The storm resulted in catastrophic flooding and killed more than 700 people across three countries in southeast Africa. Although there have yet to be any confirmed cholera deaths in a medical centre in Mozambique yet, at least two people have died outside of hospitals with symptoms including dehydration and diarrhoea. Additionally, a deceased child was reportedly brought into an emergency clinic earlier in the week also with symptoms consistent with cholera. Communities in the region have been left isolated and stranded by the storm and are relying on heavily polluted water in order to survive. As such, it is highly likely that further cases will be reported in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, a rise in the death toll is likely in the weeks ahead, as aid organisations are struggling to provide assistance in the region. ADVICE: Avoid all non-essential travel. To have a more in-depth look at the long-term impact of the cyclone, have a look at our Travel Advisory on Cyclone Idai: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/cyclone-idai-kills-hundred-causes-long-term-humanitarian-crisis-south-eastern-africa/

Algeria: Algiers Army chief calls for President Bouteflika to be ruled unfit to govern Following weeks of unrest in the country following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement that he’ll seek a fifth term as president in the now delayed April elections, the country’s army chief, General Ahmed Gaid Salah, has stated that the president should be declared unfit to rule. The announcement by the head of the country’s highly influential military is an important step in the crisis. In fact, despite the ongoing unrest, announcements that Bouteflika would not seek a fifth term and delays to the election, an actual resolution appeared out of reach. Overall, tensions appeared to be increasing and are sparking fears, both inside the country and in the international community, of a political crisis escalating into full-scale violence. However, while some hope for a new Arab Spring 2.0 in Algeria, it appears that the current situation has greater similarities to Egypt in 2013 when the military removed the Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi from the government. The military has put forward a suggested road map for the country to manage the transition following almost 20 years of Bouteflika rule. Simply replacing Bouteflika is unlikely to fully resolve the crisis, as the demonstrations have also been directed at the entire ruling elite – veterans of a long-since won independence war against France – plus, their allies in the army, businesses, legislature and unions. All these groups could lose significant influence through any succession; managed or not. However, it is understood that the country’s opposition has rejected the army chief’s proposed road map. Several opposition parties and protesters denounced the general’s remarks as an attempt to stifle their movement; even as a breakaway faction within Algeria’s ruling party, National Liberation Front (FLN) has backed the call. ADVICE: Travellers and businesses are advised to continue monitoring media sources and official announcements. The situation may escalate with little or no warning. Maintain flexible itineraries and be prepared to alter or cancel trips at short notice should tensions escalate. Additionally, be prepared for potential mobile network and internet outages.

Venezuela: Caracas Russian military personnel have arrived in Caracas to “discuss military cooperation” The members of the Russian military who have arrived in Caracas will not take part in any operations according to the Venezuelan military attaché in Moscow. Instead, it is being reported that the military personnel have been deployed to the country to discuss cooperation. President Donald Trump has stated that “Russia has to get out” whilst also hosting self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó’s wife Fabiana Rosales. According to media reports, two Russian air force planes landed outside of the capital on Sunday, 24 March, carrying nearly 100 troops. It is believed that the troops were special forces and include cyber experts. Russia has not directly commented on the troops but did state that unlike officials in Washington “Russia is not threatening anyone”. Solace Global Comment: The deployment of Russian military officials is likely an attempt by Russia to protect its investments in the country. Moscow has invested/lent/given billions of dollars in the past as well as playing an active role in joint ventures with the country’s oil industry. The deployment of troops is not a sign of an escalation at this time but may heighten tensions. ADVICE: Continue to avoid all travel to the country.

Tunisia: Tunis Arab League Summit set to be held in Tunis on 31 March Tunisia is set to host the 2019 Arab League summit at the Council of Arab Interior Ministers’ headquarters in the capital Tunis, on Sunday 31 March. Tunisian diplomats are hoping to play a mediating role in the summit, with the objective of projecting a unified opposition to President Trump’s recent acknowledgement of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, bitter rivalries remain amongst member states which are likely to be exposed during the talks. The Gulf states of Saudi Arabi and UAE are unlikely to express strong statements of condemnation in an effort to maintain good relations with the US – who are currently putting pressure on their main rival Iran. Moreover, member states have differing views over the current conflicts raging in Yemen and Syria, the latter remaining suspended from the league since the beginning of the uprising against Bashir Al Assad in 2011. Police and military personnel have been deployed across the city and security has been tightened at both land and sea borders in the run-up to the summit. Although no specific threats have been identified, the summit could be viewed as a high-profile target by terror organisations or as an opportunity to protest a multitude of issues affecting the region. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to expect heightened security in the city and to anticipate delays to journeys.

Turkey: Nationwide Turkey to increase security nationwide ahead of vital local elections on 31 March Turkey is set to elect mayors and local officials on 31 March in a race that is seen as a test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party following last year’s crisis and the ongoing economic instability. These are the first elections since the 2018 presidential election, which saw the implementation of the major constitutional changes introduced through popular vote in 2017. The referendum made the president both the head of state and the head of government in Turkey; take over the latter role from the now-abolished role of the prime minister. As such, these elections are seen as a major test for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). The last regional elections in March 2014 resulted in the victory for the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), who won both Istanbul and Ankara. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) came second, winning control of İzmir, Turkey’s third largest city. The elections, including the presidential elections in 2018, carried accusations of electoral fraud and malpractice which sparked numerous protests nationwide. Turkey is preparing to increase security measure nationwide ahead of the election due to the risk of unrest but also due to the threat posed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Violence cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Travellers should keep abreast of the latest information as there is the potential for protest action and counter-demonstrations during the campaign period of the local elections. These protests may also escalate into violent clashes in some areas; however, this risk remains low at this stage.

Ukraine: Nationwide First presidential election since Russian annexation of Crimea set to be held on 31 March Ukraine is set to hold its first presidential election on 31 March; with the second round of voting being carried out on 21 April if no candidate receives an absolute majority. There are 34,544,993 people are eligible to vote in the elections; however, roughly 12 per cent of the eligible voters will not be able to participate due to the annexation of Crimea by Russia as well as the continued separatist occupation of eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. By barring a number of voters due to the occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in the east of the country, Russian leaning candidates are highly unlikely to gain much ground in the election. Indeed, the main Russia-leaning candidate, Yuriy Boyko, is currently polling fourth behind former comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, current President Petro Poroshenko and Pro-EU politician Yulia Tymoshenko. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while normal travel to the majority of Ukraine can continue, a heightened security presence and police checkpoints should be expected. Monitor all official announcements and the latest media reports for further information regarding the elections and the security situation. If possible, as a precaution, consider deferring travel this weekend (30 March- 1 April) in order to minimise potential risk to travel. Russian travellers should ensure they have adequate documentation justifying their journeys and should also be prepared for entry being barred. Travel to the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and to the disputed Crimea should be avoided and is banned to all except those with a specific purpose (journalists, aid workers or other non-governmental organisational workers). Additionally, travel to Russian controlled Crimea may later impede travel to Ukraine and vice-versa.

Significant Dates & Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
29 March	United Kingdom	Brexit (Delayed)	LOW
29 March	Central African Republic	Barthelemy Boganda Day	LOW
29 March	Chile	Day of the Young Combatant	LOW
29 March	Madagascar	Martyrs’ Day	LOW
29 March	Israel/Palestine	Anniversary of March of Return	SEVERE
30 March	Israel	Land Day	MODERATE
30 March	Slovakia	Presidential Run-Off Election	LOW
30 March	Trinidad and Tobago	Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day	LOW
31 March	Ukraine	First Round of Presidential Election	MODERATE
31 March	Turkey	Legislative Elections	LOW
31 March	Tunis	Arab League Summit	LOW
1 April	Benin	Youth Day	LOW
1 April	Iran	Islamic Republic Day	MODERATE
1 April	Cyprus	Cyprus: Greek Cypriot National Day	LOW
2 April	Argentina	Veterans Day / Sovereignty Day / Malvinas Day	LOW
3 April	Guinea	Anniversary of the Second Republic	LOW
4 April	Senegal	Independence Day	LOW
5 April	China & Taiwan	Qingming Festival	LOW
6 April	Thailand	Chakri Memorial Day	LOW
7 April	Rwanda	Genocide memorial and National Mourning Day	LOW

Global Security Forecast: Week 12 2019

Netherlands: Utrecht At least three people killed following suspected terrorist shooting on tram; suspects confesses On 18 March, Turkish born Gokmen Tanis opened fire on a tram in the Dutch city of Utrecht. The tram was located at 24 Octoberplein when the incident occurred and stopped in the middle of a road junction. Three people were killed in the attack with a further seven hospitalised. The assailant fled the scene following the attack with police quick to respond; effectively locking down the city. Three of those wounded remain in a critical condition following the attack Police stated that they suspected a terrorist motive and, on Friday, 22 March, prosecutors reiterated this suspicion. It is also believed that a letter in the hijacked vehicle that the suspect left supports this hypothesis. However, investigations are also stated to see if this terrorist motive was “combined” with any personal problems. According to people who knew the perpetrator, he suffered from drug and alcohol addiction and was, at times, “insane”. However, contrary to this, others stated that he preached righteousness and was a pious Muslim on certain days and drunk or drugged the next day. He also had a verdict pending on a rape case and had been arrested for shoplifting and illegal firearms possession. Another man, believed to be in his 40s, was reportedly arrested by police on 19 March. ADVICE: Acts of terrorism are not uncommon in Europe. Travellers should also expect heightened security in Utrecht and the rest of the country.

Mozambique: Beira Widespread destruction as majority of Beira is submerged following Cyclone Idai On 14 March, Cyclone Idai hit the port city of Beira in Mozambique, before proceeding inland and impacting the neighbouring countries of Zimbabwe and Malawi. The storm was followed by several days of rainfall that caused extreme flooding in most of central Mozambique and forming what have been defined as “inland oceans”. There are also significant shortages in food, water, fuel and medicine. While relief operations are ongoing, the disaster is likely to have severe medium- and long-term consequences that might trigger a region-wide humanitarian crisis The cyclone, which is being termed the worst weather-related disaster in the southern hemisphere, has affected 2.6 million people and caused critical damage to the majority of structures, including houses, roads, bridges and powerlines in the region. The heavy rains that followed the cyclone have resulted in heavy flooding, with rising water levels causing both additional infrastructural damage and hindering the efforts to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of aid operations. Entire regions and towns have been left isolated, with inhabitants stranded on rooftops and trees, making it challenging to deliver aid and locate survivors due to a complete failure in the communication infrastructure. There are currently severe shortages in food, water, fuel and medicine, which has put a strain on operations in the region. According to the World Food Program (WFP), these are not expected to be resolved in the short term and the power grid is not expected to be restored before at least April. Although an accurate assessment of the damage and death toll is still unclear, this has been rated as the worst weather-related disaster in the southern hemisphere. To date, approximately 217 victims have been confirmed in Mozambique, 139 in Zimbabwe and 56 in Malawi. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to avoid non-essential travel to the region. Furthermore, expect significant disruption to both transport in the region and the medical, electrical and communication infrastructure in the affected countries. To read more, see our latest travel advisory: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/cyclone-idai-kills-hundred-causes-long-term-humanitarian-crisis-south-eastern-africa/

Iraq: Mosul Almost 100 people have died after a ferry sank in the Tigris River At least 19 children and 61 women were among the 94 people that are reported to have died following the sinking of a ferry in the Tigris near Mosul. According to media reports, 55 people were rescued from the water with around 200 people thought to be aboard the vessel. The ferry was heading towards a tourist island, Umm Rabaen island, as part of new year celebrations. The vessel is understood to have turned sharply and tilted sharply to the right before taking on water. It then flipped over entirely and was caught in the strong currents of the river. The ferry was reportedly overloaded for the journey and following the tilting and the inundation of water; the vessel began to sink. Authorities had reportedly warned people about rising water levels as the gates of the Mosul dam had been opened, and some are accusing the ship operator of ignoring the advice. ADVICE: Travellers should not take ferries in Iraq; safety standards are considered poor. Additionally, vessels often operate overcapacity and perform unsafe manoeuvres; as demonstrated by the recent incident. In general, public transport throughout the country should be avoided with only pre-booked security vetted transport being used.

China: Yangcheng Large explosion in a chemical plant in eastern China kills 47 On Friday 22 March in the early morning, China suffered one of the worst industrial accident in recent times, when a chemical factory in the city of Yangcheng in Jiangsu province. The blast killed 47 and injured 90, severely damaging factory structures and building within a 3km radius. People living in the vicinity of the site have been moved due to fears of additional blasts or leaks. Industrial incidents are considered relatively common in China, where health and safety standard can be poorly enforced at times, despite the government’s efforts to reduce their number. In November 2018, for instance, an explosion close to a chemical industry in northern China killed 23 people and injured 22. ADVICE: Travellers should avoid the affected area, while remaining aware of the polluting effects of the chemical smokes released by the explosion. Emergency services and hospitals are likely to have slower response times due to the facilities being overloaded with those affected by the blast.

Kazakhstan: Astana (renamed Nursultan) President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his resignation In a statement, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his resignation after almost three decades in office. Nazarbayev has been in office since 24 April 1990 when he was elected as the nation’s first president following its independence from the Soviet Union. Speaker of the Senate Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev will fulfil the duties of the President of the country before the elections. As Kazakstan’s first president he was granted the right to run an unlimited amount of times and in the 2015 election, he won 97.7 percent of the vote. While the reason for the resignation is unclear, many believe the decision is designed to strengthen the president’s legacy. It is also unclear whether Nazarbaev, who is now 78, would take another position. In honour of the outgoing president, the capital, Astana, has been renamed Nursultan. ADVICE: Travellers in the country are advised to be aware that there may be rallies in support of the president which may result in disruption. At this time, it is unlikely that any instability or unrest will occur; however, media sources and further Solace Secure alerts should be monitored in case instability results from the announcement.

Venezuela: Caracas Venezuelan agents detain and search homes of Guaido’s aide On 21 March, Venezuelan intelligence agents detained Roberto Marrero, chief of staff to opposition leader Juan Guaido. Marrero was accused of planning acts of sabotage against officials and was detained following an operation to dismantle a terrorist cell. Moreover, authorities stated that weapons were discovered by Venezuelan agents during a raid on his home. Guaido responded to these accusations claiming that the items allegedly found had been planted. Marrero’s detention has provoked international disapproval leading to a number of governments to condemn these acts and to demand his immediate release. Local sources reported that the home of Guaido’s attorney, Sergio Vergara, was also searched, however, he was not taken into custody nor charged. This event follows Guaido’s involvement in a power struggle with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, currently facing international pressure to resign amid an escalating economic and humanitarian crisis. Supporters of political leader Juan Guaido’s are likely to stage protests following the arrest. ADVICE: Protests in Venezuela are currently violent and have led to a significant deterioration of the security environment. In relation to this, on 22 March, American Airlines suspended their flights to Venezuela, citing the ongoing political unrest. For this reason, all non-essential travel to Venezuela should be avoided and travellers in-country should review their evacuation options. Consular services are not available in parts of Venezuela and food, water and fuel shortages have been reported.

Europe: Brussels European Union agrees a conditional Brexit extension Media reporting indicates that The European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit process. Should UK Prime Minister Theresa May succeed in getting Members of Parliament to back her withdrawal agreement, the process will be extended until 22 May in order for supplementary legislation to pass parliament. However, should MPs reject the agreement, the extension will last only until 12 April. The UK had previously been due to leave the EU on 29 March. Media reporting indicates that The European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit process. Should UK Prime Minister Theresa May succeed in getting Members of Parliament to back her withdrawal agreement, the process will be extended until 22 May in order for supplementary legislation to pass parliament. However, should MPs reject the agreement, the extension will last only until 12 April. The UK had previously been due to leave the EU on 29 March. ADVICE: Preparations for a no-deal Brexit are unclear, businesses and travellers should make preparations as a contingency.

Pakistan: Nationwide Pakistan Day celebrations likely on 23 March Pakistan day is due to be celebrated nationwide on 23 March. Vehicle access to certain areas of Islamabad will be restricted between 19-23 March for military preparations a parade. Road closures and detours are expected to be in effect for this period. Heightened security is likely in response to the persistent terrorist threat in Pakistan. There is a possibility of celebratory gunfire in rural areas. ADVICE: Travellers are strongly advised to avoid large public gatherings in Pakistan. Travellers should also monitor local media for updates regarding road closures in Islamabad and other major Pakistani cities. If in the vicinity of celebratory gunfire, travellers are advised to seek hard cover for at least 15 minutes after the last gunshot.

Thailand: Nationwide Elections in Thailand are set to take place on 24 March after five years of military rule. Bangkok is set to hold its first democratic elections since the 2014 military coup d’état that followed the previous electoral process and subsequent violent confrontation in the streets. The campaigning started in December 2018 and followed the historical political divide between conservative pro-junta forces and populist ones, although politically-motivated insurgency seems to have significantly subsided over the past years. However, tensions in the country are still a source of concern, as popular desire for free and fair democratic elections has been frustrated by repeated delays of the election dates and the decision to outlaw a newly formed opposition party due to its candidacy of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Barnavadi. The new constitution, introduced in 2017 and heavily favouring the ruling military junta, has also been perceived as an attempt to prevent any significant gain by the opposition forces, which have won every election since 2001 only to be overthrown by the military establishment. The latest polls show that most of the population will vote in favour of the democratic anti-military parties and a skewed election may frustrate the voting population and lead to episodes of civil unrest, in which case military retaliation is to be expected. However, due to historical precedents, it is also possible that the Thai population would accept a pro-establishment government in order to prevent further political repression and, in the most extreme scenario, another coup. ADVICE: Travellers in Thailand should keep up to date with local news and expect episode of unrest or friction at polling stations, especially in the nation’s capital. There is also a chance that the highly symbolic election and large gatherings could be targeted by terrorist action, so anticipate heightened security at public venues and exercise increased vigilance. Travellers should also avoid discussing the political situation and openly criticise the military junta or the monarchy, as it might be considered a crime.

Israel/Palestine: Gaza and West Bank One-year anniversary of the “March of Return”; violent protests expected Next Friday will be the anniversary of the start of the “Great March of Return” protests in Gaza. Since protests began on 30 March 2018, Israeli forces have killed at least 214 Palestinians and wounded more than 18,000. The next demonstration coincides with Land Day, which commemorates the date in 1976 when Israel announced the seizure of thousands of dunams (a Middle Eastern measurement unit equivalent to around 1,000 square metres) of Palestinian land for “state purposes” and is recognised as a pivotal event in the struggle over land and in the relationship of Arab citizens to the Israeli state.’ According to media sources, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing for tens of thousands of Palestinians to gather along the Israel-Gaza border and will be deploying additional troops and heightening security. Furthermore, according to IDF assessments, Hamas will seek to surpass last years protests by transporting more than 50,000 people to the main protest points along the border fence. The anniversary comes as Hamas has suffered protests against themselves due to the frustrations of local Palestinians protesting over the conditions under Hamas rule. Thus far, Hamas has been able to control the unrest by either forcibly removing street protesters. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to expect heightened security throughout the West Bank and at all border checkpoints in the coming days and especially next Friday. Be aware that protests may occur throughout the West Bank and Israel with little or no warning and may result in clashes.

SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
22 March	Laos	Day of the People’s Party	LOW
22 March	Puerto Rico	Emancipation Day	LOW
23 March	Pakistan	Pakistan Resolution Day	LOW
24 March	Argentina	Truth and Justice Day	LOW
25 March	Greece/Cyprus	Greek Independence Day	LOW
26 March	Bangladesh	Bangladesh Independence Day	MODERATE
26 March	Mali	Martyrs’ Day	MODERATE
27 March	Myanmar	Armed Forces Day	LOW
29 March	United Kingdom	Brexit (Delayed)	LOW
29 March	Central African Republic	Barthelemy Boganda Day	LOW
29 March	Chile	Day of the Young Combatant	LOW
29 March	Madagascar	Martyrs’ Day	LOW
29 March	Israel/Palestine	Anniversary of March of Return	SEVERE
30 March	Israel	Land Day	MODERATE
30 March	Slovakia	Presidential Run-Off Election	LOW
30 March	Trinidad and Tobago	Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day	LOW

Maritime Snapshot Weeks 11 & 12

Maritime Incidents in weeks 11 and 12

Americas 10 March: Attempted robbery in Macapa, Brazil Two robbers armed with knives boarded an anchored bulk carrier using a rope with a hook in Macapa Anchorage, Brazil. The duty AB on routine rounds spotted the robbers and immediately informed the OOW, who raised the alarm. PA announcement was made and all crew mustered. Seeing the alerted crew, the robbers escaped without stealing anything. The incident was reported to the Port Authorities.

Gulf of Guinea 8 March: Vessel approached near Brass, Nigeria Underway tanker approached by two skiffs with 4 POB at 1502 UTC around 35nm SSE of Brass, Nigeria. One skiff closed to within 2 cables. Vessel conducted evasive manoeuvres resulting in skiffs moving away. 9 March: additional attack near Brass; possibly same pirates from an earlier attack Underway OSV attacked by two speedboats at 1550 UTC approximately 21nm SSE of Brass, Nigeria. Speedboats w/ 6 armed POB in each fired upon escorting security vessel. Unconfirmed reports stated several pirates and one security personnel killed. Pirates in the second speedboat reportedly boarded OSV. Vessel and crew are safe at Bonny Anchorage.

Kidnapping in the Gulf of Guinea 9 March: Vessel and escort attacked near Brass, Nigeria Pirates armed with machine guns in two speedboats approached an underway offshore support vessel at 1115 UTC around 32nm SE of Brass. The captain immediately notified the naval escort security boat which manoeuvred to engage the attackers. One speed boat closed in from the port side of the vessel and crossed the bow, while the other speed boat exchanged fire with the security boat. The alarm raised, the crew also proceeded to the engine room and all power was shut down. The pirates boarded the vessel with the aid of an elongated ladder. They broke into the accommodation, vandalised the cabins and took crew belongings and vessel properties. The pirates then proceeded to the engine room, kidnapped five men and escaped. The remaining crew sailed the OSV under escort to a safe anchorage. One Nigerian Navy armed guard was reported killed in the exchange of fire between the naval security boat and the pirates.

Indian Ocean & HRA 20 March: Well known Somali pirate killed in Mugug region A well known Somali pirate has reportedly been killed in Golfula district, Mudug region. Ahmed Mohamud (50) used to be a high profile leader in Somali piracy and, according to sources, was assassinated two days ago after leaving Hobyo city heading for the city of Galkayo. According to eyewitnesses, Mohamud was abducted by unknown gunmen prior to his assassination. It is believed that the former pirate was in the area trying to recruit a new generation of pirates in the region.

A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week

Changes to the High Risk Area in the Indian Ocean announced; measure to come into effect 1 May 2019 (map to the right) The Round Table of international shipping associations, as well as the OCIMF, who represent the global shipping and oil industry have announced that the geographic boundaries of the ‘High Risk Area’ (HRA) for piracy in the Indian Ocean will be reduced starting from 1 May. Additionally, there will be new advice issued to merchant ship operators. The reduction of the HRA reflects the ongoing containment of the threat from pirate attacks in the region. Despite the reduction, the shipping associations have urged that vigilance and adherence to the 5th edition of the best management practice to deter piracy (BMP5) remains vital to the long term success in the region. The threat of pirate attack off the coast of Somalia, as well as terrorist inspired piracy in the Gulf of Aden, remain possible. According to officials, the reduction in the HRA has been made whilst taking into account pirate intent, the capability of the navies operating in the region and crucially the merchant shipping industry. Indeed, the decision was only made after extensive consultations with military forces in the region, including Combined Maritime Forces, EUNAVFOR and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which continue to provide vital advice and protection to shipping. This is the second reduction, after the one to the current limits in 2015, and does not change the advice for vessels travelling through the Gulf of Aden or to/from the Red Sea. The Voluntary Reporting Area (VRA). Additionally, Ships entering the VRA will still be encouraged to register with the Maritime Security Centre for the Horn of Africa (MSCHOA) and report to the United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO). Despite the reduction, the threat of pirate attacks do continue and shipping companies should continue to maintain full compliance with BMP5. Additionally, the industry associations will adjust the HRA again if the situation warrants it. www.Oceanuslive.org Somali troops have withdrawn from villages on outskirts of Mogadishu Numerous Somali troops have withdrawn from their posts in Mahadaay, Jowar and other villages over unpaid salaries and lack of rations. The withdrawals have allowed Al Shabaab militants to capture the vacated bases and villages; causing them to move within closer range of the capital. Should the withdrawals continue, the outskirt areas of Mogadishu may come into range of mortar fire. This includes the airport and the UN compound. These gains by militants have been coupled with the African Union’s UN mission withdrawing or looking to withdraw troops from the country. This has left the Somali military the sole line of defence in some areas. Should the lack of pay and rations continue; then the depleted African Union troops may be targeted by Al Shabaab attacks; testing strength and defences in the Mogadishu area. All non-essential foreign staff will likely be evacuated in response to any further deterioration of the security environment. However, no official sources are reporting this at this time. Should Mogadishu come under siege, or direct attack, the maritime threat in the region will rise significantly: Al Shabaab disruptive actions will impact international trade and fishermen whose livelihoods have been destroyed will likely turn to piracy. Iranian naval forces are arresting Chinese fishing poachers The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Naval Command have issued an official statement on Chinese fishing vessels who have been violating the terms of the 2011 fisheries agreement between Tehran and Beijing. According to the statement, the Chinese vessels have been “poaching” in the waters of Southern Iran, including in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Several Chinese fishing vessels have reportedly been detained as a result of the poaching and Iran is now considering a ban on foreign vessels in Iranian waters. Along with fishing vessels, a reefer, possibly the KOOSHA 3, was detained with holds full of frozen fish allegedly collected from Chinese fishing vessels.

Global Security Forecast: Week 11 2019

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Ethiopian Airlines 737 crashes en route to Nairobi; 737 MAX aircraft grounded globally as a result of the crash An Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 has crashed whilst en route to Nairobi, Kenya. The location of the crash is, as yet, unconfirmed. It is likely that hundreds of lives have been lost. An investigation and recovery effort are underway. As a result of the incident, which is the second for the new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, all 737 MAX aircraft have now been ground indefinitely until the cause for the accidents is found. The groundings do not affect older 737 and the impact on airlines has been limited. It is likely the aircraft will be grounded at least until the cause of the Ethiopian Airlines crash is determined. ADIVCE: The impact of the groundings of such a new aircraft have been limited. Most airlines only have a handful of the aircraft type, this has meant that flight schedules have been unaltered. Travellers are advised to contact their airline for advice regarding their itinerary.

New Zealand: Christchurch Terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch on 15 March At around 13:40 local time at least three shooters entered two mosques in Christchurch New Zealand. As a result of the attacks, at least 49 people are said to have been killed. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has stated that the attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, can only be described as a terrorist attack. She has also stated that it appears that there was a high degree of planning by the perpetrators. To read more, see our latest travel advisory

Algeria: Nationwide Protest continue as president states he will not stand for fifth term; but delays election Protests are continuing in Algeria despite President Abdelaziz Bouteflika stating he will not run for a fifth term in office. The protesters are demanding that the president resigns from office immediately and that the elections are held as planned in April. To read more, see our latest travel advisory

Venezuela: Nationwide Large protests in Caracas as blackout continues Nationwide blackouts continue after power was restored to parts of Caracas and other areas around the country. According to media reports, traffic lights are functioning in some areas the capital, but the metro system remains closed. Some areas have been without electricity for over 48 hours and the blackout is affecting healthcare facilities. Internet monitoring organisations also reported that 96 percent of the country is without access to mobile telecommunication networks after the most recent power outage. On the 9 March rival protests were held in different parts of Caracas to support Maduro or Guaido who both claim the Presidency. There were a number of scuffles with police and several injured. Mr Guaido, who leads the opposition controlled National Assembly, has been recognised as interim president by more than 50 countries. However, Mr Maduro retains the support of the military and close allies including Russia and China. The continuing blackout is only heightening tensions. ADVICE: Individuals in Venezuela are advised to monitor the political situation and to avoid all public demonstrations due to the risk of violence and arrest. Due to the tense political situation, local security officials have enhanced measures to enforce the rule of law. It is recommended to adhere to instructions, such as curfews and identity checks, and avoid open criticism of the current government or its officials. Due to the ongoing risk of instability, it is advised to leave the country as soon as possible.

United Kingdom: Nationwide The IRA has claimed responsibility for the recent parcel bombs in London and Glasgow A group, calling itself the IRA, has claimed responsibility for the parcel bombs sent to London transport hubs and the University of Glasgow last week. A spokesperson from the Metropolitan Police announced that the group has claimed to have sent five devices, of which only four have been detected. Police investigations into the parcel bombs are ongoing. ADVICE: Further suspicious items are possible in the coming days and weeks. Travellers are advised that if in the vicinity of the suspicious item, not to touch or inspect it, report the item to a member of staff, security personnel, or the authorities, informing them of the exact location of the device. Adhere to all police instructions.

United Kingdom: Westminster British government votes to delay Brexit Members of the UK House of Commons have rejected an altered Brexit withdrawal agreement that had been brought before them by Prime Minister Theresa May by a margin of 149 votes. It was judged that the Prime Minister had failed to make sufficient changes to the withdrawal agreement that was rejected in January 2019. The vote was followed by a series of votes, including whether to pursue a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit. Both of which were rejected. As such Britain now must wait to see if the EU accepts the delay. ADVICE: Protests are likely in the coming weeks, both if Britain is granted a delay and if the country is forced to leave without a deal. It remains highly likely that political change will occur with a general election, second referendum or continued stalemate all equally possible.

Brazil: Sao Paulo School shooting resulted in eight deaths in Suzano, Sao Paulo, on 13 March Two former pupils are understood to have carried out a school shooting in Suzano, near Sao Paulo, on Wednesday 13 March. The two males reportedly fired indiscriminately at students and teachers. Military police and emergency services attended the scene, the perpetrators are reported to have committed suicide before being apprehended. In total, five pupils, a school administrator and a teacher were killed before the two perpetrators killed themselves. The two attackers had been close friends since childhood and used to spend a lot of time together playing video games and were often seen at a local gaming arcade. Earlier in the day, the two attackers had shot dead the younger one’s uncle. A state official said the younger gunman “had never shown any problems” at school; however, it is believed that he, and possibly the older attacker, had been bullied at the school. ADVICE: Crime rates and gang related crime is high in Brazil; however, incidents of this nature are uncommon. Travellers are advised to be aware of their surroundings and ensure they adhere,

Israel: Tel Aviv Multiple long-range rockets launched at Tel Aviv Local reports suggest at least two long-range rockets have been fired at the Tel Aviv metropolitan area from Gaza. Warning sirens were activated prior to the attack, in which no casualties or damage has been reported. One of the missiles was reportedly destroyed by Tel Aviv’s ‘Iron Dome’ defence system, the other landed in the Mediterranean Sea. This is the first attack of this kind since 2014, Hamas has denied responsibility. Israel has carried out air strikes in the port west area of Khan Younis in response to the rocket attacks. Up to 100 retaliatory attacks have been launched across Gaza, targeting Hamas sites and Islamic Jihad. ADVICE: Travellers in Tel Aviv should ensure they are familiar with what actions to take in the event warning sirens are activated. Travellers should seek shelter and remain there for at least ten minutes upon hearing sirens.

India: Nationwide Holi Festival 20-21 March The celebration of the Holi festival will be held across India on 20-21 March, attracting visitors worldwide for its colourful celebratory powders and the nationwide celebrations. Generally, the scale of the event and the number of participants, it is important for visitors to pay attention to crowd movements, which have caused incidents before. Crimes such as pickpocketing are also fairly common during the festival. However, the biggest risks are faced by female participants to the festival, as the celebration is often used as an excuse for harassment, which reportedly skyrockets during the days of the festival, from groping to rape and to the point where it has been reported that young women were targeted by “semen-filled balloons”. Men are also known to consume a cannabis-derived liquid and harassing women, especially in big groups. ADVICE: Female travellers should exercise extreme caution if celebrating the festival, either in Delhi or elsewhere, and avoid going to the celebrations alone. It is advised for foreigners to celebrate in groups, exercise vigilance and keep an eye on their belonging. If approached by groups of intoxicated individuals, travellers should avoid confrontation and seek the assistance of local law enforcement. Women should avoid larger gatherings and stick to familiar surroundings, as well as respect avoid leaving their hotel after dark.

United States: Washington DC Trump – Bolsonaro Summit 17-20 March Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Washington DC early next week, in it first bilateral summit with the United States since taking office since 1 January 2019. Brazil and the US being the biggest economies in the Americas and both Presidents having run on a populist and conservative platform, there is a great curiosity in whether the summit will result in a new entente between the two countries, which could greatly impact the region. Among the most pressing topics to be discussed are certainly the Venezuela crisis – both nations recognised Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela – , trade and the role that Washington is going to play in the region moving ahead. To read more please see https://www.solaceglobal.com//wp-content/uploads/2019/03/20190308-Global-Security-Forecast-Week-11.pd

The Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings

On 10 March, a Boeing 737 MAX 8 lost contact six minutes after departing from Bole International Airport in the Ethiopian capital, heading to Nairobi. All 157 passengers and crew aboard the Ethiopian Airline flight were killed when the plane crashed south of the town of Bishoftu.

This incident comes after the same model, operated by Lion Air, crashed into the Java Sea after leaving Jakarta. The two accidents in quick succession and the noted similarity between them has led to, on 11 and 12 March, several countries and airlines grounding their fleet of Boeing 737 MAXs due to safety concerns.

Aviation regulators in China, Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore, Argentina, UK, Norway and Australia have suspended flights as a precautionary measure. Other countries that have announced a suspension on some Boeing 737 Max 8 planes are; Brazil, Cayman Islands, Ethiopia, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, South Africa and South Korea. Initial figures show that nearly 40 percent of the fleet of 371 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft worldwide are grounded.

A spokesman for the UK Civil Aviation Authority stated that this is a precautionary measure and that they are in contact with industry regulators to seek the best course of action. The UK’s suspension affects TUI Airways who have five Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft based in the UK. The other leading operator of this aircraft type flying out of the UK is Norwegian Air Shuttle, which has 18 aircraft. Norwegian Airlines, themselves, issued instructions to stop flights until further notice.

However, several airlines in America have continued operating the aircraft. Southwest Airlines, the largest 737 MAX 8 operator, remains confident in the safety of its entire fleet. In a statement, the airline said, “We have been in contact with Boeing and will continue to stay close to the investigation as it progresses.”

Initial reports suggest that the suspension is expected to last until a risk assessment is conducted on Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes. The Boeing Company issued a statement claiming that, at present, they will not issue new guidance to operators.

Going forward

It is unclear how long the aircrafts will remain grounded as there is not sufficient data on the cause of the accident. This means that cancellations, delays and other travel-related disruptions are anticipated. A number of other airlines have stated that they are monitoring the situation and therefore further bans may still be issued. So far minimal disruptions have been experienced with two Istanbul to London Gatwick flights being turned around during flight to return to Istanbul. Boeing have a large fleet of planes and it is likely that flights will continue with replacement aircrafts. Travellers should continue to check their itinerary and consult with their travel provider or airline official to check the status of their flight.

Despite the groundings, the fact that the 737 MAX is a new aircraft, airlines only have them in limited numbers. This has limited the impact of the groundings on airlines. Additionally, the regular, older 737s remain in use. Various models of these planes have been flying since 1967 and the aircraft has one of the best safety records among modern aircraft. Airlines and Boeing take safety extremely seriously, travellers should not be concerned regardless of what aircraft they are flying.

Global Security Forecast: Week 10 2019

Algeria: Nationwide Anti-government protests underway nationwide Demonstrations against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement to run for a fifth term in office have organised nationwide. Protests have been out on the streets of Algiers, centred mainly outside the Universities of Bejaia and Bouira. Large crowds and limited scenes of unrest and even clashes were also reported in Oran, Constantine, Setif, Tizi Ouzou, and Bouira. As a result of the widespread protests, there has been significant disruptions to travel and services. In Algiers, public transportation services were suspended and the Algiers Metro was closed. Demonstrations in Algeria are banned. It has been reported that on 1 March, at least 100 people were wounded in clashes between protesters and police across the country. There is a heightened security presence across the country, particularly surrounding demonstrations. The country’s military has also condemned the unrest and called for a halt to the protests. ADVICE: Demonstrations in Algeria are banned; anticipate a heightened security presence near demonstration sites. Current protests are known to turn violent with little notice; further clashes between protesters and police cannot be ruled out. Travellers are advised to continue to monitor the political situation. Businesses and travellers should now start looking ahead and considering altering travel arrangements in the build-up to the election should unrest continue.

South Korea: Nationwide North Korea has condemned the joint US – South Korea military drills in the region On Thursday, 7 March, North Korea denounced the ongoing joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington as an “all out challenge” to moves towards peace on the Korean peninsula. The US and South Korea had agreed on Sunday to replace two major war games that take place every spring, known as the “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills”, with a shorter “Dong Maeng” or “Alliance” exercise. The joint drills commenced this week and involve tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers and a large number of the 30,000 US troops posted in South Korea. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while the likelihood of a conflict remains remote, international incidents or accidental clashes between the opposing militaries may result in an increase in tensions.

Guinea-Bissau: Nationwide Final stages of election campaigns underway ahead of vote on 10 March Guinea-Bissau is set to hold legislative elections on 10 March, with the Presidential vote predicted to follow shortly after. As such, election campaigns have begun in the country dubbed as Africa’s first “narco” state. The upcoming elections are already the subject of international scrutiny, having been postponed from the original date of 18 November 2018 – due to two suspensions to voter registration, following allegations of irregularities. As such, ambassadors from the UN Security Council have met with the incumbent President José Mário Vaz, along with opposition party leaders and the country’s electoral commission, in an effort to promote free and fair elections. The former Portuguese colony has been in political crisis since August 2015, when President Vaz sacked his then Prime Minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, on corruption charges. This resulted in the dissolution of the government and caused bitter divisions within the main PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde) to which they both belong. Political protests and associated violence have been present ever since, adding to the country’s continuing instability. In October 2018, thousands of people protested in the nation’s capital to denounce a lack of transparency and irregularities surrounding voter registration. October 2018 also saw a nationwide teacher strike paralyse the education sector – in turn triggering counter-demonstrations and protests. It is also important to note that Guinea- Bissau has witnessed nine coups, or attempted coups, since 1980. ADVICE: Due to the threat of political violence surrounding elections in Guinea-Bissau, travellers are advised to delay all non-essential travel until the elections have passed. If travel is business critical, travellers are advised to consider implementing precautionary security measures. Travellers should also avoid all protests and public gatherings, although they may initially seem peaceful there is the potential for them to turn violent.

To read more please download the report: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 10

International Women’s Day and Female Business Travellers

For International Women’s Day, Solace Global wanted to celebrate the fact that female business travellers are becoming more and more frequent. In the US, women now account for nearly 40 percent of business travellers. This number is reflected in the UK and is only going to grow in the coming years. Indeed, we are seeing our own clients having more and more women conducting business trips. These trips vary from short journeys to Europe and cities in the US to more complex journeys in Africa or to Asia. This is only good for businesses globally!

Given the large numbers of female travellers across the globe, it is important that companies ensure that they take into account the unique threats that female travellers can face in certain countries. As such, while female and male preferences and habits and are not that dissimilar when it comes to business travel, the type of threats they can face can have a significant impact on the enjoyment, and the success, of the business trip; not to mention the safety of the individual.

There is no escaping that there will always be an element of risk when travelling regardless of who the traveller is; male or female. However, as long as a person and their company are aware of the risks that they may face, there is no reason that anyone should not conduct an enjoyable and safe trip.

This is important because the last thing travellers want to do while on a trip is to be constantly worrying and making continued threat assessments about their surroundings while doing what she actually came to do: meet clients, make a presentation or close an important deal.

There are a number of things that both travellers and company risk managers can do to ensure that female business travellers can conduct their business safely and successfully. These include preparation before and actions during their journeys.

Advice for the travellers

In the majority of cases, common sense precautions, such as avoiding travelling alone after dark in unfamiliar places and watching your drink at the bar, will keep you safe.
Do not be too trusting, do not accept food or drinks from strangers or be accepting of lifts.
If the hotel receptionist verbally announces your room number or puts you in an inappropriate location, such as a ground floor room or at the end of a dark corridor, feel free to ask for an alternative room.
Ensure your hotel has double-locking doors and that both work before unpacking.
Consider carrying doorstop, or a device such as a DoorJammer, to provide an extra security for your room.
Research your destination before you travel, be aware of the safer areas, the places to avoid and any other things to look out for.
Be aware of the cultural sensitivities in the country you are visiting. For example, reporting sexual assault in the United Arab Emirate can result in the victim being detained and even charged.
Cultural sensitivities can extend to how you dress, whether or not you should initiate handshakes and even the length of eye contact.
Ensure that someone knows where you are travelling to; be this friends, family or work colleagues. Additionally, ensure that you check in regularly with this person.
Certain hygiene products can be difficult to buy in some countries; it is advisable that, where possible, you bring your own.

Advice for travel managers

Travel managers already know they need to focus on safety as more women travel for business; however, this needs to translate into specific changes to travel policies.
Global travel policy should reflect the diversity of your travellers; different locations and different travellers will all have varying risk profiles which should all be respected.
Companies should be able to account for their employee’s whereabouts; this is especially true in more high-risk locations.

Global Security Forecast: Week 9 2019

Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 9 Solace Global’s Global Security Forecast is a weekly risk round-up that is issued weekly by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team. The report covers important and interesting stories that have occurred over the past week and also includes a few upcoming events to give both businesses and travellers an insight into potential threats across the globe.

Maritime Snapshot Week 9

Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 9 The Solace Global Maritime Snapshot provides an overview of the latest maritime incidents across the globe as well as a deeper look at some interesting maritime stories that have occurred.