Global Security Forecast: Week 3 2019
LEBANON: Beirut – Anticipate disruption during Arab League Summit 19 -20 January
The Arab Social and Economic Development Summit will take place in Beirut on Saturday, 19 January and conclude on Sunday, 20 January 20. Travellers in Beirut should anticipate heightened security throughout the city as well as road closures and travel disruption over the weekend. Beirut’s Central Business District will host most of the events over the weekend and access to the area will be heavily restricted for the duration of the weekend. Road closures near the Central Business District will begin from the evening of 17 January. Additional security forces are being deployed throughout the city for the duration of the summit. Disruption and increased waiting times should be expected at Rafic Hariri International Airport as foreign dignities both arrive and depart from 18 – 21 January.
Protests and associated disruption should be anticipated, especially in central areas of the city, as political activists seek to exploit the global media attention.
ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key Summit locations to minimise disruption. Arrive at the airport in plenty of time for departing flights. Follow all directions by the security forces.
DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres – Tensions remain elevated following request for recount of election results. Minimise movement near protest flashpoints.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) constitutional court will rule on Martin Fayulu’s challenge to the election results and request for a recount of the votes. Fayulu was announced as the provisional runner up by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) however their results did not marry counts by election monitors from the Catholic Church or the pre-election polls. Numerous governments, including France and the UK, have called for CENI to fully investigate allegations of election fraud following doubts over the credibility of the results and do all that is possible to ensure the candidate with the most votes assume the Presidency. In an unprecedented move, the African Union (AU) followed suit, stating that the allegations of fraud must be fully investigated prior to the announcement of the election result and calling for the announcement of the final result to be suspended. The AU will now send a mission to the DRC and have asked the constitutional court to wait until the delegation arrives before continuing their investigation.
The CENI announced provisional results contradict data compiled by the 40,000 election observers operating under the Catholic Church which indicates that the declared runner up, Martin Fayulu, won as much as 61% of the vote. While the post-election security environment has remained reasonably calm – tensions are expected to become elevated the longer investigations go on. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory.
ADVICE: Travellers currently in the DRC should continue to minimise movement near potential protest flashpoints in major urban centres and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. Flashpoints include the Constitutional Court and Independent National Electoral Commission in Kinshasa and government buildings in other major cities. If you are in-country, ensure that you have access to, secure, compound-based accommodation and a clear escalation plan if the event security situation deteriorates. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details.
BURKINA FASO: Nord; Est; Sahel regions – Kidnapping and killing of foreign national underscores need for upscaling security precautions.
A Canadian geologist working at a mining site in North-eastern Burkino Faso was found dead near Gorom-Gorom (Sahel region) two days after being kidnapped during an attack by militants on a government-run mine exploration site. The body was discovered riddled with bullets approximately 100km north of the site near the Niger border. Militants stormed the exploration camp in Tiabongou (Sahel region) at 20.00 on 15 January abducting the Canadian national along with Burkinabe national. The killing comes a matter of days after Canadian authorities announced that one of their citizens was kidnapped along with an Italian national in the west of the country near the second biggest city in Burkina, Bobo-Dioulasso.
The severe deterioration in the security environment over the last 12 months has led the Burkina Faso government to implement a state of emergency the Nord, Shael and Est regions; due to the increasing threat posed by Islamist militants. The long and porous border with Niger and Mali has allowed militants to establish transnational-networks and avoid full confrontation with security forces. Please revisit our Travel Advisory from October detailing how international organisations should be up-scaling security measures to enable secure travel to the affected regions.
ADVICE: Travellers should seek itinerary specific support prior to travel to all border areas due to the credible risk posed by kidnap or attack by Sahel based Islamist militants. Travel risk managers should be confident of escalation and accommodation arrangements and consider a site security assessment before allowing staff to be housed in on-site premises.
ZIMBABWE: Harare, Bulawayo; urban centres – Anti-government protests likely to persist in coming days
Violent anti-government protests broke out in Harare, Bulawayo and other Zimbabwean cities following a televised announcement by President Emmerson Mnangagwa that gasoline and diesel prices would increase by as much as 100% due to nationwide shortages. The deteriorating economic situation and ongoing currency crisis has made it increasingly difficult for Zimbabwean importers to secure foreign currency to purchase fuel. In response to the announcement, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions called for a nationwide strike to be held.
Protests erupted on 14 January in most major cities leading to a forceful response by security forces. Local media reports indicate that police fired tear gas and live ammunition towards large groups and videos have circulated of armed and uniformed men entering hospitals to detain injured protesters. In response, the Zimbabwean government have implemented a ‘national blackout’ restricting the internet and other telecommunications throughout the country. Protests are likely to continue in the coming days causing associated disruptions. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory.
ADVICE: Travellers in Zimbabwe should minimise near potential protest flashpoints in the coming days due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces and consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. Periodically test all communications to ensure you have the capability to quickly speak to the relevant people in a crisis.
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Headlines • 12 – 18 January 2019
KENYA: Nairobi – Hotel siege ends. At least 21 dead and 19 still missing. Anticipate heightened security and associated disruption in coming days. Nineteen hours after the attack began Kenyan President, Uhuru Kenyatta, officially declared the siege at the DusitD2 hotel over on 16 January after all attackers had been killed. Twenty-one people were confirmed dead while countless others remain unaccounted for. The Al Qaeda linked militant group Al Shabaab, claimed responsibility, stating that the attack was in retaliation to the US decision to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The attack began when five militants stormed the popular Riverside complex at 14.30 local time throwing grenades at vehicles near the main entrance before entering the main lobby of the hotel. Over the next 19 hours, Kenya security forces worked to evacuate those trapped in the hotel and secure the buildings on the site. Intermittent gunfire and occasional explosions were heard throughout the night. The last militant was neutralised by security forces at approximately 9.00am. Many of those trapped in the building spent the night hiding in office and toilet blocks. The attack targeted one of the highest profiles and affluent areas of Nairobi that was popular with foreign expatriates, business travellers as well as Kenyan politicians and businessmen. The globalised and multicultural environment had elevated levels of security and the hotel employed a private security company to provide armed guards on site. The attack appears to have been carefully planned to ensure maximum global attention and have a longer-term impact on the perception of the travel environment in Kenya – targeting what was considered by many, as one of the most secure areas of the city. ADVICE: Travel to Nairobi can resume following the attack. Travellers should anticipate a heightened police and military presence throughout the city; especially around other major international hotels, shopping malls, government buildings and other areas of interest. Additionally, all travellers should exercise vigilance and follow all official directives issued by security forces. The city will remain tense and on high alert in the coming weeks – potentially leading to disruption in certain central locations. SYRIA: Manbij – Four US soldiers killed in suicide explosion at a market in Northern Syria. Continue to defer all travel. Nineteen people were killed, including four American soldiers, following a suicide explosion at a restaurant in the main market square of the Syria town, Manbij in the north east of Aleppo governorate on 16 January. The town is currently controlled by Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) after being liberated from Islamic State (IS) rule by American and Syrian Democratic Forces in June 2016. American soldiers were in the restaurant at the time of the explosion to meet with officials from the Manbij Military council. The attack was subsequently claimed by IS and raised renewed doubts over claims by the American government that the Islamist group had been defeated in Syria. Manbij remains away from areas of conflict and had been considered one of the safer areas in Northern Syria at the time of the attack. The suicide bombing highlights the continued instability and lack of security throughout Syria. The Islamic State are adapting their tactics and will continue to move away from a territory-based insurgence to a guerrilla-styled operation. America’s proposed withdrawal is likely to leave both Kurdish and Syrian forces without the capability to conduct effective counterterrorism operations throughout the country leading to an increase in suicide bombings and hit and run attacks throughout Syria. ADVICE: Continue to defer all travel to Syria at the current time. While some diplomatic representation is reopening in Damascus and the security situation is improving, the preoccupation of security forces with ongoing conflict operations means security is still not adequate for travel. Both crime and unrest are likely to increase in the coming year with security forces responding aggressively to anti-government demonstrations. International sanctions continued to make it increasingly difficult for businesses to operate in the country. COLOMBIA; Bogota – Twenty people were killed after the detonation of a car bomb at the General Santander Police Academy on 17 January. At approximately 9.30 local time on 17 January, a grey vehicle entered the compound of the General Santander police academy in the south of Bogota. It was stopped soon after by guards at an initial checkpoint just inside the compound before accelerating into a wall and where the car exploded. A promotion ceremony for cadets was being held at the time of the explosion and families had been invited to see the cadets pass out. Twenty people were killed and 68 were injured in the blast. The attacker was a 57-year-old male with no criminal record or ties to any militant groups within Colombia. No militant group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. Pentolite was used to make the explosive device which has previously been used by rebel groups to target government targets. The suspect lived in the Northern Department of Boyacá in Colombia where the guerrilla militant group the National Liberation Army (ELN) are present. Although there is no direct link to ELN involvement – they have targeted government and security forces in the past with explosive devices. Five policemen were killed and were 40 wounded when the ELN launched bomb attacks on three different police stations on January 27, 2018 in the north of Columbia. ADVICE: Travellers in Bogota should always maintain situational awareness, minimising time spent near government or judicial buildings and police compounds and checkpoints. Report any suspicious activity or bags to the local authorities. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.Significant Dates and Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| TBC Jan | Guinea | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 3 Feb | El Salvador | Presidential elections | HIGH |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| TBC Feb | Thailand | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Security Forecast:Week 2 2019
United States: Countrywide – Security fears grow at public transport hubs following government shutdown.
A spokesperson for the Transport Security Administration (TSA) announced on 9 January that an increasing number of TSA agents have resigned from their jobs and many others are considering quitting following the partial government shutdown and the subsequent loss of federal employee earnings. The TSA is a department of Homeland Security that was established following the 9/11 terror attacks to provide security at airports and other transport hubs. The TSA is responsible for all screening measures at airports, putting Federal Air Marshalls on planes as well as providing teams of dog handlers and explosive specialists. The TSA President announced that the loss of staff has put additional stress on the security infrastructure at major airports and transports hubs.
While many agents continue to work for no pay, as their roles are deemed essential, the length of the shutdown has raised fears that government-led security agencies will be unable to quickly recover if increasing levels of staff seek alternative employment. Aviation experts have already highlighted that wait times at security screening is increasing.
ADVICE: While travel to the US can continue, travellers should exercise increased caution at major airports and other transport hubs. Travellers should attempt to arrive at the airport earlier than usual due to the increased waiting times that are anticipated at airport security. While airport officials have stated there will not be a reduction in the security measures at airports, travellers should remain vigilant.
DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres – Protests and associated violence to cause widespread disruption following the release of election results.
In the early hours of Monday 10 January, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) declared opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi winner of the 30 December Presidential Election 38.5% of the vote. Current incumbent Joseph Kabila will step down after 18 years in office. Even though this will be the first time that a candidate from an opposition party has been elected to the office of President since DRC gained independence in 1960, controversy remains over the legitimacy of the results. A week ago, foreign diplomats were briefed by the biggest election monitoring body in the country – the National Episcopal Conference of the Congo (CENCO) – that their tallies indicated that another opposition candidate Martin Fayulu, leader of the Lamuka coalition, had won the election.
The losing candidates will now have ten days to contest the election results in the country’s constitutional court before Tshisekedi is sworn in. International condemnation may follow if the Catholic Church can provide evidence that their tallies are contradictory to the election result announced by CENI. It is likely that Fayulu will contest the results in the coming days and protest will occur as Fayulu seeks to build momentum behind the challenge. Any unrest is likely to be met by a forceful response by security forces. At least six people were killed, and multiple others were injured, as protests broke out in Kwilu and Tshopo provinces on 10 January. Celebratory rallies are also causing severe disruption in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Matadi and Bukavu. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory.
ADVICE: Defer all inbound travel to the DRC till until after 20 January. Travellers currently in the DRC should minimise all movement and remain in secure accommodation over the coming days due to the risk posed by widespread unrest and associated violence. There is intermittent disruption being reported to both internet and text messaging services and personnel should ensure they have access to a means of communication. Continue to monitor local and international media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
TUNISIA: Countrywide – Government decision to extend the state of emergency highlights continued threat from militant actors.
The Tunisian government have extended the state of emergency till 4 February. The decision coincides with an increase in recent anti-terror operations following the suicide explosion that occurred in Tunis on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in October killing the attacker and wounding nine others (please see Travel Advisory). On 3 January security forces stormed an Islamist cell in Sidi Bouzid province (central regions) leading to a gun battle before both militants detonated suicide belts. One of the dead militants was identified as the leader of a jihadist cell that had ties to Al Qaeda.
Tunisia has been under a state of emergency since November 24, 2015, when an explosive device was detonated on a bus killing 12 members of the security forces in downtown Tunis. While security has improved in urban centres, including Tunis, counterterrorism operations have continued in central provinces of the country, highlighting a continued threat to travellers. While the state of emergency will have little impact for travellers visiting Tunisia, it does give the government additional powers to suspend certain civil rights and freedoms. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory.
ADVICE: Travellers in Tunisia should exercise should maintain situational awareness and exercise heightened vigilance in high profile areas such as transport hubs, tourist locations or government buildings. Report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities. An increased security presence has been reported in Tunis and other urban centres in recent weeks.
KENYA: Nairobi – Nairobi; Criminal groups posing as app-based taxi operators targeting foreign nationals.
Travellers in Nairobi should take additional precautions when travelling in the city following an increase in thefts targeting foreigners using app-based taxi services. On 9 January a German national was robbed after requesting an app-based taxi in the affluent Kilimani neighbourhood in central Nairobi. Shortly after being picked up the taxi stopped, and two further men got in. The foreign national was then held at gunpoint and asked for his bankcards and pin numbers at which point the driver got out and withdrew cash from his accounts before they gave the victim a small amount of money to get a taxi back to his hotel.
Crime continues to pose the most significant risk to foreign travellers in Nairobi. While most incidents are opportunistic in nature, there has been an increasing threat from organised criminal groups specifically targeting high-income Kenyans as well as business travellers. Criminal groups are often armed and are increasingly targeting areas near hotels and major businesses. On 6 January seven Italian missionaries were robbed in the same area while waiting in their car. One of the missionaries was subsequently shot and injured in the attack.
ADVICE: Travellers in Nairobi should consider heightened precautions to mitigate the risk from crime including minimising the time spent on foot in the city, locking all door and closing all windows when travelling in a vehicle and using a trusted local driver (which can be organised through your hotel) rather than Taxis’ or app-based ride share services. Remain vigilant to threat from crime and if you feel you are being followed enter a shop or a busy environment and ask for help.
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: 20190111 – Global Security Forecast – Week 2 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Headlines • 4 – 11 January 2019
BURKINA FASO: Bobo-Dioulasso – Two foreign travellers feared kidnapped. Stringent security measures should be considered for all travel outside capital. All travellers in Burkina Faso are reminded of the dangers of road travel near the Mali border after the Canadian government announced this week that they were treating the disappearance of a Canadian traveller as a kidnapping. The Canadian and Italian nationals have not been heard from since 15 December when one spoke to a family member from Burkina’s second largest city Bobo-Dioulasso. The pair were travelling in Western Africa by car and had reportedly driven from Mali across the Burkinabe border (Hauts-Bassins region), an area rife with militant and smuggling activity, before reaching Bobo-Dioulasso. They were due to drive to the capital, Ouagadougou, before flying on to Togo to support in a humanitarian project. There has been no contact from the pair since 15 December. Kidnap remains a significant risk in regions bordering Mali. Homegrown militancy alongside long-term socio-economic inequality and an overstretched military has driven higher rates of kidnapping in recent years. While Islamist groups tend to operate further north in the Sahel and Nord regions of the country local Islamist cells linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have emerged countrywide since the 2015 Burkinabé coup d’état. The cells which target and embed themselves within local communities are known to use kidnap-for-ransom to finance their operations. High profile abductions of foreign nations have previously taken place in the Sahel and Nord regions, including a Romanian mineworker and Australian Doctor in 2015. Both are yet to be released. ADVICE: Travel outside Ouagadougou requires careful planning and appropriate security support including journey management and itinerary specific security briefing. Road moves should only be conducted during daylight hours, in a well-maintained four-wheel-drive (4WD) vehicle with a comprehensive breakdown kit, water, additional fuel, adequate communications systems and a medical kit. Daily itineraries should be considered carefully, selecting major routes where possible and identifying safe and suitable locations to stop for fuel and provisions, in coordination with a local driver. Please see our latest Travel Advisory on the rise in terrorist activity in Burkina Faso. AUSTRIA; GERMANY; ITALY: The Alps – Twelve killed following severe winter conditions. Avalanche threat increased to second highest level, anticipate disruption. At least six people have been killed following heavy snow and high winds in Alpine regions over the last week. The severe winter conditions have trapped hundreds of people at popular skiing resorts in Austria following widespread road closures. Parts of Germany and Austria have experience up to 50 cm of snow in past 72 hours. The avalanche risk rating has been increased to the second highest level in recent days, meaning that lots of roads are now deemed unsafe to travel on. Several Alpine regions have declared states of emergency as roads, trains and ski resorts remain closed for the third day. Helicopters normally deployed to control avalanches remain grounded. Heavy snow is projected to continue in Austria, Northern Italy and southern parts of Germany in the coming days. Flight disruption should be expected in the coming days as airlines attempt to clear a backlog of passengers. ADVICE: Travellers are recommended to speak with their airline and their travel provider if they are due to travel to the region in the coming days. Disruption should be expected throughout the Alpine regions including continued road closures and limited available public transport. Do not self-drive unless familiar with the road network, speak the local language and you are aware of which routes are currently closed. Local ski resorts in Austria are advising all the guests to not go off-piste while the avalanche risk remains high. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. GABON; Libreville – Normal movement can resume after suspected ringleaders detained on 7 January At approximately 4.30 local time on 7 January, a group of soldiers took control of the national radio station in Libreville and broadcast a live statement announcing the implementation of the ‘National Restoration Council’ to restore democracy to Gabon. Within hours of the broadcast, a government spokesperson stated that four of the five soldiers had subsequently been arrested and order has been restored. A heavy military presence remains visible in some high-profile areas of Libreville however, the city is calm, and at least seven soldiers, including the ring leader, have been detained. Airports are operating normally, and international land borders remain open. The internet, which was briefly shut down, has been restored. The attempted coup comes amidst growing concerns over President Ali Bongo’s ill health and the potential battle for succession. President Ali remains in Morocco recuperating after being hospitalised in Saudi Arabia in October with some local reports suggesting he had suffered a stroke. The power vacuum that has been left while the President remains out of the country appears to have prompted today’s events with groups seeking to exploit his absence. Please see our latest Travel Advisory on the recent coup attempt in Gabon. ADVICE: Travel to Libreville can continue following a stabilisation in the security environment however, travellers should continue to expect heightened security in the coming days. Always carry your travel and identification documents with you and follow all directives from local officials.Significant Dates and Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| TBC Jan | Guinea | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 3 Feb | El Salvador | Presidential elections | HIGH |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| TBC Feb | Thailand | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: 20190111 – Global Security Forecast – Week 2 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Election Results Imminent
Democratic Republic of Congo: Local reports indicate that the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) could release the result of the Presidential election tomorrow (9 January). Reports are not confirmed however all travellers in country should minimise movement outside secure premises due to the risk of widespread unrest and associated violence.
The election period has been marred by allegations of fraud and corruption. If the release of results are not consistent with other election observation bodies, notably the Catholic Church’s election monitors, Solace Global anticipate a wave of unrest throughout the country leading to widespread violence between opposition supporters and security forces.
Continue to defer all inbound travel to the the Democratic Republic of Congo at the present time. For travel risk managers with staff currently in country ensure that you have up to date and realistic evacuation plans in place that can be activated quickly in the event there is a severe deterioration in the security environment. Multiple communication means should be established with staff and all movement should be logged with head office.
Staff in country should be aware of these plans and understand their responsibilities in the event that an evacuation is required.
- Continue to defer all inbound travel to the Democratic Republic of Congo
- Review your evacuation plans ensuring they are up to date, realistic and can be implemented at short notice. Consider how you can rapidly group all staff in a central location especially if they are working in remote locations.
- Check all communication strategies (multiple communication means will be required) and ensure you have the capability to quickly locate staff on the ground. Consider that internet and telephone networks are likely to be disabled following the release of result.
- Speak with staff on the ground to make sure you have the most up to date information on their situation and to confirm they understand and are confident with their responsibilities if there is a rapid deterioration in the security environment.
Global Security Forecast: 12 Jan 2018
CHINA: Beijing – US issues travel warning after a spate of high-profile international detentions.
The US state department has issued a travel advisory following a series of high-profile detentions of Canadian and American citizens in China. The warning comes after two Canadians, one a former diplomat, were arrested and remain in detention following accusations that they harmed national security. In total thirteen Canadians have been detained since December 1 and three American nationals have also been barred from leaving the country under China’s controversial ‘exit bans’. The increase in detentions and exit bans has coincided with the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou who was detained in Vancouver on 1 December at the request of the US. US officials are attempting to extradite the Chinese national following accusations that she manufactured the sale of US technology to Iran through a Hong Kong company in an attempt to circumvent US sanctions.
The trade war between China and the US has escalated in recent months and the arrest of citizens on both sides appears part of an ongoing diplomatic dispute. The US Presidents statement on 12 December, suggesting that he would personally intervene in the Meng Wanzhou case if it would facilitate a favourable trade deal with China, has only added to fears that the recent spate of arrests are politically motivated.
ADVICE: While travel to China can continue, travellers should exercise increased caution and organisations should have pre-considered contingencies in place prior to employee travel. Employees require a valid visa and in-date passport for the duration of their trip. If detained, travellers should ask security officials to notify their respective embassy as soon as possible.
DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: EXTREME) – Further unrest likely following a delay in the release of election results. Continue to defer all travel until after election announcement.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced on 3 January that the release of provisional election results, which had been anticipated on 7 January, would be delayed after reports that only 20 percent of tally sheets had been received by election officials in Kinshasa. The announcement comes following reports from the Catholic Church, who had thousands of monitors in attendance at polling stations around the country, that disruptions and irregularities were experienced in some provinces during the election. While the 30 December vote passed off relatively peacefully, the campaign period was marred by violent clashes between security forces and opposition party supporters in key opposition held areas. At least seven people were killed in the weeks leading up to the election.
President Joseph Kabila, who has held the position of President since 2001, will step down following the release of election results. The country has been gripped by political crisis since 2016 when Kabila’s second and final term ended. The delay in the release of the election results alongside accusations of voting irregularities by the Catholic Church is likely to provoke further demonstrations in the coming days. Government authorities have blocked the internet and banned some media broadcasters in an attempt to disrupt the organisation of protest movements. See our latest Travel Advisory for more information.
ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC untill after the release of the election results. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres in the coming days and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation for the duration election period. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details.
SUDAN: Khartoum; urban centre – Anti-austerity protests continue, reports of widespread clashes with security forces, further protests likely
Opposition political parties and civil society groups are calling for further anti-government protests on the 4 and 6 January. The announcement comes after more than two weeks of countrywide demonstrations demanding the end to severe austerity measures that have been implemented by the Sudanese government in an attempt tackle growing inflation in the country. Widespread discontent has gripped Sudan over the last 12 months following a sharp increase in food prices, countrywide fuel shortages and the devaluation of the Sudanese pound. In the last two weeks protest have occurred daily in major urban centres, including the capital Khartoum and Port Sudan leading to clashes with security forces. Nineteen people have been killed since 19 December and local reports indicate that security forces have used tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse crowds. Sudanese officials have responded to the protests by implementing emergency protocols throughout the country which include curfews in potential protests flash points and the closure of most university campus in the country. On Sunday 6 January protesters will attempt march on the Presidential Palace in Khartoum at 13.00 to deliver a petition demanding that Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir resigns.
ADVICE: Travellers in Sudan should exercise addition caution and follow all instructions from local officials. An increased security presence should be expected in Khartoum and other urban centres. If you encounter a protest or gathering of people, leave the area immediately and return to a secure location.
VENEZUALA: Countrywide (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: EXTREME) – Current incumbent President Nicolas Maduro will be inaugurated for his second term on 10 January, protests likely.
Current incumbent Nicholas Maduro will be sworn in for his second term as Venezuelan president on 10 January leading to calls from local civil rights groups and a collation of opposition parties to demonstrate in urban centres. The main opposition parties boycotted the 20 May presidential election over a lack of transparency and allegations that the National Electoral Council were unable to hold a free and fair election due to perceived bias. Opposition protests erupted in the capital Caracas on 16 May which were met by a forceful response from security forces who claimed protesters had not sought permission from the government to hold a demonstration.
Despite holding huge oil reserves, the Venezuelan economy has been severely mismanaged leading to widespread poverty and malnutrition. President Maduro is accused of perpetuating the situation following his refusal to acknowledge the economic challenges or the social impact it is having, refusing the support of international aid groups. Thousands of Venezuelans have fled the country over the escalating socioeconomic challenges and fear of political persecution. In 2017, months of street protests erupted throughout the country after the government arrested several opposition leaders and dissolved the opposition-led national assembly. Over 150 people were killed, and 4,500 people were arrested.
ADVICE: Consider minimising movement in the capital Caracas and other urban centres on 10 January due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Travellers should avoid all opposition-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 52 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Headlines • 21 December 4 January 2019
MYANMAR: Rakhine State – Renewed fighting between Buddhist armed groups and Myanmar’s military forces thousands to flee Fighting erupted in December between government forces and the Buddhist separatist group the Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine state (Western territory) forcing thousands to flee their homes. Tensions have been elevated in Rakhine state, known for its religious and ethnic diversity, since the Rohingya crisis erupted last year forcing hundreds of thousands of ethnic Rohingya Muslims to seek refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh. An escalation of hostilities began after two Buddhist men disappeared on 18 December while fishing in Maungdaw township, on the border with Bangladesh and were later found dead. On the same day a police convoy was ambushed in the area by unknown assailants resulting in the kidnap and death of a police officer. The Myanmar military responding by launching clearing operations throughout the state forcing thousands of Buddhists to flee their homes and seek shelter in monasteries and communal camps. The Arakan Army have responded to the clearance operation by launching a series of attacks against security forces in the state. An AA spokesperson stated that on 4 January a series of attacks occurred at several police posts killing seven members of the security forces and taking 12 hostages. The forced return of Muslim communities who had sought refuge in neighbouring Bangladesh was meant to begin in December but has subsequently been delayed due to ongoing tensions. ADVICE: Travel to Rakhine state should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by a trusted local contact. Foreign travellers require prior approval from the Myanmar government to visit the state. If travelling to any rural parts of the country, make sure you have suitable communication equipment and check-in regularly with a home contact. Minimise all movements near police, military or government installations. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. UNITED KINGDOM: Manchester – Three people stabbed at Victoria railway station in suspected terror attack on 31 December Three people were stabbed at Victoria railway station on 31 December in a suspected terror attack. At approximately 21.00 a male suspect approached people waiting at the tram platform in the station before producing a knife and stabbing two individuals. Screams alerted the British Transport Police situated in the station who were able to quickly apprehend the suspect. One of the officers was subsequently stabbed while detaining the assailant. Witnesses reported hearing the attacker shout Allah and anti-western slogans during the attack. Police are currently treating the incident as a lone-wolf styled terrorist attack and do not believe anyone else was involved in the planning or execution of the attack. Security had been increased throughout the UK over the festive period with additional units deployed to major transport hubs and in high-profile locations. This ensured a quick response to the incident, minimising the opportunity for the attacker to do further damage, none of those injured are in a critical condition. Lone-wolf, low profile attacks continue to present a serious concern for counter-terrorism efforts in the UK due to the difficulty faced by security forces and counter-terrorism agencies in tracking and intervening in such attacks. ADVICE: Individuals in the UK should always maintain situational awareness and exercise heightened vigilance in high profile areas such as transport hubs, tourist locations or government buildings. Report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities. Security in and around major transport hubs is likely to remain high in the coming weeks and could lead to potential disruption. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. GERMANY: Bottrop – One man detained after several injured in an intentional vehicle ramming incident on 1 January Four people were injured on 1 January after a car was driven into a crowd of tourists near the Plaza in Bottrop situated in the north west of Germany in the early hours of New Years Day. The assailant, a 50-year-old German male, fled the scene before attempting to hit a second crowd at a bus stop in Essen where he was eventually stopped and apprehended by police. A senior government official stated that the incident was an intentional attack that clearly intended to kill or maim. Police are treating the incident as a xenophobic attack motivated by anti-immigration sentiment. The German governments ongoing support to refugees, which has seen the arrival of over one million asylum seekers arrive in the country in the past three years, has led to a sharp rise in tensions between migrant and host communities. In some German state’s crime, including violent crime, has risen during this time and been explicitly linked by German media to the influx of refugees. While tensions have risen German officials are treating the attack as a one-off event that can be partially attributed to the suspect history of mental health problems. That said, such attacks can further isolate migrant communities and provides an opportunity for Islamist groups to use the attack as propaganda for their own recruitment activities. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance if travelling in Germany and report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities. Security in Bottrop and the surrounding areas is likely to remain high in the coming days and could lead to potential disruption.Significant Dates and Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| TBC Jan | Guinea | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 8 Jan | Puntland (Somalia) | Regional elections | MODERATE |
| 10 Jan | Venezuela | Presidential Inauguration | HIGH |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 3 Feb | El Salvador | Presidential elections | HIGH |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| TBC Feb | Thailand | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 52 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Security Forecast: Week 51
UNITED KINGDOM: Gatwick Airport, London – Anticipate disruption; flight delays at Gatwick following drone activity near runway.
Gatwick has reopened its runway and a limited number of planes have been allowed to arrive and depart after the authorities implemented a 36-hour suspension of flights after a drone was sighted near one of the runways. Despite the airport reopening over 100 flights are expected to be cancelled in the next 24 hours, with both planes and crews out of place. Over 126,000 people were meant to depart from Gatwick yesterday which will likely create a backlog of passengers needing to access different flights and delays at check-in desks throughout the airport. Local authorities believe the drone activity may have been a deliberate attempt to disrupt air traffic during one of the busiest times of year. The drone was first spotted at 21.00 on 19 December and was continually sighted over the next 24 hours with the last sighting being late on 20 December. Please see our recent Christmas and Winter Travel Advisory for more information on what to do during seasonal flight delays.
ADVICE: Widespread disruption is expected at Gatwick over the next 48 hours as flight operators seek to clear the backlog of passengers. Those expecting to depart from Gatwick should contact their operator to reconfirm the current status of their flight. Passengers should also check-in online as soon as possible and arrive to the airport early to prevent your seat being from being reassigned to a standby passenger.
DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: SEVERE) – Presidential election postponed until 30 December. Anticipate unrest; associated clashes. Defer non-critical travel.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) has delayed the Presidential Election until 30 December citing a shortfall of electronic voting machines in the capital Kinshasa. The announcement comes following a suspected arson attack on 13 December that destroyed 8,000 electronic voting machines, roughly two-third of the number required for voting in the capital city. Over the next week CENI will now attempt to move electronic voting machines from other parts of the country to make up the shortfall in Kinshasa and will need to replace five million ballots that were also lost in the fire.
The latest delay is likely to create further unrest in the coming days as opposition groups voice their anger over the repeated delays to an election that was meant to take place in 2016. Protests broke out in Kinshasa near the main university following the announcement of the postponement on 20 December leading to clashes with security forces as they attempted to disperse the demonstrators.
The December campaign period has been marred by clashes between opposition supporters and security forces with reports that the military have used live ammunition in an attempt to disperse political rallies in opposition held areas of the country leading to dozens of deaths. Campaigning has been banned in Kinshasa over fears of related violence. See our latest Travel Advisory for more information.
ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC till after the election cycle. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres between 29 December – 1 January and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation over the election period. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details.
PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES (WEST BANK): Ramallah; West Bank – Anticipate unrest; increased security following recent escalation in attacks.
Travellers in the West Bank should exercise caution and anticipate heightened security following the recent increase in violence between Palestinians and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF). Tensions increased throughout the region after two Israeli soldiers were killed at a checkpoint in a drive by shooting near the Israeli settlement Ofra, to the east of Ramallah, on 13 December. In response to the shooting the IDF temporarily closed access to Ramallah, declaring it a military zone and launching raids into the city to find the perpetrators of the attacks. Four Palestinians were killed following Israeli operations in the West Bank. On 20 December a Palestinian was killed after Israeli soldiers opened fire on vehicle at Beit El Military road block north of Ramallah. The recent escalation in tensions between the two groups is likely to cause further incidents and security operations. Movement restrictions are likely in the coming days.
ADVICE: Travellers in the West Bank should exercise addition caution over the current period and minimise time spent at military checkpoints or near Israeli settlements. An increased security presence is likely in border regions between Israel and the West Bank and delays should be expected at check points. Always carry your travel documentation with you as well as photographic ID to minimise delays.
MAURITIUS: Countrywide (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE) – Tropical Cyclone Cilida due to make landfall on 22 December; heavy rainfall and flooding possible.
Tropical Cyclone Cilida is forecast to make landfall on 22 December on the Island of Mauritius in the southern Indian Ocean. The cyclone, which is expected to reach an intensity equivalent to a category 4 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale), will result in wind speeds up to 240 kmph (150 mph) as it passes the eastern shoreline of the Island. Heavy rain and strong winds have been forecast as well as the possibility of storm surges on the eastern coastal areas of the Island. Travel disruption, including flight cancellations, remains possible during the tropical storm and travellers in or transiting to Mauritius should monitor developments over the coming days and reconfirm their travel schedule.
ADVICE: Travellers due to fly from Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) should reconfirm itinerates with their airline. In the event of cancellations, your travel provider will be able to support with additional arrangements. Roads may become impassable due to flooding, check the status of routes before setting out on journeys. Strong winds could bring down electricity pylons and basic preparations should be made in the event of a sustained power outage. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.
SPAIN: Barcelona – Anticipate travel disruption; further protests following anti-government demonstrations on 21 December
A series of protests broke out in Barcelona following the decision by the Spanish cabinet to hold their weekly meeting in Barcelona. Demonstrators blocked major highways leading to the city causing severe travel disruption on 21 December. The protests were quickly organised by pro-secessionist parties who see the government decision to hold the weekly meeting in Barcelona as both provocative and detrimental to their hopes for Catalonian succession from Spain. Local media reported on clashes between security forces and protesters on some major routes into the city as security forces attempt to disperse the protesters.
ADVICE: Heightened security measures and significant traffic disruption is expected on 21 December. Further protests are likely over the weekend leading to localised travel disruption. Confirm the status of routes before setting out on road journeys. Avoid all protests as a precaution. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 51 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Headlines: 14 – 20 December 2018
MOROCCO: Imlil (Marrakesh-Safi region) – Two foreign nationals found dead near Atlas Mountains in potential terrorist attack Four men have been arrested on terrorism charges after the bodies of two Scandinavian tourist were discovered on 17 December 10 km (6mi) from the remote village of Imlil (Marrakesh-Safi region) in the Atlas Mountains. A video was released on social media purported showing one of the victims being killed by the men. A spokesperson for Morocco’s General Prosecutor announced on 20 December that the four men who have been detained had recorded a video pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) a week before the bodies were discovered. This is the first terrorism related incident to occur outside Morocco’s urban areas. The two female tourists, from Denmark and Norway, had been on a hiking holiday in the Atlas Mountains. Attacks on tourists remain incredibly rare in Morocco, which has become a popular tourist destination with European travellers. The last known terrorist attack occurred in 2011 when a bomb was planted in a café popular with tourists and expatriates, killing 17 including 11 Europeans. That said, the country continues to host Islamic extremist elements with thousands of Moroccans believed to have travelled to join IS in Syria in recent years. The repatriation of these fighters, following the fall of IS self-proclaimed caliphate, has placed additional pressure on Morocco’s counter terrorism agencies and an increase in small-scale extremist attacks remains possible. Both Denmark and Norway have issued travel warnings to their citizens following the attack. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance when travelling to Morocco, report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities and minimise time spent in the vicinity of potential terrorist targets (government buildings, tourist destinations, security check points). If visiting a rural part of the country, make sure you have suitable communication equipment and check-in regularly with a home contact. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates. TUNISIA: Sidi Bouzid province – Sidi Bouzid province: Security operation dismantles terror cell planning attacks on Tunisian security forces Tunisian Security officials announced on 19 December that it had detained eight individuals in Sidi Bouzid province who were part of an extremist cell with ties to a transnational terrorist organisation. The announcement comes weeks after 12 individuals were arrested in connection with the suicide bombing that occurred on Avenue Habib Gourguiba in the capital, Tunis on October 26 wounding 26 people and killing the bomber. An interior ministry spokesperson told local media that all 12 had links to the Islamic State (IS). The attack in October was the first terrorist attack to occur in Tunisia since 2015 when the government-imposed strict counterterrorism reforms, improving the security environment in major cities. The latest development highlights the possibility of increased terrorist activity within Tunisia but also the capability of Tunisian security forces in identifying and disrupting terrorist activity throughout the country. Further security operations remain likely in the coming weeks and an increased security presence should be expected in major cities and near potential targets for attack (tourist sites, government buildings, transport hubs). Read our latest Travel Advisory on the increased threat of terrorism in Tunisia. ADVICE: While travel to Tunisia remains possible, enhanced precaution should be considered prior to travel. Travellers should minimise time spent near potential target sites and refrain from travelling to tourist sites at peak hours. Minimise movement on foot after dark and maintain a varied routine while in country. Additionally, remain vigilant to the threat posed by terrorism and report any suspicious behaviour to the authorities. GREECE: Athens – Explosive device detonates at media group headquarters on 18 December, no casualties reported A makeshift explosive device detonated near the headquarters of Greek non-state media group SKAI in the early hours of 17 December, causing extensive damage to the building. The explosion, which occurred at 2.37am, was described by local media as especially powerful causing damage as high as the sixth floor. A warning call was made to two media companies 45 minutes before the explosion which allowed both buildings to successfully evacuate before the detonation. A spokesperson for the Greek anti-terror police announced that 10 kg of explosives had been packed into a rucksack and placed by a roadside barrier immediately outside the building before being remotely detonated. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. A day later the Athens Court of Appeals was evacuated following an anonymous phone call warning of an explosive device being place near the building. The call was later determined to be a hoax but caused significant disruption as security forces investigated the incident. Targeted political bombings are becoming more frequent in Athens and the attack on media headquarters bore similarities to a bombing that occurred near the Athens Court of Appeals on 21 December 2017 that was claimed by the far-left Group of Popular Fighters who claimed to be targeting the corrupt judicial system. On 13 November 2018 an improvised explosive device was defused outside the home of the Supreme Court deputy prosecutor. The bomb had been hidden in motorcycle outside the prosecutor’s home. Police were alerting to the potential of an IED after an anonymous call was made to the main Athens police station giving the address of the deputy prosecutor. Small scale IED are likely to continue due the volatile political environment currently dominating Athens, leading to travel disruption. ADVICE: Travellers in Athens should always maintain situational awareness, minimising time spent near government or judicial buildings. In the event that you are in a building when an alarm sounds, immediately evacuate the building and follow all advise issued by local authorities. Bomb threats are likely to cause localised disruption in areas of central Athens and in the event of an evacuation plan routes avoiding the area. Monitor Solace Global alerts for further updates.Significant Dates and Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 22 Dec | Iraq | Provincial elections | HIGH |
| 30 Dec | DRC | Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections | SEVERE |
| 30 Dec | Bangladesh | Parliamentary elections | HIGH |
| 31 Dec | Guinea-Bissau | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| TBC Jan | Guinea | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 8 Jan | Puntland (Somalia) | Regional elections | MODERATE |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 3 Feb | El Salvador | Presidential elections | HIGH |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| TBC Feb | Thailand | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Forecast Week 51 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Solace Global Maritime Weekly Snapshot – Week 51
Incidents
Europe
18 December: A Russian cargo vessel ran aground off English coast A Russian cargo ship ran aground off Cornwall after its anchor dragged in high winds. The vessel began to list 5 degrees before tugs intervened and rescued the ship at high tide. Gulf of Guinea
14 December: Chemical tanker fired upon Armed pirate sin a speed boat fired on an underway chemical tanker. Onboard AST returned fire. Pirates then aborted their attack. 15 December: Attack on MV 84nm WSW of Brass, Nigeria A merchant vessel was reportedly attacked 84nm off Brass. Both the vessel and crew were reported safe. 19 December: Kidnapped crew, including Poles, freed Poland’s foreign ministry announced that eleven foreign crew, including eight Poles, who were kidnapped by pirates off the Nigerian coast in October have been freed. Americas
14 December: Failed robbery attempt reported at Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela Four robbers were sighted on the forecastle of an anchored crude oil tanker. Nothing was reported stolen following a search of the vessel. A patrol boat responding to the incident also carried out a search of the surrounding waters. Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean
13 December: Suspicious approach on MV A Philippines-flagged crude oil tanker was approached at high speed by between 15 and 20 skiffs all carrying four or five persons. Onboard ASTs fired warning shots which resulted in the skiffs abandoning the approach. The vessel and crew were reported safe after the incident. 14 December: Second arms seizure off Somalia coast in six days An Indian Navy vessel, that had been deployed as part of anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, seized arms from a fishing vessel off the coast of Somalia. This is the vessels second such seizure in six days. South East Asia
9 December: LATE report of boarding of MV at Tanjung Anchorage in Indonesia Duty watchman onboard an anchored bulk carrier noticed three suspected thieves on deck. All the crew were mustered to the bridge and the authorities were notified. Local security forces boarded the vessel to investigate. It is unclear if any arrests were made. 9 December: LATE report of a robbery and boarding on MV at Cam Pha Anchorage, Vietnam During routine rounds, the duty crew onboard an anchored bulk carrier in Cam Pha Anchorage noticed a number of suspected thieves armed with bladed weapons and bamboo sticks. The alarm was raised and the crew mustered. Following the alarm, the thieves escaped on a wooden boat with some of the ship’s stores. 14 December: Law enforcement agencies hold anti-piracy drills off Manila Bay A series of drills were conducted with the Philippine Maritime Law Enforcement Agency, simulating potential piracy scenarios, in an effort to boost the capability of the authorities when responding to suspected piracy. A Closer Look
The Polish foreign ministry has confirmed that eleven foreigners who were kidnapped at the end of October have been freed The Polish foreign ministry has confirmed that eleven foreign crew members, including eight Polish nationals, who were kidnapped in October have been freed. The ministry did not give details regarding the conditions of their release. The crew, which is also reported to included two Filipinos and a Ukrainian, were taken when a German-owned Liberian-flagged vessel was attacked and boarded off the coast of Nigeria. According to the ministry, this is the fifth case in which Polish sailors have been kidnapped in the Gulf of Guinea since 2013. The waters in the area remain the most dangerous with attacks regularly reported. Honduran Naval Force (FNH) has bolstered its crime response fleet with the purchase of two new speedboats The vessels, MMI 35s, have been bought from Colombia’s Science and Technology Corporation for Naval, Maritime, and Riverine Industry Development (COTECMAR) in an effort to tackle narcotrafficking and transnational crime in the Caribbean. The vessels will also help tackle crime on a regional level. The vessels will be built in the next 12 months by SAFE Boats International. They will both have a range of 250nm and “possess the cutting edge in technology”. In 2018, the FNH carried out more than 3,300 maritime operations. With the acquisition of the MMI 35, service members expect to disrupt transnational crime rings and reduce the violence derived from narcotrafficking. The President of Pakistan has stated that the country’s armed forces, especially the navy, are doing an effective job President Dr. Arif Alvi said that the Pakistani armed forces are one of the most experienced armed forces in the world and the government are proud of their armed forces. He especially mentioned the Pakistani navy, as they, despite their limited resources, have “effectively safeguarded the maritime frontiers of the motherland”. He also mentioned that steps had been taken to stop “foreign intervention” in Balochistan. The President said that trade activities will be increased in the future due to Gwadar Port. However, he also underlined the need for the construction of new vessels for the Navy. Though he did say that the navy’s engineers were highly capable and ready for the job. There was also a final point on the need for a clean coastline to “promote tourism” and said that the Karachi Coast was particularly vulnerable. The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency has alleged that the International Maritime Bureau is misrepresenting Nigeria on Piracy reporting The Nigerian government’s Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has alleged that the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) is misrepresenting piracy in Nigeria by overstating the issue. In a meeting with the IMB the director of NIMASA, Dr. Peterside Dakuku. expressed his anger at the IMB delegation; stating that the country’s reputation was being distorted. The director general added that such distortions could result in reputational damage to the country amongst the international community. The director has also stated that Nigeria is making great strides to tackle piracy and noted that the country had invested in a new satellite surveillance system (mentioned in November’s Maritime Monthly). Additionally, he also explained that NIMASA had proposed a new anti-piracy bill, saying the law would give the agency the authority to prosecute maritime related crimes. The law is currently being considered by politicians in the Nigerian government. The Nigerian Navy has seen significant investment in both equipment and training in an effort to give the military a better footing to combat the increased threat. The Nigerian Navy now has 179 high-speed boats which are being deployed to combat pirate activities. The navy has also stated that it is “winning” the fight against sea pirates citing their improved presence at sea is reducing the incidence of piracy. The navy has attributed this stated success to the adoption of the Maritime Domain Awareness Infrastructure strategy launched a few years ago. However, despite the claims by the country’s navy and the affirmations made by the director of NIMASA, the latest figures from the IMB show that the threat of piracy in Nigerian waters is rising not dropping. The country’s waters are among the most dangerous in the world; according to a report by Brookings (incidents in territorial waters 2018 shown below). However, the IMB noted that the Nigerian navy has taken steps to tackle the threat.
Europe
18 December: A Russian cargo vessel ran aground off English coast A Russian cargo ship ran aground off Cornwall after its anchor dragged in high winds. The vessel began to list 5 degrees before tugs intervened and rescued the ship at high tide. Gulf of Guinea
14 December: Chemical tanker fired upon Armed pirate sin a speed boat fired on an underway chemical tanker. Onboard AST returned fire. Pirates then aborted their attack. 15 December: Attack on MV 84nm WSW of Brass, Nigeria A merchant vessel was reportedly attacked 84nm off Brass. Both the vessel and crew were reported safe. 19 December: Kidnapped crew, including Poles, freed Poland’s foreign ministry announced that eleven foreign crew, including eight Poles, who were kidnapped by pirates off the Nigerian coast in October have been freed. Americas
14 December: Failed robbery attempt reported at Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela Four robbers were sighted on the forecastle of an anchored crude oil tanker. Nothing was reported stolen following a search of the vessel. A patrol boat responding to the incident also carried out a search of the surrounding waters. Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean
13 December: Suspicious approach on MV A Philippines-flagged crude oil tanker was approached at high speed by between 15 and 20 skiffs all carrying four or five persons. Onboard ASTs fired warning shots which resulted in the skiffs abandoning the approach. The vessel and crew were reported safe after the incident. 14 December: Second arms seizure off Somalia coast in six days An Indian Navy vessel, that had been deployed as part of anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, seized arms from a fishing vessel off the coast of Somalia. This is the vessels second such seizure in six days. South East Asia
9 December: LATE report of boarding of MV at Tanjung Anchorage in Indonesia Duty watchman onboard an anchored bulk carrier noticed three suspected thieves on deck. All the crew were mustered to the bridge and the authorities were notified. Local security forces boarded the vessel to investigate. It is unclear if any arrests were made. 9 December: LATE report of a robbery and boarding on MV at Cam Pha Anchorage, Vietnam During routine rounds, the duty crew onboard an anchored bulk carrier in Cam Pha Anchorage noticed a number of suspected thieves armed with bladed weapons and bamboo sticks. The alarm was raised and the crew mustered. Following the alarm, the thieves escaped on a wooden boat with some of the ship’s stores. 14 December: Law enforcement agencies hold anti-piracy drills off Manila Bay A series of drills were conducted with the Philippine Maritime Law Enforcement Agency, simulating potential piracy scenarios, in an effort to boost the capability of the authorities when responding to suspected piracy. A Closer Look
The Polish foreign ministry has confirmed that eleven foreigners who were kidnapped at the end of October have been freed The Polish foreign ministry has confirmed that eleven foreign crew members, including eight Polish nationals, who were kidnapped in October have been freed. The ministry did not give details regarding the conditions of their release. The crew, which is also reported to included two Filipinos and a Ukrainian, were taken when a German-owned Liberian-flagged vessel was attacked and boarded off the coast of Nigeria. According to the ministry, this is the fifth case in which Polish sailors have been kidnapped in the Gulf of Guinea since 2013. The waters in the area remain the most dangerous with attacks regularly reported. Honduran Naval Force (FNH) has bolstered its crime response fleet with the purchase of two new speedboats The vessels, MMI 35s, have been bought from Colombia’s Science and Technology Corporation for Naval, Maritime, and Riverine Industry Development (COTECMAR) in an effort to tackle narcotrafficking and transnational crime in the Caribbean. The vessels will also help tackle crime on a regional level. The vessels will be built in the next 12 months by SAFE Boats International. They will both have a range of 250nm and “possess the cutting edge in technology”. In 2018, the FNH carried out more than 3,300 maritime operations. With the acquisition of the MMI 35, service members expect to disrupt transnational crime rings and reduce the violence derived from narcotrafficking. The President of Pakistan has stated that the country’s armed forces, especially the navy, are doing an effective job President Dr. Arif Alvi said that the Pakistani armed forces are one of the most experienced armed forces in the world and the government are proud of their armed forces. He especially mentioned the Pakistani navy, as they, despite their limited resources, have “effectively safeguarded the maritime frontiers of the motherland”. He also mentioned that steps had been taken to stop “foreign intervention” in Balochistan. The President said that trade activities will be increased in the future due to Gwadar Port. However, he also underlined the need for the construction of new vessels for the Navy. Though he did say that the navy’s engineers were highly capable and ready for the job. There was also a final point on the need for a clean coastline to “promote tourism” and said that the Karachi Coast was particularly vulnerable. The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency has alleged that the International Maritime Bureau is misrepresenting Nigeria on Piracy reporting The Nigerian government’s Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has alleged that the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) is misrepresenting piracy in Nigeria by overstating the issue. In a meeting with the IMB the director of NIMASA, Dr. Peterside Dakuku. expressed his anger at the IMB delegation; stating that the country’s reputation was being distorted. The director general added that such distortions could result in reputational damage to the country amongst the international community. The director has also stated that Nigeria is making great strides to tackle piracy and noted that the country had invested in a new satellite surveillance system (mentioned in November’s Maritime Monthly). Additionally, he also explained that NIMASA had proposed a new anti-piracy bill, saying the law would give the agency the authority to prosecute maritime related crimes. The law is currently being considered by politicians in the Nigerian government. The Nigerian Navy has seen significant investment in both equipment and training in an effort to give the military a better footing to combat the increased threat. The Nigerian Navy now has 179 high-speed boats which are being deployed to combat pirate activities. The navy has also stated that it is “winning” the fight against sea pirates citing their improved presence at sea is reducing the incidence of piracy. The navy has attributed this stated success to the adoption of the Maritime Domain Awareness Infrastructure strategy launched a few years ago. However, despite the claims by the country’s navy and the affirmations made by the director of NIMASA, the latest figures from the IMB show that the threat of piracy in Nigerian waters is rising not dropping. The country’s waters are among the most dangerous in the world; according to a report by Brookings (incidents in territorial waters 2018 shown below). However, the IMB noted that the Nigerian navy has taken steps to tackle the threat.
GLOBAL SECURITY FORECAST: WEEK 50
EUROPE: Belgium, Croatia, France; Netherlands (LOW) – Yellow vest protests likely to persist in coming weeks.
The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) protests that began in France over planned tax hikes on fuel, continue to spread and cause disruption throughout major European cities. After weeks of disruptive protests in France, President Emmanuel Macron conceded, ending the proposed eco-tax on fuel and introducing economic reform that will increase the minimum wage and reduce tax for most pensioners. Despite these concessions, the Gilets Jaunes movement continues to call for further anti-government demonstrations and the movement has been a catalyst for other anti-government protests in Europe. Major cities in Belgium and the Netherlands saw mass anti-government protests over the last week – attended by participants wearing yellow vests. Unlike in France, these protests are not in response to a specific event but appear to part of a wider movement that remains increasingly angry with the growing divide between the political and working classes. Protests are likely to continue in multiple countries in the coming weeks causing significant disruption. Police have used tear gas and water cannon to disperse demonstrators in key areas and made hundreds of arrests, detaining those who are found to be in possession of items that could be used as weapons. Please see our latest Travel Advisory for more information.
ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been numerous clashes between protesters and security forces, if you are caught near a protest, leave the area immediately, return to a safe location and follow the direction of the local authorities.
DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres (Country: HIGH; Civil Unrest: SEVERE) – Tensions rise ahead of impending elections. Anticipate unrest; associated clashes. Defer non-critical travel till January.
Tensions throughout the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have escalated ahead of the 23 December election as political demonstrations are increasingly descending into violent confrontations between political supporters and security forces. On 11 December, a political convoy driving through the streets in organised in support of Martin Fayulu led to clashes between security forces and protesters in Lubumbashi (Haut-Katanga province) resulting in one fatality and 40 injuries when police opened fire on protesters. Further violence occurred when supporters of Felix Tshisekedi, another of the main opposition candidates, arrived at the airport in Mbuji-Mayi (Kasai-Oriental province) on 13 December leading to one fatality. Tshisekedi had earlier held rallies in Beni (North Kivu province) and Bunia (Ituri province), the epicentre of the recent Ebola outbreak, leading to widespread unrest and associated violence in both towns.
In the capital Kinshasa, a fire broke out on 13 December at a building registered to the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), destroying 8,000 electronic voting machines, roughly two-third of the number required for voting in Kinshasa. The use of electronic voting machines has been condemned by several opposition parties expressing concerns that they will be rigged. The fire has reignited a debate over their use heightening the already tense atmosphere in the capital. After delaying the polls for two years, Joseph Kabila will step down from the presidency after 17 years in power creating significant uncertainty throughout the country. The election remains a flashpoint for a further deterioration in the security environment with the results likely to be challenged. See our latest Travel Advisory for more information.
ADVICE: Defer all travel to the DRC till 1 January. For those already in country, minimise movements in major urban centres between 22 – 24 December and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in country, ensure that you are in, secure, compound-based accommodation over the election period. Monitor Global Solace alerts for further details.
AUSTRALIA: Queensland; Northern Territories (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE) – Disruption likely following passage of category 4 Cyclone Owen. Plan journeys accordingly.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning in coastal regions of Queensland and the Northern Territories following Cyclone Owen making landfall on 13 December. Heavy rain and windspeeds of up to 200 km/h (124 mph) are expected as the cyclone moves down the coast and could prompt flooding and storm surges in low-lying areas. The intensity of the storm is expected to dissipate as it moves inland late on 12 December however travel disruption should be expected. The intensity and trajectories of storms can change with little notice and travellers should stay up to date with local media and Solace Global Alerts.
ADVICE: Disruption is expected in Queensland; Northern Territories in the coming days. Roads may become flooded and impassable and flights could be delayed or cancelled. Travellers due to fly to or from Queensland or the Northern Territories should speak with their airline to reconfirm itineraries. If conducting road travel in the coming days, ensure the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure your vehicle is in good condition and appropriately equipped for the weather conditions.
COSTA RICA: San José (Country: LOW; Environmental: MODERATE)
Further flight delays; cancellations from Juan Santamaría International Airport possible following eruption of Turrialba Volcano.
Increased activity at the Turrialba Volcano on 12 December has caused several delays to flights from Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) over the last 48 hours and further delays and cancellations are likely. The volcano situated 35 km (25 mi) from the capital, San José, is currently spewing a column of ash 500 – 800 meters above the crater (4000 – 5000 meters above sea level) which has been propagated by strong winds in the last 24 hours. Poor air quality is being reported in parts of the city posing additional health risks to travellers in the San José. The decision to delay or suspend flights due to volcanic ash remains at the discretion of airlines however, airlines will generally remain on the side of caution, not risking departing in high concentrations of ash.
ADVICE: Travellers due to fly from Juan Santamaría International Airport (SJO) should speak to their airline prior to travel to the airport to reconfirm itinerates. In the event of cancellations, your travel provider will be able to support with additional arrangements.
UKRAINE: Kiev (MODERATE) – Anticipate disruption during anti-Russia protests on 17 December
Ukraine’s minister for Veterans announced that a demonstration will take place in Independence Square in central Kiev on December 17 in support of the sailors who have been detained in Russia since 25 November. The rally, which is due to take place at 19.00, is expected to be attended by thousands of citizens, veterans as well as several high-profile politicians. Tensions remain elevated between Russia and Ukraine since Russia boarded three Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Strait and detained 24 crewmen. Please see our recent Travel Advisory for more information.
ADVICE: Heightened security measures and significant traffic disruption is expected in the vicinity of the rally. The rally is expected to transpire peacefully; however, travellers should plan routes avoiding Independence Square.
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 50 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
GLOBAL HEADLINES: 7 – 14 December 2018
FRANCE: Strasbourg (LOW) – Police shoot and kill gunman who attacked Christmas Market on 11 Dec in suspected terror attack. Late on 13 December, French Police shot and killed the individual accused of committing the Strasbourg Christmas Market on 11 December. Three people died following the suspected terror attack two days earlier when the 29-year-old French national of Moroccan descent indiscriminately opened fire on passers-by near Place Kleber in central Strasbourg. The assailant was shot by responding security forces but managed to flee in a Taxi towards the Neudorf suburb of Strasbourg. There were fears that he had managed to cross the border into Germany however at 21.00 on 13 December, three police officers spotted a male matching the suspect’s description in the Neudorf area. When they approached the man to stop him, the suspect opened fire. The police responded by firing back, killing the attacker. The Strasbourg Christmas Market has subsequently will reopen from tonight. The attack at Strasbourg Christmas Market has prompted fears that terrorist will seek to target major tourist attractions in Europe over the festive period. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) have subsequently updated their travel website notifying all British citizens to remain vigilant over the Christmas and New Year period. The attack in Strasbourg highlights the continued intent for terror groups to inspire lone wolf attacks that spark media attention. Please read our latest Travel Advisory for more information on the Strasbourg attack. ADVICE: Travellers should exercise enhanced vigilance if travelling in Europe throughout the Christmas period and report any suspicious behaviour or packages to the local authorities. Security in Strasbourg is likely to remain high in the coming days and could lead to potential disruption. RWANDA: Rubavu district (MODERATE) – Militants attack village in cross border raid. Travellers advised to exercise caution in border regions. A spokesperson for Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) has reported that the Rwandan soldiers engaged in a firefight on 9 December with militants suspected of being part of the Congolese group Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). The militants are believed to have crossed the border from Gome (North Kivu Province) in the DRC before assaulting the village of Cyamabuye. The RDF responded quickly to the incident repelling the attack and killing four militants. One civilian was also injured in the attack. Cross-border attacks by militant groups have become increasingly rare in Rwanda, stabilising the security environment in border areas with the DRC. While it remains too early to tell whether there will be an upsurge of such attacks, travellers should carefully monitor developments. The last such cross-border FDLR attack was reported to be in 2016, resulting in the death of numerous civilians. The impact of cross-border attacks is further exacerbated by the escalating Ebola crisis in the neighbouring North Kivu and Ituri provinces, heightening the risk that cross-border militants could also carry the spread of the virus. ADVICE: Travel to Rwanda’s western border can continue however, travellers should consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of further attacks from DRC rebels on Rwandan territory. Given the current complexity surrounding transmission control relating to the Ebola outbreak, travellers should follow international advice on transmission control and minimise time spent in rural areas. TOGO: Lomé; urban centres (Country: MODERATE; Civil Unrest: HIGH) – Multiple fatalities reported as anti-government protests persist Political parties opposed to the upcoming constitutional referendum on 16 December are continuing to call for civil demonstrations up until the 18 December. Large-scale protests have already taken place in the capital Lomé and other urban centres over the referendum that will seek to re-introduce presidential term limits, but retroactively allow current President, Faure Gnassingbé, to contest a further two terms. Opposition parties are requesting that Gnassingbé, who has ruled since his father’s death in 2005, be limited to his already served terms in office. The Togo government banned all opposition protests in the build-up to the referendum, however, this has not stemmed the protests with tens of thousands of civilians taking to streets in Lomé on 8 December and thousands demonstration in Sokode the second biggest city, on 10 December. Security forces have responded aggressively to the protests. Local media have reported that they have used live ammunition and tear gas in an attempt to disperse protesters. Six civilian fatalities have been reported so far. Please read our latest Travel Advisory for more information on the recent unrest in Togo. ADVICE: Opposition groups are likely to defy the government order and continue with planned protests in major urban centres leading to widespread clashes with security forces. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area and avoid all protests. Minimise movement outside safe accommodation on 16 and 20 December.SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS – December 13 onwards
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 16 Dec | Bahrain | National Day | LOW |
| 16 Dec | Kazakhstan | Independence Day | LOW |
| 16 Dec | Togo | Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform | MODERATE |
| 17 Dec | Bhutan | National Day | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 18 Dec | Qatar | National Day | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 19 Dec | Madagascar | Second round of presidential vote | HIGH |
| 20 Dec | Togo | Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 22 Dec | Iraq | Provincial elections | HIGH |
| 23 Dec | DRC | Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections | SEVERE |
| 30 Dec | Bangladesh | Parliamentary elections | HIGH |
| 31 Dec | Guinea-Bissau | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| TBC Jan | Guinea | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 50 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
MARITIME SNAPSHOT – WEEK 50
A Closer Look at Maritime Incidents This Week
The Gulf of Guinea’s shifting piracy trends
The Gulf of Guinea’s shifting piracy trends
The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is currently seeing a shift in piracy trends, while maritime hijackings are down, the total incident numbers are up. The majority of the incidents in the GoG have been reported around Nigeria; however, there has also been a noticeable increase in boardings at the Takoradi anchorage in Ghana.
A vital statistic for the area is that 37 of the 39 crew kidnappings for ransom globally have occurred in the GoG region; in seven separate incidents. Of these, 29 of them occurred in four separate incidents off Nigeria – this includes the kidnapping of 12 crewmembers in September form a Swiss-flagged bulk carrier off Bonny Island, Nigeria. The crew members were later released (in October) after a ransom was most likely paid.
The region is currently seeing the highest concentration of pirate activity as in other areas of the world, incidents of piracy and armed robbery are comparatively rare. The coast of Somalia is now well police with the last attack occurring in October and resulting in the security team onboard successfully repelling the attackers. South-East Asia has seen a number of attacks on fisherman by Abu Sayyaf militants; however, at this time, militants have not attempted to attack larger vessels. While, finally, South America is seeing opportunistic theft from vessels at anchor.
Nevertheless, the risk of piracy remains high in certain areas. The Nigerian Navy actively responds and dispatches patrol boats when incidents have been reported promptly; highlighting the importance of crews reporting incidents in a timely manner.
As reported in the Maritime Monthly, the Nigerian economy has lost at least over US$2.5 Billion as a result of piracy. The country’s Senate has negotiated eight maritime bills in three years in am an attempt to tackle the issue. It is hoped that the country’s navy, and those of surrounding countries, can copy the success that foreign navies have had in the Indian Ocean (see below) when it comes to tackling the current threat.
BBC report on the success of how foreign navies have curbed piracy off Somalia’s coast
The BBC’s Anne Soy has written about how foreign navies have managed to successfully curb piracy off the Somali coast. In the article, Foy highlights the role the European Union Naval Force (EUNavfor) has played in tackling the risk of piracy in the area. However, the article fails to mention the critical role that the industry has played in providing armed security onboard vessels as well as the implementation of BMP measures. To read more: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46454055
Abu Sayyaf linked to two attacks while Malaysian counter-terror police make seven arrests
There have been numerous incidents involving the designated terrorist group Abu Sayyaf in the past week. On 5 December, the crew of an Indonesian tugboat successfully repelled four armed attackers near Pegasus Reef, Sabah, Malaysia. It was reported that the attack was successfully repelled by the tub crew using a flare gun to fire at the militants.
Separately, on the same day, an Indonesian fisherman who had been captured in September in the same area was freed. According to sources in the Philippines, the country’s military were involved in the release of the abducted fisherman.
Also on the 5 December, a vessel, believed to be a fishing vessel, was attacked by what is believed to be as many as 20 armed men. The attackers, also reportedly part of the Abu Sayyaf group, are understood to have abducted three fishermen.
Malaysian counter-terrorism police also reported that they arrested seven terror suspects, including a member of Abu Sayyaf. Those arrested had reportedly been involved in three kidnappings in the southern Philippines and Sabah, Malaysia. The operations were conducted last month and also reportedly resulted in the detention of two Islamic State (IS) linked extremists.
Finally, a soldier was killed on 7 December following a gun battle that lasted for 30 minutes. The firefight occurred at dusk in Barangay Bungkaong, Patikul, Sulu, between elements of the Philippines Army’s 21st Infantry Battalion and around 30 Abu Sayyaf militants. At least one other soldier was killed in the firefight.
The incidents demonstrate the threat presented by the group in the region and while at this stage the group has only targeted fishing vessels and small tugboats, the threat to larger international shipping remains. Extra vigilance should be carried out if transiting waters off Eastern Sabah and Sulu-Celebes Seas. The group are especially interested in businessmen or crew from foreign vessels passing through the area.
Global Security Forecast: Week 49
TOGO: Nationwide (Moderate) – Nationwide: Anticipate heightened security; disruption, following ban on opposition protest
The Togolese government have banned all opposition protests and rallies in the build up to the 20 December legislative elections stating fears over public disorder. Demonstrations had been planned by opposition leaders in urban centres throughout the country from 8 December to 18 December calling for the deferral of the election process to allow for constitutional reforms. Fourteen opposition political parties, who make up the main opposition collation, denounced electoral irregularities and subsequently did not submit candidates for the upcoming elections. Togo has been engulfed in political crisis over the last year with regular demonstrations calling for the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, who has ruled the country since 2005 following the death of his father. The three main religious institutes in Togo have backed calls to postpone the December elections, questioning the transparency and accountability of the current ballot process.
ADVICE: Opposition groups are likely to defy the government order and continue with planned protests in major urban centres leading to localised clashes with security forces. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
ARMENIA: Yerevan, Urban Centres (Low) – Snap parliamentary elections due to be held on 9 December, unrest possible
Following acting Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian, decision to resign and dissolve parliament, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has announced that snap elections will be held on 9 December. The decision comes a month after tens of thousands of people protested in the Armenia capital, Yerevan, against a bill that would make it increasingly difficult for the prime minister to call for new elections. Armenia experienced a peaceful revolution in May this year when hundreds of thousands of people protested the perceived corruption and cronyism within Armenia’s ruling class, forcing the Prime Minister, Serzh Sargsyan, to resign.
ADVICE: While protests generally pass of peacefully, travellers should avoid all election-related gatherings as a precaution, Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
Jordan: Amman (Moderate) – Heightened security; travel disruption expected as protests over new tax laws persist
In the latest in a series of protests, hundreds of Jordanians took to the streets in the capital Amman on 6 December to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz. This is the third such protest in Amman following the governments introduction of International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed austerity measures that have ended bread subsidies and increased taxes. The measures are expected to disproportionately impact low to mid-income earners, reinforcing already existing inequality within the country. Yesterday’s protest occurred at 17.00 (local time) near Amman’s 4th circle. Demonstrators attempted to march from the courtyard of Jordan Hospital to the 4th circle roundabout. Security forces intervened to stop protesters marching on the roundabout and disrupting traffic at rush hour. Protests are likely to persist in the coming weeks and clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out.
ADVICE: Avoid all protests as a precaution due to the risk of travel disruption. Violent clashes between protesters and security forces cannot be ruled out. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
Thailand: Countrywide (Low) – Cycling event to cause significant travel disruption, road closures in city centre on 9 December
More than 85,000 people have signed up to take part in the Bike Un Ai Rak cycling event on 9 December taking place in the Thai capital, Bangkok. The event is due to begin at 15.00 (local time), with road closures expected from 12.00 to 19.00 on the day. Public transport, including buses, sky trains, subways, and expressways will be overcrowded as ticket prices have been waived for those taking part in the event. Residual travel disruption is expected throughout the city. Cyclists will begin their ride at the Dusit Palace before making their way south through the city to Lat Pho Park, south of the Chao Phraya River, they will then return on a similar route. Up to 25 major roads in central Bangkok with remain closed for the duration of the event and travellers are advised to avoid road travel in central Bangkok.
ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key event locations to minimise disruption.
United Kingdom: London (Low) – Pro-Brexit rally on 9 December likely to cause travel disruption in central London, counter protests expected
Thousands of people are expected to attend a pro-Brexit rally demanding there is no ‘betrayal’ by politicians when they vote on Teresa May’s current deal to leave the European Union (EU). The current proposal on the terms of the divorce between the EU and Great Britain has angered several pro-Brexit politicians who argue the deal is not reflective of what the country voted on during the referendum. Protesters will meet at the Dorchester hotel in Park Lane before marching on Whitehall, where the rally will be staged. Far-right politician Tommy Robinson, aka Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, and UKIP leader, Gerard Batten are expected to speak at the event. A counter-protest has been organised and will run concurrently to the pro-Brexit protest. While the Metropolitan police have made a statement ensuring that policing will be upscaled in the protest-affected areas, clashes between rival supporters cannot be ruled out.
ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between rival protesters in the past, if you are caught near a protest, leave the area immediately, return to a safe location and follow the direction of the local authorities
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast Week 49 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
GLOBAL HEADLINES: 30 – 06 December 2018
IRAN: Chabahar (Moderate) – Car bomb kills four and injures at least 40 in south eastern port city on 6 November A vehicle-born improvised explosive device was detonated outside the police headquarters in the south eastern port city of Chabahar (Sistan e Baluchistan province), killing four police officer and injuring at least 40 people. The suicide bomber drove a vehicle laden with explosives at the headquarters but failed to reach the target before detonating the explosives. Local police officers stationed at a check point outside the building have been commended for stopping the vehicle from reaching its intended target. Ansar al-Fuqran, a Sunni Baloch militant group who want autonomy from Iran, claimed responsibility for the attack. Iran’s Sistan e Baluchistan province, which borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, is one of two majority Sunni provinces in Shia dominated Iran and is populated by ethnic Baloch’s who identify closely with the Baluchistan province in Pakistan. Sistan e Baluchistan suffers one of the highest rates of poverty in the country, remains severely underdeveloped and is largely cut off from the political scene in Tehran. Livelihoods are centred around cross border smuggling with Pakistan which Iranian security forces are increasingly trying to stop. While such attacks remain rare due to the capability of Iranian security forces in the region, there remains a persistent threat of terrorist and militant attacks in the region. ADVICE: Travel to Sistan e Baluchistan should be only be considered for business-critical purposes only due to the threat posed by kidnapping, criminality and terrorist attacks. Organisation’s should work with a local trusted partner to ensure they receive the correct documentation to travel to the region. Travellers in the province should minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. UKRAINE: Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts (Moderate) – Ukraine’s security forces carry out raids on Russia Orthodox churches; tensions remain elevated Ukraine’s security forces conducted a series of raids on 3 December targeting Orthodox Churches and the homes of Orthodox priests. Up to eight searches were conducted by security forces in Kiev and Zhtomyr oblasts and appeared to target churches who had rejected the recent independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, pledging their allegiance to the Russian branch of the Orthodox church. The Ukrainian security forces stated that the searches were in response to recent allegations that certain churches were inciting hatred and violence throughout their congregations. Up to 20 priests have been summoned for questioning by police forces in recent days. The raids are likely to spark protests by members of the Russian Orthodox church in the coming days and further provoke the already tense political standoff between Russia and Ukraine. ADVICE: Travel to Ukraine remains possible however travellers should stay up to date with local news and regional developments. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any changes in the security environment or travel restrictions in the local area. Russian males age 16 to 60 remain unable to travel Ukraine at the present time and martial law is in effect till in the ten regions bordering Russia. Read our latest travel advisory on the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine following the Kerch Strait incident. AFGHANISTAN: Kabul (Severe) – Parliamentary election results found to be invalid, protest likely Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) announced on 6 December that all votes cast in Kabul during the October parliamentary elections are invalid citing 25 conduct reasons for the decision, including mismanagement and fraud. The findings will now be reviewed by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC). According to the Afghan constitution, if the findings are ratified by the IEC, the Election Commission will have seven days to arrange secondary polls. Only 14 of the 33 provinces have announced the official results following the ballot that took place on 20 October, casting doubts on the credibility of the election process. The announcement by the IECC is expected to be met with anger by Kabul residents and will likely lead to protests in the capital in the coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts. Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency.SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 9 Dec | Armenia | Parliamentary Elections | LOW |
| 9 Dec | Peru | Constitutional Referendum | MODERATE |
| 9 Dec | Tanzania | Independence Day | LOW |
| 10 Dec | Libya | Presidential and Parliamentary elections (Postponed) | HIGH |
| 12 Dec | Kenya | Jamhuri Day (Independence Day) | LOW |
| 16 Dec | Bahrain | National Day | LOW |
| 16 Dec | Kazakhstan | Independence Day | LOW |
| 16 Dec | Togo | Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform | MODERATE |
| 17 Dec | Bhutan | National Day | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 18 Dec | Qatar | National Day | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 19 Dec | Madagascar | Second round of presidential vote | HIGH |
| 20 Dec | Togo | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 22 Dec | Iraq | Provincial elections | HIGH |
| 30 Dec | DRC | Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections | HIGH |
| 30 Dec | Bangladesh | Parliamentary elections | HIGH |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast Week 49 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Global Security Forecast – Week 48
GLOBAL FORECAST: 30 – 06 December
UNITED STATES: MIDWEST STATES (LOW) – Anticipate travel disruption as severe weather warning issued from 30 November to 2 December. The US National Weather Service (NWS) have issued a winter weather warning for large parts of the Mid-West and Northern Plains with blizzard conditions expected from the evening of Friday 30 November until 2 December. Up to 11 inches of snow has been forecast in areas of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota and wind speeds are expected to reach speeds of up to 55 km (35 miles) per hour leading to severe disruption in affected areas. The recent weather warning follows significant disruption in Illinois and Missouri states on 26 and 27 November after blizzard-like conditions left 200,000 homes without power, grounded more than 1700 flights and led to treacherous driving conditions. ADVICE: Travellers currently in, or travelling to, the affected states should reconfirm the status of their flights with the relevant airline or airport, follow all directives issued by local authorities and check the status of routes before embarking on any road move. Early December is historically the busiest travel period in the US and travellers should anticipate a knock-on impact to flights if widespread cancellations are announced. ARGENTINA: BUENOS AIRES (LOW) – Expect travel disruption; heightened security during G20 summit from 30 Nov – 1 Dec World leaders will gather in the capital, Buenos Aires, on 30 November to take part in the two-day G20 summit. Heightened security measures have been implemented throughout the city and the main business district will remain closed for the duration of the summit. The event is being held at the Costa Salguero convention centre and widespread disruption and street closures are expected throughout the Palermo neighbourhood as well as localised anti-G20 protests. Jorge Newbery (AEP), El Palomar (EPA), San Fernando (FDO) and Moron (MXV) airports have been closed to commercial flights to allow for the arrival of foreign dignitaries. Ezeiza International Airport (EZE) will remain open but heightened security and associated disruptions are to be expected. ADVICE: Anticipate disruption throughout Buenos Aires from the 30 November including at Ezeiza International Airport (EZE). Where possible, avoid travel to Palermo neighbourhood and the main business district. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. GEORGIA: TBILISI (LOW) – Opposition parties to demonstrate on 2 December to denounce election results. A coalition of opposition political groups, including the former ruling party the United National Movement (UNM), have called for anti-government protests to be held in the capital city, Tbilisi, on 2 December amidst widespread accusations that the recent presidential election was rigged. Former President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke via video link from Freedom Square on 29 November to denounce the election process that saw the independent candidate, funded by the Georgian Dream party, Salome Zurabishvili, win a second-round poll with around 60 percent of the vote. Allegations of vote buying, and a rigged polling process have been reported in local media sources and international election observers describe the campaigning process as an ‘uneven playing field’. Protesters are expected to march on Rustaveli Avenue in the morning and remain there throughout the day. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in-country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area. LIBYA: COUNTRYWIDE (SEVERE) – Anticipate unrest following decision to postpone elections till spring 2019. An international summit on Libya, held in Italy on 12 November, concluded with the announcement that the Libyan parliamentary and presidential elections will be postponed till spring. The decision was made following the increase in violence in recent months between rival groups and the failure of the two parallel governing bodies to agree on the terms of the election process. At present the UN-backed Government of National Accord, made up of powerful Misrata and Tripoli-based militias, govern in the west of the country while the House of Representative, alongside the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Khalifa Haftar, govern in the east. The scheduled polls have been seen as a potential tool to reconcile the two governments in an effort to unite the country. The postponement of Parliamentary elections will result in localised protests in urban centres as Libyan nationals call for greater transparency and accountability in the governance process. Violence between rival militia groups is expected to continue as they compete for power and control in certain areas of the country. ADVICE: All travel to Libya should be supported by an accredited and trusted security provider with 24-hour response capability, secure journey management procedures as well as in-country intelligence and logistics support. Travellers in-country should stay up to date with local media and liaise with their security provider regarding the feasibility of ground movement during periods of unrest.GLOBAL HEADLINES 23 – 29 NOVEMBER
RUSSIA; UKRAINE: KERCH STRAIT (MODERATE) – Tensions elevated as Russia seize Ukrainian naval vessels in Kerch Strait on 25 November The Russian Federal Security Services (FSB) border guard rammed, then fired upon, three Ukrainian naval vessels before boarding and detaining 23 Ukrainian sailors on 25 November. It is the first Russian-acknowledged use of force against Ukraine since the 2014 escalation of violence in Crimea. According to Ukrainian media, at least six crewmen were injured during the incident which occurred in the strategically important Kerch Strait, a thin waterway between mainland Russia and Crimea and the only transit route to the sea of Azov. The waterway remains crucial to Ukrainian economic and military interests as it is the only route that serves the port city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine. The 23 Ukrainian crewmen are now being held by Russian forces in Russian annexed Crimea. Ukraine immediate response to the incident was to call the attack, ‘an act of aggression’, while also rushing a Presidential decree through parliament, declaring 30-days of martial law in the ten regions of Ukraine bordering Russia. ADVICE: While the escalation in tensions between the two countries represents a concern for travellers, especially those operating near Russian annexed Crimea, it is unlikely that the incident will prompt anything more than a political response. Russian males will not be allowed to enter Ukraine from 30 November. Anti-Russia protests were held outside the Russian embassy in Kiev on 26 November causing minor disruption around the embassy. Travellers should remain up to date with local intelligence and media and avoid all protests as a precaution. AFGHANISTAN: KABUL (SEVERE) – Ten people killed after compound of security firm targeted in complex attack on 28 November At least ten people were killed and 19 were injured following a complex attack on a compound run by a British security company in Kabul. At 18.30, a vehicle based improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated at the entrance to the compound before armed men stormed the building leading to a fierce firefight between armed security staff and the attackers. The attack occurred hours after Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani, outlined his plans to promote peace in the country. The Taliban have subsequently claimed responsibility for the attack stating that the compound was considered by the group to be a base for occupying forces and has been used to carry out attacks with Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The attack comes amidst growing anti-government protests in Kabul calling for greater political transparency and security. Thirty people have subsequently been injured following the use of live ammunition by security forces attempting to disperse protesters. ADVICE: Travel to Afghanistan should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by an accredited security provider. Terror groups have shown both the desire and capability to launch attacks in the capital Kabul. If travel is business critical, minimise time spent around religious sites, government buildings and police checkpoints. Always seek the advice of a trained security specialist prior to travel. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC): KINSHASA (HIGH) – US Embassy Kinshasa remains closed for the fifth consecutive day on 30 November following possible terrorist threat The US embassy in the capital, Kinshasa, has remained shut for a fifth consecutive day following credible and precise information of a possible terrorist threat against US government facilities in Kinshasa. The embassy released a statement to its citizens on Monday 26 November via its website urging US citizens to remain vigilant and keep a low profile. The closure comes four weeks ahead of the DRC legislative and presidential elections which have been delayed for two years. Congolese government authorities have played down the threat, stating that the US embassy has over-reacted to the incident. Although it is not known who has issued a threat toward the US, multiple militias groups are currently engaged in clashes including, the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). On 12 March 2017, a US national and special investigator for the UN was killed alongside his Swedish colleague by rebels near the city of Kananga (Lulua province) while investigating government abuses in the province. While UN investigations found the militant group Kamuina Nsapu complicit in the killing, several other investigations have identified that Congolese intelligence service, the Agence Nationale de Renseignements (ANR), were linked to the attack. ADVICE: Travellers in Kinshasa should maintain a low profile and exercise vigilance while in Kinshasa. Avoid the area near the US embassy and continue to monitor their website and local news sources for up to date information. Traveller should consider minimising movement in the city during the build-up to the election as widespread unrest is expected.UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for violence |
| 30 Nov | Argentina | G20 Summit | LOW |
| Nov (exp) | Chad | Legislative elections (postponed) | HIGH |
| 1 Dec | Central African Rep. | National Day | MODERATE |
| 1 Dec | Mexico | Presidential Inauguration | MODERATE |
| 2 Dec | Laos | National Day | LOW |
| 2 Dec | UAE | National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 3 Dec | Poland | Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice, | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 10 Dec | Libya | Presidential and Parliamentary elections (postponed) | HIGH |
| 16 Dec | Togo | Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform | MODERATE |
| 19 Dec | Madagascar | Second round of presidential vote | HIGH |
| 20 Dec | Togo | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 22 Dec | Iraq | Provincial elections | HIGH |
| 23 Dec | DRC | Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections | HIGH |
| 30 Dec | Bangladesh | Parliamentary elections | HIGH |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 48 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Weekly Security Forecast: 23 Nov 2018
GLOBAL FORECAST: 23 – 30 NOVEMBER
GUINEA-BISSAU: URBAN CENTRES (MODERATE) – Anticipate protests following further delay in legislative elections A further delay in the deadline for voter registration has led to the postponement of legislative elections in Guinea Bissau. The polls that were meant to take place on November 18 have now been pushed back to an undetermined date. Local reports suggest only 230,000 people of the estimated 900,000 eligible voters have been registered to vote. In response to the latest interruption in election proceedings, opposition and civil society groups are expected to launch a series of rallies demanding transparency and accountability in the capital Bissau and other urban centres. On 21 October, thousands of people peacefully demonstrated in Bissau over the irregularities in the voter registration process leading to severe traffic disruptions. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.ARGENTINA: ALL AIRPORTS (LOW) – Aviation and transport sector workers strike on 26; 27 November, severe disruption expected Employees and union members of national carrier Aerolineas Argentinas will hold a 24-hour strike on 26 November following the suspension of 376 of their colleagues who had taken part in a previous strike on 8 November. The strike will cause significant delays at all airports throughout the country, with up to 100% of flights cancelled. The 8 November strike led to the grounding of 258 flights with up to 30,000 passengers affected. Transport Unions are also planning to hold a nationwide public sector strike on 27 November from 04.00 to 07.00 (local time) affecting flights, ferries and all public transport. ADVICE: Reconfirm flight schedules with your airline before travelling to the airport. In the event of cancellations consult your travel provider for alternative arrangements.
NIGERIA: ABUJA, LAGOS, URBAN CENTRES (HIGH) – Electoral campaign period officially begins ahead of 16 February presidential election. The official campaign period began on 19 November ahead of 16 February 2019 presidential election. Travellers should anticipate a substantial increase in the frequency of political rallies and demonstrations in most major urban centres throughout Nigeria, including in the capital, Abuja, as well as the commercial centre, Lagos. Rallies are likely to cause disruption in urban centres and lead to road closures. Civil society groups will also use the opportunity to launch anti-government and anti-corruption protests. Most rallies are likely to arrange with local authorities ahead of time and pass off relatively peacefully however, security forces have a history of using tear gas and live ammunition when trying to disperse demonstrators. On 23 November, protesters amassed outside the US embassy to demand free and fair elections and draw international attention to the ongoing insecurity currently felt throughout the country. ADVICE: Avoid all election-related gatherings due to the risk of violence. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
FRANCE: COUNTRYWIDE (LOW) – Anticipate travel disruption as protests over increases in fuel prices continue Protest over the increase in fuel prices are expected to continue this weekend causing widespread travel disruption throughout urban centres in France. Over the past week protesters have attempted to block motorways and petrol stations leading to severe traffic delays in Pairs, Avignon, Bordeaux and Strasbourg. Organisers of the protest have stated that on Saturday, 24 November, they will launch mass protests in Paris in an attempt to bring the capital to a standstill. Demonstrations are likely to affect most major roads in the capital including the A1 and A3 highways that connect central Paris to Charles de Gaulle Airport. To read more please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between motorists and protesters, if you are caught in traffic caused by protests, remain in your car and follow the direction of the local authorities.
GLOBAL HEADLINES 16 – 23 NOVEMBER
BELGIUM: BRUSSELS (LOW) – Policeman stabbed near Grand Place on 20 November, motives unclear A policeman was stabbed, sustaining nonlife threatening injuries, in the early hours of the morning in central Brussels. The attacker, a Belgian national, was subsequently shot and wounded as police officers responded to the incident near Grand Place in the historic centre of the city. Local news agencies have reported that the attacker shouted “Allahu Akbar” during the incident. The assailant had been recently released from prison following a conviction for attempted manslaughter. In a remarkably similar attack on 30 May a gunman, who police believe was radicalised in prison, killed two police officers and one civilian in a religiously motivated attack in Liege before being shot and killed by police. The Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for the May incident. While intelligence and counter-terrorism measures have improved in Belgium since the March 2016 coordinated suicide bombings, small scale, lone wolf attacks remain possible. ADVICE: Travellers in Belgium should maintain situational awareness and report any suspicious behaviour to the police. Minimise movements near police stations and government buildings. If visiting tourist attractions, avoid peak hours.AFGHANISTAN: KABUL (SEVERE) – Suicide explosion kills at least 60 at religious ceremony on 20 Nov At least 50 people were killed and over 80 were injured following a suicide bombing at 18:15 (local time) at Uranus Wedding Hall in police district 15, north of Kabul. Religious scholars had gathered at the wedding hall to celebrate the birthdate of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad (Eid Milad-un-Nabi). The Taliban immediately released a statement denying their involvement in the attack. While no group has yet claimed responsibility, the Islamic State in Khoresan (IS-K), an Islalmic State affiliate, have launched a string of attacks against religious minority groups over the last 12 months, calling them heretics and non-believers. To read more please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travel to Afghanistan should be for business-critical purposes only and supported by an accredited security provider. Islamist groups have shown both the desire and capability to launch attacks in the capital Kabul. If travel is business critical, minimise time spent around religious sites, government buildings and police check points. Always seek the advice of a trained security specialist prior to travel.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC): TANGANYIKA PROVINCE (HIGH) – Two American humanitarian workers killed by militants on 15 Nov Two aid workers were killed by armed militants while returning from a field visit 80 km from their office in Kalemie in the south eastern province of Tanganyika. The aid workers had been travelling by motorcycle on the road when they were stopped and shot by the armed militants. It is not yet known if the incident was motivated by criminal or other intent. Since 2016, inter-ethnic violence between the indigenous Twa and migrant Bantu populations has led to widespread displacement and insecurity in the region. Twelve refugee camps are located near Kalemie managing over 70 thousand people. In recent months there has been an escalation in attacks targeting humanitarian workers and international organisations throughout DRC’s eastern provinces. On 17 November an international NGO had its vehicles looted in Baraka (South Kivu) and on 20 November armed men attacked and looted international NGO compound in Lulimba (south Kivu). Attacks on International NGOs are likely to continue due to the high presence of armed militias and a worsening economic situation. ADVICE: Staff should understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency. Prioritise establishing networks with other organisations operating in the area with clear information sharing arrangements. Remain up to date with the latest location specific security information and trends by monitoring news sources and security alerts.
UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for violence |
| 24 Nov | Bahrain | Parliamentary elections | High |
| 24 Nov | Australia | State elections | Insignificant |
| 25 Nov | Mali | Legislative elections | High |
| 25 Nov | Bosnia | Republic Day | Low |
| 25 Nov | Suriname | Independence Day | Low |
| 28 Nov | Albania | Independence Day | Low |
| 28 Nov | Mauritania | Independence Day | Low |
| 30 Nov | Argentina | G20 Summit | Insignificant |
| Nov (exp) | Chad | Legislative elections (date not announced) | High |
| 1 Dec | Central African Rep. | National Day | Moderate |
| 2 Dec | Laos | National Day | Low |
| 2 Dec | UAE | National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates | Insignificant |
| 3 Dec | Poland | Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice, | Insignificant |
| 10 Dec | Libya | Presidential and Parliamentary elections | High |
| 16 Dec | Togo | Local elections, referendum on constitutional and electoral reform | Moderate |
| 19 Dec | Madagascar | Second round of presidential vote | High |
| 20 Dec | Togo | Legislative elections | Moderate |
| 22 Dec | Iraq | Provincial elections | High |
| 23 Dec | DRC | Presidential, legislative, regional and local elections | High |
| 30 Dec | Bangladesh | Parliamentary elections | High |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Global Security Forecast – Week 47 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Week 46-47 – Maritime Security Snapshot
The main area of activity in the past two weeks has been in the Gulf of Guinea. There have been numerous boardings and attacks; this includes a kidnapping that required Nigerian Navy intervention. By contrast, the Indian Ocean HRA has been relatively quiet over the past weeks with no significant incidents since the attack on 16 October off the Somali coast and the two suspicious approaches in Bab el Mandeb Strait at the beginning of November. Elsewhere, the Mediterranean has been seeing GPS outages near Port Said and Cyprus since March. While it remains unclear what is causing these disruptions, it is likely that military operations by both the Egyptian military and the Russian Navy are the cause. Please see below for more:
Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 46-47 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Gulf of Guinea
11 November: Vessel attacked and boarded by armed men near Bonny, Nigeria. A drifting UK-flagged bulk carrier was attacked and boarded by armed pirates at position 4°7’0 N 7°0’0 E. The boarders stole ship stores, robbed the vessel and kidnapped 10 members of the crew before escaping. Nigerian Navy vessels intercepted the pirates and freed the hostages. 11 November: MV attacked by armed men in blue boat, Niger River, Nigeria. A MV was attacked by eight armed men at 0600 UTC 2nm off the mouth of the River Niger, Nigeria. The attackers were in a small blue-coloured boat, wore black/dark clothes, and covered their faces. The security team onboard the vessel thwarted the attack; however, the assailants escaped. 14 November: Tanker boarded near Lagos, Nigeria. An intruder was spotted onboard by a crewmember who sounded the alarm. As the crew gathered, the intruder fled by jumping overboard. No items were stolen and no injuries to the crew were reported. The authorities are investigating the incident. 14 November: A black speedboat with six armed men onboard sighted in Emeroke Channel, Nigeria It is unclear what the target of the suspicious vessel was. This is the second such sighting of a suspicious vessel in the area. On 5 November a similar vessel with armed men on board was sighted near Akwa Ibom Creeks. 19 November: The Nigerian Navy has impounded 52 vessels and arrested 40 people for alleged piracy. According to the Flag Officer Commanding (FOC), Western Naval Command, Rear Admiral Habila Ngalabak, the arrests have occurred over the past two to three months as part of a push against piracy-related activities in this period. 22 November: Nigerian flagged vessel boarded by pirates in the Gulf of Guinea, south of Kwa Ibo. The crew took refuge in the citadel as the pirates boarded the vessel. The boarders left via a blue hulled boat before a security vessel managed to intervene. The crew is reported safe and no crewmen were kidnapped. However, there was some damage to the bridge. The direction that the pirates escaped in is unknown.Bab El-Mandeb Strait
November: Arab Coalition Forces destroy 16 naval mines off Yemen’s west coast. According to Arab coalition sources, the mines had been planted by Houthi militants in international waters. It is unclear if further mines remain in the area.Mediterranean
11 November: Multiple instances of GPS interference reported by vessels and aircraft operating in the Eastern Mediterranean. These reports have been concentrated near Port Said and the Suez Canal, Egypt, as well as in the vicinity of the Republic of Cyprus. Additional instances of similar interference were reported in October 2018 near Jeddah Port, Saudi Arabia. This interference results in the loss of, or altering of, GPS signals; affecting bridge navigation, GPS-based timing and communications equipment. 17 November: Six Greenpeace activists boarded tanker Stolt Tenacity in Gulf of Cadiz Greenpeace reportedly targeted the vessel as a sign of protest against rainforest destruction in Indonesia; as the ship was carrying palm oil products from Wilmar International. According to Greenpeace, Wilmar is a major supplier to global snack food giant Mondelez; one of the world’s largest purchasers of palm oil. The captain of the vessel detained the borders.Persian Gulf and India
17 November: Boarding at Kakinada Anchorage in India. Unnoticed, robbers boarded an anchored product tanker, stole ship’s stores and escaped. The theft was noticed during routine rounds. Port control and agents were informed. 18 November: Iranian Navy vows to maintain its presence on the high seas. An Iranian Navy commander has vowed that Iran’s navy is vital to secure the country’s interests despite threats from the US and a recent incident with UK destroyer HMS Diamond. He also insisted that the country’s “strong” navy would maintain its presence on the high seas so that other countries will not “take advantage”. There was also talk of the Iranian navy operating in the Atlantic “whenever necessary”.Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 46-47 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. This week’s Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Suicide Explosion, Airport Road, Kabul
TRAVEL ADVICE
SITUATION SUMMARY At least 55 people have been killed and 80 wounded following the detonation of a suicide bomb at a wedding hall in Kabul. The attack occurred at the Uranus Wedding Hall on Airport Road (Police District 15) at approximately 18.15 (local time). The terrorist evaded security before entering the main building and detonating the explosive device on the first floor. Local reports indicate that Sufi Muslims had gathered in wedding hall to commemorate Mawlid al-Nabi al-Sharif, the birthday of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad. Attacks targeting religious minorities have increased over the last 12 months as the Islamic State (IS) seek to create and exploit sectarian rifts in Afghanistan. On 15 August, an IS bomber detonated their explosives at a private education centre in a Shia neighbourhood in west Kabul, killing 48 people, including several prominent Shia journalists. On August 3, 40 people were killed in a complex attack on Shia worshippers at a Mosque in Gardez city (Paktia province). While no group has yet claimed responsibility for today’s bombinh, it follows a continued trend of targeted attacks against minority groups in Afghanistan. Travellers currently in Kabul should minimise all movements near Hamid Karzai International Airport until the situation stabilises.
Solace Global remains available to provide the full range of Travel Risk Management services to clients throughout Afghanistan. Solace Global is also able to provide comprehensive crisis management, in-country journey management, tracking, response, and evacuation services. For further details please contact +44 (0)1202 308 810 or email risk@localhost Download the latest travel advisory here. Afghanistan – Travel Advisory
- Avoid the vicinity Uranus Wedding Hall on Airport Road until the blast site has been cleared by authorities. If you are currently in the area, minimise movement until the situation stabilises and comply with all security force directives
- Road closures are expected in the vicinity of the attack on Airport Road. Liaise with your security provider regarding the feasibility of essential road movement near the airport. If travelling to Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) use the south-north route from Wazir Akbar Khan via Airport Road
- Monitor Solace Global Alerts for further updates.
SITUATION SUMMARY At least 55 people have been killed and 80 wounded following the detonation of a suicide bomb at a wedding hall in Kabul. The attack occurred at the Uranus Wedding Hall on Airport Road (Police District 15) at approximately 18.15 (local time). The terrorist evaded security before entering the main building and detonating the explosive device on the first floor. Local reports indicate that Sufi Muslims had gathered in wedding hall to commemorate Mawlid al-Nabi al-Sharif, the birthday of the Islamic Prophet Muhammad. Attacks targeting religious minorities have increased over the last 12 months as the Islamic State (IS) seek to create and exploit sectarian rifts in Afghanistan. On 15 August, an IS bomber detonated their explosives at a private education centre in a Shia neighbourhood in west Kabul, killing 48 people, including several prominent Shia journalists. On August 3, 40 people were killed in a complex attack on Shia worshippers at a Mosque in Gardez city (Paktia province). While no group has yet claimed responsibility for today’s bombinh, it follows a continued trend of targeted attacks against minority groups in Afghanistan. Travellers currently in Kabul should minimise all movements near Hamid Karzai International Airport until the situation stabilises.
Solace Global remains available to provide the full range of Travel Risk Management services to clients throughout Afghanistan. Solace Global is also able to provide comprehensive crisis management, in-country journey management, tracking, response, and evacuation services. For further details please contact +44 (0)1202 308 810 or email risk@localhost Download the latest travel advisory here. Afghanistan – Travel Advisory
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46
Headlines From This Week
- United States: Wildfires ongoing in California as latest death toll hits record numbers – Fifty-six people have been killed and 130 people are unaccounted for in the deadliest wildfire ever recorded in California state. The blaze, which started as a result of a campfire, spread rapidly towards urban centres in northern California fuelled by the critically dry vegetation and strong winds. Over 52,000 people have been evacuated from Paradise, Magalia, Concow, Butte Creek Canyon and Butte Valley and rest centres have been established outside the fire zone. More than 9,000 firefighters have been deployed to help tackle the blaze and thousands in the affected area remain without power. Travellers should avoid all areas affected by the wildfire, especially where mandatory evacuation orders are in place. Liaise with local contacts to determine the feasibility of routes and overland journeys. Follow all directives issued by the authorities.
- Mozambique: Latest attack highlights continued militant threat in Cabo Delgado – In the early hours of 15 November, militants in Cabo Delgado province attacked Nagalue village, Macomia district killing one person and destroying homes and shops. Residents fled into the surrounding areas upon hearing the attack. Armed groups have been launching small-scale attacks in Cabo Delgado since October 2017, targeting police stations, shops and houses in the province leading to 90 death of mostly civilians. Unlike terror incidents, the armed group are yet to claim responsibility for the attacks or make any demands. While most of the militants are rumoured to be of Muslim faith, there is a limited religious connection to the attacks, suggesting they may be linked to the worsening socio-economic situation in the region. Foreign visitors planning on travel to Cabo Delgado should limit movements to daylight hours only and ensure secure journey management is in place for the duration of their travel.
- Somalia: Complex attack in capital Mogadishu underscores continued capability of terrorist groups to attack high profile targets – Fifty people were killed and over 100 injured in a complex, multi-target attack in the Hodan district of the capital. Three vehicle-based explosive devices detonated outside three main buildings on the busy KM4 roundabout near the first checkpoint for Mogadishu International Airport (MIA). One of the buildings targeted was the Sahafi Hotel and militants attempted to storm the building after the blasts. Al Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack which is the first major attack on the capital for several months. Somalia remains a severe risk travel environment and all travel should be supported by an accredited security provider with 24-hour response capability. Accommodation should be booked inside the secure MIA compound.
- Israel, Palestinian Territories: Ceasefire between Hamas and Israeli Government ends three-day escalation in violence in southern Israel and Hamas controlled Gaza – Tensions between the two groups escalated after Israel launched a military operation in the Gaza strip leading to the first direct ground confrontation between the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and Hamas since Operation Protection Edge in 2014. One Israeli soldier and seven Palestinians were killed in the raid and Israeli air defence was needed to support the evacuation of the IDF unit. In response to the incursion, Hamas launched a rocket that destroyed a military bus and injured a soldier. Israel retaliated by targeting and destroying an alleged munitions storage site, an intelligence base and television station. Hamas subsequently launched 400 missiles at Israel over the next 48 hours and the IDF targeting more than 100 sites in Gaza. The ceasefire, which has brought an end to the current hostilities, has been met with condemnation by the Israeli parliament and the situation should be monitored by all travellers going to southern Israel in the coming months.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Bahrain: National assembly elections to be held 24 November, amidst rising tensions between Shia and Sunni communities – In June 2018, legislation approved by King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa banned most opposition parties from running in November election. Al-Wefaq, the main opposition party, subsequently called for all Shia aligned political parties to boycott of the elections. On 4 November, Bahrain sentenced three prominent Al-Wefaq politicians to life imprisonment on charges of spying including their secretary general, Sheikh Ali Salman. Tensions between the ruling powers in Bahrain and Shia opposition groups has been evident since 2011, when Shia communities participated in widespread anti-government protests. Since 2011, protests have been held weekly in smaller Shia villages, outside the capital Manama. While the Bahrain government will try and suppress political protests during the election period, travellers should anticipate protests in areas close to Manama. Low-level Shia militant attacks cannot be ruled out and travellers should minimise their time spent near potential targets.
- Bangladesh: Election date deferred until 30 December, anticipate unrest in coming weeks as political campaigning begins Opposition parties had requested a longer deferral from the Bangladesh Election Committee (BEC), in order to prepare for the upcoming elections. The main opposition group, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted parliamentary elections in 2014 due to perceived corruption and fraud by the ruling Awami League resulting in 154 of the 300 parliamentary being uncontested. The perceived injustice and lack of free and fair elections led to countrywide protests and widespread violence. The military were subsequently deployed, and curfews were imposed in several neighbourhoods. Fears that the 2018 election would result in a major deterioration of the security environment have been allayed by the involvement of the main opposition groups; however, existing tensions are likely to lead to major unrest in urban centres. On 14 November 32 people were injured when the BNP and security forces clashed in Dhaka as supporters accompanied a BNP candidate to pick up their election nomination papers. Travellers should anticipate an uptick in political demonstrations and rallies in the coming weeks as parties start campaigning. Travellers should further, take all precautions necessary to avoid all such gatherings.
- Cameroon: Violence to continue in Northwest and Southwest regions – Clashes between the Cameroon military and Anglophone separatists have escalated since the re-election of Paul Biya in October, causing a further deterioration in the security environment. Separatist announced a boycott prior to the 7 October polls, leading to historically low voter turnout, with many residents fearful of repercussions if they tried to vote. Violence has subsequently escalated since Paul Biya’s re-election was announced, with clashes between the military and insurgents being reported daily and schools and government-run institutions being targeted by insurgents. The separatist movement gathered pace last year when the Cameroon military forcefully repressed peaceful protests calling for the declaration of an independent Anglophone state. In response the Cameroon military used forceful measures to end the unrest, killing protesters and arresting the main leaders of the separatist movement. Over the last 12 months, the situation has escalated dramatically with over 300 separate security incidents being reported since January. With no current dialogue between the insurgents and the government, the crisis, and increasing insecurity, will likely continue in the medium to long-term. The Northwest region remains under curfew and road travel is only possible between 06.00 and 18.00 (local time). Travel to the region should be for essential purposed only and supported by an accredited security with 24-hour response capability.
Significant Dates and Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for violence |
| 18 Nov | Guinea Bissau | Legislative elections | POSTPONED |
| 18 Nov | Latvia | Independence Day | Insignificant |
| 18 Nov | Morocco | Independence Day | Insignificant |
| 18 Nov | Oman | National Day (2-day holiday) | Insignificant |
| 21, 23 Nov | Thailand | Lantern Festival (disruption at Chang Mai, reconfirm flights) | Insignificant |
| 22 Nov | Lebanon | Independence Day | Low |
| 24 Nov | Bahrain | Parliamentary elections | Moderate |
| 24 Nov | Australia | State elections | Insignificant |
| 25 Nov | Mali | Legislative elections | High |
| 25 Nov | Bosnia | Republic Day | Low |
| 25 Nov | Suriname | Independence Day | Low |
| 28 Nov | Albania | Independence Day | Low |
| 28 Nov | Mauritania | Independence Day | Low |
| Nov (exp) | Chad | Legislative elections (date not announced) | High |
| 1 Dec | Central African Rep. | National Day | Moderate |
| 2 Dec | Laos | National Day | Low |
| 2 Dec | UAE | National Day – Formation of the federation of the seven emirates | Insignificant |
| 3 Dec | Poland | Start of the COP24 environmental summit in Katowice, | Insignificant |
Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. The Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45
Headlines From This Week
- Untied States: California: Mass Shooting in Bar – Twelve people were killed, and multiple injuries reported, after a gunman opened fire at 23.20 in a crowded bar on 7 November. The Borderline Bar and Grill was hosting a live music event for students when the gunman forced his way into the bar and threw a smoke grenade before opening fire on the crowd. The perpetrator was killed after security forces entered and secured the building. No motive for the attack has been identified and investigations are ongoing. There have been 307 mass shootings in the US since 1 January. The attack highlights a continued threat posed by mass shootings throughout the US and travellers should remain vigilant when in public areas.
- France: Arrest of six people in connection with far-right terrorist plot – French security forces apprehended six people over an alleged plot to attack French President Emmanuel Macron. According to local reports the suspects, aged between 20 and 60, were all members of a far-right movement and one of the suspects was found in possession of a firearm when he was arrested. The recent arrests, while indicating the capability of the intelligence services to identify and disrupt such plots, highlight an uptick in right-wing extremism across Europe that is likely to persist in the medium to long term.
- Yemen: Hodeidah: Fighting intensifies near port city – The Saudi-led coalition have started a renewed offensive against the vital port city, launching over 100 airstrikes on the eastern part of Hodeidah in the last 72 hours and cutting off all access routes. The increase in hostilities comes amidst calls from international governments to negotiate a ceasefire due to increasing civilian casualties. UN-sponsored peace talks are scheduled to take place in Sweden at the end of November and the recent Saudi-led offensive is believed to be a tactic to secure as much ground as possible prior to any cease fire being implemented. The port has been under blockade by the Saudi-led coalition since 2015, a decision that has been blamed for the current humanitarian crisis affecting 14 million people in Yemen. Despite the blockade, over 70 percent of food and medical supplies for Houthi held areas of Yemen come through Hodeidah.
- Sahel Region: Burkina Faso; Chad; Niger; Mauritania, Mali: Islamist militants intensify attacks against security forces – There has been an escalation in attacks being committed by Islamist groups against security forces in the Sahel region. On 8 November, a Police Station was attacked by militants in Soum province (Sahel region) and two days earlier two soldiers were killed in the same province of Burkina Faso following the detonation of an IED near a military convoy. On 3 November Nigerien military units engaged with Islamist militants in Tillaberi region, along the border with Mali and Burkina Faso, destroying several training camps associated with Al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). On 27 October, Islamist militants launched two attacks on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in Tombouctou and Mopti regions. Militants launched a complex attack on the MINUSMA military base in Ber, killing two peacekeepers. A further attack targeted a MINUSMA convoy with an IED, injuring two peacekeepers. The recent escalation in violence highlights a continued deterioration in the security environment and travellers should seek professional security advice prior to travel to any of the border regions.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Pape New Guinea (PNG): APEC Economic Leaders Meeting (AELM) to cause travel disruption in Port Moresby from 12 – 18 November – The Summit brings national delegates from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation together and is the final event of PNGs APEC hosting year. The main two event venues include the International Convention centre and APEC Haus and travellers in country should anticipate severe disruption around both the venues. Local authorities have drafted in additional police resources in an effort to bolster security. Road closures should be expected, especially when dignitaries are moving between venues and Jacksons International Airport. The PNG government has been widely criticised amongst opposition and religious leaders in the country due to the high levels of spending on the event. PNG remains one of the poorest countries in the region and the summit is likely to result in protests over both, internal socio-economic issues and global issues affecting PNG, such as climate change. Such protests are expected to be localised and quickly contained. Nevertheless, as a precaution, all such protests should be avoided.
- Myanmar / Bangladesh: Repatriation of Rohingya refugees set to begin – The governments of Bangladesh and Myanmar have agreed to begin the repatriation of 750,000 Rohingya refugees who fled western Rakhine state in 2017 following widescale ethnic violence directed towards Muslim communities. For the last year the Rohingya’s have been living in camps established in south-eastern Bangladesh near the coastal town of Cox’s Bazar. The presence of refugees in the region has added considerable strain to the Bangladesh economy and lead to tensions between local communities and refugee communities, over competition for scarce natural resources. The repatriation agreement has been met by widespread condemnation from international groups, including the UN, who state that the Rohingya’s are at high risk of persecution if they return. The UN’s High Commission for Refugees also added that Rakhine state was not yet in a conducive state for returns. The announcement has led to isolated protests in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh with one refugee attempting to commit suicide after being told that he would be involuntarily repatriated. Any forced repatriation is likely to be met by strong resistance by Rohingya communities and widespread unrest and civil disobedience remains likely in the coming weeks.
- France: Travel disruption expected during protests near Place de la Republique, Paris, on 11 November – French civil action groups have called for a widespread protest following President Macron’s decision to invite US President Donald Trump as honoured guest to the 100th anniversary commemorative event celebrating Armistice Day, the end of World War I. Protesters will gather at 14.00 on 11 November in Republic Square. The event is likely to be well attended and result in widespread traffic disruption in the local area. Travellers should plan routes bypassing the event and anticipate heightened security in the local area.
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44
Headlines From This Week
- One killed and 20 injured after a suicide bomber detonated explosive device in Tunisia’s capital Tunis on 29 October – The explosion occurred just before 14:00 (local time) in the centrally located Avenue Habib Bourguiba, not far from the ministry of interior and the French Embassy. The attack killed the perpetrator, wounding 20 bystanders including 15 members of the security forces, who appear to have been the intended target. The targeted bombing is the first major terror attack in Tunisia since 2015 when a series of attacks led to the government imposing a state of emergency which remains in place. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. The 30-year-old female bomber came from a small village outside the coastal city Mahdia (Mahdia governorate). At present, there is no known connection to terrorist organisations although security forces have speculated that family members could be associated with the Islamic State.
- Demonstrations result in violent confrontation between protesters and security forces in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja – Protests erupted on 29 and 30 October in Abuja over the continued imprisonment of Ibrahim Zakzaky, leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN). Shia groups who had gathered to celebrate the Muslim holy day, Arbaeen, on 30 October attempted to march on the city centre but were stopped by Nigerian Security forces. The marchers responded by throwing rocks at the police who subsequently used tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse the gathering. IMN supporters have vowed to continue their campaign calling for the release of Zakzary, who has been detained since December 2015. Further protests remain possible in the coming days and will likely lead to clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Travellers should leave at the first sign that protesters or security forces are gathering. Further travel disruption is likely as protesters seek to blockade main roads.
- The Taliban claim 407 attacks over parliamentary and district elections – The largest attack occurred when a suicide bomber detonated their explosives outside a polling centre in Kabul, killing 15 people. There were numerous reports of militants blocking roads near polling centres across the country and polling centres refusing to open over security fears on 7 October, leading to frustration amongst voters. There have been 193 separate security incidents recorded by independent groups highlighting the capability of militants to disrupt the political process. Following the conclusion of voting electoral commission centres have been targeted by suicide bombers in Jalalabad and Kabul in the last week leading to multiple fatalities. Tensions are likely to remain high until the release of the vote around 20 November with further attacks targeting candidates, the electoral commission and vote counting centres likely.
- Increasing socio-economic issues in Honduras sparks migrant caravan heading to US – Following a social media campaign, several hundred low-income Hondurans who departed from San Pedro grew to 5,000 as they crossed the border to Guatemala on 12 October. The caravan reached the Mexican border by 19 October where they encountered and clashed with Mexican security forces, leading to the death of one migrant. The group is expected to grow as the move towards the US border, isolated clashes between security forces and migrants remain likely.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Opposition groups in Brazil have called for mass protests following the election of far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro – The Brazil presidential second-round runoff saw controversial right-wing candidate Bolsonaro claim 55 percent of the vote, successfully defeating the left-wing contender Fernando Haddad. Bolsonaro indicated throughout his campaign the desire to implement aggressive economic changes through privatisations, deregulation and reduced public spending which are likely to improve investor confidence in Brazil; however, the president-elect remains a controversial figure and his successful candidacy has already provoked country-wide protests on 30 October. Bolsonaro has promised to relax gun control, while making abortion illegal and any future campaigns to implement such measures is likely to lead to further country-wide civil unrest.
- Political turmoil shows no sign of abating in Sri Lanka – The political unrest caused by the sacking of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and decision to replace him with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa continues to impact the South Asian country. On 1 November, it appeared that politicians were to be allowed to return to the suspended parliament. However, it has now been communicated by associates of Rajapaksa that parliament will stay shut until 16 November. The decision is a blow for Wickremesinghe, who maintains that he holds a majority in parliament and has been calling for a vote among MPs. There are continued fears that the continued tensions will result in further protest action which has the potential for violence.
- Protests spread across Pakistan following acquittal of Christian woman imprisoned on blasphemy charges – Widespread protests have broken out in Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi, leading to the erection of roadblocks on several major roads and severe travel disruption. Hard-line Islamist group Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP), who have been at the forefront of the unrest, have called for nationwide strikes on 2 November following failed talks with the Pakistan government. In response, the government have shut down mobile services in Islamabad and several other provinces. Pakistan’s new prime minister, Imran Khan, threatened a forceful response if protesters did not disperse highlighting the potential for clashes between protesters and security forces. Travellers in Pakistan should minimise movements outside high-security areas in the coming days as unrest is likely to continue. Consider deferring business travel to Pakistan until after 5 November.
- Tanzanian authorities ask public to name people suspected of being gay – Paul Makonda, regional commissioner for Dar es Salaam, called on the public to report on any person they knew or suspected of being gay. According to local reports a 17-member special committee has been established to investigate the claims. The team have received over 5,500 messages from the public and identified over 100 individuals. LGBT activists and international human rights groups have condemned the move by the Tanzanian government – stating that thousands of Tanzanians are now living in fear. Tanzania, a country where it is illegal to be homosexual, has a history of violent attacks against the LGBT community, committed by both the public and security forces. Travel risk management plans should be updated to included recent developments and additional precautions should be considered by all travellers.