Maritime Incidents in weeks 11 and 12

Americas 10 March: Attempted robbery in Macapa, Brazil Two robbers armed with knives boarded an anchored bulk carrier using a rope with a hook in Macapa Anchorage, Brazil. The duty AB on routine rounds spotted the robbers and immediately informed the OOW, who raised the alarm. PA announcement was made and all crew mustered. Seeing the alerted crew, the robbers escaped without stealing anything. The incident was reported to the Port Authorities.

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Gulf of Guinea 8 March: Vessel approached near Brass, Nigeria Underway tanker approached by two skiffs with 4 POB at 1502 UTC around 35nm SSE of Brass, Nigeria. One skiff closed to within 2 cables. Vessel conducted evasive manoeuvres resulting in skiffs moving away. 9 March: additional attack near Brass; possibly same pirates from an earlier attack Underway OSV attacked by two speedboats at 1550 UTC approximately 21nm SSE of Brass, Nigeria. Speedboats w/ 6 armed POB in each fired upon escorting security vessel. Unconfirmed reports stated several pirates and one security personnel killed. Pirates in the second speedboat reportedly boarded OSV. Vessel and crew are safe at Bonny Anchorage.

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Kidnapping in the Gulf of Guinea 9 March: Vessel and escort attacked near Brass, Nigeria Pirates armed with machine guns in two speedboats approached an underway offshore support vessel at 1115 UTC around 32nm SE of Brass. The captain immediately notified the naval escort security boat which manoeuvred to engage the attackers. One speed boat closed in from the port side of the vessel and crossed the bow, while the other speed boat exchanged fire with the security boat. The alarm raised, the crew also proceeded to the engine room and all power was shut down. The pirates boarded the vessel with the aid of an elongated ladder. They broke into the accommodation, vandalised the cabins and took crew belongings and vessel properties. The pirates then proceeded to the engine room, kidnapped five men and escaped. The remaining crew sailed the OSV under escort to a safe anchorage. One Nigerian Navy armed guard was reported killed in the exchange of fire between the naval security boat and the pirates.

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Indian Ocean & HRA 20 March: Well known Somali pirate killed in Mugug region A well known Somali pirate has reportedly been killed in Golfula district, Mudug region. Ahmed Mohamud (50) used to be a high profile leader in Somali piracy and, according to sources, was assassinated two days ago after leaving Hobyo city heading for the city of Galkayo. According to eyewitnesses, Mohamud was abducted by unknown gunmen prior to his assassination. It is believed that the former pirate was in the area trying to recruit a new generation of pirates in the region.

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A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week

Changes to the High Risk Area in the Indian Ocean announced; measure to come into effect 1 May 2019 (map to the right) The Round Table of international shipping associations, as well as the OCIMF, who represent the global shipping and oil industry have announced that the geographic boundaries of the ‘High Risk Area’ (HRA) for piracy in the Indian Ocean will be reduced starting from 1 May. Additionally, there will be new advice issued to merchant ship operators. The reduction of the HRA reflects the ongoing containment of the threat from pirate attacks in the region. Despite the reduction, the shipping associations have urged that vigilance and adherence to the 5th edition of the best management practice to deter piracy (BMP5) remains vital to the long term success in the region. The threat of pirate attack off the coast of Somalia, as well as terrorist inspired piracy in the Gulf of Aden, remain possible. According to officials, the reduction in the HRA has been made whilst taking into account pirate intent, the capability of the navies operating in the region and crucially the merchant shipping industry. Indeed, the decision was only made after extensive consultations with military forces in the region, including Combined Maritime Forces, EUNAVFOR and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which continue to provide vital advice and protection to shipping. This is the second reduction, after the one to the current limits in 2015, and does not change the advice for vessels travelling through the Gulf of Aden or to/from the Red Sea. The Voluntary Reporting Area (VRA). Additionally, Ships entering the VRA will still be encouraged to register with the Maritime Security Centre for the Horn of Africa (MSCHOA) and report to the United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO). Despite the reduction, the threat of pirate attacks do continue and shipping companies should continue to maintain full compliance with BMP5. Additionally, the industry associations will adjust the HRA again if the situation warrants it. www.Oceanuslive.org Somali troops have withdrawn from villages on outskirts of Mogadishu  Numerous Somali troops have withdrawn from their posts in Mahadaay, Jowar and other villages over unpaid salaries and lack of rations. The withdrawals have allowed Al Shabaab militants to capture the vacated bases and villages; causing them to move within closer range of the capital. Should the withdrawals continue, the outskirt areas of Mogadishu may come into range of mortar fire. This includes the airport and the UN compound. These gains by militants have been coupled with the African Union’s UN mission withdrawing or looking to withdraw troops from the country. This has left the Somali military the sole line of defence in some areas. Should the lack of pay and rations continue; then the depleted African Union troops may be targeted by Al Shabaab attacks; testing strength and defences in the Mogadishu area. All non-essential foreign staff will likely be evacuated in response to any further deterioration of the security environment. However, no official sources are reporting this at this time. Should Mogadishu come under siege, or direct attack, the maritime threat in the region will rise significantly: Al Shabaab disruptive actions will impact international trade and fishermen whose livelihoods have been destroyed will likely turn to piracy. Iranian naval forces are arresting Chinese fishing poachers The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Naval Command have issued an official statement on Chinese fishing vessels who have been violating the terms of the 2011 fisheries agreement between Tehran and Beijing. According to the statement, the Chinese vessels have been “poaching” in the waters of Southern Iran, including in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Several Chinese fishing vessels have reportedly been detained as a result of the poaching and Iran is now considering a ban on foreign vessels in Iranian waters. Along with fishing vessels, a reefer, possibly the KOOSHA 3, was detained with holds full of frozen fish allegedly collected from Chinese fishing vessels.

    Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Ethiopian Airlines 737 crashes en route to Nairobi; 737 MAX aircraft grounded globally as a result of the crash An Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 has crashed whilst en route to Nairobi, Kenya. The location of the crash is, as yet, unconfirmed. It is likely that hundreds of lives have been lost. An investigation and recovery effort are underway. As a result of the incident, which is the second for the new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, all 737 MAX aircraft have now been ground indefinitely until the cause for the accidents is found. The groundings do not affect older 737 and the impact on airlines has been limited. It is likely the aircraft will be grounded at least until the cause of the Ethiopian Airlines crash is determined. ADIVCE: The impact of the groundings of such a new aircraft have been limited. Most airlines only have a handful of the aircraft type, this has meant that flight schedules have been unaltered. Travellers are advised to contact their airline for advice regarding their itinerary.

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New Zealand: Christchurch Terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch on 15 March At around 13:40 local time at least three shooters entered two mosques in Christchurch New Zealand. As a result of the attacks, at least 49 people are said to have been killed. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has stated that the attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, can only be described as a terrorist attack. She has also stated that it appears that there was a high degree of planning by the perpetrators. To read more, see our latest travel advisory

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Algeria: Nationwide Protest continue as president states he will not stand for fifth term; but delays election Protests are continuing in Algeria despite President Abdelaziz Bouteflika stating he will not run for a fifth term in office. The protesters are demanding that the president resigns from office immediately and that the elections are held as planned in April. To read more, see our latest travel advisory

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Venezuela: Nationwide Large protests in Caracas as blackout continues Nationwide blackouts continue after power was restored to parts of Caracas and other areas around the country. According to media reports, traffic lights are functioning in some areas the capital, but the metro system remains closed. Some areas have been without electricity for over 48 hours and the blackout is affecting healthcare facilities. Internet monitoring organisations also reported that 96 percent of the country is without access to mobile telecommunication networks after the most recent power outage. On the 9 March rival protests were held in different parts of Caracas to support Maduro or Guaido who both claim the Presidency. There were a number of scuffles with police and several injured. Mr Guaido, who leads the opposition controlled National Assembly, has been recognised as interim president by more than 50 countries. However, Mr Maduro retains the support of the military and close allies including Russia and China. The continuing blackout is only heightening tensions. ADVICE: Individuals in Venezuela are advised to monitor the political situation and to avoid all public demonstrations due to the risk of violence and arrest. Due to the tense political situation, local security officials have enhanced measures to enforce the rule of law. It is recommended to adhere to instructions, such as curfews and identity checks, and avoid open criticism of the current government or its officials. Due to the ongoing risk of instability, it is advised to leave the country as soon as possible.

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United Kingdom: Nationwide The IRA has claimed responsibility for the recent parcel bombs in London and Glasgow A group, calling itself the IRA, has claimed responsibility for the parcel bombs sent to London transport hubs and the University of Glasgow last week. A spokesperson from the Metropolitan Police announced that the group has claimed to have sent five devices, of which only four have been detected. Police investigations into the parcel bombs are ongoing. ADVICE: Further suspicious items are possible in the coming days and weeks. Travellers are advised that if in the vicinity of the suspicious item, not to touch or inspect it, report the item to a member of staff, security personnel, or the authorities, informing them of the exact location of the device. Adhere to all police instructions.

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United Kingdom: Westminster British government votes to delay Brexit Members of the UK House of Commons have rejected an altered Brexit withdrawal agreement that had been brought before them by Prime Minister Theresa May by a margin of 149 votes. It was judged that the Prime Minister had failed to make sufficient changes to the withdrawal agreement that was rejected in January 2019. The vote was followed by a series of votes, including whether to pursue a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit. Both of which were rejected. As such Britain now must wait to see if the EU accepts the delay. ADVICE: Protests are likely in the coming weeks, both if Britain is granted a delay and if the country is forced to leave without a deal. It remains highly likely that political change will occur with a general election, second referendum or continued stalemate all equally possible.

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Brazil: Sao Paulo School shooting resulted in eight deaths in Suzano, Sao Paulo, on 13 March Two former pupils are understood to have carried out a school shooting in Suzano, near Sao Paulo, on Wednesday 13 March. The two males reportedly fired indiscriminately at students and teachers. Military police and emergency services attended the scene, the perpetrators are reported to have committed suicide before being apprehended. In total, five pupils, a school administrator and a teacher were killed before the two perpetrators killed themselves. The two attackers had been close friends since childhood and used to spend a lot of time together playing video games and were often seen at a local gaming arcade. Earlier in the day, the two attackers had shot dead the younger one’s uncle. A state official said the younger gunman “had never shown any problems” at school; however, it is believed that he, and possibly the older attacker, had been bullied at the school. ADVICE: Crime rates and gang related crime is high in Brazil; however, incidents of this nature are uncommon. Travellers are advised to be aware of their surroundings and ensure they adhere,

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Israel: Tel Aviv Multiple long-range rockets launched at Tel Aviv Local reports suggest at least two long-range rockets have been fired at the Tel Aviv metropolitan area from Gaza. Warning sirens were activated prior to the attack, in which no casualties or damage has been reported. One of the missiles was reportedly destroyed by Tel Aviv’s ‘Iron Dome’ defence system, the other landed in the Mediterranean Sea. This is the first attack of this kind since 2014, Hamas has denied responsibility. Israel has carried out air strikes in the port west area of Khan Younis in response to the rocket attacks. Up to 100 retaliatory attacks have been launched across Gaza, targeting Hamas sites and Islamic Jihad. ADVICE: Travellers in Tel Aviv should ensure they are familiar with what actions to take in the event warning sirens are activated. Travellers should seek shelter and remain there for at least ten minutes upon hearing sirens.

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India: Nationwide Holi Festival 20-21 March The celebration of the Holi festival will be held across India on 20-21 March, attracting visitors worldwide for its colourful celebratory powders and the nationwide celebrations. Generally, the scale of the event and the number of participants, it is important for visitors to pay attention to crowd movements, which have caused incidents before. Crimes such as pickpocketing are also fairly common during the festival. However, the biggest risks are faced by female participants to the festival, as the celebration is often used as an excuse for harassment, which reportedly skyrockets during the days of the festival, from groping to rape and to the point where it has been reported that young women were targeted by “semen-filled balloons”. Men are also known to consume a cannabis-derived liquid and harassing women, especially in big groups. ADVICE: Female travellers should exercise extreme caution if celebrating the festival, either in Delhi or elsewhere, and avoid going to the celebrations alone. It is advised for foreigners to celebrate in groups, exercise vigilance and keep an eye on their belonging. If approached by groups of intoxicated individuals, travellers should avoid confrontation and seek the assistance of local law enforcement. Women should avoid larger gatherings and stick to familiar surroundings, as well as respect avoid leaving their hotel after dark.

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United States: Washington DC Trump – Bolsonaro Summit 17-20 March Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Washington DC early next week, in it first bilateral summit with the United States since taking office since 1 January 2019. Brazil and the US being the biggest economies in the Americas and both Presidents having run on a populist and conservative platform, there is a great curiosity in whether the summit will result in a new entente between the two countries, which could greatly impact the region. Among the most pressing topics to be discussed are certainly the Venezuela crisis – both nations recognised Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela – , trade and the role that Washington is going to play in the region moving ahead. To read more please see https://www.solaceglobal.com//wp-content/uploads/2019/03/20190308-Global-Security-Forecast-Week-11.pd

Algeria: Nationwide Anti-government protests underway nationwide Demonstrations against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement to run for a fifth term in office have organised nationwide. Protests have been out on the streets of Algiers, centred mainly outside the Universities of Bejaia and Bouira. Large crowds and limited scenes of unrest and even clashes were also reported in Oran, Constantine, Setif, Tizi Ouzou, and Bouira. As a result of the widespread protests, there has been significant disruptions to travel and services. In Algiers, public transportation services were suspended and the Algiers Metro was closed. Demonstrations in Algeria are banned. It has been reported that on 1 March, at least 100 people were wounded in clashes between protesters and police across the country. There is a heightened security presence across the country, particularly surrounding demonstrations. The country’s military has also condemned the unrest and called for a halt to the protests. ADVICE: Demonstrations in Algeria are banned; anticipate a heightened security presence near demonstration sites. Current protests are known to turn violent with little notice; further clashes between protesters and police cannot be ruled out. Travellers are advised to continue to monitor the political situation. Businesses and travellers should now start looking ahead and considering altering travel arrangements in the build-up to the election should unrest continue.

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South Korea: Nationwide North Korea has condemned the joint US – South Korea military drills in the region On Thursday, 7 March, North Korea denounced the ongoing joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington as an “all out challenge” to moves towards peace on the Korean peninsula. The US and South Korea had agreed on Sunday to replace two major war games that take place every spring, known as the “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills”, with a shorter “Dong Maeng” or “Alliance” exercise. The joint drills commenced this week and involve tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers and a large number of the 30,000 US troops posted in South Korea. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while the likelihood of a conflict remains remote, international incidents or accidental clashes between the opposing militaries may result in an increase in tensions.

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Guinea-Bissau: Nationwide Final stages of election campaigns underway ahead of vote on 10 March Guinea-Bissau is set to hold legislative elections on 10 March, with the Presidential vote predicted to follow shortly after. As such, election campaigns have begun in the country dubbed as Africa’s first “narco” state. The upcoming elections are already the subject of international scrutiny, having been postponed from the original date of 18 November 2018 – due to two suspensions to voter registration, following allegations of irregularities. As such, ambassadors from the UN Security Council have met with the incumbent President José Mário Vaz, along with opposition party leaders and the country’s electoral commission, in an effort to promote free and fair elections. The former Portuguese colony has been in political crisis since August 2015, when President Vaz sacked his then Prime Minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, on corruption charges. This resulted in the dissolution of the government and caused bitter divisions within the main PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde) to which they both belong. Political protests and associated violence have been present ever since, adding to the country’s continuing instability. In October 2018, thousands of people protested in the nation’s capital to denounce a lack of transparency and irregularities surrounding voter registration. October 2018 also saw a nationwide teacher strike paralyse the education sector – in turn triggering counter-demonstrations and protests. It is also important to note that Guinea- Bissau has witnessed nine coups, or attempted coups, since 1980. ADVICE: Due to the threat of political violence surrounding elections in Guinea-Bissau, travellers are advised to delay all non-essential travel until the elections have passed. If travel is business critical, travellers are advised to consider implementing precautionary security measures. Travellers should also avoid all protests and public gatherings, although they may initially seem peaceful there is the potential for them to turn violent.

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To read more please download the report: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 10

For International Women’s Day, Solace Global wanted to celebrate the fact that female business travellers are becoming more and more frequent. In the US, women now account for nearly 40 percent of business travellers. This number is reflected in the UK and is only going to grow in the coming years. Indeed, we are seeing our own clients having more and more women conducting business trips. These trips vary from short journeys to Europe and cities in the US to more complex journeys in Africa or to Asia. This is only good for businesses globally!

Given the large numbers of female travellers across the globe, it is important that companies ensure that they take into account the unique threats that female travellers can face in certain countries. As such, while female and male preferences and habits and are not that dissimilar when it comes to business travel, the type of threats they can face can have a significant impact on the enjoyment, and the success, of the business trip; not to mention the safety of the individual.

There is no escaping that there will always be an element of risk when travelling regardless of who the traveller is; male or female. However, as long as a person and their company are aware of the risks that they may face, there is no reason that anyone should not conduct an enjoyable and safe trip.

This is important because the last thing travellers want to do while on a trip is to be constantly worrying and making continued threat assessments about their surroundings while doing what she actually came to do: meet clients, make a presentation or close an important deal.

There are a number of things that both travellers and company risk managers can do to ensure that female business travellers can conduct their business safely and successfully. These include preparation before and actions during their journeys.

• In the majority of cases, common sense precautions, such as avoiding travelling alone after dark in unfamiliar places and watching your drink at the bar, will keep you safe.
• Do not be too trusting, do not accept food or drinks from strangers or be accepting of lifts.
• If the hotel receptionist verbally announces your room number or puts you in an inappropriate location, such as a ground floor room or at the end of a dark corridor, feel free to ask for an alternative room.
• Ensure your hotel has double-locking doors and that both work before unpacking.
• Consider carrying doorstop, or a device such as a DoorJammer, to provide an extra security for your room.
• Research your destination before you travel, be aware of the safer areas, the places to avoid and any other things to look out for.
• Be aware of the cultural sensitivities in the country you are visiting. For example, reporting sexual assault in the United Arab Emirate can result in the victim being detained and even charged.
• Cultural sensitivities can extend to how you dress, whether or not you should initiate handshakes and even the length of eye contact.
• Ensure that someone knows where you are travelling to; be this friends, family or work colleagues. Additionally, ensure that you check in regularly with this person.
• Certain hygiene products can be difficult to buy in some countries; it is advisable that, where possible, you bring your own.

• Travel managers already know they need to focus on safety as more women travel for business; however, this needs to translate into specific changes to travel policies.
• Global travel policy should reflect the diversity of your travellers; different locations and different travellers will all have varying risk profiles which should all be respected.
• Companies should be able to account for their employee’s whereabouts; this is especially true in more high-risk locations.

Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 9 Solace Global’s Global Security Forecast is a weekly risk round-up that is issued weekly by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team. The report covers important and interesting stories that have occurred over the past week and also includes a few upcoming events to give both businesses and travellers an insight into potential threats across the globe.

Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 9 The Solace Global Maritime Snapshot provides an overview of the latest maritime incidents across the globe as well as a deeper look at some interesting maritime stories that have occurred.

GLOBAL HEADLINES

Nigeria: Nationwide – Severe Political Risk Elections delayed until 23 February after electoral commission unable to get materials to polling stations. The general elections that were scheduled in Nigeria on 16 February to elect the President and the National Assembly were delayed until the 23 February. The initial vote was, quite dramatically, rescheduled in a dramatic overnight press conference a mere five hours prior to the vote. The last-minute decision surprised the country, many Nigerians had been queuing since the day before or had travelled considerable distances to cast their votes. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimated that the delay has cost the economy 1.5bn USD. The Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) gave several reasons for the delay. The main issues being logistical delays, bad weather and difficulty delivering ballot papers and attempted sabotage. Both main parties, the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main challenger, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have condemned the delay. The APC has alleged that the PDP wanted to halt the moment of President Muhammadu Buhari. The PDP has otherwise stated that the Inec had delayed the election to create “the space to perfect their rigging plans”; in favour of the president. The delay is likely to have an impact on voter turnout and will most likely favour the incumbent president due to the increase in voter apathy in most areas except those with historically high turnouts; historic President Muhammadu Buhari strongholds. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel into Nigeria until after the elections due to the threat of protests which could turn violent and uncertainty over the outcome. Travellers already in country should limit non-essential movements and avoid all large gatherings and protests. Be aware that unrest and violence can continue for weeks after the day of the vote; especially should allegations of vote rigging, or fraud, occur. Adhere to all advice issued by the authorities. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. United Kingdom: London – Low Political Risk Eleven MPs have split from their parties and banded together in a so-called Independent Group. A number of British parliamentary members have defected from the Labour and Conservative parties. The move has been made as a result of a number of differences; namely alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour party and the handling of Brexit by both parties. The group was founded by Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and Chuka Umunna, who simultaneously announced their resignations from the Labour Party on 18 February. The group’s key message is that “Politics is broken. Let’s change it”. They have stated that they aim to pursue evidence-led policies, rather than those led by ideology, with the group being tolerant of differing opinions. Specific values include; a social market economy, freedom of the press, environmentalism, devolution, subsidiarity and, vitally, their opposition to Brexit. All eleven MPs support a second referendum on the EU. The split has not yet resulted in any changes by the governing Conservatives or Labour party; however, there have been reports of numerous ministers in both parties also considering defecting. On 22 February, Ian Austin announced his decision to quit the party, though he has not joined the Independent group. ADVICE: The defections demonstrate the political instability facing Britain at the moment in the run-up to Brexit, be aware that protests are likely as the date nears or depending on the decisions made by party leaders. A by those opposed and for Brexit occurred on 14 February resulting in disruption around Westminster. Haiti: Nationwide – High Civil Unrest Risk While protests start to halt; food and water shortages remain severe. Anti-government protests that have taken place nationwide since 7 February, blockading the country and all main urban centres. Several clashes between demonstrator and security forces, as well as widespread crime and looting, have forced all business activities to cease and caused severe disruption in transportation, emergency and medical services and schools. While the protests have halted in most of the country, allowing business to partially reopen, critical shortages in key resources such as water, food and fuel remain severe and could trigger new violent outbursts and crime. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor the latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Venezuela: Nationwide – Sever Political Risk Maduro orders border closure with Brazil and limits access from Colombia to prevent foreign aid. The country-wide crisis continues in Venezuela, with contested President Nicholas Maduro ordering the closure of the border with Brazil and reportedly considering the same course of action with Colombia. The decision spanned from the declaration of the interim President and opposition leader Juan Guaido to accept international foreign aid to tackle the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The Brazilian and Colombia are among the countries that recognise Guaido as interim President and are key in the facilitation of international aid, mainly coming from the US, reaching the Venezuelan citizens. Elected President Maduro has already closed maritime borders with all Caribbean countries where international aid was stored, calling the initiative an attempt from Washington to meddle in Venezuelan national affairs in order to gain access to its oil reserves, and denying the existence of a humanitarian crisis in the first place. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Mali: Timbuktu – Severe Military and Terrorism Risk France says it has killed senior al Qaeda commander in the Sahel. The French government has announced that it has killed a “senior commander of Al Qaeda” on 22 February. Yahya Abou El Hamame was reportedly killed during an operation in Mali. The Algerian, who was understood to be second in command of Nusrat al-Islam, officially known as Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM), a branch of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), was allegedly responsible for kidnapping a number of Westerners in North and West Africa. El Hamame was part of a younger generation of senior AQIM figures. Unlike many other senior commanders, he was not trained in the Afghan jihadist camps. Despite this, he is understood to have risen rapidly in AQIM’s top ranks. El Hamame was reported to have been an able commander and administrator. He was also believed to have excellent knowledge of the southern stretches of the Sahel around northern Mali – a factor that analysts believe led to his promotion after his predecessor, Abou Zeid, was killed by French forces. El Hamame is also believed to have carried out the execution of French engineer, Michel Germaneau, who was kidnapped in northern Niger. ADVICE: Jihadist militancy is common in northern Mali and kidnappings of both locals and westerns often occurs. Travellers are not advised to travel in the region unless adequate security measures are taken; even then, travel should only be conducted in business essential.

GLOBAL FORECASTS

Europe: Brussels – Low Political Risk Talks continue ahead of potential vote in UK parliament on 26-27 February. British Prime Minister Theresa May is continuing to negotiate with the European Union over the terms of Britain’s departure from the union which is due to occur in a little over a month’s time. Both sides have been positive about the talks despite no tangible evidence of progress being made. An added dimension to the debate is the defection of MPs from both the Conservatives and Labour. Should the defections continue the Conservatives government may lose their ability to pass legislation while the Labour opposition may be forced to change its policy on the country leaving the EU. In addition to the ongoing talks, Britain has announced that trade deals with Japan and Turkey will not be ready by the time that Britain exits the European Union. Therefore, on 22 February, the country has only been able to finalise “continuity agreements” with seven of the 69 countries and regions with which the EU has trade deals. ADVICE: Travellers and businesses should continue to monitor the ongoing discussions in Brussels and the debate in the British Parliament. The situation could change rapidly in the coming weeks with the potential of a disruptive no deal exit still a possibility. Vietnam: Hanoi – Low Political Risk North Korea-United States Summit to be held on 27 February. Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un are set to meet for a second round of the North Korea-US summits in Hanoi on 27 February. Among the topics to be discussed, are the establishment of a roadmap for the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, and the signing of an armistice that would put an end to the war between the two nations. A senior American official visited Pyongyang earlier this month to arrange details ahead of the nuclear summit. During the first historical Summit, held in Singapore in June last year and representing the first ever meeting between leaders of the two states, a joint statement was released agreeing on commitments towards a denuclearised Korean Peninsula and the commitment towards the development of peaceful relations. ADVICE: Travellers visiting Hanoi should exercise caution and anticipate heightened security around the area hosting the event, possible disruption in main roads and transportation, as well as possible demonstration in support or against the summit. Algeria: Algiers – High Civil Unrest Risk Demonstrations planned to denounce President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s candidacy in the upcoming elections. Demonstrations are being held and are expected to be held in the Algerian capital on 22 and 24 February to denounce the candidacy of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the 18 April elections. On 22 February, there was a significant deployment of security personnel across the country; especially in Algiers. On the 22 February protests which are currently underway at the time of writing, the authorities have reportedly fired tear gas outside the presidential palace. There have also been reports of internet outages; however, these have not been confirmed. The incumbent president has announced, on 10 February, that he would seek a fifth term. The announcement came after four parties announced that they would support him (the National Liberation Front (FLN), the National Rally for Democracy, the Rally for Hope for Algeria and the Algerian Popular Movement). The president has rarely been seen in public since suffering from a stroke in 2013 with critics saying his health limits his ability to carry out his duties. A large protest also occurred on the outskirts of Khenchela – located some 500km southeast of capital Algiers – on 19 February after the mayor (a member of the president’s ruling FLN) stated that he would bar presidential hopeful Rachid Nekkaz from meeting his supporters outside the town hall. ADVICE: Travellers in country should avoid all gatherings and vacate any areas that experience unrest. Adhere to the instructions issued by the authorities at all time. Monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest details regarding unrest in the region. Guam: Nationwide – Moderate Political Risk Typhoon Wutip is set to strengthen and may impact Guam, Marina Islands and Palau Islands. Tropical Storm Wutip has strengthened into a typhoon on 21 February, further strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours. The island of Weno reported nearly 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall on 20 February as Wutip impacted the region. The islands of eastern Yap State were also impacted on Friday, 22 February, and is expected to continue into Saturday as the storm-system turns northward. It is unclear exactly where the storm will impact; with two scenarios possible. The first being that Wutip could pass near or over Guam, or the storm could track farther west between Guam and Colonia in Micronesia, with a lesser impact being recorded on both the islands. However, even in the event that no islands were directly impacted, gusty winds and downpours can result in localised flooding and power outages. ADVICE: Monitor weather and Solace Secure updates for updated information on the storm if in country and be prepared for travel.

SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
23 Feb	Nigeria	Election (delayed)	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
24 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
25 Feb	Kuwait	National Day	LOW
25 Feb	British Virgin Islands	General elections	NEGLIGIBLE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
28 Feb	Kuwait	Liberation Day	LOW
28 Feb	Taiwan	228 Memorial Day	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

GLOBAL HEADLINES

France: Nationwide – Clashes reported at Yellow Vest protests nationwide, 9-10 February. After the National Assembly passed a controversial “anti-hooligan law” that allows police to ban demonstrations, on 9-10 February, a “Yellow Vest” protest was held. Violent clashes were reported along the Champs Elysees and police fired tear gas at protesters. Violence was also reported in front of the National Assembly building. At least 39 people were arrested, and several were injured. Protests were also reported in Toulouse, Marseille, Montpellier and Lyon. ADVICE: Yellow Vest protests are known to turn violent with little notice. Travellers are advised to avoid all Yellow Vets demonstrations and public gatherings. Travellers are advised to monitor local media for situational updates on Yellow Vest (Gilet Jaunes) protests. Further related demonstrations are anticipated over the next weeks. Violence and unrest cannot be ruled out. Egypt: Cairo – Parliament votes to approve draft constitutional changes to allow President Sisi to remain in power for another 12 years The Egyptian parliament has overwhelmingly voted to approve draft constitutional changes that could extend President Abdul al-Sisi’s presidency to 2034. Sisi is currently due to step down in 2022 after his second four-year term; however, 485 of 596 lawmakers voted on 14 February to lengthen presidential terms to six years as well as allowing Sisi to serve another two. Several Egyptian human rights groups have spoken out against the decision. The announcement is unlikely to provoke significant disorder as the Egyptian security forces maintain a firm grip over any potential unrest in country. However, there is a possibility for both demonstrations, outbursts in violence and for terror attacks. A bomb attack was carried out on 15 February with an IED detonating near Giza’s Al-Istiqamah Mosque while the authorities were attempting to diffuse the device. A second IED was successfully diffused near Al-Nahda Square. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to monitor for unrest and be aware of the possibility for further terror attacks. United Kingdom: London – Two injured in acid attack in central London, 12 February. The UK has seen a dramatic increase in acid attacks, with London being a major target area. According to Acid Survivors Trust International (ASTI), there is an average of two acids attacks per day across the country. The latest one occurred on 12 February. During afternoon hours local time, police were called to Argyle Street, Near King’s Cross Station to reports of an altercation between two groups. Officers reported that one group left the location by the time they arrived, however, two men were later found nearby with facial injuries caused by a corrosive substance. No arrests have yet been made. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to be aware of the common occurrence of acid attacks in London. Travellers should report any suspicious behaviour to the authorities and maintain situational awareness at all times. Belgium:  Nationwide – National strike on 13 February brings the country to a standstill A strike organised by air traffic controllers and baggage handlers triggered major disruptions at airports nationwide, notably in Brussels on 13 February. Unionised public-sector workers joined the strike in support of pay demands. Brussel Airlines cancelled 222 flights and reportedly more than 16,000 passengers were affected. Antwerp and Charleroi airports were closed. Several international airlines such as British Airways and Lufthansa, cancelled or rescheduled their flights ahead of the anticipated disruption. The 24hr strike also affected other means of transportation such as trains, buses and trams. Moreover, the air traffic control agency, Skeyes, ordered the shutdown of the national airspace due to safety concerns triggered by staffing uncertainties. ADVICE: The majority of delays have now cleared; however, travellers should contact their airline directly for further information. India: Jammu and Kashmir State – An IED explosion has left almost 50 soldiers dead in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir State Banned terrorist organisation, allegedly backed by Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) has claimed responsibility for the attack in the Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district on Thursday, 14 February. The attack has left 46 soldiers dead and is the deadliest single attack on Indian troops in the region in decades. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of failing to act against the militant group and has stated that it will ensure the “complete isolation” of Pakistan as a result. India also accused that Pakistan of harbouring Jaish-e-Mohammad, the group behind the attack. It has called for global sanctions against the group and for its leader, Masood Azhar, to be listed as a terrorist by the UN security council. However, past attempts at doing so have repeatedly been blocked by China; an ally of Pakistan.

GLOBAL FORECAST

Nigeria: Nationwide – Elections set to take place on 16 February amid heightened security. General elections are scheduled in Nigeria on 16 February to elect the President and the National Assembly. The latest polling suggests that current President, Muhammadu Buhari of the APC (All Progressives Congress), is likely to lose to the opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP (People’s Democratic Party). Security has already been heightened across Nigeria in the run up to the elections, with political demonstrations in major cities, including; Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt, becoming increasingly frequent that have the potential to turn violent. On 10 February, two offices of Nigeria’s Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) were burnt down; however, it is unclear who was responsible. Additionally, following the suspension of the country’s Chief Justice, there are concerns over the potential for voting irregularities. Any indication of such would almost certainly result in widespread unrest and violence, as well as condemnation from the international community. There has also been a recent upsurge in attacks by Boko Haram in Nigeria’s north-east, while the US State Department has reported an increased propaganda campaign by the terrorist group. Both Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) have issued threats stating that they intend to carry out attacks on various targets, including the Nigerian security forces, country infrastructure and on busy urban centres frequented by foreigners’ travellers. ADVICE: Defer all non-essential travel into Nigeria until after the elections have been concluded due to the threat of protests which could turn violent and uncertainty over the outcome. Travellers already in country should limit non-essential movements and avoid all large gatherings and protests. Adhere to all advice issued by the authorities. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Bangladesh: Dhaka – Religious event in Tongi, outskirts of Dhaka, 15-18 February. Bangladesh is set to host Bishwa Ijtema, the world’s second-largest Muslim gathering, between 15 – 18 February. The event will be centralised along the banks of the Turag River near Tongi, on the outskirts of Dhaka. Although the gathering is generally peaceful, it is predicted that some five million attendees will flood into Dhaka and surrounding areas, which will inevitably hinder of security and travel to some extent. Moreover, there has been confrontations between two factions of Tabligh Jamaat in the build-up to this year’s festival – with clashes taking place in December and resulting in at least one death and more than 200 injured. The State Minister for Religious Affairs, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, is said to have secured a peaceful conclusion after talks with the two feuding Tabligh Jamaat factions – but this does eliminate all concerns regarding the event. ADVICE:  Travellers planning to attend the festival should exercise caution and remain vigilant. Travel in and around the area will be severely impacted and therefore travellers will need to allow additional time for movements or plan alternative routes. Haiti: Nationwide – US embassy evacuates non-emergency staff as unrest impacts country; further unrest likely The US State Department has issued a travel warning on Thursday ordering all non-emergency personnel and their families out of the country. The warning comes as protests in Port-au-Prince have turned violent this week; at least two people were killed and dozens more injured, some severely, as police and anti-government protesters clashed. Unrest has been ongoing for months in the Caribbean country’s capital as demonstrators are demanding to know the whereabouts of some $4 billion that was supposed to have gone to social development. Tourists and aid workers have reportedly been trapped in the country by the unrest, with the protests also impacting supplies of food, fuel and drinking water. Further unrest is likely over the weekend. ADVICE: All non-essential travel to the country should be deferred for at least the next week. If currently in-country, consider departing as well as limiting all travel to only essential movements. Zimbabwe: Nationwide – Robert Mugabe National Youth Day, 21 February. Zimbabwe is set to celebrate its second Robert Mugabe National Youth Day on 21 February. The public holiday falls on the former President’s birthday and was declared to honour his role in empowering Zimbabwe’s youth. Celebrations on this date are not new and during Mugabe’s rule, it was marked with extravagance and public gatherings across the country. However, the holiday is also highly controversial due to the nature of the decades-long Mugabe rule. Social media and news sources indicate that millions of Zimbabweans are disappointed and angry at the establishment of the public holiday due to Mugabe’s mismanagement of the economy and rampant corruption allegations. Advice: Travellers are advised to avoid large gatherings or protests as they have the potential to turn violent or be suppressed with force by security forces. Spain: Nationwide – Prime minister calls for snap elections on 28 April following rejection of country’s budget Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has called for a snap general election to be held on the 28 April. The call comes after Catalan secessionists joined right-wing parties in rejecting the government’s national budget. The election is set to be the third in less than four years in the country and it was seen as an inevitability after the government’s budget was defeated by 191 to 158. The prime minister’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party is currently ahead in the polls and it is likely that they will use the threat of an incoming right-leaning government as a rallying cry to get voters to the ballot box. Advice: Be aware that political campaigning and politically motivated gatherings are likely in the run-up to the election and may result in disruption.

SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
15 Feb	India	Kumbh Mela	LOW
15 Feb	Afghanistan	Liberation Day	HIGH
15 Feb	Iran	Martyrdom of Imam Reza	HIGH
15 Feb	Serbia	Statehood Day	LOW
16-19 Feb	Nice	Carnival de Nice	LOW
16-19 Feb	Italy	Venice Carnival	LOW
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
18 Feb	Guinea-Bissau	Election campaign	MODERATE
18 Feb	Gambia	Independence Day	MODERATE
18 Feb	Nepal	National Democracy Day	LOW
18 Feb	Puerto Rico	Presidents Day	LOW
19 Feb	Asian Calendar	Lantern Festival	LOW
19 Feb	Cambodia	Buddha Day	LOW
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

Americas

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8 February: Piracy negatively affecting illegal trade between South America and Trinidad Contraband smugglers are seeing a negative impact on their ability to trade between South America and Trinidad as a result of the rise of piracy off the Venezuelan coast. While the trade of narcotics appears to be flourishing, trade in tropical birds, such as bullfinches, par­rots and macaws have all dropped; resulting in shortages in Trinidad and the wider region. Additionally, other illegally imported animals, such as monkeys and even cattle have all but stopped.

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Gulf of Guinea

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9 February: Robber armed with a knife boarded a product tanker in Port of Monrovia Duty crew on routine rounds onboard a berthed product tanker noticed a robber armed with a knife at 0340 UTC in position 06:21.1N – 010:47.8W, Port of Monrovia, Liberia. As a result, the vessels alarm was sounded, resulting in the robber escaping. On searching the vessel, ships stores were reported stolen. Incident was reported to a local agent and port control.

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Indian Ocean

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3 February: Crew noticed a boat under forecastle of a product tanker LATE Report | Chief officer on routine rounds onboard berthed Singapore-flagged product tanker noticed a boat under the forecastle and notified the other deck crew at 1630 UTC in position 23:02.02N – 070:13.39E, Oil Jetty No4, Kandla Port, India. Seeing the alerted crew, the boat moved away. On inspection, it was noticed that a store room had been broken into but nothing reported stolen. Port authorities notified.

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Asia

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5 February: Ship property stolen at anchor in Belawan Anchorage Duty crew on routine rounds onboard anchored Singapore-flagged tanker noticed a robber escaping via the hawse pipe and raised the alarm at 2205 UTC in position 03:55.40N – 098:40E, Belawan Anchorage, Indonesia. Crew mustered and on searching the vessel ships properties reported missing. 10 February: Robbery reported on an anchored bulk carrier in Caofeidian Anchorage, China Duty officer onboard anchored Singapore-flagged bulk carrier noticed from the bridge wing a hose connected from an opened DO tank manhole to a small unlit barge alongside the ship at 1840 UTC in position 38:52.50N – 118:42.60E. The vessel crew raised the alarm, and duty AB were instructed to investigate. Hearing the alarm, the duty officer noticed a robber lowering the hose and escaping in the barge. On sounding the tank, it was reported that DO had been stolen. Incident reported to VTS Caofeidian. The Coastguard are now investigating.

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A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week

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Second incident in Singapore Strait in a week after vessel sinks near Pedra Branca A Dominica-flagged supply vessel has capsized and sunk in Singapore territorial waters near Pedra Branca on 14 February. At around 07:15 local time the vessel, Ocean Cooper 2 capsized and sank whilst in the westbound lane of the traffic separation scheme. The incident occurred around 3 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, within Singapore territorial waters in the Singapore Strait. The vessel’s three Indonesian crew members were rescued by a nearby accompanying supply vessel, the Jolly Rachel, and are all safe. Additionally, no injuries or oil pollution were reported in the area. The authorities will deploy a vessel to conduct a hydrographic survey of the wreck and will investigate the incident. Traffic in the Singapore Strait remains unaffected. The incident comes less than a week after two vessels collided in Singapore territorial waters off Tuas on 9 February. In that incident, Greek-flagged Pireas and a Malaysian buoy-laying vessel Polaris collided while the Pireas was making its from Singapore to Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia. There were no reported injuries in the incident and the Pireas sustained no damage. Due to these factors, the collision incident was not considered a very serious marine casualty incident under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Marine Casualty Investigation Code. As such the Pireas was allowed to proceed with its journey to Tanjung Pelepas. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) is investigating. During a debate at UN, Russian ambassador proposes international piracy mechanism backed by the UN The Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia, has proposed to create an international, UN-backed, interstate coordinating mechanism to combat piracy at sea. The Ambassador believes that the creation of such a structure would help facilitate the plethora of challenges that countries now face globally. Nebenzia stated that “It is necessary to create under the aegis of the UN a universal and interstate coordinating mechanism, independent of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, which would be dedicated to combating piracy and other types of maritime crime.” The ambassador also stated that Russia is “very concerned” about the recent cases of assaults on merchant ships and kidnappings of their crews. The comments are also potent as On January 2, 2019, pirates attacked the freighter MSC Mandy off the coast of Benin, kidnapping six Russian sailors, including the ship’s captain. Indeed, in its annual report, the International Maritime Bureau (IMO) noted that in 2018 pirates attacked vessels at sea 201 times, 21 more than in the previous year. The Gulf of Guinea saw the majority of these attacks. However, there has also been an increase in incidents in the Americas and robberies at ports across Asia. The ambassador’s comments do hold water, international cooperation has been extremely successful off the coast of Somalia and in the wider ocean. The international naval task forces that have patrolled the region have been successful in deterring pirate activity as well as responding to the incident. Additionally, most importantly, BMP5 (5th edition of the piracy-specific Best Management Practice) and the Global Counter Piracy Guidance means that vessels transiting these routes are equipped with the means to deter and defend themselves. These measures, especially including the inclusion of onboard security, have been extremely successful at stopping pirate attacks. Indeed a number of recent incidents have resulted in pirates aborting attacks after they encounter resistance. The Singapore-flagged vessel that was seized off coast off Cameroon has been released In a statement on 6 February, Singapore-based firm Eastern Pacific Shipping confirmed that the Barents Sea had been released. Vessel, which also carries the Singapore flag departed the port of Limbe in Cameroon with all 26 crew on 5 February. Eastern Pacific Shipping alleged, when the vessel was seized by armed local militiamen, that Mr Jules François Famawa, owner of a local charterer, DSC Marine, had “used illegitimate means to seize the vessel for the purpose of holding its owners to ransom in clear violation of Cameroonian and international law”. It is understood that the  Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, the Republic of Singapore Navy, the various embassies representing the ship’s crew – which includes Indian, Chinese and Turkish nationals – and the Cameroonian authorities were all involved in negotiating the release of the vessel and the crew.

Bahrain: Nationwide – Possibility of protest action on anniversary of 2011 unrest on 14 February The upcoming anniversary heightens the risk posed to travellers as security forces are expected to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards anti-government protests held on the day. “Preventative” arrests are highly likely prior to 14 February and aggressive dispersal measures will be in place to prevent protests from spreading beyond restricted areas and to stop the organisation of mass protests, particularly in Manama. ADVICE: Employ a heightened level of vigilance in the coming week and adhere to all advice issued by security personnel. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Venezuela: Colombian Border – The country’s military has blocked the border crossing with Colombia to halt the arrival of international aid The Venezuelan military has blocked the Tienditas bridge in response to the arrival of US aid trucks. President Maduro has rejected letting the aid into the country, while opposition leader Juan Guaido, who has declared himself interim president, has warned many Venezuelans are in danger of dying without international aid. ADVICE:  All non-essential travel to the country continues to be advised against. Be aware that the situation remains tense and could escalate with little or no warning. Iran: Nationwide – Iranians are set to celebrate the anniversary of the country’s revolution in 1979 Iran is set to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution’s victory on Monday, 11 February. The celebration comes amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, a prolonged economic downturn and an attack on a military base in the southeast of the country. On February 11, Tehran has organised a march to Tehran’s Azadi (freedom) Square in the capital to mark the day the monarchy was officially toppled 10 days after the triumphant return from exile of the revolution’s leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The event is likely to take place under a high level of security, especially after the attack on a Revolutionary Guard military base in Basij. Despite the celebrations, the country faces acute economic challenges as it struggles with a mix of domestic hardships and US sanctions. The country’s currency, the Rial, has sharply devalued against the dollar, driving up prices. While the re-introduction of sanctions has blocked foreign investment and limited oil sales. Tehran has warned against those who threaten the country from within and called for national unity. In addition to these challenges, the country is also dealing with an environmental crisis, brought on by a mix of air pollution, soil erosion, drought and desertification. ADVICE: Travellers in-country are advised to monitor for possible protest action and monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest updates. If driving, be aware that some roads may become blocked by protesters and/or celebratory rallies. Lebanon: Nationwide – Heightened security is being employed ahead of two significant anniversaries in country Security will be high in Beirut ahead of the anniversaries of the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Imad Moughniyeh on 12 February, and the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on 14 February. While commemorative events on 12 February tend to be confined to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut, there is a higher security risk associated with the annual commemoration of the assassination of Rafik Hariri in the Downtown area. Despite the formation of a new government that put an end to nearly nine months of political deadlock, tensions remain high, with the risk that those could manifest next week. Any major security incident during or against those events, especially on 14 February, would likely derail the achievements thus far. Advice: Travellers are advised to employ a heightened level of caution in the country over the course of the anniversaries. Read our Travel Advisory for more information US: Washington – President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union speech to a joint session of Congress President Trump finally made is State of the Union speech; the president used his speech to extend an olive branch to Democrats despite recent months of accusing them of obstructing the border wall with Mexico. The president also made a case for a state of emergency on the borders of the country. Trump also, in a mirror to President Nixon’s final State of the Union speech, called for an end of the investigation into his presidency. ADVICE: Protest are uncommon in the United States; however, large rallies do occur on occasion over gun violence, women’s rights and other issues; monitor media reports for further information. Cameroon: Yaoundé – US to withdraw military support from Cameroon government over current Anglophone crisis Washington has withdrawn support for the Yaoundé government over the ongoing Anglophone crisis in Cameroon. As a result, the US has halted its C-130 aircraft training program, as well as halting the deliveries of four defender boats, nine armoured vehicles and an upgrade of an ageing Cessna aircraft for Cameroon’s rapid intervention battalion. Furthermore, the United States had withdrawn its offer for Cameroon to be part of the State Partnership Program, a military cooperation program. ADVICE: The situation in the country remains adverse, especially in the anglophone regions to the northwest and southwest of the country. Only essential travel to these regions should be carried out. France/Italy: Rome – Paris has withdrawn its ambassador to Italy for consultations after a series of provocations by the Italian government The French foreign ministry said that it had recalled its ambassador to Rome for consultations after a series of “provocations” by Italy’s populist government. In a statement, the ministry said, “for several months France has been the subject of repeated accusations, unfounded attacks and outlandish claims.” Tensions have been high between the two countries since the election of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and far-right League party came to power in June in a coalition government. ADVICE: The latest political spat is unlikely to cause much changes in the two countries’ relations. However, the foreign government support for Yellow Vest protesters shows the strength and enduring power of the movement. Further protests should be expected in the coming weeks. Afghanistan: Kabul – After progress in peace talks, the US has now stated its intentions to withdraw from Afghanistan The Taliban have now sat down for talks with Americans in Qatar and with senior members of the Afghan elite in Moscow. However, while these talks are ongoing, the US president Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants US troops to withdraw from the country and from America’s longest war. While the progress of the talks has been positive, the talk of the United States intention to leave as long as a deal can be made gives a sense of unease. When a superpower signals its desperation to get out of a conflict, the subsequent negotiations are designed only to provide diplomatic cover. The Taliban will be aware of this, they will, therefore, make more promises that they do not intend to keep simply to help expedite the US troop departure; indeed, they have offered similar assurances in the past. The Taliban are calling for a withdrawal of foreign troops and an instalment of an interim government. Both of which would allow them to wait for the last US troops to leave before potentially disregarding any agreements and attempting to retake Kabul and the majority of the country; as they did in 1996. ADVICE: The situation in Afghanistan remains unstable. Should talks collapse, there may be an increase in attacks in the country; especially in Kabul.

SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
10 Feb	Switzerland	Referendum	NEGLIGIBLE
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

Venezuela: Nationwide – Unrest continues across country as political uncertainty in country Protests continue to impact Venezuela as the political situation remains volatile and unchanged following violent unrest that occurred in Caracas and other urban centres on the anniversary of the 1958 civilian-military movement to dispose of the military junta. Over the past week, numerous governments have announced support for the opposition leader, and the self-declared president, Juan Guaido; including the majority of South America, the United States and Australia. While European countries have been slightly more cautious in their support, the European Union has called on de facto President Nicolas Maduro to call for immediate elections; a move he has refused. Maduro currently enjoys less widespread international support; however, notably, China and Russia continue to support him. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Europe: Brussels – The EU has agreed visa-free travel for UK citizens amidst a dispute over Gibraltar as Brexit future remains unclear The EU has agreed to visa-free travel for all UK citizens, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. UK travellers will be able to visit the Schengen area for short stay visits (maximum 90 days in any 180 days) without a visa. This measure is considered an act of reciprocity, as Britain had already confirmed EU citizens travelling to the UK for short stays would not require a visa. However, as with much of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, parts of the regulation announcement have been met with criticism by UK officials over the description of Gibraltar as a “colony”. The terminology was reportedly an insertion at the request of Spain, which holds a long-standing sovereignty claim to the peninsula. Additionally, British politicians have had their February recess cancelled as the next steps to the British exit from the European Union remain unclear. It is likely that more information about what Britain will do will be released in the coming week following meetings amongst politicians on both sides of the channel. ADVICE:  Travellers are advised to continue monitoring the Brexit situation as parliament in the United Kingdom remains far off from agreeing the deal that the British government agreed with Brussels and it remains unclear what exact implications a no-deal Brexit would have. France: Nationwide – Further Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) protests planned nationwide Further Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) protesters have announced their intention to hold demonstrations across France on Saturday 2 February. Paris, Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Rouen, Strasbourg, Toulouse and Valence. The protests come as the French government plans to introduce measures to ban masks at rallies in an effort to tackle unrest. The French government has come under scrutiny for these measures and the use of “offensive” weapons. Groups have recently been stating that the French police’s brutality cannot be denied after a number of injuries. France’s legal advisory body, the council of state, examined an urgent request by the French Human Rights League and the CGT trade union to ban police from using a form of rubber-bullet launcher in which ball-shaped projectiles are shot out of specialised handheld launchers. France’s rights groups have long warned they are dangerous and carry “disproportionate risk”. ADVICE: Travellers in-country are advised to avoid all protests and monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest updates. If driving, be aware that some roads may become blocked by protesters.

GLOBAL HEADLINES • 1 – 8 February 2019

US: Nationwide – Freezing temperatures result in snowfall across large parts of country; at least 12 deaths have been reported Extremely cold temperature and heavy snowstorms have resulted in significant disruption across the United States. The Midwest and Northeast have seen the worst of the adverse weather. At least eight people have been killed as a result so the so-called “polar-vortex”. Significant flight delays have been reported at numerous airports; with Chicago-area airports seeing some of the worst of the disruption. Around 1600 flight cancellations were reported at O’Hare International Airport and Midway International Airport. Some temperatures have been reported as low as -40C (-40F) with windchill and rail workers have resorted to setting railway junctions on fire to keep trains running in the Chicago area. Weather forecasters have warned that there is further bad weather to come. The storm system is likely to move south west toward the coast in coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in the United States are advised to monitor weather reports and ensure that you wear adequate clothing when outdoors or driving. be aware that transport delays and cancellations are extremely likely. Ensure flights are operating and refrain from non-essential travel. Lebanon: Beirut – Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri has finally managed to form a new government after all factions agree a deal Lebanese factions have agreed to form a new government after what has been nine-month pf political wrangling. The “government of national unity’s” first challenge will be to revive the country’s economy and look to cut national debt; which currently stands at 150 percent of GDP. The cabinet, which consists of 30 members, includes four women – which is a first for Lebanon. Hezbollah were awarded two seats in the cabinet and their Sunni allies received one. Additionally, most likely as a bargaining chip, Hezbollah also chose the health minister; however, he is not a member of the Shia Islamist party/militant group. Mr Hariri, only 48 years old, is now a veteran of Lebanese politics; his father was killed by a bomb allegedly planted by men linked to Hezbollah. Lebanon has long had a power-sharing political system between the different religious denominations. The number of seats in parliament is split between Christians and Muslims. Cabinet members must also present this balanced nature with the president, prime minister and speaker of the parliament each come from a specific religious background. ADVICE: While the announcement of the new government ends months of uncertainty, be aware that protests are still possible. This is especially true should the new government find itself unable to tackle the current countries crisis. Pakistan: Islamabad – Pakistan military successfully test fires a new short-range missile On 31 January, the Pakistani army test-fired a new short-range missile – called Nasr; which reportedly has a strike range of about 70 km – as part of an Army Strategic Forces Command training exercise. The missile reportedly has “extreme inflight manoeuvrability, including the end flight manoeuvrability”. This will, allegedly, allow the missile to penetrate any currently available Ballistic missile defence system in the region. There is little doubt that the Nasr missile has been developed with India in mind. The Indian military has denied, but allegedly possesses a military doctrine known as “Cold Start”. The doctrine is part of Indian defence planning and involves various branches of India’s conventional military conducting offensive operations as part of unified battlegroups. In theory, the doctrine intends to allow India’s conventional forces to perform holding attacks to prevent a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan in case of a conflict. ADVICE: A conflict between India and Pakistan remains highly unlikely. Both countries have internal issues that require more attention than a full-scale conflict. Additionally, the possession of nuclear weapons and the mutually assured destruction theory also dampens any prospect of conflict. Afghanistan: Kabul – Officials from the US and the Taliban have made progress during peace talks Talks between the US and Taliban representatives concluded on 26 January after six days in which some significant progress was made towards the potential ending of the enduring conflict. However, some doubts have been raised over two pivotal points; an overall ceasefire and the withdrawal of foreign troops. Another strong point of concern has been the Taliban reluctance to negotiate directly with Afghan officials, raising doubts of the long-term endurance of any peace deal that could be made, and increasing the likelihood of continued domestic insecurity after the withdrawal foreign forces. Progress has been made towards the Taliban’s agreement in no longer permitting terror groups, such as ISIL or Al Qaeda, to find “safe havens” in Afghanistan. Both the US and Taliban officials have agreed to continue negotiations, although no date has been publicly announced as yet. ADVICE: Despite the ongoing talks, attacks by the Taliban remain highly likely as do attack by other militant groups. Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts.  Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency. Nigeria: Nationwide – Six sailors kidnapped in early January have been released

SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
3 Feb	United States	Super Bowl	NEGLIGIBLE
7 Feb	Germany	Berlin Film Festival	NEGLIGIBLE
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
28 Feb	Brazil	Salvador de Bahia Carnival	LOW
3 March	Estonia	Parliamentary Elections	NEGLIGIBLE

Gulf of Guinea

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24 January: Vessel attack 35nm south of Brass An underway product tanker was reportedly attacked by a single skiff with between 5 and 7 armed pirates onboard, roughly 35nm SSW of Brass, Nigeria. The general alarm was raised, non-essential crew mustered in the citadel and the vessel conducted evasive manoeuvres. The pirates fired upon the vessel; however, vessel hardening measures resulted in pirates moving away. The vessel was reported safe and the incident was reported to Nigerian Navy. 25 January: Second vessel attacked near Brass, Nigeria An exchange of gunshots occurred between a merchant and pirate vessel. The MV applied BMP5 measures and increased the distance from the skiff. The vessel and crew were both reported safe. 25 January: Third vessel attacked 75nm off Brass, Nigeria An underway MV approached by two skiffs at approximately 75nm SSW of Brass, Nigeria. The skiffs which had around 7-8 people onboard, came alongside and attempted to board. The MV increased speed resulting in skiffs turning away. Both the vessel and crew were recorded as safe.

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Americas

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17 January: Ship stores stolen in Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela Unnoticed, robbers boarded an anchored tanker in Puerto Jose Anchorage, Venezuela. They stole ship’s stores and escaped. The theft was noticed by the duty crew during routine rounds.

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South East Asia

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27 January: Twin bombing at church in Jolo, Philippines, leaves 18 dead The coastal city of Jolo has been put on lockdown following a twin bombing on a church in the city. The attack, which was claimed by ISIS, has raised fears of an increase in separatist violence in the region.

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Mediterranean

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11 January: Israeli Vessel enters Lebanese waters An Israeli vessel is reported to have entered Lebanese waters. Details surrounding the incident are unclear; however, it is understood that there was no confrontation and that the vessel returned to its own national waters shortly after.

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A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week

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“Pirates of the Caribbean” operate in the service of drug trafficking between Venezuela and Trinidad Drug trafficking organisations appear to be building up networks and infrastructure to begin upscaling the illegal transportation of narcotics from Venezuela’s province Sucre to the Caribbean. Indeed, the increase in maritime piracy between Trinidad and Venezuela, most notably robberies and attacks on fishermen, may indeed aide in the upscaling of the illicit trade. The country’s proximity has meant that smuggling has been a way of life for many people for almost 10 years. Venezuela is only separated by 16 kilometres of sea from Trinidad. However, the security issues in Venezuela has resulted in a sharp increase in incidents, with the robbery of fishermen now an almost constant occurrence. From Trinidad and the wider Caribbean, the drug traffickers will then be able to export their produce towards the United States and Europe. Sources consulted by InSight Crime have stated that the issue is a complex one: the so-called “Pirates of the Caribbean” operate at the service of two organizations engaged in international drug trafficking, which are located in Rio Caribe, Arismendi municipality of the state Sucre: the bands of San Juan de Unare and San Juan de las Galdonas. The objective of these modern pirates would be to clear the drug routes east of Venezuela and the way to achieve this is by stealing engines and equipment from fishermen, both from Trinidad and Venezuela, to prevent them from travelling along the maritime strip between two countries. This route can then be made clear, and narcotic traders can transport produce from Colombia, through Venezuela and continue towards the Caribbean islands prior to then heading on to other, more lucrative destinations. Indian Navy conducts two day “Sea Vigil” exercise to monitor coastline 22-23 January The exercise was the largest the country had ever conducted in recent times and saw nearly 150 ships, 40 aircraft and a number of other strategic assets of the navy and Coast Guard take part. The exercise, which comprised of two parts, saw the navy, coast guard, police and Kochi Port all take part. With the main goal being to test the overall security of the coastal regions and their preparedness in thwarting an attack by infiltration through the sea route. Additionally, during the exercise, multi-agency teams also evaluated the security set up implemented by agencies including at fishing harbours, fish landing centres, police control rooms and ports. In the first phase, all stakeholders assessed the robustness of their own organisations. During the second phase, simulated attacks were carried out on vital installations and assets by infiltrating through the sea, in Kerala and Lakshadweep. The security agencies were able to thwart attempts by the opposing force to infiltrate onto the coast. Samoa set to receive new patrol boat Samoa is set to receive a new Australian government-funded patrol boat. The acquisition is important as the vessel is part of a wider strategy to improve security cooperation between the two countries. Australia and Samoa will now continue to enhance security and cooperation across defence, policing and cybersecurity. This strategy is being copied by the Australian government across the region. As a result, the Guardian-class Pacific Patrol Boat program will see 21 vessels being gifted by Australia to 12 Pacific Island nations, as well as Timor Leste, as part of the Australian Government’s Pacific Maritime Security Program. The strategy, highlighted in the Australian government’s 2016 Defence White Paper, of gifting vessels was carried out by the Australian government to Pacific islands between 1987 and 1997. The strategy also includes a long term Australian sustainment, training, infrastructure, and advisory support program and will replace the vessels originally gifted between 1987 and 1997. Myanmar to establish coast guard under civilian control According to Union Minister for Transport and Communications U Thant Sin Maung, the Myanmar government is planning to establish a coast guard under the control of the civilian government, not the military. The coast guard will be set up with the main goal to protect national security and fight drug and arms smuggling, as well as human trafficking. According to the president’s office, the reason for setting up the coast guard as a civilian department was that while the navy has the manpower and equipment required to form a coast guard right away, it would be hard for it to handle certain tasks, such as inspecting commercial ships. Therefore the coast guard will be formed with personnel from various departments including Immigration, Customs and Fire Services.

VENEZUELA: Countrywide – Anti-government protests to continue following international support l Risk Rating Change l HIGH to SEVERE l Defer All Travel As part of Solace Global country risk review system, the risk rating for Venezuela has changed from HIGH to SEVERE.   We are advising travellers to DEFER ALL TRAVEL at the current time and for those currently in Venezuela – they should prepare to leave via commercial airline in the coming days.  We regularly review countries alongside our risk matrix and consider potential threats alongside the traveller’s capability to mitigate such threats.  The recent deterioration in the security environment following the outbreak of countrywide protests alongside the long-term degradation of basic government functions, such as healthcare and policing, has left the travellers increasingly exposed to risks. Further complications arise following the decision by several international governments to recognise opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim leader of the country.  This has already provoked a response from the de jure President, Nicolas Maduro, who has broken off diplomatic ties with the US and ordered their diplomats to leave within 72 hours.   The military leadership in Venezuela continue to back Maduro, strengthening his position while also leaving foreign travellers, especially from those countries that have recently come out condemning the Maduro government, increasingly vulnerable to targeted threats while in-country.  Please see our recent Travel Advisory for further details. ADVICE: Defer all travel to Venezuela at the current time.  If you have travellers in-country – start making arrangements for their outbound travel and maintain regular communication until they have left the country. DRC: Kinshasa; urban centres – Tensions remain elevated following inauguration of President Tshisekedi.  Minimise movement near protest flashpoints. Felix Tshisekedi was inaugurated as the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on 24 January which marks the first peaceful transition of power in the DRC for 60 years.  Tensions throughout the country remain elevated throughout the country as opposition candidate Fayulu and the Catholic Church continue to call into question the legitimacy of the results.  On 20 January, Congo’s Constitutional Court confirmed Felix Tshisekedi’s presidential election win following a challenge by his main challenger Martin Fayulu who rejected the vote tally by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI). The CENI announced provisional results contradict data compiled by the 40,000 election observers operating under the Catholic Church which indicates that the declared runner up, Martin Fayulu, won as much as 61% of the vote.  While the post-election security environment has remained reasonably calm – tensions are expected to become elevated the longer investigations go on.    For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Travellers currently in the DRC should continue to minimise movement near potential protest flashpoints in major urban centres and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. Flashpoints include the Constitutional Court and Independent National Electoral Commission in Kinshasa and government buildings in other major cities. If you are in-country, ensure that you have access to, secure, compound-based accommodation and a clear escalation plan if the event security situation deteriorates.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details. FRANCE: Paris; urban centres – Anticipate disruption during ‘Gilets Jaunes’ (Yellow Vest) protests on 26 January; counter-protest scheduled for 27 January Countrywide anti-government demonstrations are expected to take place on 26 January as part of the ongoing Yellow Vest movement (Gilets Jaunes).  Scheduled protests have been occurring weekly since 17 November and approximately 84,000 people participated in anti-government rallies on 19 January.  Protests have caused significant disruption in key urban centres, including in the capital Paris, as demonstrators have attempted to block motorways and petrol stations leading to severe traffic delays.  French police have attempted to minimise the impact on major road routes, especially the A1 and A3 highways that connect Paris to Charles de Gaulle Airport.   French authorities have been known to employ forceful measures to disperse protesters including the use of tear gas, stun grenades and water cannons. ADVICE: Reconfirm the status of routes prior to setting out and ensure that you factor in additional time to complete your journeys. Plan routes avoiding key protest locations to minimise disruption. There have been minor physical altercations between motorists and protesters, if you are caught in traffic caused by protests, remain in your car and follow the direction of the local authorities. SUDAN: Khartoum; urban centres – Anti-government protests continue l Defer non-critical travel in coming weeks Violent anti-government demonstrations have continued into their sixth week amidst growing calls for Omar al-Bashir to step down as President of Sudan. At least 29 people have been killed since protests began on 19 December over the worsening economic situation that has plagued the country since economic reforms were introduced in January 2018.   Protests have occurred daily in major urban centres, including the capital Khartoum and Port Sudan leading to clashes with security forces. Reports suggest that both the military has used live ammunition and tear gas to disperse protesters. A campaign of arrests by the government has tried to target key leaders in the movement including opposition politicians, students, local journalists and civic leaders.  Several foreign journalists have had their work permits revoked and have been asked to leave the country while at least five Sudanese journalists working for foreign media agencies have been detained. For more information please see our latest Travel Advisory. ADVICE: Non-critical travel to Sudan should be deferred until the situation stabilises.  For those in-country, minimise movements in major urban centres in the coming weeks and stay up to date with planned political demonstrations in your area. If you are in-country, ensure that you have access to, secure, compound-based accommodation and a clear escalation plan if the event security situation deteriorates.  Monitor Solace Global alerts for further details.

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Global Headlines • 12 – 18 January

LIBYA: Tripoli – Tentative ceasefire holding following clashes between rival militias. Liaise with security provider regarding ground movements. A tentative ceasefire that was implemented after more than a week of fighting between Tripoli-based and Tarhuna-based militias in the capital Tripoli.  At least 16 people were killed and 65 injured following eight days of fighting between militia groups in the south of the city that began on 15 January. Fighting occurred near to the Tripoli International Airport (TIP) after the Government of National Accord (GNA) sought to requisition the airport to begin restoration work. Tensions have remained elevated between regionally based militias since September when a ceasefire ended a month of fighting that killed 100 people.  The influential 7th Infantry Kani Brigade, who are based in Tarhuna, moved on Tripoli following reports that militias based in the capital have been using their presence to exert greater control on politicians and businesses.  Tripoli remains the financial hub of Libya and of central importance to competing factions. Tarhuna based militias have accused the main Tripoli-based militias of exploiting their position to illicit bribes and engage in political corruption. While the ceasefire is expected to hold for the time being following the 7th Infantry Kani Brigade move back to its base in Tarhuna, parliamentary elections are due to take place in early 2019 and could present a further flashpoint for the escalation of fighting between competing militias in western Libya. With Tripoli gaining in strategic and political importance, the leadership of militias based outside the city are growing anxious that Tripoli-based militias are monopolising on major income streams related to the oil industry. ADVICE: While business critical travel to Tripoli remains possible, it remains essential that all logistics are supported by an approved in-country security provider who can support with flexible travel arrangements and client-specific security support.  All travellers should receive a comprehensive briefing on the main security risks prior to travel. SYRIA: Damascus – Detonation of car bomb near Russia Embassy injures four on 24 Jan.  Continue to defer all travel to Syria. A car bomb was detonated near the Russian Embassy in Damascus injuring four people on 24 January in the third such explosion to occur in government held areas of Syria in less than a week.   The blast occurred near the Old City district in an area that is currently housing several foreign embassies that have relocated to the city since the last rebel movement was expelled from Eastern Ghouta in February 2018. A car bomb was also detonated in the coastal city Latakia on 22 January killing one and injuring 14 and an explosion occurred in the southern suburbs of Damascus on 20 January. While the Assad government forces have retaken most of the major urban centres throughout Syria in recent months, many civilians living in these cities are opposed to Assad’s rule.  Further attacks are likely in Damascus in the coming months.  The Syrian war has resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths, displaced almost 50 percent of the population and reignited sectarian divides throughout the country.  Governance structures remain severely depleted and anger amongst the local populations has grown as the government have failed to deliver basic civil services. ADVICE: Continue to defer all travel to Syria at the current time.  While some diplomatic representation is reopening in Damascus and the security situation has steadily improved, the preoccupation of security forces with ongoing conflict operations means security is still not adequate for travel.  Both crime and unrest are likely to increase in the coming year with security forces responding aggressively to anti-government demonstrations.  International sanctions continued to make it increasingly difficult for businesses to operate in the country. KENYA; Garissa country – Four injured when militants launch an attack on site run by Chinese construction company. Armed militants suspected of being part of the Al Qaeda linked Al Shabaab group stormed a Chinese-owned construction company in Garissa county on 20 January injuring four people before they were repelled by Kenyan security forces.  The attack occurred close to the Somali border and Kenyan intelligence believe the militant group had crossed the border earlier in the day.  Al Shabaab have shown both the desire and capability to launch regular incursions along the porous Kenyan border as well as in coastal areas in the east of the city.  The attack also comes just days after 21 people were killed in the siege of the Dusit D2 hotel in Nairobi which was subsequently claimed by Al Shabaab.  Further attacks in Kenya remain likely in the coming months. ADVICE: Travel to Kenya’s border regions requires comprehensive security support due to the threat posed by Islamic militants.  Travel to Nairobi and other urban centres can continue but travellers should anticipate a heightened police and military presence throughout the city; especially around other major international hotels, shopping malls, government buildings and other areas of interest. Additionally, all travellers should exercise vigilance and follow all official directives issued by security forces.  The country remains on high alert in the coming weeks – potentially leading to disruption in certain central locations.

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Significant Dates and Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Violence
TBC Jan	Guinea	Legislative elections	MODERATE
1 Feb	Senegal	Presidential elections	MODERATE
3 Feb	El Salvador	Presidential elections	HIGH
16 Feb	Nigeria	Presidential and Legislative elections	HIGH
24 Feb	Cuba	Referendum	LOW
24 Feb	Moldova	Legislative elections	MODERATE
TBC Feb	Thailand	Legislative elections	MODERATE

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Click the following link to download this report as a PDF:  Global Security Forecast – Week 4 The Global Security Forecast highlights what travel security managers should look out for over the next week while also providing advice following significant events from the last week. The Global Security Forecast was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Gulf of Guinea

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13 January: Threat by Nigerian Delta “agitators” on country’s oil wells In a statement, Niger Delta “agitators” have threatened to shut down the country if the Federal Government goes ahead with the “harassment” of the Chief Justice. The coalition of the agitators also warned all those who own oil wells in the coastal area to prepare to leave, while asking all persons from the area working in the President Buhari government to “watch” their back. 16 January: Contact made by pirates over kidnapped sailors The Pirates who kidnapped six crew members after they seized the MSC Mandy in the Gulf of Guinea have contacted the shipowner. All those kidnapped in the attack during the early hours of 2 January are understood to be alive and being held in “acceptable” conditions. Additionally, the Russian and Nigerian authorities have reportedly been searching for the seamen. With the Russian Embassy in Nigeria collaborating with the country’s government to track down the location of the crew.

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Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean

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11 January: Explosion and fire at oil refinery in Aden A violent explosion and fire have resulted in significant damage to the state oil refinery in Aden. The fire had reportedly ignited in a reservoir tank holding 7000 tonnes of diesel. There have been reports that the explosion may have been a deliberate act of sabotage; however, this remains unconfirmed.

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South East Asia

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9 January: Malaysian authorities seize drugs following operation The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA)  has foiled an attempt by two fishermen to smuggle 23kg of syabu valued at RM3.4mil out of the country. 10 January: Robbery Ciwandan anchorage, Indonesia During routine rounds, duty crew onboard an anchored cargo vessel noticed the lock to the engine store was broken and ship’s spares missing 12 January: Attempted robbery reported in Cao Fei Dian Large Oil Tank Anchorage, China Two robbers, armed with a steel bar, boarded an anchored bulk carrier at 2030 UTC at the Cao Fei Dian Large Oil Tank Anchorage, China. Duty crew noticed the robbers and raised the alarm. Hearing the alerted crew, the robbers escaped without stealing anything. Incident reported to port authorities. 15 January: Sri Lanka Navy vows to safeguard local fishermen from trespassing Indian trawlers The Sri Lanka Navy has stated that Indian fishermen who illegally poach in the island’s territorial waters have become aggressive and are threatening the livelihood of local fishermen and they will now intervene to protect their national waters; 20 have already been arrested. 15 January: Fishing vessel with foreign crew detained MMEA Sarawak region has detained a locally-owned fishing vessel with a foreign crew for fishing activities which infringed regulations.

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A Closer Look at Maritime News This Week

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IMB states that piracy rose globally in 2018 due to an increase in attacks in West Africa Pirate attacks rose worldwide in 2018 due to a surge of attacks off West Africa, according to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB)’s annual report released last week. As a result, the watchdog has called for an increase in international cooperation to halt the spate of hijackings and kidnappings. According to the IMB, there were 201 recorded incidents of maritime piracy and armed robbery last year, up from 180 in 2017. Of these, reports of attacks in waters between the Ivory Coast and the Democratic Republic of Congo more than doubled, accounting for all six hijackings worldwide, 13 out of the 18 ships that were fired upon as well as the vast majority of kidnap-for-ransom cases. Indeed, in the last quarter of 2018, there was a significant spike in attacks off the coast of West Africa. A wide variety of vessels are being targeted for attack with ships being boarded and hijacked well outside of territorial waters. Crews that are kidnapped are then taken to Nigeria where they are held for ransom; similar to the ongoing Russian sailor’s case. Nigerian waters were by far the most dangerous, with 41 recorded kidnappings in the country’s territorial waters. The Gulf of Guinea has now easily overtaken the Horn of Africa, and the wider Indian Ocean, as Africa’s piracy hotspot. Additionally, the situation does not look like it will improve in the short term, with Nigeria and other countries stating, in some cases, that there is not even a piracy issue. As such, these countries, whose surveillance and maritime defence capabilities are limited, will need to continue bolstering in their own means of intervention. Additionally, a greater emphasis will need to be placed on closer collaboration, with the help of the United States and France; potentially copying the international, Operation Atalanta, counter-piracy operation in the sea off the Horn of Africa. Finally, all vessels transiting the region should have onboard anti-piracy measures in place. Despite the report on the global rise, regional piracy in Asian waters drops Adversely, sea piracy in Asian waters fell to a 12-year low last year according to a regional anti-piracy body. According to the report, there were 76 cases of piracy and armed robbery incidents in the region last year. This is down from 101 cases in 2017 and is the lowest number since the Singapore-based Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP) began tracking such figures in 2007. Despite this, there remain some areas of concern. Among the incidents reported last year, seven occurred along the Singapore Strait and one along the Straits of Malacca. In 2017, there were eight incidents along the Singapore Strait and one along the Straits of Malacca; indicating little change in this area. Additionally, abduction cases also fell in the region; however, these do remain a concern. With two crew members being abducted from a fishing trawler in the Sulu-Celebes Seas off eastern Sabah last September. Another three crew members were also abducted from a fishing boat in December. Chinese subs in Djibouti “worrying” according to Indian admiral India has described the Chinese Navy’s growing presence in Djibouti as “worrying”. Admiral Sunil Lanba stated that  The Chinese navy has grown at the fastest pace of any navy in the world in the past 200 years by adding a phenomenal 80 ships to their navy in the past five years. The admiral has stated that they are a force and they are here to stay. Since 2008, the Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean region has been mostly in the form of an anti-piracy escort force. However, the actual presence of the navy has caused concern for India and other countries. This is especially true since they’ve deployed submarines, which are “the most unlikely platform” to be used in anti-piracy roles. China has, in the past, stated that there is nothing to worry about and that the base is in fact aimed at deterring piracy in the key Middle East shipping lane and to protest China’s ports which are part of President Xi’s Belt-and-Road infrastructure initiative. China has a number of initiatives designed to expand its influence in the region, with the Indian Ocean initiative being called the “String of Pearls” theory. The theory simply refers to the network of Chinese military and commercial facilities and relationships along its sea lines of communication, which extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa. The sea lines run through several major maritime choke points such as the Strait of Mandeb, the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Lombok Strait as well as other strategic maritime centres in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Somalia. The trend is being played out elsewhere with Japanese Admiral Kawano stating that Japan and China were in a “state of conflict” in the East China Sea. However, the admiral has stated that the countries are in communication and were looking for a visit of defence ministries.

Martin Fayulu, leader of the Engagement for Citizenship and Development party in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has called for campaign of civil disobedience following the Constitutional Courts decision to reject his appeal against the election results on 20 January.

As a result Felix Tshisekedi,  of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress party, could be inaugurated as the new President of the DRC as soon as Tuesday 22 January.

The 30 December 2018 Presidential election has been marred with accusations of vote rigging and fraud following an announcement by the Catholic Church election observers that Martin Fayulu received 60% of the presidential vote and should have been announced as President-elect.  These allegations have been backed-up by leaked data from the electoral commission.

Further allegations have suggested that current President Felix Kabila, who has ruled the DRC since 2001, struck a deal with Tshisekedi allowing him the maintain control of the military and several key government ministries.

Polling also did not take place in several key areas due to instability and the ongoing Ebola Crisis.  Polling indicated that all areas would have voted overwhelming for Fayulu’s Engagement for Citizenship and Development party held.  Elections have been postponed in Beni, Butembo (North Kivu province) and Yumbi (Bandundu province) till March.  The close nature of the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) between Fayulu and Tshisekedi suggest that voting in these areas could have had an impact on the final result – further excluding a large percentage of people from the democratic process. Key opposition figures in the DRC, who were excluded from running in the Presidential election but boast huge regional support, have come out and backed Fayulu’s calls for protests.  Heavyweight politicians  Moise Katumbi and Jean Pierre Bemba who backed the Fayulu led-opposition have called on their supporters to join the campaign of civil disobedience raising fears of anti-government demonstrations erupting throughout the DRC in the coming days.

Solace Global are anticipating widespread unrest in the coming days as citizens of the DRC respond to the courts announcement. Protests are likely to be met by a forceful response by security forces who have used live ammunition against demonstrators during the election period.  Key protest flash points will include the capital Kinshasa as well as opposition held cities including Lubumbashi, Mbuji-Mayi and Kananga.  We are also expecting widespread unrest in Beni and Butembo due to the towns exclusion from the voting process which will create further challenges as international organisations respond to the current Ebola Crisis.

Travel Advice

• In-country staff should minimise all movement in the coming days due to the credible threat posed by clashes between demonstrators and security forces.  Staff should remain in a secure, gated location, away from potential protest flashpoints.
• Review evacuation plans to ensure they are up to date, realistic and can be implemented at short notice. Consider how you will rapidly assemble staff in a central and secure location especially if they are working in remote locations.
• Travellers should stay up to date with the latest information, especially regarding political demonstrations. Consult local media, in country contacts and Solace Global Alerts for details of any planned or ongoing demonstrations in your area.
• Periodically test all communication strategies (multiple communication means will be required including satellite phone) and ensure you have the capability to quickly communicate with staff on the ground.  Internet providers and telephone networks are likely to be intermittently disabled in the coming days.
• Significant traffic disruption is likely near protest flashpoints, on major routes and around key transport and business hubs. Plan routes circumventing areas prone to unrest, alternatively allow additional time if travel through affected areas is unavoidable.
• Anticipate heightened security in urban centres, at protest locations and in the vicinity of government buildings. Exercise vigilance and if people start gathering in a location; leave the area immediately and return to a safe location.
• Always carry personal identification and travel documentation in case you need to transit through a checkpoint.