SITUATION SUMMARY

On Friday, 26 June, six people were injured in a knife attack at the Park Inn by Radisson Hotel in central Glasgow, Scotland, in the United Kingdom. A male suspect was shot dead by specialist firearms police officers at the scene.

The six victims are all being treated in hospital, including one police officer, who is said to be in a “critical but stable condition” after suffering knife wounds. Despite earlier reports of three fatalities, the only person killed is understood to have been the assailant.

Armed police teams were called to the hotel at around 12:50 local time after reports of a stabbing and arrived on the scene within two minutes.

Video footage showed armed police entering the building as several people emerged with their hands raised. Eyewitness immediately reported a number of casualties being evacuated on stretchers after police had cleared the building, fatally shooting the suspect. Residents were ordered to stay in their homes and lock their doors.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon condemned the attack and stated that it was not being treated as terrorism-related at this time. Police have also stated that the incident is now contained and that there is no further threat to the public. Armed officers have sealed off part of West George Street amid the ongoing investigation.

The Park Inn Hotel had been housing a number of refugees and asylum seekers in recent months. The vulnerable individuals were rehoused from their previous accommodations to protect them during the COVID-19 pandemic. The motive of the attack remains unclear at this time, with media reports that the assailant may have been an asylum seeker.

The Scottish Police Federation has announced that an internal police review will be conducted into the circumstances of the incident, and the use of a firearm by an officer will lead to an investigation held by an independent commissioner.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Knife attacks occur with some frequency in the United Kingdom, though incidents of this nature remain fairly uncommon. Less than a week prior to the Glasgow attack, another fatal stabbing incident occurred in Reading, where three people died from knife wounds in Forbury Gardens park.

The Reading attack, which was declared a terrorism-incident was the third major terrorist attack since the UK downgraded its official terrorism threat level from “severe” to “substantial”; meaning that attacks remain likely but there is no intelligence of an immediate risk to life.

While the most recent high-profile knife attack in Glasgow has not been designated as terror-related, though the investigation remains underway, and it remains possible, despite the announcement from Nicola Sturgeon, that the Glasgow attack may be reclassified as a terrorist incident.

Knife crime has become a hot-button in the United Kingdom. London, in particular, has gained notoriety for the high frequency of stabbing incidents.

Bladed instruments represent the weapon of choice for would-be attackers and criminals in the United Kingdom. Knives are easily acquired, with virtually no barriers to purchase, as opposed to hard-to-obtain materials such as explosives that require expertise to handle and set up, or firearms that are subject to strict control laws.

As such, knives have been utilised by terrorists to carry out multiple deadly attacks, such as the recent London Bridge attack of 2019. Such attacks are extremely difficult for the authorities to prevent, and they can easily be carried out by lone actors, normally in conjunction with vehicles used to ram passers-by.

However, as evidenced by the Glasgow attack, police and other emergency services are able to respond rapidly to such situations, limiting their potential to cause mass casualties.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

On Saturday, 20 June, three people were killed and three others sustained severe wounds in a stabbing attack in Reading’s Forbury Gardens park (around 60 kilometres west of London).

Emergency services were called to the scene at approximately 19:00 local time following reports of multiple people being stabbed. Within minutes, they blocked several roads in the area and two air ambulances landed nearby.

A 25-year-old man, Khairi Saadallah, was chased, tackled and detained by police officers 5 minutes after the initial 999 call. He was then arrested on suspicion of murder. He was then re-arrested while in custody under Section 41 of the Terrorism Act 2000.

The incident occurred about three hours after supporters of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) gathered peacefully for a demonstration at Forbury Gardens. Police have announced that there was no connection between the two events.

On 21 June, the authorities declared the attack a terrorist incident and reported that counter-terrorism units and security services will support Thames Valley Police with the investigation. Moreover, it was confirmed that there was no credible threat or intelligence to suggest any further attacks.

Authorities also announced that they were not looking for any other people in connection to the attack, as intelligence suggested that the suspect acted alone. Preliminary reports indicate that the attacker is thought to be a Libyan national.

Chief Constable John Campbell, of Thames Valley Police, stated: “incidents of this nature are very rare, though I know that will be of little comfort to those involved and understand the concern that this incident will have caused amongst our local community”.

Residual police cordons and further operations to investigate the incident are possible in the Reading area in the coming days.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

Attacks of this natures, while rare, are not uncommon in the United Kingdom. This is the third major incident since the UK downgraded its official terrorism threat level from “severe” to “substantial”, which means that attacks remain likely but there is no intelligence of an immediate risk to life.

The most prominent driver of terrorist events in Europe, since the turn of the century, is Islamic extremism. While attacks in 2005, the 7/7 bombings, involved a series of coordinated suicide attacks targeting London’s public transport network, recent attacks have largely involved lone-wolf, low sophistication, knife and vehicle ramming attacks.

Indeed, in the past two years since the 2018 Westminster car ramming, knife attacks have become the most common form of terrorist attack in the UK, with a knife assault occurring in Manchester in December 2018, an attempted stabbing in January 2019, the 2019 London Bridge Stabbing in late November last year and an attack in Streatham, London in February 2020.

Normally, attacks of this nature are claimed by a terrorist group, or the attacker pledges allegiance in some way prior to the incident. At the time of writing, neither has occurred nor been uncovered by police, but investigations are ongoing.

In the aftermath of the event, armed Counter Terrorist Specialist Firearms Officers raided a block of flats in Basingstoke Road in Reading where the suspect was reportedly living. As such, further information regarding Khairi Saadallah’s motives is likely to be disclosed in the coming days and weeks.

It has also been reported that the suspect, who is understood to originally be from Libya, came to the attention of the Security Service (MI5) last year. According to media sources, MI5 had received information that Saadallah had aspirations to travel abroad, potentially for terrorist training. However, it is understood that upon further investigation, no genuine threat or immediate risk was identified and no further action was taken.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

The UK government states that the terror threat level is “substantial”, meaning a terror attack is likely. Islamist extremists continue to view the UK as a legitimate and high-profile target for attack. Terror attacks in the UK are likely to be perpetrated by self-radicalised individuals using low-tech means, such as knives and vehicles. Attacks could occur with little warning and may be indiscriminate.

There has been a significant rise in the number of women travelling for both business and personal reasons in recent years, an estimate of $125 billion is to be spent on travel by women in 2020 alone⁽¹⁾. Regardless of the different situations and incidents going on within the modern world, women are not averse to travelling. Even with the enhanced media attention of risks to females travelling abroad, various studies showing that women are travelling now more than ever.

This figure is only going to grow throughout the coming years, representing a cultural shift that is beneficial for businesses globally. Travelling is very popular amongst women and we see this reflected by our own clients with more and more women conducting business trips each year, varying from short visits to Europe and the US to more complex journeys in Africa or Asia. Therefore, Solace Global want to celebrate the fact that female travel is becoming more frequent and to offer our travel safety tips.

Ensuring personnel safety worldwide is one of our top priorities, and we cannot stress enough the importance of companies considering and preparing for all the unique threats that female travellers can face when abroad. According to a study by SAP Concur, 52% of business travellers cite travel safety as the most valuable training their company could provide⁽²⁾, at Solace Global we offer specific country advice and a range of safety training courses for all travellers, a vital element to making sure your employees are empowered with travel confidence.

Certain countries can be recognised as particularly ‘high risk’ and lone female travellers will need to review various country specific and more generalist aspects when conducting business trips in order to stay safe, for instance understanding the local laws and cultural norms. Women are often treated differently to men and therefore it is highly important that these factors are studied and accounted for before commencing a trip e.g. if travelling to a Muslim country, women must cover shoulders and wear clothing that covers just below the knee.

More than 3 in 4 (77%) female business travellers have had a negative experience related to their gender⁽³⁾ highlighting the importance of pre-travel planning and country-specific research. While many of the risks affect travellers regardless of their gender, male travellers are seen as less vulnerable, meaning women are more likely to become a target. According to a recent survey by YouGov and Tourlane⁽⁴⁾, 46% of women are concerned about their safety when travelling solo, compared to only 20% of men, highlighting the perceived risk women face.

There is no escaping that there will always be an element of risk when travelling regardless of who the traveller is; male or female. However, as long as a person and their company are aware of the risks that they may face, and these are mitigated as far as possible, there is no reason that anyone should not conduct an enjoyable and safe trip.

This is important because the last thing travellers want to do while on a trip is to be constantly worrying and making continued threat assessments about their surroundings while doing what they actually came to do.

There are a number of things that both travellers and company risk managers can do to ensure that female business travellers can conduct their business safely and successfully. These include preparation before and actions during their journeys.

Advice for the travellers

Advice for travel managers

The new initiative, what3words, is a simple way to talk about your current location. It has given each 3m square in the world a unique 3 word address, meaning you can refer to any precise location with just three words, no co-ordinates necessary.

Although our travel tracking app, Solace Secure, allows you to pinpoint your current location, at Solace Global Risk we are able to simplify the emergency response process by sharing your what3words with local emergency services who can easily identify your exact location. Whilst we can still provide your co-ordinates, many in country providers are now working to use what3words to improve accuracy and speed in responding to your requests.

With the what3words map overlay you have the option to view associated three-word addresses across the globe. It is a strong development to have the ability to use additional methods to communicate an individual’s location during an emergency, aiding response. If you are already familiar with the function and call into our operations centre wishing to use a code address our response team will be able to continue to support you.

To find out more about what3words visit: https://what3words.com/about-us/.

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 3 January, the Pentagon confirmed a targeted airstrike had been conducted at Baghdad International Airport. The target of the strike was one of Iran’s most powerful commanders, General Qasem Soleimani, who spearheaded Iran’s elite Quds force and their operations throughout the Middle East. The airstrikes resulted in seven killed, including the deputy commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

The Pentagon has attributed numerous attacks on coalition bases in Iraq in recent months to the Iranian General, and conducted the airstrike as a “decisive defensive action to protect US personnel abroad” and to deter “future Iranian attack plans”. The Green Zone in Baghdad was locked down by Iraqi security forces after the attack to prevent further immediate escalations in tensions. There were reports of celebrations in Tahrir Square by anti-government groups in Iraq, who by and large oppose Iranian involvement in Iraqi affairs.

Iran has responded calling the airstrike an “act of international terrorism” and a “foolish escalation” amid current tensions between the two powers. The Iranian government has indicated that it considers the US strike to be a targeted assassination and that it will retaliate. Three days of national mourning have been announced in Iran.

The Iraqi Prime Minister has stated he considers the assassination of Muhandis an “attack on the Iraqi state, government and people”. The Pentagon has confirmed that US President Donald ordered the strike in response to intelligence suggesting that Soleimani was planning attacks against US forces; the deployment of approximately 750 US soldiers to the Middle East had already been announced but may be increased.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The assassination airstrike occurs in a context of escalating reprisal actions in Iraq between the US and Iran. On 29 December 2019, a coordinated series of US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iran-backed Iraqi militia group Kataib Hezbollah (KH), part of the Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), killing at least 25 militants. These strikes followed the death of an American contractor when dozens of rockets, fired by KH, hit an Iraqi military base. In response, the KH leadership vowed a robust response targeted at US forces in Iraq. The Iraqi government strongly condemned the airstrikes, characterising them as a violation of sovereignty.

Protests were sparked on 31 December outside the US Embassy compound in Baghdad’s ‘Green Zone’ following the funerals of KH fighters who had been killed. Supporters of KH and other Shi’ite PMF units rallied outside the embassy. Protesters attacked the compound, breaking down the gates and setting fires at the facility, forcing the withdrawal of all but security staff who fired tear gas. The demonstrators remained in place until 1 January when, following the deployment of hundreds of additional US troops to the embassy compound, they withdrew.

The assassination airstrike represents a significant escalation and is likely to provoke a strong reaction both from Iran and its proxy forces in the Middle East. There is heightened potential for a resumption of anti-Western protests in Baghdad, along with an upsurge in Iranian-backed militant activity regionally. The US Defense Secretary has stated further militia attacks are expected and the US reserves the right to take preemptive action to prevent them. In the midst of Iranian and US actions, Iraq remains fragile with a fractured political and sectarian society, and a growing concern of a resurgence of extremist groups, such as the Islamic State. There is a strong likelihood Iraq will become more unstable in the coming days and weeks.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 15 December, at approximately 06:00 UTC, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was recorded six kilometres south of Magsaysay, southwest of Davao on the island of Mindanao. The earthquake measured a depth of 22.4 kilometres and was felt across Davao del Sur, North Cotabato, South Cotabato and Sarangani provinces.

The majority of casualties and damage were reported in the Davao del Sur province. Initial figures show that at least five people were killed in Digos and Padada, where a three-storey building collapsed leaving several people trapped under the rubble. In the town of Matanao, a six-year-old child was killed after a house collapsed. An undetermined number of people were also injured, mostly near the epicentre in Magsaysay.

The quake also resulted in power outages in the affected areas, including the General Santos Airport (GES). Footage released on social media also showed an electrical transformer exploding in the city of Davao.

In the aftermath of the event, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not issue any tsunami warning. However, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) warned of further aftershocks. At the time of writing, at least 10 strong aftershocks were recorded, with the strongest being a 5.7 magnitude, centred south-southwest of Sulop at 06:52 UTC.

Relief operations are underway and further reports of casualties and damage are to be expected over the coming hours and days. At the time of writing a number of people remain missing.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the highest environmental risks in the country are landslides, tsunamis, volcanoes and cyclones. However, due to the country’s location along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, the Philippines is also prone to strong deadly earthquakes that often result in substantial damage.

Between October and November, Mindanao island has been hit by multiple and intense earthquakes, which led to casualties and considerable damage, notably in Davao del Sur and Cotabato provinces. On 29 October, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck14 kilometres east of Bual, killing at least ten people and damaging buildings and infrastructure, which had been already weakened by a 6.3 magnitude foreshock approximately ten days earlier. On 31 October, a 6.5 magnitude aftershock was recorded south of Kisante; the death toll was then raised to 24, at least 500 were reported injured and dozens are still missing. In the aftermath of these events, experts stated that tremors would occur until December. Since the Cotabato earthquake swarm, more than 349,000 people have been in need of assistance and 58,000 have been living in evacuation shelters, makeshift shelters and even open spaces.

These recent tremors are likely to have worsened the current humanitarian situation. Moreover, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and utilities, a long-term population displacement is anticipated.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE: What to do after an earthquake? 

-Anticipate aftershocks. These can greatly change in magnitude and can sometimes be more intense than the initial tremor itself. It is recommended to adopt the same safety measures, including “drop, cover and hold”, should these occur.

-Check if you are injured and help others if you have been trained to do so.

-If you are trapped, it is important to remain calm and try to use any means to call for help.

-Do not enter any damaged buildings, as further shocks may result in more damage to already weak structures.

-If currently in a damaged building, move away and not re-enter until the authorities confirm it is safe to do so.

-Once you are safe, monitor media (and Solace Secure) updates for emergency information and instructions. Follow all the advice issued by the local authorities.

-In the aftermath of strong earthquakes, there can be several hazards. Check your surroundings for gas leaks, broken water pipes, damaged wires, hazardous materials or broken glass.

-If possible, wear protective clothing and sturdy shoes to prevent injuries. Maintain situational awareness at all times.

-Abide by all instructions issued by the authorities.

-Be prepared for disruption (possibly extensive) in the region as a result of the earthquake.

SECURITY SUMMARY: The Philippines

In addition to the seismic risk in the region, it is important to note that Mindanao suffers from a significant threat of Islamic terrorism. The risk of attacks is higher in the southern Philippines and the island of Mindanao specifically, where a number of terrorist organisations are still active. These include Aby Sayyaf (an Islamic State affiliate), the Maute group, the New Peoples Army (NPA), Jemaah Islamiyah, and Bangsmoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. Reports indicate that clashes between militants and government forces are frequent in the remote areas of Cotabato and Davao del Sur provinces. Attacks and kidnappings can occur across the Philippines and target foreigners, institutions and security forces.

Following an attack on government facilities by ISIS insurgents, martial law was imposed in 2017 and will remain in place until at least the end of 2019. Moreover, following the earthquakes in October and November, the Department of National Defence heightened the security measures in the affected provinces. These include the presence of checkpoints to ensure the safety of the people living in evacuation centres.

Crime is a significant concern and the most reported common types are theft, assault, robberies and gang-related crimes. Certain areas present a higher risk; these include Sarangani Province, North Cotabato Province, South Cotabato Province, General Santos City, Sultan Kudarat Province, Lanao del Sur Province, Lanao del Norte Province and Iligan City.

As such, due to the high rate of criminality and ongoing insurgency, travellers to the Philippines should consider the use of enhanced security measures. This includes the use of prearranged airport meet and greet services and a locally-vetted driver. Furthermore, the use of travel-tracking technology, supported by a live intelligence feed, is also recommended in order to keep abreast of security developments whilst in-country.

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 9 December, at approximately 14.30 local time, the Whakaari/White Island Volcano in the Bay of Plenty erupted, sending a large plume of smoke into the sky.
Authorities reported that up to 47 people, including New Zealanders and foreign tourists, may have been on the island when the eruption occurred. At the time of writing, six fatalities have been confirmed while 30 people have been rescued, some with critical injuries.
However, the death toll is expected to rise as a number of people remain unaccounted for, with search and rescue operations still underway to assess the exact number of fatalities. New Zealand police deputy commissioner has stated though that emergency personnel have been not able to access the island, which is covered in ash, as the current situation is unsafe due to the potential of further eruptions.
The Defence Force (NZDF), who have been called in to provide assistance, are expected to deploy drones to assess the situation as soon as possible, however, reconnaissance flights, carried out by police rescue helicopter and NZDF aircraft, showed no sign of life on the island.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern arrived in the town of Whakatane, the nearest on New Zealand’s North Island to meet with council leaders. During a press conference, the Prime Minister stated that she will be travelling to White Island on 10 December. Police are also said to be investigating the eruption, but have stressed this is on behalf of the Coroner and is not a criminal investigation at this time.
A magnitude 5.3 earthquake has also struck off the coast of New Zealand’s North Island less than 24 hours after the eruption. There is also a reported 50 percent chance of a secondary eruption, hampering rescue efforts.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

White Island, also known as Whakaari in the Maori language, is New Zealand’s most active volcano and has been built up by continuous volcanic activity for over 100,000 years. In 1914, a fatal eruption killed 12 people. The most recent eruption prior to the 9 December eruption, a short-lived eruption occurred in April 2016, though no fatalities were reported then.

Despite the volcano’s activity, it has been a popular tourist destination in recent years with numerous tours available. Reports indicate that most of the people on the island at the time of the eruption were passengers of the cruise vessel Ovation of the Seas, visiting Tauranga.

White Island’s eruption wasn’t completely unexpected. Academics have previously expressed their concerns over the suitability of the island as a tourist destination, with official reports showing that volcanic unrest has been occurring for several months prior to the disaster. In November, the New Zealand hazard monitoring site, GeoNet, reported a period of unusual volcanic activity, and raised the alert level for the island.

While relief operations are underway, GeoNet has taken its live cameras on White Island off its website. Additionally, many tour agencies that operate in the area uploaded their “dark sites” with updated contact information and details of the emergency.

During the eruption, a large plume of white smoke was visible from the mainland. Airlines in New Zealand confirmed that flight operations have not been affected at this time; however, an orange aviation colour code warning was issued due to hazardous ashfall. Additionally, a no-fly zone in the area was put in place due to the threat of further eruptions.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

-Further large eruptions cannot be ruled out in the coming hours, days and even weeks. Avoid the vicinity of White Island

-Individuals should listen for, and follow, any emergency information and alerts issued by the local authorities, as well as monitor local media for updates. The Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management website has information available here.

-While unlikely at this time, a large follow-up eruption may result in evacuations on the nearby north coast of North Island. Individuals in the immediate area are advised to have an emergency supply kit prepared with the necessary supplies should they need to evacuate at short notice.

-Effects of a volcanic eruption can be experienced many kilometres from a volcano. Individuals near the affected area are advised to be aware of the potential for ashfall; this can be a health hazard notably if suffering from pre-existing breathing difficulties. In the event of ashfall, wear respiratory masks as well as suitable clothing to protect the skin.

-An emergency operation centre has been set up at Whakatane Hospital, the closest town to the island in the Bay of Plenty. Road closures were reported in Whakatane. As such, travellers must avoid designated restricted zones.

-Airports remain open but flight operations might face delays or cancellations should further eruptions occur.

Evo Morales has resigned as the President of Bolivia on 10 November and, a day later, the ousted president accepted political asylum in Mexico and departed from the country, being transported to the airport by military helicopter. Along with the president, numerous senior officials have also resigned.

The president’s decision to step down is reported to come after the interventions of the chief of the armed forces, General Williams Kaliman. The general urged Morales to step aside in the interests of peace and stability.

Bolivia’s military commander has also ordered troops to back up police following recent clashed with Morales supporters – clashes that resulted in some 20 injuries. The supporters were following Morales call to “resist” the “dark powers” that had forced him to step down.

The unrest has resulted in disruptions to flights in recent weeks, particularly at El Alto airport in La Paz. Additionally, travel throughout the country has been made difficult by the protest.

The resignation has left a number of questions about what is next for Bolivia, with many fearing a prolonged period of unrest, uncertainty over the next president and even claims of a coup.

The president’s ousting has left the security situation in Bolivia extremely volatile and uncertain. Morales, who had been in power since 2006, had won plaudits for fighting poverty and improving Bolivia’s economy but drew controversy by defying constitutional term limits to run for a fourth term in October’s election, the initial spark of the current crisis.

The election was alleged to have been rife with “irregularities”. Indeed, an audit of the results by the OAS said it had found “clear manipulations” in the country’s voting system and that it could not verify the result of the 20 October election. The announcement coincided with General Kaliman’s call for Morales to resign.

The president’s resignation has left the country in chaos, with Morales supporters and adversaries clashing on the street in recent days and his departure failing to pacify the demonstrations. The power vacuum left by his resignation has also left numerous questions regarding the political future of the country and whether this will result in an unsolvable political crisis, with the political and military establishment fighting over power.

Unless the military and police are able to restore order, it is a very real possibility that the country may now see a period of sustained unrest. Business continuity and travel are going to have to be altered for the foreseeable future until at least fresh elections are held.

SITUATION SUMMARY

Diwali, also know as Deepavali, is the annual Hindu festival of light that celebrates the spiritual victory of good over evil, and light over dark. In the days leading up to and during the festivity, people decorate their homes with colourful decorations and oil lamps, called diyas.

Festivities last for five days and the date is calculated according to the Hindu lunar calendar. This religious festival also marks the beginning of the Hindu New Year and it usually falls between October and November; this year’s date is Sunday 27 October.

Diwali is celebrated largely in India (mainly in northern regions) where it is the most important holiday on the calendar, originating as a harvest festival. Each region has its own traditions and practices as well as deities, though, some elements are common everywhere.

In India, the most popular places to experience Diwali are Delhi, Jaipur, Amritsar, Varanasi, and Kolkata. The festival of light is also observed in Bali, Fiji, Guyana, Pakistan, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname and Trinidad & Tobago. Public events also take place in countries that have a large Indian population such as the United Kingdom and on many Caribbean islands.

SOLACE GLOBAL ANALYSIS

Although Diwali is considered peaceful and is popular among various cultures there do remain several potential risks.

The most prominent threat to travellers is petty criminality. During festivities, the large crowds allow pickpockets to  operate freely.

Environmentalist demonstrations against the tradition have occurred in the past over the amount of smog that the number of firecrackers produces. Despite this, protests are normally small in size and often cause minimal disruption, especially when compared to the actual event. Minor injuries from stray crackers have been reported over the years.

Due to the event’s high-profile nature, there is a risk that terrorist groups may target festival celebrations. While terrorist groups mainly focus attacks on the Indian government and Indian military personnel, attacks on areas frequented by westerners and religious festivals cannot be ruled out. Diwali festivities last fell victim to such attacks in 2005, attacks were also attempted and foiled in 2011.

On 23 September 2019, local media reports stated that insurgent groups from Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan were planning to target this years Diwali, these reports have not been verified by official sources at this time.

WHAT TO DO;

SITUATION SUMMARY

On 28 August 2019, the Queen of the United Kingdom approved Boris Johnson’s request for a suspension, or a prorogation, of UK parliament. The prorogue will be for 23 working days and is set to begin between 9-12 September until 14 October, four days before EU leaders are due to meet on 17 October for a final time before the Brexit date of 31 October.

Prorogation, unlike a recess which is voted on by parliament, is a decision that excludes the Houses. Parliament usually goes on recess for three weeks between September and October for the party conference season; however, there had been talk to cancel the break this year due to the urgency surrounding the Brexit deadline.

Johnson has stated that a Queen’s speech is due to take place following the suspension to outline his “very exciting agenda” in the latest update on Brexit.

However, many MPs, both pro- and anti-Brexit ones, have voiced their concern at the move which has been termed as a “constitutional outrage” and “damaging to democracy”.

SOLACE GLOBAL ANALYSIS The decision to shutdown parliament at this time is highly controversial as opponents argue that it will stop MPs being able to play their democratic part in the Brexit process, by constricting their ability to stop a so-called ‘no-deal’ Brexit; where Britain leaves the EU without a formal deal – with the majority of trade reverting to WTO rules.

Opposition MPs had announced they were due to attempt to block a no-deal Brexit using a parliamentary process. These MPs state that the prorogation is a deliberate move by Johnson to govern without parliament, an action considered dangerous within parliament. The suspension now leaves only a limited time that any such votes can take place, reducing options for those looking to block a no-deal Brexit.

Those in favour of Britain remaining a member of the EU, and even those in favour of leaving with or without a deal, have been critical. The European Parliament co-ordinator on Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt has stated “‘Taking back control’ has never looked so sinister”. Regardless, Boris Johnson has set out exactly what he promised to do when elected as leader of the Conservative Party; to deliver Brexit. And for now, that is what he intends to do.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?

WHAT TO DO:

The 2019 Rugby World Cup is set to kick off on 20 September in Japan. This is the first time the tournament will be held in Asia, and outside of the traditional heartland of the Rugby Union. For many people, this will be their first experience of Japan and while one of the safest countries in the world, its culture is vastly different. Travellers are likely to find the cultural differences and the language barrier the greatest challenge whilst visiting the country. Despite this, there are some very real risks in Japan, these almost exclusively come in the form of environmental threats. The island nation faces numerous earthquakes and typhoons; however, the country’s infrastructure is well developed and prepared for such events – making only catastrophic, and rare, events a risk to those in the country.

(Click the map to learn more about the tournament venues)

ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

Japan is a safe country, the main risk to travellers visiting stems from environmental factors. The World Cup is set to begin at the tail end of the typhoon high season. The country is also one of the most seismically active in the world. Japan also possesses a number of active volcanoes; however, the risk of these impacting travellers remains low.

TYPHOONS

On average, Japan sees eleven sizable typhoons per year, with the islands of Okinawa and Kyushu normally being the most affected. Typhoons are tropical cyclones typical of the Pacific Oceans and they are characterised by strong winds, large waves and heavy rains. The landfall of a typhoon can cause infrastructural damage, disrupt travel – particularly flights and ferries – and sometimes evacuation orders by the local emergency preparedness authorities. While there are no matches, scheduled to take place in Okinawa, three of the twelve designated world cup stadiums are in Kyushu. Keeping an eye on weather forecasts is always advisable during the typhoon season to avoid being caught unprepared.

EARTHQUAKES

Earthquakes are a common occurrence across the country. Minor quakes strike the country almost daily and result in no damage and are often barely noticeable. Major quakes also occur with a frequency unfamiliar to most of the western world and can result in damage. However, Japan is at the forefront in the field of disaster preparedness and management, due to the country being so prone to natural disasters. Most buildings and infrastructure are built in accordance to stringent regulations and utilise the latest technologies in order to prevent damage and collapse during earthquakes. Most buildings are also equipped with emergency kits that include dry food, water and medical supplies.

Japan’s advanced knowledge of earthquakes and innovative solutions in the field of emergency response were developed in the aftermath of two great disasters, the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995, the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, coupled with smaller and recurring episodes. Moreover, all Japanese citizens are trained in evacuation procedures and most of them have first aid knowledge, which facilitates the preventative and reactive operations. The Japanese government has a system of early warning alerting, which would push out a notification on all devices and televisions in case of an earthquake, tsunami or ballistic missile test.

The largest recent quake was the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. This megathrust earthquake’s epicentre was located off the coast of the Oshika Peninsula. The quake was the strongest to ever strike Japan, with a recorded magnitude of 9.1 and 7 on the Japanese Shindo (seismic intensity) scale. It was followed by a tsunami with waves of 10 meters (33 ft) in height – though waves of 40 meters were recorded in some areas. Up to 18,430 people are reported to have been killed or are still missing.

Japanese coastal areas are built to defend against tsunamis, all of which have been bolstered since 2011. As such, the majority of small tsunamis do not pose a threat to the major urban centres. However, as was the case in 2011, waves of 10 meters+ have the potential of overtopping the defences.

The island also has a number of volcanoes; however, these pose only a minor threat with the majority being dormant for the past decades.

OTHER RISKS

Japan is considered a very safe country, with crime rates among the lowest in the world. In addition to this, the Japanese law enforcement agencies have a high success rate in solving crimes that are carried out. Violent crime is also rare, although there is a significant presence of organised crime, often operating in and around entertainment establishments. However, members of criminal networks are unlikely to target foreign nationals unless provoked. Travellers should expect increased security measures and personnel during the duration of the world cup, further decreasing the risk of being a victim of violent crimes. Pickpocketing and petty theft remain the highest risk to anyone visiting Japan, particularly in large crowds and in the vicinity of tourist landmarks.

The risk of terrorism is low in Japan and, while there have been several highly publicised mass stabbings, these remain very rare.

The police in Japan have wide-ranging powers and they are lawfully allowed to hold potential criminals for up to 23 days, even for minor offences. Indeed, should you be charged with a crime, you are likely to be held, without bail, until your court date.

CULTURE

While visiting any country, it is important to be aware of cultural and religious norms and habits. The majority of people in Japan are friendly and hospitable, but they will tend to remain reserved. As such, loud and boisterous behaviour, especially in public, is uncommon. This is important to remember when the emotions of the world cup are running high in the 78th minute of a match.

Dressing conservatively is important to avoid offending locals, particularly if visiting areas considered sacred or of high historical importance.

Manners are also very important among the Japanese population, making it important to be aware of the basic rules.

Japanese people often greet each other by bowing, which is also a way to show respect. It is also customary to exchange business cards, which should be received with both hands and not immediately stored away, as that is perceived as disrespectful. During formal business dinners, keeping the cards on the table is also common.

Public displays of affection are not common in the country and it is better that visitors avoid them. Keeping phones on silent whilst on public transport is also the norm. Avoid taking calls or having loud conversations on any form of public transport.

Smoking in public and littering are frowned upon. Indeed, littering is seen as a sign of disrespect and could get you in trouble. It can also be frustrating when out and about as dustbins are few and far between; the majority of Japanese people take their garbage home with them rather than dispose of it when out. Smoking is mostly reserved for bars and pubs rather than the streets, where it is only allowed to smoke in designated areas.

LGBT RIGHTS

LGBT rights in Japan are relatively progressive by Asian standards. This is partly due to Japan’s culture and major religions not having a history of hostility towards homosexuality. The majority of Japanese people support the legalisation of same-sex marriage and the younger generation are widely supportive of LGBT rights. However, Japanese society remains inherently conservative, where public displays of affections or sexual preference are considered mostly inappropriate.

LOCAL TRAVEL

Travelling around Japan is simple once you have got used to the country’s public transportation network. For foreign nationals visiting the country, you can pre-buy Japan Rail Passes, which gives unlimited travel on all of Japan’s long-distance rail services. Be aware that due to the world cup, many trains, are likely to be fully booked, with seats pre-booked. Buying a rail pass before you arrive is highly recommended if you are planning to use the train a lot.

The country has one of the best transport infrastructures in the world with high-speed trains, extensive motorways and numerous large airports. However, it is important for those visiting for the first time, or even seasoned travellers, to be aware that the public transport system can be confusing. It is recommended that travellers schedule additional time for travel, as buying tickets and finding the right platform is likely to be challenging, particularly in large transportation hubs such as Tokyo and Osaka station. If in trouble, it is always a good idea to ask the staff, which will be able to guide you to the right destination. Trains are used by a large number of people for daily commutes, thus consider avoiding morning and evening rush hours if unsure about how to navigate the stations. Be aware that the fast trains – the shinkansen or also known as the bullet train – need a separate ticket and depart from specific platforms.

In major urban areas, navigating can take some getting used to but while signposts are in Japanese, the vast majority are also written in English. As such, those travelling for the World Cup, both for leisure and for business, should have no trouble getting from their accommodation to the venues. If uncomfortable using local trains or buses, taxis remain a safe and affordable option – just remember not to touch the car doors, as they are fully automated. Travel between cities, be it via plane, train or automobile is unlikely to present any significant risk. It is just vital you allow yourself plenty of time to navigate stations, double-check platform numbers and, where possible, simply ask for directions.

Foreigners can drive in Japan with an International Driving Permit; though, given the high quality of public transport, it is advised that you use other forms of transport.

HEALTH

Japan’s healthcare system is among the best in the world. Even hospitals in rural areas and smaller clinics are well equipped and staffed by highly trained medical professionals. However, travel insurance is a must, the cost of treatment in Japan is high and payment will be expected in full and upfront. As such, there can be delays in treatment while insurance is verified. Additionally, many doctors do not speak English, making communicating difficult.

Despite being held in autumn, the host cities will still be warm, with the exception of the northern cities of Sapporo and Kamaishi, which will be much cooler thanks to their more northern locations. Keeping hydrated and protecting yourself from the sun is important whilst travelling.

PRESCRIPTION DRUGS

The laws surrounding prescription medication in Japan is much stricter and different to those in Europe or Australasia. This includes the use of items such as Vicks Inhalers, allergy medications and medication containing Pseudoephedrine. Indeed, some over-the-counter painkillers like those containing Codeine are also illegal and foreign nationals have been detained and deported for offences.

As such, if you are travelling to Japan with prescription medication, be aware of the possible restrictions on any said medication and even if what you are taking is legal, ensure that you have your prescription from your doctor with you at all times.

There is also a zero-tolerance policy towards all drugs in Japan. The penalties for possession, the use or the trafficking of illegal narcotics can result in long jail sentences and very heavy fines.

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