Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49

Headlines From This Week

The United States Recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – In a highly controversial move, President Trump, on 06 December, announced his intention to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, signifying that the US views Jerusalem as the country’s capital (the international community views Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem as illegal). This move is expected to damage the peace process and has led to protests in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and across the Muslim world. The policy shift has been criticised by regional and global allies of the United States.
Former President Saleh Killed – Yemen’s former President was killed by Houthi rebels on 04 December, just days after making peace overtures to the Saudi-led coalition, his opponents in the country’s civil war. Saleh and his followers had allied with the Houthis in the ongoing conflict. He had been described as Yemen’s only chance for peace. His death is likely to complicate the peace process.
ELN and FARC Clashes – 13 people were killed in clashes between the militant National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, officials confirmed on 05 December. The clashes occurred close to the Ecuadorean border as ELN guerrillas sought to disarm a local farmers’ resistance group. FARC have disbanded after years of fighting an insurgency and became a legitimate political party after accords with the government came into force this year. ELN are also seeking a peace deal with the government but these clashes would appear to break the three-month ceasefire the group have with the government.
Russia Banned from 2018 Olympics – The International Olympic Committee (IOC) have banned Russia from the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea due to drug doping issues. Clean athletes will still be able to attend under a neutral flag. The presence of Russian (and Chinese) athletes at the Games decreases the likelihood of a North Korean military attack.
Fires in California – At least 200,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires spread across southern California. By 08 December, fires had been raging for five days, aided by dry and windy weather which is expected to last until 10 December. More than 57,000 hectares have been scorched across the state and 5,700 firefighters are trying to contain six large wildfires. Los Angeles county is affected by three fires while Riverside, Ventura, and San Diego counties are all subjected to one fire apiece.
Former President Kirchner Indicted – A judge in Argentina has indicted former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on treason charges over allegations that she covered up possible Iranian involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre. This move has already been met by pro-Kirchner protests in the capital.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-US Protests Planned Worldwide – Travellers are advised that the unrest in response to the US’ plan to move its Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem are unlikely to subside in the short run. Protests are expected to continue in the region and further afield. US Embassies are set to face unrest in Canada, Ireland, the UK, France, Belgium, Morocco, and elsewhere. Such protests should be avoided as violence is a possibility.
WTO Conference – The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Ministerial Conference is to take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina from 11-13 December. 5,000 WTO delegates are set to attend. Road closures and heightened security is anticipated near Puerto Madero, Centro Cultural Kirchner, and the University of Buenos Aires School of Law.
Jammu and Kashmir General Strike – ‘All Parties Hurriyat Conference’, a separatist group, has called on its supporters to engage in a Dawn to Dusk shutdown strike on 10 December. The move is in line with International Human Rights Day. A rally is due take place to the UN Military Observers’ headquarters in Srinagar. Violence is possible during this period.

Significant Dates & Events

09 December – Tanzania Independence Day
10 December – Transport strikes in Valencia, Spain
10 December – Municipal Elections in Venezuela
12 December – Jamhuri Day in Kenya
12 December – US Senate Special Election for Alabama
12 December – Potential for a 24-hour strike on RER Lines A and B in Paris
13 December – Pro-migrant rally to occur in Brussels
13 December – Saint Lucia National Day
15 December – Italian Aviation Workers to Strike

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 49 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48

Headlines From This Week

Mount Agung Erupted in Bali – The volcano at Mount Agung erupted in Bali, leading to the imposition of a 12km exclusion zone around the crater, and mass disruption to air travel due to the resulting ash cloud. Several thousand flights from Bali International Airport were cancelled, stranding travellers. A change in weather conditions has lead to a clearing of the ash cloud, and flights have since recommenced.
North Korea Launched a New ICBM – North Korea carried out a test-launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Based on its flight characteristics, Japanese and US officials suggest it has an effective range of approximately 13,000km, placing the vast majority of the USA within range. Observers are unable to judge, based on this launch, the weapon’s accuracy, payload, or ability to safely re-enter the atmosphere; all key attributes to a combat-ready rocket. This launch demonstrated the continued ineffectiveness of international sanctions on halting the North Korean nuclear weapons programme.
The Japanese Emperor Announced his Abdication – Emperor Akihito announced that he will abdicate his position on 30 April 2019, becoming the first Japanese monarch to abdicate in over 200 years. On the date of the proposed abdication, Akihito will be 85 years old. The title of Emperor will be passed to Crown Prince Naruhito, who will be 59 on the date of his succession. The role of Emperor is principally ceremonial, with all actions carried out by the Emperor requiring cabinet approval.
Honduran Election – Hondurans went to the polls for their general election on 26 November, electing their President, 128 members of Congress, and a variety of municipal positions. Protesters and police have clashed across the country as the opposition candidate lost a five point lead following a slow counting process and a computer glitch in the vote tallying system. A large number of ballot boxes reportedly arrived for counting with inconsistencies and potential evidence of tampering. Unrest is likely to persist up to, and following the announcement of the result.• Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.
Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Finnish Independence Day – 06 December marks the centenary of Finland’s independence from Russia. Celebrations officially begin mid-afternoon on 05 December, and travellers should expect disruption as festivals, parades, and public celebrations are held in most towns and cities. Considering heightened tensions with Russia in recent years, some disruptions at border stations are possible.
Nepalese Elections – The second round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Thursday 07 December, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local elections had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. Security and restrictions at border crossings with India are frequently heightened during election periods.
GCC Summit in Kuwait – Kuwait City is to host a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council on 05-06 December. Travellers should expect enhanced security measures to be in place for the duration of the summit.

Significant Dates & Events

02 December – Laos National Day, the anniversary of the Republic’s foundation
02 December – UAE National Day
03 December – First Sunday of Advent, a widely celebrated Christian religious event
03 December – Pakistan People’s Party scheduled protests in Rahin Yar Khan, Punjab
07 December – Alitalia staff set to conduct a 24 hour, nationwide strike across Italy
08 December – Feast of the Immaculate Conception, a widely celebrated Christian holiday

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 48 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

December 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – December 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The December 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47

Headlines From This Week

Houthi Rebels Threaten Maritime Traffic – Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to attack international shipping, particularly oil vessels, and those flagged to states in the Saudi-led coalition. The objective of the threat appeared to be to apply pressure on the Saudi-led coalition to raise the blockade imposed upon all Yemeni ports. In this respect, it may be seen as successful, as Saudi Arabia announced that the blockade to Yemen would be eased to permit humanitarian access.
North Korea Declared State Sponsor of Terrorism – In response to North Korea’s continued provocation, US President, Donald Trump, placed the state on the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism. President George W. Bush removed North Korea from the list in 2008. The move was met with approval by a number of regional states, including Japan, however it is likely to have raised regional tensions and increased the likelihood of a further North Korean action in response.
German Coalition Talks Broke Down – German coalition talks, seeking to form a new government for Chancellor Angela Merkel, broke down during the week. Specific details are uncertain, however key policy issues between the Greens and the Free Democratic Party appear to have prevented the two parties uniting behind Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Social Democrats have signalled they are willing to consider renewing the previous “grand coalition” with the CDU, however they have not indicated any terms at this stage. It remains probable, however, that a new election will be announced before Christmas 2017, for polling in early 2018.
Chilean Election – Chilean voters went to the polls on Sunday 19 November to elect their legislature and conduct the first round of their presidential elections. Turn-out was reported to be approximately 47 per cent, higher than expected. Low turn-out is generally perceived to benefit conservative candidates. The right-wing candidate, Pinera, came in approximately five per cent below expectations, below the 40 per cent mark required to avoid a run-off. The two most notable opposition candidates polled 43 per cent between them, and there remains a possibility that their supporters will unite to support the opposition candidate on the 17 December run-off, potentially offering a surprise victory for left-leaning parties.
Mosque Attack in North Sinai – At least 200 people were killed as insurgents launched a coordinated firearm and bomb attack on a mosque in the town of Bir al-Abed, west of al-Arish. Four vehicles carrying armed men approached the mosque during Friday prayers and attacked the worshippers. The mosque was likely targeted due to its affiliation to the mystic Sufi branch of Islam, members of which are viewed as heretics by Salafist jihadi groups such as the Islamic State. Previous attacks in the region have focused on attacking security forces.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Bosnian Republic Day – 25 November marks the national celebration of Bosnia’s foundation and is likely to be marked by festivals and political events. Issues surrounding the nation’s founding remain contentious in some areas, and travellers in the country should expect disruption in urban areas, and possibly at the Serbian border.
Nepalese Elections – The first round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Sunday 26 November, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local election had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. The second round is scheduled for 07 December.
Prophets Birthday – The Islamic festival of Milad in Nabi will be observed across the Muslim world between Thursday 30 November and Friday 01 December. Major urban areas are likely to host substantial festivals, and provision of services is likely be substantially impacted. Those seeking to travel during or immediately after the festival should ensure their arrangements are in place in advance in order to minimise delays.

Significant Dates & Events

25 November – Bosnian Republic Day
25 November – Suriname celebrates its national day
26 November – Protests planed at London’s Libyan embassy due to the ongoing refugee crisis
26 November – The first round of the Nepal
26 November – Honduran general election
28 November – Albanian independence day
30 November – Milad in Nabi Islamic holiday starts
01 December – The Maldives celebrate Qaumme Dhuvs, victory over the Portuguese
01 December – 24 hour ground crew strike at Milan International Airport

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 47 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46

Headlines From This Week

Coup in Zimbabwe – On 15 November, the military in Zimbabwe took over the running of the country. Long-time President Robert Mugabe has been put under house arrest, with reports suggesting he has refused to step aside. The coup has been peaceful and came about due to the issues of succession to the 93-year-old leader. The military moved after Mugabe sacked Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa last week, signalling that his wife Grace would be the one to take over. The situation in the country is very unclear at present.
Earthquake on Iran-Iraq Border – A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck close to the Iran-Iraq border, in Kermanshah Province, Iran on 12 November. There are differing estimates on the death toll with a figure as high as 530 reported in some media with most of the fatalities occurring in Iran. Thousands more have been injured and tens of thousands have been left homeless. The earthquake was felt as far away as Israel. Questions have been raised about the quality of buildings in the region, many of which collapsed.
End of Opposition in Cambodia – Prime Minister Hun Sen has increased his grip on power in Cambodia, after the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was banned by the Supreme Court on 16 November. 100 members of the CNRP were barred from politics for five years ‘for conspiring with foreigners to stage a revolution’. The US has already announced the suspension of financial support for the Cambodian National Election Committee ahead of the 2018 election. Further sanctions from Cambodia’s western partners should be expected but China has voiced support for the government. No significant protests have so far been reported.
Terrorism in Borno – A terror attack on the outskirts of Maiduguri in Nigeria’s Borno state led to the death of 18 people including four suicide bombers. At least 29 others have been seriously; the death toll is expected to rise. Two males and two females infiltrated the Muna Gari community. The attack has been attributed to the Islamic militant group Boko Haram.
Deadly Floods in Central Greece – At least 15 people have been killed after flash floods caused destruction to the west of Greece’s capital Athens. At least 37 others were taken to hospital. The towns of Mandra, Nea Peramos, and Megara were the most affected. Some roads faced more than a metre of water. The Greek Prime Minister declared a period of national mourning.
A North Korean Defector – A North Korean soldier was shot five times by his former comrades as he crossed the demilitarised zone to defect to South Korea. The South Korean military were put on high alert for fear of a retaliatory attack which never emerged. The identity of the defector remains unknown, but doctors have confirmed that he has ‘enormous parasites’.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Lebanon Crisis – The political crisis is ongoing in Lebanon. Despite suggesting he would be returning to Lebanon imminently, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has yet to do so. He has been invited to France by President Macron, who is seeking to mediate in the crisis. Some have suggested that this could lead to a long-term exile for Hariri. Lebanon celebrates its national day on 22 November, there is the potential for protests and demonstrations on this day.
US Remembrance Day – Authorities in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania have advised those attending Remembrance Day Parade on 18 November of a “possible threat”. Those attending have been asked not to bring large bags. There is set to be a large local, state, and federal police presence at the event.
Chile Elections – Chileans are set to elect a new president on 19 November. A run-off vote will occur in December if no candidate gains more than 50 per cent of the vote. Security is to be stepped up with 900 members of the national police force to be deployed. Delays and disruption can be expected within the vicinity of polling stations.

Significant Dates & Events

18 November – Latvian National Day 18 November – Morocco Independence Day 18 November – Oman National Day 19 November – Maldives National Day 19 November – Monaco National Day 20 November – Farmer’s association to rally in Delhi, India 21 November – Anti-austerity protests due to take place across the UK 24 November – Myanmar National Day 24 November – Sikh festival of Guru Tegh Bahadur

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 46 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Top Tips on What to Do During an Earthquake

It is estimated that as many 500,000 earthquakes occur every year with 100,000 able to be felt by humans. In certain places, minor earthquakes occur almost constantly. As the map below shows, tectonic plates are located all over the world. The most famous and impactful area for earthquakes is the so-called ‘ring of fire’ in the Pacific Ocean; about 90 per cent of all the world’s earthquakes occur in this area.

Most earthquakes are natural occurrences but human development has had an impact. The construction of dams and the impact of fracking for gas are thought to cause earthquakes or at least increase their impact.

It has been estimated that on average, there are 18 major earthquakes every year (those registering 7.0-7.9 on the Richter scale) and one great earthquake (those register 8.0 and above). Unlike volcanoes or tropical storms, scientists have found it impossible, at this point, to predict when an earthquake will occur.

What to Expect

Small to Moderate Earthquakes

Seismic movements which are lower on the Richter Scale can occur across the world, including in places like the United Kingdom, which is not on or near any tectonic plates. These earthquakes do not represent an emergency risk. When such quakes occur, you can expect:

Shaking to occur for only a few seconds.
Lights to move and some minor movement of objects to occur inside buildings.
To feel a small amount of shaking under your feet if outside.
To hear a bang if very close to the epicentre

Large Earthquakes

The impact on larger earthquakes, which includes everything from 5.0 on the Richter Scale, largely depends on where they occur and at what depth. Their impact may be felt for several minutes. However, in general when they do occur, you can expect the following.

The ground to potentially shake violently, in some cases strong enough to knock you off your feet.
To probably feel shaking followed by a sea-like rolling motion.
Buildings may sway and the earthquake is likely to cause a roaring sound.
To feel swaying if in the upper floors of a high-rise building.
Furniture and fixings may be thrown across the room, especially if unsecured, and windows may break.
It is possible that fire systems will be triggered with sprinklers and alarms activated.
You can also expect lights and power to go off.

What to do during an earthquake if you are inside

The first thing to do during an earthquake tremor is to drop to your hands and knees so the earthquake does not knock you down. You should then cover your head and neck with your arms as protection from falling debris.

You should then look for cover, if you can move safely; a sturdy table is suitable, hold on to the legs so that it stays over you to offer protection from falling objects. If this is not available, crawl away from outside walls and next to inside walls away from windows or any fixtures or furniture which could fall on you. Remember: ‘drop, cover, and hold on’

If you are in bed when the earthquake occurs you should stay in bed and cover your head and neck with a pillow unless there is something overhead that could fall on you and cause injury. At night, it is difficult to see any hazards or debris which have emerged and attempting movement in the darkness may result in further injuries.

If you are in a lift get off at the next available floor and find cover.

Stay inside, do not rush to get outside and await the end of the tremors.

What to do during an earthquake if you are outside:

If you are outside when shaking occurs, get to open space away from buildings, street lights, bridges/flyovers and overhead wires. Once in the open, you should ‘drop, cover, and hold on’. Then await the end of tremors.

If you are in a moving vehicle during an earthquake:

If driving when tremors begin, stop as quickly and safely as you can and apply the handbrake. Be aware of areas of potential landslides. Avoid stopping near buildings, trees, bridges, overpasses, and overhead wires. Once the earthquake tremors cease, proceed cautiously, avoid roads, bridges, and other infrastructure which may have been damage by the earthquake.

If you are trapped during an earthquake:

If the worse happens and you become trapped it is important to remain calm and not move about or kick up dust. If you have a phone, try to use it to call for help. If possible, try tapping on a pipe or use a whistle so rescuers can locate you. Shouting should be a final measure taken as it is important to not inhale too much dust and debris.

If you are not trapped when tremors stop:

When shaking stops, leave the building if it is safe to do so and get to an open space away from any damaged areas.

If the building is undamaged, check for the smell of gas, turn it off at the main valve. If wiring is damaged turn that off at the main switch board. Check for fires and evacuate the building if they are many or too large to safely extinguish.

Monitor local media through any means for information and instruction.

Check for any injuries and give treatment (provided you are trained to do so). Then assist with rescues if it is safe to do so.

Be prepared for a tsunami in coastal areas, learn if the area you are in is usually impacted by post-earthquake tsunamis. A strong earthquake that lasts more than 20 seconds in a tsunami zone will mean evacuation is imperative. If this is the case, once shaking has stopped, move inland and to higher ground immediately and continue to monitor for local instruction or evacuations. If you can see the waves you are still too close. Remain on high ground, tsunami waves can last up to 8 hours or longer, only return when officials say it is safe to do so.

Maintain extreme caution in post-earthquake clean-up. Do not remove heavy debris alone and remember to use appropriate clothing and tools.

Be ready for aftershocks and be prepared to ‘drop, cover, and hold on’, should they occur.

Most earthquake-related injuries are caused by collapsing walls, objects falling, or glass shattering, rather than ground vibrations directly causing injury.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45

Headlines From This Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump presently in Vietnam as part of a five-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour has resulted in substantially enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. The Japanese, Korean and Chinese visits occurred without violent issues. Disruption to travel, however, is highly likely to occur in the locations he is yet to visit. Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila are the final locations to host the President’s tour.
Typhoon Damrey – Struck Vietnam as a Category Two storm through 03 to 05 November. Extremely high rainfall led to extensive flooding, particularly in central Vietnam, with at least 106 people being killed, and approximately 200 remaining missing. Initial estimates suggest that over $330 million of damage was caused, with over 116,000 homes suffering extensive damage.
Corruption Arrests in Saudi Arabia – A new anti-corruption committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, detained approximately 200 senior officials, including senior ministers and members of the House of Saud royal family. This marked a substantial departure from the norm within the Kingdom, issues within the royal family are generally resolved out of the public eye. Two senior princes also died, one in a helicopter crash, and one in mysterious circumstances, although these deaths cannot be directly linked to the apparent purge.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Resigned – The Lebanese Prime Minister, al-Harari, resigned whilst in Saudi Arabia, potentially triggering a crisis in the precariously balanced political structure of the country. Al-Harari alleged his resignation was due to the threat of assassination. His presence in Saudi Arabia has, however, led to speculation that he may have been entangled in the Kingdom’s corruption scandal, or otherwise pressured into resignation as part of a broader Saudi power-play in the region. There is a realistic probability that sectarian unrest in Lebanon will follow.
Liberian Elections Delayed – the Liberian Supreme Court delayed the second round of the Liberian presidential elections due to allegations of malpractice by the third-placed candidate. The basis of these allegations has yet to be established; international observers raised no issues. There is a possibility of unrest between the supporters of the three major parties. A new poll date has yet to be confirmed.
Catalan Officials Charged with Rebellion – Six senior former members of the Catalan regional government have been charged by the Spanish government with rebellion and sedition. The allegations centre to their activities in support of the illegal Catalan independence referendum. The former Catalan prime minister, Charles Puigdemont, remains in Brussels with an outstanding extradition request. Protests can be expected across Catalonia for the duration of court proceedings.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ASEAN Summit – The Association of South East Asian Nations is scheduled to meet between 13-15 November in Manila, the Philippines. The dates of the summit have been declared “non-working days” in Manila and the surrounding provinces. Extensive disruption should be expected to services, although major banks will remain open across the Metro Manila area. Substantially enhanced security measures and road closures should be expected.
Russia-Turkey Summit – Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are scheduled to conduct a summit in Sochi, Russia, concerning future economic cooperation, and military activities in Syria. The outcome of this summit is likely to have a substantial impact in the balance of power between the various military and paramilitary groups operating in Iraq and Syria.

Significant Dates & Events

11 November – Angolan independence day
12 November – Equatorial Guinea to hold general elections
12 November – Slovenian presidential elections
12 November – Anti-racism rally to be held in central Montreal
13 November – Mykonos Airport, Greece, to close until 29 November due to scheduled maintenance
13 November – Somaliland regional elections
14 November – Irish railway workers to conduct a 24 hour strike
15 November – Republic Day in northern Cyprus
15 November – Sikh festival, Guru Nanak’s birthday celebration
16 November – General election to be held in Tonga
17 November – Pakistan People’s Party due to hold protests in central Punjab

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 45 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44

Headlines From The Week

Manhattan Terror Attack – Eight people were killed after an Uzbek immigrant drove a truck down a cycle path in Manhattan, New York City. He then hit a school bus before exiting the vehicle holding a pellet gun and a paintball gun; he was subsequently shot, injured, and arrested by police. The incident has been treated as a terror attack, with the attacker reportedly inspired by Islamic State. Almost a dozen others were injured.
Eritrea Clashes – Security forces clashed with student protestors in the Eritrean capital of Asmara. 28 people were allegedly killed and more than 100 injured on 07 November. These figures cannot be verified as they came from an anti-government activist group, though the US embassy did confirm reports of gunfire. Eritrea remains a hermit state, which many have called ‘the North Korea of Africa’.
Ethiopia – At least 19 people died in two separate incidents across Ethiopia in a series of incidents that demonstrate rising ethnic tensions in the nation. A sugar protest in Oromia state lead to 11 fatalities and 245 arrests, with Oromia-Amhara tensions being a contributing factor. In western Gumuz state, a further eight were killed and 11 arrested after ethnic Amhara and Gumuz groups engaged in violence following a personal feud.
North Korea warnings – The South Korean intelligence agency reported that the North was likely to recommence the refinement of nuclear materials before the end of 2017, and that facilities were prepared for another nuclear test with little to no warning. There is a realistic possibility that North Korea will carry out a further nuclear test during President Trump’s tour of Asia, or in the build up to the South Korean Winter Olympics in early 2018. Seismologists have detected a notable increase in instability in the North Korean nuclear test area following their most recent test, which could be notably worsened by further testing.
India power plant – At least 29 people were killed following an explosion at the National Thermal Power Corporation’s site in Uttar Pradesh. Preliminary investigations indicate that the blast was the result of lax safety and operations procedures, not of intentional sabotage.
France State of Emergency – Two years after its initial implementation, France has rescinded its State of Emergency due to the threat of terrorism. A series of new legislation has enacted some powers from the State of Emergency into routine legal and law enforcement practice, in order to better deal with the ongoing threat.
Kenya Elections – The incumbent President, Uhuru Kenyatta, was formally declared the winner of the 26 October poll, with approximately 98 per cent of the vote after the principal opposition group opted to boycott the election. Opposition leaders have called for ongoing civil disobedience.

What To Look Out For Next Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump is scheduled to complete a six-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour is highly likely to attract an enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. Disruption to travel, therefore, is highly likely. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila will host the President throughout this period.
International Cube Day – “Anonymous for the Voiceless’, an animal, environment, and health rights groups have organised ‘International Cube Day’ in 186 cities around the world to demonstrate for their causes. It is unclear how much disruption their demonstrations will cause; their Facebook event pages do not suggest that more than a dozen attendees will be at each of the ‘cubes’, however the number of events to be held is significant.
Tropical Storm Damrey – Flooding is expected across Vietnam and Thailand as Tropical Storm Damrey crosses from west to east across the region. Areas struck by the storm are likely to receive between 150mm and 300mm of rain. This level of rainfall is highly likely to lead to landslides and protracted disruption.

Significant Dates & Event

04 November – Far right group Forza Nuova group plans to protest in Rome.
04 November – Government-authorised ultra-nationalist march planned in southern Moscow.
05 November – Pakistan People’s Party rally in Punjab’s Layyah.
05 November – Million Mask March in London’s Trafalgar Square.
06 November – Asia Pacific Economic Conference in Da Nang, Vietnam.
06 November – Sicily’s Vincenzo Florio Airport to close for five days.
07 November – Nationwide Italian taxi-drivers protest due to new licensing rules.
07 November – Liberian presidential election run-off.
09 November – Falkland Island elections. Protests possible in Buenos Aires.
09 November – Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Brazil.
10 November – Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Manila.

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 44 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43

Headlines From This Week

Kenya Presidential Elections – The re-run of the August 2017 elections was held on 26 October. The vote was marred by widespread violence, a boycott by the opposition NASA and its leader Raila Odinga, and a turnout of around 35 per cent. President Kenyatta looks set to win this latest poll, but it is unclear if a further vote will be forced to take place. Violence, however, is expected to continue in NASA strongholds especially.
Piracy near Bonny Island – On 24 October, six crew members were kidnapped from a Liberia-flagged, Germanowned container vessel in the Gulf of Guinea. Eight attackers approached the vessel in a black speedboat prior to boarding the ship and seizing crew. The remaining 12 crew members navigated the ship to safer waters after the pirates departed.
Niger Police Attacked on Mali Border – Gunmen attacked and killed 13 Niger police officers near the Mali border. The attack occurred close to where four US soldiers were killed in early October 2017. The militants were reportedly heavily armed on pickup trucks and motorcycles, crossing from Mali into Niger to conduct their attack. There are several Islamic militant groups active in the area. This incident demonstrates the instability in this region.
Temer Avoids Corruption Trial – Brazil’s embattled president has avoided a corruption trial after securing enough votes in the lower house of Congress. He has been accused of obstructing justice and racketeering. Temer faced a similar vote in August of this year. It is possible that this will lead to unrest on the streets of Brazil with Temer currently enduring the lowest recorded approval ratings in Brazilian history.
The Battle for Catalonia – The political battle between Madrid and the Catalan region escalated this week. The regional government in Catalonia voted to declare independence 70-10 in a vote boycotted by the opposition. This move is unlikely to be ratified by the Spanish Constitutional Court or be recognised by any international government. In Madrid, the Senate voted 214 votes to 47 to approve measures allowing Spain to impose direct rule over the autonomous region. Further protests are likely and may turn violent.
Turkey-Iraq Border – The Turkish and Iraqi governments have finalised an agreement to open a second border crossing in order to bypass the Kurdish Regional Government, which presently controls the official route between the two countries. This highlights that both parties consider the issue of Kurdish independence and control of the border as a notable and ongoing threat to their national relations. The move will also deprive the Kurdish region of the leverage and income opportunities provided by control of the trade route.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Morocco Protests – The Hirak committee has called for demonstrations across Morocco on 28 October 2017. This latest wave of protest began after a fishmonger was killed by a rubbish truck last year. Unrest is most prevalent in the turbulent Al-Hoceima and Rif regions, in the north of the country. Violence has been reported in previous protests, with clashes between protestors and security personnel a strong possibility.
Tropical Storm Selma – Another tropical storm looks set to hit the Americas. Selma has formed off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica and is expected to move inland over El Salvador and Guatemala over the weekend. While the storm is unlikely to strengthen further, it is expected to bring flash flooding, mudslides, and gale-force winds. The impact of Selma is already being felt in the region.
Pro-Palestine Protests – A series of pro-Palestine protests are due to take place next week. This includes one outside of the Israeli Embassy in Pretoria in South Africa, in Ireland outside of the British Embassy (both on 02 November), and in London, United Kingdom on 04 November.

Significant Dates & Events

28 October – Opposition rally planned in Baku, Azerbaijan
28 October – Czech Republic marks its independence from Austria-Hungary
28 October – South Korean trade unions plan to rally
28 October – Taipei, Taiwan hosts a LGBT pride parade
29 October – Turkey celebrates its Republic Day
01 November – Algeria celebrates its Revolution Day
01 November – Christian holiday of All Saints Day
01 November – Antigua and Barbuda Independence Day
03 November – Dominica Independence Day
03 November – Panama celebrates Separation Day
03 November – Military drills planned in Sharjah, UAE

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 43 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 43 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

20 Oct 17: Vessel Attack 49nm Southeast of Brass, Nigeria. The vessel was attacked in approximate position 3°55’0N, 6°39’0E at 1834UTC. One black boat travelling around 25knots approached the vessel and fired shots. Embarked Navy team returned fire. The boat followed for 25 mins before moving away. 21 Oct 17: Vessel Attack 36nm Southwest of Bonny Island. The MV was attacked in approximate position 3°47’0N, 7°9’0 E at 0600UTC. Eight armed pirates boarded the vessel. Six crew members were kidnapped, including the Master and Chief Officer. 23 Oct 17: Supply Vessel Attacked off Bonny, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 4°0’0N, 6°49’2E at 0955UTC. Fifteen pirates on two speed boats approached and opened fire. The pirates were reported to be armed with AK-47 rifles and a general purpose machine guns (GPMG). Armed security personnel onboard the Nigerian Navy escort vessel returned fire. Some pirates suffered injuries. The supply vessel and crew are safe. 25 Oct 17: Tanker Attacked Southwest of Bonny Island. The MV was attacked in approximate position 3°35’5N, 6°49’2E at 2005UTC, 52nm southwest. Two armed pirates boarded the vessel but the crew mustered in the citadel. The crew were reported safe

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

24 Oct 17: Iranian Dhow Attacked 41nm Southeast of Socotra. Pirates are suspected of attacking the vessel in approximate position 11°50’0N, 54°35’0E at 0748UTC. Iranian coast guard requested assistance from the US Navy; three crew from the dhow were injured and treated by the US warship when it later arrived to the scene.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

23 Oct 17: ASEAN Defense Ministers Agree to Increase Counter-Terrorism Measures. In light of the announcement that Marawi has been liberated from Islamic extremist fighters, ministers reiterated their commitment to strengthening joint air and maritime patrols already in place to counter the threat of terrorism in their common maritime borders. 25 Oct 17: Tanker Boarded in Cilacap Anchorage, Indonesia. Four armed robbers boarded the vessel in approximate position 7°44’1S, 109°4’0E at 2020UTC. Duty crew noticed the robbers on the main deck. The alarm was raised and all crew mustered. The robbers escaped with stolen ships properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 43 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 43 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

November 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – November 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The November 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42

Headlines From The Week

Chinese Communist Party Congress – Over 2,000 senior delegates from China’s ruling Communist Party gathered for their five-yearly Party Congress. This has been marked by a significant increase in security measures in Beijing. All signs so far point to a solidification of power around President Xi, with no discernible signs of dissent which could represent potential for unrest.
Kirkuk Seized by Iraqi Army – Iraqi federal troops, supported by Iranian-backed Shia militias, retook Kirkuk from the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Only one brief exchange of fire was reported during the initial phase of the operation, Kurdish forces otherwise withdrew peacefully. On 20 October 2017, further fighting was reported in the Alton Kupri area, north of the city. The cause of this incident remains unclear. Up to 100,000 ethnically Kurdish civilians fled the city as the Peshmerga withdrew, fearing ethnic violence from the Shia militias. This exodus is likely to cause disruption in other Kurdish cities, particularly Erbil. The Iraqi army has been ordered not advance further than the pre- 2003 border of the Kurdish Autonomous Region.
Somali Hotel Attack – A truck-borne suicide bomb struck a hotel near the foreign ministry in Mogadishu, killing over 300 people, and wounding a further 400. Officials indicate that the attack was carried out by the Islamist insurgent group, Al Shabaab, although the group has not claimed responsibility for the attack. It is likely that the attacker sought to strike the foreign ministry building, and may not have intended to inflict vast civilian casualties.
Extensive Wildfires in Portugal and Spain – Large wildfires have spread throughout northern Portugal and Spain. They are believed to have been intentionally set by arsonists and exacerbated by an abnormally dry summer. Present estimates place the death-toll for this set of fires at 44. Travel in the affected areas has been heavily disrupted and extensive evacuations were implemented where the fires threatened inhabited areas.
Mersin IED Attack – An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated against a bus carrying Turkish police officers in Mersin on 17 October, injuring 17 police officers and one civilian. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but officials have indicated that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgent group are most likely to have carried out the attack.
Church Attack and Bank Robbery in Sinai – Islamist insurgents opened fire on security personnel near the Church of Saint George in El Arish, Egypt on 16 October. A second group then attacked a nearby bank, whilst security forces were distracted, and emptied the safe. Officials reported that seven people were killed and 15 wounded during the combined attack.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kenya Unrest – Kenya’s President Kenyatta has insisted that the presidential election will continue to go ahead on 26 October 2017, despite his main opponent pulling out of the race. Political rallies and protests have continued across the country, both to demonstrate support for the two main parties, and to protest against perceived irregularities in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. This unrest is highly likely to continue and escalate up to, and beyond, the election date with the main opposition party calling for protests. Protests in Kenya regularly turn violent.
Thai Royal Funeral – Bangkok is to host the five-day long state funeral for King Bhumibol from 25 to 29 October, following more than a year of official mourning. The event is being replicated across the country by 85 scaleddown versions of the ceremony, and is likely to attract high attendance from Thai citizens. Provision of services is highly likely to be disrupted throughout the country.
Tropical storm Lan – The Japanese mainland is likely to be struck by Tropical Storm Lan between 22 and 23 October. The storm is presently a category-two storm; however, it is likely to strengthen to at least category-three before striking Japan. Travellers should comply with the instructions of local authorities.

Significant Dates & Events

22 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Austin, Texas
22 October – Curfew in place from 0800 – 1700 due to census. All travellers must comply with the curfew
22 October – Argentine legislative elections
24 October – Women’s rights protest in Santiago, Chile
24 October – Zambia’s Independence Day
25 October – Royal funeral ceremonies begin, Bangkok, Thailand
27 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Mexico City
27 October – Turkmenistan’s Independence Day
28 October – Trade union protests in Seoul, South Korea

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 42 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41

Headlines From This Week

California Wildfires – 31 people have now been confirmed dead after wildfires swept through northern California. Hundreds remain missing and there are at least 22 active fires at present. More than 3,500 buildings and 68,000 hectares of land have been destroyed, with 8,000 firefighters tackling the various blazes. Officials have warned that conditions will worsen.
Tensions in Kurdistan – Friction between the government in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan continue to rise after the recent independence referendum. Kurdish Peshmerga military forces have claimed that the Iraqi army and its militia allies are preparing to attack Kirkuk, which falls outside of their semi-autonomous zone but is held by Kurdish forces at present. Tensions continue to rise in the region, with Syria, Turkey, and Iran, countries with significant Kurdish populations, watching on closely. Any war between the Kurds and Baghdad could have significant negative consequences for stability in the region.
Kenya Turmoil – It has been a tumultuous week in Kenya and Kenyan politics. Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition in Kenya (NASA), announced plans to pull out of this month’s re-run elections due to issues with the election commission. The impact on the election itself is unclear. Odinga’s supporters have taken to the streets in protest. So much so that the Kenya government has banned protests in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Protestors have ignored this instruction and further violent clashes between police and demonstrators have occurred and are expected to continue.
DRC Elections – The election commission of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that there would be no elections in the country before 2019. The commission claims that more time is needed to adequately prepare. This delay raises concerns that there will be a surge in violence in the already unstable country; activists have already called for resistance in response to the delays.
US-Turkey Diplomatic Issues – Relations between Turkey and the United States, both key members of NATO, seem to be at an all-time low. The US reacted to the arrest of a member of its consular staff by freezing its nonimmigrant visa services in Turkey. The US fears that arrests of its citizens and personnel in Turkey are being made in order to force the US to extradite Fetullah Gulen. Gulen and his followers have been accused of orchestrating the coup attempt last year.
Vietnam Flooding – Flooding and landslides have killed at least 54 people in Vietnam since a tropical depression hit northern and central areas at the beginning of this week. Another 39 people are missing. Infrastructural damage has hampered rescue attempts and travel conditions have become hazardous.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Tropical Storm Khanun – Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern China late on 15 October or early the next day, with Hainan and Guangdong provinces most at threat. The storm is expected to intensify over the South China Sea before hitting Vietnam, potentially causing further damage to areas already dealing with widespread flooding.
Diwali – The festival of Diwali, the ‘festival of lights’, occurs on 19 October, with celebrations lasting for five days. Diwali is observed by Hindus, Sikhs, Newar Buddhists, and Jains, most notably in the Indian subcontinent but also across the world. The festival is an official holiday in Fiji, Guyana, India, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Sindh province in Pakistan.
Elections in Kyrgyzstan – Kyrgyzstan is set for the most democratic election of all countries in the Central Asian region, where the president may only stand for one term. The president is elected using a two-round system, the first being on 15 October. There are tensions between Kyrgyz and Uzbek ethnic groups and it is possible that this election will lay such tensions bare. A state of emergency was issued in Osh during 2010 after clashes between the two groups.

Significant Dates & Events

14 October – World Ironman Championship, Hawaii
15 October – Anti-White Supremacy Rally in Toronto, Canada
15 October – Austrian legislative elections
15 October – Canton Fair begins in Guangzhou, China
15 October – Regional elections take place in Venezuela
16 October – Protests planned outside health ministry in Rabat, Morocco
19 October – CGT Union members in France set to take part in a 24-hour strike
20 October – Sikh Festival celebrating Installation of the Sri Guru Granth Sahib Ji
20-21 October – Czech legislative elections

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 41 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40

Headlines From This Week

Catalan Independence – The final tally from the vote on 01 October vote on Catalan independence has not been released. Organisers claim that 90 per cent voted for independence with a turnout of 42 per cent. Clashes have been reported across Catalonia between protestors and police. The Spanish Constitutional Court has suspended the Catalan parliamentary session planned for 09 October, in which Catalan leaders were expected to vote on independence.
Las vegas Attack – Just after 2200 hours on 02 October, a gunman fired down at a country music festival from the Mandalay Bay Hotel, Las Vegas. At least 59 people were killed and more than 500 injured; the deadliest mass shooting event in the nation’s history. The motive of the attacker, who reportedly ended his own life, is unclear.
Marseille Attack – Two women were stabbed and killed at a train station in Marseille, France on 01 October. The attacker, who is currently being investigated for links to Islamic State, was shot dead at the scene. Under France’s state of emergency, soldiers are deployed at key sights throughout the country including transport hubs.
Unrest in Anglophone Cameroon – This week has seen further deadly clashes between protestors and security forces in English-speaking areas of Cameroon. Amnesty International has accused Cameroonian security forces of killing 17 secessionist protestors. Many of the deaths occurred on 1 October as police opened fire on a crowd calling for independence. The internet has been blocked in the region due to unrest.
The Plague in Madagascar – The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified more than 114 cases of the plague in Madagascar since the outbreak was first identified in early August 2017. At least 20 fatalities have been reported and this is expected to rise. Plague is endemic to Madagascar, with 400 cases reported, on average, each year. The outbreak has led to public gatherings being banned in Antananarivo, the capital city.
Suicide Attack in Balochistan – At least 20 people were killed after a suicide attack at a shrine in Jhal Magsi in Balochistan on 05 October. A further 30 have been reported injured in this unstable region of Pakistan. The attacker detonated his suicide vest after a security guard had prevented him from entering the shrine.
Tropical Storm Nate – At least 22 people have been killed in the Central American countries of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras after Tropical Storm Nate made landfall. Nate has caused heavy rains, landslides, and floods; states of emergency have been implemented. Hundreds of thousands have been left without power or running water. The storm is expected to head north towards the US Gulf Coast and may strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall, approximately in the evening of 7 October, in the US.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kenya Opposition Plan Weekly Protests – Starting from 06 October, opposition coalition, the National Super Alliance (NASA), has organised weekly protests against the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Violence has been reported and further violent unrest is expected in the coming weeks in the lead up to the rearranged presidential elections on 26 October. Violence is likely to be most prominent outside of IEBC offices, in Nairobi slums, and Kisumu; the latter two contain a large number of NASA supporters.
Protests in Russia – At least 80 cities in Russia are due to host protests to mark the birthday of President Putin. The protests, organised by opposition leader Alexei Navalny, are due to demand an end to Putin’s rule and genuine democracy in Russia. Clashes between protestors and police are likely; Navalny and a number of his supporters have been attacked in recent months.
Liberia Elections – On 10 October, Liberians will go to the polls in presidential and legislative elections. Security is expected to be tight. The last day to enter the country by air is 08 October. The campaign has remained relatively nonviolent as the country prepares for its transfer of power from on elected president to another since 1944.

Significant Dates & Events

07 October – 16th anniversary of the US-led war in Afghanistan
08 October – 2017 Hong Kong Cyclothon
08 October – Anti-secessionist rally to be held in Barcelona
09-11 October – French labour unions call for another strike • 09 October – Uganda Independence Day
09 October – Lawmakers from Federally Administered Tribal Areas to protest in Islamabad
10 October – Fiji Independence Day
10 October – Commemoration of the founding of the Republic of China in Taiwan
12 October – Fiesta Nacional de España, Spain’s national day
12 October – Equatorial Guinea National Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 40 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

October 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – October 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The October 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38

Headlines From This Week

UN General Assembly – The annual General Debate of the UN General Assembly began on 19 September and will finish on 25 September. President Trump was the most high-profile speaker at the UN where he continued much of the rhetoric which has become a hallmark of his presidency to date. His two primary targets were Iran and North Korea. He threatened to use US military might to ‘totally destroy’ North Korea unless Pyeongyang fell in line; something that shocked many world leaders in the room. He also called the Iran nuclear deal into question. This drew only reluctant support from European allies.
Mexico Earthquake – A powerful 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck Puebla, about 150km south of Mexico City on 19 September. At present, more than 270 fatalities have been confirmed as dozens of buildings collapsed or suffered significant damage in Mexico’s capital. Many more are still believed to be trapped and the death toll is expected to rise. This is the deadliest quake to hit Mexico since 1985, when about 10,000 fatalities were reported. This was the second powerful quake in less than two weeks.
Catalan Independence – The debate over the planned independence referendum for the Catalan region of Spain reached boiling point this week after at least 12 Catalan officials were arrested by Spanish police. This was part of a crackdown on planning for the independence referendum which, at present, will still be held on 1 October 2017. The government of Spain opposes Catalonian independence (and the vote), with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy insisting the referendum will not go ahead. Polls indicate about 49 per cent of Catalans are against independence, with 41 per cent in favour.
Hurricane Maria – Maria is the second major hurricane in the Caribbean this month (after Irma), and one of the strongest to hit Puerto Rico in the last 90 years. An estimated 15 people were killed on the island, in addition to streets flooded, power knocked out, and homes destroyed. 14 deaths were also reported on the island of Dominica. A number of other islands have also been impacted and death tolls are likely to increase as search and rescue operations continue.
Kenya Unrest – Protests were reported outside Kenya’s Supreme Court in Nairobi this week, after President Kenyatta criticised the court for committing a “coup” on the election. The re-run has been delayed and will now be held on 26 October 2017, although there continue to be doubts whether the voting process will be reformed in time. Political tensions remain high in Kenya, raising concerns of a return to violent clashes in the country.
Eastern Congo Flooding – Floods in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have killed 10 people, with another 92 still missing. Emergency services have been dispatched to the town of Bihambwe to search for the missing.

What To Look Out For Next Week

German Elections – Federal elections will be held on 24 September to determine if Chancellor Angela Merkel, will remain for another four years. Although initial projections will be available on Sunday, a definitive result may only be reached by Tuesday. Polls suggest Merkel, with the Christian Democratic Union, will remain in power with approximately 36 per cent of the vote. Their closest rival, the Social Democratic Party is expected to receive 22 per cent of the vote. Berlin will also host its annual marathon on 24 September, making travel very challenging.
UC Berkley ‘Free Speech Week’ – Far-right, controversial activists are due to speak at UC Berkeley’s ‘Free Speech Week’ between 24-27 September. In the past, fearing violence, speeches by far-right figures have been cancelled. Recent events have demonstrated political and racial friction in the US (including at Charlottesville). It is likely that this event will bring protestors and the potential for clashes between rival groups.
Kurdish Independence Referendum – There are significant concerns regarding the impact of the referendum planned to be held on 25 September 2017. The result of the vote is likely to be yes, but will not lead to an immediate secession of Kurdistan from Iraq. The UN Security Council has warned of the destabilising impact the referendum may have on the region; the referendum may divide Iraq and spark a wider regional conflict. The Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has stated the referendum is unconstitutional.

Significant Dates & Events

23 September – Saudi Arabia National Day
24 September – German election and Berlin Marathon
24 September – Guinea-Bissau National Day
24 September – Pro-independence rallies to be held in Catalonia
25 September – Anti-corruption protests due to take place in Slovakia
25 September – Further anti-labour law strikes in France
28 September – Iceland Elections
29 September – Formula One weekend begins in Malaysia

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.