Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 22
Headlines From This Week
- Terror in Belgium – Islamic State has claimed responsibility for a terror attack which left two police officers and a bystander dead in the Belgian city of Liege on 29 May. The attacker was reportedly radicalised in prison, from where he had been temporarily released on 28 May.
- Armed Attack in Saudi Arabia – A police officer was killed by two assailants who then stole his weapons in the Saudi Arabian city of Taif on 31 May. The assailants subsequently attacked a National Guard facility, injuring several. One of the attackers was wounded and arrested, while the other escaped.
- First Storm of Atlantic Hurricane Season – Tropical Storm Alberto, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall in the Caribbean and the United States this week. At least eight people were killed including four in Cuba and four in North Carolina, USA. Flooding conditions have been reported across the United States in Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, the Carolinas, West Virginia and Illinois. Four North Carolina Dams are close to rupturing and are being assessed by state authorities.
- Brazil Strikes – Brazil has been beset by strikes over the past two weeks which have caused significant disruption. Truck drivers began their strike on 20 May and were joined by oil workers on 30 June. The strikes and related protests led to a significantly reduced supply of fuel, food, and essential items nationwide, as well as significant travel disruption. The economy, still emerging from a devastating recession, is set to be hard hit by these strikes.
- Government Formed in Italy – Months after inconclusive election results, a government has been formed in Italy. The government will be led by the independent Giuseppe Conte with ministries headed by officials from the Five Star Movement and the League, both are populist, Eurosceptic parties. There are fears of what this could mean for the EU as Italy is the bloc’s fourth largest economy.
- Jihadist Attack in Mozambique – At least 10 people have been beheaded by Islamic militants in the northern Mozambique region of Cabo Delgado. The attack, which took place on 29 May, appears to have targeted those involved in extractive industries. Islamists groups have conducted sporadic attacks over the past year.
- Political Change in Spain – Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the People’s Party lost a vote of no-confidence on 01 June brought about after corruption allegations. He has been replaced by Socialist Party leader Pedro Sanchez, but political instability remains as no party has a majority in parliament.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Tiananmen Square Commemorations – Activists are set to gather in Taipei, Hong Kong, and other locations on 04 June to commemorate 29 years since protesters in Tiananmen Square, Beijing were brutally crushed by Chinese security forces. Chinese censors and authorities are kept on alert for any signs of commemorations; expect higher than usual levels of security within the vicinity of Tiananmen Square.
- G7 Summit – Charlevoix, Canada plays host to the 44th Summit of the Group of Seven (G7) nations on 08-09 June 2018. Disruption is probable and serious unrest possible due to planned protests. All heads of state/government of the G7 nations are set to attend, as well as EU leaders and especially invited guests.
- Naksa and International Quds Day – 05 June marks the “day of the setback” or Naksa which commemorates the displacement of Palestinians after Israel’s victory in 1967 Six-Day War. Clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian protesters are common on this day and all border regions should be avoided. International Quds day, a day of solidarity with the Palestinian people, takes place on 08 June. Rallies should be expected around the world in the days surrounding this date.
- Peru Strike – Truck and coach drivers are set to strike in Peru from 05 June after talks between unions and the government broke down. The strike does not have an end date at this time. Travellers are advised to take the necessary provisions for travel and ensure that they have plenty of non-perishable food prepared as any strike may make the availability of foodstuffs limited.
- Madrid Metro Strikes – After striking on 01 June, Madrid metro workers have announced plans to strike on 04, 08, and 15 June. The strikes will all begin at 06:05 to last until 10:15 and then restart at 13:20 and finish at 21:30. A minimum of 69 per cent of services will be running on the morning strike and 55 percent on the afternoon strike. Travellers should note there is the potential for protests alongside the strikes.
- New York Gun Control March – Saturday 02 June is anticipated to see large numbers of demonstrators rallying in support of further gun control measures following a recent series of school shootings, and inaction from state and federal legislators. The protestors have announced their intent to rally at the Korean War Veterans’ Memorial in Brooklyn, before moving to Foley Square in Manhattan. Gun control remains an emotive topic across the United States, and the event may attract counter-protests from pro-Second Amendment groups. Violence remains unlikely, but some disruption should be anticipated.
Significant Dates and Events
- 02 June – Brunei – Nuzul Al-Quran
- 02 June – Macedonia (FYROM) – Opposition plan protest in Skopje
- 02 June – Sweden – Stockholm Marathon
- 02 June – Mali – Opposition rally in Bamako
- 02 June – Spain – Pro-Spanish language group to protest in Valencia
- 02 June – United Kingdom – Marriage equality march in Belfast
- 02 June – Israel – Anti-Netanyahu rally in Tel Aviv
- 02 June – United States – Rally for hurricane victims in New York City
- 02 June – Italy – Republic Day
- 02 June – Jordan – Protest planned over income tax law
- 03 June – Uganda – Martyrs’ Day
- 03 June – Slovenia – Legislative Elections
- 04 June – Mexico – Teaching union to launch indefinite strike
- 4-5 June – Bolivia – University strike, El Alto
- 05 June – France – Activists plan rally against the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
- 05 June – Zimbabwe – Opposition plans nationwide protest
- 06 June – Chile – Student march planned in Santiago
- 06 June – Iran – Martyrdom of Imam Ali
- 08 June – France – RATP workers plan rally in Paris
- 09 June – Uganda – National Heroes Day
- 10 June – Congo – Reconciliation Day
- 10 June – Portugal – National Day
- 11-12 June – Bangladesh – Night of Destiny (national holiday)
- 11 June – Colombia – Sacred Heart (national holiday)
- 11 June – Russia – National Day
- 12 June – Philippines – Independence Day
- 12-13 June – Portugal – Rail workers’ strike
- 13 June – South Korea – Local elections
- 14 June – Eid al-Fitr – National holiday in many Muslim-majority countries.
Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 21
Headlines From This Week
- Bombay Bhel Bombing – At least 15 people were wounded, three critically, when an improvised explosive device was detonated in an Indian restaurant in Mississauga, Canada, in the evening of 24 May. Two males, believed to have built and detonated the device, remain wanted by police. No links to terror or criminal groups has yet been confirmed, however the city has experienced a significant rise in hate crimes over the past two years.
- Sandinista Clashes in Leon – Members of Nicaraguan Sandinista groups clashed with students staging a sit-in protest in Leon. At least 59 people were reported wounded during the violence. This marked the most recent development in the ongoing violence between supporters of the Ortega regime and a diverse mix of anti-government groups which has stretched on since mid-April. A Church-sponsored dialogue between the two sides also broke down on 24 May; violence and unrest appear likely to continue.
- Armed Clashes and Kidnappings in Nigeria – Nigeria experienced a series of armed clashes over the past week, with unidentified gunmen clashing with security forces and attacking civilians in both Logo and Kaduna. In addition, on 20 May, at least 47 people were reported kidnapped on the highway between Birnin-Gwari and Kano. Despite Nigeria’s ongoing issues with the Boko Haram insurgency, these attacks have occurred in regions in which the group is not generally active. It appears likely that the incidents are the result of tribal tensions caused by friction between nomadic groups and settled communities.
- Singapore Summit Cancelled – US President Trump withdrew from the proposed summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, scheduled to be held in Singapore on 12 June. The withdrawal appears to have been due to recent disclosures that China and North Korea have been engaged in significant talks prior to the summit, potentially in order to establish a unified stance against the US-South Korean alliance. This announcement followed North Korea’s highly publicised demolition of part of its nuclear test facility, although the destruction was not overseen by weapons experts.
- Indian Ocean Cyclones – The Indian Ocean has experienced two significant cyclones during the last week, with Mekuna presently headed north for Salalah on the Omani coast, whilst Sagar struck Djibouti on 19 May, having moved through the Gulf of Aden. These storms have caused significant disruption to air and maritime traffic across the region, with Salalah airport remaining closed since 24 May. Cyclone Sagar’s landfall in Somaliland and Djibouti led to widespread damage and over 50 confirmed deaths, due primarily to widespread flash flooding.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Anti-Macron Protests – Protests against French President Emmanuel Macron’s policies are due to be held across a number of major cities on 26 May. The protests are being carried out by a loose coalition of opposition and industry groups opposed to Macron’s sweeping reforms to state industries and labour policy. Protests related to this movement have previously turned violent, and police may use forceful measures to restore order.
- AfD Protests – The German far-right Alternative fur Deutschland party is scheduled to hold a demonstration in Berlin on 27 May. Anti-fascist groups intend to launch counter-protests with several thousand people, and 2,000 police officers have been assigned to secure the protests. The AfD are due to rally at Berlin central station at midday, before marching to the Brandenburg Gate. With such large crowds expected, and an array of disparate groups participating, isolated instances of violence are likely, despite the large police presence. Widespread violence, however, remains unlikely. Despite this, travellers are advised to avoid the area if possible.
- Colombian Presidential Elections – The first round of the Colombian presidential election is due to take place on 27 May. If no single candidate wins an out-right majority, a second round will be held on 17 June. At present, of the six candidates contesting the vote, Ivan Duque is leading with 35 per cent in most polls, 10 per cent ahead of his closest rival. It appears unlikely, however, that he will secure a first-round win. In this case, the second-round outcome is less certain, as it remains unclear how those who supported discarded candidates in the first round will vote.
- Armenian Republic Day – Armenia will celebrate Republic Day on 28 May, an event typically marked with fireworks, concerts, and parades to celebrate the country’s founding in 1918. The event this year is likely to lead to heightened levels of disruption as both the centenary of the nation’s foundation, and also due to the recent bout of political unrest, which essentially led to a bloodless revolution. Although unrest appears to have significantly reduced, there remains a possibility that violence may occur among large groups of people celebrating under the influence of alcohol.
- French Open – The French Open tennis tournament is due to begin on 27 May and continue until 10 July. The event is held in the Stade Roland-Garros in Paris and is likely to lead to travel disruption throughout the surrounding area due to an influx of spectators. Enhanced security measures likely to be deployed to any significant sporting event.
Significant Dates and Events
- 26 May – Iceland – Municipal Elections
- 25-27 May – Monaco – Formula One weekend
- 26 May – Ukraine – UEFA Champion’s League Final, Kiev
- 26 May – Georgia – Day of First Republic
- 26 May – Italy – Air and rail workers to strike in Milan
- 26 May – Albania – Anti-government protests due in Tirana
- 26 May – Madagascar – Pro-government rallies planned in Antananarivo
- 28 May – Azerbaijan – Republic Day
- 28 May – Ethiopia – Downfall of the Derg – national holiday
- 28 May – USA – Memorial Day
- 29 May – Indonesia – Buddha’s birthday
- 29 May – Malaysia – Wesak Day
- 29 May – Nigeria – Democracy Day
- 30 May – Anguilla – Anguilla national day
- 30 May – Trinidad and Tobago – Indian Arrival Day, national holiday
- 30–31 May – Greece – Bus workers to strike in Athens
- 30 May – Nicaragua – “Mother’s of April” group seek to march in Managua
- 31 May – Brunei – Armed Forces Day
- 31 May – Togo – Opposition groups plan sit-ins in Lome
- 31 May – Italy – Diamond League athletics to be hosted in Rome
- 01 June – Bahamas – Labour Day
- 01 June – Indonesia – Pancasila Day
- 01 June – Kenya – Madaraka Day
- 01 June – Samoa – Independence Day
- 02 June – Brunei – Nuzul Al-Quran
- 02 June – Italy – Republic Day
- 04 June – Hong Kong – Tiananmen vigil to be held in Victoria Park
- 04 June – Mexico – Teaching union to launch indefinite strike
Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 20
Headlines From This Week
- Gaza Unrest – At least 62 people were killed by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) when violent clashes erupted on the Israel-Gaza border as the relocated US Embassy opened in Jerusalem on 14 July. Tensions were already heightened as Palestinians commemorate ‘Nakba’, or ‘catastrophe’ of 70 years of the Israeli state on the same date. IDF troops have been accused of being overly aggressive towards protesters, with the use of live ammunition. Further clashes are likely throughout Ramadan.
- Terror Attack in France – Two people, including the attacker, were killed after a suspected terror attack in Paris’s Opera district. Several others were injured in the stabbing attack on the evening of 12 May 2018. Islamic State claimed that one of its “soldiers” carried out the attack. The attacker was believed to have been born in Chechnya, a restive, Muslim majority region of Russia, before moving to France.
- Multiple Bombings in Indonesia – On the morning of 13 May, Islamist militants attacked three churches in Surabaya, Indonesia’s second city. A later attack occurred the following morning outside a police station, just south of the city. In total, at least 26 people were killed, including 13 of the suspected bombers; the attackers were reportedly from two families and included children. The attacks have been described as the most coordinated terror events in the country’s history. Indonesian prosecutors are seeking the death sentence for the cleric accused of planning the attacks from jail.
- Korea Complications – This week saw a cooling of relations on the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang broke off high-level talks with Seoul due to joint US-South Korea military exercises, a speech made by a North Korean defector at the Seoul National Assembly, and the proposal that North Korea could follow the ‘Libya Model’. This proposal by National Security Advisor John Bolton, suggests that denuclearisation and the lifting of sanctions could eventually lead to the overthrow of the North Korean regime as it did in Libya. President Trump has denied this aim but it is clear that Pyongyang is seeking to extract concessions from South Korea and the US.
- Evacuations in Colombia – Tens of thousands of people have been ordered to evacuate their homes after heavy floods at Hidroituango dam on the river Cuaca. Flooding at the partially complete dam, Colombia’s largest hydroelectric project, had already displaced hundreds before evacuation orders were issued. Colombia’s army, police, and disaster management agency have been dispatched to the site in the north-western Antioquia province. At present no casualties have been reported.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Venezuela Elections – Venezuela is set to go to the polls on 20 May 2018. Elections were initially scheduled for December 2018 but were then moved to 22 April before being pushed back to the 20 May. The incumbent President Maduro is widely expected to win either legitimately or through fraudulent means. Many opposition figures and parties have been barred from running against him, while others have decided to boycott the vote. Many of the populous are expected to abstain from the vote, assisting President Maduro. It is unclear if popular, political unrest will reach the levels seen in Venezuela in 2014 and 2017 as voter apathy is high.
- Africa Day – An annual commemoration of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) (now the African Union), is set to take place on 25 May. The OAU was founded on 25 May 1963. The day is celebrated with a public holiday in many African nations including Zimbabwe and Ghana. Celebrations may stretch over a number of days in certain locations, travellers should follow local media to understand how they may be impacted by events.
- UEFA Champions League Final – The final of the world’s premier club football competition is set to be held at 1845UTC on 26 May 2018 in Kiev, Ukraine. Liverpool from the United Kingdom and Real Madrid from Spain are set to face each other. Security for the match is set to be tight, with Ukrainian police looking to prevent any potential terror attacks or clashes between fans, as have previously been seen at European competition fixtures this year.
- Constitutional Referendum in Ireland – Irish voters will go to the polls on 25 May 2018 for a proposed amendment to the Irish constitution which would permit the Oireachtas (parliament) to legislate on the legalisation of abortion. At present, the ‘yes’ vote is expected to win with a double-digit lead in recent polls. The two largest parties in Ireland, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, officially remain neutral but the Fine Gael Prime Minister Leo Varadkar is publicly supporting a ‘yes’ vote.
- Further Rail Disruption in France – Domestic, Eurostar, and Thalys rail services face disruptions on 18-19 May and 23-24 May due to further strikes by French rail workers. Delays and cancellations are to be expected on these days. These are the latest set of strikes which have been ongoing for more than a month. Trains running on high-speed lines (TGVs), the Transilien network (Greater Paris region), TER networks (regional trains), and Intercités (inter-city) networks will all be affected, with only one out of four trains operating on some lines. Additional rail strikes will take place on 28-29 May;2, 3, 7, 8, 12, 13, 17, 18, 22, 23, 27, and 28 June.
Significant Dates and Events
- 19 May – Turkey – Ataturk Commemoration and Youth and Sports Day
- 19-21 May – Judaism – Shavuot begins
- 19 May – United Kingdom – English and Scottish FA Cup Finals
- 19 May – Nicaragua – Opposition Marches Planned
- 20 May – Cameroon – National Day
- 20 May – Christianity – Whit Sunday (Pentecost)
- 20 May – Timor-Leste – Independence Restoration Day
- 20 May – Cambodia – Day of Remembrance
- 21 May – Canada – Victoria Day
- 21 May – Cayman Islands – Discovery Day
- 21 May – Chile – Navy Day
- 21 May – Montenegro – Independence Day
- 22 May – Yemen – National Unity Day
- 23 May – Macedonia – Vlach’s National Day
- 24 May – Belize – Sovereign’s Day
- 24 May – Bulgaria and Macedonia – Saints Cyril and Methodius Day
- 24 May – Ecuador – Battle of Pichincha Day
- 24 May – Eritrea – Independence Day
- 24 May – Barbados – General Election
- 25 May – Argentina – Anniversary of 1810 Revolution
- 25 May – Bermuda – Bermuda Day
- 25 May – Bolivia – Sucre Local Festival
- 25 May – Jordan – Independence Day
- 26 May – Iceland – Municipal Elections
- 25-27 May – Monaco – Formula One weekend
- 26 May – Ukraine – UEFA Champion’s League Final, Kiev
- 26 May – Georgia – Day of First Republic
- 26 May – Italy – Air and rail workers to strike in Milan
- 27 May – Colombia – Presidential Election
- 27 May – 10 June – France – French Open Tennis
Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 18
Headlines From This Week
- Dust Storms in India – At least 125 fatalities have been reported after dust storms hit northern India, notably Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. High-speed winds and lightning have brought down buildings and led to dozens of injuries. Dust storms are expected to continue, and the death toll is predicted to rise.
- Terror Attack in Tripoli – On 02 May, Islamic State militants attacked Libya’s electoral commission headquarters in Tripoli. At least 12 people have been confirmed dead as gunmen and suicide bombers attacked while officials registered voters for elections that it is scheduled to be held this year.
- Dozens Dead in Boko Haram Attack – Reports suggest that 60 people were killed in a twin suicide attacks on a mosque in Mubi, Adamawa state while afternoon prayer was being held. Dozens more were injured in the Boko Haram attack. Violence by the terror group has killed around 20,000 people since 2009.
- 17 Dead in Mali Islamist Attack – At least 17 people were killed after Islamist militants attacked two villages in Menaka region, Mali on 01 May. The local affiliate of Islamic state has been blamed for the attack which targeted members of the Taureg community. This incident is a further example of Mali’s instability at this time.
- Morocco Cuts Ties with Iran – On 02 May, Morocco severed diplomatic relations with Iran after reporting evidence of their support for rebels in the disputed Western Sahara region. Morocco claims that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group has provided training and financial support to Polisario Front independence fighters. This is further evidence of the battle lines being drawn in Middle East and North Africa.
- Terror Attacks in Afghanistan – Jihadists launched a series of deadly attacks across the country after the Afghan Taliban announced its annual spring offensive. On 30 April, a coordinated double suicide bombing killed at least 25 people, ten of whom were journalists. The initial suicide bombing near the NATO headquarters and US Embassy was followed 20 minutes later as another attack targeted first responders. Dozens of other terror incidents have occurred across the country this week.
- Evacuations in Hawaii – Mandatory evacuations have been issued in areas of the island of Hawaii after Kilauea volcano erupted, spewing lava into a residential area on 03 May. At present 1,700 people of Leilani Estates are affected by the evacuation order but this may increase depending on the activity of the volcano which is unpredictable at this time, according to officials. More than 6300 hectares have been closed off to the public due to volcanic activity.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Malaysia General Election – Malaysians are set to go to the polls to elect a new parliament on 09 May. The 2013 vote was met with cases of violence, including an improvised explosive device at a rally for the ruling party. Opposition parties also criticised the fairness of the election claiming that the ruling party enjoyed an unfair advantage, with opposition rallies disrupted and internet speeds slowed down for those critical of the government.
- Giro d’Italia Begins – The annual tour of Italy begins on 04 May. The first stage takes place in Jerusalem with two further race days in Israel before the race reaches Italy on 08 May. The final stage takes place in Rome on 27 May. Travel disruption should be expected during this period.
- Lebanon Legislative Elections – Elections are set to occur on 06 May after years of delays. The political system has historically been unstable, and this looks set to continue. Prime Minister Saad Hariri recently resigned before retracting his resignation. Religious and ethnic traditions influence the political system. There is the potential for unrest or terror incidents, especially given regional tensions and active terror groups.
- Iraq Elections – Parliamentary elections are due to be held on 12 May 2018. The vote is being held against the backdrop of a defeat of Islamic State in Iraq. However, ethnic strife, criminality, and terrorism continue to blight the country’s security profile. It is also unclear what involvement Iraqi Kurdistan, which voted for independence in late 2017, will have in the election. In 2014, as members of the security forces voted, six polling stations were hit by suicide bombers with at least 27 deaths recorded. Violent unrest and terror attacks are highly likely in the election period.
- Anti-Macron Protests – On 05 May, protesters will take to the streets of Paris and Lyon to voice opposition to President Macron and the French government. In Paris, demonstrators are expected to rally from 1200hrs at Place de l’Opéra, before marching to Place de la Bastille. Protesters in Lyon will gather at 1400hrs at Place des Terreau. Security is set to stepped up as violence occurred at 01 May protests and 109 people were arrested. Macron has so far been reluctant to make any concessions to continuing protesters.
- Unrest to Continue in Israel – Yom Yerushalayim or Jerusalem Day on 12-13 May is an Israeli national holiday which celebrates the establishment of Israeli control over the city after the June 1967 Six-Day War. This celebration, with the planned opening of the US Embassy in Jerusalem on 14 May, means that violent unrest is set to continue.
Significant Dates and Events
- 04-20 May – Denmark – World Ice Hockey Championships
- 05 May – Ethiopia – Patriots’ Victory Day
- 05 May – Israel – Anti-government protests in Tel Aviv
- 05 May – Peru – Anti-abortion rally to be held in Lima
- 05 May – Ireland – Pro-Palestinian rally planned in Dublin
- 05 May – Guyana – Arrival Day
- 05 May – United Kingdom – Pro-independence rally in Glasgow
- 05 May – Kazakhstan – Constitution Day
- 05 May – United States – Kentucky Derby
- 05 May – Japan – Constitution Memorial Day and Children’s Day
- 05 May – Kyrgyzstan – Constitution Day
- 05 May – Mexico – Cinco de Mayo (Victory Over French, 1867)
- 05 May – Spain – Nationwide protests over pension reform
- 05-07 May – France – Transport strikes affecting Marseille Province Airport
- 06 May – Russia – Left Front activists to rally in Moscow
- 06 May – Canada – Toronto Marathon
- 06 May – Bulgaria – George’s Day
- 06 May – Tunisia – Municipal Elections
- 06 May – Thailand – Environmental activists to protest in Chiang Mai
- 06 May – United States – Anti-National Rifle Association rally in Dallas, Texas
- 07 May – Kazakhstan – Defender of the Fatherland Day
- 08 May – Georgia – St Andrew’s Day
- 08 May – Turkmenistan – National Heroes Commemoration Day
- 08 May – Italy – National air traffic control strike
- 08-09 May – Various – Victory in Europe Day
- 08-19 May – France – Cannes Film Festival
- 09 May – Kosovo – Europe Day
- 09 May – Uzbekistan – Day of Remembrance of the Victims of Political Repressions
- 10 May – Various – Christian festival of the Ascension
- 11-13 May – Spain – Formula One weekend in Barcelona
- 12 May – Timor-Leste – General election
Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 17
Headlines From This Week
- Ramming Attack in Toronto – On 23 April, a lone individual killed ten people, and left a further 15 wounded, when he crashed a hired van through pedestrians in Toronto. A disproportionate number of victims were female. The attacker had an extensive history of mental health and learning difficulties, in addition to a discharge from the Canadian army 16 days into training. Present evidence suggests that the attacker was self-radicalised based on active participation in a range of alternative and misogynistic online communities.
- Nicaraguan Protests – Anti-government protests, triggered by proposed changes to social security measures, expanded and widened even after the government submitted to initial demands. Tens of thousands continued to protest daily in Managua, now apparently focused on breaking President Ortega’s 30-year monopoly on power. Violence occurred frequently as pro-government counter protesters and police sought to quell the unrest, and residents near the protests sought to defend their properties. Unrest is highly likely to continue.
- Kenya Flood Risk – Severe rains in western Kenya have led to widespread flooding, forcing approximately 200,000 people to evacuate their homes. Key highways have been submerged, hindering emergency responses. Numerous landslides have been reported. The rainfall was sufficient that two dams near Mount Kenya, the Masinga and Kamburu, are at risk of failure. Significant populations down-river from them have been advised to evacuate to high ground.
- Madagascar Protests – Madagascar has seen a series of opposition-led protests against the Government’s attempt to implement new electoral laws which are likely to bar a number of candidates from the upcoming presidential election. At present, opposition leaders remain steadfast in their refusal to re-enter negotiations and the government has relied on security forces to disperse protests. At least two people have been killed, and tear gas has frequently been employed to scatter crowds.
- Greek Ultranationalists beat Migrants – Supporters of Greek far-right political groups clashed with a crowd of migrants in the main square of Mytilene on Lesbos overnight on 20 April. The migrants had been peacefully protesting the poor living standards in official government-run refugee camps, and persistent delays in the processing of asylum claims. Over 30 people were hospitalised following the clash, which involved thrown bricks and flares; and police detained over 120 people before evacuating the migrants back to an official camp.
- Leaders of North and South Korea Met in South Korea – President Kim became the first North Korean leader since the war to cross the Demarcation line into South Korea during a diplomatic meeting with the South’s President Moon. The meeting, on 27 April, resulted in a declaration that the two states would seek complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and a phased reduction in conventional arms. North Korea has routinely discarded earlier treaties; this meeting goes toward setting the stage for the meeting between Kim and US President Trump before the end of June 2018.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Mayday or Labour Day – Known by several names, depending on region, most Western and former-Soviet states hold a public holiday in early May. The specific date of the celebration may vary from country to country, however travellers should expect disruption to travel caused by rallies, parades, or protests which typically accompany the celebrations. The date’s affiliation with labour movements in many countries may lead to strike action or industrial disputes around these dates. Monitoring of local media is recommended in order to minimise disruption.
- Rallies for former President in Seoul – Supporters of the ousted South Korean President Park are due to hold rallies in Seoul on 28 April. These rallies are likely to be extensive as Park’s conservative party also directly opposes the foreign policy priorities of the governing Democratic Party, which have come to a head with the recent face-to-face meetings with the North Korean Leader, Kim Jong-Un, and South Korean President Moon. Previous protests by the Conservative Party resulted in thousands of protesters obstructing the streets of Seoul and a series of violent clashes with riot police which left at least one person dead, and many in hospital.
- Saleh al-Sammad’s Funeral in Sanaa – The funeral of Saleh al-Sammad, the leader of the Houthi rebel’s Political Council, is due to be held in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, which is presently under rebel control. The Houthi group have previously been known to launch rocket, drone, and mortar attacks against Saudi assets in response to attacks on their territory or personnel. The killing of such a prominent figure in their organisation by a Saudi airstrike is likely to elicit a similar response. Saudi-flagged vessels in the Red Sea, or major cities in Saudi Arabia may be directly targeted with missiles during or immediately after the funeral.
- Indian National Congress Rally in New Delhi – The Indian National Congress (INC) opposition party has scheduled a national rally in New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan. The INC is affiliated with a wide number of trade and labour groups, which it intends to leverage to create maximum attendance at the rally. The chosen venue has a capacity of approximately 100,000 people, however estimates of crowd size range from 30,000 to 60,000. Significant travel disruption in the immediate area of the rally should be expected. Although the INC has no intention of inciting violence, increasingly polarised national politics means that isolated clashes with counter protesters are probable.
- More Protests Likely in Armenia – Talks between the Armenian government and the de-facto leader of the recent protest broke down when the acting prime minister allegedly refused to meet directly with the opposition leader. The Armenian Parliament is due to select its new Prime Minister on 01 May through an internal ballot; opposition leaders have renounced this in favour of a new general election, provided it were certified as free of the voting discrepancies reported in previous polls. Earlier protests saw small numbers of troops joining the demonstrators, however as the protests continue, there remains a realistic probability that violent clashes may occur.
Significant Dates and Events
- 27 April to 08 May – Thailand – Disruption at Phuket Airport due to maintenance work
- 28 April – Afghanistan – Mujahideen Victory Day
- 28 April – Ukraine – Memorial marches to the World War Two-era “Galica” division planned in Lviv
- 28 April – Gabon – Legislative Elections
- 28 April – Barbados – National Heroes Day
- 28 April – Italy – Sardinia’s Day
- 29 April – Japan – Showa Day
- 30 April – Mexico – Teachers to commence a 72 hour strike and protest action
- 30 April – Sri Lanka – Vesak Full Moon Poya Holiday
- 30 April – Vietnam – Reunification Day
- 01 May – Various – Mayday or Labour Day, frequently a public holiday
- 01 May – Marshall Islands – Constitution Day
- 01 May – Poland – National airline workers due to strike
- 01 May – Denmark – Anti-fascist groups to rally in Copenhagen
- 01 May – Greece – Trade unions to rally in Athens
- 01 May – Bangladesh – BNP trade union affiliates to rally in Dhaka
- 02 May – Iran – Imam Mahdi’s birthday, national holiday
- 02 May – Bangladesh & India – Shab e-Barat
- 03 May – Poland – Constitution Day
- 03 May – Japan – Constitution Memorial Day
- 03 May – Cambodia – Royal Ploughing Ceremony, national holiday
- 04 May – Japan – Greenery Day, national holiday.
- 04 May – Latvia – Declaration of Independence Day
- 04 May – Namibia – Cassinga Day
- 04-20 May – Denmark – World Ice Hockey Championships
- 05 May – Ethiopia – Patriots’ Victory Day
- 05 May – Guyana – Arrival Day
- 05 May – Kazakhstan – Constitution Day
- 05 May – USA – Kentucky Derby
- 05 May – Czechia – March planned in Prague supporting Marijuana legalisation
- 06 May – Russia – Left Front activists to rally in Moscow
- 06 May – Canada – Toronto Marathon
Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 16
Headlines From This Week
- US Attacks Syrian Government Targets – On 14 April 2018, the United States, with the support of France and the United Kingdom, launched a missile attack on Syrian government targets. The attack was ostensibly in response to a chemical attack on civilians in Douma, east of Damascus, believed to have been conducted by the Syrian government. This attack is likely to have significant implications for global and regional relations, further damaging the relationship between the West and Russia.
- Protests in Armenia – Protests broke out on 13 April in Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, in response to parliament’s decision to appoint former President Serzh Sargysan as prime minister. Due to significant constitutional reform in 2015, the position of prime minister has become more significant than the presidency. Thousands have taken to the streets and dozens have required hospitalisation. Further protests are planned.
- Pompeo Visits Kim Jong-un – It was revealed this week that President Trump’s nominee to take over as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, visited Kim Jong-un in North Korea to lay the groundwork for a summit between the US and North Korea. According to South Korea’s President Moon, Kim has dropped his longstanding demand for US forces to be removed from the Peninsula in exchange for denuclearisation.
- Labour Unrest in France – Unions have continued their disruptive protests in France in opposition to planned reforms by President Macron. Scuffles were reported in a number of locations but largely remained non-violent. Dates for further four-day strikes by railway workers from April to June have been released. Attendance at this week’s rallies were down compared to previous stoppages in April.
- Deadly Attack in Timbuktu – 15 Islamist militants were killed after attacking a United Nations military base in Timbuktu, Mali. The attack, on 14 April, led to the death of one UN peacekeeper with seven others wounded as well as two civilians. The attackers reportedly infiltrated the base dressed in UN uniforms.
- President Erdogan Calls Snap Polls – Turkey’s next general election has been moved forward by around 18 months after Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced snap elections on 18 April. The next general election will take place on 24 June. The elections will be the first since a referendum in 2017 gave the presidency new, sweeping powers. Turkey is still in a state of emergency which was implemented in July 2016 in response to a failed military coup.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Anzac Day – Anzac Day 2018 will be observed on 25 April and marks the contribution of servicemen and women from Australia and New Zealand. The national day of remembrance is also observed in the Cook Islands, Niue, Pitcairn Islands, and Tonga. Commemorative events are also set to take place in Gallipoli in Turkey and Villers-Bretonneux in France. Travellers should expect enhanced security measures around these events.
- Earth Day 2018 – 2018’s Earth Day is set to take place on 22 April 2018. Rallies will be held across the globe, for the 48th anniversary of the event, with organisers predicting as many as one billion people could be involved in events in more than 192 countries and territories. The largest events are set to take place in the United States. For more, see https://www.earthday.org/ or social media sites.
- Elections in Paraguay – Paraguayans are due to elect a new president, legislature, and local representatives on 22 April 2018. Incumbent President Horacio Cartes has announced he will not run again. Previously, there has been known to be political violence conducted against members of the press and political opponents, due to a close relationship between politicians and organised crime. Observers judged the 2013 election to be fair.
- Hitler’s Birthday – 20 April 2018 marks Adolf Hitler’s birthday. This day is often commemorated by far-right, Neo-Nazi marches around the world. A notable rally is set to take place in the town of Newnan in Georgia, USA on 20 to 21 April. This rally is expected to be greeted by a substantial security provision and counter rallies, with significant potential for violence. Another Neo-Nazi event is taking place in Ostritz in Germany. Similar conditions should be expected at both events.
- Unrest in Togo Continues – Opposition groups have called for further protests in Togo between 23 and 27 April. Among other things, protesters are demanding a return to the 1992 constitution. Dates and locations of protests have not been released. Reports suggest that in the 11-14 April wave of protests, one person was killed and 174 more were wounded. Expect heightened security measures in Lomé especially.
- National Assembly Elections in Gabon – The members of Gabon’s National Assembly are due to be elected on 28 April. Elections were previously planned for December 2016 and July 2017 but were postponed due to a lack of funds, and to further enable political dialogue. After the presidential elections in August 2016, widespread protests occurred. Supporters of opposition leader, Jean Ping, clashed with police believing that they had achieved victory. At least five people were killed and more than 1,000 arrested. During the unrest, authorities blocked the internet in Libreville. Further unrest is likely around this election.
Significant Dates and Events
- 21 April – Brazil – Tiradentes Day
- 21 April – Spain – Copa del Rey Football Final in Madrid
- 21 April – Ghana – Anti-US protest planned in Tamale
- 21 April – Hungary – Anti-government protest in Budapest
- 21 April – Israel – Anti-corruption march in Tel Aviv
- 21 April – New Zealand – Nurses to rally in Palmerston
- 21 April – Madagascar – Opposition protest to be held in Antananarivo
- 22 to 27 April – Senegal – Saint Louis International Jazz Festival
- 22 April – United Kingdom – London Marathon
- 22 April – Chile – Nationwide No + AFP marches
- 23 April – United Kingdom – St George’s Day (England)
- 23 April – Spain – Castile and León Community Day
- 23 April – Turkey – National Sovereignty and Children’s Day
- 23 April – Namibia – Taxi drivers in Windhoek plan to strike
- 23 April – India – DMK activists to rally across Tamil Nadu
- 24 April – Armenia – Genocide Memorial Day
- 24 April – Niger – Concord Day
- 25 April – Costa Rica – Union leaders plan general strike
- 25 April – Italy – Liberation Day
- 25 April – Egypt – Sinai Liberation Day
- 25 April – North Korea – Military Foundation Day
- 25 April – Portugal – Freedom Day
- 26 April – Tanzania – Union Day
- 27 April – Denmark – General Prayer Day
- 27 April – Netherlands – King’s Birthday
- 27 April – Slovenia – Resistance Day
- 27 April – South Africa – Freedom Day
- 27 April – Togo – Independence Day
- 27 April – Finland – National Veteran’s Day
- 27 April – Sierra Leone – Independence Day
- 27 to 29 April – Azerbaijan – Formula one race weekend (road closures to occur in Baku)
- 27 April to 08 May – Thailand – Disruption at Phuket Airport due to maintenance work
Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 15
Headlines From This Week
- Tensions Rise in Syria – International rhetoric on planned actions in Syria have heated up this week after a suspected chemical attack by the Syrian government on the city of Duma on 07 April; at least 40 fatalities were reported as a result of the attack. The US (and its allies) have vowed to respond to the chemical attack as it did in 2017. Russia, Syria’s closest ally, has warned that any US attack on Syria could lead to open conflict between the two countries. Airlines are avoiding Syrian airspace due to the fears of a missile strike by the US.
- UN Mission Clashes in Bangui – The UN peacekeeping mission to the Central African Republic were involved in a series of clashes in the capital Bangui this week. UN forces were conducting operations in PK5, a Muslim area of the predominantly Christian city, when clashes occurred. One Rwandan UN soldier was killed, and eight others were wounded. Nine people in PK5 were killed. This led to hundreds of protesters outside the UN headquarters in the city, where they also laid the bodies of those killed.
- Nawaz Sharif Given Lifetime Political Ban – Former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, has been disqualified from holding public office in the country for life. Sharif was dismissed from office last year over corruption allegations. He had hoped to make a political comeback in time for the general elections in July.
- Police Officers Killed in Antioquia, Colombia – Eight police officers were killed after an explosives attack in the village of El Tomate, San Pedro de Uraba, Antioquia Department. No group has claimed responsibility, but the most likely culprits are the Gulf Clan, a criminal drug gang who are active in the region. The group act as a paramilitary force in many places and appear to have benefited from the security vacuum left behind from the disbanding of the FARC rebel group.
- Tropical Cyclone Keni Hits Fiji – Fiji has been struck by a second tropical cyclone in just over a week. Kaduva has borne the brunt of most of the damage, with winds wiping out homes, uprooting trees, and capsizing boats. At the height of the storm, more than 6,000 people sheltered into evacuation centres. No fatalities were reported. Keni is now heading south but is unlikely to make landfall on New Zealand.
- Security Situations in Germany – Security forces thwarted an attempted attack at the Berlin half-marathon on 08 April 2018. Six people were detained over plans to attack runners with knives after German authorities were given a tip-off from a foreign intelligence service. The arrests came just a day after what transpired to be a non-terror vehicle ramming attack in Münster which killed two people and injured at least 20 more.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Yom Ha’atzmaut – Israel will celebrate its Independence Day or Yom Ha’atzmaut on 19 April. Travellers can expect travel disruption in Israel and in other locations with significant Jewish populations. Palestinian activists have vowed to protest the day. Violent clashes have been ongoing on the Gaza-Israel border since 30 March 2018. Reports suggest that there have been at least 34 Palestinian deaths and 3,000 injuries during this period.
- Referendum in Guatemala – On 15 April, Guatemalans will be given the opportunity to vote in a referendum on whether the government should request the International Court of Justice finally resolve the territorial dispute between itself and Belize. It is possible that this vote could lead to some disruption in Guatemala, but unrest is unlikely to be aimed at the government. There is also potential for clashes on the Guatemala-Belize border.
- Handover of Power in Cuba – For the first time since before 1959, the Caribbean island of Cuba is set to be led by a non-Castro as Raul Castro stands down as president on 19 April. While his successor is not assured, it is expected to be the 57-year-old Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel. It is as yet unclear how the change of leadership will impact Cuba’s economic policies or the future of Havana-Washington relations.
- Arab League Summit in Riyadh – The 2018 Arab League Summit is due to be held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on 15 April. The Summit was delayed from March after it clashed with the Egyptian presidential elections. The issue of Palestine is set to be high on the agenda, while ongoing relations with Qatar are not. Travellers in the Saudi capital can expect high levels of security as regional leaders head to the city.
- Funeral Service for Winne Mandela – Winnie Mandela, the ex-wife of Nelson Mandela, is due to be buried on 14 April at Fourways Memorial Park in Craigavon, Johannesburg. There are planned road closures in place for the funeral procession of the former civil rights leader from 1230 until 1430. Reports suggest that there may be protests en route by residents unhappy with a stalled development plan.
- Isra and Mi’raj 2018 – Known as the Prophet’s Ascension, this Islamic festival is celebrated in a series of Muslim-majority countries between 13 and 15 April. The event is likely to cause travel and business disruptions in these locations, including the closure of government offices.
- Anniversary of the Eldorado dos Carajas Massacre – 17 April marks the anniversary of the Eldorado dos Carajas Massacre. On this day in 1996, 19 farmers were killed by military police in Pará state, after they invaded a private ranch. The anniversary often leads to violent protests; large gatherings around this date should be avoided.
Significant Dates and Events
- 14 April – United Kingdom – Grand National Horse Racing at Aintree
- 14 April – Israel – Anti-corruption rally in Tel Aviv
- 14-16 April – Pakistan – Nurses to strike in Peshawar
- 14 April – Germany – Far-right rally planned in Cologne
- 14 April – Italy – Formula E event in Rome
- 14 April – Honduras – Pan America Day
- 15 April – Slovakia – Protests in Humenne and Bratislava
- 15 April – North Korea – Celebration of Kim Il Sung’s birthday
- 15 April – Montenegro – Presidential elections
- 15 April – Uruguay – Montevideo marathon
- 16 April – United Kingdom – Commonwealth Head of State meeting in London
- 16 April – Puerto Rico – Jose de Diego’s birthday
- 16 April – United States – Boston Marathon
- 16 April – Moldova – Memorial/Parents’ Day
- 16-17 April – Portugal – Train staff to strike
- 17 April – American Samoa – Flag Day
- 17 April – Syria – Evacuation Day (Syrian national day)
- 17 April – Pakistan – Tribal leaders to rally in Islamabad
- 17 April – Venezuela – Healthcare workers to strike
- 17 April – Belarus – Radonista (Commemoration Day)
- 17 April – Gabon – Women’s Day
- 17 April – Iraq – Food and Agriculture Day
- 18 April – Zimbabwe – Independence Day
- 19 April – Nepal – Bisket Jartra Festival (New Year)
- 19 April – Venezuela – Independence Declaration Day
- 20 April – United Kingdom – Docklands Light Railway staff to strike
- 21 April – United States – Neo-Nazi group to rally in Newnan, Georgia
- 21 April – Brazil – Tiradentes Day
- 22 April – Paraguay – Presidential, legislative, and local elections
- 23 April – United Kingdom – St George’s Day (England)
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 14
Headlines From This Week
- YouTube Shooting – On Tuesday 03 April, Nasim Aghdam opened fire with a handgun at the headquarters of YouTube in San Francisco, wounding three people before killing herself. Nasim was a content-creator who had become distressed with YouTube after a change on the website allegedly reduced the views of her content and negatively impacted her income. The three people she wounded in the attack were not previously known to her and appear to have been selected at random.
- Boko Haram Attacked Maiduguri – Insurgents belonging to the Islamic State affiliate Boko Haram launched an attack against the Nigerian city of Maiduguri in Borno State. The attack resulted in the deaths of at least 18 people, with over 80 suffering serious injuries. The attack was focussed on Nigerian security forces situated around the city’s perimeter, however most of the casualties inflicted through the hour-long battle were civilians. The Nigerian government is reportedly seeking to engage in peace talks with Boko Haram.
- Tropical Cyclone Josie – Fiji was struck by the category one cyclone last weekend, resulting in at least four fatalities as extreme winds and rain battered the pacific nation. Infrastructure damage remained relatively limited, however disruption to travel and service provision can be expected across the island over the next few weeks. Although the storm has been downgraded, potentially dangerous winds remain forecast.
- Talks Advance in Korea – A spate of diplomatic activity on the Korean peninsula has led to widespread statements of support from powers allied to both North and South. China in particular has expressed hope that the upcoming talks between the USA, South and North Korea will make concrete progress towards deescalating tensions on the peninsula.
- Road Obstructions in Albania – Albania has seen widespread protests obstructing highways in response to the installation of a new toll road connecting Albania and Kosovo but routed through a relatively deprived area of the country. The protests led to significant delays to road travel and instances of vandalism, with several toll-booths smashed and set alight. No casualties were officially reported, however dozens were detained.
- Former Brazilian President Imprisoned – Luis da Silva was handed a custodial sentence as a result of a wide-ranging and ongoing anti-corruption investigation. Supporters of ‘Lula’ maintain that the charges are politically motivated, with the intention of preventing the highly popular politician from running for re-election as president. His defence team intend to continue to appeal the sentence, and there remains a realistic probability that the court’s decision will lead to continued civil unrest.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Songkran Festival – The Thai New Year’s festival is held between 13-15 April and marks the beginning of the Thai solar year. Songkran is the longest national holiday in Thailand, and as such locals often capitalise on the opportunity to travel home for extended family gatherings. Major travel services will continue to function, but travellers should expect them to be significantly busier than normal. Hotels and other accommodation are also likely to be uncharacteristically busy; travellers should ensure all accommodation and travel is booked and confirmed before arrival in Thailand over this period.
- Summit of the Americas – Peru is to host the eighth Summit of the Americas in Lima over 13-14 April. The summit is highly likely to result in enhanced security measures throughout the city in the lead up to, and during, the summit. National leaders or senior government representatives of most American states are scheduled to attend, although the Peruvian government has continued to bar access for Venezuela’s President Maduro. Ongoing unrest and oppression in Venezuela is likely to be a key topic at the summit as the large numbers of refugees and migrants fleeing the country are heavily impacting its neighbours.
- Hungarian Parliamentary Elections – On 08 April, Hungarians will go to the polls to elect 199 members of the National Assembly. The election campaign has been driven by divisive campaigning, with the incumbent Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, using Euroscepticism, xenophobia, and openly illiberal policy positions as prominent features of his campaign. Concerns relating to the 2016 migration crisis remain prominent in Hungary’s national consciousness, and observers suggest that there is an increasing political void between the urban and rural elements of the population. Travellers should expect protests and rallies in the lead up to, and following the election, with a realistic possibility of outbreaks of violence.
- Azerbaijani Presidential Elections – The first of two potential rounds of the Azerbaijani presidential election is scheduled for 11 April, with eight candidates campaigning to hold the office for seven years. If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first poll, the top two candidates will face each other in a run-off, the date for which has not been announced. The vote was constitutionally scheduled for October 2018, however the President issued a decree on 05 February to advance the poll to April and avoid clashing with “important domestic and international events”. Local political analysts suggest that the new date has been selected to deny opposition candidates appropriate time to prepare; and due to internal pressures within the ruling party, which pose a threat of rupturing the President’s support base before an October election.
Significant Dates and Events
- 07 April – Judaism – Last night of Passover
- 07 April – Israel – Anti-corruption protest scheduled in Tel Aviv
- 07 April – Kyrgyzstan – Day of the People’s April Revolution
- 07 April – Rwanda – Genocide against the Tutsi Memorial Day
- 07 April – Serbia – Far-right group to march on Belgrade
- 07 April – Fiji – FTUC protest march in Suva
- 07 April – Hong Kong – Pro-democracy protest in Civic Square
- 07-10 April – France – Rail workers to strike
- 08 April – Various – Orthodox Easter Sunday
- 08 April – Niger – Nationwide opposition protests to be held
- 08 April – Norway – Private sector transport workers to commence strike action
- 08-09 April – Hungary – Election rallies planned around Budapest
- 09 April – Spain – Unionbus workers to strike
- 09 April – Egypt – Sham El Nessim
- 09 April – Georgia – Day of National Unity
- 09 April – Kosovo – Constitution Day
- 09 April – Philippines – The Day of Valour
- 10 April – Greece – UberX service to cease
- 10-13 April – Chile – Lan Express flights cancelled due to strike action
- 11 April – Australia – Animal rights protesters due to demonstrate outside Parliament House, Sydney
- 11-14 April – Togo – Opposition protests scheduled throughout Lome
- 11-14 April – South Africa – State funeral for Winnie Mandela likely to cause disruption in Soweto
- 12-13 April – Italy – 48-hour strike to be held by public nursing staff
- 13 April – China – Shanghai Formula 1 race
- 15 April – North Korea – Celebration of Kim Il Sung’s birthday
- 16 April – UK – Commonwealth Head of State meeting in London
- 16-17 April – Portugal – Train staff to strike
- 20 April – UK – Docklands Light Railway staff to strike
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 13
Headlines From This Week
- Attempted Terror Attack in Grenoble – One man was detained in Grenoble by French Police after attempting to conduct a vehicle-ramming attack against soldiers jogging near their base in Varces-Allieres-et-Risset. Eyewitness reports suggested that the attacker shouted at the troops in Arabic before his attempted attack. There are also suggestions that the vehicle was fitted with fake number plates, indicative that the attack had been pre-planned.
- Civil Unrest in Catalonia – Supporters of Catalan independence have clashed with Spanish police repeatedly throughout the week, following the arrest of separatist leader, Charles Puigdemont’s, arrest in Germany on 25 March. Instances of violence were reported, with approximately 100 people requiring medical attention as a result of the unrest.
- Alexandria Bombing – An improvised explosive device was detonated in Alexandria, near the Tolip hotel. The attack appears to have targeted a senior member of the security forces who was travelling nearby. Post incident, Egyptian security forces reportedly located an armed cell of Muslim Brotherhood members, believed to be responsible for the attack, six of which were killed resisting arrest.
- 24 Injured at Pakistani Spring Festival – An unidentified attacker threw a hand grenade into a crowd of revellers at a spring festival in Dera Ismail Khan. At least 24 people were injured during the attack, including two members of the paramilitary Frontier Corps, who may have been the primary targets. The identity of the attacker remains unclear.
- Fatal Mud Slides in Indonesia – The provinces of North Sumatra, West Sulawesi, and East Kalimantan have suffered extensive rainfall, resulting in widespread flooding and mudslides. At least 12,000 people were forced to leave their homes, and a number of fatalities were reported. Emergency centres have been established to house the refugees.
- Insurgent groups clash in Colombia – Members of the Ejercito Popular de Liberacion and Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional clashed with each other, and security forces throughout Colombia. This occurred despite persistent and ongoing talks between the government and the ELN to establish the basis of a long-term ceasefire. Insurgent groups within Colombia retain close links to armed criminal groups and appear to take advantage of unrest in neighbouring Venezuela in order to provide them a safe haven.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Former President Zuma Due in Court – The former president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, has been officially charged with 16 counts of corruption in relation to an arms deal he conducted in the 1990s. He is likely to seek to have the charges thrown out before trial, however his first court date has been set for 06 April. Protests by his supporters are a realistic possibility, particularly near government buildings, the courthouse hosting the hearing, or near local offices of the African National Congress (ANC) party.
- Christian Festival of Easter – Travellers in Christian majority countries can expect some travel disruption between 29 March and 02 April as the Christian festival of Easter is celebrated. Travellers should plan ahead during this period and expect delays on roads and engineering works on key infrastructure including rail lines. In addition, shops and services are likely to operate with reduced hours and lower staffing.
- Public State Workers to Strike in Buenos Aires – On 05 April, state workers are due to conduct industrial action in an effort to secure better wages and prevent threatened mass layoffs and forced retirements. The unions coordinating the proposed strike represent employees from the state healthcare provider, the judiciary, and education. Travellers should be aware that availability of basic services are likely to be impaired throughout the duration of the strike.
- Human Rights Rally in Dhaka – Bangladeshi human rights groups are seeking to conduct a rally in the capital, Dhaka, on 06 April. Protests in Bangladesh often entail violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces, and travellers are strongly advised to avoid any large crowds, or political events.
- Anti-Corruption Rally in Bratislava – Slovak anti-corruption campaigners are due to hold a rally in Bratislava’s SMP Square on 05 April as part of the continued public effort to seek justice for Jan Kuciak, a journalist murdered following his exposure of corrupt practices in Slovak government and business. Previous protests have drawn upwards of 50,000 participants, although no instances of violence were reported.
- Yekaterinburg Opposition Rally – Local opposition supporters are due to rally in Yekaterinburg’s Oborony Square on 02 April. They intend to protest the local governor’s decision to abolish mayoral elections. Protests in Russia are frequently countered by aggressive suppressive tactics by local security forces. Travellers should make efforts to avoid the area and expect a heightened security presence.
Significant Dates and Events
- 30 March – Islam – Birthday of Ali Ibn Abi Talib, important to Shia Muslims
- 30 March – Christianity – Good Friday, often a public holiday in historically Christian countries
- 30-31 March – Judaism – The night between 30-31 March marks the first night of Passover
- 30-31 March – South Africa – Two Oceans Marathon, Cape Town
- 31 March – Malta – Freedom Day
- 31 March – Myanmar – Full Moon of Tabaung (Magha Puja)
- 31 March – Trinidad and Tobago – Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day
- 31 March – Iran – Imam Ali’s Birthday
- 31 March – Sri Lanka – Bak Full Moon Poya
- 01 April – Christianity – Easter Sunday
- 01 April – India – Odish Day, a public holiday
- 01 April – Benin – Youth Day
- 01 April – Cyprus – Greek Cypriot National Day
- 01 April – Iran – Islamic Republic Day
- 02 April – Christianity – Easter Monday, a public holiday in numerous countries
- 02 April – India – Trade Unions call for strike across Kerala state
- 02 April – Argentina – Malvinas Day
- 02 April – South Africa – Family Day
- 02 April – United States – 2018 Masters golf tournament in Augusta, Georgia
- 04 April – Angola – Peace Day
- 04 April – Senegal – Independence Day
- 06 April – China – Qingming, or Memorial Day, a public holiday shared with some neighbouring countries
- 07 April – Judaism – Last night of Passover
- 07 April – Kyrgyzstan – Day of the People’s April Revolution
- 07 April – Rwanda – Genocide against the Tutsi Memorial Day
- 08 April – Various – Orthodox Easter Sunday
- 09 April – Egypt – Sham El Nessim
- 09 April – Georgia – Day of National Unity
- 09 April – Kosovo –Constitution Day
- 09 April – Philippines – The Day of Valour
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 12
Headlines From This Week
- Potential Terror Incident in France – A gunman claiming allegiance to the Islamic State group fired shots and took hostages at a supermarket in the town of Trebes in France on 23 March. Police were also dealing with a shooting in nearby Carcassonne. Estimates suggest that there are three dead and two injured in these two incidents, not including the gunman who is believed to have been killed as police stormed the supermarket.
- Peru President Offers Resignation – The president of Peru offered his resignation on 21 March 2018, ahead of an impeachment vote regarding corruption charges. This could see power passed to First Vice President Martin Vizcarra. President Kuczynski has criticised opponents led by one-time presidential nominee and daughter of former strongman leader Alberto Fujimori, Keiko Fujimori. There is a potential for a new election to be called within a year. Protests have occurred in Lima and reports suggest they have turned violent.
- Kabul Bombing – At least 32 people were killed after a suicide bombing at the Sakhi Shrine in Kabul, Afghanistan. The attack came as crowds gathered to celebrate Nowruz festival or Persian New Year; many in the crowd belonged to the Shia minority. The attack was claimed by the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan.
- Austin Bomber Killed – The individual believed to have been behind five bombings in the American city of Austin which killed two people, was killed on 21 March. He also stands accused of injuring six others. The culprit was killed when he detonated a bomb after a police chase; his motive remains unclear at this time.
- State of Emergency Lifted in Maldives – Maldives President Abdulla Yameen has lifted the country’s state of emergency after 45 days. The emergency was imposed following a political and constitutional crisis after a Supreme Court order to release nine persons including the exiled former President Mohamed Nasheed. Yameen has increased his grip on power. Further protests should be expected.
- School Girls Freed in Nigeria – The government in Nigeria reported on 21 March that almost all of the 110 girls kidnapped by Boko Haram from Dapchi had been returned. The fate of nine girls remains unclear. Reports suggest that the Nigerian government were forced to pay or trade something to get their release. The girls were abducted on 19 February 2018; troops had reportedly left Dapchi the day before.
- US Trade Tariffs – President Trump has announced a series of trade tariffs on Chinese imports, heightening fears of a global trade war. The imposition of the tariffs comes after an investigation into intellectual property theft by China and Chinese companies. Tariffs are expected to impact Chinese imports worth $50-60 billion.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Elections in Egypt – The presidential elections in Egypt are due to take place between 26 and 28 March 2018, with the potential for a second-round run-off between 24 and 26 April. There are only two candidates in the race – President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Moussa Mostafa Moussa of El-Ghad Party. Sisi is expected to win handsomely with Moussa being described as being a phony candidate, due to him being a supporter of the current president. Sisi has been able to prevent any serious opposition through arrest and other means.
- March for our Lives – On 24 March, protestors will take to the streets of Washington DC and in 831 other locations worldwide to end gun violence and mass shootings at schools. The protest will begin at 1200hrs on Pennsylvania Avenue in the US capital; disruption is expected. For more information on the locations of protests, see https://marchforourlives.com/.
- Jewish Festival of Passover – Jews around the world will celebrate Passover 2018 from the evening of 30 March until 07 April. Terror attacks are possible during this period and recent developments may make such incidents more likely, including the US recognising Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. Israeli security forces are also preparing for a Palestinian “Day of Rage” on 30 March. This date commemorates a 1976 decision by Israel to expropriate land in the Galilee region, which led to riots and the deaths of six Arab-Israeli citizens.
- Christian Festival of Easter – Travellers in Christian majority countries can expect some travel disruption between 29 March and 02 April as the Christian festival of Easter is celebrated. Travellers should plan ahead during this period and expect delays on roads and engineering works on key infrastructure including rail lines.
- Rallies in Belarus – Protests for ‘Freedom Day’ (an unofficial holiday marking Belarus’s 1918 independence) are set to be held in Belarus on 25 March, beginning at 1300hrs. Reports indicate that the city authorities in Minsk, Grodno, and Brest have authorised these activities. However, there is the potential for these rallies to escalate into violence or for unauthorised events to occur. It is advisable to avoid all large gatherings during this period; rallies in 2017 saw the detention of around 700 protesters.
- Sierra Leone Elections – The run-off, second-round vote for the 2018 presidential elections in Sierra Leone will be held on 27 March. Opposition leader Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party and Samura Kamara of the ruling All People’s Congress will contest the vote; the two were separated by under 15,000 votes in the first round. At least five violent incidents involving beatings, stone-throwing, and arson have occurred during this election period; there are fears that violence will escalate as the election approaches and in its aftermath.
Significant Dates and Events
- 23-25 March – Australia – Formula One Grand Prix in Melbourne
- 24 March – Argentina – Truth and Justice Memorial Day
- 24 March – Cote d’Ivoire – Senate Elections
- 24 March – South Korea – Kumho Tyre Protest in Gwangju
- 25 March – Greece and Cyprus – Greek Independence Day
- 25 March – Cameroon – Senate Elections
- 25 March – Hinduism – Festival of Sri Rama Navami (celebrated in locations with Hindu populations)
- 25 March – Moldova – Union Act Rally in Chisinau
- 25 March – Turkmenistan – Parliamentary Elections
- 25 March – Italy – Deadline for formation of parliamentary groups in the Italian Parliament
- 26 March – Bangladesh – Independence Day
- 26 March – Mali – Martyrs’ Day
- 27 March – Myanmar – Armed Forces Day
- 29 March – Madagascar – Martyrs’ day
- 29 March – Central African Republic – Barthelemy Boganda Day
- 30 March – Islam – Birthday of Ali Ibn Abi Talib, important to Shia Muslims
- 30-31 March – South Africa – Two Oceans Marathon, Cape Town
- 31 March – Malta – Freedom Day
- 31 March – Myanmar – Full Moon of Tabaung (Magha Puja)
- 31 March – Trinidad and Tobago – Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day
- 31 March – Iran – Imam Ali’s Birthday
- 31 March – Sri Lanka – Bak Full Moon Poya
- 01 April – Benin – Youth Day
- 01 April – Cyprus – Greek Cypriot National Day
- 01 April – Iran – Islamic Republic Day
- 02 April – India – Trade Unions call for strike across Kerala state
- 02 April – Argentina – Malvinas Day
- 02 April – South Africa – Family Day
- 02 April – United States – 2018 Masters golf tournament in Augusta, Georgia
Commonwealth Games, Gold Coast 2018 Risk Summary
The Commonwealth Games is set to begin in Gold Coast, Australia on 04 April 2018. Travel to the country brings a unique set of challenges and issues to overcome. For more on the Games, how to prepare and, what to expect when travelling to Australia, please take a look at our risk summary below or download this information as a PDF from the following link: Gold Coast Commonwealth Games Risk Summary – Event Advisory
EVENT LOCATION INFORMATION Gold Coast is the primary location and host for the Commonwealth Games. However, events will also be held in other cities. These include Brisbane, Cairns, and Townsville, all located in the state of Queensland. Gold Coast: The Gold Coast is situated in the southeast of the state of Queensland, bordering the state of New South Wales, and stretches along 57km of coastline. The area is home to over half a million people and enjoys 300 sunny days per annum. Gold Coast is renowned for its surfing beaches, high-rise dominated skyline, and nightlife; the area of Surfers Paradise is a hub for Australia’s tourist industry. The city is integral to Australia’s entertainment industry, with major television, film, and music production industries present; Gold Coast has been dubbed “Australia’s Hollywood”. Away from the city’s beaches are vast, sub-tropical rainforests. Brisbane: Brisbane is the capital and most populous city in the state of Queensland, and the third most populous in the country. The city’s metropolitan area is home to 2.4 million people and by some estimates is the country’s fastest-growing city. Brisbane is a modern, industrial, and culturally diverse metropolis. The city is business focussed and not one of Australia’s prime tourist cities. Brisbane has hosted a series of international events, including the 1982 Commonwealth Games, the 1988 World Expo, and the G20 summit in 2014. Brisbane sits on the Brisbane River, with flooding having caused significant damage in the past, notably in 2011. The city faces a water shortage with local water restrictions calling for four minute showers. There are several consulates in the city offering diplomatic support including the consulates of the United Kingdom and China. Cairns: Cairns is located in tropical north Queensland and is known as a laidback tourist destination. The city is home to 140,000 people and is gateway to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and other tourist attractions. The city is surrounded by rainforest and can be used as a hub to destinations such as the Daintree rainforest, the Atherton tablelands, and Cape Tribulation, Townsville: Townsville is a coastal city located in north eastern Queensland and is home to around 200,000 people. The city is less-visited than some of its north Queensland neighbours. Townsville offers excellent access to the Outback, the rainforest of the Paluma Range, the Great Barrier Reef, and Magnetic Island.
GETTING AROUND
MEDICAL PREPARATION
LOCAL ETIQUETTE
SCAMS
SECURITY SUMMARY Australia is a broadly safe country, geographically remote from many of the world’s violent hotspots. That said, the nation remains an important western partner, both politically and militarily, and this has led to concerns about vulnerability to attacks by Islamist extremism. Policing with regards to this issue has been generally affective, although a number of incidents have occurred, generally involving self-radicalised Islamists. Violent crime is uncommon, and when it occurs, it is generally related to pre-existing grievances between individuals, or as a result of the illegal drugs trade. In Australia, outlaw biker gangs form the main criminal group related to both violent attacks and narcotics. They are highly unlikely to target foreigners. Petty crime may prove to be an issue in any urban area, particularly those known to attract a high number of tourists. The Games in Gold Coast are likely to exacerbate this. Pickpockets and opportunistic theft should be expected, and appropriate measures, including maintaining situational awareness, and avoiding overt display of valuables, are recommended. The Australian government has intermittently strained relations with the indigenous populations and some migrant groups. This occasionally manifests in the form of street protests in major cities, particularly around national holidays, or in response to particular government action which are deemed potentially discriminatory. The security risk to travellers during the Games is LOW. Personal security measures should be implemented to a similar standard as in any western city.
GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE Although Australia is considered safe (especially in terms of crime and terrorist threat), it is advisable to remain aware of your surroundings to at least the same degree as you would in any other developed country. Take extra care of passports, credit cards, and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone or at night, and make sure to use a legitimate means of transport such as public transport or metered taxis. Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves. Travellers seeking to venture more widely around the Games are advised to consider that communications, shelter, and water supplies may be very limited beyond urban areas. Travellers should be aware of sea safety. Do not go in the water when the shark flag is raised and those who are not strong swimmers should be cautious of strong currents and rip tides. It is important that the instructions of beach personnel is adhered to. Australia maintains strict control over imports and exports, particularly of animal and plant produce, in an effort to minimise threats to its unique ecosystem. This is extended to the personal items brought by private travellers. It is recommended to review the access requirements via the Australian embassy or government website before travel. Any controlled materials are likely to be confiscated and destroyed, with fines raised against the traveller.
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT KEY FACTS
- Estimated Population: 638,000 (Gold Coast, 2015)
- Geographic Area: 414.3 Km²
- Language: English (de facto)
- Religion: Predominantly Christian or non-religious.
- Climate: Humid, Sub-tropical.
- GMT: +10 (Queensland)
- Capital: Canberra
- Currency: Australian Dollar
- Emergency Services: 000 or 112
GOLD COAST COMMONWEALTH GAMES KEY FACTS
COUNTRIES: 70 70 countries and territories are scheduled to send athletes to the 2018 Games. The Maldives were scheduled to attend, but withdrew from the Commonwealth in October 2016. ATHLETES: 6,600 6,600 athletes and officials are anticipated to attend the games. The event is the first international event to have an equal number of events for men and women. TICKETS: 1.5MILLION Approximately 1.5 million spectators are expected at the games, with over 1.25 million tickets presently sold. All ticket holders will receive free local public transport on the date(s) of the event(s) which they are attending. SECURITY: 10,000 4,000 privately licenced security personnel are due to be deployed for Gold Coast 2018. Additionally, six thousand police and military personnel will be on duty providing services from counter terroism support, to air defence. OLYMPIC VENUES: 17 The events for the Games will be in the vicinity of the Gold Coast. The majority of events are hosted within the city, however some venues are located in Brisbane, Cairns, and Townsville.EVENT LOCATION INFORMATION Gold Coast is the primary location and host for the Commonwealth Games. However, events will also be held in other cities. These include Brisbane, Cairns, and Townsville, all located in the state of Queensland. Gold Coast: The Gold Coast is situated in the southeast of the state of Queensland, bordering the state of New South Wales, and stretches along 57km of coastline. The area is home to over half a million people and enjoys 300 sunny days per annum. Gold Coast is renowned for its surfing beaches, high-rise dominated skyline, and nightlife; the area of Surfers Paradise is a hub for Australia’s tourist industry. The city is integral to Australia’s entertainment industry, with major television, film, and music production industries present; Gold Coast has been dubbed “Australia’s Hollywood”. Away from the city’s beaches are vast, sub-tropical rainforests. Brisbane: Brisbane is the capital and most populous city in the state of Queensland, and the third most populous in the country. The city’s metropolitan area is home to 2.4 million people and by some estimates is the country’s fastest-growing city. Brisbane is a modern, industrial, and culturally diverse metropolis. The city is business focussed and not one of Australia’s prime tourist cities. Brisbane has hosted a series of international events, including the 1982 Commonwealth Games, the 1988 World Expo, and the G20 summit in 2014. Brisbane sits on the Brisbane River, with flooding having caused significant damage in the past, notably in 2011. The city faces a water shortage with local water restrictions calling for four minute showers. There are several consulates in the city offering diplomatic support including the consulates of the United Kingdom and China. Cairns: Cairns is located in tropical north Queensland and is known as a laidback tourist destination. The city is home to 140,000 people and is gateway to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and other tourist attractions. The city is surrounded by rainforest and can be used as a hub to destinations such as the Daintree rainforest, the Atherton tablelands, and Cape Tribulation, Townsville: Townsville is a coastal city located in north eastern Queensland and is home to around 200,000 people. The city is less-visited than some of its north Queensland neighbours. Townsville offers excellent access to the Outback, the rainforest of the Paluma Range, the Great Barrier Reef, and Magnetic Island.
GETTING AROUND
- Gold Coast Airport is the official airport of the Games. It operates domestically (to larger cities including Sydney, Perth, and Melbourne) and some regional flights including to Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, and several locations in New Zealand.
- Gold Coast Airport is served by a number of public bus services, a designated licensed taxi pick-up zone (with taxis from Queensland and New South Wales), and SkyBus, which operated daily services between the airport and more than 500 Gold Coast hotels. The airport is located at the southern end of Gold Coast, around 25km from Surfers Paradise. It is the sixth busiest airport in Australia and the busiest outside of a state capital.
- Brisbane airport is around an hour to an hour and a half’s drive north of Gold Coast and offers more international routes. Cairns also hosts an international airport with regional links to Papua New Guinea, Japan, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, and a host of domestic locations including Sydney and Melbourne. Townsville Airport is only served by domestic flights with facilities shared with the Australian Defence Forces.
- Free travel is provided to athletes, volunteers, and spectators on the day of their ticketed event and up to 0300hrs the day after. Public transport is provided through the train, tram (G:link), and Games shuttle bus travel. Most public transport services are accessible with spaces available for wheelchairs and mobility devices. Extra buses and routes are being put on to provide transport to the Games events and sights of interest in Gold Coast. Free public transport is also available in Brisbane, Cairns, and Townsville for the relevant Translink and connect bus services. In Gold Coast, public transport will run every 15 minutes or better during peak hours to eliminate long waiting times.
- Given the proximity of hotels to Games locations, cycling is an option for visitors to Gold Coast. The area hosts more than 1,000km of on-road and off-road bikeways. There are also a number of cycle park locations set up close to competition venues. Cycles will not be allowed on public buses during the Games period, however.
- There are a limited number of pre-booked park ‘n’ ride spaces available. This may prove useful as there will be either no or limited parking within the vicinity of Games venues. The park ‘n’ ride service is available to Commonwealth Games ticket holders only.
MEDICAL PREPARATION
- Medical provision in Australia is considered one of the best in the world. However , it can be expensive, especially without insurance.
- All travellers to the Games should visit their doctor at least six to eight weeks before arriving in Australia.
- Travellers should ensure that they are up to date with all routine vaccinations before travelling, this includes tetanus, polio, and measles, mumps and rubella.
- Other recommended vaccinations may include: hepatitis B, Japanese encephalitis, typhoid, and rabies (Bat Lyssavirus).
- Certain travellers may also be required to provide a yellow fever vaccination certificate.
- Outbreaks of the mosquito-borne dengue fever have been reported in the state of Queensland. When outbreaks occur, they usually take place in the north of the state. Travellers should use a insect repellent containing DEET twice a day, wear long-sleeved shirts and trousers, and sleep in a mosquito net if travelling to an affected area. There is no vaccination or medication to prevent contracting dengue.
- There is a small ongoing outbreak of hepatitis A in the state of Victoria. As of 06 March 2018, a total of 65 cases (58 confirmed) with one death has been reported since November 2017. Many of the cases have identified as men who have sex with men. While the outbreak has not spread to Queensland at the time of writing, this remains a possibility.
- Travellers to the Games should take the necessary precaution against sun- and heat-related illnesses. Sun creams with a sun protection factor (SPF) of 30 or above and 4 or 5 star UVA (ultraviolet A) protection should be used. Sunscreen should be applied liberally at least 30 minutes before exposure to the sun and then reapplied at least every two hours and also after swimming, exercise, and towel drying. Exposure to the sun should be limited between 1100hrs and 1500hrs as this is when UV rays are generally most powerful. Travellers should also ensure that they drink plenty of fluids.
- If taking long-term prescribed medication, travellers should contact their local Australian diplomatic mission to ensure that the import of such medication does not contravene any local laws. Travellers should also ensure that they maintain the original prescription (in English if possible) and that they have more than enough to cover the length of their stay.
LOCAL ETIQUETTE
- All travellers should expect equal treatment, regardless of social status. This should not be taken as a sign of naivety or disrespect.
- It is generally considered rude not to pay an even split of any food or entertainment bill, or to refrain from buying a round of drinks in a bar if you have been included in previous rounds.
- If invited to an Australian’s home for a meal, or the ubiquitous barbeque, it is expected to bring wine or beer for the hosts. Calling before hand to offer anything else is likely to be appreciated.
- Communication is typically direct. Humorous or occasionally rude language is normal within conversation.
- Tipping is not mandatory, but a tip of approximately 10 per cent is common in restaurants. In less formal settings, such as shops or cafés, servers may simply be told to “keep the change”.
- The political situation regarding Australia’s aboriginal indigenous peoples is often tense or controversial. It is generally advisable to avoid bringing this up in casual conversation.
- Business dress remains formal or semi-formal; for meetings men generally wear shirts and jackets, and women, typically modest dresses. Climatic conditions may lead to this being somewhat relaxed.
- Greetings and introductions are often carried out with handshakes and on first-name terms. The use of titles and family names is unlikely in the majority of situations, and insisting on their use may come across negatively.
- Punctuality is expected for business purposes, arriving slightly early is generally well received.
- Business cards are exchanged without ritual. If your Australian counterpart does not offer any, they may simply not have one, no offence is intended.
- Australian society generally places value on openness and honesty. Respectfully raising a problem is highly unlikely to cause offence, and will permit a mutual effort to resolve it. Equally, expect to be told openly if you are seen to have done something wrong, this is not intended to offend you.
- Any effort to conduct a hard-sell is unlikely to be well received. Australians are likely to be more receptive to a direct but relaxed discussion of pertinent facts and details.
- Small talk is rarely seen as beneficial in business settings and is not required before forming a business relationship.
SCAMS
- Discount Tickets: Organised criminal groups mass-purchase event or attraction tickets with stolen credit cards, then sell them on at substantially below market price to tourists. Most attractions now check tickets against purchasers ID or card details, turning away ticketholders if the details do not match. Avoid buying significantly cut-price tickets.
- Fake Tour Operators: Tourists have been targeted by fake tour guides who charge visitors for tours of free, openly accessible areas. They generally target non-English speakers, who may be unable to differentiate between official and fake signage. Others may charge for photos near major landmarks, or intentionally provide substandard or unregistered accommodation. They may also intentionally guide tourists into businesses owned by family or colleagues.
- Passport Extortion: Unregistered tour operators have been known to collect travellers travel documents for the duration of tours, refusing to return them until a certain value of purchases have been made from affiliated businesses. Travellers should never surrender travel documents to tour operators.
- Taxis Parked in Front of Your Hotel: In front of many four & five-star hotels there are taxis waiting all day. Despite appearances, these taxis are not associated with the hotel. These drivers may not switch on their meters when picking up passengers and instead insist on an excessive charge whilst already in motion. Travellers should be aware of taxis which wait outside of hotels. If you need a taxi, ask your hotel to order one for you from a reputable company and ensure they meter your journey. If the vehicle has a meter, it should be used. Taxi drivers have also been reported as taking intentionally extended journeys in order to overcharge fares.
- Fake “Monks”: Individuals or small groups attempt to force some sort of valueless charm upon passers-by and then pursue them for a “donation” payment in return. They often affect religious clothing in order to give a veneer of legality, or may be indigenous people passing off fake charms or totems. Do not let people force items upon you, and continue to firmly refuse them while walking away.
- Betting Scams: Fake betting events have been reported across Australia in relation to major sporting events, typically in relation to horse racing events. It is highly likely that similar scams will be established in the build-up to the Games, seeking to capitalise on the influx of travellers.
SECURITY SUMMARY Australia is a broadly safe country, geographically remote from many of the world’s violent hotspots. That said, the nation remains an important western partner, both politically and militarily, and this has led to concerns about vulnerability to attacks by Islamist extremism. Policing with regards to this issue has been generally affective, although a number of incidents have occurred, generally involving self-radicalised Islamists. Violent crime is uncommon, and when it occurs, it is generally related to pre-existing grievances between individuals, or as a result of the illegal drugs trade. In Australia, outlaw biker gangs form the main criminal group related to both violent attacks and narcotics. They are highly unlikely to target foreigners. Petty crime may prove to be an issue in any urban area, particularly those known to attract a high number of tourists. The Games in Gold Coast are likely to exacerbate this. Pickpockets and opportunistic theft should be expected, and appropriate measures, including maintaining situational awareness, and avoiding overt display of valuables, are recommended. The Australian government has intermittently strained relations with the indigenous populations and some migrant groups. This occasionally manifests in the form of street protests in major cities, particularly around national holidays, or in response to particular government action which are deemed potentially discriminatory. The security risk to travellers during the Games is LOW. Personal security measures should be implemented to a similar standard as in any western city.
GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE Although Australia is considered safe (especially in terms of crime and terrorist threat), it is advisable to remain aware of your surroundings to at least the same degree as you would in any other developed country. Take extra care of passports, credit cards, and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone or at night, and make sure to use a legitimate means of transport such as public transport or metered taxis. Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves. Travellers seeking to venture more widely around the Games are advised to consider that communications, shelter, and water supplies may be very limited beyond urban areas. Travellers should be aware of sea safety. Do not go in the water when the shark flag is raised and those who are not strong swimmers should be cautious of strong currents and rip tides. It is important that the instructions of beach personnel is adhered to. Australia maintains strict control over imports and exports, particularly of animal and plant produce, in an effort to minimise threats to its unique ecosystem. This is extended to the personal items brought by private travellers. It is recommended to review the access requirements via the Australian embassy or government website before travel. Any controlled materials are likely to be confiscated and destroyed, with fines raised against the traveller.
Solace Global Proudly Sponsors Vitus Pro Cycling Team
Enhancing Security in Professional Sports
This year Solace Global Risk are proud to be sponsoring Vitus Pro Cycling Team, a professional UK-based cycle team. Vitus Pro Cycling Team will race in the key events of the domestic calendar.
Solace Global protect thousands of people and assets all over the world, with 24/7 intelligence, tracking, assistance, in-country support and response services. In recent years, as global threats have become less predictable, even employees being sent to traditionally ‘safe’ destinations need security preparation, pushing risk management, resilience and duty of care into the limelight for their client base, which includes Corporates, NGO’s, HNWs, Scholastics, Media Groups and Insurers.
Solace Global built bespoke travel risk management solutions to support Duty of Care delivery, a comprehensive approach that extends even to tactical, on-the-ground support when environments become unworkable, and which empowers businesses to operate in complex environments. They protect people, assets and reputation, and enable business continuity.
Managing Director of Solace Global Risk, said:
“Road cycling’s demographic is in perfect alignment with the demographic of people we want to speak to in our business. We need to speak to Managers and Directors, who are directly responsible for the Duty of Care of their personnel.
We wanted to support an innovative professional team within the cycle industry, that conducts itself in a manner that reflects our own operating standards. Vitus Pro Cycling Team are a new team with a great story. They travel globally and will support our brand messaging.
The training and race day programme also presents an opportunity to look at developing and proving our tracking capability in a safe, but fast paced environment, where the requirement for immediate communications and change of tactics is real but the operational threat is low.
The opportunity to work with Cherie Pridham, the team owner and manager, was also a big attraction for us. We want to promote equality in our approach to the security and risk industry, as well as build a network of similarly minded business professionals.”
Read more about Solace Global.
Week 11 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot
Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents
14 Mar 18: Attempted boarding near Bonny, Nigeria. A tanker underway at 03°51’N 006°40’E was attacked by a group of pirates in a speedboat. The tanker’s evasive actions prevented the attackers from boarding. Vessel and crew reported safe. 16 Mar 18: Vessel Attack near Bonny, Nigeria. A general cargo ship was attacked whilst underway at position 3°57’0N 006°42’5E at 0800UTC. Armed pirates attacked and boarded the vessel. The alarm was raised and all crew retreated to the citadel. The Nigerian Navy dispatched patrol boats to assist the ship. Naval personnel boarded the ship, however no pirates were found onboard. The crew emerged from the citadel and sailed to safe port under escort by the navy. Vessel reported safe. 16 Mar 18: Attempted Attack near Fairway Buoy, Nigeria. A merchant vessel underway at 04°09’N 006°56’E was attacked by a group of pirates in a speedboat. The vessel’s armed security team prevented the attackers from boarding. Vessel and crew reported safe.South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents
17 Mar 18: Attempted Boarding in Caofeidian Anchorage, China. Three robbers in a small boat attempted to board an anchored bulk carrier in position 38°51’2N, 118°36’6E at 1640UTC. The crew noticed the robbers and raised the alarm. The robbers aborted the attempt to board and escaped.Click link to Download PDF: 20180320 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 11 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 11 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 11
Headlines From This Week
- Curfew Implemented in Colon, Panama – Following a spate of civil unrest, a curfew was implemented in Colon on 13 March. Protests were triggered in response to the poor implementation of an infrastructure renovation project, which has led to sanitation issues and flooding. Police with less-than-lethal weapons clashed with protesters throwing rocks, resulting in numerous injured. Isolated reports of burned vehicles and looting also occurred. Tensions are likely to persist.
- Violent Protests in Conakry, Guinea – Protests centred around the Wanindara suburb of Conakry have been ongoing since 13 March, following demands by opposition leaders for the vote counts from the February election to be made public. At least two people were shot dead during the unrest, however the circumstances of these remain unclear. Disruption was caused to bauxite extraction and export operations in the region.
- Palestinian Prime Minister Attacked on 13 March – The Palestinian Prime Minister, Rami Hamdallah, was targeted by a roadside improvised explosive device in Gaza. The blast damaged several vehicles in the Prime Minister’s motorcade, although no casualties were reported. The aim of the attackers remains unclear, and no group has sought to claim credit for the attack. Ongoing tensions between Hamas and Fatah may have been a factor in the lead up to the attack.
- Police killed in Chhattisgarh – Nine members of India’s Central Reserve Police Force were killed in Chhattisgarh when their protected vehicle was struck by a large improvised explosive device. The attack was carried out by a Maoist insurgent group known locally as the Naxals. Reporting suggests that a large number of Naxal fighters continue to operate in the region; attacks are generally focussed on security forces or government targets.
- Russia and the UK Reciprocate Diplomatic Expulsions – Following an apparent assassination attempt by suspected Russian agents in Salisbury, UK, the British and Russian governments have engaged in tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomatic staff. Deteriorating relations between the UK and Russia are likely to have wider impact on relations between Russia, and both the EU and US. Russian travellers in the UK, or British travellers in Russia may experience increased levels of harassment from locals or, if in Russia, officials following the incident.
- 50,000 Refugees Departed Eastern Ghouta – Present estimates suggest that intermittent lulls in the fighting around the Damascus suburb of Easter Ghouta have permitted approximately 50,000 civilians to flee over the past week.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Russian Presidential Election – The Russian presidential election is scheduled for 18 March. The incumbent president, Vladimir Putin, is running against seven opposition candidates, yet is presently receiving approximately 70 per cent support in official polling. Election fraud and corruption is endemic throughout Russia, and urban protests in response to such allegations frequently follow elections. Travellers should be aware that heightened security measures are likely to be in place throughout the election period and near polling sites.
- Tunisian Independence Day – Tunisia celebrates its Independence Day on 20 March. The country has recently experienced waves of protests, in part due to the relative impunity enjoyed by security forces when accused of malpractice or brutality, and also due to the perceived lack of judicial independence. It is likely that protests will occur during the Independence Day events, and there remains an underlying risk that these may become violent.
- Ugadi/Nyepu – The festival of Ugadi represents the New Year celebrated by Hindu populations in India and across the world. Celebrations often vary by region, however travellers are likely to experience disruption and reduced services when visiting any majority-Hindu area. Indonesian Hindus refer to the holiday as Nyepi; services may be shut down in some areas during the celebrations; Bali is scheduled to restrict internet access.
- Nowruz – Nowruz is the traditional Persian New Year, and is celebrated on 20 March in a number of countries with historical cultural ties to Persia, modern-day Iran. The holiday is widely politicised, political leaders often conduct rallies and speeches in the countries where it is celebrated. As Persian population groups may be a minority, it is possible these celebrations will exacerbate ethnic tensions.
- Broad Front Protests, Venezuela – The opposition group known as the Broad Front for a Free Venezuela, called for nationwide demonstrations on 17 March, in relation to the presidential election scheduled for April 2018. This marks the first significant attempt by the opposition to mass-mobilise the population since a four-month wave of protests in 2017. Political rallies and protests in Venezuela are often accompanied by violence, with security forces operating in a heavy-handed and repressive manner.
- European Anti-Racism Demonstrations – Several European cities; generally national and regional capitals such as London, Edinburgh, and Paris; are scheduled to host demonstrations against racism, anti-Semitism, and Islamophobia. Estimates suggest each protest is likely to attract more than one thousand people. It is likely that far-right or anti-immigration groups will seek to conduct counter demonstrations and may seek to disrupt the events. Travellers should avoid any demonstrations if possible, regardless of apparent peaceful intent.
Significant Dates and Events
- 17 March – Bangladesh – Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s birthday
- 17 March – Ireland – Patrick’s Day
- 17 March – Serbia – Anti-Kosovo independence protest to take place in Belgrade
- 17 March – Argentina – Anniversary of 1992 bombing of Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires
- 17 March – Germany – Far-right rallies and counter protests planned in Munich
- 17 March – Burundi – Protests scheduled in Bujumbura
- 18 March – United Kingdom – Pro-Kurdish Rallies in Oxford
- 18 March – Australia – ASEAN summit in Sydney, enhanced security likely.
- 19 March – Togo – Opposition protests scheduled for the week following 19 March
- 19 March – Mexico – Benito Juarez’s Birthday (public holiday)
- 19 March – India – Ola and Uber drivers to strike
- 19 March – Australia – Pro-environmental rally to be held in Marrickville, Sydney
- 21 March – Japan – Vernal Equinox Day
- 21 March – Namibia – Independence Day
- 21 March – South Africa – Human Rights Day
- 22 March – Puerto Rico – Emancipation Day
- 22 March – France – General strike by the SNCF union. Public transport is highly likely to be disrupted.
- 22 March – Italy – Public transport workers to strike in Rome.
- 23 March – Pakistan – Pakistan Day
- 23 March – Peru – Eighth Summit of the Americas to be held in Lima
- 24 March – Argentina – Truth and Justice Memorial Day
- 25 March – Greece and Cyprus – Greek Independence Day
- 26 March – Bangladesh – Independence Day
- 26 March – Mali – Martyrs’ Day
- 26 March – Egypt – First Round of the Presidential Elections.
- 27 March – Myanmar – Armed Forces Day
- 29 March – Madagascar – Martyrs’ day
Week 10 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot
Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents
12 Mar 18: Speedboats Stolen by Armed Group in Bayelsa. A group of armed men attacked the Ayama area of Bayelsa, Nigeria, potentially killing or injuring up to five people. The group fled before security forces could respond, towing approximately ten stolen speedboats. 08 Mar 18: Suspicious Approach near Takoradi Anchorage, Ghana. A merchant vessel underway at 03°55’N 001°14’E was approached by three speedboats. Weapons and six persons sighted on one speedboat. Vessel safe. 06 Mar 18: – Update – Tanker Attacked near Bonny Island, Nigeria. A tanker underway at 04°05’N 006°57’E was approached by two speedboats, the occupants of which boarded the tanker with firearms. All crew took refuge in the citadel, no hostages taken. Pirates departed after damaging navigation and communication equipment. All crew safe.Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents
08 Mar 18: Suspicious Approach in Bab-el-Mandeb. A merchant vessel was approached by three skiffs at 12°32’N 043°27’E, south of Perim Island.South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents
06 Feb 18: LATE REPORT: Robbery From Anchored Vessel, Chittagong, Bangladesh. A merchant vessel at 22*08’N 091*44’E was boarded by six men who threatened the crew and escaped with ship’s properties. Crew reported safe.Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 10 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 10 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.
Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 10
Headlines From This Week
- Warming Relations on the Korean Peninsula – President Trump has agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, after overtures from Pyongyang. The warming of relations between North Korea, South Korea, and the Unite States is highly unexpected, especially given the high tensions in 2017. It is unclear what can be expected to be gained from any talks, but reports suggest that Pyongyang is considering denuclearisation in return for regime security. The warming of relations between North and South Korea largely came as a result of 2018 Pyeongchang Olympic Games and the differing, yet seemingly complementary, tactics of Seoul and Washington.
- Violent Unrest in Sri Lanka – This week saw violent unrest in the island nation of Sri Lanka as Buddhists and Muslims clashed, most notably in the city of Kandy. Reports from 09 March suggest that the situation has calmed somewhat after a state of emergency and curfew were implemented. The Sri Lankan military has reportedly been able to quell Buddhist rioters who had attacked mosques and Muslim-owned businesses. There have not been any reports of tourist areas being affected by the violence.
- Papua New Guinea Earthquake – Over 100 people are now believed to have died after an earthquake struck the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG), with strong aftershocks still being felt. The remoteness of those affected has made rescue efforts a struggle, despite assistance from Australia and New Zealand. Key infrastructure has also been damaged with ExxonMobil forced to shut down all facilities in PNG; repairs and inspections could take around eight weeks.
- North America Winter Storms – A massive two-day winter storm that had stretched over a 3,000-kilometre front struck the eastern seaboard of North America, mainly impacting the northeast. The storm is one of the largest since the 1950s and has caused ground travel to come to a halt in many areas, and for flights to be cancelled; power outages have also been reported. A further storm is expected to bring hazardous weather conditions to the southeast coast of the US in the early part of next week.
- Elections in Italy – The Italian elections of 04 March brought about strong results of populist parties. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement won the largest share of the vote at 32 per cent while the far-right, anti-EU Lega party came third with more than 17 per cent. No party nor pre-election coalition has the necessary 40 per cent to govern. Talks between different parties will now have to take place to ensure that a government can be formed. This will prove difficult as the Five Star Movement ruled out going into government with any other party before the election. New elections may be called if no government can be formed.
What To Look Out For Next Week
- Colombia Elections – Legislative elections in Colombia are due to take place on 11 March. This will mark the first election in which the former rebel group, FARC, are due to participate; the peace deal with FARC has been divisive partly because they are guaranteed 10 seats in the legislature. Another rebel group, the ELN, remain active in Colombia despite peace overtures from the government. The ELN has increased their levels of violence since the end of the ceasefire in early 2018, though they have temporary halted hostilities for the election period.
- Tibetan Uprising Day – Observed on 10 March, Tibetan Uprising Day commemorates the 1959 uprising against the presence of China in Tibet. This anniversary often brings protests in neighbouring countries, such as India or Nepal, but these events have been toned down this year. Expect enhanced security measures in Tibet and the neighbouring provinces of Sichuan, Qinghai, Gansu, and Yunnan Provinces, as Chinese security forces seek to prevent self-immolations (the practice, often by monks, of committing suicide by fire as a form of protest).
- Australia-ASEAN Summit – The city of Sydney will host the Australia-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Special Summit on 17-18 March. Enhanced security measures and road closures are set to be implemented. Protests should also be expected as a series of contentious issues are set to be discussed including political developments in Cambodia, the Rohingya crisis, and the drug war in the Philippines. Smaller summits and events will be held from 12 March.
- Resumption of Protests in Togo – After a period of relative calm, opposition groups have announced plans to resume protests on 13, 14, 15, and 17 March. Talks between the government and its opponents had been ongoing since 19 February. The capital Lomé is likely to be the focus of the protests which have turned deadly in the past. Opposition groups are demanding a return to the 1992 Constitution.
- Elections in Cuba – Elections will be held in Cuba on 11 March 2018 for members of the National Assembly of People’s Power. This election will mark the beginning of the end of the Castro brothers, with Raul due to step down in April 2018. As this election marks a generational change, it may encourage public unrest. Security forces may forcefully crush any demonstrations. In the previous election, the Communist Party won all 612 seats.
- Anti-Finance Law Protests in Niger – Anti-finance law protests are set to take place in Niger on 11 March, specifically in Niamey, Zinder, Maradi, Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Dosso. Previous protests have turned violent and should be avoided. The government claims the law will allow more efficient measures to be implemented against corruption.
Significant Dates and Events
- 09-18 March – South Korea – 2018 Winter Paralympics, Pyeongchang
- 11 March – Lithuania – Restoration of Independence Day
- 11 March – Lesotho – Moshoeshoe’s Day
- 11 March – Cuba – Legislative elections
- 12 March – Australia – Canberra and Labour Day
- 12 March – Commonwealth – Commonwealth Day
- 12 March – Zambia – Youth Day
- 12 March – Belize – National Heroes and Benefactors Day
- 12 March – Mauritius – National Day
- 13 March – Vatican City – Anniversary of the election of Pope Francis
- 13 March – Nepal – Presidential Elections
- 13 March – Grenada – Legislative Elections
- 14 March – Albania – Summer Day
- 15-16 March – Belarus – Constitution Day
- 15-16 March – Hungary – Public holiday
- 16 March – Philippines – Davao City Day
- 17 March – Bangladesh – Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s birthday
- 17 March – Indonesia – Hari Raya Nyepi
- 17 March – Austria – Anti-racism rally to be held in Vienna
- 17 March – Ireland – Patrick’s Day
- 17 March – France – Anti-police violence and discrimination march in Paris
- 17 March – Serbia – Anti-Kosovo independence protest to take place in Belgrade
- 17 March – Argentina – Anniversary of 1992 bombing of Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires
- 18 March – Mauritius – Ougadi
- 18 March – Russia – Presidential Election
- 19 March – Mexico – Benito Juarez’s Birthday
- 20 March – Tunisia – Independence Day
- 20-24 March – Persian New Year (Noruz) – Celebrated in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and elsewhere
- 21 March – Japan – Vernal Equinox Day