Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 31

Headlines From This Week

Zimbabwe Elections – Zimbabwe held its first election since the near-bloodless coup which deposed President Mugabe in November 2017. The governing party announced victory with a substantial majority, however this was immediately contested by opposition groups. Protesters took to the streets in Harare and were confronted by riot officers with teargas. The election of Mugabe’s replacement is unlikely to lead to significant divergence in national policies, the core of the new government contains numerous veterans of Mugabe’s administration.
Protests in Dhaka – The Bangladeshi capital was brought to a standstill on several days through the past week due to widespread student protests. The demonstrators actively sought to obstruct road traffic and check drivers’ licences, insurance, and vehicle roadworthiness. The protests were triggered by a fatal road traffic collision, where a bus ploughed through a group of students, killing two. Riot officers clashed with the students, with teargas and non-lethal ammunition used in their efforts to disperse crowds.
Protests in Katanga – A key opposition leader, Moise Katumbi, the former governor of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Katanga province, has announced his return to the country and contest the presidential election due in late 2018. He fled the country and was handed a three year sentence in 2016 in absentia for hiring armed militias, and a series of corruption offences during his time as governor. Extensive protests occurred in Katanga’s regional capital, Lubumbashi, between supporters and opponents of his return, fuelled by the prospect of his arbitrary arrest upon landing.
Tajikistan Ramming Attack – The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the killing of four cyclists in a vehicle and knife attack in Tajikistan’s Khatlon province. The group of seven cyclists was struck by a vehicle, before at least five men disembarked the vehicle and stabbed the fallen riders. Four of the five suspects were later shot and killed during an exchange with Tajik police. The attackers had produced a video swearing their allegiance to IS prior to the attack, and all were Tajik citizens not known to have fought with IS abroad.
California Wildfires – Wildfires continued to spread across significant areas of California, with the most significant occurring in Shasta County, and on the edge of the Yosemite National Park. Reported casualties have remained relatively low, with firefighters from multiple states battling to contain the fires whilst adjacent populated areas are evacuated. These evacuations and associated road closures have caused disruption to local travel, however the majority of the state remains broadly unaffected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Discrimination Rally in Washington DC – A selection of anti-fascist groups have planned multiple rallies in Washington DC between 10 and 12 August 2018. The groups wish to address a wide array of grievances with the US federal government, most notably what they see as the normalisation of white nationalism throughout the branches of government under President Trump’s administration. Travellers should expect widespread disruption. Previous anti-fascist protests have been met with right-wing counter protests, and resulted in significant violence.
Colombian Presidential Inauguration & Bogota Carnival – Colombia’s capital, Bogota, is likely to experience extensive disruption over the following week. The Bogota Carnival, celebrating the anniversary of the city’s foundation, is due to be held on 05 and 06 August, to be followed immediately by the inauguration of President Iván Duque Márquez. Both events are likely to cause widespread travel disruption, with road closures and a reduction in business opening hours likely.
Kazakh Opposition Protests – The banned Democratic Choice for Kazakhstan group has called for nationwide protests on 06 July to coincide with President Nazarbayev’s birthday. Political opposition in Kazakhstan is heavily suppressed, and it is highly likely that protests will be forcefully dispersed if they take place. Previous rallies by the group in June 2018 resulted in mass arrests. The most likely locations for rallies are at Astana’s Expo 2017 Centre, Almaty’s Astana Square, and in the city centres of Shymkent, Kyzylorda, Uralsk, and Temirtau.
Pro-Refugee Rallies in Germany – Rallies are due to be held in cities across Rhine-Westphalia in solidarity with refugees seeking to flee to Europe across the Mediterranean. The protests are highly likely to attract counter protesters from anti-migration and extreme-right wing groups who harbour an ideological opposition to sheltering refugees. Protests in Germany are generally well policed, however clashes between protesters and counter-demonstrators are likely.
US Secretary of State Visits Asia – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is to visit Singapore and Jakarta, Indonesia, between 03 and 05 August. Pompeo is anticipated to conduct a series of meetings with senior government officials, focusing on regional cooperation within the ASEAN framework. Extensive travel disruption is likely and authorities in both cities have stated that a heightened level of security will be in place for the duration of his visit.

Significant Dates And Events

03 to 04 August – United Kingdom – London Underground staff to strike
01 to 12 August – United Kingdom and Germany – European Sports Championship in Glasgow and Berlin
04 August – Costa Rica – LGBT rally planned in San Jose
04 August – Israel – Tel Aviv protest planned against nationality law
04 and 05 August – Burkina Faso – Revolution Day followed by Independence Day
04 to 12 August – France – Gay Games in Paris
05 August – Croatia – Homeland Thanksgiving Day
06 August – Caribbean – Nine countries celebrate Emancipation Day
06 August – Bolivia – Independence Day
06 August – Canada – August Civic or Provincial Holiday
06 August – El Salvador – Fiestas Patronales
06 August – United Arab Emirates – Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan’s Accession Day
06 August – Zambia – Farmers’ Day
07 August – Colombia – Anniversary of the Battle of Boyaca
07 August – Cote d’Ivoire – Independence Day
08 August – Iraq – Ceasefire Day
08 August – Tanzania – Farmers’ Day
09 August – Singapore – National Day
09 August – South Africa – National Women’s Day
09 to 12 August – United States – USPGA Golf Tournament at Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis, Missouri
10 August – Ecuador – National Independence Day
10 August – Various – Ryanair pilots to strike
10 August – Australia – Environmental activists to hold vigil in Melbourne
11 August – Japan – Mountain Day
11 August – Chad – Independence Day
13 August – Central African Republic – Independence Day
13 August – Zimbabwe – Heroes Day
13 August – Thailand – King’s birthday
13-14 August – Grenada – Carnival

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 31 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 31 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 30

Headlines From This Week

Pakistan Election – Former cricket player Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf won the Pakistan election held on 25 July and he is set to lead the country (in a coalition), despite claims of vote-rigging and military involvement in the vote. The election has been bitterly fought and seen multiple cases of violence. Notably, 31 people were killed after a bomb blast near a polling station in Quetta on polling day. Khan campaigned as a populist and if he governs as one also, this is likely to have a profound impact on Pakistan’s future.

Terror Attack in Syria – More than 200 people have been killed after a surprise Islamic State offensive on the city of Sweida and surrounding villages on 25 July. People were reportedly slaughtered in their homes in the early hours of the morning. The area, populated mostly by the Druze minority sect, has largely been spared by fighting during the civil war. Many have suggested that the attack marks an attempt by the terror group to encourage other non-state rebels to join their anti-government cause, but this seems unlikely.

Dam Bursts in Laos – 26 have been killed and 6,000 evacuated from their homes when Laos’s Xepian Xe Nam Noy hydroelectric dam collapsed on the evening of 23 July. The dam, still under construction, in Attapeu province was a multi-billion-dollar project and partly financed by South Korea. In neighbouring Cambodia, 25,000 people were evacuated in Stung Treng in preparation for flood waters heading downstream.

Shooting in Toronto – Islamic State has claimed responsibility for a deadly shooting incident in Toronto on 22 July. The attack in the Greektown area of the city left two dead (one of which was the shooter, who killed himself) and 13 wounded. Investigators have suggested that there is no evidence to link the shooter with the Jihadist group at this stage. The shooting has opened up a debate about gun ownership in Canada.

Deadly Greek Wildfires – At least 83 people have been killed by wildfires this week in Greece, a death toll which is expected to rise. The government’s response to the country’s worst-ever wildfire disaster has been criticised. The Greek Defence Minister claimed that illegal construction contributed to the wildfire and was met with angry crowds in Mati, a hard-hit area. The flames spread quickly thanks to 100km/h winds.

Saudi Vessels Attacked – Saudi Arabia is suspending oil shipments through the Red Sea shipping lane of Bab al-Mandeb after two of its vessels were attacked by the Houthi rebels from the port of Al Hudaydah on 25 July. The strait, where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden, is only around 19km wide, making vessels potentially easy targets. The move has caused the global price of oil to rise.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Final Stage of the 2018 Tour de France – Le Tour de France finally makes its way to Paris after three weeks of cycling across France. The final stage, on 29 July, routinely causes travel disruption in the French capital. The Champs-Elysees will be closed to traffic from 0900hrs to 2300hrs on 29 July and bus routes in the vicinity of the race will experience disruption from 1530hrs to 19:00hrs.

ECOWAS & ECCAS Summit in Lomé – A summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) will take place in the Togolese capital of Lomé on July 30. The summit will provide an opportunity to discuss ways to fight terrorism and extremism. Increased security measures are anticipated in the city during the summit. Demonstrations, which have been ongoing in Togo since last year, are possible despite the government’s blanket ban from 23 July to 01 August. Expect enhanced security measures in the city.

Further General Strike in Haiti – Civil society groups in the Caribbean nation of Haiti have called for a nationwide general strike on 30 July. Activists are demanding that President Moise steps down and that police release anti-government protesters. There is a significant potential for violence given Haiti’s recent history. A fuel subsidy tax protest in early July 2018 led to days of clashes between police and protesters.

Typhoon Jongdari to Hit Japan – Typhoon Jongdari, the 12^th typhoon to form this year, is set to hit Japan’s main island of Honshu between 28 and 29 July, the Ogasawara Islands on 27 July, and the Izu Islands on 28 July. Jongdari is predicted to make landfall as the equivalent of a category three hurricane. Up to 24-hours of consistent, heavy rainfall is expected to occur in Honshu. This typhoon comes on the back of a deadly heatwave which may increase the impact of flash flooding, mudslides, and storm surge flooding.

Pride Festivals – There a series of significant upcoming LGBT+ Pride events in Amsterdam, the Netherlands (28 July to 05 August), EuroPride in Stockholm, Sweden (27 July to 05 August), and Brighton, United Kingdom (03 to 05 August). Travellers in these locations should expect travel disruption in these areas.

European Championship – The inaugural multisport European Championships are set to take place between 02 and 12 August in Glasgow, Scotland (hosting Aquatics, Cycling, Gymnastics, Rowing and Triathlon along with a new European Golf Team Championships) and the Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany which will host the track and field athletics.

Significant Dates And Events

25-29 July – France – Les Fetes de Bayonne
27 to 29 – Hungary – Formula One race weekend in Budapest
28 July – Peru – Independence Day
28 July – Brazil – Pro-Lula rally to be held in Rio de Janeiro
28 July – United Kingdom – Eurostar staff at St Pancreas station to strike
28 July – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally planned in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Kirov
28 July – South Korea – Anti-refugee rally in Seoul
28 July – Australia – Environmental activists to rally in Gold Coast
28 to 29 July – Canada – Section of highway 417 near Ottawa to close
29 July – Mali – Presidential Election
29 July – Cambodia – General Election
30 July – Comoros – Constitutional Referendum
30 July – Morocco – National/Throne Day
30 July – Zimbabwe – General Election
31 July – Algeria – Air Algerie maintenance workers to strike
31 July – South Africa – Gautrain workers to strike
31 July to 06 August – Mexico – Mexicable to suspend some services in Mexico City
01 August – Benin – Independence Day
01 August – Switzerland – National Day (some events take place the preceding evening)
01 August – Ghana – Public sector rally in Accra
02 August – Guyana – Freedom Day
02 August – Macedonia (FYROM) – Republic Day
02 August – Tunisia – SNCFT rail workers to strike
03 August – El Salvador – Fiesta de San Salvador
03 August – Equatorial Guinea – Armed Forces Day
03 August – Senegal – Protest over water shortages in Dakar
03 August – Ireland – Ryanair pilots’ strike
03 August – Niger – Independence Day
03 to 04 August – United Kingdom – London Underground staff to strike
04 August – Burkina Faso – Revolution Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 30 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 30 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Jakarta Palembang Asian Games 2018: Risk Advisory

The 2018 Jakarta Palembang Asian Games is set to begin on 18 August 2018. Travel to the country brings a unique set of challenges and issues to overcome. For more on the Games, how to prepare and, what to expect when travelling to Indonesia, please take a look at our risk summary below or download this information as a PDF from the following link: 2018 Jakarta Palembang Asian Games – Event Advisory. Estimated Population: 9.6 million (Jakarta, 2016 estimated) Geographic Area: 6,392 km² (Jakarta metro) Language: Indonesian (Bahasa) and more than 700 other languages Religion: Six recognised religions – Islam, Protestantism, Catholicism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Confucianism Climate: Tropical UTC: +7 (Jakarta) Currency: Indonesia rupiah Emergency Services: 112 or 110 (police), 113 (fire), 118 (medical), Tourist police (Jakarta): (021) 526 4073

2018 ASIAN GAMES KEY FACTS

COUNTRIES: 45 At the time of writing, 45 National Olympic Committees have confirmed attendance at the Asian Games. Competing associations include ‘Independent Asian Athletes’. ATHLETES: 11,000 An estimated 11,000 athletes are expected to participate in the Games. By some estimates, they are the largest multi-sport event after the Olympic Games. Some 5,000 media personnel are also set to attend. TICKETS: 1.3 MILLION 1.3 million tickets are set to be made available to spectators, with more available if early sales are strong. The average ticket price is set to be $7, with prices as low as $2 for some events. Indonesian officials are hoping to attract as many as 170,000 foreign tourists for the Games. SECURITY: 100,000 Organisers have confirmed that 100,000 security personnel will be deployed in Jakarta, Palembang and West Java, where several events are taking place. A further 30,000 volunteers are also set to be mobilised. EVENTS: 462 There are 462 events to be held in the games in 40 sports and 63 disciplines, in everything from aquatics to wushu, and fencing to rugby. This marks the first Asian Games with events held across two cities – Jakarta and Palembang.

SECURITY CONCERNS

Criminality: Most crime impacting travellers in Jakarta, and Indonesia as a whole, is low-level petty crime, though it is the most likely threat to travellers in Indonesia. While figures suggest that criminal activity as a whole is on the decrease, violent crime has risen marginally. This increase has been attributed to the prevalence of unregistered firearms, although these are typically only used if a victim offers resistance. There have been reports of drink-spiking in Jakarta. This may lead to assault, sexual assault, or robbery. Do not allow food or drink to be left unattended and do not accept food or drink from a stranger. Indonesia has very severe penalties for drug crimes. Foreigners have been subjected to capital punishment for drug-trafficking sentences. Thefts of vehicles, particularly motorcycles, or from parked vehicles occur frequently. Cars parked at unsecured locations are particularly attractive targets. Police services have limited responses to crime in Indonesia. Police forces are under-funded and are plagued by corruption. Crime is particularly prevalent in the following areas: Tanjung Priok – Jembatan Tiga – Pluit toll road, the Jagorawi toll road, Galur, Gambir station, Lapangan Banteng, Matraman, Taman Suropati, Gunung Sahari, Senen, Kuningan Pondok Labu, Pancoran, Blok M, Jalan Sisingamangaraja, the junctions at Tomang, Slipi, Grogol, Jalan Daan Mogot and Jalan Kyai Tapa, Cililitan, around Taman Mini, Klender and Jalan Pemuda, Ancol and Pluit. Terrorism: Terrorism is a persistent threat in Indonesia, however, instances have reduced significantly since 2010 following successful counter-terror policies and operations. Jakarta’s most recent terror attack occurred in June 2017, when an assailant attacked two police officers at a mosque near the National Police headquarters in South Jakarta. The most significant recent incident in Jakarta occurred in January 2016. At least four militants reportedly detonated explosives in or near a Starbucks in central Jakarta before destroying a nearby police post with grenades, killing at least three men. An exchange of gunfire ensued when police arrived shortly afterwards. Attacks are likely to target Western and non-Muslim locations (such as churches) and are more likely to occur on days of significance – Christmas, during Ramadan etc. This is shown by the June 2018 attacks on churches in Surabaya. Terror attacks may involve various different tactics. In the recent past, terror groups have used grenades, bombs, knives, vehicles, and guns. Security at locations including western hotels has been increased substantially to combat potential threats. Corruption: Corruption is a longstanding, widespread, and systemic issue. The police (as mentioned) and judiciary are notoriously corrupt and are likely to request bribes or find in the favour of an Indonesian if in a case against a foreigner. Travellers have reported that customs and immigration officials have demanded bribes in order to gain entry into the country. Officials and police officers are more likely to request bribes during and before festivals. This trend is likely to be exhibited prior to, and during, the Asian Games. Civil Unrest: There are underlying religious, political, and ethnic tensions in Indonesia and Jakarta is the most common location for unrest. The government has mandated that all demonstrations should occur between 0600 and 1800hrs and at three locations – Gelora Bung Karno Stadium in Senayan, the Alun-alun Demokrasi civic square in the parliament complex in South Jakarta; and near the National Monument in Central Jakarta. However, protests can and have occurred at the Hotel Indonesia roundabout, the presidential palace, the House of Representatives complex on Jalan Gatot Subroto, Grand Mercure Hotel, Merdeka Square, government offices such as the Corruption Eradication Commission and the US embassy. All protests should be avoided as there is the potential for violence. In the event of Christian-Muslim tension, travellers should avoid sites with Christian significance, including the cathedral in Monas. Cybersecurity: Credit card fraud is common. Criminals sometimes place a fake telephone number on ATMs advising customers to report problems. Customers dialling the number are asked for their PIN and their card is then retained within the machine. Most incidents involve employees of small businesses recording the details of the credit card or swiping it through a skimmer. Travellers should only use cards in reputable establishments and should never allow their card to be taken out of their sight. Indonesia’s response to cybercrime is not coordinated or efficient despite the establishment of a cybercrime policing unit in 2018. Travellers are advised to employ enhanced cybersecurity measures while in country. Unsecured WiFi hotspots are especially at risk and should be avoided.

EVENT LOCATION INFORMATIOn

There will be four venue clusters for the 18th Asian Games: 1.Gelora Bung Karno Sports Complex – This area is home to the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium which will host the opening and closing ceremonies as well as athletics events. The Aquatics Centre, the Gelora Bung Karno Sports Palace, and Jakarta. 2.Jakarta Suburbs – A number of events will be held across Jakarta’s suburbs. Cycling events will be held at the Jakarta International Velodrome in Rawamangun, while golf will be held at the Pondok Indah Golf Course. A temporary venue, the Jakarta International Expo, will host a series of events including boxing and gymnastics. 3.Palembang – The Jakabaring Sport City complex at Palembang will host a series of other sports events. This includes tennis, women’s football, rowing/canoeing events, and shooting. 4.West Java – There are a small number of venues located in West Java, notably four stadiums for men’s football and road and mountain bike events. In total, nine locations in West Java will serve as hosts to different sporting events. The athlete’s village in Jakarta is built at Kemayoran. In Palembang, it is inside the Jakabaring Sport City.

GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE

All travel to Indonesia should be planned carefully in advance.
Travellers to Indonesia should maintain a low-profile, a slightly heightened level of situational awareness, and sensible security precautions at all times.
Travellers should be especially vigilant in crowded areas.
Take extra care of passports, credit cards, and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone, at night, or on public transport, due to the greater potential for crime.
Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves.
Road safety in Indonesia is poor. Locals are known to drive aggressively and routinely ignore road signs. If self-driving, a defensive style should be adopted. Due to the different culture and language, travellers should consider the use of a prearranged driver for all travel. Roads in Jakarta are often gridlocked in morning and evening rush hours.
Photographing military establishments and strategically important sites (such as airports) is not permitted and may lead to detention or arrest.
Only book taxis with a reputable firm. It is advised to book taxis through hotels rather than hailing them from the street. Make a note of the vehicle registration number.
Do not give out personal information and don’t discuss your plans with strangers.
Do not carry large sums of cash.

KEY LOCATIONS

US Embassy Jakarta Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan No.3-5, RT.11/RW.2, Gambir, Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10110, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 34359000 UK Embassy Jakarta Jalan Patra Kuningan Raya Blok L5 No.6, RT.6/RW.4, Kuningan Tim., Setia Budi, Kota Jakarta Selatan, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 12950, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 23565200 Australian Embassy Jakarta Jalan Patra Kuningan Raya Kav. 1-4, RT.6/RW.4, Kuningan Tim., Kota Jakarta Selatan, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 12950, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 25505555 Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital – government-run No.71, Salemba, Jalan Pangeran Diponegoro, Kenari, RW.5, Kenari, Senen, Kota Jakarta Pusat, Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta 10430, Indonesia Telephone: (62) (21) 1500135

SCAMS

ATM Skimmer: Skimmers on ATM machines are not uncommon. Always make sure the slot where you insert your card has nothing attached to it. These devices may be disguised to look like regular parts of an ATM, so check carefully. Try to use ATMs inside banks if possible.
The Airport Pickup: Fake drivers work at the airport. As you walk out of your gate you unexpectedly see a driver with your name on a board and knowledge of your hotel (information which has probably been fed to them by a member of cabin crew). En route to your hotel, your driver stops and demands money as fare, which you feel obliged to pay. Travellers should not accept unexpected trips and should follow journey management plans if pre-arranged drivers have been organised.
Taxis Parked in Front of Your Hotel: Many four and five-star hotels have taxis waiting outside all day. Despite appearances, these taxis are not associated with the hotel. These drivers may not switch on their meters when picking up passengers and instead insist on an excessive charge whilst already in motion. Travellers should avoid taxis waiting outside of hotels. Ask your hotel to order one for you from a reputable company and ensure they meter your journey. If the vehicle has a meter, it should be used. Taxi drivers have also been reported as taking intentionally extended journeys in order to overcharge fares.
Fake Blessings: There are numerous temples in Indonesia and while they are more prominent in Bali, the fake blessings scam can occur in Jakarta. It involves a fake priest or holy man who will offer blessings and demand a donation in return, showing a jar filled with high denomination notes. Avoid engaging with such individuals.
Airport Porters – Foreigners will be targeted at the airport by those who look like official staff who will offer to take your bag to your transportation before demanding a fee. At times they can be forceful in their actions. Be firm in your response if you do not want any assistance.
The Fake Money Changer – This scam has become synonymous with Indonesia. It involves money changers offering rates which seem too good to be true. There are a few tricks they can play after grabbing your attention. They may claim to only have IDR 10,000 notes and while counting in front of you, they use sleight of hand tricks without you realising. They are betting that a customer will not count the whole stack of currency. Some money changers have also been accused of using a rigged calculator, which can be quite effective due to the large denomination of the rupiah. Only use authorised money changers and know how much you should be receiving.

MEDICAL CONCERNS

All travellers to the Asian Games should visit their doctor at least six to eight weeks before arriving in Indonesia.
Travellers should ensure that they are up to date with all routine vaccinations before travelling. Most travellers should ensure that they have vaccinations for hepatitis A, tetanus, and typhoid. For some travellers, it may be advisable to have cholera, hepatitis B, Japanese encephalitis, rabies, and tuberculosis.
Travellers should take precaution against mosquito-borne diseases including malaria. This includes the use of insect repellent containing DEET and sleeping in a mosquito net.
Travellers should take the necessary precaution against sun- and heat-related illnesses. Sun creams with a sun protection factor (SPF) of 30 or above and 4 or 5 stars UVA (ultraviolet A) protection should be used. Travellers should also ensure that they drink plenty of non-alcoholic fluids.
If taking long-term prescribed medication, travellers should contact their local Indonesian diplomatic mission to ensure that the import of such medication does not contravene any local laws. Travellers should also ensure that they maintain the original prescription, consider having it notarised and translated, and that they have more than enough to cover the length of their stay. There may be a limited supply of medication in Indonesia.
Health facilities in Jakarta are generally below western standards, although some private hospitals offer western-level care. However, such care can be expensive. Travellers should ensure that they have adequate medical insurance to cover medical repatriation in case of severe incidents.
Travellers should avoid drinking tap water, drinks with ice or uncooked food such as salads – water is not potable in Indonesia. Bottled water is widely available.

KEY DATES

25 July 2014

The Olympic Council of Asia appointed hosts for the Games during a meeting in Kuwait City.

30 June 2018

Organisers announced that the 30 June marks the first day of ticket sales.

15 July 2018

Flame for the Asian Games lit in New Delhi, India.

19 July 2018

Relay of the Asian Games Flame begins in Indonesia.

21 July 2018

Gelora Sriwijaya Stadium in Palembang damaged due to a riot during a local football match.

08 August 2018

First events of the Games – Basketball – begin.

18 August 2018

Opening Ceremony to be held in the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium.

02 September 2018

Closing Ceremony to be held in the Gelora Bung Karno Stadium.

LOCAL ETIQUETTE

While the various ethnic/religious groups in Indonesia have their own traditions and cultural traits, the following information is helpful to remember for most groups.

Indonesians avoid direct confrontation and place a large social emphasis on saving face. An unenthusiastic ‘yes’ may, in fact, mean ‘no’ and Indonesians are more likely to say ‘maybe’ rather than ‘I don’t know’. Do not raise your voice with Indonesians, especially with the police. Staying calm makes it more likely that you will receive the help or service needed.
If giving something to an individual of a higher status, use two hands as a sign of respect.
Avoid crossing your legs while sitting and do not allow the bottom of your feet to face or point at another person.
Use your right hand to pass objects or eat food. The left hand is considered unclean. Do not touch food, pass or receive anything, touch anyone or point with your left hand.
Although there are no anti-gay laws (apart from in Aceh), there are also no laws protecting the LGBT community and an anti-pornography law has been used to raid gay entertainment venues.
The head is considered sacred; the head of others should not be touched.
Most restaurants and hotels include a service charge of 10 per cent in their bill. If not automatically added, then a tip of five to ten per cent is appropriate.
Standing with your arms on your hips may be interpreted as an angry and aggressive posture.
Pointing should only be done with the thumb, not the finger.
Indonesians generally expect punctuality for social or business events.
Due to the importance of religion in Indonesia, all travellers should dress conservatively, especially women. It is advisable to wear clothes which cover knees and shoulders. Displays of affection between members of the opposite sex are generally frowned upon and may attract unwanted attention.

SOLACE GLOBAL

Solace Global remains available to provide the full range of Travel Risk Management services to clients. Solace Global is also able to provide comprehensive travel tracking, crisis management, in-country journey management, meet and greet, 24/7 monitoring, response, and evacuation services. For further details please contact +44 (0)1202 795 801 or email sgr@localhost.

Week 29 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

22 July 18: Attack Reported near Baraawe, Somalia. A merchant vessel reported coming under attack at 01°06’N 044°02’E. Vessel and crew reported safe in Baraawe port. The reported location of the attack, less than 1000m off shore, likely indicates the attackers were opportunistic and presently lack the capability to launch attacks further afield. 25 July 18: Saudi Vessel Attacked near Al Hudaydah. Local media reporting suggests that a vessel, identified as the Saudi-flagged barge Dammam, was struck by the Houthi at 4°47’N 041°44’E. The method of attack or the level of damage remains unclear, but re-purposed surface-to-air missiles have previously been used.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

17 July 18: Libyan Coastguard Reportedly Destroyed Migrant Vessel. At least three people were reported to have died after refusing to board a Libyan Coastguard vessel after the Coastguard took action to scupper their boat and return the occupants to the Libyan shore. Details remain sparse, however accusations have been made against commercial ship operators for failing to rescue the group, with some Non-Governmental Organisations suggesting that these deaths are directly tied to the Italian Government’s recent practice of barring ships carrying migrants from their ports.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

22 July 18: Merchant Vessel Approached South of Lome, Togo. A merchant vessel at 01°30’N 001°15’E was approached by a blue and white fishing vessel. The fishing vessel launched two skiffs which attempted to board the MV. The MV’s evasive manoeuvres prevented skiffs closing to within 0.5nm. All crew and vessel reported safe. The significant distance from shore indicates that this group may seek to conduct further attacks throughout the Gulf of Guinea, and presently makes identifying their country of origin impossible.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

19 July 18: Theft from Vessel in Chittagong Anchorage, Bangladesh. Theives boarded a container vessel at 22°02’N 091°46’E undetected and escaped with three mooring ropes. Upon the alarm being raised, Bangladeshi law enforcement conducted a search, resulting in the stolen properties being returned to the vessel.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 29 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 29 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 29

Headlines From this Week

Israel Approves Jewish Nation-State Bill – The Israel parliament, or Knesset, approved a controversial bill which categorises Israel as a Jewish state and elevates the Hebrew language over Arabic. The passing of the bill saw furious scenes in the parliament building. This move is likely to bring protests not only within Israel but also on the borders of the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank.

Trump and Putin Meeting Fallout – President Trump faced widespread condemnation from across the US political spectrum for statements made after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, Finland. Trump has fluctuated between stating that Russia did and did not meddle in the 2016 election. A further meeting between the two, which has also seen widespread opposition, has been penned for Autumn 2018.

48 Dead in Mongolia Flooding – Widespread flooding, notably in the capital Ulaanbaatar and in provinces of Bayan-Ölgii, Khovd, Uvs, and Govi-Altai, have left at least 48 people dead in Mongolia. The adverse weather conditions have led to evacuations, damage to travel infrastructure, and power outages. Further heavy rainfall is forecast in parts of western, northern, and central Mongolia in the coming days, with the potential to exacerbate flooding and cause further disruption and risk to life.

Protests Continue in Iraq – Protests, which began in the southern city of Basra 08 July, have continued this week. At least 11 fatalities have been reported as the unrest over a lack of basic services, namely electricity shortages, has spread from Basra all the way to the capital Baghdad. 500 injuries have also been reported (including 300 members of the security forces) Demonstrators have also voiced grievances with corruption, unemployment, and water shortages. Security personnel have used live ammunition and water cannons to disrupt protests and telecommunications have been intermittently suspended.

Deadly Flooding in Niger – At least 13 people have been killed nationwide after heavy rainfall and flooding in Niger, with the most affected areas being Maradi, Agadez, and Diffa. In total, the adverse weather conditions have affected more than 17,000 people. Further rainfall is expected over the coming days.

Nicaragua Government Occupies Masaya – Pro-government forces retook the opposition stronghold of Masaya on 18 July after nearly 24 hours of skirmishes. Protesters and barricades have been cleared from the streets. Three fatalities were reported as a result of this operation. Unrest is set to continue nationwide.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pakistan General Election – The 2018 general election in Pakistan is set to be held on 25 July. The election may prove to be only the second democratic transfer of power in the country’s history. Former-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been banned from running in the election over corruption charges. The campaign period has seen a number of terror attacks targeting rallies and politicians. Pakistan’s security forces, a powerful political element in the country, have been accused of actively favouring the candidacy of Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party

Anti-IMF Protest in Argentina – Activists have planned another protest against the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to take place in the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires, on 21 July. The demonstration has been arranged to coincide with the visit of IMF chief Christine Lagarde. Activists are set to gather at the intersection of the Pueyrredon and Las Heras avenues starting at 1100hrs local time. It is unclear how many attendees should be expected but previous anti-IMF unrest has seen violence.

Mali Presidential Election – Mali will elect a new president on 29 July 2018. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has announced he will be running for a second term. The president of Mali is elected via a two-round system, with the victor requiring at least 50 per cent of the vote to win a five-year term in office. There are more than a dozen other candidates in the running for Mali’s top post. The election period is likely to lead to a spike in civil unrest and terrorism – much of Mali remains outside of the control of the central government in Bamako. Mali is also one of the world’s poorest countries and corruption is endemic.

Elections in Cambodia – Cambodia goes to the polls on 29 July 2018 to elect members of the sixth National Assembly. There are 125 seats to be contested with 63 required for a majority. The ruling party, the Cambodian People’s Party led by Hun Sen, is expected to win as the opposition and free media has been decimated by the government. Demonstrations are certainly possible before the election on 29 July but are more likely to be in favour of the regime. Travellers should avoid discussion of the alert as it may lead to arrest or a forceful response from local security officials.

Les Fetes de Bayonne – Bayonne Festival, dubbed the largest festival in France, is set to take place between 25 and 29 July in the French Basque city of Bayonne. The event is inspired by the Festival of San Fermin in Pamplona, Spain. A series of events occurs over these days and the city is expected to be crowded with tourists – this raises the potential for criminality.

Significant Dates and Events

07 to 29 July – France – Tour de France Cycle Race
19 to 22 July – United States – Summer X Games in Minneapolis
19 to 22 July – United Kingdom – The Open golf championship at Carnoustie
20 to 22 July – United Kingdom – Baggage handlers plan to strike at London Luton Airport
20 to 22 July – Germany – Formula One race weekend near Heidelberg
24 July – Ireland – Ryanair pilots to strike
20 to 22 July – United States – Rugby World Cup Sevens in San Francisco
21 July – Belgium – National Day
21 July – Guam – Liberation Day
21 July – Germany – Pro-refugee rally in Dusseldorf
21 July – France – Planned anti-violence march in Beaumont-sur-Oise
21 July to 05 August – United Kingdom – Women’s Hockey World Cup, London
21 and 25 July – Bangladesh – Garment rallies in Dhaka
22 July – Gambia – Revolution Day
22 July – Israel – Pro-LGBT nationwide strike
23 July – Egypt – Anniversary of the Revolution
23 July – Papua New Guinea – National Remembrance Day
23 July – Philippines – Anti-Duterte rally planned in Quezon City
23 July – Oman – Renaissance Day
23 and 26 July – Guinea – Further nationwide strikes scheduled for 23 and 26 July
25 July – Puerto Rico – Constitution Day
25 July – Spain – Ambulance workers in Malaga to strike
25 July – Cuba – National Revolution Day
25 July – Tunisia – Republic Day
26 July – Liberia – Independence Day
27-29 July – Hungary – Formula One race weekend in Budapest
28 July – Peru – Independence Day
28 July – United Kingdom – Eurostar staff at St Pancreas station to strike
28 July – Russia – Anti-pension reform rally planned in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 29 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 29 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 28 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

11 July 18: Suspicious Approach near Hanish Islands, Southern Red Sea. A merchant vessel sighted a group of skiffs at 13°22’N 042°45’E. One skiff, carrying eight persons, approached to within 0.2nm of the MV, and ladders were sighted. Embarked security personnel displayed their weapons and the skiff moved away.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

03 July 18: – Late Report – Tug Approached South West of Beyelsa, Nigeria. A tug boat was approached by a fishing boat and skiff. At 01°49’N 003°12’E. The skiff approached to within 0.5nm, but repeated attempts to come alongside were prevented by heavy swell and evasive actions. After five hours, the skiff moved away.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

06 July 18: – Late Report – Theft from Tug in Pulau Batam. Four coils of towline were stolen from a Singapore-flagged tugboat operating near Pulau Batam between 0130LT and 0330LT. Coastguard reported that the tug appeared to be followed by two Sampans for approximately two hours before the theft was discovered. All crew were unharmed 10 July 18: Theft at Anchor, Sandakan, Malaysia. An unknown number of robbers boarded a berthed tanker in Sandakan and escaped with ship’s properties. The theft was later discovered by duty crew members. Vessel and crew otherwise unharmed.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 28 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 28 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 28

Headlines From This Week

Nawaz Sharif Returns to Pakistan and Election Update – The Pakistan election season is in full swing. The former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, will return to the country late on 13 July after a court in Pakistan found him guilty on corruption charges which he argues are politically-motivated. His arrival will be met by a large crowd of supporters. In a separate incident, an election event in Peshawar held by the leftist, secularist ANP was attacked by the Pakistani Taliban. 20 were killed including a leader of the party. Further violence has occurred and should be expected until the 25 July polling day.
Unrest in Haiti – The poorest country in the Americas faced days of unrest after a 50 per cent hike in the price of fuel. Protesters set cars alight in the capital and other cities, resorting to looting in places. At least four people have been confirmed dead and many others injured. Despite the price hike, agreed with the IMF, being scrapped, protests look set to continue and further violence may also occur. A vote of no-confidence in the prime minister is set to be held on 14 July.
NATO Summit – President Trump publicly recommitted US support for NATO at the annual summit this week, though it was a tense affair given Trump’s recent actions and rhetoric. Indeed, behind closed doors, Trump reportedly ruffled a number of feathers, notably those of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. There has also been some disagreement over the commitments to be made regarding defence spending. President Trump followed the trip to Brussels with his first to the United Kingdom, where he has been greeted with protests. He has also induced friction with Prime Minister Theresa May, criticising her plans for Brexit and praising the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, who left his post earlier in the week.
Unrest in Northern Ireland – 12 July marked the annual commemoration of the Battle of the Boyne in 1690, with marches by Orangemen in various locations across Northern Ireland. The marches were preceded with days of unrest. In Belfast 13 vehicles were set on fire, while there were five nights of violence in the Bogside area of Derry, including the throwing of petrol bombs at police. Police also warned that the loyalist paramilitary force the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) planned to “orchestrate and participate in serious disorder” in east Belfast. While unrest was expected, events were more violent than in 2017.
Flooding in Japan – More than 200 people were killed and 54 are missing after heavy rains led to flash floods and landslides across central Japan. Those most severely hit were villages in the countryside and the area was unprepared for a series of meteorological phenomena all occurring at the same time.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Putin and Trump to Meet – The long-awaited meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin will take place from 16 July in the Finnish capital of Helsinki. President Trump has already said that the meeting with Putin may be his easiest while in Europe. Some American policymakers have reported fears that the US president will be outmatched by his Russian counterpart. Issues of Russian involvement in the 2016 US election, Ukraine, Syria, Iran, sanctions on Russia, and perhaps North Korea will feature heavily at the summit.
FIFA World Cup Final – After a month of competition, the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia comes to end as France plays Croatia on 15 July. The game will be played at the Luzhniki Stadium in Russia’s capital, Moscow, beginning at 1600hrs local time. Travellers can expect disruption in this area, and in France and Croatia where the game is likely to be most closely followed. The competition has been spared many of the security threats that were expected beforehand, though isolated incidents have occurred.
Bastille Day in France – France celebrates its national day, also known as Bastille Day, on 14 July. It marks the storming of the Bastille prison, where political prisoners were held, by rebels in 1790. This began an uprising which led to the overthrow of the monarchy. In Paris, the day is celebrated with a military parade from the Arc de Triomphe to the Place de la Concorde where President Macron will be assembled with other dignitaries. In 2016, a terrorist drove into crowds along the Promenade des Anglais. Bastille Day will also be celebrated in French overseas territories, including French Guiana.
Sandinista Revolution Anniversary – Nicaragua commemorates the victory of the National Liberation Army over the Somoza dictatorship on 19 July. This is likely to have greater meaning and impact this year as the country is in the throes of a civil uprising which has been ongoing since 18 April 2018, during which time at least 264 people have been killed in clashes. Unrest is ongoing, with the 19 July expected to be a day of heightened protest as it is the third and final day of a general strike.
Protests in Guinea – Protests are set to take place in Conakry, Guinea on 16 July. Previous protests have been deadly. It is strongly advised to avoid all large gatherings and maintain heightened levels of situational awareness in Guinea at all times. Travellers can also expect heightened security measures and travel disruption. It is unclear how well attended any demonstrations will be.

Significant Dates and Events

07 to 29 July – France – Tour de France Cycle Race
14 July – Italy – Pro-migrant rally to take place in Ventimiglia
14 July – Iraq – Republic Day
14 July – Israel – Anti-Netanyahu rally in Tel Aviv
14 July – South Korea – Anti-refugee rally in Seoul
14 July – Serbia – Anti-corruption march planned in Belgrade
14 July – Spain – Pro-Catalan independence march in Barcelona
15 July – Brunei – His Majesty the Sultan’s Birthday
15 July – Turkey – Democracy and National Solidarity Day (Anniversary of 2016 attempted coup)
16 July – Chile – Virgen del Carmen Day
16 July – Brazil – Doctors to strike in Porto Alegre
16 to 17 July – Botswana – President’s Day
17 July – Lesotho – King’s Birthday
17 July – South Korea – Constitution Day
18 July – Uruguay – Constitution Day
18 July – Argentina – Anniversary of the 1994 terror attack on the Jewish community centre, Buenos Aires
19 to 22 July – United States – Summer X Games in Minneapolis
19 to 22 July – United Kingdom – The Open golf championship at Carnoustie
19 July – Myanmar – Martyr’s Day
20 July – Greece – Rail workers to strike
20 to 22 July – United Kingdom – Baggage handlers plan to strike at London Luton Airport
20 and 24 July – Ireland – Ryanair pilots to strike
20 July – Spain – Security staff to strike at Ibiza Airport
20 to 22 July – United States – Rugby World Cup Sevens in San Francisco
20 July – Colombia – Independence Day
21 July – Belgium – National Day
22 July – Gambia – Revolution Day
23 July – Egypt – Anniversary of the Revolution
23 July – Oman – Renaissance Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 28 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 28 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 27 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

04 July 18: Suspicious Approach ENE of Muscat. Two white-hulled skiffs approached to within 500m of a merchant vessel at 24°02’N 059°55’E. Vessel and crew were reported safe. 04 July 18: Merchant Vessel Fired Upon in the Southern Red Sea. A merchant vessel transiting northwards in the Red Sea was approached by three high-speed skiffs at 13°33’N 042°40’E, near the Hanish islands. Each skiff contained up to eight armed persons, who fired upon the MV as they closed. Armed security personnel returned fire and compelled the attackers to abort their approach. Vessel and crew were reported safe.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

08 July 18: Italian Interior Minister to Bar Access to Rescue Vessels. Matteo Salvini, the Italian interior minister, announced his intent to close Italian ports to vessels conducting rescues of migrants in the Mediterranean. It remains possible that such a bar may extend to commercial vessels which rescued migrants under SOLAS obligations.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

03 July 18: Vessel Boarded in Lagos, Nigeria. A vessel anchored at 06°16’N 003°11’E was boarded by a lone intruder using the cover of darkness. The intruder was spotted by duty personnel and escaped in a small boat moored to the anchor chain.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

03 July 18: Vessel boarded in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Eight robbers boarded a bulk carrier anchored at 22°19’N 091°43’E. They tied up the duty watchman, and escaped having stolen the aft mooring rope. 03 July 18: Tug and Barge Boarded near Tanjung Piai. A tug boat and barge carrying a cargo of scrap metal was boarded by 10 individuals from six sampans at 01°12’N 103°33’E. The perpetrators stole cargo from the barge and fled as the alarm was raised.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 27 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 27 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 27

Headlines From This Week

Terror Attack in Mali – Insurgents in northern Mali conducted a significant improvised explosive attack against French and Malian forces in the Gao region. At least four civilians were killed and numerous civilians and soldiers were wounded during a direct attempt to destroy French armoured fighting vehicles. This attack may represent a step-change in insurgent capabilities in the region.

China Floods – At least 16 people have been killed and 10 others are wounded after heavy rainfall led to flooding in southwest China. Rains struck the provinces of Guangxi, Yunnan, Hunan, and most notably Sichuan. In Sichuan province alone, seven people have been killed, 120,000 impacted, and thousands forced to evacuate. Flooding has also been reported in Shaanxi in northwest China, the reservoir at the Three Gorges Dam is set for the first flood of the year.

Mexican Election – The Mexican General Election was held on 01 July and resulted in a resounding victory for the leftist candidate, Andres Obrador. Between 100-200 candidates were killed during the campaign season, particularly those standing for local administrative positions. It remains to be seen whether this violence will persist in the aftermath of the vote. The election itself took place relatively smoothly, with minimal disruption, and no noteworthy unrest. The new president’s focus against corruption is likely to face staunch resistance from lower levels of government where the influence of drug cartels is pervasive and widespread.

Malaysia’s Ex-Prime Minister Arrested – Najib Razak was arrested on 03 July, two months after losing a re-election bid, following widespread allegations of corruption and misappropriation of funds. Investigations into Razak, his wider party, and family are ongoing, with further arrests likely due to the theft of at least $4.5 billion dollars, laundered through a minimum of six other countries. No noteworthy unrest has yet occurred in response; however, if the investigation appears to become politically motivated, Razak’s supporters may be motivated to resist the investigation.
Rioting in Nantes – The French city of Nantes experienced two nights of rioting following the police shooting of a man during a stop and search. Rioters and police exchanged stones and teargas in the city centre on Wednesday and Thursday evenings, with public buildings, a community centre, and several vehicles set alight. Arrests are likely to follow. The police initially justified the shooting by claiming that the victim attempted to run officers down, however eyewitnesses claim the vehicle was static at the time of the shooting. The police officer who fired has been taken into custody whilst the investigation is ongoing and may face criminal charges.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Typhoon Maria – Typhoon Maria is anticipated to strike the southern Japanese island of Okinawa as a category four storm between 09 and 10 July. This classification means that the island is likely to be struck with winds of up to 156 miles per hour, as well as significant and violent rain. The outer edges of the storm are likely to cause disruption to air and sea travel to surrounding nations, including China, Taiwan, and mainland Japan.

President Trump to visit Europe – President Trump is scheduled to undertake a tour of Europe, attending a NATO summit in Belgium, a working visit to the UK, and a one-on-one meeting with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. President Trump’s itinerary is almost certain to attract widespread disruption and protest due to a widening gulf between Trump’s policy measures and the political positions of the European population; permits have already been issued for extensive demonstrations in London.

Naadam Festival in Mongolia – The national holiday of Naadam is scheduled to take place in Nepal between 10-13 July. The festival attracts extensive crowds to engage in and spectate competitions of wrestling, archery, and horse racing. The largest event is due to be held around the capital of Ulaanbaatar, however smaller events are likely to be held in most regions throughout the country. Normal services and business activities are likely to suffer extensive disruption.

Orange Parades in Northern Ireland – The anniversary of the Battle of the Boyne on 12 July is scheduled to be commemorated with widespread parades by the Protestant Orange Institution. The parades remain highly contentious in an environment where religious and social divides remain apparent after centuries of unrest and conflict. Travel disruption around urban areas is highly likely, and violent unrest remains a possibility. Overtly heightened security measures are likely to be in place.

Cambodian People Party Rally – The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) has planned to hold a rally in the Koh Pich (Diamond Island) area of Phnom Penh on 07 July. Preliminary estimates suggest that this pre-election rally is likely to attract upwards of 100,000 people from its start time of 05:30 locally. Traffic disruption and delays should be expected around the city, including around the airport. Several processions will take place to and from the event from various areas of the city until around 14:00. Other rallies will be held between now and the general election on 29 July 2018. Avoid large gatherings, demonstrations and political meetings.

Significant Dates and Events

02 to 15 July – United Kingdom – Wimbledon tennis tournament
06 to 08 July – United Kingdom – Formula One race weekend
06 to 12 July – Japan – Dozens of ANA flights cancelled due to engine inspections
06 to 13 July – Spain – Festival of San Fermin in Pamplona
06 to 07 July – Nicaragua – Opposition groups plan 48-hour general strike
07 to 29 July – France – Le Tour de France cycling race
07 July – United Kingdom – London Pride Parade
07 July – Cote d’Ivoire – Independence Day
07 July – Tanzania – Saba Saba Day
07 July – Spain – Madrid metro workers plan to strike
07 July – United Kingdom – Far-right group plan rally in Leeds
07 July – South Korea – Pro-Choice rally in Seoul
09 July – Argentina – Independence Day and Anti-IMF protest planned in Bueno Aires
09 July – South Sudan – Independence Day
09 July – Croatia – Croatia Airline staff to strike
10 July – Bahamas – Independence Day
10 July – Mauritania – Armed Forces Day
11 July – Belgium – Day of the Flemish Community
12 July – Sao Tome and Principe – Independence Day
12 July – Ireland – Ryanair pilots in Ireland to strike
13 July – Montenegro – Statehood Day
14 July – France – Bastille Day
14 July – Italy – Pro-migrant rally to take place in Ventimiglia
14 July – Iraq – Republic Day
15 July – Brunei – His Majesty the Sultan’s Birthday
15 July – Turkey – Democracy and National Solidarity day (Anniversary of 2016 attempted coup)
16 – 17July – Botswana – President’s Day
16 July – Brunei – Sultan’s Birthday, national holiday
17 July – Lesotho – King’s Birthday, national holiday
18 July – Uruguay – Constitution day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 27 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 27 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 26 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

28 June 18: BMP5 Replaced BMP4. Counter piracy and maritime security best practices have been updated, with BMP 5 being issued in response to the evolution of the threat picture in the Indian Ocean High Risk Area. Whilst region specific, a number of the guidelines and measures are applicable to vessels transiting other regions. 23 June 18: Unilateral Humanitarian Ceasefire. Internationally supported Yemeni government forces have conducted a unilateral “pause” in their offensive operations in Al Hudaydah, ostensibly to provide a window for humanitarian relief efforts. Initial estimates suggest a resumption of combat operations in early July, unless a significant breakthrough in negotiations follows. There is a possibility that the UN may seek control over the port as a neutral party to ensure continuing aid supply.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

25 June – 02 July 18: Over 160 Migrants Rescued off Spain. At least 160 migrants were rescued in a series of operations off the Spanish coast as the so-called “western route” to Europe appears to become more popular with traffickers. This may, in part, be a direct response to Italy’s recent efforts to halt the flow of migrants between itself and Libya. The sea journey between Africa and Spain is also significantly shorter than the Libya-Italy route, although Algeria and Morocco are less permissive to traffickers than the failed Libyan state. This increase in traffic may lead to increased disruption to commercial vessels as SOLAS obligations may force diversions and delays to rescue those in need.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

01 July 18: Vessel Attacked South of Bonny Island, Nigeria. A vessel came under attack by pirates at 04°08’N 006°57’E, 20 nm from Bonny Island, at 1040hrs. The vessel and crew were later reported safe. Further details of the attack remain unclear.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

27-29 June 18: Joint India-Bangladesh Naval Exercises. India and Bangladesh conducted their first joint naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal. The aim of the exercises were to enhance cooperation and interoperability against maritime crime and militancy in the region. 02 July 18: Human Trafficking Vessel Capsized off Penerang, Malaysia. An overloaded speedboat containing at least 44 illegal immigrants capsized 6nm off the coast of Penerang, southern Malaysia. At least one died, with a further 18 missing. Recovery and law enforcement operations led to an increase in air and marine traffic in the area.

General – Maritime Security Incidents

Maritime Global Security. A series of international shipping organisations have launched www.maritimeglobalsecurity.org to act as a repository for resources and information relating to maritime security threats and mitigations strategies around the world. This was launched concurrently with the issue of BMP5 for the Indian Ocean HRA.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 26 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 26 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 26

Headlines From This Week

Possible Assassination Attempts in Africa – On 23 June, two possible assassination attempts occurred in African nations. In the morning, two people were killed and dozens more injured at a rally held by Ethiopia’s reformist prime minister Abiy Ahmed in the capital Addis Ababa. In the afternoon, an explosion occurred at a rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, where President Mnangagwa had spoken. The president has accused a group with links to the former first lady, Grace Mugabe, for the attack which killed two and injured many more.
Ceasefire in South Sudan – South Sudan President Salva Kiir and his rival Riek Machar have agreed to a “permanent” ceasefire, which is due to take place within 72 hours of the agreement of the deal on 27 June. While both leaders have vowed that this ceasefire would be permanent, other such agreements have been broken. This agreement does form a foundation on which to build a lasting peace in the war-torn country.
Vietnam Flooding – Floods and landslides in northern Vietnam have left at least 22 dead and 11 more missing. Lai Chau and Ha Giang are the hardest hit provinces. Millions of dollars of damage have been reported. While rescue efforts are underway, access to many of the worst hit areas has been cut off.
Protests in Tehran – Iran’s capital has been beset by unrest this week over a dramatic depreciation in the value of the country’s currency, the rial. At one point, protesters shut down Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, an economic centre and a place which gained notoriety in the 1979 revolution. Economic and labour protests are likely to continue or intensify as the reinstatement of US-led sanctions takes hold.
Herders in Nigeria Conduct Further Attacks – At least 86 people were confirmed dead after clashes between nomadic Fulani herdsmen and villagers in Nigeria’s Plateau State. In response to the violence, a curfew has been implemented between 1800 and 0600hrs local time in the state. Issues related to overpopulation, ethnicities, religion, and climate change have contributed to the conflict. The death toll from herdsmen attacks since 2015 has exceeded those inflicted by the Islamist terror group Boko Haram for the same period.
Mass Shooting in Maryland, USA – The 154^th mass shooting in the United States this year took place on 28 June at the Capital Gazette newspaper headquarters in Annapolis, Maryland, in an attack which killed five people. The attacker was subsequently arrested and is alleged to be an individual with a personal grievance with the newspaper; police are yet to confirm this. In the aftermath of the attack, the New York Police Department deployed a counterterrorism team to protect media outlets including the New York Times.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Continued Protests in Nicaragua – Activists are set to rally in Managua on 30 June in opposition to what they see as repressive government policies – at least 285 have been killed, 1500 injured, and 156 reported missing in more than two months of protests. The protest is set to begin in morning hours, with thousands expected to attend. While it is intended to be peaceful, clashes with security forces are possible, meaning that all gatherings should be avoided. Activists have also accused the government of using paramilitary groups to help carry out its repressive measures.
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day – 01 July marks the transfer of Hong Kong from British to Chinese control on the same date in 1997. It is common for this day to be met with protests by civil and human rights groups demanding universal suffrage and other democratic norms. Clashes and disruption are possible this year as activists will march from Victoria Park’s football pitches, then head down Hennessy Road towards Admiralty. Authorities in the Chinese territory had previously ordered that the protest takes place at Victoria Park’s Central Lawn.
Wimbledon Tennis Tournament Begins – The annual Wimbledon tennis championship begins on 02 July ending on 15 July. Security is set to be at its highest level ever in 2018, with staff trained in ‘behaviour detection’. Armed police officers will patrol the All England Club, and thorough searches will take place at all gates. Those attending the event should allow plenty of time to pass through security checks.
Pamplona Bull Run – The Festival of San Fermin, known by many as the Pamplona Bull Run, takes place between 06 and 13 July 2018. In the 2017 event, five men, known as the “wolfpack”, were accused of raping an 18-year-old woman but were only convicted of sexual abuse. The ruling, and the subsequent release of the men, was met by significant unrest. The 2018 event is likely to be met with protests in locations across the country including in Pamplona; demonstrations by animal rights activists are possible too.
Le Tour de France Begins – The most prestigious annual cycling event, the Tour de France, begins on 07 July in Noirmoutier-en-L’île. The 105^th edition of the event will finish on Paris’s Champs-Elysees on 29 July after 21 days of racing. Unusually, all stages of the race will occur in France, minus a 15km entry into Spain during a day in the Pyrenees. The event often leads to road closures and travellers can expect enhanced security measures, especially at the final stage in Paris.

Significant Dates and Events

25 June to 02 July – Mauritania – African Union summit in Nouakchott
29 June to 01 July – Austria – Formula One Grand Prix
30 June – Norway – Oslo Pride parade
30 June – DR Congo – Independence Day
30 June – Sudan – Revolution Day
30 June – Seychelles – Independence Day
30 June – Ecuador – LGBT Pride Parade
01 July – Hong Kong – HKSAR Day and Pro-democracy rally
01 July – Mexico – General Election
01 July – Russia – Protests planned nationwide
01 July – China – Chinese Communist Party founding day
01 July – Canada – Canada Day
01 July – Ghana – Republic Day
01 July – Rwanda – Independence Day
01 July – Somalia – Independence Day
01 July – Turkey – LGBT Pride Parade in Istanbul
02 – 03 July – Zambia – Heroes’ Day followed by Unity Day
03 July – Belarus – Independence Day
04 July – Rwanda – Liberation Day
05 July – Algeria – Independence Day
05 July – Armenia – Constitution Day
05 July – Venezuela – Independence Day
05 July – Czech Republic/Slovakia – Saints Cyril and Methodius’ Day
06 July – Comoros – Independence/National Day
06 July – Lithuania – Statehood Day
06 July – Malawi – Independence Day
07 July – Cote d’Ivoire – Independence Day
07 July – Tanzania – Saba Saba Day
07 July – Spain – Madrid metro workers plan to strike
07 July – United Kingdom – Far-right group plan rally in Leeds
07 July – South Korea – Pro-Choice rally in Seoul

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 26 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 26 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 25 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

19 June 18: CMF Releases Bulletin to Shipping Industry. In response to two recent attacks on 3 June on WHO vessel VOS Theia, and 13 June attack on a Saudi warship, both of which occurred off the coast of Al Hudaydah, a bulletin was released to inform shipping operators of the risks on merchant vessels transiting the High Risk Area. Since the attack on the MV Ince Inebolu, there have been no further reports on merchant vessels. The more recent attacks on the aforementioned vessels are due to their being involved in or affiliated with the conflict. Although the risk to merchant vessels not involved in the current Yemeni conflict remains unchanged, there is potential for the conflict to spill-over. The risk of being misidentified, or being susceptible to collateral damage, is a realistic possibility. Vessels are recommended to utilised the Maritime Security Transit Corridor and maximise the distance from Yemen’s islands and coastline. Vigilance should be maintained and be supported by timely reporting of encounters or incidents to the UKMTO. 26 June 18: Suspicious Approach in Bab El Mandeb, Red Sea. The vessel was approached by two speedboats in position 13°30’24N, 42°43’42E at 0708UTC. Each carried 8-10 persons on board. The embarked armed security team showed weapons and the speedboats departed. Speedboats had previously approached two other MVs in the area.

Mediterranean – Maritime Security Incidents

June 18: Merchant Vessel Caught in Migrant Dispute with Italy, with 113 Migrants Onboard. Due to SOLAS, captains of merchant vessels are required to rescue individuals in distress at sea. Media reports the container Alexander Maersk remains anchored off Pozzallo, Italy after responding to an emergency call and rescuing 113 migrants. Italy’s ports currently remain closed even to military vessels of NATO allies which have migrants on board. The USNS Trenton was delayed off Augusta, Sicily and could not bring 41 rescued migrants ashore. As the political debate continues, there are likely to be further costs and delays to merchant shipping.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

18 May 18: Late Report of Armed Robbery on Bulk Carrier; Tarahan Anchorage, Indonesia. Five robbers armed with knives boarded an anchored bulk carrier in position 5°32’S, 105°18’80E at 1935UTC. They took hostage the duty man and threatened him. The robbers stole ships property and engine spares and escaped. The duty man was able to free himself and raise the alarm. The crew mustered and a search was conducted on the ship.

Click link to Download PDF: 20180625 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 25 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 25 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 25

Headlines From This Week

Flooding in Abidjan – At least 18 people have been confirmed dead after heavy rainfall overnight on the 18-19 June in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire. The government has called for evacuations from flood-prone areas of the city after flood waters rose to 2.5 metres in places. The military has been deployed to undertake disaster relief. Cote d’Ivoire is currently in its rainy season, with heavy rains forecast until the end of the month.
Push for Peace in South Sudan – President Salva Kiir and his former deputy turned rebel leader Riek Machar held face-to-face talks on 20 June in Addis Ababa, brokered by Ethiopia’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. The two South Sudanese political heavyweights last met at the outbreak of deadly fighting in Juba in July 2016. Machar has since been living in exile. South Sudan has been in a state of almost consistent civil conflict being formed in 2011.
Significant Earthquake in Japan – Three people were killed after a magnitude-6.1 earthquake struck Osaka prefecture on 18 June. A further 350 people were reported injured. While no tsunami warning was issued in the aftermath of the quake, fears remain that there will be stronger seismic events in the coming weeks which could cause cataclysmic damage.
Macedonia Naming Deal – On 17 June, Macedonian and Greek leaders agreed to end a 27-year dispute regarding the name of Macedonia, with the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) changing its name to the Republic of North Macedonia. The dispute has been bitter and has prevented Macedonia joining NATO and the EU. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras narrowly survived a vote of no-confidence due to the deal, which still needs to be ratified by both
Death Sentence for Aman Abdurrahman – On 22 June 2018, a court in Jakarta found Aman Abdurrahman guilty of inciting others to commit terrorism and sentenced him to death. He stands accused of being the leader of an Indonesian affiliate of Islamic State. This act may cause Aman to become a martyr in the eyes of many radical Muslims in Indonesia and further afield, increasing the potential for retaliatory terror attacks.
Tit-For-Tat Trade Tariffs – The EU retaliatory tariffs on a series of US imports, issued in response to President Trump’s tariffs, came into effect on 22 June. Meanwhile, India has announced it will raise taxes on 29 US products from 04 August. There is a significant potential for a trade war between the United States and its traditional allies, further damaging the post-World War Two western alliance system.

What To Look Out For Next Week

General Election in Mexico – The Mexican general election is to be held on 01 July, electing thousands of positions from local councillors to the president. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leftist populist, is most likely to win the presidential election, heading a politically-mixed coalition. The campaign period has been beset by unrest and violence, with at least 100 political candidates killed.
Nationwide Local Elections in Indonesia – Local elections are due to take place in Indonesia on 27 June. The elections come on the back of recent terror attacks in the country and there is the potential that militants will seek to disrupt the vote. Political unrest may occur nationwide, with a heightened risk in Papua, Maluku, and West Kalimantan provinces.

Unions Call for General Strike in Argentina – The largest union in Argentina, the Confederación General del Trabajo (CGT), has announced plans to launch a general strike on 25 June. The move comes in opposition to the economic policies of President Macri, who recently agreed on a multibillion-dollar loan with the International Monetary Fund. Public demonstrations have not been planned at this time. Travel to, from, and within Argentina is expected to be significantly disrupted around this date.

AU Summit in Mauritania – 31st Ordinary Session of the African Union Summit is due to take place in Nouakchott, Mauritania between 25 June and 02 July. Increased security measures and travel restrictions should be expected across the city, notably at the Conference Centre located within the vicinity of OumTounsy Airport. France’s President Macron is set to visit during the summit, departing on 03 July.

General Strike in Costa Rica – Labour unions are planning a general strike to take place on 25 June. Those in the country can expect extensive travel delays and the potential for related protests, with the capital San Jose likely to be most significantly affected. If the general strike does take place, it is expected to cost the economy somewhere between $10 million and $15 million dollars.

Alexei Navalny Plans 01 July Protests – Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny is urging Russians to take to the streets on 01 July in response to the government’s plans to increase the retirement age. Navalny has filed requests for demonstrations in 20 cities but they are not set to conflict with any FIFA World Cup matches. Russian authorities are likely to make arrests before and during the protests; violence is possible.

Significant Dates and Events

22-24 June – France – Formula One Grand Prix
23 June – Estonia – Victory Day
23 June – Finland and Latvia – Midsummer’s day holiday
23 June – Luxembourg – National Day
23 June – Ethiopia – Pro-government rally in Addis Ababa
23 June – Burkina Faso – Opposition rally planned in Ouagadougou
23 June – United Kingdom – Pro-EU “People’s Vote March” in London
23 June – Angola – Protest planned in Uige province
23 June – United States – Pro-immigration rally in San Francisco
23 June – United States – Anti-poverty rally in Washington DC
23 June – Kazakhstan – Anti-Nazarbayev rallies planned
23 June – Portugal – Festival of Sao Joao de Porto
23 June – South Korea – Anti-North Korea protest in Seoul
24 June – Philippines – Manilla Day
24 June – Turkey – General Election
24 June – Niger – Unsanctioned anti-finance law protest in Niamey
25 June – Croatia – Statehood Day
25 June – Mozambique – Independence Day
25 June – Canada – Anti-Trump protest in Montreal
26 June – Azerbaijan – Armed Forces’ Day
26 June – Madagascar – Independence Day
27 June – Djibouti – Independence Day
27 June – Sri Lanka – Poson Full Moon holiday
27 June – Tajikistan – National Unity Day
28 June – Ukraine – Constitution Day
28 June – France – Potential general strike
29 June – Seychelles – Independence Day
29 June to 01 July – Formula One Grand Prix
30 June – Norway – Oslo Pride parade
01 July – Hong Kong – HKSAR Day and Pro-democracy rally

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 25 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 25 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 24 – Maritime Weekly Security Snapshot

Indian Ocean HRA – Maritime Security Incidents

13 June 18: Houthis Report Strike on Coalition Warship. The location of the incident is unknown, local Yemeni media stated the warship was seen burning and rescue operations were conducted for the crew. This incident is unconfirmed. 18 June 18: Houthis Detain French Sailor in Hodeidah Port. According to regional media reports, a French sailor has been detained for two weeks by Houthi forces in Hodeidah, although this is unconfirmed. He was forced to call at the port after a storm led to a technical malfunction on his sailboat MY Jehol 11. 18 June 18: UN Aim to Control Hodeidah Port, Yemen. Hodeidah is the main distribution point for commercial and humanitarian supplies to Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition hopes to seize the port militarily from the Houthis; however, a UN envoy is aiming to broker a deal for the port to be administered independently.

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

09 June 18: Tanker Boarded in Lagos. At least one robber was reported to have boarded a tanker in position 6°27’00N, 003°22’18E. A hose was inserted into a cargo tank. After being seen, the robber escaped the vessel and into a nearby speedboat. 13 June 18: Supply Vessel Boarded in Takoradi Anchorage. Robbers boarded a Singapore-flagged supply vessel anchored at 4°53’60N, 1°42’30W at 0245UTC. Watchmen shouted at the robbers and raised the alarm. Seeing the alerted crew the robbers escaped. 18 June 18: Militant Groups Threaten to Attack Oil Facilities in Niger Delta. Niger Delta Activists Forum have warned of planned attacks on oil facilities belonging to Agip. These threats were made in response to the group’s claim that previous agreements have not been implemented, as well as pollution of the area.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

31 May 18: Tanker Boarded Near Mersing, Malaysia. A late report was released of an oil tanker that was boarded whilst at anchor in position 2°25’30N, 104°25’11E at 0104UTC. Fourteen robbers stole personal belongings from the crew and fled via a stolen vessel. Malaysian Special Forces were able to track and apprehend the robbers who were armed with knives and machetes. Two crew members were injured during the attack.

Click link to Download PDF: 20180618 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 24 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 24 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 24

Headlines From This Week

Coalition Assault on Al-Hudaydah – The Saudi-backed Yemeni government has commenced ground operations in an effort to retake the port city of Al-Hudaydah on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. The offensive has been accompanied by a massive escalation in airstrikes into the city, and at least one Coalition landing craft was critically damaged. As the port is the main entry point for aid, the assault is likely to significantly worsen the humanitarian crisis in the surrounding region and may result in a longer-term increase in both migration and maritime criminality.

Vessel Collision on the Volga – At least 11 of the 16 people aboard a tour vessel in Volgograd were reported dead following a collision with a cargo barge on the Volga river on 12 June. Preliminary investigations suggest that the captain of the ferry was under the influence of alcohol at the time of the collision. The issue highlights poor safety measures and accountability in Russia’s leisure sector at a time when significant numbers of foreigners are in the country for the FIFA World Cup.

Nationalist Protests in Vietnam – Dozens were arrested on 10 and 11 June as protesters clashed with police in a series of Vietnamese towns and cities scheduled to become part of new Special Economic Zones. Whilst the some protests were relatively contained, in larger towns police were forced to deploy water cannons to clear streets as officers were pelted with improvised weapons. The proposed zones include special privileges to foreign businesses establishing themselves in the region, and would particularly benefit Chinese companies. Tensions between China and Vietnam have risen lately over a series of territorial and resource disputes along their maritime border.

Peruvian Police Ambushed – Four Peruvian police officers were killed when an improvised explosive device was detonated against their vehicle on the Churcampa-Anco highway in Huaccoto on 08 June. The officers were returning from providing enhanced security during Flag Day when the attack was launched. Another patrol which responded to the initial attack also came under fire and was forced to fight their way to the site. Despite efforts at reconciliation since 2000, small rebel groups persist in rural areas of the country and intermittently conduct attacks against security forces.

Insurgent Clashes in Davao – Philippine troops clashed with insurgents in the southern region surrounding Davao on 10 June. Government releases suggest that the group involved in the conflict was affiliated with the Islamic State group. At least 15 insurgents were reported killed, and arms caches and a bomb-making facility were also discovered during the raid.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Afghan Ceasefire – The Afghan Taliban agreed to a three-day ceasefire with government forces over the holiday of Eid at the end of Ramadan, likely to be 15-18 June, in direct response to the government’s unilateral declaration in early June. Despite the planned duration only being short, and foreign troops being excluded, this marks the first such concession in over 16 years of fighting. It remains unclear if all the disparate elements of the Taliban will abide by the ceasefire. Other groups such as Islamic State will not be included.

People’s Vote March – The movement for a “People’s Vote” on the terms of the UK’s Brexit from the European Union is due to hold a march to London’s Parliament Square on 23 June. Previous events organised by groups opposed to Brexit have resulted in turnouts of several thousand people, with the potential for significant localised travel disruption. The rally is also likely to attract counter-protesters and limited instances of violence may occur.

Colombia’s Presidential Run-Off – Colombia’s land borders will be closed across 16 and 17 June, with some closures persisting longer, as part of the security measures implemented during the election period. The scheduled vote is the runoff for the presidential election, and is likely to see political rallies across the country as populist right- and left-wing candidates face off. The election also has potential ramifications for the county’s peace agreements, as the leading candidate, Ivan Duque, remains opposed to the present treaty with the FARC group or any future compromise with the ELN.

Turkish General Election – On 24 June, Turks will go to the polls to elect officials to an array of local and national positions. This will be the first election following a close and controversial referendum to impose sweeping constitutional changes, moving the centre of power from parliament and the prime minister to the presidency. The election retains an ethnic and cultural dimension, and reports of voter suppression efforts have surfaced. A deadly confrontation between a candidate’s security details and Kurdish citizens in Suruc highlighted the risk of instances of violent unrest in the lead up to the poll, particularly in mixed areas.
Togo General Strike – Togo’s main opposition group have called for a nationwide strike on 18 June in response to persistent government efforts to suppress protests and dissent. This call follows a protracted and failed effort to negotiate a return to the rule of law and the 1992 constitution. Businesses and services across the country are likely to adhere to the strike, with Lomé almost certain to suffer the greatest disruption. It is likely that many of the strikers will attend protests or rallies, and these may become violent when confronted by police.

Significant Dates and Events

16 June – Austria – Pride parade to be held in Vienna
16 June – Malaysia – Hari Raya Puasa holiday
16 June – South Africa – Youth Day
16 June – Israel – Anti Netanyahu rallies to be held in Tel Aviv
17 June – Argentina – Martin Miguel de Guemes Day
17 June – Iceland – Independence Day
17 June – Dominican Republic – Anti-corruption rally to be held in Santo Domingo
17 June – Ukraine – Gay pride march to be held in Kiev
18 June – Bermuda – National Heroes Day
18 June – Cambodia – King’s Mother’s Birthday
18 June – Seychelles – Constitution Day
19 June – Trinidad and Tobago – Labour Day
19 June – Uruguay – Artigas’ Birthday, national holiday
20 June – Argentina – National Flag Day
21 June – Bolivia – Andean New Year
21 June – Greenland – Ullortuneq national holiday
22 June – Croatia – Anti-Fascist Struggle Day
22 June – Fiji – National Sport and Wellness Day
22 June – Finland and Sweden – Midsummer eve holiday
23 June – Estonia – Victory Day
23 June – Finland and Latvia – Midsummer’s day holiday
23 June – Luxembourg – National Day
24 June – Philippines – Manilla Day
25 June – Croatia – Statehood Day
25 June – Mozambique – Independence Day
25 June – Costa Rica – Nationwide public service strike
26 June – Azerbaijan – Armed Forces’ Day
26 June – Madagascar – Independence Day
27 June – Djibouti – Independence Day
27 June – Sri Lanka – Poson Full Moon holiday
27 June – Tajikistan – National Unity Day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 24 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 24 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 23

Headlines From This Week

Volcan de Fuego – A series of eruptions of the Guatemalan Volcan de Fuego has resulted in at least 99 fatalities, numerous injuries, and disruption to air travel across the country. Some reports suggest over 1000 people remain unaccounted for, and evacuation orders remain in place for a number of villages in the vicinity of the volcano. The closest of these has been almost entirely buried by ash from the eruption.
Jordanian PM Resigns – The prime minister of Jordan was forced to resign on 04 June following several days of widening protests across Amman, and other major Jordanian cities. The protests were initiated by a series of proposed reforms to the tax, benefits, and subsidies system which supports a significant proportion of the Jordanian population; and seen principally to benefit the elite. King Abdullah spoke in favour of the protesters, whilst emphasising that some reforms remained necessary. It remains to be seen if an appropriate compromise can be reached.
Zimbabwean Opposition Protests – Members of the Movement for Democratic Change, Zimbabwe’s dominant opposition party, held large protests in Harare on 05 June. They focused on allegations the ruling party has manipulated voter rolls ahead of the July 2018 election and were seeking to use intimidation or ballot tampering to swing the election. Whilst these protests occurred peacefully, the first election since the departure of the former dictator, Robert Mugabe, is highly likely to see further protests, and outbreaks of violence are a realistic probability.

Sadr City Explosion – At least 18 people were killed, and 38 were wounded when an explosion tore apart a Shiite mosque and 20 residential buildings in Baghdad’s Sadr City on 07 June. Preliminary investigations suggested that the blast occurred when a paramilitary group’s weapons cache, stored in the mosque, was accidentally detonated. The blast demonstrates that the highly pervasive nature of explosives and weapons ownership in Iraq remains a significant threat to life, even when those weapons are not being intentionally used.
Madagascar PM Resigns – The Madagascan prime minister (PM) was forced to resign on 06 June, following persistent, violent, and widespread unrest against the introduction of laws seen to prevent opposition candidates from contesting elections. The new PM, Christian Ntsay, was appointed by the president as a consensus candidate, although a history of defections between parliamentary parties since the last election threatens to undermine the balance of power within the legislature and may prevent a resolution to the crisis.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Singapore Nuclear Summit – On 12 June, US President, Donald Trump, is scheduled to meet the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, for a summit concerning North Korea’s nuclear programme and elevated tensions on the Korean peninsula. The summit is scheduled to be held on an island off the Singapore coast. Those in the city should expect significantly heightened security measures to be in place throughout the duration of the summit, and travel disruption is highly likely. The relative success or failure of the summit will have significant political and military effects on the Asia-Pacific region.

South Korean General Elections – South Korean citizens will head to the polls to elect local officials and to fill a series of seats vacant in the national assembly. Elections in South Korea are generally peaceful in nature, however, their proximity to the North Korea Summit, representing key issues in South Korean foreign and domestic politics, may lead to a higher level of unrest than is typical.
FIFA World Cup – The first match of the football world cup is due to kick off on Thursday 14 June in Moscow, Russia. The Russian government has announced a sweeping range of security measures to be implemented across the country, centred on the cities where games are to be held. Those in Russia are advised to remain aware of games scheduled in their vicinity and plan their journeys accordingly; a large transient population and significantly increased security are likely to impact the host cities on days surrounding each match.

Eid-al-Fitr – The festivals marking the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan is scheduled to begin on 14 June. The celebrations may occur on this date or shortly after, as there is no consensus among the international Muslim community as to the exact rules concerning the lunar observations which set the festival’s date. Travellers throughout the Middle East, and other countries with significant Muslim populations, should expect widespread disruption to travel and the provision of essential services as it is typically observed as a national holiday.

US Pride Parades – Major cities across the United States are due to hold Gay Pride parades on 09 June. These parades vary in size and may include numerous other official events related to the main parade. LGBT rights remain contentious in many locations across the US, with a number of political and religious groups staunchly opposed to the ongoing liberalisation of laws and society in relation to LGBT relationships. It is therefore likely that parades will attract counter-protesters, and there remains potential that some limited instances of violence may occur.

Significant Dates and Events

09 June – Uganda – National Heroes Day
09 June – Bulgaria – Pride parade and counter-protests to be held in Sofia
09 June – United States – Pride parades to be held in major cities
09 June – DR Congo – Opposition rallies to be held in Kinshasa
09 June – Austria – Anti-Israeli groups to rally at Vienna’s Bundeslanderplaz
10 June – DR Congo – Reconciliation Day
10 June – Portugal – National Day
10 June – Georgia – Protests scheduled in Tbilisi in response to murder acquittal
11 June – South Africa – Civil servants to conduct nationwide strike
11-12 June – Bangladesh – Night of Destiny (national holiday)
11 June – Colombia – Sacred Heart (national holiday)
11-12 June – Russia – National Day
11 June – Paraguay – Chaco Armistice Day
11-14 June – Haiti – Workers to strike and protest in Port-au-Prince
12 June – Philippines – Independence Day
12 June – Sri Lanka – Railway workers to begin nationwide indefinite strike
12-13 June – Portugal – Rail workers’ strike
13 June – South Korea – Local elections
14 June – Eid al-Fitr – National holiday in many Muslim-majority countries
15 June – Azerbaijan – National Salvation Day
15 June – Bangladesh – Jumatul Bidah
16 June – Austria – Pride parade to be held in Vienna
16 June – Malaysia – Hari Raya Puasa holiday
16 June – South Africa – Youth day
17 June – Argentina – Martin Miguel de Guemes day
17 June – Iceland – Independence Day
18 June – Bermuda – National Heroes Day
18 June – Cambodia – King Mother’s birthday
18 June – Seychelles – Constitution Day
19 June – Trinidad and Tobago – Labour day

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 23 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 23 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.