Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45

Headlines From This Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump presently in Vietnam as part of a five-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour has resulted in substantially enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. The Japanese, Korean and Chinese visits occurred without violent issues. Disruption to travel, however, is highly likely to occur in the locations he is yet to visit. Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila are the final locations to host the President’s tour.
Typhoon Damrey – Struck Vietnam as a Category Two storm through 03 to 05 November. Extremely high rainfall led to extensive flooding, particularly in central Vietnam, with at least 106 people being killed, and approximately 200 remaining missing. Initial estimates suggest that over $330 million of damage was caused, with over 116,000 homes suffering extensive damage.
Corruption Arrests in Saudi Arabia – A new anti-corruption committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, detained approximately 200 senior officials, including senior ministers and members of the House of Saud royal family. This marked a substantial departure from the norm within the Kingdom, issues within the royal family are generally resolved out of the public eye. Two senior princes also died, one in a helicopter crash, and one in mysterious circumstances, although these deaths cannot be directly linked to the apparent purge.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Resigned – The Lebanese Prime Minister, al-Harari, resigned whilst in Saudi Arabia, potentially triggering a crisis in the precariously balanced political structure of the country. Al-Harari alleged his resignation was due to the threat of assassination. His presence in Saudi Arabia has, however, led to speculation that he may have been entangled in the Kingdom’s corruption scandal, or otherwise pressured into resignation as part of a broader Saudi power-play in the region. There is a realistic probability that sectarian unrest in Lebanon will follow.
Liberian Elections Delayed – the Liberian Supreme Court delayed the second round of the Liberian presidential elections due to allegations of malpractice by the third-placed candidate. The basis of these allegations has yet to be established; international observers raised no issues. There is a possibility of unrest between the supporters of the three major parties. A new poll date has yet to be confirmed.
Catalan Officials Charged with Rebellion – Six senior former members of the Catalan regional government have been charged by the Spanish government with rebellion and sedition. The allegations centre to their activities in support of the illegal Catalan independence referendum. The former Catalan prime minister, Charles Puigdemont, remains in Brussels with an outstanding extradition request. Protests can be expected across Catalonia for the duration of court proceedings.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ASEAN Summit – The Association of South East Asian Nations is scheduled to meet between 13-15 November in Manila, the Philippines. The dates of the summit have been declared “non-working days” in Manila and the surrounding provinces. Extensive disruption should be expected to services, although major banks will remain open across the Metro Manila area. Substantially enhanced security measures and road closures should be expected.
Russia-Turkey Summit – Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are scheduled to conduct a summit in Sochi, Russia, concerning future economic cooperation, and military activities in Syria. The outcome of this summit is likely to have a substantial impact in the balance of power between the various military and paramilitary groups operating in Iraq and Syria.

Significant Dates & Events

11 November – Angolan independence day
12 November – Equatorial Guinea to hold general elections
12 November – Slovenian presidential elections
12 November – Anti-racism rally to be held in central Montreal
13 November – Mykonos Airport, Greece, to close until 29 November due to scheduled maintenance
13 November – Somaliland regional elections
14 November – Irish railway workers to conduct a 24 hour strike
15 November – Republic Day in northern Cyprus
15 November – Sikh festival, Guru Nanak’s birthday celebration
16 November – General election to be held in Tonga
17 November – Pakistan People’s Party due to hold protests in central Punjab

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 45 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 45 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Nov 17: Suspicious Approach in Lome Anchorage, Togo. A merchant vessel was approached at 0030UTC by a boat containing seven masked persons, who attempted to board. A Togo Navy patrol vessel responded to MV’s distress call and the suspicious vessel moved away. MV and crew were unharmed. 03 Nov 17: Niger Delta Avengers End Ceasefire.. The Niger Delta Avengers, a militant group which caused substantial disruption to oil and gas facilities in 2016, announced the termination of its ceasefire with the Nigerian government. No attacks have yet occurred, but the group retains the capability and intent to conduct attacks in the region. 06 Nov 17: Kidnapped Missionaries Recovered. Three of four British missionaries and aid workers kidnapped from their camp in the Niger Delta were recovered unharmed by security forces. The fourth kidnap victim died in captivity. 08 Nov 17: Operation Crocodile Smile II Complete. The Nigerian Army declared Operation Crocodile Smile, an operation to dismantle militant and criminal groups in the south of the country and the Delta region, a success. Official reporting suggests that 46 illegal oil bunkers were located and destroyed, along with the associated equipment. The recent spike in pirate activity in the Gulf of Guinea may have been due to criminal groups relocating their activities whilst this operation was ongoing.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

08 Nov 17: Two Skiffs Approached a Merchant Vessel in the Bab el Mandeb. A Merchant Vessel in position 1230N 04337E, near Mayyun Island, was approached by two skiffs with seven persons on board. The skiffs approached the MV at speed to within 100m before withdrawing. Vessel and crew were unharmed.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Nov 17: Supply Ship Boarded at Batu Ampar. Three armed men boarded a supply ship in Batu Ampar anchorage at 1909UTC. They threatened a crew member before fleeing. A search of the vessel established that they had escaped with ship’s stores. 03 Nov 17: Bulk Carrier Boarded in Muara Berau Anchorage, Indonesia. Two armed robbers boarded the vessel in approximate position 0°15’73S, 117°35’50E at 2050UTC. Duty AB was threatened, and attackers escaped with stolen ships properties when the alarm was raised.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 45 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 45 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44

Headlines From The Week

Manhattan Terror Attack – Eight people were killed after an Uzbek immigrant drove a truck down a cycle path in Manhattan, New York City. He then hit a school bus before exiting the vehicle holding a pellet gun and a paintball gun; he was subsequently shot, injured, and arrested by police. The incident has been treated as a terror attack, with the attacker reportedly inspired by Islamic State. Almost a dozen others were injured.
Eritrea Clashes – Security forces clashed with student protestors in the Eritrean capital of Asmara. 28 people were allegedly killed and more than 100 injured on 07 November. These figures cannot be verified as they came from an anti-government activist group, though the US embassy did confirm reports of gunfire. Eritrea remains a hermit state, which many have called ‘the North Korea of Africa’.
Ethiopia – At least 19 people died in two separate incidents across Ethiopia in a series of incidents that demonstrate rising ethnic tensions in the nation. A sugar protest in Oromia state lead to 11 fatalities and 245 arrests, with Oromia-Amhara tensions being a contributing factor. In western Gumuz state, a further eight were killed and 11 arrested after ethnic Amhara and Gumuz groups engaged in violence following a personal feud.
North Korea warnings – The South Korean intelligence agency reported that the North was likely to recommence the refinement of nuclear materials before the end of 2017, and that facilities were prepared for another nuclear test with little to no warning. There is a realistic possibility that North Korea will carry out a further nuclear test during President Trump’s tour of Asia, or in the build up to the South Korean Winter Olympics in early 2018. Seismologists have detected a notable increase in instability in the North Korean nuclear test area following their most recent test, which could be notably worsened by further testing.
India power plant – At least 29 people were killed following an explosion at the National Thermal Power Corporation’s site in Uttar Pradesh. Preliminary investigations indicate that the blast was the result of lax safety and operations procedures, not of intentional sabotage.
France State of Emergency – Two years after its initial implementation, France has rescinded its State of Emergency due to the threat of terrorism. A series of new legislation has enacted some powers from the State of Emergency into routine legal and law enforcement practice, in order to better deal with the ongoing threat.
Kenya Elections – The incumbent President, Uhuru Kenyatta, was formally declared the winner of the 26 October poll, with approximately 98 per cent of the vote after the principal opposition group opted to boycott the election. Opposition leaders have called for ongoing civil disobedience.

What To Look Out For Next Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump is scheduled to complete a six-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour is highly likely to attract an enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. Disruption to travel, therefore, is highly likely. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila will host the President throughout this period.
International Cube Day – “Anonymous for the Voiceless’, an animal, environment, and health rights groups have organised ‘International Cube Day’ in 186 cities around the world to demonstrate for their causes. It is unclear how much disruption their demonstrations will cause; their Facebook event pages do not suggest that more than a dozen attendees will be at each of the ‘cubes’, however the number of events to be held is significant.
Tropical Storm Damrey – Flooding is expected across Vietnam and Thailand as Tropical Storm Damrey crosses from west to east across the region. Areas struck by the storm are likely to receive between 150mm and 300mm of rain. This level of rainfall is highly likely to lead to landslides and protracted disruption.

Significant Dates & Event

04 November – Far right group Forza Nuova group plans to protest in Rome.
04 November – Government-authorised ultra-nationalist march planned in southern Moscow.
05 November – Pakistan People’s Party rally in Punjab’s Layyah.
05 November – Million Mask March in London’s Trafalgar Square.
06 November – Asia Pacific Economic Conference in Da Nang, Vietnam.
06 November – Sicily’s Vincenzo Florio Airport to close for five days.
07 November – Nationwide Italian taxi-drivers protest due to new licensing rules.
07 November – Liberian presidential election run-off.
09 November – Falkland Island elections. Protests possible in Buenos Aires.
09 November – Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Brazil.
10 November – Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Manila.

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 44 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43

Headlines From This Week

Kenya Presidential Elections – The re-run of the August 2017 elections was held on 26 October. The vote was marred by widespread violence, a boycott by the opposition NASA and its leader Raila Odinga, and a turnout of around 35 per cent. President Kenyatta looks set to win this latest poll, but it is unclear if a further vote will be forced to take place. Violence, however, is expected to continue in NASA strongholds especially.
Piracy near Bonny Island – On 24 October, six crew members were kidnapped from a Liberia-flagged, Germanowned container vessel in the Gulf of Guinea. Eight attackers approached the vessel in a black speedboat prior to boarding the ship and seizing crew. The remaining 12 crew members navigated the ship to safer waters after the pirates departed.
Niger Police Attacked on Mali Border – Gunmen attacked and killed 13 Niger police officers near the Mali border. The attack occurred close to where four US soldiers were killed in early October 2017. The militants were reportedly heavily armed on pickup trucks and motorcycles, crossing from Mali into Niger to conduct their attack. There are several Islamic militant groups active in the area. This incident demonstrates the instability in this region.
Temer Avoids Corruption Trial – Brazil’s embattled president has avoided a corruption trial after securing enough votes in the lower house of Congress. He has been accused of obstructing justice and racketeering. Temer faced a similar vote in August of this year. It is possible that this will lead to unrest on the streets of Brazil with Temer currently enduring the lowest recorded approval ratings in Brazilian history.
The Battle for Catalonia – The political battle between Madrid and the Catalan region escalated this week. The regional government in Catalonia voted to declare independence 70-10 in a vote boycotted by the opposition. This move is unlikely to be ratified by the Spanish Constitutional Court or be recognised by any international government. In Madrid, the Senate voted 214 votes to 47 to approve measures allowing Spain to impose direct rule over the autonomous region. Further protests are likely and may turn violent.
Turkey-Iraq Border – The Turkish and Iraqi governments have finalised an agreement to open a second border crossing in order to bypass the Kurdish Regional Government, which presently controls the official route between the two countries. This highlights that both parties consider the issue of Kurdish independence and control of the border as a notable and ongoing threat to their national relations. The move will also deprive the Kurdish region of the leverage and income opportunities provided by control of the trade route.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Morocco Protests – The Hirak committee has called for demonstrations across Morocco on 28 October 2017. This latest wave of protest began after a fishmonger was killed by a rubbish truck last year. Unrest is most prevalent in the turbulent Al-Hoceima and Rif regions, in the north of the country. Violence has been reported in previous protests, with clashes between protestors and security personnel a strong possibility.
Tropical Storm Selma – Another tropical storm looks set to hit the Americas. Selma has formed off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica and is expected to move inland over El Salvador and Guatemala over the weekend. While the storm is unlikely to strengthen further, it is expected to bring flash flooding, mudslides, and gale-force winds. The impact of Selma is already being felt in the region.
Pro-Palestine Protests – A series of pro-Palestine protests are due to take place next week. This includes one outside of the Israeli Embassy in Pretoria in South Africa, in Ireland outside of the British Embassy (both on 02 November), and in London, United Kingdom on 04 November.

Significant Dates & Events

28 October – Opposition rally planned in Baku, Azerbaijan
28 October – Czech Republic marks its independence from Austria-Hungary
28 October – South Korean trade unions plan to rally
28 October – Taipei, Taiwan hosts a LGBT pride parade
29 October – Turkey celebrates its Republic Day
01 November – Algeria celebrates its Revolution Day
01 November – Christian holiday of All Saints Day
01 November – Antigua and Barbuda Independence Day
03 November – Dominica Independence Day
03 November – Panama celebrates Separation Day
03 November – Military drills planned in Sharjah, UAE

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 43 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 43 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

20 Oct 17: Vessel Attack 49nm Southeast of Brass, Nigeria. The vessel was attacked in approximate position 3°55’0N, 6°39’0E at 1834UTC. One black boat travelling around 25knots approached the vessel and fired shots. Embarked Navy team returned fire. The boat followed for 25 mins before moving away. 21 Oct 17: Vessel Attack 36nm Southwest of Bonny Island. The MV was attacked in approximate position 3°47’0N, 7°9’0 E at 0600UTC. Eight armed pirates boarded the vessel. Six crew members were kidnapped, including the Master and Chief Officer. 23 Oct 17: Supply Vessel Attacked off Bonny, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 4°0’0N, 6°49’2E at 0955UTC. Fifteen pirates on two speed boats approached and opened fire. The pirates were reported to be armed with AK-47 rifles and a general purpose machine guns (GPMG). Armed security personnel onboard the Nigerian Navy escort vessel returned fire. Some pirates suffered injuries. The supply vessel and crew are safe. 25 Oct 17: Tanker Attacked Southwest of Bonny Island. The MV was attacked in approximate position 3°35’5N, 6°49’2E at 2005UTC, 52nm southwest. Two armed pirates boarded the vessel but the crew mustered in the citadel. The crew were reported safe

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

24 Oct 17: Iranian Dhow Attacked 41nm Southeast of Socotra. Pirates are suspected of attacking the vessel in approximate position 11°50’0N, 54°35’0E at 0748UTC. Iranian coast guard requested assistance from the US Navy; three crew from the dhow were injured and treated by the US warship when it later arrived to the scene.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

23 Oct 17: ASEAN Defense Ministers Agree to Increase Counter-Terrorism Measures. In light of the announcement that Marawi has been liberated from Islamic extremist fighters, ministers reiterated their commitment to strengthening joint air and maritime patrols already in place to counter the threat of terrorism in their common maritime borders. 25 Oct 17: Tanker Boarded in Cilacap Anchorage, Indonesia. Four armed robbers boarded the vessel in approximate position 7°44’1S, 109°4’0E at 2020UTC. Duty crew noticed the robbers on the main deck. The alarm was raised and all crew mustered. The robbers escaped with stolen ships properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 43 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 43 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

November 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – November 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The November 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 42 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

16 Oct 17: Nigeria and Ghana Sign MoU to Combat Sea Pirates. The four year Memorandum of Understanding will facilitate knowledge sharing and capacitybuilding between the two nations. The MoU is anticipated to last for four years.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

14 Oct 17: Al Shabaab Conduct Large Terror Attack in Mogadishu. Three hundred people have been reported killed, and many more injured in the bomb attack, with many more injured. The attack occurred at Zoobe junction. 16 Oct 17: Military Plans in Place for Al Hodeida Port. Backed by the Saudicoalition, military plans are in place to oust Houthi fighters from Al Hodeida. The port is seen as a key stronghold and source of revenue for Houthi forces. 17 Oct 17: Bulk Carrier Boarded in Kandla Anchorage, India. The anchored vessel was boarded in position 22°47’3N, 70°1’8E at 1630UTC. The duty officer spotted the robbers and raised the alarm. The robbers escaped with stolen ships properties.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

16 Oct 17: Five Fishermen Seized in Sulu. The fishermen from the FB Danvil 9 were abducted by armed men whilst in Port Poblacion. 17 Oct 17: Philippine President Declares Marawi Liberated. The announcement came even though small pockets of Islamic State militants remain. There were concerns the island of Mindanao would become a haven for IS fighters, impacting regional maritime security. The city was occupied for 148 days, in which 1000 people were killed, mostly fighters, and severe damage to the city centre caused by airstrikes.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 42 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 42 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42

Headlines From The Week

Chinese Communist Party Congress – Over 2,000 senior delegates from China’s ruling Communist Party gathered for their five-yearly Party Congress. This has been marked by a significant increase in security measures in Beijing. All signs so far point to a solidification of power around President Xi, with no discernible signs of dissent which could represent potential for unrest.
Kirkuk Seized by Iraqi Army – Iraqi federal troops, supported by Iranian-backed Shia militias, retook Kirkuk from the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. Only one brief exchange of fire was reported during the initial phase of the operation, Kurdish forces otherwise withdrew peacefully. On 20 October 2017, further fighting was reported in the Alton Kupri area, north of the city. The cause of this incident remains unclear. Up to 100,000 ethnically Kurdish civilians fled the city as the Peshmerga withdrew, fearing ethnic violence from the Shia militias. This exodus is likely to cause disruption in other Kurdish cities, particularly Erbil. The Iraqi army has been ordered not advance further than the pre- 2003 border of the Kurdish Autonomous Region.
Somali Hotel Attack – A truck-borne suicide bomb struck a hotel near the foreign ministry in Mogadishu, killing over 300 people, and wounding a further 400. Officials indicate that the attack was carried out by the Islamist insurgent group, Al Shabaab, although the group has not claimed responsibility for the attack. It is likely that the attacker sought to strike the foreign ministry building, and may not have intended to inflict vast civilian casualties.
Extensive Wildfires in Portugal and Spain – Large wildfires have spread throughout northern Portugal and Spain. They are believed to have been intentionally set by arsonists and exacerbated by an abnormally dry summer. Present estimates place the death-toll for this set of fires at 44. Travel in the affected areas has been heavily disrupted and extensive evacuations were implemented where the fires threatened inhabited areas.
Mersin IED Attack – An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated against a bus carrying Turkish police officers in Mersin on 17 October, injuring 17 police officers and one civilian. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but officials have indicated that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) insurgent group are most likely to have carried out the attack.
Church Attack and Bank Robbery in Sinai – Islamist insurgents opened fire on security personnel near the Church of Saint George in El Arish, Egypt on 16 October. A second group then attacked a nearby bank, whilst security forces were distracted, and emptied the safe. Officials reported that seven people were killed and 15 wounded during the combined attack.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kenya Unrest – Kenya’s President Kenyatta has insisted that the presidential election will continue to go ahead on 26 October 2017, despite his main opponent pulling out of the race. Political rallies and protests have continued across the country, both to demonstrate support for the two main parties, and to protest against perceived irregularities in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. This unrest is highly likely to continue and escalate up to, and beyond, the election date with the main opposition party calling for protests. Protests in Kenya regularly turn violent.
Thai Royal Funeral – Bangkok is to host the five-day long state funeral for King Bhumibol from 25 to 29 October, following more than a year of official mourning. The event is being replicated across the country by 85 scaleddown versions of the ceremony, and is likely to attract high attendance from Thai citizens. Provision of services is highly likely to be disrupted throughout the country.
Tropical storm Lan – The Japanese mainland is likely to be struck by Tropical Storm Lan between 22 and 23 October. The storm is presently a category-two storm; however, it is likely to strengthen to at least category-three before striking Japan. Travellers should comply with the instructions of local authorities.

Significant Dates & Events

22 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Austin, Texas
22 October – Curfew in place from 0800 – 1700 due to census. All travellers must comply with the curfew
22 October – Argentine legislative elections
24 October – Women’s rights protest in Santiago, Chile
24 October – Zambia’s Independence Day
25 October – Royal funeral ceremonies begin, Bangkok, Thailand
27 October – Formula 1 Grand Prix in Mexico City
27 October – Turkmenistan’s Independence Day
28 October – Trade union protests in Seoul, South Korea

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 42 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 42 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41

Headlines From This Week

California Wildfires – 31 people have now been confirmed dead after wildfires swept through northern California. Hundreds remain missing and there are at least 22 active fires at present. More than 3,500 buildings and 68,000 hectares of land have been destroyed, with 8,000 firefighters tackling the various blazes. Officials have warned that conditions will worsen.
Tensions in Kurdistan – Friction between the government in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan continue to rise after the recent independence referendum. Kurdish Peshmerga military forces have claimed that the Iraqi army and its militia allies are preparing to attack Kirkuk, which falls outside of their semi-autonomous zone but is held by Kurdish forces at present. Tensions continue to rise in the region, with Syria, Turkey, and Iran, countries with significant Kurdish populations, watching on closely. Any war between the Kurds and Baghdad could have significant negative consequences for stability in the region.
Kenya Turmoil – It has been a tumultuous week in Kenya and Kenyan politics. Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition in Kenya (NASA), announced plans to pull out of this month’s re-run elections due to issues with the election commission. The impact on the election itself is unclear. Odinga’s supporters have taken to the streets in protest. So much so that the Kenya government has banned protests in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Protestors have ignored this instruction and further violent clashes between police and demonstrators have occurred and are expected to continue.
DRC Elections – The election commission of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced that there would be no elections in the country before 2019. The commission claims that more time is needed to adequately prepare. This delay raises concerns that there will be a surge in violence in the already unstable country; activists have already called for resistance in response to the delays.
US-Turkey Diplomatic Issues – Relations between Turkey and the United States, both key members of NATO, seem to be at an all-time low. The US reacted to the arrest of a member of its consular staff by freezing its nonimmigrant visa services in Turkey. The US fears that arrests of its citizens and personnel in Turkey are being made in order to force the US to extradite Fetullah Gulen. Gulen and his followers have been accused of orchestrating the coup attempt last year.
Vietnam Flooding – Flooding and landslides have killed at least 54 people in Vietnam since a tropical depression hit northern and central areas at the beginning of this week. Another 39 people are missing. Infrastructural damage has hampered rescue attempts and travel conditions have become hazardous.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Tropical Storm Khanun – Tropical Storm Khanun is expected to make landfall in southern China late on 15 October or early the next day, with Hainan and Guangdong provinces most at threat. The storm is expected to intensify over the South China Sea before hitting Vietnam, potentially causing further damage to areas already dealing with widespread flooding.
Diwali – The festival of Diwali, the ‘festival of lights’, occurs on 19 October, with celebrations lasting for five days. Diwali is observed by Hindus, Sikhs, Newar Buddhists, and Jains, most notably in the Indian subcontinent but also across the world. The festival is an official holiday in Fiji, Guyana, India, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Sindh province in Pakistan.
Elections in Kyrgyzstan – Kyrgyzstan is set for the most democratic election of all countries in the Central Asian region, where the president may only stand for one term. The president is elected using a two-round system, the first being on 15 October. There are tensions between Kyrgyz and Uzbek ethnic groups and it is possible that this election will lay such tensions bare. A state of emergency was issued in Osh during 2010 after clashes between the two groups.

Significant Dates & Events

14 October – World Ironman Championship, Hawaii
15 October – Anti-White Supremacy Rally in Toronto, Canada
15 October – Austrian legislative elections
15 October – Canton Fair begins in Guangzhou, China
15 October – Regional elections take place in Venezuela
16 October – Protests planned outside health ministry in Rabat, Morocco
19 October – CGT Union members in France set to take part in a 24-hour strike
20 October – Sikh Festival celebrating Installation of the Sri Guru Granth Sahib Ji
20-21 October – Czech legislative elections

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 41 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 41 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 41 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

8 Oct 17: Operation Crocodile Smile II – Nigerian Military Deploy Troops in Niger Delta. Militants have threatened attacks if the number of soldiers deployed in the region increases. 11 Oct 17: Supply Vessel Attacked and Boarded South of Brass, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 3°57’0N, 6°19’0E at 0820UTC. Seven to eight persons were sighted on the speed boat. The crew mustered to the citadel. Ships equipment and property were stolen. The robbers escaped when the security vessel closed on their position.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

6 Oct 17: Indian Navy Assist Bulk Carrier in Piracy Attack. The INS Trishul responded to the Jag Amar distress call at 1230UTC. The navy seized one AK47 assault rifle, along with grapnels, ropes, fuel drums and ladders. Twelve pirates made the pirate attempt on the vessel. 7 Oct 17: Suspicious Skiffs Reported in Gulf of Aden. Four dark coloured-hulled skiffs were sighted in position 11°56’11N, 44°43’46E at 0720UTC, near Point A IRTC. Four to five persons were reported on board. The skiffs approached up to 0.7nm and then turned away. 8 Oct 17: Somali Forces Kill Iranian Sailor. Puntland Maritime Police Forces spotted two boats reportedly illegally fishing in Somali waters. The incident reportedly occurred off the Ras Hafun coast. Another sailor was injured in the incident.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

10 Oct 17: US Warship Sails Near Islands Claimed by South China Sea. A US Navy destroyer sailed near islands prompting an angry response from Beijing. China’s Defense Ministry stated a warship, two fighter jets and a helicopter were scrambled to warn the USS Chafee away. 12 Oct 17: Unmanned Rig Being Towed Boarded in Singapore Straits. Five persons in two crafts approached and boarded the rig in position 1°11’1N, 103°33’6E at 0020UTC. The tug master raised the alarm and notified local authorities who responded; however, the persons escaped.

Click link to Download PDF:Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 41 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 41 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40

Headlines From This Week

Catalan Independence – The final tally from the vote on 01 October vote on Catalan independence has not been released. Organisers claim that 90 per cent voted for independence with a turnout of 42 per cent. Clashes have been reported across Catalonia between protestors and police. The Spanish Constitutional Court has suspended the Catalan parliamentary session planned for 09 October, in which Catalan leaders were expected to vote on independence.
Las vegas Attack – Just after 2200 hours on 02 October, a gunman fired down at a country music festival from the Mandalay Bay Hotel, Las Vegas. At least 59 people were killed and more than 500 injured; the deadliest mass shooting event in the nation’s history. The motive of the attacker, who reportedly ended his own life, is unclear.
Marseille Attack – Two women were stabbed and killed at a train station in Marseille, France on 01 October. The attacker, who is currently being investigated for links to Islamic State, was shot dead at the scene. Under France’s state of emergency, soldiers are deployed at key sights throughout the country including transport hubs.
Unrest in Anglophone Cameroon – This week has seen further deadly clashes between protestors and security forces in English-speaking areas of Cameroon. Amnesty International has accused Cameroonian security forces of killing 17 secessionist protestors. Many of the deaths occurred on 1 October as police opened fire on a crowd calling for independence. The internet has been blocked in the region due to unrest.
The Plague in Madagascar – The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified more than 114 cases of the plague in Madagascar since the outbreak was first identified in early August 2017. At least 20 fatalities have been reported and this is expected to rise. Plague is endemic to Madagascar, with 400 cases reported, on average, each year. The outbreak has led to public gatherings being banned in Antananarivo, the capital city.
Suicide Attack in Balochistan – At least 20 people were killed after a suicide attack at a shrine in Jhal Magsi in Balochistan on 05 October. A further 30 have been reported injured in this unstable region of Pakistan. The attacker detonated his suicide vest after a security guard had prevented him from entering the shrine.
Tropical Storm Nate – At least 22 people have been killed in the Central American countries of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras after Tropical Storm Nate made landfall. Nate has caused heavy rains, landslides, and floods; states of emergency have been implemented. Hundreds of thousands have been left without power or running water. The storm is expected to head north towards the US Gulf Coast and may strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall, approximately in the evening of 7 October, in the US.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kenya Opposition Plan Weekly Protests – Starting from 06 October, opposition coalition, the National Super Alliance (NASA), has organised weekly protests against the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Violence has been reported and further violent unrest is expected in the coming weeks in the lead up to the rearranged presidential elections on 26 October. Violence is likely to be most prominent outside of IEBC offices, in Nairobi slums, and Kisumu; the latter two contain a large number of NASA supporters.
Protests in Russia – At least 80 cities in Russia are due to host protests to mark the birthday of President Putin. The protests, organised by opposition leader Alexei Navalny, are due to demand an end to Putin’s rule and genuine democracy in Russia. Clashes between protestors and police are likely; Navalny and a number of his supporters have been attacked in recent months.
Liberia Elections – On 10 October, Liberians will go to the polls in presidential and legislative elections. Security is expected to be tight. The last day to enter the country by air is 08 October. The campaign has remained relatively nonviolent as the country prepares for its transfer of power from on elected president to another since 1944.

Significant Dates & Events

07 October – 16th anniversary of the US-led war in Afghanistan
08 October – 2017 Hong Kong Cyclothon
08 October – Anti-secessionist rally to be held in Barcelona
09-11 October – French labour unions call for another strike • 09 October – Uganda Independence Day
09 October – Lawmakers from Federally Administered Tribal Areas to protest in Islamabad
10 October – Fiji Independence Day
10 October – Commemoration of the founding of the Republic of China in Taiwan
12 October – Fiesta Nacional de España, Spain’s national day
12 October – Equatorial Guinea National Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 40 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 40 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

2 Oct 17: MDAT-GoG Release Quarterly Report. From July to September, there have been 18 events reported by MDAT-GoG. Of which, there was one reported hijack, four vessel attacks, and one vessel boarded. In addition, two suspicious approaches and another two sightings were reported. 2 Oct 17: Vessel Attack Near Bonny Island, Nigeria. An MV reported being attacked in position 4°17’36N, 7°4’0E at 1815UTC. The embarked armed security team fired shots at the speedboat. The speedboat escaped. 2 Oct 17: Nigerian Army to Conduct Training Exercises in Niger Delta. Exercises will be carried out in the restive region from 7-28 October, within the states of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta and Rivers State. Last years deployment led to local unrest with locals who accused the military of intimidation tactics in order to capture militants. 4 Oct 17: Niger Delta Militants Condemn Army Exercises. Militants claim the exercises are unnecessary and the government should focus on economic development.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

4 Oct 17: Islamic State Claim Responsibility for Attack in Bosaso, Somalia. This is the third attack claimed by IS in Bosaso this year. In February, two gunmen attacked the International Village hotel, in which four soldiers and the two attackers were killed. In May, a suicide bomber detonated at a police checkpoint near the Juba hotel, killing five people and injuring 17 others. 6 Oct 17: Suspicious Skiffs Reported in Gulf of Aden. Two white-hulled skiffs were sighted in position 13°13N, 50°30E at 0700UTC. Ladders were sighted. The MV was approached up to 1.2nm after which the skiffs moved away.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

1 Oct 17: Security Tightened on Balut Island. Eastern Mindanao Command strengthened and improved their security border in Balut Island, Sarangani, Davao. The effort has been made to prevent terror groups from entering its jurisdiction and improve regional maritime security. 3 Oct 17: Robbers Board an Anchored Container Ship in Manila Anchorage, Philippines. Six to eight robbers boarded the vessel in position 14°33’40N, 120°54’60E at 1650UTC. Duty crew noticed the robbers and raised the alarm. The duty crew raised the alarm and the robbers escaped with stolen ships properties. 5 Oct 17: Twelve Killed After Tanker Collided with a Fishing Boat. The collision occurred 215nm north of the Oki islands in western Japan. Nearby fishing vessels rescued four Chinese crewmen.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 40 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 40 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

October 2017 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – October 2017 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The October 2017 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 39 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

18 Sep 17: Pirate Attack on Tug and Barge in Rivers State. The vessels had embarked security with a combined team of policemen and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corp. The tug and barge were attacked by five gunmen in position 4°26’0N, 6°40’0E at 1845UTC, on San Barolomeo River, Ekebiri. Three persons were shot and one policeman was reported missing. Local news and police have stated three people were killed. 26 Sep 17: Tanker Attacked and be separated by a 0.5nm buffer zone. Boarded by Pirates in Brass, Nigeria. The Panama-flagged vessel was boarded by armed pirates in position 03°48’73N, 6°35’96E. Three crew members were reportedly abducted from the vessel.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

28 Sep 17: Vessel Boarded in Dar Es Salaam Anchorage, Tanzania. Five armed robbers boarded the vessel in position 6°46’66S, 39°21’40E at 2300UTC. The crew were tied up. The robbers stole a VHF radio, and cargo items before escaping. 26 Sep 17: Five Skiffs Sighted in Gulf of Aden. The skiff was sighted in approximate position 12°8’0N, 44°15’0E; between the Bab El Mandeb and Point A of the IRTC. Each skiff was reported to carry persons on board. One skiff approached the vessel within one cable. Embarked armed security team showed weapons and the skiff changed direction. 28 Sep 17: Tanker Attacked Off the Coast of Nishtun, Yemen. The tanker was attacked by 1 small boat carrying 5-6 armed persons in position 15°53’0N, 52°20’0E at 1236UTC. Shots were reported to be fired. The vessel proceeded to its next port.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

22 Sep 17: The Philippines Launches a Recommended Transit Corridor (RTC). All vessels transiting Moro Gulf and Basilan Strait should follow the RTC. It is not a traffic separation scheme. The Philippines Coast Guard and other maritime forces will be better able to monitor vessels using this corridor, as well as deploy quicker. The corridor includes an inbound and outbound transit lane that is 1nm wide, and will be separated by a 0.5nm buffer zone

Click link to Download PDF:Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 39 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 39 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38

Headlines From This Week

UN General Assembly – The annual General Debate of the UN General Assembly began on 19 September and will finish on 25 September. President Trump was the most high-profile speaker at the UN where he continued much of the rhetoric which has become a hallmark of his presidency to date. His two primary targets were Iran and North Korea. He threatened to use US military might to ‘totally destroy’ North Korea unless Pyeongyang fell in line; something that shocked many world leaders in the room. He also called the Iran nuclear deal into question. This drew only reluctant support from European allies.
Mexico Earthquake – A powerful 7.1 magnitude earthquake struck Puebla, about 150km south of Mexico City on 19 September. At present, more than 270 fatalities have been confirmed as dozens of buildings collapsed or suffered significant damage in Mexico’s capital. Many more are still believed to be trapped and the death toll is expected to rise. This is the deadliest quake to hit Mexico since 1985, when about 10,000 fatalities were reported. This was the second powerful quake in less than two weeks.
Catalan Independence – The debate over the planned independence referendum for the Catalan region of Spain reached boiling point this week after at least 12 Catalan officials were arrested by Spanish police. This was part of a crackdown on planning for the independence referendum which, at present, will still be held on 1 October 2017. The government of Spain opposes Catalonian independence (and the vote), with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy insisting the referendum will not go ahead. Polls indicate about 49 per cent of Catalans are against independence, with 41 per cent in favour.
Hurricane Maria – Maria is the second major hurricane in the Caribbean this month (after Irma), and one of the strongest to hit Puerto Rico in the last 90 years. An estimated 15 people were killed on the island, in addition to streets flooded, power knocked out, and homes destroyed. 14 deaths were also reported on the island of Dominica. A number of other islands have also been impacted and death tolls are likely to increase as search and rescue operations continue.
Kenya Unrest – Protests were reported outside Kenya’s Supreme Court in Nairobi this week, after President Kenyatta criticised the court for committing a “coup” on the election. The re-run has been delayed and will now be held on 26 October 2017, although there continue to be doubts whether the voting process will be reformed in time. Political tensions remain high in Kenya, raising concerns of a return to violent clashes in the country.
Eastern Congo Flooding – Floods in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have killed 10 people, with another 92 still missing. Emergency services have been dispatched to the town of Bihambwe to search for the missing.

What To Look Out For Next Week

German Elections – Federal elections will be held on 24 September to determine if Chancellor Angela Merkel, will remain for another four years. Although initial projections will be available on Sunday, a definitive result may only be reached by Tuesday. Polls suggest Merkel, with the Christian Democratic Union, will remain in power with approximately 36 per cent of the vote. Their closest rival, the Social Democratic Party is expected to receive 22 per cent of the vote. Berlin will also host its annual marathon on 24 September, making travel very challenging.
UC Berkley ‘Free Speech Week’ – Far-right, controversial activists are due to speak at UC Berkeley’s ‘Free Speech Week’ between 24-27 September. In the past, fearing violence, speeches by far-right figures have been cancelled. Recent events have demonstrated political and racial friction in the US (including at Charlottesville). It is likely that this event will bring protestors and the potential for clashes between rival groups.
Kurdish Independence Referendum – There are significant concerns regarding the impact of the referendum planned to be held on 25 September 2017. The result of the vote is likely to be yes, but will not lead to an immediate secession of Kurdistan from Iraq. The UN Security Council has warned of the destabilising impact the referendum may have on the region; the referendum may divide Iraq and spark a wider regional conflict. The Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has stated the referendum is unconstitutional.

Significant Dates & Events

23 September – Saudi Arabia National Day
24 September – German election and Berlin Marathon
24 September – Guinea-Bissau National Day
24 September – Pro-independence rallies to be held in Catalonia
25 September – Anti-corruption protests due to take place in Slovakia
25 September – Further anti-labour law strikes in France
28 September – Iceland Elections
29 September – Formula One weekend begins in Malaysia

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 38 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

15 Sep 17: Container Ship Boarded by Armed Robbers Near Conakry, Guinea. Seven robbers armed with guns, knives, and crowbars, boarded the Denmark flagged vessel in approximate position 9°24’35N, 13°44’56W at 0206UTC. Three crew members were assaulted, some vessel damage caused and ships properties stolen. The robbers escaped the vessel. 18 Sep 17: Tug and Barge Attacked in Rivers State, Nigeria. The vessels were on route from Idamara to Robertkiri when it was attacked by five gunmen in approximate position 4°26’0N, 6°40’0E on the San Bartolomeo, Rivers State. One person was shot and another three abducted, including the captain and chief engineer. 18 Sep 17: Attack on Vessel and Kidnap of Crew Near Parrot Island, Calabar, Nigeria. Four speedboats are reported to have attacked the vessel, with five crew members abducted. The incident occurred in approximate position 4°47’0N, 8°18’0E at 2107UTC.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

14 Sep 17: Yemen Houthi Leader Claims Group Could Target Saudi Oil Tankers. The warning came in response to the threat posed by Saudi forces of attacking the port city of Al Hodeidah, currently held by Houthi fighters. 22 Sep 17: Suspicious Vessel Sighted in Gulf of Aden. The skiff was sighted in approximate position 12°37N, 47°28E at 0721UTC, carrying three armed persons on board.

Lybia – Maritime Security Incidents

18 Sep 17: EU Trains 87 Libyan Coastguards. EUNAVFOR’s Operation Sofia aims to increase security in Libyan territorial waters. The training will last till November. Operation Sofia is tasked with disrupting illegal trafficking networks in the Mediterranean, and has been extended to 31 December 2018.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

19 Sep 17: Robbers Board Anchored Bulk Carrier in Vietnam. Robbers boarded the vessel at Cam Pha Inner Anchorage in approximate position 20°54’3N, 107°16’3E during vessel operations. Duty crew noticed the broken padlock to the paint store and raised the alarm. Some items were reported stolen. 15 Sep 17: Two Collisions in a Month Highlight Congestion Concerns in Singapore Straits. Twelve sailors have died, with another three missing in two separate collisions. A new port at Tuas is anticipated to handle more ships but will only open in 2021.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 38 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 38 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.