Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51

Headlines From This Week

Ramming Incident in Melbourne – 19 people were injured after a car driver deliberately drove into pedestrians on a busy street in Melbourne, Australia on 21 December. Police have said the driver, who has been arrested, had a history of mental illness and drug abuse but no known extremist links.
Houthi Rocket Shot Down over Riyadh – Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a rocket at the Saudi Arabian king’s residence in the capital Riyadh on 19 December. The rocket was intercepted by the Saudi air force south of the capital. This marks the third such rocket attack by the Houthis on Riyadh in the last month and increases tensions in the region; Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of supplying the Houthis with sophisticated weaponry.
Regional Elections in Catalonia – A snap election for the regional parliament in Catalonia was held on 21 December. Despite pro-independence parties gaining a slim, and reduced, majority in the assembly, a prounion party gained the largest share of the vote. It is unclear who will be tasked with forming a government.
UN Vote on US’ Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed a resolution which called on the USA to withdraw its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. 128 states, include the four permanent members of the UN Security Council besides the US, voted to approve the non-binding resolution, with 35 abstaining, and nine (including the US, Israel, and a host of smaller countries) voting against. The US Ambassador to the UN, warned that “the United States will remember this day.”
Clashes Continue in Anglophone Cameroon – This week saw continued clashes in the English-speaking region of Cameroon. Armed separatists killed four soldiers after attacking a military installation in Kembong and reports emerged of villages being set ablaze. 30,000 refugees have fled to Nigeria from the region.
Two Tropical Storms Strike Southeast Asia – Over the last week, Tropical Storms Kai-Tak and Tembin have made landfall on the Philippines and impacted other countries in the region. Dozens have been left dead by landslides and flooding. Kai-Tak’s path went across the Visayas whereas Tembin’s route crossed Mindanao in Philippines south. A state of emergency was declared in the wake of Tropical Storm Kai-Tak.
Peru President Survives Impeachment Vote – Congress in Peru has voted not to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski over alleged corruption. The opposition wanted to impeach him for allegedly receiving illegal payments from Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht; other political leaders in the region have been brought down by the ongoing scandal.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Liberia Presidential Election – After a delay of more than a month due to a legal challenge, the runoff vote for the presidency of Liberia is due to occur on 26 December. The contest pits George Weah, a retired football player and junior senator, against Joseph Boakai, the incumbent vice president. Weah garnered more votes in the first round, having a 10 per cent advantage over Boakai.
Further Anti-Corruption Protests in Israel – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains under pressure to resign over corruption allegations. Protestors are due to continue their demonstrations with a rally outside Tel Aviv’s Independence Hall on 23 December at 2000 hours local time, and further gatherings in Paris and Zion Squares of Jerusalem from 1700 and 1800 hours respectively.
Anti-Corruption Protests in Romania – Anti-corruption activists are to rally in various cities of Romania on 23 December. Rallies are due to occur between 1400 and 1600 hours local time, with the largest protest due to begin in Bucharest’s Victory Square. Protestors are opposing judicial reforms proposed in Romania.

Significant Dates & Events

23 December – Sindh sugar cane workers to protest
23 December – Anti-US protests outside US Embassy in Prague. Czech Republic
23-24 December – UK CrossCountry Rail staff to strike
25 December – Christmas Day
26 December – Boxing Day
26 December – Macedonian railway workers to strike
27 December – Greater Anglia staff to strike in the UK

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 51 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 51 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 50 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

17 Dec 17: Ship Boarded at South of Lagos. A vessel was boarded by two men whilst conducting a shipto-ship transfer 3nm south of Lagos. The men escaped in a wooden boat when the alarm was raised. No thefts or injuries were reported. 14 Dec 17: 10 Crew Members Kidnapped from Underway Vessel. Six pirates attacked and boarded an underway bulk carrier around 32nm south of Brass, Nigeria. Ten crew members were reported missing. Remaining crew guided the vessel to a safe port. 14 Dec 17: Cargo Vessel Reported Attempted Boarding. A cargo vessel around 19nm south of Brass, Nigeria reported that four to five pirates approached in a small wooden boat an attempted to board the vessel. The master of vessel was able to take measures to evade the pirates.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

12 Dec 17 – Saudi-Led Forces Began New Hodeidah Assault – The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen’s civil war announced a new offensive against Yemen’s main port of Hodeidah. This followed the defection of those loyal to the deceased former president Ali Abdullah Saleh to the Saudi-led alliance. 14 Dec 17: Suspicious Approach reported in Gulf of Aden. A suspicious approach was reported by a vessel transiting the Gulf of Aden, approximately 60nm South East of Mukallah. Three skiffs, carrying three to four persons each, approached the vessel. The vessel was reported safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

07 Dec 17: Armed Thieves Boarded Vessel at Galang Anchorage. Four thieves armed with knives boarded a vessel at Galang Anchorage, Indonesia. The alarm was raised and the thieves escaped. No items were reported stolen. 07 Dec 17: Armed Thieves Stole from Vessel at Galang Anchorage. Thieves boarded a vessel at anchorage in Galang. They escaped once the vessel’s alarm was raised. Ships stores were reported stolen. 08 Dec 17: Container Ship Boarded in Manila. An anchored container vessel was boarded at Manila South Harbour. Robbers escaped with ship’s property. 13 Dec 17: Thieves Stole from Tanker in Singapore Straits. Four robbers armed with knives boarded a tanker underway in the Singapore Straits. They assaulted the duty oiler before escaping with stolen engine parts.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 50 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 50 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 50

Headlines From This Week

Failed Terror Attack in New York – Five people were injured after an individual detonated a pipe bomb below the Port Authority Bus Terminal in New York City on 11 December. The attacker, a Bangladeshi immigrant who had reportedly entered the US on an immigrant visa, pledged allegiance to Islamic State and claimed the attack in response to Israeli actions in Gaza. The two explosive devices on his person did not explode as had been intended.
Terror Attack in Mogadishu – At least 18 police officers were killed and 15 injured after an Al Shabab suicide bomber blew himself up inside Somalia’s main police academy in Mogadishu, on 14 December. The attacker reportedly disguised himself as a police officer to gain entry to the academy. This attack comes just two months after an Al Shabab bombing killed more than 500 people and levelled buildings in the Somali capital.
Deadly Airstrike on Houthi Prison – At least 30 prisoners were killed after Saudi coalition airstrikes on the city of Sanaa, which is controlled by the rebel Houthi forces. Local media reported that dozens were injured in seven raids targeting facilities controlled by the Houthis. The prison attacked by Saudi-led airstrikes housed 180 prisoners at that time.
Martial Law Extended in Mindanao – On 13 December, the Philippines Senate and House of Representatives voted in favour of approving a request by President Duterte to extend martial law in Mindanao until the end of December 2018. Martial law was initially implemented in May 2017 as a measure to control the rise of Islamic militants in the area. The move has been criticised by rights groups, including Amnesty International, who claim that human rights abuses have flourished in the area under the shadow of martial law.
Russia Announces Withdrawal from Syria – President Putin announced a “significant” withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria. Despite initial suggestions by the US that Moscow would find itself “stuck in a quagmire”, it seems to have been successful in its intervention in the Syrian Civil War, namely through the maintenance of ally Bashar al-Assad as President. Russia will keep two military bases in north-western Syria.
Peruvian President Resists Pressure to Resign – Peru’s president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is under serious pressure to resign due to the ongoing corruption allegations involving Brazilian construction firm, Odebrecht. Kuczynski was allegedly paid US$5 million in advisory fees while in a previous government role. The Odebrecht corruption scandal has impacted many political leaders across Central and South America. Indeed, the company was fined a record US$3.5 billion by the US in 2016 for bribing officials; ‘advisory fees’ was one such method used by Odebrecht to bribe public officials.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ANC National Conference – South Africa’s ruling African National Conference (ANC) are set to elect a new leader at their national conference in Johannesburg between 16 and 20 December. While Jacob Zuma will remain as president, the new ANC leader will spearhead the election campaign in 2019. Corruption allegations have blighted Zuma’s leadership; the new leader will face the challenge of uniting a party with deep divisions. The two favourite candidates are Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Christmas Transport Strikes in Europe – Transport workers across Europe are due to participate in various strikes next week. This includes security staff at Madrid Barajas Airport (from 22 December), Iberia Staff at Barcelona’s El Prat Airport (from 21st December), and baggage handlers at Paris’s Orly Airport (from 22 December). Travellers should contact their operators to understand if or how they may be impacted by these strikes.
‘Million March’ against US in Karachi – The Jamaat-e-Islami party have announced their intention to march on 17 December against the US’ recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The march is set to occur in Karachi and is likely to cause extensive travel delays. This is just one of a host of anti-US protests to have been organised in response to the United States’ new Israeli policy.

Significant Dates & Events

16 December – Bahrain National Day
16 December – Kazakhstan Independence Day
17 December – Bhutan National Day
17 December – Icelandic air Engineers threaten strike
17 December – Major infrastructure work begins on Singapore’s MRT
18 December – Niger Republic Day
18 December – Qatar National Day
20 December – Irish Ryanair pilots to srike
20 December – Macau Special Administrative Region Establishment Day

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 50 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 50 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 49 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

7 Dec 17: Armed Pirates Attempted to Board a Merchant Vessel near Bonny Island, Nigeria. The vessel was underway at position 03°31N, 07°70E, 53nm south of Bonny Island. A small vessel with eight armed persons came alongside the merchant vessel and attempted to board. Vessel and crew safe. 07 Dec 17: Suspicious Approach by Two Skiffs Reported by Merchant Vessel. A merchant vessel underway at 02°32N 00°01E, 112nm south of Bonny Island, was approached by two skiffs which came to within 300m of the vessel before steering away. 08 Dec 17: Cargo Vessel Boarded near Fairway Buoy, Nigeria. Twelve armed pirates boarded a cargo vessel at 04°11N 07°00E, 16nm from Fairway Buoy. All crew withdrew to the citadel after issuing a distress call. The Nigerian Navy boarded the vessel to find the pirates had escaped and all crew were safe. The vessel had previously been attacked, and the master kidnapped, on 01 December.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

07 Dec 17: Vessel Fired Upon South West of Hodeidah, Yemen. A vessel underway at 14°32N, 42°47E, 20nm southwest of Hodeidah, was approached by two skiffs carrying armed persons, who opened fire upon the vessel. Vessel evaded attack and escaped with all crew safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Dec 17: Anchored Container Ship Robbed in Manila, Philippines. Robbers gained access to the vessel via the anchor chain and stole lift rafts and immersion suits, before escaping undetected. 05 Dec 17: Barge Boarded by Robbers in Kutubdia, Bangladesh: A barge under tow was boarded at 21°52N, 91°45E, west of Kutubida Island. Robbers escaped with property, the barge and tug’s crew were unharmed. 07 Dec 17: Containership Boarded in Manila Anchorage, Philippines: A container vessel was boarded in Manila anchorage, 13°25N, 120°52E. The robbers were spotted by the crew near the forecastle, and fled as the crew mustered, escaping with ship’s properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 49 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 49 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49

Headlines From This Week

The United States Recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital – In a highly controversial move, President Trump, on 06 December, announced his intention to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, signifying that the US views Jerusalem as the country’s capital (the international community views Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem as illegal). This move is expected to damage the peace process and has led to protests in the Occupied Palestinian Territories and across the Muslim world. The policy shift has been criticised by regional and global allies of the United States.
Former President Saleh Killed – Yemen’s former President was killed by Houthi rebels on 04 December, just days after making peace overtures to the Saudi-led coalition, his opponents in the country’s civil war. Saleh and his followers had allied with the Houthis in the ongoing conflict. He had been described as Yemen’s only chance for peace. His death is likely to complicate the peace process.
ELN and FARC Clashes – 13 people were killed in clashes between the militant National Liberation Army (ELN) and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, officials confirmed on 05 December. The clashes occurred close to the Ecuadorean border as ELN guerrillas sought to disarm a local farmers’ resistance group. FARC have disbanded after years of fighting an insurgency and became a legitimate political party after accords with the government came into force this year. ELN are also seeking a peace deal with the government but these clashes would appear to break the three-month ceasefire the group have with the government.
Russia Banned from 2018 Olympics – The International Olympic Committee (IOC) have banned Russia from the 2018 Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea due to drug doping issues. Clean athletes will still be able to attend under a neutral flag. The presence of Russian (and Chinese) athletes at the Games decreases the likelihood of a North Korean military attack.
Fires in California – At least 200,000 people have been evacuated as wildfires spread across southern California. By 08 December, fires had been raging for five days, aided by dry and windy weather which is expected to last until 10 December. More than 57,000 hectares have been scorched across the state and 5,700 firefighters are trying to contain six large wildfires. Los Angeles county is affected by three fires while Riverside, Ventura, and San Diego counties are all subjected to one fire apiece.
Former President Kirchner Indicted – A judge in Argentina has indicted former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on treason charges over allegations that she covered up possible Iranian involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre. This move has already been met by pro-Kirchner protests in the capital.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-US Protests Planned Worldwide – Travellers are advised that the unrest in response to the US’ plan to move its Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem are unlikely to subside in the short run. Protests are expected to continue in the region and further afield. US Embassies are set to face unrest in Canada, Ireland, the UK, France, Belgium, Morocco, and elsewhere. Such protests should be avoided as violence is a possibility.
WTO Conference – The World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) Ministerial Conference is to take place in Buenos Aires, Argentina from 11-13 December. 5,000 WTO delegates are set to attend. Road closures and heightened security is anticipated near Puerto Madero, Centro Cultural Kirchner, and the University of Buenos Aires School of Law.
Jammu and Kashmir General Strike – ‘All Parties Hurriyat Conference’, a separatist group, has called on its supporters to engage in a Dawn to Dusk shutdown strike on 10 December. The move is in line with International Human Rights Day. A rally is due take place to the UN Military Observers’ headquarters in Srinagar. Violence is possible during this period.

Significant Dates & Events

09 December – Tanzania Independence Day
10 December – Transport strikes in Valencia, Spain
10 December – Municipal Elections in Venezuela
12 December – Jamhuri Day in Kenya
12 December – US Senate Special Election for Alabama
12 December – Potential for a 24-hour strike on RER Lines A and B in Paris
13 December – Pro-migrant rally to occur in Brussels
13 December – Saint Lucia National Day
15 December – Italian Aviation Workers to Strike

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 49 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 49 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 48 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

1 Dec 17: MV Attacked and Boarded 60nm South of Bonny, Nigeria. The vessel was in position 03°24N, 006°50E at 09:00UTC when the incident was reported. The crew mustered in the citadel. Vessels transiting the area are advised to exercise extreme caution. The pirates were reported to have disembarked and the crew were marked as safe.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

26 Nov 17: UN Aid Ship Arrives in Rebel-Held Port, Yemen. The Saudiled blockade lasted for nearly three weeks, limiting the amount of food and medical aid entering the country. 27 Nov 17: Iranian Navy Reportedly Repels Pirate Attack in Gulf of Aden. This is report is unconfirmed. Iran’s 48th naval fleet reportedly responded to an Iranian merchant ship Caspian Harmony when pirates attempted to hijack it.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

26 Nov 17: Anchored Product Tanker Boarded in Tanjung Berakit, Indonesia. Robbers were able to board the vessel unnoticed and break the padlocks. A search was conducted and nothing was reported stolen. 29 Nov 17: North Korea Conducts Third Missile Test. The missile was reported to have landed in Japanese territory. North Korea continues to develop their ballistic missiles, which may eventually be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 48 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 48 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48

Headlines From This Week

Mount Agung Erupted in Bali – The volcano at Mount Agung erupted in Bali, leading to the imposition of a 12km exclusion zone around the crater, and mass disruption to air travel due to the resulting ash cloud. Several thousand flights from Bali International Airport were cancelled, stranding travellers. A change in weather conditions has lead to a clearing of the ash cloud, and flights have since recommenced.
North Korea Launched a New ICBM – North Korea carried out a test-launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Based on its flight characteristics, Japanese and US officials suggest it has an effective range of approximately 13,000km, placing the vast majority of the USA within range. Observers are unable to judge, based on this launch, the weapon’s accuracy, payload, or ability to safely re-enter the atmosphere; all key attributes to a combat-ready rocket. This launch demonstrated the continued ineffectiveness of international sanctions on halting the North Korean nuclear weapons programme.
The Japanese Emperor Announced his Abdication – Emperor Akihito announced that he will abdicate his position on 30 April 2019, becoming the first Japanese monarch to abdicate in over 200 years. On the date of the proposed abdication, Akihito will be 85 years old. The title of Emperor will be passed to Crown Prince Naruhito, who will be 59 on the date of his succession. The role of Emperor is principally ceremonial, with all actions carried out by the Emperor requiring cabinet approval.
Honduran Election – Hondurans went to the polls for their general election on 26 November, electing their President, 128 members of Congress, and a variety of municipal positions. Protesters and police have clashed across the country as the opposition candidate lost a five point lead following a slow counting process and a computer glitch in the vote tallying system. A large number of ballot boxes reportedly arrived for counting with inconsistencies and potential evidence of tampering. Unrest is likely to persist up to, and following the announcement of the result.• Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.
Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Finnish Independence Day – 06 December marks the centenary of Finland’s independence from Russia. Celebrations officially begin mid-afternoon on 05 December, and travellers should expect disruption as festivals, parades, and public celebrations are held in most towns and cities. Considering heightened tensions with Russia in recent years, some disruptions at border stations are possible.
Nepalese Elections – The second round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Thursday 07 December, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local elections had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. Security and restrictions at border crossings with India are frequently heightened during election periods.
GCC Summit in Kuwait – Kuwait City is to host a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council on 05-06 December. Travellers should expect enhanced security measures to be in place for the duration of the summit.

Significant Dates & Events

02 December – Laos National Day, the anniversary of the Republic’s foundation
02 December – UAE National Day
03 December – First Sunday of Advent, a widely celebrated Christian religious event
03 December – Pakistan People’s Party scheduled protests in Rahin Yar Khan, Punjab
07 December – Alitalia staff set to conduct a 24 hour, nationwide strike across Italy
08 December – Feast of the Immaculate Conception, a widely celebrated Christian holiday

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 48 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47

Headlines From This Week

Houthi Rebels Threaten Maritime Traffic – Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened to attack international shipping, particularly oil vessels, and those flagged to states in the Saudi-led coalition. The objective of the threat appeared to be to apply pressure on the Saudi-led coalition to raise the blockade imposed upon all Yemeni ports. In this respect, it may be seen as successful, as Saudi Arabia announced that the blockade to Yemen would be eased to permit humanitarian access.
North Korea Declared State Sponsor of Terrorism – In response to North Korea’s continued provocation, US President, Donald Trump, placed the state on the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism. President George W. Bush removed North Korea from the list in 2008. The move was met with approval by a number of regional states, including Japan, however it is likely to have raised regional tensions and increased the likelihood of a further North Korean action in response.
German Coalition Talks Broke Down – German coalition talks, seeking to form a new government for Chancellor Angela Merkel, broke down during the week. Specific details are uncertain, however key policy issues between the Greens and the Free Democratic Party appear to have prevented the two parties uniting behind Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Social Democrats have signalled they are willing to consider renewing the previous “grand coalition” with the CDU, however they have not indicated any terms at this stage. It remains probable, however, that a new election will be announced before Christmas 2017, for polling in early 2018.
Chilean Election – Chilean voters went to the polls on Sunday 19 November to elect their legislature and conduct the first round of their presidential elections. Turn-out was reported to be approximately 47 per cent, higher than expected. Low turn-out is generally perceived to benefit conservative candidates. The right-wing candidate, Pinera, came in approximately five per cent below expectations, below the 40 per cent mark required to avoid a run-off. The two most notable opposition candidates polled 43 per cent between them, and there remains a possibility that their supporters will unite to support the opposition candidate on the 17 December run-off, potentially offering a surprise victory for left-leaning parties.
Mosque Attack in North Sinai – At least 200 people were killed as insurgents launched a coordinated firearm and bomb attack on a mosque in the town of Bir al-Abed, west of al-Arish. Four vehicles carrying armed men approached the mosque during Friday prayers and attacked the worshippers. The mosque was likely targeted due to its affiliation to the mystic Sufi branch of Islam, members of which are viewed as heretics by Salafist jihadi groups such as the Islamic State. Previous attacks in the region have focused on attacking security forces.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Bosnian Republic Day – 25 November marks the national celebration of Bosnia’s foundation and is likely to be marked by festivals and political events. Issues surrounding the nation’s founding remain contentious in some areas, and travellers in the country should expect disruption in urban areas, and possibly at the Serbian border.
Nepalese Elections – The first round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Sunday 26 November, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local election had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. The second round is scheduled for 07 December.
Prophets Birthday – The Islamic festival of Milad in Nabi will be observed across the Muslim world between Thursday 30 November and Friday 01 December. Major urban areas are likely to host substantial festivals, and provision of services is likely be substantially impacted. Those seeking to travel during or immediately after the festival should ensure their arrangements are in place in advance in order to minimise delays.

Significant Dates & Events

25 November – Bosnian Republic Day
25 November – Suriname celebrates its national day
26 November – Protests planed at London’s Libyan embassy due to the ongoing refugee crisis
26 November – The first round of the Nepal
26 November – Honduran general election
28 November – Albanian independence day
30 November – Milad in Nabi Islamic holiday starts
01 December – The Maldives celebrate Qaumme Dhuvs, victory over the Portuguese
01 December – 24 hour ground crew strike at Milan International Airport

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 47 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 47 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 47 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

21 Nov 17: Vessel Boarding 5nm from Lagos, Nigeria. The anchored vessel was boarded at 00:50UTC, in location 06°19N, 003°11E, by unknown persons using hook ropes on board two small boats. The patrol boat approached, forcing the two small boats to flee away. 21 Nov 17: Suspicious Sighting 1nm from Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire. The anchored MV was approached up to 20 yards by a small boat. The incident occurred at 21:40UTC in position 05°13N, 004°03W. Thirteen persons were sighted on board. Port control was informed and assistance was provided. The small boat left before the navy arrived. 22 Nov 17: Suspicious Approach 80nm from Bonny, Nigeria. The incident occurred at 02:35UTC in position 03°04N, 006°59W. The MV was followed by one speedboat carrying three persons on board. The speedboat approached up to 100 yards. The alarm was raised and evasive manoeuvres carried out. After two hours, the speedboat aborted the chase.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

17-18 Nov 17: Pirate Action Group (PAG) Operating in Southern Somali Basin. After two failed attacks were conducted on a container ship and fishing vessel over a 24 hour period, an announcement was made regarding an active PAG in position 0155.9S 04756.8E. The following day, EUNAVFOR announced six suspected pirates had been arrested in the area, and transferred to the Seychelles. 19 Nov 17: Suspicious Vessel Sighted Near IRTC Point B, Gulf of Aden. The MV was in position 1404N, 05147E. The skiff approached the vessel up to 1nm. Ladders were sighted. The MV increased speed and was reported as safe. 21 Nov 17: Vessel Attack Near Al Mukalla Port, Yemen. The vessel reported being under attack by four armed skiffs in position 14’08.7N, 048’57.3E at 1940UTC. The incident lasted for over an hour. 22 Nov 17: Suspicious Approach on MV 100 Miles East of Fujairah, UAE. The incident occurred at 20:30UTC in position 2451N, 05833E. The MV was approached by five skiffs which carried out dangerous manoeuvres in close proximity to the vessel.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

20 Nov 17: Attempted Boarding on Vessel Underway in Pulau Nipah, Indonesia. An unlit boar carrying eight robbers attempted to board a bulk carrier underway. The robbers were spotted by the crew who raised the alarm. The robbers escaped and the Singapore coast guard informed. SOUTH EAST ASIA 22 Nov 17: Local Vessel Carrying 3,700t of Palm Oil Hijacked in Singkawang, Indonesia. The pirates stole the cargo, however the crew were left behind on the tugboat Ever Prosper.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 47 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 47 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 46 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

11 Nov 17: Bulk Carrier Boarded 18nm Southwest of Bonny Island, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 05°01’18N, 008°05’35E and drifting. Pirates fired shots at the bridge causing some damage. Ten crew were kidnapped but were intercepted by the Nigerian Navy who rescued them. Five pirates were arrested. 12 Nov 17: Shipping Owner Confirms Kidnapped Crew are Released. The six crew members were captured on 21 October near the port of Onne, Nigeria. The crew were reported to be well. It is not confirmed whether a ransom was paid for their release. 16 Nov 17: Vessel Reports Pirate Attack 7nm from Fairway Buoy, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 04°07N, 006°57E at 1100UTC when the attack was reported. The vessel was reported as safe at 1430UTC. 16 Nov 17: Vessel Reports Attempted Boarding 60nm from Bonny, Nigeria. The vessel was in approximate position 03°30’N, 006°46E at 0945UTC when the attack was reported. Seven persons were sighted in a white boat, 5-6 metres in length.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

11 Nov 17: Saudi Coalition Foils Houthi Sea Mining Attempt. The plot was reportedly uncovered when coalition forces targeted a Houthi gathering on Bawadi island. 12 Nov 17: The Houthi Movement Threatens Oil Tankers Transiting the Region. The threat was made in retaliation for the Saudi-led blockade imposed on the Yemen’s air and sea ports. The blockades on Aden, Mocha and Mukalla were lifted on 13 November 2017. 15 Nov 17: Yemeni Troops Oust Al Qaeda from Southern Shabwa Province. Two hundred soldiers stormed the town of Houta, forcing the militants into the mountains.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

12 Nov 17: 55 Indian Fishermen Arrested by Pakistan Maritime Security Authority. They were arrested for allegedly fishing in the country’s territorial waters. Nine fishing boats were also seized in the four day operation in the Arabian Sea. 13 Nov 17: Underway Tanker Reports Suspicious Approach off Goa, India. The Japan-flagged MT Tosa tanker was on a collision course with a mother ship and two skiffs. The alarm was raised and anti-piracy measures conducted. Vessel was reported as safe.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 46 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 46 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46

Headlines From This Week

Coup in Zimbabwe – On 15 November, the military in Zimbabwe took over the running of the country. Long-time President Robert Mugabe has been put under house arrest, with reports suggesting he has refused to step aside. The coup has been peaceful and came about due to the issues of succession to the 93-year-old leader. The military moved after Mugabe sacked Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa last week, signalling that his wife Grace would be the one to take over. The situation in the country is very unclear at present.
Earthquake on Iran-Iraq Border – A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck close to the Iran-Iraq border, in Kermanshah Province, Iran on 12 November. There are differing estimates on the death toll with a figure as high as 530 reported in some media with most of the fatalities occurring in Iran. Thousands more have been injured and tens of thousands have been left homeless. The earthquake was felt as far away as Israel. Questions have been raised about the quality of buildings in the region, many of which collapsed.
End of Opposition in Cambodia – Prime Minister Hun Sen has increased his grip on power in Cambodia, after the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was banned by the Supreme Court on 16 November. 100 members of the CNRP were barred from politics for five years ‘for conspiring with foreigners to stage a revolution’. The US has already announced the suspension of financial support for the Cambodian National Election Committee ahead of the 2018 election. Further sanctions from Cambodia’s western partners should be expected but China has voiced support for the government. No significant protests have so far been reported.
Terrorism in Borno – A terror attack on the outskirts of Maiduguri in Nigeria’s Borno state led to the death of 18 people including four suicide bombers. At least 29 others have been seriously; the death toll is expected to rise. Two males and two females infiltrated the Muna Gari community. The attack has been attributed to the Islamic militant group Boko Haram.
Deadly Floods in Central Greece – At least 15 people have been killed after flash floods caused destruction to the west of Greece’s capital Athens. At least 37 others were taken to hospital. The towns of Mandra, Nea Peramos, and Megara were the most affected. Some roads faced more than a metre of water. The Greek Prime Minister declared a period of national mourning.
A North Korean Defector – A North Korean soldier was shot five times by his former comrades as he crossed the demilitarised zone to defect to South Korea. The South Korean military were put on high alert for fear of a retaliatory attack which never emerged. The identity of the defector remains unknown, but doctors have confirmed that he has ‘enormous parasites’.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Lebanon Crisis – The political crisis is ongoing in Lebanon. Despite suggesting he would be returning to Lebanon imminently, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has yet to do so. He has been invited to France by President Macron, who is seeking to mediate in the crisis. Some have suggested that this could lead to a long-term exile for Hariri. Lebanon celebrates its national day on 22 November, there is the potential for protests and demonstrations on this day.
US Remembrance Day – Authorities in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania have advised those attending Remembrance Day Parade on 18 November of a “possible threat”. Those attending have been asked not to bring large bags. There is set to be a large local, state, and federal police presence at the event.
Chile Elections – Chileans are set to elect a new president on 19 November. A run-off vote will occur in December if no candidate gains more than 50 per cent of the vote. Security is to be stepped up with 900 members of the national police force to be deployed. Delays and disruption can be expected within the vicinity of polling stations.

Significant Dates & Events

18 November – Latvian National Day 18 November – Morocco Independence Day 18 November – Oman National Day 19 November – Maldives National Day 19 November – Monaco National Day 20 November – Farmer’s association to rally in Delhi, India 21 November – Anti-austerity protests due to take place across the UK 24 November – Myanmar National Day 24 November – Sikh festival of Guru Tegh Bahadur

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 46 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Top Tips on What to Do During an Earthquake

It is estimated that as many 500,000 earthquakes occur every year with 100,000 able to be felt by humans. In certain places, minor earthquakes occur almost constantly. As the map below shows, tectonic plates are located all over the world. The most famous and impactful area for earthquakes is the so-called ‘ring of fire’ in the Pacific Ocean; about 90 per cent of all the world’s earthquakes occur in this area.

Most earthquakes are natural occurrences but human development has had an impact. The construction of dams and the impact of fracking for gas are thought to cause earthquakes or at least increase their impact.

It has been estimated that on average, there are 18 major earthquakes every year (those registering 7.0-7.9 on the Richter scale) and one great earthquake (those register 8.0 and above). Unlike volcanoes or tropical storms, scientists have found it impossible, at this point, to predict when an earthquake will occur.

What to Expect

Small to Moderate Earthquakes

Seismic movements which are lower on the Richter Scale can occur across the world, including in places like the United Kingdom, which is not on or near any tectonic plates. These earthquakes do not represent an emergency risk. When such quakes occur, you can expect:

Shaking to occur for only a few seconds.
Lights to move and some minor movement of objects to occur inside buildings.
To feel a small amount of shaking under your feet if outside.
To hear a bang if very close to the epicentre

Large Earthquakes

The impact on larger earthquakes, which includes everything from 5.0 on the Richter Scale, largely depends on where they occur and at what depth. Their impact may be felt for several minutes. However, in general when they do occur, you can expect the following.

The ground to potentially shake violently, in some cases strong enough to knock you off your feet.
To probably feel shaking followed by a sea-like rolling motion.
Buildings may sway and the earthquake is likely to cause a roaring sound.
To feel swaying if in the upper floors of a high-rise building.
Furniture and fixings may be thrown across the room, especially if unsecured, and windows may break.
It is possible that fire systems will be triggered with sprinklers and alarms activated.
You can also expect lights and power to go off.

What to do during an earthquake if you are inside

The first thing to do during an earthquake tremor is to drop to your hands and knees so the earthquake does not knock you down. You should then cover your head and neck with your arms as protection from falling debris.

You should then look for cover, if you can move safely; a sturdy table is suitable, hold on to the legs so that it stays over you to offer protection from falling objects. If this is not available, crawl away from outside walls and next to inside walls away from windows or any fixtures or furniture which could fall on you. Remember: ‘drop, cover, and hold on’

If you are in bed when the earthquake occurs you should stay in bed and cover your head and neck with a pillow unless there is something overhead that could fall on you and cause injury. At night, it is difficult to see any hazards or debris which have emerged and attempting movement in the darkness may result in further injuries.

If you are in a lift get off at the next available floor and find cover.

Stay inside, do not rush to get outside and await the end of the tremors.

What to do during an earthquake if you are outside:

If you are outside when shaking occurs, get to open space away from buildings, street lights, bridges/flyovers and overhead wires. Once in the open, you should ‘drop, cover, and hold on’. Then await the end of tremors.

If you are in a moving vehicle during an earthquake:

If driving when tremors begin, stop as quickly and safely as you can and apply the handbrake. Be aware of areas of potential landslides. Avoid stopping near buildings, trees, bridges, overpasses, and overhead wires. Once the earthquake tremors cease, proceed cautiously, avoid roads, bridges, and other infrastructure which may have been damage by the earthquake.

If you are trapped during an earthquake:

If the worse happens and you become trapped it is important to remain calm and not move about or kick up dust. If you have a phone, try to use it to call for help. If possible, try tapping on a pipe or use a whistle so rescuers can locate you. Shouting should be a final measure taken as it is important to not inhale too much dust and debris.

If you are not trapped when tremors stop:

When shaking stops, leave the building if it is safe to do so and get to an open space away from any damaged areas.

If the building is undamaged, check for the smell of gas, turn it off at the main valve. If wiring is damaged turn that off at the main switch board. Check for fires and evacuate the building if they are many or too large to safely extinguish.

Monitor local media through any means for information and instruction.

Check for any injuries and give treatment (provided you are trained to do so). Then assist with rescues if it is safe to do so.

Be prepared for a tsunami in coastal areas, learn if the area you are in is usually impacted by post-earthquake tsunamis. A strong earthquake that lasts more than 20 seconds in a tsunami zone will mean evacuation is imperative. If this is the case, once shaking has stopped, move inland and to higher ground immediately and continue to monitor for local instruction or evacuations. If you can see the waves you are still too close. Remain on high ground, tsunami waves can last up to 8 hours or longer, only return when officials say it is safe to do so.

Maintain extreme caution in post-earthquake clean-up. Do not remove heavy debris alone and remember to use appropriate clothing and tools.

Be ready for aftershocks and be prepared to ‘drop, cover, and hold on’, should they occur.

Most earthquake-related injuries are caused by collapsing walls, objects falling, or glass shattering, rather than ground vibrations directly causing injury.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45

Headlines From This Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump presently in Vietnam as part of a five-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour has resulted in substantially enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. The Japanese, Korean and Chinese visits occurred without violent issues. Disruption to travel, however, is highly likely to occur in the locations he is yet to visit. Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila are the final locations to host the President’s tour.
Typhoon Damrey – Struck Vietnam as a Category Two storm through 03 to 05 November. Extremely high rainfall led to extensive flooding, particularly in central Vietnam, with at least 106 people being killed, and approximately 200 remaining missing. Initial estimates suggest that over $330 million of damage was caused, with over 116,000 homes suffering extensive damage.
Corruption Arrests in Saudi Arabia – A new anti-corruption committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, detained approximately 200 senior officials, including senior ministers and members of the House of Saud royal family. This marked a substantial departure from the norm within the Kingdom, issues within the royal family are generally resolved out of the public eye. Two senior princes also died, one in a helicopter crash, and one in mysterious circumstances, although these deaths cannot be directly linked to the apparent purge.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Resigned – The Lebanese Prime Minister, al-Harari, resigned whilst in Saudi Arabia, potentially triggering a crisis in the precariously balanced political structure of the country. Al-Harari alleged his resignation was due to the threat of assassination. His presence in Saudi Arabia has, however, led to speculation that he may have been entangled in the Kingdom’s corruption scandal, or otherwise pressured into resignation as part of a broader Saudi power-play in the region. There is a realistic probability that sectarian unrest in Lebanon will follow.
Liberian Elections Delayed – the Liberian Supreme Court delayed the second round of the Liberian presidential elections due to allegations of malpractice by the third-placed candidate. The basis of these allegations has yet to be established; international observers raised no issues. There is a possibility of unrest between the supporters of the three major parties. A new poll date has yet to be confirmed.
Catalan Officials Charged with Rebellion – Six senior former members of the Catalan regional government have been charged by the Spanish government with rebellion and sedition. The allegations centre to their activities in support of the illegal Catalan independence referendum. The former Catalan prime minister, Charles Puigdemont, remains in Brussels with an outstanding extradition request. Protests can be expected across Catalonia for the duration of court proceedings.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ASEAN Summit – The Association of South East Asian Nations is scheduled to meet between 13-15 November in Manila, the Philippines. The dates of the summit have been declared “non-working days” in Manila and the surrounding provinces. Extensive disruption should be expected to services, although major banks will remain open across the Metro Manila area. Substantially enhanced security measures and road closures should be expected.
Russia-Turkey Summit – Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are scheduled to conduct a summit in Sochi, Russia, concerning future economic cooperation, and military activities in Syria. The outcome of this summit is likely to have a substantial impact in the balance of power between the various military and paramilitary groups operating in Iraq and Syria.

Significant Dates & Events

11 November – Angolan independence day
12 November – Equatorial Guinea to hold general elections
12 November – Slovenian presidential elections
12 November – Anti-racism rally to be held in central Montreal
13 November – Mykonos Airport, Greece, to close until 29 November due to scheduled maintenance
13 November – Somaliland regional elections
14 November – Irish railway workers to conduct a 24 hour strike
15 November – Republic Day in northern Cyprus
15 November – Sikh festival, Guru Nanak’s birthday celebration
16 November – General election to be held in Tonga
17 November – Pakistan People’s Party due to hold protests in central Punjab

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 45 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 45 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Nov 17: Suspicious Approach in Lome Anchorage, Togo. A merchant vessel was approached at 0030UTC by a boat containing seven masked persons, who attempted to board. A Togo Navy patrol vessel responded to MV’s distress call and the suspicious vessel moved away. MV and crew were unharmed. 03 Nov 17: Niger Delta Avengers End Ceasefire.. The Niger Delta Avengers, a militant group which caused substantial disruption to oil and gas facilities in 2016, announced the termination of its ceasefire with the Nigerian government. No attacks have yet occurred, but the group retains the capability and intent to conduct attacks in the region. 06 Nov 17: Kidnapped Missionaries Recovered. Three of four British missionaries and aid workers kidnapped from their camp in the Niger Delta were recovered unharmed by security forces. The fourth kidnap victim died in captivity. 08 Nov 17: Operation Crocodile Smile II Complete. The Nigerian Army declared Operation Crocodile Smile, an operation to dismantle militant and criminal groups in the south of the country and the Delta region, a success. Official reporting suggests that 46 illegal oil bunkers were located and destroyed, along with the associated equipment. The recent spike in pirate activity in the Gulf of Guinea may have been due to criminal groups relocating their activities whilst this operation was ongoing.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

08 Nov 17: Two Skiffs Approached a Merchant Vessel in the Bab el Mandeb. A Merchant Vessel in position 1230N 04337E, near Mayyun Island, was approached by two skiffs with seven persons on board. The skiffs approached the MV at speed to within 100m before withdrawing. Vessel and crew were unharmed.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

03 Nov 17: Supply Ship Boarded at Batu Ampar. Three armed men boarded a supply ship in Batu Ampar anchorage at 1909UTC. They threatened a crew member before fleeing. A search of the vessel established that they had escaped with ship’s stores. 03 Nov 17: Bulk Carrier Boarded in Muara Berau Anchorage, Indonesia. Two armed robbers boarded the vessel in approximate position 0°15’73S, 117°35’50E at 2050UTC. Duty AB was threatened, and attackers escaped with stolen ships properties when the alarm was raised.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 45 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. Week 45 Maritime Security Snapshot is compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44

Headlines From The Week

Manhattan Terror Attack – Eight people were killed after an Uzbek immigrant drove a truck down a cycle path in Manhattan, New York City. He then hit a school bus before exiting the vehicle holding a pellet gun and a paintball gun; he was subsequently shot, injured, and arrested by police. The incident has been treated as a terror attack, with the attacker reportedly inspired by Islamic State. Almost a dozen others were injured.
Eritrea Clashes – Security forces clashed with student protestors in the Eritrean capital of Asmara. 28 people were allegedly killed and more than 100 injured on 07 November. These figures cannot be verified as they came from an anti-government activist group, though the US embassy did confirm reports of gunfire. Eritrea remains a hermit state, which many have called ‘the North Korea of Africa’.
Ethiopia – At least 19 people died in two separate incidents across Ethiopia in a series of incidents that demonstrate rising ethnic tensions in the nation. A sugar protest in Oromia state lead to 11 fatalities and 245 arrests, with Oromia-Amhara tensions being a contributing factor. In western Gumuz state, a further eight were killed and 11 arrested after ethnic Amhara and Gumuz groups engaged in violence following a personal feud.
North Korea warnings – The South Korean intelligence agency reported that the North was likely to recommence the refinement of nuclear materials before the end of 2017, and that facilities were prepared for another nuclear test with little to no warning. There is a realistic possibility that North Korea will carry out a further nuclear test during President Trump’s tour of Asia, or in the build up to the South Korean Winter Olympics in early 2018. Seismologists have detected a notable increase in instability in the North Korean nuclear test area following their most recent test, which could be notably worsened by further testing.
India power plant – At least 29 people were killed following an explosion at the National Thermal Power Corporation’s site in Uttar Pradesh. Preliminary investigations indicate that the blast was the result of lax safety and operations procedures, not of intentional sabotage.
France State of Emergency – Two years after its initial implementation, France has rescinded its State of Emergency due to the threat of terrorism. A series of new legislation has enacted some powers from the State of Emergency into routine legal and law enforcement practice, in order to better deal with the ongoing threat.
Kenya Elections – The incumbent President, Uhuru Kenyatta, was formally declared the winner of the 26 October poll, with approximately 98 per cent of the vote after the principal opposition group opted to boycott the election. Opposition leaders have called for ongoing civil disobedience.

What To Look Out For Next Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump is scheduled to complete a six-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour is highly likely to attract an enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. Disruption to travel, therefore, is highly likely. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila will host the President throughout this period.
International Cube Day – “Anonymous for the Voiceless’, an animal, environment, and health rights groups have organised ‘International Cube Day’ in 186 cities around the world to demonstrate for their causes. It is unclear how much disruption their demonstrations will cause; their Facebook event pages do not suggest that more than a dozen attendees will be at each of the ‘cubes’, however the number of events to be held is significant.
Tropical Storm Damrey – Flooding is expected across Vietnam and Thailand as Tropical Storm Damrey crosses from west to east across the region. Areas struck by the storm are likely to receive between 150mm and 300mm of rain. This level of rainfall is highly likely to lead to landslides and protracted disruption.

Significant Dates & Event

04 November – Far right group Forza Nuova group plans to protest in Rome.
04 November – Government-authorised ultra-nationalist march planned in southern Moscow.
05 November – Pakistan People’s Party rally in Punjab’s Layyah.
05 November – Million Mask March in London’s Trafalgar Square.
06 November – Asia Pacific Economic Conference in Da Nang, Vietnam.
06 November – Sicily’s Vincenzo Florio Airport to close for five days.
07 November – Nationwide Italian taxi-drivers protest due to new licensing rules.
07 November – Liberian presidential election run-off.
09 November – Falkland Island elections. Protests possible in Buenos Aires.
09 November – Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Brazil.
10 November – Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Manila.

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 44 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43

Headlines From This Week

Kenya Presidential Elections – The re-run of the August 2017 elections was held on 26 October. The vote was marred by widespread violence, a boycott by the opposition NASA and its leader Raila Odinga, and a turnout of around 35 per cent. President Kenyatta looks set to win this latest poll, but it is unclear if a further vote will be forced to take place. Violence, however, is expected to continue in NASA strongholds especially.
Piracy near Bonny Island – On 24 October, six crew members were kidnapped from a Liberia-flagged, Germanowned container vessel in the Gulf of Guinea. Eight attackers approached the vessel in a black speedboat prior to boarding the ship and seizing crew. The remaining 12 crew members navigated the ship to safer waters after the pirates departed.
Niger Police Attacked on Mali Border – Gunmen attacked and killed 13 Niger police officers near the Mali border. The attack occurred close to where four US soldiers were killed in early October 2017. The militants were reportedly heavily armed on pickup trucks and motorcycles, crossing from Mali into Niger to conduct their attack. There are several Islamic militant groups active in the area. This incident demonstrates the instability in this region.
Temer Avoids Corruption Trial – Brazil’s embattled president has avoided a corruption trial after securing enough votes in the lower house of Congress. He has been accused of obstructing justice and racketeering. Temer faced a similar vote in August of this year. It is possible that this will lead to unrest on the streets of Brazil with Temer currently enduring the lowest recorded approval ratings in Brazilian history.
The Battle for Catalonia – The political battle between Madrid and the Catalan region escalated this week. The regional government in Catalonia voted to declare independence 70-10 in a vote boycotted by the opposition. This move is unlikely to be ratified by the Spanish Constitutional Court or be recognised by any international government. In Madrid, the Senate voted 214 votes to 47 to approve measures allowing Spain to impose direct rule over the autonomous region. Further protests are likely and may turn violent.
Turkey-Iraq Border – The Turkish and Iraqi governments have finalised an agreement to open a second border crossing in order to bypass the Kurdish Regional Government, which presently controls the official route between the two countries. This highlights that both parties consider the issue of Kurdish independence and control of the border as a notable and ongoing threat to their national relations. The move will also deprive the Kurdish region of the leverage and income opportunities provided by control of the trade route.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Morocco Protests – The Hirak committee has called for demonstrations across Morocco on 28 October 2017. This latest wave of protest began after a fishmonger was killed by a rubbish truck last year. Unrest is most prevalent in the turbulent Al-Hoceima and Rif regions, in the north of the country. Violence has been reported in previous protests, with clashes between protestors and security personnel a strong possibility.
Tropical Storm Selma – Another tropical storm looks set to hit the Americas. Selma has formed off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica and is expected to move inland over El Salvador and Guatemala over the weekend. While the storm is unlikely to strengthen further, it is expected to bring flash flooding, mudslides, and gale-force winds. The impact of Selma is already being felt in the region.
Pro-Palestine Protests – A series of pro-Palestine protests are due to take place next week. This includes one outside of the Israeli Embassy in Pretoria in South Africa, in Ireland outside of the British Embassy (both on 02 November), and in London, United Kingdom on 04 November.

Significant Dates & Events

28 October – Opposition rally planned in Baku, Azerbaijan
28 October – Czech Republic marks its independence from Austria-Hungary
28 October – South Korean trade unions plan to rally
28 October – Taipei, Taiwan hosts a LGBT pride parade
29 October – Turkey celebrates its Republic Day
01 November – Algeria celebrates its Revolution Day
01 November – Christian holiday of All Saints Day
01 November – Antigua and Barbuda Independence Day
03 November – Dominica Independence Day
03 November – Panama celebrates Separation Day
03 November – Military drills planned in Sharjah, UAE

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 43 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 43 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.