Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 07

Headlines From This Week

17 Dead in United States School Shooting – 17 people were killed after a gunman opened fire at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, United States. The only suspect, who was arrested by police, is a disgruntled former student who was reportedly a member of a white nationalist hate group. Reports suggest that the FBI and the school had been warned about his potentially extreme behaviour.

Zuma Resigns – After months of mounting pressure, Jacob Zuma has resigned as the President of South Africa on 14 February after his own party told him to step down or face a vote of no-confidence. Cyril Ramaphosa, who succeeded Zuma as head of the ruling African National Congress, has also succeeded Zuma as President. It is hoped that Ramaphosa will help combat the rampant corruption in the country; Zuma faces multiple corruption allegations but denies any wrongdoing.

Russia Plane Crash – All 71 people on the Antonov An-148 Saratov Airlines flight were killed after crashing minutes after taking off from Moscow’s Domodedovo airport on 11 February. It is currently unclear what caused the plane, en route to Orsk in the Ural Mountains, to crash; however, reports suggest that ice on airspeed sensors may have been a major contributing factor.
Netanyahu on the Brink – Israeli police issued a recommendation for charges to be raised against Prime Minister Netanyahu due to corruption allegations. The decision to indict the Prime Minister lies with the Attorney General, who continues to assess the evidence. If an indictment is pursued, it is likely to force an election; Netanyahu heads a coalition government and the other parties in the coalition may seek to distance themselves from an ongoing corruption scandal.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Resigns – Following a series of protests and road blocks around Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Hailemariam issued his resignation, but will continue to serve until his EPRDF party congress selects his replacement. Over recent months a series of detained opposition politicians and journalists have been pardoned or released from prison. A state of emergency has been declared as of 16 February.

Egyptian Security Forces Killed 53 Insurgents – A major counter-insurgency operation in the Sinai peninsula resulted in Egyptian forces targeting insurgent groups and their infrastructure in the restive region. At least 53 insurgents were reported killed, five surrendered, and 680 alleged collaborators were detained. A wide range of materiel, including weapons and explosives, were also recovered. It is unclear whether this operation will improve the region’s security environment or lead to elevated levels of violence as insurgent groups carry out revenge attacks.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Kosovo’s Independence Day – On 17 February, Kosovo celebrates its independence day from Serbia. The state remains unrecognised by a majority of other nations, and continues to be contentious both domestically, and with its neighbours. The celebration generally passes peacefully, however the recent assassination of a Kosovan-Serb politician, Oliver Ivanovic, on 16 January 2018 is likely to lead to elevated tensions in both Kosovo and Serbia.
Anti-Poroshenko Protests in Ukraine – Groups opposed to Ukrainian President Poroshenko planned rallies across Ukraine on 18 February in response to recent political events, including the removal of citizenship, and functional exile, of Saakashvili, an outspoken anti-corruption activist. Although Saakashvili has relatively limited support in Ukraine, the ongoing issues concerning his treatment have highlighted government contempt for the rule of law, and focused attention on the treatment of other opposition groups.
Bolivia Protests and Strikes – Trade unions and activist groups in Bolivia have called for further strikes and protests on 21 February. Demonstrations have escalated recently due to the recent action by President Morales and the Supreme Court to lift term limits on the Presidency, and a sweeping reform of the penal code. Celebrations or protests in Bolivia have recently been marred by violence, and protesters recently establish roadblocks. Travellers should anticipate significant disruption across the country, and maintain a low profile.
Robert Mugabe National Youth Day – The new Zimbabwean President, Mnangagwa, declared 21 February a national holiday on the day he took office, following a bloodless coup against former President Mugabe. Considering the controversy concerning Mugabe’s rule, it is a realistic possibility that the first celebration of a day named in his honour may be met by limited protests or demonstrations. Morgan Tsvangirai, a prominent opposition leader, and former Prime Minister died on 14 February 2018, there may be additional local events mourning his death.
Nigerian Fuel Crisis – The Nigerian government announced that the fuel crisis, ongoing since November, would continue and announced additional measures would be implemented. Broad discontent across rural areas outside Abuja and Lagos is likely to lead to intermittent civil unrest, as the new measures focus on maintaining supplies to urban centres rather than rural communities.

Significant Dates and Events

17 February – Kosovo – Independence Day
17 February – Serbia – Right-Wing Activists Plan to Rally Against Kosovan Independence
17 February – Libya – 17 February Revolution Day
17 February – Poland – Far right march planned in Krakow
18 February – The Gambia – Independence Day
18 February – Nepal – National Democracy Day
18 February – Ukraine – Anti-Poroshenko Nationwide Marches
19 February – Orthodox Shrove Monday
19 February – Ethiopia – Martyrs’ Day
19 February – United States – Presidents’ Day
19 February – Turkmenistan – National Flag Day
20 February – Venezuela – Federation Day
20 February – Greece – Bus Workers to conduct Six-Hour Strike
20 February – Denmark – Funeral of Prince Consort Henrik
20 February – Romania – Anti-Corruption March Planned in Bucharest
20 February – Argentina – Women’s Rights Groups to Rally in Buenos Aires
21 February – Bolivia – Civic Groups Call for Nationwide Strikes and Protests
21 February – Bangladesh – Martyr’s Day
21 February – Bhutan – Birthday of fifth Druk Gyalpo (Current King of Bhutan)
21 February – South Africa – Armed Forces Day
21 February – Zimbabwe – Robert Gabriel Mugabe National Youth Day
21 February – Morocco – General Strike Planned in Rif Region
22 February – St. Lucia – Independence Day
22 February – France – Air France Staff to Strike
23 February – Brunei – National Day
23 February – Guyana – Republic Day
23 February – Israel – Tel Aviv Marathon
23 February – Djibouti – Parliamentary Elections
23 February – Russia – Defender of the Fatherland Day
23 February – Spain – Catalan Separatists to Rally in major cities

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 07 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 07 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 06 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

09 Feb 18: Crew kidnapped from vessel south-west of Idenao, Cameroon. A Chinese-flagged fishing vessel was attacked by armed men at 04°06’00N, 08°51’00E. The attackers kidnapped three crewmembers and escaped. 09 Feb 18: Vessel attacked south of Brass. A merchant vessel reported coming under attack near 03°43’0N, 06°45’0E. The vessel took evasive action and escaped the attackers. Further details remain unclear. 07 Feb 18: Suspicious approach reported in Gulf of Guinea. A skiff approached at speed with a merchant vessel in the Gulf of Guinea at 03°28’0N, 06°56’0E, closing to within 1nm before changing course. Vessel security team was stood-to. 06 Feb 18: Hijacked vessel and crew released. The tanker, Marine Express, and its crew were released unharmed following its hijacking on 01 February 2018.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

08 Feb 18: Houthi Capability Assessment. Israeli naval sources released a report suggesting that, in a wider regional conflict, Yemeni Houthi rebels have the capability to close the southern Red Sea to merchant traffic. This statement strongly links this capability to ongoing Iranian support for the group.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

11 Feb 18: Attempted boarding in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Five men, armed with knives, attempted to board a bulk carrier at 22°07’70N, 91°43’41. The crew spotted the attackers and readied fire hoses. The attackers escaped empty handed. 09 Feb 18: Attempted boarding in Kolkata, India. A duty crewman spotted a three people attempting to climb the anchor chain of a bulk carrier at 22°11’56N, 88°09’59. Upon being spotted, the robbers aborted their attempt to board and fled.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 06 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 06 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 06

Headlines From This Week

Former-Prime Minister Sentenced in Bangladesh – Former-Prime Minister and current opposition leader in Bangladesh, Khaleda Zia, has been sentenced to five years in prison on corruption charges. Zia and her supporters have called the claims politically-motivated. Clashes occurred outside of the courthouse as the sentence came down on 08 February. One fatality has been reported as well as 25 injuries.

Winter Olympics Begin – The Opening Ceremony for the 2018 Winter Olympics took place in Pyeongchang, South Korea on 09 February. The Games have been overshadowed by the threat of North Korea. However, Pyongyang has sent an Olympic delegation and has entered competitors in a series of different sports including women’s ice hockey, where North and South Korea will field a single, combined team. Some anti-Pyongyang protests have occurred at North Korean events, as well as before the Opening Ceremony.

Deadly Earthquake in Taiwan – At least ten people were killed and 270 injured after a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck north of the Taiwanese city of Hualien on 06 February. A series of significant aftershocks have hampered search and rescue attempts. At the latest count, seven people remain unaccounted for.

Economic Instability – Global stock markets faced a volatile week. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell by more than 1,000 points on 08 February, this followed similar losses on 05 February. These losses come amid recent stock market records. Share prices in Asia and Europe have faced similar volatility which have been attributed to concerns over inflation, the US budget deal, and a potential interest rate rise. The US government was briefly shutdown for the second time in month overnight on the 08-09 February, but US lawmakers eventually passed a budget to fund the government for two years. The budget will increase spending in a number of areas, including defence, where spending will rise nine per cent.

US Airstrike in Syria – The United States conducted a series of air and artillery strikes in Deir al-Zour province, Syria overnight on 07 February, targeting government forces. Commentators have suggested that United States has drawn a line in the sand and wants to prevent pro-regime troops from recovering territory east of Euphrates River, which is currently held by US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Syrian President Assad has labelled the attack, which killed 100 of 500 advancing troops, a “brutal massacre”.

Post-Election Violence in Guinea – At least seven people have been killed in post-election riots in the west African nation of Guinea. Local elections took place on 04 February and were the first since the end of a period of military rule; riots occurred amid electoral fraud allegations. Further unrest is expected as full results will only be released on 09 February.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Lunar New Year – The Lunar New Year, commonly known as Chinese New Year, begins on 16 February. Celebrations occur not only in China but across East Asia with Vietnam, Japan, Korea, and Mongolia all celebrating their own traditions. Other New Year events should be expected in locations with significant populations of those of East Asian origin. Travellers should expect extensive travel delays in countries in East Asia as well as disruption of government and official affairs.

Munich Security Conference – The 54^th Munich Security Conference, a leading international forum on security policy, is set to take place between 16 and 18 February, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich, Germany. More than 20 heads of state and government and around 75 foreign and defence ministers are expected to attend. 4,000 police officers are due to be deployed and several road closures will be put in place; trams will not stop at Karlsplatz. A rally has already been announced in opposition to the conference for 17 February, with around 4,000 activists set to attend. Police are also anticipating 20 more smaller gatherings.

ELN Three-Day National Blockade – The National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group in Colombia are due to hold a 72-hour national blockade beginning at 0600 hours on 10 February, to protest the government’s suspension of peace negotiations. In western Colombia, especially coastal Choco province where the group is active, citizens are encouraged not to travel, as transport on roads and waterways will be halted. Some violence should be expected during this period.

Significant Dates and Events

09-14 February – Carnival celebrations (notably Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
10 February – Fenkil Day (Commemorates the Battle of Massawa), Eritrea
11 February – Youth Day, Cameroon
11 February – Victory of Islamic Revolution Day, Iran
11 February – Foundation Day, Japan
12 February – Myanmar Unity Day
14 February – Anniversary of 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (Lebanon)
15 February – Liberation Day, Afghanistan
16 February – Statehood Day, Serbia
16 February – Anniversary of Kim Jong-il’s birthday

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 06 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 06 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Pyeongchang Olympics Risk Summary

The Winter Olympics is set to begin in Pyeongchang, South Korea on 09 February. Travel to the country brings a unique set of challenges and issues to overcome. For more on the Olympics, how to prepare and, what to expect when travelling to South Korea, please take a look at our risk summary below or download this information as a PDF from the following link: Solace Global – Event Advisory – Pyeongchang Olympics Risk Summary

THE ROAD TO PYEONGCHANG…

16 Oct 2009 – Pyeongchang submits bid to host games
06 Jul 2011 – Pyeongchang selected as winner
24 Oct 2017 – Olympic Torch Relay commenced
09 Feb 2018 – Olympics Opening Ceremony
25 Feb 2018 – Olympics Closing Ceremony
09 Mar 2018 – Paralympics Opening Ceremony
18 Mar 2018 – Paralympics Closing Ceremony

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT KEY FACTS

Estimated 43,703 (Pyeongchang County, as of 2014)
Population: 219,274 (Gangneung Metropolitan Area, as of 2012)
Geographic Area: 1,464 Km² (Pyeongchang County) 1,039.99 km² (Gangneung Metropolitan Area)
Language: Korean
Religion: Non-religious/traditional beliefs, Christianity, Buddhism
Weather: Cold & temperate (Pyeongchang) Warm & temperate, heavy rainfall (Gangneung)
GMT: +9
Capital: Seoul
Currency: South Korean Won
Emergency Services: 119 (Fire & Medical) 112 (Police)

PYEONGCHANG OLYMPICS KEY FACTS

COUNTRIES: 94

A record 94 countries are sending athletes to the 2018 Games. With North and South Korea competing under one flag. The Korean women’s ice hockey team will feature athletes from both countries. 2018 has seen a thawing of interKorean relations, after high tensions throughout 2017.

ATHLETES: 2,900

More than 2,900 athletes will compete at the Games. Russia has been banned from attending but more than 160 Russians will compete under the Olympics flag. The United States will send the most athletes, with nearly 250 planned competitors.

TICKETS: 1.07MILLION

1.07 million tickets for the Games will be on sale. So far, about 75% have been sold. The figure is lower than in comparison with Sochi 2014. Security is the most prominent factor contributing to a lack of sales, though the Russian doping scandal and a lack of local interest have also been contributing factors.

SECURITY: 5,000

North Korean unpredictability remains the most obvious security challenge. 5,000 members of the military will be deployed for the Games. There are also plans for 15,000 volunteers to support the running of the Games.

OLYMPIC VENUES: 13

The events for the Games will be in Gangwon Province. Specifically in the Pyeongchang Mountain Cluster (snow events), Jeongseon (alpine speed events), and Gangneung (ice events).

LOCAL ETIQUETTE

Business dress is strictly formal; men generally wear dark suits, and women, typically modest dresses. Although this may later be relaxed, adherence to this code is advisable for early meetings. Dressing well is considered a sign of respect.
It is customary to greet people with a bow from the waist. A handshake may also be a substitute. More established acquaintances typically abbreviate the bow to a nod of the head.
When taking something from an older or senior person always use two hands; if you must use one hand, you should support your right arm with your left hand. This extends to the exchange of business cards. Another convention is to support your right arm with your left hand when shaking hands with somebody older or more senior. When talking to someone older, direct eye contact should generally be avoided.
Korean society places great emphasis on “face”. Embarrassing situations are to be avoided, or downplayed, as much as possible. This also makes it unusual to receive an apology if someone bumps into you.
Buddhist temples often display Swastikas. It originates as a local religious or spiritual symbol and has no connection to the Third Reich or Nazism.
Initial conversations are likely to cover a great deal of breadth rapidly; this may include questions about family, career, age, and education. This is not seen as intrusive, however brief answers are acceptable if you do not wish to divulge excessive detail.
Tipping is not expected in South Korea (but is welcomed), however a service charge of around 10% may be charged (compulsory) by hotels.
Bargaining is acceptable at open markets, but not so welcomed in shops and stores.
At some restaurants, you are required to take off your shoes before entering the dining area (usually a wooden floored area). If going to the bathroom, you should use sandals which are usually provided.
If you are an important guest, it can be considered rude to pour your own drink, and this must be poured for you by the person sitting next to you. If you are not an important guest, you should pour another’s drink before pouring your own.
Do not raise bowls to your mouth when eating. Leave the table to blow your nose and do not make any loud noises at the table.
The number four is considered unlucky (tetraphobia) due to its similarity to the Chinese character for death (common in East Asian nations). Even giving gifts in multiples of four is unadvisable. Contrarily, the number seven is considered lucky.
Kissing in public is discouraged, especially around older Koreans, as it is considered highly immodest.
Physical contact can be considered a personal violation, this includes back slapping and patting. Unless you have a very close relationship with someone, it is advisable not to touch them.

SCAMS

Fake Hotel Scams: South Korea has the world fastest internet connections and the greatest internet penetration. Accordingly, a proportional amount of criminal activity and scams are based online. Travellers frequently are targeted by false websites offering modern hotels at low prices. Upon arrival, the hotel either does not exist, or is poorly maintained or an unregistered bedsit. Travellers are advised to undertake proper due diligence on any accommodation or book through a reputable agency.
Begging: Foreigners in South Korea can be specifically targeted by beggars who may solicit donations forcefully or apply pressure through unsolicited physical contact. Avoid giving any indication of where your wallet or cash is stored in case they are seeking to distract you for a pickpocket.
The ‘Taxis Parked in Front of Your Hotel’ Scam: In front of many four & five-star hotel there are taxis waiting all day. Despite appearances, these taxis are not associated with the hotel. These drivers may not switch on their meters when picking up passengers and instead insist on an excessive charge whilst already in motion. Travellers should be aware of taxis which wait outside of hotels. If you need a taxi, ask your hotel to order one for you from a reputable company and ensure they meter your journey. If the vehicle has a meter, it should be used, if not, agree the price before setting off.
The ‘Tour guide’ Scam: A traveller will be approached by a friendly local who speaks good English and has some anecdotes about the traveller’s country of birth. They offer to take the tourist on a tour for a tiny price. For the whole excursion, they seem genuine and kind, however will make efforts to steer travellers towards businesses owned by relatives or friends, who will then pressure the travellers to purchase merchandise at heavily elevated prices. Travellers should be cautious of strangers with intentions too good to be true; invariably they are. If you wish to take a sightseeing tour, prearrange through a reputable agent.
Overcharging: Travellers should be aware that foreigners can be overcharged while shopping. This can be intentional or unintentional (inability to read or understand labels). In restaurants, adhere to dishes on the menu and check the bill prior to payment.
Racism: Travellers to, and foreign residents in, South Korea have noted a prevalence of racism within the country. Travellers should note that, unlike many countries in the west, South Korea is ethnically homogenous, with more than 99 percent of inhabitants having Korean ethnicity. The judiciary in South Korea have been accused of being heavily biased against foreigners. If there is a dispute with a local, the law will almost always rule in favour of the local against the foreigner. Even if physically assaulted by a local, it is possible that retaliation will cause significant legal problems. For road traffic accidents or incidents of dispute, it is important that a Korean speaker or Korean local is contacted, in order to get both sides of the story.

SECURITY SUMMARY

South Korea, or the Republic of Korea (ROK), holds a geographically and politically important position in the region. The country has excellent relations with the United States, China, and increasingly, with Japan. The ROK’s most substantial threat comes from the aggressive North Korea, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The ROK’s alliances are mainly used to help manage the continued threat from the DPRK. ROK-DPRK relations have improved somewhat since the beginning of the year, with both Koreas to march under one flag at the opening ceremony.

Both sides of the demilitarised zone maintain some degree of communication. Indeed, President Moon, elected in 2017, has sought to offer an olive branch to South Korea’s northern neighbour, returning to the ‘Sunshine Policy’ (to a large extent) of the post-millennium leadership in Seoul.

Throughout 2017, Pyongyang has tested a series of missiles including those which passed over Japan. More concerningly, in early September 2017, the DPRK conducted its most powerful nuclear test to date, causing a 6.3- magnitude earthquake. While low-level border skirmishes have taken place historically, especially over the disputed Yeonpyeong Islands, the chances for an imminent return to full-blown conflict before or during the Olympics remain unlikely. This is due to the present relationships. The US maintains a force of nearly 30,000 personnel in the ROK to assist in the country’s defence. Also, North Korea maintains a largely friendly relationship with China and Russia which are both sending athletes to compete in the Games (the latter under a neutral flag). Moreover, North Korea athletes, including two figure skaters, are due to compete at the Games.

These facts ensure that the risk of a DPRK missile attack during the Games is LOW.

GENERAL TRAVEL ADVICE

Although South Korea can be considered very safe (especially in terms of crime and terrorist threat), it is advisable to remain aware of your surroundings to at least the same degree as you would in any other developed country.

Take extra care of passports, credit cards and wallets/purses when in crowded or tourist areas. Take extra care when travelling alone or at night, and make sure to use a legitimate means of transport such as public transport or metered taxis.

Be sure to carry a form of ID as well as details of your next of kin. Avoid carrying any valuables in a backpack as this is an easy target for thieves.

When air pollution is high, follow local advice and stay hydrated, indoors, with the windows closed when possible.

South Korean security forces often hold Civil Emergency Exercises in major cities, usually involving evacuation to a safe area such as a metro station. Although you do not have to participate as a foreign national, it is best to follow the instruction of the authorities when the sirens sound indicating an exercise. Be aware that the judiciary has been accused of being biased against foreigners and will nearly always side with locals in any disputes.

There are heavy penalties for drug offences, even for personal use, and foreign nationals can be detained purely on the basis of drug tests.

Week 05 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

01 Feb 18: Potential hijacking, Cotonou, Benin. Communications were lost with a product tanker carrying 13,500t of gasoline and 22 crew members. Last reported location 06°15’57N, 02°30’30E. The owner of Marine Express has engaged with crisis resolution specialists due to the high likelihood of this being a hijacking event. 31 Jan 18: Attempted Theft at Lagos Anchorage. A duty crewman spotted two small boats tied to the anchor chain, and a suspicious person on the forecastle of a tanker in Lagos Anchorage. Duty officer sounded the foghorn and mustered the crew. Robbers escaped empty-handed.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

02 Feb 18: Red Sea ports. Al Hudaidah and Saleef ports were open to humanitarian shipping with UNVIM permissions. Mokha and Balhaf remain closed to all traffic.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

31 Jan 18: Crew member assaulted, Godau, Vietnam. Two armed men boarded a bulk carrier anchored in Godau. They assaulted and restrained the bosun before stealing ship’s stores. 30 Jan 18: Vessel boarded in Kutubdia, Bangladesh. Five armed rubbers boarded an anchored bulk carrier in Kutubdia anchorage. The duty crewman was threatened as he raised the alarm. The attackers escaped with ship’s stores, which were later returned by Bangladeshi coastguards.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 05 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 05 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 05

Headlines From This Week

A Further Terror Attack in Kabul – A suicide bombing in Kabul killed at least 95 people on 27 January. More than 150 others were wounded as Taliban attackers drove an ambulance laden with explosives past a police checkpoint in one of the most secure areas of the Afghan capital. This comes a week after the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul was also attacked by Taliban gunmen.

Dozens Feared Drowned off Libyan Coast – 90 migrants are feared dead after their boat capsized off the Libyan coast. Three survivors suggested that those who drowned were predominantly Pakistani. At least ten bodies have washed ashore in Libya at the time of writing. Overall this year, it has been reported that there have been 6,624 arrivals of migrants by sea to Europe, up from 5,983 in the same period of 2017.

Mass Unrest Across Russia – Protests were recorded in at least 100 locations across Russia on 28 January as citizens, led by anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, called for a boycott of elections in March 2018. Navalny was one of more than 250 protestors who were detained by police, but he was subsequently released.

Ex-Leader of Maldives to Contest Elections – Former President of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, is to return to the country from exile to contest elections. This comes after the Supreme Court quashed his 2015 terrorism charges as being ‘politically motivated’. The Supreme Court’s decision saw opposition supporters take to the streets in celebration; two were arrested after clashes with police. The country became a democracy in 2008 but freedoms have been restricted since President Yameen took power in 2013. Yameen’s response is unclear at this time, though Maldives police have vowed to adhere to the ruling.

State of Emergency Declared in Ecuador – The Ecuadoran government declared a state of emergency in the cities of San Lorenzo and Eloy Alfaro following an improvised explosive device attack against a local police headquarters. There were no fatalities, but 14 officers were wounded, and the building was rendered unusable. Armed groups connected to drug cartels are believed to be responsible for the attack.

Nairobi Opposition Protests – Following a mock inauguration ceremony on 30 January for Raila Odinga, the primary opposition presidential candidate, his supporters have launched widespread protests in predominantly opposition-supporting areas of Kenya, Nairobi especially. A number of prominent opposition leaders have also been arrested by security forces in relation to the event, and three television networks have been taken off the air by the government for attempting to televise the inauguration, further aggravating protestors.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Winter Olympics to Begin – The 2018 Winter Olympics are scheduled to start in Pyeongchang, South Korea, on 09 February. While the presence of North Korea hangs over proceedings, it has athletes competing at the Games, making aggressive moves by Pyongyang unlikely. Travel disruption should be expected across South Korea.

Referendum in Ecuador – On 04 February, Ecuador will go to the polls to vote on a series of constitutional amendments, one of which reinstates term limits. This would make it impossible for the populist former President Rafael Correa to return to power. Correa has led the campaign against the proposed amendments which have been promoted by President Moreno, thought by many to be Correa’s handpicked successor. It was also believed Moreno would step aside when his term ended to allow Correa to return to power. Unrest is possible during the vote period.

Carnival – Carnival is celebrated across the world and marks a final major party before the Christian festival of Lent. Carnival is especially popular in the Americas. Crime rates spike in the lead up to, and during, Carnival festivities, particularly across Central and South America. The largest celebrations occur in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where the 2018 Carnival begins on 09 February and ends on 14 February, the day Lent begins.

Significant Dates & Events

03 February – Public transport strikes planned from Helsinki airport
03 February – Anti-corruption protests scheduled in Tel Aviv
04 February – American football Super Bowl in Minneapolis
04 February – Costa Rican legislative and presidential elections
04 February – Planned protests against Macedonia’s naming in Athens
04 February – Anniversary of 1992 failed coup by Hugo Chávez (unrest a potential in Venezuela)
05 February – Algerian paramedics to strike
05 February – Public hospital workers strike across Haiti
06-11 February – Major cycling event in Dubai
09 February – Portuguese airline crew scheduled to start industrial action

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 05 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 05 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 04 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

27 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding at Lagos Anchorage. Suspicious movement spotted on anchored vessel’s forecastle, and one person spotted hiding amongst the mooring winches. Crew were mustered and Navy patrol boat notified. No robbers found, and no stores reported missing. 24 Jan 18: Armed Guards Repelled Attack South of Brass. Embarked naval guards exchanged fire with attackers during an attempted attack against an underway tanker at 03°30’0 N 06°20’0 E. Crew and vessel reported safe. 24 Jan 18: Vessel Underway Attacked South of Brass. A bulk carrier underway at 03°39’0 N 06°37’2 E was approached by two speedboats containing up to three person each. Occupants of the speedboats opened fire on the carrier, which increased speed and undertook evasive action. Attackers moved away. Vessel and crew reported safe. 23 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding at Conakry Port Terminal. Two people were spotted attempting to climb the vessel’s stern line whilst along side at Conakry Port Terminal. Upon detection both swam away.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

24 Jan 18: Revised Security Guidance Issued. BIMCO, ICS, and Intertanko issued additional security guidance designed to complement BMP4 and mitigate against the additional threats posed by overspill from the Yemeni civil war.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

26 Jan 18: Pirate Group Active near Sabah. Local authorities reported that vessels known to belong to an established kidnap and piracy gang have been spotted in the Sulu Sea in vicinity of Sabah. Vessels are advised to maintain a strict anti-piracy watch and remain in compliance with BMP4. 20 Jan 18: Anchored vessel boarded in Samarinda Anchorage. Two robbers boarded a vessel at anchor in Samarinda anchorage undetected, and escaped with ship’s properties.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 04 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 04 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04

Headlines From This Week

World Economic Forum – The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, ends on 26 January. The event saw substantially less activist activity than was anticipated, with approximately 2,000 protesters demonstrating in Zurich. Approximately 20 protesters managed to breach the security cordon in the town of Davos itself, but they were dispersed peacefully by police.
Turkish Incursion into Syria – Turkish forces, supported by militants from the Free Syrian Army launched an operation to clear Kurdish militia groups from the northern Syrian area of Afrin. The Turkish military objectives appear to remain limited, the assault was likely intended to enhance Turkey’s negotiating position with the US and other coalition partners engaged in the region against Islamic State.
Major attacks in Jalalabad and Kabul – The Afghan branches of both the Taliban and Islamic State launched major attacks in Afghanistan. The Taliban conducted an explosives and small arms attack on the Kabul Intercontinental hotel on 20 January, which had recently handed its security measures to a private company. 42 people were killed, 17 of which were foreign nationals. The Islamic State attacked the Save the Children charity’s offices in Jalalabad on 24 January, resulting in two fatalities and leaving 12 wounded.
US Government Shutdown – The US Government experienced a three-day shut down between 20 and 22 January. This resulted in a cessation of all “non-essential” services, with government employees responsible for the provision of these services asked to stay home without pay. A political compromise in the Senate led to a short-term funding bill to end the shutdown, but a further shutdown is likely in February.
IED Attack in Benghazi – Two car bombs were detonated in a residential area of Benghazi on 23 January, the second blast was timed to target those who gathered to help victims of the first blast. A total of 33 people were killed, and 47 wounded. It is believed that the attack was carried out by a cell of Islamic State insurgents who remain in the city despite the organisation’s military defeat.
Tsunami Warnings Across the West Coast of North America – An earthquake of approximately magnitude 8.2 struck south of Kodiak Island in Alaska, resulting in the issuing of tsunami warnings throughout the eastern pacific, particularly the US and Canada’s western seaboards. No damage was reported as a result of the quake due to the distance from major inhabited areas; waves measuring approximately 0.3m were reported, however, but had no impact as they occurred well offshore.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Australian Tennis Open – Australia is scheduled to hold its 2018 tennis finals on 27 – 28 January. Australia has suffered occasional, lone wolf, terror attacks in recent years, including an as-yet unclassified attack on a police officer on 26 January 2018. Travellers should expect high levels of security around the venue in Melbourne.
Thaipusam Festival – The 2018 Thaipusam festival will be held in Malaysia on 31 January. Additional security measures should be expected around Hindu temple locations, and service provision is likely to be reduced due to business closures related to the holiday.
Cost of Living Protests in Khartoum – The opposition-planned protests due to be held in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, on 31 January are likely to result in significant disruption and possible violence. Sudanese security forces responded with force to small-scale, spontaneous, demonstrations over the month of January, and are likely to respond in a similar manner to more widespread incidents.

Significant Dates & Events

27 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
27 January – Opposition protests scheduled in Tirana, Albania
27 January – Anti-Trump marches planned in Washington DC
27-28 January – Extensive maintenance to disrupt Mumbai’s rail network
28 January – Finnish presidential elections
28 January – Cyprus presidential elections
28 January – Opposition protests scheduled in major cities throughout Russia
29 January – Italian high-speed rail workers to strike
30 January – Opposition and anti-corruption protests planned in Lima.
31 January – Anti-government protests in Khartoum, Sudan, due to increasing food costs
01 February – Air Do cancelled 26 flights from Japan due to a pilot shortage

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 04 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 043 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 03 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

10-16 Jan 18: Product Tanker Hijacked Beninr. A tanker was hijacked off Benin on 10 January. The crew and vessel were released and reported safe in Lagos following contact between vessel owner and pirates.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

20 Jan 18: 41 Somali Pirates Released. Indian authorities released 41 of 117 Somali pirates held in Indian jails. They were deported from Mumbai to Mogadishu, before being released to return home. There are no measure in place to monitor their actions after their release.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

19 Jan 18: Abu Sayyaf Released Fishermen. The Philippine insurgent group, Abu Sayyaf, released two Indonesian fishermen which had been held hostage since November 2016. The release was allegedly in response to negotiations between the Philippine and Indonesian governments and Abu Sayyaf. It is unclear what, if any, concessions were made. 17 Jan 18: ReCAAP Capacity Building Summit. The regional anti-piracy group held a summit in Singapore to address cooperation and capacity building among member nations. Senior naval or coastguard personnel from 17 nations were present. 17 Jan 18: Attempted Attack on Tug Boat in Malacca States. A tug boat operating in the Malacca Straits reported an attempted boarding by an unspecified number of robbers. Vessel and crew were reported safe.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 03 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 03 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03

Headlines From This Week

Winter Storms in Europe – At least nine people were killed after Storm Friederike hit western Europe. Hurricane level winds shut down transportation systems in parts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Adverse weather conditions were reported from the United Kingdom to as far away as Romania.
Assassination in Kosovo – Prominent Kosovo Serb Politician, Oliver Ivanović, was assassinated outside of his party’s headquarters on 16 January. This murder came on the same day that Belgrade and Pristina began talks on normalising ties after a break of more than a year. Ivanović was an opponent of the Belgrade-backed Serb party in Kosovo. His death may further complicate regional relations.
Significant Earthquake off Peru Coast – On 14 January 2018, a magnitude-7.1 earthquake struck off the coast of Peru. At least two people have been reported dead, with dozens more left injured or homeless with a state of emergency declared in the affected zones. Many have been left without power and roads have been damaged; international travel remains uninterrupted.
Volcanic Activity in Southeast Asia – Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia has shown continued activity, spewing volcanic ash 2,000 metres into the air on 15 January but has since settled. Activity at Mayon Volcano, Philippines has forced 38,000 people from their homes. Thousands have been evacuated from islands surrounding Kadovar, Papua New Guinea, as scientists suggest that a volcanic eruption could be imminent.
Twin Suicide Bombings in Maiduguri – A double suicide bombing at a market in the northern Nigerian city of Maiduguri killed at least 12 and injured 48 others on 17 January. One attacker was male and the other female. Boko Haram are the most likely culprits of this attack; the Islamic insurgency group has killed more than 20,000 people in its nine-year insurgency.
Clashes at Tripoli Airport – At least 20 people were killed after clashes at Tripoli Mitiga Airport, with another 63 injured. Fighting started on 15 January. The Special Deterrent Force, a militia which controls the airport, clashed with a rival militia led by local strongman Bashir al-Baqara; both militias are ostensibly allied with the UN-backed government. Reports suggest that al-Baqara was fighting to release his men held at a nearby prison. All flights were diverted to Misrata Airport, though operations have reportedly resumed at Mitiga.
Tensions in the Nile Region – Tensions continue to rise in the Nile region as Sudan sent more troops to its border with Eritrea, partly in reaction to the reported presence of Egyptian troops in Eritrea. Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia on one side, and Egypt and Eritrea on the other, have deteriorated recently, as all sides seek to maintain, or increase, control over precious natural resources.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Anti-Kabila Rally in the DRC – Catholics in the Democratic Republic of Congo called for a fresh rally against the continued premiership of President Kabila for 21 January. New Year’s Eve protests against Kabila’s rule led to the deaths of at least six people. Significant and violent unrest should be expected in Kinshasa especially.
‘Women’s March’ Rallies – The 2018 Women’s March, planned as a follow up to the 2017 march, is due to take place on 20-21 January 2017. The primary event will take place on 21 January 2018 in Las Vegas, United States, with other significant marches occurring in New York City and Washington DC. Marches of different sizes have been confirmed in at least 31 different countries/territories, including dozens of marches across the United States.
World Economic Forum – The annual World Economic Forum conference is due to take place in Davos, Switzerland between 23-26 January 2018. Many heads of states due to attend, including President Trump. Enhanced security measures and the unrest should be expected in the lead up to, and during, the event.

Significant Dates & Events

20 January – Anti-corruption protests due in Tel Aviv, Israel
21 January – Hong Kong Marathon
22 January – Inauguration of George Weah as Liberia’s new president
24 January – Unification Day, Romania
25-26 January – India-ASEAN Commemorative Summit, New Delhi, India
25-27 January – Opposition rallies planned in Honduras as the new president is sworn in
25-28 January – Winter X Games take place in Aspen, Colorado
25 January – Revolution Day, Egypt
26 January – Australia Day, Australia
26 January – Republic Day, India
26 January – Second Round of Czech presidential elections
26 January – National Resistance Movement (NRM) Liberation Day, Uganda

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 03 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 03 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 02 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

15 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding in Lagos Anchorage. A tanker anchored in location 06°18’05”N 03°23’61”E was conducting ship-to-ship operations when crew noticed robbers attempting to board the vessel. Search lights were directed at the boarders, and crew mustered. The robbers fled 13 Jan 18: Product Tanker Missing near Benin. A tanker has been reported missing with all 22 crew members. Last AIS reported location on 09 Jan at 06°11’51″N 02°28’11″E . 08 Jan 18: Attempted Cargo Theft near Lagos. A tanker at anchor in position 06°19’00”N 03°20’00”E reported two robbers boarded the vessel and attempted to install hoses to steal cargo. Both robbers jumped overboard when challenged.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

02 Jan 18: Suspicious Approach in Bab el Mandeb Strait. An MV in location 12°13’00”N 043°29’10”E was approached by two small vessels with five persons aboard each with their faces obscured. Approach was aborted at approximately 500m.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

08 Jan 18: Attempted boarding in Samarinda Anchorage. Duty personnel spotted a number of persons trying to climb a bulk carrier’s anchor chain from a small boat at 0°16’15”S, 117°43’01”E. The robbers fled as the foghorn was sounded.

Click link to Download PDF: 20180115 – Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 02 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 50 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02

Headlines From This Week

California Mudslide – At least 17 people were killed by mudslides on 09 January in Santa Barbara County, California. On 12 January, the search for survivors entered a fourth day; the number of missing could be as high as 43 according to local officials. A mandatory evacuation zone has been put in place.
Protests Against Ex-President’s Pardon – Protests have continued this week in Peru after the decision to pardon ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was convicted of human rights’ abuses and corruption. Protestors have also called for the resignation of incumbent President Kuczynski who granted the pardon; Kuczynski has been accused of granting the pardon in return for support against an impeachment vote.
Deadly Protests in Tunisia – Protests against the government’s 2018 budget bill have turned violent this week. The government has reported that 21 people have died but some rights groups suggest that the real number could be more than double this. Security forces have so far reported 778 arrests. Further protests are expected, partly in response to the government’s reaction to the protests.
ELN-Government Talks Breakdown – This week marked the end of negotiations between the guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the government. The move comes after the rebel group conducted a series of attacks immediately after the ceasefire between the two entities expired on 10 January.
‘Bread Protests’ in Sudan – Reports suggest that at least three people have been killed in ‘bread protests’ in Sudan. Protests occurred after the government decided to cut subsidies, which led to price rises. Protests have been ongoing since 07 January and look set to continue.
East China Sea Maritime Incident – An Iranian-owned oil vessel has been ablaze since 06 January after it collided with another vessel in the East China Sea. It has since drifted into Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The vessel was en route to South Korea with almost one million barrels of oil aboard. One body, believed to have been one of the vessel’s crew has been recovered; the other 32 sailors remain missing.
Iran Sanctions – President Trump looks set to renew the Iran nuclear deal according to officials in Washington DC. However, his administration is expected to add economic sanctions on Iranian businesses and individuals for support of terrorist groups across the Middle East and other misconduct. The United States’ European partners had been keen to see the deal continue, causing some cross-Atlantic friction since President Trump took office.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Pope Francis to Visit South America – Heightened security and travel disruptions are expected during Peru’s papal visit between 18 and 21 January. Pope Francis is due to visit Lima, Puerto Maldonado, and Trujillo. Before Peru, Francis is set to visit Chile, with Santiago, Temuco, and Iquique the primary locations of his visit.
Australian Tennis Open Begins – The first of four ‘Grand Slams’, the Australian tennis open is due to take place between 15 and 28 January. The event takes place in Melbourne Park, Melbourne. Enhanced security measures and travel delays should be expected in the area. Protests are also possible given that one stadium which is hosting matches is named after Margaret Court who has been criticised for having homophobic views.
2018 Women’s March – An anniversary event for the 2017 Women’s march is set to take place on 20 January. The primary event is set to take place in Las Vegas in the United States, with sister marches occurring in Europe, South America, Asia, and Australasia. While disruption is likely, protests are not expected to turn violent.

Significant Dates & Events

13 January – Separatist groups plan strikes in Jammu and Kashmir
13 January – Airport workers are to rally in Nadi, Fiji
14 January – Hindu festival of Makar Sankranti
14 January – Christian Orthodox New Year
14 January – Revolution and Youth Day, Tunisia
14 January – Day of Defenders of the Motherland, Uzbekistan
14 January – Tamil Thai Pongal Day, Sri Lanka
15 January – Martin Luther King Day in the United States
15 January – John Chilembwe Day, Malawi
16-17 January – Heroes’ Day in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 02 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 02 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Week 01 – Maritime Security Weekly Snapshot

Gulf of Guinea – Maritime Security Incidents

01 Jan 18: Robbery in Apapa, Lagos. A Tanker awaiting cargo operations was boarded by four men whilst berthed. The robbers escaped with two jerrycans of grease when the alarm was raised. The shore watchman was found to have abandoned his post. All crew were reported safe.

Indian Ocean – Maritime Security Incidents

07 Jan 18: Saudi Led Coalition Sank Houthi Vessel. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Saudi-led coalition may have sunk a Yemeni patrol boat operated by Houthi rebels near the Yemeni port of Al Hudaydah. 06 Jan 18: Three Suspicious Approaches reported in the Red Sea. Three merchant vessels reported suspicious approaches by three grey, rigid-hulled boats, carrying weapons and at least six persons on board. Suspicious vessels approached to within 200m before changing course. All vessels reported safe.

South East Asia – Maritime Security Incidents

06 Jan 18: Tanker Collision in East China Sea. An oil condensate carrier collided with a grain carrier off of the Yangtze Delta. The tanker remains on fire, with a significant risk of explosion, and the state of the 32 crew is unknown. 21 crew members were rescued from the grain carrier. Multinational efforts to resolve the situation are ongoing. 05 Jan 18: Attempted Boarding of Bulk Carrier near Port Dickson. The crew of a bulk carrier noticed a small speedboat with five persons onboard attempting to fix a hook to the vessel at 02°27’04”N, 101°39’11”E. Vessel crew mustered with firehoses and the suspicious boat moved away. 03 Jan 18: Japanese Coast Guard Enhance Missile Warning System. In response to the increased threat of North Korean ballistic missile tests, the Japanese Coast Guard has implemented a partially automated alarm system in order to speed up the process of warning vessels in Japanese waters. Previous missile tests have landed in the Japanese exclusive economic zone. 03 Jan 18: Attempted boarding in Samarinda Anchorage. Duty personnel spotted five persons trying to climb a bulk carrier’s anchor chain from a small boat at0°16’22”S, 117°36’11”E. The robbers fled as the alarm was raised.

Click link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 01 A roundup of maritime security incidents – an easy to read format collating suspicious approaches, vessel attacks, boardings, hijacks and media reports. The week 50 Maritime Security Snapshot was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01

Headlines From The Week

Positive Moves on the Korean Peninsula – In a surprising move, President Kim stated his intention to consider opening dialogue with South Korea to cover North Korea’s involvement in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics which begin in February 2018. North Korea’s involvement in the Games is likely to decrease the possibility of military tests or an attack during the event. Planned US-South Korea military drills which were due to take place during the Games have been postponed; Pyongyang views these annual drills as provocation.
Unrest in the DRC – An estimated 12 people were killed in renewed protests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Dozens more were injured and more than 120 arrested in widespread anti-government protests, as demonstrators called on President Kabila to step down and respect a 2016 political agreement in which he had pledged to allow for new elections before the end of that year.
Storm Grayson Strikes the USA – Storm Grayson has caused hazardous travel conditions along the eastern seaboard of the United States. The storm has brought strong winds, heavy snowfall, and freezing conditions. At least 12 deaths have been attributed to the cold, more than 2,700 flights have been cancelled, and tens of thousands have been left without power. States of emergency have been issued in certain locations.
Iranian Protests Continue – Violent protests have continued throughout Iran, with unrest reported in more than 70 cities. More than 20 people have said to have been killed, though security forces have been relatively calm in their response, compared to previous cases of unrest, refraining from widespread aggression.
Brazil Prison Break – At least 77 inmates escaped from a jail in the central state of Goias in Brazil on 01 January. The breakout occurred after a riot in the jail between two rival criminal gangs; nine prisoners were killed and 14 injured. Brazil’s jails are notoriously overcrowded with violence an endemic issue.
Kabul Terror Attack – At least 20 people were killed and 30 more were killed in a terror attack in the Afghan capital of Kabul on 04 January. Authorities have reported that a suicide bomber targeted police officers who were handling a protest. The Afghan affiliate of Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks.
US Security Aid to Pakistan Cut – The US government announced plans to cut almost all of its security aid to Pakistan, claiming that it has failed to deal with terror groups operating within its borders, despite Pakistan being a key regional ally. The move has been praised by India and Afghanistan; though China, which has invested heavily in Pakistan, has come to its defence.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Orthodox Christmas and the Epiphany – Orthodox Christians are to celebrate their Christmas on the 06-07 January. This may cause some disruptions in Orthodox countries, notably in Eastern Europe. Other Christians around the world also celebrate the Epiphany religious holiday on the same dates, this is likely to cause limited disruption.
North-South Korea Talks – The first of high-level talks between Pyongyang and Seoul since December 2015 are set to take place at the ‘truce village’ of Panmunjom on 09 January. These talks, proposed by Seoul after President Kim’s new year message, are set to cover the potential for North Korea’s involvement in the upcoming Winter Olympics, to be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea in February. The participation of North Korea is set to improve the security of the Games. It is also hoped that other issues can be discussed during this meeting. It is unclear, at present, why President Kim offered this olive branch in his New Year’s Day message.

Significant Dates & Events

06 January – Pro-Kurdish march to take place in Paris.
06 January – Anti-Corruption march to take place in Tel Aviv.
07 January – Northern Cyprus elections.
07 January – Victory over Genocide Day (Cambodia).
08,10,12 January – South Western Railway (UK) walkouts.
09 January – Martyrs Day (Panama).
11 January – Proclamation of Independence Day.
11 January – Air France Pilots threaten walkout.
12 January – Zanzibar Revolution Day
12-13 January – Czech Republic Presidential Elections.
12-15 January – Hungarian Civil Service plan to strike.
12 January – Norway’s FlyViking airline to cease operations.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 01 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 01 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

January 2018 – Monthly Election Guide

Click link to Download PDF: Monthly Election Guide – January 2018 The Solace Global Election Guide is issued monthly in order to highlight the planned elections over the coming year and the threat of unrest or disruption in relation these events. The January 2018 Monthly Election Guide was produced by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.

Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52

Headlines From This Week

Coptic Church Attacked in Egypt – Gunmen opened fire on a Coptic church in Helwan, south of Cairo on 29 December. Preliminary reporting suggested that ten worshippers were killed before police shot and killed the attackers.
Explosion in Saint Petersburg – An explosive device was detonated in a Perekrestok supermarket in central Saint Petersburg on 27 December. At least 13 people were wounded in the explosion which the Russian authorities are treating as a terrorist incident. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Liberian Election Results Announced – George Weah was announced as the winner of the Liberian presidential election following a delayed and protracted vote-counting process. Provided his inauguration in January occurs as planned, it will mark Liberia’s first democratic and peaceful transfer of power.
41 Killed in Kabul Suicide Bombing – The Islamic State’s Afghan off-shoot claimed responsibility for a suicide attack at a Shi’ite event in western Kabul. The attack resulted in at least 41 killed, and over 80 wounded, the majority of which were civilians. Two other explosions followed the attack in an apparent effort to target emergency responders and those fleeing the first blast.
Venezuelan Diplomatic Crisis – The Venezuelan ambassador to Brazil was declared persona non-grata by Brazil following Venezuela’s expulsion of Brazil’s ambassador over the Christmas weekend. The Canadian ambassador was also expelled from Venezuela due to Canada’s imposition of sanctions. Canada is likely to reciprocate and expel the Venezuelan mission.
Iran Protests – Several hundred protesters demonstrated in Mashhad against high prices and the government’s foreign policies. At least 52 people were detained by police, who deployed teargas and water cannons against the crowds. Clerical officials have called for harsh treatment of those arrested.
South Korea Seized an Alleged North Korean Smuggling Vessel – The South Korean authorities seized a Hong Kong flagged tanker which had illegally conducted ship-to-ship transfers of oil to North Korean tankers in defiance of international sanctions. The vessel’s owner remains unclear, however senior members of the United States’ administration have accused China of assisting North Korea in circumventing the sanctions.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Gregorian New Year – New Year’s celebrations are planned across the world for 31 December to 01 January. Many nations have national holidays over these dates and travellers should expect reduced provision of services across most industries, in addition to disruption due to festive events. Travellers should remain aware that New Year’s celebrations have previously been targeted by terror groups seeking mass casualties, as well as criminal groups focused on robbery or sexual assaults. Major cities, including London, New York, Istanbul, and Berlin have implemented substantially heightened security measures.
Continued Protests in Lima – Civil unrest in Peru’s capital, Lima, is highly likely to continue following the pardoning of a former president who was jailed for corrupt practices whilst in office. The current president, Pedro Kuczynski, recently avoided impeachment due to corruption charges. His use of the pardon in this instance reignited substantial public anger.

Significant Dates & Events

31 December – New Year’s Eve
31 December – Workers to stage 24 hour strike on London’s Docklands Light Railway and Southwest Rail
01 January – New Year’s Day
01 January – Cuba celebrates Liberation Day
01 January – Haiti celebrates Independence Day
01 January – Sudan celebrates Independence Day
04 January – Railway staff to strike in Eindhoven.

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 52 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 52 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.