Week 36: 30 Aug – 06 Sept
Executive Summary
- It is likely that protests against the controversial judicial reform bill will intensify in Mexico, with the bill highly likely to pass in the Senate.
- The first state win for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is likely to result in civil unrest in German urban centres.
- The new Hamas hostage policy in Gaza is highly likely to drive further protests and calls for a ceasefire.
- It is highly likely that violent clashes will occur during the scheduled 8 September demonstration in Islamabad, Pakistan.
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AMER
Haiti: Government expands state of emergency to cover
entire country
Mexico: Judicial reform bill passed by lower house,
despite escalating unrest
Colombia: Widespread trucker protests after diesel price rises
EMEA
Germany: AfD win state elections
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: Hamas announces new hostage policy
Libya: Rival governments jointly agree to appoint new central bank governor
Nigeria: Suspected Boko Haram attack kills over 100 in northeast
APAC
Pakistan: Senate passes public order bill ahead of planned protest
Bangladesh: Garment factory protests lead to violent clashes
China, Philippines and Vietnam: Super Typhoon Yagi makes landfall in Hainan, China
North, Central and South America
Haiti
Haiti expands state of emergency to cover entire country.
On 5 September, the Haitian government announced that it was expanding the current state of emergency to cover the entire country. Haiti’s Ouest department, home to the capital Port-au-Prince, was placed under a state of emergency on March 3 under former Prime Minister Ariel Henry due to escalating violence and mass prison escapes.
The emergency was extended to other areas, including Artibonite, Centre, and Nippes, which have also experienced severe violence. The announcement also follows widespread protests after the suspension of services at Haiti’s largest hydroelectric dam which has left huge swathes of the country without power.
Solace Global Assessment: Haiti’s expansion of the state of emergency has likely been timed to coincide with the arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Blinken is set to conduct a diplomatic visit to Haiti on 5-6 September where he will meet with Prime Minister Garry Conille to discuss Haiti’s democratic transition. Conille has only been in power for three months and despite the recent deployment of a UN-backed Kenyan security mission, authorities have failed to make much progress in combating the criminal gangs that now control an estimated 80 per cent of the country.
The expansion of the state of emergency is likely aimed at attracting more foreign aid and assistance, with the US currently being the largest contributor. The Kenyan force, which was deployed in June, only consists of 400 police officers, and their effectiveness has been curtailed by salary payment issues. Moreover, the domestic security services are almost certainly underfunded, and overstretched and have been limited to only a few minor operations, with the gangs often outnumbering and outgunning the police.
Conille’s strategy is likely intended to convince Blinken to both increase US contributions but also to secure additional support from the international community. However, foreign assistance will likely be partially dependent on steps towards democratic transition, a process that currently appears unachievable with the gangs exerting so much influence across the country.
Mexico
Judicial reform bill passed by lower house, despite escalating unrest.
On 3 September, protests led by striking judiciary workers took place outside the Mexican Supreme Court and Congress against the controversial judicial reform bill. The demonstrations blocked access to the Congress building, leading to lawmakers instead gathering in a gymnasium to start the voting proceedings. The Supreme Court additionally released a statement on 3 September that they would be joining the strike, following an 8-3 vote. Despite the protests, the bill was passed on 4 September by the lower house and will now go to the Senate.
Solace Global Assessment: The bill’s most controversial measures involve the direct election of approximately 7,000 judges, magistrates and Supreme Court justices, along with the removal and lowering of several requirements. Critics warn that the bill will politicise the judiciary, lessen the strength of checks and balances against the ruling Morena party, and enable organised crime to exert greater influence over the Mexican judicial system.
The Morena party is only one seat short of the required supermajority in the Senate, and it is highly likely that the bill will pass. President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s swearing-in ceremony will take place on 1 October, and she has indicated that the reform package will be one of the first priorities for her administration.
The indefinite nationwide strike by judiciary workers began on 19 August, and demonstrations have taken place in several cities across Mexico. The decision by the Supreme Court to join the strike is highly likely to lend further legitimacy to the protests, which are unlikely to subside in the coming weeks.
While the unrest has been generally peaceful thus far, the blocking of roads and access to Mexico’s congress is an escalation in the tactics employed by the demonstrators, likely indicative of increasing desperation to stop the bill. It is likely that as the legislation further progresses towards being signed into law, unrest will intensify.
Colombia
Trucker protests paralyse Colombia’s transport network.
Widespread trucker protests have erupted across Colombia following the government’s decision to increase diesel prices. On 31 August, the government raised the price of diesel by 1,904 Colombian pesos or 45 US cents per gallon. In protest, truckers have cut off many of Colombia’s largest cities by staging roadblocks on the nation’s major highways. On 4 September, Colombia’s ombudsman stated that there were at least 127 demonstrations being held across 13 regions, with 42 of them consisting of total road blockades.
Solace Global Assessment: The almost 21 per cent increase in diesel prices by the government has been claimed as fair and justified on the grounds that the country has long subsidised prices. Prices have been held for four years at just over 9,000 pesos but the government has stated that this was fiscally unsustainable and was costing it over one trillion pesos a month.
However, truckers have argued that the immediate and high price increase is set to push their businesses to bankruptcy. Truckers have also likely been frustrated by the removal of subsidies as it has coincided with a huge increase in government spending elsewhere by Colombia’s leftist President Gustavo Petro.
Trucker protests have led to major supply chain issues, reducing the amount of food arriving at wholesale markets. If sustained, the trucker protests are likely to result in price increases and could spark unrest within major cities like Bogota, Medellin and Cali. Colombia’s largest state-owned oil and gas company, Ecopetrol, has also warned that the protests will affect the production of hydrocarbons and fuel supplies across the country.
This trend has been exacerbated by a spate of attacks on Colombia’s pipeline infrastructure in areas held by the National Liberation Army or ELN, following the end of a fragile ceasefire agreement.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Pro-Palestine protests likely to resume on US campuses.
Classes in multiple US colleges that were the epicentres of pro-Palestine protests, including Columbia University, began during this reporting period. It is highly likely that pro-Palestine groups will resume protests from the 6-8 September weekend, and that these will include attempts to start campus “encampments” and, more likely, disrupt local roadways and public transport.
First US presidential debate scheduled for 10 September.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are set to participate in their first debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on 10 September. Given the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the degree of political division in the US, the debates will almost certainly involve heightened security measures and will likely attract large demonstrations in support of a range of issues, most likely the conflict in the Middle East.
Venezuela issues arrest warrant for opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez.
Gonzalez and co-leader of the opposition Maria Corina Machado are currently believed to be in hiding in Venezuela, while other prominent opposition members have either escaped or sought refuge in diplomatic offices in the country. The arrest order is almost certainly meant to reinforce the government’s legitimacy, and may be a prelude to more violent suppression of remaining opposition groups and individuals associated with Gonzalez. Moreover, there is a realistic possibility that authorities are aiming to provoke the expatriation of Gonzalez and Machado, likely aiming to link their positions with foreign adversaries of the Maduro regime, while also reducing their ability to coordinate domestic protests at a later date.
US sailor detained by Venezuelan authorities.
According to Pentagon officials, a US Navy sailor was detained in Caracas on 30 August and is currently being held by the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN). The detained US service member was reportedly not on approved leave or official travel, and his purpose in-country is currently unknown. On 2 September, the US Justice Department seized a plane belonging to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which will likely impede the sailor’s release. It is a realistic possibility that the detention is a result of Venezuelan hostage diplomacy. It is additionally, however, a realistic possibility that the detention relates to concerns from Venezuelan authorities regarding subversive anti-regime actions from US nationals, heightened since the failed 2020 coup plot Operation Gideon that was led by an ex-US service member.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Loggers killed by indigenous group in Peruvian Amazon.
On September 3, two loggers were killed and two others are missing after a clash with the Mashco Piro, an isolated indigenous community in Peru’s Amazon. The conflict occurred in the Madre de Dios region where loggers have been clearing a trail. Confrontations between loggers and indigenous tribes are like to increase as the logging, both legal and illegal, of the Amazon increases. The Peruvian government is investigating the incident, under pressure from local rights groups who claim that the government is failing to recognise indigenous territory.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Continued row between Brazilian judiciary and Elon Musk.
The judiciary of Brazil ordered the owner of X.com, Elon Musk, to uphold the country’s ban on the social network, which followed the platform’s refusal to comply with court orders regarding the removal of profiles spreading disinformation. Musk initially refused to comply with the latest order and has increasingly accused the Brazilian government of ideologically motivated censorship. Musk’s involvement in Brazilian politics has been praised by supporters of former President Bolsonaro, who have called for protests against the Supreme Court on 7 September.
Haiti’s main hydro-electric plant ceases to operate.
On 3 September, Haiti’s state-owned power company, Electricité d’Haiti (EDH), reported that output from the Peligre hydroelectric plant had ceased due to protests over power distribution, with protestors demanding that energy be redistributed beyond the capital, Port-au-Prince. The plant, which provides most of Haiti’s hydroelectric power, has been offline since 2 September, worsened by damage to two transformers and disrupted access due to gang control. Only 49 per cent of Haitians reportedly now have grid access, with the energy blackout likely to further exacerbate many of the country’s current issues, including crime, displacement and the humanitarian situation.
August worst month in two decades for Brazilian wildfires.
Satellite-derived data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) has indicated that August was the worst month for wildfires in the country since 2010. The 38,266 fire hotspots identified in the Amazon in August were nearly twice the amount observed in the previous month. Warmer temperatures and drier vegetation have provided conditions conducive to the spread of wildfires, many of which are started deliberately to clear land for cattle pastures. Multiple investigations are currently underway looking into possible criminal involvement in the starting of wildfires. Furthermore, deforestation has decreased the rainforest’s long-term ability to maintain moisture, suggesting that future wildfires will increase in scale and frequency.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Germany
Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins first state parliamentary election in Thuringia.
In addition to winning 32.8 per cent of the votes cast in the central German state, the party also received the second most votes in Saxony, 31 per cent. The results represent the first time that a far-right party has won an election in Germany since the Second World War.
Solace Global Assessment: The AfD is unlikely to enter the state’s government, as the remaining parties are likely to adopt a strategy of alliances similar to that used by their French counterparts to prevent Le Pen’s National Rally from obtaining power. Still, the result is notable as it is the first time that the AfD has won a state election and is likely to have a significant impact on German politics.
Compared to other European far-right parties – for instance, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which have moderated some of their positions in order to court moderate right votes – the AfD’s continued rise has not coincided with a notable change in its proposed policies. In Thuringia itself, the party is led by Björn Höcke, who was found guilty by German courts for using Nazi rhetoric twice. It is likely that the AfD’s victory will prompt civil unrest in Thuringia, Saxony, and in large urban centres in Germany.
There is a realistic possibility that increasing popular support for the AfD will be seized by far-right and identitarian groups to carry out demonstrations and symbolic disruptive action. Finally, the positive performance (15.8 per cent of the vote in Thuringia and 11.8 per cent in Saxony) of the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance party (BSW) is also notable. BSW was founded in January 2024 after breaking away from The Left party, and it represents a left-wing populist, socially conservative and nationalist formation that rejects Berlin’s support for Ukraine and the environmentalist policies of the rest of the left.
On 22 September, elections are scheduled for Brandenburg. Polls predict an AfD win (with more than 24 per cent of the vote) and show a realistic chance for BSW to come third or fourth. Another AfD victory, and continued BSW growth, are likely to seriously damage the current governing coalition’s perceived legitimacy. They may, furthermore, create questions about the viability of the SPD-CDU coalition.
Finally, it is important to note that there has been a rise in lone-wolf Islamist attacks in Germany, and media associated with groups like the Islamic State (IS) have called for further attacks following the Mannheim stabbing in late May. It is possible that the AfD victory, even if not directly resulting in the passing of new policies in the short term, will drive a rise in extremist activity in Germany.
Israel, Gaza and the West Bank
Largest West Bank operation of the war ends, Hamas shares new hostage policy.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) declared, on 6 September, that their almost two-weeks-long raids in Jenin, Tulkarem and Tubas have ended. The large-scale operation, which has resulted in at least 33 deaths and 140 injuries, including the head of Hamas in Jenin, was described by Israeli authorities as a response to a growing number of attacks on Israeli settlers and citizens in the West Bank and Israeli territory. In Gaza, Hamas announced a new policy of killing Israeli captives if IDF forces approach areas where they are being held, following the recovery of six hostages’ bodies who had reportedly been shot by their guards, The policy reportedly dates back to June. The reports on the deaths of the six hostages prompted further protests in Israel calling for the Netanyahu administration to reach a ceasefire deal. Protests in Israel were particularly severe in Tel Aviv, with at least 550,000 demonstrators gathering in the city.
Solace Global Assessment: The question of the control over the Philadelphi corridor likely remains the main obstacle in the way of a ceasefire deal. On 4 September, Israeli officials stated that IDF positions at the border with Egypt would be assessed at the war’s end. For Tel Aviv, maintaining control of the Philadelphi corridor is crucial to depriving Hamas of lethal aid and degrading its capabilities. Hamas leaders are likewise highly likely aware of the general degradation of their fighting strength, and of the skills of the fighters that they are able to recruit from the Palestinian population – whose survivability rate has decreased in recent months.
The new hostage policy – which was notably only announced months after its first apparent implementation, likely reflects Hamas’ growing concern over its ability to hold and transfer hostages whilst under pressure from IDF operations. The tactic may also be indicative of a new strategy aimed at undermining Israeli resolve and applying pressure on the Netanyahu administration.
The executions will almost certainly fuel further unrest in Israel and could put pressure on Tel Aviv to accept ceasefire demands that are more favourable to Hamas. However, the often indiscriminate nature of the Israeli campaign to date would suggest that it is unlikely to cause a major shift in Netanyahu’s demands. Moreover, the hostages are Hamas’ main source of leverage. Executing them en masse would diminish this leverage and reaffirm Netanyahu’s stance that Hamas needs to be completely destroyed as a military and political force.
Libya
Rival Libyan legislatures jointly agree to appoint new central bank governor.
On 3 September, Libya’s two rival legislative bodies jointly signed a statement agreeing to appoint a central bank governor within 30 days. Previously, on 18 August, long-term governor Sadiq al-Kabir was unilaterally dismissed by the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU), which increased tensions In Libya. The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) is responsible for holding Libya’s oil revenues, with Libya’s oil reserves being the largest in Africa. The crisis at the CBL has had a wide-ranging impact on Libya’s economy, hampering the payment of state salaries and ordinary transactions.
Assessment: The agreement is likely to reduce tensions in Libya, which have in recent weeks been at their highest since the 2020 ceasefire between the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA, now the GNU) and the Benghazi-based Libyan National Army (LNA).
The LNA has been highly likely instrumentalising the flow of oil, causing shutdowns and reduced operations at several oil fields including Libya’s largest, the Shahara oil field. Mass LNA troop mobilisations in the west and southwest of the country, particularly in the vicinity of the strategically significant Ghadames Airport, have caused great concern that Libya is on the verge of renewed civil war.
While the agreement to resolve the crisis at the CBL will likely lessen tensions in the short term, and will likely alleviate the threat of economic crisis, it still remains a realistic possibility that renewed conflict could break out in Libya between the rival governments.
Nigeria
Over 100 killed in Islamist attack in northeast Nigeria.
On 1 September, approximately 150 armed militants suspected of belonging to the Islamist group Boko Haram conducted an attack on the village of Mafa, Yobe State in northeast Nigeria. The militants arrived on motorcycles armed with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades and then began to indiscriminately attack locals and set fire to multiple homes and businesses. Original estimates put the death toll at just under 40; however, most revisions have now placed the death toll at over 100.
Solace Global Assessment: The attack took place in northeast Nigeria, where an Islamist insurgency primarily led by Boko Haram has lasted for 15 years and has taken the lives of approximately 40,000 people. It is almost certain that Boko Haram operates within this area with a high degree of freedom and is likely exploiting the increased destabilisation of the wider Sahel region to conduct increased cross-border operations. This attack closely resembles the recent Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) attack in Burkina Faso which killed as many as 500 people. Boko Haram has traditionally employed a range of tactics, including suicide bombings, mass kidnappings and raids or armed assaults.
However, there is a realistic possibility that the success of JNIM’s attack, the overstretching of Nigerian security services and the growing strength of Boko Haram have inspired it to transition towards more hit-and-run raids using motorcycles. These attacks enable Boko Haram to attack isolated villages and then swiftly withdraw before the military can be deployed to the area.
Additionally, by targeting small villages, Boko Haram may force military commanders to spread their resources thinly, making it challenging to allocate sufficient support to defend future potential targets. Of note, unconfirmed reports indicate that militants left the area and rigged the roads leading to it with improvised explosive devices (IEDs), highly likely in an effort to delay the arrival of the armed forces. The scale and sophistication of the attack likely indicate a growth in Boko Haram’s organisational and logistical capacity, which have likely been facilitated by the group’s alliances with regional bandits and ability to exploit safe havens in border areas.
These attacks are likely to continue and will undermine the government’s authority and its ability to provide security, a development that is likely to lead to civil unrest against the government in Nigeria’s north- a trend that has been witnessed throughout the region.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier appointed new French Prime Minister.
Barnier is a representative of the Gaullist right adjacent to the Republicans (LR). His appointment ends a two-month-long period of uncertainty that followed the National Assembly elections. The move is likely to be followed by concessions to the right, particularly Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), which will be crucial to surviving a no-confidence vote. Barnier’s appointment is almost certainly going to be received extremely negatively by the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), which had suggested Lucie Castets as a potential prime minister. The NFP was seemingly moving towards collapse due to tensions between its two main members, the Socialists (PS) and the populist France Unbowed (LFI). However, with Macron turning to the right rather than the PS, the left is likely to call for large-scale anti-Macron demonstrations in the coming weeks. As numerous far-left groups threatened violent action if LFI was kept from governing, there is a high likelihood of sabotage.
Pro-Palestine protests likely to increase in intensity in Western Europe.
It is likely that pro-Palestine protests will increase in intensity in September in European countries that have had major protest movements, especially in large urban centres. This is due to multiple factors: the beginning of the academic year, the overlap with multiple Palestine-related anniversaries (i.e. Black September, Oslo Accords), and the approaching one-year anniversary of the 7 October attack.
Volkswagen (VW) cost-cutting plans are likely to provoke civil unrest in Germany.
Senior representatives of the automotive industry giant, which employs about half of its 600,000 workers in Germany, have announced that they are considering cutting production in Germany to relocate plants to other more competitive markets, where labour costs are lower. The announcement is likely to translate into concrete policies, as VW has recently had a decline in profits and competitiveness, especially in the growing electric vehicle market. There is a high likelihood that further pressures will result in labour union reactions, including strikes and protests, in areas that host VW plants.
Major transport strikes organised across Italy.
A series of public transport and air travel strikes have been organised across Italy and are set to begin on 7 September. Strikes over worker conditions for ground operations workers, air traffic controllers and baggage handlers are set to cause major disruptions at Rome’s Fiumicino and Olbia, Milan Malpensa, Florence Amerigo Vespucci and Pisa Galileo Galilei airports. A nationwide rail strike organised for 9 September will be closely followed by a nationwide public transport workers’ walkout will almost certainly cause major disruption on Italy’s train, bus, tram and underground services.
Kosovo closes institutions that serve Serb minority.
On 31 August, Kosovar authorities closed five institutions in the north that served the ethnic Serb minority, a move that escalated tensions with Serbia. Kosovo’s local administration minister, Elbert Krasniqi, stated that these institutions violated Kosovo’s constitution and laws. US officials expressed worries that the move could destabilise the region, a concern that has likely been amplified by Russia’s recent attempts to sow division in the area, including treating Bosnia’s breakaway Republika Srpska as a recognised state. The head of Mitrovica Citizens’ Association, a Kosovar Serb group, has announced the blockade of all administrative border crossings with Serbia in North Kosovo in response to Kosovo’s actions.
Two US marines attacked by mob in Turkey.
Ten individuals were arrested for attacking two US marines in the centre of Izmir. The perpetrators were reportedly part of a nationalist and left-Kemalist (the ideology based on the ideas of Turkish 20th century leader Ataturk) group known as the Youth Union of Turkey. The arrests have been challenged by the group, and there is a realistic possibility of retaliatory protests by the Youth Union in Izmir and other cities where it has a strong presence, including Istanbul. The actions may also lead to similar attacks on US personnel within Turkey.
Algerian President Tebboune likely to win re-election on 7 September.
The vote, which has been protested by the opposition for being rescheduled to September rather than the customary date in December, is likely to be affected by low voter turnout and government interference. Tebboune’s highly likely re-election could result in protests in Algiers and other cities, albeit these are unlikely to reach the severity of the 2019 protests.
Senegal likely to look to the West for counterterrorism operations.
The newly elected government of Senegal, which has espoused an overall anti-West rhetoric and has previously made diplomatic gestures in favour of the neighbouring Sahel junta states, asked for more international cooperation to tackle local jihadist groups during a visit by Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez. It is highly likely that the move is a response to the failure of the junta states’ counterterrorism operations, which are becoming increasingly reliant on Russian help which has yet to curtail the rate of extremist attacks. The Islamist groups operating in the Sahel likely aim to reach the comparatively richer coastal West African states, as part of growing ambitions to develop territorial entities.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Islamist lone wolf attack in Munich.
The attack occurred on 5 September, near the Israeli consulate and a Holocaust Museum. The attacker almost certainly carried out the attack to coincide with the 52nd anniversary of the 1972 Munich Olympic massacre, where members of the Palestinian organisation Black September took hostages and killed 11 Israeli athletes. The Munich attacker was killed by police, and no other casualties were recorded. The attack is notable due to the use of a long-barrel rifle by the perpetrator as, in Europe, most lone-wolf attacks involve bladed weapons. According to police reports, the attacker was a self-radicalised 18-year-old supporter of the Islamic State (IS). In 2023, he had reportedly already been investigated by authorities for terrorism-related offences. The attack continues the trend of notably young lone wolves, likely underscoring the growing effect of online self-radicalisation.
Houthis reportedly attack two oil tankers in the Red Sea, including Saudi flagged vessel.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that the Houthis struck the Panama flagged MV BLUE LAGOON I and the Saudi flagged MV AMJAD on 2 September with two anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) and one one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV). Neither vessel was seriously damaged. The Houthis and Saudi Arabia, after being engaged in a seven-year conflict between 2015-2022, are participating in ongoing peace negotiations and have generally abided by a cessation of fighting since 2022. Both vessels were sailing in close proximity to each other, and it is likely that the Houthis accidentally struck the MV AMJAD. The AMJAD’s owner, Saudi shipping firm Bahri, “unequivocally affirm[ed] that AMJAD was not targeted”, and the Houthis omitted any mention of the AMJAD in their claim of responsibility. This highly likely indicates that both parties are keen to avoid jeopardising peace negotiations.
Prison break in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) results in more than 100 deaths.
The escape started after a riot broke out in the Makala prison of Kinshasa. Authorities responded violently and the resulting clashes killed at least 129 and injured 59. DRC prisons are highly overcrowded, and the government has recently sought to release some inmates convicted of low-level offences to alleviate the pressure. There is a realistic possibility that the combination of overcrowding and insufficient police resources will provoke further riots and prison break attempts.
Uganda opposition leader Bobi Wine shot by police.
Bobi Wine was initially elected as an independent but joined the opposition National Unity Platform party prior to the 2021 presidential election. In early 2024, he announced that he would again run in 2026, challenging Yoweri Museveni, the president of Uganda since 1986. The autocratic government of Uganda is characterised by a strong symbiotic relationship between government, the judiciary, and security forces, and there is a high likelihood that the shooting was a deliberate attempt on the opposition leader’s life. Due to Bobi Wine’s domestic and international popularity, it is likely that the case will spark significant unrest.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
At least one tourist dead following flash floods in Mallorca, Spain.
The individual died while hiking in the area of the Torrent de Pareis, in the Tramuntana mountain range. Approximately ten other people were also trapped by the floods before being rescued. On 2-3 September, extreme weather, with severe showers and localised flash flooding, affected various coastal areas throughout the Mediterranean, including parts of Greece, central Italy and eastern Spain.
Asia–Pacific
Pakistan
Protest bill approved ahead of planned demonstration by main opposition party.
On 5 September, the Pakistani Senate passed the ‘Peaceful Assembly and Public Order Bill 2024’ law. Pending further approval, the law is set to be implemented before a planned major 8 September demonstration by the main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in support of the jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The proposed legislation will empower Islamabad officials to ban assemblies in designated areas, with participants in unauthorised protests liable to receive prison sentences of up to three years.
Solace Global Assessment: In 2023, large-scale civil unrest frequently occurred in Pakistan after attempts to arrest Khan. Initially, the protests were managed by police with riot control measures such as tear gas and water cannons. Later demonstrations led to military deployment and internet shutdowns. Critics view the bill as a government tactic to suppress opposition and the bill’s passage is likely to heighten tensions.
The 8 September demonstration had already been rescheduled from 22 August following the withdrawal of permission by officials, and it is likely that authorities will attempt to suppress the upcoming rally. It is highly likely that violent clashes will occur in Islamabad during the protest. The bill reflects the government’s unstable position following contentious elections in February 2024 and will likely exacerbate levels of violence in future protests that are not granted official permission.
Bangladesh
Garment workers protest for higher pay in industrial areas.
Protests by garment factory workers in early September, mainly in key industrial areas such as Gazipur and Narayanganj, resulted in the closure of 130 garment factories. Their demands include higher wages, maternity leave and other concessions. The protesters vandalised factories and vehicles, as well as blocked roads, which resulted in the deployment of military and police forces. Although some workers continued to work throughout the protests, factories were forced to close in order to protect their employees from the violence. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) stated that unspecified “outsiders” were responsible for the violence. The protests initially focused on the demands of garment workers, but then reportedly escalated when outsiders joined the demonstrations, gathering outside factories demanding jobs and pressuring workers to join the protests. In response to the protests, the government has increased security in industrial areas, which allowed the factories to reopen on 5 September.
Solace Global Assessment: These protests are the first significant labour action in Bangladesh’s garment sector since the new interim government took office in August. Although there is increased security in the areas where protests took place, tensions are still likely to persist because a negotiated settlement between the garment workers and BGMEA has not yet been reached. The BGMEA has suggested that the unrest may be linked to the current political instability of Bangladesh, with tensions remaining high since the resignation of the prime minister on 9 August following weeks of deadly protests. Although an interim government has been established to restore law and order, it is likely that groups may be exploiting this to gain access and control of the garment market. On top of this, the ongoing mass floods across Bangladesh have meant factories have had to grapple with production stoppages. The political instability and financial strain the BGMEA are facing mean it is unlikely that the BGMEA will meet the demands of the protests, which would highly likely generate further unrest.In October and November 2023, garment workers’ strikes led to violent clashes with police, with at least three deaths and factories being set alight. There is a realistic possibility that equivalent levels of violence could occur again as a result of the ongoing industrial disputes.
China, Philippines and Vietnam
Super Typhoon strength storm Yagi makes landfall in Hainan.
Tropical Cyclone Yagi made landfall in Hainan, China, on 6 September. The storm made landfall at Super Typhoon strength, equivalent to a category 5 hurricane, with maximum windspeeds recorded of 241km/h. Yagi had earlier impacted the northern Philippines on 3-4 September as Severe Tropical Storm Enteng, killing 16 people. Luzon was the most impacted. Yagi then moved past Hong Kong and Macau, causing disruptions.
The Chinese Central Meteorological Agency has issued a red typhoon warning for Hainan and Guangdong, the highest warning possible. Over 400,000 people were evacuated on the southern Chinese coastline.
Solace Global Assessment: Yagi is the second-strongest Tropical Cyclone to occur anywhere in the world in 2024. It is the largest storm to hit Hainan since 2014 when Typhoon Rammasun killed at least 88 people and caused over USD 6.25 billion in damages. Hainan is a tropical holiday destination, referred to as “China’s Hawaii”. In anticipation of the Super Typhoon, Hainan was brought to a standstill, with businesses, schools and transport being halted. While the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area was spared notably severe impact, the Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai bridge and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange were closed.
The impact in Hainan, where Yagi has made landfall as a Super Typhoon, is highly likely to be worse. Meteorologists have warned that the scale of damage in Hainan could be “catastrophic”. The rigorous preparedness measures by Chinese authorities will, however, significantly aid in mitigating the worst possible outcomes.
Yagi is forecast to weaken from a Super Typhoon to a Very Strong Typhoon once it moves past Hainan, before weakening further to Typhoon strength just before making landfall in northern Vietnam. Four airports have already been closed in northern Vietnam, including Hanoi’s Noi Bai International Airport. Despite Yagi’s greatly increased strength over southern China, it is a realistic possibility that Yagi will cause more fatalities in Vietnam due to Vietnam’s higher level of vulnerability.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Putin visits Mongolia despite ICC arrest warrant.
The state visit likely represents an effort by Putin to highlight that, despite its illegal invasion of Ukraine, Russia is not internationally isolated. The visit is also likely to reflect ongoing Russian efforts to begin transitioning from its reliance on Europe as the main market for its fossil fuels. Russia and Mongolia have continued talks regarding the construction of a pipeline connecting the two countries.
Pope Francis tours Southeast Asia.
Pope Francis has arrived in Indonesia as part of his 12-day tour of Southeast Asia where he will visit Singapore, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Indonesia. In Jakarta, the Pope and Grand Imam Nasaruddin Umar of Istiqlal Mosque pledged to combat religious violence and environmental degradation, highlighting interfaith unity through a symbolic event at the mosque.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) carries out suicide bombing in Kabul.
ISKP had previously carried out a suicide bombing in Kandahar, one of the Taliban’s main strongholds. Its attack outside a Kabul government office, which killed at least six, is likely meant to further demonstrate the group’s ability to strike the Taliban’s administrative centres. Taliban authorities have continuously minimised the threat posed by ISKP, which nevertheless continues to be the Islamic State’s most active and likely most capable “province”.
South China Sea confrontations continue at Sabina Shoal.
Manila and Beijing accused each other of deliberately ramming each other’s vessels in an incident on 31 August at the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea. Aggressive confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels have occurred multiple times in recent months at the Second Thomas Shoal, and a deal was reached in late July that was hoped to de-escalate the situation. However, the new incident at the Sabina Shoal, in addition to a reported vessel collision there on 19 August, highly likely indicates that tensions remain high in the South China Sea with a new flashpoint for confrontations at the Sabina Shoal.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Monsoon rains cause deadly flooding in southern India.
Higher than average monsoon rains resulted in the deaths at least 33 people in southern India between 1 and 3 September. Significant flooding occurred as a result of the annual monsoon season since June. Forecasts indicate that the heavy rainfall will continue into late September. While the monsoon season is an annually recurring issue, this year’s monsoon will ultimately highly likely cause a greater level of impact than in previous years, exacerbated by La Nina weather conditions that will likely develop in September. Officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicate that the withdrawal of the monsoon season will likely be delayed as a result of developing La Nina weather conditions.
Military doctors deployed in South Korean hospitals due to ongoing strikes.
The measure was announced by the health ministry on 2 September to try to alleviate shortages in medical staff. Thousands of junior doctors have been conducting strikes since February 2024, in protest of government plans to drastically increase annual medical school admission caps. While authorities dispute claims by the national association of medical school professions that the medical system is on the verge of collapse, the deployment of military doctors is likely indicative of serious concerns that the staff shortage has drastically impacted the provision of healthcare.
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Executive Summary
- Following Macron’s refusal to appoint a leftist prime minister, it is highly likely that unrest will increase in France.
- Lone wolf attack in Germany with possible connections to IS will almost certainly lead to increased security and may inspire similar attacks across Europe.
- Hezbollah’s attack on Israel was largely thwarted but has likely informed a wider attack coordinated by Iran.
- The largest terrorist attack in Burkina Faso’s history is almost certainly indicative of a rapidly deteriorating security situation that will be marked by increasing VEO activity.
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AMER
Mexico: Controversial judicial reform bill approved by commission
Brazil: Authorities suspect organised crime behind wildfires
EMEA
France: Macron rules out leftist prime minister
Germany: Lone wolf kills three at diversity festival
Israel, Palestine Lebanon: Hezbollah attack thwarted by pre-emptive strikes
Burkina Faso: Largest terrorist attack in country’s history
APAC
Pakistan: BLA conducts wave of attacks in the western Pakistan
Japan: Typhoon Shanshan makes landfall in Kyushu.
Hong Kong: Journalists sentenced with sedition
North, Central and South America
Mexico
Congressional commission approves controversial judicial reform bill.
On 26 August, a commission in the lower house of Mexico’s Congress approved a judicial reform package, enabling a final debate to take place in the newly-elected Congress next month. The ruling Morena party, who won a landslide victory in June, will hold a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house, the Chamber of Deputies and are only one seat short in the Senate.
The most controversial measure in the judicial reform bill involves a plan to have approximately 7,000 judges, magistrates and Supreme Court justices elected by popular vote. Additionally, the bill scraps a 35-year age limit, lowers experience requirements, and reduces the size of the Supreme Court. The overhaul of the judiciary is planned to be enacted in stages, with staggered judicial elections taking place in 2025 and 2027.
In reaction, both the US and Canadian embassies expressed serious concerns, which led to Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announcing a pause in relations with these embassies on 27 August. Unions that represent many of the 55,000 judicial workers in Mexico previously launched an indefinite nationwide strike on 19 August, later joined by Mexico’s association of federal judges and magistrates, in protest against the potential reform package.
Solace Global Assessment:
AMLO, the popular outgoing president who has enjoyed high approval ratings and will be replaced by his successor Claudia Sheinbaum in October, frequently clashed with the courts during his presidential term. The Supreme Court in particular, impeded the implementation of several of AMLO’s initiatives. In response, AMLO has frequently described the Mexican judiciary as corrupt. Proponents of the judicial reform bill argue that it will address endemic corruption in the judiciary. It is highly likely, however, that the bill will further empower the ruling Moreno party. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held uninterrupted power for 71 years until 2000, effectively making Mexico a single-party state during this period. While constitutional reform has addressed some of these historic issues in Mexico’s democracy, critics of the judicial reform argue that its passage will give the Moreno party too much power without adequate checks and balances.
While purportedly intended to tackle corruption, the bill’s passage would likely enable organised crime to exploit judicial elections for their own ends. During Mexico’s elections, the cartels regularly assassinate candidates and engage in voter suppression. If judges are directly elected, it is highly likely that cartels will attempt to subvert the democratic process, undermining the strength of the judiciary in tackling organised crime. The strikes against the bill have temporarily weakened Mexico’s fragile justice system, and it is likely that the strikes will continue and potentially escalate if the bill passes through both houses.
Brazil
Large wildfires continue in Brazil, authorities suspect criminal cause.
Record-breaking wildfires are ongoing across the Amazon, Cerrado savannah, Pantanal wetland and the state of Sao Paulo in Brazil. So far, two people have died as a result of the fires, in Urupes. 48 cities declared a red alert due to poor air quality. The smog has impacted cities such as Brazil’s capital, Brasilia, as well as Sao Paulo, Manaus, Porto Velho, Rio Branco and Sao Jose do Rio Preto. In Sao Paulo state, a crisis cabinet was set up to tackle the fires, and the Brazilian environment minister declared that Brazil is “at war” with the fires on 25 August.the paragraph.
Solace Global Assessment:
Authorities suspect that organised crime gangs are largely responsible for the fires. While a federal prosecutor has stated that there is so far no conclusive evidence that the arson has been coordinated, there are several indications that criminal gangs are likely involved.
Firstly, of the 3,500 fire alerts in southeastern Sao Paulo state, over half were raised on the same day, 23 August. The State Agriculture Secretary later told media that the starting of fires in different locations at the same time indicates coordination and criminal intent. Secondly, according to Brazilian President Lula da Silva, no fires caused by lightning strikes were detected by Brazil’s national fire monitoring centre. Thirdly, Brazilian police have arrested four people linked to the fires, with two men caught on security cameras setting fires.
Some of the suspects have reportedly told police that the fires were set in retaliation against crimefighting efforts. It is likely that the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) gang, one of Brazil’s largest and most powerful organised criminal groups, are connected to the fires. Authorities have recently engaged in a campaign to tackle the PCC’s illicit adulterated fuels trade, which is the most likely trigger for retaliation by the PCC. In 2006, the PCC unleashed a wave of violence across Sao Paulo state which killed over 150 people.
While human involvement in Brazilian wildfires is not uncommon, mainly due to illegal deforestation and agricultural practices, the potential weaponisation of wildfires by criminal gangs is a concerning new development. With a relatively low number of resources, manpower and technical skill, the setting of wildfires can have a significant, highly visible and widespread impact that overstretches resources and capabilities.
The effects of the current fires are being felt in several major Brazilian cities, which are covered in smog. It is likely that if the fires are indeed the result of coordinated organised criminal actions, gangs will continue to deploy the tactic in future when the need for retaliation arises. There is a realistic possibility that gangs elsewhere in Latin America may be inspired by the weaponisation of wildfires and deploy the tactic themselves.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Honduras to end extradition treaty with the US.
On 28 August, Honduras announced that it would terminate its century-old extradition treaty with the US following US concerns over a meeting between Honduran and Venezuelan defence officials about drug trafficking. President Xiomara Castro condemned what she saw as US interference in Honduran politics. The treaty had facilitated the extradition of prominent figures, including former President Juan Orlando Hernandez, convicted in the US on drug charges. The treaty’s termination likely signals Honduras’ alignment with Venezuela and a deterioration in US-Honduran relations which could harm US efforts to combat drugs trafficking.
Protests and government crackdown continue in Venezuela.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called for peaceful protests and international pressure to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, on 27 August. This follows a 22 August decision by the Supreme Court of Venezuela, which is made up of Maduro loyalists, to certify the contested 28 July election result. The election result was highly likely rigged by the regime, with several indications that the opposition won a landslide victory. The regime has since launched a crackdown, and on 27 August, leading opposition figure and lawyer Perkins Rocha was allegedly “kidnapped” by security forces. An opposition demonstration occurred in Caracas on 28 August, attended by Machado, which was smaller than prior protests. There had been a relative lull in unrest in the past fortnight, highly likely due to the impact of government suppression in arresting protest leaders and the threat of reprisals. While Machado’s call for a revival of anti-government protests is likely to temporarily increase unrest in Venezuela in the short term, it is likely that the extent of the regime’s crackdown will severely curtail the opposition’s organisational capability.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Haitian military starts recruitment drive to combat gang violence.
The Haitian government has launched a huge recruitment drive for its military in a bid to combat escalating gang violence, with gangs controlling 80 per cent of the country. Thousands of Haitian youth are seizing the opportunity, likely as it is one of the few sustainable sources of revenue in a country plagued by poverty and unemployment. However, after being disbanded in 1995 and only reinstated in 2017, it is likely that the military is ill-equipped to deal with the well-armed and organised gangs. Haitian forces have also initiated a joint operation with the recently deployed Kenyan police to oust gangs from one of Port-au-Prince’s most dangerous neighbourhoods. However, the Kenyan police have not yet been paid by the UN, which, if this continues, could impact the effectiveness of the intervention force.
US warns of increased violence in Culiacan, Sinaloa.
The US Embassy in Mexico issued a security alert on 29 August warning of violence and security concerns in Culiacan, Sinaloa province. The alert has warned of the potential for violence across the state but has not provided further details. The alert has likely been published in response to the recent arrest of the Sinaloa Cartel’s leader, “El Mayo” and the son of El Chapo Guzman which has created a power vacuum in Mexico’s most powerful organised crime group.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Central Bolivia struggles to contain wildfires.
The central Bolivian department of Santa Cruz is grappling with a severe environmental crisis, as over 27 wildfires rage, mainly in the Chiquitania region. These fires, exacerbated by extreme drought and strong winds, have devastated 26 of the department’s 56 municipalities and burned nearly 2 million hectares, surpassing the damage caused by the 2019 fires. The situation is particularly dire in municipalities such as San Ignacio de Velasco, San Matías, Santa Ana, and Concepción, where conditions remain favourable for further fire spread. Moreover, Bolivia lacks the personnel and resources to effectively curtail the spread of the fires and will likely be forced to ask for international aid. Fires have significantly worsened air quality, severely affecting vulnerable populations like children, the elderly, and those with respiratory conditions.
Brazilian state of Rondônia declares state of emergency.
The Brazilian state of Rondônia has declared a state of emergency for 180 days valid from 26 August due to the impact of forest fires. The number of fires has doubled compared to August 2023, with nearly 6000 so far in 2024. The fires have hugely disrupted agriculture, river navigation and the local economy. The state is also suffering from water shortages due to a prolonged drought, which is forecasted to last for the next 90 days. The major city of Porto-Velho has not recorded significant rainfall for three months. Water levels on the Madeira River, which runs through the states of Rondônia and Amazonas, have reached their lowest level since 1964 and will likely disproportionately affect riverine communities.
Widespread power outages reported across Venezuela.
Power outages were reported in at least 17 Venezuelan regions, including the capital Caracas on 30 August. The outages are similar to the ones in 2019 which began just before the presidential election and lasted for several months afterwards. The 2019 outages resulted in at least 43 deaths after disrupting the country’s healthcare facilities, transport, industry, and water services. President Maduro blamed both the 2019 and current outages on “sabotage”; however, the likelihood is that Venezuela has suffered a huge reduction in technical expertise following a brain drain of skilled workers.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
France
Macron rules out appointment of prime minister from New Popular Front.
On 26 August, the office of French President Emmanuel Macron stated that following consultations, Macron has ruled out the appointment of a prime minister from the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP).
The June and July snap legislative elections resulted in a hung parliament, with the NFP, Macron’s centrist Ensemble party, and the far-right National Rally (RN) parties winning most of the available seats. Of these, the NFP won the most seats. The RN stated earlier on 26 August that the party would block any prime ministerial appointment coming from the NFP. In reaction, the NFP has announced a refusal to engage in any new consultations unless they are to discuss the nomination of their candidate, Lucie Castets, as prime minister.
Solace Global Assessment: The NFP is an electoral alliance between the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), the Socialists, the Greens and the Communists. Of these, Mélenchon’s LFI has the most seats. While Castets, is affiliated with the centre-left Socialist Party, it is likely that her confirmation that she would appoint LFI ministers led Macron to conclude that her appointment would be politically unworkable. This is due to the threat of no-confidence motions against a government with LFI ministers. In recent political history, since the establishment of the French Fifth Republic’s strong presidential system in 1958, coalition negotiations have not been a common feature of the French political process. The current stalemate is unlikely to be resolved with a stable, lasting solution. The NFP and NR are likely to both seek to exploit the political chaos to oust Macron, whose presidential term is set to end in 2027, via a call for an early presidential election, should the stalemate not be resolved. The LFI has called for large demonstrations on 7 September, a day before the end of the Paris Paralympic Games, and the Communists have called for a “big popular mobilisation” in the coming days. It is highly likely that civil unrest will increase in France, after a lull during the Olympic Games. Due to the high-security measures that will be enforced during the Paralympic Games in Paris, it is likely that demonstrations will be met with a vigorous police response, which would in turn likely lead to violent clashes.
Germany
Lone wolf attack kills three and injures several others at German festival.
On 23 August, a lone wolf assailant conducted a mass stabbing attack at the City Festival in Solingen, North Rhine-Westphalia in northern Germany. The festival was a three-day event that celebrated Solingen’s 650th anniversary, labelled as a “Festival of Diversity”, and was immediately cancelled.
The attacker stabbed at least nine people in the neck. Three victims were pronounced dead at the scene and several others were admitted to hospital with severe injuries. After a manhunt lasting just over 24 hours, the assailant handed himself in at a local police station. The attacker, known as “Issa”, has been described as a Syrian refugee who was claiming German asylum. The attacker claims to have connections to the Islamic State (IS) and reportedly stated that he had pledged allegiance to IS to “avenge Muslims in Palestine and everywhere”. German intelligence has indicated that the attacker was not previously identified as an Islamist extremist.
Solace Global Assessment: IS’ official media outlet, Amaq, was quick to claim a connection to the attacker but has not provided any evidence to substantiate a prior connection. Moreover, it is atypical for a member of IS to hand themselves in after an attack, potentially highlighting the assailant’s mental state and motivations.
IS is likely claiming an affiliation with the attacker partially because the attack was successful but more importantly, is seeking to use it to bolster its propaganda. IS’ ability to conduct complex external attacks was greatly diminished due to coalition efforts at degrading the group and forcing it into an insurgency.
The recent attack in Moscow, which was almost certainly orchestrated by the Afghanistan-based affiliate Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), may indicate a resurgence in these capabilities.
However, the group’s capability to conduct terrorist attacks in Europe is currently likely primarily achieved through its ability to inspire low-sophistication lone wolf attacks- attacks that are challenging to pre-empt or disrupt and can occur almost anywhere. IS continues to call on potential followers to use methods like stabbing, car-ramming, and arson to project the idea that it is everywhere despite a reduction in its ability to conduct more complex attacks.
The group is almost certainly capitalising on current sentiment and division caused by the war in Gaza and Western nations’ support for Israel. Multiple media outlets tied to IS have called for further attacks in Europe, and it is almost certain that enhanced security measures will be put in place at upcoming high-profile events like the Paris Paralympics, Munich’s Oktoberfest, and a multitude of late summer festivals.
The attack has been leveraged by both the far-right and the opposition in Germany to demand change, especially as the attacker was due for deportation. With regional elections upcoming, Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) will likely exploit the attack for political gain, which could inspire protests and even far-right attacks. In response, Chancellor Scholz has held a meeting with the opposition to explore increased deportations, changes to Germany’s knife laws and changes to its immigration policies. However, there is a realistic possibility that increased public discourse over immigration and the threat of deportations will increase extremist attacks in Germany.
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon
Hezbollah strike on Israel disrupted by IDF strikes.
On 24 August, Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a reprisal attack for Israel’s assassination of Fuad Shukr. The layered attack consisted of approximately 200-300 projectiles, including rockets, missiles and one-way attack drones.
The attack consisted of two waves, with the first wave designed to overwhelm Israeli air defence, targeting Israel Defence Force (IDF) positions in northern Israel. The second wave was designed to bypass air defence and penetrate deeper into Israel, including military installations near Hadera and Tel Aviv.
However, the scale of Hezbollah’s attack was intended to be much larger but was reduced by pre-emptive IDF strikes. According to Israeli sources, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) deployed over 100 warplanes and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah launch sites and munitions 30 minutes before the attack. The IDF assesses that between 50 and 67 per cent of munitions set aside for the attack were destroyed.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah has claimed that the attack was just the initial phase of retribution. A spokesperson for the Houthi Movement has also stated that their retaliation for Israel’s strike on al-Hudaydah is “definitely coming”. The Pentagon has warned that Iran is still planning a major attack on Israel with help from its Axis of Resistance in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
Solace Global Assessment: The IAF’s pre-emptive strikes on Hezbollah likely indicate the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence which is almost certainly being bolstered with external help.
However, if Iran and its proxies are to launch a major strike from multiple axes, it is almost certain that the IDF does not have the combat power to conduct multiple pre-emptive strikes on several fronts. It is likely that Hezbollah’s two waves of strikes were not its main retaliation but part of Iran’s wider strategy.
The Hezbollah attack has likely fixed IDF resources in the north of Israel and likely been used to conduct reconnaissance in force- a deliberate military action designed to test and understand the enemy’s force disposition and identify any vulnerabilities. Iran and its proxies have likely learned lessons from the Hezbollah attack that will inform how it plans and conducts a wider attack. Iranian forces, media, and senior officials continue to act and posture themselves in a manner suggesting an imminent attack, likely delaying action to plan, coordinate, and, crucially, evaluate the progress of ongoing peace talks.
The White House has reiterated its commitment to defend Israel and continues to maintain an enhanced force posture in the region. The US defence of Israel will likely foster greater political division in the States and will likely result in reprisal attacks on US forces from Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East, a development that could further escalate tensions.
Burkina Faso
Al-Qaeda-linked militants killed hundreds on road to capital.
On 24 August, the Burkinabe town of Barsalogho was targeted in a major militant attack. Current estimates assess that as many as 200-500 people were killed in the attack and hundreds injured, most of whom were reportedly civilians. The attack has been claimed by the al-Qaeda-linked Jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The military government was reportedly aware of an impending attack and ordered troops, Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) and civilians to hastily erect defences. JNIM ambushed the defenders in the open, firing indiscriminately on those within the defensive area until reinforcements of Burkinabe troops and the VDP managed to repel the attack.
Solace Global Assessment: The Barsalogho attack marks the worst terrorist attack in Burkina Faso’s history and clearly demonstrates how much the security situation has deteriorated since the expulsion of Western forces. Moreover, with the junta government’s expulsion of Western forces in neighbouring Niger and Mali, violent extremist organisations (VEOs) have been presented with favourable conditions to achieve their objectives. JNIM in particular have exploited the regional destabilisation to expand their operations across the Sahel. Whilst VEOs like JNIM do not typically govern territory in the same manner as a state, it is now assessed that JNIM controls approximately 40 per cent of Burkina Faso as well as huge parts of Mali and Niger.
The attack has almost certainly increased pressure on the junta government and forms part of JNIM’s strategy to target isolated government-held towns to undermine the junta’s authority. Barsalogho is strategically important because the next town is Kaya, located in north-central Burkina Faso, which hosts the last major government military base before reaching the capital, Ouagadougou.
JNIM is likely to continue to employ such brutal tactics to further undermine the regime and also to force civilians to flee as it advances towards Ouagadougou. The current Islamist insurgency, which involves multiple VEOs, has led to multiple coup attempts. This is likely to result in the junta prioritising regime security over counter-insurgency efforts, leading to greater instability and more attacks.
After the expulsion of Western forces, the junta has relied on external support from Mali under the recently formed Alliance of Sahel States and to a lesser extent Russian mercenaries. With Mali facing a similar situation, it is not in a position to send serious reinforcements without jeopardising its security. Russian forces are currently conducting more offensive operations in Mali with limited success. The junta may look to the Kremlin for additional support, although with the war in Ukraine, Russian forces are likely overstretched. If Burkina Faso fails to secure significant external support, it will likely set the conditions for VEOs to expand their operations into the northern parts of coastal West African states like Benin, Ghana and Togo.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Strike set for UK’s busiest airport.
On 31 August, more than 600 Border Force passport control workers at London Heathrow, the UK’s busiest airport, will go on strike for four days. This will then be followed by nearly three weeks of work-to-rule action where workers will do no more work than what is contractually obliged. The strike will almost certainly lead to significant disruption and could have knock-on effects for other UK-based airports.
State elections in Germany’s Thuringia and Saxony.
On 1 September, state elections will be held in Thuringia and Saxony. Recent polls indicate that the German far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is leading the race and has likely capitalised on the recent attack in Solingen. However, they are unlikely to win a majority, and the remaining parties will be highly reticent to form a coalition with the AfD. Another party polling well is Sahra Wagenknecht’s new Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party, a left-wing nationalist, populist and Eurosceptic party. If both parties perform well, the remaining parties will face a challenging decision on coalition partners, as both parties advocate for agendas that significantly diverge from those of the central government.
Azerbaijan to hold parliamentary elections.
On 1 September, Azeris will go to the polls in parliamentary elections after President Ilham Aliyev dissolved parliament in June. Over fears of electoral fraud, nearly 300 election monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will observe the polls, an organisation that recently criticised the 2024 presidential election for its lack of transparency and choice. Aliyev’s New Azerbaijan party will almost certainly win the election and may increase its current majority.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
CENTCOM kills al-Qaeda affiliate leader in Syria.
On 23 August, forces from the US Central Command (CENTCOM) killed the Hurras al-Din senior leader Abu-’Abd al-Rahman al-Makki in a targeted kinetic strike in Syria. Al-Makki was a Shura Council member of the al-Qaeda affiliate responsible for conducting terrorist operations in Syria. The killing could temporarily disrupt Hurras al-Din’s operations but may also inspire reprisal attacks on US forces in the region.
Israeli forces conduct largest operation in West Bank in months.
On 27 August, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) began an extensive military operation in the West Bank, launching raids in Nablus, Qabatiya, Silat al Khartia, al Fara refugee camp, Jenin refugee camp, and Nour al Shams refugee camp.
The operation has involved hundreds of personnel accompanied by drones, making the operation the largest in the West Bank for months. On 29 August, Israeli forces killed five alleged Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants, reportedly in a home next to a mosque in Tulkarm near the Nour al Shams refugee camp.
According to the IDF, one of those killed was Mohammed Jaber, known as Abu Shujaa, a commander of the local PIJ branch. Abu Shujaa is suspected to have been involved in several terror attacks, namely the June murder of an Israeli citizen in the city of Qalqilya, West Bank. Local media reports that at least 17 people have been killed in this week’s West Bank operation thus far.
The IDF has generally refrained from regularly conducting such large-scale operations in the West Bank, and the United Nations (UN) has issued a statement urging Israel to cease the operation. It is likely that such targeted operations in the West Bank will continue, due to its use as a base of operations for terrorist attacks against Israel. While the Fatah-controlled Palestinian National Authority (PA) in the West Bank are highly unlikely to react to the operation with any military response, it is likely that the relatively substantial IDF presence in the West Bank will generate civil unrest.
Egypt delivers arms to Somalia.
Egypt has delivered military aid to Somalia for the first time in over four decades in a move that will almost certainly escalate relations with Ethiopia. The move follows a recent security pact between Egypt and Somalia, partially motivated by Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland, which seeks independence from Somalia. Egypt has also offered to send troops to Somalia for a new peacekeeping mission, raising the risk of a proxy conflict between the two nations that have been at odds for years over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
AU and UN planning new Somali peacekeeping mission.
The African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) are planning a new AU-led peacekeeping mission in Somalia, set to replace the current mission which ends in late 2024. The AU endorsed this successor mission in June 2024, developed a strategic plan in August, and submitted it to the UN Security Council for approval.
This new mission, named the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), will maintain a similar force size to its predecessor, ATMIS, with around 11,911 personnel. AUSSOM will focus on ongoing peace-building efforts, such as providing security and countering al-Shabaab, while international partners and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) will handle state-building tasks. If the peacekeeping mission does not materialise, al-Shabaab and other militant groups will almost certainly be in an advantageous position to increase their attacks, expand their influence and undermine the SFG.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Torrential rain leads to major landslide near Naples, Italy.
A catastrophic landslide caused by torrential rain has killed at least two people near the town of San Felice a Cancello, located approximately 30 kilometres (19 miles) northeast of Naples, Italy. The area that collapsed had already been severely weakened by a wildfire that destroyed much of the vegetation. Southern Italy has been facing extreme temperatures and heavy rainfall, creating conditions ripe for flash floods, landslides, and other environmental disasters, which have been further worsened by deforestation.
World Food Program to launch investigation in Sudan.
The UN’s World Food Program (WFP) has launched an investigation into senior officials in Sudan for alleged fraud and for obfuscating the Sudanese army’s role in obstructing aid deliveries. Other allegations include mismanagement, misleading donors, and the disappearance of resources. Sudan is now facing its worst humanitarian crisis in decades as a result of the civil war. 80 per cent of health facilities are out of service, millions have been displaced and around 20 million are faced with food insecurity.
Dozens killed by bursting dam in eastern Sudan.
At least 30 people have been killed and hundreds missing in eastern Sudan after a dam burst which flooded at least 20 villages. Surging waters caused by torrential rain overwhelmed the Arbaat Dam on 25 August, just 40km north of Port Sudan, the country’s current de facto capital and home to the central government alongside international diplomats, aid agencies and thousands of displaced people. The dam was the main source of water for Port Sudan, which is also home to Sudan’s largest port and working airport, where most international aid is received. Flooding caused by the collapsed dam will almost certainly hinder humanitarian efforts which have already been greatly impeded by the civil war.
Houthis to allow assistance to damaged oil tanker in the Red Sea.
The Houthis have reportedly agreed to tugboats and rescue vessels accessing the stricken oil tanker SOUNION (IMO: 9312145) in the Red Sea. The Houthis are responsible for immobilising and damaging the Greek-flagged vessel during an attack on 21 August, and the tanker has since been abandoned. On 29 August, the Houthi media published footage showing Houthi militants boarding the abandoned vessel and detonating explosives on deck. Carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude oil, there are serious concerns that unless controlled, the leaking of oil could lead to a “potential environmental catastrophe”.
A major spill from the vessel could potentially be one of the largest vessel oil spills in history. The Pentagon has stated that the vessel appears to be leaking oil, however, Aspides, the EU mission in the Red Sea, has since stated that the area around the SOUNION is free of oil. If an oil spill occurred, Houthi Yemen would highly likely be impacted considering its dependence on fishing, which has highly likely motivated the Houthi decision to allow assistance to the vessel.
Asia–Pacific
Pakistan
BLA conduct series of attacks under “Operation Herof”.
On 25 August, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) launched “Operation Herof” in the Balochistan region. The operation began with a complex attack that used vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) at Bela Camp to gain access to the Pakistani military facility. This was followed by BLA squads entering the compound and killing 24 Pakistani soldiers with small arms fire. BLA militants then conducted a series of attacks across the region targeting Pakistan’s security services, and critical national infrastructure (CNI) including railways, and the seizure of major highways. The BLA’s Commander-in-Chief, Bashir Zeib Baloch, stated that the declared intent of the operation was to force the Pakistani government into ceasing its operations in Balochistan. The operation included at least 800 BLA militants, took place in 12 cities across nine districts, and according to the BLA, resulted in the deaths of over 100 Pakistani troops. The BLA established roadblocks and checked the identities of people on highways, shooting 23 identified as non-local migrant workers from the Punjab region.
Solace Global Assessment: The attacks began on the 18th anniversary of the death of a Baloch nationalist leader, likely suggesting that the BLA are continuing a trend of conducting attacks on important Baloch dates. The series of BLA attacks was likely organised to demonstrate the group’s growing capabilities and ability to launch multiple coordinated complex attacks. The successful partial seizure of a Pakistani military camp and control of highways are further evidence of the BLA’s capabilities and will likely jeopardise Pakistan’s attempts to incorporate the region into China’s Belts and Roads Initiative (BRI). The targeting of essential elements of the BRI, such as roads and railways, was likely designed to deter foreign investment and to send a strategic message that the BLA will not allow the exploitation of local resources. The purported mass execution of Punjab labourers was also likely aimed at achieving these objectives. The central government is increasingly having to turn to labour imported from other parts of Pakistan due to Baloch resistance. High-profile BLA attacks on non-Baloch labour are highly likely to increase to deter future migration into the region. The overall success of the BLA attacks and its ability to provide real-time information about the attacks combined with sophisticated propaganda videos are likely to drive BLA recruitment and funding, further contributing to its operational capabilities.
Hong Kong
Pro-democracy journalists charged with sedition.
On 29 August, two editors who led a pro-democracy newspaper, Stand News, were tried by a Hong Kong court and found guilty of sedition. Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam, could now face up to two years in prison. The case marks the first ruling against journalists in Hong Kong since the territory’s handover from the UK to China in 1997. The ruling has been condemned by rights groups as a nefarious campaign against the freedom of the press.
Solace Global Assessment: The case forms part of a wider campaign in Hong Kong aimed at suppressing dissent, and freedom of speech and will likely serve as a precedent for future rulings as Beijing consolidates its control over the territory. Beijing’s ability to stifle the opposition in Hong Kong has been greatly augmented since the introduction of the controversial National Security Law (NSL), which has been in effect since 2020. The NSL was introduced under the justification of combating secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion of foreign forces, although Beijing’s interpretation of these acts likely differs vastly from many in Hong Kong. Whilst the NSL has been greatly successful at curbing dissent, the Stand News editors were actually charged under a colonial-era sedition law. Beijing’s tactic was likely an attempt to deflect from the NSL by adhering to existing legal frameworks but with the same outcome. The case and the wider effort to suppress dissent are unlikely to provoke civil unrest after the crackdown following the 2019-20 protests. However, it will likely damage Hong Kong’s reputation and contribute to deterring foreign investment in one of the world’s major business hubs.
Japan
Typhoon Shanshan makes landfall in Kyushu.
The strongest typhoon in the 2024 Pacific typhoon season thus far, Shanshan had maximum windspeeds of 213 km/h and average windspeeds of 157 km/h just before landfall. The typhoon made landfall on the southwestern Japanese island of Kyushu on 28 August. Over 5.2 million people were given evacuation orders.
At least four deaths and 45 injuries have been reported thus far, with three of the deaths being attributed to landslides. Kagoshima and Miyazaki Prefecture were the most severely impacted areas, with damaged residences, overturned cars, flooding, and landslides. Over 250,000 people were left without power, primarily in Kagoshima Prefecture.
Several major international companies suspended operations at their facilities in the area. No impact was reported at Sendai Nuclear Power Plant. In Oita Prefecture, level 5 emergency warnings, which indicate threat to life, were issued for the cities of Yufu and Usa, after the Miyakawa River burst its banks and possible flooding from the Yakkan River.
Solace Global Assessment: Authorities have described Shanshan as one of the strongest storms to ever hit Kyushu. After moving through Kyushu, Shanshan weakened into a tropical storm and is currently moving through Shikoku island. While the storm caused mass disruptions, the level of humanitarian impact has been low relative to the storm’s strength. This is due to Japan’s low vulnerability to tropical cyclones, as the country has comprehensive preparedness and resiliency measures.
The mass evacuation orders issued by authorities almost certainly significantly reduced the death toll. The storm is forecast to further weaken into a tropical depression and continue moving eastwards over the weekend. While substantially weakened, authorities are concerned that the warm and moist air around the storm that caused heavy rainfall far from the main body in Kyushu will continue to cause adverse weather over the coming days.
On 30 August, tens of thousands were asked to evacuate Tokyo due to landslide warnings, with three Tokyo rivers, the Meguro, Nogawa and Sengawa being issued level 4 warnings. It is highly likely that torrential rain will continue across large areas of Japan over the weekend, disrupting travel and causing factory and office closures.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Myanmar junta commits to 2025 elections.
Myanmar’s military junta has promised to hold a general election in late 2025 but with voting to be staggered due to security concerns. However, junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has made the same promise since 2021 when the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party remains disbanded. The announcement has been largely dismissed by the opposition who likely assess that it will be mired in fraud and only used as a mechanism to legitimise military rule. The junta is also likely using the promise of elections to deter the ethnic rebel forces that continue to seize territory from the military.
BJP strike paralyses transport in India’s West Bengal.
On 28 August in West Bengal, thousands of protesters, mainly Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers, blocked trains, halted buses, and forced shops to close in response to the brutal rape and murder of a trainee doctor. The BJP called for a 12-hour state-wide protest strike, following clashes with police who used tear gas and water cannons to disperse a recent march. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party is in opposition in the state and may seek to conduct further protests to undermine the All-India Trinamool Congress coalition which leads the eastern state.
Thailand’s Pheu Thai to exclude military-backed party from coalition.
Thailand’s Pheu Thai Party will exclude the Palang Pracharat Party from its coalition in forming the next government after Palang Pracharat leader Prawit Wongsuwon’s absence from a key parliamentary vote. Despite this, Pheu Thai is confident of securing a strong coalition with over 300 seats. This decision underscores ongoing tensions with military-backed factions, reflecting deeper political rifts and potentially impacting the stability of the new government as Pheu Thai aims to consolidate power and distance itself from military influences.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Multiple attacks through Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
Throughout the reporting period, there have been multiple attacks and counter-terrorism operations throughout multiple districts in the Indian-administered union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The territory is set to hold its first elections in over a decade starting in mid-September. Militant attacks are likely to increase in the run-up to the elections, with violent extremists’ intent on influencing the elections.
PLA to conduct military exercises on China-Myanmar border.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has initiated joint air-ground patrols along the border with Myanmar after property in China was damaged by cross-border artillery fire. On 27-29 August elements from the Southern Theater of the PLA conducted live-fire exercises, likely aimed at sending a message to rebel ethnic forces. China is likely becoming increasingly concerned over an overspill of the conflict and the war has decreased cross-border trade. Beijing’s ultimate objective is likely to pressure the warring sides into peace talks, a development that will likely increase its influence in the country.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Cholera warning across Nepal.
The Ministry of Health and Population in Nepal has advised all residents to boil water or purify it before use after identifying 22 cholera cases in the past two weeks. The real number is almost certainly higher as most of the country is not under active surveillance for the disease. The ministry has also warned of increased transmission rates as the dry season approaches due to the increased mixing of waster with decreasing water sources.
Mass flooding in Bangladesh causes devastation.
Heavy rainfall resulting from annual monsoon conditions has caused significant floods, with Noakhali, Cumilla, Laxipur, Feni, Chattogram and Moulvibazar being most impacted. Over 5.7 million people have been affected, with around 500,000 displaced. So far, at least 20 people have died. It is highly likely that the death toll will continue to rise, with rescue and relief operations are ongoing. Water from upstream rivers in India has worsened the floods, with Indian authorities releasing water from dams. Because of this, it is likely that anti-Indian sentiment will increase in Bangladesh, which could result in further attacks on Hindus.
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Executive Summary
- There is a realistic possibility that fighting will resume in Libya between the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Libyan National Army (LNA), after four years of ceasefire.
- Iran continues to indicate that an attack on Israel is imminent but has likely delayed to evaluate ceasefire progress and to reassess the nature and timing of an attack.
- The Ruto administration’s decision to reintroduce elements of June’s controversial tax bill will highly likely provoke civil unrest across Kenya.
- Protests across Indonesia will almost certainly resume if the government re-attempts to reverse the decision of the Constitutional Court’s reform before local elections.
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AMER
Canada: Bomb threats sent to over 100 Jewish institutions
Nicaragua: Government expands NGO bans
Argentina: Plot to attack Jewish community thwarted
EMEA
Libya: Chaos at central bank inflames tensions amidst troop mobilisations
Israel, Palestine Lebanon: First Hamas suicide bombing since 2008
Israel and Iran: Tehran continues to indicate attack on Israel is imminent
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden: Houthi attacks intensify after a week of inactivity
Kenya: Ruto plans to reintroduce elements of controversial tax bill
APAC
Pakistan: State cracks down on information space
Indonesia: Protests as government attempts to limit opposition
North, Central and South America
Canada: Mass bomb threat targets over 100 Jewish institutions
Canada’s Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has opened an investigation after an e-mail was sent to 125 Jewish-linked organisations on 21 August. The e-mail stated that bombs had been planted on their premises and that they would be detonated that day. No bombs have been identified by the RCMP with investigations still underway. The e-mail was sent to Synagogues, Jewish schools, Jewish community centres and other Jewish-linked institutions.
Solace Global Assessment:
It is highly unlikely that there is a genuine bomb threat and that this is part of a wider campaign to instil fear and disrupt the lives of the Jewish community. The e-mail is reported to be very similar to one sent to at least 100 hospitals, companies, shopping centres and government institutions in India. This suggests a coordinated effort and early investigations are attempting to identify the sender’s IP address.
Canada has likely been targeted for its Jewish diaspora, estimated at 400-450,000 and India for its staunch support of Israel, and there is a realistic possibility that the sender has connections to both countries given the large Indian diaspora in Canada. Whilst there may be no direct threat to life from the incident, it almost certainly indicates a rise in antisemitism in Canada that is also reflected in many other Western countries.
Several Jewish schools in Canada have been targeted in shootings that were likely designed to scare the Jewish community rather than kill as they were often done at night. These trends will almost certainly continue in parallel to developments in the Middle East and are likely to increase in severity with ceasefire talks showing little promise and the situation in Gaza rapidly deteriorating.
Nicaragua: Ortega administration bans a further 1500 NGOs
On 19 August, the official gazette of the government of Nicaragua published a list of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) whose activities would be banned. Additionally, the government announced that it would move to confiscate assets owned by the groups. Most of the banned NGOs are religious groups, and the move thus continues the policy of widespread government crackdowns on local Church authorities. However, other humanitarian organisations, including the Red Cross, are also banned.
Solace Global Assessment:
In total, the government has so far shut down approximately 5,000 civil society groups. The Catholic Church has been a particularly prominent target, likely due to its continuing importance for Nicaragua’s largely Christian population and its role as a mediator in past anti-government protests.
The Nicaraguan government has been headed by Daniel Ortega for almost half a century. The Ortega regime faced one significant challenge in the waves of protests between 2014 and 2019 but has almost certainly managed to significantly decrease the opposition’s viability and traction in the country, forcing the majority of leaders into exile. The latest wave of bans, which also interests cultural institutions (such as chess clubs), is highly likely meant to accelerate a shift towards the complete government oversight of civil society actors, with surviving NGOs forced to establish formal ties with government departments that highly restrict their freedom of operations.
The Ortega regime has also recently increased its efforts to establish intelligence and policing partnerships with Russia, approving in March the establishment of a Russia-funded police training centre in Managua, which highly likely provides a stable foothold for Russian intelligence to operate in the country. In late June, suspicions of Russia increasing intelligence activity in Nicaragua were raised by American observers, who reported on possible Russian-Nicaraguan cooperation to create a signals intelligence (SIGINT) base in the country similar to the (likely) one in Lourdes, Cuba. Ortega is likely to continue increasing moves to coup-proof the regime, including increased intelligence cooperation with Cuba, Russia, and Venezuela.
In the immediate term, the latest wave of bans is almost certain to significantly decrease the security of foreign travellers and humanitarian workers in Nicaragua, increasing the threat of violence and arbitrary detention by local police. Most importantly, the disappearance of foreign humanitarian organisations is highly likely to worsen the extremely precarious conditions faced by the Nicaraguan people, nine out of ten of whom are estimated to live in poverty.
Argentina: Police thwart terror plots on Argentinian Jews.
The Argentine Federal Police (PFA) announced the arrest of seven individuals allegedly part of a network of Salafi extremists, ideologically inspired by the Islamic State (IS) and other violent extremist organisations (VEOs), planning attacks in the country. The arrests occurred in Mendoza, and shortly after the 30th anniversary of the bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, which was however carried out by Shia extremists.
Solace Global Assessment:
While South America likely remains a low-priority target for transnational Islamist extremist organisations, it is highly likely that Argentina’s risk profile is higher than that of its neighbours. This is due to structural factors as well as recent political developments. First, Argentina has the largest Jewish community in South America, assessed as numbering slightly less than 200,000. Jewish institutions and religion have a comparatively large prominence in Argentina’s social fabric, and, relatedly, the Argentine Jewish community has strong links to Israel. Due to the country’s long-standing economic woes, Argentinian Jews have migrated to Israel (the practice of “Aliyah”) in large numbers, especially since the early 2000s, and there are now around 50,000 Argentine Jews and descendants in Israel.
Second, the presidency of Javier Milei has resulted in the country’s adoption of a highly internationally visible pro-Israel policy, and Milei has also reportedly raised the possibility of converting to Judaism. In the context of the ongoing war in Gaza, these elements almost certainly make Argentina a high-profile possible target for Islamist VEOs.
It is highly unlikely that the arrested individuals’ relationship with IS went beyond mere “admiration”, as there are currently no credible indications that the group has directly sought to form cells in the country. However, Islamist VEOs have long exploited the tri-border area (TBA) between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay to conduct illicit activity and generate funds for operations. There is a realistic possibility that independent (and possibly more radical) groups are taking advantage of the lack of state presence in the area to pursue similar activity.
The arrests are relevant as they are likely to have an impact on Argentina’s domestic security approach to counterterrorism. Earlier in August, Defence Minister Luis Petri filed a bill that would allow the military to take over some policing operations in situations of “terrorism”. Domestic NGOs and government opponents have criticised the bill on the basis that it does not define the threat, and that it grants the armed forces too much influence over domestic policing. The arrest of the group may increase the chances of the bill passing in parliament.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Canadian rail union dispute shuts down major railroads
On 22 August, Canada’s top railroads, Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), locked out over 9,000 unionised workers, leading to a major rail stoppage. The dispute arose from failed contract negotiations, with both the railroads and the Teamsters union blaming each other for the impasse.
The work stoppage poses a significant threat to North American supply chains and could result in billions of dollars in economic damage, with Moody’s estimating daily costs of over CAD 341 million. The Canadian government has urged the parties to resolve the conflict but has not yet intervened.
US House Republicans publish report accusing Biden of impeachable conduct
The report alleges that the President committed offences that meet the bar for charges of abuse of power and obstruction, with some allegations dating back to his vice-presidency. Similar reports have historically resulted in Congress impeachment votes. However, the Republican Party lacks the votes to impeach the President, and therefore the report can highly likely be considered a political move in light of the upcoming election, and of Republican candidate Trump’s own past impeachment and ongoing trials.
US Supreme Court blocks Biden administration rule on gender identity-based discrimination
The ruling prevents the federal administration from implementing the rule, which focuses primarily on education institutions, against state wishes, and can be considered a victory for the conservative camp, which maintains a majority in the judicial branch. There is a realistic possibility that anti-transphobia protests will be staged in Washington D.C. and in Republican-led states in response to the ruling.
Mexican federal court employees strike over proposed reform
The legislation was proposed by outgoing President Obrador, who leaves office in late September and would force judges to stand for election, also removing established barriers preventing inexperienced graduates from immediately becoming judges. While Obrador justifies the proposed reform as a way to combat corruption, opponents worry that it would remove the judiciary’s independence and open opportunities for clientelism and to reduce the executive branch’s accountability.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Las Vegas teenager indicted of planning IS-inspired lone wolf attack
The individual was arrested in November 2023 after a tip was sent to authorities about one of his posts on the online platform Element – an encrypted messaging app – where he announced the planning of an attack. The case continues to highlight the shift, also seen in Europe, towards increasingly younger lone wolves planning attacks. Las Vegas, due to its visibility, famous nightlife scene, and notoriety as a gambling hub, is likely a particularly desirable target for Islamist terrorists. IS unsuccessfully tried to claim that the perpetrator of the 2017 Las Vegas shooting had been affiliated with the group.
Leaked US Nuclear strategy document emphasises Chinese, Russian, North Korean threat
The document dates to March and highlights the rapidity in the growth and diversification of China’s nuclear weapons stockpile. The document also called for the establishment of a revised strategy called “Nuclear Employment Guidance”, to be reviewed every four years, which focuses on the possibility of coordinated challenges from Russia, North Korea and China. It is likely that the policy reflects the growing cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
Leader of the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) arrested in Mérida, Mexico
Adrian Miguel Jarquín, alias “El Chaparrito,” was arrested on 19 August after being a fugitive for two years. Jarquín is considered to be one of CJNG’s main leaders and is allegedly particularly involved in the group’s smuggling operations based in the port of Manzanillo, a key hub for the entry of narcotics in Mexico. In 2022, Jarquín was released from prison and allowed to continue his trial without precautionary detention and subsequently escaped. The arrest has a realistic possibility of decreasing CJNG’s operational capacity in Manzanillo and may create a power vacuum in the area, possibly favouring an increase in inter-gang violence.
Third prison break in a year in Haiti results in 12 prisoners killed
On 16 August, prisoners broke out of a detainment facility in the coastal town of Saint-Marc. The breakout was reportedly caused by an escalated internal protest. However, it is almost certain that gangs played a role in favouring the breakout, or at least in arming the detainees, 12 of whom died in firefights with intervening authorities. The case highlights the continuing security and policing vulnerabilities in Haiti, which remain likely still severe despite the arrival of hundreds of Kenyan troops as part of a UN-backed mission.
US sanctions former Haitian president for drug trafficking
The US government has imposed sanctions on Haiti’s former president, Michel Joseph Martelly, over allegations of drug trafficking. Martelly, who served as president from 2011 to 2016, has been accused of abusing his influence to exploit the current chaos in Haiti to profiteer from the narcotics trade. Martelly is thought to have established connections to multiple Haitian gangs that are involved in the smuggling of cocaine, much of which ends up in the US.
The US government has also accused him of being involved in money laundering at the behest of the gangs. Martelly is not the first Haitian senior politician to be accused of such criminal enterprises and their involvement has significantly contributed to the current destabilisation of Haiti. This endemic corruption at the highest levels of office continues to undermine governance and will make it difficult for the country to achieve stability.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Hurricane Ernesto makes landfall in Bermuda
The hurricane made direct landfall over Bermuda on 17 August, causing mass power outages. While the category 1 storm was projected to cause potentially deadly flooding and notable damage, the British Overseas Territory was relatively unscathed, with the Minister of National Security reporting no injuries or major incidents. This was highly likely conditioned by Bermuda’s strong hurricane preparation and resiliency measures.
Ernesto, which moved past Newfoundland, Canada on 20 August, eventually weakened into a post-tropical cyclone. The storm’s remnants caused unseasonably high rainfall and increased wind speeds in parts of the UK and is forecast to likely contribute towards a low-pressure system that will bring further poor weather in the UK next week.
Oil spill affects Morrocoy National Park in Venezuela
The oil spill originated from the El Palito refinery operated by the state-owned oil company PDVSA, which has important ties to the Venezuelan armed forces. It is highly likely that the spill will result in increased discontent with the Venezuelan authorities and may result in an increase in sabotage actions against PDVSA assets. The company’s operations have historically been characterised by extreme levels of corruption, and the delayed response to the spill may result in greater environmental impacts within the Golfe Triste area.
Brazil to establish action plan to tackle forest fires in Amazon and Pantanal regions
The Brazilian federal government has developed a joint action plan with state governors to tackle forest fires in both the Amazon and the Pantanal wetlands. The plan will involve establishing Inter-Federal Multi-Agency Fronts, which will unite agents from various public institutions to collaborate with state and local authorities in preventing new fire outbreaks. Forest fires, which have been exacerbated by human activity and climate change, have led to over two million acres being burned in the Pantanal in 2024.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Libya: Libyan central bank upheaval further inflames tensions amidst mass troop mobilisation
On 18 August, the head of the information technology department at the Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL), Musaab Muslamm, was abducted by an “unknown party”. This led to the crucial entity, responsible for holding the revenues from Libya’s vast oil reserves, temporarily shutting down operations.
The Government of National Unity (GNU), the Tripoli-based authority which contests sovereignty over Libya with the Libyan National Army (LNA), then unilaterally fired the central bank’s governor, Sadiq al-Kabir. Al-Kabir, a powerful figure who has led the bank since 2011 when Gaddafi was overthrown, rejected the decision and stated that he would continue in his role as normal. Muslamm was released on 19 August, leading to a resumption of operations at the CBL.
Additionally, the LNA engaged in fighting with armed Chadian groups near gold mines at the Chad border on 18-19 August, and National Oil Corporation (NOC) engineers claimed on 19 August that the Shahara oil field’s production has resumed limited operation following an earlier shutdown following significant LNA troop movements earlier in August.
Solace Global Assessment:
In the context of substantial LNA mobilisation and the movement of several LNA battalions to southwest Libya near the Algerian border and the Shahara oil field, the upheaval at the CBL will likely further inflame tensions in Libya. The GNU (formerly GNA) and LNA agreed to a ceasefire in 2020 after the LNA failed to take Tripoli, ending a six-year civil war. For the last four years, despite sporadic clashes between armed groups, Libya has enjoyed relative calm. In early August, LNA forces led by Saddam Haftar, the son of the LNA’s leader Khalifa Haftar, mobilised en-masse in Fezzan, southwestern Libya. This led to the Shahara oil field, Libya’s largest oilfield, being taken offline. Libya controls Africa’s largest oil reserves, and the flow of oil from Shahara is highly likely being instrumentalised by the LNA to exert pressure on Tripoli.
The LNA troop movements have multiple possible strategic objectives. The LNA claims that the mobilisation is aimed at border security, however, this is unlikely. It is likely that the LNA wish to secure Ghadames Airport, which holds vital strategic importance. Full control of Ghadames and its surroundings would allow the LNA to isolate the northwestern GNU territory centred around Tripoli from southern GNU forces, facilitate control of border crossings with Niger, Algeria and Tunisia, and ultimately fulfil the LNA desire to fully control the entire south of Libya, from east to west. The Ghadames crossing between Algeria and Libya is closed, despite agreements in recent years for its reopening. Algerian military forces have been placed on high alert as a result of the LNA buildup around Ghadames.
Concurrently, full control of southwestern Libya will allow the LNA to implement with greater effect a recently signed trade agreement with the junta in Niger, which highly likely involves the transfer of weapons for oil. The operations against Chadian armed groups are highly likely due to this trade deal, which currently relies on Nigerien weapons coming to Libya via Chad.
It is highly likely that recent August events have generated the most severe tensions in Libya since the 2020 ceasefire. In response to the recent tensions, the embassies of France, Germany, Italy, the UK and US have issued a joint statement expressing significant concern. On 13 August, the LNA-aligned House of Representatives unanimously approved a motion that the GNU is illegitimate and now out of power, which has no de facto legal consequence but gives the LNA a legitimising cause to renew hostilities. It is a realistic possibility that heavy fighting between the GNU and LNA will soon resume, focused on control around Ghadames.
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claim suicide attack, ceasefire talks continue
On 18 August, a botched suicide attack in Tel Aviv injured a civilian. Both Hamas and PIJ claimed responsibility for the action. The attack was the first Hamas suicide bombing since 2008, and the group has threatened more attacks. In Gaza, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) operations are ongoing, with fighting reported in Khan Yunis. On 20 August, IDF units retrieved the bodies of six hostages.
Ceasefire talks have continued in Cairo after last week’s round in Doha. The US and Israeli delegations have expressed some cautious optimism, especially after Egypt dropped its demands for a clear timeline for the IDF’s withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, and after Iranian officials stated that they will “delay” retaliation while negotiations are ongoing. Hamas representatives have rejected the latest round of talks, stating that Israel has advanced unacceptable conditions.
In northern Israel, Israeli forces launched airstrikes in the Bekaa Valley following a Hezbollah strike in Western Galilee which killed an IDF soldier.
Solace Global Assessment:
The suicide bombing carried out by Hamas is likely an important development in the conflict. Suicide bombings are almost universally condemned by the international community and a successful attack targeting civilians could weaken Hamas’ negotiating position and potentially influence Israel to withdraw from ceasefire talks. The length of the conflict and scale of the destruction are likely to contribute to increased radicalisation and provide Hamas with volunteers willing to conduct suicide attacks. This methodology may also indicate a decrease in Hamas’ combat capabilities and capacity to conduct more complex attacks outside of Gaza, with Israel recently claiming that Hamas’ Rafah Brigade has been completely defeated.
Cairo’s recent acceptance of Israel’s demand for a sustained IDF permanence at the Gaza-Egypt border likely represents an important diplomatic defeat for the Palestinian militant group. Allowing the IDF to remain in the Philadelphi Corridor will dislocate Hamas from its main facilitation route for lethal aid, reducing its ability to sustain combat operations and enforce its authority. Long-term, Hamas’ reduction in strength is likely to provide opportunities for alternative administrators in Gaza, such as the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Iran’s statement about waiting until the end of ceasefire talks to retaliate for Israel’s assassinations, or potentially refraining entirely if a deal is reached, is likely to further increase pressure on Hamas. Hamas’ likely reaction is to refuse to accept the current ceasefire conditions and to pressure Iran and its proxies to adopt a more aggressive stance towards Israel. Hamas will intend to set the conditions to persuade Israel to accept ceasefire terms that are more favourable to itself.
Israel and Iran: Tehran continues to indicate that major attack on Israel is imminent
Iran has continued to produce rhetoric and conduct actions indicating that it is planning on conducting a direct attack on Israel. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials have repeatedly signalled their intent to retaliate on Iranian state media but have stressed that it will happen “at the suitable time and place” and that Iran’s retaliation will be larger than the previous attack. Iran’s Permanent Mission to the UN has even suggested that Iran’s Axis of Resistance could conduct a ground offensive into Israel. Conversely, Iranian officials have also indicated that an attack could be delayed if progress is made in ceasefire negotiations.
Solace Global Assessment:
It is highly unlikely that Iran will sponsor a ground offensive into Israel, and this is the most likely trigger for a regional escalation that Tehran cannot afford. Such a scenario would involve Iran’s most capable proxy force, Hezbollah, invading Israel from the north. Currently, Hezbollah serves as one of Iran’s primary deterrents against Israel and Iran has spent decades facilitating lethal aid into Lebanon. A Hezbollah ground attack will almost certainly result in an IDF offensive into southern Lebanon, expanded air strikes and would significantly degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Tehran cannot afford this whilst it is still attempting to produce a nuclear deterrent, especially as Hamas has been severely degraded.
Iran’s most likely course of action is still a coordinated rocket, missile and drone strike with its proxy forces but has delayed retaliating for several reasons. Firstly, it does not want to jeopardise current ceasefire negotiations despite a high likelihood of collapse. Secondly, Iran is likely trying to exert psychological terror on the Israeli public. Lastly, Iran is delaying for reasons relating to planning and logistics. Iran is attempting to reassert its deterrent but without escalating. This will demand a carefully planned attack that penetrates Israeli air defence, demonstrating Iran’s ability to directly attack Israel, but without resulting in heavy civilian casualties. However, the delay has allowed the US to enhance its force posture in the region, likely forcing Tehran to reassess the nature and timing of an attack. Should Iran decide that a direct attack on Israel without escalating is too hard to achieve, it may seek to target Israeli interests via alternative means. This could include attacks on Israeli “secret bases” in third countries like Iraq, or the assassination of Israeli
Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden: Houthi anti-merchant shipping attacks intensify after a week of inactivity
After a week-long lull in Houthi attacks against merchant shipping, the Houthis attacked two vessels in one day on 21 August. The first was against the Greek-flagged oil tanker SOUNION (IMO: 9312145), 77 nautical miles west of al-Hudaydah, Yemen. Initially, two skiffs approached the merchant vessel, resulting in a brief exchange of small arms fire. Later, three unidentified projectiles struck the vessel, causing a fire onboard and disabling the engine. The vessel was abandoned on 22 August and is now adrift.
Secondly, the Houthis attacked the Panama-flagged bulk carrier SW NORTH WIND I (IMO: 9514004), 57 nautical miles south of Aden, Yemen. The vessel reported a total of five explosions in close proximity to the vessel, with no damage reported. Then, on 22 August, the vessel came under renewed attack west of al-Hudaydah, Yemen. Whilst being followed by two skiffs, an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) struck the vessel on its portside beam and detonated, resulting in minor damage without breaching the hull.
Solace Global Assessment:
The SW NORTH WIND I’s security team failed to destroy the USV with small arms fire, highly likely attempting to replicate the PUMBA’s successful deployment of this countermeasure on 20 July when small arms fire ostensibly detonated a Houthi USV before it could make contact. It is likely that this countermeasure will not be consistently replicable, due to the accuracy and luck required.
Commonalities between these two new incidents highlight the likely increasing role of skiffs in carrying out Houthi intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) to fix and track merchant vessels to increase the accuracy of subsequent attacks. Houthi ISR capabilities have likely been significantly degraded due to merchant vessels disabling their automatic identification systems (AIS) broadcasts, and the withdrawal of the Iranian spy ship BEHSHAD in April.
The persistence of these Houthi attacks, particularly on the SW NORTH WIND I, which was separately attacked over multiple days, is also notable, likely suggesting that the Houthis are increasingly concentrating force against individual target vessels. These attacks also likely point towards the increasingly layered nature of Houthi anti-vessel operations which now integrate skiffs conducting ISR and armed with RPGs, anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and USVs.
It is likely that the successful disabling of the SOUNION will embolden the Houthis to increase their rate of vessel attacks in the coming weeks, reflecting earlier patterns.
Kenya: Government plans to reintroduce elements of controversial tax bill
The Kenyan government has announced plans to reintroduce certain tax measures that had been previously scrapped on 26 June in response to deadly protests. The finance minister, John Mbadi, stated that not all taxes will return. However, certain measures, including an eco-levy on most goods, are necessary to fund essential government expenditures such as teachers’ wages. On 20 August, the Supreme Court of Kenya overruled an appeal that declared the finance bill unconstitutional which will pave the way for the government to introduce elements of the contentious tax bill.
Solace Global Assessment:
The reintroduction of the tax bill, even if limited, will likely reignite civil unrest across the country with a high likelihood of violent incidents. Previous civil unrest resulted in the deaths of at least 50 people, hundreds of arrests and widespread disruption. Critics of the bill are already suggesting that it will target basic goods that will increase the cost of living, with the original bill targeting goods like bread, cooking oil and other commodities.
Moreover, the protests have primarily been youth-led, many of whom are unemployed and capable of quickly organising protests via social media. After repealing the original tax bill, President Ruto fired much of his cabinet but has remained in power despite widespread calls demanding his resignation. Many Kenyans likely hold him personally responsible for the deadly protests and for failing to address many of the underlying issues such as the cost of living, unemployment and corruption.
Future demonstrations are likely to take on a distinct anti-Ruto character which could unify and energise various factions that oppose his rule, leading to larger and more sustained protests. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is backing some form of economic reform programme in Kenya, which is being described as necessary to secure more funding. This indicates that the Ruto administration is under external pressure and has no option but to reintroduce elements of the controversial tax bill.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Anti-Islam protests scheduled for 24 August in Sweden
Anti-Islam protests have been organised in Stockholm, Gothenburg, Orebo and Kristianstad for the 24 August. Heightened security measures will be in place and there is a high likelihood that the demonstrations will attract counter-protests, potentially leading to incidents of violence.
French far-left leader threatens Macron with impeachment, causes rifts in coalition
Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the far-left populist part France Unbowed (LFI) reiterated appeals to President Macron to appoint his coalition’s candidate, Lucie Castets, as the country’s new prime minister. The appeal also contained a threat of starting an impeachment procedure if Macron does not comply with LFI’s demands. Melenchon’s appeal was rejected by the other parties of the coalition, including the Socialists (PS). LFI activists have called for civil unrest if Castets is not selected, and there is a high likelihood that, if the left-wing coalition cracks due to disagreements over relations with Macron’s executive, LFI-linked activists will seek to stage large and disruptive demonstrations to force a decision, possibly resulting in violence and vandalism.
Anarchist activists claim vandalism of Northvolt offices in Hamburg, Germany
As part of an ongoing campaign of direct action by anarchist against the building of the North Bothnia Line railway project in Sweden, anarchists claimed they vandalised the Northvolt offices in Hamburg on 19 August. The protestors claim they injected butyric acid through the office door and then glued the doors. Butyric acid, made from rancid butter, has historically been used by anti-whaling activists due to its highly unpleasant odour.
The North Bothnia Line is contentious due to its planned location in the indigenous Sami people’s area of northern Sweden. Earlier on 9 August, activists vandalised an Implenia AG office in Vienna, Austria using spray paint. Both Northvolt and Implenia AG are involved in the North Bothnia project.
The transnational nature of this direct-action campaign highly likely indicates a concerted and well-organised effort by multiple different anarchist groups cooperating across national borders. It is likely that companies associated with the North Bothnia project will continue to be targeted in the coming weeks.
Multiple Neo-Nazi demonstrations in Saxony
On 17 August, around 400 Neo-Nazi activists tried to disrupt an LGBTQ event in Leipzig, in the German state of Saxony. On 10 August, a crowd of approximately 700 activists marched through the town of Bautzen, also in Saxony.
The groups that are reported to be associated with the protests in Saxony include “Deutsche Jugend Voran” (DJV, a name taken from a division of the Hitler Youth), Jung und Stark (JS), as well as a banned far-right group known as “Division 45”. Saxony remains a stronghold of far-right groups in Germany, and statistics on right-wing violence in Saxony for 2023 report an approximately 20 per cent increase compared to 2022.
In Germany, as in other Western European states, a trend can be observed of far-right groups seeking greater territorial control in areas where they already have a footprint, while staging more symbolic demonstrations in cities that have a higher visibility. Areas and cities including Lyon in France, Verona and Rome in Italy, and Madrid in Spain have a particularly high activity from local far-right groups.
Demonstrations scheduled in Berlin and for 24 August
The scheduled demonstrations, which will take place in front of the Chancellery, follow the closure of the Islamisches Zentrum Hamburg (IZH). IZH was a Shia Muslim centre in Hamburg which authorities closed over deep ties to the regime in Iran. Counter-demonstrations are also scheduled to take place. Due to the nature of the event, and the overlap with the demonstrations in Sweden (see beginning of section), there is a realistic possibility of disorders and violence breaking out.
Belarus deploys a third of its army to Ukrainian border
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that the deployment is in response to increased Ukrainian activity at the border, a claim that appears highly likely unsubstantiated. It is almost certain that the deployment of Belarusian troops near the border is meant to warn Kyiv’s Western allies against providing further help to Ukraine – including by relaxing constraints on the use of Western-procured munitions in Russia – by threatening regional escalation of the conflict.
Ukraine bans Russia-affiliated religious organisations, including the Orthodox Church
The draft law approved by the parliament prohibits the religious activities of groups associated with Russia. While the Russian government has successfully coopted the Russian Orthodox Church as an instrument of propaganda and legitimisation of its offensive in Ukraine, the Moscow Patriarchate continues to have significant influence among the Russian minorities of Ukraine. The decision will likely spark domestic unrest in Ukraine, and Moscow will leverage the development to launch information operations targeting Orthodox Christians in Europe, the Middle East and North America.
Suspected Kenyan serial killer escapes from police station
On 20 August, the individual, who is allegedly responsible for dozens of murders, escaped from a police facility in Nairobi alongside 12 Eritrean nationals. The high domestic media profile of the case makes this police failure particularly significant, and it will likely contribute to inflaming already high anti-government and anti-police sentiment.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
CIA Director in Bosnia due to secessionist concerns
CIA Director William Burns visited Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina on 20 August to address concerns over the “worrying secessionist rhetoric and actions” from Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska, led by pro-Russian President Milorad Dodik. Dodik has refused to adhere to Western sanctions on Russia and has threatened secession for decades. A separate conflict in Europe would almost certainly play into the Kremlin’s hands by diverting attention and resources from Ukraine. Dodik has visited Russia multiple times and in recent visits, Russia has used the Republika Srpska’s flag rather than that of Bosnia-Herzegovina, suggesting Moscow’s support for its secession.
Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) ambushes Red Cross convoy in Niger
The targeted attack took place in the region of Diffa and killed 14 of which at least eight were Red Cross staff. ISWAP and other branches of the Islamic State (IS) commonly attack humanitarian organisations as part of their strategy to force the local populations to become reliant on them for welfare. ISWAP has recently increased its operations in Niger and, although it remains relatively weaker than Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin, it has multiplied efforts to gain a territorial presence, by imposing “taxes” on controlled villages and conducting da’wah (proselytising) activities.
Sudanese military to send a delegation to Cairo discussions
After the Transitional Sovereign Council, the ruling government in Sudan on behalf of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), did not attend US-led peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, they have stated they will send a delegation to Cairo to have discussions with US and Egyptian officials. The SAF’s absence from the Geneva talks had generated major doubts about the prospects for a peace settlement to the Sudanese Civil War between the SAF and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has now been ongoing for 16 months.
The delegation to Cairo, however, likely indicates that the SAF is considering a willingness to participate in future negotiations should certain conditions be met. The main points of contention raised by SAF officials have been the lack of implementation of the Jeddah agreement, which entailed RSF forces withdrawing from civilian areas, and the United Arab Emirates’ presence at the talks, who have highly likely supported the RSF.
As recently as 16 August, RSF forces reportedly attacked several villages, according to local media. In recent months, the momentum of the civil war has been on the most part favourable to the RSF, and it is likely that continuing RSF advances have coerced the SAF leadership to not rule out future peace negotiations.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Large fires in Madeira, Portugal
The fires have consumed 5000 hectares by 19 August, or approximately 5 per cent of the island’s total surface area. Due to dry and hot weather conditions, fires on the island have spread rapidly and posed extreme difficulties to firefighters, with authorities stating that they expect the fires to subside “after running out of fuel”. Increasingly common and severe fires are likely to continue having severe economic impacts on residents and businesses in southern European maritime tourist destinations.
First Polio case identified in the Gaza Strip after 25 years
The disease is particularly dangerous for children under five. It spreads via aerosol, faeces or contamination, and progressively affects the nervous system causing paralysis. Currently, much of the sewage disposal infrastructure in the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, favouring the accumulation of waste in areas that are extremely densely populated. The WHO and other international organisations have called for a vaccination campaign to begin in late August. However, this is highly likely dependent on the approval of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Asia–Pacific
Pakistan: State crackdown on information space
For weeks, the internet in Pakistan has been extremely slow, with the government blaming the high number of domestic users for overburdening domestic capacity. Activist groups have instead increasingly raised warnings of a growing threat of government efforts to build a “firewall” to separate Pakistan from global online information spaces, thus imitating China and other states in Asia. Since the 2023 riots linked with former Prime Minister Imran Khan last year, the Pakistani government has increasingly curtailed access to social media platforms. Earlier this year, a new law allowed the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) a much greater reach in intercepting private citizens’ communications.
Solace Global Assessment:
The growing efforts by the Pakistani government to curtail the local information space while granting ISI greater reach are highly likely reflections of self-perceived growing instability. Outside of its long-standing socioeconomic issues, Pakistan’s security environment is deteriorating due to a greater traction of regionalist movements – such as the Baluch independence movement – and ongoing tensions with neighbours in India and Afghanistan, the latter continuing to provide a safe haven for Violent Extremist Organisations (VEOs).
Moreover, the continuing popular support for Khan, as well as the anti-foreigner sentiments linked with growing Chinese operations in the country, likely represent important worries for Islamabad. Faced with these popular and regionalist movements, the Pakistani government may seek to follow the Chinese lead in building a highly controlled information space. In doing so, however, Islamabad is likely to encounter a fundamental obstacle in its inability to provide indigenous online alternatives, including an independent digital infrastructure, capable of meeting public demand.
In turn, it may therefore be forced to rely on China-sourced assets and platforms to offset some of the economic costs, thus contributing to a regionalisation of Asia’s information spaces. A growing opacification of the Pakistani information space is highly likely to have extremely adverse consequences for humanitarian operators in the country. A decreased flow of information, combined with Pakistan’s extremely precarious security situation, may multiply the risks of humanitarian actors operating in at-risk regions, for instance by decreasing their capacity to respond to security incidents in a timely manner.
Indonesia: Huge demonstrations over government attempt to reverse Constitutional Court decision
On 22 August, tens of thousands of protestors amassed in the former capital, Jakarta, as well as other major cities, including Padang, Bandung, Surabaya, Makassar, Yogyakarta and multiple other locations. Protestors attempt to storm the Indonesian parliament, and the House of Representatives, forcing the police to use tear gas and water cannons to disperse crowds. The protests were triggered by parliament’s decision to overturn a Constitutional Court ruling which reduced the threshold for local legislative seats needed by parties to field candidates for regional elections. Parliament postponed the amendments in response to the unrest.
Solace Global Assessment:
The proposed law change involved raising the threshold for parties to nominate candidates in regional elections. Previously, the Constitutional Court had lowered this threshold to below 10 per cent from the original 20 per cent. The Constitutional Court’s original ruling would have effectively allowed smaller parties or coalitions with fewer seats in local parliaments to field more candidates at the regional level. The ruling government, which is dominated by supporters of the outgoing President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), would have seen this as a mechanism to increase the influence of the opposition. The change opened the door for opposition figures like Anies Baswedan, a critic of the government, to run for influential positions such as the Jakarta governor.
Parliament’s decision to reverse this change has almost certainly been seen as a manoeuvre to maintain its power and reduce the voice of the opposition. Moreover, it has likely sparked fears over a constitutional crisis between the executive and the judicial branches, by eroding the checks and balances in Indonesia’s democratic system. It is also part of a broader strategy by Jokowi and his supporters to consolidate power, which has led to accusations of authoritarianism, corruption, and nepotism. These moves have galvanised activists, students and even celebrities against the government, with protests rapidly mobilised on social media.
Whilst the government has responded by postponing its amendment, it is currently unclear whether parliament will reconvene before the start of regional elections on 27 August. If parliament attempts to hastily pass the law before the local elections, it is almost certain widespread and sometimes violent protests will erupt across the country.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Taliban ban UN special rapporteur from entering Afghanistan
The Taliban have barred the UN-appointed special rapporteur Richard Bennett from entering Afghanistan, after accusing the UN of spreading propaganda. Bennett, appointed in 2022 to monitor Afghanistan’s human rights record, has been critical of the Taliban’s treatment of women and girls. The Taliban’s decision to deny Bennett a visa reflects their growing resistance to international scrutiny, particularly concerning human rights. This move could further isolate Afghanistan diplomatically and complicate efforts to address human rights violations, especially against women, under Taliban rule.
Protesters attempt to storm Pakistan’s Supreme Court over blasphemy ruling
On 20 August, thousands of protestors attempted to storm Pakistan’s Supreme Court in Islamabad over a ruling in a blasphemy case, forcing the police to use crowd dispersal methods like tear gas. The protest was organised over the granting of bail to Mubarak Sani. Sani had been accused of blasphemy in 2019 for distributing pamphlets advocating for his Ahmadiyya religious beliefs- a messianic Islamic movement often persecuted by the Sunni majority. The incident likely reflects the sensitivities of blasphemy laws in the country, which can often lead to huge and sometimes violent demonstrations.
Pakistani opposition schedules nationwide strike for 28 August
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party has called for a nationwide shutdown strike on 28 August to protest alleged misgovernance, economic issues, rising electricity prices, and endemic load shedding. The protests are likely to only cause moderate disruption, and the authorities are likely to issue Section 144 orders in areas with a high turnout.
India PM Modi to visit Ukraine and Poland
The diplomatic visits will take place starting on 21 August. Modi’s recent visit to Russia attracted considerable criticism from Western observers, and the Indian leader likely sees meeting Zelensky as an opportunity to outwardly demonstrate the continued foreign policy “non-alignment” espoused by India. At the same time, the visit to Poland may offer an opportunity to further India-EU talks, especially in crucial strategic areas such as technology-sharing and security cooperation.
India doctors resume work but protests continue
After a trainee doctor was raped and killed by a hospital security guard in Kolkata, widespread doctor and nurse strikes paralysed much of India’s healthcare system. This resulted in the suspension of most non-emergency procedures and major protests across the country. After reassurances from India’s Supreme Court to improve safety measures at hospitals, doctors have resumed work. However, some protests are still ongoing and there are backlogs within India’s healthcare system after 11 days of strikes.
Thai opposition criticises Constitutional Court and vows to continue
The former leader of the recently dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP), Pita Limjaroenrat, who has been banned from Thai politics for a decade has vowed to continue his agenda and demanded that Thailand reform its judiciary. MFP’s dissolution was followed by the Constitutional Court removing the then prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, within the same week and resulted in 134 Thai academics and legal experts releasing a statement suggesting that the court had overstepped its jurisdiction and damaged the public’s trust.
Thailand’s new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of controversial magnate Thaksin Shinawatra, was then sworn in on 18 August. Whilst her premiership may partially placate the reformist camp, the Shinawatra family’s continued domination of Thai politics will likely aggravate the conservative establishment.
Loyalist to outgoing Indonesian president appointed leader of Golkar party
On 21 August, the Golkar party appointed Bahlil Lahadalia as its leader. Bahlil is a loyalist to outgoing president Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi. Jokowi has consistently held high approval ratings but is scheduled to leave office in October 2024 due to presidential term limits.
It is likely that Jokowi has attempted to implement a political dynasty, and a Constitutional Court ruling in 2023, chaired by Jokowi’s brother-in-law, lowered minimum age limits which will allow Jokowi’s eldest son to become the vice-president in October. Efforts to make his youngest son the deputy governor of Central Java, however, have been thwarted by a 21 August Constitutional Court decision to not change minimum age limits for regional elections. The appointment of Bahlil will highly likely contribute towards Jokowi maintaining a high degree of political influence once he leaves office.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Pakistan imposes Section 144 Punjab due to terror threat
On 21 August, Pakistani authorities implemented Section 144 in the Punjab province which bans all public gatherings and protests. The order will last until 24 August and has been imposed over the threat of terrorism. However, Section 144 is often used to deny public assembly and stifle the opposition and has likely been implemented to disrupt rallies organised by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
Chinese and Philippine vessels collide in disputed South China Sea
China and the Philippines have traded accusations after vessels from their respective coast guards were involved in a collision near the disputed Shabina Shoal in the South China Sea. Beijing has suggested that the Philippines vessel purposefully collided with the Chinese vessel. Manila has accused the Chinese Coast Guard of aggressive manoeuvres, a tactic it has become notorious when reinforcing its maritime claims. The repeated confrontations threaten to further escalate tensions in the South China Sea, potentially drawing in external powers like the US which has recently increased defence cooperation with the Philippines.
Indonesia to host major multi-national military exercise
Indonesia’s Super Garuda Shield 2024, starting on 26 August, will involve joint military exercises with at least 19 countries, including the US, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Originally launched in 2009, this annual exercise aims to “safeguard a free and open Indo-Pacific region” and has become one of the largest multinational military exercises in the area, with significant US participation. While China likely perceives the exercise as a challenge to its regional influence, Indonesia and China maintain friendly relations and have conducted joint military exercises. However, a recent treaty signed between Australia and Indonesia may indicate a gradual shift away from non-alignment.
Australia and Indonesia sign treaty-level defence agreement
On 20 August, Australia and Indonesia signed a treaty-level defence cooperation agreement which allows their militaries to operate in each other’s countries. This agreement likely signals a thawing of relations over Australia’s historic support for East Timor and potentially a strategic shift by Indonesia away from non-alignment. The agreement, which follows from the AUKUS alliance, will likely be interpreted by China as yet another development designed by the West to counterbalance its influence in the Indo-Pacific. Canberra may seek to develop further bi-lateral defence relationships or strengthen existing ones as it aims to contain an increasingly assertive China.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
At least nine Bangladesh districts at risk of major flooding
Bangladesh’s Ministry of Water Resources has issued emergency flood notices for the districts of Feni, Sunamganj, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Comilla, Noakhali, Chittagong, Laxmipur and Khagrachari. 12 rivers are currently above the danger line due to heavy rains further north in India. Increased rainfall is likely to result in widespread flooding that will impact millions of people.
Thailand identifies first case of new mpox strain
Authorities in Thailand have reported that they have identified the first case of the new strain of mpox, Clade 1b, in the country. The case involves a European man working in an unnamed African country where there is an ongoing outbreak. Thailand’s Department of Disease Control has tracked down over 40 people who are thought to have been in contact with the patient, who will now be monitored for 21 days. However, the patient flew to Thailand via a Middle Eastern country and a thorough contact trace is highly unlikely.
Landslide kills several in Thai tourist resort Phuket
At least eight people have been killed in the popular tourist resort of Phuket after heavy rain triggered a landslide which crashed into a luxury villa. Rescue efforts are ongoing, with as many as 50 buildings affected by the landslide and multiple people assessed as currently trapped. Monsoon rains have battered much of Thailand with further landslides highly likely.
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Executive Summary
- The African CDC has declared the current Mpox outbreak as a continent-wide emergency, with early indications suggesting it is likely to spread further afield.
- Iran is likely delaying its attack on Israel until the conclusion of ceasefire talks and for issues relating to planning, coordination, logistics and operational surprise.
- Baloch separatists intensify attacks in western Pakistan, likely to undermine the central government during Independence Day celebrations.
- There is a realistic possibility that the Thai Constitutional Court’s dismissal of the prime minister following the recent dissolution of the Move Forward Party will trigger unrest in Thailand.
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AMER
Panama: Migrant repatriation flights from Panama to start this month.
Venezuela: Opposition calls for global protests.
EMEA
Denmark and Sweden: Relations strained over cross-border gang activity
Middle East: Ceasefire talks underway as Iran continues to promise to retaliate
Africa-wide: Africa CDC declares Mpox continent-wide emergency
APAC
Pakistan: Baloch militants conduct wave of attacks in western Pakistan
Myanmar: Chinese foreign minister visits to offer support for elections
Thailand: Court dismisses prime minister and Shinawatra nominated
North, Central and South America
Panama: Migrant repatriation flights from Panama to start this month
US President Joe Biden stated on 14 August that the government of Panama is planning to start repatriating migrants that cross into the country via the southern Darien Gap, a tract of extremely dense jungle which is unavoidable for South American migrants seeking to reach the US via land.
The first major policy undertaken by the new government of Panama, led by President Jose Raul Mulino, was to strike a deal with the US, whereby Panama would carry out repatriations on US-funded flights. More than 500,000 migrants crossed the Darien Gap in 2023.
Solace Global Assessment:
For Washington, the deal with Panama is part of a broader effort to decrease land-based flows of migrants via Central America, which is increasingly being used by migrants from other parts of the world. US diplomats are also trying to strike a deal with Costa Rica, which is expected to be similar to the one with Panama. By pushing for multiple deals with friendly regional governments, US officials are highly likely trying to put in place a stronger deterrent to migrants, while simultaneously accounting for border control failures.
The Darien Gap remains an extremely dangerous stretch of land, with extremely little infrastructure, that is for the most part controlled by organised Colombian gangs, such as the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces. This, alongside widespread corruption at the Colombia-Panama border, means that efforts to police the gap will likely only be partially successful even with increased funding and manpower. Still, increased border controls may make the land-based route less attractive.
The alternative, which is considerably more expensive and risky, is likely to be a sea-based route between the Colombian island of San Andrés and the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua. The maritime route to Nicaragua is also likely to increase in attractiveness if a second deal with Costa Rica is approved, as it would bypass both countries.
An increase in maritime migration is likely to pose further risks. First, the crossings from San Andrés are often attempted on small vessels, which often capsize leading to mass drownings. Smugglers operating the crossings often overload the boats, greatly increasing the chance of sinking, and a growing volume of departures from San Andrés may result in a proportional increase in the number of deaths.
Second, the maritime route is assessed to cost each migrant more than three times as much as the Darien Gap route, and therefore is likely to further increase the chances of migrants being exploited by traffickers, potentially leading to increased rates of forced labour, sexual abuse, debt bondage and other forms of exploitation.
Venezuela: Venezuelan opposition calls for global protests
Edmundo Gonzalez, Maria Corina Machado, and the other leaders of the Venezuelan opposition have issued a call for global protests to take place on 17 August. The announcement comes weeks after the results of the Venezuelan elections were published, granting a third term to President Maduro. The results – which have been contested by domestic and international observers – caused almost immediate protests, which were met with violent repression by authorities, the clampdown being nicknamed “Operation Knock Knock” by regime supporters.
As of the time of writing, more than 1300 people have been arrested in Venezuela, and the opposition leaders, who recently have become objects of a criminal investigation, remain in hiding.
Solace Global Assessment:
The announcement is likely a reflection of the worsening domestic position of the opposition, following the Maduro regime’s success in quashing the protests that broke out after the electoral results were announced. Despite the large international support, the opposition has likely failed to gain traction with the military and other government-backed militia which constitute the backbone of the regime’s security apparatus.
The call for protests is likely to result in large-scale disruptions in countries that have a large Venezuelan diaspora. Notable demonstrations are likely to take place in Colombia, especially in Bogota, where large pro-opposition protests already occurred on 3 August. Other likely hotspots for demonstrations include the United States, particularly the state of Florida, where most of the US Venezuelan diaspora is concentrated, and in Spain where there are almost 500,000 Venezuelans.
There is a realistic possibility that smaller demonstrations will occur within liberal democracies and will be staged outside Venezuelan diplomatic missions. There is a high likelihood that actors friendly to the Maduro regime will carry out actions meant to undermine or disrupt the protests – for instance deploying agitators or provoking police intervention – or launch information operations to discredit the opposition.
Inside Venezuela, the regime will highly likely use the protests as a pretext to accuse the opposition of being backed by foreign powers. This will take the form of increased nationalistic messaging meant to provoke a rally around the flag effect, and possibly executive measures meant to further curtail the space for dissent. Importantly, accusations of foreign collaboration and meddling may be used by the regime to further restrict the activities of foreign NGOs in the country.
In January, the Venezuelan parliament began discussing a law that restricts NGOs’ ability to receive funds, imposing a series of bureaucratic hurdles that are almost certainly meant to disrupt their operations.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Large-scale rail strikes threaten Canadian exports
Canada’s two largest railway companies, Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO), could simultaneously stop operations due to a deadlock between them and the Teamsters labour union over scheduling and wages. The rail companies have threatened to lock their employees out of their workplaces on 22 August if a deal is not reached.
A similar stoppage was prevented earlier in the year following government intervention, and this earlier resolution has ignited current calls by grain shippers and other industry groups for the government to intervene again. Annually, Canada’s railways transport around CAD 380 billion worth of goods. Consequently, a halt would almost certainly cause losses of tens of millions of dollars and spillover effects across Canadian markets.
Moreover, the stoppage could have an adverse impact on Canada’s trade relationship with the USA, as 75 per cent of Canada’s goods exports head south of the border. Most US cereal imports originate from Canada, and strike-driven supply chain disruptions are likely to impact market prices in the US.
US Democratic Convention to be held in Chicago
On 19 August, the Democratic Party will hold its National Convention in Chicago where it will officially unveil Vice President Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate. The convention is anticipated to attract 50,000 supporters and will include high-profile figures such as former president, Barack Obama and the Clintons.
Strict security measures will be in place, especially after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, and police have warned that they will not tolerate any rioting or major demonstrations, with pro-Palestinian protests likely to exploit the publicity of the event for their movement.
Peruvian government pass law preventing prosecution for crimes against humanity.
The legislation prevents prosecutions of alleged crimes committed prior to 2002. The measure is almost certainly meant to appease senior military officials and former President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was allegedly implicated in the use of death squads to quash the Shining Path – the rebel Communist Party of Peru – in the 1990s. The measure is likely to result in protests and widespread international condemnation.
Brazil plans to strengthen ties with China.
The President of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has said he will discuss a “long-term strategic partnership” when he meets with the President of China, Xi Jinping, after the G20 leaders’ summit in November. Lula has confirmed that he doesn’t want Brazil’s relationship with the USA to be jeopardised due to new links with China, but is eager to strengthen the economy and improve diplomatic ties.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Trump campaign hacked
On 10 August, former US President Donald Trump’s staff said that their campaign had been targeted by hackers, leading to insider documents being leaked to the press. The campaign accused “foreign sources hostile to the United States” of carrying out the attack. Although Iran was not named directly, it is clear that, following reports that a plot to assassinate Trump was launched by Tehran, the Shia regime is likely the prime suspect.
Mass shooting in Clarendon, Jamaica
On 12 August, eight people were killed and eleven injured after a mass shooting in the Clarendon area of Jamaica. Jamaica’s prime minister has urged anyone with information to come forward and a national security council meeting was convened on 13 August. The incident is likely related to an ongoing feud between rival gangs but has raised concerns over a bloody gang war in the area.
Colombian President Petro claims rebel plot to assassinate him
According to the president, Ivan Mordisco, the commander of the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), a breakaway group of the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), had hired a drug trafficking group to carry out the targeted assassination. While no independent verification of the claims was released, the case highlights the continuing decrease of relations between the government and units of the EMC, after a ceasefire between the two broke down in July due to ongoing violence.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Canada’s first “State of Wildfires” report underscores climate change impact
The report is the first of a planned series covering yearly wildfires globally. The report found that, while the total number of acres burned in 2023-2024 was slightly below the average of previous seasons, wildfire-related carbon emissions increased by 16 per cent. This increase was almost certainly due to the severe wildfires in Canada, whose Boreal forests emit larger quantities of stored carbon when burned.
The report also assesses that the probability of “extreme fire seasons” has increased “significantly” due to anthropogenic climate change, with regions such as Canada and Amazonia particularly affected.
Hurricane Ernesto impacts Caribbean and heads towards Bermuda
Hurricane Ernesto formed in the Atlantic Ocean 300 miles east of Antigua on 5 August. The hurricane passed over Antigua and the Leeward islands, causing 4-6 inches of rain, before clearing the islands on Tuesday morning and heading towards Puerto Rico, where around half of the population was without power. Furthermore, more than half a foot of rain had fallen, interrupting water filtration processes, leaving 120,000 water customers without drinking water.
The hurricane hit the Virgin Islands leading to 28,000 people left without power. Ernesto changed course northwards and is currently heading towards Bermuda. Hurricane warnings have been issued for Bermuda, with warnings that it could become a Category 3 storm by the time it gets to the island. Residents of Bermuda are being urged to prepare for the worst.
The storm is not expected to pass over mainland USA, but warnings of life-threatening surf and rip currents on the east coast have been issued as far north as Canada.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Denmark and Sweden: Denmark pressures Sweden in response to cross-border gang activity
Denmark has placed pressure on Sweden to restrain the growing cross-border gang violence, following the arrest and charging of 10 Swedes in the country for crimes including attempted murder and weapon possession. In recent years, policing cooperation between Nordic countries has increased. The Danish government has particularly called for joint efforts to strengthen border controls with Sweden to tackle the issue.
Solace Global Assessment:
More than half of the individuals arrested in Denmark are minors. This almost certainly underscores the established practice by Denmark and Sweden-based gangs to employ underage individuals to carry out violent and drug-related offences. Minors are less likely to receive harsh jail sentences and are more difficult to detect and track when conducting cross-border operations. Moreover, minors are likely more vulnerable to being groomed by gang members. Sweden-based gangs are known to target vulnerable children, at times breaking them out of youth homes with promises of desirable and status-enhancing rewards, such as clothes, money, and drugs.
The Danish government has increasingly sought to secure its borders, and the attempts to crack down on cross-border gang operations are likely a reflection of a broader approach meant to avoid the spillover of crime trends within Danish borders. There is a realistic possibility that the implementation of stricter measures by Danish officials will result in domestic civil unrest, as well as have diplomatic consequences within the EU. At the same time, an internationalisation of the gang networks of Sweden could affect Sweden’s relations with its European neighbours.
Finally, the use of minors by gangs may increase rates of radicalisation. While still not conclusive, recent data seems to show that, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the average age of “lone wolves” in Europe has decreased, with more than a dozen individuals under 20 years of age arrested in connection with terrorist plots in Europe in 2024 alone. As gang and extremist networks often overlap, with multiple lone wolves having previously engaged in gang-related activity, the greater participation of minors in organised crime groups may result in more radicalisation. As these groups tend to have access to firearms and other weapons, there is a realistic possibility that this trend could lead to more severe or sophisticated attacks.
Middle East: Iran continues to threaten Israel with major attack
Iran has rejected recent calls for restraint from several Western nations regarding a retaliatory attack on Israel for the assassination of Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, has stated that Iran must respond and that it would face “divine wrath” for failing to do so, a sentiment which has been echoed across Iranian media.
The US has continued to enhance its force posture in the region by accelerating the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) which is equipped with F-35C fighter jets, and publicly declaring that it has deployed a nuclear-powered guided missile submarine (SSGN) to the region. Hezbollah has continued its drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel and the Golan Heights with multiple attacks a day. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has mobilised more forces in northern Israel near the Lebanon border and IDF have conducted military exercises at the Haifa Naval Base to simulate defence and attack scenarios in northern Israel, including the maritime space.
Ceasefire talks in Doha, Qatar scheduled for 15 August are set to continue through to at least 16 August. Ceasefire talks have included US, Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli officials but have not included Hamas who have refused to attend on the grounds that Israel is deceiving to prolong the war and even expand it to a regional conflict.
Solace Global Assessment:
The most likely course of action for Iran is a layered drone, missile and rocket attack coordinated with its proxy forces throughout the Middle East. However, Iran has likely delayed its attack for numerous reasons. Firstly, Tehran will want to observe how successful the current ceasefire talks are, with Hezbollah also indicating that a ceasefire could delay or even cancel its retaliation for the assassination of one of its senior commanders. However, with Hamas refusing to attend, ceasefire talks are unlikely to produce any significant progress.
Moreover, accepting a ceasefire will not be tolerated by the more extreme elements of Netanyahu’s coalition, with far-right leader Ben Gvir threatening to leave the coalition if a ceasefire is agreed upon before the destruction of Hamas, an unlikely and hard-to-qualify situation. Iran has likely been forced to delay due to issues regarding logistics, planning and coordination, especially if it has to supply proxy forces throughout the region. The delay will also have a psychological effect on Israeli citizens and will likely help Iran achieve some degree of operational surprise, increasing its chances of penetrating Israeli air defence.
Lastly, Iran is set to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russia may be pressuring Iran to delay until it secures delivery of these and withdraws its personnel from Iran who are currently training on these systems. Iran’s delay has enabled the US increase to its force posture in the region, which may influence the scale of Iran’s expected attack. The CSG, which involves escorting destroyers, combined with the SSGN, has not only increased the US air defence capability in the region but also hugely increased its air and sea-launched cruise missile capability in the region. This is likely to influence Tehran’s decision-making process and serve as a deterrent to a major escalation.
There is a realistic possibility that Israel’s enhanced force posture in the north is shaping activity for a future offensive into southern Lebanon. This course of action will likely be triggered by mass casualties from a Hezbollah attack, with the IDF’s most probable limit of advance the Litani River not to provoke hostilities with wider Lebanese society. However, this would likely be supported by expanded air strikes in northern and central Lebanon against Hezbollah high-value targets.
Africa-wide: Africa CDC declares Mpox outbreak a continent-wide public health emergency
The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has declared the “monkeypox” or “Mpox” outbreak a public health emergency across the continent, particularly due to its severe impact on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Limited reporting indicates that since January, Africa has recorded at least 38, 465 Mpox cases and almost 1,500 deaths.
The continent-wide warning has been issued in response to the Clade Ib strain, a subtype of the virus, spreading to at least 16 countries, including Burundi, Cameroon, Congo, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Rwanda, the DRC, South Africa, Uganda and Kenya.
On 15 August, the Swedish government confirmed the first case of the new Mpox variant outside of Africa, with one person diagnosed in the Stockholm area.
Solace Global Assessment:
The Africa CDC’s declaration marks the first time it has used its continental security powers, granted in 2022, to address a major outbreak. The declaration underscores the CDC’s assessment that a coordinated and proactive approach across the continent is required to curtail the spread of Mpox. However, the provision of medical services in Africa is hugely dependent on foreign aid. Without foreign intervention from organisations like the World Health Organization (WHO), it is unlikely that the spread of the virus will be effectively managed, likely a motivating factor for the Africa CDC to declare it a continent-wide emergency.
The disease, which is characterised by a range of symptoms, including fever, muscle aches, skin lesions, rashes, headaches, fatigue and swollen lymph nodes typically has a global death rate of three to six per cent. However, the new Clade Ib strain is assessed to be more virulent and have a higher death rate. Early estimates indicate that the death rate may be as high as five per cent for adults and ten per cent for children, making it the most deadly strain of Mpox currently identified. Most new cases of Mpox are sexually transmitted but there is also evidence to suggest that the new strain can spread between people more easily than previous strains. These factors have led to concerns that the virus will spread beyond Africa, especially if the new strain can spread without symptoms, a key factor which can determine the severity of an epidemic.
The Africa CDC is currently assessing that 10 million Mpox vaccines are needed in Africa and is currently negotiating for 200,000 from international partners. However, there are major shortages and delays due to regulatory approvals and logistical demands. Moreover, if the virus continues to spread outside of Africa, there is a realistic possibility that vaccines will be diverted to other regions, with Europe previously managing the 2022-23 outbreak through rapid vaccinations.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Latest UK gas-fired powered station approval likely to drive environmentalist unrest
On 14 August, the London High Court dismissed a legal challenge against a BP-backed project to create a gas-powered power plant, to be constructed in the Teesside area of northeast England. The legal challenge had been supported by environmentalist groups.
As environmentalist groups in the UK have increasingly sought to cause business and transport disruptions in response to adverse legislative and judicial developments, there is a high likelihood of “retaliatory” action following the latest setback. Activist groups’ protests are likely to take the form of road blockades and symbolic gestures, although there is a realistic possibility of sabotage action targeting energy infrastructure. This latter course of action presents a much lower chance of arrest and detection, and it may become more popular following the increasing number of harsh sentences given by UK courts to environmentalist activists who participated in road blockades and other high-visibility actions.
The EU and Elon Musk engage in row over hate speech online
The EU’s digital commissioner Thierry Breton warned X.com owner Elon Musk not to amplify “harmful content” online, after Musk conducted an interview with Republican candidate Donald Trump on 12 August. The interview, which was marred by technical problems, was singled out by Breton as a possible driver of disinformation and violent speech in the EU.
The EU previously sanctioned X.com in January 2024 for failing to respect its social media laws. Under Musk’s ownership, X.com has increasingly become a hotspot for the spread of disinformation, as well as extremist content. There is a realistic possibility, also considering the recent disinformation-fuelled riots in the UK, of further EU action targeting X.com. This, in turn, may have important spillover effects for European information spaces.
YouTube bans Portuguese far-right party’s channel
On 13 August streaming giant YouTube banned the channel of the Portuguese ultranationalist group, Grupo 1143 due to violations relating to hate speech unearthed by an enquiry by the New York Times. Grupo 1143, which is named after the year Portugal became a sovereign nation, has organised anti-immigration and anti-Muslim protests throughout the country and its leader, Mario Machado, has served time for assault and racial discrimination.
There is a realistic possibility that the banning of the group’s YouTube channel could lead to organised protests or reprisal attacks, with Grupo 1143 linked to attacks on Portugal’s immigrant community.
Thousands of Slovaks protest government’s democratic backsliding
On 12-13 August, almost 20,000 Slovaks took to the streets of Bratislava to protest recent government actions that they see as undermining the rule of law and democratic freedoms. The opposition is urging Brussels to hold the Slovak government accountable.
Frustrations with Prime Minister Robert Fico’s coalition, including the ultranationalist Slovak National Party, have intensified after several controversial developments. These include the dismissal of the directors of the Slovak National Theatre and National Gallery by Culture Minister Martina Šimkovičová, the release of former special prosecutor Dušan Kováčik following an appeal by Justice Minister Boris Susko, and Fico’s plans to disband the National Crime Agency.
Opposition leaders and European lawmakers from Progressive Slovakia warn that these actions represent a systemic erosion of democracy, with protests expected to continue. The European Commission has yet to respond but faces growing pressure to address Slovakia’s democratic backsliding.
Controversial Bulgarian anti-LGBT law set to pass
Bulgarian President Radev has refused to veto an anti-LGBT law passed by the country’s parliament, indicating that it will be passed into law. The law is an amendment to the Pre-School and School Education Law, which bans “non-traditional sexual orientation” education in schools.
The law has already provoked demonstrations on the streets of Sofia and in the major port city of Varna. Further protests against the law are likely and the government’s endorsement of anti-LGBT sentiment could embolden far-right counter-demonstrations, which may lead to violent confrontations.
The passing of the law may also strain Bulgaria’s relationship with the European Union, which upholds principles of equality and non-discrimination.
Opposition leaders arrested in Tanzania
On 12 August, police arrested the leaders of the main opposition party CHADEMA as they prepared to attend a meeting in the country’s southwest. Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who came to power in 2021, has supervised some progress towards democratisation, including lifting bans on political rallies. However, this “liberalisation” has remained extremely constrained, and the government almost certainly remains determined to quash local opposition.
Along with the party’s leaders, dozens of youth wing members were also arrested. The party’s leaders were released on bail on 13 August. There is a realistic possibility of the crackdown resulting in civil unrest, possibly leading to further police intervention.
Woman left paralysed after being shot by the Iranian religious police
According to reports, an Iranian citizen was shot by the religious police for not complying with the country’s strict religious dress laws. The religious dress laws are largely unpopular with the Iranian population, and cases of spontaneous protest and non-compliance have continued following the brutal crackdown of the 2022 unrest that followed the police’s killing in custody of Mahsa Amini.
There is a realistic possibility of further protests being caused by the latest case, albeit these are unlikely to match the severity of those in 2022. The government’s response to the shooting may provide a signal of the extent to which reformist President Pezeshkian intends to challenge the influence and control of the hardline religious police.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Guards open fire to deter migrant crossings in Poland
A video was shared on social media reportedly showing Polish officers opening fire to deter migrants from storming the border fence at the Poland-Belarus border. The incident, dated 11 August, is possibly the first case of implementation of a law, passed last month, that allows border guards to fire live bullets if threatened. The case did not result in any fatalities.
However, further incidents may drive protests in Poland and other European countries. In the medium term, increasingly harsh policing at the Polish borders could drive migrants to attempt to reach the EU via the Baltic states, further north.
White supremacist lone wolf attack at Mosque in Eskişehir, Turkey
At least seven people were wounded on the morning of 13 August as an 18-year-old individual, armed with a knife and an axe, attacked bystanders at a park near a local Mosque before being arrested. The attacker published a manifesto online before the stabbing and live-streamed the terror attack on X.com via a body-worn camera.
The content of the manifesto, the use of body-worn livestreaming, and multiple neo-Nazi symbols worn by the attacker make it almost certain that the individual espoused a white supremacist ideology and sought to imitate the 2019 Christchurch Mosque shooter. Copycat attacks by white supremacists have regularly taken place over the last decade. As almost all of the attackers are radicalised online, their actions share important similarities, namely “performative” elements – such as live streaming the attack or writing a manifesto – the selection of high-visibility targets, and the promotion of an ideology that combines racist imagery and themes with online subcultures, including non-terror-related ones.
The attacker’s manifesto called for copycat actions, and there is a realistic possibility of further attacks. Finally, the attack is notable as it is the first lone wolf attack in Turkey to explicitly draw inspiration from the Christchurch one, which emphasises the global reach of online white supremacist subcultures.
Iran Central Bank (CBI) targeted in cyberattack
On 14 August, the computer systems of CBI and other banks in the country went offline, with disruptions among the largest ever caused by a cyberattack targeting the Iranian public sector. Responsibility for the attack remains unclear, but there is a realistic possibility that it was carried out by anti-regime hacktivist groups.
In March, a hacker group – known as “API” – infiltrated the Iranian state railway company, resulting in a confidential documents leak. In December 2023, the regime accused the Israeli “Predatory Sparrow” group of carrying out a cyberattack on the country’s fuel stations.
Sudanese rebel group declares famine in southern states
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) has warned of a hunger catastrophe in Sudan’s Nuba Mountains and parts of Blue Nile state, with 20 per cent of families facing severe food shortages and 30 per cent of children suffering from malnutrition. The potential famine is being attributed to the ongoing civil war and poor harvests. The population in these regions has swelled to almost four million due to displacement from other parts of the country. The war between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has exacerbated food insecurity, with both sides accused of humanitarian access and destroying food infrastructure.
Turkey mediates dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia
Ethiopia and Somalia have made significant progress in resolving a dispute triggered by Ethiopia’s agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Tension originally arose after Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland, under which Ethiopia would lease a 20-kilometre stretch of Somaliland’s coastline to guarantee port access and increase trade, in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence. Somalia has stated that the deal is a violation of its sovereignty and has gone as far as threatening war.
Turkey’s mediation efforts have focused on ensuring Ethiopia’s sea access while respecting Somalia’s territorial integrity, with a third round of talks is scheduled for September.
Sierra Leone court hands out tough sentences for those involved in 2022 coup attempt
A military court in Sierra Leone has sentenced 24 soldiers to prison terms ranging from 50 to 120 years for their roles in a failed coup attempt against President Julius Maada Bio’s government in November 2022. The soldiers were part of a group of 27 men court-martialled for attacking military barracks, prisons, and other locations, leading to over 20 deaths and the release of around 2,200 inmates. A military jury found most of the accused guilty on charges including mutiny, murder, and theft.
The sentencing follows earlier severe convictions of civilians and security personnel involved in the coup attempt and has likely been orchestrated to deter future coups in a region where they are becoming more frequent.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Germany investigates possible sabotage at military barracks near Cologne
On 14 August, a German military base near Cologne airport was sealed off, and thousands of soldiers were advised not to drink tap water due to potential contamination after a possible act of sabotage. The Cologne-Wahn base, which houses 4,300 service personnel and 1,200 civilian employees, is being investigated by police, military police, and German intelligence agencies. The base is also home to military aircraft used by the German government. Authorities have refused to comment and water samples have been taken away for further analysis.
The potential act of sabotage follows a wider European trend with incidents of sabotage reported at military or arms facilities in Poland, the UK, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and several other countries. While there are no indications as to who may have unlawfully accessed the Cologne base, NATO has recently cautioned about a series of hostile actions orchestrated by Moscow, including sabotage and cyberattacks. However, recent low-sophistication sabotage attacks across Europe have highlighted their effectiveness and the high level of plausible deniability involved, indicating that various actors hostile to the German state could be responsible for this incident.
Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian Nord Stream suspect
German authorities have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor “Volodymyr Z.” over the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea near the island of Bornholm in 2022. He is suspected of carrying out the attack with at least two others, also believed to be Ukrainian citizens. The pipelines, key conduits for Russian gas to Europe, were damaged by explosions in September 2022, leading to international investigations.
While the suspect was last known to be living in Poland, authorities believe he has since fled to Ukraine. There is currently no evidence linking the suspects to the Ukrainian government, although it is unlikely that ordinary citizens would have been able to conduct such a complicated attack without state help. If Ukraine refuses to help, it may undermine Germany’s support for the war effort.
Greece struggles with record heat and wildfires near capital
Hundreds of firefighters have been battling a massive wildfire in the northern suburbs of Athens, which began in the northeastern Attica region on 11 August. Thousands of residents were evacuated as the fire spread to schools, hospitals, and fuel stations, with multiple explosions reported. The first fatality of the summer wildfire season was confirmed when a woman’s body was found in Vrilissia.
In response, Greece activated the European Civil Protection Mechanism, seeking assistance from EU countries. With containment efforts ongoing, the extent of the damage remains unclear, and Greece is facing what could be its hottest summer on record with further wildfires almost certain.
Dozens killed in garbage landslide in Kampala, Uganda
On 10 August, a garbage landslide in Kiteezi in Uganda’s capital, Kampala killed at least 30 people and dozens remain missing. The garbage landslide followed heavy rains that triggered extensive flooding across East Africa. The landslide occurred in the middle of the night and buried informal homes whilst their occupants slept. The Kiteezi waste dump serves as Kampala’s only landfill, a city with a metropolitan population of 6.7 million.
Residents have long complained over the hazardous conditions but the collection of rubbish serves as a major source of income for many of the area’s residents. There is a realistic possibility that the increasing death toll and lack of government regulation or accountability could trigger localised unrest.
Asia–Pacific
Pakistan: Baloch separatists conduct series of attacks coinciding with Pakistan’s Independence Day
Throughout the reporting period, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has intensified its attacks against Pakistani forces and infrastructure across Balochistan.
On 14 August, the BLA targeted a rally organised by the Pakistani military in Mand Soro with a remote-controlled improvised explosive device (RCIED), but avoided civilian casualties through the timing of the attack. On the same day, BLA fighters conducted an attack on Pakistani positions in Sepin Tangi, Harnai, killing two soldiers and injuring three.
The previous day, on 13 August, the BLA attacked a Pakistani military post in Shah Mardan, Kalat, using rockets and small arms fire, causing both casualties and financial losses. In Rakni, Harnai, BLA fighters disabled a mobile spy tower installed by Pakistani military and intelligence agencies by setting fire to it.
In Gwadar, the BLA executed a series of attacks on 14 August, including a remote-controlled bomb explosion in Pishukan that injured two Pakistani personnel. The day also saw bomb explosions in Jiwani and Pasni and the discovery of additional bombs in Panwan.
Solace Global Assessment:
BLA attacks have almost certainly been timed to coincide with Pakistan’s Independence Day on 14 August to maximise the publicity of the attacks and subversion of the central government. Whilst these attacks have been publicly attributed to the BLA, there is a high chance that they have also involved other Baloch groups such as the Baloch Liberation Front. These attacks may set a precedent for future waves of Baloch attacks which could be designed to coincide with other important dates such as 27 December or the “Baloch Martyrs’ Day” which honours Baloch fighters who have died in the struggle for independence.
BLA attacks have largely been coordinated against targets associated with the security services and are almost certainly being designed to minimise civilian casualties. This strategic approach is likely to help the BLA maintain legitimacy and support among Baloch communities, ensuring that their struggle is seen as a targeted effort against perceived oppressors rather than a direct threat to innocent civilians.
These attacks continue to disrupt Pakistan’s plans to get the Gwadar International Airport fully operational by 14 August. The airport is an integral part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a 3,000km corridor and the main component of China’s Belts and Roads Initiative. Detering Chinese investment and operations in Balochistan is one of the BLA’s and BLF’s primary objectives. Baloch groups have accused Pakistan and China of resource exploitation, economic marginalisation and environmental damage. Chinese workers are one of the few civilian demographics targeted by Baloch militants.
China has publicly criticised Pakistan for its inability to protect Chinese workers and interests. This has led Beijing to demand widespread counterterrorism operations by Pakistan and also a request to deploy Chinese security personnel to Pakistan, which so far Pakistan has refused. The recent surge and scale of Baloch attacks may force Pakistan to reconsider. However, the deployment of Chinese security personnel to Pakistan will likely justify the Baloch narrative, provide propaganda material, increase recruitment and potentially lead to more frequent and complex attacks on both Chinese and Pakistani security services.
Myanmar: Chinese FM visits Myanmar to offer support in exchange for elections.
On 14 August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with the leader of the Myanmar junta in Naypyidaw after months of revel offensive have strained relations between the neighbouring countries. Border security was one of the main topics discussed and Wang publicly expressed China’s opposition to the war, with much of it occurring near its border China has promised to provide technical support and aid to the junta in exchange for a national election.
Solace Global Assessment:
Beijing’s increased involvement in the Myanmar civil war is almost certainly being driven by the destabilisation of the areas that border China. It follows the rebel’s recent capture of Lashio, a major trading town in Shan state that forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, the proposed election will almost certainly be dismissed as a sham by Western nations after the disbandment of multiple parties by the junta.
Moreover, there is a high likelihood that many of the ethnic rebel groups will refuse to take part in a national election after seizing the initiative in the war. Many of their parties have been disbanded and their ultimate aim is likely greater autonomy or outright separation, suggesting a truce will be hard to secure. The continuation of the war is creating a dire humanitarian situation in Myanmar and there are also increasing reports of war crimes committed by all sides involved but primarily the junta forces.
Furthermore, both the junta and some of the rebel forces are likely exploiting the fog of war to target the predominantly Muslim ethnic Rohingya. In one recent drone and artillery attack, up to 200 Rohingya were killed and 300 injured as they were attempting to flee the country to Bangladesh from Rakhine state. One of the largest rebel groups, the Arakan Army has blamed the junta for the massacre, with the junta blaming the rebel group. This attack forms part of a wider picture which has included the torching of Rohingya homes and the forcible recruitment of Rohingya men for frontline operations.
The attacks will almost certainly force the displacement of the Rohingya creating a surge in internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Myanmar and a further deterioration in the humanitarian situation. It may also lead to a refugee crisis in Bangladesh, with its largest refugee camp, Cox’s Bazar struggling to cope with around one million refugees. As conditions worsen, more Rohingya may attempt to flee by sea to neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. These journeys are incredibly dangerous, place the Rohingya in a position to be exploited by criminal gangs and smugglers and in many cases they are not accepted by the destination countries.
Thailand: Thai Constitutional Court removes prime minister from post.
On 14 August, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was dismissed from office after Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that he had breached ethics regulations for appointing a cabinet minister who had a criminal conviction. Srettha, who was in power for less than a year, is now the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 years to be removed by a verdict from the Constitutional Court.
The ruling coalition, which holds 314 out of 493 seats in the Thai House of Representatives and is dominated by the Pheu Thai Party, was then provided two options to nominate for prime minister. The first choice was, Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney-general and justice minister. The other choice was Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of the ousted former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra- a man who has spent decades challenging Thailand’s conservative establishment and royalist military.
On 16 August the coalition decided to nominate Paetongtarn.
Solace Global Assessment:
The dismissal of Prime Minister Srettha is likely further evidence of Thailand’s democratic backsliding after the recent dissolution of the reformist Move Forward Part (MFP). The removal of Srettha not only demonstrates the establishment’s almost unchecked power but could signal an end to the uneasy truce between it and Pheu Thai.
It is unlikely that the establishment will be able to block the Pheu Thai coalition from nominating a prime ministerial candidate as they control a majority in parliament. However, mechanisms exist to enable the establishment to block a candidate’s appointment. The Senate, which is largely appointed by the military, must also endorse parliament’s decision. The Constitutional Court can challenge the legality of the nomination, and the election commission can challenge the eligibility of Thai members of parliament. Should the establishment leverage any of these options after removing Srettha and dissolving MFP, there is a high likelihood of disruptive protests in Thailand- demonstrations that could evolve into a wider pro-democracy movement like those observed in 2020-21.
Conversely, the appointment of another Shinawatra will almost certainly be interpreted as Thaksin running Thailand from behind the scenes. Paetongtarn ‘s nomination will likely galvanise the establishment’s base and lead to accusations of corruption and nepotism. Several protests have erupted in the past relating to the Shinawatra family, most notably the 2006 anti-Thaksin protests championed by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), or “Yellow Shirts”- movements that typically provoke a reaction from the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), or “Red Shirts”.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Doctors protest following rape and murder case in Kolkata, India
More than 8,000 Indian doctors and other healthcare professionals have launched a strike, paralysing non-emergency services across multiple states including West Bengal, Maharashtra, Goa, and Uttar Pradesh. The doctors are protesting unsafe working conditions, after one of their colleagues, a 31-year-old trainee medic, was raped and killed at a public hospital.
Moreover, some reports have emerged indicating that the victim’s college initially tried to cover up the murder, telling her family that she had “committed suicide”. These have further inflamed public outcry, with doctors calling for strikes at a national level. Gender-based violence continues to be an extremely severe issue in India, which continues to rank among the most affected countries globally.
Moreover, healthcare workers are at a disproportionately higher risk of violence, and a study from 2023 assesses that up to 75 per cent of health workers in India have been victims of physical or verbal abuse at some point in their careers.
Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, stands down
The 14 August announcement ends the prime minister’s three-year tenure, which was marked by a major corruption scandal and the decline of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) popular support. The LDP has remained in power for much of the past 70 years but has faced a significant decline under the current administration.
No opposition party likely has enough traction to challenge LDP as of now. However, Kishida’s resignation could have important implications for the 2025 elections. An increasingly unstable LDP could further discourage foreign investors and have negative impacts on Japanese markets.
Indonesia set to open new capital in Nusantara
The inauguration of Indonesia’s new capital is set to take place on 17 August. The new capital, which is far from being completed, will be located in the province of East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo.
The construction of a new capital has been contentious and plagued with environmental concerns, especially deforestation and a loss of biodiversity. It also threatens to displace indigenous people and costs are anticipated to spiral out of control.
The creation of a new capital underlines the vulnerability of Jakarta, which is mired by overcrowding, pollution, congestion but most importantly is sinking, with 40 per cent of the metropolis now assessed as being below sea level.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Taliban celebrate three years of rule in Afghanistan
On 14 August, the Taliban marked the third anniversary of their return to power, which included a military parade outside a former US air base near Kabul.
The Taliban have consolidated their grip on power in that time, imposed harsh restrictions on women and girls, detained hundreds of journalists and presided over economic decline. The Taliban government are yet to be formally recognised by another government and is plagued by internal divisions. Its continued control will almost certainly lead to further human rights abuses and severe humanitarian issues.
Anti-Hindu sectarian violence on the rise in Bangladesh
Following the collapse of the Hasina government and the prime minister’s escape to India, the transition government of Bangladesh has noted the increase of sectarian violence against Hindu temples and private property, as well as reported cases of lynchings and mob attacks.
The government’s collapse has almost certainly opened a security vacuum that domestic and Islamist groups are seeking to fill. These include both well-established groups, like Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJeI), and smaller Islamist formations that have so far had little impact on Bangladeshi society. For instance, a small branch of the Islamic State, known as the Bengal Province (ISBP) was formed in 2014 and has remained active, especially via online propaganda. The government’s collapse, combined with broader trends within IS including its shift away from its historic centre in Syria and Iraq, may present an opportunity for ISBP to intensify operations, including by carrying out attacks and recruitment campaigns.
Moreover, the increased prominence of sectarian violence in Bangladesh may have spillover effects outside of the country. Sectarian violence involving Hindus and Muslims in the Indian subcontinent has at times drive unrest in countries that have a large south Asian diaspora, such as the UK and Canada. The most notable example is the 2022 Leicester riots, however, the Bangladesh protests have more recently driven unrest in the UK, with clashes recorded in July in the Whitechapel area of London.
Taiwan to conduct military exercises
Taiwan is set to hold military exercises off its eastern coast on 20 August. The exercises will involve the live-firing of multiple air-launched missile systems by Taiwan’s air force along the east coast and near Orchid Island. The exercise is likely aimed at countering Chinese attempts to encircle the island and enforce a blockade, and will likely to be met with a major Chinese demonstration of strength.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
More than 100 people dead in India due to heavy rains and landslides.
The death toll surpassed 100 on 12 August. Authorities have also closed more than 220 roads, including four national highways, due to landslides, in the state of Himachal Pradesh. The floods that have affected the north Indian state since the past weekend have likely been exacerbated by the poor state of local infrastructure, with multiple reports of river banks collapsing, as well as the mountainous local terrain, which concentrates water flows towards valley settlements and complicates rescue efforts.
North Korea announces it will reject foreign aid after severe floods.
Regime officials reportedly rejected offers by South Korea, although it is unclear if they will also turn down Russian offers to provide help. The approximately 15,000 people displaced by the floods in Sinuiju will be moved to Pyongyang. Due to North Korea’s extremely strict government control, public unrest remains highly unlikely.
New Zealand charity distributes sweets contaminated with methamphetamine.
Authorities in New Zealand are racing to recover sweets distributed by the homeless charity Auckland City Mission after it was discovered that several of the sweets were contaminated with the drug methamphetamine. Preliminary reports indicate that the sweets contain as much as 300 times the lethal dose of the synthetic stimulant.
The sweets have already hospitalised three people and are wrapped in the label of the Malaysian brand Rinda. Disguising narcotics as sweets is a common cross-border smuggling tactic and the current assessment is that the sweets were donated to the charity by accident.
However, only 16 sweets have been recovered and the authorities are unaware as to how many have been distributed. The full recovery of the sweets is highly unlikely, with each one reportedly worth around USD 600.
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Executive Summary
- Protests and counter-protests in the UK will likely continue on the weekend but have likely been subdued by the government’s use of severe penalties and rapid sentencing.
- Iran has continued to promise retaliation against Israel, with the most likely course of action a layered missile, rocket and drone attack coordinated with proxy forces.
- Early indications are that Hasina’s resignation has likely lessened anti-government unrest in Bangladesh. However, there is increasing evidence suggesting extremists are exploiting the chaos to target the Hindu minority.
- There is a realistic possibility that the dissolution of the reformist Move Forward Party in Thailand will result in protests and possibly a wider pro-democracy movement.
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AMER
Haiti: Kenyan forces make some progress but gangs still in control
Venezuela: Maduro further quashing dissent, military pledges loyalty
EMEA
United Kingdom: Government begins accelerating arrests, as riots continue
Israel and Iran: Tehran and Hezbollah promise retaliation for assassinations
Somalia: Al-Shabaab conduct complex attack on Mogadishu beach resort.
APAC
China: Multiple extreme weather events occur across China
Japan: Megaquake warning issued following 7.1 magnitude earthquake
Bangladesh: PM escapes the country following mass unrest
Thailand: Popular reformist party dissolved by Constitutional Court
North, Central and South America
Haiti: Kenyan mission makes limited progress, as gangs continue fighting back
The UN-backed peacekeeping mission to Haiti, led by Kenyan police forces, has made some very limited progress in its efforts to take back control of the country from the gangs that continue to fuel ongoing chaos and violence.
In late July, Kenyan forces started shifting from their initial strategy of taking control of key points – including hospitals and police stations – in favour of an area-based approach. While gangs have conducted some frontal assaults on police forces during the initial stages of deployment, especially in Port-au-Prince, they have reportedly increasingly switched to a strategy of hit-and-run attacks on Kenyan officials.
At the same time, gangs continue attacking the few remaining operational welfare providers, with an assault on a Church-run children’s institute – resulting in looting – reported on 7 August. On 2 August, a UN report called for a greater deployment of international forces to Haiti. The report included data signalling that, despite the arrival of foreign troops, crime levels in Haiti remain extremely severe, particularly rates of homicide and sexual violence.
Solace Global Assessment:
It is highly likely that the Kenyan forces have encountered significant limitations in meaningfully securing areas previously under gang control. While some reports of Kenyan forces taking over settlements on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince have emerged, no evidence signals that Kenyan police are carrying out “government-building” operations there, and there is a high likelihood that gangs are able to re-infiltrate areas that the UN mission previously cleared.
Consequently, it is almost certain that the main success of the mission so far has been the re-taking of important logistical and government buildings, ensuring some service provision to residents. Gangs’ capacity to attack police stations and other institutions has likely not been affected by the deployment of Kenyan forces, whose “permanent” presence likely only deters operations in some parts of Port-au-Prince.
While trying to inflict some attrition on the Kenyan forces, gangs’ main efforts are likely still aimed at retaining control of the local population to ensure reliance on their criminal networks. Recent gang efforts (led by a group called “400 Mawozo”) to take control of the Ganthier area, near the border with the Dominican Republic, likely illuminate the gangs’ interest in controlling the flows of refugees towards their neighbours.
Venezuela: Maduro cracks down on protesters as hopes of democratic transition fade
Government forces in Venezuela have cracked down on protests with increasing brutality and success. At least 2,200 people have so far been arrested since the vote, and hundreds have been injured, with at least 24 deaths recorded according to human rights groups in the country.
On 8 August, the Maduro regime announced that in-country access to social media platform X would be cut for ten days. Two days prior, the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB), the country’s military, reiterated its “absolute loyalty” to Maduro, rejecting appeals from the opposition leaders to topple the regime.
Government officials have also opened criminal proceedings against opposition leaders including Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez, on charges of inciting insurrection.
Solace Global Assessment:
As covered in last week’s assessment, it is highly unlikely that the military would defect and join anti-regime forces. This is due to the regime’s effective coup-proofing measures, including fostering an environment of uncertainty and insecurity among the highest echelons of the armed forces, pushing for greater oversight of Cuban intelligence, and playing the military against other government militias. It is also due to the opposition’s failures to address the military’s main incentive to back the regime – the direct economic benefits they receive from having a direct stake in oil export operations.
Two weeks after the election, there likely is no realistic path for the opposition to take power. In the short term, it is highly likely that repressive measures will successfully reduce the severity of public demonstrations. This will, in turn, highly likely result in severely increased threats for humanitarian workers and travellers in the country.
Still, it is likely that the regime will need to grant some concessions to reduce the wave of civil unrest that followed the vote. These are almost certainly going to be targeted inducements aimed at satisfying the middle class and bureaucratic intelligentsia. In order to accomplish this, the regime is likely to increasingly look to deepening ties with Russia and China, and to take precautions to reduce the impact of the further wave of sanctions that is highly likely to be imposed by the EU and US on Caracas in the coming weeks.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
US Vice President and Democratic candidate Harris picks running mate
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was not initially considered to be the likeliest candidate for the position. However, Walz was likely selected due to his relative appeal (compared to other potential nominees like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro) to the left wing of the party, with no notable controversies that could upset progressive voters and a strong record on green issues. Moreover, the Democrat presidential candidate likely sees in Walz a chance to win over some moderate Republican voters disillusioned with Trump.
In Chile, mass blackouts disrupt flights, cause civil unrest
On 6 August, power outages affecting up to 1.2 million people were recorded in Chile, after severe weather damaged energy infrastructure. The blackout resulted in large demonstrations, with protesters clashing with police and blocking roads leading to airports in Pudahuel and Santiago, as well as other urban centres. Large blackouts have become somewhat common in Chile, with one in June affecting 400,000 people, and are often linked to severe weather conditions. Further protests could disrupt travel and business across the country, resulting in larger economic costs.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Multiple clergy members arrested for criticising Nicaraguan regime
The Nicaraguan government has illegally detained at least 13 priests, deacons, and members of religious congregations, the most significant instance of persecution against the Catholic Church in 2024. Most of these arrests have targeted clergy from the Diocese of Matagalpa, whose Bishop is exiled from the country.
The Catholic Church remains one of the few organisations in Nicaragua that openly criticises the regime of President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo which has expanded its crackdown on civic institutions since 2018 in an attempt to silence the opposition. Unconfirmed reports also indicate that Nicaragua has ordered the expulsion of the Brazilian ambassador, due to the Lula administration’s criticism of the government’s repression of the Catholic Church
Costa Rican authorities crack down on US-bound international human trafficking network
On 6 August, Costa Rican authorities raided 18 sites linked to an international human trafficking network operating between Ecuador and the US. The operations were coordinated with the US and Panama, leading to the arrests of 21 people. Gangs were charging an average of USD 14,000 to illegally smuggle migrants from Ecuador to the US. Most migrants were Ecuadorian but many were also from further afield, including from Africa and Asia.
Costa Rica is now considering a similar deal to the one recently agreed between the US and Panama, whereby Washington will fund the deportation of US-bound migrants from the host country. Organised and violent crime groups in the region are increasingly turning to human trafficking due to the high profit margins, high demand and lower risk of detection and prosecution.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
US avocado demand leads to violence and environmental damage in Mexico
Mexican authorities have indicated that as many as 80 per cent of the avocado orchards in the state of Michoacán have been established illegally and their increased cultivation is being driven by US demand. The illegal expansion of avocado orchards and circumvention of Mexico’s environmental regulations are leading to high rates of deforestation, damage to the local ecology, depletion of local water resources and exacerbating drought. High profits have attracted the involvement of the cartels, who have employed violence and intimidation to suppress dissent, displace local communities and extort payments from farmers.
Brazilian farmers attack indigenous activists in Mato Grosso do Sul state, injuring 11
The attack took place on 5 August, as the activists sought to retake land scheduled to be cleared for farming operations. The farmers’ reportedly set fire to tents where some of the activists were staying and fired rubber bullets. Increasing numbers of clashes between farmers and indigenous people have been recorded as pro-farmer lobbies are currently seeking to amend Brazil’s constitutional provisions that grant indigenous groups claims to their ancestral lands.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
United Kingdom: Government enacts measures to curb riots, braces for another weekend of unrest
The UK government, led by newly-elected Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has begun implementing stricter measures, including arrests for incitements to violence online, to curb the sectarian violence that has affected much of northern England, as well as cities in southern England and Northern Ireland, following the stabbing of multiple children at a dance class in Southport, which killed three.
On 9 August, a 28-year-old man was arrested for encouraging rioters to attack a hotel housing asylum seekers in Leeds via social media. At the same time, the government has also put in place measures to expedite the sentencing of rioters. As of 8 August, UK police assessed that more than 480 arrests had been made in connection with the riots, and at least 150 charges had been brought forward, and stated that both numbers are rapidly rising.
Solace Global Assessment:
While the intensity of the protests has decreased during the week, there is a realistic possibility of a further increase during the weekend. The harsher measures put in place by the government are likely to lessen the scale of the unrest, as they place a deterrent on further riots while simultaneously dismantling spaces for online organisation.
While the initial protests that followed the stabbing were community-driven, the increase in tensions has allowed extremists, mostly online-based, to gain a prominent role in fuelling the violence. A possible indication of social media’s prominent role is the notably young age of many of the rioters. According to British police, more than a quarter of people charged so far are under 21 years of age, with some of the individuals arrested as young as 11.
Still, it is unclear to what extent the Starmer government will be able to effectively reduce the impact of online radical discourse. Much of the extremist material currently fuelling the riots is produced outside of the United Kingdom, mostly by users based in continental Europe or the US, and it is unlikely that Westminster will be able to create a legislative framework that is able to deal with these channels without compromising the openness of the British information space in the immediate term. Moreover, the threat posed by social media-based extremist discourse will almost certainly extend well beyond the current crisis, with a high likelihood of commentary regarding the riots continuing to drive radicalisation among UK-based youth. While the deterrents put in place by the government may discourage large gatherings, there is a realistic possibility of a change in the nature and scope of sectarian violence in the medium term, entailing a movement towards targeted, lone-actor violence.
Israel, Palestine and Iran: Iran continues to promise major retaliation for Haniyeh assassination
Iran has repeatedly conducted actions and promulgated narratives indicating that it will take this course of action, including the issuing of multiple Notice to Air Missions (NOTAMs) aimed at communicating an aerial attack is imminent. On 7 August, the Iranian armed force-run media outlet Defa Press suggested that Iran should target Israel from multiple directions to disperse Israeli assets, thereby exposing targets.
Iran has also published information relating to what targets it has already decided to strike, although this may be disinformation. The list includes Israeli military bases and government sites like the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, the Israeli Knesset building in Jerusalem, and eight airbases spread across Israel. Iran also named civil infrastructure sites like airports, gas fields, and power plants throughout Israel.
Iran’s most powerful proxy force, Lebanese Hezbollah, has also vowed to retaliate for the assassination of one of its senior commanders, Fuad Shukr. On 7 August, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hasan Nasrallah, warned that Israel should prepare for any scenario and that Hezbollah is poised to strike Israel either as part of a wider Iranian-sponsored attack or independently of Tehran.
Solace Global Assessment:
The US, Russia and other external actors are championing diplomatic efforts in order to de-escalate the situation and avert a wider conflict. There is a realistic possibility that Iran seeks a peaceful resolution, with reports indicating that Tehran may relinquish its plans to attack Israel in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza. However, after the assassination of Haniyeh and the appointment of the more militant Sinwar as Chairman of Hamas’ Political Bureau, Iran will likely struggle to persuade Hamas to accept a ceasefire at this time.
Iran’s most likely course of action is to conduct a similar attack to the layered missile, rocket and drone attack in April. However, it is assessed that 99 per cent of the threats heading to Israel were either intercepted by Israeli air defence or US, UK and Jordanian jets. Iranian proxies have probed Israeli air defence for several months to identify weaknesses or gaps in coverage. Furthermore, Iranian media’s repeated discussion of the attack and the release of potential targets spread across Israel has been designed to disperse Israeli air defence. However, the US has increased its force posture in the region and is likely in a better place to intercept threats- a course of action it will almost certainly pursue to manage escalation.
To effectively penetrate Israel’s air defence, Iran may be forced to leverage its proxy forces more to strike Israel. Threats launched from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq will provide less early warning and reaction time for both Israel and collation forces. However, if Iran is too successful it may inadvertently escalate.
Iran’s primary goal is likely to effectively penetrate Israeli air defence with multiple ballistic missiles as these could be nuclear-armed in the future, suggesting that Iran’s main effort is not to kill Israeli citizens, only to demonstrate capability and bolster its deterrence. For this reason, Iran will likely prioritise military sites over population centres.
However, if Hezbollah adopts a divergent path, many of its crude and indiscriminate rocket systems will pose a credible threat to settlements in northern Israel, including population centres as far south as Acre, Haifa and Nazareth. Hezbollah attacks will almost certainly provide the Netanyahu administration the pretext to severely degrade the militant group on Israel’s border. This would almost certainly involve expanded strikes in northern and central Lebanon against high-value targets, but depending on the scale of a Hezbollah attack could trigger a limited ground offensive into southern Lebanon by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).
Somalia: Al-Shabaab conduct complex attack on Mogadishu beach resort
On 2 August, the al-Qaeda aligned Somalia-based jihadist group, al-Shabaab (AS) conducted a mass casualty complex attack at the popular Lido beach in Mogadishu. The assailants targeted the area late on a Friday when residents of the city typically congregate at seaside restaurants and cafes. A suicide bomber detonated his device, which was then followed by several gunmen opening fire on civilians. It is currently estimated that at least 37 people were killed in the attack and over 200 injured, marking one of the most deadly attacks in Mogadishu in 2024. On 5 August, hundreds of Somali citizens gathered near the attack site to protest AS and to show that they had not succumbed to the group’s attempts to intimidate.
Solace Global Assessment:
AS, which has now been fighting an insurgency against the Somali government for almost 20 years, has targeted the Lido area multiple times before. The area is an upmarket area of Mogadishu with enhanced security protocols, often frequented by foreigners, international diplomats as well as Somali government and military staff. An AS attack here clearly demonstrates AS’ capability to target any part of the capital and serves to undermine the authority of the central government.
In 2022, a Somali government offensive against AS resulted in the group ceding much territory to government forces backed by international support from the African Union (AU), local clans and drone strikes by the US and Turkey. Initial optimism fuelled by the offensive’s success led Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to announce that AS would be defeated within months or reduced to just a few isolated pockets of influence. However, as an insurgent force, AS does not rely on holding territory and has been able to continue its operations by transitioning to guerrilla tactics and blending into civilian populations.
In recent months, AS has managed to reclaim ground from the government in its traditional strongholds in central and southern Somalia, likely providing it with more freedom of movement and greater capacity to conduct operations. To compound the current situation, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to end in late 2024, with responsibility for all security operations set to be transferred to the Somali National Armed Forces. The AU’s drawdown will almost certainly lead to an overstretching of government forces who are also having to contend with other militant groups, Puntland and Somaliland separatist movements and the looming threat of war with Ethiopia.
Moreover, it is unlikely that the government can independently deal with the financial costs or logistical demands to combat AS and has also become over reliant on fragile clan support. A resurgent AS will almost certainly seek to exploit these conditions and exact revenge by reclaiming lost territory and by increasing attacks within Somali government-held territory, with Mogadishu being the most coveted target.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Catalan separatist leader Puigdemont evades capture after appearance in Barcelona.
Former Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont defied his Spanish arrest warrant by returning to Barcelona and appearing at a pro-independence rally on 8 August. The separatist leader addressed thousands of supporters, calling for the revival of the Catalan independence movement. In 2017, large-scale unrest and an independence referendum that was not recognised and deemed illegal by Madrid, led to a significant political crisis in Spain. Puigdemont has been in a self-imposed exile from Spain since 2017, wanted for alleged embezzlement.
It is suspected that Puigdemont evaded capture from authorities with the assistance of a police officer. It is likely that civil unrest will increase in Barcelona from pro-independence protestors, galvanised by Puigdemont’s surprise appearance. It is also likely that anti-independence protests will increase across Spain, especially in Madrid, with criticism of authorities for failing to capture Puigdemont likely to be a major theme.
Turkey bids to join South Africa’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel.
The lawsuit accuses Israel of committing the crime of genocide in Gaza. The move follows from previous anti-Israeli gestures and statements by the Turkish government. It is highly unlikely that this development will affect the war in Gaza, and Ankara likely sees it as a way to increase its domestic support.
Provincial governor of Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) suspends Chinese mining.
China has important economic interests in the DRC. The northeastern Haut-Uélé province has the Kibali Gold Mine, one of Africa’s largest, and is rich in rare earth materials. DRC authorities claimed that the suspension was caused by non-compliance with standards for the prevention of environmental degradation. However, Chinese mining practices are well-known, and it is more likely that the ban is part of larger re-negotiations of mining terms, with local officials seeking a bigger share of the profits.
Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to visit Malawi, Zambia and Mauritius.
The diplomatic trip follows the collapse of Ukraine’s relations with the Sahel junta states and is almost certainly an attempt to counter Moscow’s growing diplomatic clout in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kuleba’s efforts are highly likely to mostly cover grain exports from Ukraine to Africa – especially Malawi and Zambia, who have growing populations combined with extreme economic deprivation – and will likely not focus on minerals (which remain Russia’s main focus in the continent). Mauritius, the most economically competitive country in Africa, may be of particular interest to Kyiv due to its potential in the context of post-war reconstruction.
Controversial South Africa healthcare reform goes ahead despite opposition.
The legislation overhauls the healthcare system by limiting private provider’s ability to restrict access to care and set their own prices. President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the bill before the May election, highly likely in an unsuccessful attempt to increase electoral support for his African National Congress (ANC) party. The ANC’s main government ally, the pro-market Democratic Alliance (DA) is strongly opposed to the bill. The bill’s rollout could lead to intra-government tensions, possibly having an impact on civil unrest in South Africa.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna cancelled due to fears of Islamic State (IS) attack.
Authorities arrested two individuals in connection with a possible plot to attack venues hosting the concerts in Vienna. However, the concerts were still cancelled due to fears of additional IS affiliates still undetected. The two suspects are 18 and 19, and pledged allegiance to IS online. This highly likely continues to highlight the global trend of Islamists managing to radicalise younger individuals, using social media as a primary tool.
IS has increased efforts to target Western cities, and this international outlook is line with its growth in the Sahel, Somalia, and Afghanistan. High-visibility events, such as the Olympics or large cultural and sporting events, are likely desirable targets. By seeking to target a Taylor Swift concert, the suspected terrorists were almost certainly aiming to replicate the media effect of the Manchester Arena bombing of 2017.
The arrests were featured heavily in propaganda by the Austrian chapter of the far-right group Generation Identity (GI). GI is likely seeking to expand its political influence after a period of relative decline.
A stabbing in Holon, Israel, kills two and injures two more.
Lone wolf attacks remain a major threat in Israeli urban areas. There is a realistic possibility that the profile of the victims – two senior citizens – will result in retaliatory mob violence, especially against Israel’s Arab population.
Russia cancels Houthi arms supply.
Reports indicate that the Kremlin has cancelled its plans to arm the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. Initial indications suggested Russia was seeking to arm the militant group in response to the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to attack mainland Russia with US-derived weapons. The delivery would have included capable anti-ship weapon systems such as anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), a development that would increase the Houthis’ ability to conduct attacks in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden.
Pressure from the US and more importantly, Saudi Arabia likely persuaded Russia to abandon these plans, fearing it would lose influence in Arab countries. However, unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian military advisors have visited Yemen, likely to train and advise the Houthis on how to use their existing weapon systems more effectively against international shipping.
UK Foreign Office issues urgent travel alert for Djibouti.
The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has issued an urgent travel alert for the East African country of Djibouti, warning of the “very likely” threat of terror attacks. The alert warns that transport hubs; hotels, restaurants and bars; shopping areas; religious events; sporting events; and military bases are likely targets, with the US, France, China, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE all maintaining a constant military presence in the highly strategically placed country.
Few details are specified in the alert, which is likely predicated on credible but classified intelligence. However, Djibouti’s involvement in counter-al-Shabaab operations under the African Union has likely made it a coveted target for the al-Qaeda-aligned group.
US forces complete withdrawal from Niger.
US forces have completed their withdrawal from Niger after leaving their Air Base 201 in Agadez, northern Niger. 800 service personnel had already withdrawn in early July, with 200 following on 5 August, after the junta demanded US forces leave over a year ago. The base was primarily being used to operate US drones against al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated groups throughout the Sahel region.
The loss of this strike and intelligence capability will almost certainly degrade Nigerien forces’ ability to counter these threats but has opened the door for greater Russian involvement. The US has also cited concerns over Iran wanting to access Niger’s mineral wealth, most notably its vast uranium reserves which Washington believes it is wanting to use in its nuclear programme.
Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) kidnaps two Russians in Niger.
A video was shared by the al-Qaeda affiliated group on 3 August, showing the two who are identified as being employees of a Russian mining company. The case highlights the ongoing security vacuum in Niger, with neither Russia or the military alliance between the three neighbouring juntas likely able to contrast a growing Islamist presence at this time. Extremists will likely continue to target foreign nationals, especially those associated with the mining industry, which is attracting foreign influence to the region.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Torrential rainfall in Yemen results in at least 40 deaths.
Heavy rainfall in Houthi-occupied western Yemen led to at least 40 deaths as a result of flooding.
On 7 August, humanitarian organisations announced that they had begun deliveries of vital aid to affected areas. It is likely that the impact of the floods is worsened firstly by the poor record of basic service delivery by the Houthi administration, and secondly by the challenging threat environment for aid workers. There have been multiple reports of aid workers being abducted by Houthi authorities, due to suspicion of espionage.
While reduced, rainfall is forecast to continue through next week. It is likely that even moderate rainfall will pose challenges, due to the lack of adequate drainage and flood-resistant infrastructure in a region that historically has not had much rainfall.
Zimbabwean government assesses that cholera outbreak has ended.
Zimbabwe originally declared a state of emergency in November last year, after 7,000 suspected cases were reported, and dozens of deaths. The severity of the 18-month-long outbreak was almost certainly worsened by the 2022 shortage in cholera vaccines, which forced the International Coordinating Group (ICG) to temporarily change the vaccine regime from the usual two doses to one. Moreover, as cholera is transmitted via contaminated water or food, countries with less robust water infrastructure are at a much higher risk of outbreaks. The latest estimate of the outbreak’s impact is a total of 34,550 suspected cases (of which 4,200 confirmed), 631 suspected deaths, and 88 confirmed ones.
Asia–Pacific
China: Multiple extreme weather events occurring across China
Amid heavy rainstorms across southern China, flash floods occurred in areas of the Sichuan. The floods affected 265 households and damaged multiple power lines. Eight people were killed and at least 19 are missing. Moreover, north China is suffering from a heat wave, with fears of drought, triggering concerns about farm production. While severe weather has become more common, there have been calls from Chinese policymakers for better disaster prevention in preparation for more severe weather conditions, including both droughts and floods.
Solace Global Assessment:
China’s flood season lasts predominantly between May and September, peaking from mid-July to mid-August. Over the last two months, multiple severe environmental events have been recorded, with landslides and flooding killing over 150 people. The Chinese government has said that the rainfall and subsequent flooding have led to a doubling of the economic losses caused by natural disasters in July from the previous year, amounting to a total loss of CNY 76.9 billion (USD 10.1 billion) from natural disasters, an estimated 88 per cent of this being due to the heavy rain and floods.
In total, extreme weather events are assessed to have affected around 26 million people across China, with an estimated 1.1 million relocated, 12,000 houses destroyed, and 157,000 damaged, as well as 2.42 million hectares of crop affected in July alone. Severe and protracted damage from extreme weather events may increasingly become a driver of popular dissatisfaction towards local and national governments. Civil unrest has the potential to occur across affected regions in response to perceived government inaction or unpreparedness for the floods.
Other ongoing social issues may also contribute to a general dissatisfaction towards Beijing’s ability to provide welfare. The central government is currently debating plans to raise the retirement age by an average of five years, a decision which has been met with widespread dissatisfaction. Broader political developments could further drive local grievances with the government, adding to pre-existing discontent. Protests erupted in multiple cities at a similar time last year after the government channelled water from swollen rivers to populated areas, to prevent Beijing from flooding. The inhabitants of the area flooded, Zhuozhou in the Hebei Province, protested the measure, and were met with a harsh response from the police. The 2023 episodes may serve to deter protests linked to the current floods. In addition, the Chinese government may have learned from their previous mistakes and has this year allocated flood relief funding for five provinces, which may be able to settle and reassure the public.
Japan: Megaquake warning issued following 7.1 magnitude earthquake
On 8 August a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of Kyushu, Japan. Tsunami warnings were issued and strong shaking was felt in Miyazaki. A small number of residential buildings were damaged, with one collapsing, in areas such as Osaki town in Kagoshima prefecture. At least 16 people were injured. No major damage or deaths have been reported, and nuclear power plants were unaffected. While the 7.1 earthquake’s impact was relatively minimal, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued an advisory warning that the probability of a megaquake occurring in the Nankai Trough is several times higher than usual
Solace Global Assessment:
The warning indicates an increased likelihood of a megaquake, which typically refers to magnitude 8 and above earthquakes. However, the advisory has almost certainly been issued as a precaution, rather than a definitive prediction. The Nankai Trough, located south of Japan, hosts a significant fault, the Nankai megathrust. Megathrust earthquakes, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, which was magnitude 9.1, pose a significant risk. Worst-case scenario estimates predict that over 200,000 people could be killed as a result of a Nankai Trough megaquake. The most at-risk areas are on Japan’s southern Pacific coast.
In the next 30 years, seismologists estimate that there is a 70 to 80 per cent chance of a Nankai Trough megaquake occurring. Although the JMA are not able to accurately predict exactly when and where the earthquake will occur, they have urged residents on Japan’s Pacific coast to reaffirm their preparedness and take precautions over the next week. Japan has rigorous earthquake preparedness measures. The use of advanced earthquake-resistant technologies, infrastructure resilience, stringent building codes, and thorough disaster response plans all contribute towards making Japan highly resistant to the impact of earthquakes. However, extremely powerful earthquakes such as the 2011 earthquake are still capable of causing widespread damage and large numbers of fatalities.
As a result of the warning, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has cancelled a scheduled 9 August visit to central Asia, which almost certainly indicates a high level of concern. Multiple companies are taking precautionary measures, such as reviewing business continuity plans and conducting drills, and major utility companies are preparing their communication networks and readiness protocols. It is almost certain that the elevated state of earthquake preparedness will continue over the next week.
Bangladesh: Government overthrown, PM escapes to India, military and students form new administration
On 5 August, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Skeikh Hasina fled to India and resigned after weeks of widespread civil unrest, ending 15 years of her rule. Bangladesh’s president dissolved the parliament on 7 August, clearing the way for new elections. Thousands of protesters defied a military curfew, storming her official residence and setting parts of it on fire.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus, currently in Paris, has agreed to lead a transitional government. However, Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman has announced that an interim government would be formed, with the military set to govern the country until the next round of elections. The military has stated that it will lift the current curfew, address the injustices of the Hasina administration and restore normalcy.
Solace Global Assessment:
The resignation of Hasina and the promise of new elections will almost certainly end much of the current unrest. Recent unrest was triggered by a High Court’s decision to reimpose a controversial jobs quota system, and authorities employed high levels of violence to curb civil unrest, leading to the deaths of at least 300 people. The most likely outcome is that a new government is formed in which the military, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the recently banned Islamist party, share posts.
However, while major unrest directed towards the government is likely to significantly decrease, there are early indications that there may be a new wave of civil unrest emerging in Bangladesh. Hasina’s Awami League party championed secularism and Hindus in Bangladesh are largely thought to have voted for the party. Hindus, who make up approximately eight per cent of the population, have frequently been targeted in the past when the Awami League has lost power. Reports on social media suggest that violent mobs have attacked and looted Awami League offices and Hindu properties and temples throughout the country, leading India to evacuate most of its non-essential embassy staff.
The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, which represents the country’s religious minorities, claims that as many as 300 Hindu homes and 20 temples have been damaged in the attacks. If the attacks continue to escalate, there is a realistic possibility that sectarian violence will spread throughout the region, with Hindu nationalists in India or further afield, targeting the Muslim population in reprisal attacks.
Thailand: Constitutional Court orders dissolution of popular reformist party
On 7 August, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, (MFP) the party which received the largest amount of votes in the 2023 election but whose leader at the time, Pita Limjaroenrat, was blocked from his attempt to become prime minister. The court also banned the party’s executive committee from participating in Thai politics for ten years. The court’s decision follows a ruling in January which stipulated that MFP’s pledge to reform Thailand’s controversial lèse-majesté laws was unlawful. Pita stated that the movement would continue by establishing a new party with new leadership.
Solace Global Assessment:
Thailand’s courts have dissolved political parties and banned popular politicians several times in the past in order to prevent reformist movements from challenging the country’s conservative establishment, which has consolidated its power after a military coup in 2014. In 2018, the Future Forward Party (FFP), a progressive party similar to the MFP, was established. The FFP emerged as the third-largest party in the House of Representatives after the 2019 elections. The FFP was subsequently dissolved and its leaders barred from politics in 2020 after accusations of violating election laws, with many believing these charges had been manufactured by the conservatives.
The dissolution of FFP led to widespread protests in Bangkok and several other major cities, largely driven by the Thai youth who accused the government and judiciary of colluding together to suppress political opposition and undermine democracy. The initial protests evolved into a wider pro-democracy movement that attracted tens of thousands of participants to multiple protests. Protestors demanded constitutional reforms, the resignation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, and a reduction in the monarchy’s power, which persisted into late 2021. Protests were often marked by violent clashes with the police, resulting in at least four deaths, over 150 injuries, hundreds of arrests, the closure of public services, and disruption to transport.
The most likely course of action for MFP and its supporters will be to reconstitute the party under a different name and with new leadership. However, there is a realistic possibility that the MFP’s dissolution will spark protests across the country that could evolve into a wider pro-democracy movement.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Pakistani Islamist party Jamaat-i-Islami announce end of sit-in protest in Rawalpindi.
The Islamist political party Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) announced on 9 August that it is ending its two-week sit-in after negotiating an agreement with the government. The deal includes the establishment of a task force to tackle issues with independent power producers (IPPs), reduce electricity bills, and the lowering of certain taxes. The sit-in involved thousands of participants occupying a road at Liaquat Bagh in Rawalpindi. JI leaders insisted, however, that the sit-in would resume if the government does not fulfil its promises.
Fijian Prime Minister to visit China.
Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka will visit China from August 14 to 21 in a move aimed at strengthening their strategic ties amidst growing geopolitical competition in the Asia-Pacific region. The visit follows Fiji’s decision to maintain a policing cooperation deal with China, which has raised concerns in Australia, highlighting the broader contest for influence between China and the United States in the region.
The visit also coincides with important regional discussions at the Pacific Islands Forum, underlining the broader context of regional security and strategic planning. This visit could potentially elevate Fiji-China relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, reflecting China’s ongoing efforts to deepen its influence in the Pacific over the US.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Australia raises terror threat level.
The Australian government has raised its terror alert from “possible” to “probable” citing the concerns of security officials regarding a major increase in extremist views online. The probable category is level three out of five and indicates that officials believe that the probability of an attack is over 50 per cent. Sources from the country’s main domestic intelligence agency Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) indicated that extremism has increased across “all ideological spectrums” and that the current Israel-Hamas conflict has been a major driver in the rise of extremism.
Three explosions detonate in Thailand’s Patani province.
On 9 August, three bombs exploded in the vicinity of a police station in Muang Patani, Patani province. The first bomb was detonated near a fishing pier and was followed by two subsequent blasts close to the original explosion. One person was injured and has been taken to hospital. Patani province is one of Thailand’s four primarily Muslim provinces where many people speak Malay as a first language and are seeking separation from Thailand. The group most active in Pattani, is the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), which has led an insurgency for several decades and has carried out multiple attacks throughout Thailand.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Severe floods in Nepal kill more than 160, displace hundreds.
Nepal and its neighbours’ monsoon season occurs between June and August and is marked by torrential rain that can easily damage poorly erected informal settlements. In Nepal, at least 167 people have died, and more than 4,000 households have been displaced. Nepal’s uniquely mountainous topography almost certainly contributes to making search and rescue efforts more difficult, and to leaving affected communities at a higher risk of isolation from authorities.
There is a high chance of La Nina conditions, marked by the cooling of the middle Pacific Ocean’s surface, developing this year by September. La Nina tends to coincide with more severe monsoon seasons which, although boosting agricultural yields, are likely to further exacerbate damage in the Indian subcontinent.
North Korea offered humanitarian aid by Russia.
Severe rainfalls and floods have caused damage and disruptions in North Korea’s northwest, reportedly isolating more than 5,000 residents and damaging up to 4,000 homes. The Russian offer of aid further demonstrates the growing security and diplomatic partnership between the two countries which has largely been characterised by the exchange of military technology.
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Executive Summary
- It is highly likely that Maduro will survive the ongoing protests in Venezuela, and it is almost certain that the recent elections will result in further isolation of Caracas.
- After another successful large-scale sabotage of the rail network, local activists and foreign intelligence will likely continue such actions to disrupt the Olympics in France.
- Israel’s assassination of the Hamas Political Bureau Chairman in Iran will almost certainly force Tehran into conducting retaliation.
- Scheduled anti-government protests in Nigeria will likely escalate in response to the government’s use of violent means to curb demonstrations.
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AMER
Venezuela: Large Protests reported following Maduro’s election “victory”
Brazil: Amazon fires surpass 20-year record
EMEA
England: Mass stabbing and disinformation exploited by far-right
France: Sabotage actions demonstrate ongoing security vulnerabilities
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: Hamas chief assassinated
Mali: Russia paramilitaries suffer huge defeat
Nigeria: National protests turn deadly
South Africa: 95 Libyans arrested at “secret” military training camp
APAC
Pakistan and India: ISKP seek to target Urdu speakers
Bangladesh: Riots continue over government’s use of violence
North, Central and South America
Venezuela: Large protests follow Maduro’s “victory” at the elections.
On 29 July, the Venezuelan electoral commission released the official data for the previous day’s vote. According to the officials, incumbent President Maduro was re-elected with 51.2 per cent of the vote.
The opposition, which has recently encountered numerous institutional challenges including the barring of leader Corina Machado from running for president, claimed the results were unfair. An alternative exit poll released by the opposition indicated that they had received approximately 70 per cent of the popular vote.
Following the vote, protests broke out in various part of Venezuela, with authorities (and paramilitary groups affiliated with the government) intervening to violently quash them. Dozens of protesters have been injured or killed as of the time of writing.
Numerous states, including the US, have officially recognised the opposition’s victory, while other regional powers, including Brazil, have called for Venezuela to release concrete proof of its claims.
Solace Global Assessment:
The election results have almost certainly been doctored, and multiple reports indicate widespread manipulation of the voting process. The protests, no matter their severity, are, however, for now, unlikely to result in a reversal of Maduro’s claims and the opening of a pathway towards democratic transition.
The Venezuelan military, the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) and other security forces in the country remain loyal to the government, and there is only a remote possibility that this will change due to popular pressure. The FANB’s fidelity can likely be explained via the repeated economic concessions that the Maduro regime has granted the military, including management positions in the company’s national oil company PDVSA, and much of the capital allocated for the National Development Fund.
Moreover, over the past months, Maduro has taken advantage of a respite in the US-led sanctions regime – following the government’s agreement to hold free and fair elections – to increase its oil exports, thus guaranteeing a vital influx of funds to be allocated towards ensuring the retention of the military’s support. The armed forces are also unlikely to defect as the regime has “coup-proofed” them, by allowing Cuban intelligence to oversee their commitment to the government (including by independently purging officers), and by playing the FANB against other security institutions, like the Bolivarian National Guard and Bolivarian National Police.
Finally, the opposition has also failed to gain traction among senior military officials. Instead, Machado’s plans to liberalise the Venezuelan oil market directly threaten their vital source of funds, making it an unpalatable option.
After reneging on its promise to hold free and fair elections, further sanctions will likely be imposed on Venezuela. This will further isolate Caracas and accelerate its shift towards states hostile to the US, such as Russia, China and Iran. However, this development may also harm the US, which could lose much of its remaining leverage on Venezuela. Unconstrained by US influence, Venezuela could seek to damage Washington in multiple ways.
First, it could further seek to stimulate migrant flows towards Central America, forcing Washington to either devote even more resources to help Central American states’ border control efforts or face a worsening situation at its southern border. Even more importantly, the Venezuelan government could increasingly seek to allow continental (and extra-continental) drug flows towards the United States. In 2023, reports credibly proved that the Maduro regime, and its top military officials, have benefitted from allowing the transit of Colombian cocaine through the county’s territory. Following further isolation, Venezuela may also look to increasingly benefit from the traffic of drugs manufactured in and outside of the Americas, potentially becoming a landing hub for Chinese-made fentanyl.
Brazil: Amazon rainforest fires break a 20-year record
Brazilian government data showed that Amazon rainforest fires affected more than 11,400 hotspots in July, the highest number for that month since 2005. In June, 17,500 square kilometres were burned, the largest area since 2005. The wildfires are occurring during a period of drought and extremely high temperatures. The high volume of fires in the Amazon rainforest and the Pantanal wetlands at its borders continue to threaten native peoples living in the area.
Solace Global Assessment:
The presidency of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva started on premises that were completely different from those of its predecessor Bolsonaro. Lula has committed to stop deforestation by 2030, and has campaigned on preserving the Amazon and its native peoples.
On 31 July, the president signed another law trying to curb deforestation. The latest fires highly likely demonstrate the ongoing severe weaknesses and failures of the Lula administration to protect the Amazon. Compared to Europe, there is a higher incidence of human-caused fires in the Amazon. Many are started by farmers or herders, seeking to clear large areas of forests at little cost.
In addition to being a consequence of the impacts of climate change, the records set during this summer almost certainly reflect a policing failure on the authorities’ part.
Importantly, the ongoing vulnerabilities of the Brazilian government’s strategy to fight deforestation, and the criminality often associated with it, are likely to further perpetuate threats to aid workers, Indigenous people, and activists in the area. In the 2012-2022 decade, around 90 per cent of the almost 2,000 environmentalist activists killed globally were killed in Latin America. One in five murders took place in the Amazon rainforest in 2022. In Brazil, 34 activists were killed in 2022.
Logging, mining, and farming companies, some of which operate almost completely illegally, often deploy quasi-paramilitary groups that carry out targeted killings, torture, and intimidation operations. Lack of government response, or insufficient assets deployed, is likely to continue contributing to a failure to address these fundamental threats, consequently forcing activists to face high risks.
The government’s inability to protect the Amazon either through illegal activities or other reasons has also historically been a major trigger for Indigenous protests throughout Brazil and the wider Amazon region.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Canada tries to reduce temporary immigration
The Canadian government announced on 1 August that it would implement measures to reduce the number of temporary migrants arriving in the country, and will postpone plans to award resident status to undocumented migrants. The shift comes after months of pressure from right-wing parties, as well as numerous security issues – including multiple cases of extremist violence and planning, and political assassinations linked with foreign powers.
There is a high likelihood that a crackdown on immigration will result in localised protests in large Canadian urban centres. Moreover, it may not resolve the government’s woes, as the opposition is unlikely to be satisfied by planned measures, which may nevertheless also upset the government’s liberal electorate.
Trump campaign crushes Project 2025
On 30 July, the director of the controversial Project 2025, a plan spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation to lobby a possible second Donald Trump administration to approve far-right, socially conservative policies, resigned. The resignation was explained by Heritage Foundation members as due to “pressure” from the Trump campaign and followed Trump directly rejecting the project and its organisers.
The move by Trump is likely an attempt at winning undecided, centre-right voters, and to remove one of the Democrat Party’s main campaign targets. Still, Trump likely assesses that Project 2025 can retain some utility due to its proponents’ interest in the question of staffing the next Republican administration with pre-vetted, ideologically committed officials and bureaucrats, which would afford the possible two-term president more room for manoeuvre compared to the 2016-2020 period.
Largest prisoner swap since the Cold War between the US and Russia
On 1-2 August, the US and Russian governments, as well as some European US allies, exchanged two dozen prisoners, with the swap taking place in Ankara. Many of the prisoners released by the US and its European allies had ties to Russian intelligence services. Among the most notable ones is Vadim Krasikov, who had been serving a life sentence in Germany for carrying out an assassination in Berlin.
On the Russian side, the released prisoners include political opposition members Ilya Yashin and Oleg Orlov. The last comparable swap took place in Vienna in 2010. At that time, Sergei Skripal, who would later be targeted by Russian intelligence with the Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury, was among the prisoners released by Russia.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Islamist groups spread anti-US propaganda, encourage lone wolf attacks
During this reporting period, OSINT analysis revealed multiple social media campaigns launched by Islamist violent extremist organisations (VEOs) calling for lone-wolf attacks in the United States. The campaigns were mainly driven by media associated with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
The former is likely the most active branch of the Islamic State (IS) abroad and was responsible for various high-profile attacks including the Crocus Hall and Dagestan attacks in Russia. The latter is smaller, but, following the appointment of a new Emir, has increasingly sought to incite violence abroad.
Two likely drivers of the increase in Islamist propaganda have been the attempted assassination of Donald Trump – which was used to incite further attacks on Western, and particularly US, leaders – and the most recent developments in the Israel-Hamas war.
Russian warships visit Cuba for the second time in two months
On 27 July, a small group of Russian warships from Russia’s Baltic fleet docked in Cuba. The visit follows another one in June, which included a nuclear submarine and frigate. These port calls are routine but normally only occur about once a year. US officials have dismissed the threat.
However, Putin has recently warned of a new Cold War-style missile crisis after the US decision to deploy nuclear-capable long-range missiles to Germany that could strike Russia within ten minutes. Putin has suggested that Russia would station similar missiles in striking distance of the US, with Cuba serving as an obvious base, with these deployments potentially serving as strategic messaging to Washington.
Russia is also seeking to establish a network of international naval bases to aid bluewater operations after losing this capability after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with Cuba a long-coveted destination.
Early indications that Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel is fragmenting
After their recent apprehensions, Sinaloa Cartel figures “El Mayo” and Guzmán López have made court appearances in Texas. The arrest of senior leadership may lead to the further fragmentation of Mexico’s most powerful cartel, which reportedly now operates almost as four independent factions. Continued fragmentation will likely result in increased competition and associated violence within the cartel and rival cartels may seek to capitalise on these perceived weaknesses.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Wildfires continue in British Columbia, Canada
On 30 July, up to 349 wildfires were reportedly burning in the Canadian province of British Columbia. In Alberta, the wildfire responsible for destroying up to a third of the town Jasper’s structures last week has been extinguished. Officials have received criticism for poor wildfire management practices. Reduced temperatures and rainfall have aided the efforts of authorities to tackle the spread of wildfires, however as temperatures are forecast to rise again in the coming days, the spread of wildfires will likely continue.
Forecasts predict Tropical Storm Carlotta to become a hurricane on Friday
The storm, the third named one to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2024, has air speeds of above 100 kph and is expected to affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the weekend. Storm formation in the Pacific will almost certainly be affected by the likely development of the La Nina phenomenon. While, in the Atlantic, La Nina reduces wind shear and makes storms more likely to form, in the Pacific it has the opposite effects, making phenomena like Carlotta less likely.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
England: Mass stabbing and disinformation exploited by far-right to stage multiple protests
On 29 July, a 17-year-old attacked a children’s dance class in Southport, England, killing three and wounding eight. No motive has been identified as of the time of writing, but it appears certain that the attacker deliberately targeted the dance class, making the attack a likely case of lone-wolf terrorism.
On 30 July, protesters gathered in the city and clashed with police, injuring at least 22 officers, and tried to set fire to a local Mosque. On the following day, clashes between police and a few hundred protesters took place near Whitehall, London, as well as in Hartlepool – where rioters set fire to a police car – in Manchester, where police were pelted with rocks, and in Aldershot, where protesters gathered outside a hotel where migrants are housed.
Notably, no credible media coverage alleged that the attacker was Muslim, only that he had Rwandan heritage, a primarily Christian country. Nevertheless, open-source analysis revealed that, in the hours after the attack, far-right channels began promoting narratives linking the attack with Islamist terrorism.
On the day before the stabbing, former English Defence League (EDL) co-founder Tommy Robinson organised a large demonstration in London, the second in the space of a few months. On 28 July, Robinson was arrested but subsequently released on bail. Robinson then fled to the continent to avoid a possible trial for contempt of court.
Solace Global Assessment:
While the protests were not solely driven by far-right groups, there is a high likelihood that UK-based identitarian movements sought to exploit the attacker’s background to drive civil unrest in a way beneficial to their cause. In particular, far-right channels, both in the UK and from other Anglophone countries, immediately began promoting conspiracy theories and fake narratives alleging that the attacker was Muslim, almost certainly to direct local residents’ outrage towards the local Muslim community.
In this sense, the incident can likely be considered to mirror previous cases of misinformation-driven unrest and sectarian violence in countries like India and Egypt. In these cases, as in the recent Southport one, the rapid spread of false narratives online prompted both an intensification of violence among local protesters, and helped drive the influx of more ideologically-committed individuals from other parts of the UK. While the protests in Southport saw notable participation of the local community – and therefore were not simply “far-right” – it is highly likely that identitarian groups managed to coopt the unrest, leading to the later violence in London, Manchester, Hartlepool and Aldershot.
The far-right London protests, as well as the large turnout of rioters and protesters at these locations, possibly highlight a resurgence in the British far-right. Over the past decade, far-right and identitarian groups in the UK have not managed to organise actions similar in scale and severity to those staged by their European counterparts. Historically, UK far-right politics were centred on small parties, like the British National Party (BNP), who had a fundamental interest in breaking into mainstream politics. This “normalisation” objective was likely a restraining factor on the development of neofascist and identitarian militant groups and collectives similar to those in continental European countries like France or Italy, which have historically had a primarily extra-parliamentary focus. With the decline and eventual collapse of BNP in 2013, the rise of the EDL and even smaller groups like Britain First (BF) only partly saw a move towards exclusively militant politics – with the latter still hoping to achieve recognition as an “accepted” party. However, during the 2024 electoral campaign, increasing far-right activity was recorded, especially targeting British Muslims. Tommy Robinson and other former EDL members have likely successfully began leveraging online media, thus mostly abandoning local support-building, to achieve “viral” status for their identitarian efforts and ideology.
The 28 July protest, and the riots of 30-31 July, almost certainly underscore the growing success of this online-based approach. Even if remaining outside the UK, it is highly likely that Robinson will continue to encourage sectarian violence in the country. Finally, a likely relevant factor in boosting online far-right recruitment and operational efforts is that of language. UK-based channels are almost certainly more significantly influenced by American ones, and by English-language discourse coming from Europe and beyond. While the large diversity of narratives and discourses likely disincentivises local organising or the mainstreaming of specific grievances, it likely contributes to amplifying the otherwise limited media capabilities of UK far-right groups.
France: Sabotage threat demonstrates ongoing security vulnerabilities.
In the early hours of 26 July, fires were reported at multiple signal boxes and electricity installations at five stations scattered across the north of France, all serving lines leading to Paris. The damage that resulted affected the first weekend of the Olympics, causing massive delays. In the following days, further cases of sabotage, targeting energy and telecommunications infrastructure, were reported in various – often isolated and rural – parts of the country, resulting in further limited disruptions. Left-wing activists opposed to the Olympics have been arrested in connection with the fires and sabotage.
Solace Global Assessment:
There is a strong anti-Olympic Games movement in France that has its ideological roots in the extreme and anarchist left, but also overlaps considerably with other activist networks, including the environmentalist one. The action on 26 July, and the further simultaneous sabotage of multiple telecom installations, demonstrates at least a level of organisational capacity on the part of the saboteurs. This has led some observers to speculate that responsibility for the act fell on foreign intelligence services (likely, Russia).
Reports of Russia both directly employing its intelligence assets to carry out operations or, more frequently, funding and indirectly ordering dissatisfied activists and individuals within target countries to attack local sites have been widespread. There is a realistic possibility that some of these recent cases of low-sophistication sabotage were indirectly sponsored by the Kremlin. However, it is important to note that these sabotage actions are extremely low-cost in terms of the tools required, and their targets are often so isolated as to be impossible to defend or monitor. Consequently, there is a higher likelihood that the action was carried out by anti-Olympic protest groups, with third-country influence likely only playing a limited role, if any at all.
Regardless of attribution, actors, both inside and outside France, have likely monitored the success, deniability and complications regarding investigating these attacks and may seek to imitate them- as recently demonstrated by the sabotage of a German railway. While unlikely to have been directly responsible for this case, it is almost certain that Moscow is currently seeking to disrupt the Olympics and to destabilise or undermine France by carrying out cyber, information, and other operations. It is almost certain that, in the coming weeks, further sabotage actions will be attempted by a variety of different groups. These actions are likely to affect travel and business and could be so severe as to directly threaten life.
Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Iran: Hamas Political Bureau Chairman assassinated in Iran
On 30 July, the Hamas Political Bureau Chairman, Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated when staying at an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force facility in northern Iran. Haniyeh had reportedly only been in Iran for a day and was attending the inauguration of the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Pezeshkian has vowed to make Israel regret what he declared was a cowardly action. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei has stated that avenging Haniyeh’s death is Tehran’s duty, and Iran’s formidable IRGC has stated that Israel will face “a harsh and painful response” from Iran and its allies- almost certainly referring to Tehran’s wider network of proxy forces.
The assassination of Haniyeh was the second major strike conducted by Israel, with Hezbollah’s second in command, Fuad Shakr killed in southern Beirut less than twelve hours earlier.
Solace Global Assessment:
Haniyeh’s assassination in the Iranian capital will be a huge embarrassment for Tehran and raises questions over the regime’s ability to protect the leaders of its strategic proxy forces within its territory. The attack demonstrates Israel’s ability to infiltrate Iran and strike high-value targets (HVTs), a strong warning to the regime itself and any proxy force leader.
Little is known about how the assassination was conducted but imagery of the targeted strike indicates that the weapons system had a small payload. Reports vary as to whether it was an explosively laden drone, short-range missile or bomb smuggled into the complex months before. All of these systems indicate that the attack was likely conducted or set up from within Iranian territory, an act that would severely undermine Iranian security.
Moreover, Israel’s ability to locate, track and target Haniyeh within such condensed timeframes indicates a high level of intelligence penetration into Iran and significant weaknesses in Iranian counterintelligence. The nature of the attack and intelligence flaws may also point towards Israel being able to leverage inside help from disaffected Iranians. Many Iranians are greatly dissatisfied with the regime and there are even indications of grassroots support for Israel, largely driven by the repressive nature of the regime which has killed and abused thousands.
There is evidence to suggest that Israel’s 19 April retaliatory strike on an Iranian military site was conducted with quadcopters from within the country.
An attack within Iran itself during a presidential inauguration will be interpreted as an attack on the country’s sovereignty and honour, a situation that will likely warrant a stronger response from Tehran. While Iran has promised severe consequences, it will have to factor in several variables before it retaliates. A major escalation will likely see increased sanctions on Iran and jeopardise Pezeshkian’s attempts to reconcile with the West. A major escalation will likely be met with Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear programme sending it back years, a development the regime will want to avoid as it is closer than ever to achieving a nuclear deterrent, one of the regime’s primary objectives.
For these reasons, Iran may seek to conduct a sub-threshold attack that sends a statement to Israel without provoking a regional conflict. Its first option is to leverage its proxy forces to conduct a coordinated missile and drone attack similar in nature to the April attack. To increase the success of this attack it may use its proxy forces to strike from closer range, providing Israel and its allies less time to provide early warning and prepare air defences. In such a scenario, debris from intercepted projectiles will pose a major risk to anyone in Israel and countries on the approach, such as Jordan, as evidenced by the April attack.
To avoid direct escalation, Iran may rely on Hezbollah and other proxy forces to strike Israel from Lebanon. This strategy allows Iran to preserve its own military assets and maintain plausible deniability, reducing the risk of direct conflict. With an arsenal of approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles, combined with its expertise in both conventional and unconventional tactics, Hezbollah is well-positioned to inflict damage on Israel while serving Iran’s interests.
Another option available to Iran is to attack Israeli interests or Jews globally, a tactic Iran has done numerous times before. For the people of Gaza, Haniyeh’s assassination may be to their detriment. Haniyeh was crucial in fostering diplomatic channels despite his limited influence in Gaza itself. His death may lead to a complete collapse of current ceasefire negotiations and may embolden hardliners within Hamas, potentially leading to a halt in peace talks and prolonging the conflict.
Mali: Wagner Group convoy ambushed in far northeast Mali
On 27 July, a multi-day battle concluded between the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), supported by Wagner Group, against Tuareg and Al-Qaeda insurgents. Approximately 50 or more Wagner combatants were killed in the battle, marking the biggest defeat for the Russian state-funded private military company (PMC) since they were deployed to Mali in 2021. The battle took place in Tinzaouaten in the far northeast of Mali, near the Algerian border.
Reportedly, a FAMa and Wagner armed convoy, consisting of approximately 20 vehicles, was deployed to find Tuareg insurgents. A Wagner statement on Telegram claims that their contingent, led by Sergei Shevchenko (callsign “Pond”), was initially successful in repelling attacks by Tuareg militants over multiple days, though suffered casualties. A sandstorm on 25 July then, however, forced the convoy to retreat into Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) territory, a jihadist affiliate of al-Qaeda. Regrouped Tuareg fighters then reportedly ambushed the convoy on 26 July. Forced onto disadvantageous low ground, the column was attacked by substantial numbers (allegedly close to a thousand fighters), leading to a rout. Retreating forces were then ambushed by JNIM fighters, who fought alongside Tuaregs according to some sources, though this has not been verified.
The Tuareg rebels fought under the banner of the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security, and Development (CSP-PSD), a coalition of Azawad Tuareg rebel groups. On 29 July, the Kyiv Post published a photograph depicting Tuareg rebels holding a Ukrainian flag, with what appears to be a Ukrainian advisor. A Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) official stated that Ukraine provided Azawad forces with key intelligence for the attack although a BBC investigation suggests that this photograph was likely doctored.
Solace Global Assessment:
The heavy losses suffered by the Russian PMC group is a major defeat in their ongoing campaign in Mali. Following their failed mutiny, Wagner Group was reorganised by Russian authorities with a renewed focus on its operations in the African theatre. Renamed to Africa Corps by the Russian Ministry of Defence in late 2023, Wagner Group is treated with suspicion by Russian military authorities, who likely aim to gradually replace long-serving Wagner veterans in the Sahel with new Africa Corps personnel.
The PMC have played a pivotal role in anti-insurgency operations in Mali since late 2021. After the May 2021 Malian coup, the junta sought to replace the military capability lost by withdrawn French and international forces. Wagner Group filled this vacuum, in exchange for access to highly profitable mines. This dynamic is almost certainly currently replicating in Niger, where Nigerien junta forces have recently suffered major defeats. Wagner have already deployed instructors to Niger.
The severe defeat in Tinzaouaten, however, is likely to influence the risk tolerance of Africa Corps commanders, which may factor into any future decisions regarding increased deployments to Niger. With already limited manpower, it is unlikely that Wagner will launch more deep operations into highly contested Malian territory in the coming months, which may enable insurgents to make further territorial gains. Additionally, the Russian military establishment may seek to exploit the defeat to accelerate the replacement of Wagner veterans with more loyal Africa Corps personnel.
The CSP-PSD are an Azawad Tuareg group. While the Malian military campaigns against CSP and JNIM overlap, the Azawad rebel coalition is primarily separatist, and not aligned with jihadism. The possible direct collaboration between Tuareg and JNIM forces in the battle, however, would be a notable development. The claims of Ukrainian involvement would be a significant development in the scope of Ukraine’s overseas operations. Though unconfirmed, there are strong suggestions that Ukraine has already previously deployed special forces in Sudan to fight against Russian paramilitary forces. Ukrainian intelligence (HUR) may just be engaging in information warfare, their possible involvement in the Malian battle raises several prospects. Firstly, it is likely that such a success would encourage HUR to emulate the tactics elsewhere, further expanding the geographic scope of the Ukraine War. Secondly, the involvement of JNIM in the battle is problematic, and HUR are likely to have received criticism from Western partners for potentially empowering jihadists. Thirdly, such Ukrainian involvement in the Sahel would likely accelerate the strategic realignment of the post-coup juntas in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, driving these governments further into the sphere of Russian influence.
Nigeria: Nationwide anti-government protests scheduled for 1-10 August turn violent
On 1 August, Nigerian police and troops increased security measures in Lagos, Abuja and multiple, other cities in anticipation of nationwide protests. The protests are over the country’s poor governance, soaring inflation, the deflation of the Naira currency and several other issues. The protests have been scheduled from 1 to 10 August and have been observed in multiple Nigerian towns and cities as well as long major roads such as the Abuja-Kaduna highway, leading to traffic congestion.
Nigerian police issued a statement saying that they are on nationwide alert and directed to “act and deal decisively” during anti-government demonstrations. Police action has included the use of tear gas and other crowd dispersal methods, including the firing of live ammunition. By Friday morning, the head of Amnesty International in Nigeria reported that at least 13 protesters had been killed and over 300 arrested. Multiple curfews have been enforced, including 24-hour curfews in Borno Starte and Kano State.
Solace Global Assessment:
The protests in Nigeria follow the recent doubling of the minimum wage that was ultimately accepted by many of the country’s unions. However, the rise was much lower than what many were demanding and the rise has failed to offset the Tinubu administration’s devaluation of the Naira in June 2023 and January 2024. Under Tinubu, food inflation in Nigeria currently stands at 40 per cent, the highest in three decades and the reintroduction of fuel subsidies has drained almost half of Nigeria’s oil revenues, curtailing the government’s ability to invest.
In the south of Nigeria, the economic situation is likely the main driver of the protests. In the north, concerns over Nigeria’s security are likely providing more energy to the unrest. Unchecked banditry and a resurgence in Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and other extremist attacks have almost certainly increased concerns over internal security in the north. Many Nigerians in the north have been displaced by endemic violence and the growing threat of kidnappings, with extremist groups almost certainly exploiting the continued destabilisation of bordering Niger. The Federal Government has tightened security at the borders, likely out of fears of cross-border incursions from militant groups seeking to exploit the unrest and current overstretching of the security services.
With the nationwide protests set to last for several days, multiple scenarios could surface that would likely exacerbate the unrest and likely result in an escalation in violence. As observed in Bangladesh, the government’s excessive use of force is likely to sustain demonstrations. The government’s refusal to agree to any of the protestors’ demands could also catalyse more protests. Given the country’s complicated tribal, ethnic and religious dynamics, there is always a possibility of the protests provoking existing tensions. Lastly, extremists may attempt to target large crowds and undermine the government’s ability to provide security, a development that will likely aggravate the current unrest.
South Africa: Police raid secret military camp training 95 Libyan nationals
On 26 July, South African police detained 95 Libyan nationals after a morning raid on a suspected secret military training camp near the town of White River, approximately 350 kilometres east of Johannesburg. Police issued a statement indicating that the Libyans had entered the country on study visas to train as security guards but initial police investigations suggest that they have received military training. According to South Africa’s National Prosecuting Authority, the Libyan nationals will now be charged for misrepresentations on their visa applications. The authorities are now investigating to ascertain if there are any more illegal bases in other parts of South Africa.
Solace Global Assessment:
The discovery of a secret military training camp has raised concerns that violent extremist organisations (VEOs) have exploited South Africa’s huge private security industry to train militants in third parties where they would likely attract less attention. There is currently no clear indication as to what group or movement the Libyans are associated with. However, Libya has been in a state of civil war since 2011 after the NATO-backed overthrow of long-term ruler Muammar Gaddafi.
The Libyan government has denied any knowledge of this operation and initial investigations indicate that the men are from eastern Libya, an area currently under the control of General Haftar’s Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA). Moreover, the LNA which currently controls most of Libya receives funding from several external actors, such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia as well as from its own oil revenues. This places it in an advantageous position to fund the external training of soldiers within South Africa’s highly developed private security industry.
VEOs affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda (AQ) have a presence in Libya, particularly in the south of the country. However, militant groups like these would more likely exploit Libya’s and the wider region’s instability and ungoverned spaces to conduct training at this scale, would be under more foreign surveillance and would likely struggle to finance this level of training.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
The UK’s Conservative Party announced its party leadership candidates
Following a disastrous general election, the leader of the Conservative Party and former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak resigned from his post. A successor will be nominated at the party’s September conference, after votes by party MPs and party members. Suella Braverman, former Home Secretary and representative of the right-wing of the party, opted not to run citing differences with the majority of conservative MPs.
Of the six candidates, Priti Patel, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick represent the party’s right wing, the latter being in the same current as Braverman. James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Mel Stride are close to Sunak and are portraying themselves as “unity” candidates. It is highly likely that, to cover from the threat posed by the Reform Party, the Tory leadership contest will see a shift of the party to the right.
Pay deal likely to end doctor’s strikes in UK
Months of strikes by the UK’s junior doctors may come to an abrupt end after the new Labour government agreed to increase their pay by over 22 per cent. The deal was announced on 29 July by the Labour government and the British Medical Association (BMA), which represents around 50,000 junior doctors. The decentralised nature of the protests was not hugely disruptive, however, the strikes have overburdened an overstretched National Health Service (NHS) and interrupted the provision of healthcare.
Macron surprisingly approves Moroccan line on Western Sahara
On 30 July, French President Macron released a statement in support of Morocco’s 2007 plan on Western Sahara. The Algerian government reacted by immediately recalling their ambassador in Paris, thus sparking a diplomatic crisis during the Olympics. Macron’s statement likely reflects the changing balance of power in northwest Africa, with Algerian influence waning thanks to decreasing French reliance on its oil (about eight per cent of the oil imported by France is Algerian) and a growing appeal of Morocco as a diplomatic and trading partner.
Spanish PM’s wife under investigation for corruption
On 30 July, Spain’s socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez refused to testify as a witness in a judicial investigation into his wife. The case involves allegations of corruption and influence peddling against his wife. Sanchez and his wife deny the allegations and have denounced them as baseless and orchestrated by right-wing political foes, including the legal activist group called Manos Limpias, or “Clean Hands.” Previous cases of corruption against Pedro’s wife have resulted in thousands of supporters rallying behind the prime minister on the streets of Madrid with similar scenes likely as the case develops.
Turkey blocks Instagram, gives no explanation
On 2 August, Turkish authorities blocked Instagram in the country, without however making any public announcement about the ban, nor giving any explanation for it. It is highly likely that the ban is linked to previous accusations, raised by Turkish government officials, that the social network was censoring tributes to Hamas leader Haniyeh.
Israeli far-right attacks detention facility
On 29 July, far-right, religious fundamentalist politician Zvi Sukkot and other far-right Zionist leaders led crowds of supporters to storm the Sde Teiman detention camp, near the Israeli-Gaza border. Nine IDF reservists were held at the base, facing possible charges for allegedly sexually abusing a Palestinian prisoner. The protesters broke into the facility’s perimeter and succeeded in pressuring authorities into later releasing the accused.
Reports of the alleged rapes have highly likely demonstrated growing cracks within the Israeli parliament and coalition, with the radical right continuing to gain significant political traction, and members of it (including Likud party politicians) either denying the suspects’ alleged crimes or outright defending them. The riot likewise demonstrates a growing domestic threat from nationalist-religious extremists, capable of organising quickly to carry out violent actions.
ANC expel former South African president from party
South Africa’s former president, Jacob Zuma, has been expelled from the African National Congress (ANC) party for supporting the rival party uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) in May’s parliamentary election, which led to the ANC losing its majority for the first time since the apartheid era. Zuma has 21 days to appeal and challenge the expulsion. Despite his tenure being marred by corruption scandals and economic decline, Zuma still commands a lot of support in South Africa and his supporters could trigger unrest.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
The EU and US impose sanctions on Rwanda-backed M23 group
The new wave of sanctions targeting M23 leaders, which were announced on 26 July, is highly unlikely to affect conditions on the ground in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) eastern provinces, where M23 rebels, supported – according to new UN reports – by thousands of Rwandan troops, continue to advance against the overstretched local military. Recently, M23 has likely increased GPS-jamming to disrupt air traffic in the mineral-rich North Kivu region. M23 advances will almost certainly continue accelerating the illegal trade of minerals to the detriment of the DRC and the benefit of Rwanda and of large multinational companies.
Islamist extremist Anjem Choudary sentenced by UK court
Following his conviction on charges of running a multinational terrorist network. UK radical preacher Anjem Choudary was sentenced to a minimum of 28 years in prison following a multinational operation involving US, UK and Canadian security forces. There is a realistic possibility of protests and retaliatory lone-wolf attacks following the sentencing. Unlike other leadership figures in extremist organisations, Choudary maintained an extremely visible media presence, appearing in multiple mainstream legacy media broadcasts since the early 2000s.
Erdogan threatens to send Turkish forces to Israel
Turkish President Erdogan, the leader of a NATO member state, announced, on 28 July, that Ankara has the capability to invade Israel over the war on Gaza. The statement is almost certainly primarily an effort to bolster the president’s support among the Turkish electorate, which is widely pro-Palestinian. Still, Erdogan’s threats are also likely aimed at putting further pressure on NATO allies to adopt a more neutral stance in the conflict and to effectively restrain Israel’s policies in Gaza.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Sabotage conducted against German rail network
German authorities are investigating an arson attack on the railway line between Hamburg and Bremen which occurred on 29 July. In an attack reminiscent of recent arson attacks in France before the Olympic ceremony, unidentified perpetrators set fire to a cable shaft near Bremen’s Bürgerpark using an incendiary agent. Germany’s state security agency (Bundeskriminalamt) is now investigating whether the attack was politically motivated but has not released any information regarding suspects.
Spanish man dies from Ebola-like disease
The man had reportedly been bitten by a tick, and developed symptoms associated with the Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF). The disease is extremely dangerous, with no vaccine available and a mortality rate of 40 per cent – depending on age and health factors. Increasingly hot summers have favoured the reproduction of ticks in Spain, increasing the transmission rate and extending the period of the year during which the disease is most prevalent.
Asia–Pacific
Bangladesh: Student protests expand to wider society and spread across country
Bangladesh, including Dhaka, Sylhet, Chattogram, Rangpur, Barishal, and Bogura. Local police forces have used crowd control measures such as tear gas and sound grenades to disperse crowds and maintain public order.
Since student protests over Bangladesh’s job quota system erupted in mid-July, it is estimated that over 200 have been killed, largely as a result of the police firing into crowds and over 10,000 people have been detained. The most recent “March for Justice” protests were organised by the Students Against Discrimination movement over the mass killings, arrests, attacks and disappearances of civilians.
Solace Global Assessment:
Students have been protesting for over three weeks against efforts to reinstate quotas in civil service jobs for relatives of veterans from the country’s 1971 war for independence from Pakistan. This system allocated a third of public sector jobs to this demographic- a system deemed unnecessarily exclusionary to the student population, many of whom are struggling to secure jobs. The government’s violent suppression of these protests has inspired a new round of protests that have taken on a much wider geographical footprint within the country.
Moreover, the protests now involve a much wider cross-section of Bangladeshi society, including teachers, parents, civil society members, and cultural organisations. Thousands of people have also changed their profile pictures on social media to a red colour in a sign of solidarity with the students. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government has denied responsibility, deflecting the blame to the main opposition parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami Party for the unrest, the latter of which has now been banned under anti-terrorism legislation. This has led to a government crackdown on the opposition.
Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, the European Union, has postponed talks over a new economic deal over the government’s actions. The diversity of people now involved in the protests, the government’s continued use of force and detentions, the crackdown on the opposition and the refusal of government officials to resign over the violence are likely to sustain unrest for days to come. The ongoing protests and government responses could lead to increased international pressure and widespread civil disobedience, disrupting daily life and economic stability. If the government maintains its hardline stance, it risks alienating the youth and wider society, fostering a stronger opposition and larger protest movements- trends that may deter foreign investment and disrupt supply chains in a country with huge textile, agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir, India: Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) target Urdu speakers with new media division
One month after Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) announced the creation of an Urdu-language media division on 28 June, ISKP published their first issue of a dedicated Urdu language Nida-e-Khorasan (Voice of Khorasan). Urdu is the national language of Pakistan, and widely spoken by Muslims in northern India and Kashmir. The publication had significant content dedicated to Kashmir.
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) also published a new issue of its Urdu-language magazine, Nawai Ghazwa-e-Hind (The Voice of the Battle of India) magazine, which similarly focused on Kashmir.
Solace Global Assessment:
The publications of two Urdu-language pieces focused on Kashmir by the rival transnational jihadist groups ISKP and AQIS highly likely indicate a strategic shift by both groups, seeking to exploit a recent surge in violence in Jammu and Kashmir. While the much smaller AQIS has historically specifically targeted Urdu-speaking jihadist sympathisers with their publications before, the new publication by ISKP reveals a notable development in their propaganda strategy.
Founded in 2014, ISKP seeks to establish a caliphate in Afghanistan. ISKP has grown to be one of the most capable and ambitious transnational terrorist organisations in the world, successfully having carried out multiple attacks internationally. This year alone, ISKP are thought to be responsible for both the 3 January Kerman bombings that killed over 100 people in Iran, and the 22 March Crocus City Hall attack that killed 145 people in Moscow, Russia.
ISKP’s propaganda and outreach have proven to be highly successful at enabling fundraising and recruitment from the former-Soviet Union in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and European authorities have arrested multiple suspected jihadists from these regions for plotting terrorist attacks. On 31 May, a Chechen who was in communication with ISKP was arrested in France for an alleged plot targeting the Paris Olympics, and on 4 July, nine suspects from Central Asia in contact with ISKP were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands.
Al-Azaim is ISKP’s media outlet, a considerable transnational propaganda network that exploits sectarianism and the challenges faced by minority groups across Central and South Asia. “Media jihad” is considered a crucial strategy by ISKP, and the Voice of Khorasan publication is ISKP’s primary propaganda instrument. The development in ISKP propaganda towards targeting Urdu-speaking populations threatens to grow ISKP’s influence in Pakistan, India, Jammu and Kashmir, and amongst global diaspora populations.
In Pakistan, where Urdu is the national language, ISKP are thought to be primarily responsible for a recent targeted assassination campaign in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The newly published edition of Voice of Khorasan makes specific reference to Pakistani military figures, and ISKP are likely seeking to exploit sectarian tensions against Pakistan’s Shia minority.
In India, the regular circulation of anti-Hindu propaganda indicates ISKP efforts to exploit the marginalisation of India’s significant Muslim minority population. In Jammu and Kashmir, a union territory administered by India with a Muslim majority in Kashmir, there has been a recent surge in militant attacks targeting Hindus. ISKP are highly likely seeking to exploit a perceived power vacuum in Kashmiri jihadist networks, evidenced by the new Voice of Khorasan’s focus on Kashmir.
Globally, particularly in Europe, ISKP’s expansion of media efforts targeting Urdu speakers will likely broaden ISKP’s appeal amongst extremist sympathisers in Urdu-speaking diaspora communities.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Thai court to consider dissolving Move Forward Party
On 7 August, the constitutional court of Thailand will rule as to whether or not it should dissolve the progressive Move Forward political party. The party, which won the most seats in the 2023 elections, has been targeted by Thailand’s conservative base and military for some of its policies such as reform of the country’s strict lèse-majesté laws. The party has great appeal with Thailand’s youth and a move to dissolve the party is likely to trigger protests, as evidenced by the 2020 dissolution of the Future Forward Party.
Calls for renewed protests in France’s New Caledonia
Cellule de Coordination des Actions de Terrain (CCAT), the main independence group in New Caledonia has called for renewed protests in the coming days in an attempt to abolish the electoral reform bill once and for all. The CCAT is likely attempting to exploit France’s current focus on the Olympics and the event’s publicity fir its own cause.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
The United States Pacific Command (PACOM) has announced that it will upgrade its military command in Japan in response to the growing threat from China. As part of the overhaul, the US will increase its coordination with Japanese forces and the US Forces Japan would be upgraded to a joint force headquarters with expanded missions. The move also aligns with Japan’s gradual shift from post-war pacifism, characterised by increased defence spending and more military cooperation with South Korea and the US. The move will almost certainly be condemned as escalatory by China who will likely conduct reactionary military drills in a demonstration of strength.
Canadian warship passes through the Taiwan Strait
On 1 August, the Canadian frigate transited through the Taiwan Strait, passing through an area that China claims as part of its territorial waters. The transit, which drew Beijing’s ire, was likely meant to send a signal following last week’s transit of four Chinese and Russian bombers in close proximity to Alaskan and Canadian airspace. Both US and Canadian officials are likely increasingly willing to respond to Chinese (and Russian) shows of force in the Pacific.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Series of landslides kills hundreds in Indian state of Kerala
On 30 July, a series of landslides in Kerala has resulted in the deaths of at least 166 people with an estimated 200 still missing. Hundreds of homes were destroyed in Wayanad by two massive landslides following five times the normal rainfall, causing the Eruvazhanji River to overflow and submerge villages.
Rescue efforts have been hindered by adverse weather and washed-away roads which have disrupted access to the affected locations. The extent of the damage has likely been compounded by the practice of building informal houses on unstable hill terrain and the clearing of forests for plantations. This has compromised the soil and reduced vegetation interception, increasing the area’s susceptibility to landslides.
High temperatures recorded in China’s east coast
On 2 August, temperatures of above 40 degrees Celsius were recorded in China’s east coast regions, with particularly severe heat recorded in Shanghai and Hangzhou. July 2024 had the highest temperatures on record for that month in China, and Chinese authorities issued warnings for other provinces further inland. Extremely high heat can result in power outages and the overwhelming of electrical infrastructure. In densely populated urban centres, this is not only highly likely to have a severe economic impact, but may also result in the breakdown of public services, increased wait times for healthcare services, and other developments likely to pose a threat to residents and travellers.
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Business Resilience: Lessons from CrowdStrike Outages
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The recent CrowdStrike outages served as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities in our digital infrastructure, affecting millions and disrupting essential services.
Challenges faced with Software as a Service (SaaS) & Security as a Service
In today’s business landscape, reliance on Software as a Service (SaaS) providers is fundamental to enable cloud-based working. Recent global outages triggered by CrowdStrike updates have underscored the need for effective risk management and mitigation strategies.
Peter Davies, Chief Information Security Officer at Solace Global, reflects on these disruptions, combining his cybersecurity expertise with a personal account of managing the chaos during his travels. His insights underscore the critical need for robust risk management and effective contingency planning.
Travelling During the Crowdstrike Outage
When news broke of massive outages affecting 8.5 million Microsoft Windows PCs and servers – disrupting crucial services like medical operations, airlines, and banking – I initially suspected a zero-day vulnerability or a state-sponsored cyberattack.
At that time, I was en route from France to England with my family. My thoughts raced through potential scenarios, such as flight cancellations and the challenge of using credit cards for emergency transportation or accommodation. This experience drove home the importance of contingency planning, such as arranging for cash withdrawals to cover unforeseen travel needs.
Thankfully, our flight went off without a hitch. However, the irony of withdrawing money at the airport only to be notified by my banking app about exorbitant fees highlighted an important lesson. Effective risk management in business mirrors this scenario: having clear, documented processes and procedures in place is essential.
These documents should detail the impacts on people and technology, ensuring swift and effective communication with all relevant stakeholders.
Just as in personal finance, robust business resilience strategies enable faster recovery and cost savings by minimising the need for high-stress, spontaneous decision-making during crises.
How a CrowdStrike Update Caused an Outage: Root Cause and Vendor Response
The root cause of the outage was traced back to issues with CrowdStrike updates to their End Point Detection and Response (EDR) sensor content which was released via channel 291. The update was to mitigate a Command-and-Control framework which allows threat actors to remotely control a victim’s PC which has been compromised with malware. These frameworks allow threat actors to exfiltrate data from the targets network, launch botnet attacks and distributed denial of service (DDOS).
Fortunately, this issue affected only Microsoft Windows machines, as the patch was not deployed to macOS or Linux, which do not use channel 291 for named pipe execution. This limitation prevented an even larger-scale disruption.
Whilst CrowdStrike customers can control which version of the EDR sensor is installed via configuration settings, they have no control over the Rapid Response Content which is designed to respond to the ever-changing threat landscape and thereby protecting the customer from new threats.
However, serious errors in these platforms can jeopardise the Information Security triad – Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability – leading to potential reputational damage and regulatory fines. For instance, if data has been impacted, then GDPR could impose fines of up to 4% of the company’s annual revenue.
To address these issues, The CEO of CrowdStrike has announced improvements to the Software Development lifecycle and enhancements (CrowdStrike, 2024), which will in the future allow customers greater control over the content delivery system.
However, this introduces a new paradox for the customer: delaying content updates to avoid outages might increase the risk of vulnerability exposure. Ideally, content delivery updates would be configurable, allowing for critical security updates to be quickly implemented and enabling less critical updates to be delayed for a short period.
How Cybercriminals Took Advantage of the CrowdStrike Outage to Spread Malware
In the wake of the CrowdStrike outage, cybercriminals seized the opportunity to exploit the situation by distributing malware disguised as recovery tools. It is essential to have stringent protocols to ensure that recovery tools are only downloaded from known, reputable vendors, especially during high-stress periods and especially when security privileges are elevated.
It is recommended that as part of the mitigation strategies that approved site URLs are stored and readily accessible to prevent falling foul of URL spoofing or accidently following an incorrect link. By maintaining a secure, vetted list of URLs, organisations can better safeguard against opportunistic threats and ensure the integrity of their recovery processes.
Business Resilience Planning: Lessons Learnt from BIAs and Third-Party Supply Chain Insights
A key aspect of business resilience is understanding third-party supply chains and conducting comprehensive Business Impact Analyses (BIAs). High-level BIAs might overlook critical infrastructure dependencies, potentially leaving an organisation vulnerable to unforeseen knock-on-effects. To mitigate this, mapping critical operating systems and hardware stacks provides a broader view of how accidents or targeted attacks on specific systems could impact operations, enhancing overall preparedness.
While technological solutions such as Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) systems are invaluable for managing cyber incidents by offering insights into security events, they often fall short in providing context about the broader business impact of affected systems.
To address this gap, it’s important to complement SIEM data with a clear understanding of business impacts to ensure effective decision-making during disruptions by managing and prioritising critical incidents so that key systems are prioritised and brought back online quickly.
By having consolidated signal intelligence from SIEM systems alongside a robust grasp of critical business functions and mitigation strategies prepares organisations for potential incidents. Conducting desktop exercises or fire drills can further refine response strategies, uncover new risks, and identify opportunities for improvement. These simulated scenarios help in testing responses to known threats, ultimately strengthening resilience and enhancing preparedness.
Future-Proofing Risk Management: Balancing Updates, Offline Recovery, and Key Security
Some key considerations for future risk management and business resilience based on CrowdStrike:
1. Managing Automatic Updates
While disabling all automatic updates is neither practical nor advisable, adopting a balanced approach to patch management is crucial. Consider implementing a hold-off period of 5 to 10 days for non-critical updates. This strategy allows time for other users to identify potential issues and for vendors to address any problems before the updates impact your organisation. Prioritise and apply patches for zero-day vulnerabilities or severe issues as-soon-as-possible to ensure timely protection.
2. Enhancing Recovery with Offline Machines
Incorporate offline PCs that are updated only at predefined intervals into your recovery strategy. These off-grid machines provide several benefits:
- Secure Operations: Ensure a safe environment for sensitive activities like banking and IT access during outages.
- Known Clean Systems: Maintain a clean, unaffected PC for critical tasks.
- Troubleshooting Aid: Use offline machines to access resources and troubleshoot issues in the event of a core infrastructure failure.
3. Securing Key Information
During the CrowdStrike incident, the availability of BitLocker keys was essential for recovery. To avoid similar challenges in the future, store crucial encryption keys and other essential information in a secondary, secure location. Ideally, this should be on separate infrastructure to enhance resilience and ensure that you can access these keys when needed for recovery operations.
By implementing these considerations, organisations can improve their risk management strategies and enhance their overall business resilience.
Optimising Business Recovery: Key Considerations for Impact Assessment and Resilience
Understanding the business impact of failures is important for ensuring organisational resilience. To facilitate better outcomes and faster recovery decisions, businesses must enhance visibility into risks and interdependencies. While some aspects of infrastructure may be challenging to fully mitigate due to cost or complexity, a comprehensive grasp of business impacts enables more effective decision-making and resilience planning.
Effective communication with the board of directors is essential. Providing them with visibility into current risks, along with a register of acceptable risks, ensures informed oversight and supports a secure operating environment.
The CrowdStrike outage serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of modern business infrastructures and the importance of thorough planning, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies to maintain business continuity and security.
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Peter Davies
About the Author
With over 25 years of experience, Peter Davies has been a pivotal figure in advancing business resilience across various organisations. His expertise includes developing risk awareness cultures, establishing global Security Operations Centres, and implementing specialist technologies to manage travellers, workforce, and business assets in challenging environments.
As Chief Information Security Officer at Solace Global, Peter oversees the product management of the Solace Secure platform, which supports traveller safety and enterprise resilience.
Peter Davies, MSc Cyber Security & Human Factors
Chief Information Security Office & Product Manager
Enhancing resilience and business continuity planning.
Solace Global Risk is a leading provider of comprehensive risk management solutions, serving clients globally with a commitment to excellence. With a worldwide presence and a team of seasoned experts, Solace Global Risk empowers organisations to navigate complex risk landscapes with confidence and resilience.
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Risk Management Software
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Your duty of care doesn’t end the moment your people set foot in their destination – and neither does ours.
From transfers to ongoing security and emergency evacuations, our travel risk services always have you covered.
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Connect with our experts for advice on enhancing your risk strategies and business continuity.
Executive Summary
- Disruption to France’s high-speed rail network before the Olympic ceremony demonstrates the ease of low-sophistication sabotage and will likely inspire similar incidents throughout the Games.
- Israel’s response to a deadly Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv will almost certainly result in increased attacks on Israel but also an escalation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- It is highly likely that escalating jihadist attacks in Niger indicate rapidly deteriorating security, it is a realistic possibility that ungoverned spaces may be exploited to launch regional attacks.
- A militant attack on a military outpost in northern Togo likely signals the destabilisation of the Sahel region and the intent of Islamist groups to expand their operations towards coastal West Africa.
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AMER
USA: Biden Withdraws from Presidential Race; Trump Declares Harris Illegitimate
USA and Mexico: Sinaloa Cartel Leaders Arrested in Texas
Colombia: Surge in FARC Attacks and First Drone-Related Death
EMEA
France: Sabotage Targets Rail Network Ahead of Olympic Ceremony
Germany: Iranian-linked organisations banned
Yemen: IDF Strikes Yemen After Houthis’ First Fatal Attack on Israel
Niger: Jihadist Groups Launch Series of Attacks Against Junta Forces
Togo: Islamist Group Conducts Mass-Casualty Attack on Northern Army Outpost
APAC
Myanmar: Junta Forces Surrender Regional Military Command Headquarters
Taiwan and the Philippines: Typhoon Gaemi Causes Flooding and Disruptions
North, Central and South America
United States: President Biden Drops Out of Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris
On 21 July, US President Joe Biden announced that he would be ending his bid for re-election in 2024, and instead endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden’s announcement followed weeks of speculation about the president’s health and fitness that followed a dismal debate performance against Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.
Following the debate, Biden was asked to step down by senior Democrats and major party donors. Harris’ new presidential bid was met with considerable enthusiasm from the party, with the incumbent vice president raising more than USD 100 million in donations in a matter of days.
Trump has questioned the legality of the swap and has not indicated if he will debate Harris.
Solace Global Assessment:
The announcement is likely to affect Trump’s chances of election in 2024. The former president narrowly escaped an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and subsequent polls indicated that his popularity among voters slightly surpassed Biden’s. Harris is, on paper, a stronger Democrat candidate against Trump, and the party leaders are likely betting that she will be able to better reach on-the-fence voters than the current president.
The Republican Party is likely still struggling to adjust its electoral narratives in the aftermath of the Pennsylvania assassination attempt. While Trump called for unity and pluralism in his post-shooting appearance at the Republican National Convention (RNC), other senior members of the party reiterated old conspiracy theories and illiberal talking points. The discrepancy almost certainly demonstrates the entrenchment of “Trumpism” in the GOP, and the recent assassination attempt highly likely unified the party base away from the moderate wing of the party.
Moreover, Trump’s campaign recently received notable endorsements, most importantly from multiple tech billionaires including Elon Musk, owner of X.com. While Harris’ success in quickly amassing the support of the key Democrat electorate, the momentum of Trump’s campaign may prove hard to stop.
Finally, Trump’s language, which seemingly identifies Harris as an “illegitimate” candidate, could have serious security implications. If Trump were to lose the election, these discourses could be leveraged by the ex-president and by militant right-wing activists to dismiss the 2024 elections as fraudulent. While a repeat of the attempted “January 6” insurrection is highly unlikely, such developments could drive cases of domestic terrorism, civil unrest, and other forms of politically motivated violence.
United States and Mexico: Sinaloa Cartel Boss and El Chapo’s Son Apprehended in Texas
On 25 July, the US Justice Department announced that the co-founder and suspected current leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada was arrested in El Paso, Texas. During the joint Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), and United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) operation, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, the son of Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán, the cartel’s other co-founder, was also arrested.
The exact details of the operation have yet to be released. However, early reports indicate that the cartel members were lured onto a plane supposedly heading to the south of Mexico which actually flew to the US.
Solace Global Assessment:
The Sinaloa Cartel is considered the largest drug supplier to the US and in recent years has hugely increased its smuggling of fentanyl to the US, a drug which is now the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18 to 45. Their apprehension may temporarily disrupt the cartel’s operations but is unlikely to have any meaningful long-term effect regarding disruption or deterrence.
Their capture could lead to a power vacuum within the Sinaloa Cartel which is likely to trigger infighting among cartel factions, a scenario that will almost certainly lead to violent clashes on the streets of Mexican territory which they control, including the major cities of Culiacan and Durango, and even parts of Chiapas in the far south. Long-term, the arrest of the leadership may lead to increased fragmentation of the cartel, another scenario that will almost certainly lead to increased violence.
Rival cartels like the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) may interpret this lack of leadership as a weakness and seek to exploit this opportunity to expand their influence and control over lucrative areas. This is most likely to manifest itself in the areas disputed between the Sinaloa Cartel and rival cartels. One prominent example is the major tourist city of Tijuana, where territorial disputes have been fierce given the city’s strategic location near the US border and the lucrative tourist market within Tijuana.
Colombia: Increase in FARC Attacks Throughout Colombia and First Drone-related Death
Throughout the reporting period, there has been a spate of attacks attributed to dissident groups belonging to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People’s Army (FARC) guerilla group. The majority of the attacks have been targeted at the Colombian army or police and most were located in southwest Colombia, particularly in the Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Huila departments. However, there have also been several militant attacks in Colombia’s northeastern department of Arauca close to the Venezuelan border.
On 24 July, suspected FARC dissidents dropped a grenade onto a football field in El Plateado, Cauca department, killing a 10-year-old boy and injuring at least a dozen injuries. The attack took place during the middle of a cultural and sports week being held in the district and marks the first deadly use of a drone in Colombia’s war with FARC.
Solace Global Assessment:
Attacks in southwest Colombia were likely conducted by more than one FARC dissident group, with several rejecting President Petro’s plans for “total peace”. Several dissident groups, including the Carlos Patiño front and the Second Marquetalia are known to operate in the area and are vying for control of a main drug trafficking route to the South Pacific known as the Micay Canyon and much of its surrounding environment. The IED attack was likely in response to the refusal of local residents to expel army troops from the area- an established tactic of many of the dissident groups.
Several of the other attacks can likely be attributed to the largest FARC dissident group, Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC). The government ended a ceasefire agreement with FARC-EMC on 16 July and has recently arrested several of the group’s leaders, with attacks potentially being a form of retribution. FARC-EMC is assessed to have as many as 4,000 fighters and operates in over 200 of Colombia’s 1,100 municipalities. Increased attacks across Colombia are likely a result of these developments, with simultaneous attacks across the country potentially overstretching Colombia’s armed forces.
This trend will be exacerbated if FARC-EMC coordinates or cooperates with other dissident groups like the Second Marquetalia, with both groups known to work together in the past to capitalise on the lucrative drug trade. FARC militants have increasingly used drones to drop munitions on targets, a tactic that has been used to good effect in the Middle East and Ukraine. This will likely become an established tactic of FARC, with drones offering a level of accessibility in Colombia’s rural and mountainous environment, and one that will help them engage superior government forces at a distance.
Should there be a major escalation in fighting, then it is almost certain that the kidnapping risk across the country will increase as this has traditionally been a major source of revenue for FARC dissidents.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Netanyahu gives fourth address to US Congress.
On 24 July, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivered his fourth address to a joint session of the US Congress in Washington DC, seeking support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Protests against the war greeted Netanyahu outside and inside Congress, with Representative Rashida Tlaib holding a sign calling him a “war criminal.”
Netanyahu denounced the protesters and accused the International Criminal Court of false accusations. Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, Netanyahu reiterated a hardline stance, calling for increased US military aid to ensure a decisive victory against Hamas.
Panama security forces scheduled to start deporting migrants
Panama’s security forces are scheduled to start deporting migrants who try to enter the country through the southern Darien Gap. The new government campaigned on an anti-migrant platform and quickly signed a deal with the US to receive funding for its deportation efforts.
Polls suggest President Maduro will lose the Venezuelan presidential election
The Venezuelan presidential candidates have been holding their last rallies with the election set to take place on 28 July. Current polling indicates that the incumbent President Nicolás Maduro is set to lose the election to former diplomat Edmundo González. However, it is likely that Maduro will refuse to concede the election reminiscent of the presidential crisis of 2019.
The 2019 crisis resulted in widespread civil unrest, political instability, human rights abuses and frequent violent clashes between protestors and the security services. The event was accompanied by extensive sanctions on Venezuela which exacerbated an already fire humanitarian crisis and pushed Caracas towards US adversaries like Russia, China and Iran.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Cartel kills senior Mexico City police figure
On 22 July, Mexico City’s head of intelligence and police operations, Milton Morales Figueroa, was killed in a suspected drug cartel hit while on a family outing in Coacalco. The attackers emerged from two SUVs and also injured two others. The attack on a senior capital officer follows a similar 2020 ambush on then-police chief Omar García Harfuch. The assassination of such a prominent official will almost certainly lead to major police operations with the arrest or killing of cartel members likely to inspire reprisal attacks.
Migrant boat capsizes killing 40 Haitian migrants
On 19 July, a boat fire was reported to have killed at least 40 Haitian migrants. The fire began as the group were attempting to reach the Turks and Caicos Islands. Haitian citizens are reportedly increasingly taking desperate and dangerous measures to escape the island, which continues to have high levels of gang-led violence despite the arrival of Kenyan police. Northbound sea routes are likely appealing to Haitians due to the closure of the Dominican Republic border to the east.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Wildfires spread across the US and Canada.
Wildfires have spread across parts of Canada and the US, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes. In Alberta, Canada, the major tourist town of Jasper faced flames reaching 100 meters high, spreading five kilometres in less than 30 minutes, resulting in up to 50 per cent structural damage and the evacuation of 25,000 people.
In the state of Oregon, the Durkee Fire has burned almost 270,000 hectares, is threatening multiple small towns and killed hundreds of cattle. In California, a man was arrested for allegedly starting the Park Fire, which rapidly grew from 567 to 50,585 hectares, prompting the evacuation of over 4,000 people in Butte County and Chico.
Both regions are battling severe wildfire conditions, with international firefighting support being deployed to Canada.
Bolivian authorities declare state of emergency due to extreme weather
The department of Santa Cruz has declared a state of emergency, scheduled to persist until the end of the year. Authorities cite extreme weather that has led to a combination of torrential rainfall leading to flooding and landslides, droughts, and wildfires.
The response to wildfires in eastern Bolivia has been hampered by fuel shortages. It is likely that large-scale deforestation has contributed to the spread of wildfires in the region, and local authorities are likely to struggle to contain their spread due to the logistical challenges involved, exacerbated by fuel shortages.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
France: Sabotage leads to large transport disruptions on Olympics opening day
In the early hours of 26 July, large-scale disruptions were recorded in much of the French high-speed rail network. During the night between the 25 and 26 July, unknown perpetrators allegedly set fire to rail infrastructure in different parts of the country, near the towns of Arras, Courtalain, Pagny-sur-Moselle, leading to widespread delays. The sabotage action coincided with the opening of the Olympic Games in France.
Solace Global Assessment:
At this stage, it is impossible to attribute responsibility for the sabotage to any single actor. Two scenarios can be considered the most likely based on previous cases and plots to disrupt the Olympics.
First, there is a realistic possibility that the sabotage was carried out by anti-Olympic Games activists associated with the French far-left. These groups have repeatedly warned that they will disrupt the game if President Emmanuel Macron does not acquiesce to their demands to appoint a left-wing government led by the New Popular Front, the coalition that obtained the largest number of representatives at the recent snap National Assembly elections.
Alternatively, the low-sophistication sabotage could be an example of a hybrid operation sponsored or conducted by a foreign state actor, most likely Russia. Russian or pro-Russian actors have recently been linked to multiple fires or cases of sabotage against infrastructure and in other European countries. France has recently allowed Ukraine to fire French-derived weapons into mainland Russia and has even suggest that French troops could be deployed in some capacity to Ukraine. Moreover, a foreign intelligence service likely has the logistical and operational capabilities to conduct simultaneous sabotage actions like the ones observed on the night of 25-26 July.
The effectiveness, ease and desirability of low-level sabotage make it likely that more incidents will occur during the Paris Olympics. The recent disruption of a Tesla “gigafactory” near Berlin, caused by environmentalists setting fire to an electricity pylon, demonstrates the effectiveness of targeting exposed infrastructure for causing significant disruption. Targeting exposed infrastructure in rural or isolated areas requires minimal expertise and only basic tools, making such actions particularly attractive to saboteurs. Furthermore, with the current high threat of terrorism, it is likely that the French authorities are currently overstretched and largely incapable of assigning substantial resources to lesser threats.
Germany: Islamic organisations with links to Hezbollah and Iran banned
On 24 July, German authorities banned six Islamic institutions with links to the Islamic Republic, identifying them as “outposts” for the Tehran regime to spread its ideology and influence in Europe, and as vehicles to provide financial support to the Lebanese armed group, Hezbollah. Authorities also ordered raids on 53 properties, including a major Hamburg Mosque.
The German Interior Ministry stated that the organisations espoused a militant form of Shia Islam with the goals of radicalising Persian diasporas and other Shia groups in Germany in support of Iran’s activities in the Middle East and, possibly, to carry out terrorist activity in Europe.
The raids come only a week after German and Spanish police detained four individuals accused of trafficking drone parts to Hezbollah via civilian-owned companies registered in Europe.
Solace Global Assessment:
One of Iran’s strategic objectives is to spread its revolutionary ideology abroad. Iran has long sought to establish groups and institutions abroad that can further its interests and has used religious freedom laws to operate these with little risk of intervention by host countries’ authorities. Iran’s foreign operations are likely unique as they combine a military and civilian component. Military activities include covert operations and the accumulation of assets, including weapons and improvised explosives, for possible terrorist use. Already in 2020, US State Department figures warned that “Hezbollah [was] gradually building up stockpiles of weapons on European soil”.
Civilian activities have two fundamental goals: spreading Tehran’s brand of Shiism to local Shia communities and pooling local communities’ funds to be remitted to its proxy groups in the Middle East, thus indirectly funding terrorism. The drone-parts case falls into this category. In the United Kingdom, a similar scheme was discovered in April 2024, with prosecutors reporting that the London-based Islamic Centre of England redirected around GBP 240,000 of Covid-19 pandemic-period furlough scheme funds to militant groups in the Middle East.
It is highly likely that Iranian operations in Europe have intensified in the aftermath of 7 October, and that Tehran has sought to capitalise on the wave of support for the Palestinian cause to advance its geopolitical interests in target European countries, especially Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The recent setbacks in Germany and the United Kingdom are likely to have a short-term effect on Iranian operations. However, Tehran-linked organisations are likely to be able to effectively reorganise, also using less traceable payment methods (including cryptocurrencies and Hawalas) to maintain remittance flows towards Iran itself and Iranian proxies.
Yemen: Israel responds to lethal Houthi drone attack with first direct strike on Yemen
On 19 July, the Houthi Movement in Yemen achieved their first successful fatal drone attack on Israel after a one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV) managed to penetrate Israeli air defence and strike Tel Aviv. The UAV hit an apartment building around 100 metres from the US Consulate, killing at least one individual and injuring at least 10 others. Rather than taking a direct course, the drone reportedly followed GPS waypoints, transiting over the Mediterranean Sea before heading east to strike Tel Aviv.
The Houthis have claimed that the attack involved their new “Yafa” drone which purportedly is a modified Iranian-made Samad-3 UAV with an improved 2,600-kilometre range and decreased radar signature. On 20 July, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted a retaliation strike on Yemen, marking the first time Israel has struck back at the Houthis despite hundreds of attacks.
IAF strikes targeted several military and dual-purpose sites in al-Hudaydah (al-Hodeidah), a major port city under Houthi control. Targets included the port’s energy infrastructure and loading facilities, including 20 fuel depots and multiple container cranes, leading to a huge fire at the port, three deaths and around 80 people injured. A spokesperson for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) commented that the strikes were conducted to disrupt Iran’s facilitation of lethal aid to the Houthis and that the port had effectively been shut down.
Solace Global Assessment:
The success of the Houthi drone attack was likely determined by multiple factors. The Houthis have been conducting reconnaissance in force against the IDF’s air defence network, probing for gaps and attempting to identify any vulnerabilities. With Israel faced with Hezbollah to the north, Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq and Syria primarily on its eastern flank and Hamas and the Houthis to the south, it is likely that IDF air defence coverage in the west of Israel was limited.
The Houthis exploited this by approaching Tel Aviv from the Mediterranean Sea which likely caught the IDF off guard. The Houthi’s Yafa drone likely followed a series of GPS waypoints, obfuscated its route by using established civilian flight corridors and exploited the terrain to avoid detection by coalition military assets deployed to the area.
The small and slow-flying projectile, which would ordinarily have a small radar cross-section, was likely improved further by developments in Houthi drone technology- invariably with Iranian assistance. Early indications suggest that the Yafa is made from composite materials like plastic or carbon rather than metal. Such a development would make it lighter and provide it with greater range but would also make it harder to detect on legacy radar systems calibrated to identify metallic objects.
Israel’s advanced air defence network, comprised of the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow System amongst others, has capable radar systems that can detect a wide range of aerial threats including those made from composite materials. However, these systems are harder to detect and provide air defence operators less reaction time, especially if early warning isn’t provided by allied forces- a factor that was pivotal in April 2024, when Iran and Iranian-backed proxies launched over 350 drones, missiles and rockets towards Israel.
Other Iranian proxies will almost certainly emulate the successful tactics of the Houthis. This could undermine Israel’s venerated air defence and force the IDF into reevaluating its tactics and technology. One immediate response might be to re-position air defence to improve coverage on the western flank. However, such a move could lead to other areas being less protected, a major vulnerability considering the degree of omnidirectional threats.
In the long term, the IDF will likely need to enhance its detection capabilities. Ukraine has successfully incorporated an array of acoustic sensors to provide early warning from Russian aerial threats, a capability that is lacking in Israel’s air defence network. However, these improvements are not immediately achievable and if Israel’s air defence is jeopardised, the IDF may be forced into actively degrading the Houthi’s capabilities with further strikes. It is too early to assess to what degree the IAF strikes have degraded or deterred the Houthis.
The strikes have likely benefitted Houthi propaganda with recent statements indicating that their immediate action will be a comprehensive response as part of their fifth phase of operations. This will almost certainly include an increase of attacks against Israel itself but also an escalation of Houthi attacks against merchant shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, with recent indications suggesting the Houthis have improved the lethality and accuracy of their maritime operations through the increased use of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs).
Niger: Series of attacks by jihadist groups mark potentially bloodiest week in Niger since coup
During the reporting period, up to four or more significant battles have reportedly taken place between Nigerien junta forces and jihadist groups in Niger, resulting in potentially hundreds of casualties.
The first battle allegedly occurred on 20 July in Ikarfane, near the Mali border, where Islamic State–Sahel Province (IS-Sahel, formerly known as Islamic State in the Greater Sahara or ISGS) reportedly assaulted a Niger Armed Forces column consisting of 200 soldiers, potentially killing at least 30.
The second occurred on 21 July in the village of Tassia in the Tillaberi region, northwest of Niamey near the Burkina Faso border. The defence ministry announced that 21 were killed in the attack, with three days of national mourning to be observed.
The third battle is speculated to have taken place in Tankademi in the Tahoua region on 21 July, near the Mali border. While unconfirmed, potentially 237 Nigerien soldiers were killed in this single large-scale ambush by hundreds of IS-Sahel fighters who were speculated to be heavily armed and equipped with armoured vehicles.
The fourth battle is claimed to have taken place on 22 July, near the village of Foneko in the Tillaberi region. An official statement on state television announced a preliminary death toll of 15.
Solace Global Assessment:
The past week is likely to have been the most violent in Niger since the military seized power in the July 2023 coup. The information space in Niger is complex and it can often take weeks for incidents to be confirmed. It is, therefore, a realistic possibility that the details regarding specific battles are inaccurate.
The main jihadist groups active in Niger are the Islamic State-affiliated IS-Sahel and al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusr al-Islam Wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Jihadist groups have been engaged in an insurgency for almost a decade in Niger. Since the coup, however, their activity has risen dramatically. This is highly likely due to a combination of declining state capacity and reduced international support. On 11 July, IS-Sahel conducted a raid at the high-security Koutokale prison near Niamey, claiming to have freed over 200 militants. Since then, further attacks reportedly occurred on 12 July, 17 July, and 18 July, the latter allegedly being conducted by JNIM against a Chinese convoy.
It is highly likely that the intensity, extent and geographic spread of attacks by jihadist groups in July indicate that the control exerted by Niger’s security forces is rapidly deteriorating. The junta has adopted a distinctly anti-Western posture, requesting France and the US withdraw all their troops. Prior to the coup, Niger was a crucial partner for the West in the fight against jihadist groups in the Sahel. Up to 40 per cent of Niger’s budget was funded by international partners, and both France and the US contributed considerably to anti-jihadist military operations.
Post-coup, Western withdrawal is highly likely to have diminished Niger’s security profile. While a contingent of US forces are still deployed in Niger, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) announced on 24 July that their withdrawal will be completed in early August, as per the demands of the junta. The junta has sought closer ties with Russia, who sent 100 Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) personnel in April, and Turkey has reportedly deployed over 1,000 Syrian mercenaries to aid in counterinsurgency. However, it is unlikely that the resources provided by Russia and Turkey will be sufficient to make up for those lost by Western withdrawal.
Niger’s counterinsurgency capacity has likely been severely degraded, which has been exploited by insurgents and attacks will likely continue over the coming weeks. There is a realistic possibility that declining security in Niger will lead to significant ungoverned space, areas that can be used as a base of operations by jihadist groups to conduct attacks in the wider region.
Togo: Al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamist group conduct mass casualty attack on army outpost in northern Togo
The Kpékankandi outpost in northern Togo’s unsettled Savanes region was attacked on 20 July leading to the deaths of 12 Togolese soldiers and at least 40 militants. The attack has been claimed by the al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) Islamist group. The outpost is located close to the border with Burkina Faso where JNIM have a long-established presence. The Togolese army has deployed reinforcements to the area in order to enhance its defence posture.
Solace Global Assessment:
The Savanes region remains in a state of emergency which was first introduced in June 2022 after a series of attacks on Togolese security services and civilians. It is almost certain that JNIM are exploiting an incredibly destabilised Burkina Faso as a safe haven to conduct cross-border attacks into neighbouring Togo. Militants across the region have been afforded a wide area of ungoverned space and increased freedom of movement following multiple military coups, including in Burkina Faso, that have replaced Western-leaning civilian governments with military juntas.
This shift has resulted in the expulsion of Western military forces from Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, leading to an overstretching of domestic forces that have lost access to the advanced military capabilities of nations like the US and France. Furthermore, deterring cross-border attacks into Togo is likely a low priority for the Burkinabe government as they deal with a host of insurgent forces on multiple axes. Togo has increasingly been seen as a stable environment and has attracted heavy foreign investment, particularly from Western countries.
JNIM’s strategy is likely to undermine this notion by destabilising its northern region, a region which is primarily Muslim where JNIM is likely seeking to expand its recruitment of potentially disenfranchised locals. Local recruits could then be exploited to expand JNIM’s operations within northern Togo, with similar trends being observed in nearby Benin and the Ivory Coast. Moreover, Togo, Benin, the Ivory Coast and other West African countries have contributed to initiatives such as the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and the Accra Initiative, both aimed at containing terrorism within the Sahel. Previous involvement in these initiatives invariably makes these countries legitimate targets for violent extremist organisations (VEOs) like JNIM.
Most importantly, creating emerging threats within these countries will force governments to allocate resources to internal issues, thus degrading their ability to contribute to regional counter-terrorism initiatives under organisations like the UN or the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Long-term, VEOs like JNIM, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the Islamic State’s West African Province (ISWAP) likely harbour the intent of expanding their operations further south towards the coastal regions of these countries. These are areas where Western interests are disproportionately located, including tourist resorts which would offer VEOs a coveted high-profile target, as demonstrated by AQIM’s 2016 attack on the Grand-Bassam resort in the Ivory Coast.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Large environmental protests in La Rochelle, France
Large-scale protests took place in the French region of La Rochelle. The protests were organised by environmentalist groups that are opposed to the construction of artificial water collection basins for irrigation. While La Rochelle is a primarily rural and sparsely populated area, there is a high likelihood that the protesters will seek to extend disorders to Paris and other Olympic host cities in order to obtain higher exposure.
Two killed in housing development collapse in Naples, Italy
On 23 July, two people were killed and over a dozen injured in Naples when the walkway of a public housing development – in the Scampia suburb, known for severe levels of poverty and organised crime presence – collapsed. The incident will likely spark civil unrest in Italy, especially in the south and targeted at national government institutions.
Blackouts lead to civil unrest in the Krasnodar region of Russia
Civil unrest occurred in the Krasnodar region on 20 July due to ongoing blackouts. The loss of power has likely been caused by abnormally high heat currently affecting the region. Authorities responded relatively mildly to the rare protest, with the local governor acknowledging the protesters’ grievances. However, multiple arrests were reported. Russian authorities appear to be aiming to suppress potential civil unrest while avoiding broader demonstrations by not resorting to excessively harsh repression in these localised protest incidents.
European Union announced talks with Armenia to relax visa rules
European Union officials announced they will begin talks with Armenia to relax visa rules. The development likely represents a further signal of Armenia’s movement towards the West and away from Russia’s sphere of influence. While Yerevan has long been one of Moscow’s key Caucasus allies, relations between the two countries soured following the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Opposition leader sentenced in Tunisia for vote buying
A Tunisian court sentenced Lofti Mraihi, the main opposition leader, to eight months in prison for “vote buying”. Tunisian President Kais Saied has implemented increasingly authoritarian measures and is seeking re-election at the next elections in October. The announcement is likely to drive civil unrest, which authorities will highly likely meet with further draconian measures, including arbitrary arrests and violent intervention.
Bangladeshis sentenced for protesting own government in UAE
The UAE has sentenced 57 Bangladeshi migrant workers for holding protests within the Gulf State. The protests were aimed at the Bangladeshi government over the recent student protests, not at the Emirati government. However, protests not authorised by the UAE’s Ministry of Interior are highly illegal with the government likely attempting to deter other forms of unrest or future activity that challenges or undermines its rule.
Anti-corruption protestors warned by Uganda’s hardline president
Uganda’s hardline President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled the country for almost four decades, has warned protesters that they are playing with fire and anti-corruption demonstrations were organised across the country. The Ugandan authorities have already arrested several protestors and have recently cracked down on the opposition. The country’s main opposition leader, Boni Wine, commands a lot of influence among the country’s youth and the government likely fears that Uganda could face protests of a similar scale and nature as the ones that are ongoing in Kenya.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
UK radical Islamist preacher convicted
Radical Islamist preacher Anjem Choudary was found guilty of directing a terrorist organisation by a British court. Choudary, despite serving a prior conviction for supporting the Islamic State (IS) and contributing to radicalising individuals in the UK, continued to head a renamed iteration of the banned organisation al-Muhajiroun, which also established a chapter in the US. The arrest and later conviction were the product of a joint investigation involving UK, US, and Canadian counterterrorism units.
US bombers conduct patrol over Finland near Russia’s strategic assets
US Air Force B-52 strategic bombers conducted their first-ever flight over Finland on 21 July whilst being escorted by Finnish fighter jets. The nuclear-capable were intercepted by Russian fighter jets after flying close to Russia’s strategic Kola Peninsula, home to multiple NATO-facing military bases, Russia’s Northern Fleet and much of the Kremlin’s submarine-based nuclear deterrent. The event is almost certainly reflective of the geo-political shift that has occurred after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, causing Finland to renege decades of neutrality and join NATO.
German national sentenced to death in Belarus
A German national has been sentenced to death in Belarus, the only country within Europe that still applies the death penalty, according to Germany’s Foreign Ministry. The Belarussian authorities have not stated on what grounds he has been charged, however, rights groups suggest that it is related to the Kalinouski Regiment, a group of anti-government Belarusian exiles fighting for Ukraine.
Rare mass shooting in Croatia
A man allegedly killed five at a retirement home in Daruvar, killing at least six on 22 July. It is possible that the case will result in similar anti-gun protests as those seen in Serbia following another recent attack.
US reporter guilty of espionage in Russia.
A Russian court found US reporter Evan Gershkovich guilty of “espionage” and sentenced him to 16 years in a penal colony. Gershkovich is the first US journalist sentenced for espionage since the Cold War. It is almost certain that, as with other recent examples, the case results were doctored and skewed by Russian officials in order to put further pressure on US diplomacy. It is highly likely that Moscow will now seek to exchange Gershkovich for useful nationals currently held in US detention.
No progress made concerning north Cyprus
The 50th anniversary of the Turkish invasion of north Cyprus did not result in the hoped renewal of dialogue between the Cypriot and Turkish sides. Turkish President Erdogan reiterated Ankara’s long-standing stance of the rejection of a federal unitary state in favour of a two-state solution for the island.
Canadian citizen flies to Israel to attack IDF
A Canadian citizen was shot and killed by Israeli soldiers after allegedly trying to attack them with a knife near the Gaza border. The incident is likely to strain diplomatic relations between the two countries and will likely drive civil unrest in Canada.
IED at Kenya border town likely detonated by Somalia-based al-Shabaab
At least five people were injured at a restaurant in the Kenyan town of Madera after an IED was initiated. The attack was likely conducted by al-Shabaab militants operating in the area which is near to the Somali border near al-Shabaab strongholds. Local police have suggested that the restaurant is often frequented by non-locals who were likely the target of the attack.
Al-Shabaab attempt to seize three army bases in southern Somalia
On 22 July, al-Shabaab militants attempted to take over three Somalian army bases in the south of the country in a region only recently captured by government forces. Government forces claim to have repelled the attack and killed over 80 militants after receiving intelligence of the attack, leading them to abandon the army bases and then encircle al-Shabaab’s fighters. Al-Shabaab is likely attempting to reassert its influence in the Jubaland region after ceding territory to the government which has developed alliances with local clans.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Landslides kills over 200 in southern Ethiopia
On 21-22 July, two landslides in southern Ethiopia’s Gofa Zone have killed at least 257 people. The death count is likely to increase as rescue operations continue with some assessments suggesting as many as 500 dead. The first landslide is thought to have killed as many as 50 people, with the remaining deaths largely caused by the second landslide which engulfed many attempting to assist with rescue efforts. While landslides are common during Ethiopia’s July to September rainy season, experts have suggested that they will become more common as a result of climate change.
Severe weather forecasted in South Africa’s Western Cape
Severe weather is expected to persist in Western Cape Province through July 27, with Orange Level 5 and Yellow Level 4 rain warnings in effect. Flooding, landslides, and strong winds are likely to cause disruptions, including potential evacuation orders, utility service interruptions, and impacts on transportation and businesses.
Asia–Pacific
Myanmar: Rebel forces seize junta government’s regional military command headquarters
On 25 July, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) released a statement claiming that it had seized the Tatmadaw junta’s Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in Lashio, the largest city in Myanmar’s northern Shan State home to around 150,000. The ethnic Kokang rebel group claims that the headquarters was seized after intense fighting with junta forces which surrendered en masse and claimed that “the liberation of Lashio will mark a historic victory in our revolution.”
The commander of Burmese People’s Liberation Army, another group fighting alongside the MNDAA, confirmed the capture of the regional military command headquarters. MNDAA forces are now conducting clearance operations throughout the city.
Solace Global Assessment:
The capture of the junta’s headquarters Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in Lashio was the MNDAA’s primary objective in its war with the junta and if confirmed marks the first military command to fall since the 2021 coup. The loss is also the first major defeat for the junta since the collapse of a Chinese-brokered ceasefire in May. Such a defeat will almost certainly embolden Myanmar’s other rebel groups which are conducting a multi-axis offensive across the country.
The MNDAA’s control of Lashio will enable it to secure a strategic foothold in Shan State that will help facilitate future operations. Despite much damage to roads and reports of landmines, the MNDAA could leverage the city’s infrastructure to establish or improve supply lines and strengthen its command and control. Holding the city will also likely help drive both propaganda and recruitment efforts.
Lashio also sits along a major trade route between Myanmar and China. China maintains good relations with the junta but reports also suggest that it benefits greatly from informal trade and cross-border smuggling associated with rebel forces. If the MNDAA’s capture of Lashio leads to a more stabilised Shan State, Beijing may be deterred from intervening in any capacity. The state’s stabilisation may additionally result in improved access for humanitarian organisations.
However, after such an embarrassing defeat, it is likely that junta forces, which are afforded complete air superiority, will respond with increased air strikes on rebel forces in Lashio resulting in high levels of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure.
Taiwan and Philippines: Typhoon Gaemi causes significant flooding in the Philippines, before making landfall in Taiwan
On 24 July, Typhoon Gaemi made landfall in Taiwan. The typhoon reached maximum wind speeds of 231 kilometres per hour. Forming in the Philippine Sea, Typhoon Gaemi initially tracked past the Philippines between 20-23 July. The tropical cyclone worsened seasonal monsoon rains in the most populous island in the Philippines, Luzon. Torrential rainfall caused flooding and landslides, with at least 20 fatalities. Manila experienced significant flooding which caused widespread disruptions. Approximately 600,000 people in the Philippines have been displaced by the torrential rains.
In Taiwan, at least three deaths have been reported, with hundreds of injuries. The typhoon caused mass power outages, flooding, school and office closures, flight disruptions and the closing of financial markets. Additionally, a tanker and cargo ship were sunk due to the strong winds, with three other vessels running aground. The most serious of these is the sinking of the Philippines-flagged MT TERRA NOVA, which was carrying approximately 1.4 million litres of industrial fuel oil. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is currently attempting to contain the oil spill.
Solace Global Assessment:
Typhoon Gaemi is the most powerful tropical cyclone to impact Taiwan in eight years, reaching a maximum classification of Category 4 before making landfall. In addition to the high wind speeds, the impact was exacerbated by an unusual looping path that meant the typhoon’s inner core hit Taiwan’s east coast twice. Taiwan is highly typhoon-resistant, due to considerable investment into typhoon-resistant infrastructure and comprehensive disaster preparedness and response plans. While disruptions were widespread, it is almost certain that Taiwan’s typhoon resiliency measures spared the island from a far greater impact.
While the typhoon did not make landfall in the Philippines, the considerable flooding caused a far greater impact than in Taiwan, illustrating the Philippines’ vulnerability to severe weather. In the days preceding the typhoon, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr highlighted flood prevention in his State of the Nation address. While he has since ordered authorities to expedite disaster response efforts, it is likely that the typhoon’s impact will raise further questions about the Philippines’ weak disaster preparedness.
Furthermore, the oil spill resulting from the sinking of MT TERRA NOVA stretches several kilometres, and a spokesman of the Philippine Coast Guard warned that the spill could be the largest in the country’s history if not contained. Gaemi made landfall in Fujian province in mainland China on 25 July, prompting authorities to suspend transport services and close schools. While Gaemi has weakened to a Tropical Storm, heavy rainfall will likely continue to cause disruptions in China over the coming days.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Relative calm in Bangladesh following Supreme Court decision
Following large-scale violent unrest in Bangladesh sparked by a high court decision to reimpose controversial public sector job quotas, there has been relative calm since the Supreme Court overturned the decision on 21 July. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has attributed the recent deadly unrest in the country to political opposition, asserting that the imposition of a curfew was a necessary measure for public safety.
The violence resulted in over 150 fatalities and the arrest of more than 1,000 individuals, including several senior opposition leaders. The government has stated that the curfew will be lifted and internet services reinstated when the situation improves. However, protestors have demanded the resignation of Hasina and government accountability for the violence, indicating that future demonstrations are likely.
Cambodia opposition leader convicted of defamation
A Cambodian court has convicted opposition leader Teav Vannol of defamation and imposed a USD 1.5 million fine for comments he made about the country’s democracy. In an interview with Nikkei this February, Vannol, president of the Candlelight Party, criticised the administration of Hun Manet, the son of long-time leader Hun Sen.
The Candlelight Party was excluded from last year’s general election, which saw Hun Sen’s party win a landslide. The court’s decision, which Vannol intends to appeal, reflects ongoing concerns about political freedom in Cambodia. The move indicates the severe consequences for dissent and follows similarly harsh verdicts against environmental activists deemed critical of the government.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Vietnamese frigate docks in Russia in sign of growing military cooperation
The Vietnamese missile frigate, the HUNG DAO, conducted a port call in Russia’s Vladivostok on 24 July. The Russian-made vessel’s port call is likely reflective of growing military cooperation between the two countries and follows the recent trip of President Putin to Vietnam. Russia is likely trying to entice Vietnam into its sphere of influence and covets long-term access to Vietnam’s deep-water port at Cam Ranh Bay, a facility used extensively during the Cold War which enabled Russia’s Pacific Fleet to conduct bluewater operations.
Taiwan begins annual war games
Taiwan began its annual Han Kuang war games on 22 July, aimed at stimulating the repelling of a Chinese invasion. This year’s iteration is designed to be as realistic as possible, dialling down on military pageantry and focusing on crucial elements like nighttime operations and operating with severed lines of communication.
The drills also include live fire exercises on Taiwan’s outlying islands near the Chinese coast, as well as a civil defence drill in major cities. This comprehensive approach likely aims to demonstrate Taiwan’s capability to leverage all its resources and strategies in a unified effort to deter a Chinese invasion at a time when tensions are increasingly strained.
The Philippines and China reach an agreement in the South China Sea
On 22 July, the Philippines and China reached an agreement to de-escalate tensions at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. The deal aims to manage the dispute through dialogue without either party compromising on their territorial claims and follows a series of aggressive actions from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Chinese Coast Guard toward the Philippines Navy.
The deal will allow the Philippines to resupply its forces at the shoal but denies Manila the right to bring in construction materials used to fortify the area. The deal may set a precedent for other Southeast Asian nations that have territorial disputes in the South China Sea, including Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Islamist militants attack government forces in the south of the Philippines
On 20 July, Dawlah Islamiya militants attacked Filipino forces with small arms fire in Shariff Saydona Mustapha, Mindanao. One soldier reportedly died in the attack. Dawlah Islamiya (DI), formerly known as the Maute Group, is affiliated with Islamic State (IS) and regularly launches attacks against security forces on the southern island of Mindanao.
In March, DI militants ambushed army personnel in the same region, Maguindanao del Sur, killing four. It is highly likely that the group will continue to launch attacks in Mindanao over the coming months.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Several dead in Pakistan during Hyderabad heatwave
According to local sources, at least eleven people have died due to a heatwave in Hyderabad, Pakistan. The death toll is likely to further increase in the coming days, as the region continues to record temperatures of around 40 degrees Celsius, likely worsened by high humidity levels. If the casualties increase considerably, there is a realistic possibility of localised civil unrest breaking out.
Major bridge collapses in Shaanxi province, China
A bridge in the Shaanxi province collapsed on 19 July, killing 11 people. The collapse was caused by floods, which are affecting much of north and central China, as well as by poor infrastructure standards. It is highly likely that, as China continues to be unable to resolve long-standing issues of poor construction quality and materials, further episodes will occur.
18 dead in plane crash in Kathmandu, Nepal
A Saurya Airlines plane crashed shortly after take-off from Kathmandu on 24 July, killing 18 people and injuring the pilot who was the sole survivor. The plane was heading for maintenance in Pokhara and crashed in challenging conditions with low visibility, factors that will likely raise questions concerning the safety record of Nepal, an impoverished country that has to rely heavily on air travel due to its mountainous terrain.
Severe weather forecasted in eastern and northern regions of Japan
Severe weather is forecast to impact most of Japan through 26 July, with warnings for landslides and flooding in eastern and northern regions, and potential lightning, tornadoes, strong winds, and hail in western and northern areas. Evacuation orders are in effect for tens of thousands in affected areas, with significant flooding and landslides reported. Disruptions to transport, utilities, and businesses are expected, and flight delays and port closures may occur due to adverse weather conditions.
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Executive Summary
- The attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania is almost certainly reflective of political division in the US and will likely lead to increased political violence.
- An Islamic State-claimed attack in Oman against Shia worshippers marks the group’s first attack in the country and is likely indicative of the growing importance of Islamic State-Yemen Province.
- The increased use of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) by the Houthis is highly likely to increase the threat to merchant shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- Mass student protests are highly likely to continue in Bangladesh during the coming weeks, following violent clashes which killed at least 39 people.
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AMER
USA: Trump survives assassination attempt
Argentina: President Milei condemns Iran and seeks justice for 1994 bombing
EMEA
Israel & Palestine: Mohammed Deif possibly killed in Israeli air strike
Oman: Islamic State carries out first attack in the country
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden: Houthis launch further attacks with USVs
APAC
Pakistan: CTD detain al-Qaeda leader and associate of Bin Laden
Bangladesh: Mass student protests lead to harsh government crackdown
Taiwan: Trump states Taiwan should pay US for protection
Global Dates and Events
Asalha Puja: Increased Threat of Violence Against Buddhist Temples During Dharma Day Celebrations
The Buddhist festival of Asalha Puja, or Dharma Day, takes place on 20 July. The celebration is one of the major ones for Buddhists and it commemorates the Buddha’s first sermon. As with other religious holidays, there is an increased threat of targeted violence against Buddhist temples, especially in countries with large Buddhist minorities.
Shravana Month Begins on 22 July
The Shravana month of the Hindu calendar begins on 22 July. The month is important due to its symbolic connection with the monsoon season in the Indian subcontinent. For Hindus, the month is connected to the deity Shiva, and devotees carry out a series of religious practices, including fasting and pilgrimages. Whilst the festival is typically peaceful, there have been many instances of sectarian violence and heightened tensions in the past.
Olympic Games Set to Begin in France on 26 July Amidst High Terrorism and Unrest Risks
The Olympic Games are scheduled to begin in France on 26 July and continue until 11 August. More than 15 million visitors are expected to arrive in Paris alone during the Games, which have one of the largest audiences of any sporting event. More than three billion people reportedly watched the last Olympics in Japan. Due to their profile and media attention, there are important terrorism and civil unrest risks associated with the Games.
North, Central and South America
United States: Former President Donald Trump survives assassination attempt during rally
On 13 July, former President Trump was shot and wounded by a lone gunman while speaking at a rally in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. The would-be assassin managed to wound Trump’s ear, as well as kill one attendee and injure a further two before being killed by law enforcement agents. It is unclear what the shooter’s motive was, and US security and intelligence services initiated multiple inquiries to understand how the shooter managed to reach a vantage point from where he could take aim at Trump.
Only two days later, Trump, who also selected Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate for 2024, was endorsed at the Republican Party’s Annual National Convention (RNC) as the party’s official candidate.
Solace Global Assessment:
Very little information exists about the attacker, who had a negligible online footprint and unremarkable background, and it is difficult to say whether he was inspired by a particular ideology, or simply by a desire to obtain notoriety. As of the time of writing, no “manifestos”, statements, or other perpetrator-generated material often associated with lone actor terrorists has been found, suggesting that the shooter did not fit within that profile, but may have been motivated by non-ideological factors.
The large volume of conspiracy theories publicised on social media in the assassination attempt’s aftermath suggests that foreign powers are likely seeking to conduct information operations to increase political instability in the US. The episode likely represents a possible driving factor of increased risks of domestic terrorism in the US, especially retaliatory action by self-proclaimed vigilantes. Any updates regarding the shooter’s motive and background will almost certainly cause further division in the United States.
Trump’s announcement of JD Vance as his running mate ends speculation concerning the direction of his campaign. Vance represents the Republican right, particularly the rural, white working class that forms a core demographic base for Trump. Vance is a self-described nationalist and is expected to remain loyal to Trump’s “MAGA” platform, and his nomination likely represents a key indicator of the tilt of the Republican party towards Trump’s populist camp, matching a decrease of the influence of the centrist, neoliberal wing of the GOP.
Moreover, Vance is a young candidate (only 39 years of age) and may represent an important asset in shaping a post-Trump GOP, as the former president cannot run again if he is re-elected. Finally, picking Vance as a running mate over other possibilities may foreshadow some of the foreign policy lines of a possible second Trump administration. Vance has repeatedly stated that he is uninterested in Ukraine and has questioned the American consensus for supporting Kyiv’s war efforts. Trump, has announced that he would immediately end the war if back in the White House, possibly hinting at forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table by threatening the withdrawal of aid. Such a scenario would almost certainly create significant difficulties for the US’ European allies, who are still struggling with procurement and support for Ukraine, and would likely be ineffective without American contributions.
Argentina: Milei condemns Iran and seeks justice for Hezbollah-linked 1994 AMIA bombing
On 18 July, Argentina’s Jewish community marked the 30th anniversary of the 1994 Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires which killed 85 people. President Milei pledged to rectify decades of inaction and inconsistencies in the investigation into the attack which was the deadliest terrorist attack in Argentina’s history.
Argentina’s top criminal court has attributed blame to Iran for the attack and has suggested that the attack was conducted by Hezbollah militants under the operational command of Tehran. Milei has instigated plans to try suspects in absentia and has committed to improving Argentina’s national intelligence to prevent future attacks. Iran continues to refuse to extradite the suspects and has repeatedly ignored international arrest warrants.
Solace Global Assessment:
Argentine prosecutors have also charged Iranian officials alongside members of Hezbollah for the 1994 AMIA attack as well as a separate attack in 1992 on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires that killed 22 people. In addition, in January 2024 Argentine police apprehended three men from Lebanon and Syria suspected of planning a terrorist attack in Argentina when it was hosting the Pan-American Maccabiah Games, which brings together thousands of Jewish athletes.
Argentina is home to the largest Jewish community in South America at an estimated 200,000-300,000 and there are an estimated 50,000-70,000 Argentine Jews residing in Israel. Furthermore, President Milei is a staunch supporter of both the Jewish community and Israel and has publicly toyed with the idea of converting to Judaism. He has also taken a divergent path from most South American leaders concerning the Israel-Hamas conflict. In January he visited Israel, declared unwavering support for Tel Aviv and recently designated the Iranian-backed Hamas militant group as a terrorist organisation.
These developments have likely made Argentina a target for Iranian-sponsored terrorism, particularly against its large Jewish community. Argentina has heightened surveillance and border controls to prevent the infiltration of Iranian agents from Venezuela and Bolivia where they are suspected of having a considerable footprint. Iran’s most capable proxy force, Hezbollah is also known to have a strong presence within South America, especially in the lawless tri-border area between Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina- all countries that also have a large Lebanese diaspora where Hezbollah has likely been able to establish ties and exploit for cover.
Hezbollah’s main operations here entail the financing of operations in the Middle East through their connections to South American organised crime where Hezbollah are suspected of being involved in money laundering, drug trafficking and other illicit activity. The group likely sees Argentina’s Jewish community as a legitimate target within the context of the current conflict and a deniable attack sponsored by Iran would help demonstrate Tehran’s reach and operational capabilities.
Milei’s decision to strengthen intelligence and anti-terrorism measures will also likely put it on course for future conflict with Hezbollah, which Argentina has already designated a terrorist organisation. If the Milei administration attempts to dismantle Hezbollah’s invaluable criminal operations, the group may be coaxed into reprisal attacks against the Argentine government, a course of action that may also be endorsed by Iran with indications that it too is involved and profits from illicit activity within South America.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
US President Joe Biden Tests Positive for Covid-19
US President Joe Biden tested positive for Covid-19 on 17 July. The development is likely to damage Biden’s re-election bid further and continue to raise worries regarding the president’s health and fitness.
Peru Extends Detention of Ex-President Castillo
Peru’s judiciary has announced that it is extending the pre-trial detention of former President Pedro Castillo by 18 months while an investigation against him on charges of rebellion continues. His apprehension resulted in protests from his base and the judiciary’s plans to sentence him to over 30 years in prison may ignite further unrest in the South American country.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
US Receives Intelligence on Iranian Plot to Assassinate Trump
CNN reported on 16 July that the US received intelligence regarding an Iranian plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. This was almost certainly unrelated to the assassination attempt that took place in Ohio. However, the reports are likely to bring more scrutiny and criticism towards US intelligence and security service, considering the security gaps that allowed the Ohio shooter to get within range of Trump.
Trump Plans to Designate Mexican Cartels as Terrorist Groups, Proposes Military Action if Elected
Former US President Trump has announced plans to designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organisations should he secure victory in November. Under his plans, the Pentagon will be ordered to make proper use of US special forces who will be deployed to attack cartel leadership and infrastructure, as well as deploy the US Navy to enforce a blockade on the cartels. Such plans have almost no chance of being endorsed by the Mexican government; however, his plan to deploy US troops to the Mexican border is likely to rally his base as the election looms.
Venezuelan Opposition Leader’s Security Chief Arrested
Opposition members in Venezuela have reported that the chief security officer for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was arrested. Machado, alongside other opposition candidates, has been barred from competing at the 28 July elections on clearly untenable technicalities. Still, the decimated opposition retains a much higher support than the ruling government, as the few available polls show. It is highly likely that further intimidatory gestures, and possible crackdowns, will continue over the next weeks. The vote is also almost certain to lack transparency, and the result will likewise highly likely be doctored to benefit the Maduro regime.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Midwest Storms Cause Widespread Power Outages and Tornadoes
On 14-16 July, the Midwest of the US experienced extreme weather, with powerful storm systems causing tornadoes and heavy rainfall. Across the region, over 500,000 energy customers were left without power as a result of the storms. Illinois was particularly impacted, and Chicago suffered from major disruptions. The number of tornado warnings issued was abnormally high for the region, with one tornado even being recorded as touching down in Chicago.
New York State Declares State of Emergency After Severe Storms and Tornadoes
The Governor of New York State declared a statewide State of Emergency on July 16, following severe storms and several tornado touchdowns. The storms caused major damage in the City of Rome and significantly impacted areas in Madison County, with one death reported. 110,000 customers lost power across New York State.
7.4 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Northern Chile
On 18 July, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit northern Chile near the Argentina border. The earthquake has not resulted in any immediate casualties but has led to multiple power outages in the wider region.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Israel and Palestine: Mohammed Deif, second in command of Hamas in Gaza, reportedly killed.
On 13 July, Israeli forces carried out an airstrike with multiple 2,000-pound bombs on a housing complex in Khan Yunis. The attack, which reportedly killed more than 20 Palestinians, also resulted in the death of Ali Hassan Salameh, the head of Hamas’ Khan Yunis brigade, and, more crucially, possibly Mohammed Deif, the military leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the second most senior Hamas leader in Gaza after Yahya Sinwar. The killing of Deif, which Israeli officials have not yet confirmed, would make this the most high-profile decapitation strike of the Hamas-Israel conflict so far.
Further south, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) units are continuing operations in Rafah, as well as clearing tunnels near the Philadelphi Corridor. On 18 July, the Israeli Knesset voted to reject a recognition of a Palestinian state, even following a resolution to the current conflict.
Solace Global Assessment:
The recent developments in the Gaza Strip are likely to have concrete impacts on the future of the conflict, although they will likely not translate into a short-term change in the ongoing attrition stage of the war, where half-depleted Hamas cells continue to carry hit-and-run attacks on IDF forces that are operating in previously cleared areas. The killing of Deif is likely to impact the senior Hamas leadership in Gaza in terms of its effectiveness and organisational capability in the short-term. Deif is considered to be the main architect behind the development of the logistical and training system of Hamas over the last decades, and replacing him will not be easy.
At the same time, Hamas has the advantage of having a decentralised structure, as ongoing Israeli operations have favoured the development of separate chains of command, also giving junior officials the chance to become familiar with operating in a warzone, which will make the immediate impact of Deif’s loss more manageable.
Both Hamas and Israel likely still consider their strategic objectives in the war to be attainable. The latter will have been encouraged by the recent decapitation strikes and the Knesset’s refusal to recognise a future Palestinian state is likely sending a strong message to Hamas and its allies, Israel’s international partners and dovish elements within Israeli society.
In the short-to-medium term, IDF forces are likely to continue clearing operations in the Philadelphi corridor, seeking to further destroy the complex network of tunnels that is Hamas’ main supply line into Gaza. Simultaneously, the decapitation strike on Deif highly likely corroborates early reports that the Hamas leadership in Gaza has relocated to Khan Yunis, rather than Rafah, and especially to the area of the city overlapping with the al-Mawasi humanitarian zone where they can hide within the civilian population and coax the IDF into causing high civilian casualties.
Islamic State claims first-ever attack in Oman, in armed raid on Shia Mosque.
Islamic State (IS) operatives carried out an attack at the Muharram congregation in Mutrah, near Muscat, on 15 July. The attack coincided with the Islamic holiday of Ashura, which is particularly sacred to Shias as it commemorates the death of Husayn ibn Ali, the third Shia imam. Six people were killed and 28 injured during the shooting. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the Yemeni province of IS (ISYP).
Solace Global Assessment:
The attack is notable as it was the first-ever IS operation in Oman. However, the country has long been a desirable target for multiple reasons. First, the country has close relations with other regional powers and with Iran, as it plays an important mediation role in the context of the ongoing Yemen and Red Sea crises. Attacking the Omani state and possibly reducing international perceptions of its stability could impact the progress of its mediation, leading to greater and more prolonged instability, one of IS’ fundamental goals.
Oman is also a relatively tolerant state compared to its regional neighbours, and much more multireligious. The majority are Ibadi and there are also significant Sunni and Shia minorities, the latter of which are deemed as heretics or rafidi by IS. It is highly likely that the simple availability of multiple Shia targets, with little security to guard them, was the key driver of the attack.
ISYP, like the other IS branches, has the ultimate strategic goal of toppling local regimes to restore an Islamic Caliphate, starting, in this case, from the south of the Arabian Peninsula. Notably, ISYP has likely increased its activity and gained relevance in recent years due to its closeness to the Somali province branch (ISSP), which, according to recent reports, could be headed by the group’s current “caliph”, who allegedly has personal ties to the Yemeni branch and has spent considerable time in Yemen. ISSP, which benefits from less pressure compared to the IS branches in the Middle East, continues to play a crucial role in channelling funds to the more active IS branches in Afghanistan (the Khorasan province, or ISKP) and the Sahel (the West Africa province, ISWAP).
ISYP almost certainly benefits from a close connection to ISSP, both by guaranteeing the inbound and outbound transit of fighters, and even senior members of IS, between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, and by being the first step in rerouting funds and assets from Africa towards Asia. There is a remote possibility that the Oman attack is linked to a reported spike in IS attacks further north, in Syria and Iraq. A connection between the two theatres could signal a return in IS’ planning and coordination capacity between different provinces, possibly hinting at a growing IS ability to carry out transregional complex attacks.
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: Houthis launch further attacks against merchant shipping with uncrewed surface vessels
On 15 July, two merchant vessels were attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. The MT BENTLEY I, a Panama-flagged, Israel-owned and Monaco-operated tanker vessel transporting oil from Russia to China was initially attacked by one uncrewed surface vessel (USV) and two crewed small boats. The Houthis later launched an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) towards the vessel. These attacks were unsuccessful in disabling the vessel, with no notable damage or any injuries reported.
In a separate incident, the MT CHIOS LION, a Liberian-flagged, Marshall Islands-owned and Greek-operated crude oil tanker was impacted by a USV, causing damage. No injuries were reported.
Additionally, on 19 July, the Singaporean-flagged MV LOBIVIA was reportedly struck by unknown projectiles in the Gulf of Aden. While the vessel suffered damage, no injuries have yet been reported.
Solace Global Assessment:
The increased use of USVs by the Houthis in their ongoing campaign against merchant shipping highly likely indicates an evolution in Houthi tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs). On 12 June, the Houthis struck the bulk carrier MV TUTOR in the Red Sea with a USV, killing one crewmember and disabling the vessel. This marked a significant operational success for the Houthis. Since then, the Houthis successfully used USVs to attack the MV TRANSWORLD NAVIGATOR on 23 June, and the MV SEAJOY on 27 June.
United States Central Command, who are engaged in military operations against the Houthis as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, have additionally reported destroying 27 USVs since 12 June, compared to a prior total of 26 USVs since their first identified use by the Houthis on 4 January. This almost certainly indicates a significant uptick in the use of USVs by the Houthis, emboldened by their successful attack against the MV TUTOR.
The Houthis pioneered the operational use of USVs when they attacked a Saudi frigate with a USV in January 2017, and currently maintain an arsenal of both uncrewed weaponised skiffs as used against the MV TUTOR, as well as purpose-built craft called Tufan or Blowfish that carry far more powerful warheads. The Houthis claimed the attack against MV Transworld Navigator was conducted with the largest of these Tufan USVs, the Tufan-3 which they claim carries a 1000-1500 kilogram warhead.
The weaponised skiff USVs provide effective camouflage against countermeasures, amplified by the Houthi use of dummies as used in the TUTOR attack, ostensibly appearing to be ordinary crewed fishing vessels. The Tufan USVs, however, carry far more powerful warheads and travel at higher speeds. USVs are exceptionally difficult for merchant vessels to counter, and unless intercepted by naval forces, have proven to be more effective than ASBMs, anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) at causing impacts.
The main weakness of Houthi USVs, compared to those used by Ukraine in the Black Sea, is that they are not fully autonomous, relying on a human pilot for the initial line of attack, requiring the use of motherships. Merchant vessels, however, are not equipped to counter USVs and must rely on their hull strength to withstand impacts if naval forces are not successful in intercepting the USVs beforehand. While the sole use of a USV is generally incapable of sinking a merchant vessel (though this is not impossible), a good hit on a weak point, such as the engine compartment, can immobilise a merchant vessel which then makes the vessel far easier to hit with secondary strikes by missiles and drones. This TTP was used effectively against the Tutor.
It is highly likely that the evolution of Houthi TTPs to increasingly use USVs substantially increases the threat to merchant shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
New Far-Right Group Emerges in EU Parliament
After the recent creation of the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group by the far-right parties of countries including Hungary, France, Italy, Czechia and Austria, a further identitarian EU Parliament party, named Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), was officially constituted. The group, which, among others, includes smaller French, Bulgarian and Polish members, is centred on the leadership of the radical right Alternative for Germany (AfD). With 25 members (14 of which are AfD, following the party’s record performance at the European elections), the group is the smallest in the European parliament. Politically, it is virtually indistinguishable from PfE, and its existence is almost certainly only the product of AfD’s “toxicity” for other European identitarians.
The growth of various far-right parties has likely significantly destabilised the centre-right status quo centred on friendly relations between the centrist European People’s Party (EPP) and the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and may therefore further shift the EPP towards working with the left-wing groups in the EU Parliament. The recent re-election of EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola as part of a deal between EPP and the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) likely further signals this trend, as, more importantly, does Ursula von der Leyen’s successful bid for a second term as European Commission President. On 18 July, von der Leyen was re-elected with the support of much of the EPP, S&D and Greens, with ECR showing only limited support.
This is highly likely a serious issue for Giorgia Meloni’s formation, which now finds itself at a real risk of becoming a minoritarian formation, “stuck” between a left-oriented EPP and two “unelectable” far-right groups.
Welsh First Minister Resigns Amid Donation Scandal
The First Minister of Wales, Vaughan Gething, resigned on 17 July following controversies over his acceptance of GBP 200,000 as a campaign donation from a businessman convicted over environmental offences, and for sacking a government minister. The development may develop into an early challenge for the new UK Labour government, whose Welsh chapter will now have to elect a successor.
Poland Passes Law Allowing Live Fire to Stop Migrants at Border
The parliament of Poland approved a law that allows border security and police forces to fire live ammunition to stop attempts by migrants to cross the border. The law specifically restricts the use of weapons to cases in which other deterrents fail. However, the law’s allowance for “pre-emptive” uses of firearms creates a likelihood of abuses of power. Russia and Belarus are currently favouring migrants’ attempts to reach the Polish border as a tool to destabilise Poland and the wider EU.
EU Parliamentarians Call to Suspend Hungary’s Voting Rights
On 16 July, a group of 63 EU parliamentarians called for Hungary to have its voting rights rescinded following Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visits to Moscow and Beijing. Hungary holds the EU presidency for this month, and Orban has used the opportunity to launch an impromptu “peace tour” of Europe’s geopolitical adversaries. The move has no legal basis and will not result in a tangible change. Its proposal is instead almost certainly an attempt to further put pressure on Hungary and continue distancing the bloc from its rogue member.
Russia Restricts WhatsApp and YouTube
The Russian government has increasingly slowed down or restricted applications and websites including WhatsApp and YouTube, under the justification of preventing extremist groups’ activities. UK intelligence sources state that Moscow will likely ban YouTube altogether in September. Compared with China, which has built an alternative online space separate from the World Wide Web, Russia relies on many European- and American-based companies and sites. The bans on mainstream sites like YouTube and WhatsApp will likely prompt Russia to increasingly adopt Chinese alternatives, thus increasing reliance on Beijing, or develop its own platforms, although it is unlikely that Russia has the indigenous assets to do so.
Gambia Upholds Ban on Female Genital Mutilation
Lawmakers in the Gambia narrowly voted to uphold a ban on female genital mutilation (FGM), striking down proposed legislation that would have made the country the first to remove a ban on the practice, which affects an estimated 75 per cent of women between 15 and 50. While FGM is not religiously sanctioned, Islamic groups have pushed to remove the ban, which entails penalties for people carrying out or assisting in the practice. The vote is likely to continue helping civil society, state, and foreign humanitarian actors in the difficult fight against FGM in the Gambia.
Rwandan President Paul Kagame Re-Elected with Over 99% of Vote
As expected, Rwandan President Paul Kagame was re-elected with more than 99 per cent of the vote. Kagame has been Rwanda’s leader for more than two decades, and his victory at this year’s vote was guaranteed after prominent critics were barred from competing. Kagame’s government is almost certain to continue its militaristic foreign policy in Africa, marked by formal troop deployments and support for paramilitary groups like M23, while also reaching out to Western states.
Kenya Faces Unrest After Arrest of Alleged Serial Killer
In Kenya, the arrest of an alleged serial killer, responsible for reportedly more than 40 murders, has driven localised civil unrest and has contributed to re-ignited protests in areas that saw severe anti-government unrest in the past week. Cases of violence targeting police forces have been recorded in Nairobi. It is highly likely that the case will drive further protests and discontent towards authorities in the short term. Kenya’s President Ruto is set to address the nation on 19 July in a bid to curtail the anti-government protests. However, much of the nation is still demanding his resignation and his speech could help increase current tensions and translate to more unrest.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
UK Labour Government Launches Defence Review
The new Labour government of the UK has launched a defence review as promised in its manifesto. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to exceed NATO targets and increase national defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by mid-2025. The review follows recent reports arguing that the British armed forces are currently unable to fight a conflict of any scale. Among various challenges, London’s military is struggling to match its recruitment goals, faces pressures to modernise assets such as its nuclear-armed Vanguard submarine fleet, and ongoing issues with its support for Ukraine in the context of the Russian invasion.
Germany Plans to Halve Military Aid to Ukraine by 2025
Reuters reported that Germany is planning to halve military aid to Ukraine from EUR eight billion to EUR four billion in 2025. The plans underscore Berlin’s expectations that the allocation of interest from frozen Russian funds, as well as other financial tools deployed to help Kyiv, will allow it to recoup the loss of direct military aid. If implemented, the plans are likely to increase uncertainty regarding the future of Ukraine’s defence, as a possible future second Trump presidency may affect other funding pathways and sources.
Spanish and German Police Arrest Four in Drone Parts Trafficking Case Linked to Hezbollah
Spanish and German police detained four individuals on 18 July on charges of trafficking drone parts to Hezbollah. The scheme reportedly involves the use of Lebanese-owned companies registered in Spain, trading large quantities of technology some of which can be repurposed for use by military drones. While details of the trafficking system are yet to emerge, the case likely demonstrates ongoing difficulties in moderating and preventing the proliferation of cheap and easily manufactured electronic goods that can be used for lethal means. As the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Myanmar, Palestine and the Lebanon-Israel border show, cheap commercial drones and their parts can be easily converted into deadly systems.
Houthi Drone Attack on Tel Aviv Raises Concerns Over Israeli Security
An overnight drone attack on Tel Aviv, Israel on 19 July that killed one and injured several has been claimed by the Houthi Movement in Yemen. A drone attack from such a distance that managed to elude air defence radars and bypass the Iron Dome will likely challenge the security of Israel. The Houthis have claimed that the drone was a new Yafa drone which cannot be detected by radar. Whilst this statement is likely indicative of Houthi propaganda, if the militant group has obtained this capability and it is proliferated to other Iranian proxies, it could hugely increase the risk to Israel. There is also a realistic possibility that the Houthi drone diversified its flightpath and flew west over Egypt and across the Mediterranean to evade Israel air defence.
Al-Shabaab Car Bombing in Mogadishu Kills Nine During European Cup Finals
Al-Shabaab operatives carried out a car bombing in Mogadishu, Somalia during the finals of the European Cup, killing nine people. There is a high likelihood that the action was a retaliation for the killing of at least five al-Shabaab detainees during a prison riot in the days prior, which broke out after the members were sentenced to the death penalty.
Militiamen Attack Ethiopian Military Convoy in Somalia
Also in Somalia, unidentified militiamen attacked a military convoy carrying weapons from Ethiopia on 16 July, killing at least five. The convoy, which was attacked near the central Somali town of Abudwaq, was transporting heavy machineguns, anti-air weapons, and rocket-propelled grenades. There is a high likelihood that part of the arsenal will end in the hands of al-Shabaab. In the medium term, there is a realistic possibility that further cases of proliferation will lead to international organisations reconsidering the December 2023 lifting of a three-decade-long ban on weapons sales and transfers to Somalia.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
North Macedonia Declares State of Crisis as Wildfires Force Border Closures
The government of North Macedonia declared a state of crisis on 14 July due to ongoing wildfires that have damaged or destroyed hundreds of hectares of woodland. The threat posed by the fires also forced authorities, on 17 July, to close border crossings to Greece. With temperatures forecasted to remain high, there is a high likelihood that the fires will continue. Outside of increasing their speed and making it difficult to extinguish them, high heat can facilitate the reignition of wildfires, thus posing a protracted danger.
Greece Enacts Partial Ban on Outdoor Work Amid Extreme Heatwave
On 16 July, Greek authorities ratified a partial ban on outdoor work as temperatures in the country continue to exceed 40 degrees Celsius during the hottest areas of the day. Service sector workers, who play a crucial role during the high tourism season in Greece, are especially at risk due to the extreme temperatures, and the ban is especially likely to aim at safeguarding them in particular. The threat posed by increasingly high temperatures is likely to have a long-term impact on the feasibility and risk of tourism to Greece during the hot summer months.
Asia–Pacific
Pakistan: CTD detain al-Qaeda leader and former close associate of Bin Laden
On 19 July, Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) announced the arrest of Amin ul-Haq, a prominent al-Qaeda (AQ) leader listed on a United Nations sanctions list. Ul-Haq, described as a close associate of the late Osama Bin Laden, who orchestrated the 9/11 attacks, was apprehended during a major counter-terrorism operation in the city of Gujrat in the Punjab province. Intelligence indicated that ul-Haq was planning on sabotaging critical national infrastructure (CNI) across the Punjab province.
Solace Global Assessment:
The arrest of ul-Haq marks Pakistan’s first major AQ arrest in several years. Haq, originally from Afghanistan, headed Bin Laden’s Black Guard which provided personal security for the leader of AQ and fled to Pakistan after the 2001 battle of Tora Bora, where he was apprehended in 2008 but released in 2011 due to insufficient evidence. Reporting indicates that he has risen through the ranks of a weakened AQ to command hundreds of fighters. Ul-Huq returned to Afghanistan in 2021 following the Taliban’s recapture of Kabul. His relationship with Bin Laden and his role within AQ likely made him a pillar one target for the US.
There is a realistic possibility that this operation was coordinated by US intelligence who fear a resurgent AQ in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region capable of conducting external operations way beyond their centre of gravity. For Pakistan, the arrest of a major figure within AQ will be sold as a win for its counter-terrorism operations. However, the apprehension of ul-Haq is likely to provoke reprisal attacks from AQ. This is a potential development that Pakistan may struggle to deal with as it is plagued by a host of resurgent militant groups such as the Pakistani Taliban and several Baluch separatist groups.
Moreover, AQ may be attempting to exploit the current overstretching of Pakistani security services to undermine the government, gain publicity and increase recruitment. AQ’s plans to sabotage Pakistan’s CNI would likely help them achieve these goals and the failed operation may be an indicator of a future increase in AQ operations in the country.
Bangladesh: Mass student protests over public sector job quotas result in harsh government crackdown
Large-scale ongoing unrest in Bangladesh this week led to at least 39 deaths and hundreds more injuries. The student-led protests arose following a 5 June High Court decision to reinstate a quota system for public sector jobs. While notable disturbances initially followed, major demonstrations were delayed due to Eid and summer holidays, beginning in earnest from 1 July.
On 10 July, the Supreme Court suspended the High Court order, upholding the prior status quo. However, the student protests, self-styled as the “Bangla Blockade” movement, continued, with protest leaders vowing to continue protests until the quota system is permanently overturned. The most major confrontations took place on 15-16 July, with police forces reportedly using rubber bullets, teargas, baton charges and stun grenades. Several of the deaths were attributed to rubber bullets.
In addition to the severe police response, protestors clashed with pro-government groups who were reportedly armed with machetes, bamboo rods and hockey sticks. The government has closed schools and universities indefinitely, and multiple Bangladeshi internet providers restricted access to social media platforms.
Solace Global Assessment:
In 1972, after the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War when Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan, the founding father of Pakistan, Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, introduced a quota system that reserved 56 per cent of government jobs for specific groups. Most of these reserved jobs were for the offspring of the “freedom fighters” who fought in the 1971 war. In 2018, mass student protests led to significant reform of the quota system, with the freedom fighters’ reservations being abolished. The recent High Court decision, however, overturned these reforms, which led to the current wave of unrest.
Although the Supreme Court decision has enforced the post-2018 status quo, the protests have continued, which has highly likely been conditioned by the wider context for the unrest. The protestors are mainly students, and government jobs are the primary reasonable prospect for their future employment. Bangladesh has undergone substantial economic growth in recent years, but this has been largely predicated on the expansion of readymade garments (RMG) exports, an industry which has not provided adequate employment for educated Bangladeshi youth. Out of a total population of 171 million, 32 million young Bangladeshis are not in work or education, according to a prominent Bangladeshi think tank. Bangladesh has a particularly young population, with 67 per cent being working age, and over 25 per cent being aged 15-29. Considering the unemployment crisis, the anticipated return of the quota system for government jobs almost certainly provided a major threat to the already limited future job prospects of many Bangladeshi students.
Additionally, protestors are frustrated with the prolonged repression of the ruling Awami League party. Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Pakistan’s founder, Sheikh Rehman, has been the Prime Minister of Bangladesh since 2009. The government was re-elected in January 2024 following an election that was widely criticised as undemocratic, and the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), boycotted the vote. The ruling party has seized the opportunity to further suppress the opposition, blaming the BNP for the protests. In the aftermath of the recent unrest, police raided the BNP headquarters, making several arrests. Hasina referred to the protestors as “razakars”, a highly derogatory term for traitors who collaborated with Pakistan in the independence war, prompting outrage. While Hasina has since condemned the “murder” of protestors, on 18 July, protest leaders vowed to continue and the civil unrest will highly likely continue over the coming weeks.
While predominantly in Dhaka, particularly in the vicinity of the University of Dhaka, Jahangirnagar University, and other universities and colleges, unrest has also been reported in Chattogram, Khulna and Rangpur. Furthermore, there is a realistic possibility that instability and government repression may increase the threat of terrorism in Bangladesh – the BNP was historically in government with the banned Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami party, and multiple terrorist groups, including Islamic State – Bengal Province, are active in Bangladesh.
Taiwan: Trump states Taiwan should pay US for protection, prompting substantial chip stocks selloff
In an interview released on 16 July, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stated that Taiwan should pay the US for its defence. Trump’s comments sparked anxiety regarding the strength of future US support for Taiwan against China. This prompted a dramatic fall in the price of chip stocks, with Wall Street’s semiconductor index losing over 480 billion USD in stock market value on 17 July.
Solace Global Assessment:
Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, has been claimed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a de jure territory since the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) government fled the mainland to Taiwan during the Chinese Civil War in 1949. While de facto a separate state, Taiwan’s status as an independent nation is only recognised by a handful of nations. In recent years, tensions have increased dramatically, particularly following a 2022 white paper published by the PRC which called reunification an “indispensable” goal and has held a series of large-scale military drills around Taiwan simulating invasion.
Although ambiguous, the US’s role as a guarantor of Taiwan’s security is highly likely a crucial deterrent against the PRC. While Biden has sought to affirm this role, Trump’s comments have raised doubts about the strength of US support, with polls currently projecting Trump to likely be the next US president. In his previous presidency, Trump employed distinctly anti-PRC rhetoric and aggressive trade policies, and he recently chose JD Vance, a China hawk, as his running mate. Trump’s comments, therefore, have come as a surprise to some, with speculation that Trump is giving Taiwan the “Ukraine treatment”.
On the one hand, Trump’s comments may reflect an isolationist foreign policy which threatens the reduction of US deterrence against future PRC military actions against Taiwan. It is highly likely, however, that these comments are instead part of Trump’s transactional diplomacy. The key point of contention raised by Trump was Taiwan’s dominance of the “chip business”, with Taiwan producing 92 per cent of the global supply of advanced microchips. It is unlikely that a second Trump administration would seriously consider abandoning, albeit ambiguous, commitments to Taiwan’s security. Trump is instead, likely attempting to leverage the US’ vital defence role for Taiwan to pressure the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) into committing to build more chip fabrication plants in the US, should he win the November election.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Pakistan Moves to Ban Imran Khan’s PTI Party
The government of Pakistan has announced that it will move to ban the Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is currently imprisoned. TPI still retains massive popular support, and a recent Supreme Court ruling made it the largest force in the Pakistani parliament. Alongside banning PTI, the government has also announced that it will press treason charges against Khan. It is almost certain that if the move to ban PTI moves forward, it will translate into extremely severe and widespread violent civil unrest. There is a high likelihood that the government, which has recently further expanded the military’s powers by granting the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) the authorisation to intercept calls and messages for reasons of national security, is betting on provoking large protests to quash dissenting voices and organisations.
Nepalese Prime Minister Dahal Ousted in Confidence Vote
Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal lost a confidence vote, leading to the creation of a new government on 12 July, led by K.P. Sharma Oli. The government crisis was initiated by Oli’s party, the liberal Communist Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) party, which struck a government deal with the centrist Nepali Congress (NC) party. UML is considered a pro-Beijing party, and Oli has flirted with the idea of reopening territorial disputes with India. In turn, Delhi has pressured Nepal not to begin projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
North Korea Sacks Senior Officials Over Samjiyon Project, Sparking Speculation of Major Purge
On 14 July, North Korean media reported the sacking of multiple senior officials for their “irresponsible” handling of the construction of Samjiyon, a mega-project consisting of a city in a mountainous part of the country’s north. The building of Samjiyon was reportedly slowed down by North Korea’s economic difficulties, and authorities used dissidents as “slave labour” during the construction works. The announcement of government divisions in the highly controlled North Korean media is extremely rare. There is a realistic possibility that the announcement is a prelude to a major government purge, with the Samjiyon project acting as a convenient justification.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Suicide Bomber and Insurgents Attack Pakistani Military Facility, Protests Erupt in Bannu
On 15 July in Bannu, in northwestern Pakistan’s troubled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a suicide bomber and armed insurgents attacked a military facility, resulting in the deaths of at least four soldiers and injuries to numerous others, including civilians. The attack, which involved a vehicle-borne explosive and subsequent gunfire, was quickly suppressed by security forces, with all five attackers reportedly killed. On 19 July, a demonstration was organised in Bannu to protest the rising insecurity in the region. However, the protest was fired upon by with conflicting reports as to whether or not it was militants or government troops.
Uttar Pradesh Police Demand Restaurant Employee Names, Raising Sectarian Tensions
In the Uttar Pradesh state of northern India, police reportedly demanded that restaurant owners display the names of their employees at the beginning of Shravan month. The demand is likely meant to single out Muslim-owned or -staffed businesses at a period of high influx of Hindus, and possibly seeking to inflame sectarian violence. Religion-driven violence, especially targeting physical assets and storefronts, is extremely common in India and is often a response to direct calls from local politicians. Despite their anti-Muslim rhetoric backfiring at the recent elections, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) politicians, especially at the local level, have continued calls for anti-Muslim violence.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Floods in Eastern Afghanistan Kill 40 and Injure 250
At least 40 people have been killed, and 250 injured, by floods in eastern Afghanistan. The entire region is currently experiencing severe flooding coinciding with the height of the monsoon season. The severity of the current flooding is partly anomalous, and reports link it with ongoing anthropogenic climate change. In Afghanistan, the death toll from floods is likely to increase due to insufficient infrastructure and the precarious stability and lack of resources of the Taliban regime.
Six Found Dead from Cyanide Poisoning at Bangkok Hotel
On 16 July, six individuals, four Vietnamese and two US nationals, were discovered dead at a luxury hotel in Bangkok, Thailand. Further analysis of the bodies showed that all died from cyanide poisoning. Currently, the most discussed hypothesis is that of a dispute over debts leading to the killings.
Fire at Zigong Shopping Centre in China Kills 16
16 people died as a result of a fire at a shopping centre in the city of Zigong in Sichuan province, China. The 14-storey building is located in the high-tech district of Zigong, and the entire structure was engulfed in flames leading to a major firefighting and rescue operation. Official national sources reported that 75 people were rescued. According to an official source, China has suffered from 947 fire-related deaths between January and May 2024, indicating the continuing risk of fire hazards in China. The majority of these fires are caused by issues with gas or electrical lines, as well as “carelessness”. China will likely continue to experience sporadic major fires, due to widespread poor and cost-cutting construction practices.
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Risk Management and Insurance Partnership for War Zones
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OneAdvent’s New Partnership with Solace Global Risk to Bolster its A&H Hostile Territory Product Offering
One Advent, the specialist MGA services platform, has today announced a new partnership with risk management and security services company, Solace Global Risk. The link up will provide a holistic insurance and risk management offering to clients within its A&H MGA.
Expanding A&H Insurance Solutions with Expert Collaboration
OneAdvent’s A&H MGA was launched more than two years ago by Alexis Fehler, a seasoned underwriter who has developed a number of bespoke A&H products that are currently in the market today. Since then, the MGA has worked with media organisations, charities, NGOs and others to provide bespoke accident and health products, such as emergency medical treatment and repatriation expenses, Permanent Total Disability and business travel coverage.
Addressing Global Challenges with Comprehensive Risk Management
Events of the last 18 months, including the war in Ukraine and the ongoing hostilities in Gaza, have highlighted the need for a comprehensive hostile territory solution for corporations and organisations operating in conflict areas. The new partnership will enhance OneAdvent’s offering to clients by leveraging Solace’s international network of security experts in 191 countries to provide in-country support, as well as its 24/7 global security operations centre.
Alexis Fehler, founder of OneAdvent’s A&H MGA commented: “Sadly, situations like those in Ukraine and Gaza have emphasised the need for a comprehensive risk management solution and our new partnership is set to address the complexities these hostile territories present to our clients. I’m delighted to be working with a team of specialist analysts and security forces at Solace to bolster our offering”.
Emily Roberts, Managing Director at Solace Global Risk added; “We have been enabling organisations to operate in hostile and complex environments for over a decade with tailored security processes and risk management strategies. I’m confident with our proven success and specialist knowledge, that we can offer that extra layer of support to clients to complement OneAdvent’s existing offering.”
About OneAdvent
OneAdvent offers a proven Managing General Agent (MGA) platform that helps insurance businesses accelerate their market entry and growth. Their team offers personalised, collaborative support to streamline operations and enhance profitability, helping clients bring innovative insurance solutions to market efficiently. With a focus on agility, flexibility, and creativity, OneAdvent serves as an innovation accelerator for the industry.
Enhancing resilience and business continuity planning.
Solace Global Risk is a leading provider of comprehensive risk management solutions, serving clients globally with a commitment to excellence. With a worldwide presence and a team of seasoned experts, Solace Global Risk empowers organisations to navigate complex risk landscapes with confidence and resilience.
Journey Risk Management
Global Security and Threat Intelligence
Risk Management Software
Diligent in-country travel security
Be one step ahead to prevent a crisis
Travel with confidence
Your duty of care doesn’t end the moment your people set foot in their destination – and neither does ours.
From transfers to ongoing security and emergency evacuations, our travel risk services always have you covered.
Arm yourself with the knowledge to avoid a potential threat from turning into a crisis. Intelligence advisories give you tailored reports to anticipate possible disruptions, mitigate risk and help you make well-informed decisions, faster.
Give your people peace of mind when they travel for work, so they remain focused on the job at hand. We mitigate risks, manage incidents if they occur, and support your people with security advice or help in a crisis.
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Industry Expert Joins Solace Global
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Solace Global is delighted to announce the appointment of Robert Aldous as Chief Customer Officer.
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Robert Aldous
With over 20 years of experience in risk management and security, Robert is poised to bring a fresh, client and customer-focused approach to further enhance our market influence and reputation for excellence in the industry. A multi-award-winning risk professional, Robert is renowned for his ability to develop, implement and communicate industry-leading strategies to navigate and mitigate risks in complex and dynamic environments.
Robert’s extensive background spans military service in the MENA regions and pivotal roles in both the public and private sectors. Notable achievements include establishing an industry-leading crisis and travel security response centre and transforming an FTSE 100 organisation’s approach to non-financial risk with the implementation of an award-winning enterprise risk system.
As CCO, Robert will lead our approach to sales, marketing, and solution development, rooted in collaboration and knowledge sharing, that aligns perfectly with Solace Global’s mission, values, and growth mindset. Actively engaging with industry forums and roundtable discussions, Robert will foster our community of best practice among security professionals.
“We are excited to welcome Robert to Solace Global,” said Emily Roberts, Managing Director of Solace Global. “His deep understanding of risk management and security, coupled with his passion for collaboration and innovation, will be instrumental in enhancing our customer and client experience, reinforcing our position as a growing leader in the security industry.”
Reflecting on his new role, Robert commented, “As I embark on this new chapter as Chief Customer Officer, I hope to support Solace Global Risk in achieving its future strategy and full potential in the risk and security sector. I have always admired the organisation, its team, and its glowing reputation. I am extremely excited about the opportunity to deliver real value to our customers and clients, and I look forward to collaborating with the team to ensure a people first approach to solution development.”
Enhancing resilience and business continuity planning.
Solace Global Risk is a leading provider of comprehensive risk management solutions, serving clients globally with a commitment to excellence. With a worldwide presence and a team of seasoned experts, Solace Global Risk empowers organisations to navigate complex risk landscapes with confidence and resilience.
Journey Risk Management
Global Security and Threat Intelligence
Risk Management Software
Diligent in-country travel security
Be one step ahead to prevent a crisis
Travel with confidence
Your duty of care doesn’t end the moment your people set foot in their destination – and neither does ours.
From transfers to ongoing security and emergency evacuations, our travel risk services always have you covered.
Arm yourself with the knowledge to avoid a potential threat from turning into a crisis. Intelligence advisories give you tailored reports to anticipate possible disruptions, mitigate risk and help you make well-informed decisions, faster.
Give your people peace of mind when they travel for work, so they remain focused on the job at hand. We mitigate risks, manage incidents if they occur, and support your people with security advice or help in a crisis.
Connect with Robert
Executive Summary
- Likely occurring between August and October, the La Niña weather system has a realistic possibility of driving floods in Southeast Asia and increasing food insecurity in the Pacific Islands.
- The Russian plot to assassinate a German arms CEO and increased sabotage attacks are almost certainly indicative of a wider campaign of hybrid warfare against the West.
- It is unlikely that Hamas will be militarily compelled to reduce its demands for a permanent ceasefire and full IDF withdrawal in Gaza while they maintain combat effectiveness across the Strip.
- There is a realistic possibility that increased National Resistance Front of Afghanistan attacks against the Taliban will be exploited by ISKP to expand its operations.
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AMER
Canada: Canada to treble submarine fleet to protect the Arctic
Haiti: Gangs declare “war” as Kenya forces make early progress
Equator: La Niña weather system has a high chance of developing in August
EMEA
Europe-wide: US bases placed on high alert due to Russian sabotage
Germany: US exposes Russian plot to kill Rheinmetall CEO
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: US pier to be dismantled, ceasefire talks falter
Sahel: Junta states sign “confederation” agreement, turn away from ECOWAS
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): UN report shows Rwanda-M23 ties
APAC
Afghanistan: NRF attacks challenge Taliban authority
Pakistan: Intelligence agency to conduct electronic surveillance
Global Dates and Events
The final of the European Football Championship, between Spain and England, is scheduled to take place on 14 July, while the final of the Copa America, between Argentina and Colombia will occur on 15 July. Due to the nature of the events and their global reach, the matches may result in limited traffic disruptions.
The Islamic holiday of Ashura takes place on 16-17 July. The holiday is not a major one for Sunnis, while it has a particularly notable value for Shias, for whom it is associated with the death of Husayn ibn Ali and, in general, with martyrdom for the faith. Likely due to the sectarian differences linked with the holiday (and its importance to the development of Shia religious identity) attacks targeting Shia communities have occurred on Ashura, the latest taking place in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 2015.
North, Central and South America
Canada and the Arctic: Ottawa announces plans to renew and triple submarine force.
Canada has announced plans to acquire up to 12 new submarines to strengthen its Arctic deterrence at the NATO 75th anniversary summit. Ottawa has cited the need to improve its submarine capabilities to covertly detect and deter maritime threats, to counter challenges from Russia and China in the region and to secure future shipping routes in the Arctic Ocean.
The Department of National Defence indicated that the Royal Canadian Navy’s current inventory of four ageing Victoria-class submarines is becoming obsolete and too costly to maintain. The new submarines will be diesel-electric rather than nuclear-powered and are capable of operating under the ice.
The acquisition also forms part of a broader effort aimed at increasing defence spending to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2030.
Solace Global Assessment:
The timing of the procurement is likely an attempt to deflect from Canada’s sustained failure to meet NATO defence spending pledges of two per cent of GDP, a failure that may soon be emphasised under a potential Trump presidency who has historically lambasted NATO members for not meeting this requirement. However, Canada’s primary reason to improve and triple its current submarine fleet is to protect the hard-to-defend Arctic waters such as the Northwest Passage, with some estimates suggesting that climate change and retreating ice cover will turn the Arctic Ocean into the most efficient shipping route between Europe and East Asia by 2050.
Russia has long coveted the idea of a “Northern Sea Route” which China endorses as part of its “Ice Silk Road”. These maritime trade routes are considerably shorter than the Suez route and require less fuel expenses, currently entail no expensive transit tolls and face a negligible threat from piracy or militant groups. Moreover, Russia has competing claims with Canada in the Arctic, with both countries claiming the Lomonosov Ridge as an extension of their respective continental shelves. China, which hasn’t been so bold as to refer to itself as an Arctic power, published a 2018 White Paper wherein it claimed to be a “near-Arctic state”, citing its right to conduct scientific research and environmental protection.
The Arctic’s potential for trade, abundance in hydrocarbons, mineral wealth, fishing and potential military advantages is attracting both Moscow and Beijing, who tentatively support each other to counter the West. Both countries have also deployed civilian-flagged oceanographic research vessels to the area to collect important bathymetric and hydrographic data such as water column profiles, seafloor mapping, depth measurements, sound velocity profiles, ambient noise levels and much more. This data can inform genuine civilian scientific research but is likely “dual-purpose” research that can be used to expand and improve submarine operations.
In the long term, this may help them assert claims, protect shipping routes, improve their submarine-based strike capabilities, improve intelligence gathering and gain a strategic edge over NATO in an area that will almost certainly become increasingly important in a potential future conflict. Russia and China may also exploit Arctic access to better understand North American undersea critical national infrastructure such as internet cables and gas pipelines- the sabotage of which is highly deniable and likely features as part of their sub-threshold “grey zone” activity that can cause huge economic loss without triggering a kinetic response.
However, Canada’s decision to procure diesel-electric submarines will likely play into the hands of Russia and China. The Russian Federation Navy (RFN) and China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine fleets are becoming increasingly nuclear-powered, providing them a significant advantage in terms of stealth and endurance.
Haiti: Gangs “declare war” on advancing police mission.
On 8 July, Jimmy “Barbecue” Charizier, leader of Haiti’s largest gang network “G9” and seen as a de facto spokesperson for the country’s criminal syndicates, declared that his group would initiate a “war” against the UN-backed “invaders” — referring to the 400 Kenyan police officers deployed to Haiti to help quell ongoing gang-related violence.
The Kenyan forces have begun carrying out the first series of operations in Port-au-Prince, retaking control of key buildings including the country’s largest hospital. Unconfirmed reports state that the gangs attempted a “counterattack” to retake the building on 10 July.
Solace Global Assessment:
The gangs almost certainly maintain the strategic objective of extending the period of lawlessness in the country as it allows for them to carry out illegal actions, including running smuggling routes to the US and the Caribbean, without any credible opposition. It is highly unlikely that G9 represents or even seeks to represent a political alternative to the ruling government. Still, the somewhat “anti-imperialist” rhetoric used by the gangs may be an effort to gather popular support and possibly discourage collaboration with Kenyan forces.
In recent months, Haitian gangs have increased attacks on local institutions and on foreign humanitarian workers, including by carrying out targeted killings of American missionaries. Such actions are highly likely meant to force the civilian population to rely on gangs for the provision of basic goods and services.
The capture of the largest hospital in Port-au-Prince may indicate that the joint Kenyan-Haitian police operations are seeking to restore popular confidence in legal administrative rule through the symbolic creation of pockets of “normalcy”. The gangs will likely respond to such efforts by increasing attacks on institutions and individuals involved in humanitarian efforts, including foreigners, to deny the police an opportunity to carry out normalisation efforts.
The Equator: US forecasts assess La Nina to have a 70 per cent chance of developing between August and October.
“La Niña” is a weather pattern that can develop as part of multi-year cycles and follows El Niño. It is marked by cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Usually, the cycle involving El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral period (the cycle is known as ENSO, or “El Niño-Southern Oscillation”) lasts between two and seven years.
Solace Global Assessment:
La Niña is associated with an increased frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean. In South America, La Niña can cause heavier rains, possibly leading to floods in countries such as Brazil. However, the weather pattern has also important implications for the APAC region.
There is a realistic possibility that generally lower air pressures in the western Pacific will drive increased rain and flooding in northern Australia. In Southeast and South Asia, La Niña is likely to provoke a more prolonged and heavier monsoon season. While this may stimulate the local economy by increasing crop yields in India and neighbouring countries, increasing rains may also result in floods and landslides, especially in areas victims of deforestation or those with little drainage infrastructure.
La Niña’s positive impacts on South American and South Asian agriculture may reverberate in Africa, possibly resulting in a medium-term improvement in the influx of grain, rice, and other cereals to food-insecure countries. This, in turn, may lead to alterations in local risk profiles where there was previously food insecurity.
La Niña may also cause a decrease in rainfall volumes in the Pacific Islands, possibly leading to localised droughts. In addition, studying La Niña’s impact will likely allow researchers to better understand how the ENSO is impacting, and being affected by, climate change.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Biden Reaffirms 2024 Candidacy Amidst Health Speculations and Criticism
US President Joe Biden reiterated that he will be the Democratic Party’s candidate in the 2024 presidential elections amid speculation about his health. The statement, on 5 July, followed a poor performance at the first presidential debate with Republican opponent and former President Donald Trump and calls from party insiders to replace the incumbent Biden with another Democrat. On 11 July, Biden was further challenged after his poor performance at the NATO summit which was criticised by Democrat party members and supporters.
Argentine President Milei Skips Mercosur Meeting
Argentine President Milei skipped a Mercosur trade block meeting in Paraguay and instead headed to Brazil on 7 July, where he met former President Bolsonaro. Milei’s decision to attend an anti-Socialism event in Rio de Janeiro, instead of meeting current President Lula, is likely meant to continue rallying support at home. At the same time, Milei’s constant diplomatic insults towards the leftist president of Brazil risk resulting in tangible negative effects on the two countries’ relations.e as usual.
Argentina’s Inflation Rate Rises to 5% in June
Argentina’s monthly inflation rate marginally increased to 5 per cent in June, ending a five-month streak of decreases. The increase is likely a result of revisions in utility rates. The development, albeit likely not particularly relevant to Argentina’s broader economic outlook, is likely to be widely reported on by local media and may drive further anti-government unrest.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Cuba Foils US-Sourced Arms Smuggling Plot
On 8 July, Cuban authorities announced they had foiled a plot to smuggle arms and ammunition from the United States into Cuba, detaining nearly three dozen people involved in a scheme to destabilise the government. The plot was first revealed in December when a Cuban man arrived from the US by jetski with weapons to recruit others for acts of violence. According to the Cuban authorities, a seven-month investigation exposed a broader plan involving at least 32 Cuban residents connected to a US-based group, La Nueva Nación Cubana.
Havana has accused the US of allowing the accused to act with impunity in the US, with the US State Department responding by stating that it only prosecutes based on US law- a development that will likely further strain relations between the two countries.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Deadly Heatwave Hits Western US
In the United States, at least 28 people have reportedly died because of an ongoing heatwave in California, Oregon and Arizona. 14 of these cases were in California. Over the past week, temperatures have persistently exceeded 38 degrees Celsius across the American West, with multiple record highs recorded across the region. A record high of 48.8 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) in Las Vegas was recorded on 7 July.
Officials have indicated that many of the victims were elderly or homeless and that the number of deaths is not exceptionally high for the region and therefore not yet a cause for alarm. However, in part aided by improved data collection and classification methods, heat-related deaths have been steadily increasing in recent years, a trend which is likely to continue as global warming increases both the intensity and regularity of heat waves.
Pantanal Fires Devastate Nearly 800,000 Hectares
Reporting from Brazil indicates that nearly 800,000 hectares have now been burned in the Pantanal, the world’s largest wetland and one of the most biodiverse areas globally. This region, spanning 16.9 million hectares and also encompassing parts of Bolivia and Paraguay, supports a rich diversity of flora and fauna, much of which is endangered.
The Pantanal is not only crucial for its biodiversity but also home to many indigenous communities who rely on the land and its resources. The recent fires have already claimed livestock, a vital asset for these communities, which may escalate tensions and unrest, potentially pressuring the central government for assistance.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Europe-wide: US military placed on high alert in response to Russian sabotage threat.
Undisclosed US defence sources have reported that US military bases were recently placed on Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “Charlie,” indicating a high alert status. This response comes in light of credible threats suggesting potential sabotage attacks by Russian-backed actors. Intelligence sources indicated that Russian proxies were planning attacks against US military personnel and facilities across multiple European countries.
The planned attacks were purportedly designed to replicate a series of recent successful or disrupted attacks in the region. In April, two German-Russian nationals were apprehended for allegedly plotting arson and bomb attacks under Russian direction. Similarly, in March, several individuals were arrested and charged with conspiring with Russian intelligence to commit arson against a Ukrainian-linked warehouse. Additionally, there have been numerous incidents of suspicious fires and explosions in countries where Russian intelligence historically maintains strong influence, such as the Baltics, Poland, and the Czech Republic.
Solace Global Assessment:
These attacks are almost certainly part of Russia’s broader strategy of “grey zone” or “hybrid” warfare against the West, motivated by its support for Ukraine. Despite significant military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s foreign intelligence agencies like the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) are likely operational and focused on identifying and targeting logistical support for Kyiv.
With kinetic strikes against facilities supporting Ukraine not feasible, Russia appears to be relying on proxy groups to carry out sabotage acts. This approach allows the Kremlin to maintain plausible deniability and reduce the risk of direct escalation. By leveraging proxy groups, nationalist elements in Europe, and potentially criminal networks, Russia aims to disrupt weapon deliveries to Ukraine, deter NATO support, and sow division within the alliance.
However, Russian proxy groups likely face challenges accessing highly secure military bases or weapons facilities. Therefore, they may target less secure infrastructure such as factories producing non-lethal aid, communication equipment, or vulnerable parts of Ukraine’s logistics network like railway lines.
As the conflict persists, Russia may escalate its asymmetric activities. This could involve intensifying disinformation campaigns to stoke divisions in the West, expanding maritime capabilities for deniable undersea sabotage against critical infrastructure, or increasing cyber operations.
Notably, Russia has refrained from conducting sabotage on US soil, potentially due to the risk of severe escalation. Yet, concerns arise from an influx of illegal Russian immigrants into the US, raising fears of Kremlin exploitation to establish networks capable of mimicking European-style asymmetric tactics. This could include targeting facilities associated with Ukraine on American soil if tensions escalate significantly.
In summary, Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics continue to evolve, leveraging proxies and asymmetric methods to achieve strategic objectives while managing international perceptions and minimizing direct military confrontation with Western powers.
Germany: US intelligence exposes Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO
US intelligence has stated that it discovered a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the CEO of the major German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. The assassination plot was reportedly in advanced stages and was part of a broader effort to target defence industry executives providing support for Ukraine’s military campaign against Russia. US intelligence reportedly warned the German security services which then protected Papperger.
Solace Global Assessment:
Rheinmetall is one of the world’s largest arms producers which manufactures vital conventional weapon systems such as artillery shells, tank munitions and armoured vehicles. Rheinmetall’s arms have been used extensively in the war in Ukraine and the company has plans to establish factories within Ukraine’s borders, making the company a primary target for Russia.
The plot to assassinate Rheinmetall’s CEO was likely sanctioned by the Kremlin to deter privately-run arms companies from providing assistance to Ukraine and likely falls under Moscow’s wider hybrid warfare strategy. However, unlike Russia’s sabotage campaign, the Kremlin would unlikely be able to rely on proxy groups within Europe due to the sensitivity and complexity of such an operation.
Russian intelligence has a long history of assassinating Russian dissidents throughout Europe and has traditionally escaped with only minor repercussions such as the expulsion of diplomats, many of whom were suspected of being undercover intelligence agents. The assassination of a European executive would be a marked escalation but one Russia is likely willing to pursue given the circumstances and its potential to deter future assistance.
The Russian military has sustained huge losses on the battlefield, Kyiv has recently been authorised to conduct limited strikes into mainland Russia and the Kremlin is struggling to counter Ukraine’s ever-developing asymmetric capabilities such as drones and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). Moreover, the success of sanctions on Russia has been questionable and has driven Moscow closer to the West’s adversaries, providing the West with few effective deterrents against Russia’s increasingly emboldened grey zone activity.
Private arms companies supporting Kyiv have frequently visited Ukraine, a detail widely covered by the media. If Russia is conducting an assassination campaign against private arms companies, there is a high likelihood that it will aim to target them in Ukraine, given the more permissive operational environment and the opportunity to attribute the attacks to a pro-Russian proxy involved in the war.
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: US pier to be dismantled, operations in Gaza City, and ceasefire talks struggle to progress
Having been operational for only 20 days over the last two months, the US-built pier in Gaza is set to be dismantled in “short order”. Meanwhile, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has been conducting operations in Gaza City, particularly Shujaiya. On 10 July, the IDF urged all Gaza City residents to evacuate south.
Both Hamas and Israel have been accused of stalling ceasefire negotiations, and there have been reports that the Hamas political leadership is considering moving from Qatar to Iraq. In Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in a 10 July speech projected confidence against the potential of a major IDF offensive and indicated that Hezbollah would accept Hamas’ decision on the outcome of their negotiations, ceasing cross-border operations if a ceasefire is reached. On 11 July, drone strikes launched from Lebanon hit northern Israel, killing one IDF reservist.
Solace Global Assessment:
The US-built and military-run Gaza humanitarian pier operation, which cost USD 230 million, has been plagued by two key challenges since it first started operating on 17 May. Firstly, inclement weather has resulted in operations being suspended at the pier multiple times. Secondly, the onshore distribution of the aid has been considerably hampered by what aid organisations consider to be intolerable security risks for its workers. In its two-month history, the pier has only delivered a single day’s worth of pre-war aid into Gaza. The pier was met with suspicion by both Israelis and Palestinians, the former due to the pier’s perceived role as a US reaction to endemic humanitarian concerns in Gaza, and the latter due to the US’s role as Israel’s primary military ally. Overall, it is highly likely that the pier, marred by problems, has failed in offsetting the Palestinian perception of the US as being fundamentally pro-Israel.
The IDF’s operations in Gaza City over the past week, in both Shujaiya and Tel al-Hawa, reveal the continued presence of Hamas in northern Gaza. The IDF has previously claimed such areas had been cleared of fighters. However, the current operations have been notably intense and this is only the second during the conflict that evacuation instructions have been leafleted across Gaza City. 250,000 people are estimated to be in Gaza City, and it is unlikely that the new evacuation orders will be followed en masse. Most of the city’s previous population that were more willing or able to relocate have done so already, and some residents have indicated that would not feel any safer in the south, where Israel has allegedly ignored humanitarian zones. While ceasefire negotiations are ongoing in Doha, key issues remain divisive.
Supported by recent claims from Hamas spokespeople regarding the regeneration of combatants and materiel in previously “cleared” areas, Hamas likely remains confident that they are maintaining sufficient combat effectiveness across the Strip to continue pursuing its demands in the negotiations. Hamas has been resistant to any deal that does not commit Israel to a permanent ceasefire and full IDF withdrawal, while Israel has objected to terms which might enable Hamas to continue holding hostages and indefinitely halt IDF operations. The IDF will likely be unable to compel Hamas to accept Israel’s strategic objectives coercively with military force, as long as Hamas remains combat-effective across the Strip.
Sahel Region: ECOWAS disappointed with junta states’ attempts to form alternative block.
On 6 July, the three junta-led states of the Sahel region – Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso – signed a “confederation treaty” at the first summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). All three junta governments came to power after 2020, and, in January 2024, all three removed their countries from the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The regional bloc said it was “disappointed” by the lack of rapprochement and called for further “reconciliation” efforts.
Solace Global Assessment:
All three juntas have adopted somewhat convergent foreign policies characterised by a rejection of ties with Western governments, and instead increased relations with Russia.
The three juntas are particularly plagued by a growing threat posed by Islamist insurgents, with the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), among other fundamentalist groups, gaining considerable ground in areas where government control is tenuous (this is especially the case in Niger, where the eastern border region of the Chad basin continues to provide a sanctuary for insurgent groups).
The joint counterterrorism initiative launched by the three states in March is unlikely to pose a sufficient obstacle to the insurgents, and it is almost certain that the announcement of the latest agreement will be followed by further deals with Moscow.
The worsening in the relations between AES and ECOWAS, with the latter likely to impose further rounds of sanctions following the failure of the latest rapprochement efforts, may benefit regional violent extremist organisations (VEOs), which likely aim to destabilise the juntas to establish alternative administrative organs.
Still, ISWAP and other Islamist groups likely have a long-term strategic interest in establishing a presence in the comparatively wealthier coastal states that border the junta ones, including Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
The completion of the withdrawal of US troops from a key base for counterterrorism in Niger overlapped with the AES’ announcement of the treaty. The withdrawal of Western troops could result in a more marked regionalisation of the Sahel region, with Washington likely seeking to increase efforts to court coastal powers.
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): UN report establishes M23 links to Uganda and direct participation of Rwandan soldiers.
On 8 July, a UN report indicated that at least 3,000 Rwandan troops are directly fighting the DRC’s army alongside the M23 group, a militia operating in the eastern DRC that is led by ethnic Tutsis. Moreover, the report states that the Ugandan government is at least enabling M23 operations by granting M23 and Rwandan troops free access to its territory. The M23 group is mostly active in the North Kivu province which borders both Rwanda and Uganda and is rich in natural resources including gold, diamonds, coltan, and cassiterite.
Solace Global Assessment:
The M23 militia likely represents a strategic asset for Kigali, as the group is directly involved in the informal trade of rare earth minerals and other resources to developed countries through its territorial control over DRC mining areas. Kigali, which responded to the report by accusing the DRC of funding ethnic Hutu insurgents, almost certainly exercises much control over the group, and the presence of large numbers of Rwandan troops in the M23’s ranks further demonstrates this point.
Possibly, the recent escalation is a reflection of Rwanda’s improving position on the international stage, marked by increasingly closer relations with Western states. Uganda’s seeming acquiescence to M23 troop movements is not necessarily proof of direct government support for the militia, but may rather reflect localised support, possibly of Ugandan officials benefitting from M23 operations, or a simple lack of administrative and security assets that would allow Ugandan forces to efficiently control their borders.
Much of the southern border area between Uganda, Rwanda and North Kivu is sparsely populated and characterised by rough and uneven terrain, with the border marked by a string of dormant volcanoes, and there is a high likelihood that militia troops moving in the direction of Goma can evade government forces with relative ease.
In late June, M23 seized the strategic town of Kanyabayoinga, North Kivu, which is a transport hub to northern DRC. Currently, DRC forces, which are also dealing with crises in the western border regions, as well as constant threats of disaggregation and rebellion (as testified by the recent failed coup) are likely worse equipped than M23 forces and are almost certainly unable to effectively prevent further advances.
The ongoing challenges faced by the DRC’s forces are likely driving the delay in the withdrawal of UN forces from the country. After asking the UN to fast-track the exit of peacekeepers from the country, the government asked, on 9 July, to pause the second phase of the withdrawal process, citing “Rwanda’s continued aggression in North Kivu”. Currently, the MONUSCO mission maintains a 17,000-strong contingent. On 25 June, its South Kivu region centre was disbanded.
There is a realistic possibility that the scaling back of the UN deployment will produce a localised power vacuum in the region, allowing for regional powers to more actively pursue their ambitions in the eastern DRC. So far, local Congolese rebel groups, mostly the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), have controlled and allowed foreign access to mining areas, often to the benefit of Europe-based suppliers, or suppliers from regional powers including South Africa.
The M23’s advances could allow for powers with a lesser footprint in the area, including China, which is reportedly engaged in illegal gold extraction operations in the bordering region of South Kivu, to establish new informal extraction and shipping networks, possibly playing out broader geopolitical rivalries.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
UK Labour Government Announces Moderate Agenda with National Wealth Fund and Policy Reversals
The new Labour government of the UK announced its first set of measures of its five-year legislature. They include the creation of a National Wealth Fund, the withdrawal of the controversial Rwanda deportation plan, and the scrapping of a ban on onshore wind farms.
The new Labour government has not promised particularly drastic reforms, instead concentrating on a growth-centric moderate plan marked by targeted spending. Early data suggests that the government’s start has been welcomed warmly by foreign investors, who are likely increasingly looking to the UK as more stable than its continental counterparts, and possibly the US, where the Trump campaign continues to gain traction.
French National Assembly Elections: New Popular Front Wins Second Round, Coalition Government Uncertain
The second round of the French National Assembly elections was won by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), although they did not win enough seats to form a majority. Currently, the parliament is divided into three blocs, none of which have the seats to form a government.
There is a high likelihood of further protests as President Emmanuel Macron seeks to assemble a viable coalition. In particular, unrest is likely to be driven by the French Unbowed (LFI) party, which, despite receiving the highest number of votes among the NFP members, is unlikely to be included in a new coalition government.
Catalan Independence Protest March Planned in Barcelona, 13 July
Activists affiliated with the Catalan National Assembly plan to conduct a protest march through central Barcelona on 13 July. The purpose of the demonstration is to condemn the Spanish application of the Amnesty Law and show support for Calalunya’s independence. There will likely be an increase in security forces within the vicinity of the demonstration and travel disruptions between Urquinaona Square and Saint Jaume Square are to be anticipated.
G7 Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Calabria: Security Tightened Amidst Protest Concerns
The G7 Trade Ministers’ Meeting will be held in Villa San Giovanni and Reggio Calabria in the Italian region of Calabria on 16-17 July 2024. The meeting will almost certainly involve heightened security measures and has the capacity to attract protest movements.
Russia Introduces Progressive Income Tax
The Russian government has passed new legislation introducing progressive income tax rates that will affect around 3.2 per cent of working Russians. The Ministry of Finance projects that the tax will boost its 2025 inflows by 533 billion rubles (USD 6 billion). The move likely reflects Moscow’s prediction of a protracted war in Ukraine, and Putin’s recent turn towards a more statist economic policy.
EU Suspends Georgia’s Accession Process Over “Foreign Agents” Bill
EU officials announced on 9 July that, following the approval of the controversial and authoritarian “foreign agents” bill, the accession process of Georgia has been suspended, leading to pauses in the provision of military aid through the European Peace Facility (EPF). The government in Tbilisi will likely use the announcement to redouble efforts to quash dissent and move the country closer to Moscow’s orbit.
Modi-Putin Summit Highlights India-Russia Relations Amidst Global Tensions
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the Kremlin on 9 July, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite Delhi’s historic commitment to non-alignment, Russia represents a vital supplier of cheap oil for India, more so after Russia’s trade with the West decreased due to the growing sanctions regime.
Moreover, Indian officials likely seek to appeal to Russia for a change of stance regarding the large influx of Indian “foreign fighters” joining Russian forces in Ukraine in exchange for promises of large pay, and sometimes even following coercion.
For Putin, the summit is highly likely a diplomatic success, as Russia continues to herald the BRICS group as a possible alternative to Western summits and claims to have resisted Western attempts to isolate it following its invasion of Ukraine.
Syrian Parliamentary Election Expected to Maintain Status Quo Under Assad’s Ba’ath Party
The Syrian parliamentary election is set to be held on 15 July with a victory for President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’ath Party-dominated National Progressive Front almost certain after years of electoral reform and vote rigging that favours the incumbent government. With no major political change forecast it is highly unlikely that there will be any positive steps towards peace in Syria, which has now experienced over 13 years of civil war.
Moderate Candidate Pezeshkian Wins Iranian Presidential Election
The reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian defeated his hardline opponent in the second round of the Iranian presidential elections. Pezeshkian was likely aided by an increase in voter turnout in the second round, although overall participation remains lower than in past elections.
It is unlikely that Pezeshkian will usher in fundamental reforms of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. However, the new moderate candidate has already sent signals of willingness to negotiate with the West, including by choosing advisors who already participated in the Rouhani government, which saw the establishment of the Nuclear Deal.
Moody’s Downgrades Kenya’s Debt Rating Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty
Moody’s Ratings has further downgraded Kenya’s debt rating after protests forced the Ruto administration to abandon its tax hikes. The reversal of tax rises has resulted in a major decrease in violent demonstrations and looting.
However, President Ruto has warned of huge consequences for not managing the country’s debt and has not ruled out additional cuts or tax rise moves that are likely to fuel further unrest whilst tensions remain high.
Adding to the ongoing uncertainty, on 11 July Ruto dismissed almost the entirety of his cabinet, likely in a last-ditch effort to improve public support.
Rwanda Prepares for Elections Amidst Criticism and Predictions of Kagame’s Fourth Term
General elections are to be held in Rwanda on 15 July to elect the president and members of the Chamber of Deputies. Incumbent president Paul Kagame will likely extend his 23-year presidency by securing a fourth term and the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) retain its majority in parliament.
Kagame has faced criticism for leading a repressive state accused of widespread human rights abuses and the suppression of political opposition, evidenced by nine candidates being denied the opportunity to campaign.
The election results will likely trigger nationwide unrest, which could turn deadly, as seen during a crush at an election rally in June that resulted in one death.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Trump May Decrease Intelligence Sharing with European NATO Members if Reelected
According to a senior NATO official and three European officials, speaking to journalists anonymously, Donald Trump is considering decreasing levels of intelligence sharing with European NATO members, should he win the US presidential election. Under Biden’s administration, intelligence sharing between the US and NATO allies has increased – the provision of US intelligence is considered to have been vital in countering Russia in Ukraine, as well as foiling their clandestine activities in other European countries, and some senior former intelligence figures have expressed grave concern at the impact diminished intelligence sharing will have on European security.
Trump has long-standing frustrations with NATO members not meeting the 2 per cent of GDP defence spending guideline, as well as advocating a more isolationist foreign policy in general. There are, however, valid concerns regarding the level of Russian penetration in various European NATO member-states, as well as the reliability of partners such as Turkey and Hungary.
Additionally, it is unlikely that such limits on intelligence sharing would apply to NATO partners such as the UK and Canada, who engage in advanced intelligence cooperation through separate intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes.
Belarus and China Launch Joint Military Drills Near Polish Border
Belarus and China started joint military drills on 10 July near the Polish border under what is being termed as “Exercise Attacking Falcon”. The exercise will last until 19 July and is almost certainly strategic messaging aimed at NATO, which is concurrently holding its 75th-anniversary summit. The exercise comes after Belarus joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), suggesting an increasing military collaboration between the two authoritarian regimes and reflecting broader efforts by Beijing and Moscow to promote a multi-polar global order.
Houthis Resume Red Sea Attack
The Houthis conducted at least four attacks in the Red Sea over two days on 9-10 July after a ten-day hiatus of attacks. The brief cessation of attacks was potentially linked to the departure of the Nimitz-class USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier, which likely allowed the militant group time to regroup. The Houthis have been using a layered attack of drones and missiles to bypass coalition air defence and maximise success rates.
Of note, the US military also claims to have destroyed five uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) on 12 July, perhaps indicating an increased reliance on this capability due to its low cost, civilian profile and smaller radar cross-section which makes it harder to detect.
Iraq Sentences Wife of IS Leader al-Baghdadi to Death for Crimes Against Yazidis
On 10 July, an Iraqi court sentenced to death one of the wives of former Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi for crimes against Yazidi women and girls captured and abused by the jihadist group. A court statement did not directly name the defendant but it is expected that she is Asma Mohammed, who was arrested in 2018 in Turkey and later extradited to Iraq. There is a realistic possibility that IS will conduct reprisal attacks against the Iraqi government in response to the ruling.
Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Army Abducts 100, Including Students, for Ransom
Reports emerging on 5 July indicate that at least 100 people, including students, were kidnapped the previous week in the Oromia region of Ethiopia. Gunmen stopped three buses approximately 120km north of the capital Addis Ababa, forcing the victims to exit the buses before being abducted.
The attackers have been identified as belonging to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) rebel group, which the UN has accused of targeted killings, property destruction and rape as part of their efforts to establish an independent Oromo state.
The abductions are likely part of a wider effort to obtain ransom to fund future operations against the Ethiopian government in the Oromo region, and if successful will likely inspire an increase in this tactic.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Wildfires in Attica, Greece Cause Evacuations and Property Damage
Wildfires broke out in Patras and Menidi, in the west of the Greek region of Attica, leading to evacuations and the destruction of at least one residential property and damage to a paediatric hospital. The fires reportedly started from uncleared plots of land, where flammable materials including dried wood and grass had accumulated.
Due to the currently hot and dry temperatures, fires tend to spread quickly and easily reignite even after being extinguished. While the current wildfire season in Greece has not yet reached the severity of last year’s, there is a realistic possibility of further episodes due to the prolonged extreme heat.
Burkina Faso Considers Criminalising Homosexuality, Stirring International Concerns
On 10 July, the Burkinabe military government reviewed a series of draft laws, including a proposal to criminalise homosexuality. Same-sex relations have been legal in Burkina Faso since its independence, with most former French colonies inheriting colonial penal codes that criminalised such acts. While this move is unlikely to face any significant domestic opposition from Burkina Faso’s conservative Muslim and Christian populations, it may provoke international backlash.
Cape Town Storms Destroy 1,000 Homes in Informal Settlements
Nearly 1,000 homes located in informal settlements of Cape Town, South Africa, have been destroyed following days of strong winds, caused by overlapping cold fronts, and the bursting of two riverbanks on 9 July.
A level 8 (out of 10) warning for disruptive rain was issued by local authorities for 10-11 July. The particularly severe impact of the storms is almost certainly linked to the lack of structural viability of many of the buildings in informal settlements, which, in Cape Town alone, house approximately 150,000 households.
Informal settlements, lacking proper drainage and sewage removal infrastructure, are especially at risk from waterborne diseases. Rain is set to continue for several days and authorities have warned of increased flooding, mudslides and rockfalls in the Cape Town, Drankenstein and Stellenbosch areas.
Asia–Pacific
Afghanistan: Afghan resistance increases attacks outside of its traditional operating areas.
Rebel fighters belonging to the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF) claimed to have conducted a series of attacks against the Taliban across Afghanistan during the reporting period. Multiple NRF attacks have occurred outside of the traditional areas of operations for the resistance group, including several attacks in western Afghanistan in the provinces of Nimroz, Farah and Herat. The NRF also carried out multiple attacks in Kabul, which has largely been considered a safe haven for the Taliban since its recapture in 2021.
Solace Global Assessment:
The NRF, also known as the Second Resistance, emerged in 2021 in response to the Taliban’s rapid takeover of much of Afghanistan. The NRF’s main stronghold is in the Panjshir Valley, located northeast of Kabul, where the Taliban have historically been unable to assert control but the group also has an established presence throughout northeast Afghanistan.
The NRF is comprised of vestiges from the Northern Alliance and several smaller groups which together pose the main organised resistance to the Taliban and include substantial elements from Afghanistan’s minority groups like the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. The NRF is largely non-extremist and is led by Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, who led resistance efforts against the Soviets and Taliban in the 1980s and 1990s.
After managing to survive the Taliban’s attempts to control the entirety of Afghanistan, the NRF was largely limited to operating in the provinces close to the Panjshir Valley and the predominantly Tajik regions of northeastern Afghanistan. Attacks against the Taliban typically increase during the spring and summer fighting season but recent attacks outside of their traditional stronghold may suggest an increase in the NRF’s freedom of movement and operational capabilities.
In recent months there has been a spate of attacks in Afghanistan’s western provinces but also dozens in Kabul, presenting a major challenge to the Taliban’s credibility. However, in most of these attacks, the NRF has not sought to directly engage with the Taliban due to their numerical superiority and abundance of advanced weapons seized after the US withdrawal. With no external support, the NRF attacks will likely limit their attacks to harassment operations.
Nevertheless, escalating attacks outside NRF strongholds, particularly in Kabul, will likely compel the Taliban to respond, which may ultimately be the NRF’s objective. The Taliban, whose rule is partially sustained through fear, would look weak for failing to respond. An escalation of fighting between the Taliban and NRF would likely yield several negative consequences.
Firstly, it would likely lead to more civilian casualties, displacement, economic hardship, curtail the freedom of aid agencies and result in the further degradation of an already severe humanitarian situation. Secondly, the Taliban have been the most effective force in containing the Islamic State’s most active branch, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has increasingly expanded its focus outside of Afghanistan.
ISKP would likely seek to exploit the overstretching of Taliban resources and the continued destabilisation of Afghanistan to expand its operations, recruit disaffected individuals, fuel propaganda campaigns and potentially even seize territory. In the long term, this could increase the threat from Afghanistan to neighbouring countries and further afield. The VEO has expanded its networks westward into Iran, Turkey and parts of Europe, pivoting from regional operations to focus on external attacks.
This shift has already been evidenced by the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow alongside a series of thwarted attacks in Western Europe.
Pakistan: Government authorises ISI to conduct widespread electronic surveillance.
On 10 July, Pakistani officials authorised the country’s main spy agency, the military-run Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to tap telephone calls and messages. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government has defended the move, stating that these new powers will only be used in criminal and terrorism investigations. Furthermore, the government has stressed that anyone abusing the law will face action and that the application of wiretapping will not infringe on people’s lives and privacy. However, numerous critics have lambasted the move, citing it as unconstitutional and an attack on civil liberties.
Solace Global Assessment:
Considering the significant influence of the Pakistani military in national politics, it is highly probable that extensive electronic surveillance was already in place, as indicated by past leaks of conversations involving Imran Khan and other members of his Tehreek-e-Insaf party.
However, the government’s formal recognition of these powers is likely to legitimise the practice and lead to greater abuse, likely resulting in increased electronic surveillance of the opposition and an expanded role for the military in politics.
Wiretapping could be exploited to justify the apprehension of the media, activists and opposition members, which in turn may incite civil unrest within the country, as seen during the arrest of Imran Khan.
For foreign entities operating in Pakistan, the decision will likely increase exposure to both direct and indirect electronic surveillance, potentially leading to heightened risks of corporate espionage and the compromise of sensitive information.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Pakistan Temporarily Halts Deportation of Afghan Refugees
Pakistan announced on 10 July that it is temporarily suspending the forced deportation of Afghan refugees, allowing almost 1.5 million Afghans to stay another year in Pakistan if they have proper documentation. The decision follows a recent visit by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) which, alongside many other international observers, has condemned Islamabad for its often-violent anti-migrant crackdown which started in 2023. The crackdown has sparked fears over human rights abuses and increased rates of radicalisation within the Afghan border, a trend that could increase the threat of terrorism on both sides of the border.
India Plans Hydropower Expansion in Arunachal Prades
Indian government sources have stated that Delhi is planning to build 12 hydropower stations in the state of Arunachal Pradesh, a northeastern Himalayan region that is partly claimed by China. The move has an obvious economic rationale: India’s production of hydroelectric power has stagnated over the last decade, and the state has a large energy-generation potential. Nevertheless, the move is also highly likely intended to increase India’s security and administrative footprint in the region and decrease the chances of Chinese encroachment. There is a realistic possibility of diplomatic tensions between Delhi and Beijing if the plans are carried out.
Thailand Approves 200 New Senators
Thailand’s Election Commission has approved 200 new senators to replace the military-appointed upper house, potentially complicating governance for the ruling Pheu Thai party. Although the new senate won’t vote on the prime minister, it retains the authority to vet laws and appoint key officials, reflecting a shift towards conservative-royalist interests and signalling continued political polarisation within Thailand.
South Korea Reverses Decision on Striking Doctors’ Licences
The South Korean government reversed its plans to retract the medical licences of striking junior doctors. More than 10,000 doctors are currently on strike due to government plans to boost medical school admissions. The move is likely an attempt at enticing the striking doctors to return to work, but it is unlikely that it will succeed, as it fails to address their fundamental grievances.
Fatal Shooting in New Caledonia Amidst Unrest Over Electoral Changes
On 10 July, French police in New Caledonia fatally shot an alleged gunman, bringing the death toll to 10 following nearly two months of unrest in the French Pacific territory. Protestors have continued to block roads, commit arson and loot after fears that changes to the electoral roll would reduce the chances of the indigenous Kanak people to secure independence. However, in the French parliamentary elections, indigenous Kanak Emmanuel Tjibaou became the first pro-independence candidate to win a seat in nearly four decades, a development that may help to quell unrest.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Political Leader Killed in Tamil Nadu Sparks Controversy
In the Tamil Nadu region of India, a state leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was killed by unknown assailants on 5 July. Early police reports claim that the killing was in retaliation for a crime-related dispute. BSP is a party advocating for the interests of Scheduled Castes – the disadvantaged groups that, combined, constitute India’s demographic majority. The party decided to run alone in the 2024 elections, and suffered a complete collapse, losing all of its seats. BSP activists have rejected the official version of events, and have instead alleged that the killing was a political act.
Balochistan Liberation Front Reports 108 Attacks in Occupied Balochistan
The Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) has released a report detailing its operations from January to June, highlighting 108 attacks across Pakistan-occupied Balochistan. The attacks targeted Pakistani forces, military installations, construction companies and a range of “collaborators”. The BLF has vowed to continue its fight for Balochistan’s liberation and is likely using the report as a propaganda tool to undermine Islamabad as well as to bolster its recruitment efforts.
Baloch Liberation Army Releases Video Showing Attacks in Occupied Balochistan
Another pro-Balochistan independence group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) released a 21-minute video on their official media channel, Hakkal, showcasing 25 attacks against the Pakistani Army and infrastructure in Pakinstan-occupied Balochistan. The video has likely been released to increase recruitment and also depicts attacks on gas pipelines and convoys transporting minerals extracted from within Balochistan and exported to the rest of Pakistan, a major grievance for the Baloch people. The video shows BLA militants with advanced US weaponry, likely indicating a relationship with the Afghan Taliban who acquired similar arms after the rushed US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Indian Security Forces Conduct Operations in Jammu and Kashmir
Indian security forces in the contested region of Jammu and Kashmir have been conducting search operations in the border areas near Pakistan following reports of suspicious movements. The operations follow a series of attacks on Indian security services within a 48-hour period which have killed several Indian soldiers and have largely been concentrated in the south of the region. Whilst the line-of-control between India and Pakistan has been successful at denying militants entry to the area, the redeployment of troops to the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh in the aftermath of the 2020 standoff with China has likely given militants more freedom of movement which they are now exploiting.
Myanmar Rebels Fund Offensives with Drug Trafficking Across Thai Border
Thai media reported on 8 July that Myanmar rebels are funding their offensive operations against the country’s junta by “flooding” the Thai border with narcotics. The Thai border force reported seized more than 151,000,000 amphetamine pills during this fiscal year, almost four times the amount of the previous year, and more than 1,300 kilogrammes of crystal meth. The increased flow of narcotics towards Thailand could damage the rebels’ hopes to gather further international support, to match their ongoing battlefield successes. In the short term, the increased volume of drug trafficking could destabilise the Myanmar-Thai border, and drive an increase in organised crime in Thailand.
South Korea Begins Mass Production of Low-Cost Laser Weapon to Counter Drones
On 11 July, South Korean officials announced that they would begin mass-producing a new low-cost laser weapon that has the potential to cheaply and reliably destroy small drones at short distances. The system, named Block-I, is the first of its kind to be officially mass-produced, although other countries, including the US and Israel, have developed equivalents. While unlikely to be practical or effective in combat between highly sophisticated contemporary conventional armed forces, laser systems likely have the highest potential in narrowing the cost differential when defending against low-sophistication drones and projectiles used by insurgencies and armed groups. Seoul also announced plans to develop a Block-II version, with greater power and reach.
Philippines and Japan Forge Military Alliance with Reciprocal Access Agreement
On July 8, the Philippines and Japan signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), allowing their armed forces to train and potentially operate together. This agreement, announced by Malacañang Palace, was witnessed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko and Defence.
Minister Kihara Minoru present. The RAA, similar to the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) but unique to the two countries, is likely aimed at enhancing military cooperation and enabling joint training and operations. The agreement comes amid rising tensions with China and represents Japan’s developing proactive security role in the Indo-Pacific, benefiting the Philippines’ security strategy. Japan has also announced that it is willing to deepen military ties with the United States and Australia under trilateral or quadrilateral security arrangements that may involve the Philippines, in a move that is almost certainly being designed to counter China.
Chinese Aircraft Carrier Sails Near Northern Philippines in Show of Force
On 10 July, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) responded to recent security developments made by the Philippines by sailing its Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier, the SHANDONG, close to the northern Philippines. The carrier was joined by dozens of PLAN warplanes and was almost certainly strategic messaging to Manila aimed at communicating that China has the firepower to enforce all its claims in the South China Sea.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Deadly Floods Strike Nepal
At least 14 people have been killed by floods in Nepal, caused by monsoon rains which have also affected neighbouring South Asian countries. The monsoon season runs from June to September, but protracted rains and particularly severe weather events have driven increasingly high fatality rates, with a realistic possibility of increasing severity being linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Japan Issues Heatstroke Alerts as Temperatures Soar to 40°C
Japan’s meteorological agency has issued heatstroke alerts for 26 prefectures, advising residents to stay indoors, use air conditioning, and stay hydrated as temperatures soared to 40 degrees Celsius in multiple areas, marking the start of a severe summer heatwave. The extreme heat poses significant risks, particularly to the elderly and young children, with numerous cases of heatstroke reported across the country and several heat-related deaths already registered.
Severe Monsoon Causes Record Rainfall and Fatalities in South Korea
An unusually severe monsoon season has caused record rainfall in parts of central, southern and eastern South Korea, leading to at least four deaths and causing landslides. North and South Chungcheong, North Gyeongsang and Jeonbuk have been particularly affected. Multiple central regional train services were suspended, and the bullet trains ran at reduced speeds in particular areas. Heavy rains are forecast to continue following a brief intermission, and the Interior Minister has asked people to avoid underground parking, underpasses and streams during periods of heavy rainfall.
Deadly Mudslide at Illegal Gold Mine in Indonesia
On 8 July, a mudslide caused by heavy rains killed at least 8 workers at an illegal gold mine in the Suwawa district of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. The incident was one of several taking place outside of the Indonesian rainy season (from November to February). It is highly likely that anthropogenic changes to the local environment, including the heavy deforestation of the country’s tropical forest, are contributing to making these episodes more frequent.
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Travel Risk Management for Paris Olympics 2024
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As the world turns its gaze to the Paris Olympics 2024, excitement builds for a summer of sport across the French capital. However, it also brings a complex array of security challenges and potential risks that should be closely monitored.
Heightened geopolitical tensions and terror threats are just two of the concerns, alongside the unexpected French elections, bringing a further likelihood of civil unrest in Paris during the games.
At a time when many global companies will look forward to hospitality and special events at the Paris Olympics, those in charge of corporate safety and security may be considering additional measures to ensure duty of care is met to protect their staff and guests.
While France is generally considered a Low-Medium risk country, assessing your intelligence sources and using travel risk management software can help ensure the safety and security of your team during their visit.
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Executive Summary
- Ongoing gang attacks on Haitian institutions are almost certainly aimed at complicating the situation of the UN-led mission, whose first contingent of Kenyan police was recently deployed.
- Hurricane Beryl, which caused widespread destruction in the Caribbean, is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season’s first hurricane, a season which is highly likely to be particularly severe.
- If confirmed, reports of the new Islamic State Caliph being the leader of its Somali branch almost certainly prove the increasingly central role played by Africa in IS governance and operations.
- The announced disbandment of Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia will highly likely lead to the emergence of splinter cells and the formation of new regional alliances.
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AMER
EMEA
APAC
Haiti: Gangs accelerate anti-police attacks after UN mission arrival
Caribbean Region: Hurricane Beryl causes widespread destruction
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: Putin considers arming the Houthis
Somalia: ISSP leader revealed as possible IS Caliph
Nigeria: Four coordinated suicide bombings in Boko Haram heartland
India: Stampede at “godman” event kills more than 120
Indonesia: Disbandment of major Islamist group announced
Global Dates and Events
- Al-Hijra, the Islamic New Year, will take place on 7 July. The holiday is officially recognised in different Muslim-majority nations and is informally celebrated in several other states. There is a possibility of limited traffic and business disruptions and closures on the day.
- On 9 July, adherents of the Baháʼí Faith commemorate the martyrdom of the Báb. The date is considered to be a holy day in the Baháʼí calendar, and will likely coincide with public commemorations in states that have a large Baháʼí minority, including Iran, India, the US, Canada, the UK, Brazil and Kenya.
- On 9-11 July the NATO Alliance will celebrate its 75th anniversary summit in Washington DC. The summit will likely address wide-ranging issues and have global implications as the US shifts its strategy more towards the Indo-Pacific and European powers are forced to bear more responsibility for their own continent.
North, Central and South America
Haiti: As Kenyan police begin operations, gangs intensify attacks on Haitian institutions.
So far, approximately 200 of the 1,000 police officers promised by Kenya to restore order in Haiti have arrived in the country. The force is part of a 2,500-strong UN-backed intervention mission, which is expected to be deployed in the coming months.
Gangs, which currently control much of Haiti and approximately 80 per cent of the capital Port-au-Prince, are assessed as numbering about 12,000 members in total. Following the deployment of the first Kenyan police, gangs reportedly intensified attacks on local police and government institutions. On 2 July, gang members reportedly attacked a police station in Port-au-Prince, killing more than 20 police officers.
Solace Global Assessment:
The gangs, who recently released statements calling Haitians to oppose the “imperialistic” UN intervention, almost certainly do not have any plan to transition the country out of its ongoing state of chaos. Rather, gangs almost certainly highly benefit from the breakdown of government, as it allows them to more freely operate within the country, and to benefit from international smuggling routes, including the influx of illegal firearms from the southeastern US.
Reports indicate that the “Viv Ansamn” coalition of gangs is currently the most influential in Haiti’s capital. However, there is a high likelihood that the network of gangs and criminal groups in Haiti remains highly disorganised and prone to infighting. Gangs are also highly armed due to the high presence of smuggled arms, and currently likely outgun the depleted Haitian police. Gangs will likely seek to undermine Kenyan efforts to secure control of residential areas by attacking the local population. While there is a realistic possibility of gangs opting for occasional “frontal attacks” against the UN-backed forces, the path of low-intensity operations to discourage civil society from collaborating with the police mission is more likely.
The Caribbean Region: Hurricane Beryl carves a path of destruction through the Caribbean.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season’s first hurricane entered the Caribbean Sea on 30 June, peaking at category five with maximum windspeeds of 269 kilometres per hour and causing at least ten deaths. Multiple countries were impacted, including Barbados, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG), Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Venezuela. Hurricane Beryl has now weakened to category two and is currently making landfall in Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula, prompting multiple alerts for tourist hotspots including Cancún and Tulum.
Solace Global Assessment:
Many Caribbean island nations are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes due to fragile architecture, poor infrastructure and limited state capacity, and approximately 2.8 million people were in the impact zone.
Beryl has already caused widespread property damage and flooding. SVG was especially affected, with widespread destruction reported on the southern Union Island and Canouan. Grenada also suffered a notably significant impact, and in Jamaica, roofs were ripped off and the airports were closed. While at least ten deaths have so far been reported, it is almost certain the death toll will increase as emergency responders access the affected areas. While Beryl has weakened to category two, the hurricane’s imminent landfall in Mexico through the Yucatan Peninsula still poses a high risk, prompting tourists to rush to Cancún International Airport despite mass flight cancellations. Beryl is the earliest category five hurricane of an Atlantic hurricane season on record, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has previously predicted that the 2024 season is highly likely to be particularly severe, due to extremely high sea temperatures, La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced wind shear and low Atlantic trade winds.
There is widespread consensus amongst climatologists that climate change is a major contributing factor to increasingly intense hurricane seasons, due to higher sea temperatures conditioning stronger hurricanes. The prime minister of SVG condemned Western Europe and the US for failing to tackle climate change and raised concerns about accessing aid. The 2024 hurricane season is highly likely to pose continued major challenges in Caribbean nations, exacerbated by their increased vulnerability.
Due to disruptions to law enforcement, the impact of property destruction and pre-existing problems with poverty, hurricanes can significantly increase crime rates in their immediate aftermath – it is likely, therefore, that the threat posed by crime will increase as a result of the hurricane in the impacted countries.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
On 1 July, the Cuban government announced new drastic economic measures to combat the country’s high fiscal deficit and inflation. Previous attempts by Havana to pass services, welfare and subsidy cuts, especially targeting fuel, resulted in unusually vocal protests. Likely for this reason, the new measures instead focus on fighting tax evasion, reforming state-run businesses, and favouring foreign exchange. Still, the prospect of renewed civil unrest following further government measures remains a realistic possibility.
Panama’s new President Jose Raul Mulino was sworn in on 1 July. Mulino ran on an anti-immigration platform, primarily directed at addressing the increasing migrant flows through the dangerous Darien Gap, where gangs and human traffickers operate. The president’s oath was followed almost immediately by the signature of a memorandum of understanding with Washington, focused on the Darien Gap issue. As part of the memorandum, the US will foot the bill for the repatriation of migrants from Panama to southern countries. There is a possibility that the prospect of economic returns will increasingly drive the securitisation of the border area, which may negatively affect not only the migrants themselves but also humanitarian organisations active in southern Panama.
The Venezuelan presidential campaign began on 4 July, with President Maduro aiming to retain power despite low approval ratings. Nationwide protests and highly charged political rallies are highly likely until the campaign period concludes on 25 July, with significant gatherings in Caracas and other major cities.
On 5 July, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was formally accused of embezzlement for allegedly misappropriating luxury gifts that he received from Saudi Arabian officials while he was head of state. This represents the second time Bolsonaro has been formally accused of a crime, the first dating back to March 2024 and being related to allegations of faked Covid records. There is a high likelihood that, if the accusation progresses and reaches the courts, it will drive civil unrest, with a realistic possibility of violence.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
On 1 July, a man opened fire and wounded seven of his neighbours in Crete, Nebraska. The man, who killed himself following the shooting, allegedly was a “recluse” and may have carried out the attack because of extremist ideology, as the seven victims are all Guatemalan migrants. If so, the attack represents a case of lone-actor terrorism and may have been motivated by recent media discourses on migration into the US, a topic that is particularly central to the presidential election season which may inspire similar attacks.
Colombia’s national government and the Second Marquetalia (FARC-SM), a faction of dissidents within the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), announced a unilateral ceasefire agreement on 29 June. In 2016, a peace deal was signed between FARC and Bogota, which although largely successful, led to the creation of several splinter groups such as FARC-SM who continued engaging in armed insurgency. FARC-SM reportedly has approximately 1000 members, and their commitments to release captives and de-escalate conflict will like reduce the threat of armed conflict. However, the Colombian government has yet to formally agree to a cessation of hostilities, with a meeting promised no later than July 20 to present a formal agreement that will then need to be implemented by Presidential Decree. Additionally, it is likely that small numbers of FARC-SM fighters will form splinter groups or join other dissident groups to continue fighting.
On 4 July, Ecuador’s police freed more than 40 hostages being held by the Los Lobos gang, active in the southern Azuay province. Gangs in Ecuador are highly armed and can often match the firepower of security forces. The recent operation likely testifies to the high level of internal organisation of the gangs, allowing them to simultaneously hold dozens of hostages, a prospect that will challenge President Noboa’s attempts to pursue the same path as President Bukele in El Salvador.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous.
A rapidly growing wildfire in north California has prompted the evacuation of at least 25,000 people in the vicinity of Sacramento. The region is particularly at risk from severe wildfires and, in July, the threat is exacerbated by hot and dry temperatures. Most wildfires are started by humans, and there is a high likelihood that the 4 July weekend will drive an increase in fires across the US, also due to the widespread use of fireworks in celebrations.
On 3 July in Colorado, a fourth case of bird flu resulting from the current outbreak amongst dairy cows was announced. The other cases were previously reported in Michigan and Texas. All the cases have involved dairy farm workers, who are susceptible due to their consistent close contact with infected cows. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has stated that there is currently only a low risk to the general public.
Authorities in Boyacá, Colombia have declared a state-wide health emergency over a dengue outbreak with over 1,000 cases recorded since the start of the year. Whilst dengue fever is a year-round nationwide threat in Colombia, projections for 2024 suggest that transmission rates have increased despite the release of genetically modified mosquitoes to curb the prevalence of the disease.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Israel, Palestine & Lebanon: Ceasefire deal progress, Khan Yunis operations, new West Bank settlements, and Hezbollah strikes.
During the last reporting period, Israeli and Hamas officials made progress regarding a long-discussed ceasefire plan for Gaza. On 4 July, Tel Aviv announced that it would send a delegation to Doha to negotiate with the Hamas leadership in Qatar. Despite moves towards a ceasefire, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have ordered a further series of evacuation zones in Khan Yunis, north of Rafah, in preparation for new ground operations. In the West Bank, the Israeli government approved three settlements, Givat Hanan, Machane Gadi, and Kedem Arava, and the construction of new homes, which a local NGO assessed as the largest land annexation of the kind “in 30 years”.
The announcement came amidst further reported attacks on West Bank Palestinians by Israeli settlers. On 3 July, the IDF carried out a successful decapitation strike that killed Muhammad Nimah Nasser, a senior official of the Iranian proxy group. In response, Hezbollah fired up to 200 rockets and 20 drones into northern Israel in one of its largest relatiations to date which caused minor damage and wildfires near the border.
Solace Global Assessment:
The progress recorded by Israeli authorities likely reflects a greater willingness on behalf of Hamas to negotiate the terms of the disengagement of IDF troops from areas of Gaza during the early stages of the hostage exchange process. Hamas and Israeli disagreements are likely focused on the question of the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt from which Hamas has access to a vital supply of material and weapons.
There is a realistic possibility that Tel Aviv will agree to some limited withdrawal from the border while retaining the ability to monitor border crossings. IDF forces have likely made significant progress in dismantling the network of tunnels used by Hamas operatives under the Philadelphi Corridor, and Israeli officials may assess that Hamas will remain incapable of building or repairing its underground infrastructure, thus being forced to rely on weaponry smuggled through the crossings themselves.
The evacuation orders for Khan Yunis almost certainly continue to highlight Hamas’s capacity to reinfiltrate areas previously cleared by the IDF. There is also a realistic possibility that much of the Hamas leadership left in Gaza will be in Khan Yunis or its proximity, having moved to the area during the IDF’s Rafah offensive. Finally, it is important to note in the context of negotiations that there may be a difference of opinions between the Hamas leadership in Qatar and that in Gaza. Moreover, the low profile that the Gaza leadership necessarily needs to take due to ongoing IDF operations will highly likely have isolated some Hamas units (or what is left of them) from the central command, possibly driving them to operate independently. Consequently, even if a ceasefire agreement is achieved, independent Hamas fighters or other Palestinian militias may continue to attack IDF forces, possibly hindering the hostage exchanges.
The developments in the West Bank also may reverberate in Gaza. Recent reports of settler violence being enabled or tacitly supported by IDF troops in the area may further spur Palestinian dissatisfaction with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The PA continues to verge on collapse due to long-standing economic issues and a lack of perceived legitimacy. The acceleration of the settlement-building process may further embolden anti-PA factions, especially ones affiliated with Hamas.
The Hamas Doha leadership likely sees an increase in power in the West Bank as a desirable strategic development and may seek – possibly through covert Iranian support – to accelerate instability there. At the Israel-Lebanon border, the wave of Hezbollah strikes almost certainly reflects the group’s desire not to lose face following a further successful Israeli decapitation strike but is still likely under the threshold of provoking all-out war. Israel’s ability to effectively detect and eliminate senior Hezbollah leaders is expected to severely impair the group’s operational capabilities and may ultimately provoke war. This development is likely a major concern for Tehran, as it seeks to avoid full-scale conflict with Israel to safeguard Hezbollah’s substantial rocket and drone arsenal, which serves as a crucial regional deterrent and tool for power projection for Iran.
Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden: Putin considers arming Houthis with maritime capabilities.
Uncorroborated reports citing an unnamed US intelligence official indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Saudi Arabia’s permission to arm Yemen’s Houthi Movement with anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). The discussions reportedly took place after Putin’s December visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Solace Global Assessment:
Russia maintains an open dialogue with the Houthi Movement and has strong relations with its primary backer, Iran. Moscow has also previously struck a deal with the Houthis to guarantee that Russian ships can safely transit the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden without being targeted by the group and abstained from voting in a UN Security Council resolution which condemned the militant group’s attacks on merchant shipping.
Furthermore, the Kremlin has set a precedent of arming anti-Western groups, with two major examples being the arming of Libyan rebels with advanced weaponry via the Wagner Group and accusations of arming the Taliban to fight coalition forces. Whilst Russia is in critical need of various types of weaponry for its war in Ukraine, it could easily divest itself of much of its ASCM capabilities as the Ukrainian Navy has no ships and is almost solely reliant on asymmetric capabilities such as uncrewed surface vessels (USVs).
Russia is also becoming heavily dependent on Iranian military aid and Tehran may leverage this to convince Moscow to help supply its Axis of Resistance against Israel- especially if a new front is opened against Hezbollah. Such a conflict may also bring Russia more into the fold if Washington directly supports Israel.
However, Russia is also courting rich Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE in its attempts to challenge US influence in the Middle East. Several Arab nations have previously been at war with the Shia Houthi Movement. They will likely protest this development, with unverified reports suggesting Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has already intervened. Should Russia pursue this course of action, it will likely involve the transfer of legacy weaponry such as the P-800 ONIKS (NATO: SS-N-26) or ASCM. However, these systems are still supersonic (Mach 2.5), have a range of 300km and have relatively advanced features such as electronic countermeasures and active radar homing. The cruise missile’s low trajectory makes them hard to detect and would provide air defence less time to react, increasing the threat to international shipping, especially at a time when the Houthis are also improving their USV capabilities.
For the Kremlin, the Houthis’ use of these systems could overstretch and potentially undermine coalition navies, divert resources from Ukraine and serve as payback to the West for supplying Kyiv. It would also impose a higher financial burden on the West, as Russian systems are invariably cheaper than the advanced air defences used by the West to intercept them.
Somalia: Islamic State Somalia Province leader possibly identified as Caliph.
Reports released during the reporting period indicate that the leader of the Islamic State’s Somalia Province (ISSP), known primarily as Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi or Abdulqadir Mumin has been identified as the overall leader or Caliph of the Islamic State (IS). Mumin is a Somali-born British citizen, who escaped to Somalia and declared allegiance to then-Caliph al-Baghdadi in 2015. The information, which is as of yet unconfirmed, was released on a channel of IS defectors. The ruling fifth Caliph of IS was reported by Turkish forces to have been killed in Syria in 2023, while US forces targeted Mumin in May 2024. However, this new information states that al-Qurashi is still alive and operating out of the Somalian breakaway region of Puntland.
Solace Global Assessment:
While the Somalia Province is much smaller compared to many of IS’ other provinces like Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) or Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), it has played a major role in the financial facilitation of IS operations. The al-Karrar office, in Puntland, which is almost certainly run by Mumin himself, was reportedly able to channel donations from South Africa and other Subsaharan states towards the provinces in the broader Middle East as early as 2020.
With decapitation strikes and territorial losses decreasing IS’ operational capabilities in the Levant in the late 2010s and early 2020s, funds from Subsaharan Africa likely played an important part in boosting ISSP’s importance within the broader IS network. The al-Karrar office has played a major role in the transfer of funds from Yemen to Afghanistan, enabling the most active branch, ISKP. ISSP has also likely been able to grow in significance with regional counterterrorism operations concentrating on its local rival, the al-Qaeda-aligned al-Shabaab.
There is also a growing concern that a stronger ISSP is forcing al-Shabaab to develop ties with the Houthis, with recent intelligence indicating the transfer of arms from Yemen to Somalia. While little information on Mumin exists, he is known as having played a fundamental role in radicalisation networks and networks seeking to entice foreigners, especially Britons, to travel to IS units in the Middle East. Given his European connections, Mumin’s appointment may also inspire IS to recalibrate its operations more towards European targets.
Russia is likely to be nominated as a prime target as its Africa Corps expands its counterterrorism operations in Africa, especially if Mumin holds considerable influence over ISKP which recently took credit for a major terror attack in Moscow. However, the credibility of Mumin’s appointment has yet to be assessed and this could be disinformation designed to deflect from the true Caliph, given the success rates against former IS leaders. All of IS’ former leaders have been Arab as well as the majority of its Delegated Committee. Many members will likely protest Mumin’s leadership which would represent a major political change, which may also account for Mumin’s nom de guerre, which includes the patronyms al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, claiming direct links to the Prophet Muhammed.
Nigeria: Coordinated suicide bombings kill dozens in Boko Haram heartland.
Four almost simultaneous suicide bombings were conducted in the Nigerian town of Borno state on 29 June. Government officials on 2 July released a statement indicating that the death toll had reached 32, with dozens more requiring hospitalisation. A wedding and a funeral were two of the locations targeted by the suicide bombers. All of the attacks included female suicide bombers, and the attack that targeted the wedding venue purportedly involved a suicide bomber carrying a baby on her back.
Solace Global Assessment:
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack but the jihadist group Boko Haram is known to operate in the area around Gwoza, a town they once declared the heart of their self-proclaimed caliphate. Furthermore, the use of female suicide bombers to attack mass gatherings is an established tactic of Boko Haram and one championed by their former leader Abubakar Shekau.
This tactic has been a source of friction between Boko Haram and its regional counterpart, the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) which has denounced this methodology. In addition, research conducted by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point indicated that Boko Haram has used females in at least 244 of its 434 suicide bombings between 2014-17. Boko Haram have likely employed this tactic to arouse less suspicion, avoid security searches, encourage more thorough searching of females (which in turn generates outrage), and because of the psychological impact it produces, especially when the bombers are accompanied by children. Furthermore, the group has been involved in multiple mass kidnappings of young females whom they have likely been able to indoctrinate in captivity to conduct suicide attacks.
Boko Haram was ousted from Gwoza in 2015 by a joint Nigerian and Chadian military offensive and has since been largely confined to attacks in rural areas. The organised and coordinated nature of the attacks may indicate a resurgence in the group’s capabilities. Junta governments have expelled Western military forces from countries where Boko Haram has historically operated, such as Niger and Mali and Nigeria’s domestic security is likely being overstretched by a host of issues ranging from kidnap gangs in the northwest to a revival of the Biafra movement in the southeast. These trends are potentially shaping the conditions which a resurgent Boko Haram could exploit to increase the frequency and scale of their attacks.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
The UK parliamentary elections were convincingly won by the centre-left Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer. The election results are unlikely to drive large-scale civil unrest in the United Kingdom, although there is a realistic possibility that left-wing minority groups, including environmentalist and pro-Palestine activists, will take advantage of the transition of power to stage symbolic demonstrations, possibly leading to minor and localised disruptions.
The first round of the French National Assembly elections was won by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), which finished ahead of a populist left-wing coalition and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble Party (EN). The results’ announcement drove almost immediate mass protests across France’s main urban centres, with reported cases of clashes between protesters and police. The centre and left candidates have agreed on an ad hoc cordon sanitaire strategy, meant to prevent RN candidates from being elected at the second round runoff vote.
So far, more than 200 third-place candidates from Ensemble and the left-wing coalition have withdrawn their candidacies to try centralising the anti-RN vote. The strategy has been effective before, most importantly twice barring Le Pen from winning the presidency, and there is a high likelihood that it will result in the RN not reaching its stated goal of an absolute parliamentary majority. Still, the positive results of the right are highly likely to continue driving civil unrest and possible political violence, likely posing a security threat during the Olympic Games, now only weeks away.
In the Netherlands, a new right-wing coalition government was installed after months of negotiations that followed the November 2023 general election. The government includes the far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, the conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the Christian-democratic New Social Contract (NSC), and the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), a populist, big tent group representing farmers’ interests. The government, which has a populist right-wing orientation, is led by independent bureaucrat Dick Schoof.
The ministry split, with BBB obtaining the agriculture and housing ministries, and the PVV securing control over immigration, foreign aid, security and justice. This almost certainly demonstrates that while unlikely to pass any major economic reform (the VVD remains solidly at the helm of economic and fiscal institutions), the new government will seek to pass wide-ranging social and travel reforms, which will likely have an important impact on Brussels. In reaction, protests took place at Huis ten Bosch Palace, The Hague on July 2, though these had low attendance, with further unrest likely in the coming weeks.
Turkish authorities have arrested almost 500 people in connection to anti-Syrian riots that resulted in multiple violent confrontations with the security services. The riots were ignited in response to accusations that a Syrian refugee had assaulted a Turkish child in the city of Kayseri in Central Anatolia. Riots and protests have spread to multiple Turkish cities including Ankara, Konya and Istanbul. The riots have instigated issues outside of Turkey’s border, with reports of deadly clashes between Turkish forces and protestors in northwest Syria and Syrian refugees were reportedly attacked by ethnic Turks on the streets of Berlin.
At least three people were killed in election protests after President Ghazouani was re-elected in Mauritania. The authorities used heavy-handed tactics, internet suspensions and mass detentions to suppress dissent in the town of Kaédi, an opposition stronghold near the Senegal border. The protests were motivated by accusations of electoral fraud, a factor that will likely concern the African Union with President Ghazouani currently holding the chairmanship of the regional bloc.
Turkey has initiated mediation talks between Somalia and Ethiopia regarding a port deal Ethiopia signed with the breakaway region of Somaliland earlier this year. The negotiations aim to repair diplomatic ties strained when Ethiopia agreed to lease 20 km of coastline from Somaliland in exchange for recognition of its independence, with Ankara likely attempting to increase its influence in Somalia where it has built schools, hospitals and other infrastructure and established a military base. The Horn of Africa has become increasingly important for Turkey because of its geographical position, maritime access, mineral wealth and potential for development. Because of this, Ankara has likely calculated that a war between Somalia and Ethiopia would be hugely deleterious to its objectives.
Thousands of Kenyans have continued to protest against the Ruto administration despite the overhauling of the controversial tax bill. Looting and violent clashes between protestors and the authorities have occurred in Nairobi, Mombassa and several smaller towns and cities across the country, leading to over 40 deaths and hundreds of arrests. Protestors are demanding the resignation of President Ruto and will likely sustain unrest until he either steps down or makes major concessions.
On 1 July, South Africa announced its new cabinet government, led by a coalition of parties involving the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA). The coalition government is unprecedented and follows ANC’s failure to win a majority of seats at the latest parliamentary election. The new right-liberal government is likely to reassure foreign investors in South Africa. However, the inclusion of DA, perceived by many as a quintessentially “white” party, will likely result in cases of civil unrest and possible inter-ethnic strife in the coming months. A significant driver of unrest is the government’s probable rejection of calls for sweeping land reform and expropriation, which are strongly favoured by the political left, including the Economic Freedom Fighters (EEF) which has historically been accused of inciting violence against white farmers.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Several US bases throughout Europe have been placed on high alert, or Force Protection Condition “Charlie”, in response to undisclosed intelligence relating to a planned terrorist attack, according to officials from the US European Command (EUCOM). The security shift likely indicates EUCOM has received information of an active and credible threat as it has not raised its alert level to Charlie for over a decade. The change coincides with high-profile events and dates such as the Euros in Germany, the Paris Olympics and the 4 July celebrations which will be celebrated by US service personnel throughout the continent. Terrorist actors may exploit these events and dates for publicity and may take advantage of a current overstretching of domestic security services.
On 1 July, the Financial Times released an interview with a senior UK Ministry of Defence official, Rob Johnson. Johnson assessed that the UK’s armed forces are currently unprepared for a “conflict of any scale”, citing large issues with weapons and ammunition procurement, as well as recruitment. The article, which was almost certainly aimed at reintroducing the issue of the armed forces in the political debate days before the elections, follows months of warnings about the state of the British military.
On 29 June, a security guard outside the Israeli embassy in Belgrade, Serbia, was shot with a crossbow. The guard, who survived, managed to kill the attacker, who early investigations allege was a radicalised Islamist extremist who had pledged allegiance to Islamic State. The attack is almost certainly a case of lone-actor terrorism linked with the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. While most lone-actor attacks do not follow specific events, this case may have been partly influenced by the Israeli ambassador’s statement, in April 2024, that Tel Aviv would not categorise the 1995 Srebrenica massacre as a genocide.
On 2 July, Kazakh government critic Aidos Sadykov died in Ukraine, only days after being shot by unidentified gunmen. There is a high likelihood that Sadykov’s killing was orchestrated by Kazakh intelligence, highlighting how the ongoing war in Ukraine may have created a more permissive environment with reduced security for third-party operations in the region.
On 5 July, the Turkish Interior Minister announced the detention of 45 suspects across 16 provinces linked to the Islamic State during BOZDOĞAN-48 counterterrorism operations. The operations also led to the seizure of large amounts of foreign currency, Turkish Lira and digital material. Turkish counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State frequently trigger reprisal attacks, with the group primarily targeting the security forces, places of worship and symbols of Western decadence.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has indicated that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad may be invited for an official visit, when speaking to journalists at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan on 5 July. While Ankara historically supported some rebel groups fighting against Assad in the Syrian Civil War, tensions between Turkey and Syria have eased in recent years. Erdogan likely is seeking to promote better relations with Assad to assist their current primary strategic objective in Syria, which is defeating the Kurdish separatist groups that have a foothold in northern Syria as well as neighbouring Iraq.
A jihadist attack on 3 July in central Mali near the town of Bandiagara killed over 20 civilians, likely suggesting that extremist groups are continuing to exploit a weak government and the retrograde of Western forces from the region. In addition, around 60 bodies have been discovered near Abeibara, in the Kidal region of northeast Mali close to the Algerian border. The victims, many of whom were found in mass graves, were largely civilians and are thought to have been killed in late June. It is suspected that the killings were conducted by Malian troops in cohort with the Russian “Africa Corps”, its rebranded Wagner Group. The incident may point to an increased trend of brutal tactics used to counter extremist groups, with the intimidation of civilians suspected of harbouring or assisting extremist groups being used to reduce militant groups’ freedom of movement and to disrupt their support networks.
The Tutsi-led and reportedly Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has captured two more strategic towns in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s North Kivu province, causing mass displacement and placing further pressure on the humanitarian situation. In addition, two employees of the UK-based NGO Tearfund were killed on 1 July after their convoy was attacked by gunmen likely belonging to the M23 group whilst operating in the North Kivu province. M23 has conducted mass executions and human rights abuses in the past and by targeting international aid workers the group may be attempting to decrease foreign access and oversight of their operations.
In a separate incident in the DRC, six Chinese nationals and at least two Congolese soldiers were killed on 4 July by suspected militants from the Development of the Congo (CODECO) militia group. The attack occurred at a mining site near Abombi, Djugu Territory, Ituri Province in the northeast of the country.
The largely ethnic Lendu CODECO group is notorious for its brutal tactics and has its roots in disputes over land and resources. The group has likely targeted Chinese nationals as it perceives China and the DRC government are exploiting resources that belong to the Lendu people, with its long-term strategy aimed at deterring international investment.
The Iranian presidential election runoff takes place on 5 July. The two remaining candidates to succeed President Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in mid-May, are Saeed Jalili and Massoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian, who represents the reformist front, obtained the most overall votes during the first round of the elections. However, Jalili is likely to win, as he was implicitly endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and as the reformist candidate is likely to be particularly damaged by the low voter turnout. The first round of the elections only had a 40 per cent turnout, the lowest in Iran’s post-1979 history and likely a demonstration of widespread dissatisfaction with the oppressive Shia regime.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Almost unprecedented temperatures of above 35 degrees Celsius were recorded in Moscow during the reporting period, caused by a severe heatwave that is affecting much of European Russia. There is a realistic possibility that the high temperatures will result in the outbreak of further wildfires. Due to Russia’s extensive forest cover and particularly carbon-rich soils, wildfires risk having an especially negative impact far beyond Russia’s borders, possibly accelerating the release of large volumes of CO2 into the atmosphere.
At least seven people have been killed and several remain missing after severe flooding caused by torrential rain that began on 30 June hit parts of southern Switzerland, southern France, and northern Italy. Further rain is forecasted in much of the region, increasing the risk of landslides, flash floods and falling trees which have already caused widespread transport disruption.
On 5 July, the Etna and Stromboli volcanoes, in Sicily, erupted, releasing large quantities of ash and leading to temporary closures of the airport in Catania. Italy has a large number of active volcanoes and eruptions are common, however, they do not always result in transport disruptions. The recent eruptions are unlikely to directly threaten the inhabited areas of Sicily, although there is a realistic possibility of further volcanic activity.
At least 1,000 acres of forest have been burned by ongoing wildfires on the Greek island of Zante. The fires are especially focused on the island’s mountainous areas and have not threatened residential areas as of the time of writing. Fires and extreme heat have been reported in other parts of the country, with hotels being evacuated in Kos and Chios, as well as fires developing on the outskirts of Athens. July is the hottest month of the year in Greece, and the summer of 2023 had extremely severe wildfires that were exacerbated by especially high temperatures. The current weather forecasts make a repeat of last year’s crisis a realistic possibility, with temperatures commonly exceeding 35 degrees Celsius.
Asia–Pacific
India: Deadly stampede causes more than a hundred deaths at religious event.
In Hathras, Uttar Pradesh state, at least 120 people died following a crowd crush that took place at a religious event hosted by a “godman”, known as Bhole Baba. According to early reports, about 250,000 people gathered at an event hosted at a venue that could accommodate less than 80,000. The stampede reportedly was caused by the attendees’ attempts at collecting soil on which the godman and his entourage had treaded upon exiting the venue. Notably, at least 110 of the casualties were women
Solace Global Assessment:
Godmen and other gurus are not a new phenomenon in India or the broader Indian subcontinent. Popular gurus play an important role in local and national politics. Candidates from religiously-affiliated parties, such as the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have formally or informally endorsed local preachers, likely in efforts to bolster appeal with local communities.
Observers have remarked that the popularity of religious personalities likely has economic, class- and caste-based implications, with many faithful often coming from disadvantaged groups. In many cases, the attendees at these events hope to gain material riches from touching or interacting with the godmen. However, this creates risks to attendees. Improvised, ad hoc religious events are often held in areas and venues with insufficient capacity or few safety features and are likely to attract more attendees through social media. Stampedes are common as the attendees try to approach the godmen, with little regard for others in the crowd.
Travellers who are not familiar with these events may be tempted to approach large impromptu gatherings. However, the risk of becoming involved in a stampede is high. Albeit much less impactful and influential, it is important to note that charismatic preachers are not solely popular in Hindu contexts. Pakistani Muslim communities also have a history of preachers drawing a considerable number of followers by espousing various religious messages. A contemporary example is a preacher and blogger known as “Muhammad Qasim” who, in addition to sharing visions of God and Prophet Mohammed, blends apocalyptic and millenarist messaging with endorsements of former Prime Minister Imran Khan which has enabled him to draw large crowds.
Indonesia: Senior leaders of Jemaah Islamiyah announce disbandment of the Southeast Asian jihadist group.
On 30 June, 16 senior leaders of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) released a video statement from Bogor, Indonesia, announcing that the transnational jihadist militant network based in Southeast Asia would be dissolved. The statement also declared commitment to the Republic of Indonesia and the changing of teachings in JI-run schools to orthodox Islam.
Solace Global Assessment:
JI is a major terrorist group in Southeast Asia with established links to al-Qaeda, that is known to operate in Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Philippines, Singapore, Brunei and southern Thailand. In 2021, Indonesian security forces estimated that JI had approximately 6000 active members in Indonesia alone.
The group are most infamous for having conducted the 2002 Bali bombings, which killed over 200 people, mostly foreign tourists. However, this attack was reportedly carried out without the support of JI’s leadership. The group are also suspected to have conducted several other notable attacks targeting foreign nationals between 2002-2005. While historically significant and still a prominent force, the group has had a gradually declining influence in Southeast Asia.
The announcement is likely driven by a combination of factors. Firstly, JI runs many religious schools, a key asset, and aims to shield them from government suppression. Secondly, JI’s leadership may be seeking political legitimacy by aligning with the Indonesian Republic, akin to the Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy in the Middle East and North Africa. Thirdly, Indonesian counterterrorism efforts, led by Detachment 88, have successfully foiled plots, arrested senior members, implemented deradicalisation programs, and engaged with JI-aligned intellectuals, putting significant pressure on JI’s leadership.
The decision is highly likely to have implications in both Indonesia and wider Southeast Asia, where the group has also historically operated. In the short term, the announcement will likely enable greater success for JI-affiliated schools and it is a realistic possibility that the leaders will, to varying degrees, enter public life. While the leaders who made the statement are assessed to have considerable credibility within the organisation, active splinter groups are highly likely to emerge.
These splinter groups may seek to publicly assert themselves and gain legitimacy amongst jihadists by conducting terrorist attacks. They may have a much greater disposition towards terrorism, supported by the 2002 Bali bombings being conducted by more extreme JI members without the approval of senior leadership. Dissidents may also seek closer relations and affiliation with more extreme jihadist groups, namely the Islamic State (IS) who already have an established presence in Indonesia through affiliate groups such as Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD). Considering the historical modus operandi of JI terror attacks, as well as the prevalence of Westerners in heavily touristed areas of Indonesia, high-value targets for terror attacks will likely include major tourist resorts, premium hotels and buildings associated with Western governments such as embassies and consulates.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Residents of Karachi staged protests on 1 July over prolonged load-shedding-driven losses of power in the city’s old town. Pakistan suffers from obsolescent and poorly maintained infrastructure, and the high temperatures currently being recorded in the country have exacerbated difficulties in delivering consistent power to densely populated communities. More than 1,000 deaths were reported in Karachi over the past week due to heatstroke, and recent reports signal that most took place in areas where load-shedding was underway, possibly due to the disruption to domestic and public air conditioning, and delays in the reporting and managing of health emergencies.
In Astana, Kazakhstan on 04 July, during the final day of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, Russian and Chinese presidents, Vladamir Putin and Xi Jinping called for the establishment of a new Eurasian security club. This reflects the increasingly close ties and strategic visions of Moscow and Beijing, who both desire a multipolar world order to counter perceived US and NATO hegemony. The proposal remains in its early stages, and although it is unlikely to be implemented imminently, the deal could result in substantial shifts in the geopolitical landscape. Moscow and Beijing are also likely seeking to expand their power in their respective Eurasian spheres of influence; the newly proposed security pact could be a vehicle to enable these goals. However, given Russia’s and China’s historic rivalries and areas of future competition, an alliance that emulates the same levels of inter-operability as NATO is highly unlikely.
Ten Cambodian environmentalist activists were jailed for “plotting” against the government and for “insulting the king”, and sentenced to up to eight years in prison. The activists had previously reported on the mismanagement of the country’s natural resources by leaders, including the monarchy. The case is highly likely similar to others that occurred in Thailand, where lese majeste laws are often used as a pretext to silence opposition voices from outside of the political establishment.
Over 800,000 people have signed an online petition calling for the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. The number of people attempting to sign the petition was so great that significant issues with accessing the National Assembly’s website arose. The president is deeply unpopular, and the petition’s extensive engagement is reflective of this widespread dissatisfaction. While civil unrest in South Korea is generally peaceful, it is highly likely that protests against the president will continue, in tandem with the ongoing doctors’ strike which has caused disruptions to medical treatment since February 2024.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Despite often tense relations, the Pakistani and US infantry have begun a two-week joint anti-terror exercise at the National Counter-Terrorism Centre in Pabbi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The exercise aims to share counter-terrorism experiences, refine drill procedures, and enhance marksmanship skills during urban warfare and is likely being conducted to help Pakistan counter the rise of ISKP in western Pakistan.
Also in Pakistan, Baluch leaders associated with the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have accused China of being politically responsible for the ongoing Azm-e-Istehkam counterterrorism operations, targeting BLA and Pakistani Taliban (TTP) militants. The BLA has sought to target Chinese interests, nationals, and physical assets in Pakistan, likely with the strategic aim of undermining Islamabad and discouraging foreign investment. Perceptions of growing Chinese influence on Pakistani authorities’ security policy may become a driver of further attacks, and will likely result in China becoming a more frequent target for extremist propaganda in the region.
A senior Australian diplomat has indicated that adding partners to the AUKUS defence pact would be “complicated”, a development that will almost certainly be welcomed by China. The 2021 agreement was established to counterbalance China’s power and maritime capability. The collective security arrangement involves Australia’s acquisition of sensitive nuclear-submarine technology and it is unlikely that Washington will sanction the further circulation of these capabilities.
On 2 July, police in Sydney Australia arrested a 14-year-old boy after a stabbing at the University of Sydney, which resulted in a lockdown of the university’s buildings. To boy’s ideology or motivation has yet to be determined, however, New South Wales police have expressed concerns over increased rates of young people being radicalised online. The incident also follows the recent stabbing of a bishop in Sydney by a teenage assailant and a mass stabbing attack at a Bondi area shopping mall.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
On 1 July, Indian authorities announced that the New Delhi domestic flights airport terminal is scheduled to remain closed for a “few weeks”, after a portion of the terminal roof collapsed on 29 June, killing one and destroying numerous vehicles. The collapse followed heavy rains and resulted in limited closures of the Indira Gandhi International Airport. The accident is likely to result in localised travel disruptions and may have a limited adverse political impact on the ruling Modi government.
Thousands of people have been trapped in their homes in Kachin and Sagaing provinces in northern Myanmar after major flooding caused by several rivers overflowing, with further rain forecasted. Rescue and humanitarian efforts will almost certainly be stretched by the ongoing civil war, with the central government highly unlikely to provide any support in rebel-held areas.
The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued an alert for heat-related illnesses as a heatwave is set to affect much of eastern and western Japan, with dozens of people already hospitalised. The agency has warned that temperatures may hit a record 39.3 degrees Celcius in Shizuoka City, with temperatures in Tokyo already exceeding 35 degrees Celcius. The extreme heat is forecasted to last until mid-July.
On 5 July, a tornado in Dongming County, Shandong Province in northeast China has resulted in at least one death, dozens of injuries and extensive property damage. Tornadoes are rare in this area but may become more frequent due to the altering of atmospheric conditions caused by climate change. Moreover, buildings are likely to be unprepared for tornadoes and there is a lack of shelters, factors that will increase pressure on the authorities.
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Executive Summary
- The final approval of Argentine President Milei’s “bases bill” is likely the first major victory for the libertarian president, and will highly likely lead to further sweeping economic reforms.
- The recent ISCP attack in Russia’s Dagestan region likely shows severe vulnerabilities of Russian intelligence, and almost certainly demonstrates growing Islamist efforts to destabilise the region.
- The Houthis’ claimed acquisition of hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile capabilities will almost certainly improve the militant group’s targeting success in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- In Kenya, widespread and violent civil unrest provoked by a controversial finance bill will likely continue despite the bill’s revocation with protestors demanding the president’s resignation.
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AMER
EMEA
APAC
US: Homeland Security report 400 illegal migrants are linked to IS
Bolivia: Failed coup attempt in La Paz
Argentina: Milei bill passed in parliament as recession begins
Russia: Islamic State targets Dagestan
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: Tensions at north border grow
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: Houthi claim hypersonic capabilities
Kenya: Protesters set fire to parliament in response to fiscal bill
Pakistan: Hundreds of people dead due to severe heatwave
India: Inter-religious tensions continue with Mosque demolitions
Global Dates and Events
Several elections are scheduled to take place over the coming week (28 June – 5 July):
- Iran (Presidential) – 28 June
- Mongolia (Parliament) – 28 June
- Mauritania (Presidential) – 29 June
- France (National Assembly, 1st round)- 30 June
- United Kingdom (Parliament) – 4 July
North, Central and South America
United States: Homeland Security assesses 400 illegal migrants smuggled into the US have Islamic State links
An investigation conducted by the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) indicates that as many as 400 migrants who illegally entered the country in the last four years were enabled by a human smuggling network reportedly connected to the Islamic State (IS). The investigation has prompted an additional review of the identified individuals.
The report suggests that the primary objective of the network was to smuggle in people, and not to facilitate the entry of terrorists into the US. However, the smuggling network is assessed to have direct links to another network with established ties to the trans-regional violent extremist (VEO) group that expedited the entry of a group of Uzbek nationals.
The 400 migrants that will require further investigation are mostly from Central Asian nations, and the report has been released after an operation in early June by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) which arrested eight Tajik nationals with alleged ties to IS.
Solace Global Assessment:
Reports of IS-linked groups smuggling migrants into the US will likely be used during the current presidential campaign to undermine President Biden’s record on border security and immigration. On 26 June, House Committee on Homeland Security Chairman Mark E. Green released a statement suggesting that there is no one the Biden administration won’t allow into the country. The Republicans will likely exploit the timing of this report for political gain, with polls indicating most Americans trust Trump over Biden regarding border security and immigration.
The investigation has already resulted in the apprehension of over 150 migrants, but the whereabouts of at least 50 remain unknown, a development likely to evoke fear in the US. Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that the Central Asian migrants are planning on conducting attacks within the US, and the vast majority are likely economic migrants with no real connections to terrorism. The most likely threat posed by the operation is that it is being used by members of the Islamic State’s Khorasan Province (ISKP) to generate money, which is then used to fund ISKP activity.
The ISKP is primarily based in Afghanistan, but its senior leadership is predominantly Tajik and is successfully recruiting Central Asians. Likely, elements of ISKP within Central Asia will also target the families of the smuggled individuals to extort a portion of their remittance payments. There is also a realistic possibility that some of the 400 are vulnerable to radicalisation after entry to the US and potentially susceptible to IS propaganda if struggling with isolation or economic hardship. However, the lack of current evidence regarding planned attacks is unlikely to blunt concerns in the US.
The report was released shortly after a resurgence in ISKP activity, characterised by an increase in external attacks in places like Russia, Iran, and Pakistan. Long-term, ISKP is likely to exploit funds through smuggling to consolidate its power within Afghanistan and increasingly so in neighboring countries like Pakistan, Tajikistan, and other Central Asian countries. This is likely to put it in a stronger position to conduct future external operations, which will likely include coveted Western targets and interests, with the group using the remote, mountainous, and destabilised parts of Afghanistan and Central Asia in a similar manner to how the Taliban did prior to 9/11.
Whilst this revenue stream will only play a minor part in ISKP’s financial operations, the fact that the US’ weak southern border is being exploited to fund its enemies’ activities is likely to be highly contentious and exacerbate political tensions during an already heightened time in the US.
Bolivia: Short-lived attempted coup neutralised after troops try to storm presidential palace
On the afternoon of 26 June, the commander of the Bolivian Army, General Juan José Zúñiga, led an attempted coup d’état against leftist President Luis Arce. Hundreds of soldiers, equipped with armored vehicles, moved into Plaza Murillo in central La Paz, Bolivia’s capital. They then attempted to storm Casa Grande del Pueblo, the presidential palace, with an armored vehicle, reportedly slamming into the palace doors. Zúñiga publicly called for a restructuring of democracy and a change of government.
In the days prior, Arce had relieved Zúñiga of his post following threats allegedly made by Zúñiga to arrest former President Evo Morales should Morales run for president again in 2025. Arce personally confronted Zúñiga at the presidential palace, and Zúñiga was arrested shortly afterward. Along with Zúñiga, Vice-Admiral Juan Arnez Salvador, head of the navy, has also been arrested.
The attempted coup only lasted a few hours and was condemned by regional leaders in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Chile, Venezuela, and the Organization of American States (OAS). The US, UK, and the European Union’s foreign policy chief also condemned the attempted coup. Zúñiga reportedly urged his troops to withdraw after it became clear the coup had failed, and newly appointed Army commander, José Wilson Sánchez, ordered soldiers to return to their barracks.
Solace Global Assessment:
Zúñiga cited dismay with Bolivia’s endemic issues as his motivation for the coup. However, it is likely that personal motivations served as the primary catalyst for the coup due to his recent dismissal by Arce. Alternatively, another key trigger may have been large-scale protests that have recently gripped La Paz due to growing economic insecurity.
Arce is presiding over a challenging period for Bolivia, with a financial crisis crippling currency reserves amid low gas exports and nationwide fuel shortages. In March, approval ratings for Arce were reported to be as low as 38 percent. There has been discontent from across the political spectrum. From the right-wing, there has been longstanding severe dissatisfaction with the far-left Movement for Socialism’s (MAS) return to power under Arce in 2020, after former president Morales’ removal from power in 2019. The right-wing former interim President Jeanine Anez, however, condemned the coup. A major contributing factor to the military coup’s failure was highly likely to be a lack of support from the political right.
From the left wing, there has also been considerable discontent and divisions arising within MAS. Morales has stated his intent to stand in Bolivia’s 2025 election, ousting Arce. It was Zúñiga’s threats against Morales in anticipation of this that reportedly sparked the general’s initial dismissal.
While very short-lived, the failed coup reveals the continued threat posed by the military and exposes fundamental weaknesses in Bolivia’s democratic system. Arce is likely to receive a boost in his ratings amid almost universal international condemnation of the coup. However, there has been speculation that the coup was actually organised by the government themselves to galvanise such support in the face of a political crisis. While the veracity of such claims is unclear, these claims are likely to be believed by a significant proportion of Bolivia’s anti-Arce groups.
The threat posed by civil unrest in Bolivia is likely to increase in the short-to-medium term, with disgruntled right-wing groups lamenting the coup’s failure and leftists being called to march in solidarity with the government. However, the coup’s critical failure is likely to bolster the government’s grip on power, although this is unlikely to persist in the medium to long term as Bolivia’s economic poor performance is almost certain to continue.
Argentina: President Milei’s austerity measures approved by parliament.
Argentina’s parliament, the National Congress of Argentina, has approved President Milei’s economic reform package after months of debate and revisions to the bill within the country’s upper and lower houses. Milei described his first real major legislative victory as the “greatest fiscal adjustment” in Argentine history and has castigated the opposition for delaying the bill.
Solace Global Assessment:
This legislative victory essentially provides President Milei with the tools he has demanded for months to reform the Argentine economy. The legislation will enable him to introduce a raft of controversial right-wing policies aimed at incentivising investment, privatising state-owned entities, restructuring taxes, and cutting away at Argentina’s large public sector. Milei’s policies to date have helped reduce Argentina’s inflation and have brought about the country’s first fiscal surplus in years. However, they also have incited widespread civil unrest and resulted in many job losses.
Recent reporting indicates that Argentina has officially entered a technical recession in the first quarter of 2024, with GDP shrinking 2.6 percent from the previous quarter, marking the second consecutive contraction. Under Milei, the jobless rate has risen to 7.7 percent, resulting in 300,000 more unemployed people, and many services and goods have spiked in price. Spending cuts have halted infrastructure projects, causing significant job losses in construction, while triple-digit inflation and the recession have severely impacted consumers. Despite achieving a fiscal surplus that boosted markets, poverty and homelessness have increased, though Milei insists these measures are necessary as part of his long-term recovery plan.
However, the announcement of a technical recession will likely be interpreted as a failure of Milei’s austerity measures, and his impending implementation of further measures following his victory in parliament will almost certainly be a catalyst for further civil unrest.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
The first US presidential debate was held on 27 June in Georgia, a key battleground state for the 2024 election. Observers have stated that, although Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump’s performance was marked by numerous false statements, incumbent President Biden almost certainly “lost”. In particular, Biden repeatedly seemed to lose his train of thought and gave somewhat incoherent responses to otherwise straightforward questions.
Some Democrat Party politicians informally raised the possibility of asking Biden to step down in favor of an alternative candidate before the party’s national convention. This remains a remote possibility, as replacing Biden would be incredibly challenging due to party rules and would likely result in a Trump victory. Still, it is highly likely that the debate largely improved the controversial former president’s chances.
The Honduran ex-President Juan Orlando Hernández was sentenced to 45 years in prison on 26 June. He was found guilty of accepting millions of dollars in bribes to protect US-bound cocaine shipments belonging to traffickers. The case likely illustrates the extent of corruption present in Honduras as individuals in government use their position of power for personal gain, neglecting the interest of citizens.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
On 25 June, the first contingent of Kenyan police, numbering 400, arrived in Haiti following repeated delays. Much of the country is still under gang control, with rival groups increasingly targeting institutions likely in the hope of reducing officials’ ability to restore order to the country. The Kenyan mission, whose stability is already likely compromised by the severe protests currently taking place in Nairobi, will almost certainly face extreme logistical difficulties in its attempts to re-establish order in Port-au-Prince and the rest of Haiti.
There is a high likelihood that the UN-backed force’s first task will be securing key locations in the capital, allowing for a safer environment for the carrying out of humanitarian and governance operations. However, there is a high likelihood of retaliation from the well-armed gangs, many of which have decried foreign intervention as a fundamental threat to their interests.
Authorities in Colombia have started talks with a third guerrilla group that broke away from a 2016 ceasefire deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People’s Army (FARC). The Segunda Marquetalia faction, which reportedly has around 1,600 members, launched a new rebellion in 2019 and has yet to subscribe to President Petro’s “total peace” plan.
Successfully signing a peace deal would help stabilise the country, reduce violence, and improve national security. However, Petro has had mixed success with other groups like the National Liberation Army (ELN), and there are fears that rebel groups are using ceasefires to expand their influence, appropriate more territory, and recruit more members.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Research studying the 2023 wildfires that affected much of Canada revealed that the fires resulted in the release of 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), equivalent to the total emissions of the global airline industry for 2022. The 2023 fires were among the most severe ever recorded, with Canada alone accounting for more than a quarter of global tree cover loss over the year.
As the warmest months of the year begin, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) office warned of a “high probability” of above-average temperatures in July and August. Warm and dry conditions are especially conducive to exacerbating the severity of wildfires, highlighting ongoing concerns about climate impacts and the potential for further environmental and atmospheric consequences.
In Mexico City, thousands of citizens have been forced to evacuate their homes as storms and heavy rainfall continue. As of 21 June, the death toll had reached 30, including six children. Warnings have been issued for wind speeds up to 70 kilometers per hour and waves up to 3 meters around the Gulf and Caribbean coasts.
These extreme weather patterns are attributed to Storm Alberto, which has caused significant economic losses for Mexico due to widespread damage to infrastructure and the displacement of thousands of citizens.
28 June an earthquake of magnitude of 7.0 struck near the coast in southern Peru’s Arequipa region. No deaths have been reported, but eight people have been injured. Arequipa has been hit with four aftershocks of 4 to 4.6 magnitude, creating landslides on local roads. There’s the potential for further damage which will add additional pressure on the region’s infrastructure and the need for emergency response efforts.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Russia: Dagestan terrorist attack spotlights growing Islamist threat in Russia.
On 23 June, six gunmen from the Islamic State Caucasus Province (ISCP) carried out a series of attacks in the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala in Dagestan. The attacks resulted in the deaths of at least 22 people, with more than 40 wounded, and significant damage to two synagogues and two churches. These incidents follow a rise in Islamist terror activities in the region and across Russia.
In late October, anti-Semitic riots occurred in Dagestan, including in the same cities targeted by ISCP. In March, the IS’ Khorasan branch (ISKP) carried out a deadly attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, killing 145 people. More recently, supporters of the Islamic State staged a prison uprising in Rostov. Additionally, reports indicate that cooperation between Russia and Turkey led to the dismantling of an IS cell that was planning further attacks in Moscow.
These events underscore ongoing security challenges posed by Islamist extremist groups in Russia and the broader Caucasus region, prompting heightened vigilance and counterterrorism efforts by authorities.
Solace Global Assessment:
The various branches of the Islamic State (IS) have likely identified the ongoing war in Ukraine as an opportunity to destabilise the Russian state. Russia’s internal security is primarily managed by the Russian National Guard, but many of its forces have been redeployed to occupied parts of Ukraine, border security, and protecting the Kremlin post-Wagner rebellion, leaving other areas of Russia less secure.
Russia’s extensive counterterrorism efforts in Syria, the broader Middle East, and through its Africa Corps in the Sahel have likely strained its security and intelligence capabilities, making Moscow a desirable target for Islamist violent extremist organisations (VEOs). Recent improvements in Russia’s relations with the Afghan Taliban regime, potentially nearing full diplomatic recognition, may further embolden groups like the IS Khorasan Province (ISKP) and IS Caucasus Province (ISCP) to target Russian civilians and assets.
The Caucasus region, with its history of Russian domination and conflicts such as the Chechen wars, coupled with economic stagnation and lack of socioeconomic progress, provides fertile ground for Islamist sentiments. The resurgent IS has found receptive audiences for recruitment in former Soviet republics, particularly Tajikistan, where local governments are viewed as oppressive toward Islam, echoing similar grievances in Chechnya and Dagestan.
The involvement of family members of a local government official in the attacks underscores the penetration of extremist ideologies among educated youth, possibly indicating growing social acceptance of violent forms of Salafi Islam among elites. The Russian government’s relatively muted response following the attacks, compared to previous incidents like the Crocus City Hall attack, reflects Moscow’s concern over public perception of its ability to prevent Islamist violence. The implication of a local government official in the attack adds to Kremlin embarrassment.
While some officials have attempted to shift blame for the attacks onto Ukraine or the West, claiming stable interfaith relations within Russia, tensions likely persist. Anti-Islamic sentiment in European Russia contrasts with growing sympathy for Islamist causes in the Caucasus, potentially fueling further disorder.
The aftermath of these attacks may embolden Christian Orthodox nationalists to perpetrate mob violence against Muslim communities in Russia and increase the likelihood of further lone-wolf attacks by radicalised individuals, particularly in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Israel, Palestine and Lebanon: Fears of escalation continue, as Tel Aviv masses troops on northern borders.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his administration have remarked that the phase of most intense fighting in the ongoing war in Gaza is approaching its end, and have increasingly shifted attention to the Israeli northern border, where Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah continue to trade a growing volume of tit-for-tat airstrikes. Most notably, on 21 June IDF airstrikes targeted a compound belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran located in al-Bukamal, Syria. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant recently threatened to send Lebanon “back to the stone age”. The approval of a controversial draft bill, which allows for the state to force Orthodox Haredi Jews into partaking in a period of mandatory military service, has simultaneously resulted in demonstrations and growing discontent with the Netanyahu government.
Solace Global Assessment:
An Israeli offensive into Lebanon would most likely be extremely costly for Tel Aviv. Hezbollah is comparatively much better equipped than Hamas and has access to more solid positions, as well as clear support and logistics lifelines via its “Axis of Resistance” allies through Iraq and Syria. Despite this, the plan is viewed favourably by the more hawkish figures in the Netanyahu administration, which likely consider the continuation of a Hezbollah conventional threat at the border as an unacceptable long-term security vulnerability.
On the Axis of Resistance side, there likely is not a clear consensus on the possibility and desirability of a conflict with Israel. An outbreak of open conflict between the IDF and Hezbollah will likely be used by other Iranian proxies, such as the various Iraqi militias, to widen the conflict and target US assets in neighbouring countries, such as Jordan, with a broader aim of destabilising the region.
However, Tehran likely perceives this as risky, both due to the risk of the rise of Sunni insurgent groups, and due to that of rapidly worsening already tense relations with regional powers. Tel Aviv’s statement that the IDF has defeated the remaining Rafah battalion, and will therefore move to a stage of occasional raids and “management” of Hamas is highly likely premature. The Palestinian militant group likely still retains an ability to recruit new fighters, and manufacture or acquire weapons to replenish its arsenals, and will almost certainly continue carrying out re-infiltration operations in areas cleared by the IDF.
While it is unlikely that these actions will result in anything more than a manageable level of attrition for the IDF, the continuation of IDF deployments in Gaza is likely to become increasingly costly for Tel Aviv. Moreover, the Hamas leadership in Gaza continues to evade Israeli intelligence, and its survival is almost certainly politically unacceptable for Netanyahu, who has indicated the destruction of Hamas as his key objective of the war.
In the West Bank, Axis of Resistance groups are highly likely continuing their attempts to smuggle weapons to Hamas fighters and other Palestinian groups in the area with the intention of opening an additional front – a development that will become increasingly important if a confrontation in the north breaks out.
Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden: Houthi Movement claims to have developed hypersonic ballistic missiles.
On 24 June, the Houthi Movement claimed to have used a “new” ballistic missile to carry out a direct hit on the Liberian-flagged vessel MSC SARAH V in the Arabian Sea, which it claims is linked to Israel. The vessel was targeted whilst heading to port at Abu Dhabi at approximately 04.45 hours UTC about 450 kilometres (246 nautical miles) southeast of Nishum, a Yemeni town near the Oman border.
The vessel’s operators claim that it was not hit by the missile but landed just 50m off the starboard side of the ship. The Houthis have stated that the missile used was the Hatem/Hadim-2, a domestically produced hypersonic missile which the militant group claims can reach speeds of up to Mach 8 (eight times the speed of sound).
Solace Global Assessment:
The attack on the MSC SARAH V marks one of the longest-range Houthi attacks on merchant shipping and was likely launched to coincide with the withdrawal of the USS Dwight Eisenhower-led carrier group that spearheaded allied efforts to combat the Yemeni group.
Whilst the Houthis claim that the missile was domestically produced, the Hatem-2 anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) bears a strong resemblance to the Iranian “Kheybar Shekan” ASBM. Iran has a track record of providing its proxy groups with capable weapon systems so that Tehran can indirectly attack or influence its enemies with a high degree of plausible deniability.
Moreover, it is highly unlikely that the Houthi Movement have direct access to the technology or the domestic capability to produce an ASBM similar in nature to one of Iran’s most capable anti-ship systems. The Kheybar Shekan ASBM is purported to have a range of 1,450 kilometres (782 nautical miles); can reach altitudes of 135 kilometres; has a circular error probable (CEP) of under 20m; and according to some sources can reach speeds of up to Mach 8.
In addition, the missile uses a solid-propellant so doesn’t require fuelling before launch which would reduce the Houthis’ targeting cycle. Whilst it is unlikely that the Houthi variant is as technologically advanced as the Iranian model, if the Houthis have acquired some of this technology and are capable of proliferation, it will increase their ability to target international shipping.
The Houthis’ capability will be further augmented if their intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) are provided by Iran, allowing the proxy group to detect and track ASBM targets outside the ranges of their organic targeting assets.
The missile’s potential speed, ability to manoeuvre at speed if equipped with advanced control systems, and its parabolic trajectory may enable it to bypass coalition air defence and radars by reducing response times, creating unpredictable flight paths, and exploiting gaps in radar coverage.
This development could help to overstretch coalition naval assets currently providing air defence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and the weapon system will almost certainly be nominated as a high-value target for US and UK strikes.
Kenya: Protesters set parliament on fire as civil unrest escalates.
On 25 June, the Parliament of Kenya was set on fire after being stormed by crowds of protesters, gathering in opposition to a finance bill proposed by the government, which would have increased taxes on a wide range of goods. Despite a heavy-handed and violent police response, civil unrest has continued, with crowds calling for the resignation of President William Ruto, despite the withdrawal of the bill.
More than 20 deaths and hundreds of arrests and injuries have resulted from the protests as of the time of writing. On 28 June, the Kenyan High Court barred the police from using violent crowd dispersal methods, including water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition, following widespread cases of police brutality.
Solace Global Assessment:
The bill was proposed by the government of President William Ruto, who is trying to portray Kenya as a modern and stable African country and sees the reduction of the country’s USD 80 billion debt as vital to this end. Related to this is Ruto’s support for a UN-sponsored policing mission to Haiti to combat the recent wave of severe gang-led violence, as part of which 400 Kenyan police officers were deployed to the country last week.
The Ruto administration’s decision to increase taxes on a multitude of common goods such as bread, milk and sanitary towels, while pursuing the costly Haitian expedition, has almost certainly been the main trigger for civil unrest in a country where millions live below the international poverty line and are struggling to pay for basic commodities. The demonstrations are likely to continue and expand to other cities in Kenya’s south, beyond the epicentre of Nairobi.
Reports of cases of looting of assets owned by pro-government politicians in Nairobi and other cities highly likely indicate the important class dimension of the protests, and how the civil unrest is also linked to a broader dissatisfaction with the Kenyan political elite. The protests are likely to cause significant damage to infrastructure and result in a decrease in the government’s administrative capacity in the short term. This may create opportunities for further unrest and violence in the short-to-medium term, especially in the south.
There is a high likelihood of the protests impacting Kenya’s economy directly and indirectly, affecting business and travel within the country. The willingness of the government to employ violent crowd dispersal methods, and repeated failures of police forces to protect government assets, make it likely that the Ruto administration will have to deploy the military to curb the unrest. Such a scenario would likely further increase the risks faced by foreign humanitarian organisations operating in Kenya.
The suspension of internet services and damage to infrastructure will likely further complicate the provision of healthcare and limit opportunities to evacuate the country. Finally, the widespread reports of police brutality are likely to create important worries regarding the potential damages that the Kenyan police deployment may cause in Haiti, where conditions are even more chaotic than in their home country.
The repeated instances of police officers using extreme levels of brutality to target protesters likely demonstrate a significant and structural lack of oversight, which, if transferred to Haiti, could undermine the legitimacy of the UN-backed mission and bolster the gangs’ position and authority in the country.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected as President of the European Commission, and Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was elected as the EU’s next foreign policy chief on 28 June. Portuguese former Prime Minister Antonio Costa was nominated as President of the European Council. These nominations were expected and received support from a cohesive coalition of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe group.
Von der Leyen will now proceed to the European Parliament to seek reconfirmation for her second term. The significant aspect of the vote was the abstention of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which von der Leyen had actively courted in recent months. The parliamentary vote is expected to compel the EPP-led bloc to either maintain its alliance with the S&D or risk losing support from the left in favor of Meloni’s ECR and other smaller right-wing groups.
The UK general election is scheduled to take place on 4 July. The Labour Party led by Keir Starmer is highly likely to win in a landslide. However, there is a realistic possibility of some minor demonstrations following the vote, especially from left-wing groups who feel disappointed by Starmer’s moderate policies and positions on the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
The first turn of the French National Assembly snap election will take place on 30 June. The right-wing National Rally (RN) is likely to win the most votes in the first round, with a broad left-wing coalition led by the France Unbowed party (LFI) likely securing the second spot. Both are considered radical and outside of the “traditional” French centre-right and centre-left spheres. Consequently, it is almost certain that civil unrest will continue, and likely intensify after the first round and into the Paris Olympics.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was selected as NATO’s next secretary-general, scheduled to take over the post from Stoltenberg on 1 October. Rutte’s appointment, which was guaranteed after the Romanian candidate, President Klaus Iohannis, withdrew his candidacy, ensures a continuation of Stoltenberg’s status quo.
On 22 June, an estimated 30,000 Hungarians held a Pride rally in Budapest in defiance of the country’s anti-LGBTQ laws. The rally follows a joint statement by 44 embassies in the Hungarian capital protesting the Orban government’s restrictions on LGBTQ rights.
Moldova, Ukraine and the EU began membership talks on 25 June. The timing of the talks was likely arranged to predate the beginning of Hungary’s EU presidency on 1 July. The two countries’ candidacies for EU membership are almost two decades old, and, despite this step, there is a high likelihood that the timeline of their membership bids will continue to extend relatively far into the future. The announcement of talks is therefore likely a symbolic move, meant to respond to both Russophiles within the union, and to Russia itself, following Putin’s proposal of a “peace plan” which would have included major territorial concessions as well as Ukraine’s pledge to remain essentially isolated from the West. In Moldova, there is a high likelihood that pro-Russian separatist groups will intensify civil unrest and possible violence against institutions.
The parliament of Georgia passed the first reading of a new anti-LGBTQ law that emulates similar procedures passed in Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream coalition, which has faced massive protests due to its controversial “foreign agents bill”, is highly likely using “traditionalist” and anti-LGBTQ talking points to try to recuperate some support and embolden its conservative base. The law’s approval is likely going to further stoke anti-government sentiment and may open further space for violent police crackdowns on dissent.
Presidential elections will be held in Mauritania on 29 June. Incumbent President Mohamed Ould Cheikh Ghazouani is almost certain to win. Despite gradually moving in the direction of greater political pluralism, Mauritania remains unstable and there is a high likelihood that the vote will coincide with greater civil unrest and possible violence.
The Iranian elections’ first round is taking place on 28 June. Two hardline candidates dropped out on the eve of the vote, likely to bolster the victory chances of the two remaining conservatives aligned with Ayatollah Khamenei’s views. The one moderate that was allowed to run, Massoud Pezeshkian, remains unlikely to win. His candidacy was likely allowed to progress to bolster low voter turnout figures, which the Ayatollah sees as proof of the regime’s low popularity following years of protests.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
The French Interior Ministry ordered the dissolution of multiple extremist groups, either associated with identitarian or Islamist movements, in the days before the election. These include the identitarian Groupe Union Défense (GUD), one of the major neofascist organisations in Paris. There is an increased likelihood that supporters of the groups will carry out actions to stoke violence during the elections.
An attack by an unspecified terrorist group in Tassia, Niger, resulted in the deaths of 20 Defence and Security Forces (FDS) troops and one civilian. The village, located in the Tillaberi region close to Mali and Burkina Faso, was targeted in a sophisticated attack, involving armed gunmen and suicide bombers. It is highly likely that the attack was perpetrated by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), whose fighters conducted another attack in Tillaberi in March. The EU will also end its military mission to Niger on 30 June, citing the country’s “grave political situation”, a move that will likely encourage further attacks and influence Niger to increasingly court Russian assistance.
On 21 June, Cooperative for the Development of Congo (CODECO) militants reportedly attacked a village in the province of Ituri, northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). CODECO is an armed militia with an ethnoreligious character and is linked with the Lendu tribe. It carries out frequent attacks especially targeting the Hema tribe. The Ituri province is rich in gold, and competition over mineral resources continues to be a fundamental driver of inter-ethnic conflict. The attack, which resulted in the deaths of more than 20 civilians, highly likely demonstrates the DRC government’s waning control over its eastern provinces. Rwanda and other international powers continue to more or less directly back armed groups operating in the DRC’s eastern border regions, with the aim of informally securing control over the area’s mineral deposits and controlling the smuggling of minerals out of the country.
On 24 June, Somalia’s ambassador to the UN accused Ethiopia of carrying out an “incursion” into the country’s territory. Ethiopia currently deploys 3,000 troops as part of the peacekeeping African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), aimed at containing al-Shabaab’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa. ATMIS is committed to withdrawing by the end of 2024, and the Somali government has announced that it expects to be able to contrast the Islamist group. However, with al-Shabaab having recently made significant territorial conquests, these statements are likely far too optimistic. Mogadishu is likely experiencing far too excessive domestic pressures to mount a significant challenge to al-Shabaab. These include tensions with the breakaway regions of Puntland and Somaliland, as well as a host of other security and economic issues.
Bandits have conducted a series of attacks in Nigeria’s Katsina State. Multiple attacks have now occurred throughout June, forcing farmers to abandon their land which has resulted in higher food prices. The trend of attacks in Nigeria’s rural communities has been partially responsible for the country’s high inflation. Multiple commodities such as beans, beef, bread, rice and a host of vegetables have more than doubled in price during the last year, high food prices often sustaining periods of civil unrest throughout the country.
Senior leadership from the United State’s Africa Command (AFRICOM) and NATO met with multiple African defence chiefs in Botswana from 24 to 26 June. The conference addressed multiple security issues confronting Africa and is being used to bolster defence relationships in a continent where the West continues to cede ground to Russia and China. Containing the spread of jihadist groups was almost certainly on the agenda and the US attendees were reportedly seeking new bases in West Africa after their prompt withdrawal from Niger.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
The UN has warned that Nitazenes, a group of synthetic opioids stronger than fentanyl, are spreading across Europe after previously circulating in the US. The UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) stated in its most recent World Drug Report that synthetic opioids have now been detected in the UK, US, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Belgium and Canada, stoking fears over a new drug epidemic, strains on public health services and spikes in associated crime.
Wildfires in the Russian Arctic territories have caused the third-highest levels of emissions for this period of the year over the last two decades. Wildfires in carbon-rich soils such as the Russian tundra and boreal forest tend to be particularly damaging in terms of CO2 emissions. This year, the increase in severity in regional wildfires has been recorded weeks earlier than the usual peak of July and August, making it likelier that the warmest part of the summer will record even more severe statistics.
An outbreak of toxic strands of E. Coli bacteria, reportedly originating from grocery store products, has affected more than 200 people across the United Kingdom and killed at least one person. Symptoms of the infection include gastrointestinal issues and flu-like effects such as a temperature and headaches. Infection can be especially dangerous for individuals with pre-existing conditions.
At least one person was killed and hundreds were displaced after heavy rains caused flash floods in the southeastern Misox valley of the Swiss canton of Grisons. Weather conditions in Switzerland are variable, and forecasts indicate that the country may face a heatwave in the immediate aftermath of the floods.
On 23 June, crewmembers of a yacht in Greece were arrested after allegedly starting a fire by firing fireworks towards the island of Hydra, resulting in the destruction of 300,000 square metres (30 hectares) of pine forest. Greece faces a high threat from wildfires, most of which are started by humans, and exacerbated by the country’s summer dry and hot conditions. The incident is highly likely to cause increased scrutiny of over-tourism and luxury tourism in Southern Europe and may inspire acts of vandalism by environmental activists. For more information on the threat of “Ecotage” – or vandalism carried out by environmentalists – further information can be found here.
Also in Greece, the number of tourists reported as having died due to the ongoing heatwave affecting the country has risen to six. It is notable that June is not the hottest month in Greece, and that temperatures are likely to marginally increase in July. The climate change-related extreme heat affecting southern Europe, and Greece in particular, in recent years has exacerbated the severity of the risks faced by travellers to the country. There is a high likelihood that the threat from high temperatures will have impacts on Greece’s economy, especially damaging the tourism sector.
Asia–Pacific
Pakistan: Hundreds killed in Sindh province due to extreme heatwave.
More than 400 people were reported to have died in Karachi between 22 and 25 June alone due to the extreme heatwave currently affecting the country. The Sindh province, where Karachi is located, had multiple consecutive days of above-40 degrees Celsius temperatures. In May, it, alongside regions of India, recorded a temperature of more than 52 degrees Celsius. Conditions in Karachi are worsened by the high levels of humidity.
Solace Global Assessment:
The casualty numbers are likely understated, as they only account for identified bodies with clear causes of death assessed. Many of those who perished were homeless, complicating accurate reporting. The prolonged heatwave in Pakistan is expected to exacerbate health conditions, particularly impacting the poorer segments of the population disproportionately.
Additionally, the high temperatures have sparked fires and led to electrical failures, causing numerous power outages worsened by Pakistan’s inadequate energy infrastructure. This situation is likely to increase the use of diesel generators, contributing to additional pollution. Both India and Pakistan have experienced extreme heat over the past year, the hottest on record globally.
Factors such as poor sanitation, high humidity, overcrowded urban areas lacking green spaces, which help mitigate heat and lower nighttime temperatures, put the Indian subcontinent at heightened risk from extreme weather events. Apart from causing significant human suffering, heatwaves are also expected to adversely affect the economy by disrupting business activities and travel throughout the day.
With climate projections indicating a trend towards more frequent and severe heatwaves, countries like Pakistan face an escalating climate-related threat that demands urgent adaptation and mitigation measures.
India: Inter-religious tensions continue.
In the first month of its third consecutive term, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued implementing policies aimed at targeting the country’s Muslim minority. In June alone, several Mosques were demolished, often on pretence of alleged encroachment, in Delhi alone. On 27 June, a severed cow’s head was found near a Hindu temple in Delhi, and a BJP local politician responded to the incident by threatening to “slaughter” 200,000 of the city’s Muslims.
Solace Global Assessment:
Inter-religious tensions have been a central element of the BJP’s electoral strategy, with elected officials frequently endorsing conspiracy theories portraying Muslims as foreign agents aiming to destabilise the Indian state. Some BJP leaders advocate for transforming India into “Bharat,” a Hindu nationalist non-secular state. However, the BJP’s underperformance in the 2024 parliamentary elections, where it failed to secure a simple majority and was unexpectedly forced into a coalition, suggests that this identitarian domestic focus may not be as popular as previously thought.
Despite this setback on the national stage, BJP politicians at the local level are persisting in efforts to curb Muslim influence and presence in society. There is a significant likelihood that the continuation, and even escalation in some instances, of anti-Muslim policies in places like Delhi reflects efforts by local BJP officials to regain public support following the party’s electoral setbacks.
This approach carries the risk of provoking inter-communal tensions and potentially sparking violence, particularly in major urban centers where communal fault lines are more pronounced. The prospect of such tensions erupting into severe clashes remains a realistic concern, especially amidst a backdrop of heightened political polarisation and societal divisions.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
Mongolians will vote in parliamentary elections on 28 June, with the ruling party expected to retain its majority despite concerns over corruption, inflation, and the state of the economy. The Mongolian People’s Party, led by Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, is likely to benefit from a booming coal sector, but major frustrations remain over economic inequality and corruption which were some of the main drivers of the 2022 protests.
Vietnam has announced that is ready to hold talks with the Philippines over its overlapping claims in the South China Sea, in a diplomatic approach that contrasts with China’s assertive approach and use of grey zone tactics. Hanoi is responding to Manila’s submission to the UN’s Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to extend its exclusive economic zone to 350 nautical miles, which has created rival claims in the Spratly Islands. If both nations settle the dispute diplomatically and in line with the rules established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, it could help to undermine China’s claims and activities in the South China Sea, leading to international pressure for Beijing to follow suit.
Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, returned to Australia after more than a decade-long battle against extradition to the US, where he faced potential life imprisonment for publishing classified documents demonstrating that US troops committed crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as thousands of sensitive information and diplomatic cables. It is unlikely that the development will result in civil unrest.
Civil unrest has erupted again on the French territory of New Caledonia after seven pro-independence activists were arrested and flown to mainland France for detention, including the leader Christian Tein. The Indigenous Kanak people will likely interpret the moving of their leaders to France as “colonial tactics” and as a further challenge to their sovereignty, and may sustain unrest until those arrested are returned to New Caledonia.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
On 29 June, Hindu pilgrims will head to Pahalgam in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir for the start of the annual Amarnath Yatra. The region has seen a spate of attacks against Hindu pilgrims in recent months and the pilgrimage has been targeted by Islamist extremists in the past, such as during the 2017 Amarnath Yatra massacre. It is almost certain that the pilgrimage remains a high-profile target for VEOs in the area and the Indian authorities will be forced to increase security during the event.
On 22 June, India and Bangladesh strengthened their defence relationship by signing agreements to enhance cooperation in maritime security, the ocean economy, space, and telecommunications during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to New Delhi. India’s Prime Minister Modi celebrated Bangladesh’s decision to join the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative- a regional initiative aimed at enhancing regional maritime security, sustainable use of marine resources, and fostering cooperation among countries in the Indo-Pacific region, likely viewing this as a strategic move to draw Bangladesh away from China.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
In Hwaseong, South Korea, a battery factory fire killed 23 workers. Surveillance video footage reveals that the fire followed the sudden explosion of multiple lithium batteries, which started a chain reaction that led to the destruction of much of the building. As of the time of writing, it is unclear what caused the batteries’ explosion, which resulted in a particularly destructive chain reaction. The incident is likely to spark significant security concerns, and possibly have important impacts on battery manufacturing in South Korea.
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Executive Summary
- There is a realistic possibility of an overall increase in Argentina’s risk levels following worrying developments regarding infrastructure, economics, and social issues.
- An assault on a prison van in France highly likely signals the offensive capabilities of crime syndicates in the country, and likely increases the risks of violence during the Olympic Games.
- The dismantling of an Iranian army-smuggling operation by Jordan almost certainly demonstrates the Kingdom’s worries about growing anti-government sentiment at home.
- There is a realistic possibility that the Chinese – Russian talks will deepen military cooperation between the two countries, as Beijing likely supports a continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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AMER
EMEA
APAC
Canada: Evacuations as wildfire season begins
Argentina: Signals of possible increase in country risk levels
Panama and Colombia: Children crossing Darien Gap increase 40%
France: Van ambush is latest security nightmare for Paris
Slovakia: Assassination attempt on Prime Minister Fico
Israel and Palestine: IDF operations in Jabalia and Rafah
Jordan: Kingdom dismantles Iranian gun-smuggling operation
British Antarctica: Massive oil discovery worries Whitehall
China: Xi and Putin hold bilateral talks
New Caledonia: Proposed reform causes widespread clashes
Global Dates and Events
The most powerful solar storm to hit the Earth in the last 20 years took place during this reporting period. Despite some worries about possible disruptions to power grids and satellite communications, the event did not have any major adverse effects on the general population but caused some degradation in the accuracy of some satellite-based services.
Nakba Day, the commemoration of the expulsion of 750,000 Arab Palestinians from the Palestinian territories during the 1947-1949 Arab-Israeli War, occurred on 15 May. Protests were recorded across Europe, North America, and the Middle East, which focused on opposing current Israeli operations in Gaza.
On 21 May, Ireland, Spain and several other EU members will jointly recognise Palestine as a sovereign state. The move, is likely to result in civil unrest, and may prompt an immediate degradation in relations with Tel Aviv, also affecting Brussels. It was most likely prompted by domestic pressures.
North, Central and South America
Canada: Wildfire season begins
Firefighters in western Canada are fighting the first major wildfires of the 2024 wildfire season. Thousands of residents have been ordered to evacuate the areas around the town of Fort Nelson, British Columbia, as an out-of-control wildfire approaches the area which has already burnt an estimated 20,000 acres. Reporting from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre indicates that Canada is currently struggling to contain nearly 120 major wildfires, with most located in the provinces of British Columbia and Alberta.
Solace Global Assessment: Canada’s wildfire season typically runs from April to September or October when temperatures decrease, and precipitation increases. However, the extent of the current wildfires, in terms of both size and intensity, has prompted concerns that this year’s wildfire season will be worse than average. Unseasonably warm temperatures and drought have almost certainly shaped conditions favourable to the spread of wildfires. The current drought monitor map released by the Government of Canada highlights severe, extreme, or exceptional drought conditions across significant portions of British Columbia, Alberta, the Northwest Territories, and Saskatchewan provinces. Additionally, nearly half of the country is experiencing moderate drought, indicating a heightened risk of wildfires spreading rapidly across various regions of Canada. In 2023, nearly three-quarters of the Northwest Territories were forced to flee their homes, an area traditionally immune to wildfires. The fires have also highlighted the fragility of rural communities that often rely on limited infrastructure. Communities not directly affected by the wildfires have suffered from internet and phone blackouts with residents unable to contact emergency services, failed electronic payments, ATM failures and transport disruption, with some communities reliant on only one supply route. The scale of the wildfires has been attributed to climate change with experts warning that it will result in areas historically spared by wildfires being affected. There have already been calls for Canada to tighten its emission caps on the oil and gas sector – a contentious issue in a country where these industries contribute approximately 5-7 per cent of its GDP. As the wildfires continue to spread, there is a high probability that climate-motivated protests will increase across Canada.
Panama and Colombia: Child migration in Darien Gap up 40% in 2024
A UNICEF report estimates that, so far in 2024, more than 30,000 children have traversed the dangerous routes that cross the jungle between Colombia and Panama, out of a total of 140,000 people. UNICEF predictions project that up to 800,000 migrants, 160,000 children, will travel through the area this year. The Darien Gap is one of the last completely undeveloped regions on earth, and traversing the thick jungle poses massive health risks, with chances of rescue almost non-existent. Panama’s President-elect José Raúl Mulino has vowed to shut down migration routes through the country.
Solace Global Assessment: So far, Panama has been a necessary stop for migrants seeking to reach the US from South America. The country’s governments have aided migration, providing busses to transport migrants from the edge of the Darien Gap to the country’s northern borders. Still, the Gap continues to represent a particularly perilous journey, but it is likely preferred by migrants who do not have the means to tackle maritime routes. Moreover, organised crime in Colombia has increasingly profited from helping migrants reach and cross the approximately 100 kilometres of jungle. Still, migrants paying smugglers face increased risks, including sexual assault, theft, and murder. Additionally, the increase in migrant inflows has likely favoured the development of local bandit networks, which carry out violent attacks and kidnappings on the transiting migrants. President Mulino, who will take office on 1 July, is likely responding to increasing pressure from the US government, which is increasingly trying to stifle migration at its southern border. With little border infrastructure currently in place, it is almost certain that efforts in this direction will be conducted through a massive deployment of security forces in and around the Gap, seeking to intercept migrants before they reach the inhabited parts of the country. However, such a measure would likely exacerbate humanitarian issues in the Darien Gap, possibly increasing transit times and therefore worsening health risks. Moreover, if it achieves its deterrent purpose, it will almost certainly result in an increased number of migrants undertaking the more perilous maritime routes, possibly creating broader regional consequences, as well as impacting maritime transport and activity in the Gulf of Panama.
Argentina: Budget records further surpluses, but other developments signal increasing risk levels.
The Argentine government announced its fourth consecutive month of budget surpluses, the first in two decades. However, this reporting period has seen a series of incidents that may hint at a general increase in the overall risk levels for Argentina. This piece tries to present a few snapshots, highlighting economic, social, and infrastructural issues.
Solace Global Assessment: The budget surplus is likely to further boost Milei’s claims that his unorthodox economic policies are working to change course on decades of economic stagnation. Coming from a period of severe protests, it may improve the president’s approval ratings, currently hovering at around 50 per cent. While praised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for his reforms, Milei is still seeking to unlock further IMF funds, in addition to the USD 800 million that are part of the loan programme’s current schedule, and which are needed to repay interest on Buenos Aires past borrowing. After taking office, Milei simply warned that “there is no money”, and the statement, months into the administration, has taken a tangible form. On 10 May, a major train collision in the Palermo neighbourhood of Buenos Aires resulted in at least 90 injuries and has promoted a judicial enquiry. Early indications suggest that the copper cable used to carry power along the tracks had been stolen leading to a signal failure. Union leaders had been demanding that the stolen cables be repaired for ten days before the incident to which the government allegedly replied that there were no funds for spare parts. The incident will almost certainly be linked to President Milei’s economic austerity measures and refusal to invest in public infrastructure, and it may hint at a growing risk regarding public and private transport within Argentina. Declining infrastructural standards may have unpredictable adverse effects on business in the country, leading to disruptions and delays, as well as physical damages to individuals and assets. Further warning signals have also been recorded at the social level. Over the course of last week, three women died days after having been deliberately burned in a homophobic attack. On 6 May, a man reportedly threw a Molotov cocktail inside a boarding house room where two lesbian couples were staying. The only surviving victim remains at the hospital but is expected to survive as of the time of writing. Over the last few years, Argentina has become considered one of the most socially progressive South American countries. In 2010, Buenos Aires legalised same-sex marriage, and the country has introduced stricter legislation against identity-based discrimination. While Milei describes himself as an “anarchist” socially, civil society actors have raised alarms concerning the rise of hate crimes and discrimination in the country, seemingly encouraged by the president’s “anti-woke” rhetoric and actions. Activists have decried the abolition of state institutions providing resources for victims, and others monitoring incidents of violence and harassment. While these gestures could be construed as “cost-cutting” measures, Milei has also more directly engaged in anti-progressive discourse, for instance symbolically renaming, on International Women’s Day, the presidential palace’s “Hall of Women” into the “Hall of Heroes”. Furthermore, Milei’s increasingly violent repression of anti-government demonstrations has likely emboldened far-right voices within the country, possibly leading to an increase in the risk of civic violence and unrest.
AMER Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
The two candidates for the 2024 US Presidential elections have agreed on holding two presidential debates before the vote in November. Former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden will meet to debate their platforms in Georgia, on 27 June, and in an unspecified location on 10 September. The Georgia debate, which will take place in an important swing state, will not be attended by a live audience, as the organisers likely worry about the extremely charged nature of this electoral season. The debates are almost certainly going to result in localised travel disruptions and may entail an increased risk of domestic, “lone-wolf”, terrorism.
On 15 May, Washington removed Cuba from its list of countries “not cooperating fully” against terrorism. The move is likely meant to signal the US’ openness to further improve diplomatic relations with the island state. In recent years, Cuba has improved security and intelligence ties with Moscow, and there is a high likelihood that Russian intelligence assets operate on the island from the Lourdes SIGINT station, which had already been used by their Soviet predecessors. While unlikely to result in any short-term changes, the announcement will likely be received warmly in Havana.
On 19 May, voters in the Dominican Republic will decide the country’s next president and members of Congress. All three of the leading candidates have promised to tackle illegal immigration from neighbouring Haiti which continues to be afflicted with gang warfare and a total lack of security. Incumbent President Luis Abinader has promised to finish constructing a border wall, a move that has been condemned by human rights groups due to the extent of violence in Haiti.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Observers in the United States have recorded an increase in the number of threats targeting New York Justice Juan Merchan and other individuals involved in the hush money trial of former President Donald Trump, following the latter’s online posts. Having been banned from X.com (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and other “mainstream” social media channels, Trump has increasingly been communicating with supporters through “Truth Social”, a Twitter-like site which has attracted almost exclusively pro-Trump users. The trial proceedings have increased the threat of lone-actor terrorist action in New York, and a verdict adverse to Trump’s camp may lead to a growing likelihood of ideologically motivated violent action.
In Canada, a fourth man was charged with killing Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Canadian officials are currently investigating possible connections between the alleged killers and the Indian government, claiming that Delhi organised the assassination of the leader to stifle the reach of the Khalistan independentist movement. The case will likely continue to affect tensions in Canada, and, in particular, regarding the country’s current immigration system.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
Thousands of people in Canada’s British Columbia province have been evacuated due to the growth of a large wildfire in the province’s northeast. British Columbia is one of Canada’s main centres for the extraction of natural gas, and a hub for Canadian commerce towards Asia. Disruptions caused by the fire could negatively affect the local economy, and create shipping delays to and from Canada, were the phenomena to worsen. In 2023, Canada saw its worst wildfire season on record, as fires have become more severe due to drier and hotter weather conditions. This case is highly likely not to remain isolated, as the risk of wildfires will grow significantly in the coming months across Canada and much of North America.
Two people have died in Louisiana, and hundreds have been displaced due to tornadoes sweeping through the southern US. Power cuts and traffic disruptions have also been recorded, with the area of Baton Rouge particularly affected. Tornado season in the US takes place between March and June, and this spring has seen a high frequency of extreme weather events. In Texas, recent flooding has been compounded by severe hailstorms, which have damaged infrastructure, and particularly affected agricultural businesses in the area.
Authorities in the southernmost Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul have warned that flooding that has affected much of the state, including the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre, will take weeks to subside. Parts of the state have seen more than 630mm (25 inches) of rain already this month. Flooding has resulted in widespread supply chain disruption, killed almost 150 people and displaced over half a million, with further rain forecasted in the coming days.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
France: Gunmen kill three guards, free inmate from prison van in latest security nightmare for Paris
In the morning of 14 May, a prison van carrying a high-ranking drug cartel member from Marseille was ambushed at a highway toll booth in the Eure department, in the country’s north. Videos released online show at least three assailants, armed with submachineguns, open fire on the prison van and its police escort, after crashing an SUV into the lead vehicle to immobilise it. At the time of the attack, the van was transporting Mohamed Amra, reportedly a leader of a drug-trafficking syndicate based in Marseille who had been a suspect in various cases of homicide, armed theft, and attempted homicide. French authorities have launched a massive search to find the fugitive and the perpetrators of the attack.
Solace Global Assessment: The ambush took place in the Eure district, which borders the region of Paris. In recent years, the city of Marseille has become a hotspot for drug trafficking in France and Europe, especially due to the arrival of large shipments of South American cocaine which have increasingly carved a larger portion of the European drug market. Gangs in Marseille have increasingly engaged in clashes for control within the city and in its outskirts, which have resulted in dozens of deaths. French authorities recorded 2023 as the deadliest year for drug wars in the city, with a reported 47 deaths and 118 injuries. The Macron administration has been haemorrhaging votes to its right-wing opposition and has increasingly sought to take a “tough on crime” stance to recover some lost support. This imperative has become even more important with the approaching Olympic Games, set to begin in July. In March 2024, the administration launched a major crackdown operation in Marseille, which led to almost 200 arrests. Still, it is unlikely that past operations have dented the pervasiveness of gang presence in the city, which is fuelled by socioeconomic inequalities and important levels of deprivation, as well as the existence of quasi-segregated peripheral quarters, where the French police exercise very little control. Importantly, these same parts of the city often see a strong Islamist presence, including by groups associated with Middle East-based Sunni radical organisations. In 2018, a radical Salafi preacher was expelled from France to Algeria after being reported for preaching sermons targeting Jews, women and Shiites in one of Marseille’s main mosques, and, in more recent years, local imams have launched appeals to Paris warning against the local penetration of Salafi extremist thought in the more deprived parts of the city. The high sophistication of the attack on the prison van is likely indicative of France’s drug gangs’ growing offensive capabilities and there is a realistic possibility that Islamist groups have access to much of the same assets due to their overlap with gang networks and the communities where they operate. With the Paris Olympics on the horizon, the ambush highlights the severe security risks that the Games will face.
Slovakia: Populist Prime Minister in hospital after suspected assassination attempt.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is in a serious but stable condition after being shot multiple times on 15 May. The attack occurred in the small town of Handlova while Fico was meeting with supporters outside a cultural centre. He was rushed to F. D. Roosevelt University Hospital in Banska Bystrica, where he underwent a five-hour surgery and is in intensive care at the time of writing. The alleged suspect, reportedly a 71-year-old writer and political activist, was detained at the scene.
Solace Global Assessment: The shooting of Prime Minister Fico was almost certainly politically motivated and is widely being reported as an assassination attempt. At the time of writing, however, no group has claimed responsibility for it, and it appears almost certain that the perpetrator acted alone. Fico secured office in October 2023 after running a divisive campaign marked by a populist agenda. He has been one of the few outspoken European leaders championing rapprochement with Russia and Slavonic solidarity, often calling for an end to the EU’s military support for Ukraine, with Slovakia halting all arms deliveries to Kyiv. Fico’s populist government has recently approved a proposal to abolish the country’s public broadcaster and replace it with a new body as well as weakening anti-corruption laws. These developments have generated fears regarding the independence of the media and the state of democracy in Slovakia, leading to widespread protests. Anecdotal reporting indicates that this may have been the motivation for the assassination, with Fico’s ruling SMER party also suggesting that false narratives propagated by the opposition have contributed to the shooting. The incident will almost certainly lead to heightened security measures in the country and, in the long term, it could be exploited to suppress dissent and push through some of SMER’s more contentious proposals. Finally, there have been reports of Russian-affiliated accounts on social media channels carrying out information operations alleging Ukrainian or NATO responsibility for the attempted assassination, with some posts calling for violence against European officials. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has contributed to this discourse, hinting at the theory that the attack was linked to Fico’s “reasonable” stance on Russia. While the risk of terrorism remains low, there is a realistic possibility of cases of targeted violence and harassment against Slovakian pro-EU officials and political figures in the coming weeks.
Israel and Palestine: IDF operations in Jabalia and Rafah
After launching the first phase of their offensive into the southern Gazan city of Rafah, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have re-entered the Jabalia, in the north, where they were met with heavy resistance from Hamas elements. With the invasion of Gaza so far having failed in its objectives to destroy Hamas and rescue the approximately 100 Israeli hostages still in Palestinian captivity, a rift opened, or came to the fore, in the Netanyahu administration as Defence Minister Yoav Gallant raised a public objection to the proposal of setting up an Israeli military government in Gaza after the end of hostilities.
Solace Global Assessment: The IDF identified Jabalia as a stronghold of Hamas resistance in Gaza and conducted operations to neutralise it shortly after entering the Gaza Strip in October 2023. By late December 2023, IDF forces reported having destroyed three Hamas battalions following heavy combat in the Jabalia refugee camp. The recent restart of fighting there, the most severe increase in the north of the Gaza Strip since the Al-Shifa hospital raid, encapsulates the failures of the IDF to prevent the re-infiltration of Hamas elements in previously cleared areas. It is likely that Tel Aviv recognises that these difficulties are endemic. Despite significant casualties, Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups continue to retain enough assets to challenge IDF units in the Gaza Strip’s dense urban landscape. They are also still able to recruit from the hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians. Moreover, the Netanyahu administration likely realises the important political dimension of the conflict for its “survival” at home. Seven months into the conflict, having expended significant political capital at home and abroad, the Likud-led government finds itself in a political dilemma. On one side, its electoral base continues to support the war effort in a rather hawkish manner and is impatient due to the ongoing failures to achieve the war’s stated strategic goals. On the other, the remark by Gallant seems to indicate a growing realisation, or admission, that Gaza is essentially “unwinnable”: even if Sinwar and the other Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip are captured or killed, and the remaining Hamas elements neutralised, large numbers of IDF troops would necessarily need to remain stationed in the area to prevent the creation of new Hamas units or successor groups. Essentially, this would rewind the Israeli position on Gaza by two decades, likely, however, reigniting the same political pressures for the recognition of a Palestinian state that had expedited the decision for the 2005 troop withdrawal from the Strip (albeit without the added issue of the dismantling of settlements). The prospect of a protracted military occupation, which a reported leaked confidential paper puts at a cost of USD 5.4 annually, would also bring back memories from southern Lebanon, whose occupation after the 1982-1985 war proved economically and strategically unfeasible. However, it is unclear what other exit scenarios exist, even if Israeli goals are achieved. Among the plans being discussed in Tel Aviv, an appealing one likely sees local clan leaders and civilian parties create a joint government to manage the Gaza Strip, with limited but constant cooperation with Israeli forces, and possibly with the oversight of an Arab state. However, it is unlikely that Cairo, or any of the Gulf States, will seek to engage in a policy of management that would prove extremely unpopular at home – and would possibly expose it to diplomatic embarrassment were a successor of Hamas to gain traction in Gaza. Moreover, it is not clear if any such internal parties exist. Hamas’ killing of a Doghmush clan leader in March highlights the group’s keen awareness of its necessity to root out potential challengers, and it is likely that significant progress has been made in this direction. No matter how unlikely to succeed this scenario, and other ones, are, however, it is almost certain that the Netanyahu administration will try to avoid mentioning a clear alternative: the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces following the end of hostilities, and the return to a policy of isolating Gaza while carrying out occasional incursions to reduce the strength of a resurgent Hamas. This would amount to a political failure – and a self-inflicted one, due to Netanyahu’s continuous pledge to destroy Hamas – and will almost certainly represent the end of the current Likud administration.
Jordan: Iranian weapons smuggling operation discovered by Jordanian authorities.
On 15 May, Jordanian sources reported that the Kingdom of Jordan had foiled a plot by Iran to smuggle weapons into the country to arm anti-monarchy activists and members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood organisation. The plot’s dismantling reportedly dated back to March. The routes allegedly ran through Syria and were coordinated through connections between Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas elements. Iran has already been reported as running weapons smuggling operations into the West Bank, in an effort to arm Palestinian militants. Jordan is considered to be one of the most stable countries in the region, and the Kingdom contributed to the interceptions of Iranian drones and missiles during Tehran’s massive strike against Israel in April.
Solace Global Assessment: Jordanian intelligence and security forces have likely been aware of Iranian arms smuggling efforts aimed at arming the Palestinians, and the timing of the crackdown suggests a likely growing worry in the Kingdom’s ruling circles. Jordan’s population is largely of Palestinian heritage, and almost wholly supportive of the Palestinian cause. The monarchy’s pro-Western stance is largely tolerated, but the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza has contributed to making anti-government dissent more vocal and bolder. The Hashemite family has responded to this situation by boosting its criticism of Israel, including by withdrawing their ambassador from Tel Aviv, in an effort to align itself more with popular feelings. However, the exacerbation of the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip has resulted in a growing number of particularly aggressive demonstrations, with protesters notably attempting to storm the Israeli embassy in Amman in late March. Iran, which has placed itself successfully at the head of the global pro-Palestine movement, likely sees the destabilisation of Jordan as particularly desirable to both reinforce its influence in the West Bank through a loosening of the frontier between the two territories and to reduce the American footprint in the region. By arming Muslim Brotherhood elements, Tehran possibly seeks to favour acts of terrorism targeting local authorities and security forces, or alternatively spark further protests more directly aimed at the government. A worsening of the political situation in Jordan would negatively affect the numerous NGOs and humanitarian organisations that operate in the country. In a worst-case scenario, it may result in a reduction of Western counterterrorism operations in neighbouring Syria and Iraq, creating a medium-term opening for a growing influence of Islamist groups.
British Antarctica: Whitehall discusses Russian Antarctic oil and gas discoveries.
The results of a series of studies carried out by the Russian ship Alexander Karpinsky in 2020 have revealed the presence of massive oil and gas deposits in the Antarctic territory claimed by Britain. Last week, the findings have sparked debate in the UK Parliament. Both Russia and the UK are signatories to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty and the 1991 Environmental Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty, which bans the exploitation of mineral resources in the continent.
Solace Global Assessment: The Alexander Karpinsky, which was formally in the region to conduct scientific research, was much more likely involved in Russian prospecting operations. The find, which dates back four years, is strategically extremely important. According to current estimates, the deposits, located under the Weddell Sea, would amount to around 511 billion barrels worth of oil, or ten times the output of the North Sea deposits over the last 50 years. The deposits fall not only under the UK’s claim but also under claims by Chile and Argentina, which partially overlap with the British one. The question of Antarctic sovereignty continues to be a grey area, as the 1959 Treaty clearly states its non-impact over signatories’ sovereignty claims, which remain pending. Moreover, while the treaty covers Antarctic land and ice shelves, it does not extend to the seas surrounding it, meaning that possible claims of exclusive interest would fall under customary and treaty law. While the treaties’ texts seemingly state that Arctic claims do not generate Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), claimant states have de facto repeatedly asserted their ownership of Antarctic maritime zones. The result of this situation is a status quo where the legitimacy of a specific state’s claims would necessarily rest only upon the acquiescence of other treaty signatories, a condition that is unlikely to materialise due to the, so far, perceived lack of meaningful incentives. The lack of clarity and coverage in the Antarctic treaties has already led to increased competition, especially with regard to the marine resources present in the area. Russia and China, in particular, continue to hinder efforts to extend protections to wildlife in the areas and conduct intensive fishing operations that are likely contributing to threatening the volume of krill and fish in Antarctic waters. In strategic terms, Britain’s Antarctic claim is bolstered by the UK’s overseas Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the Falkland Islands and the South Georgian and the South Sandwich Islands, all of which are disputed by Argentina, that claims the islands as part of its own sovereign territory. It is almost certain that the increase in Russia’s exploration and prospecting operations in the Antarctic follows from broader strategic imperatives. Even before the invasion of Ukraine, the Putin regime, whose attempts to effectively diversify Russia’s economy have failed, increasingly sought to maintain capital inflows and domestic government spending levels through the provision of cheap fossil fuels to China and other international partners. With the isolation that followed the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s interest in further oil and gas deposits has likely increased. In recent years, almost certainly due to the opportunities posed by the exploitation of fishing grounds, China has also seen its interest in the Antarctic increase. In February 2024, Beijing inaugurated its fifth research station on the continent, raising concerns about a possible increase in Chinese security and intelligence activities. The Russian discovery, as well as possible future ones, may reduce the stability of the precarious status quo that has so far “frozen” the various states’ claims, and lead to a much more unclear regional environment.
EMEA Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
In Sweden, the nation’s largest labour union, Unionen, stated, on 14 May, its support for the Tesla workers currently engaged in a six-month-long strike. The strike concerns workers’ demands for collective bargaining. The announcement may result in an increase in the cases of sabotage of Tesla cars and assets by leftist and ecological activists.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) has secured the most seats in the Catalan regional elections after independence parties lost support. Nationalist parties no longer control Catalonia’s regional parliament, a development that will almost certainly be deemed a major blow for the independence movement. The results will likely be sold as a vindication for Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s coalition tactics and controversial amnesty bill that has garnered opposition from the right and triggered unrest within Spain.
On 12 May, voters in Lithuania voted in the nation’s presidential elections. Incumbent Gitanas Nauseda won the first round in voting, winning 44 per cent of votes, just coming short of the 50 per cent required to automatically secure a victory. Nauseda will now go up against Prime Minister Ingrdia Šimonytė during a run-off election on 26 May. This repeats the 2019 elections where a run-off between these two were held. Early indications are that Nauseda will secure a re-election; however, the election highlighted growing anti-establishment sentiment, potentially signalling a move in favour of pro-Russian parties in the country’s upcoming parliamentary elections.
Unionised public sector workers belonging to the Greek Civil Servants’ Confederation (ADEDY) are set to conduct a nationwide 24-hour strike on 21 May over issues of pay and workers’ rights, with protestors set to convene outside the Ministry of Finance in Athens. The organisers of the strike have yet to announce which areas will be affected but there is a realistic possibility that the strikes will impact the transport and health sectors, leading to localised disruptions.
Renewed protests have taken place in the Armenian capital of Yerevan. Demonstrators have called on the government to reverse its decision to concede land to neighbouring Azerbaijan and the opposition is seeking ways to impeach the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Protests have blocked major roads in and out of the capital and the security services have arrested hundreds of demonstrators. The demonstrations are unlikely to end soon with thousands calling for the resignation of Pashinyan and elements of the Armenia Apostolic Church endorsing the protests.
On 12 May, Tunisian protesters took to the streets in Tripoli to demand the release of imprisoned journalists and activists and a date for new elections. While his five-year term is set to expire in 2024, Tunisian President Kais Saied is yet to announce a date for the vote. At the same time, the country, at one point considered the only “success story” of the Arab Spring, has continued to experience significant authoritarian backsliding, with Saied concentrating significant powers under the presidency. The protests, which continue at the time of writing and are yet to reach severe proportions, may cause significant disruption, or violence, depending on the authorities’ response.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Three men in the UK have been charged with offences under the National Security Act, including assisting Hong Kong’s intelligence service and foreign interference. The men are accused of undertaking information gathering, surveillance, and acts of deception likely to aid a foreign intelligence service. The arrests were part of the Metropolitan Police’s counterterrorism investigations and follow a suspected Chinese hack of the UK Ministry of Defence’s payroll system, likely indicating the level of espionage China conducts within or against the UK. The Chinese embassy in London condemned the UK’s accusations, stating Hong Kong’s affairs are China’s concern.
In Rouen, France, a suspected terrorist was shot and killed by police forces after setting fire to the city’s Synagogue. The attack was likely linked to anti-Israeli sentiment. France is the Western European state with the largest Jewish population and has seen a massive increase in antisemitic attacks following 7 October.
Turkey has expanded its military operations against Kurdish militants in Syria with reports suggesting that Turkish forces, alongside the allied Syrian National Army (SNA), have been shelling villages and burning farmlands in the Manbij province, provoking concerns over food security in the area. Turkish forces have also prosecuted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) targets in Iraqi Kurdistan. Ankara is likely exploiting the withdrawal of Western forces from the region, the world’s preoccupation with Gaza and Iraq’s shifting stance towards the Kurds. After high-level talks between Iraqi and Turkish officials, Iraq announced the designation of the PKK as a banned organisation, a move that will likely invite more Turkish influence to the region. The Kurdish National Congress (KNK) has stated that President Erdogan is seeking to gain strategic and economically important territory after electoral setbacks, warning that such a policy could provoke a regional conflict.
European Union member states have agreed to end their military training mission to Mali after the mandate expires on 18 May. The EU cited the “evolving political and security situation”. The European bloc is likely unwilling to support a junta government that has stifled democracy and pivoted towards Russia. Jihadist groups may seek to exploit a lesser-trained military, but it is likely that the provision of military training will be undertaken by the Kremlin’s Africa Corps.
Overnight on 10 May, more than 100 people were kidnapped by gunmen during night raids in three villages, Gora, Madomawa, and Jambuzu, in Nigeria’s northwest Zamfara state. Kidnappings are a growing issue in Zamfara state with criminals almost certainly conducting them for ransom payments and those responsible have already demanded negotiations. Kidnappers are likely targeting remote villages and exploiting an overstretched security service in northern Nigeria that is having to contend with a host of Islamist groups. Security forces’ efforts to rescue the abducted may result in road closures and potentially armed clashes in the region.
On 10 May, an Italian vessel operating as part of the EU’s anti-piracy mission ATALANTA detained six Somalis suspected of having attempted to hijack an oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden. The case likely illustrates the growing threat posed by Somali piracy, which has increased due to the Houthi’s campaign of Red Sea strikes. The ability of Somali pirates to target vessels at increasingly large distances from their coasts is particularly worrying and may further influence the shipping sector in the region.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
As the South African electoral campaign nears its end, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed a bill into law that overhauls the country’s healthcare system. Currently, 84 per cent of South Africans access state-provided healthcare facilities, while the remaining 16 per cent can afford private care. The two-tier system contributes to fueling the country’s severe socioeconomic inequalities, which are some of the sharpest in the continent. The reform introduced the National Health Insurance (NHI), a system that provides funds for poorer South Africans to access private care. The opposition has warned that the policy will result in higher taxation and called it a ploy to bolster the ruling party’s chances in an election that is projected to be strongly contested.
Asia–Pacific
China: Xi hosts Putin in Beijing for bilateral summit.
On 16 May, China’s President Xi hosted Russian President Putin and a delegation of key officials and CEOs in Beijing, marking Putin’s second visit to China in the last year and his first state visit since being inaugurated for his fifth term. The two leaders praised their strategic relationship and suggested that it was not “opportunistic”. President Xi called for an urgent resolution to the war in Gaza and was praised by Putin for China’s efforts in attempting to resolve the Ukraine crisis with both leaders suggesting that there needs to be a political resolution to the conflict. The talks also covered Sino-Russian trade, energy and a shared view concerning the decline of the West.
Solace Global Assessment: For Putin, Xi’s China has been a major economic lifeline since the imposition of hundreds of sanctions from the US and its Western allies and one of the closed-doors meeting talking points was likely how to effectively circumvent these sanctions. Putin’s visit comes as Russia has opened up a new front in Ukraine and is attempting to seize as much territory before the arrival of Washington’s latest USD 61 billion military aid package. Whilst China has not provided conventional arms to Russia, it has supplied a range of “dual-purpose” equipment and crude components. These have included semiconductor chips for precision-guided munitions, jet parts, ball bearings, motorbikes and all-terrain vehicles. These are considered “dual-purpose” as despite their obvious military applications, these systems and components can in theory be used for civilian purposes. Russia would invariably want to go one step further and secure finished military hardware from China to alleviate pressures on its military-industrial base and to get weapons onto the battlefield with reduced timelines. However, it is unlikely that Xi would authorise this as he attempts to balance opportunities with Russia against relations with the West. For China, the war in Ukraine has afforded it improved access to cheaper Russian oil and gas. In 2023, Russia was China’s largest supplier of oil, clearly showing that China knows it has the freedom to ignore US sanctions without facing any major reprisals. Russia has also become a major destination for Chinese imports after the West’s refusal to export to Russia, and Russian debt to China has increased significantly. Furthermore, public opinion in China is largely supportive of Russia or indifferent, with it being widely believed that Russia had to invade Ukraine to counter the expansion of NATO. With Western efforts doing little to deter China, economic opportunities abounding and domestic public sentiment not challenging China’s stance, there is little reason for Beijing to truly work towards ending the conflict. The continuation of the war in Ukraine is likely in Beijing’s interests given the economic opportunities it has exploited and the fact that Western support in Ukraine has put it in a weaker position to support Taiwan.
New Caledonia (France): Violent riots challenge the authority of Paris in Asia-Pacific territory.
Authorities in the French territory of New Caledonia implemented a curfew on 14 May and prohibited public gatherings in the capital Nouméa following violent protests against proposed constitutional changes. During the clashes, businesses, including car dealerships and shops, were damaged. Flights were also cancelled, schools closed, and impositions placed on the sale of alcohol. These measures failed to curb the civil unrest and, on 15 May, French President Macron declared a state of emergency in New Caledonia. Ongoing violent protests have resulted in at least four deaths including that of a gendarme, over 300 injured, hundreds of arrests and damage estimated at several hundred million Euros. Macron also promised to meet the violence with an “unyielding response” with reports indicating that the French military would be deployed to the territory alongside four gendarmerie squadrons.
Solace Global Assessment: New Caledonia has been deeply divided by proposals to increase the territory’s autonomy from Paris, with many calling for outright independence. However, recent referendums have rejected independence. In the 2018 and 2020 referendums, 56 per cent and 53 per cent of voters decided to remain part of France. During the 2021 referendum, 96 per cent decided to remain with France but only after a boycott by pro-independence groups. These developments have likely galvanised the indigenous Kanak people who broadly support independence and comprise an estimated 40 per cent of the territory’s 300,000 people, as well as some smaller ethnic groups. The current violence has almost certainly been triggered by lawmakers in Paris who recently made changes to voting rolls that indigenous people have claimed will dilute their political influence. Moreover, as the protests have been triggered by decisions made by France’s central government, they may result in a “domino effect” causing protests to spark in France’s other overseas territories. France’s measures to curtail the protests, such as the imposition of a curfew, banning of social media apps and the deployment of military and police units from the mainland, will likely be interpreted as a colonial power exercising its illegitimate authority over an indigenous people and are likely to antagonise the rioters and ultimately strengthen the independence movement. Local populations have also likely been provoked by the 1998 Nouméa Accord which promised to grant the territory more independence but also confirmed its existence as part of France, leading to 40,000 French people moving to the relatively small territory and further diluting indigenous influence. For Paris, New Caledonia holds strategic importance, and its loss would decrease French military and political influence in the Asia Pacific at a time when France is attempting to increase it. The island territory lies between Australia and Fiji, is host to a French air and naval base and has a large Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), contributing to France’s global power projection capabilities. France has maintained this network more successfully than other colonial powers by recognising them as part of France. However, the possible loss of New Caledonia could trigger a chain reaction of independence movements that would significantly decrease France’s international standing, suggesting that France will likely allocate substantial resources to quell the New Caledonian protests which may lead to more energised riots and deaths in the short term.
APAC Summary and Forecast
Politics, Economics and Civil Unrest
In Thailand, a 28-year-old monarchy reform activist charged with insulting the monarchy died on 14 May of cardiac arrest following a hunger strike. The activist had demanded a reform of Thailand’s lese majeste law which can lead to sentences of up to 15 years for insulting the monarchy. Her death may lead to student-led democracy protests like the ones which erupted in 2020. Thailand’s recent shock decision to re-criminalise cannabis just two years after it was legalised is also likely to lead to street protests, with some minor street protests being staged on 16 May.
Security, Armed Conflict and Terror
Officials in Pakistan have stated their intent to speed up the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the most high-profile symbol of cooperation between the two countries. The call for urgency has been driven by a surge in attacks on Chinese nationals in the country, largely attributed to the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other ethnic Baloch and Sindhi insurgent groups that strongly oppose the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These groups argue that the CPEC disproportionately benefits other areas of Pakistan and will likely aim to intensify their attacks if the CPEC is accelerated.
China and Cambodia started their annual military exercise “Golden Dragon 2024” on 16 May. The 15-day exercise will include over 1300 personnel and 11 Cambodian vessels combined with almost 800 Chinese troops and three warships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The exercise is almost certainly symbolic of developing military cooperation between the two countries and will further provoke fears over the establishment of a PLAN base on the Cambodian coast that will enable it to sustain more operations in the disputed South China Sea and further afield.
Environment, Health and Miscellaneous
At least 300 people have been killed after flash flooding hit the north of Afghanistan. The floods also caused widespread economic disruptions, bringing to a halt the agriculture-based economy of the Baghlan, Takhar, and Badakhshan provinces. The Taliban government has increasingly had difficulties responding to the extreme weather events affecting the country, which are exacerbated by the combination of Afghanistan’s rough and mountainous terrain and its extremely poor infrastructure. Terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, firstly the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), may seek to intensify attacks on authorities in an effort to enhance the disruptions currently faced by Kabul to undermine the Taliban’s rule.
Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned that three heatwaves are set to hit several of the country’s major cities during late May and early June. The first heatwave is expected in cities including Umarkot, Tharparkar, and Bahawalpur, with temperatures reaching up to 40°C. A second heatwave, lasting four to five days, may occur later in May or early June, with temperatures rising to 45°C. The third heatwave is predicted for the first 10 days of June, affecting several cities in Sindh and Punjab. Additionally, the Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) cautions of increased temperatures and heavy rains in South Punjab from May 10 to 11, posing threats to crops.
In Mumbai, India, 14 people were killed and dozens more injured after a large billboard collapsed on a local gas station during a particularly intense storm on 13 May. At least 15 planes were diverted from the area due to the phenomenon’s severity. More extreme weather events remain a realistic possibility, as the North Indian Ocean cyclone season, which affects weather in much of the Indian subcontinent, enters its peak between May and November.
On 11 May monsoon rains and a major mudslide from a cold lava flow or lahar on Mount Marapi caused a river to breach its banks and tear through mountainside villages in four districts in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province. The floods have killed at least 40 people and damaged hundreds of homes, with relief efforts disrupted by damaged or blocked roads. With Mount Marapi being active since January, it is likely that further eruptions and heavy rain will lead to more landslides in the area.
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