INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

While the cause has not yet been fully established, a fire in southwest France reportedly damaged a power line between Perpignan and eastern Narbonne, potentially triggering the blackouts. Portugal’s government announced that the incident appeared to stem from outside the country, and a cabinet minister suggested it may be a problem with the distribution network in Spain. Domestic media have pointed to issues with the European electric grid, which may have impacted Spain and Portugal’s national grids. Spain’s cybersecurity institute is investigating the possibility that it was caused by a cyberattack.

During the power outages, it is highly likely that there will be a temporary increase in opportunistic crime and petty theft. This is likely exacerbated by the fact that citizens have been asked not to call the emergency number, 112, unless in an emergency, to avoid overloading the phone lines.

Significant traffic disruptions are almost certain, particularly in Spain and Portugal. Traffic light outages will highly likely trigger increased congestion, which will likely be exacerbated by rail network disruptions, forcing more people to drive. There will likely also be higher rates of road traffic accidents. Portuguese police have deployed extra officers to assist with traffic circulation. There will highly likely be a knock-on effect to travel over at least the next 24 hours, even after power is restored.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

There is a high likelihood of demonstrations coinciding with the commemorations. Unrest is likely to start in the late morning of 29 March and continue throughout the day, highly likely intensifying in the evening when organised rallies and protests conclude.

Santiago will almost certainly be the epicentre for protests and the city most impacted by traffic disruptions. The primary hotspot of unrest will almost certainly be Villa Francia in Estacion Central, where the 1985 killings occurred. Additionally, areas that will likely be affected include La Pincoya in Huechuraba, La Victoria in Pedro Aguirre Cerda, Lo Hermida in Penalolen, Bajos de Mena in Puente Alto, Pudahuel, La Pintana, and Cerro Navia.

Outside Santiago, unrest is possible in central districts of Valparaiso, Conception, Telmuco, and other Chilean cities. There is a realistic possibility that protests will be driven by other grievances disconnected from the commemoration. For instance, there are ongoing protests in Valparaiso over a controversial fishing sector law; local left-wing groups may seek to stage joint unrest during the Day of the Young Combatant to capitalise on visibility.

While protests during the morning and early afternoon will likely be peaceful, clashes with security forces are possible. Later in the day, particularly at night, the likelihood of violent unrest will increase considerably.

Past demonstrations during the Day of the Young Combatants have consisted of protesters erecting makeshift barriers, burning tyres, vandalising private businesses (particularly banks and the offices of foreign companies), firing projectiles including fireworks, and throwing Molotov cocktails at the police and other targets.

Some demonstrators will likely be armed and are likely to seek direct confrontation with police forces. Chilean police will almost certainly deploy violent crowd control measures in response to the unrest, including tear gas, pepper spray, water cannons, and possibly rubber bullets. Past demonstrations have resulted in dozens of arrests.

While protesters are unlikely to intentionally target bystanders, the nature of the unrest will likely increase the potential for incidental harm.

The fires began on 7 January after a bush fire was caught by a windstorm, spreading the fire into surrounding areas. California is currently affected by the northeasterly Santa Ana winds, which are caused by high pressure over the Great Basin. These winds have fuelled many of California’s worst wildfires in the past, including the 2018 Woolsey fire, which killed three people.

The winds have reached speeds of approximately 100 km/h, and could reach 160 km/h in the mountains and foothills, areas which have not experienced substantial rain for months. Winds are expected to worsen on 8 January and continue into 9 January. They will highly likely continue to spread the wildfire, despite the fire department’s efforts.

Peak wildfire season in California typically occurs between July and October each year. Although wildfires are unusual in January, high winds have combined with particularly dry conditions in California to contribute to fertile conditions for the wildfire to spread. Rains of over 0.25 centimetres have not been experienced in Southern California since May 2024.  The Santa Ana winds have exacerbated the dry conditions by reducing the humidity levels.

Fire hydrants have reportedly run out of water in the Palisades area. While water tanks are currently being used to supply water to fire fighters, this severely limits the extent to which the fire department can tackle the ongoing wildfires. The reason for the water shortage is currently unknown, but water shortages at fire hydrants may occur because of power outages, high demand during large fires, broken water mains, or drought conditions. Given the recent dry weather, the issues are likely influenced by low water supplies in Southern California.

The northeasterly winds are reportedly pushing smoke southwest towards Malibu. The South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) predicts that PM2.5 levels will remain in the Unhealthy category in the Air Quality Index. Authorities have advised that residents utilise respirators when outside.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The fire department will highly likely continue to struggle to contain the fires. Increasing windspeeds and dry conditions already make it difficult to prevent the fast spread of the fire. This issue is exacerbated by the water shortages in the Palisades area, which is the location of the largest wildfire. Furthermore, the high windspeeds have meant that they have been unable to launch firefighting aircraft.

Given windspeeds are set to increase over the course of 8 January, wildfires are highly unlikely to die down over the next 24 hours. Despite the fire department utilising bulldozers to clear roads, the large quantities of abandoned vehicles will highly likely continue to hinder fire fighting operations.

Fire hydrants running out of water is not unprecedented. Recently, fire departments encountered low water pressure when tackling wildfires in Camarillo, California in November 2024, causing two water pumps to become inactive. While this slowed firefighting efforts, firefighters prioritised life-saving missions over protecting property and reportedly reduced the potential fatalities. Similar focus will almost certainly be employed in the Palisades area, where there is a water shortage.

In the aftermath of the wildfires, residents who have had their property destroyed are likely to ask questions regarding the lack of water in the fire hydrants. Much of California’s water infrastructure was built in the 1960s and 1970s, lacking advanced modern technology and prone to leaks and inefficiency. Given California has one of the highest water needs in the US, the government is likely to come under increasing pressure to modernise California’s water infrastructure in the months following the wildfire.

United Airlines has issued a travel waiver enabling itinerary changes for flights booked out of Hollywood Burbank Airport (BUR) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) between 7 and 9 January. Some flights into BUR, situated approximately in the middle of the three wildfires, have been diverted to LAX because of smoke from the fires. LAX has not yet had significant flight disruptions but is approximately 30 kilometres south of the Pacific Palisades.

The Palisades fire is currently burning in a westerly direction, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department. Therefore, there is a realistic possibility that LAX will avoid significant disruptions. However, if there is a shift in winds causing the Palisades fire to spread further south, then it will likely result in significant airport disruptions. While significant shifts in Santa Ana winds are unlikely, changes in the pressure systems could influence the wind direction.