Global Election Review for April 2019
Click to view the Global Election Review 2019 – April, you’ll notice this is a more in-depth look at each election – the new format replaces the initial free report previously posted.
Global Security Forecast: Week 14 2019
GLOBAL HEADLINES
Iran: Hamedan Adverse weather causes flooding in the west of the country After years of drought, western Iran received 70 percent of the region’s annual rainfall in a single day. As a result of the unprecedented adverse weather, flooding has heavily impacted Hamedan, in Hamedan Province and Pol-e Dokhtar, in Lorestan Province. On Monday 2 April, the authorities ordered emergency evacuations in several locations in Lorestan Province, while also issuing warnings regarding flood waters in Khuzestan Province reaching a “critical level”. Thus far, at least 62 people are believed to have been killed in the flooding. Reports indicate that tens of thousands of people have been displaced, putting pressure on emergency shelters and disaster relief efforts. Storms forecast for the coming days are also predicted to affect the west and southwest of the country. Further flooding, disruption and damage are to be expected. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to adhere to all instructions issued by the authorities. Defer non-essential travel to Hamedan, Lorestan and Khuzestan provinces as well as any other areas that are being impacted. Keep yourself informed of the situation through local news sources. If currently in the affected locations, do not attempt to cross waters of an undetermined depth and ensure that all accommodation is in an area not prone to flooding. Remain aware that emergency services and hospitals might be unable to provide assistance due to insufficient resources.Venezuela: Nationwide Judges strip opposition leader Guaidó of immunity On 1 April, the government-backed National Constituent Assembly lifted the parliamentary immunity status for the opposition leader and self-declared interim President Juan Guaidó, as he supposedly violated a travel ban in the past months by visiting several South American countries that openly support regime change in Venezuela. He previously enjoyed immunity due to his position as the head of the National Assembly. At present, whether Maduro’s government will take further action by arresting him, remains unclear. However, as Guaidó is being accused by the authorities of inciting violence and hiding personal finances, this latest development might legitimise an attempt to arrest him. Following the National Constituent Assembly’s decision to strip him of immunity, Guaidó posted a speech on social media reassuring supporters of having a contingency strategy in place, while instigating nationwide protests to take place on 6 April. At present, further details on the protests have not been announced. The arrest, or some form of detention, of Guaidó would be a dangerous step for the Maduro regime as it would both galvanize the opposition and the international community opposing Maduro’s government, potentially resulting in harsher sanctions and direct international intervention in the country’s crisis. However, it is unclear what the next step for the country will be, as Maduro continues to control the state and military apparatus with crucial support from China and Russia. ADVICE: Avoid all travel to Venezuela as the situation is likely to deteriorate further. Public demonstrations in support of Guaidó and for President Nicolas Maduro are likely following this announcement. Venezuela’s crisis has further deepened following a recent series of power outages that have led to transportation and communication disruptions.
Nepal: Bara & Parsa District Deadly thunderstorm kills at least 30 on 31 March At least 30 people were killed and hundreds more were injured after a violent thunderstorm hit Bara and Parsa districts in southern Nepal, about 120km south of capital Kathmandu on 31 March. Emergency services have been unable to reach the worst affected areas due to the damage to roads and communication lines; as a consequence, the death toll is likely to increase. Hazards such as flooding and mudslides pose a further threat to the region. During the pre-monsoon months, it is common for Nepal to experience severe thunder and hailstorms that can cause significant property and agricultural damage; however, fatalities are rare. Rescue and relief operations are underway. Some locals have bemoaned the “tourism” that the disaster has caused. While trucks and trailers have arrived loaded with sacks of rice and vegetables, horse-drawn carriages and brightly painted auto-rickshaws have also brought visitors from neighbouring villages and towns. Some have come just to look whilst others have been busy taking selfies and snapping photos of the locals. There even are reports of a group of students who were there with their teacher; apparently on an educational trip to experience what a disaster zone looks like. ADVICE: Flooding has led to widespread disruption in Bara and Parsa districts in southern Nepal. It is not recommended to attempt to drive through flooded roads. Dangerous obstacles are often unseen in flood waters and there is potential for strong undercurrents, even in low-level flood waters. Additionally, be aware that there may be localised sections of civil unrest in response to the disaster as people have lost their livelihood.
Uganda: Queen Elizabeth National Park US citizen kidnapped for ransom in Uganda On 2 April, an American national and her safari guide were kidnapped at gunpoint in Queen Elisabeth National Park, located in south-west Uganda on the border with Congo. The two were reportedly on a game drive in the park, without the presence of any armed guard despite being advised to have one, when they were abducted. Ugandan police have dispatched an elite squad of investigators in the wake of a ransom demand made by Ugandan militants. Despite the rapid escalation of the event, officials have managed to cordon off and secure a considerable area which encompasses much of both the Ugandan and Congolese border. Police are convinced that the perpetrators are housed within the search areas diameter. The woman concerned was kidnapped alongside four other US citizens and a Ugandan driver; the other hostages were freed shortly after. The militants are in-contact with US officials and are demanding a US$500,000 ransom pay-out for her safe return. Far from being a standalone event, the kidnapping contributed to the heightening international concern surrounding the security of foreign nationals in Uganda due to a substantial rise in kidnappings made over the past 12 months. Advice: If travelling to Uganda, remain aware of the heightened threat in kidnapping and exercise increased vigilance. Avoid carrying luxury items, as foreigners are often targeted for the perceived wealth. Foreign nationals travelling to the region should be aware of this specific threat, this is especially the case for high-net-worth individuals. When travelling to a remote area, take sensible precautions, such as hiring a security-trained driver and avoid travelling at night. Consider communicating to your Foreign Office your itinerary and remain aware of the in-country situation through local and international news.
Libya: Tripoli Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s troops advance on the Libyan capital The military strongman’s troops have already seized control of the oilfields in the south of the country and are now advancing on Tripoli in an effort to take de-facto control of the country’s government. Haftar, a former Gadhafi general who spent time in exile in the US, is backed by both neighbouring Egypt and, allegedly, by Russia; in the form of mercenaries and money. The general has been painted as a secularist, countering the jihadist threat in the country by many. However, many of his supporters include Salafists and Islamic fundamentalists. Despite this wide range of support, and apparent ambition to take over the entire country, Haftar’s forces are already facing stiff resistance as they advance on Tripoli from the country’s de-jure government. Elsewhere, it remains unclear what support outside of Egypt and Russia the Field Marshal can look to enjoy, France, in particular, appears attracted by the prospect of a military strongman to use as a basis to build a more united – and stable – Libya. Haftar has also been encouraged by the silence of the International community, which has emboldened his advance. Advice: Travellers are advised to defer all travel to Libya for at least the next 48 to 72 hours due to the potential for an outbreak in fighting. Travellers in-country, and especially in Tripoli and Misrata, should remain in place in a secure location with enough supplies to remain for at least seven days. Ensure you have 24/7 professional security support.
Libya: Tripoli Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s troops advance on the Libyan capital The military strongman’s troops have already seized control of the oilfields in the south of the country and are now advancing on Tripoli in an effort to take de-facto control of the country’s government. Haftar, a former Gadhafi general who spent time in exile in the US, is backed by both neighbouring Egypt and, allegedly, by Russia; in the form of mercenaries and money. The general has been painted as a secularist, countering the jihadist threat in the country by many. However, many of his supporters include Salafists and Islamic fundamentalists. Despite this wide range of support, and apparent ambition to take over the entire country, Haftar’s forces are already facing stiff resistance as they advance on Tripoli from the country’s de-jure government. Elsewhere, it remains unclear what support outside of Egypt and Russia the Field Marshal can look to enjoy, France, in particular, appears attracted by the prospect of a military strongman to use as a basis to build a more united – and stable – Libya. Haftar has also been encouraged by the silence of the International community, which has emboldened his advance. Advice: Travellers are advised to defer all travel to Libya for at least the next 48 to 72 hours due to the potential for an outbreak in fighting. Travellers in-country, and especially in Tripoli and Misrata, should remain in place in a secure location with enough supplies to remain for at least seven days. Ensure you have 24/7 professional security support.
Algeria: Algiers President Bouteflika resigns amid protests; council to meet on 10 April to decide future On 2 April, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced his resignations, effective immediately. His declaration follows two months of nationwide protests against the president’s attempt to run for re-election, demanding his immediate departure from office. Demonstrations have been fueled by systemic issues like a high unemployment rate, sluggish economic growth and lack of political options for change. The now-former president became the focal point for the unrest and a symbol of the government’s inaction, partially due to his lack of public appearances since a stroke in 2013. Algeria’s 12-member Constitutional Council is now expected to meet on 10 April to discuss the course of action. Amidst the ongoing political crisis and uncertainty, labour unions across several sectors announced their plans to hold a strike and protests on the same day. Further demonstrations over the coming hours and days are considered likely throughout the nation, as well as a heightened security presence attempting to prevent any additional instability. Solace Global Comment: President Bouteflika was considered merely a figurehead since his stroke in 2013. The real decision-making power in the country was believed to be held by a shadowy group of businessmen, politicians and generals known as “le pouvoir” (or “the power”). The country is now entering a period of high political risk, with the protester’s ambitions growing and many wanting a new start. The decision-making establishment, who would normally have control over the situation, is also struggling; General Ahmed Gaid Salah, has tried to but failed, to gain authority over the process. Additionally, the intelligence chief, Athmane Tarag, who was a close ally of Bouteflika, quit this week under pressure from the military. Officials have looked across the region and warned of bloodshed. Indeed, Algeria’s own history offers a warning example of the consequences of the potential conflict; Algeria’s civil war began after Islamists won the first round of free and fair parliamentary election, in 1991. Generals stepped in and cancelled the rest of the voting. Around 200,000 people were killed in the exceptionally politically divided conflict that touched nearly every part of Algeria’s society and lasted until, officially, 2002. ADVICE: Individuals are advised to monitor local media for updates on the political situation. Avoid all demonstrations and gatherings, as well as openly discussing political matters in public. In-country travel disruption is possible as a result of the civil unrest and it is, therefore, recommended to allow additional transport times and be aware of alternate routes to minimise potential delays.
Israel: Nationwide/Gaza border Elections to be held amidst tensions with Gaza. Early legislative elections will be held in Israel on 9 April to elect the members of the Knesset, the unicameral legislature of Israel, which will determine whether the sitting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been in power since 2009, will be granted a fifth term in office. The sitting prime minister is surprisingly trailing in the polls against his opponent, lieutenant-general Benjamin Ganz, former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces. Netanyahu, who historically favours hard-line solutions to deal with Palestinian terrorism and unrest, has recently escalated the political discussion regarding Gaza, reportedly stating that the option of an occupation is still on the table. The statement comes in the context of recent protests along the border between Gaza and Israel, where tens of thousands of Palestinian demonstrators gathered on 30 March to commemorate the first anniversary of the ‘Great March of Return’ with at least four people being killed. The fatalities are reported to have occurred when Israeli troops opened fire after protesters rushed the fence, with numerous injuries recorded. The following day, further clashes took place along the border fence as unrest continued. Additionally, local reports indicated that at least five rockets were fired into the Eshkol Regional Council area of Israel on 31 March, however, only two seem to have landed in deserted areas. No significant damage or casualties were reported. In response to the rocket attack, allegedly perpetrated by Hamas in response to the deaths of the Palestinian protesters (though no group has officially claimed responsibility for the rockets), IDF retaliated with airstrikes, artillery bombardments and targeted tank strikes against suspected Hamas military positions. There were no reports of casualties. ADVICE: Travellers are advised against all but essential travel to Gaza, or to border areas within Israel, due to an increase in tensions, mass protests and military operations. The security environment in the area is expected to deteriorate in the run-up to the election date and possibly the following days. Travellers should remain vigilant and follow local and international news.
European Union Brussels: The 21st EU-China Summit to be held on 9 April. On 9 April the 21st EU-China Summit will take place in Brussels, with the aim of strengthening bilateral cooperation. The European Commission, responsible for determining the Union’s economic and trade agreements, issued a statement declaring that member states won’t be able to achieve their objectives unless they maintain full unity. Apart from trade and investment, key topics that will be addressed during the yearly summit are multilateralism and global governance, human rights, foreign policy issues such as the Venezuelan crisis and the Iran Nuclear Deal, as well as the contentious subject of the security of the 5G network. Notably, EU member states are threatening to refuse to sign a joint statement, like during the 2016 and 2017 Summit, citing the repeated non-fulfilment by the Chinese counterpart of commitments made in the past. In fact, the EU faces great pressure by their populous to hold China accountable for the accusation of repeated violation of human rights, as well as issues related to economy and trade like the protection of intellectual property. Finally, the ongoing trade war between China and the US significantly contributes in creating a more volatile environment for already tense talks. ADVICE: There is a possibility that the Summit could spark demonstrations by human-rights groups protesting Chinese “political education” camps and politically-driven arrests. The protests are expected to be non-violent but might cause additional security measures to be put in place and minor travel disruption in the area.
Significant Dates & Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Unrest |
| 5 April | China/Taiwan | Qingming Festival (Tomb Sweeping Day) | LOW |
| 5 April | Nepal | Ghode Jatra (Horse Parade) | LOW |
| 5 April | South Korea | Arbor Day (Shik Mok Il) | LOW |
| 6 April | Burundi | President Ntaryamira Day | LOW |
| 6 April | Maldives | Legislative Elections | LOW |
| 6 April | Mauritius | Ougadi – Public holiday | LOW |
| 6 April | Thailand | Chakri Memorial Day (Public holiday) | LOW |
| 7 April | Mozambique | Mozambique Women’s Day | MODERATE |
| 7 April | Rwanda | Genocide Memorial / National Mourning Day | HIGH |
| 7 April | Tanzania | Sheikh Abeid Amani Karume Day | MODERATE |
| 7 April | Andorra | Legislative Elections | LOW |
| 8 April | Macedonia | International Romani Day | LOW |
| 9 April | Georgia | Restoration of Independence Day | LOW |
| 9 April | Iraq | Baghdad Liberation Day | MODERATE |
| 9 April | Kosovo | Constitution Day | LOW |
| 9 April | Liberia | National Fast and Prayer Day | LOW |
| 9 April | Israel | Legislative Elections | HIGH |
| 9 April | Philippines | Day of Valor (Public holiday) | LOW |
| 9 April | Tunisia | Martyrs’ Day | MODERATE |
| 11 April | Costa Rica | Anniversary of the Battle of Rivas | LOW |
| 11 April | United States | 2019 Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia | LOW |
| 11 April | Venezuela | Anniversary of coup that temporarily ousted President Hugo Chavez (Rallies likely) | HIGH |
GLOBAL SECURITY FORECAST: WEEK 13 2019
Mali: Mopti Region
Over one hundred Fulani people killed in attacks in central Mali
Local reports now suggest that at least 134 Fulani herders have been killed in attacks carried out at the villages of Ogossagou and Welingara in the Mopti region, during 23 March. Gunmen, reportedly dressed as local Dogon hunters, encircled the villages and opened fire at the herders and their families, killing indiscriminately. Women, children and elderly people are said to be among the dead. Islamic Jihadist groups with links to Al Qaeda and the Islamic state are active in the region and it is suspected this attack has been perpetrated by such a group.
ADVICE: Travellers are advised against all but essential travel to Mali due to the presence of active Islamist terrorist groups. Travellers to Mali are advised to adopt enhanced security measures and have contingency plans in place for all possible emergencies.
Israel: Tel Aviv Israel has carried out retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza following a rocket attack north of Tel Aviv Early on Monday, 25 March, a rocket struck the living quarters of a residential house in Mishmeret; hitting a residential house and injuring seven people. The rocket, understood to be a J-80 rocket, is believed to have been fired at its maximum possible range from an area near Rafah in the Gaza strip; evading Israel’s Iron Dome air-defence system. Israel has responded to the strike as in retaliation to an attack; it conducted airstrikes on believed Hamas-controlled territories in Gaza and mobilized ground forces along the border. Reportedly several buildings associated with Hamas were destroyed in the process. A ceasefire was reached thanks to Egypt mediation; however, this appears to have been disregarded by both sides with limited military actions continuing, despite not targeting residential areas. During the crisis, and following a bilateral summit in Washington DC, President Donald Trump officially announced that the United States officially recognise Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights, contested territory and occupied by controversial settlements. The announcement has sparked international outrage and has been seen as a political stunt to support incumbent President Netanyahu ahead of the elections later in April. ADVICE: For more, read our Travel Advisory: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/israel-carried-retaliatory-airstrikes-gaza-following-rocket-attack-north-tel-aviv/
Mozambique: Beira At least 138 cholera cases recorded in cyclone-hit Beira as officials struggle to contain the spread of the disease At least 138 cholera cases have been recorded in Beira, Mozambique, following Cyclone Idai that struck the area on 14 March. The storm resulted in catastrophic flooding and killed more than 700 people across three countries in southeast Africa. Although there have yet to be any confirmed cholera deaths in a medical centre in Mozambique yet, at least two people have died outside of hospitals with symptoms including dehydration and diarrhoea. Additionally, a deceased child was reportedly brought into an emergency clinic earlier in the week also with symptoms consistent with cholera. Communities in the region have been left isolated and stranded by the storm and are relying on heavily polluted water in order to survive. As such, it is highly likely that further cases will be reported in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, a rise in the death toll is likely in the weeks ahead, as aid organisations are struggling to provide assistance in the region. ADVICE: Avoid all non-essential travel. To have a more in-depth look at the long-term impact of the cyclone, have a look at our Travel Advisory on Cyclone Idai: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/cyclone-idai-kills-hundred-causes-long-term-humanitarian-crisis-south-eastern-africa/
Algeria: Algiers Army chief calls for President Bouteflika to be ruled unfit to govern Following weeks of unrest in the country following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement that he’ll seek a fifth term as president in the now delayed April elections, the country’s army chief, General Ahmed Gaid Salah, has stated that the president should be declared unfit to rule. The announcement by the head of the country’s highly influential military is an important step in the crisis. In fact, despite the ongoing unrest, announcements that Bouteflika would not seek a fifth term and delays to the election, an actual resolution appeared out of reach. Overall, tensions appeared to be increasing and are sparking fears, both inside the country and in the international community, of a political crisis escalating into full-scale violence. However, while some hope for a new Arab Spring 2.0 in Algeria, it appears that the current situation has greater similarities to Egypt in 2013 when the military removed the Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi from the government. The military has put forward a suggested road map for the country to manage the transition following almost 20 years of Bouteflika rule. Simply replacing Bouteflika is unlikely to fully resolve the crisis, as the demonstrations have also been directed at the entire ruling elite – veterans of a long-since won independence war against France – plus, their allies in the army, businesses, legislature and unions. All these groups could lose significant influence through any succession; managed or not. However, it is understood that the country’s opposition has rejected the army chief’s proposed road map. Several opposition parties and protesters denounced the general’s remarks as an attempt to stifle their movement; even as a breakaway faction within Algeria’s ruling party, National Liberation Front (FLN) has backed the call. ADVICE: Travellers and businesses are advised to continue monitoring media sources and official announcements. The situation may escalate with little or no warning. Maintain flexible itineraries and be prepared to alter or cancel trips at short notice should tensions escalate. Additionally, be prepared for potential mobile network and internet outages.
Venezuela: Caracas Russian military personnel have arrived in Caracas to “discuss military cooperation” The members of the Russian military who have arrived in Caracas will not take part in any operations according to the Venezuelan military attaché in Moscow. Instead, it is being reported that the military personnel have been deployed to the country to discuss cooperation. President Donald Trump has stated that “Russia has to get out” whilst also hosting self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó’s wife Fabiana Rosales. According to media reports, two Russian air force planes landed outside of the capital on Sunday, 24 March, carrying nearly 100 troops. It is believed that the troops were special forces and include cyber experts. Russia has not directly commented on the troops but did state that unlike officials in Washington “Russia is not threatening anyone”. Solace Global Comment: The deployment of Russian military officials is likely an attempt by Russia to protect its investments in the country. Moscow has invested/lent/given billions of dollars in the past as well as playing an active role in joint ventures with the country’s oil industry. The deployment of troops is not a sign of an escalation at this time but may heighten tensions. ADVICE: Continue to avoid all travel to the country.
Tunisia: Tunis Arab League Summit set to be held in Tunis on 31 March Tunisia is set to host the 2019 Arab League summit at the Council of Arab Interior Ministers’ headquarters in the capital Tunis, on Sunday 31 March. Tunisian diplomats are hoping to play a mediating role in the summit, with the objective of projecting a unified opposition to President Trump’s recent acknowledgement of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, bitter rivalries remain amongst member states which are likely to be exposed during the talks. The Gulf states of Saudi Arabi and UAE are unlikely to express strong statements of condemnation in an effort to maintain good relations with the US – who are currently putting pressure on their main rival Iran. Moreover, member states have differing views over the current conflicts raging in Yemen and Syria, the latter remaining suspended from the league since the beginning of the uprising against Bashir Al Assad in 2011. Police and military personnel have been deployed across the city and security has been tightened at both land and sea borders in the run-up to the summit. Although no specific threats have been identified, the summit could be viewed as a high-profile target by terror organisations or as an opportunity to protest a multitude of issues affecting the region. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to expect heightened security in the city and to anticipate delays to journeys.
Turkey: Nationwide Turkey to increase security nationwide ahead of vital local elections on 31 March Turkey is set to elect mayors and local officials on 31 March in a race that is seen as a test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party following last year’s crisis and the ongoing economic instability. These are the first elections since the 2018 presidential election, which saw the implementation of the major constitutional changes introduced through popular vote in 2017. The referendum made the president both the head of state and the head of government in Turkey; take over the latter role from the now-abolished role of the prime minister. As such, these elections are seen as a major test for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). The last regional elections in March 2014 resulted in the victory for the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), who won both Istanbul and Ankara. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) came second, winning control of İzmir, Turkey’s third largest city. The elections, including the presidential elections in 2018, carried accusations of electoral fraud and malpractice which sparked numerous protests nationwide. Turkey is preparing to increase security measure nationwide ahead of the election due to the risk of unrest but also due to the threat posed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Violence cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Travellers should keep abreast of the latest information as there is the potential for protest action and counter-demonstrations during the campaign period of the local elections. These protests may also escalate into violent clashes in some areas; however, this risk remains low at this stage.
Ukraine: Nationwide First presidential election since Russian annexation of Crimea set to be held on 31 March Ukraine is set to hold its first presidential election on 31 March; with the second round of voting being carried out on 21 April if no candidate receives an absolute majority. There are 34,544,993 people are eligible to vote in the elections; however, roughly 12 per cent of the eligible voters will not be able to participate due to the annexation of Crimea by Russia as well as the continued separatist occupation of eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. By barring a number of voters due to the occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in the east of the country, Russian leaning candidates are highly unlikely to gain much ground in the election. Indeed, the main Russia-leaning candidate, Yuriy Boyko, is currently polling fourth behind former comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, current President Petro Poroshenko and Pro-EU politician Yulia Tymoshenko. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while normal travel to the majority of Ukraine can continue, a heightened security presence and police checkpoints should be expected. Monitor all official announcements and the latest media reports for further information regarding the elections and the security situation. If possible, as a precaution, consider deferring travel this weekend (30 March- 1 April) in order to minimise potential risk to travel. Russian travellers should ensure they have adequate documentation justifying their journeys and should also be prepared for entry being barred. Travel to the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and to the disputed Crimea should be avoided and is banned to all except those with a specific purpose (journalists, aid workers or other non-governmental organisational workers). Additionally, travel to Russian controlled Crimea may later impede travel to Ukraine and vice-versa.
Israel: Tel Aviv Israel has carried out retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza following a rocket attack north of Tel Aviv Early on Monday, 25 March, a rocket struck the living quarters of a residential house in Mishmeret; hitting a residential house and injuring seven people. The rocket, understood to be a J-80 rocket, is believed to have been fired at its maximum possible range from an area near Rafah in the Gaza strip; evading Israel’s Iron Dome air-defence system. Israel has responded to the strike as in retaliation to an attack; it conducted airstrikes on believed Hamas-controlled territories in Gaza and mobilized ground forces along the border. Reportedly several buildings associated with Hamas were destroyed in the process. A ceasefire was reached thanks to Egypt mediation; however, this appears to have been disregarded by both sides with limited military actions continuing, despite not targeting residential areas. During the crisis, and following a bilateral summit in Washington DC, President Donald Trump officially announced that the United States officially recognise Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights, contested territory and occupied by controversial settlements. The announcement has sparked international outrage and has been seen as a political stunt to support incumbent President Netanyahu ahead of the elections later in April. ADVICE: For more, read our Travel Advisory: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/israel-carried-retaliatory-airstrikes-gaza-following-rocket-attack-north-tel-aviv/
Mozambique: Beira At least 138 cholera cases recorded in cyclone-hit Beira as officials struggle to contain the spread of the disease At least 138 cholera cases have been recorded in Beira, Mozambique, following Cyclone Idai that struck the area on 14 March. The storm resulted in catastrophic flooding and killed more than 700 people across three countries in southeast Africa. Although there have yet to be any confirmed cholera deaths in a medical centre in Mozambique yet, at least two people have died outside of hospitals with symptoms including dehydration and diarrhoea. Additionally, a deceased child was reportedly brought into an emergency clinic earlier in the week also with symptoms consistent with cholera. Communities in the region have been left isolated and stranded by the storm and are relying on heavily polluted water in order to survive. As such, it is highly likely that further cases will be reported in the coming days and weeks. Additionally, a rise in the death toll is likely in the weeks ahead, as aid organisations are struggling to provide assistance in the region. ADVICE: Avoid all non-essential travel. To have a more in-depth look at the long-term impact of the cyclone, have a look at our Travel Advisory on Cyclone Idai: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/cyclone-idai-kills-hundred-causes-long-term-humanitarian-crisis-south-eastern-africa/
Algeria: Algiers Army chief calls for President Bouteflika to be ruled unfit to govern Following weeks of unrest in the country following President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement that he’ll seek a fifth term as president in the now delayed April elections, the country’s army chief, General Ahmed Gaid Salah, has stated that the president should be declared unfit to rule. The announcement by the head of the country’s highly influential military is an important step in the crisis. In fact, despite the ongoing unrest, announcements that Bouteflika would not seek a fifth term and delays to the election, an actual resolution appeared out of reach. Overall, tensions appeared to be increasing and are sparking fears, both inside the country and in the international community, of a political crisis escalating into full-scale violence. However, while some hope for a new Arab Spring 2.0 in Algeria, it appears that the current situation has greater similarities to Egypt in 2013 when the military removed the Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi from the government. The military has put forward a suggested road map for the country to manage the transition following almost 20 years of Bouteflika rule. Simply replacing Bouteflika is unlikely to fully resolve the crisis, as the demonstrations have also been directed at the entire ruling elite – veterans of a long-since won independence war against France – plus, their allies in the army, businesses, legislature and unions. All these groups could lose significant influence through any succession; managed or not. However, it is understood that the country’s opposition has rejected the army chief’s proposed road map. Several opposition parties and protesters denounced the general’s remarks as an attempt to stifle their movement; even as a breakaway faction within Algeria’s ruling party, National Liberation Front (FLN) has backed the call. ADVICE: Travellers and businesses are advised to continue monitoring media sources and official announcements. The situation may escalate with little or no warning. Maintain flexible itineraries and be prepared to alter or cancel trips at short notice should tensions escalate. Additionally, be prepared for potential mobile network and internet outages.
Venezuela: Caracas Russian military personnel have arrived in Caracas to “discuss military cooperation” The members of the Russian military who have arrived in Caracas will not take part in any operations according to the Venezuelan military attaché in Moscow. Instead, it is being reported that the military personnel have been deployed to the country to discuss cooperation. President Donald Trump has stated that “Russia has to get out” whilst also hosting self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó’s wife Fabiana Rosales. According to media reports, two Russian air force planes landed outside of the capital on Sunday, 24 March, carrying nearly 100 troops. It is believed that the troops were special forces and include cyber experts. Russia has not directly commented on the troops but did state that unlike officials in Washington “Russia is not threatening anyone”. Solace Global Comment: The deployment of Russian military officials is likely an attempt by Russia to protect its investments in the country. Moscow has invested/lent/given billions of dollars in the past as well as playing an active role in joint ventures with the country’s oil industry. The deployment of troops is not a sign of an escalation at this time but may heighten tensions. ADVICE: Continue to avoid all travel to the country.
Tunisia: Tunis Arab League Summit set to be held in Tunis on 31 March Tunisia is set to host the 2019 Arab League summit at the Council of Arab Interior Ministers’ headquarters in the capital Tunis, on Sunday 31 March. Tunisian diplomats are hoping to play a mediating role in the summit, with the objective of projecting a unified opposition to President Trump’s recent acknowledgement of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. However, bitter rivalries remain amongst member states which are likely to be exposed during the talks. The Gulf states of Saudi Arabi and UAE are unlikely to express strong statements of condemnation in an effort to maintain good relations with the US – who are currently putting pressure on their main rival Iran. Moreover, member states have differing views over the current conflicts raging in Yemen and Syria, the latter remaining suspended from the league since the beginning of the uprising against Bashir Al Assad in 2011. Police and military personnel have been deployed across the city and security has been tightened at both land and sea borders in the run-up to the summit. Although no specific threats have been identified, the summit could be viewed as a high-profile target by terror organisations or as an opportunity to protest a multitude of issues affecting the region. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to expect heightened security in the city and to anticipate delays to journeys.
Turkey: Nationwide Turkey to increase security nationwide ahead of vital local elections on 31 March Turkey is set to elect mayors and local officials on 31 March in a race that is seen as a test for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party following last year’s crisis and the ongoing economic instability. These are the first elections since the 2018 presidential election, which saw the implementation of the major constitutional changes introduced through popular vote in 2017. The referendum made the president both the head of state and the head of government in Turkey; take over the latter role from the now-abolished role of the prime minister. As such, these elections are seen as a major test for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). The last regional elections in March 2014 resulted in the victory for the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), who won both Istanbul and Ankara. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) came second, winning control of İzmir, Turkey’s third largest city. The elections, including the presidential elections in 2018, carried accusations of electoral fraud and malpractice which sparked numerous protests nationwide. Turkey is preparing to increase security measure nationwide ahead of the election due to the risk of unrest but also due to the threat posed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Violence cannot be ruled out. ADVICE: Travellers should keep abreast of the latest information as there is the potential for protest action and counter-demonstrations during the campaign period of the local elections. These protests may also escalate into violent clashes in some areas; however, this risk remains low at this stage.
Ukraine: Nationwide First presidential election since Russian annexation of Crimea set to be held on 31 March Ukraine is set to hold its first presidential election on 31 March; with the second round of voting being carried out on 21 April if no candidate receives an absolute majority. There are 34,544,993 people are eligible to vote in the elections; however, roughly 12 per cent of the eligible voters will not be able to participate due to the annexation of Crimea by Russia as well as the continued separatist occupation of eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. By barring a number of voters due to the occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in the east of the country, Russian leaning candidates are highly unlikely to gain much ground in the election. Indeed, the main Russia-leaning candidate, Yuriy Boyko, is currently polling fourth behind former comedian Volodymyr Zelensky, current President Petro Poroshenko and Pro-EU politician Yulia Tymoshenko. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while normal travel to the majority of Ukraine can continue, a heightened security presence and police checkpoints should be expected. Monitor all official announcements and the latest media reports for further information regarding the elections and the security situation. If possible, as a precaution, consider deferring travel this weekend (30 March- 1 April) in order to minimise potential risk to travel. Russian travellers should ensure they have adequate documentation justifying their journeys and should also be prepared for entry being barred. Travel to the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk and to the disputed Crimea should be avoided and is banned to all except those with a specific purpose (journalists, aid workers or other non-governmental organisational workers). Additionally, travel to Russian controlled Crimea may later impede travel to Ukraine and vice-versa.
Significant Dates & Events
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Unrest |
| 29 March | United Kingdom | Brexit (Delayed) | LOW |
| 29 March | Central African Republic | Barthelemy Boganda Day | LOW |
| 29 March | Chile | Day of the Young Combatant | LOW |
| 29 March | Madagascar | Martyrs’ Day | LOW |
| 29 March | Israel/Palestine | Anniversary of March of Return | SEVERE |
| 30 March | Israel | Land Day | MODERATE |
| 30 March | Slovakia | Presidential Run-Off Election | LOW |
| 30 March | Trinidad and Tobago | Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day | LOW |
| 31 March | Ukraine | First Round of Presidential Election | MODERATE |
| 31 March | Turkey | Legislative Elections | LOW |
| 31 March | Tunis | Arab League Summit | LOW |
| 1 April | Benin | Youth Day | LOW |
| 1 April | Iran | Islamic Republic Day | MODERATE |
| 1 April | Cyprus | Cyprus: Greek Cypriot National Day | LOW |
| 2 April | Argentina | Veterans Day / Sovereignty Day / Malvinas Day | LOW |
| 3 April | Guinea | Anniversary of the Second Republic | LOW |
| 4 April | Senegal | Independence Day | LOW |
| 5 April | China & Taiwan | Qingming Festival | LOW |
| 6 April | Thailand | Chakri Memorial Day | LOW |
| 7 April | Rwanda | Genocide memorial and National Mourning Day | LOW |
Global Security Forecast: Week 12 2019
Netherlands: Utrecht
At least three people killed following suspected terrorist shooting on tram; suspects confesses
On 18 March, Turkish born Gokmen Tanis opened fire on a tram in the Dutch city of Utrecht. The tram was located at 24 Octoberplein when the incident occurred and stopped in the middle of a road junction. Three people were killed in the attack with a further seven hospitalised. The assailant fled the scene following the attack with police quick to respond; effectively locking down the city. Three of those wounded remain in a critical condition following the attack
Police stated that they suspected a terrorist motive and, on Friday, 22 March, prosecutors reiterated this suspicion. It is also believed that a letter in the hijacked vehicle that the suspect left supports this hypothesis. However, investigations are also stated to see if this terrorist motive was “combined” with any personal problems. According to people who knew the perpetrator, he suffered from drug and alcohol addiction and was, at times, “insane”. However, contrary to this, others stated that he preached righteousness and was a pious Muslim on certain days and drunk or drugged the next day. He also had a verdict pending on a rape case and had been arrested for shoplifting and illegal firearms possession.
Another man, believed to be in his 40s, was reportedly arrested by police on 19 March.
ADVICE: Acts of terrorism are not uncommon in Europe. Travellers should also expect heightened security in Utrecht and the rest of the country.
Mozambique: Beira Widespread destruction as majority of Beira is submerged following Cyclone Idai On 14 March, Cyclone Idai hit the port city of Beira in Mozambique, before proceeding inland and impacting the neighbouring countries of Zimbabwe and Malawi. The storm was followed by several days of rainfall that caused extreme flooding in most of central Mozambique and forming what have been defined as “inland oceans”. There are also significant shortages in food, water, fuel and medicine. While relief operations are ongoing, the disaster is likely to have severe medium- and long-term consequences that might trigger a region-wide humanitarian crisis The cyclone, which is being termed the worst weather-related disaster in the southern hemisphere, has affected 2.6 million people and caused critical damage to the majority of structures, including houses, roads, bridges and powerlines in the region. The heavy rains that followed the cyclone have resulted in heavy flooding, with rising water levels causing both additional infrastructural damage and hindering the efforts to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of aid operations. Entire regions and towns have been left isolated, with inhabitants stranded on rooftops and trees, making it challenging to deliver aid and locate survivors due to a complete failure in the communication infrastructure. There are currently severe shortages in food, water, fuel and medicine, which has put a strain on operations in the region. According to the World Food Program (WFP), these are not expected to be resolved in the short term and the power grid is not expected to be restored before at least April. Although an accurate assessment of the damage and death toll is still unclear, this has been rated as the worst weather-related disaster in the southern hemisphere. To date, approximately 217 victims have been confirmed in Mozambique, 139 in Zimbabwe and 56 in Malawi. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to avoid non-essential travel to the region. Furthermore, expect significant disruption to both transport in the region and the medical, electrical and communication infrastructure in the affected countries. To read more, see our latest travel advisory: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/cyclone-idai-kills-hundred-causes-long-term-humanitarian-crisis-south-eastern-africa/
Iraq: Mosul Almost 100 people have died after a ferry sank in the Tigris River At least 19 children and 61 women were among the 94 people that are reported to have died following the sinking of a ferry in the Tigris near Mosul. According to media reports, 55 people were rescued from the water with around 200 people thought to be aboard the vessel. The ferry was heading towards a tourist island, Umm Rabaen island, as part of new year celebrations. The vessel is understood to have turned sharply and tilted sharply to the right before taking on water. It then flipped over entirely and was caught in the strong currents of the river. The ferry was reportedly overloaded for the journey and following the tilting and the inundation of water; the vessel began to sink. Authorities had reportedly warned people about rising water levels as the gates of the Mosul dam had been opened, and some are accusing the ship operator of ignoring the advice. ADVICE: Travellers should not take ferries in Iraq; safety standards are considered poor. Additionally, vessels often operate overcapacity and perform unsafe manoeuvres; as demonstrated by the recent incident. In general, public transport throughout the country should be avoided with only pre-booked security vetted transport being used.
China: Yangcheng Large explosion in a chemical plant in eastern China kills 47 On Friday 22 March in the early morning, China suffered one of the worst industrial accident in recent times, when a chemical factory in the city of Yangcheng in Jiangsu province. The blast killed 47 and injured 90, severely damaging factory structures and building within a 3km radius. People living in the vicinity of the site have been moved due to fears of additional blasts or leaks. Industrial incidents are considered relatively common in China, where health and safety standard can be poorly enforced at times, despite the government’s efforts to reduce their number. In November 2018, for instance, an explosion close to a chemical industry in northern China killed 23 people and injured 22. ADVICE: Travellers should avoid the affected area, while remaining aware of the polluting effects of the chemical smokes released by the explosion. Emergency services and hospitals are likely to have slower response times due to the facilities being overloaded with those affected by the blast.
Kazakhstan: Astana (renamed Nursultan) President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his resignation In a statement, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his resignation after almost three decades in office. Nazarbayev has been in office since 24 April 1990 when he was elected as the nation’s first president following its independence from the Soviet Union. Speaker of the Senate Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev will fulfil the duties of the President of the country before the elections. As Kazakstan’s first president he was granted the right to run an unlimited amount of times and in the 2015 election, he won 97.7 percent of the vote. While the reason for the resignation is unclear, many believe the decision is designed to strengthen the president’s legacy. It is also unclear whether Nazarbaev, who is now 78, would take another position. In honour of the outgoing president, the capital, Astana, has been renamed Nursultan. ADVICE: Travellers in the country are advised to be aware that there may be rallies in support of the president which may result in disruption. At this time, it is unlikely that any instability or unrest will occur; however, media sources and further Solace Secure alerts should be monitored in case instability results from the announcement.
Venezuela: Caracas Venezuelan agents detain and search homes of Guaido’s aide On 21 March, Venezuelan intelligence agents detained Roberto Marrero, chief of staff to opposition leader Juan Guaido. Marrero was accused of planning acts of sabotage against officials and was detained following an operation to dismantle a terrorist cell. Moreover, authorities stated that weapons were discovered by Venezuelan agents during a raid on his home. Guaido responded to these accusations claiming that the items allegedly found had been planted. Marrero’s detention has provoked international disapproval leading to a number of governments to condemn these acts and to demand his immediate release. Local sources reported that the home of Guaido’s attorney, Sergio Vergara, was also searched, however, he was not taken into custody nor charged. This event follows Guaido’s involvement in a power struggle with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, currently facing international pressure to resign amid an escalating economic and humanitarian crisis. Supporters of political leader Juan Guaido’s are likely to stage protests following the arrest. ADVICE: Protests in Venezuela are currently violent and have led to a significant deterioration of the security environment. In relation to this, on 22 March, American Airlines suspended their flights to Venezuela, citing the ongoing political unrest. For this reason, all non-essential travel to Venezuela should be avoided and travellers in-country should review their evacuation options. Consular services are not available in parts of Venezuela and food, water and fuel shortages have been reported.
Europe: Brussels European Union agrees a conditional Brexit extension Media reporting indicates that The European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit process. Should UK Prime Minister Theresa May succeed in getting Members of Parliament to back her withdrawal agreement, the process will be extended until 22 May in order for supplementary legislation to pass parliament. However, should MPs reject the agreement, the extension will last only until 12 April. The UK had previously been due to leave the EU on 29 March. Media reporting indicates that The European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit process. Should UK Prime Minister Theresa May succeed in getting Members of Parliament to back her withdrawal agreement, the process will be extended until 22 May in order for supplementary legislation to pass parliament. However, should MPs reject the agreement, the extension will last only until 12 April. The UK had previously been due to leave the EU on 29 March. ADVICE: Preparations for a no-deal Brexit are unclear, businesses and travellers should make preparations as a contingency.
Pakistan: Nationwide Pakistan Day celebrations likely on 23 March Pakistan day is due to be celebrated nationwide on 23 March. Vehicle access to certain areas of Islamabad will be restricted between 19-23 March for military preparations a parade. Road closures and detours are expected to be in effect for this period. Heightened security is likely in response to the persistent terrorist threat in Pakistan. There is a possibility of celebratory gunfire in rural areas. ADVICE: Travellers are strongly advised to avoid large public gatherings in Pakistan. Travellers should also monitor local media for updates regarding road closures in Islamabad and other major Pakistani cities. If in the vicinity of celebratory gunfire, travellers are advised to seek hard cover for at least 15 minutes after the last gunshot.
Thailand: Nationwide Elections in Thailand are set to take place on 24 March after five years of military rule. Bangkok is set to hold its first democratic elections since the 2014 military coup d’état that followed the previous electoral process and subsequent violent confrontation in the streets. The campaigning started in December 2018 and followed the historical political divide between conservative pro-junta forces and populist ones, although politically-motivated insurgency seems to have significantly subsided over the past years. However, tensions in the country are still a source of concern, as popular desire for free and fair democratic elections has been frustrated by repeated delays of the election dates and the decision to outlaw a newly formed opposition party due to its candidacy of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Barnavadi. The new constitution, introduced in 2017 and heavily favouring the ruling military junta, has also been perceived as an attempt to prevent any significant gain by the opposition forces, which have won every election since 2001 only to be overthrown by the military establishment. The latest polls show that most of the population will vote in favour of the democratic anti-military parties and a skewed election may frustrate the voting population and lead to episodes of civil unrest, in which case military retaliation is to be expected. However, due to historical precedents, it is also possible that the Thai population would accept a pro-establishment government in order to prevent further political repression and, in the most extreme scenario, another coup. ADVICE: Travellers in Thailand should keep up to date with local news and expect episode of unrest or friction at polling stations, especially in the nation’s capital. There is also a chance that the highly symbolic election and large gatherings could be targeted by terrorist action, so anticipate heightened security at public venues and exercise increased vigilance. Travellers should also avoid discussing the political situation and openly criticise the military junta or the monarchy, as it might be considered a crime.
Israel/Palestine: Gaza and West Bank One-year anniversary of the “March of Return”; violent protests expected Next Friday will be the anniversary of the start of the “Great March of Return” protests in Gaza. Since protests began on 30 March 2018, Israeli forces have killed at least 214 Palestinians and wounded more than 18,000. The next demonstration coincides with Land Day, which commemorates the date in 1976 when Israel announced the seizure of thousands of dunams (a Middle Eastern measurement unit equivalent to around 1,000 square metres) of Palestinian land for “state purposes” and is recognised as a pivotal event in the struggle over land and in the relationship of Arab citizens to the Israeli state.’ According to media sources, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing for tens of thousands of Palestinians to gather along the Israel-Gaza border and will be deploying additional troops and heightening security. Furthermore, according to IDF assessments, Hamas will seek to surpass last years protests by transporting more than 50,000 people to the main protest points along the border fence. The anniversary comes as Hamas has suffered protests against themselves due to the frustrations of local Palestinians protesting over the conditions under Hamas rule. Thus far, Hamas has been able to control the unrest by either forcibly removing street protesters. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to expect heightened security throughout the West Bank and at all border checkpoints in the coming days and especially next Friday. Be aware that protests may occur throughout the West Bank and Israel with little or no warning and may result in clashes.
Mozambique: Beira Widespread destruction as majority of Beira is submerged following Cyclone Idai On 14 March, Cyclone Idai hit the port city of Beira in Mozambique, before proceeding inland and impacting the neighbouring countries of Zimbabwe and Malawi. The storm was followed by several days of rainfall that caused extreme flooding in most of central Mozambique and forming what have been defined as “inland oceans”. There are also significant shortages in food, water, fuel and medicine. While relief operations are ongoing, the disaster is likely to have severe medium- and long-term consequences that might trigger a region-wide humanitarian crisis The cyclone, which is being termed the worst weather-related disaster in the southern hemisphere, has affected 2.6 million people and caused critical damage to the majority of structures, including houses, roads, bridges and powerlines in the region. The heavy rains that followed the cyclone have resulted in heavy flooding, with rising water levels causing both additional infrastructural damage and hindering the efforts to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of aid operations. Entire regions and towns have been left isolated, with inhabitants stranded on rooftops and trees, making it challenging to deliver aid and locate survivors due to a complete failure in the communication infrastructure. There are currently severe shortages in food, water, fuel and medicine, which has put a strain on operations in the region. According to the World Food Program (WFP), these are not expected to be resolved in the short term and the power grid is not expected to be restored before at least April. Although an accurate assessment of the damage and death toll is still unclear, this has been rated as the worst weather-related disaster in the southern hemisphere. To date, approximately 217 victims have been confirmed in Mozambique, 139 in Zimbabwe and 56 in Malawi. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to avoid non-essential travel to the region. Furthermore, expect significant disruption to both transport in the region and the medical, electrical and communication infrastructure in the affected countries. To read more, see our latest travel advisory: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/cyclone-idai-kills-hundred-causes-long-term-humanitarian-crisis-south-eastern-africa/
Iraq: Mosul Almost 100 people have died after a ferry sank in the Tigris River At least 19 children and 61 women were among the 94 people that are reported to have died following the sinking of a ferry in the Tigris near Mosul. According to media reports, 55 people were rescued from the water with around 200 people thought to be aboard the vessel. The ferry was heading towards a tourist island, Umm Rabaen island, as part of new year celebrations. The vessel is understood to have turned sharply and tilted sharply to the right before taking on water. It then flipped over entirely and was caught in the strong currents of the river. The ferry was reportedly overloaded for the journey and following the tilting and the inundation of water; the vessel began to sink. Authorities had reportedly warned people about rising water levels as the gates of the Mosul dam had been opened, and some are accusing the ship operator of ignoring the advice. ADVICE: Travellers should not take ferries in Iraq; safety standards are considered poor. Additionally, vessels often operate overcapacity and perform unsafe manoeuvres; as demonstrated by the recent incident. In general, public transport throughout the country should be avoided with only pre-booked security vetted transport being used.
China: Yangcheng Large explosion in a chemical plant in eastern China kills 47 On Friday 22 March in the early morning, China suffered one of the worst industrial accident in recent times, when a chemical factory in the city of Yangcheng in Jiangsu province. The blast killed 47 and injured 90, severely damaging factory structures and building within a 3km radius. People living in the vicinity of the site have been moved due to fears of additional blasts or leaks. Industrial incidents are considered relatively common in China, where health and safety standard can be poorly enforced at times, despite the government’s efforts to reduce their number. In November 2018, for instance, an explosion close to a chemical industry in northern China killed 23 people and injured 22. ADVICE: Travellers should avoid the affected area, while remaining aware of the polluting effects of the chemical smokes released by the explosion. Emergency services and hospitals are likely to have slower response times due to the facilities being overloaded with those affected by the blast.
Kazakhstan: Astana (renamed Nursultan) President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his resignation In a statement, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced his resignation after almost three decades in office. Nazarbayev has been in office since 24 April 1990 when he was elected as the nation’s first president following its independence from the Soviet Union. Speaker of the Senate Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev will fulfil the duties of the President of the country before the elections. As Kazakstan’s first president he was granted the right to run an unlimited amount of times and in the 2015 election, he won 97.7 percent of the vote. While the reason for the resignation is unclear, many believe the decision is designed to strengthen the president’s legacy. It is also unclear whether Nazarbaev, who is now 78, would take another position. In honour of the outgoing president, the capital, Astana, has been renamed Nursultan. ADVICE: Travellers in the country are advised to be aware that there may be rallies in support of the president which may result in disruption. At this time, it is unlikely that any instability or unrest will occur; however, media sources and further Solace Secure alerts should be monitored in case instability results from the announcement.
Venezuela: Caracas Venezuelan agents detain and search homes of Guaido’s aide On 21 March, Venezuelan intelligence agents detained Roberto Marrero, chief of staff to opposition leader Juan Guaido. Marrero was accused of planning acts of sabotage against officials and was detained following an operation to dismantle a terrorist cell. Moreover, authorities stated that weapons were discovered by Venezuelan agents during a raid on his home. Guaido responded to these accusations claiming that the items allegedly found had been planted. Marrero’s detention has provoked international disapproval leading to a number of governments to condemn these acts and to demand his immediate release. Local sources reported that the home of Guaido’s attorney, Sergio Vergara, was also searched, however, he was not taken into custody nor charged. This event follows Guaido’s involvement in a power struggle with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, currently facing international pressure to resign amid an escalating economic and humanitarian crisis. Supporters of political leader Juan Guaido’s are likely to stage protests following the arrest. ADVICE: Protests in Venezuela are currently violent and have led to a significant deterioration of the security environment. In relation to this, on 22 March, American Airlines suspended their flights to Venezuela, citing the ongoing political unrest. For this reason, all non-essential travel to Venezuela should be avoided and travellers in-country should review their evacuation options. Consular services are not available in parts of Venezuela and food, water and fuel shortages have been reported.
Europe: Brussels European Union agrees a conditional Brexit extension Media reporting indicates that The European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit process. Should UK Prime Minister Theresa May succeed in getting Members of Parliament to back her withdrawal agreement, the process will be extended until 22 May in order for supplementary legislation to pass parliament. However, should MPs reject the agreement, the extension will last only until 12 April. The UK had previously been due to leave the EU on 29 March. Media reporting indicates that The European Union has agreed to extend the Brexit process. Should UK Prime Minister Theresa May succeed in getting Members of Parliament to back her withdrawal agreement, the process will be extended until 22 May in order for supplementary legislation to pass parliament. However, should MPs reject the agreement, the extension will last only until 12 April. The UK had previously been due to leave the EU on 29 March. ADVICE: Preparations for a no-deal Brexit are unclear, businesses and travellers should make preparations as a contingency.
Pakistan: Nationwide Pakistan Day celebrations likely on 23 March Pakistan day is due to be celebrated nationwide on 23 March. Vehicle access to certain areas of Islamabad will be restricted between 19-23 March for military preparations a parade. Road closures and detours are expected to be in effect for this period. Heightened security is likely in response to the persistent terrorist threat in Pakistan. There is a possibility of celebratory gunfire in rural areas. ADVICE: Travellers are strongly advised to avoid large public gatherings in Pakistan. Travellers should also monitor local media for updates regarding road closures in Islamabad and other major Pakistani cities. If in the vicinity of celebratory gunfire, travellers are advised to seek hard cover for at least 15 minutes after the last gunshot.
Thailand: Nationwide Elections in Thailand are set to take place on 24 March after five years of military rule. Bangkok is set to hold its first democratic elections since the 2014 military coup d’état that followed the previous electoral process and subsequent violent confrontation in the streets. The campaigning started in December 2018 and followed the historical political divide between conservative pro-junta forces and populist ones, although politically-motivated insurgency seems to have significantly subsided over the past years. However, tensions in the country are still a source of concern, as popular desire for free and fair democratic elections has been frustrated by repeated delays of the election dates and the decision to outlaw a newly formed opposition party due to its candidacy of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Barnavadi. The new constitution, introduced in 2017 and heavily favouring the ruling military junta, has also been perceived as an attempt to prevent any significant gain by the opposition forces, which have won every election since 2001 only to be overthrown by the military establishment. The latest polls show that most of the population will vote in favour of the democratic anti-military parties and a skewed election may frustrate the voting population and lead to episodes of civil unrest, in which case military retaliation is to be expected. However, due to historical precedents, it is also possible that the Thai population would accept a pro-establishment government in order to prevent further political repression and, in the most extreme scenario, another coup. ADVICE: Travellers in Thailand should keep up to date with local news and expect episode of unrest or friction at polling stations, especially in the nation’s capital. There is also a chance that the highly symbolic election and large gatherings could be targeted by terrorist action, so anticipate heightened security at public venues and exercise increased vigilance. Travellers should also avoid discussing the political situation and openly criticise the military junta or the monarchy, as it might be considered a crime.
Israel/Palestine: Gaza and West Bank One-year anniversary of the “March of Return”; violent protests expected Next Friday will be the anniversary of the start of the “Great March of Return” protests in Gaza. Since protests began on 30 March 2018, Israeli forces have killed at least 214 Palestinians and wounded more than 18,000. The next demonstration coincides with Land Day, which commemorates the date in 1976 when Israel announced the seizure of thousands of dunams (a Middle Eastern measurement unit equivalent to around 1,000 square metres) of Palestinian land for “state purposes” and is recognised as a pivotal event in the struggle over land and in the relationship of Arab citizens to the Israeli state.’ According to media sources, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing for tens of thousands of Palestinians to gather along the Israel-Gaza border and will be deploying additional troops and heightening security. Furthermore, according to IDF assessments, Hamas will seek to surpass last years protests by transporting more than 50,000 people to the main protest points along the border fence. The anniversary comes as Hamas has suffered protests against themselves due to the frustrations of local Palestinians protesting over the conditions under Hamas rule. Thus far, Hamas has been able to control the unrest by either forcibly removing street protesters. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to expect heightened security throughout the West Bank and at all border checkpoints in the coming days and especially next Friday. Be aware that protests may occur throughout the West Bank and Israel with little or no warning and may result in clashes.
SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 22 March | Laos | Day of the People’s Party | LOW |
| 22 March | Puerto Rico | Emancipation Day | LOW |
| 23 March | Pakistan | Pakistan Resolution Day | LOW |
| 24 March | Argentina | Truth and Justice Day | LOW |
| 25 March | Greece/Cyprus | Greek Independence Day | LOW |
| 26 March | Bangladesh | Bangladesh Independence Day | MODERATE |
| 26 March | Mali | Martyrs’ Day | MODERATE |
| 27 March | Myanmar | Armed Forces Day | LOW |
| 29 March | United Kingdom | Brexit (Delayed) | LOW |
| 29 March | Central African Republic | Barthelemy Boganda Day | LOW |
| 29 March | Chile | Day of the Young Combatant | LOW |
| 29 March | Madagascar | Martyrs’ Day | LOW |
| 29 March | Israel/Palestine | Anniversary of March of Return | SEVERE |
| 30 March | Israel | Land Day | MODERATE |
| 30 March | Slovakia | Presidential Run-Off Election | LOW |
| 30 March | Trinidad and Tobago | Spiritual Baptist Liberation Day | LOW |
Maritime Snapshot Weeks 11 & 12
Maritime Incidents in weeks 11 and 12
Americas 10 March: Attempted robbery in Macapa, Brazil Two robbers armed with knives boarded an anchored bulk carrier using a rope with a hook in Macapa Anchorage, Brazil. The duty AB on routine rounds spotted the robbers and immediately informed the OOW, who raised the alarm. PA announcement was made and all crew mustered. Seeing the alerted crew, the robbers escaped without stealing anything. The incident was reported to the Port Authorities.Gulf of Guinea 8 March: Vessel approached near Brass, Nigeria Underway tanker approached by two skiffs with 4 POB at 1502 UTC around 35nm SSE of Brass, Nigeria. One skiff closed to within 2 cables. Vessel conducted evasive manoeuvres resulting in skiffs moving away. 9 March: additional attack near Brass; possibly same pirates from an earlier attack Underway OSV attacked by two speedboats at 1550 UTC approximately 21nm SSE of Brass, Nigeria. Speedboats w/ 6 armed POB in each fired upon escorting security vessel. Unconfirmed reports stated several pirates and one security personnel killed. Pirates in the second speedboat reportedly boarded OSV. Vessel and crew are safe at Bonny Anchorage.
Kidnapping in the Gulf of Guinea 9 March: Vessel and escort attacked near Brass, Nigeria Pirates armed with machine guns in two speedboats approached an underway offshore support vessel at 1115 UTC around 32nm SE of Brass. The captain immediately notified the naval escort security boat which manoeuvred to engage the attackers. One speed boat closed in from the port side of the vessel and crossed the bow, while the other speed boat exchanged fire with the security boat. The alarm raised, the crew also proceeded to the engine room and all power was shut down. The pirates boarded the vessel with the aid of an elongated ladder. They broke into the accommodation, vandalised the cabins and took crew belongings and vessel properties. The pirates then proceeded to the engine room, kidnapped five men and escaped. The remaining crew sailed the OSV under escort to a safe anchorage. One Nigerian Navy armed guard was reported killed in the exchange of fire between the naval security boat and the pirates.
Indian Ocean & HRA 20 March: Well known Somali pirate killed in Mugug region A well known Somali pirate has reportedly been killed in Golfula district, Mudug region. Ahmed Mohamud (50) used to be a high profile leader in Somali piracy and, according to sources, was assassinated two days ago after leaving Hobyo city heading for the city of Galkayo. According to eyewitnesses, Mohamud was abducted by unknown gunmen prior to his assassination. It is believed that the former pirate was in the area trying to recruit a new generation of pirates in the region.
A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week
Changes to the High Risk Area in the Indian Ocean announced; measure to come into effect 1 May 2019 (map to the right) The Round Table of international shipping associations, as well as the OCIMF, who represent the global shipping and oil industry have announced that the geographic boundaries of the ‘High Risk Area’ (HRA) for piracy in the Indian Ocean will be reduced starting from 1 May. Additionally, there will be new advice issued to merchant ship operators. The reduction of the HRA reflects the ongoing containment of the threat from pirate attacks in the region. Despite the reduction, the shipping associations have urged that vigilance and adherence to the 5th edition of the best management practice to deter piracy (BMP5) remains vital to the long term success in the region. The threat of pirate attack off the coast of Somalia, as well as terrorist inspired piracy in the Gulf of Aden, remain possible. According to officials, the reduction in the HRA has been made whilst taking into account pirate intent, the capability of the navies operating in the region and crucially the merchant shipping industry. Indeed, the decision was only made after extensive consultations with military forces in the region, including Combined Maritime Forces, EUNAVFOR and the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which continue to provide vital advice and protection to shipping. This is the second reduction, after the one to the current limits in 2015, and does not change the advice for vessels travelling through the Gulf of Aden or to/from the Red Sea. The Voluntary Reporting Area (VRA). Additionally, Ships entering the VRA will still be encouraged to register with the Maritime Security Centre for the Horn of Africa (MSCHOA) and report to the United Kingdom Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO). Despite the reduction, the threat of pirate attacks do continue and shipping companies should continue to maintain full compliance with BMP5. Additionally, the industry associations will adjust the HRA again if the situation warrants it. www.Oceanuslive.org Somali troops have withdrawn from villages on outskirts of Mogadishu Numerous Somali troops have withdrawn from their posts in Mahadaay, Jowar and other villages over unpaid salaries and lack of rations. The withdrawals have allowed Al Shabaab militants to capture the vacated bases and villages; causing them to move within closer range of the capital. Should the withdrawals continue, the outskirt areas of Mogadishu may come into range of mortar fire. This includes the airport and the UN compound. These gains by militants have been coupled with the African Union’s UN mission withdrawing or looking to withdraw troops from the country. This has left the Somali military the sole line of defence in some areas. Should the lack of pay and rations continue; then the depleted African Union troops may be targeted by Al Shabaab attacks; testing strength and defences in the Mogadishu area. All non-essential foreign staff will likely be evacuated in response to any further deterioration of the security environment. However, no official sources are reporting this at this time. Should Mogadishu come under siege, or direct attack, the maritime threat in the region will rise significantly: Al Shabaab disruptive actions will impact international trade and fishermen whose livelihoods have been destroyed will likely turn to piracy. Iranian naval forces are arresting Chinese fishing poachers The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Naval Command have issued an official statement on Chinese fishing vessels who have been violating the terms of the 2011 fisheries agreement between Tehran and Beijing. According to the statement, the Chinese vessels have been “poaching” in the waters of Southern Iran, including in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Several Chinese fishing vessels have reportedly been detained as a result of the poaching and Iran is now considering a ban on foreign vessels in Iranian waters. Along with fishing vessels, a reefer, possibly the KOOSHA 3, was detained with holds full of frozen fish allegedly collected from Chinese fishing vessels.Global Security Forecast: Week 11 2019
Ethiopia: Addis Ababa
Ethiopian Airlines 737 crashes en route to Nairobi; 737 MAX aircraft grounded globally as a result of the crash
An Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 has crashed whilst en route to Nairobi, Kenya. The location of the crash is, as yet, unconfirmed. It is likely that hundreds of lives have been lost. An investigation and recovery effort are underway.
As a result of the incident, which is the second for the new Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, all 737 MAX aircraft have now been ground indefinitely until the cause for the accidents is found. The groundings do not affect older 737 and the impact on airlines has been limited. It is likely the aircraft will be grounded at least until the cause of the Ethiopian Airlines crash is determined.
ADIVCE: The impact of the groundings of such a new aircraft have been limited. Most airlines only have a handful of the aircraft type, this has meant that flight schedules have been unaltered. Travellers are advised to contact their airline for advice regarding their itinerary.
New Zealand: Christchurch Terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch on 15 March At around 13:40 local time at least three shooters entered two mosques in Christchurch New Zealand. As a result of the attacks, at least 49 people are said to have been killed. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has stated that the attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, can only be described as a terrorist attack. She has also stated that it appears that there was a high degree of planning by the perpetrators. To read more, see our latest travel advisory
Algeria: Nationwide Protest continue as president states he will not stand for fifth term; but delays election Protests are continuing in Algeria despite President Abdelaziz Bouteflika stating he will not run for a fifth term in office. The protesters are demanding that the president resigns from office immediately and that the elections are held as planned in April. To read more, see our latest travel advisory
Venezuela: Nationwide Large protests in Caracas as blackout continues Nationwide blackouts continue after power was restored to parts of Caracas and other areas around the country. According to media reports, traffic lights are functioning in some areas the capital, but the metro system remains closed. Some areas have been without electricity for over 48 hours and the blackout is affecting healthcare facilities. Internet monitoring organisations also reported that 96 percent of the country is without access to mobile telecommunication networks after the most recent power outage. On the 9 March rival protests were held in different parts of Caracas to support Maduro or Guaido who both claim the Presidency. There were a number of scuffles with police and several injured. Mr Guaido, who leads the opposition controlled National Assembly, has been recognised as interim president by more than 50 countries. However, Mr Maduro retains the support of the military and close allies including Russia and China. The continuing blackout is only heightening tensions. ADVICE: Individuals in Venezuela are advised to monitor the political situation and to avoid all public demonstrations due to the risk of violence and arrest. Due to the tense political situation, local security officials have enhanced measures to enforce the rule of law. It is recommended to adhere to instructions, such as curfews and identity checks, and avoid open criticism of the current government or its officials. Due to the ongoing risk of instability, it is advised to leave the country as soon as possible.
United Kingdom: Nationwide The IRA has claimed responsibility for the recent parcel bombs in London and Glasgow A group, calling itself the IRA, has claimed responsibility for the parcel bombs sent to London transport hubs and the University of Glasgow last week. A spokesperson from the Metropolitan Police announced that the group has claimed to have sent five devices, of which only four have been detected. Police investigations into the parcel bombs are ongoing. ADVICE: Further suspicious items are possible in the coming days and weeks. Travellers are advised that if in the vicinity of the suspicious item, not to touch or inspect it, report the item to a member of staff, security personnel, or the authorities, informing them of the exact location of the device. Adhere to all police instructions.
United Kingdom: Westminster British government votes to delay Brexit Members of the UK House of Commons have rejected an altered Brexit withdrawal agreement that had been brought before them by Prime Minister Theresa May by a margin of 149 votes. It was judged that the Prime Minister had failed to make sufficient changes to the withdrawal agreement that was rejected in January 2019. The vote was followed by a series of votes, including whether to pursue a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit. Both of which were rejected. As such Britain now must wait to see if the EU accepts the delay. ADVICE: Protests are likely in the coming weeks, both if Britain is granted a delay and if the country is forced to leave without a deal. It remains highly likely that political change will occur with a general election, second referendum or continued stalemate all equally possible.
Brazil: Sao Paulo School shooting resulted in eight deaths in Suzano, Sao Paulo, on 13 March Two former pupils are understood to have carried out a school shooting in Suzano, near Sao Paulo, on Wednesday 13 March. The two males reportedly fired indiscriminately at students and teachers. Military police and emergency services attended the scene, the perpetrators are reported to have committed suicide before being apprehended. In total, five pupils, a school administrator and a teacher were killed before the two perpetrators killed themselves. The two attackers had been close friends since childhood and used to spend a lot of time together playing video games and were often seen at a local gaming arcade. Earlier in the day, the two attackers had shot dead the younger one’s uncle. A state official said the younger gunman “had never shown any problems” at school; however, it is believed that he, and possibly the older attacker, had been bullied at the school. ADVICE: Crime rates and gang related crime is high in Brazil; however, incidents of this nature are uncommon. Travellers are advised to be aware of their surroundings and ensure they adhere,
Israel: Tel Aviv Multiple long-range rockets launched at Tel Aviv Local reports suggest at least two long-range rockets have been fired at the Tel Aviv metropolitan area from Gaza. Warning sirens were activated prior to the attack, in which no casualties or damage has been reported. One of the missiles was reportedly destroyed by Tel Aviv’s ‘Iron Dome’ defence system, the other landed in the Mediterranean Sea. This is the first attack of this kind since 2014, Hamas has denied responsibility. Israel has carried out air strikes in the port west area of Khan Younis in response to the rocket attacks. Up to 100 retaliatory attacks have been launched across Gaza, targeting Hamas sites and Islamic Jihad. ADVICE: Travellers in Tel Aviv should ensure they are familiar with what actions to take in the event warning sirens are activated. Travellers should seek shelter and remain there for at least ten minutes upon hearing sirens.
India: Nationwide Holi Festival 20-21 March The celebration of the Holi festival will be held across India on 20-21 March, attracting visitors worldwide for its colourful celebratory powders and the nationwide celebrations. Generally, the scale of the event and the number of participants, it is important for visitors to pay attention to crowd movements, which have caused incidents before. Crimes such as pickpocketing are also fairly common during the festival. However, the biggest risks are faced by female participants to the festival, as the celebration is often used as an excuse for harassment, which reportedly skyrockets during the days of the festival, from groping to rape and to the point where it has been reported that young women were targeted by “semen-filled balloons”. Men are also known to consume a cannabis-derived liquid and harassing women, especially in big groups. ADVICE: Female travellers should exercise extreme caution if celebrating the festival, either in Delhi or elsewhere, and avoid going to the celebrations alone. It is advised for foreigners to celebrate in groups, exercise vigilance and keep an eye on their belonging. If approached by groups of intoxicated individuals, travellers should avoid confrontation and seek the assistance of local law enforcement. Women should avoid larger gatherings and stick to familiar surroundings, as well as respect avoid leaving their hotel after dark.
United States: Washington DC Trump – Bolsonaro Summit 17-20 March Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Washington DC early next week, in it first bilateral summit with the United States since taking office since 1 January 2019. Brazil and the US being the biggest economies in the Americas and both Presidents having run on a populist and conservative platform, there is a great curiosity in whether the summit will result in a new entente between the two countries, which could greatly impact the region. Among the most pressing topics to be discussed are certainly the Venezuela crisis – both nations recognised Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela – , trade and the role that Washington is going to play in the region moving ahead. To read more please see https://www.solaceglobal.com//wp-content/uploads/2019/03/20190308-Global-Security-Forecast-Week-11.pd
New Zealand: Christchurch Terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch on 15 March At around 13:40 local time at least three shooters entered two mosques in Christchurch New Zealand. As a result of the attacks, at least 49 people are said to have been killed. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has stated that the attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, can only be described as a terrorist attack. She has also stated that it appears that there was a high degree of planning by the perpetrators. To read more, see our latest travel advisory
Algeria: Nationwide Protest continue as president states he will not stand for fifth term; but delays election Protests are continuing in Algeria despite President Abdelaziz Bouteflika stating he will not run for a fifth term in office. The protesters are demanding that the president resigns from office immediately and that the elections are held as planned in April. To read more, see our latest travel advisory
Venezuela: Nationwide Large protests in Caracas as blackout continues Nationwide blackouts continue after power was restored to parts of Caracas and other areas around the country. According to media reports, traffic lights are functioning in some areas the capital, but the metro system remains closed. Some areas have been without electricity for over 48 hours and the blackout is affecting healthcare facilities. Internet monitoring organisations also reported that 96 percent of the country is without access to mobile telecommunication networks after the most recent power outage. On the 9 March rival protests were held in different parts of Caracas to support Maduro or Guaido who both claim the Presidency. There were a number of scuffles with police and several injured. Mr Guaido, who leads the opposition controlled National Assembly, has been recognised as interim president by more than 50 countries. However, Mr Maduro retains the support of the military and close allies including Russia and China. The continuing blackout is only heightening tensions. ADVICE: Individuals in Venezuela are advised to monitor the political situation and to avoid all public demonstrations due to the risk of violence and arrest. Due to the tense political situation, local security officials have enhanced measures to enforce the rule of law. It is recommended to adhere to instructions, such as curfews and identity checks, and avoid open criticism of the current government or its officials. Due to the ongoing risk of instability, it is advised to leave the country as soon as possible.
United Kingdom: Nationwide The IRA has claimed responsibility for the recent parcel bombs in London and Glasgow A group, calling itself the IRA, has claimed responsibility for the parcel bombs sent to London transport hubs and the University of Glasgow last week. A spokesperson from the Metropolitan Police announced that the group has claimed to have sent five devices, of which only four have been detected. Police investigations into the parcel bombs are ongoing. ADVICE: Further suspicious items are possible in the coming days and weeks. Travellers are advised that if in the vicinity of the suspicious item, not to touch or inspect it, report the item to a member of staff, security personnel, or the authorities, informing them of the exact location of the device. Adhere to all police instructions.
United Kingdom: Westminster British government votes to delay Brexit Members of the UK House of Commons have rejected an altered Brexit withdrawal agreement that had been brought before them by Prime Minister Theresa May by a margin of 149 votes. It was judged that the Prime Minister had failed to make sufficient changes to the withdrawal agreement that was rejected in January 2019. The vote was followed by a series of votes, including whether to pursue a second referendum or a No Deal Brexit. Both of which were rejected. As such Britain now must wait to see if the EU accepts the delay. ADVICE: Protests are likely in the coming weeks, both if Britain is granted a delay and if the country is forced to leave without a deal. It remains highly likely that political change will occur with a general election, second referendum or continued stalemate all equally possible.
Brazil: Sao Paulo School shooting resulted in eight deaths in Suzano, Sao Paulo, on 13 March Two former pupils are understood to have carried out a school shooting in Suzano, near Sao Paulo, on Wednesday 13 March. The two males reportedly fired indiscriminately at students and teachers. Military police and emergency services attended the scene, the perpetrators are reported to have committed suicide before being apprehended. In total, five pupils, a school administrator and a teacher were killed before the two perpetrators killed themselves. The two attackers had been close friends since childhood and used to spend a lot of time together playing video games and were often seen at a local gaming arcade. Earlier in the day, the two attackers had shot dead the younger one’s uncle. A state official said the younger gunman “had never shown any problems” at school; however, it is believed that he, and possibly the older attacker, had been bullied at the school. ADVICE: Crime rates and gang related crime is high in Brazil; however, incidents of this nature are uncommon. Travellers are advised to be aware of their surroundings and ensure they adhere,
Israel: Tel Aviv Multiple long-range rockets launched at Tel Aviv Local reports suggest at least two long-range rockets have been fired at the Tel Aviv metropolitan area from Gaza. Warning sirens were activated prior to the attack, in which no casualties or damage has been reported. One of the missiles was reportedly destroyed by Tel Aviv’s ‘Iron Dome’ defence system, the other landed in the Mediterranean Sea. This is the first attack of this kind since 2014, Hamas has denied responsibility. Israel has carried out air strikes in the port west area of Khan Younis in response to the rocket attacks. Up to 100 retaliatory attacks have been launched across Gaza, targeting Hamas sites and Islamic Jihad. ADVICE: Travellers in Tel Aviv should ensure they are familiar with what actions to take in the event warning sirens are activated. Travellers should seek shelter and remain there for at least ten minutes upon hearing sirens.
India: Nationwide Holi Festival 20-21 March The celebration of the Holi festival will be held across India on 20-21 March, attracting visitors worldwide for its colourful celebratory powders and the nationwide celebrations. Generally, the scale of the event and the number of participants, it is important for visitors to pay attention to crowd movements, which have caused incidents before. Crimes such as pickpocketing are also fairly common during the festival. However, the biggest risks are faced by female participants to the festival, as the celebration is often used as an excuse for harassment, which reportedly skyrockets during the days of the festival, from groping to rape and to the point where it has been reported that young women were targeted by “semen-filled balloons”. Men are also known to consume a cannabis-derived liquid and harassing women, especially in big groups. ADVICE: Female travellers should exercise extreme caution if celebrating the festival, either in Delhi or elsewhere, and avoid going to the celebrations alone. It is advised for foreigners to celebrate in groups, exercise vigilance and keep an eye on their belonging. If approached by groups of intoxicated individuals, travellers should avoid confrontation and seek the assistance of local law enforcement. Women should avoid larger gatherings and stick to familiar surroundings, as well as respect avoid leaving their hotel after dark.
United States: Washington DC Trump – Bolsonaro Summit 17-20 March Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will visit Washington DC early next week, in it first bilateral summit with the United States since taking office since 1 January 2019. Brazil and the US being the biggest economies in the Americas and both Presidents having run on a populist and conservative platform, there is a great curiosity in whether the summit will result in a new entente between the two countries, which could greatly impact the region. Among the most pressing topics to be discussed are certainly the Venezuela crisis – both nations recognised Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela – , trade and the role that Washington is going to play in the region moving ahead. To read more please see https://www.solaceglobal.com//wp-content/uploads/2019/03/20190308-Global-Security-Forecast-Week-11.pd
The Impact of the 737 MAX Groundings
On 10 March, a Boeing 737 MAX 8 lost contact six minutes after departing from Bole International Airport in the Ethiopian capital, heading to Nairobi. All 157 passengers and crew aboard the Ethiopian Airline flight were killed when the plane crashed south of the town of Bishoftu.
This incident comes after the same model, operated by Lion Air, crashed into the Java Sea after leaving Jakarta. The two accidents in quick succession and the noted similarity between them has led to, on 11 and 12 March, several countries and airlines grounding their fleet of Boeing 737 MAXs due to safety concerns.
Aviation regulators in China, Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore, Argentina, UK, Norway and Australia have suspended flights as a precautionary measure. Other countries that have announced a suspension on some Boeing 737 Max 8 planes are; Brazil, Cayman Islands, Ethiopia, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, South Africa and South Korea. Initial figures show that nearly 40 percent of the fleet of 371 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft worldwide are grounded.
A spokesman for the UK Civil Aviation Authority stated that this is a precautionary measure and that they are in contact with industry regulators to seek the best course of action. The UK’s suspension affects TUI Airways who have five Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft based in the UK. The other leading operator of this aircraft type flying out of the UK is Norwegian Air Shuttle, which has 18 aircraft. Norwegian Airlines, themselves, issued instructions to stop flights until further notice.
However, several airlines in America have continued operating the aircraft. Southwest Airlines, the largest 737 MAX 8 operator, remains confident in the safety of its entire fleet. In a statement, the airline said, “We have been in contact with Boeing and will continue to stay close to the investigation as it progresses.”
Initial reports suggest that the suspension is expected to last until a risk assessment is conducted on Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes. The Boeing Company issued a statement claiming that, at present, they will not issue new guidance to operators.
Going forward
It is unclear how long the aircrafts will remain grounded as there is not sufficient data on the cause of the accident. This means that cancellations, delays and other travel-related disruptions are anticipated. A number of other airlines have stated that they are monitoring the situation and therefore further bans may still be issued. So far minimal disruptions have been experienced with two Istanbul to London Gatwick flights being turned around during flight to return to Istanbul. Boeing have a large fleet of planes and it is likely that flights will continue with replacement aircrafts. Travellers should continue to check their itinerary and consult with their travel provider or airline official to check the status of their flight.
Despite the groundings, the fact that the 737 MAX is a new aircraft, airlines only have them in limited numbers. This has limited the impact of the groundings on airlines. Additionally, the regular, older 737s remain in use. Various models of these planes have been flying since 1967 and the aircraft has one of the best safety records among modern aircraft. Airlines and Boeing take safety extremely seriously, travellers should not be concerned regardless of what aircraft they are flying.
Global Security Forecast: Week 10 2019
Algeria: Nationwide
Anti-government protests underway nationwide
Demonstrations against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement to run for a fifth term in office have organised nationwide. Protests have been out on the streets of Algiers, centred mainly outside the Universities of Bejaia and Bouira. Large crowds and limited scenes of unrest and even clashes were also reported in Oran, Constantine, Setif, Tizi Ouzou, and Bouira.
As a result of the widespread protests, there has been significant disruptions to travel and services. In Algiers, public transportation services were suspended and the Algiers Metro was closed. Demonstrations in Algeria are banned. It has been reported that on 1 March, at least 100 people were wounded in clashes between protesters and police across the country. There is a heightened security presence across the country, particularly surrounding demonstrations. The country’s military has also condemned the unrest and called for a halt to the protests.
ADVICE: Demonstrations in Algeria are banned; anticipate a heightened security presence near demonstration sites. Current protests are known to turn violent with little notice; further clashes between protesters and police cannot be ruled out. Travellers are advised to continue to monitor the political situation. Businesses and travellers should now start looking ahead and considering altering travel arrangements in the build-up to the election should unrest continue.
South Korea: Nationwide North Korea has condemned the joint US – South Korea military drills in the region On Thursday, 7 March, North Korea denounced the ongoing joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington as an “all out challenge” to moves towards peace on the Korean peninsula. The US and South Korea had agreed on Sunday to replace two major war games that take place every spring, known as the “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills”, with a shorter “Dong Maeng” or “Alliance” exercise. The joint drills commenced this week and involve tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers and a large number of the 30,000 US troops posted in South Korea. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while the likelihood of a conflict remains remote, international incidents or accidental clashes between the opposing militaries may result in an increase in tensions.
Guinea-Bissau: Nationwide Final stages of election campaigns underway ahead of vote on 10 March Guinea-Bissau is set to hold legislative elections on 10 March, with the Presidential vote predicted to follow shortly after. As such, election campaigns have begun in the country dubbed as Africa’s first “narco” state. The upcoming elections are already the subject of international scrutiny, having been postponed from the original date of 18 November 2018 – due to two suspensions to voter registration, following allegations of irregularities. As such, ambassadors from the UN Security Council have met with the incumbent President José Mário Vaz, along with opposition party leaders and the country’s electoral commission, in an effort to promote free and fair elections. The former Portuguese colony has been in political crisis since August 2015, when President Vaz sacked his then Prime Minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, on corruption charges. This resulted in the dissolution of the government and caused bitter divisions within the main PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde) to which they both belong. Political protests and associated violence have been present ever since, adding to the country’s continuing instability. In October 2018, thousands of people protested in the nation’s capital to denounce a lack of transparency and irregularities surrounding voter registration. October 2018 also saw a nationwide teacher strike paralyse the education sector – in turn triggering counter-demonstrations and protests. It is also important to note that Guinea- Bissau has witnessed nine coups, or attempted coups, since 1980. ADVICE: Due to the threat of political violence surrounding elections in Guinea-Bissau, travellers are advised to delay all non-essential travel until the elections have passed. If travel is business critical, travellers are advised to consider implementing precautionary security measures. Travellers should also avoid all protests and public gatherings, although they may initially seem peaceful there is the potential for them to turn violent.
To read more please download the report: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 10
South Korea: Nationwide North Korea has condemned the joint US – South Korea military drills in the region On Thursday, 7 March, North Korea denounced the ongoing joint military exercises between Seoul and Washington as an “all out challenge” to moves towards peace on the Korean peninsula. The US and South Korea had agreed on Sunday to replace two major war games that take place every spring, known as the “Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills”, with a shorter “Dong Maeng” or “Alliance” exercise. The joint drills commenced this week and involve tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers and a large number of the 30,000 US troops posted in South Korea. ADVICE: Travellers are advised that while the likelihood of a conflict remains remote, international incidents or accidental clashes between the opposing militaries may result in an increase in tensions.
Guinea-Bissau: Nationwide Final stages of election campaigns underway ahead of vote on 10 March Guinea-Bissau is set to hold legislative elections on 10 March, with the Presidential vote predicted to follow shortly after. As such, election campaigns have begun in the country dubbed as Africa’s first “narco” state. The upcoming elections are already the subject of international scrutiny, having been postponed from the original date of 18 November 2018 – due to two suspensions to voter registration, following allegations of irregularities. As such, ambassadors from the UN Security Council have met with the incumbent President José Mário Vaz, along with opposition party leaders and the country’s electoral commission, in an effort to promote free and fair elections. The former Portuguese colony has been in political crisis since August 2015, when President Vaz sacked his then Prime Minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, on corruption charges. This resulted in the dissolution of the government and caused bitter divisions within the main PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde) to which they both belong. Political protests and associated violence have been present ever since, adding to the country’s continuing instability. In October 2018, thousands of people protested in the nation’s capital to denounce a lack of transparency and irregularities surrounding voter registration. October 2018 also saw a nationwide teacher strike paralyse the education sector – in turn triggering counter-demonstrations and protests. It is also important to note that Guinea- Bissau has witnessed nine coups, or attempted coups, since 1980. ADVICE: Due to the threat of political violence surrounding elections in Guinea-Bissau, travellers are advised to delay all non-essential travel until the elections have passed. If travel is business critical, travellers are advised to consider implementing precautionary security measures. Travellers should also avoid all protests and public gatherings, although they may initially seem peaceful there is the potential for them to turn violent.
To read more please download the report: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 10
International Women’s Day and Female Business Travellers
For International Women’s Day, Solace Global wanted to celebrate the fact that female business travellers are becoming more and more frequent. In the US, women now account for nearly 40 percent of business travellers. This number is reflected in the UK and is only going to grow in the coming years. Indeed, we are seeing our own clients having more and more women conducting business trips. These trips vary from short journeys to Europe and cities in the US to more complex journeys in Africa or to Asia. This is only good for businesses globally!
Given the large numbers of female travellers across the globe, it is important that companies ensure that they take into account the unique threats that female travellers can face in certain countries. As such, while female and male preferences and habits and are not that dissimilar when it comes to business travel, the type of threats they can face can have a significant impact on the enjoyment, and the success, of the business trip; not to mention the safety of the individual.
There is no escaping that there will always be an element of risk when travelling regardless of who the traveller is; male or female. However, as long as a person and their company are aware of the risks that they may face, there is no reason that anyone should not conduct an enjoyable and safe trip.
This is important because the last thing travellers want to do while on a trip is to be constantly worrying and making continued threat assessments about their surroundings while doing what she actually came to do: meet clients, make a presentation or close an important deal.
There are a number of things that both travellers and company risk managers can do to ensure that female business travellers can conduct their business safely and successfully. These include preparation before and actions during their journeys.
Advice for the travellers
- In the majority of cases, common sense precautions, such as avoiding travelling alone after dark in unfamiliar places and watching your drink at the bar, will keep you safe.
- Do not be too trusting, do not accept food or drinks from strangers or be accepting of lifts.
- If the hotel receptionist verbally announces your room number or puts you in an inappropriate location, such as a ground floor room or at the end of a dark corridor, feel free to ask for an alternative room.
- Ensure your hotel has double-locking doors and that both work before unpacking.
- Consider carrying doorstop, or a device such as a DoorJammer, to provide an extra security for your room.
- Research your destination before you travel, be aware of the safer areas, the places to avoid and any other things to look out for.
- Be aware of the cultural sensitivities in the country you are visiting. For example, reporting sexual assault in the United Arab Emirate can result in the victim being detained and even charged.
- Cultural sensitivities can extend to how you dress, whether or not you should initiate handshakes and even the length of eye contact.
- Ensure that someone knows where you are travelling to; be this friends, family or work colleagues. Additionally, ensure that you check in regularly with this person.
- Certain hygiene products can be difficult to buy in some countries; it is advisable that, where possible, you bring your own.
Advice for travel managers
- Travel managers already know they need to focus on safety as more women travel for business; however, this needs to translate into specific changes to travel policies.
- Global travel policy should reflect the diversity of your travellers; different locations and different travellers will all have varying risk profiles which should all be respected.
- Companies should be able to account for their employee’s whereabouts; this is especially true in more high-risk locations.
Global Security Forecast: Week 9 2019
Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global – Global Security Forecast – Week 9
Solace Global’s Global Security Forecast is a weekly risk round-up that is issued weekly by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team. The report covers important and interesting stories that have occurred over the past week and also includes a few upcoming events to give both businesses and travellers an insight into potential threats across the globe.
Maritime Snapshot Week 9
Click the link to Download PDF: Solace Global Maritime Security Snapshot – Week 9
The Solace Global Maritime Snapshot provides an overview of the latest maritime incidents across the globe as well as a deeper look at some interesting maritime stories that have occurred.
Global Security Forecast: Week 8 2019
GLOBAL HEADLINES
Nigeria: Nationwide – Severe Political Risk Elections delayed until 23 February after electoral commission unable to get materials to polling stations. The general elections that were scheduled in Nigeria on 16 February to elect the President and the National Assembly were delayed until the 23 February. The initial vote was, quite dramatically, rescheduled in a dramatic overnight press conference a mere five hours prior to the vote. The last-minute decision surprised the country, many Nigerians had been queuing since the day before or had travelled considerable distances to cast their votes. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimated that the delay has cost the economy 1.5bn USD. The Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) gave several reasons for the delay. The main issues being logistical delays, bad weather and difficulty delivering ballot papers and attempted sabotage. Both main parties, the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main challenger, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have condemned the delay. The APC has alleged that the PDP wanted to halt the moment of President Muhammadu Buhari. The PDP has otherwise stated that the Inec had delayed the election to create “the space to perfect their rigging plans”; in favour of the president. The delay is likely to have an impact on voter turnout and will most likely favour the incumbent president due to the increase in voter apathy in most areas except those with historically high turnouts; historic President Muhammadu Buhari strongholds. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel into Nigeria until after the elections due to the threat of protests which could turn violent and uncertainty over the outcome. Travellers already in country should limit non-essential movements and avoid all large gatherings and protests. Be aware that unrest and violence can continue for weeks after the day of the vote; especially should allegations of vote rigging, or fraud, occur. Adhere to all advice issued by the authorities. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. United Kingdom: London – Low Political Risk Eleven MPs have split from their parties and banded together in a so-called Independent Group. A number of British parliamentary members have defected from the Labour and Conservative parties. The move has been made as a result of a number of differences; namely alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour party and the handling of Brexit by both parties. The group was founded by Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and Chuka Umunna, who simultaneously announced their resignations from the Labour Party on 18 February. The group’s key message is that “Politics is broken. Let’s change it”. They have stated that they aim to pursue evidence-led policies, rather than those led by ideology, with the group being tolerant of differing opinions. Specific values include; a social market economy, freedom of the press, environmentalism, devolution, subsidiarity and, vitally, their opposition to Brexit. All eleven MPs support a second referendum on the EU. The split has not yet resulted in any changes by the governing Conservatives or Labour party; however, there have been reports of numerous ministers in both parties also considering defecting. On 22 February, Ian Austin announced his decision to quit the party, though he has not joined the Independent group. ADVICE: The defections demonstrate the political instability facing Britain at the moment in the run-up to Brexit, be aware that protests are likely as the date nears or depending on the decisions made by party leaders. A by those opposed and for Brexit occurred on 14 February resulting in disruption around Westminster. Haiti: Nationwide – High Civil Unrest Risk While protests start to halt; food and water shortages remain severe. Anti-government protests that have taken place nationwide since 7 February, blockading the country and all main urban centres. Several clashes between demonstrator and security forces, as well as widespread crime and looting, have forced all business activities to cease and caused severe disruption in transportation, emergency and medical services and schools. While the protests have halted in most of the country, allowing business to partially reopen, critical shortages in key resources such as water, food and fuel remain severe and could trigger new violent outbursts and crime. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor the latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Venezuela: Nationwide – Sever Political Risk Maduro orders border closure with Brazil and limits access from Colombia to prevent foreign aid. The country-wide crisis continues in Venezuela, with contested President Nicholas Maduro ordering the closure of the border with Brazil and reportedly considering the same course of action with Colombia. The decision spanned from the declaration of the interim President and opposition leader Juan Guaido to accept international foreign aid to tackle the ongoing humanitarian crisis. The Brazilian and Colombia are among the countries that recognise Guaido as interim President and are key in the facilitation of international aid, mainly coming from the US, reaching the Venezuelan citizens. Elected President Maduro has already closed maritime borders with all Caribbean countries where international aid was stored, calling the initiative an attempt from Washington to meddle in Venezuelan national affairs in order to gain access to its oil reserves, and denying the existence of a humanitarian crisis in the first place. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Mali: Timbuktu – Severe Military and Terrorism Risk France says it has killed senior al Qaeda commander in the Sahel. The French government has announced that it has killed a “senior commander of Al Qaeda” on 22 February. Yahya Abou El Hamame was reportedly killed during an operation in Mali. The Algerian, who was understood to be second in command of Nusrat al-Islam, officially known as Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM), a branch of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), was allegedly responsible for kidnapping a number of Westerners in North and West Africa. El Hamame was part of a younger generation of senior AQIM figures. Unlike many other senior commanders, he was not trained in the Afghan jihadist camps. Despite this, he is understood to have risen rapidly in AQIM’s top ranks. El Hamame was reported to have been an able commander and administrator. He was also believed to have excellent knowledge of the southern stretches of the Sahel around northern Mali – a factor that analysts believe led to his promotion after his predecessor, Abou Zeid, was killed by French forces. El Hamame is also believed to have carried out the execution of French engineer, Michel Germaneau, who was kidnapped in northern Niger. ADVICE: Jihadist militancy is common in northern Mali and kidnappings of both locals and westerns often occurs. Travellers are not advised to travel in the region unless adequate security measures are taken; even then, travel should only be conducted in business essential.GLOBAL FORECASTS
Europe: Brussels – Low Political Risk Talks continue ahead of potential vote in UK parliament on 26-27 February. British Prime Minister Theresa May is continuing to negotiate with the European Union over the terms of Britain’s departure from the union which is due to occur in a little over a month’s time. Both sides have been positive about the talks despite no tangible evidence of progress being made. An added dimension to the debate is the defection of MPs from both the Conservatives and Labour. Should the defections continue the Conservatives government may lose their ability to pass legislation while the Labour opposition may be forced to change its policy on the country leaving the EU. In addition to the ongoing talks, Britain has announced that trade deals with Japan and Turkey will not be ready by the time that Britain exits the European Union. Therefore, on 22 February, the country has only been able to finalise “continuity agreements” with seven of the 69 countries and regions with which the EU has trade deals. ADVICE: Travellers and businesses should continue to monitor the ongoing discussions in Brussels and the debate in the British Parliament. The situation could change rapidly in the coming weeks with the potential of a disruptive no deal exit still a possibility. Vietnam: Hanoi – Low Political Risk North Korea-United States Summit to be held on 27 February. Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un are set to meet for a second round of the North Korea-US summits in Hanoi on 27 February. Among the topics to be discussed, are the establishment of a roadmap for the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, and the signing of an armistice that would put an end to the war between the two nations. A senior American official visited Pyongyang earlier this month to arrange details ahead of the nuclear summit. During the first historical Summit, held in Singapore in June last year and representing the first ever meeting between leaders of the two states, a joint statement was released agreeing on commitments towards a denuclearised Korean Peninsula and the commitment towards the development of peaceful relations. ADVICE: Travellers visiting Hanoi should exercise caution and anticipate heightened security around the area hosting the event, possible disruption in main roads and transportation, as well as possible demonstration in support or against the summit. Algeria: Algiers – High Civil Unrest Risk Demonstrations planned to denounce President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s candidacy in the upcoming elections. Demonstrations are being held and are expected to be held in the Algerian capital on 22 and 24 February to denounce the candidacy of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the 18 April elections. On 22 February, there was a significant deployment of security personnel across the country; especially in Algiers. On the 22 February protests which are currently underway at the time of writing, the authorities have reportedly fired tear gas outside the presidential palace. There have also been reports of internet outages; however, these have not been confirmed. The incumbent president has announced, on 10 February, that he would seek a fifth term. The announcement came after four parties announced that they would support him (the National Liberation Front (FLN), the National Rally for Democracy, the Rally for Hope for Algeria and the Algerian Popular Movement). The president has rarely been seen in public since suffering from a stroke in 2013 with critics saying his health limits his ability to carry out his duties. A large protest also occurred on the outskirts of Khenchela – located some 500km southeast of capital Algiers – on 19 February after the mayor (a member of the president’s ruling FLN) stated that he would bar presidential hopeful Rachid Nekkaz from meeting his supporters outside the town hall. ADVICE: Travellers in country should avoid all gatherings and vacate any areas that experience unrest. Adhere to the instructions issued by the authorities at all time. Monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest details regarding unrest in the region. Guam: Nationwide – Moderate Political Risk Typhoon Wutip is set to strengthen and may impact Guam, Marina Islands and Palau Islands. Tropical Storm Wutip has strengthened into a typhoon on 21 February, further strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours. The island of Weno reported nearly 50 mm (2 inches) of rainfall on 20 February as Wutip impacted the region. The islands of eastern Yap State were also impacted on Friday, 22 February, and is expected to continue into Saturday as the storm-system turns northward. It is unclear exactly where the storm will impact; with two scenarios possible. The first being that Wutip could pass near or over Guam, or the storm could track farther west between Guam and Colonia in Micronesia, with a lesser impact being recorded on both the islands. However, even in the event that no islands were directly impacted, gusty winds and downpours can result in localised flooding and power outages. ADVICE: Monitor weather and Solace Secure updates for updated information on the storm if in country and be prepared for travel.SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 23 Feb | Nigeria | Election (delayed) | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 24 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 25 Feb | Kuwait | National Day | LOW |
| 25 Feb | British Virgin Islands | General elections | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 28 Feb | Brazil | Salvador de Bahia Carnival | LOW |
| 28 Feb | Kuwait | Liberation Day | LOW |
| 28 Feb | Taiwan | 228 Memorial Day | LOW |
| 3 March | Estonia | Parliamentary Elections | NEGLIGIBLE |
Global Security Forecast: Week 7 2010
GLOBAL HEADLINES
France: Nationwide – Clashes reported at Yellow Vest protests nationwide, 9-10 February. After the National Assembly passed a controversial “anti-hooligan law” that allows police to ban demonstrations, on 9-10 February, a “Yellow Vest” protest was held. Violent clashes were reported along the Champs Elysees and police fired tear gas at protesters. Violence was also reported in front of the National Assembly building. At least 39 people were arrested, and several were injured. Protests were also reported in Toulouse, Marseille, Montpellier and Lyon. ADVICE: Yellow Vest protests are known to turn violent with little notice. Travellers are advised to avoid all Yellow Vets demonstrations and public gatherings. Travellers are advised to monitor local media for situational updates on Yellow Vest (Gilet Jaunes) protests. Further related demonstrations are anticipated over the next weeks. Violence and unrest cannot be ruled out. Egypt: Cairo – Parliament votes to approve draft constitutional changes to allow President Sisi to remain in power for another 12 years The Egyptian parliament has overwhelmingly voted to approve draft constitutional changes that could extend President Abdul al-Sisi’s presidency to 2034. Sisi is currently due to step down in 2022 after his second four-year term; however, 485 of 596 lawmakers voted on 14 February to lengthen presidential terms to six years as well as allowing Sisi to serve another two. Several Egyptian human rights groups have spoken out against the decision. The announcement is unlikely to provoke significant disorder as the Egyptian security forces maintain a firm grip over any potential unrest in country. However, there is a possibility for both demonstrations, outbursts in violence and for terror attacks. A bomb attack was carried out on 15 February with an IED detonating near Giza’s Al-Istiqamah Mosque while the authorities were attempting to diffuse the device. A second IED was successfully diffused near Al-Nahda Square. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to monitor for unrest and be aware of the possibility for further terror attacks. United Kingdom: London – Two injured in acid attack in central London, 12 February. The UK has seen a dramatic increase in acid attacks, with London being a major target area. According to Acid Survivors Trust International (ASTI), there is an average of two acids attacks per day across the country. The latest one occurred on 12 February. During afternoon hours local time, police were called to Argyle Street, Near King’s Cross Station to reports of an altercation between two groups. Officers reported that one group left the location by the time they arrived, however, two men were later found nearby with facial injuries caused by a corrosive substance. No arrests have yet been made. ADVICE: Travellers are advised to be aware of the common occurrence of acid attacks in London. Travellers should report any suspicious behaviour to the authorities and maintain situational awareness at all times. Belgium: Nationwide – National strike on 13 February brings the country to a standstill A strike organised by air traffic controllers and baggage handlers triggered major disruptions at airports nationwide, notably in Brussels on 13 February. Unionised public-sector workers joined the strike in support of pay demands. Brussel Airlines cancelled 222 flights and reportedly more than 16,000 passengers were affected. Antwerp and Charleroi airports were closed. Several international airlines such as British Airways and Lufthansa, cancelled or rescheduled their flights ahead of the anticipated disruption. The 24hr strike also affected other means of transportation such as trains, buses and trams. Moreover, the air traffic control agency, Skeyes, ordered the shutdown of the national airspace due to safety concerns triggered by staffing uncertainties. ADVICE: The majority of delays have now cleared; however, travellers should contact their airline directly for further information. India: Jammu and Kashmir State – An IED explosion has left almost 50 soldiers dead in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir State Banned terrorist organisation, allegedly backed by Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) has claimed responsibility for the attack in the Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district on Thursday, 14 February. The attack has left 46 soldiers dead and is the deadliest single attack on Indian troops in the region in decades. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of failing to act against the militant group and has stated that it will ensure the “complete isolation” of Pakistan as a result. India also accused that Pakistan of harbouring Jaish-e-Mohammad, the group behind the attack. It has called for global sanctions against the group and for its leader, Masood Azhar, to be listed as a terrorist by the UN security council. However, past attempts at doing so have repeatedly been blocked by China; an ally of Pakistan.GLOBAL FORECAST
Nigeria: Nationwide – Elections set to take place on 16 February amid heightened security. General elections are scheduled in Nigeria on 16 February to elect the President and the National Assembly. The latest polling suggests that current President, Muhammadu Buhari of the APC (All Progressives Congress), is likely to lose to the opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP (People’s Democratic Party). Security has already been heightened across Nigeria in the run up to the elections, with political demonstrations in major cities, including; Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt, becoming increasingly frequent that have the potential to turn violent. On 10 February, two offices of Nigeria’s Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) were burnt down; however, it is unclear who was responsible. Additionally, following the suspension of the country’s Chief Justice, there are concerns over the potential for voting irregularities. Any indication of such would almost certainly result in widespread unrest and violence, as well as condemnation from the international community. There has also been a recent upsurge in attacks by Boko Haram in Nigeria’s north-east, while the US State Department has reported an increased propaganda campaign by the terrorist group. Both Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) have issued threats stating that they intend to carry out attacks on various targets, including the Nigerian security forces, country infrastructure and on busy urban centres frequented by foreigners’ travellers. ADVICE: Defer all non-essential travel into Nigeria until after the elections have been concluded due to the threat of protests which could turn violent and uncertainty over the outcome. Travellers already in country should limit non-essential movements and avoid all large gatherings and protests. Adhere to all advice issued by the authorities. Read our latest travel advisory for further information. Bangladesh: Dhaka – Religious event in Tongi, outskirts of Dhaka, 15-18 February. Bangladesh is set to host Bishwa Ijtema, the world’s second-largest Muslim gathering, between 15 – 18 February. The event will be centralised along the banks of the Turag River near Tongi, on the outskirts of Dhaka. Although the gathering is generally peaceful, it is predicted that some five million attendees will flood into Dhaka and surrounding areas, which will inevitably hinder of security and travel to some extent. Moreover, there has been confrontations between two factions of Tabligh Jamaat in the build-up to this year’s festival – with clashes taking place in December and resulting in at least one death and more than 200 injured. The State Minister for Religious Affairs, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, is said to have secured a peaceful conclusion after talks with the two feuding Tabligh Jamaat factions – but this does eliminate all concerns regarding the event. ADVICE: Travellers planning to attend the festival should exercise caution and remain vigilant. Travel in and around the area will be severely impacted and therefore travellers will need to allow additional time for movements or plan alternative routes. Haiti: Nationwide – US embassy evacuates non-emergency staff as unrest impacts country; further unrest likely The US State Department has issued a travel warning on Thursday ordering all non-emergency personnel and their families out of the country. The warning comes as protests in Port-au-Prince have turned violent this week; at least two people were killed and dozens more injured, some severely, as police and anti-government protesters clashed. Unrest has been ongoing for months in the Caribbean country’s capital as demonstrators are demanding to know the whereabouts of some $4 billion that was supposed to have gone to social development. Tourists and aid workers have reportedly been trapped in the country by the unrest, with the protests also impacting supplies of food, fuel and drinking water. Further unrest is likely over the weekend. ADVICE: All non-essential travel to the country should be deferred for at least the next week. If currently in-country, consider departing as well as limiting all travel to only essential movements. Zimbabwe: Nationwide – Robert Mugabe National Youth Day, 21 February. Zimbabwe is set to celebrate its second Robert Mugabe National Youth Day on 21 February. The public holiday falls on the former President’s birthday and was declared to honour his role in empowering Zimbabwe’s youth. Celebrations on this date are not new and during Mugabe’s rule, it was marked with extravagance and public gatherings across the country. However, the holiday is also highly controversial due to the nature of the decades-long Mugabe rule. Social media and news sources indicate that millions of Zimbabweans are disappointed and angry at the establishment of the public holiday due to Mugabe’s mismanagement of the economy and rampant corruption allegations. Advice: Travellers are advised to avoid large gatherings or protests as they have the potential to turn violent or be suppressed with force by security forces. Spain: Nationwide – Prime minister calls for snap elections on 28 April following rejection of country’s budget Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has called for a snap general election to be held on the 28 April. The call comes after Catalan secessionists joined right-wing parties in rejecting the government’s national budget. The election is set to be the third in less than four years in the country and it was seen as an inevitability after the government’s budget was defeated by 191 to 158. The prime minister’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party is currently ahead in the polls and it is likely that they will use the threat of an incoming right-leaning government as a rallying cry to get voters to the ballot box. Advice: Be aware that political campaigning and politically motivated gatherings are likely in the run-up to the election and may result in disruption.SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 15 Feb | India | Kumbh Mela | LOW |
| 15 Feb | Afghanistan | Liberation Day | HIGH |
| 15 Feb | Iran | Martyrdom of Imam Reza | HIGH |
| 15 Feb | Serbia | Statehood Day | LOW |
| 16-19 Feb | Nice | Carnival de Nice | LOW |
| 16-19 Feb | Italy | Venice Carnival | LOW |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 18 Feb | Guinea-Bissau | Election campaign | MODERATE |
| 18 Feb | Gambia | Independence Day | MODERATE |
| 18 Feb | Nepal | National Democracy Day | LOW |
| 18 Feb | Puerto Rico | Presidents Day | LOW |
| 19 Feb | Asian Calendar | Lantern Festival | LOW |
| 19 Feb | Cambodia | Buddha Day | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 28 Feb | Brazil | Salvador de Bahia Carnival | LOW |
| 3 March | Estonia | Parliamentary Elections | NEGLIGIBLE |
Maritime Snapshot Week 7
Americas
8 February: Piracy negatively affecting illegal trade between South America and Trinidad Contraband smugglers are seeing a negative impact on their ability to trade between South America and Trinidad as a result of the rise of piracy off the Venezuelan coast. While the trade of narcotics appears to be flourishing, trade in tropical birds, such as bullfinches, parrots and macaws have all dropped; resulting in shortages in Trinidad and the wider region. Additionally, other illegally imported animals, such as monkeys and even cattle have all but stopped.
Gulf of Guinea
9 February: Robber armed with a knife boarded a product tanker in Port of Monrovia Duty crew on routine rounds onboard a berthed product tanker noticed a robber armed with a knife at 0340 UTC in position 06:21.1N – 010:47.8W, Port of Monrovia, Liberia. As a result, the vessels alarm was sounded, resulting in the robber escaping. On searching the vessel, ships stores were reported stolen. Incident was reported to a local agent and port control.
Indian Ocean
3 February: Crew noticed a boat under forecastle of a product tanker LATE Report | Chief officer on routine rounds onboard berthed Singapore-flagged product tanker noticed a boat under the forecastle and notified the other deck crew at 1630 UTC in position 23:02.02N – 070:13.39E, Oil Jetty No4, Kandla Port, India. Seeing the alerted crew, the boat moved away. On inspection, it was noticed that a store room had been broken into but nothing reported stolen. Port authorities notified.
Asia
5 February: Ship property stolen at anchor in Belawan Anchorage Duty crew on routine rounds onboard anchored Singapore-flagged tanker noticed a robber escaping via the hawse pipe and raised the alarm at 2205 UTC in position 03:55.40N – 098:40E, Belawan Anchorage, Indonesia. Crew mustered and on searching the vessel ships properties reported missing. 10 February: Robbery reported on an anchored bulk carrier in Caofeidian Anchorage, China Duty officer onboard anchored Singapore-flagged bulk carrier noticed from the bridge wing a hose connected from an opened DO tank manhole to a small unlit barge alongside the ship at 1840 UTC in position 38:52.50N – 118:42.60E. The vessel crew raised the alarm, and duty AB were instructed to investigate. Hearing the alarm, the duty officer noticed a robber lowering the hose and escaping in the barge. On sounding the tank, it was reported that DO had been stolen. Incident reported to VTS Caofeidian. The Coastguard are now investigating.
A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week
Second incident in Singapore Strait in a week after vessel sinks near Pedra Branca A Dominica-flagged supply vessel has capsized and sunk in Singapore territorial waters near Pedra Branca on 14 February. At around 07:15 local time the vessel, Ocean Cooper 2 capsized and sank whilst in the westbound lane of the traffic separation scheme. The incident occurred around 3 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, within Singapore territorial waters in the Singapore Strait. The vessel’s three Indonesian crew members were rescued by a nearby accompanying supply vessel, the Jolly Rachel, and are all safe. Additionally, no injuries or oil pollution were reported in the area. The authorities will deploy a vessel to conduct a hydrographic survey of the wreck and will investigate the incident. Traffic in the Singapore Strait remains unaffected. The incident comes less than a week after two vessels collided in Singapore territorial waters off Tuas on 9 February. In that incident, Greek-flagged Pireas and a Malaysian buoy-laying vessel Polaris collided while the Pireas was making its from Singapore to Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia. There were no reported injuries in the incident and the Pireas sustained no damage. Due to these factors, the collision incident was not considered a very serious marine casualty incident under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Marine Casualty Investigation Code. As such the Pireas was allowed to proceed with its journey to Tanjung Pelepas. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) is investigating. During a debate at UN, Russian ambassador proposes international piracy mechanism backed by the UN The Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia, has proposed to create an international, UN-backed, interstate coordinating mechanism to combat piracy at sea. The Ambassador believes that the creation of such a structure would help facilitate the plethora of challenges that countries now face globally. Nebenzia stated that “It is necessary to create under the aegis of the UN a universal and interstate coordinating mechanism, independent of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, which would be dedicated to combating piracy and other types of maritime crime.” The ambassador also stated that Russia is “very concerned” about the recent cases of assaults on merchant ships and kidnappings of their crews. The comments are also potent as On January 2, 2019, pirates attacked the freighter MSC Mandy off the coast of Benin, kidnapping six Russian sailors, including the ship’s captain. Indeed, in its annual report, the International Maritime Bureau (IMO) noted that in 2018 pirates attacked vessels at sea 201 times, 21 more than in the previous year. The Gulf of Guinea saw the majority of these attacks. However, there has also been an increase in incidents in the Americas and robberies at ports across Asia. The ambassador’s comments do hold water, international cooperation has been extremely successful off the coast of Somalia and in the wider ocean. The international naval task forces that have patrolled the region have been successful in deterring pirate activity as well as responding to the incident. Additionally, most importantly, BMP5 (5th edition of the piracy-specific Best Management Practice) and the Global Counter Piracy Guidance means that vessels transiting these routes are equipped with the means to deter and defend themselves. These measures, especially including the inclusion of onboard security, have been extremely successful at stopping pirate attacks. Indeed a number of recent incidents have resulted in pirates aborting attacks after they encounter resistance. The Singapore-flagged vessel that was seized off coast off Cameroon has been released In a statement on 6 February, Singapore-based firm Eastern Pacific Shipping confirmed that the Barents Sea had been released. Vessel, which also carries the Singapore flag departed the port of Limbe in Cameroon with all 26 crew on 5 February. Eastern Pacific Shipping alleged, when the vessel was seized by armed local militiamen, that Mr Jules François Famawa, owner of a local charterer, DSC Marine, had “used illegitimate means to seize the vessel for the purpose of holding its owners to ransom in clear violation of Cameroonian and international law”. It is understood that the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, the Republic of Singapore Navy, the various embassies representing the ship’s crew – which includes Indian, Chinese and Turkish nationals – and the Cameroonian authorities were all involved in negotiating the release of the vessel and the crew.
8 February: Piracy negatively affecting illegal trade between South America and Trinidad Contraband smugglers are seeing a negative impact on their ability to trade between South America and Trinidad as a result of the rise of piracy off the Venezuelan coast. While the trade of narcotics appears to be flourishing, trade in tropical birds, such as bullfinches, parrots and macaws have all dropped; resulting in shortages in Trinidad and the wider region. Additionally, other illegally imported animals, such as monkeys and even cattle have all but stopped.
Gulf of Guinea
9 February: Robber armed with a knife boarded a product tanker in Port of Monrovia Duty crew on routine rounds onboard a berthed product tanker noticed a robber armed with a knife at 0340 UTC in position 06:21.1N – 010:47.8W, Port of Monrovia, Liberia. As a result, the vessels alarm was sounded, resulting in the robber escaping. On searching the vessel, ships stores were reported stolen. Incident was reported to a local agent and port control.
Indian Ocean
3 February: Crew noticed a boat under forecastle of a product tanker LATE Report | Chief officer on routine rounds onboard berthed Singapore-flagged product tanker noticed a boat under the forecastle and notified the other deck crew at 1630 UTC in position 23:02.02N – 070:13.39E, Oil Jetty No4, Kandla Port, India. Seeing the alerted crew, the boat moved away. On inspection, it was noticed that a store room had been broken into but nothing reported stolen. Port authorities notified.
Asia
5 February: Ship property stolen at anchor in Belawan Anchorage Duty crew on routine rounds onboard anchored Singapore-flagged tanker noticed a robber escaping via the hawse pipe and raised the alarm at 2205 UTC in position 03:55.40N – 098:40E, Belawan Anchorage, Indonesia. Crew mustered and on searching the vessel ships properties reported missing. 10 February: Robbery reported on an anchored bulk carrier in Caofeidian Anchorage, China Duty officer onboard anchored Singapore-flagged bulk carrier noticed from the bridge wing a hose connected from an opened DO tank manhole to a small unlit barge alongside the ship at 1840 UTC in position 38:52.50N – 118:42.60E. The vessel crew raised the alarm, and duty AB were instructed to investigate. Hearing the alarm, the duty officer noticed a robber lowering the hose and escaping in the barge. On sounding the tank, it was reported that DO had been stolen. Incident reported to VTS Caofeidian. The Coastguard are now investigating.
A Closer Look at Maritime Security News This Week
Second incident in Singapore Strait in a week after vessel sinks near Pedra Branca A Dominica-flagged supply vessel has capsized and sunk in Singapore territorial waters near Pedra Branca on 14 February. At around 07:15 local time the vessel, Ocean Cooper 2 capsized and sank whilst in the westbound lane of the traffic separation scheme. The incident occurred around 3 nautical miles from Pedra Branca, within Singapore territorial waters in the Singapore Strait. The vessel’s three Indonesian crew members were rescued by a nearby accompanying supply vessel, the Jolly Rachel, and are all safe. Additionally, no injuries or oil pollution were reported in the area. The authorities will deploy a vessel to conduct a hydrographic survey of the wreck and will investigate the incident. Traffic in the Singapore Strait remains unaffected. The incident comes less than a week after two vessels collided in Singapore territorial waters off Tuas on 9 February. In that incident, Greek-flagged Pireas and a Malaysian buoy-laying vessel Polaris collided while the Pireas was making its from Singapore to Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia. There were no reported injuries in the incident and the Pireas sustained no damage. Due to these factors, the collision incident was not considered a very serious marine casualty incident under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Marine Casualty Investigation Code. As such the Pireas was allowed to proceed with its journey to Tanjung Pelepas. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) is investigating. During a debate at UN, Russian ambassador proposes international piracy mechanism backed by the UN The Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia, has proposed to create an international, UN-backed, interstate coordinating mechanism to combat piracy at sea. The Ambassador believes that the creation of such a structure would help facilitate the plethora of challenges that countries now face globally. Nebenzia stated that “It is necessary to create under the aegis of the UN a universal and interstate coordinating mechanism, independent of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, which would be dedicated to combating piracy and other types of maritime crime.” The ambassador also stated that Russia is “very concerned” about the recent cases of assaults on merchant ships and kidnappings of their crews. The comments are also potent as On January 2, 2019, pirates attacked the freighter MSC Mandy off the coast of Benin, kidnapping six Russian sailors, including the ship’s captain. Indeed, in its annual report, the International Maritime Bureau (IMO) noted that in 2018 pirates attacked vessels at sea 201 times, 21 more than in the previous year. The Gulf of Guinea saw the majority of these attacks. However, there has also been an increase in incidents in the Americas and robberies at ports across Asia. The ambassador’s comments do hold water, international cooperation has been extremely successful off the coast of Somalia and in the wider ocean. The international naval task forces that have patrolled the region have been successful in deterring pirate activity as well as responding to the incident. Additionally, most importantly, BMP5 (5th edition of the piracy-specific Best Management Practice) and the Global Counter Piracy Guidance means that vessels transiting these routes are equipped with the means to deter and defend themselves. These measures, especially including the inclusion of onboard security, have been extremely successful at stopping pirate attacks. Indeed a number of recent incidents have resulted in pirates aborting attacks after they encounter resistance. The Singapore-flagged vessel that was seized off coast off Cameroon has been released In a statement on 6 February, Singapore-based firm Eastern Pacific Shipping confirmed that the Barents Sea had been released. Vessel, which also carries the Singapore flag departed the port of Limbe in Cameroon with all 26 crew on 5 February. Eastern Pacific Shipping alleged, when the vessel was seized by armed local militiamen, that Mr Jules François Famawa, owner of a local charterer, DSC Marine, had “used illegitimate means to seize the vessel for the purpose of holding its owners to ransom in clear violation of Cameroonian and international law”. It is understood that the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, the Republic of Singapore Navy, the various embassies representing the ship’s crew – which includes Indian, Chinese and Turkish nationals – and the Cameroonian authorities were all involved in negotiating the release of the vessel and the crew.
Global Security Forecast: Week 6 2019
Bahrain: Nationwide – Possibility of protest action on anniversary of 2011 unrest on 14 February
The upcoming anniversary heightens the risk posed to travellers as security forces are expected to adopt a zero-tolerance approach towards anti-government protests held on the day. “Preventative” arrests are highly likely prior to 14 February and aggressive dispersal measures will be in place to prevent protests from spreading beyond restricted areas and to stop the organisation of mass protests, particularly in Manama.
ADVICE: Employ a heightened level of vigilance in the coming week and adhere to all advice issued by security personnel. Read our latest travel advisory for further information.
Venezuela: Colombian Border – The country’s military has blocked the border crossing with Colombia to halt the arrival of international aid
The Venezuelan military has blocked the Tienditas bridge in response to the arrival of US aid trucks. President Maduro has rejected letting the aid into the country, while opposition leader Juan Guaido, who has declared himself interim president, has warned many Venezuelans are in danger of dying without international aid.
ADVICE: All non-essential travel to the country continues to be advised against. Be aware that the situation remains tense and could escalate with little or no warning.
Iran: Nationwide – Iranians are set to celebrate the anniversary of the country’s revolution in 1979
Iran is set to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution’s victory on Monday, 11 February. The celebration comes amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington, a prolonged economic downturn and an attack on a military base in the southeast of the country.
On February 11, Tehran has organised a march to Tehran’s Azadi (freedom) Square in the capital to mark the day the monarchy was officially toppled 10 days after the triumphant return from exile of the revolution’s leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The event is likely to take place under a high level of security, especially after the attack on a Revolutionary Guard military base in Basij.
Despite the celebrations, the country faces acute economic challenges as it struggles with a mix of domestic hardships and US sanctions. The country’s currency, the Rial, has sharply devalued against the dollar, driving up prices. While the re-introduction of sanctions has blocked foreign investment and limited oil sales. Tehran has warned against those who threaten the country from within and called for national unity.
In addition to these challenges, the country is also dealing with an environmental crisis, brought on by a mix of air pollution, soil erosion, drought and desertification.
ADVICE: Travellers in-country are advised to monitor for possible protest action and monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest updates. If driving, be aware that some roads may become blocked by protesters and/or celebratory rallies.
Lebanon: Nationwide – Heightened security is being employed ahead of two significant anniversaries in country
Security will be high in Beirut ahead of the anniversaries of the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Imad Moughniyeh on 12 February, and the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on 14 February. While commemorative events on 12 February tend to be confined to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut, there is a higher security risk associated with the annual commemoration of the assassination of Rafik Hariri in the Downtown area.
Despite the formation of a new government that put an end to nearly nine months of political deadlock, tensions remain high, with the risk that those could manifest next week. Any major security incident during or against those events, especially on 14 February, would likely derail the achievements thus far.
Advice: Travellers are advised to employ a heightened level of caution in the country over the course of the anniversaries. Read our Travel Advisory for more information
US: Washington – President Donald Trump delivered his State of the Union speech to a joint session of Congress
President Trump finally made is State of the Union speech; the president used his speech to extend an olive branch to Democrats despite recent months of accusing them of obstructing the border wall with Mexico. The president also made a case for a state of emergency on the borders of the country. Trump also, in a mirror to President Nixon’s final State of the Union speech, called for an end of the investigation into his presidency.
ADVICE: Protest are uncommon in the United States; however, large rallies do occur on occasion over gun violence, women’s rights and other issues; monitor media reports for further information.
Cameroon: Yaoundé – US to withdraw military support from Cameroon government over current Anglophone crisis
Washington has withdrawn support for the Yaoundé government over the ongoing Anglophone crisis in Cameroon. As a result, the US has halted its C-130 aircraft training program, as well as halting the deliveries of four defender boats, nine armoured vehicles and an upgrade of an ageing Cessna aircraft for Cameroon’s rapid intervention battalion.
Furthermore, the United States had withdrawn its offer for Cameroon to be part of the State Partnership Program, a military cooperation program.
ADVICE: The situation in the country remains adverse, especially in the anglophone regions to the northwest and southwest of the country. Only essential travel to these regions should be carried out.
France/Italy: Rome – Paris has withdrawn its ambassador to Italy for consultations after a series of provocations by the Italian government
The French foreign ministry said that it had recalled its ambassador to Rome for consultations after a series of “provocations” by Italy’s populist government. In a statement, the ministry said, “for several months France has been the subject of repeated accusations, unfounded attacks and outlandish claims.”
Tensions have been high between the two countries since the election of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and far-right League party came to power in June in a coalition government.
ADVICE: The latest political spat is unlikely to cause much changes in the two countries’ relations. However, the foreign government support for Yellow Vest protesters shows the strength and enduring power of the movement. Further protests should be expected in the coming weeks.
Afghanistan: Kabul – After progress in peace talks, the US has now stated its intentions to withdraw from Afghanistan
The Taliban have now sat down for talks with Americans in Qatar and with senior members of the Afghan elite in Moscow. However, while these talks are ongoing, the US president Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants US troops to withdraw from the country and from America’s longest war.
While the progress of the talks has been positive, the talk of the United States intention to leave as long as a deal can be made gives a sense of unease. When a superpower signals its desperation to get out of a conflict, the subsequent negotiations are designed only to provide diplomatic cover. The Taliban will be aware of this, they will, therefore, make more promises that they do not intend to keep simply to help expedite the US troop departure; indeed, they have offered similar assurances in the past.
The Taliban are calling for a withdrawal of foreign troops and an instalment of an interim government. Both of which would allow them to wait for the last US troops to leave before potentially disregarding any agreements and attempting to retake Kabul and the majority of the country; as they did in 1996.
ADVICE: The situation in Afghanistan remains unstable. Should talks collapse, there may be an increase in attacks in the country; especially in Kabul.
SIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 10 Feb | Switzerland | Referendum | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 28 Feb | Brazil | Salvador de Bahia Carnival | LOW |
| 3 March | Estonia | Parliamentary Elections | NEGLIGIBLE |
Global Security Forecast: Week 2019
Venezuela: Nationwide – Unrest continues across country as political uncertainty in country
Protests continue to impact Venezuela as the political situation remains volatile and unchanged following violent unrest that occurred in Caracas and other urban centres on the anniversary of the 1958 civilian-military movement to dispose of the military junta. Over the past week, numerous governments have announced support for the opposition leader, and the self-declared president, Juan Guaido; including the majority of South America, the United States and Australia. While European countries have been slightly more cautious in their support, the European Union has called on de facto President Nicolas Maduro to call for immediate elections; a move he has refused. Maduro currently enjoys less widespread international support; however, notably, China and Russia continue to support him.
ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to country; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor latest alerts. Read our latest travel advisory for further information.
Europe: Brussels – The EU has agreed visa-free travel for UK citizens amidst a dispute over Gibraltar as Brexit future remains unclear
The EU has agreed to visa-free travel for all UK citizens, even in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. UK travellers will be able to visit the Schengen area for short stay visits (maximum 90 days in any 180 days) without a visa. This measure is considered an act of reciprocity, as Britain had already confirmed EU citizens travelling to the UK for short stays would not require a visa.
However, as with much of the ongoing Brexit negotiations, parts of the regulation announcement have been met with criticism by UK officials over the description of Gibraltar as a “colony”. The terminology was reportedly an insertion at the request of Spain, which holds a long-standing sovereignty claim to the peninsula.
Additionally, British politicians have had their February recess cancelled as the next steps to the British exit from the European Union remain unclear. It is likely that more information about what Britain will do will be released in the coming week following meetings amongst politicians on both sides of the channel.
ADVICE: Travellers are advised to continue monitoring the Brexit situation as parliament in the United Kingdom remains far off from agreeing the deal that the British government agreed with Brussels and it remains unclear what exact implications a no-deal Brexit would have.
France: Nationwide – Further Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) protests planned nationwide
Further Yellow Vest (Gilets Jaunes) protesters have announced their intention to hold demonstrations across France on Saturday 2 February. Paris, Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Rouen, Strasbourg, Toulouse and Valence. The protests come as the French government plans to introduce measures to ban masks at rallies in an effort to tackle unrest. The French government has come under scrutiny for these measures and the use of “offensive” weapons.
Groups have recently been stating that the French police’s brutality cannot be denied after a number of injuries. France’s legal advisory body, the council of state, examined an urgent request by the French Human Rights League and the CGT trade union to ban police from using a form of rubber-bullet launcher in which ball-shaped projectiles are shot out of specialised handheld launchers. France’s rights groups have long warned they are dangerous and carry “disproportionate risk”.
ADVICE: Travellers in-country are advised to avoid all protests and monitor Solace Secure alerts for the latest updates. If driving, be aware that some roads may become blocked by protesters.
GLOBAL HEADLINES • 1 – 8 February 2019
US: Nationwide – Freezing temperatures result in snowfall across large parts of country; at least 12 deaths have been reported Extremely cold temperature and heavy snowstorms have resulted in significant disruption across the United States. The Midwest and Northeast have seen the worst of the adverse weather. At least eight people have been killed as a result so the so-called “polar-vortex”. Significant flight delays have been reported at numerous airports; with Chicago-area airports seeing some of the worst of the disruption. Around 1600 flight cancellations were reported at O’Hare International Airport and Midway International Airport. Some temperatures have been reported as low as -40C (-40F) with windchill and rail workers have resorted to setting railway junctions on fire to keep trains running in the Chicago area. Weather forecasters have warned that there is further bad weather to come. The storm system is likely to move south west toward the coast in coming days. ADVICE: Travellers in the United States are advised to monitor weather reports and ensure that you wear adequate clothing when outdoors or driving. be aware that transport delays and cancellations are extremely likely. Ensure flights are operating and refrain from non-essential travel. Lebanon: Beirut – Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri has finally managed to form a new government after all factions agree a deal Lebanese factions have agreed to form a new government after what has been nine-month pf political wrangling. The “government of national unity’s” first challenge will be to revive the country’s economy and look to cut national debt; which currently stands at 150 percent of GDP. The cabinet, which consists of 30 members, includes four women – which is a first for Lebanon. Hezbollah were awarded two seats in the cabinet and their Sunni allies received one. Additionally, most likely as a bargaining chip, Hezbollah also chose the health minister; however, he is not a member of the Shia Islamist party/militant group. Mr Hariri, only 48 years old, is now a veteran of Lebanese politics; his father was killed by a bomb allegedly planted by men linked to Hezbollah. Lebanon has long had a power-sharing political system between the different religious denominations. The number of seats in parliament is split between Christians and Muslims. Cabinet members must also present this balanced nature with the president, prime minister and speaker of the parliament each come from a specific religious background. ADVICE: While the announcement of the new government ends months of uncertainty, be aware that protests are still possible. This is especially true should the new government find itself unable to tackle the current countries crisis. Pakistan: Islamabad – Pakistan military successfully test fires a new short-range missile On 31 January, the Pakistani army test-fired a new short-range missile – called Nasr; which reportedly has a strike range of about 70 km – as part of an Army Strategic Forces Command training exercise. The missile reportedly has “extreme inflight manoeuvrability, including the end flight manoeuvrability”. This will, allegedly, allow the missile to penetrate any currently available Ballistic missile defence system in the region. There is little doubt that the Nasr missile has been developed with India in mind. The Indian military has denied, but allegedly possesses a military doctrine known as “Cold Start”. The doctrine is part of Indian defence planning and involves various branches of India’s conventional military conducting offensive operations as part of unified battlegroups. In theory, the doctrine intends to allow India’s conventional forces to perform holding attacks to prevent a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan in case of a conflict. ADVICE: A conflict between India and Pakistan remains highly unlikely. Both countries have internal issues that require more attention than a full-scale conflict. Additionally, the possession of nuclear weapons and the mutually assured destruction theory also dampens any prospect of conflict. Afghanistan: Kabul – Officials from the US and the Taliban have made progress during peace talks Talks between the US and Taliban representatives concluded on 26 January after six days in which some significant progress was made towards the potential ending of the enduring conflict. However, some doubts have been raised over two pivotal points; an overall ceasefire and the withdrawal of foreign troops. Another strong point of concern has been the Taliban reluctance to negotiate directly with Afghan officials, raising doubts of the long-term endurance of any peace deal that could be made, and increasing the likelihood of continued domestic insecurity after the withdrawal foreign forces. Progress has been made towards the Taliban’s agreement in no longer permitting terror groups, such as ISIL or Al Qaeda, to find “safe havens” in Afghanistan. Both the US and Taliban officials have agreed to continue negotiations, although no date has been publicly announced as yet. ADVICE: Despite the ongoing talks, attacks by the Taliban remain highly likely as do attack by other militant groups. Travellers in Kabul should remain up to date with the latest location-specific security information and regional developments by monitoring local media, Solace Global Alerts and liaising with in-country contacts. Travel security managers should ensure staff in-country understand what to do in the event if an escalation occurs and have clearly defined points of contact that they can ring in the event of an emergency. Nigeria: Nationwide – Six sailors kidnapped in early January have been releasedSIGNIFICANT DATES AND EVENTS
| Date | Country | Event | Potential for Violence |
| 3 Feb | El Salvador | Presidential elections | HIGH |
| 3 Feb | United States | Super Bowl | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 7 Feb | Germany | Berlin Film Festival | NEGLIGIBLE |
| 16 Feb | Nigeria | Presidential and Legislative elections | HIGH |
| 24 Feb | Cuba | Referendum | LOW |
| 24 Feb | Moldova | Legislative elections | MODERATE |
| 1 Feb | Senegal | Presidential elections | MODERATE |
| 28 Feb | Brazil | Salvador de Bahia Carnival | LOW |
| 3 March | Estonia | Parliamentary Elections | NEGLIGIBLE |