• The World Health Organisation records 7 million premature deaths annually due to the effects of air pollution. The majority of these occur in South-East Asia.
• In the United Kingdom, outdoor air pollution is responsible for 36,000 premature deaths a year (Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollution).
• Air pollution costs the global economy 5 trillion USD in welfare costs annually.

• Travellers are advised to consult their doctor to determine whether they need specific medications, a breathing mask or inhaler. Travellers with a history of cardiac or pulmonary disease should seek confirmation prior to travelling that they are healthy to travel.
• If air pollution levels are high in a particular destination, travellers should consider a shorter stay in order to limit the exposure to pollutants.
• When it comes to travel, staying up to date with air quality advisories is important. In some cities, reports on air quality can be found on the official website or social media. In addition to this, BreatheLife, a Climate and Clean Air Coalition Initiative led by the WHO and UN Environment, has created an air pollution database that measures the air quality in over 4000 destinations (Available at: https://breathelife2030.org/the-issue/air-quality-in-your-city/).
• Anyone experiencing the symptoms described above should consider reducing physical activity particularly when outdoors. Individuals with pre-existing medical issues should avoid all physical exertion.
• A proper air-filtering mask can be essential when air quality is low. Research shows that masks effectively reduce the exposure to pollutants. In relation to this, the Chinese government suggests wearing a mask when the air quality index is over 200.
• In cities where pollution levels are higher than the average, a number of accommodations and public places are now making clean air their main feature. For example, hotel chains in Bangkok, Delhi, Seoul and Beijing, have air purifiers on offer and smog-free cinemas, oxygen bars and clean air cafes are becoming increasingly popular.

 GLOBAL HEADLINES

Nepal  Double explosion kills four in Kathmandu On 26 May, four people were killed and at least eight others were injured in three explosions setting off in the Ghattekulo and Sukendhara areas of Kathmandu and in the nearby Chandragiri Municipality. According to local sources, police have also defused devices in the Koteshwor and Gwarko areas, as well as other locations across the country, such as Pokhara and Annapurna. Initial investigations suggested that the explosive devices detonated by accident by the perpetrators, which were activists affiliated to the outlawed Communist Party of Nepal’s Maoist Centre CPN (M). The authorities believe that the activists were planning on setting off the devices during a general strike, also known as a bandh, planned on 27 May, which was called by the CPN (M) in the first place. The group has officially claimed responsibility for the blasts. In the aftermath of the attack, sources reported that the Maoist splinter group was under suspicion, as it was suspected to have carried out a similar attack in February. Solace Global Comment: Since the civil war ended in 2006, and the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord in 2006, Nepal has been relatively peaceful. The main arm of the Communist Party of Nepal (not affiliated to the CPN (M)) is even running in the elections in 2020. However, hard-lines factions such as the CPN (M) continue to stage sporadic attacks. As such, there is the potential for further violence. The risk is higher in the Terai region but may also target Kathmandu and other areas of the country.

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United States of America Arkansas and Mississippi rivers close to breaching levees in multiple states Many rivers in the central United States have been flowing out of their banks since the middle of March, causing growing concern and disruptions. A period of heavy rain at the end of May has caused levees to breach along the Mississippi and Arkansas rivers. This has resulted in thousands of homes being put in danger in the surrounding areas. On Friday, the Dardanelle Levee on the Arkansas River breached, but fortunately, the majority of the residents in the area at risk of flooding had already evacuated beforehand. As it stands, two other levees have seen worryingly high water levels; however, none have failed so far in the state of Arkansas. One levee has failed on the Mississippi River in West Quincy, Missouri. The concern in the days ahead, according to officials, is the ongoing pressure that the flooding has put on the barriers. The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management has stated that they have never held back so much water for such an extended period of time. Should any number of them fail, then the flooding is expected to affect thousands of homes along the Arkansas and Mississippi rivers. In an effort to tackle the water levels, the Morganza Spillway will be opened as soon as Sunday, 2 June. There has been some criticism that this measure has taken too long to be implemented, but authorities are concerned that the operation of the floodway itself can cause damage to properties in the surrounding region.

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Thailand  Two killed and at least 14 others injured in explosion in Pattani On 27 May, two people were killed, and 14 others were injured when an improvised explosive device detonated near a market in the Nong Chik district of Pattani. Local sources reported that the attackers intended to harm a crowd of shoppers in what was allegedly retaliation for the killing of a rebel commander by government security forces a few days earlier. Heightened security measures were reportedly set in place in Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and four districts of Songkhla. The Thai authorities claimed that a group of separatist insurgents was behind the attack and further related violence cannot be ruled out. Solace Global Comment: The insurgency’s roots in the south of Thailand date back to the country’s conquest of the Malay Sultanate of Patani in 1948. Since then, Thailand’s three southernmost provinces, Pattani, Narathiwat, and Yala have become a hotspot of ethnic insurgency which, since the start has led to 6,000 deaths. By the mid-1950s, a separatist insurgency was formed and, since 2004 got worse, with several groups launching regular attacks on civilians and security forces as well as tourist places and transport infrastructure. These have included arson, bombings and shootings. The conflict, even on a low-intensity level, is taking its toll on the local population and their livelihoods. Since 2006, Martial law has been in place in different areas of southern Thailand. This means that security forces can detain suspects without official charges and apply censorship to the media. Advice: It is advised against all but essential travel to the provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and southern Songkhla province due to the heightened threat of attacks and violence. Authorities suggest that attacks can be indiscriminate and there is a high chance for them to occur on symbolic dates or holidays. For this reason, individuals are advised to monitor local media reports and maintain situational awareness at all times, notably in public places. During this time, local security officials have enhanced measures to enforce the rule of law. It is recommended to adhere to instructions and safety measures, such as identity checks, and avoid open criticism of the current government or its officials.

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International Quds Day Protests and counter-protests anticipated on 31 May – 2 June International Quds Day (often known simply as Quds Day) is an annual event held during the final week of Ramadan, which was created by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 to express support for the Palestinians and oppose Zionism and Israel. Local events and celebrations in 2019 will take place between 31 May and 2 June in multiple locations worldwide; including in European, North American and Australian cities, under the auspices of pro-Iranian Muslim organisations. Fiery rhetoric calling for the elimination of the state of Israel is common at Quds Day events. In previous years, some events have attracted a range of anti-Israeli demonstrators including supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as neo-Nazis and conspiracy theorists. Hezbollah flags have been prominently flown in large numbers at several events. A recent rise in anti-Semitic attacks and rhetoric in the west has heightened sensitivities around Quds Day rallies, which are often described as anti-Jewish and have attracted bitter counter-protests. Authorities in several countries have indicated that open support of banned organisations at 2019 Quds Day events will result in arrests. Solace Global Comment: International Quds Day events have the potential to become violent; for example, events in the Palestinian territories have focused on the Israeli border in recent years and have attracted strong countermeasures from security forces attempting to disperse the large crowds. In 2018, an event in Tehran saw the burning of a large effigy of Donald Trump in response to his decision to move the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In Europe, Quds Day events can also often feature violent rhetoric directed at both Israel and the Jewish population. Most recently, a speaker at a 2018 Quds Day event in London, linked Zionists to the burning down of a residential block in London. At the 2018 rally in Berlin, antisemitic signs comparing Zionism with Nazism and calling for a boycott of Israel were widely distributed. Clashes are also possible, with counter protests planned. In 2018, counter-protesters clashed with police at many events worldwide. Social media sources indicate that Jewish groups in several Western cities are organising demonstrations in opposition to Quds Day events. Support for extremist organisations has also drawn members of the far-right to protest against Quds Day parades. At a 2018 event in London, members of a group of far-right football fans were cleared from the area after attempting to break into the area in which pro-Palestinian demonstrators had congregated in.

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Hungary Boat capsizes in Danube River killing at least seven people At 21:00 local time on 29 May a tourist boat carrying 35 people, including 33 South Korean nationals, collided with a cruise ship and capsized on the Danube River in Budapest in the vicinity of the Bulgarian Parliament. Search and rescue operations at the time were affected by strong currents and adverse weather. It has been reported that least seven people were confirmed dead and at least 21 others are missing; however, hopes have now all but faded that the remaining 21 people would be found alive. Authorities reported that none of the people on board were wearing life jackets and launched a criminal investigation into the cause of the collision. As a result, on 31 May, authorities confirmed that the captain of the cruise ship has been taken into custody. The vessel is set to be lifted from the river in the coming days.

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Canada Mandatory evacuation orders issued in Alberta province due to uncontrolled fires Ongoing wildfires in the northern part of Alberta province have triggered mandatory evacuation warnings in the Municipal District of Lesser Slave River, High Level, Mackenzi county, Northern Lights county, Wabasca, and Big Stone Cree Nation (Alberta province). Due to strong winds and dry conditions, the so-called Chuckegg Creek fire, located southwest of the town of High Level, is spreading at an uncontrolled rate. The authorities have closed Highway 1 between High Level and Hay River, in Northwest Territories and confirmed that a major bridge linking the Northwest Territories to southern Canada in the vicinity of Steen River has been closed, while the CN Rail railway bridge, also at Steen River, has burned down. It has been reported that emergency services operations are ongoing; however, containment efforts have been hindered by hot temperatures and strong winds. In addition to this, forecasts indicate that fires are expected to continue in the days ahead. Further evacuation warnings and road closures are expected. Solace Global Advice: Individuals residing under a wildfire warning are advised to adhere to authorities’ instructions and leave as soon as possible by the safest route available. Further information regarding travel disruptions, such as road closures, and evacuation notices are available at: https://511.alberta.ca/#:Alerts

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United Kingdom President Trump’s UK state visit, 3-5 June United States President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania are set to make a state visit to the United Kingdom between 3 and 5 June with a special ceremony, reserved to the heads of state, scheduled at the Buckingham Palace gardens. During his stay, the President will meet members of the royal family including the Queen, the Duke and Duchess of Cornwall and the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge and the Duke of Sussex. A private meeting with Theresa May and his participation to the D-Day commemorations on 5 June are also planned. Thousands of people are expected to gather in London to protest against President Trump. Groups such as the Stop Trump Coalition and Stand Up to Trump have announced that they will be holding demonstrations. During the president’s previous visit to the UK in 2018, an estimated 250,000 people protested in general opposition to Trump’s views on issues such as immigration, climate change and LGBT rights. An anti-Tump protest named Together Against Trump, is scheduled to take place on 4 June from 11:00 in Trafalgar square. Related demonstrations nationwide are also planned, including in Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh and Belfast. Advice: Clients and travellers should avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of delays and congestions. Be aware that clashes between police and protesters are also possible. Additionally, security around the president is extensive, be prepared for delays on roads and extensive security around locations visited by the president.

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Spain   Champions League Final between Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool to be held with record security in Madrid According to local police, Madrid will deploy a record number of police and security personnel ahead of Saturday, 1 June’s all-English Champions League Final between Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool. Authorities are expecting around 67,800 fans to attend the clash at the Wanda Metropolitano stadium. As a result, 4,700 police will be deployed alongside drones and other remote technology in an effort to help coordinate and keep watch over what the authorities are deeming as a “high risk” event. The police will be supported by civil protection personnel, fire corps and other emergency services, altogether representing the largest security operation that the city has held. As part of the anti-terrorism efforts, heavy vehicles will be banned from driving near the stadium and designated fan zones for 24 hours starting at 08:00 local time on Saturday, 1 June. Additionally, there are concerns that two groups of English fans, spending the day in the Spanish capital under good weather, may trigger alcohol-fuelled confrontations. In an effort to avoid clashes between rival fans; fans will, therefore, arrive at different airport terminals and take different metro lines to the stadium from their separate meeting places in the city – the Colon Square for Spurs fans, and the Felipe II Square for Liverpool supporters. Advice: The Spanish capital is likely to be heavily congested for the entirety of Saturday and Sunday. Clients attending the match, or in Madrid this weekend, should employ additional precautions.

• Adhere to all instructions issued by the police and other security officials.
• Play close attention to personal belongings and bags; pickpockets will use the event as an opportunity to target unsuspecting fans and travellers.
• Watch your drinks at bars and other establishments, many are likely to be busy and criminals may target drinks in the chaos.
• Use public transport to travel to the stadium, there will be no parking facilities near the stadium. Be aware that public transport is likely to be overcrowded, as such, ensure you leave an adequate amount of time to complete journeys and for unexpected delays.
• It is expected to be 33 degrees Celsius and sunny on Saturday during the day; ensure you drink enough water to stay hydrated, especially if also consuming alcohol.
• Download the Champions league leaflet for further information; https://finalmadrid2019.esmadrid.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Final-UEFA-Champions-League-1.pdf
• While, given the security, a terrorist attack remains unlikely, Madrid could be the target of terrorist attacks. Remain vigilant at all times and adhere to police instructions. If an attack occurs whilst you are in the stadium, listen carefully to the PA system; if told to evacuate, do so immediately and DO NOT wait around to film or take photos.

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 SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
30 May	Anguilla	Anguilla Day	LOW
30 May	Trinidad and Tobago	Indian Arrival Day	LOW
31 May	Worldwide	International Quds Day	MODERATE
1-2 June	Israel	Jerusalem Day	MODERATE
1 June	Kenya	Madaraka Day	MODERATE
1 June	Mongolia	Mother and Child Day	LOW
1 June	Spain	2019 UEFA Champions League football tournament final in Madrid	LOW
2 June	Italy	Anniversary of the Republic	LOW
3 June	Australia	Western Australia Day	LOW
3 June	Uganda	Martyrs’ Day	HIGH
4 June	Malaysia	King’s Birthday (public holiday)	MODERATE
5 June	Denmark	Constitution Day (Bank holiday)	LOW
5 June	Equatorial Guinea	President’s Birthday	MODERATE
5 June	Seychelles	Liberation Day	LOW
6 June	South Korea	Memorial Day	LOW
6 June	Sweden	National Day	NEGLIGIBLE
7 June	Bahamas	Labor Day	LOW
7 June	China	Dragon Boat Festival	LOW
7 June	Malta	National Holiday	LOW

• A fire in Mandawi Market, Police District 2 – resulting in localised travel disruptions and a heavy emergency service presence. With a tight filming schedule the early warning of travel disruptions in these areas allowed the team to mitigate against any delays to their itinerary. Our in-country partners were able to verify incidents with live updates and imagery.
• An official threat report regarding targeted suicide attacks – the news of a flash threat report was issued shortly after Jason and the film crew arrived in country. The report indicated that there was an elevated threat of suicide improvised explosive device attacks against unknown international venues, all expected to occur over the next three days. Solace recommended exercising caution and avoidance of embassy’s, NGO’s and other prominent international venues within the Shahr-e New district (PD09).
• Multiple demonstrations being held across Kabul – certain areas in which demonstrations occurred had a high risk of violence and/or attacks and required avoidance from the film crew.

 GLOBAL HEADLINES

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United States of America

Protests against legislation banning abortion in Alabama and other states

Thousands of people have turned out across America to protest against recent state legislation banning abortion in several states including Alabama, Mississippi, Ohio and Missouri. The #StopTheBans protests were organised by at least 50 civil liberties groups including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the National Association for the Repeal of Abortion Laws (NARAL). Protests took place outside law courts, state legislature buildings and main roads across multiple states. Social media identified at least 300 individuals attending a demonstration in Lincoln, New England. Several hundred people, including several leading Democratic politicians, protested outside the Supreme Court in Washington D.C. Other locations for demonstrations include the Massachusetts State House, Iowa, Birmingham, New York and West Hollywood. Participants have been identified holding placards saying: ‘Stop the war on women’ and ‘Keep abortion legal’. The protests were organised after multiple state legislatures made abortion illegal. In Missouri, lawmakers said abortion is illegal after the first eight weeks of pregnancy. Alabama’s governor signed the most restrictive law making it illegal in all cases, including in the event of rape and incest. Doctors who perform the abortion, as well as those getting it, can face up to 99 years in jail. This is the same punishment as those found guilty of murder or capital crimes. Other states, including Ohio, Louisiana and Kentucky have passed ‘heartbills’ making it illegal to get an abortion once a heartbeat is detected which is around the six-week stage, before women discover they are pregnant. The laws have been passed in what is seen as an attempt by the state legislature to generate a case in the Supreme Court and repeal the infamous 1973 Roe vs Wade decision. Roe vs Wade is the name of the landmark 1973 case in the Supreme Court in which judges gave women the right to privacy that protected a women’s ability to obtain an abortion. The decision to obtain an abortion must be made after weighing up the threat to the health of the mother versus pre-natal life.  The decision effectively ended state interference in the process. The case was brought to the Supreme court following the attempts of a Texan citizen to legally and illegally obtain an abortion. The individual attempted to obtain a legal abortion by stating she was raped but could not prove it so tried to have it done illegally. This failed as the facility had been shut down by the Texan state. The final decision was that Texas’s ban on abortion was unconstitutional. Solace Global Comment: The issue of pro-life versus pro-abortion has been debated ever since the 1973 Roe vs Wade decision. State legislators are attempting to get this case sent to the Supreme Court for discussion as the make-up of the justices in the court favours conservative values such as pro-life. The intention of the states is to have the decision repealed or at least amended to make it a state issue instead of a federal law. This would re-give the states the power to decide if citizens are allowed to get the procedure. Pro-abortion groups have declared their intent to continue protesting the issue and forcing the states to repeal the recent laws. Many leading Democratic politicians, including those who have put their names forward for the upcoming presidential elections, have vowed to apply political pressure on the issue in an attempt to repeal the recent decisions.

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Indonesia

Unrest has resulted in rioting and fatalities throughout the country

Tensions in Jakarta have subsided following civil unrest over the outcome of the election results which broke out between 21 and 22 May. Public transportation in central Jakarta has largely resumed as a result of the calming of the unrest, and offices have reopened in the capital’s downtown area. Efforts are now underway to clear the debris left over from the riots that occurred on the previous days. A police spokesman claimed that protesters had dispersed by 07:00 local time on 23 May. Restrictions were placed on the use of social media messaging applications, which will remain in effect until at least 25 May. Police have reported at least 257 arrests and some protesters are alleged to have admitted to accepting payments for engaging in violence ahead of the demonstrations. The authorities even stated that two rioters are alleged to have confessed to pledging allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS). However, it is unclear if this was an effort to discredit the protests by the authorities or if they genuine affiliates of IS. In total the unrest resulted in the death of eight people and more than 700 injuries. An Australian Broadcasting Corporation news crew also said it was attacked without warning by a mob. Nearly 60,000 security personnel were deployed Thursday 23 May and further security deployments are likely this weekend.

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Iran and Palestine

Quads Day

International Quds Day is an annual event held on the last Friday of Ramadan, 31 May, that was originally initiated by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 to express support for Palestinians and oppose Zionism and Israel. Protests are held across various cities mainly in the Arab and Muslim world against the occupation of East Jerusalem. Critics of Quds Day argue that it is inherently anti-Semitic. Marches outside of the Muslim world are smaller but have drawn sizable crowds. In London, demonstrations have drawn upwards of 3,000 people, while Berlin saw 1,600 protestors in 2018. Rallies were held in at least 18 cities across the United States in 2017. In Iran, the government sponsors and organizes Quds Day rallies, and these celebrations have had a long tradition of inciting anti-Semitic attacks. Additionally, in Iran, demonstrations against some of the country’s other rivals, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, do also occur. Advice: Quds marches should be avoided; these protests do incite attacks on traditional enemies and elevated levels of violence towards westerners cannot be ruled out.

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Libya

Rockets hit luxury hotel in Libyan capital

On 24 May, rockets hit a luxury hotel in Tripoli; understood to be the Rixos hotel. The Government of National Accord (GNA) have blamed the attack on the Libyan National Army (LNA) who are currently trying to capture the city. The interior ministry published pictures of the damage to the hotel’s roof. The hotel is understood to be where lawmakers opposing the offensive by LNA troops loyal to Khalifa Haftar have been meeting. Further details remain unconfirmed. To read more about the ongoing conflict in Libya, and the current impasse in the conflict, please have a look at our conflict report: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/conflict-analysis-understanding-libyan-impasse/

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United Kingdom

Theresa May has announced her resignation as the Brexit Impasse continues

British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced her resignation as a Conservative leader. The PM will step down on 7 June, allowing time for the Conservative party to decide her replacement. The two-week handover period will mean that May will be the country’s leader when US President Donald Trump makes his state visit at the start of June. Among the favourites to become the next prime minister are former London Mayor and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, who is a more hard-line Brexiteer and member of the European Research Group (ERG, a group of hard-line Brexiters chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg who believe in a more hard-line Brexit). Dominic Raab, another prominent Brexiteer and member of the ERG (though his constituency voted remain). Michael Gove, not a member of the ERG but did support leave during the referendum. Graham Brady, member of the ERG (though his constituency strongly voted remain). Jeremy Hunt, voted remain in the referendum, as did his constituents, and has been the foreign secretary since Johnson’s departure from the role. Other possible candidates include Andrea Leadsom, Rory Stewart, Penny Mordaunt and Sajid Javid. Of course, should an election take place, there is a chance that the next prime minister will not last long, with Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party pushing for this eventuality.

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Pakistan

At least five killed following an explosion at mosque during Friday prayers

Reports are stating that between two and five people have been killed,- and a further 25 have been injured following an explosion at the Rehmania mosque in Quetta’s Pashtun Abad area during Friday prayers. The area has subsequently been cordoned off by police at the scene and the victims have been transported to the Civil Hospital in Quetta for treatment. There have been no claims of responsibility at this time with a heightened security presence being deployed in the region and at other mosques throughout the country. Solace Global Comment: This is the fifth attack in Balochistan since the beginning of Ramadan. Most notably, on 12 May, at least five people lost their lives in a terror attack targeting the Pearl Continental in Gwadar. The region has seen regular violence in recent years with attacks claimed by Baloch separatists, Pakistan Taliban and local affiliates of the so-called Islamic State. Despite the violence, Balochistan is seeing a number of new infrastructure projects erected, including the port at Gwadar, as part of the $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, a joint venture between the Pakistani and Chinese governments.

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India

Modi wins re-election

After almost two months of voting, the Indian general elections, regarded as the biggest exercise in democracy worldwide, have been concluded. The results have been announced this week showing a sweeping victory of incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose party secured a parliamentary majority of 303 out of the 545 available seats, surpassing its performance of the 2014 elections by 21 seats. The main opposition leader, Raul Gandhi, has admitted defeat after winning only 50 seats and losing majority in his home region of Uttar Pradesh. For President Modi, however, this has been a historic victory, which will allow him to use the political momentum to push economic reform and reverse controversial regulation. Many, and especially among the Muslim minority consisting of 14 percent of the population, have expressed concerns over Modi’s government moving forward, as he had campaigned on a socially conservative platform that had clear religious lines favouring the Hindu majority, often reaching worrying populist tones. For instance, topics like the slaughter of cows and the end of the “privileges” of the Muslim population in India were central topics in his political platform. The opposition forces have unified in their accusations against Modi, particularly in damaging the economy with his controversial fiscal policy and the taxation of services and goods, while focusing more on spreading a nationalist and populist sentiment in the country. This is coupled with a rising instability in the region, which has seen growing tensions over Kashmir and deterioration of Indo-Pakistani relations, which are likely to be affected by an increasingly nationalist and pro-Hindu narrative in India. Advice: Continued caution is advised in the coming days and weeks as rallies both in support and against the election results are likely. Additionally, terrorist and militant groups may use the scaling down of security as an opportunity to conduct attacks in the country; especially in unstable regions such as Kashmir.

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United Kingdom

Cricket World Cup begins 30 May

The Cricket World Cup is set to begin on 30 May. The tournament will be held at ten venues in England and one in Wales. There are 10 teams taking part, including Pakistan, despite calls for the team to be banned following the 2019 Pulwama attack. There is expected to be enhanced security around venues; with special focus on the India v Pakistan match at Old Trafford. This will likely extend to team hotels and buses, given the experience of the Bangladeshi Cricket team’s near miss during the terrorist attack in Christchurch, and the 2009 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Pakistan. At this time, matches of note are the opening match between England and South Africa on 30 May. England are set to play Australia on 25 of June and India on 30 June at Lord’s and Edgbaston. India and Pakistan are set to play on 16 June. While the two nations have not held a bilateral Test match since the 2008 Mumbai terror attack, they have played a number of matches since; including in the 2015 World Cup. There have been some calls for India to boycott their match against Pakistan. The Cricket World Cup team have also put enhanced measures in places to tackle the threat posed by drones. The competition is the first major sporting event in the UK since the disruption caused by drones at Gatwick Airport last December. The shutting down of Gatwick following the sitting of a drone near its runway brought the need to add safeguards against drones. As a result, the security team have conducted analysis into likely areas within reach of each venue where drones could be flown from and have taken significant preventative steps. While the risk is still considered low, Premier League football clubs, cricket venues and others, have been warned about the possibility of a terrorist attack using drones, with experts urging that investment is made.

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SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
24 May	Bermuda	Bermuda Day	LOW
24 May	Bulgaria/Macedonia	Saints Cyril and Methodius Day	LOW
24 May	Ecuador	Battle of Pichincha Day	LOW
24 May	Eritrea	Independence Day	MODERATE
25 May	Africa	Africa Day	MODERATE
25 May	Argentina	Anniversary of 1810 Revolution	MODERATE
25 May	Jordan	Independence Day	MODERATE
25 May	Africa	Africa Day	LOW
26 May	Georgia	Independence Day	LOW
26 May	Guyana	Independence Day	LOW
26-27 May	Iran / Iraq	Martyrdom of Imam Ali	HIGH
26 May	Lithuania	Presidential election run-off	LOW
27 May	United States	Memorial Day	LOW
28 May	Armenia/Azerbaijan	Republic Day	LOW
28 May	Ethiopia	Downfall of Derg (Public Holiday)	LOW
29 May	Nepal	Republic Day	LOW
31 May	Islam	Laylat al-Qadr	LOW
31 May	Muslim World	Quds Day	HIGH

GLOBAL HEADLINES

Pakistan Gunmen attack five-star hotel in Balochistan On 11 May, three gunmen attacked the Pearl Continental hotel in the city of Gwadar, Balochistan, killing three members of staff and two security officers, and wounding at least six others. Following an eight-hour shootout with Pakistan security forces, all the gunmen were killed. A police spokesman said that only staff were in the hotel at the time of the attack. In addition to this, local sources reported that following this incident, a military operation was conducted to defuse explosive devices left behind by the attackers. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), one of the insurgent groups fighting in Balochistan, claimed responsibility for the attack. Solace Global Comment: Gwadar is the site of a large port under construction by a Chinese company as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Gwadar will link China to the Middle East. This has prompted discontent that has recently developed into episodes of violence, particularly from separatists who have long claimed that residents are not receiving benefits from this project. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has targeted Chinese workers in the region on multiple occasions. In November 2018, four people were killed in an attack on the Chinese Consulate in Karachi. Further related attacks are possible in the near term.

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Papua New Guinea Tsunami warning issued following magnitude 7.7 earthquake On 14 May, The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recorded a 7.7 magnitude earthquake off the Papua New Guinea island of New Britain. The tremor was centred around 28 kilometres northeast of the town of Kokopo and struck at a depth of 10 kilometres. The earthquake had triggered a tsunami alert for Papua New Guinea and the nearby Solomon Islands.  No reports of infrastructure damage have emerged from the area and the tsunami warning was subsequently lifted. Solace Global Comment: Papua New Guinea is located on the eastern half of the island of New Guinea and earthquakes occur regularly in the region due to its location on the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’; a hotspot for seismic and volcanic activity due to the friction between tectonic plates. Official statistics show that along the South Solomon trench, an area of the Pacific that includes Papua New Guinea, there have been more than a dozen quakes of magnitude 7.5 or more recorded since 1900.

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West Bank and Gaza At least 70 injured in protest along the security fence Health Ministry officials have reported that at least 70 Palestinians have been injured by IDF (Israeli Defence Force) soldiers firing along the border between Gaza and Israel during afternoon hours local time on 15 May. Thousands of Palestinians congregated at the border to mark Nakba Day, the 71st anniversary since the displacement of Palestinians following the creation of Israel in 1948. Local sources reported that rioters burnt tyres and sent incendiary devices into southern Israel, starting at least nine fires. Advice: Further clashes are highly likely over the coming days and a heightened security presence is expected along the Gaza-Israel security fence. Travel to the Israeli-Gaza border region should only be undertaken if required.

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United Arab Emirates Alleged sabotage incident targets tankers off the east coast of the United Arab Emirates On 12 May, four tankers were reportedly attacked near the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. The incident took place at around 06:00 local time and targeted two Saudi flagged vessels, a UAE flagged vessel and a Norwegian oil tanker. The perpetrator of the attacks remains unclear at this time; with investigations ongoing. The United States has alleged that Iran, or Iranian backed proxies, may have been behind the incident. However, no claims of responsibility or official announcement are available at this time. For more, please read our Maritime Brief on the incident: https://www.solaceglobal.com//news/2019/05/14/fujairah-maritime-brief/

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Saudi Arabia Drones allegedly target Saudi oil infrastructure On 14 May, two days after the Fujairah incident, unidentified drones allegedly targeted the major east-west oil pipeline deep in Saudi Arabia. The attack is understood to have resulted in some light damage to the pipeline and was immediately claimed by the Iranian backed Houthis fighting in Yemen. As a result of the attack, Saudi Arabian aircraft carried out airstrikes on Houthi controlled Sana’a in Yemen. The pipeline is vital to Saudi Arabia; allowing the kingdom to transport oil and gas from the eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This allows Saudi Arabia to bypass the Persian Gulf ports and the Strait of Hormuz when exporting oil. Solace Global Comment: The attack was the third known incident in a series of attacks on oil infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula. All the attacks have targeted infrastructure outside of the Persian Gulf; on 1 May an explosion or fire allegedly occurred at the port of Yanbu’s oil processing facility, this was followed by the 12 May and 14 May incidents in Fujairah and on the oil pipeline. All three of the attacks targeted ports and facilities within striking distance of Yemen; which would seem to back the hypotheses and claim that Houthis are behind at least some of the attacks. One important note, however, is that all the facilities targeted (Yanbu, Fujairah and the east-west oil pipeline) have all been oil facilities that allow tankers and companies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a vital choke point – being just over 50km wide – and access can easily be restricted or even stopped through the strait should Iran or another regional power decide to attempt it; a threat Iran has made. Given that these attacks also coincide with a ratcheting up of the tensions between Iran and the US, a scaling down of the east-west oil pipeline and the ports outside the Persian Gulf would see an increase in oil tanker traffic through the strait; increasing the risk from a blockade.

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Burkina Faso Six killed in church attack in Dablo On 12 May, at least six people including a priest were killed after gunmen stormed a church in Dablo, Sanmatenga province. The church was then set alight along with several vehicles and nearby buildings. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the attackers were between 20 and 30 in number. There was also an attack on a Roman Catholic procession on 13 May which resulted in four deaths. Schools and health centres have closed because of the violence, and the continuing insecurity and lack of funding are hampering the humanitarian response. Schools and health centres in the region have closed as a resulted of the violence. Militants associated with Jihadist groups that include Ansarul Islam, the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM) and the Islamic State in the Great Sahara (EIGS) have been blamed for a number of attacks in recent years. In relation to this, the number of deadly terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso have been escalating since 2016, and this is the third attack on a church in five weeks. In April 2019, gunmen targeted a Protestant church in Silgadji, six people were killed in the attack.

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Indonesia Heightened security and arrests ahead of election results Indonesia successfully held combined presidential and legislative elections on 17 April, in the biggest single-day election worldwide. The early election results are showing a victory by incumbent President Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, against the historical rival from the previous 2014 election, former General Prabowo Subianto; but the authorities will officially announce the results on 22 May. Although many independent observers and analysts have said the elections were fair, the opposition leader Prabowo has refused the defeat and made accusations of irregularities in the voting counting process, calling for supporters to rally in the streets on the day of the announcement. On 15 May, at least 10 people were arrested on suspicion of planning attacks during next week’s announcement of the result. Further intelligence reports indicate a risk of militant groups setting off bombs during the street protests. As tensions run high, security measures have been escalated and nearly 32,000 police and military personnel are on standby in the capital Jakarta. Police will also set up security cordons around all government buildings and independent institutions involved in the electoral process. It is highly recommended to avoid gatherings, government and military buildings. All non-critical travel to Jakarta should be avoided if possible. For more information on past and upcoming elections, consult our Global Election Review available here: https://www.solaceglobal.com//wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Global-Election-Review-Solace-Global-May-2019-1.pdf

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European Union European Parliament elections 23-26 May Elections to the European Parliament will take place between 23-26 May 2019 to elect the current 751 MPs. The political debate will likely centre around topics related to immigration, Brexit, and environmental concerns. A key issue is also the European Union, especially in relation to the widespread rise of right-wing parties within the political scene of a number of nations that include Poland and Hungary. National political parties are linked to alliances who in turn choose candidates for the role of Commission President in a process known as Spitzenkandidat. Solace Global Comment: There are no pan-European polls for the European elections, with national polls being used to project seats instead. This has been coupled with the late inclusion of the United Kingdom, making predicting a likely winner very difficult. It is widely expected that the two main alliances, the European People’s Party and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, will lose seats. Overall, it remains unlikely that the elections will result in violent unrest, but political rallies are to be expected, particularly in London and possibly Paris, depending on the evolution of the Yellow Vest movement.

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SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
18 May	India	Anniversary of 2007 bombing of Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad	MODERATE
18 May	India	Vesak Day (Buddhist holiday)	LOW
18 May	Somalia	Independence Day in Somaliland	HIGH
18 May	Turkmenistan	Constitution Day	LOW
19 May	Singapore	Vesak Day (Buddhist holiday)	LOW
19 May	Turkey	Ataturk Commemoration and Youth and Sports Day	LOW
20 May	Cameroon	National Holiday	MODERATE
20 May	Canada	Victoria Day	LOW
20 May	Cayman Islands	Discovery Day	LOW
20 May	Timor-Leste	Independence Restoration Day (Public holiday)	LOW
21 May	Malawi	National Elections	LOW
21 May	Montenegro	Independence Day	LOW
22 May	Yemen	National Unity Day	HIGH
23 May	Macedonia	Vlach’s National Day	LOW
24 May	Belize	Sovereign’s Day (Commonwealth Day)	LOW
24 May	Bermuda	Bermuda Day	LOW
24 May	Bulgaria/Macedonia	Saints Cyril and Methodius Day	LOW
24 May	Ecuador	Battle of Pichincha Day	LOW
24 May	Eritrea	Independence Day	MODERATE
25 May	Africa	Africa Day	MODERATE
25 May	Argentina	Anniversary of 1810 Revolution	MODERATE
25 May	Jordan	Independence Day	MODERATE

The International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia was created in 2004 and is now celebrated annually in over 130 countries. The date aims to foster solidarity within the community and highlight the violence and discrimination faced by individuals with diverse sexual orientations, gender identities, expressions, and sex characteristics.

The date of 17 May was specifically chosen to commemorate the World Health Organization’s landmark decision in 1990 to declassify homosexuality as a mental disorder. The day also serves as a symbolic tool to encourage decision makers and governments to fight against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia.

During the past 30 years, there have been great achievements for the protection and rights of the LGBT community, with a greater overall level of equality, acceptance and support. With Taiwan announcing on 17 May 2019 that they will legalise same-sex marriage, the first Asian country to do so. However, many countries still have laws against homosexuality and approximately 2.8 billion people still live in countries where identifying with the community still leads to criminal charges, violence and even death. For example, in China, LGBT restrictions have been tight, with the government claiming they pose a potential threat to social stability.

In total, there are 72 countries, mostly in the Middle East and Africa, in which being a member of this community or engaging in acts of this nature is still a criminal offence. In 13 countries or jurisdictions, all of which are Islamic and ruled by Sharia law, homosexuality is still a crime punishable with the death penalty. These include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Qatar, UAE and Mauritania.

Therefore, it is important for travellers to be aware that the laws, costumes and beliefs of the countries they are visiting can vary greatly from those they might be used to and the only way to avoid encountering problems is to be adequately informed and prepared.

Being conscious of these local laws and customs when visiting is vital, as well as being aware that it might be necessary to hide one’s sexual orientation when going to a country where homosexuality is illegal and subject to severe penalties. For example, most recently, Brunei received backlash over its introduction of death by stoning as a penalty for crimes including homosexuality and adultery. Following several protests and campaigns, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah stated the law will no longer be enforced, but the Syariah Penal Code Order (SPCO) was only suspended and not cancelled. Both male and female homosexuality remains illegal in Brunei and can be punished by up to 10 years in prison.

In countries with LGBT rights and where homosexual marriage is legal, levels of tolerance and acceptance within society may still vary hugely. In some places, it may be best for all couples to avoid overt public displays of affection so as not to attract unwanted attention. ILGA has a map, available at https://ilga.org/maps-sexual-orientation-laws, and other resources that can help outline country-specific information about these risks.

Even in LGBT friendly countries, travellers should take the same precautions as they would at home. For example, do not leave drinks unattended and be wary if you are offered drinks by a stranger; this advice is not restricted to the LGBT community but valid for all travellers. Employ caution when in gay bars or even when in countries considered safe for the LGBT community. Individuals have, in the past, carried out attacks which have ranged from verbal abuse and property damage to hate crimes and terrorist attacks. The most prominent recent example of this is the 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting that left 49 people dead. This incident was the largest and deadliest act of violence targeting LGBT people in the United States.

Should you receive unwanted attention, remarks or comments regarding your sexuality or gender identity, it is usually best to ignore them and move to a safe place. In general, people living in rural areas are more likely to have deeper traditional views, including on LGBT rights. As such, you are more likely to experience difficulties away from main urban centres. Depending on the country you are in, you may want to report any type of harmful harassment to the authorities. Reporting such actions may not be advisable in places like the UAE or Nigeria, as it could lead to imprisonment.

Be aware of what you post online before and during trips to countries where homosexuality is illegal. Consider setting your social media channels to private, or plan to avoid posting anything obviously supporting LGBT rights.

If you intend to meet other LGBT people while abroad, or use a dating app, find out the local situation and take precautions when meeting someone, police have been known to carry out entrapment campaigns. Be wary of excessively friendly help from locals as criminals have been known to exploit members of such communities. Check your accommodation bookings and ensure your hotel is accepting of same-sex couples.

During large demonstrations or events such as pride marches, travellers should exercise caution and report anything suspicious to the authorities. These events can also be targeted by counter-protest groups; on 8 May, the Cuban government announced they had cancelled the country’s 12th annual march against homophobia. The cancellation came amid concerns that individuals would be targeted for attacks. Five people are believed to have been arrested on 13 May for attempting to begin a pride march in Havana.

Finally, LGBT travellers should maintain the same situational awareness as all global travellers do. The primary key to mitigating travel risks is to be informed of them before the journey starts. Being prepared will mitigate the potential for being targeted, or inadvertently causing local offense. Most importantly, like all travellers with heightened risk profiles, it is important to know who to contact in the event of an emergency, whether it be your representative diplomatic mission, a company contact, or response agency.

According to the latest intelligence, on 12 May, four ships were targeted, two Saudi vessels and two others, off the coast of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Speculation remains rife regarding who was behind the attack, with US Intelligence blaming Iranian backed proxies. Despite continued social media chatter stating that the attack happened in the port of Fujairah, it appears the vessels were targeted off the Emirati coast. Regardless, operations at the port of Fujairah continue to function normally and have suffered no interruptions. At this time, there is no clear evidence to suggest that Iran or any other actor was behind the incidents; however, Iranian backed proxies are believed to be the main suspect. There have also been no official claims of responsibility.

The precise nature of the incident still remains unclear at this time. There continues to be a large amount of misinformation on social media stating that an attack occurred in Fujairah port. Indeed, any attack on the port has been denied by the port authorities, and both locals and port workers that have been contacted by Solace Global have stated that it does not appear that any major attack occurred in the port.

Instead, at this time, it appears that four tankers were attacked off the coast of Fujairah. It appears that these vessels, all oil tankers, were subject to some sort of “sabotage” attack whilst anchored near Fujairah; and not in the port.

At the time of writing, there have been no reports of injuries or fatalities on board the vessels and one photo appears to show a light spill of some kind; however, the authenticity of the image could not be verified. The UAE foreign ministry has declared that all acts of sabotage on civilian vessels which threatens the safety of those on board “is a serious development”. Investigations into the incident remain ongoing and, at this time, no group or actor has been blamed for the attack and no suspects have been identified; likewise, no group has claimed the attacks. Though US officials are speculating that Iran-backed proxies have some responsibility in the attacks.

The Iranian Foreign Minister has stated that the incident was “alarming and regrettable”. A senior Iranian MP has also stated that the saboteurs appear from “a third country” and has urged a probe into the incident. The UAE Ministry of Energy has stressed the need for increased cooperation within the international community, who are responsible to ensure the safety and security of oil tankers in the region, due to the possible serious impacts on the world economy should navigation in the area be disrupted.

An important note in the incident is that the UAE was flooded with media reports linked to Russia and Iranian servers and social media accounts that claimed the attack occurred on land at Fujairah’s port. While it remains unclear if these fake reports were part of the attack, they included that “seven to ten tankers were in flames”. There were also claims of the US or other aircraft flying over the port at the time. These claims were immediately refuted by the UAE government and the Fujairah port authorities. The Iranian state-funded broadcaster Press TV used the incident as an opportunity to link the “attacks” with the ongoing war in Yemen. Regardless, the incident appears to show a concentrated effort to spread misinformation during and after the incidents.

The incident comes at a time of heightened tension in the region. The US has deployed a carrier battle group, B-52 strategic bombers and patriot defence missile systems to the Persian Gulf. The deployment by the US is understood to be in response to a possible threat to US forces in the region by Iran in response to the increasing tensions over the collapse of the Iran deal.

The deployment of the forces increases the risk of a “miscalculation” by military forces in the Gulf. It is feared that an incident between the two countries’ navies could result in an escalation in the region, including a possible military confrontation. It has also increased the rhetoric from both sides with Iran describing the deployment as a potential “target” and not a threat. Indeed, a former US defence official warned on 12 May that the threat of a miscalculation by either side was now a very “real risk”.

Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf have been a rare occurrence since 1991. Saudi Arabia did not halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the 1981-88 conflict between Iraq and Iran when both sides attacked vessels in the Gulf; in what was known as the “tanker war”. Additionally, oil exports continued during the first Gulf War in 1990-91. The risk to tankers in the Straits of Hormuz region remains LOW for the time being. However, additional incidents or attacks will alter the security environment greatly, likely leading to the deployment of additional maritime assets by numerous countries, which, in turn, raises the risk of an international incident.

The most notable recent incident was in 2010, when a Japanese tanker, the M. Star, was damaged in an explosive attack whilst docked around 14 miles (22 kilometres) off the coast of Fujairah, UAE. This attack was claimed by the Brigades of Abdullah Azzam, a militant jihadist group. More recently, in September 2018, the Saudi military reportedly foiled attacks by Houthi militants at Jizan’s port. According to reports, the military foiled an attack by two explosives-laden remote-controlled boats at the port. The attacks were reportedly in response to Saudi air raids in Yemen. Additionally, in July 2018 a UAE navy vessel was reportedly attacked off the coast of Yemen by Houthi rebels. The vessel is understood to have caught fire and was close to sinking following the attack. Finally, in 2016, Houthi rebels attempted to hit a US destroyer that was launching cruise missiles on rebel positions.

The nearby Straits of Hormuz is bordered by Iran, Oman and the UAE and is the single most important waterway for global oil shipments; making it an attractive target for sabotage or other forms of attack on oil shipments. However, due to the waterway’s strategic importance, it is also one of the most heavily patrolled regions in the world; with significant American naval assets already in the area, not to mention the deployment of a new carrier group.

Click to view the Global Election Review – Solace Global – May 2019, you’ll notice this is a more in-depth look at each election – the new format replaces the initial free report previously posted.

GLOBAL HEADLINES

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Venezuela: Caracas Self-proclaimed Venezuelan leader Juan Guaido calls for protests and military uprising News outlets reported that self-proclaimed leader, Juan Guaido, called for an uprising in a push to take control of Venezuela and inviting the army to join the opposition. Prominent opposition activist, Leopoldo Lopez, also joined in the plea for a general uprising after being released from house arrest on 30 April, allegedly by military personnel. Lopez uploaded a statement on social media stating ‘the definitive phase has begun for the cessation of the usurpation, Operation Libertad. I have been released by the military to the order of the Constitution and President Guaido. I’m at La Carlota Base. Everyone to mobilize. It’s time to conquer Freedom.’ Juan Guaido urged his supporters to continue to protest and he announced that the Armed Forces are ‘clearly on the side of the people, loyal to the constitution’. Following Guaido’s statement, violent protests broke out across Venezuela, notably in the vicinity of the Generalísmo Francisco de Miranda Air Base in Caracas. The latest reports suggest that at least four people were killed in the clashes with security forces, and more than 100 protesters were injured. While the unrest has calmed somewhat, there is a possibility that this latest wave of unrest could escalate further after the Venezuelan government denounced the movement as a coup d’état and promptly attempted to put down the demonstrations; exacerbating the widespread disruption to travel and services across the country. The security situation remains fragile and a heightened military presence is to be expected, notably in Caracas. Advice: Travellers are advised to defer all but non-essential travel to Venezuela due to the recent developments. Travellers in country are advised to shelter in place and to monitor local news outlets for any further details, make contingency plans to evacuate should the security situation deteriorate further.

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Nigeria: Adamawa state 26 killed in Boko Haram attack in north-eastern Nigeria Local media reporting indicates that suspected Boko Haram militants have attacked the Kuda Kaya community in Madagali, Adamawa State and killed 26 people. Eyewitness reports indicate that the militants arrived on motorcycles late afternoon on 29 April. Upon arrival, the militants fired indiscriminately at civilians and burned a significant number of buildings. The attack occurred in the vicinity of the Sambisa Forest, a stronghold of the Boko Haram militant group. Boko Haram were also responsible for similar attacks in the area in April. Advice: There is a high risk of terror attack in north-eastern Nigeria. Local security forces have limited capabilities in countering this threat in the region. Travel to this area should only be undertaken if business essential and with heightened security risk mitigation measures.

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United States: North Carolina Fatalities reported following a shooting incident at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNCC) According to local reports, two people were killed and four were wounded in a shooting incident at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNCC) in Charlotte on 30 April. The suspect, armed with a pistol, opened fire near the Kennedy Hall on the university campus. Officers were able to quickly respond to the incident, ordering a lockdown of the building and establishing a cordon around the university campus. A former student with no criminal background was later identified as the gunmen and there was no reason to believe anyone else was involved in the shooting. At present, three of the four people wounded remain in the hospital in critical condition.

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India: Odisha State Cyclone Fani makes landfall in Puri, 3 April According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Tropical Cyclone Fani, after spending days gaining strength over the Bay of Bengal, made landfall near Puri, Odisha State, at approximately 08:00 local time on 3 April. Authorities have evacuated more than a million people from coastal communities and low-lying areas of the state in the past 24 hours. Current reports indicate that at least six people have been killed while heavy rains and strong winds will continue throughout the day. Major disruptions and damage have already been reported. The authorities have also suspended 200 coastal trains, causing additional strain on the relief operations. Adverse weather has also affected the areas of Barsana and Mathura in Uttar Pradesh as well as Bharatpur in eastern Rajasthan. Evacuation orders were given in neighbouring West Bengal and the decision to close the airport in Kolkata was made as a precaution. Updated reports suggest that Tropical Cyclone Fani will reach Bangladesh on 4 April and gradually weaken; though further rainfall and strong winds are expected in the region. Advice: According to disaster management authorities, Tropical Cyclone Fani is the strongest storm to hit India since 2014. The state government has set up a 24/7 monitoring committee to manage all cyclone-related emergencies. All non-critical travel to the affected areas should be avoided. If currently in-country, visitors should adhere to all instructions issued by the authorities and comply with all evacuation orders. Due to the collapse of functioning infrastructure, extensive disruption is likely. Electricity outages are highly likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Food and water shortages are also possible.

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Benin: Cotonou Controversial election sparks unrest in Cotonou Tensions are mounting as anti-government protests continue in the country, this has led to violent clashes between protestors and law enforcement in the capital Cotonou. On 2 May, one person was reportedly killed, while several others were injured after security forces opened fire on individuals that had gathered outside the presidential palace, demanding the resignation of President Talon. The military has also deployed armoured vehicles in response to protestors erecting roadblocks. The demonstrations were triggered when opposition parties were prevented from running in the recent elections on 28 April, due to changes to the electoral code introduced in 2018 that set higher qualifying criteria for their participation in the election. The ruling was backed up by the Supreme Court who said the results of the election were binding. While the electoral code introduced by the National Assembly had the aim of addressing the extreme political fragmentation that characterises the multiparty system, it had the effect of excluding all parties except for two, the Bloc Républicain and the Union Progressiste, both of whom back the sitting President. While President Talon denied any wrongdoing or intention to suppress opposition, protesters led by former President Thomas Boni Yayi demanded his resignation and started what has been defined as the worst political crisis in Benin since the end of the dictatorship in 1990. Several reports suggest that protestors in Kandi set fire to a factory and attacked firefighters as they responded. The unrest is set to continue with protestors declaring their intent to take to the streets over the weekend particularly in the capital, Cotonou. There is a heightened security presence surrounding key areas of Cotonou including but not limited to the Presidential residence and the airport. Flight providers have warned that if the violence escalates risking the security of the airport then flights will be cancelled. Advice: Non-essential travel should be deferred at this time, continue to monitor the latest developments surrounding the unrest and consider deferring even essential travel should the situation continue to deteriorate.

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Islam: Ramadan 5 May – 4 June The Islamic month of Ramadan is expected to begin on 6 May and end on the evening of 4 June 2019; during this month, the Muslim population worldwide is expected to fast during the daylight hours as well act in a charitable manner. For more information, read our full report here: https://www.solaceglobal.com//report/ramadan-2019/

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Thailand: Bangkok Thai King coronation, 4 May King Maha Vajiralongkorn, commonly known as Rama X, will be officially crowned nearly two years after he ascended the throne on 4 May in Bangkok. The official ceremonies will last for three days from 4  to 6 May. They are a mix of different Buddhist religious ceremonies and Hindu Brahmin rituals, symbolically marking the king’s consecration as a Devaraja, a “God-king” and the upholder of Buddhism in Thailand. King Maha Vajiralongkorn inherited the throne upon the death of his father King Bhumibol Adulyadej in 2016 and after a long mourning period. Bangkok will be highly congested during the ceremony, as all civil servants have been ordered to attend and hundreds of thousands of people are expected to walk the streets wearing royal symbols. A heightened security presence is expected across the city, specifically surrounding any public appearances and the procession. Travel disruptions are also highly probable due to associated road closures and traffic restrictions.

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South Africa: Cape Town 2019 South African general elections The population of South Africa will go to the polls on 8 May to select the new members of its National Assembly and provincial legislatures. This will be the sixth election since the end of apartheid and will determine the next South African president and the future of one of the biggest economies in the continent. In fact, this marks the first vote since Jacob Zuma, in power since 2009, was ousted from office in February 2018 after a series of corruption scandals. This election represents a decisive moment for the political future of South Africa: while the sitting President Cyril Ramaphosa is attempting to legitimise his power after having replaced Zuma, a rising radical opposition party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), is gaining significant support among the populous. While the ANC, historically known as the “freedom party”, still enjoys a sizable majority, internal fractures and turmoil have put a strain on the party’s cohesion. According to polls, however, the most notable shift shows positive gains by the EEZ, which doubled its approval from 7 percent during the 2014 elections to a sizable 14 percent. Their belligerent approach to the political debate is likely to produce some level of unrest in the run-up and aftermath of the elections, particularly in connection to the widespread economic grievances. On 3 April, the township of Alexandra in Johannesburg experienced protests and demonstrations against the living conditions of the poor and the inefficiency of the government’s service delivery. Protesters also expressed disillusionment regarding the impact of the May elections on the day-to-day life and priorities of the South African population. The year 2018 saw serious unrest which caused disruption nationwide, this is also likely to occur in the election period. During the 2014 general election, South Africa experienced severe electoral violence, including episodes of political murder and intimidation, which is likely to occur again during the 2019 election.

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SIGNIFICANT DATES & EVENTS

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
4 May	Japan	Emperor Abdication Holiday (Public holiday)	LOW
4 May	Namibia	Cassinga Day (National holiday)	MODERATE
4-6 May	Thailand	Coronation of King Vajiralongkorn	MODERATE
5 May	Ethiopia	Patriots’ Victory Day	MODERATE
5 May	Japan	Constitution Memorial Day	LOW
5 May	Kyrgyzstan	Constitution Day	LOW
5 May	Netherlands	Liberation Day	LOW
5 May	Panama	General Elections	LOW
5 May	South Korea	Public Holiday	LOW
6 May	Australia	Labour Day (Northern Territory)	LOW
6 May	Bulgaria	St. George’s Day	LOW
6 May	Global	Ramadan	LOW
6 May	Lebanon	Martyrs’ Day	LOW
6 May	Syria	Martyrs’ Day	HIGH
6 May	United Kingdom	Bank Holiday	LOW
7 May	Belarus	Radonitsa (Commemoration Day)	LOW
7 May	France	Cannes Film Festival	LOW
7 May	Israel	Memorial Day	MODERATE
7 May	Kazakhstan	Defender of the Fatherland Day	LOW
8 May	Czech Republic / France / Slovakia	Victory in Europe Day	LOW
8 May	South Africa	National Assembly and Provincial Legislature Elections	MODERATE
8 May	South Africa	National Elections	MODERATE
8 May	Turkmenistan	National Heroes Commemoration Day	LOW

Solace Global are happy to announce their continued support for Vitus Pro Cycling Team, Powered By Brother UK in 2019. Solace Global are a risk management company with headquarters in Poole, Dorset, specialising in travel risk management, in-country security, intelligence, tracking and crisis management. Solace Global began their relationship with the Vitus team at the 2018 Tour de Yorkshire – an international race broadcast live in its entirety on national television. Emily Roberts, Managing Director of Solace Global, took a front row seat at the Tour de Yorkshire, riding alongside team manager Cherie Pridham in the lead car during a thrilling second stage. Emily was delighted to extend the company’s relationship with Vitus Pro Cycling Team, Powered By Brother UK.

“While our mission at Solace Global is to provide comprehensive travel risk management and security services that prepare, protect and assist people and assets in the event of an incident or emergency, our values are aligned to those of the Vitus Pro Team.” “I witnessed the team put those values into action at the Tour de Yorkshire, racing with commitment, discipline and team spirit to compete with the elite teams of world cycling.” “Those shared values made our decision to extend Solace Global’s relationship with the team an easy one to reach. We couldn’t hope for better ambassadors to share our values with a wider audience.” Solace Global provides a host of specialist security and risk management solutions, coordinated from its 24/7/365 response centre in Poole.

An impressive portfolio of case studies demonstrates Solace Global’s reach and effectiveness. Supporting NGOs evacuating out of Sudan, bespoke intelligence products to help inform decision making, Media Crews filming amongst cartels and mafia bosses, retailers with young buyers flying around the world previously with little to no tracking, monitoring or consideration for safety and large corporates with a need to operate in hostile environments safely. There are few places Solace do not find themselves in and are constantly innovating to help their clients best manage their risks, in accordance with their individual needs and requirements.

Cherie Pridham, the owner and manager of Vitus Pro Cycling Team, Powered By Brother UK, said she was delighted to have the support of Solace Global in the 2019 season; a campaign in which her significantly strengthened squad of riders is expected to feature prominently in Britain’s biggest bike races. “Solace Global’s business strategy relies upon the utmost professionalism, and I’m proud to say that we hold identical standards for Vitus Pro Cycling Team, Powered By Brother UK,” Pridham said. “Solace began our relationship by demonstrating their commitment to innovation, and have continued with the same reassuring support that their clients rely on. I’m delighted that Solace Global will again be our partners in 2019.”  

Sri Lanka: Nationwide      Coordinated bombings kill hundreds in Eastern Sunday terror attack A series of coordinated bombings targeting three churches and three luxury hotels took place on 21 April, Easter Sunday, in the cities of Colombo, Negombo and Batticaloa. The first 6 blasts, exploding around 08:45 am local time, were aimed at maximising casualties, targeting people gathering for Easter mass and breakfast in the hotel restaurants. Two more bombs exploded later in the afternoon in Colombo, in a large-scale jihadist terror attack. It was the deadliest strike suffered by Sri Lanka since the end of the 26-year-long civil war against Tamil separatists, marking the end of a decade of relative peace and hope for a future of security, democracy and rule of law. On Tuesday, ISIS claimed official responsibility for the attack through its news agency Amaq, without giving any evidence and claiming the attack was a retaliation to the attack in New Zealand. ISIS supporters had already honoured the Easter Sunday attacks on their media channels, framing it as rightful revenge for the anti-Muslim shooting that took place on 15 March in Christchurch as well as the war in Syria. Sri Lankan authorities consider local radical Islamist group, the National Tawheed Jamath, as responsible for the terror attacks: this was also indicated in an intelligence memo warning the government of the plans by the militants to strike churches, apparently informed by foreign intelligence services. The government increasingly seemed to have failed to pre-emptively react to the terrorist attack, although the police and the intelligence services were reportedly informed of the threat on 4 April by Indian and American intelligence operatives. The tip-off detailed the plans by National Thawheed Jamaath to carry out a terror attack on the churches and reportedly did not reach the top officials in the government, fatally preventing any counter-terrorism operation. For more information, read our full report on the terror attack here.

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United Kingdom: London Extinction Rebellion protest ends, 25 April Over the last two weeks, the environmentalist group Extinction Rebellion has held a number of protests and sit-ins around the world demanding the recognition of the ongoing climate emergency. The largest event has been in London and travel disruption within the city has been significant. The protests were centred around five key locations in central London including Mable Arch, Parliament Square, Waterloo Bridge, Oxford Circus, and Piccadilly Circus. So far over 1,000 people have been arrested. However, on 24 April, Extinction Rebellion announced that they would be ending their protests and blockades early on 25 April. They argued that their point had been made and that the climate conversation was back in the national agenda. A closing event was held at 18:00 BST at Hyde Park’s speakers corner. The protests have been largely peaceful although damage was done to the Shell HQ in London. Hundreds of solidarity protests occurred in cities all over the world although it is unclear if they will continue beyond the 25 April. A police presence is likely to remain in key location over the weekend.

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Mozambique: North Cyclone Kenneth makes landfall in northern regions bringing heavy rainfall and high winds Extreme winds and heavy rain have started to cause damage across northern Mozambique. Kenneth made landfall in Cabo Delgado, about 100 km (62 miles) north of Pemba at the end of the day on Thursday. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 200 km/h (124 mph), the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans. Forecasting services are expecting a slow-moving cyclone, which could remain in the area at the north of the country close to the border with Tanzania, with several days of continuous rain that are likely to cause severe flooding and disruption. Storm surges of around 3-5 meters have occurred in coastal areas around Cabo Delgado. Schools and airports across the region have closed in preparation for the storm. Cyclone Kenneth is the first storm of this strength to hit Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado since records began 60 years ago. Before reaching Mozambique, Kenneth killed three people in the Comoros Islands. Sustained heavy rainfall of 250mm (10 Inches) is expected across most areas with some areas anticipated to receive 1,000mm (40 inches). Mozambique is still reeling from cyclone Idai which killed over 1,000 people and left tens of thousands displaced in the south of the country at the start of April.

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Russia: Vladivostok President Putin hosts North Korean leader for first bilateral summit North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia on an armoured train for a bilateral meeting with President Putin on Wednesday 24 April and was greeted by a military band. The two leaders met for the first time on Thursday on Russky Island and reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing relations, deescalate tensions and improve the security environment in the region. Russia also expressed the desire for a multilateral approach to the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and the reopening of the Six-Party Talks, which were held between 2003 and 2007, but failed to reach an agreement. This consultation comes shortly after the failure of the second US-DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) meeting that was held in Hanoi in February and was cut short by President Donald Trump over a disagreement regarding the terms of the denuclearisation process. Many believe this to be a retaliatory move by Kim Jong Un, who reportedly executed four foreign affairs officials after the summit failure. The meeting of Putin and Kim puts additional pressure on the US to be more flexible in future talks. Kim’s trip also adds to his new image of international statesman rather than despotic dictator, having now successfully put the diplomatic ball back in the US’s court.

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Myanmar: Hpakan Landslide in a jade mine in Kachin State kills 54 At least 54 people are suspected to have been killed in a mudslide that took place in a jade mine on 22 April at 23:30 local time. According to local authorities, a mud filter collapsed at a mine in the Hpakan region in Myanmar, trapping the workers while they were sleeping. Rescue operations began early on Tuesday with three bodies recovered from the rubble, but the authorities do not expect to find any more survivors. The area is known to produce some of the highest quality jade, which is exported to neighbouring China and fuels a notoriously dangerous illegal trade network, generating an estimated 31 billion USD every year. The miners, most likely small jade pickers, are believed to be internal migrants who dug through the debris produced by big mining companies to find the precious mineral. Incidents of this kind are a frequent reality in Myanmar with dozens dying every year, especially during the monsoon season in mines that are opened without adequate considerations over health and safety regulations. According to statistics, the overall death toll has been rising in the past years, particularly as the establishment of a civil government in 2010 led to the lifting of several international sanctions previously affecting jade exports.

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South Africa: KwaZulu-Natal province Heavy rains result in deadly flooding and mudslides in South Africa Torrential rain that lasted days and culminated with a severe downpour on Monday resulted in mudslides, flooding and structures collapsing in the coastal province of KwaZulu-Natal, in the southeastern region of South Africa. Emergency services are working to provide aid, while authorities have declared a death toll of approximately 60 people. The flooding severely disrupted businesses and caused more than 1,000 people to be displaced. Dozens of people have been taken to hospital, and search and rescue teams are looking for more survivors under the rubble of collapsed buildings. The flooding has also affected the neighbouring East Cape Town province, killing three people. Severe weather warnings remain in place and the risk is considered high particularly in coastal areas. On Sunday, the heavy rains led to the death of 13 people by causing a church in KwaZulu-Natal to collapse during Easter mass.

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Spain: Nationwide Spain will hold a snap election on Sunday 28 April On 28 April, Spain will hold the third election in 4 years, in the latest attempt to form a stable government amidst polarising issues such as corruption, immigration and Catalan separatism. The election was called by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after less than a year since his inauguration, due to the repeated rejections of its yearly budget by the Parliament. Currently, the polls show the traditional Socialist Party in the lead. The ever-shifting political stances among Spain’s multiparty system and a fragmented electorate makes it virtually impossible for the leading party to form a strong majority, perpetuating the chronic instability in the government. For years, in fact, the power has been held by main traditional parties, such as the Socialist and the Popular Party, which historically governed alone or with smaller parties, generally avoiding a bipartisan coalition. However, the recent fragmentation in Spanish politics has sparked the emergence of smaller political factions, such as the centrists Ciudadanos, Unidos Podemos and the right-wing Vox. This division in the electoral support has made it impossible for the main political forces to gain a definitive majority in the elections and the radicalisation of the smaller political parties also contributed in making the coalition more volatile.

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Japan: Kyoto Japanese emperor to step down on 30 April On 30 April, Japan’s Emperor Akihito, who has reigned since January 1989, will step down from the Chrysanthemum Throne. This is the first abdication in Japan’s monarchy in two centuries. Emperor Akihito has stated that his health is his primary motive for his abdication, particularly following his heart surgery in 2012. Celebrations and events are planned across the country for the abdication ceremony that will be held on 30 April. This ceremony will be a small private gathering with only 300 guests. Japan’s Imperial Household Agency lists Emperor Akihito as the 126^th emperor of Japan with verified accounts of this family stretching back until the sixth century. The role is now largely symbolic as the emperor has no say in politics, but holds great significance to the Japanese populous. Akihito’s eldest son, 59-year-old Crown Prince Naruhito, will take the throne the following day in a series of solemn ceremonies, receiving the imperial regalia – an ancient mirror, sword and jewel – considered crucial evidence of an emperor’s legitimacy.

Australia: Melbourne Nightclub shooting leaves one dead and three injured Local media sources reported that at approximately 03:20 local time on 14 April, a shooting incident took place outside the Love Machine nightclub on Malvern Road in the Prahran district of Melbourne. At least one person, a security guard, was killed in the drive-by shooting, with three others sustaining serious injuries. Police and paramedics attended the scene and cordoned off Malvern Road between Chapel Street and Surrey Road in order to carry out their investigations. At this time, there have been no suggestions the attack was terror-related and no arrests have been made. Localised travel disruptions are expected to continue in the coming days, as the crime scene investigations are ongoing.

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United Kingdom: London Extinction Rebellion Protests, 15-29 April The environmentalist group Extinction Rebellion has announced a number of protests and sit-ins around the world demanding the recognition of the ongoing climate emergency, with the largest one taking place in London. The protests will consist of the obstruction and blockage of some key streets and areas in London including Marble Arch, Oxford Circus, Waterloo Bridge, Parliament Square and Piccadilly Circus. The organisers have planned to hold demonstrations until 29 April, as well as hold a number of events across the sites demanding the UK government to pledge to reduce its carbon emission to net zero by 2025. The demonstrations are part of a global campaign, with acts of peaceful unrest expected to take place in 80 cities across 33 countries in the coming days. On 17 April, climate change protesters climbed on top of trains at Canary Wharf station to carry out their protests. Protesters also confirmed plans to cause tube disruptions on the London Underground. At the time of writing, more than 400 peoples have been arrested and police presence has been significantly increased, particularly in the Westminster area. The severe disruption caused to commuters and businesses has led to calls to the Metropolitan Police to take more radical action to tackle the protests, especially in the city centre, claiming severe losses in revenue over the past days.

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France: Paris Fire destroys Notre Dame Cathedral and triggers travel disruptions and evacuations The fire at Notre-Dame Cathedral, believed to have been caused by onsite construction workers, has caused significant damage to the building, with much of the roof and its famous ‘arrow’ spire collapsing in. The fire appeared to have started around 7pm local time on 15 April and authorities have stated that the cathedral was 30 minutes away from complete destruction if the firefighters hadn’t intervened and successfully put out the blaze after a 15 hour-long effort. Authorities have established a security perimeter around the incident site – with road closures that are in effect for much of the 4th arrondissement and portions of the 5th arrondissement, including bridges and roads adjacent to the cathedral on the Ile de la Cite. All residents of Ile de la Cite were evacuated including tourists staying at affected hotels. There have been no reports of any injuries at this time.

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Democratic Republic of the Congo: Lake Kivu At least 150 people missing after vessel capsizes Local news reports suggest that at least 150 people are still missing after a vessel capsized on Lake Kivu in the Democratic Republic of Congo on 15 April. Local sources say the vessel was carrying approximately 200 people, 37 of whom have been rescued and 3 bodies have been recovered. Local security forces and emergency crews are working at the scene to locate the missing passengers – although many are presumed to have drowned, as such, the death toll is expected to rise over the coming days. Deadly boat accidents occur frequently on the Congo River and on the country’s lakes where water is a primary means of transport for residents outside its major cities.

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Libya: Tripoli At least six killed and 36 wounded in rocket attacks across the capital Local sources reported that at least six people have been killed and another 36 suffered injuries in the aftermath of an exchange in rocket shelling between LNA and GNA forces. Several neighbourhoods in Tripoli were damaged by the Russian Grad rockets, the worst affected being the southern district of Abu Salim. Among the dead and injured are women and children, unconfirmed reports also suggest an entire family was killed when a rocket directly hit their home. The strikes took place in the context of a prolonged battle for the capital after General Haftar first ordered his forces to march on the capital on 4 April.  Following the attacks, hundreds of civilians took to Martyr’s Square to display their anger and condemnation. The head of the Supreme Council of State, Khalid al-Mashri, also issued a statement condemning the indiscriminate shelling of Tripoli neighbourhoods. The Government of National Accord has declared that it intends to supply documents to the International Criminal Court in order to prosecute General Haftar as a war criminal. Further armed clashes, artillery and airstrikes are highly likely over the coming days, as the conflict in and around Tripoli escalates. According to the World Health Organization, at least 174 people have been killed and 756 wounded since the LNA started its offensive. ADVICE: Continue to defer all non-essential travel to Libya; if in country limit non-essential movements and monitor the latest alerts.

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Qatar: Doha Afghan government officials to hold talks with Taliban representatives in Doha, 19-21 April National media outlets are reporting that the Afghan government is planning to send 250 delegates for talks with Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar, between 19 – 21 April. It will be the first time that Afghan government officials and Taliban representatives will meet since failed peace talks were held in Pakistan in 2015. The three days of talks will come amid a push by the United States to reach a peace agreement with the Taliban after a drawn-out eighteen-year war. A heightened security presence is expected in Doha surrounding the event as it could be seen as a high-profile target by terrorist groups. ADVICE: Travellers should anticipate an increased security presence and enhanced security measures in Doha during the talks. Associate localised travel disruptions such as road closures and checkpoints are anticipated.

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South Asia: Multiple countries Adverse weather results in fatalities and disruption in Afghanistan, India, Iran and Pakistan Torrential rain has led to widespread disruption in Afghanistan, India, Iran and Pakistan. In India, storms and flash floods have killed at least 33 people across the northern regions of the country. Currently, the most affected area is Madhya Pradesh. Heavy rains also caused flash flooding in Pakistan with at least 50 people killed and hundreds more injured. Major disruption was reported in north-western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and southwestern Baluchistan provinces, where infrastructure was completely or partially damaged and hundreds have been forced to move to a safer place. Adverse weather also downed trees and power lines affecting both communication and travel. In Afghanistan, weather-related disruptions were reported in 16 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. In the western province of Herat, search and rescue operations are underway to locate a number of people missing. Iran has also been significantly impacted by flooding. At least 76 people have died after torrential rainfall, which has caused damages of around 2.5bn USD since 19 March. The country has been struggling to process aid and relief due to US sanctions. Iran’s Red Crescent has repeatedly complained that the US banking sanctions re-imposed last year make it impossible to receive donations from outside the country. ADVICE: Travel to the impacted regions may be difficult due to the inundations impacting local infrastructure. Be aware that further flooding and mudslides are likely in the region. Where possible, avoid travelling on potentially flooded routes unless necessary.

Significant Dates & Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
19-22 April	Worldwide	Easter Celebrations	LOW
19 April	Eswatini	King Mswati III’s birthday	LOW
19-22 April	Judaism	Passover	LOW
19-20 April	South Africa	Old Mutual Two Oceans Marathon, Cape Town	LOW
19 April	United States	Anniversary of the terrorist bombing in Oklahoma City (1995)	LOW
19 April	United States	Anniversary of the end of the siege of the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas (1993)	LOW
20 April	Uruguay	Public Holiday: Landing of the 33 Patriots	MODERATE
21 April	Brazil	Tiradentes Day	MODERATE
22 April	Ukraine	Presidential Election Runoff	MODERATE
22 April	South Africa	Family Day	LOW
23 April	Brazil	Sao Jorge, Rio de Janeiro	MODERATE
23 April	Turkey	National Sovereignty and Children’s Day	LOW
24 April	Armenia	Genocide Memorial Day	LOW
24 April	Niger	National Concord Day	HIGH
24 April	Togo	Day of Victory	LOW
24 April	Australia	Anzac Day	LOW
25 April	Egypt	Coptic Holy Thursday	MODERATE
25 April	Egypt	Sinai Liberation Day	MODERATE
25 April	Eswatini	National Flag Day	LOW
25 April	Italy	Saint Mark’s Day	LOW
25 April	Italy	Liberation Day	LOW
25 April	Portugal	Liberty Day	LOW

 

 

GLOBAL HEADLINES

Libya: Nationwide The Haftar LNA advances on Tripoli, sparking clashes with the forces of the UN-backed Government of National Accord On 3 April the Presidential Council declared a state of emergency in Tripoli and the Government of National Accord (GNA) mobilised allied forces following reports of the Libyan National Army (LNA) advancing towards the capital. The LNA responded to the command of the rival government based in the east of the country and led by General Khalif Haftar. Deadly clashes have since then taken place in the southern suburbs of Tripoli; with both sides claiming advantage. Pro-LNA sources had claimed that their forces had captured Qaser Bin Ghashir and Souq al-Khamis (Sog Al-Khmies) and attempted to take control of Tripoli International Airport (TIP) from troops loyal to the GNA. On 6 April, it was reported that the Libyan Air Force carried out targeted strikes against LNA positions at Mizdah and Sog Al-Khmies, near to Garyan city. Fighting has led to a death toll of at least 75 people and 323 wounded. At the time of the writing, the conflicting forces remain locked in a standstill in the outskirts of the city, while over 9000 people have been displaced in the capital according to the UN. The international community has called for a ceasefire, as concerns rise over the impact of the conflict on Libya’s oil production capability and the spike in migration through the Mediterranean Sea.

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Sudan: Khartoum Sudanese army arrests President Omar al-Bashir and takes charge On 11 April, the Sudanese defence minister announced the military had removed from office and arrested President Omar al-Bashir, following months of protests against his rule and a rise in the cost of living. A Supreme Security Committee will run the country for a two-year transitional period followed by elections. For more, read our travel advisory here.

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United Kingdom: London Julian Assange arrested in Ecuadorian embassy in London Julian Assange was arrested in the Ecuadorian embassy in London on 11 April. The WikiLeaks founder was granted refuge in 2012 while on bail in the UK over sexual assault allegations against him in Sweden. Assange was found guilty of breaching bail and is due to be sentenced next month. The arrest comes on behalf of the United States authorities, who have charged him with involvement in computer hacking together with Chelsea Manning. Journalists and free speech advocates around the world have referred to the arrest as unconstitutional and a threat to journalism rights. Shortly after his arrest, a number of Assange’s supporters gathered in London in protests. In Ecuador, demonstrations took place outside the Foreign Ministry building in Quito, chanting against President Lenin Moreno, who suddenly revoked his seven-year asylum and demanding Assange’s release. Most recently, supporters also gathered in front of the Opera House and outside the UK consulate in Sydney. It its likely that protests will continue until his sentencing in a months time.

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India: Nationwide General Elections, 11 April – 19 May On 11 April, tens of millions of Indian nationals started voting on the first day of the general election. Indians in 20 states are beginning a seven-phase vote to elect a new lower house parliament scheduled to last until 19 May. With 900 million voters, this is set to be the largest election ever seen. In the 2014 elections the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a historic landslide and it was favoured to win again in 2019. However, critics have argued that the promises have not met expectations, making these elections a meter to gauge if Prime Minister Narendra Modi still holds the trust of the population. The BJP faces several challenges from regional parties and a resurgent Indian National Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi. The lower house of parliament has 543 elected seats and any party/coalition needs a minimum of 272 members to form a government. The elections are taking place in the context of the recent clashes with the neighbouring Pakistan after a suicide attack killed 40 Indian paramilitary police members in Kashmir in February. Elections got off to a troubled start, with sporadic threats and violence reported in several locations across the country. Notably, the leader from the Telugu Desam Party and one from YSR Congress were killed during election-related violence in a village in the Anantapurami district, in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. It was also reported that the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist) had carried out two attacks in Chhattisgarh’s Narayanpur district. Across the constituencies, there were hundreds of reports about electronic voting machines malfunctioning and some citizens were not on the ballot rolls.

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Pakistan: Quetta Sixteen dead and multiple injured following an explosion at Quetta’s Hazarganji At least 16 people were killed and another 30 wounded following an explosion at a market in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta. The blast occurred at approximately 11:30 local time and targeted the city’s minority Hazara community. The Hazaras are a Shia Muslim minority who make up an important minority group in Pakistan and across the border in the Hazarajat region of Afghanistan, where they are the third largest ethnic group. Buildings located nearby were also damaged in the explosion. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack; however, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Sunni militant group known to target the Hazara community, is believed to be responsible. ADVICE: Terror groups in Pakistan maintain the ability to conduct attacks by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) or strategic armed assaults. There remains an underlying potential for low-profile terror attacks to be conducted on high profile targets. It is always recommended to maintain situational awareness and report any suspicious behaviour to local authorities.

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Afghanistan: Nationwide Taliban Spring Offensive 2019 In April, the Afghan Taliban announced the beginning of their 2019 spring offensive, with the leading operation being named ‘Victory’. The spring offensive is organised by the Military Commission of the Islamic Emirate which acts as a central headquarters for the Taliban’s guerrilla operations. The declaration of the new fighting season comes annually as the winter snow melts and allows the Taliban to gain control of district centres and target government facilities. Airstrikes have been launched against the Taliban in retaliation. Since the clashes began, Taliban militants have overrun several checkpoints in the Bala Murghab district. The district came under intense insurgent pressure with officials claiming that five security points have fallen, and, if no reinforcements were deployed, the district would fall under Taliban rule. At least 21 soldiers have also been taken prisoner by insurgents during the attacks. Violence has also erupted in northern province of Baghlan with several killed, 18 civilians injured, and a doctor killed when explosives were detonated at a health facility in Pul-i-Kumri City. The clashes have risen whilst Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. envoy, is tasked with forging a peace deal with the Taliban. During his time in Afghanistan he spoke with national leaders and stakeholders. Khalilzad is expected to meet with Taliban and Afghan officials in the coming days in Qatar. Despite this, the Taliban have been refusing to meet with leaders. Since 2014, around 45,000 security forces have been killed. In previous offensives, both schools and community centres have been closed across Afghanistan following warnings over possible attacks.

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Indonesia: Nationwide General elections, 17 April On 17 April, Indonesia will vote simultaneously for a new president and parliament. The incumbent President Joko Widodo, who is supported by the two largest parties, will stand for re-election alongside well-known Islamic figure Nahdatul Ulama. The choice of the incumbent to run with one of the most influential Muslim figures in Indonesia appears deliberate, since the previous presidential elections of 2014 saw his advantage greatly damaged by accusations questioning his religious beliefs and his stance towards China. His opponent will again be former General Prabowo Subianto, accompanied by former Jakarta deputy governor and business-man Sandiaga Uno as a running mate. Subianto is currently trailing in the polls with 32 percent against a 55 percent of the expected vote. Economic and religious concerns are the main issues faced by the two candidates, with growing worries over economic stability, inflation and, most dangerously, the rising populist sentiments along religious lines. Indonesia has seen a rise in religious intolerance and terror-related incidents in recent times, culminating with a series of suicide attacks against Christian churches in May 2018 that prompted the introduction of a comprehensive anti-terrorism law. There is a possibility of militant groups trying to disrupt the vote or for violence to occur, especially against religious minorities in its aftermath. Individuals are advised to monitor local media for updates on the political situation. Avoid all demonstrations and gatherings, as well as openly discussing political matters in public. In-country travel disruption is possible as a result of the civil unrest and it is, therefore, recommended to allow additional transport times and be aware of alternate routes to minimise potential delays.

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Thailand: Nationwide Songkran festival, 13-15 April The Songkran festival is the traditional Thai New Year’s Day and is celebrated from 13-15 April. Additional public holidays may be declared by the government depending on which days of the week the days of Songkran fall on. The most famous aspect of the Songkran celebrations is the throwing of water. As such, Songkran is often known as the Thai Water Festival. The custom originates from spring cleaning aspect of Songkran and part of the ritual was the cleaning of images of Buddha. Using the ‘blessed’ water that cleaned the images to soak other people is seen as a way of paying respect and bring good fortune. ADVICE: As one of the largest celebrations in Thailand, Songkran celebrations attract hundreds of thousands of tourists. Large gatherings are anticipated notably in Khao San Road and Silom Road in Bangkok, Patong Beach in Phuket, and Thapae Gate in Chiang Mai. Police statistics show that during Songkran, traffic fatality rates increase. In-country travel disruption is possible, therefore it is recommended to allow additional transport times and be aware of alternate routes to minimise potential delays.

Significant Dates & Events

Date	Country	Event	Potential for Unrest
12 April	Liberia	National Redemption Day	MODERATE
13-16 April	Asian Calendar	Thingyan Water Festival	MODERATE
13-17 April	Thailand	Songkran Festival	MODERATE
13 April	Venezuela	Military Reserve and National Mobilization Day	HIGH
14 April	Bangladesh	Bengali New Year	MODERATE
14-15 April	Cambodia	Cambodian New Year	LOW
14 April	Honduras	Pan American Day	LOW
14 April	India	Ambedkar Jayanti commemorations	MODERATE
15 April	North Korea	Kim Il-Sung’s Birthday	HIGH
15 April	Puerto Rico	Jose de Diego’s birthday	MODERATE
15 April	United States	Boston Marathon	LOW
17 April	Brazil	Anniversary of the massacre of El Dorado dos	MODERATE
17 April	Gabon	Women’s Day	MODERATE
17 April	Indonesia	Presidential and legislative elections	MODERATE
17 April	India	Mahavir Jayanthi	MODERATE
17 April	Syria	Independence Day	HIGH
18 April	Zimbabwe	Independence Day	HIGH
19 April	Eswatini	King Mswati III’s birthday	LOW
19 April	South Africa	Old Mutual Two Oceans Marathon, Cape Town	MODERATE
19 April	Uruguay	Public Holiday	MODERATE
19 April	United States	Anniversary of the terrorist bombing in Oklahoma City (1995)	LOW