US-Iran tensions escalate in Iraq

SITUATION SUMMARY
On 3 January, the Pentagon confirmed a targeted airstrike had been conducted at Baghdad International Airport. The target of the strike was one of Iran’s most powerful commanders, General Qasem Soleimani, who spearheaded Iran’s elite Quds force and their operations throughout the Middle East. The airstrikes resulted in seven killed, including the deputy commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
The Pentagon has attributed numerous attacks on coalition bases in Iraq in recent months to the Iranian General, and conducted the airstrike as a “decisive defensive action to protect US personnel abroad” and to deter “future Iranian attack plans”. The Green Zone in Baghdad was locked down by Iraqi security forces after the attack to prevent further immediate escalations in tensions. There were reports of celebrations in Tahrir Square by anti-government groups in Iraq, who by and large oppose Iranian involvement in Iraqi affairs.
Iran has responded calling the airstrike an “act of international terrorism” and a “foolish escalation” amid current tensions between the two powers. The Iranian government has indicated that it considers the US strike to be a targeted assassination and that it will retaliate. Three days of national mourning have been announced in Iran.
The Iraqi Prime Minister has stated he considers the assassination of Muhandis an “attack on the Iraqi state, government and people”. The Pentagon has confirmed that US President Donald ordered the strike in response to intelligence suggesting that Soleimani was planning attacks against US forces; the deployment of approximately 750 US soldiers to the Middle East had already been announced but may be increased.
SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT
The assassination airstrike occurs in a context of escalating reprisal actions in Iraq between the US and Iran. On 29 December 2019, a coordinated series of US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iran-backed Iraqi militia group Kataib Hezbollah (KH), part of the Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), killing at least 25 militants. These strikes followed the death of an American contractor when dozens of rockets, fired by KH, hit an Iraqi military base. In response, the KH leadership vowed a robust response targeted at US forces in Iraq. The Iraqi government strongly condemned the airstrikes, characterising them as a violation of sovereignty.
Protests were sparked on 31 December outside the US Embassy compound in Baghdad’s ‘Green Zone’ following the funerals of KH fighters who had been killed. Supporters of KH and other Shi’ite PMF units rallied outside the embassy. Protesters attacked the compound, breaking down the gates and setting fires at the facility, forcing the withdrawal of all but security staff who fired tear gas. The demonstrators remained in place until 1 January when, following the deployment of hundreds of additional US troops to the embassy compound, they withdrew.
The assassination airstrike represents a significant escalation and is likely to provoke a strong reaction both from Iran and its proxy forces in the Middle East. There is heightened potential for a resumption of anti-Western protests in Baghdad, along with an upsurge in Iranian-backed militant activity regionally. The US Defense Secretary has stated further militia attacks are expected and the US reserves the right to take preemptive action to prevent them. In the midst of Iranian and US actions, Iraq remains fragile with a fractured political and sectarian society, and a growing concern of a resurgence of extremist groups, such as the Islamic State. There is a strong likelihood Iraq will become more unstable in the coming days and weeks.
SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE
- The security situation in Iraq remains unstable and may deteriorate quickly.
- Ensure robust contingency plans are in place, and that evacuation actions are reviewed.
- Monitor media and Solace Secure alerts for developments and remain up to date; diplomatic service support may be delayed or disrupted so plan accordingly.
- Heightened security measures should be anticipated regionally in areas around government buildings and transport hubs such as airports; check the flight status before departing for the airport and do not check out of accommodation until onward travel is confirmed.
- It is recommended to avoid all political gatherings and rallies in the region, whether planned or spontaneous. If in an area of spontaneous unrest, it is recommended to leave the area immediately and seek a secure shelter or refuge.
- If in the general area affected by airstrikes, remain in doors, away from windows and doors and if possible, move to the ground floor or basement.
Earthquake in Southern Philippines – Alert Plus

SITUATION SUMMARY
On 15 December, at approximately 06:00 UTC, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake was recorded six kilometres south of Magsaysay, southwest of Davao on the island of Mindanao. The earthquake measured a depth of 22.4 kilometres and was felt across Davao del Sur, North Cotabato, South Cotabato and Sarangani provinces.
The majority of casualties and damage were reported in the Davao del Sur province. Initial figures show that at least five people were killed in Digos and Padada, where a three-storey building collapsed leaving several people trapped under the rubble. In the town of Matanao, a six-year-old child was killed after a house collapsed. An undetermined number of people were also injured, mostly near the epicentre in Magsaysay.
The quake also resulted in power outages in the affected areas, including the General Santos Airport (GES). Footage released on social media also showed an electrical transformer exploding in the city of Davao.
In the aftermath of the event, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not issue any tsunami warning. However, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) warned of further aftershocks. At the time of writing, at least 10 strong aftershocks were recorded, with the strongest being a 5.7 magnitude, centred south-southwest of Sulop at 06:52 UTC.
Relief operations are underway and further reports of casualties and damage are to be expected over the coming hours and days. At the time of writing a number of people remain missing.
SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT
The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. According to the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the highest environmental risks in the country are landslides, tsunamis, volcanoes and cyclones. However, due to the country’s location along the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, the Philippines is also prone to strong deadly earthquakes that often result in substantial damage.
Between October and November, Mindanao island has been hit by multiple and intense earthquakes, which led to casualties and considerable damage, notably in Davao del Sur and Cotabato provinces. On 29 October, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck14 kilometres east of Bual, killing at least ten people and damaging buildings and infrastructure, which had been already weakened by a 6.3 magnitude foreshock approximately ten days earlier. On 31 October, a 6.5 magnitude aftershock was recorded south of Kisante; the death toll was then raised to 24, at least 500 were reported injured and dozens are still missing. In the aftermath of these events, experts stated that tremors would occur until December. Since the Cotabato earthquake swarm, more than 349,000 people have been in need of assistance and 58,000 have been living in evacuation shelters, makeshift shelters and even open spaces.
These recent tremors are likely to have worsened the current humanitarian situation. Moreover, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and utilities, a long-term population displacement is anticipated.
SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE: What to do after an earthquake?
-Anticipate aftershocks. These can greatly change in magnitude and can sometimes be more intense than the initial tremor itself. It is recommended to adopt the same safety measures, including “drop, cover and hold”, should these occur.
-Check if you are injured and help others if you have been trained to do so.
-If you are trapped, it is important to remain calm and try to use any means to call for help.
-Do not enter any damaged buildings, as further shocks may result in more damage to already weak structures.
-If currently in a damaged building, move away and not re-enter until the authorities confirm it is safe to do so.
-Once you are safe, monitor media (and Solace Secure) updates for emergency information and instructions. Follow all the advice issued by the local authorities.
-In the aftermath of strong earthquakes, there can be several hazards. Check your surroundings for gas leaks, broken water pipes, damaged wires, hazardous materials or broken glass.
-If possible, wear protective clothing and sturdy shoes to prevent injuries. Maintain situational awareness at all times.
-Abide by all instructions issued by the authorities.
-Be prepared for disruption (possibly extensive) in the region as a result of the earthquake.
SECURITY SUMMARY: The Philippines
In addition to the seismic risk in the region, it is important to note that Mindanao suffers from a significant threat of Islamic terrorism. The risk of attacks is higher in the southern Philippines and the island of Mindanao specifically, where a number of terrorist organisations are still active. These include Aby Sayyaf (an Islamic State affiliate), the Maute group, the New Peoples Army (NPA), Jemaah Islamiyah, and Bangsmoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. Reports indicate that clashes between militants and government forces are frequent in the remote areas of Cotabato and Davao del Sur provinces. Attacks and kidnappings can occur across the Philippines and target foreigners, institutions and security forces.
Following an attack on government facilities by ISIS insurgents, martial law was imposed in 2017 and will remain in place until at least the end of 2019. Moreover, following the earthquakes in October and November, the Department of National Defence heightened the security measures in the affected provinces. These include the presence of checkpoints to ensure the safety of the people living in evacuation centres.
Crime is a significant concern and the most reported common types are theft, assault, robberies and gang-related crimes. Certain areas present a higher risk; these include Sarangani Province, North Cotabato Province, South Cotabato Province, General Santos City, Sultan Kudarat Province, Lanao del Sur Province, Lanao del Norte Province and Iligan City.
As such, due to the high rate of criminality and ongoing insurgency, travellers to the Philippines should consider the use of enhanced security measures. This includes the use of prearranged airport meet and greet services and a locally-vetted driver. Furthermore, the use of travel-tracking technology, supported by a live intelligence feed, is also recommended in order to keep abreast of security developments whilst in-country.
New Zealand Eruption – Alert Plus

SITUATION SUMMARY
On 9 December, at approximately 14.30 local time, the Whakaari/White Island Volcano in the Bay of Plenty erupted, sending a large plume of smoke into the sky.
Authorities reported that up to 47 people, including New Zealanders and foreign tourists, may have been on the island when the eruption occurred. At the time of writing, six fatalities have been confirmed while 30 people have been rescued, some with critical injuries.
However, the death toll is expected to rise as a number of people remain unaccounted for, with search and rescue operations still underway to assess the exact number of fatalities. New Zealand police deputy commissioner has stated though that emergency personnel have been not able to access the island, which is covered in ash, as the current situation is unsafe due to the potential of further eruptions.
The Defence Force (NZDF), who have been called in to provide assistance, are expected to deploy drones to assess the situation as soon as possible, however, reconnaissance flights, carried out by police rescue helicopter and NZDF aircraft, showed no sign of life on the island.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern arrived in the town of Whakatane, the nearest on New Zealand’s North Island to meet with council leaders. During a press conference, the Prime Minister stated that she will be travelling to White Island on 10 December. Police are also said to be investigating the eruption, but have stressed this is on behalf of the Coroner and is not a criminal investigation at this time.
A magnitude 5.3 earthquake has also struck off the coast of New Zealand’s North Island less than 24 hours after the eruption. There is also a reported 50 percent chance of a secondary eruption, hampering rescue efforts.
SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT
White Island, also known as Whakaari in the Maori language, is New Zealand’s most active volcano and has been built up by continuous volcanic activity for over 100,000 years. In 1914, a fatal eruption killed 12 people. The most recent eruption prior to the 9 December eruption, a short-lived eruption occurred in April 2016, though no fatalities were reported then.
Despite the volcano’s activity, it has been a popular tourist destination in recent years with numerous tours available. Reports indicate that most of the people on the island at the time of the eruption were passengers of the cruise vessel Ovation of the Seas, visiting Tauranga.
White Island’s eruption wasn’t completely unexpected. Academics have previously expressed their concerns over the suitability of the island as a tourist destination, with official reports showing that volcanic unrest has been occurring for several months prior to the disaster. In November, the New Zealand hazard monitoring site, GeoNet, reported a period of unusual volcanic activity, and raised the alert level for the island.
While relief operations are underway, GeoNet has taken its live cameras on White Island off its website. Additionally, many tour agencies that operate in the area uploaded their “dark sites” with updated contact information and details of the emergency.
During the eruption, a large plume of white smoke was visible from the mainland. Airlines in New Zealand confirmed that flight operations have not been affected at this time; however, an orange aviation colour code warning was issued due to hazardous ashfall. Additionally, a no-fly zone in the area was put in place due to the threat of further eruptions.
SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE
-Further large eruptions cannot be ruled out in the coming hours, days and even weeks. Avoid the vicinity of White Island
-Individuals should listen for, and follow, any emergency information and alerts issued by the local authorities, as well as monitor local media for updates. The Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management website has information available here.
-While unlikely at this time, a large follow-up eruption may result in evacuations on the nearby north coast of North Island. Individuals in the immediate area are advised to have an emergency supply kit prepared with the necessary supplies should they need to evacuate at short notice.
-Effects of a volcanic eruption can be experienced many kilometres from a volcano. Individuals near the affected area are advised to be aware of the potential for ashfall; this can be a health hazard notably if suffering from pre-existing breathing difficulties. In the event of ashfall, wear respiratory masks as well as suitable clothing to protect the skin.
-An emergency operation centre has been set up at Whakatane Hospital, the closest town to the island in the Bay of Plenty. Road closures were reported in Whakatane. As such, travellers must avoid designated restricted zones.
-Airports remain open but flight operations might face delays or cancellations should further eruptions occur.
Bolivia: President Seeks Asylum in Mexico amid Protests

SITUATION SUMMARY
Evo Morales has resigned as the President of Bolivia on 10 November and, a day later, the ousted president accepted political asylum in Mexico and departed from the country, being transported to the airport by military helicopter. Along with the president, numerous senior officials have also resigned.
The president’s decision to step down is reported to come after the interventions of the chief of the armed forces, General Williams Kaliman. The general urged Morales to step aside in the interests of peace and stability.
Bolivia’s military commander has also ordered troops to back up police following recent clashed with Morales supporters – clashes that resulted in some 20 injuries. The supporters were following Morales call to “resist” the “dark powers” that had forced him to step down.
The unrest has resulted in disruptions to flights in recent weeks, particularly at El Alto airport in La Paz. Additionally, travel throughout the country has been made difficult by the protest.
The resignation has left a number of questions about what is next for Bolivia, with many fearing a prolonged period of unrest, uncertainty over the next president and even claims of a coup.
SOLACE GLOBAL ANALYSIS
The president’s ousting has left the security situation in Bolivia extremely volatile and uncertain. Morales, who had been in power since 2006, had won plaudits for fighting poverty and improving Bolivia’s economy but drew controversy by defying constitutional term limits to run for a fourth term in October’s election, the initial spark of the current crisis.
The election was alleged to have been rife with “irregularities”. Indeed, an audit of the results by the OAS said it had found “clear manipulations” in the country’s voting system and that it could not verify the result of the 20 October election. The announcement coincided with General Kaliman’s call for Morales to resign.
The president’s resignation has left the country in chaos, with Morales supporters and adversaries clashing on the street in recent days and his departure failing to pacify the demonstrations. The power vacuum left by his resignation has also left numerous questions regarding the political future of the country and whether this will result in an unsolvable political crisis, with the political and military establishment fighting over power.
Unless the military and police are able to restore order, it is a very real possibility that the country may now see a period of sustained unrest. Business continuity and travel are going to have to be altered for the foreseeable future until at least fresh elections are held.

ADVICE
- Multiple government foreign offices have advised against all but essential travel at this time.
- Those in country should review their itineraries and consider departing the country at their earliest convenience.
- Businesses should consider evacuating non-essential staff at this time.
- If in need of urgent assistance, those in country should contact their embassy.
- The disruption to airport operations has made planning travel in and out of the country difficult. Thus, travellers and businesses should ensure to have flexible itineraries.
- Both travellers and businesses should continue to monitor local and international media reports regarding the unrest and plan accordingly.
- Minimise movement in country, avoid locations impacted by the unrest.
- Do not travel at night and ensure you have a robust journey management plan in place if travel is essential.
- Keep all identification documents on you as well as a fully charged phone and a spare battery pack.
Diwali 2019 and Relating Travel Risks

SITUATION SUMMARY
Diwali, also know as Deepavali, is the annual Hindu festival of light that celebrates the spiritual victory of good over evil, and light over dark. In the days leading up to and during the festivity, people decorate their homes with colourful decorations and oil lamps, called diyas.
Festivities last for five days and the date is calculated according to the Hindu lunar calendar. This religious festival also marks the beginning of the Hindu New Year and it usually falls between October and November; this year’s date is Sunday 27 October.
Diwali is celebrated largely in India (mainly in northern regions) where it is the most important holiday on the calendar, originating as a harvest festival. Each region has its own traditions and practices as well as deities, though, some elements are common everywhere.
In India, the most popular places to experience Diwali are Delhi, Jaipur, Amritsar, Varanasi, and Kolkata. The festival of light is also observed in Bali, Fiji, Guyana, Pakistan, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Suriname and Trinidad & Tobago. Public events also take place in countries that have a large Indian population such as the United Kingdom and on many Caribbean islands.
SOLACE GLOBAL ANALYSIS
Although Diwali is considered peaceful and is popular among various cultures there do remain several potential risks.
The most prominent threat to travellers is petty criminality. During festivities, the large crowds allow pickpockets to operate freely.
Environmentalist demonstrations against the tradition have occurred in the past over the amount of smog that the number of firecrackers produces. Despite this, protests are normally small in size and often cause minimal disruption, especially when compared to the actual event. Minor injuries from stray crackers have been reported over the years.
Due to the event’s high-profile nature, there is a risk that terrorist groups may target festival celebrations. While terrorist groups mainly focus attacks on the Indian government and Indian military personnel, attacks on areas frequented by westerners and religious festivals cannot be ruled out. Diwali festivities last fell victim to such attacks in 2005, attacks were also attempted and foiled in 2011.
On 23 September 2019, local media reports stated that insurgent groups from Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan were planning to target this years Diwali, these reports have not been verified by official sources at this time.
WHAT TO DO;
- Travellers to India are advised of the ongoing threat of terrorism. Terror attacks occur with little warning and often with indiscriminate targeting. As such, individuals should take particular care in the days leading up to and during Diwali. It is important to maintain situational awareness and report anything suspicious. – In the event of an attack travellers should follow the advice of RUN – HIDE – TELL – FIGHT.
- Travellers should also be aware of an increase in regional travel disruption both during the event and up to two weeks following. Diwali is followed by school holidays; overcrowding and congestion are a regular feature during this time.
- Large crowds should be avoided as much as possible. While they may initially seem peaceful, there is the potential for gatherings of this kind to escalate into stampedes and potential violence.
- Pickpockets can operate in crowded areas, keep an eye on your belongings and avoid overt displays of valuables.
- Diyas and fireworks are prominent during Diwali and part of the celebrations. Many people have reported receiving burn injuries and some clothing and textiles such as ‘dupattas’ or Indian scarves can easily catch fire.
- Travellers are advised to wear earplugs as some crackers are extremely loud and sound more like explosions.
- Given the gatherings of millions of people during this period, all travellers should employ enhanced medical and hygiene measures.
- The bursting of firecrackers worsens air pollution levels; the smog hangs low in the air on Diwali night increasing the risk of respiratory problems such as bronchitis and asthma as well as skin allergies, some travellers may wish to take a face mask.
Ecuador Demonstrations and The State of Emergency

SITUATION SUMMARY: Ecuador Demonstrations and The State of Emergency
Thousands of protesters have been taking to the streets in Ecuador over the past ten days. While the unrest was initially triggered by the elimination of petrol and diesel subsidies, it has now developed into an anti-government demonstration. Protests in the capital have become increasingly violent, with clashes between the demonstrators and police, tear gas, stone-throwing and tyre burning. Thus far approximately 700 people have been arrested.
A state of emergency and curfew were declared on 3 October and 8 October. The President has also moved the seat of government from the capital to Guayaquil.
After a number of Red Cross volunteers and ambulance were attacked in several locations in recent days, Ecuador’s Red Cross has suspended paramedic and ambulance services.
Despite the violence, labour union members and indigenous people have also mobilized and marched peacefully. Additionally, thousands gathered in the city of Guayaquil to condemn the violence; many wearing white clothes and carrying white flags. Indeed, the level of violence has shocked many ordinary Ecuadorians. The military has also denounced the violence, appealing to Ecuadorians to do the same, stating that protests should not be used as a cover to carry out vandalism and other crimes.

SOLACE GLOBAL ANALYSIS
The unrest has resulted in a state of emergency and a curfew, with military personnel being deployed nationwide. Security forces also often use tear gas to disperse crowds. Further large scale demonstrations are highly likely over the next few days, especially in the Andean region.
The violence started last week after fuel subsidies were interrupted, a decision by President Moreno that has led to price increases. Initially, the unrest focused on transport workers but quickly spread to students and then to indigenous communities. The unrest represents an ominous sign for the government since
it was a similar wave of protests that led to the resignation of former President Lucio Gutiérrez in 2005.
However, in 2005, the military played the ultimate role in bringing down the president. As such, the military’s backing for Moreno is vital. Indeed, the president appears aware of history repeating and has announced publicly that the government is negotiating with indigenous groups.
Despite this, the political crisis shows no signs of ending any time soon. Labour leaders called for a general strike on Wednesday. However, it is not needed, economic activity in much of the country has already been ground to a halt by the unrest, looting, blockades and disruption. Additionally, Ecuador’s main oil pipeline, which runs from the Amazon region to Balao port on the Pacific ocean, has ceased operations due to indigenous protesters disrupted production facilities.
ADVICE
- Consider delaying non-essential travel to the country at this time.
- If in-country, avoid all demonstrations, as some have turned violent, and limit movements near key protest sites. Be prepared to stand fast and remain inside your hotel during peak times of unrest.
- Be aware that food and water shortages might increase the levels of crime, theft and looting. Further large scale demonstrations are expected over the next few days, especially in the Andean region.
- A curfew is in place, restricting movement between 20:00 and 05:00 in the Historic Centre in Quito and in other areas of strategic importance across Ecuador, including ports, airports, government buildings and energy infrastructure. Official documents will be required to access to ports and airports during this time frame.
- Ensure that you comply with the requirements of law enforcement and emergency measures.
- Monitor official sources via the ECU 911 emergency services be wary of unverified, unofficial information.
- Some international flights have been affected in recent days. Intermittent access to Quito International Airport has resulted in some cancellations and delays to domestic and international flights. You should check your flight status with your airline before travelling to the airport.
Piracy and Maritime Insecurity in the 21st Century

Piracy and Maritime Insecurity in the 21st Century
World Maritime Day: 26th September 2019
In 2010 Solace Global started out as Solace Global Maritime – providing armed security on vessels transiting the High Risk Piracy Area’s. Throughout the years the company has diversified its tasks ranging from anti-narcotics vessel searches in Colombia to bespoke Oil and Gas projects Globally. Solace Global Maritime supports a variety of tasks on a daily basis and with our in-house team of analysts we are able to report on events that could create change, threat or risk to our clients.
Here we look at piracy and maritime insecurities in the 21st Century. Maritime security is affected by a myriad of causes worldwide, including territorial disputes, conflict, environmental degradation and severe crime.
Despite years of national and international counter proliferation efforts, modern piracy remains a key issue affecting global maritime trade, as well as the oil & gas industry, and is present in most continents. Often concentrated around key transit and shipping routes and chokepoints, piracy and robbery at sea play a central role in fuelling instability and violence both on the water and on land.
Freedom and safety of navigation remain two of the core priorities for the international community, as evidenced by the effect of any threat of blockading one of the world’s straits or channels.This report aims at providing an overview of the main piracy hotspots, its root causes, impact and any efforts in combatting it.
MAIN TRIGGERS FOR MODERN PIRACY
POVERTY:Endemic poverty, unemployment and exploitation comparatively increase the profitability of piracy.
LAWLESSNESS: Lack of effective state control, law enforcement allows illegal activities and the expansion criminal networks both on land and sea.
CONFLICT: Prolonged warfare and internal conflict deteriorate governance, rule of law and state control, as well as day to day business functions. Maritime instability can also be advantageous for its tactical value.
RESOURCES: Critical resources such as oil & gas guarantee immediate profit in the black market. Also, the lack or depletion of key resources such as fishing stock, which are necessary for economic and societal sustainability, can also fuel illegality.
GEOGRAPHY: A complex and fragmented territorial composition, such as river deltas and vast archipelagos allow an easy escape for criminal elements and require high levels of manpower to be effectively policed by the authorities.
HORN OF AFRICA: THE FALL OF PIRACY AND RISE OF WAR
The Indian Ocean is considered the birthplace of modern piracy and armed robbery at sea. The proliferation of piracy led to the establishment of “High Risk Area” (HRA): a stretch of ocean off the coast of Somalia and Yemen that suffers from a level of piracy and it is considered critically dangerous for shipping and transit. The monitoring of the HRA is a concerted effort by maritime authorities and the global shipping and oil industries to minimise the threat of piracy: it requires vessels to adopt additional security measures (BMP5), including the use of armed guards, and to notify their passage to maritime authorities. Since 2008, the UN anti-piracy mandate has sanctioned international naval protection initiatives, as well as capacity building efforts on land.

The causes of Somali piracy are fundamentally rooted in the country’s crisis, its lack of rule of law and high level of poverty concentrated in the coastal communities. The collapse of the regime in 1991 led to a loss of control and effective policing of the country’s waters. This allowed activities like smuggling, illegal fishing and piracy to foster and further erode the rule of law in peripheral areas.
As the illegal fishing depleted the Somali fish stocks, local fishermen were increasingly attracted by the profitability of piracy. The influx of money generated by hijacking, kidnappings and robberies at sea greatly destabilised the economy and increased the cost of living, pushing even more fishing communities to embrace illegality. In this sense, while the international maritime efforts have succeeded in drastically reducing the incident rates, they only represent a short-term solution, ultimately ineffective without addressing the core issues on land.
The war in Yemen also represents a source of maritime instability in the region. This is, however, mostly unrelated to piracy and rather motivated by strategic considerations in the ongoing civil war. The Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, causes vessels to transit in the vicinity of Houthi-controlled coastal territories. While Houthi forces have refrained from deliberately threaten the shipping lines, they have conducted maritime attacks against vessels belonging to the Saudi-led coalition, the opposing faction in the civil war.
GULF OF GUINEA: THE WORLD’S MOST DANGEROUS WATERS
While the Somali coast has historically represented the world’s piracy hotspot, in recent years it has been overshadowed by the increasingly dangerous pirate activities in the Gulf of Guinea. The oil and gas-rich region of West Africa lacks the necessary refineries to process its production and the continuous exports of crude oil have represented a profitable market for robberies at anchorage points and illegality on the high seas.
Moreover, the basic economic inequalities within these societies have led to only a small elite benefiting from the oil & gas exploitation, creating a disenfranchised and exploited coastal population that turned to “Petro-Piracy”

The extreme fluctuations in market prices have, however, caused the West African pirates to transition towards the more profitable kidnap for ransom operations. The size of the Gulf, with its 6,000km long coastline, represent an area that is extremely hard to police, while the lack of an effective and coordinated effort by regional stakeholders has allowed piracy and armed robbery at sea to grow exponentially.
Moreover, the geography of areas such as the Niger Delta allows for a quick escape through its multitude of inlets, rivers and mangroves, where most of the illegal refineries and black-market centres are based.
While the condition of crisis and conflict in East Africa has allowed for integrated efforts by international navies and a subsequent reduction of piracy, the stronger governance and rule of law in countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea has led to the resistance of most foreign maritime protection initiatives, which are perceived as a violation of national sovereignty.
SOUTH EAST ASIA: PIRATES AND INSURGENTS
South East Asia has been the theatre of the oldest forms of piracy. Dating back to the 19th century, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, as well as the vast archipelagos, have represented perfect hunting grounds for pirates. Now, the 800km long Straits, hosts 1/3 of the maritime commerce worldwide and 1/4 of the global oil trade, consisting in mostly imports from China and Japan. While most of the attacks in recent years are related to occasional crime, such as looting and robberies, the more complex efforts in the past have caused multimillion losses in oil revenue, consisting in large-scale military-like operations. International naval efforts have been successful in reducing the number of incidents, but, due to the vastness of the South East Asian waters, the issue persists.
In 2016, an Asian contingent of the so-called Islamic State established a territorial enclave in the southern Filipino city of Mindanao and caused an entirely new type of piracy to spread in the Borneo area. The vicinity of the archipelagos allowed a network of active and sleeping cells to develop and unify under the leadership of Aby Sayyaf’s Isnilon Hapilon.
With the small island formations facilitating movement and populated by impoverished fishermen, the IS introduced the concept of kidnap for ransom. This method was commonly used in the Middle East caliphate to finance ISIL activities and, due to the large influx of foreign fighters and Asian combatants, the knowledge was applied to the regional context of South East Asia. The Islamic State would encourage local fishermen to kidnap vessels and tourists in exchange for a small section of the profit, causing incidents to skyrocket in the years between 2016 and 2017.
To effectively police the Borneo area, being removed from the main shipping routes going to the South China Sea, represented an unjustifiable cost to regional government until the criminality developed into a complex and lethal operation. It was, however, an effort conducted mainly on land and that resulted in the notorious Marawi siege against the Asian caliphate. While IS piracy has been effectively reduced, occasional incidents continue to take place.
CENTRAL AMERICA: NARCOTRAFFICKING AND CIVIL UNREST
Central America and the Caribbean also represent another of the world’s piracy hotspots, characterised by widespread illegality on land that spills over to the seas, as well as the Venezuelan crisis, which plays a key role in the deteriorating security environment.
The region’s piracy has revolved around a different type of criminality, connected to the illegal activities on land and, in particular, the northbound smuggling of drugs and weapons. The endemic issues of organised crime, poor state control and widespread poverty, as well as the proximity of the islands has allowed the establishment of a Caribbean route to Florida. While the American war on drugs has been successful in demolishing sea-based narcotrafficking routes, it also fuelled violence and crime, causing states like Honduras and Guatemala to reach levels of violence comparable to active warzones.

As seen in the African continent, the high levels of poverty and unemployment in the region play a direct role in encouraging more desperate measures to obtain profit, such as armed robbery.
More recently, however, the political instability, unrest and economic crisis raging throughout Venezuela has become the centre of maritime violence in the region. As the economy collapses, the criminality in the Caribbean seas allows Venezuelan citizens to smuggle goods, food and currency in the country, devastated by inflation levels that risk causing mass starvation amongst the poorest parts of the population.
Desperate coastal communities, suffering from a disastrous attempt by former president Hugo Chavez to nationalise the fishing industry, have increasingly targeted other fishermen, oil rigs and yachts anchored in proximity to Venezuelan waters.
The growing availability of firearms, the spreading lawlessness and the presence of critical resources such as oil & gas is likely to continue to elevate the Venezuelan threat level, unless serious international action is taken.
Oktoberfest Travel Advice 2019



UK Government Suspends Parliament

SITUATION SUMMARY
On 28 August 2019, the Queen of the United Kingdom approved Boris Johnson’s request for a suspension, or a prorogation, of UK parliament. The prorogue will be for 23 working days and is set to begin between 9-12 September until 14 October, four days before EU leaders are due to meet on 17 October for a final time before the Brexit date of 31 October.
Prorogation, unlike a recess which is voted on by parliament, is a decision that excludes the Houses. Parliament usually goes on recess for three weeks between September and October for the party conference season; however, there had been talk to cancel the break this year due to the urgency surrounding the Brexit deadline.
Johnson has stated that a Queen’s speech is due to take place following the suspension to outline his “very exciting agenda” in the latest update on Brexit.
However, many MPs, both pro- and anti-Brexit ones, have voiced their concern at the move which has been termed as a “constitutional outrage” and “damaging to democracy”.
SOLACE GLOBAL ANALYSIS The decision to shutdown parliament at this time is highly controversial as opponents argue that it will stop MPs being able to play their democratic part in the Brexit process, by constricting their ability to stop a so-called ‘no-deal’ Brexit; where Britain leaves the EU without a formal deal – with the majority of trade reverting to WTO rules.
Opposition MPs had announced they were due to attempt to block a no-deal Brexit using a parliamentary process. These MPs state that the prorogation is a deliberate move by Johnson to govern without parliament, an action considered dangerous within parliament. The suspension now leaves only a limited time that any such votes can take place, reducing options for those looking to block a no-deal Brexit.
Those in favour of Britain remaining a member of the EU, and even those in favour of leaving with or without a deal, have been critical. The European Parliament co-ordinator on Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt has stated “‘Taking back control’ has never looked so sinister”. Regardless, Boris Johnson has set out exactly what he promised to do when elected as leader of the Conservative Party; to deliver Brexit. And for now, that is what he intends to do.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?
- It is highly likely that the government could face a no confidence vote when parliament sits in the first week of September. It appears that this may be a deliberate tactic by Johnson to force parliament into a no confidence vote.
- Should this vote succeed, there would be two possible outcomes; no government is formed within 14 days and a general election is required. Or, the second option; a new government consisting of a coalition of parties is formed. Many leaders, a back-bench Conservative, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn or Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson, are all potential candidates if an agreement can be made.
- Parliament may decide that they do not have enough time to bring the government down and instead focus on legislating against a no-deal.
- Finally, there could be an attempt, potentially from the Scottish court or by a group of cross-party MPs, to block the suspension of parliament.
- There could also be a combination of the above, or something unseen – a black swan event – with British politics now entering unchartered waters.
WHAT TO DO:
- Anticipate protests in city centers and outside of government buildings. There have already been reports of protests in Westminster, London on 28 August.
- If in the vicinity of any demonstrations or protests it is best to avoid large crowds. Although they may seem peaceful, violence and arrests could erupt at any time.
- Anticipate travel disruptions to any areas populated with demonstrators and plan accordingly.
- As it stands, Britain will leave the European Union on 31 October; without a deal, businesses should continue to prepare for this eventuality.
- Disruptions to supply chains and at airports is likely, though mitigation measures are being implemented. Be prepared for delays at borders and whilst entering and exiting the United Kingdom.
- Businesses in the UK, both large and small, should be up-to-date with the UK government’s guidance on the EU Exit found on the government website: https://www.gov.uk/business-uk-leaving-eu. Businesses outside of the UK should consult their own government websites for similar information.
JAPAN 日本 2019 RUGBY WORLD CUP

The 2019 Rugby World Cup is set to kick off on 20 September in Japan. This is the first time the tournament will be held in Asia, and outside of the traditional heartland of the Rugby Union. For many people, this will be their first experience of Japan and while one of the safest countries in the world, its culture is vastly different. Travellers are likely to find the cultural differences and the language barrier the greatest challenge whilst visiting the country. Despite this, there are some very real risks in Japan, these almost exclusively come in the form of environmental threats. The island nation faces numerous earthquakes and typhoons; however, the country’s infrastructure is well developed and prepared for such events – making only catastrophic, and rare, events a risk to those in the country.

(Click the map to learn more about the tournament venues)
ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
Japan is a safe country, the main risk to travellers visiting stems from environmental factors. The World Cup is set to begin at the tail end of the typhoon high season. The country is also one of the most seismically active in the world. Japan also possesses a number of active volcanoes; however, the risk of these impacting travellers remains low.
TYPHOONS
On average, Japan sees eleven sizable typhoons per year, with the islands of Okinawa and Kyushu normally being the most affected. Typhoons are tropical cyclones typical of the Pacific Oceans and they are characterised by strong winds, large waves and heavy rains. The landfall of a typhoon can cause infrastructural damage, disrupt travel – particularly flights and ferries – and sometimes evacuation orders by the local emergency preparedness authorities. While there are no matches, scheduled to take place in Okinawa, three of the twelve designated world cup stadiums are in Kyushu. Keeping an eye on weather forecasts is always advisable during the typhoon season to avoid being caught unprepared.
EARTHQUAKES
Earthquakes are a common occurrence across the country. Minor quakes strike the country almost daily and result in no damage and are often barely noticeable. Major quakes also occur with a frequency unfamiliar to most of the western world and can result in damage. However, Japan is at the forefront in the field of disaster preparedness and management, due to the country being so prone to natural disasters. Most buildings and infrastructure are built in accordance to stringent regulations and utilise the latest technologies in order to prevent damage and collapse during earthquakes. Most buildings are also equipped with emergency kits that include dry food, water and medical supplies.
Japan’s advanced knowledge of earthquakes and innovative solutions in the field of emergency response were developed in the aftermath of two great disasters, the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995, the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011, coupled with smaller and recurring episodes. Moreover, all Japanese citizens are trained in evacuation procedures and most of them have first aid knowledge, which facilitates the preventative and reactive operations. The Japanese government has a system of early warning alerting, which would push out a notification on all devices and televisions in case of an earthquake, tsunami or ballistic missile test.
The largest recent quake was the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake. This megathrust earthquake’s epicentre was located off the coast of the Oshika Peninsula. The quake was the strongest to ever strike Japan, with a recorded magnitude of 9.1 and 7 on the Japanese Shindo (seismic intensity) scale. It was followed by a tsunami with waves of 10 meters (33 ft) in height – though waves of 40 meters were recorded in some areas. Up to 18,430 people are reported to have been killed or are still missing.
Japanese coastal areas are built to defend against tsunamis, all of which have been bolstered since 2011. As such, the majority of small tsunamis do not pose a threat to the major urban centres. However, as was the case in 2011, waves of 10 meters+ have the potential of overtopping the defences.
The island also has a number of volcanoes; however, these pose only a minor threat with the majority being dormant for the past decades.
OTHER RISKS
Japan is considered a very safe country, with crime rates among the lowest in the world. In addition to this, the Japanese law enforcement agencies have a high success rate in solving crimes that are carried out. Violent crime is also rare, although there is a significant presence of organised crime, often operating in and around entertainment establishments. However, members of criminal networks are unlikely to target foreign nationals unless provoked. Travellers should expect increased security measures and personnel during the duration of the world cup, further decreasing the risk of being a victim of violent crimes. Pickpocketing and petty theft remain the highest risk to anyone visiting Japan, particularly in large crowds and in the vicinity of tourist landmarks.
The risk of terrorism is low in Japan and, while there have been several highly publicised mass stabbings, these remain very rare.
The police in Japan have wide-ranging powers and they are lawfully allowed to hold potential criminals for up to 23 days, even for minor offences. Indeed, should you be charged with a crime, you are likely to be held, without bail, until your court date.
CULTURE
While visiting any country, it is important to be aware of cultural and religious norms and habits. The majority of people in Japan are friendly and hospitable, but they will tend to remain reserved. As such, loud and boisterous behaviour, especially in public, is uncommon. This is important to remember when the emotions of the world cup are running high in the 78th minute of a match.
Dressing conservatively is important to avoid offending locals, particularly if visiting areas considered sacred or of high historical importance.
Manners are also very important among the Japanese population, making it important to be aware of the basic rules.
Japanese people often greet each other by bowing, which is also a way to show respect. It is also customary to exchange business cards, which should be received with both hands and not immediately stored away, as that is perceived as disrespectful. During formal business dinners, keeping the cards on the table is also common.
Public displays of affection are not common in the country and it is better that visitors avoid them. Keeping phones on silent whilst on public transport is also the norm. Avoid taking calls or having loud conversations on any form of public transport.
Smoking in public and littering are frowned upon. Indeed, littering is seen as a sign of disrespect and could get you in trouble. It can also be frustrating when out and about as dustbins are few and far between; the majority of Japanese people take their garbage home with them rather than dispose of it when out. Smoking is mostly reserved for bars and pubs rather than the streets, where it is only allowed to smoke in designated areas.
LGBT RIGHTS
LGBT rights in Japan are relatively progressive by Asian standards. This is partly due to Japan’s culture and major religions not having a history of hostility towards homosexuality. The majority of Japanese people support the legalisation of same-sex marriage and the younger generation are widely supportive of LGBT rights. However, Japanese society remains inherently conservative, where public displays of affections or sexual preference are considered mostly inappropriate.

LOCAL TRAVEL
Travelling around Japan is simple once you have got used to the country’s public transportation network. For foreign nationals visiting the country, you can pre-buy Japan Rail Passes, which gives unlimited travel on all of Japan’s long-distance rail services. Be aware that due to the world cup, many trains, are likely to be fully booked, with seats pre-booked. Buying a rail pass before you arrive is highly recommended if you are planning to use the train a lot.
The country has one of the best transport infrastructures in the world with high-speed trains, extensive motorways and numerous large airports. However, it is important for those visiting for the first time, or even seasoned travellers, to be aware that the public transport system can be confusing. It is recommended that travellers schedule additional time for travel, as buying tickets and finding the right platform is likely to be challenging, particularly in large transportation hubs such as Tokyo and Osaka station. If in trouble, it is always a good idea to ask the staff, which will be able to guide you to the right destination. Trains are used by a large number of people for daily commutes, thus consider avoiding morning and evening rush hours if unsure about how to navigate the stations. Be aware that the fast trains – the shinkansen or also known as the bullet train – need a separate ticket and depart from specific platforms.
In major urban areas, navigating can take some getting used to but while signposts are in Japanese, the vast majority are also written in English. As such, those travelling for the World Cup, both for leisure and for business, should have no trouble getting from their accommodation to the venues. If uncomfortable using local trains or buses, taxis remain a safe and affordable option – just remember not to touch the car doors, as they are fully automated. Travel between cities, be it via plane, train or automobile is unlikely to present any significant risk. It is just vital you allow yourself plenty of time to navigate stations, double-check platform numbers and, where possible, simply ask for directions.
Foreigners can drive in Japan with an International Driving Permit; though, given the high quality of public transport, it is advised that you use other forms of transport.
HEALTH
Japan’s healthcare system is among the best in the world. Even hospitals in rural areas and smaller clinics are well equipped and staffed by highly trained medical professionals. However, travel insurance is a must, the cost of treatment in Japan is high and payment will be expected in full and upfront. As such, there can be delays in treatment while insurance is verified. Additionally, many doctors do not speak English, making communicating difficult.
Despite being held in autumn, the host cities will still be warm, with the exception of the northern cities of Sapporo and Kamaishi, which will be much cooler thanks to their more northern locations. Keeping hydrated and protecting yourself from the sun is important whilst travelling.
PRESCRIPTION DRUGS
The laws surrounding prescription medication in Japan is much stricter and different to those in Europe or Australasia. This includes the use of items such as Vicks Inhalers, allergy medications and medication containing Pseudoephedrine. Indeed, some over-the-counter painkillers like those containing Codeine are also illegal and foreign nationals have been detained and deported for offences.
As such, if you are travelling to Japan with prescription medication, be aware of the possible restrictions on any said medication and even if what you are taking is legal, ensure that you have your prescription from your doctor with you at all times.
There is also a zero-tolerance policy towards all drugs in Japan. The penalties for possession, the use or the trafficking of illegal narcotics can result in long jail sentences and very heavy fines.

United States of America – Two Mass Shootings in 24 hours






Hajj and Relating Travel Risks

Our latest Solace AlertPlus looks at recent incidents or world events that may impact on travellers.
Here we look at the travel risks associated with the annual Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia.





Deadly Monsoon hits South-East Asia

Our latest Solace AlertPlus looks at recent incidents or world events that may impact on travellers.
Here we look at the devastating Monsoon Season that has hit several South East Asian countries.




Global Conference for Media Freedom 2019

Over the 10-11 July the Global Conference for Media Freedom 2019 is due to take place in London. The first of its kind, the conference between the UK and Canadian governments comes as part of an international campaign to promote media freedom though focusing on the challenges faced by journalists and other media workers and how to provide solutions.
Journalists often take huge risks to bring us the news and various documentaries from around the world which many of us take for granted. 2018 was reported by UNESCO to be the deadliest year on record for journalists with 99 killed, 348 imprisoned and 60 held hostage. Figures on average have risen around 15% since 2017 and seen reporters and journalists as the main targets for such attacks. Not only do journalists visit danger zones where extremism and warzones still remain but they also experience pressures from corruption, crime and the breakdown of law and order. The conference aims to work to defend media freedom and improve the safety of journalists and reporters across the world.

Here at Solace we are proud to have supported a number of media tasks around the world, including Afghanistan, Colombia, Mexico and Syria. Solace understand the difficulties that film crews can face and have provided bespoke low-profile services to journalists, film crews and media teams. Our check- in and intelligence monitoring gives the teams a light touch support whilst filming in hostile circumstances such as with drug cartels, mafia members and local law enforcement and military.
The recent media case studies demonstrate how light touch services have provided security and ensured safety for the teams on the ground:
Low Profile Security Solutions for Drugs Documentary Filmed across Central and South America, Solace have supported several television documentary series, following the illegal narcotics trade and those within the drugs cartels. In some cases filming was dependent on in-country ‘fixers’. Solace helped to journey manage and provide inSIGHT monitoring services, including pro-actively communicating real-time vicinity incidents and tracking of the team’s movements.

One of these documentaries saw Solace assist SAS Who Dares Wins star Jason Fox in ‘Inside the Real Narco’s. His first documentary following the drugs trade: Low profile & light touch support for ‘Inside The Real Narcos’: https://www.solaceglobal.com//news/2018/07/24/low-profile-light-touch-support-real-narcos/
Following on from his documentary ‘The Real Narcos’, Solace were thrilled to be yet again be involved in assisting in Jason Fox’s next journey as he travelled back to Afghanistan. Enhanced Monitoring and Light Touch Support for ‘The Final Mission: Foxy’s War’: https://www.solaceglobal.com//news/2019/05/30/enhanced-monitoring-light-touch-support-final-mission-foxys-war/
As a trusted supplier to major media broadcasters, Solace Global understands the extensive risk management needs of media organisations providing enhanced intelligence, check-in monitoring, overarching support through Solace Secure plus 24/7 Response Assistance and Crisis Management.
Further information and to contact Solace Global: www.solaceglobal.com
Solace achieve Cyber Essentials PLUS certification

Solace Global are proud to announce they have achieved the Cyber Essentials PLUS certification.
Cyber Essentials is a UK government information assurance scheme operated by the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) that encourages organisations to adopt good practice in information security. Cyber Essentials was developed in collaboration with industry partners such as the Information Security Forum, the Information Assurance for Small and Medium Enterprises Consortium, and the British Standards Institution.
The UK government launched this scheme on 5 June 2014. By October 2014, the Cyber Essentials certification was required for any suppliers to the UK government who handled any sensitive and personal information. Any companies bidding for government contracts need this certification, and insurance companies have typically lowered premiums for any companies who are certified. The certifications are described as:
The purpose of Cyber Essentials is to improve your organisation’s cyber readiness and ensure that the company’s security is ready to defend against today’s cyber attacks.
The Cyber Essentials certification process requires that there are five technical controls in your company, and in order to pass the certification your organisation must meet all of the requirements:
- Firewalls
- Secure Configuration
- User Access Control
- Malware Protection
- Patch Management
The Cyber Essentials PLUS differs from Cyber Essentials in that an independent assessment of a company’s security controls is required. The assessment verifies that the company does indeed have the five technical security controls in place. The PLUS certification is a much more highly regarded and shows a real improvement in existing cyber security controls.

Jon Kersey, Head of Logistics at Solace Global, comments:
“Cyber attacks hit the headlines when they affect large corporations or institutions like the NHS, however the criminals are also targeting smaller businesses on an industrial scale, exploiting any weaknesses in IT security, infrastructure and software. As a risk management company Solace Global understand the importance of cyber security and achieving the Cyber Essentials PLUS certification demonstrates to our clients we have the necessary technical controls in place to keep their data safe.”
Solace proudly supports Craig Haslam’s Cycling Challenge

On 13th June 2019, former Royal Marine Craig Haslam, will undertake an 4219mile cycle around mainland UK using A and B roads. Craig is aiming to complete the cycle in 17 days without crossing any road twice.

Craig says of his cycling challenge: “There are many personal reasons why I have chosen to challenge myself with this cycle, however the main reason is that I wish to raise funds for two amazing charities that have played a huge part in my life.”
The first charity Craig is riding in support of is the Defence Medical Rehabilitation Centre Benevolent Fund, which helps rehabilitate members of the Armed Forces. DMRC used to be based at Headley Court where Craig was a patient for a duration. Craig comments: “I was knocked off my bicycle by a car in Feb 2015. As a serving member of the armed forces, DMRC helped me recover from my life changing injuries.”
The second charity is Surfers Against Sewage who help encourage plastic free communities and marine conservation. Craig explains: “As someone who has spent a lifetime outdoors, particularly in the water, I am all too aware of the state of our environment. My family and I have supported this charity for over 15 years. As the impact of plastic becomes more aware, it is so important to do what we can to protect our seas. As a no nonsense, plain speaking grassroots Marine Conservation charity, SAS is perfectly positioned to do this.”
To donate to Craig’s ‘AB Sea UK Cycling Challenge’ visit: https://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/fundraiser-display/showROFundraiserPage?userUrl=ABSea2019&pageUrl=1
With many of Solace team coming from backgrounds in the Armed Forces, we are proud to be sponsoring Craig in his journey. Follow Craig’s progress around the UK via ‘Solace Tracking’ app or dedicated cycling webpage: https://cycling.solacesecure.co.uk/. Download ‘Solace Tracking’ for free on IOS from the App Store.
