In a televised announcement on 21 February 2022, President Putin declared that Russia would officially recognize the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. Following requests for military assistance from the leaders of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, President Putin has reportedly committed to deploying Russian Armed Forces to the rebel held regions, to conduct unspecified peacekeeping operations. UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirmed that military
equipment is already beginning to deploy into the region, although tactical force dispositions are not currently known. Although this scenario had been somewhat anticipated, given the rapid deterioration of the security situation over the preceding 48 hours and several Russian claims of false-flag operations, the announcement has been met with ubiquitous condemnation by Western leaders. Extensive, pre-planned and synchronised sanction regimes were announced by Western nations following the release of the Russian statement, details of which will be made public in the immediate term but will almost certainly target key political figures and strategic Russian financial interests. The German Government has already suspended the approval process for the Nordstream2 gas pipeline until further notice. Whether Russia is intending to use sanctions they deem overly excessive or disproportionate as a tripwire for justifying additional incursions beyond the Donbas remains to be seen. Oil prices also surged in the immediate aftermath of the announcements of sanctions, as futures of Brent crude, the international benchmark, reached a seven-year high of almost $98 (£72) amid concerns over supply chain disruption and the impact of sanctions on Russian exports. Discussions are ongoing in the West as to the severity of sanctions. Poland and the Baltic states are arguing for harsh sanctions to be applied immediately, stating that Putin will “taunt” the West with “one thousand cuts”. France and Germany are urging restraint in the short term, to ensure additional leverage can be applied in the event of further escalation by Russia.

The extent to which Russia will recognise the entirety of the territory in the Donbas is unclear. At present, rebel-held areas do not comprise the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts of Ukraine. Therefore, any decision by Russia to unilaterally declare the whole regions as independent states will highly likely lead to Russian Armed Forces deploying west of the currently recognised Line of Contact. This will almost certainly increase the likelihood of clashes between conventional forces of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries and risk a rapid, significant deterioration of the security situation and critical escalation of the conflict. The force composition of troops deployed to the Donbas will almost certainly provide an indication as to the operational intent of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine: a moderate forward deployment
of Russian National Guard personnel or motorised rifle units will most likely indicate that Russia intends to hold ground and consolidate east of the Line of Contact, whilst a large-scale deployment of armoured, airborne and/or artillery formations should be considered a crucial indicator for possible onward incursion into Ukraine. Any Ukrainian Armed Forces operations in the vicinity of the Line of Contact (including reconnaissance, air defense and counter-battery strikes) will almost certainly be perceived as offensive in nature by any deployed Russian Armed Forces, and as such there remains considerable potential for the conflict to escalate rapidly and with minimal warning. It remains realistically possible that Russia intends to conduct further offensive operations in Eastern Ukraine, with seizing and holding localities populated by ethnic Russians or Russian-speakers likely to be key operational objectives. As a result, Solace Global advises that business operations in Kharkiv, Berdyansk and other cities in the vicinity of the Donbas Region should consider evacuating to safer areas in the west of Ukraine.

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In a statement on national television on 24 January, the Burkina Faso Armed Forces announced that they had dissolved the country’s government, suspended the constitution, and closed national borders Alongside this, a nationwide curfew is currently in force from 21 00 to 05 00.

The coup followed a series of revolts at army bases across the country. Troops called for the dismissal of the army chiefs of staff, as well as better funding and equipment to combat Islamic extremist groups. It also comes one week after 11 soldiers were arrested by the government for being involved in a coup plot.

Beginning on 22 January, protesters gathered in the Burkina Faso capital Ouagadougou in support of the armed forces and called for President Kaboré’s resignation. On 23 January gunfire was heard in the capital, this gunfire is believed to have been related to an assassination attempt on the President It was also reported that the nation’s internet was seeing “significant disruptions”. These disruptions persisted until late on 24 January.

The morning of 24 January, saw an announcement that mutinying soldiers had “ the President. Later in the day, military convoys were seen outside the Presidential Palace and the offices of the country’s state broadcaster. It was not until later in the evening on 24 January local time however that the coup was officially confirmed through a statement on national television.

The military group behind the coup, the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration (MPSR) are a previously unheard of grouping. The group which “includes all sections of the army” stated they had decided to “end President Kaboré’s post today”.

As news of the coup filtered out, The African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) condemned events Additionally the United States and the European Union have called on the military to release President Kaboré.

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Elected to power in 2015 President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré was the first non transitional leader to assume office in 49 years without ties to the Burkina Faso Armed Forces. His presidency has been marred by an ongoing jihadist insurgency that originated in Mali, and has engulfed
much of the Sahel in recent years.

The often poorly trained and equipped militaries in the region, including the Burkinabe military, are unable to retaliate effectively against the insurgent groups. These include the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIB). These groups have
been able to exploit the region’s weak states and porous borders. As such they regularly cross the Burkinabe borders with Mali and Niger with ease.

The most significant attack in recent months occurred in November 2021 near a gold mine in Inata. This attack left 49 gendarmes and four civilians dead. There was public outcry when it was revealed that troops lacked ammunition, equipment, and had gone for several weeks without receiving food rations.

Despite changes over recent years to the Burkinabe security forces, they have remained unable to cope with the spreading insurgency. Protests have frequently taken place, criticizing Kaboré for his response to the insurgency. These have often resulted in violent crackdowns. The most
recent protest was due to occur on 20 January, however it was banned.

To try and contain the regional insurgency, France had deployed some 5,100 across the Sahel to combat Islamist groups. This was known as Operation Barkhane. However, President Macron announced in June 2021 that a withdrawal of French troops from the region would begin. This is currently scheduled to be complete by the first quarter of 2022.

The withdrawal of French troops is likely to serve to compound the security problems of the Sahel region and of Burkina Faso. These security problems, and the uncertainty generated by the French withdrawal, are believed to be behind the regions high number of coups in recent months, four, in seventeen months. Two in Mali, one in Guinea, one in Chad, and now, Burkina Faso.

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SITUATION SUMMARY

Tonga’s Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano, located roughly 65 kilometres north of the capital Nuku’aolofa erupted violently at 04 10 GMT on 15 January. Satellite imagery of the eruption indicated a 5 kilometre wide plume of ash and gas rising 20 kilometres into the air The eruption also triggered tsunami warnings and advisories across the South Pacific and North Pacific regions, including as far as Alaska in North America, central Chile in South America and eastern Japan in Asia. Indeed, the powerful eruption generated tsunami waves approximately one metre in height, inundating entire towns in Tonga and American Samoa, including the capitals of Nuku’alofa and Pago Pago. Large waves and tidal surges also impacted other South Pacific islands, such as Fiji and Vanuatu, as well as coastal areas in Japan, the United States, Chile and Peru, amongst other locations. The extent of the damage caused remains unclear with governments across the region currently working to determine the impacts of the tsunamis, as well as what urgent assistance is needed.

The eruption is understood to have also damaged submarine cables that connect the South Pacific islands, resulting in widespread power outages and communications blackouts, including disruptions to phone lines and internet services. These communications challenges are making the full extent of the damage difficult to calculate Videos posted on social media and initial local reports suggest Tonga has sustained significant damage, especially on the outer lying islands. Satellite imagery appeared to show Tonga’s uninhabited Nuku and Tau islands completely eroded. At the time of writing, Australian surveillance aircraft are deployed to the area in an effort to provide images allowing regional governments to gauge what support is needed.

Additionally, the eruption is understood to have blanketed Tonga in volcanic ash, raising concerns of contaminated food and water supplies, as well as poor air quality. The presence of volcanic ash has also been reported on some Fijian islands and in Samoa, hindering initial efforts to conduct aerial surveillance of the worst affected areas and deliver aid.

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The Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano is located approximately 65 kilometres north of the Tongan capital of Nuku’alofa. This volcanic island is part of the Tonga Kermadec Islands volcanic arc; a formation of up to 30 underwater volcanoes that stretch across the South Pacific seafloor from Tonga to New Zealand. Previous eruptions between December 2014 and January 2015 triggered widespread air travel disruption in the region.

Strong volcanic activity resumed at the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano in December 2021. Intermittent eruptions of white, gaseous clouds were documented, eventually culminating in a major eruption on 14 January 2022. This eruption has been described as one of the world’s largest in the last decade.

The ongoing communications challenges are making the full extent of the damage and the number of casualties difficult to determine. However, initial impact assessments provided by surveillance flights suggest that the tsunami has resulted in significant damage to buildings and infrastructure in Tonga.

Fortunately, there have been no early indications of mass casualties. However, the emerging reports of contaminated water and food supplies mean that there is a strong requirement for urgent external aid to the affected communities in the immediate term, including emergency shelter, drinking water, food and medical supplies. Australia and New Zealand are already reported to be coordinating with the United States and France, as well as other countries, on the humanitarian response.

Tonga itself is listed as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries on the World Disaster Risk Index. In 2021 the nation ranked third out of 181 countries due to its significant exposure to natural hazards, high susceptibility and lack of coping capacities.

Island nations in the South Pacific are exposed to a multitude of natural hazards, including regular seismic and volcanic activity capable of triggering tsunamis with little to no warning. Cyclonic weather systems are also frequent, which combined with the effects of climate change, increase the vulnerability of communities across the South Pacific.

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At least six people were killed, and 36 others suffered injuries in a twin suicide bomb attack in central Kampala on 16 November.

According to an official Ugandan Police Force statement published on 16 November, the first attack occurred at a security checkpoint near to the Central Police Station at around 10:03 local time. The second attack took place roughly three minutes later outside the Raja Chambers building on Parliamentary Avenue, roughly 100 metres from Uganda’s parliament building.

CCTV footage of the initial attack reportedly showed a single suicide bomber detonating an Improvised Explosive Device (IED),  the second blast involved two perpetrators on motorcycles, allegedly disguised as boda boda riders (motorcycle taxis). Both the explosions resulted in casualties, as well as damage to nearby buildings and vehicles within the blast radius.

A fourth assailant was pursued by counter-terrorism police, who managed to detain the suspected suicide bomber and recover an unexploded IED in his possession, a second device was also recovered from his home in Nansana, west of central Kampala.

The explosions triggered a large-scale police and emergency service response, and prompted the evacuation of nearby buildings, including parliament, as a safety precaution.

The Ugandan police described the explosions as a coordinated attack by extremists and were quick to blame “Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) linked radicalised groups”.

The Islamic State (IS) subsequently claimed responsibility for the blasts via the group’s Amaq News Agency on an affiliated Telegram account.

In the wake of the attack, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni urged the public to “maintain vigilance” and said that authorities were working with neighbouring countries “to deal with those operating from outside [Uganda].”

The leaders of the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) condemned the twin bombings.

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The twin bombings in Kampala were the latest attacks in a series of similar incidents in recent weeks, all of which have either been claimed by IS or blamed on ADF militants.

The recent spate of bombings in Uganda began on 8 October, when one police officer was killed in a blast at a police station in a suburb of Kampala. IS claimed responsibility for the attack, marking the first time the group had carried out an attack in Uganda.

Later on 23 October, one person was killed when an IED, left in a shopping bag, detonated in a restaurant on the outskirts of Kampala. Days later, several people were injured in a suicide bomb attack targeting a bus travelling from Kampala towards Western Uganda.

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the restaurant blast, with Ugandan police suggesting the bus bomber was on a list of wanted ADF members.

The ADF is an Islamist militant group that originated in Uganda and mostly operates out of neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo. The group swore allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) in 2019 and has since been known as Islamic State Central African Province (ISCAP), or ISIS-DRC, among other names.

The ADF has long been opposed to the rule of longtime President Museveni, a key US security ally that has committed troops to combat Al-Shabaab in Somalia, among other regional counter terrorism efforts.

Tuesday’s attack in Kampala represents an increasingly sophisticated threat and was likely an attempt by ADF/ISCAP to demonstrate its strength and capability to carry out coordinated, mass casualty  attacks in the Ugandan capital.

Given the group’s Ugandan roots and local grievances, as well as the backing and training of the transnational IS group, further attacks in Kampala and other areas are highly likely in the near-term.

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On 15 November, the UK’s Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) raised the nationwide terrorism threat level from ‘substantial’ to ‘severe’. A terrorist attack is now regarded as highly likely under the UK’s index of threat levels, of which the severe categorisation is the second-highest level of warning.​

Home Secretary Priti Patel confirmed that the JTAC’s decision to raise the UK’s terrorism threat level had been undertaken in response to two terrorist incidents that had taken place within a span of 31 days between 15 October and 15 November. ​

The most recent of these two incidents occurred on 14 November after 32-year old Emad al-Swealmen detonated an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in a taxi outside the Liverpool Women’s Hospital in Liverpool, Merseyside. The subsequent explosion resulted in the death of Emad al-Swealmen and injured a taxi driver who had managed to successfully flee the vehicle just following the detonation.

Investigations following the incident have led to the arrests of four individuals in Liverpool’s Kensington area under the Terrorism Act 2000. Head of Counter Terrorism Policing North West, Russ Jackson, confirmed that all four individuals were suspected to have been associates of Emad al-Swealmen.​

On 15 October, Conservative MP Sir David Amess was stabbed and killed by 25-year old Ali Harbi Ali at a constituency surgery in Leigh-on-Sea, Essex. Police established a connection to radical Islamic extremism as a potential motivation for Ali Harbi Ali’s attack, although no definitive judgement has yet been reached by the UK justice system at the time of writing.​

The advice issued by UK authorities in the wake of these incidents has focused on vigilance. Prime Minister Boris Johnson urging all members of the public to maintain a high level of situational awareness as a result of the increase in the UK terror threat level.​

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Prior to the JTAC’s recent announcement, the last time a ‘severe’ terror threat level was implemented in the UK was between 3 November 2020 and 4 February 2021. The usage of the ‘severe’ category indicates that there is no existing government intelligence of any immediate risk to life, but that further attacks remain highly likely due to the frequency of attacks in recent weeks.​

Terrorism in the UK has historically been undertaken by a variety of actors, including far-right extremists, dissident Irish nationalist groups and radical Islamists, among others. Of these, the most prominent driver of the current ‘severe’ terror threat level is the likelihood of further attacks related to Islamist extremism.​

The usage of bladed weapons, homemade IEDs and vehicular-ramming attacks represent a set of common themes across UK terror attacks in the past five years.  The October 2021 attack on Sir David Amess, the November 2021 Liverpool bombing and the August 2018 Westminster attack illustrate these respective threats.

Lone-wolf attacks especially have become more frequent, though it is not uncommon for terrorist attacks in the UK to later be claimed by a terrorist group, or for an attacker to pledge allegiance to an extremist cause in some way prior to an incident. ​

Public venues and high profile political figures such as MPs have regularly been targeted by both successful and would-be assailants. Train stations, music concerts, main city roads and the UK Houses of Parliament are all examples of locations deliberately targeted by terrorists in recent years.​

Though it is impossible for the authorities to prevent every attack of this nature, the British Security Services, MI5, stated that 31 late stage terror plots had been prevented in the past four years. Additionally, as highlighted by the Liverpool attack, police in Britain and other emergency services are able to respond rapidly to attacks and limit their potential to evolve into major mass casualty events.​

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​

Unidentified military and paramilitary groups launched a coup in Khartoum, Sudan early on Monday, 25 October. The Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, civilian members of the Transitional Sovereign Council and other government ministers have all been detained. A nationwide state of emergency has been declared and the sovereign council has been dissolved. Soldiers have also been deployed across Khartoum and are restricting the movement of civilians, as well as blocking the main roads and bridges leading to the capital.​

According to Sudan’s Ministry of Culture and Media, military forces besieged the home of Hamdok, placing him under house arrest. However, after he refused to endorse the coup, he was moved to another location, with his whereabouts currently unknown.​

Other civilian officials taken into custody include, the ministers for industry and information, the governor of Khartoum State, the prime minister’s media adviser and the spokesman for the Transitional Sovereign Council.

Telecommunications and internet access has been restricted across the country, with global internet monitor NetBlocks reporting a 24 percent drop in connectivity early hours of Monday morning. Elsewhere in Omdurman, soldiers stormed the headquarters of Sudan’s state broadcaster and detained a number of employees. Flights have also been suspended at Khartoum International Airport.​

Large-scale, anti-coup protests have erupted across the capital and in other locations nationwide, resulting in clashes with military personnel. Local reports suggest soldiers have deployed tear gas and fired live ammunition in Khartoum to disperse the protests, resulting in at least two fatalities and dozens of casualties.​

The coup has been denounced by the international community, including the United Nations, the Arab League, the European Union and the United States. All have expressed concern over Sudan’s political transition to civilian rule. 

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Governance in Sudan had been shared between military and civilian groups since the overthrow of long-term President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The former president was ousted by the military following months of sustained unrest. Civilians and military leaders are now supposed to be running the country together on a joint committee known as the Sovereign Council.​

However, there has long been public tension between the military and civilian sides of the council. Just last month several officers were arrested for attempting a coup. The government, at the time, attributed the putsch attempt to Bashir loyalists who were members of the armoured corps.​

Following the coup attempt, Sections of the Sudanese public rallied in support for the military. Many at these protest called for the military to overthrow the transitional government, who many accuse of being responsible for the country’s poor economic performance. Indeed, the prime minister’s moves to cut fuel subsidies were exceptionally unpopular.

Despite the number of pro-military rallies, it is unclear how widely supported the military are. Members of the ousted government have called on people to “peacefully” protest against the coup. Thus far, demonstrations have taken place throughout Monday night, with photos showing mass rallies and burning road blockades. Clashes and at least seven fatalities have also been reported. ​

Going forward the situation remains tense. The country is reliant on international support and financial aid. Both may be withdrawn as a result of the coup. This will mean that the military will need to work quickly to convince international onlookers, and the Sudanese people, that they are supportive of the democratic process. Should this support be withdrawn, the military are unlikely to be able to sustain the post-pandemic economic recovery.​

Further protests are also expected with the military likely to respond in a violent fashion. As a result, the situation on the ground will be changeable in the coming days, presenting a severe risk to those in country.

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On 13 October, an individual armed with a bow and arrows attacked and killed five people in the Norwegian town of Kongsberg. Officials have stated that he may have also had ‘other weapons’ but the nature of these has not been disclosed. Two other people were injured during the attack, including an off duty police officer.

Police confirmed that the attack began at a Co op Extra Supermarket in western Kongsberg and later spread to several other locations across the town. Kari Anne, the Mayor of Kongsberg, later clarified that the attack had occurred in the Vestiden area of the town.

Following the attack, a town wide shelter in place order was implemented amidst a major police operation, with multiple properties being evacuated. The police detained a male suspect at18 47 local time, approximately 34 minutes after the first reports of the attack emerged. In the hours after his arrest, a police spokesperson confirmed the suspect was known to the police and had been involved in “several different issues”.

At the time of writing the motive for the attack is unconfirmed however, Norwegian police have announced that the incident appears to be motivated by terrorism. They have previously stated that they had been in contact with the suspect in the past over fears of radicalisation after he was reported to have converted to Islam.

Norway’s terrorism threat level has not raised in the immediate aftermath of the attack Despite this, public services, hospitals and the Justice Ministry have been put on alert. Additionally, Norway’s police directorate has ordered all officers nationwide to carry firearms as an extra precaution.

All political parties in the country have reacted in solidarity to the incident Outgoing Prime Minister Erna Solberg of the Conservative  Party described the attack as “ a sentiment echoed by Prime Minister designate Jonas Støre of the Labour Party, who condemned the attack as a “cruel and brutal act”.

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With a death toll of five, the Kongsberg attack represents the deadliest mass casualty event in Norway since the July 2011 attack perpetrated by far right terrorist Anders Behring Breivik. The most recent fatal terrorist incident before last night’s incident was a far right attack on the Al Noor Islamic Center mosque in Bærum in August 2019.

At the time of writing, police have announced that the attack appears to be an act of terror Given the police had previously been in contact with the suspect over fears of radicalisation, the announcement of a terrorist motive is not a surprise

Any investigation into the Kongsberg attack is likely to focus on these fears of radicalisation It is also likely that questions will be raised regarding police intelligence prior to the attack Additionally, the perpetrator’s use of a bow and arrow as his weapon is unconventional and likely to attract attention from the Norwegian and international media.

In Norway, the main terrorist threat comes from far right actors, such as in the 2011 Breivik attack and the Bærum mosque shooting, and from Islamic extremism However, there has only been two successful attacks in the past decade before last night. Additionally, Norwegian police have been successful in foiling many past incidents, including a planned attack using poison in February 2021.

As a result of this rarity in attacks, and despite last night’s incident, the terrorism threat in Norway remains low However, the seemingly indiscriminate nature of the attack reinforces the need to maintain situational awareness, even when travelling or working in a low risk destination Past incidents have occurred in the country, and in the wider region, including the 2017 Stockholm truck attack and the 2015 Copenhagen shootings

Attacks of a terrorist nature can occur with little to no warning and being aware of one’s surroundings is often the best way to avoid danger.

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In London next week, Extinction Rebellion are set to commence what could be their longest series of unrest thus far.  The group are planning to occupy sites throughout the British capital from 10:00 local time on 23 August. The specific locations of the unrest remain vague at this time however, the demonstrations will start at Trafalgar Square and will target the City of London.

The demonstrations are set to be part of what the group are terming, The Impossible Rebellion. The main goal of the unrest is for the government to “stop all new fossil fuel investment immediately”.  The protests are planned for two weeks, with the group urging people to take time off work to take part.

By targeting the city, the group are aiming to disrupt the political economy, which they believe is the root cause of the crisis They hope this will put pressure on the biggest financial institutions that are fueling this emergency and that this pressure will cause a “ripple effect” leading to government reform.

The planned action comes following the release of the UN IPCC report on climate change. In the more than 4 000 page report, the UN has termed the situation a “code red for humanity with dire consequences for the planet.

The authors of the report believe that the world will be 1.5 Celsius hotter in 2040 when compared to pre-industrial times. It is stated that there is an almost certainty of increasingly extreme heatwaves, droughts and flooding. Importantly, a key temperature limit is likely to be broken in just over a decade. Meaning that, by then, climate change, and its effects, will be irreversible.

The report expresses the hope that if humanity acts quickly, then temperatures could be stabilised. Otherwise, many of the consequences that the globe will face will be irreversible. However, this would require deep cuts in the emission of greenhouse gases that, as of yet, are not forthcoming.

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The unrest is set to be the groups first large-scale protest in London since September 2020. In the rally last year, protesters successfully blocked parliament square, as well as targeted Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and disrupted the printing of newspapers.

It is also common for the group to target offices of oil companies, such as BP, as well as banks with strong ties to the fossil fuel industry, such as HSBC. Buildings linked to these companies, such as the National Art Gallery, which is sponsored by BP, have also been the target of unrest in the past.

The group are also prone to publicity stunts that range from being generally disruptive with an underlying image, to what are extremely dangerous headline-grabbing incidents. In the past, windows have been broken or painted black (to signify oil). A decommissioned fire engine was also used to spray “blood” in front of the UK treasury. Operations at City Airport and on the tube have also been disrupted, usually by solo acts by individuals affiliated with the group.

It is highly likely that the upcoming unrest will involve some form of high-profile incident. It is also almost certain that other, smaller, incidents will occur. This could range from the blocking of major roads in the British capital to minor acts of vandalism and sabotage. Non-violent resistance is also likely, with arrests almost certain. Disruption and delays in the capital should be expected.

While it is unclear what exact high-profile incident may or may not be planned, there is a possibility that road, rail and air services in the capital will be disrupted. Major blockages, including the storming of train tracks, blocking all the bridges on the Thames, or disrupting operations at London City and other airports in the capital, are possible.

Outside of London, similar protests should be expected in all cities across the UK, while these will be smaller than those in the capital, disruption is almost certain. Unrest and protests elsewhere, in Europe, Australia and the US, is also highly likely.

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On 15 August 2021, the Afghan capital of Kabul fell to the Taliban. The country’s president, Ashraf Ghani, has also departed for Tajikistan. The Taliban, who refer to themselves as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, are now in control of all major buildings in the city, except for the airport.

The capture has been largely peaceful. Similar to the fall of many of the provincial capitals, the Taliban have faced little resistance in their capture of the city. Indeed, Taliban soldiers have now taken control of the checkpoints and security posts that used to be manned by Afghan soldiers. Despite the relatively peaceful nature of the capitulation and takeover, there have been reports of Taliban forces searching for former government officials and ex-soldiers.

The capitulation has also resulted in Afghan troops surrendering at the airport in Kandahar, the Taliban’s capital prior to 2001. A number of Afghan special forces had been holding out against the Taliban in the strategic and symbolic city’s airport.

It is now almost a formality that the remaining territory in the country will fall under the control of the Taliban, known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Foreign troops do remain in Kabul, mainly to ensure security at the airport. However, these troops are expected to depart by the end of the month.

Despite the almost smooth transition of power, fear has resulted in thousands attempting to flee the city. Many have attempted to storm Kabul’s airport with widely shared video footage on social media showing individuals clinging on to an aircraft’s landing gear as it took off. At least three people were killed as the C-17A transport plane departed the airport, with five others killed on the ground.

As a result of this breach of the airport perimeter, evacuation flights were grounded for a period of time on Monday 16 August. Flights have since recommenced with the US military also taking over the operation of air traffic control. It is possible that further breaches of the airport permitter may occur in the coming days, delaying flights.

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The fall of Kabul and swift capture of most of the country by Taliban forces have taken all commentators by surprise. Even last week US analysts were predicting a 60-90-day timeframe. Given that it has taken just four days from when that estimate was made until the complete collapse of the Western-backed government shows how complete the capitulation of Afghan government troops has been.

The relative peacefulness of the takeover has, however, allowed a sense of calm to descend on Kabul. Taliban soldiers have taken over the running of checkpoints and policing in the city, giving a sort of continuation to operations.

Despite this, however, there are concerns going forward that the reinstalling of Taliban Islamic fundamentalist rule in the country will lead to repression and an undermining of all the positive changes that have occurred in the country. Already air force pilots have been killed in their homes, while a comedian was also executed in Kandahar.

For women too, there are fears that Taliban rule will undermine the advances in schooling and freedom. Though there have been reports of women walking in the street alone since the take over of Kabul, girls have already been turned away from schools in Herat.

The two main concerns for the country and the international community are now a refugee crisis and the risk of a full-scale civil war. It is expected that hundreds of thousands, potentially millions, will now attempt to flee the country. Given the already high levels of food and water insecurity in the region, a humanitarian disaster is a very real possibility. Much will rest on how willing the Taliban will be to open borders and allow aid in.

A large-scale civil war is not looking likely immediately, instead, the Taliban will likely consolidate their control. However, given the tribal nature of the country, and how quickly the situation has changed in the past weeks, an internal conflict in the coming months cannot be ruled out..

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On Sunday, 25 July 2021, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied dismissed the country’s government and suspended parliament. The announcement came after nationwide violent protests over the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the state of the country’s economy. The president announced that he would assume executive authority with a new prime minister.

Protesters this weekend were demanding the removal of the government in response to a spike in COVID-19 cases. Video footage was widely circulated of Tunisians holding slogans against Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, with many shouting and calling for the dissolution of Parliament. Clashes and stone throwing were also reported.

The unrest was not unique, Tunisians have taken to the streets a number of times this year. In addition to protests over the weekend, demonstrations over the country’s situation have been recurring for months, with over 1,000 arrests and one death between January and March 2021.

The move was largely initially welcomed by crowds in the country’s capital, Tunis. Much of the recent anger and unrest in Tunisia had focused on the Ennahdha party, the biggest in parliament. This made the president’s announcement popular, with Saied even joining many of those celebrating on Habib Bourguiba Avenue, the same focal point of the 2011 revolution. With the recent political deadlock, many will be hoping that some sort of action can occur to attempt to tackle the country’s woes.

However, despite the initial apparent jubilation on the street, opponents of the president have condemned the announcement as an attack on democracy. Parliament Speaker Rached Ghannouchi called on regular Tunisians to take to the streets to stop what he is calling a coup, with opponents adding it breaches the constitution.

The president has warned against violence, stating that “whoever shoots a bullet, the armed forces will respond with bullets”. Tunisia’s border security has also been tightened, with reports of a ban on travel for politicians.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

It remains unclear what will happen going forward with concerns of further violence and the possibility of a democratic backslide. The political crisis is the biggest challenge facing Tunisia since the Arab Spring, which started in the country, and its subsequent democratisation in 2011. The country had been the unique success story from the Arab Spring.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the poor economic situation in the country. This has led to thousands being left unemployed with no prospects. Indeed, in 2020, the country’s unemployment rate stood at 16.6 percent, with youth unemployment at 36 percent, higher than it was during the reign of  President Ben Ali.

The removal of the prime minister and parliament will not immediately solve this crisis. Many will, instead, hope that a political decision can now be made effectively, avoiding the repeated stalemate from disagreements between the president, PM and parliament.

However, there are also concerns that unrest could now escalate. Supporters of the largest party in parliament, Ennahda, and other parties opposed to the president have already taken to the street in protest of the announcement. Clashes were reported on Monday in Tunis outside the parliament building, which had been cordoned off by the military.

Going forward, many are looking to where the army stands and what moves they make. During the unrest in 2011, the army stood with protesters against the police and police violence. This has given the country’s armed forces a lot of respect among the general populace.

There will also be the concern of a democratic regression in the country. The bending of the constitution by the president will remind many of former President Ben Ali. While those in country, and in the region, will not be wanting to slide back into a dictatorship, many on the streets will be hoping that something, anything, can improve their prospects.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

SITUATION SUMMARY

Hundreds of people are reportedly unaccounted for following the worst flooding in decades in north-western Germany. Record rainfall has caused rivers to burst their banks and led to widespread devastation in the region. In Germany, more than 80 people are reported to have been killed, while across the border in Belgium, at least 12 people have lost their lives.

In Germany, the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia have been the worst affected. Photos have shown urban areas inundated, cars swept away and, in Cologne, the Rhine River close to bursting its banks. There have also been numerous bridge collapses and roads blocked alongside power failures, hampering rescue efforts. A dam, the Rurtalsperre close to the Belgium border, has also failed, while the Steinbachtalsperre, between Ahrweiler and Erftstadt, is unstable.

Emergency services have been deployed with efforts ongoing to account for those currently unaccounted for.

In Belgium, the rainfall has heavily impacted the country’s east. Even the city of Liege, the third-largest urban centre in Belgium, has been sharply impacted with numerous houses flooded. Around 10 houses collapsed in the Pepinster region are the river Vesdre flooded. A further 1,000 people had to be evacuated from their homes due to fears that further buildings would collapse and/or be inundated.

Switzerland has also seen flooding with officials in Lucerne deploying mobile defences. France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands have also been impacted by the heavy rainfall.

Footage widely circulated on social media has shown the extent of the floods. In Verviers, Belgium, cars were videotaped being swept down the road with onlookers stating that the water was at least 2 metres in depth in some places. Aerial footage has also shown the extent of the flooding, with floodwaters covering whole towns in some places.

SOLACE GLOBAL COMMENT

These are Germany’s worst floods since 2002 when inundations occurred around the Elbe River. The flooding at the time was billed by the German media as “once-in-a-century floods”. They resulted in 21 deaths in eastern Germany and more than 100 fatalities across central Europe. Such extreme weather is only likely to increase in the coming years due to climate change.

Indeed, the Premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, has blamed the extreme weather on global warming. Indeed, it has been widely reported by the scientific community that periods of extreme rainfall, such as what northern Europe is experiencing right now, would become more common due to human-induced climate change.

Outside of the region, the UK was hit by severe flooding earlier in the week. Here, scientists have condemned the government, stating that the country was even less, not more, prepared for extreme weather than it was five years ago.

As a result, further extreme weather events, such as those seen in Germany and Belgium, are likely to only increase in the coming years. Indeed, heavy flooding has been a regular occurrence throughout Europe and the western world. This is despite positive advancements in flood defences in the past decades.

For example, in the UK between late 2019 and early 2020, heavy flooding and extreme weather saw numerous regions flooded and widespread infrastructural damage. Additionally, in France in 2016 and 2020 there was heavy flooding, including in and around Paris and in the country’s southeast. Indeed, the 2020 flooding was accompanied by unprecedented extreme weather. Finally, just last week, Japan saw a number of fatalities following heavy rain and a landslide in Atami City.

Travellers and businesses should be prepared for further disruption, damage and threat to life as a result of climate change-driven extreme weather.

SOLACE GLOBAL ADVICE

In the early morning hours of 7 July, Haiti’s President Jovenel Moïse was shot and killed by unidentified gunmen at his private residence in the Pelerin 5 district of Pétion-Ville, an affluent suburb of Port-au-Prince. First Lady Martine Moïse also sustained critical injuries and is receiving medical treatment in Florida.

A police operation following the killing resulted in the deaths of at least four suspects and two detained. A senior police official indicated other suspects remained at large. There was no immediate comment on the suspects’ identity or possible affiliations.

Preliminary reports indicate the late president’s killers were disguised as US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents, spoke English and Spanish, and carried high-powered weapons. Haiti’s ambassador to the United States, Bocchit Edmond, said he believed the killing was the work of “professional mercenaries” and later said they were disguised as agents.

The assassination was confirmed by Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has subsequently assumed the role of Acting President. In the wake of Moïse’s assassination, PM Joseph declared a nationwide “state of siege” under Article 149 of the Constitution of Haiti. The declaration grants extended executive powers and allows the military to be deployed for policing roles.

Toussaint Louverture International Airport, Haiti’s main airport, was closed by the authorities in the immediate aftermath of the assassination. Several inbound and outbound flights were cancelled, whilst others were diverted to nearby countries.

Authorities in the neighbouring Dominican Republic also announced the closure of the country’s land border with Haiti until further notice. Additional military assets were deployed to the border as a precautionary measure to strengthen the border’s security in anticipation of civil unrest in Haiti.

Mr Joseph also condemned the attack as a “hateful, inhumane and barbaric act.“, and called on the United Nations to hold a Security Council meeting to help shed light on the situation. A UN Security Council is expected to hold a closed-door meeting on 8 July.

The security situation is likely to deteriorate in the coming days and weeks. The reports of the assailants speaking Spanish and English as well as being disguised as DEA agents has led to many alleging that foreign individuals or governments were involved in the attack. As such, anti-foreigner rhetoric and incidents may occur.

Further attacks on members of the Government of Haiti cannot be ruled out. Initial statements from the United States Embassy in Haiti suggest that the assassination of the President was conducted by a group of “well-coordinated” and “highly trained” gunmen. Though the motivation behind the assassination is not known at this time, the Acting President is considered a political ally of the deceased President and may be targeted in a future attack.

Moïse’s time in office has been marked by political instability which was fuelled by corruption allegations and controversial changes to Haiti’s constitution to allow him to run for consecutive terms in office. Large-scale, violent and disruptive protests calling for a different leader and fresh elections have been underway since 2018. In February 2021, the President’s refusal to leave office led to a constitutional crisis and an escalation in violent anti-government unrest, with 31 deaths and 300 injuries.

The fragile political situation has directly affected the wider security environment. It has also served as a trigger for a rise in criminal activities, including gang violence, murders and armed robberies. Instances of kidnapping for ransom have also dramatically risen over the past few months.

Additionally, should there be a delay in holding fresh elections, there is a high likelihood of additional scenes of civil unrest throughout Haiti, particularly in the capital of Port-au-Prince.

For more information, please email info@solaceglobal.com or give us a call on +44 (0) 1202 308 810.

The Bowra Foundation, founded by Mark Bowra was aimed at inspiring resilience among those suffering from neurological disorders through practical challenges. With many of Solace team coming from backgrounds in the Armed Forces we support Mark Bowra’s previous cycling challenges and are proud to support his good friend Ray as he embarks on a new challenge.  

With the integration of GPS tracking devices into our Solace Tracking platform anyone can follow Ray’s tour and watch his progress. You can even monitor when he is coming to your town and cheer him on and maybe even purchase a book.

Solace Global Risk understands the inherent risks faced by film crews, not only in countries of a moderate and high-risk level, but also from the risks that arise with the nature of this topic and operations which are being conducted. Therefore, the need for an appropriate and discreet solution that allowed for little impact on operations, was paramount.

With filming crews in need of discretion, Solace Global Risk provided yet another successful enhanced monitoring and support service that included the provision of (inSIGHT) services*, including pro-actively communicating real-time vicinity incidents and tracking of the teams movements. The team had scheduled check in’s and a comprehensive response protocol plan. This proactive capability, along with access to Solace Global Risk’s tracking platform, Solace Secure, provided the team with vital intelligence to mitigate the risks they faced whilst filming.

Using our overwatch monitoring tool on Solace Secure, our response team were able to monitor the crews regular check in’s. Automated reminders were in place for those in-country to assist  them to check in on time, while our team had eyes on their check in’s 24/7, being able to begin response procedures immediately should anything go amiss.

*inSIGHT (Security/Intelligence/Guidance/Help/Tracking) ensures your people and assets are in constant view of the Solace 24/7 response team. Our pro-active monitoring service will monitor your personnel and assets for you and respond to vicinity risks and incidents. InSIGHT forms part of our Protect series of services which also includes, Tracking & Technology (Solace Secure), Journey Management, Executive Protection & In-Country Security, Crisis Management, Evasion and Response Services.

As a trusted supplier to major media broadcasters, Solace Global understands the extensive risk management needs of media organisations providing enhanced intelligence, check in monitoring, overarching support through Solace Secure plus 24/7 Response Assistance and Crisis Management.

If you require any security advice or assistance on your project, contact our team today at info@solaceglobal.com