The Day of the Young Combatant, 29 March, is highly likely to be marked by protests and clashes in Santiago, and there is a realistic possibility of unrest in other Chilean urban centres.

The Brazilian Supreme Court’s decision to try former President Jair Bolsonaro for his alleged involvement in a coup will likely deepen political divisions and may result in large-scale demonstrations.

Limited Black Sea ceasefire proposal highly likely to be leveraged by Russia to gain concessions while continuing to pursue its maximalist objectives against Ukraine on the battlefield.

Protests are likely to continue in the short term in Turkey, and there is a realistic possibility of an intensification on 28-30 March. Further arrests of journalists and opposition figures are highly likely.

Israeli strikes in southern Beirut likely targeted Hezbollah senior leadership and will likely force Hezbollah into retaliatory attacks on northern Israel.

There is a realistic possibility of a return to civil war in Syria as the interim government struggles to control its disparate forces, a nascent insurgency likely accelerates, and Israel continues aerial strikes.

The new wave of Israeli strikes in Gaza will almost certainly further worsen the humanitarian situation in the territory. Hamas’ leadership is highly likely to reduce its visibility to avert the threat of decapitation.

It is likely that South Sudan will return to civil war following the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar, with the power-sharing terms of the 2018 peace agreement having been effectively dismantled by President Salva Kiir.

The approaching deadline for the forced deportation of Afghan migrants from Pakistan is likely to result in security implications in both countries, including increased radicalisation, unrest and militancy.  

Significant damage and casualties almost certain after 7.7 magnitude earthquake close to Mandalay, Myanmar’s second biggest city. Significant disruptions likely to persist in Thailand.

Further wildfires likely in South Korea due to particularly dry weather after the country experiences its largest wildfires on record.

On 26 March, Brazil’s Supreme Court unanimously ruled that former President Jair Bolsonaro will face trial for his alleged role in attempting to overthrow the government in a military coup following his electoral defeat in 2022.

The former president will face charges relating to his involvement in an armed criminal organisation, participating in a group formed to undermine democratic institutions, and attempting to violently abolish the democratic rule of law, alleging that he sought to overthrow Brazil’s democratic system through force. He is also charged with conspiring to execute a coup d’état to depose the legitimately elected government. Additionally, he faces accusations of causing damage to federal property during post-election unrest and making serious threats against the state that could “destabilise governmental functions”.

If convicted, Bolsonaro could face a substantial prison sentence. The trial is expected to take place in late 2025, but a specific date has yet to be announced.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The trial of Bolsonaro will almost certainly have major political implications as it threatens to fracture Brazil’s powerful right-wing movement and will permanently end the former president’s political career. Consequently, much of his substantial support base will likely interpret this as a politically motivated move against the right ahead of the 2026 presidential election.

As recently as 16 March, thousands of supporters gathered at Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana Beach to express support for Bolsonaro and demand a pardon for those accused of ransacking government buildings. While these protests did not attract as many as originally forecasted, the confirmation of a trial likely has the capacity to reinvigorate his support base, leading to larger and more frequent demonstrations.

There is a realistic possibility that the confirmation of a trial may provoke immediate rallies in several Brazilian cities that may result in violent interactions with the police or transport disruptions.

On 29 March, Chile will observe the 40^th “Day of the Young Combatant” (Día del joven combatiente). The day commemorates the killing of the two Vergara Toledo brothers in Santiago in 1985 during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.

The two brothers were allegedly part of the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR), a radical left-wing group that was at the forefront of the struggle against the dictatorship. The commemoration also extends to the other activists who were killed or imprisoned during the dictatorship.

The anniversary has continued to be politically relevant, reflecting broader anti-government and anti-police sentiment.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Several protests are planned to occur in downtown Santiago on 29 March. Unrest is likely to start in the late morning of 29 March and continue throughout the day, highly likely intensifying in the evening when organised rallies and protests conclude.

Past demonstrations during the Day of the Young Combatants have consisted of protesters erecting makeshift barriers, burning tyres, vandalising private businesses (particularly banks and the offices of foreign companies), firing projectiles including fireworks, and throwing Molotov cocktails at the police and other targets. Some demonstrators will likely be armed and are likely to seek direct confrontation with police forces. Chilean police will almost certainly deploy violent crowd control measures in response to the unrest, including tear gas, pepper spray, water cannons, and possibly rubber bullets. Past demonstrations have resulted in dozens of arrests.

While Santiago will almost certainly be the epicentre of the protests, unrest is possible in the central areas of Valparaiso, Conception, Telmuco, and other Chilean cities. There is a realistic possibility that protests will be driven by other grievances disconnected from the commemoration. For instance, there are ongoing protests in Valparaiso over a controversial fishing sector law; local left-wing groups may seek to stage joint unrest during the Day of the Young Combatant to capitalise on visibility.

Canada’s new Prime Minister calls snap elections for 28 April 2025

Mark Carney succeeded Justin Trudeau after the latter resigned amidst extremely low polling numbers for his Liberal Party. In his short tenure, Carney has seen his party massively rising in the polls and matching the opposition, the Conservative Party. The unprecedented surge in Liberal support, which has almost certainly re-opened the electoral race, was highly likely driven by the trade war with the United States, with the Conservatives perceived as too “Trump-friendly” by parts of the centrist electorate. Carney highly likely called the vote to both benefit from the surge in popular support and to increase the political legitimacy of his leadership.

Peru to hold general elections in April 2026

On 26 March, Peruvian President Dina Boluarte announced that the country would hold general elections in April 2026 in an effort to resolve ongoing instability. A new president, 130 deputies and 60 senators will be up for election.

The current president has not stated whether she will stand, however, Boluarte’s approval rating has hit an all-time low, with 93 per cent of Peruvians stating that they disapprove of the president. Widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent government has likely been influenced by a huge rise in violent crime across Peru. This has involved indiscriminate attacks on public transportation and businesses linked to extortion rackets controlled by powerful transnational gangs.

The violence has become so severe that a 30-day state of emergency covering the capital Lima, and the neighbouring province of Callao was imposed on 18 March. Similar measures are likely to be introduced to curb the rise of violent crime, with Boluarte recently replacing the Interior Minister with a retired police general, a move that likely indicates her government’s intention to take a more hardline approach to law enforcement.   

10 April general strike to be held in Argentina against President Milei’s policies

Argentina’s largest trade union federation, the General Confederation of Labor (CGT), has announced a 24-hour general strike on 10 April to protest President Javier Milei’s austerity policies. This will be the third general strike since Milei took office in December 2023.

The CGT cited wage restrictions, declining purchasing power, job losses, and cuts to the public health system as reasons for the strike. The union also plans to participate in protests on 24 March to commemorate victims of Argentina’s last military dictatorship, as well as demonstrations on 9 April and International Workers’ Day on 1 May. Protests will likely result in disruption to key sectors such as transport, healthcare, banking, and public administration and could result in violent interactions with the police.

FBI establishes task force to investigate vandalism across the US

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has established a new task force to investigate escalating vandalism at Tesla dealerships and charging stations across the US. Some attacks have included incidents involving incendiary devices and assaults, leading the FBI to refer to some of the action as “domestic terrorism”.

The attacks are almost certainly linked to the divisive involvement of Tesla CEO Elon Musk within the Trump administration, which has led to budget cuts and the loss of thousands of federal jobs and will almost certainly continue in line with government policies.

Previous attacks on infrastructure powering Tesla-linked facilities have caused significant disruptions to other businesses that rely on the same infrastructure, affecting their operations and productivity, as demonstrated by the attack on energy infrastructure powering the Tesla Giga factory near Berlin, Germany.

Car driven into anti-Tesla protesters in Florida

On 22 March, a man reportedly drove his vehicle into a group of protesters gathered outside a Tesla dealership in Palm Beach. No serious injuries were recorded, and the man was arrested by police. It is highly likely that the incident was a targeted attack on the demonstrators. The episode is notable as it matches a trend, observed in the US as well as in some European countries, of car-ramming attacks against high-visibility protest crowds. For instance, during the 2020-2021 Black Lives Matter protests, more than 60 car-ramming attacks on crowds were recorded. As anti-Tesla protests are likely to remain highly visible, the threat of further attacks remains.

US mulls death penalty for notorious Mexican drug lord

The US is considering the death penalty for Mexican drug lord, Rafael Caro Quintero, following his extradition. Quintero, who has been linked to the killing of DEA agent Enrique Camarena, has been charged with continuing criminal enterprise and conspiracy to import cocaine, among other charges. The growing threat of extradition, long prison sentences, and the death penalty is likely to send a message to the Mexican cartels, who may adapt their operations or even respond with increased violence to shield themselves from this developing threat.

Severe flooding continues to impact US-Mexico border

Severe flooding continues to impact communities along the US- Mexico border, causing widespread disruptions on both sides. Authorities have issued flash flood warnings in affected areas, with emergency responders conducting rescues as rising waters trap residents.

Schools have been forced to close, and non-emergency communication lines are down in some locations, though emergency services remain operational. In Mexico, multiple neighbourhoods are inundated, prompting the opening of emergency shelters. Reports indicate at least one fatality due to drowning, while infrastructure damage includes a hospital roof collapse.

Power outages are affecting thousands as utility crews work to restore service. Low-lying areas are at high risk with further rain forecasted, which is likely to disrupt emergency efforts and delay border crossings.

Bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia between US-Russia and US-Ukraine have continued. On 25 March, the White House announced that an agreement had been reached with Russia to “eliminate the use of a force” and “prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”. In exchange, the US will “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports”, including a reference to enhancing access to “ports and payment systems for such transactions.”

The Kremlin stated that the limited Black Sea ceasefire would only come into force if specific demands were met, particularly: the lifting of sanctions from the agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank and its reconnection to the SWIFT international payment system.

Kyiv also agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire proposal but emphasised that any movement of Russian naval vessels outside of the “Eastern part of the Black Sea” would violate the agreement.

On 26 March, statements from both Kyiv and Moscow accused each other of breaching the earlier 18 March energy infrastructure ceasefire. Russian officials have accused Ukraine of striking energy infrastructure in Kursk Oblast, Crimea, and Bryansk Oblast between 25-26 March, while Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of conducting at least eight strikes on energy facilities since 18 March.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The nature of the bilateral talks and limited ceasefire agreements, which have excluded any direct Russia-Ukraine talks and have not produced any jointly signed agreements, highly likely make their conditions challenging to enforce. It is almost certain that cyclical accusations of ceasefire violations will continue, with differing understandings of the specific conditions or terms of the agreements.

The Black Sea ceasefire proposal will highly likely only have a small impact on the overall strategic picture of the war, with the Russian Black Sea Fleet being only minimally active since the emergence of the Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel (USV) threat to Russian vessels. Ukraine has leveraged USVs, in addition to anti-ship missile systems, to effectively challenge Russia in the maritime domain and force its retrograde from its home port of Sevastopol.

The Black Sea ceasefire, therefore, likely provides tangible advantages to Russia as its maritime threat has been successfully challenged. Additionally, there is a plausible scenario in which the Black Sea Fleet could exploit the ambiguous terms to launch ship and submarine-launched missiles from the Black Sea at land-based targets in Ukraine, intentionally interpreting the terms as applying solely to attacks against targets within the Black Sea.

A cessation of Ukraine’s USV threat may also enable Russia to resume its maritime resupply from mainland Russia to Crimea, which could help Russia sustain operations in places like Kherson and Zaporizhia. Russia may honour a deal which includes refraining from attacking merchant shipping, as this would help ensure global food security, enabling it to secure its geopolitical influence, particularly in developing countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian grain.

The US President Donald Trump’s administration is likely motivated to further a narrative that they are furthering progress towards peace in Ukraine, even if the limited ceasefire agreements are largely symbolic and lacking in specifically enforceable conditions that are mutually ratified. The Kremlin will highly likely continue to leverage ceasefire talks and proposals to gain concessions while continuing to pursue their maximalist objectives on the battlefield.

The Black Sea agreement has been specifically leveraged by Putin, for example, to gain the potential removal of SWIFT sanctions for Rosselkhozbank. In 2022, following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, major Russian banks were removed from the SWIFT network, which is critical to facilitating cross-border payments in the international financial system. However, it is likely that the Trump administration will face significant challenges in complying with demands to remove such key sanctions, as EU cooperation would be necessary.

Moscow is almost certainly incentivised to further a split between the US and Ukraine’s European partners and will likely intensify hybrid operations against European targets as the transatlantic rift widens.

Turkish authorities have arrested and deported BBC journalist Mark Lowen over “threats to public order” and have detained at least seven other journalists, including those from AFP, over their coverage of the unrest. Protests have continued in Istanbul and other large urban centres a week after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu.

Approximately 2,000 people have been detained so far due to the unrest, and more than 150 police officers have been injured. The municipality council of Istanbul elected an interim mayor on 26 March, preventing the government from appointing a trustee to oversee the city’s administration.

Ankara has likewise imposed bans on reporting on opposition television and radio channels, threatening them with closure if they do not comply.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The protests have slightly decreased in intensity compared to the 19-21 March period but remain active, especially in Istanbul. There is a realistic possibility of another increase in intensity during the weekend of 29-30 March, with the Turkish opposition vowing that protests will continue in “every city.

The government of Turkey has sought to capitalise on its geopolitical successes to minimise the possibility of European pushback on its crackdown on the opposition, and, with Turkish financial assets plunging, Ankara likely assesses that Brussels will not take the politically risky choice of imposing sanctions.

It is likely that unrest will continue in the medium term and that Ankara will continue using the police to target the opposition and journalists covering the protests. Travellers are likewise at risk of arbitrary detention, and there is a high likelihood that authorities will use emergency powers, such as travel restrictions for participants in demonstrations, to quash voices perceived as dissenting.

There is a realistic possibility that Imamoglu’s arrest is just the initial step in a series of actions aimed at suppressing the opposition and securing the reform of the constitutional limit on presidential terms, ultimately paving the way for Erdogan’s victory at the polls. In such a case, Turkey is likely to experience episodic unrest in response to these moves until the run-up to the 2028 elections.

On 21 March, rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have intercepted three rockets, and a further three landed in Lebanese territory. This marks the first rocket attack on northern Israel from Lebanon since early December.

The IDF responded with counter-battery fire and then conducted two waves of air strikes on 22-23 March against Hezbollah high-value targets across Lebanon, including weapons depots, headquarters, fighters, and rocket launchers. The attacks were confined to southern Lebanon and the Hezbollah stronghold of the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.

However, on 28 March, the IDF issued evacuation orders for residents of Hadath in southern Beirut to evacuate in the first such order for the Lebanese capital since the ceasefire was established.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The limited nature of the rocket attack may suggest that this was not an attack authorised by Hezbollah’s senior leadership, indicating the possibility of a rogue faction or lower-ranking operatives acting independently. However, the initial response from the IDF likely indicates that Israel is seeking to exploit the attack to further degrade the Shia militant group.

IDF strikes on this scale have likely undermined any prospects for de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and are likely to lead to a renewed threat in northern Israel. Hezbollah likely has some tolerance for attacks on rank-and-file fighters or rocket launch sites. However, the evacuation order for parts of southern Beirut, a known Hezbollah stronghold, likely indicates that the IDF has conducted a strike on a high-value target, most likely the senior leadership.

If this is the case, this will almost certainly be beyond Hezbollah’s threshold for attacks and will highly likely result in retaliatory attacks that will undermine the already fragile ceasefire agreement.

The Syrian interim-government controlled Ministry of Information reported on 24 March that a cyberattack had targeted official government platforms and private social media accounts. The Ministry claims that the attack was an organised effort conducted by Assad-regime remnants.

On early 25 March starting at 02:40 local time, a nationwide total internet outage occurred, lasting for approximately 12 hours. Authorities stated that the outage was the result of sabotage, with two fibre optic cables being cut near Homs and Damascus.

Concurrently, on early 25 March, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted aerial strikes on a former Syrian Arab Army (SAA) airbase near Palmyra. This was followed on 27 March by multiple IAF strikes against an ammunition warehouse in the White Harbour area of Latakia, with no casualties yet to be reported.

On 26 March, the former Grand Mufti of Syria, Sheikh Ahmed Badr al-Din Hassoun, who served in the official Sunni religious leadership post between 2005 and 2021, was arrested by Syrian security forces. Hassoun was arrested at Damascus International Airport (DAM) whilst attempting to depart Syria to Amman, Jordan for a surgical operation.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The Transitional President of Syria and former Emir of the now officially dissolved Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed al-Sharaa, has to contend with a myriad of threats to Syria’s security. The Israeli strikes are indicative of a continuing strategic objective for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to degrade the future potential of Syria’s new armed forces, with the HTS-led interim government almost certainly perceived as a threat to Israel’s security.

It is estimated that al-Sharaa’s HTS group is comprised of only 20,000 fighters, including a notable contingent of jihadist foreign fighters, who now serve as the core of Syria’s new national armed forces. This relatively small size has almost certainly forced al-Sharaa to rely on fighters from other groups officially integrating into the Syrian Army for Syria’s defence, such as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).

As demonstrated by the retribution massacres conducted against Syrian Alawites in early March, it is highly likely that Damascus exercises minimal command and control over the disparate groupings of fighters that act on behalf of the new Syrian state.

The arrest of Hassoun follows an arrest warrant being issued, with Hassoun having been a firm supporter of the Assad regime. Whilst al-Sharaa has promised amnesty for surrendering SAA soldiers and lower-level officials, he has also promised to bring justice to leading regime figures and SAA commanders responsible for crimes against humanity.

In February, protesters stormed Hassoun’s home in Aleppo following sightings of the former Grand Mufti being publicised on social media, with anger being further catalysed by videos depicting him as the “Mufti of Barrels”, almost certainly in reference to the barrel bombs deployed by the regime against urban centres during the civil war.

Syrian security forces had protected Hassoun’s home and dispersed the protesters during the February protests, however, his arrest now is likely indicative of increasing efforts by Damascus to prosecute regime remnants with the threat of a nascent insurgency and likely increasing dissatisfaction from hardliners against al-Sharaa.

Although it is likely that both the past week’s cyberattacks and sabotage against critical telecommunications infrastructure were conducted by individuals associated with Assad-regime remnants, there is a realistic possibility that Israeli covert operations have also played a supporting role to further undermine the burgeoning but highly fragile post-Assad Syrian state. It is likely that in the pursuit of their objectives, leading Israeli military and intelligence figures are incentivised to support the fracturing of the new Syrian state.

There is a realistic possibility of a return to civil war in Syria if the interim government remains unable to control the latent extremist elements in its de facto irregular armed forces and regime remnant insurgent groups grow in popularity amongst the under-threat Alawite minority. A renewed civil war is likely to draw in both Hezbollah and Iran, a development that would benefit Israel by diverting the attention and resources of these hostile actors away from its borders.

Ten days after the collapse of the ceasefire, Israeli forces have continued to carry out airstrikes in the Gaza Strip with the aim of decapitating the remaining Hamas leadership and forcing the group to release the remaining hostages. More than 800 Palestinians have been reportedly killed since the resumption of hostilities.

On 23-24 March, Salah al-Bardawil, a senior member of Hamas’ political bureau, was killed in a strike in the al-Mawasi zone in Khan Yunis. Another member of the political bureau, Ismail Barhoum, was killed in a strike on Nasser Hospital. Since 2 March, the Gaza Strip has been under an aid blockade, causing food prices to surge, according to reports from the World Food Programme (WFP) and other humanitarian agencies.

Solace Global Assessment: 

It is highly likely that the blockade, strikes, and evacuation orders (which reportedly have displaced over 130,000 since 18 March) will result in a sharp short-term increase in the severity of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Militarily, it is highly likely that Israeli forces’ sudden and coordinated wave of attacks starting on 18 March took advantage of Hamas’ operational security vulnerabilities. This likely enabled successful decapitation strikes against the group’s leadership. Furthermore, it is likely that Israel used the ceasefire period to conduct increased intelligence gathering, refining target lists and exploiting Hamas’ weaknesses to enhance the effectiveness of these strikes.

Israeli and Hamas officials have resumed truce talks in Qatar indirectly via an Egyptian delegation. On 27 March, Egyptian officials reported a series of further ceasefire terms being discussed by the two sides. There is a realistic possibility that the high intensity of Israeli strikes in Gaza is aimed at forcing Hamas officials into granting further concessions, such as a more expedited release of the remaining hostages. Hamas almost certainly retains a fundamental interest in remaining the key political force capable of exercising administrative functions in Gaza. Israeli strikes may put pressure on the group by forcing it to become less visible, thus threatening its political viability.

Late on 26 March, a heavily armed convoy comprising high-ranking security officials, including the defence minister, stormed the Juba residence of South Sudan’s First Vice President Riek Machar, disarmed his security personnel, and placed him under house arrest. The arrest follows a marked escalation in South Sudanese tensions since late February. These tensions have triggered fears of a return to civil war following heavy fighting between the national army and White Army militias in Nasir, Upper Nile State.

Clashes have continued, with a spokesman from Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) claiming on 24 March that South Sudanese military airstrikes struck an SPLM-IO base near Wun Aliet, Unity State. This followed an incident where SPLM-IO and government Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) forces almost opened fire on one another near Wun Aliet following perceived hostile manoeuvring.

Both the UK Foreign Office and US State Department have advised their nationals to leave South Sudan immediately if safe to do so.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The risk of a return to civil war has almost certainly significantly increased following Machar’s detention, with the SPLM-IO stating that his arrest has invalidated the 2018 peace deal. The fundamental power-sharing basis for the 2018 peace agreement has almost certainly been effectively dismantled by President Salvar Kiir in recent weeks.

It is likely that armed confrontations between SPLM and SPLM-IO ground forces will break out as troops continue to engage in brinkmanship, which would, in turn, likely lead to further nationwide escalation. It is highly likely that if the civil war resumes, fighting will break out in similar patterns to the 2013-2018 conflict, resulting in significant civilian casualties and displacement, including gun battles in the capital, Juba.

There is also a risk of regional escalation, with the deployment of Ugandan forces to Juba to support Kiir leading to significant condemnation from SPLM-IO figures.

UK-based environmentalist group announces end to direct action

On 27 March, Just Stop Oil (JSO), an environmentalist group that has carried out multiple high-visibility protests in London and other large UK cities, announced it would cease direct action following a protest on 26 April. The group justified the move by stating that their demands had been satisfied by government policy. JSO is an important direct-action group, and the decision to end protests will likely create more opportunities for smaller movements to recruit and stage actions.

General strike to be held in Belgium on 31 March

A general strike is scheduled to take place in Belgium on 31 March, organised by the socialist trade union FGTB/ABVV and the Christian union CSC/ACV in response to cuts in the new Federal Government’s budget. The strike will almost certainly result in significant nationwide disruptions and coincide with widespread protests.

Key sectors, including education and public services, will be affected as workers take to the streets to protest what they consider anti-social measures, such as cuts to pensions and benefits. All passenger flights from Brussels Airport and Charleroi Airport will be cancelled, with Brussels Airlines set to suspend all its operations. Rail services will also face disruptions, and public transport across Brussels will be significantly affected.

German far right march in Berlin

Around 40 people were detained by police on 22 March during a march by far-right groups, including neo-Nazi formations, in the Friedrichshain area of Berlin. The march consisted of around 850 individuals and is assessed as being the largest neo-Nazi demonstration in Berlin in recent months. According to local media, at least 2,000 counterprotesters blocked the march’s path, resulting in its early end. 

Austria uncovers large-scale information operations in German-speaking countries

According to Austrian authorities, shortly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cell run by a Bulgarian national began spreading large quantities of disinformation with the goal of influencing popular opinion in Austria and Germany. The cell, which posed as a pro-Ukraine group, reportedly had ties to Jan Marsalek, the COO of the insolvent payment processing firm Wirecard, who is currently a fugitive and is alleged to be an asset for Russian intelligence.

The Austrian group reportedly used low-cost and low-sophistication tactics, both online and offline, such as vandalism. The case further highlights how Russia is exploiting internal divisions in Europe to sponsor highly deniable and low-cost acts of sabotage and violence to deter, disrupt and divide its adversaries, a trend that will likely increase if Europe increases its support for Ukraine in response to US disengagement.

Thousands continue to protest in Hungary over Pride parade banning

On 25 March, thousands of protestors in Budapest blocked major roads and bridges in response to the government’s decision to ban Pride events and restrict the right to assembly. The protest was the second in two weeks since the ruling Fidesz party used its two-thirds parliamentary majority to expedite the law. The authorities will now also be authorised to use facial recognition software to identify those who attend the prohibited event. Further protests will highly likely be organised in central Budapest in the run-up to the city’s 30^th Pride parade anniversary, scheduled for 28 June. Any attempt to hold a parade will almost certainly to be met with police opposition.

Protests in North Macedonia over nightclub fire

On 24 March, thousands of protestors gathered in the North Macedonian capital of Skopje to demand greater accountability for those responsible for the 16 March nightclub fire that killed 59 people. The government has arrested at least 13 people, including a former finance minister and seven police officers, as part of a corruption investigation linked to the fire. However, public outrage remains high and over 100 victims of the fire remain in care in multiple European hospitals. Further deaths and he failure to hold those responsible to account will likely trigger further protests, which may evolve into a wider movement against perceived corruption in the country.

Niger’s junta government outlines a five-year transition to constitutional rule

On 26 March, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who came to power in a military coup in July 2023, was sworn in under a new charter which replaced Niger’s old constitution. Under the new charter, Tchiani is set to be president for a transition period of five years, rejecting attempts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to hasten the return to democracy after Niger proposed a three-year transition period. The new charter allows flexibility on the five-year term, depending on the status of the insurgencies.

The move comes after Niger’s government left ECOWAS alongside Mali and Burkina Faso to form a trilateral Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which enables the conflict-ridden countries greater sovereignty and independence. Burkina Faso’s military junta has already extended the transition period to July 2029, while Mali postponed elections scheduled for February 2024 with no new date set.

Zimbabwean president dismisses army chief

On 26 March, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa fired the country’s head of the armed forces, General Anselem Sanyatwe, amid rising concerns about a potential coup from former allies. President Mnangagwa is facing increasing pressure from members of his ZANU-PF party and from war veterans, who accuse him of worsening the nation’s economic crisis and trying to extend his rule beyond 2028. The dismissal follows the reshuffling of the military, police, and intelligence positions, moves that have likely been conducted to help Mnangagwa consolidate his power and send a message to those demanding he is replaced.

Several influential veterans of the country’s war of independence have called for nationwide demonstrations to be organised on 31 March, demanding that Mnangagwa step down. If the protests materialise, there is a strong likelihood that the government will respond with violence, given that Zimbabwean security forces have previously used excessive force, including live ammunition, to suppress protests, as seen after the 2018 elections.

Five wounded after knife attack in central Amsterdam, the Netherlands

On 27 March, a man reportedly carried out a knife attack in Dam Square in central Amsterdam, wounding five people, including a child. No deaths have been reported as of the time of writing, and the attacker was subdued by bystanders on the scene before being arrested. The attacker’s identity has not officially been confirmed as of the time of writing. There is a realistic possibility that the attack was an ideologically motivated case of lone wolf terrorism, due to both its dynamics and the attacker’s choice of a high-visibility area of Amsterdam’s centre.

US continue unilateral strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen

The US’ Central Command (CENTCOM) has continued to conduct unilateral strikes on a series of targets across Houthi-controlled Yemen. Yemeni media report that at least 44 US strikes were conducted on the night of 27-28 March, with targets hit across Sana’a, Amran, Sa’dah, Al Hudaydah and Al Jawf regions, purportedly including residential neighbourhoods in the capital Sana’a and the port city of Hodeida. This marks a major shift in strategy under President Trump, moving to targeting senior leadership and even rank-and-file personnel in major population centres, rather than strictly targeting military facilities in sparsely populated areas.

The strikes are likely a direct response to escalating Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and US military assets in the region, as well as renewed attacks on Israel. However, the strikes are likely to increase international condemnation, strengthen anti-US sentiment in the region and could provoke Iran into providing more support to the militant group. The Houthis’ immediate response will likely be to escalate attacks on merchant shipping, US military assets, and Israel in a show of defiance.

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) take Khartoum, ending a two-year-long battle

On 26 March, SAF officials claimed they had taken control of the entirety of the Sudanese capital after expelling the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from their final strongholds in the city’s south. The capture of Khartoum concludes a two-month-long offensive and, more broadly, almost two years of fighting over control of the city. RSF leaders have pledged that they will continue to fight; they will highly likely concentrate most of their efforts in the country’s west, with the goal of establishing a viable political entity.

Taking Khartoum is not only a political victory but is likely also a strategic one. Establishing control over the city will allow the SAF to solidify its positions on the eastern banks of the Nile and subsequently concentrate their forces for a westward offensive into RSF-controlled territory.

Islamists kill over 40 in Niger mosque attack

On 21 March, Islamist militants surrounded the Fambita Mosque in Niger’s southwest Tillabéri Region and randomly shot at worshippers, killing 44 and injuring a further 11. The militants then reportedly set fire to a market and several homes in the area. The attack occurred during Friday prayers in the last ten days of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Local sources have attributed the attack to the Islamic State’s Sahel Province (ISSP), formerly the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). The intent of the attackers was almost certainly to cause as many civilian deaths as possible to instil fear and could have been retaliation for supporting rival groups or the government.

The attack is a further indication of the destabilisation of the Sahel region and demonstrates how extremist groups are continuing to exploit the Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso tri-border area as a safe haven due to its porous borders and lack of effective governance.

Islamists attack separate army facilities in Nigeria’s Borno State

On 24-25 March, Islamist militants launched coordinated attacks on an army base and a military outpost in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno State, killing at least 16 soldiers. The militants are expected to have belonged to both Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), according to Nigerian military sources.

In a potential sign of growing sophistication, the militants reportedly reconnoitred the positions with drones before conducting a ground assault and successfully looted a stockpile of weapons. The attacks will likely embolden militants in the area, especially if there is developing coordination between Boko Haram and ISWAP, who have previously fought against one another.

The attack may indicate a temporal alliance between the rival Islamist groups, with both likely attempting to exploit Nigerian military defences or seize an opportunity to overstretch its forces.

Al-Shabab kill Kenyan police officers in cross-border attack

On 23 March, suspected al-Shabaab militants launched an attack on a police camp in Garissa County, Kenya, near the Somalia border. The assault resulted in six police officers being killed and four others injured. The attackers used a variety of weapons to overpower the camp housing police reservists. The US embassy in Kenya has issued a travel alert, warning citizens to avoid parts of Kenya, including Garissa, due to the threat of militancy. The attack demonstrates al-Shabab’s ability to cross porous borders to conduct attacks, which it likely uses to obtain international publicity, recruit from within Kenya and to deter Kenyan counter-insurgency efforts.

AFC/M23 backtrack from agreement to relinquish control of Walikale in the DRC’s North Kivu region

On 20 March, AFC/M23 captured the mining hub town of Walikale in North Kivu, which is the furthest west the group has advanced since their conception in 2012. However, in a reported peace gesture, they announced that they would withdraw their forces on 22 March. In exchange for the withdrawal, they requested that Walikale and its surrounding area remain demilitarised, stating that hostilities would resume if the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) returned.

They then changed their mind, stating that they would not pull out unless the FARDC pulled out first. Fighting has resumed in the territory; three people were reportedly killed following a shootout between AFC/M23 near Walikale on 27 March. The attempt to withdraw from Walikale while preventing a FARDC takeover of the city is highly likely indicative that AFC/M23 are overstretched and cannot hold Walikale while continuing to also advance north and south. Therefore, the withdrawal of troops from the town likely indicates that they will redeploy the forces to support an advance either north towards Butembo, south towards Uvira, or potentially both.

Evacuations underway in Campania, Italy, over volcanic risk

At least 350 people have been evacuated so far from the area of Pozzuoli, near Naples, following tremors. The town is located on the Phlegraean Fields, a caldera volcano which is assessed as one of Europe’s major volcanoes. On 13 March, a 4.6 earthquake was recorded in the area, the strongest in 40 years and between 17 and 23 March, 42 localised earthquakes were recorded.

On 22 March, small-scale clashes were recorded between police forces and members of a local citizens’ group who were demonstrating to request government intervention to address the risks of growing seismic activity. An eruption at the Phlegraean Fields site could be extremely disruptive and endanger much of the resident populations of Naples and nearby areas. However, even smaller-scale seismic activity could affect the operations of the port of Pozzuoli and nearby infrastructure. Importantly, much of the residential infrastructure in the Campania region is not earthquake-proof, meaning that even intermediate-strength tremors can cause major damage.

All “illegal foreigners” currently residing in Pakistan will be expected to exit the country by 31 March or face deportation, which is scheduled to start from 1 April. The order, which comes from Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, will extend to Afghan nationals holding Afghan Citizen Cards and is set to affect nearly 900,000 individuals. There are also approximately 1.3 million Afghan migrants legally residing in Pakistan with a proof of residence permit, and it is unclear as to how the directive will impact them.

The deportation order comes shortly after the reopening of the main border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which had been closed following border clashes in February 2023. Human rights groups like Amnesty International have condemned the deportation programme, labelling it a violation of international human rights law and the principle of non-refoulement.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The deportation programme is part of a wider campaign against Afghans residing in Pakistan. This has involved widespread harassment, arbitrary detentions, deportations, human rights violations, and the bulldozing of Afghan homes and businesses. The Pakistani government has also engaged in the scapegoating of Afghans, blaming them for crime, drug trafficking, terrorism, and civil unrest, enabling it to achieve significant support for the deportations. However, the deportation programme is likely to have security implications in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan, the mass return of deported individuals will almost certainly place incredible strain on an already fragile state struggling with economic hardship and a dire humanitarian situation. The influx of returnees, many without support networks or a means of livelihood, will likely exacerbate poverty, fuel instability, and fuel radicalisation, especially as many originally fled from the Taliban. Militant groups, such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), will likely capitalise on this to expand recruitment, increasing the risks of terror attacks in Afghanistan and cross-border attacks into Pakistan.

In Pakistan, the removal of Afghans is unlikely to produce the security benefits the government claims. The directive is likely to risk exacerbating tensions with the Taliban, who are likely to interpret it as persecution of the Afghan diaspora. There is a realistic possibility that the Taliban will respond with increased attacks on Pakistani security services on the border or by supporting cross-border attacks in Pakistan by groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

The targeting of Afghan nationals may also deepen sectarian and ethnic divides, increasing the likelihood of civil unrest. Moreover, Pakistan’s security forces are likely ill-equipped to deal with the logistical challenges of forcibly relocating hundreds of thousands of people. With ongoing sectarian violence and a surge in militancy across Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and other regions, Pakistani forces are likely overstretched, a scenario militant groups may seek to exploit to further undermine the central government.

At 12:50 local time (06:20 UTC) on 28 March, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck the Sagaing Region of central Myanmar. The epicentre was located approximately 16 kilometres north-northwest of Sagaing City in Mandalay’s outskirts, at a depth of ten kilometres. The main tremor was followed by several aftershocks of above 5.0 magnitude. The earthquake caused widespread damage across the cities of Sagaing and Mandalay, with multiple high-rise buildings and bridges destroyed. Tremors have also been felt in neighbouring countries, including Vietnam, Bangladesh, China, and Thailand.

The impacts of the earthquake were felt strongly in Thailand, where shaking caused buildings to collapse in Bangkok. The Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra declared a state of emergency within the first hours of the earthquake being felt and also ordered the evacuation of tall buildings in Bangkok, at least one of which collapsed while under construction. Communications were disrupted in Bangkok, and the Transport Ministry temporarily suspended flights nationwide for approximately 20 minutes; flights have since resumed. Train services were also suspended in the capital until further notice.

Official casualty figures are currently unclear. Myanmar’s military junta controls most radio, television, print, and online media; internet use is restricted; and communication lines are currently down. According to the US Geological Survey, thousands are likely dead as a result of the shaking, stating that ‘high casualties and extensive damage are probable, and the disaster is likely widespread.’ Myanmar’s national disaster management committee has declared a state of emergency in Sagaing, Mandalay, Magway, northeastern Shan State, Naypyitaw Council Area, and Bago.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The earthquake is the strongest in Myanmar in over 150 years. The last comparable tremor occurred in 2012 when a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck near Shwebo, 120 kilometres north of Mandalay. The 2012 earthquake resulted in 26 fatalities: a toll almost certain to be considerably exceeded by the latest quake. North-central, south-central, and central Myanmar frequently experiences seismic activity due to their location within the convergence zone of the Indian and Sunda Plates, where tectonic stress is periodically released as earthquakes.

Several aftershocks have already been felt in Myanmar; further aftershocks are highly likely in the coming days. While the aftershocks are unlikely to reach a similar magnitude to the initial earthquake, further aftershocks of over 5.0 magnitude may still occur. This could further damage structures that have already been weakened by the initial tremor and hinder relief efforts.

A humanitarian crisis has been ongoing in the country since the military conducted a coup in February 2021, deposing the democratically elected government. Several resistance groups formed in the aftermath, triggering a civil war. Significant civilian casualties and widespread displacement have occurred as a result of the conflict, and the nation faces a worsening humanitarian crisis. The earthquake will almost certainly exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis by disrupting power and water infrastructure, trade routes, and agriculture, which accounts for between 25 and 30 per cent of Myanmar’s GDP.

The likely limited assistance will almost certainly be exacerbated by the presence of rebel groups in Mandalay. These groups include Mandalay People’s Defence Force (PDF), Ta’ang National Liberation Front (TNLF), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA).  On 14 March, at least 27 people were killed and at least 30 injured after Myanmar’s military junta conducted an airstrike on Singu Township, Mandalay. It is likely that rebel groups will take advantage of the damaged infrastructure and communications networks in the region to capture government-held territory near Mandalay.

Wildfires which have been burning since 21 March have destroyed at least 118,000 acres. The fires originated in Uiseong and have moved rapidly eastward, fuelled by dry conditions, high winds, and an abundance of sap-filled pine trees. The counties of Uiseong, Andong, Sancheong and the city of Ulsan have been hit the hardest. At least 28 people have been killed so far, 37 injured, and thousands displaced. The fires have destroyed hundreds of structures, including houses, factories, and cultural properties, including a centuries-old Buddhist temple, and have led to the evacuation of around 38,000 residents, including in Andong, Uiseong, Sancheong, and Ulsan. Approximately 26,000 people remain displaced.

Firefighters are utilising approximately 120 helicopters to battle the fires across South Korea’s mountainous topography. One pilot crashed while attempting to contain a fire, and four other firefighters died after being trapped by flames. Efforts to combat the fires are being bolstered by the deployment of US Army helicopters to the North and South Gyeongsang regions. Overnight rainfall on 27 and 28 March has provided better visibility and cooler temperatures, enabling improved firefighting conditions, allowing firefighters to extinguish fires in Yeongdeok, Uiseong, Andong, Cheongsong, and Yeongyang. The latest figures show that wildfires in Uiseong and Andong are 98 per cent and 90 per cent extinguished, respectively.

Solace Global Assessment: 

There are currently no reports indicating airport operations have been affected; Incheon International Airport (ICN) and Gimpo International Airport (GMP) are operating as normal. Human activities, including a lighter left on the ground at a funeral, waste burning, and sparks during welding work, are believed to be the root cause of multiple fires. Lee Han-kyung, the disaster and safety division chief, has pointed to climate change for exacerbating the situation.

In South Korea, unusually warm spring temperatures dried out the landscape and, when combined with strong winds, created optimal conditions for fast-moving fires to tear through the region’s dense forests; half the average rainfall has occurred in the affected areas. As the climate crisis worsens, it is driving hotter, drier conditions that cause fires to spread more rapidly and burn with greater intensity. So far this year, South Korea has reported 244 wildfires, 2.4 times more than during the same period last year, according to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. Given the particularly dry weather, further wildfires are likely.

Royalist protesters set fire to the Unified Socialist Party office in Kathmandu, Nepal

On 28 March, royalist protesters entered the headquarters of the Unified Socialist Party in Aloknagar, strewing documents across the streets and setting fire to the office. The act comes amid planned rival republican and royalist protests on the same day. The republican demonstrators are largely affiliated with The Socialist Front, which comprises opposition parties including the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN)-Maoist Centre and CPN-Unified Socialist; the royalist protesters are led by Durga Prasai, a political activist who frequently calls for the overthrow of the current federal democratic government system.

The District Administration Office has attempted to keep the groups separate, designating the Exhibition Road-Bhrikutimandap for republican protesters and Tinkune for royalist protesters. Approximately 3,500 security personnel were deployed in preparation for the demonstrations. These measures almost certainly indicate the high potential for violence between the rival groups.

The burning of the Unified Socialist Party offices significantly increases the likelihood of clashes between royalists and republicans as demonstrations develop throughout the day. If clashes erupt, it is likely that they will continue into the weekend, given the animosity between the rival groups.

Protests against law expanding military control continue in Indonesia

Protests against the introduction of a new law that enables the military to have more control within the Indonesian government have continued to be organised in multiple cities, including Jakarta, Surabaya in East Java, Aceh, and South Kalimantan. Multiple protests, including ones held outside the parliament building in Jakarta, have escalated to violence, with security forces responding with tear gas, water cannons, and other crowd dispersal measures.

In Surabaya, at least 14 journalists were attacked while covering the anti-government protests, resulting in condemnation from international NGOs. As a result of the police’s response and the fears of Indonesia reverting to its authoritarian past, protests are likely to continue throughout the weekend of 29-30 March.

Australia to hold federal elections on 3 May

On 28 March, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the country would hold federal elections on 3 May. The vote will select all 150 members of the House of Representatives and a majority of the 76 Senators. Currently, the Labor Party, which is in government, is polling slightly behind the centre-right Coalition. The primary concern continues to be the cost of living crisis, which, as seen in other Western nations, has gained significant political traction in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. While Australian elections are typically peaceful and well-organised, there remains a potential for civil unrest, particularly in response to major domestic or international political developments.

Militants conduct wave of attacks in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan

Militants belonging to the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have conducted a wave of attacks throughout Balochistan against both Pakistani security services and civilians. On 26 March, Baloch militants reportedly killed five passengers on the N10 highway near Ormara after checking their IDs and targeting those from the Punjab region. On 27 March, an explosion targeting a police van in Quetta killed at least three and injured 21. Earlier, on the same day, another explosion near a police vehicle in Quetta injured four officers.

The attacks likely demonstrate an emboldened BLA since the hijacking of the Jaffar Express on 11 March and indicate that the militant group is likely seeking to exploit a consistently overstretched and underprepared Pakistani military. There are also early indications that the BLA has increased its recruitment of women, which it has used to conduct suicide attacks, a development that will almost certainly increase the BLA’s ability to instil terror and evade security measures.

Taiwanese warship collides with Chinese fishing vessel off central Taiwan

On early 27 March, a Taiwanese Republic of China Navy (ROCN) vessel collided with a Chinese fishing vessel off central Taiwan, with no injuries reported. The naval vessel, a Chung-Ho-class tank landing ship (hull number LST-232), sustained some unspecified damage, which did not compromise its navigational safety, according to the ROCN. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) dispatched two patrol vessels to the scene at the Navy’s request.

The incident has occurred in the context of continued regular military exercises conducted by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and navy (PLAN) that cross the median line in Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). For example, on 26 March, a sortie of 27 PLA aircraft, 6 PLAN vessels and 2 “official ships” were identified by Taiwanese forces. These intrusions occur several times a week. There is a realistic possibility that the vessel collision was the result of aggressive action from either or both the Chinese fishing vessel and the Taiwanese warship.

Chinese fishing vessels, in addition to China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels, are regularly used by Beijing to assert maritime control as part of People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), and are often equipped with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment and other military hardware. While the vessel collision has passed with minimal diplomatic impact or media coverage, almost certainly due to the lack of injuries, it reaffirms the risk of escalation posed by small-scale maritime incidents should casualties result.

Thousands on standby in expectation of more flooding in Malaysia

Over a thousand members of the Johor Civil Defence Force remain on standby due to the ongoing monsoon transition, which has already resulted in widespread flooding in southern Malaysia, the evacuation of thousands, and disruption on the Malaysia-Singapore border. Despite the official end of the northeast monsoon, forecasts indicate that unpredictable weather during the southwest monsoon transition could lead to flash floods, especially in low-lying areas and landslides in the more mountainous areas. Less severe flooding has also been reported in Malaysian Borneo, in both Sabah and Sarawak states.

6.8 earthquake registered off the coast of New Zealand

On 25 March, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck off the coast of New Zealand’s South Island, near Fiordland National Park, at a depth of 33 kilometres. In response, the National Emergency Management Agency issued a tsunami advisory and advised people to avoid beaches due to the risk of strong currents. While no tsunami followed, the depth of the earthquake and historical seismic activity in the region indicate a moderate likelihood of aftershocks, which could persist for several weeks.

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