Alert+
Transport Hubs Closed as Protests and Restrictions Hit Istanbul
Intelligence cut off: 11:00 GMT 19 March 2025
On the morning of 19 March, the Mayor of Istanbul and head of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Ekrem Imamoglu, was arrested on suspicion of being the head of a “criminal organisation” as well as aiding the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
On 18 March, Imamoglu was stripped of his university degree by Istanbul University, over reports of administrative irregularities during his studies. As university degrees are required for presidential candidates in Turkey, Imamoglu who is widely regarded as the most popular opposition candidate for the 2028 elections, has effectively been excluded from running by the university’s decision.
CHP is holding its candidate selection process on 23 March. In addition to Imamoglu, authorities reported that “100” other suspects had been arrested in the operation, including prominent journalist Ismail Saymaz.
Turkish media reported, following the arrest, that authorities have imposed a four-day restriction period on meetings, demonstrations, and press releases in the city. There are confirmed reports that Turkish authorities have imposed widespread internet restrictions, blocking access to platforms including X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok. In central Istanbul, multiple metro stations, including Taksim station, are reported to be closed on orders of the governor.
CHP leaders have organised multiple protests for 14:00 local time, including in Istanbul and Ankara. A gathering of protesters has been recorded at the central Istanbul police station as of the time of writing.
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Turkey Braces for Unrest as Opposition Vows Mass Protests
The arrest of Imamoglu is highly likely to provoke significant unrest, and it is almost certain to be perceived by opposition supporters as a move by the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to consolidate power and neutralise the opposition. Erdogan is constitutionally barred from running for president again, but it is likely that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) will field a constitutional amendment to prolong Erdogan’s presidency.
Protests are highly likely to concentrate in the centres of large cities, especially Istanbul. The CHP call for protests at the local party headquarters will almost certainly mean that these will be hotspots for gatherings of Imamoglu’s supporters. In addition to party offices, local universities are highly likely to be affected by unrest. Istanbul University is generally considered particularly liberal and is especially at risk as its students have in recent years launched several protests against its rectors, who are appointed directly by the president and are perceived to be excessively friendly to the government.
The authorities have closed Taksim Square metro station to limit the size of protests being organised near Taksim Square and are likely to close other stations.
Turkish police are highly likely to respond violently to any large gatherings and will also likely target isolated groups of protesters to prevent the formation of larger crowds. Turkish police employ harsh crowd-control measures including the use of tear gas, water cannons, and pepper spray. Arbitrary detentions of bystanders have been reported. Turkish authorities have previously used increased powers during periods of increased instability to detain foreign nationals who have engaged in or been near major protests.
Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines for Turkey
- Avoid all large gatherings. Limit travel in central Istanbul and Ankara due to the threat of protests. Avoid travelling to the vicinity of university campuses.
- Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
- Monitor the IETT website for live updates on transport in Istanbul.
- Plan for alternative routes and means of transport in Istanbul and Ankara. Allocate additional time for all travel
- If caught in a protest area, try to leave quickly if it is safe to do so.
- If you are in a crowd and unable to leave, take precautions to minimise the risk of crowd crush. These include staying upright, moving away from all hard barriers, going with and not against the crowd, and holding your arms at chest level in a boxer-like stance to relieve pressure.
- Increased security deployments are likely to continue throughout the four-day restrictions period (19-22 March). Disruptions are highly likely to be particularly severe during the weekend.
- Ensure that you always carry personal identification documents or copies.
- Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any losses in electricity.
- Consider options to bypass internet restrictions or mitigate their impacts. This could include downloading useful resources ahead of travel and using a VPN and Tor Browser while in-country.
- Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.
