The recent attacks by the Viv Ansanm gang coalition in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, highly likely demonstrate the vulnerabilities of the Kenya-led multinational police force in terms of manpower and resources.

In Colombia, the ELN’s continued offensive has almost certainly resulted in a collapse of President Petro’s total peace plan, and the government’s response will likely result in increased attacks across Colombia.

The is a realistic possibility that Islamic State-affiliated media calling for attacks on festivals in Germany and the Netherlands will inspire lone-wolf attacks during the carnival season.

The release of a damning report on the eve of the Tempi train crash disaster anniversary has almost certainly intensified anti-government protests in Greece that have resulted in multiple arrests and violent clashes.

The approval of a draft minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine likely increases Trump’s interest in supporting Ukraine but is highly unlikely to satisfy Kyiv’s key objective of security guarantees.

The deployment of IDF tanks to the West Bank is almost certainly indicative of a long-term operation that will likely jeopardise ceasefire negotiations, increase the terror threat in Israel and draw Iranian attention.

Syria’s National Dialogue Conference was highly likely rushed and HTS-dominated. The exclusion of SDF representatives likely increases the risk of a confrontation between Syria’s Kurdish factions and Damascus.

There is a realistic possibility that Israeli operations in southern Syria will further expand by exploiting Druze divisions and dissatisfaction with Syria’s HTS-led authorities.

Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will highly likely cement control over Sudan’s Darfur region after forming a parallel government and losing territory around Khartoum.

Unrest likely following Cyclone Garance’s landfall on the French territory of Réunion.

Pakistani authorities are on high alert after the release of credible intelligence indicating that extremists are likely to kidnap foreign nationals during the ICC Champions Trophy cricket tournament.

On 25 February, gangs reportedly associated with the coalition Viv Ansanm launched an attack in the Delmas 19 and Delmas 30 neighbourhoods of Port-au-Prince, killing at least 15 civilians. Further clashes in the previous days resulted in one policeman of the international Kenya-led mission being killed, as well as two local soldiers. On 27 February, Viv Ansanm members launched a further attack in the Rue Chavannes area of the capital. According to UN sources, more than 6,000 people have been forced to leave the areas of Kenscoff and Delmas in recent days.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The Viv Ansanm coalition of gangs likely remains the strongest criminal group in the capital. While the group’s leaders have at times called for its recognition as a political party, the gang continues to adopt a terror-focused strategy which is likely aimed at ensuring the breakdown of all administrative authority in Haiti, thus forcing civilians to rely on them for support. The recent gains and offensives made by the gangs are likewise highly likely indicative of the continuing difficulties of the international policing mission. The Kenya-led contingent currently has about 1,000 officers, less than half of the 2,500 initially planned. Moreover, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has ruled out the deployment of a military peacekeeping mission to Haiti and has instead proposed increasing the amount of non-lethal UN support to the police force. This is likely a direct rejection of the recent Human Rights Watch report calling for the UN to establish control over the mission.

After initiating an offensive against government forces in January, the National Liberation Army (ELN) is close to securing full control of the Catatumbo region in the department of Norte de Santander on the border with Venezuela. The area is a major cocaine production hub and lies on vital smuggling routes. The ELN’s campaign has resulted in the near-total destruction of its last major rival in the area, the 33^rd Front, a dissident group of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). As part of a wider offensive against both government forces and rival armed groups, the ELN has conducted attacks in other parts of Colombia. In Cúcuta, the capital of the department of Norte de Santander, a 48-hour curfew was imposed on 23 February following a series of violent attacks by the ELN that injured several people.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The scale of violence in Colombia almost certainly represents an end to President Petro’s policy of total peace and the championing of ceasefire agreements. Political rivals have indicated that armed groups have simply exploited the peace talks to regroup, rearm and consolidate power and control over illicit activities. This has placed armed groups like the ELN in a much stronger position to challenge the government’s authority and take on government forces. The scale of violence has almost certainly left the Petro administration with no choice but to confront the ELN and other armed groups with force, with external pressure also likely coming from the Trump administration which has called for an aggressive crackdown on drugs and criminal groups in Latin America.

Currently, the violence is primarily concentrated in the border regions. However, the ELN has a major presence across multiple departments in Colombia and has demonstrated its ability to conduct attacks in major cities like Bogotá, Cali, Medellín and Barranquilla. As the government deploys more troops to counter the ELN in the border regions, the ELN will likely increasingly target Colombian cities. These attacks have traditionally involved IED attacks against Colombian police and military installations, with previous attacks also resulting in high levels of civilian casualties. Furthermore, there is already evidence that other armed groups are exploiting the current destabilisation of Colombia to stage attacks and exert control in other areas, which has prompted a warning from the UN Human Rights Office. On 24 February, a bomb injured 17 people, including several children, in the town of Morales in the Cauca department in Colombia’s southwest. This attack has been attributed to the Central General Staff (EMC) – a splinter group of the FARC that rejected the peace agreement.

As the violence increases, the ELN are likely to impose more “armed strikes” and the government are likely to introduce more curfews. These will almost certainly involve restrictions on movement, disruptions to essential services and shortages in critical goods. ELN armed strikes have traditionally involved strict penalties for anyone not complying with their rules, including executions, which can extend to individuals with non-combatant status including healthcare workers and aid workers. They have also involved attacks on key infrastructure, such as bridges, electricity, and communication networks, designed to hinder the government’s ability to restore order but also result in further disruptions and shortages. In Norte de Santander department alone, it is now estimated that the violence and displacement have left over 122,000 people in critical need of humanitarian aid, with 36 per cent of surveyed shelters reporting no health services available.

New round of 50501 protests to coincide with State of the Union Address in US

50501 (“50 states, 50 protests, one day”) is a decentralised protest movement which originated on the social network Reddit and has received considerable support from mainstream Democrat Party figures. The group staged protests in February and has announced a new round of unrest to occur on 4 March, the day US President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech at a joint session of Congress. Open-source intelligence (OSINT) indicates that multiple protests are organised to occur in the proximity of state capitol buildings in multiple cities. As of the time of writing, protests are scheduled to occur at 43 state capitals. Moreover, further demonstrations are scheduled to occur in Vancouver and other cities in Canada, also on 4 March.

US threatens 25 per cent tariffs on EU imports

US President Donald Trump stated on 26 February that the US is planning to impose cross-sector tariffs of around 25 per cent on EU imports. Trump singled out carmakers as a potential target and remarked that the EU bloc was formed to “screw” the US. Brussels has pledged to impose immediate retaliatory sanctions if Washington proceeds with the threats. According to US media, French President Macron tackled the issue of tariffs during his meeting with Trump on 26 February. Trump’s statement may result in further anti-US demonstrations in EU capitals, with some having already occurred following the US change in its policy towards Ukraine and Russia.

Senior Sinaloa cartel member arrested in Mexico

The Mexican army said it had arrested Jose Angel Canobbio, the head of security for one of the sons of jailed drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, in Culiacan. The arrest is likely an important political victory for the Mexican government, which is almost certainly in the process of taking a harder stance towards the cartels to appease the demands of the US government. During this reporting period, Mexican authorities made further gestures towards Washington, including allowing the extradition of H-2 cartel leader Jesus Ricardo Patron Sanchez to the US. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained a more balanced public rhetoric, stating that she would support a constitutional reform to reinforce Mexico’s sovereignty in response to US drone flights in Mexican airspace, and pledging to scrutinise US weapons manufacturers, due to their firearms reaching Mexican criminal organisations.  

Texas records first US measles death in more than a decade

US health authorities have recorded an outbreak of measles in West Texas, with at least 130 cases reported as of the time of writing. The child, who died on the night between 25 and 26 February, was reportedly not vaccinated against the disease. According to US media sources, the disease outbreak has primarily affected “under-vaccinated” Mennonite communities in the Gaines County area. Measles has a mortality rate of between one and three per 1,000 cases on average according to the US Centres for Diseases Control and Prevention (CDC). Due to the disease’s high transmissibility, further cases are likely to occur.

Blackout in Chile affects 90 per cent of the population

On 25 February, Chile experienced a major blackout that affected over 90 per cent of the population, disrupting critical services, industries, and infrastructure across the country, impacting 14 out of 16 regions. The outage was caused by a malfunction in the protection systems of ISA Interchile, a subsidiary of the Colombian state-owned company ISA. This led to the disconnection of a key high-voltage transmission line, triggering a nationwide power failure. Power was restored to 94 per cent of households by 26 February, however, millions of people still remain without power.

German police have stated that they are on high alert ahead of the annual pre-Lent carnival season, in response to social media content linked to the Islamic State (IS) calling for attacks on revellers. A German-language propaganda site purportedly associated with IS published an image which encouraged supporters to “choose your next target” next to a listing of carnival events in Germany and the Festival of Love event in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. Germany is set to hold major carnival festivals from late February to early March in Cologne, Nuremberg, Düsseldorf, Mainz and multiple other locations across the country. While no specific plot has been identified, German and Dutch police have stated that security will be enhanced and that they are monitoring the situation. Munich has cancelled its carnival after the recent car-ramming attack.

Solace Global Assessment: 

There is a high likelihood that the propaganda image published has no direct association with IS and is instead an attempt by sympathisers or unaffiliated extremists to spread fear and disruption. However, in the aftermath of the German election, which was characterised by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieving its greatest-ever result, strong anti-migrant rhetoric and policies as well as a series of high-profile Islamist-linked attacks, the terrorist threat in Germany is likely significantly higher than usual. Even if the image is not directly linked to IS itself, the effect it may have cannot be discounted given the heightened tensions across the country. The carnival, with its historic links to Catholicism, provocative symbolism, and large, often inebriated and vulnerable crowds, would almost certainly be viewed as a high-profile and coveted target for extremists.

Previous carnivals, such as the 2015 carnival in Braunschweig, Bavaria, have been cancelled due to concrete evidence of a planned terror attack, and previous carnivals in Cologne and Düsseldorf have enhanced security measures in response to credible threats. There is a high likelihood of further material being disseminated online in both public and private channels before the events. As a result, the threat is likely to be taken seriously by the authorities and will almost certainly result in enhanced security measures involving stricter crowd control measures, increased screening, an increased law enforcement presence and potential transport disruptions.

Protests have been organised across Greece on 28 February to mark the two-year anniversary of the Tempi train crash that resulted in the deaths of 57 people and 85 injuries. Almost 400 protests have been organised, with at least 262 planned in Greece and 121 planned internationally. In Athens, the focal point for the protests will be Syntagma Square. Greek transport workers have declared a 24-hour strike, which has already left ships docked, train services suspended, and several flights cancelled. Public services, healthcare facilities, schools, cultural institutions, restaurants, shops, and other businesses will be shut down or run at limited capacity. Security measures have been heightened in Athens, including the deployment of over 6,000 police officers and the use of drones and helicopters to bolster surveillance.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The primary catalyst for the protests has likely been the release of a 180-page report on 27 February, which identified that the Tempi train crash was the result of human error, which routed the train onto the same track as an incoming freight train. Independent investigators also identified that poor training, staff shortages, and infrastructural issues such as a lack of modern safety controls plagued Greece’s railway system. However, the most controversial element has likely been the release of an audio recording, which indicates that 30 of the fatalities survived the original crash but were then killed by either asphyxiation or an explosion caused by chemical solvents illegally transported on the freight train. This has almost certainly eroded trust in the government, with many Greeks expressing the belief that the government has not done anything to achieve justice for the victims. Recent polling even indicates that over 80 per cent of Greeks feel that the Tempi train disaster was one of or the worst issues in Greece, with the vast majority also expressing that they were dissatisfied with the investigations into the incident.

The convergence of the anniversary and the release of the report and the audio recording, combined with wider discontent with the government, will almost certainly energise the current round of protests. Earlier demonstrations culminated in one of the largest protest movements in Greek history, attracting an estimated 2.5 million people in Greece and within the Greek diaspora around the world. Multiple clashes between protestors and the police were observed, particularly in Athens and Thessaloniki, resulting in the use of tear gas and stun grenades to disperse crowds. While this round of protests is unlikely to attract as many participants, the heated nature of the demonstrations will likely result in violent clashes, especially as the protests have been organised on the weekend. On 1 January, Greek police were forced to use tear gas and stun grenades after protestors threw Molotov cocktails and demanded a fresh inquiry into the disaster after the release of the audio recording, demonstrating the potential for the movement to generate violent unrest. If the government fails to conduct a thorough investigation or hold anyone accountable for the disaster, there is a strong likelihood that the protests will escalate, particularly if supported by the country’s powerful trade unions.

Amid ongoing bilateral US-Russia talks which exclude Ukraine, US President Donald Trump stated on 26 February that the US and Ukraine have agreed to a minerals deal. Following two weeks of negotiations, the Ukrainian justice, economy and foreign ministers have reportedly approved a draft agreement. A previous US demand for rights to USD 500 billion of potential revenue has been dropped from the agreement. The draft agreement calls for the establishment of a jointly managed ‘Reconstruction Investment Fund’, with Ukraine contributing 50 per cent of all revenues earned from the future monetisation of all state-owned mineral, oil and gas resources (excluding current sources of revenue). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington late on 27 February, scheduled to meet Trump on 28 February and sign the deal.

Ahead of the meeting, Trump appeared to backtrack on previous comments calling Zelensky a “dictator”, responding to a journalist by saying, “did I say that? I can’t believe I said that”. Trump also suggested that the US would endeavour to reclaim for Ukraine many of the “sea areas” occupied by Russia in negotiations, almost certainly in reference to the occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Donetsk Oblast, including Mariupol and Berdiansk.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The deal will need to be approved by Ukraine’s parliament (Verkhovna Rada), with opposition MPs having already indicated substantial concerns. However, it is likely that if Zelensky’s government continues to support the deal, the Verkhovna Rada will approve it given both the majority held by Zelensky’s Servant of the People party and the pressing need to appease Trump.

The Trump administration almost certainly has two key strategic objectives in mind with the deal. Firstly, Trump has repeatedly condemned the expenditure of US support to Ukraine and wishes to recoup the losses and gain transactional benefits for the US economy. Secondly, Trump wishes to challenge China’s dominance of the global supply and processing of rare earth elements (70 and 90 per cent, respectively), which are essential components in many modern technologies. The actual quantity of efficiently accessible rare earth elements in Ukraine is, however, highly contested. Much of Ukraine’s mineral resources are also currently in Russian-occupied territory. The draft agreement refers to projects in areas “temporarily occupied by [Russia], in the event such areas are de-occupied.” There is a realistic possibility that this has conditioned Trump’s comments regarding the possibility of reclaiming some of these areas for Ukraine through negotiations, though it is highly likely that the Kremlin would never agree to give up currently occupied territory.

The deal notably only contains one phrase referencing security guarantees, saying the “US will support Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees”. Trump’s suggestion that US access to the minerals would be “automatic security” for Ukraine is highly unlikely to satisfy Kyiv’s key strategic objective of security guarantees that can deter future Russian aggression. Zelensky likely calculates, however, that by giving Trump economic interests in Ukraine, the White House will be more amenable to Kyiv’s strategic goals.

On 23 February, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deployed armoured units, including main battle tanks, to the West Bank, marking the first time it has deployed tanks to the area in over 20 years. Tanks and armoured personnel carriers were first deployed to the Jenin refugee camp in the north of the West Bank and have since been deployed to other Palestinian refugee camps. It is estimated that 40,000 Palestinians have been displaced from the refugee camps in Jenin, Tulkarem, Nur Shams and Farea, which are now reportedly “empty of residents”. There are also reports that the IDF is destroying roads, imposing curfews, blocking access points to towns, arresting people and commandeering properties for military use. Israel’s Defence Minister has stated that the IDF will remain there for the coming year to degrade Iranian-backed groups, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). PIJ have claimed that the Israeli incursions are part of a broader effort to annex parts of the West Bank.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The IDF regularly raids the West Bank to kill or capture militants but normally withdraws its forces almost immediately. The use of tanks and other armoured vehicles likely signals a shift in strategy characterised by longer IDF deployments to suppress Palestinian militancy. Israel has likely partially justified its expanded operations in the West Bank after a failed terror attack on the Tel Aviv bus network. The attack was quickly attributed to militants in the West Bank by Israeli intelligence. Moreover, Iran is reportedly attempting to establish a separate front against Israel by funnelling weapons into the West Bank through its remaining supply lines. The recent escalation likely suggests that Israel is not only targeting immediate militant threats but also aiming to disrupt long-term efforts by Iran to establish a credible military threat in the West Bank.

However, Israel’s operations in the West Bank are likely to have several negative ramifications. A prolonged IDF presence and the displacement of Palestinians will almost certainly be interpreted as shaping activity for the annexation of parts of the West Bank and increased Israeli settlements. Discussions are ongoing regarding the approval of nearly 1,200 new settlement units, some of which are planned for construction deep within the West Bank. These developments are likely to provoke more settler violence, especially when emboldened by an increased IDF presence. Operations in the West Bank are also likely to fuel further militancy, which is likely to increase the threat of terror attacks within Israel, with a likely terrorist attack already occurring in Haifa on 27 February. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Hamas are also likely to be jeopardised, with Palestinians viewing Israeli operations in the West Bank as part of a broader effort against Palestinian resistance. Long-term, this may risk bringing Iran and its proxies more into the fight and Israeli attempts to annex the West Bank will likely energise pro-Palestinian protest movements around the globe. 

On 25 February, hundreds of participants (with thousands attending remotely) took part in a two-day National Dialogue Conference held in Damascus. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led interim government advertised the conference as being an initial step towards the drafting of a new Syrian constitution, intended to hear the views of representatives from Syria’s highly diverse communities. At the end of the conference, a final statement made non-binding recommendations including Syrian territorial unity and sovereignty, the acceleration of government formation, the preservation and respect for minority rights, and immediate Israeli withdrawal from southern Syria.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Syria, currently led by interim president and HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, is set to have a new transitional government formed on 1 March. There are several key issues facing the new HTS-led authorities in Damascus, including the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which control northeast Syria and are actively engaged in conflict with Turkish-led forces, continuing resistance from Assad regime remnants and the status of the Alawite minority group, and the Israeli incursion in the south with recently intensified aerial strikes.

The conference was a key opportunity to engage with these issues. The conference, however, was highly likely rushed, HTS-dominated and lacking in transparency. Many attendees were reportedly invited only one to two days earlier, with some only seven hours earlier. Of the seven-member preparatory committee, five were HTS members or HTS-aligned, with no Druze or Alawite members. Only a low number of Alawis ultimately attended the conference. Crucially, no members of the SDF or the Kurdish-led autonomous administration were invited, which was justified by organisers as being due to the exclusion of armed groups. Following the fall of the Assad regime, HTS made overtures to Kurdish groups, differentiating themselves from the Turkey-led Syrian National Army (SNA) rebel group, who continue to launch operations against the SDF with conventional Turkish air support.

However, the proposed state monopoly on arms likely poses a perceived existential threat to the continued existence of autonomous Kurdish-controlled Syria, called Rojava (Western Kurdistan), in the face of Turkish-led aggression. There is a realistic possibility that if Kurdish authorities continue to be excluded and attempts are made to forcibly disarm the SDF and the People’s Defence Forces (HPG), Kurdish groups will attempt secession, which would almost certainly lead to an escalation in conflict.

On 23 February, the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, demanded the complete demilitarisation of southern Syria in the provinces of Quneitra, Deraa and Suweida “from the forces of the new regime”, further adding that no threat would be tolerated “to the Druze community in southern Syria”. This was followed by a series of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on 25 February, reportedly targeting former Syrian Arab Army (SAA) division bases close to Damascus and in Daraa Province. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that the strikes were conducted “as part of the new policy we have defined as pacifying southern Syria”. Katz added that any attempts by Syrian forces to “establish themselves in the security zone in southern Syria will be met with fire”. As a result of the developments, relatively small anti-Israel protests took place in Damascus, Aleppo, Quneitra and Daraa provinces.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Following the rapid Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led advance that toppled the Assad regime in December 2024, the IDF launched an incursion into the UN-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria. The IDF also conducted a significant series of aerial strikes targeting Syrian Arab Army (SAA) assets, which destroyed the majority of Syria’s sophisticated weaponry. The decades-long ceasefire between Syria and Israel is partly predicated on the buffer zone established by a 1974 UN Security Council resolution. The incursion is likely intended by Israeli authorities as strategic messaging to the new HTS-controlled Syrian government, described by one analyst as “don’t mess with us”. The move has been criticised, however, as a provocation that will generate further insecurity on Israel’s borders.

Since their ascent to power, HTS spokesmen, as well as interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa have made a distinct effort to evade questions about Israel. This week’s National Dialogue Conference did, however, conclude with demands for an immediate Israeli withdrawal from southern Syria. Al-Sharaa almost certainly wishes to present the new Syrian authorities as peaceful and does not wish to antagonise the US Donald Trump administration. However, domestic pressures demanding a greater level of resistance against Israel will highly likely increase, with anti-Israel protests likely to grow.

Additionally, Israeli leaders are almost certainly instrumentalising southern Syria’s Druze population to justify the incursion. Israel has the world’s third-largest Druze population, and in the past week launched a pilot program allowing Syrian Druze to work in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. There are likely growing divisions between Syrian Druze leaders. The spiritual leader of Syria’s Druze community, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri, expressed dissatisfaction with the National Dialogue Conference. On 23 February, a group of formerly pro-Assad Druze fighters formed the Suwayda Military Council, with the stated goal of uniting Druze militias and integrating into the new national army of the Syrian state. Al-Hajri, however, has denounced the group and called them “separatists”. There is a realistic possibility that Israel will exploit these divisions and Druze dissatisfaction with HTS governance to extend their control in southern Syria, under the stated purpose of protecting Syrian Druze.

23 February, the RSF signed a charter in Nairobi with allied groups to form a parallel government. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) broke the El-Obeid siege imposed by the RSF on 23 February, which had been ongoing since April 2023. Sudanese Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim has declared that the lifting of the siege would allow the delivery of humanitarian aid to Kordofan. In Central Sudan, the SAF made significant gains in the capital, Khartoum, pushing RSF forces out of Khartoum, Khartoum Bahri, and Omdurman.  On 24 February, the RSF announced a new assault on El-Fasher, the provincial capital of North Darfur, which has been under siege since April 2023. Intense fighting around the city has impacted the Zamzam camp, which houses approximately 500,000 displaced people, making it too dangerous for Médecins Sans Frontières / Doctors Without Borders (MSF) to operate.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The recent SAF gains constitute a strategic shift in the conflict, with the SAF steadily asserting control over the capital city. There is a realistic possibility that this latest offensive will lead to the SAF retaking the entirety of Khartoum for the first time since the conflict began. Breaking the siege at El-Obeid constitutes another significant victory for the SAF since it connects RSF-controlled western and southern regions of Sudan to Khartoum. The SAF will almost certainly use the strategic city as a launchpad into the RSF-controlled western regions, primarily in Darfur. The two-year siege led to significant shortages of food, water, and medical supplies for the city’s population. Lifting the siege will enable the SAF and humanitarian groups to provide much-needed relief to the population.

The RSF’s formation of a parallel government was highly likely spurred by their territorial losses in Khartoum and the weakening of their position at El-Obeid. Rumoured internal divisions within the paramilitary group have reportedly led to several high-level RSF commanders defecting to the SAF, which have likely contributed to the group’s recent territorial losses. The signing of the charter indicates that the RSF are choosing to entrench their rule over regions under their control to maintain their legitimacy amid territorial losses. By presenting themselves as a governing body, the RSF are legitimising their territorial control in a way that they are unable to do militarily by defeating the SAF.  

To further legitimise its control of Darfur, the RSF will almost certainly make the seizure of El-Fasher its primary military objective, as the largest city in North Darfur and a key transport hub that will help it consolidate power over the region.

On 28 February, Tropical Cyclone Garance made landfall near Saint-Andre on the French territory of Réunion. The cyclone, which has maximum wind speeds of approximately 155 km/h, has caused significant disruptions, with approximately 30 per cent of the population, or 145,000 people, experiencing power outages and 82,000 lacking access to drinking water. The highest level, Purple Alert, was issued just before landfall. After landfall, the alert was downgraded to Red, and a videoconference by the Prefecture of Réunion is scheduled to provide updates. Over 100 people are currently in evacuation centres, and 137 emergency accommodation centres have been established. In Mauritius, on the outskirts of the cyclone’s path, authorities have warned of potential storm surges and flooding, urging citizens to avoid beaches. The island’s airport remains closed due to the cyclone warning.

Solace Global Assessment: 

In the aftermath of the cyclone, it is likely that significant unrest will occur. In Mayotte, a French overseas territory to the West of Madagascar, damage caused by Cyclone Chido in December 2024, which left many residents without basic necessities, triggered protests over the perceived inadequate and delayed response from the French government. While Réunion is a wealthier island and has stronger infrastructure and emergency response capabilities, it is directly in the path of the cyclone. Furthermore, the island is a popular holiday destination for French citizens and will likely receive significant media coverage; France24 has an article covering the cyclone as the top news story of 28 February.

Réunion has a history of demonstrations voicing frustrations against the French government. In November 2018, widespread violent demonstrations occurred over the cost of living as part of the “Yellow Vest” movement in France. More recently, in September 2024, protests and strikes occurred over the high cost of living. With the recent unrest in Mayotte and history of unrest in Réunion in mind, the French government will likely make a show of reacting quickly to the anticipated devastation on the island.

German elections end in Christian Democratic victory, far-right gets best ever result

The German parliamentary elections saw the Christian Democrats union parties (CDU/CSU) secure 28.5 per cent of the vote, while the incumbent Social Democrats (SPD) fell to 16.4 per cent. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won across eastern Germany and obtained 20.8 per cent of the total vote, becoming the second force in parliament. Minor parties, like the liberal FDP and the populist-left BSW, narrowly failed to enter parliament. The far-left Die Linke unexpectedly won 8.8 per cent of the vote, likely thanks to a surge in youth support. The election results are positive for the CDU/CSU, which will almost certainly form a coalition government with a weakened SPD. The AfD, while unlikely to enter government, will likely seek to attack the CDU/CSU from the right and will seek to continue its rise as the main anti-establishment force in German politics.

Austrian coalition talks reach a deal

The talks between the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the liberal Neos party reached a positive conclusion, Austrian media reported on 27 February. The talks were the third attempt at forming a workable coalition government following the legislative elections in September 2024. Despite the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) winning the most seats, the ÖVP was tasked with leading the first round of talks, which involved both SPÖ and Neos. The first attempt by the three parties to form a coalition failed because of unresolvable disagreements. While the new talks involved the same three parties, their success was likely ensured by the risk of provoking new elections, where the FPÖ would have almost certainly increased its vote share. As part of the deal, the ÖVP is set to get the chancellorship, which will go to Christian Stocker, and the SPÖ’s Andreas Babler will be appointed vice-chancellor. To be finalised, the deal will need the approval of the Neos party, whose members are set to vote on it on 1 March.

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu arrested in large-scale operation

Georgescu was briefly detained by authorities on 26 February. Prosecutors stated they launched an investigation into Georgescu over a series of accusations, including campaign funding fraud, hate speech, and anti-constitutional acts. In addition to detaining Georgescu, Romanian security forces raided 47 properties used by the candidate’s associates, including a former French Foreign Legion member who owns the security firm providing security to Georgescu. Here, authorities reportedly found hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, as well as a cache of heavy weapons, including grenade launchers. Some small-scale protests by Georgescu supporters were recorded after the arrest, and there is a realistic possibility of more intense unrest during the weekend.

Bosnian court sentences separatist Bosnian Serb President Dodik to one year in prison

A Bosnian court has sentenced the pro-Russia Bosnian Serb president, Milorad Dodik to one year in prison and has banned him from politics for six years for defying the top international envoy overseeing Bosnia’s peace. President Dodik has been accused of separatist actions, including an attempt to force the secession of the Republika Srpska, the Serb-run half of Bosnia, and unite it with Serbia. Dodik, who is backed by Russia, Serbia and Hungary may avoid prison by fleeing the country. However, the ruling will almost certainly aggravate ethnic tensions, potentially inciting unrest in the Republika Srpska and could potentially provoke inter-ethnic clashes. The ruling will also have geopolitical tensions, with Serbian President Vuciv calling an emergency session on 26 February.  

Anti-Eurozone protests erupt in Bulgarian capital

Since 22 February, protests have been organised by supporters of Bulgaria’s far-right Vazrazhdane party in response to the country’s plans to join the eurozone. On 26 February, protestors gathered in front of the Bulgarian parliament in Sofia to voice their opposition. Previous protests have resulted in altercations with the police and multiple injuries and arrests. On 22 February, thousands of protestors demanded the government scrap the plan to join the euro, and some threw Molotov cocktails at the local office of the European Commission.

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader calls on the movement to disarm

On 27 February, Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the PKK who has been imprisoned on Turkey’s Imrali island since 1999, issued an appeal to the group to disarm and transition to a democratic process to resolve the long-standing conflict in Turkey’s southeast. The appeal was read by members of the Kurdish-majority Dem party. The appeal is almost certainly a response to the recent overture made by Turkish government allies, who noted that clear steps towards ending the conflict could be supported by Ankara. While certainly historic, it is likely still too soon to assess whether the announcement will result in lower tensions in Turkish Kurdistan. Sections of the PKK still distrust Ankara, and there is a realistic possibility that they will split from the position of their jailed leader. Moreover, it is also unclear if Ocalan’s appeal will impact PKK affiliates in Syria. So far, the Syrian wing of PKK, PYD, stated they agree with the statement in principle but have not yet committed to a shift in their posture.

Ugandan opposition figure charged with treason

On 21 February, opposition politician Kizza Beslgye was charged with treason. The court rejected pleas from Beslgye’s lawyer that he be transferred to a hospital following his attempted hunger strike. The court ruling comes after Beslgye’s case was moved to a civilian court after Uganda’s Supreme Court barred the government from trying civilians in military courts. Despite the change of court, Beslgye was kept in military detention, triggering his hunger strike. In the aftermath of the verdict, minor protests broke out demanding the release of Beslgye. A video went viral on X depicting large protests marked with the description “Yoweri Museveni is playing with fire. Dr. Kizza Besigye’s detention will trigger a revolution in Uganda. It is getting started!” While the video itself actually depicted a protest from 2023, its virality may spur further solidarity protests against Museveni’s repressive leadership.

Islamist lone wolf attack in Mulhouse, France, highlights Paris-Algiers rift

On 22 February, an Algerian citizen carried out a knife attack in the town centre of Mulhouse, killing one civilian and wounding five police officers. The attacker reportedly suffered from mental health issues and had espoused extremist Islamist ideology. French channels noted that the attacker had been under an obligation to leave French territory, but that Algerian authorities had refused multiple French attempts to repatriate him. Senior French politicians, including Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, have called for the establishment of Europe-wide sanctions on Algeria and other countries that refuse to cooperate with the repatriation of non-EU nationals. A month ago, another high-profile diplomatic spat between Paris and Algiers occurred when the latter rejected the repatriation of an Algerian national who had called for targeted violence against a France-based anti-government activist.

Two arrested in France over firebombing of Russian consulate

On 24 February, two individuals allegedly threw multiple Molotov cocktails at the Russian consulate building in Marseilles. The attack, which occurred during the day, only caused limited material damages and did not result in any injuries. It is almost certain that the attack is linked to anti-Russian sentiment driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine as it occurred on the three year anniversary of the invasion and on the eve of French President Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House.

US considers shutting down base in Alexandroupolis, Greece

The facility is an important logistical hub for US-NATO operations in southeastern Europe, and for the delivery of supplies to Ukraine. While technically not a US “base”, it is a Greek facility that the US military can access under the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement. There is a realistic possibility that the cessation of US usage of the facility is a diplomatic gesture towards Moscow and Ankara, the latter having repeatedly called for its closure. Moreover, the move likely reflects Washington’s drive to reduce commitments in Europe to instead prioritise the Pacific theatre.

Islamic State (IS) supporter arrested over attack plan in Turkey

Turkish authorities have arrested an Uzbek citizen who had allegedly been planning attacks at a synagogue and Jewish schools in the city of Istanbul. IS-linked or -inspired attackers have previously targeted non-Muslim places of worship in Istanbul. Most notably, in January 2024 two gunmen attacked a Catholic church in the city and killed one worshipper. IS later claimed responsibility for the attack. Authorities have stated that the Uzbek suspect had received “orders” to carry out the attack and that they identified him by infiltrating online channels where other IS supporters used “coded” language and “encryption” to carry out attack planning. This level of sophistication is indicative of IS’ renewed efforts to carry out attacks in third countries outside of its primary areas of operations. Turkey likely remains a desirable target for IS due to its participation in counterterrorism operations, its NATO membership, its relations with Israel, and its geographical proximity to the “core” IS territories of Syria and Iraq.

France withdraws from last remaining base in Ivory Coast

France has officially handed over control of its last military base in the Ivory Coast, although a small contingent of 80 troops will remain in the country in an advisory capacity, indicating that the two countries will still maintain a military relationship. The Port-Bouet base was under France’s control for almost 50 years and housed the largest remaining contingent of French forces in the region since its forced withdrawal from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger. France’s withdrawal and the loss of key military capabilities will likely place extra pressure on Ivorian forces to arrest the spread of militantism from the neighbouring Sahel region. Extremist groups have sought to expand into and destabilise coastal West African countries, including in the Ivory Coast’s more restless northern regions.

Puntland forces continue anti-IS advances in Cal Miskaad region of Somalia

The breakaway territory’s forces continued their advances in the highly mountainous region which serves as the stronghold of the Islamic State Somalia Province (ISS), taking on 23 February the village of Shebaab, and entering Dhasaan two days later. US and UAE airstrikes have continued, likely preventing ISS forces from reorganising. Pictures from the newly captured villages show how ISS forces had been constructing infrastructure, including water wells and bakeries, indicating the group’s efforts to establish parallel governance structures and win “hearts and minds”. Puntland advances are now likely to continue towards the next ISS stronghold of Wangable.

Explosions in Bukavu, South Kivu in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

At least 11 were killed and 60 injured in an explosion in Bukavu on 27 February. The blast happened during an AFC/M23 rally in Independence Square, where a large crowd was gathered. In the panic immediately following the blast, shooting reportedly started. President Felix Tshisekedi blamed ‘a foreign army illegally present on Congolese soil’, almost certainly alluding to AFC/M23 and Rwanda. AFC/M23 have rejected responsibility, instead accusing Kinshasa of being behind the attack, claiming the grenades used were the same type used by Burundian forces. Two people have been arrested. While the origin of the blast is unconfirmed, there is a realistic possibility that it was perpetrated by AFC/M23, who will likely use it as an example of government atrocities against the DRC’s population to be used as a pretext for advancing into Uvira, near the Burundian border. Before the blast, Corneille Nangaa Yubeluo, leader of the AFC alliance, vowed, “I promise you that in two days, we will be at Uvira to restore security.” Burundian military forces have deployed along the N5 Highway leading from Bukavu to Uvira in anticipation of the group’s advance.

At least 50 deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo due to unidentified illness

At least 415 cases of a yet-unidentified illness have been recorded in the northwestern DRC since it was first recorded in three children on 21 January. According to medical reports, the illness’ symptoms include fever, vomiting, and internal bleeding, and the interval between their onset and death is around 48 hours. The symptoms resemble those of haemorrhagic fevers caused by viruses such as dengue, Ebola, yellow fever, and Marburg. However, tests have so far shown that the illness is not caused by these. Some of the samples tested did, however, return a positive result for malaria.

Widespread power cuts in South Africa

On 22 February, South Africa’s national energy operator Eskom implemented large scale power cuts, amounting to approximately 3,000 megawatts, following failures at the Majuba and Camden power stations. Saturday’s Stage 3 power cuts were subsequently raised to the highest level, Stage 6, as Eskom reported that 6,000 megawatts would be taken offline. It is the first time Stage 6 is reached since February 2024. Eskom’s progress over the past 12 months has been driven by significant repairs being carried out at the country’s coal-fired power plants, which supply most of South Africa’s electricity. However, the recent failures likely demonstrate ongoing issues, including obsolescent infrastructure and lack of funding. Power cuts in South Africa often lead to civil unrest and increased crime rates. While no large-scale protests have been recorded as of the time of writing, there is a realistic possibility of unrest being triggered if large-scale load shedding continues.

Authorities in Pakistan are on high alert after obtaining credible evidence that violent extremist organisations (VEOs) have plans to target the 2025 International Cricket Council (ICC) Champions Trophy. Pakistan’s intelligence bureau has issued a high alert, which has warned security forces about a possible plot to target foreigners at the ICC event, which will be held in Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi. The alert specifically names the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and Balochistan-based outfits such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). The threat reportedly includes the kidnapping of foreign visitors for ransom. In response, Pakistan’s security forces have increased protection for teams and players.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Pakistan’s hosting of its first major international cricket tournament since the 2009 terror attack on the Sri Lankan national team almost certainly remains a highly coveted target for VEOs attempting to undermine the central government. Direct attacks on stadiums or other high-profile targets like international hotels or training grounds cannot be discounted, especially as VEOs have consistently demonstrated their ability to attack targets outside of their usual area of operations.

However, the latest intelligence alert may indicate that VEOs are not seeking to directly attack the tournament as a result of the government’s increased security posture. Alternatively, VEOs may be seeking to target softer targets, such as kidnapping foreign nationals in less secure and monitored parts of the host cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi. This could include the kidnapping of foreign nationals in less secure accommodations or entertainment venues like restaurants in less central parts of the cities with a decreased police presence and a reduction in CCTV coverage.  

Anti-Hasina student group forms political party in Bangladesh

Leaders of the student group Students Against Discrimination (SAD), which was crucial in leading the protests that led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, announced on 23 February that they would transition the group into a political party. The announcement follows clashes last week where SAD members were injured by students from the youth wings of other opposition parties, including the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). On 25 February, local media reported that the house of one of SAD’s secretaries in Kumarkhali was attacked and vandalised by a large crowd, likely consisting of JI members. The case continues to highlight how, with Hasina and the previously hegemonic Awami League (AL) removed from power, opposition groups continue to clash to fill the political vacuum. The creation of a SAD party is likely to destabilise the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, as the new political entity is likely to call for elections earlier than the stated date of “early 2026” in order to capitalise on its momentum.

Crypto exchange hack labelled the largest ever theft attributed to North Korea

The FBI have stated that North Korean hackers are responsible for the theft of approximately USD 1.5 billion of cryptocurrency from the Dubai-based ByBit crypto exchange company. The heist has been described as the world’s largest ever theft. The operation was likely conducted by the Lazarus Group, a hacker group that is almost certainly run by the North Korean state. The Lazarus Group are thought to be responsible for the high-profile hacking of Sony Pictures Entertainment in 2014. As a heavily sanctioned rogue state, North Korea has invested considerable resources into illicit means of acquiring capital, largely to fund its military and nuclear program. The Lazarus Group has highly likely proven itself to be the most effective of these endeavours. Previously, targets have included banks such as the Bangladesh Bank in 2016. Cryptocurrency exchanges now, however, are likely the most desirable target, due to perceived vulnerabilities in the rapidly expanding sector and the lack of traceability in cryptocurrency.

Explosion at seminary in Akora Khatak, Pakistan

On 28 February, an explosion caused by a suspected suicide bombing occurred at the Darul Uloom Haqqania seminary. The blast reportedly occurred in the front row during Friday prayers. At least four people were killed and 12 seriously injured. Hamid Ul Haq Haqqan, head of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami with connections to the Taliban, was killed in the blast. Given that the blast occurred in the front row, it is highly likely that he was the target. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Police have cordoned off the surrounding area while they investigate the blast.

China conducts live-fire exercises in Gulf of Tonkin

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) began live-fire military exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin on 26 February, following Vietnam’s announcement on 23 February of a new map defining its territorial waters and exclusive economic zones in the region. The Chinese drills focused on the Beibu Gulf area closer to China’s side and are almost certainly part of an aggressive policy to assert its territorial claims in the disputed waters. China will likely adopt this practice in other disputed waters. The drills have previously not been declared in advance and have resulted in flight diversions at short notice.

Taiwanese authorities detain vessel over suspected undersea cable sabotage

On 25 February, an undersea cable connecting Taiwan and Penghu, an island in the Taiwan Strait, was severed. Taiwanese authorities subsequently detained the crew of a Togolese-flagged cargo vessel manned by Chinese personnel which was suspected of having intentionally damaged the cable. The damage to the cable did not result in major disruptions as communications between Taiwan and Penghu were rerouted using alternative infrastructure. If proven to be intentional, the case would further highlight the growing threat of highly deniable underwater sabotage conducted by authoritarian states like China and Russia. China is likely severing Taiwanese underwater cables in order to incur costs on Taiwan, assert dominance, assess international reactions, and to ascertain Taiwanese response times, which could provide vital intelligence in the case of a future war.

Southern Thai insurgents attempt to undermine former prime minister’s visit

On 22 February, a bomb exploded in front of a convenience store in Bannang Sata, Yala Province, injuring over ten people, including seven police officers and four civilians. The bomb detonated while security forces were patrolling the area. Then, on 23 February, a car bomb detonated at Narathiwat airport in Narathiwat Province, another one of Thailand’s restless southern provinces. The airport explosion occurred just before the plane carrying former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was set to arrive at the airport. Authorities have suggested that both bombs were planted by Islamist separatists and were designed to undermine Shinawatra’s first trip to the southern provinces in 20 years, while his daughter Paetongtarn, the current prime minister of Thailand, attempts to achieve long-lasting peace in the region.

Dozens of people killed by heavy flooding in Afghanistan

Save the Children reported on 27 February that at least 29 people, including four children, had been killed by floods following heavy rain in the provinces of Kandahar, Farah, and Kunar. In the former two provinces, the flood also caused significant infrastructural damage, destroying dozens of houses and displacing hundreds. In Afghanistan, significant deforestation, obsolescent infrastructure, and the severe damages sustained in decades of war make flash floods particularly damaging. Taliban officials have avoided commenting on the floods, and it is highly likely that Kabul lacks the means to provide significant relief to the affected areas.

Strong earthquake in Kathmandu, Nepal

On 28 February, the Bhairab Kunda in the Sindhupalchok District of Kathmandu was hit by a magnitude 6.1 earthquake, according to Nepal’s National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre. The epicentre was close to the Himalayan Mountain range bordering Tibet. Other meteorological readings, including from the German Research Center for Geosciences and the U.S. Geological Survey place the earthquake at a magnitude 5.6 and 5.5, respectively. There have been no reports of damage or casualties. However, aftershocks are highly likely in the coming days and weeks.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred due to make landfall in Australia

Severe Tropical Cyclone Alfred has intensified into a category 3 storm off the coast of Queensland, Australia, as it continues its southward trajectory towards land. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that Cyclone Alfred is strengthening over the Coral Sea, but its path remains highly uncertain. The cyclone, which initially formed on 23 February, is currently located off the coast and may move closer to Queensland by 2 March. Authorities are monitoring the situation closely as the storm progresses.

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