The earthquake is one of the deadliest China has experienced in recent years. On 23 January 2024, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck Xinjiang, China. The death count was significantly lower, however, with only three deaths. In 2008, a large earthquake in Sichuan province killed nearly 70,000 people.

Southwestern regions of China are frequently affected by earthquakes. This is largely due to the region lying at the convergence zone of the Indian Plate and Eurasian Plate, which periodically releases tectonic stress as earthquakes. Furthermore, the region has numerous active fault systems including the Longmenshan Fault Zone, which triggered the 2008 earthquake, and the Xianshuihe Fault Zone.

The Lhasa block, also known as the Lhasa terrane, is a significant geological region in southern Tibet, situated between the Bangong-Nujiang suture zone to the north and the Indus–Yarlung Zangbo suture zone to the south. This positioning generates north-south compression, resulting in crustal shortening and uplift, as well as west-east stress, which drives lateral crustal movements. These geological processes play a crucial role in the formation of the Himalayas and significantly impact regional fault systems and seismic activity.

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

While the United States Geological Survey measured the earthquake’s magnitude as 7.1, the China Earthquake Networks Center recorded a magnitude of 6.8. Differences in earthquake readings is relatively common due to the utilisation of different magnitude scales, algorithms, frequency sensitivity, distance from the epicentre, and the complexity of the fault movement.

Several aftershocks have already been felt in Tibet and Nepal; further aftershocks are highly likely in the coming days. While the aftershocks are unlikely to reach a similar magnitude to the initial earthquake, further aftershocks of approximately 5.0 magnitude may still occur. This could further damage structures that have already been weakened by the initial tremor and hinder relief efforts.

Power and water have been significantly disrupted in the region, which could further exacerbate humanitarian issues as residents cope with the aftermath. More deaths will almost certainly be confirmed as authorities verify fatalities amidst ongoing rescue efforts.

Shigatse, the closest city to the epicentre, is regarded as one of Tibet’s holiest cities and contains the Tashilhunpo Monestary which houses the seat of the Panchen Lama, a central figure in Tibetan Buddhism, second only to the Dalai Lama. It is an important pilgrimage site for Tibetan Buddhists. Furthermore, because of its proximity to the Nepalese border, it is an important trade hub. The earthquake will almost certainly disrupt trade through the region as recovery efforts continue.

The area is also a notable tourist site. Since Tingri county is located at the foot of Mount Everest, tourists often base themselves in the region. Mount Everest sightseeing tours have been cancelled in the aftermath. However, no significant damages were recorded at Mount Everest base camp.

The government’s response to the earthquake is likely to be viewed through the lens of historical Tibetan grievances. Given the mountainous topography of the region and potential aftershocks, relief efforts will likely be hampered, potentially opening the government up for criticism regarding its effectiveness at governing in the region. In the aftermath of the earthquake, there is a realistic possibility that those sympathetic to Tibetan independence will scrutinise the government response and call for self-determination.