Unrest in Martinique continues as French authorities have extended a curfew in five municipalities until 4 November, due to ongoing protests against the high cost of living. The curfew order will now only apply to the municipalities of Case-Pilote, Fort-de-France, Lamentin, Saint-Joseph and Schoelcher, from 00:00-05:00.

Disturbances during the past week have included the attempted erection of barricades in Fort-de-France, the blocking of roads with bonfires in Le Francois and Le Vauclin, and vehicles being set ablaze in Bellefontaine and Fond Lahaye. During the night of 25-26 October, at least one person was killed in La Trinite and four others were injured in multiple incidents of shootings across Martinique, and attacks against police and firefighters using Molotov cocktails and projectiles have continued.

The protests have also led to significant disruptions, such as the suspension of refuse collection in central Martinique and the closure of schools.

One of the main protest organisers, The Rally for the Protection of Afro-Caribbean Peoples and Resources (RPPRAC), released a statement on 27 October denouncing the violence, calling instead for peaceful marches and blockades.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Overall, the past week of disorder has highly likely been less intense than in weeks prior. The unrest that started in September was triggered by demands for price parity for basic goods with mainland France, with food prices, for example, being 40 per cent higher in Martinique.

The relative decline in the intensity of violent unrest likely suggests that efforts by authorities to quell the protests, including the curfews, are having an effect, in addition to the ameliorating impact of a deal signed on 16 October that promised to lower the cost of some food items by an average of 20 per cent.

Due to the extent of the commercial and tourism disruption, the President of the Executive Council of Martinique Serge Letchimy stated on 25 October that he had asked France’s Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, for emergency funding relief of EUR 100 million to support “disaster-stricken businesses” in Martinique. The French government, however, announced on 28 October an additional EUR 5.2 billion in national spending cuts, and French austerity will likely be a limiting factor in the level of financial aid available to the Department of Martinique.

Despite the public efforts of RPPRAC to restrain the violence of the protests in Martinique, it is unlikely that the organisation has strong enough influence over the violent fringes of the protest movement. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the unrest will reach the same scale and intensity as the May 2024 New Caledonia unrest, which precipitated the mass evacuation of foreign nationals. 

On 27 October, former Bolivian President Evo Morales’ car was fired upon by unidentified men while travelling in the Chapare region, a traditional stronghold for Morales’ supporters. Morales, who shared a video of the incident, has claimed that the attack was an assassination attempt orchestrated by the government of President Luis Arce Catacora.

The government has in turn claimed that the assassination attempt was staged by Morales to gain political traction before the next Bolivian presidential elections scheduled for August 2025.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Bolivia has been gripped by severe civil unrest since early October after prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for Morales accusing him of statutory rape and human trafficking. The allegations from both sides of the political divide have almost certainly significantly heightened political tensions in the country, with Morales supporters threatening to paralyse the country.

Roadblocks erected on major roads for over two weeks have disrupted the delivery of essential supplies like food and fuel across the country. Protests in cities like La Paz, Sucre, Santa Cruz and several smaller settlements have involved violent clashes with the police, resulting in multiple injuries and the deployment of tear gas.

President Arce has accused Morales of destabilising Bolivia for political gain and has demanded an end to the disruptions, indicating that it has already cost the Bolivian economy approximately USD 2 billion.

The country’s strained economy – characterised by declining natural gas production, dwindling foreign reserves, and rising inflation has only exacerbated tensions. As Bolivia approaches the 2025 presidential election, the convergence of economic hardship and polarised politics is likely to result in periodic unrest, potentially destabilising the country, undermining its democratic institutions and straining the economy.   

As no candidate secured a majority in the 27 October presidential election, a runoff vote will now take place on 24 November. The coalition Broad Front’s centre-left candidate Yamandu Orsi won the most votes, with 44 per cent, while the ruling National Party’s centre-right candidate Alvaro Delgado came second with 27 per cent.

The conservative vote was split, with the liberal-conservative Colorado Party candidate Andres Ojeda gaining 16 per cent of the vote. Ojeda has since pledged to back Delgado in the runoff election.

There were also two referenda, the first regarding a pension reform proposal and the second regarding enabling nighttime police raids across the country, with both being rejected by the electorate.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The election campaigns were markedly civil and the election in general is almost certainly indicative of the stability and relative lack of political polarisation in Uruguay compared to many other South American countries. There is a broad political consensus among all the leading candidates regarding the continuation of the pro-business policies of the current President Luis Lacalle Pou.

The turnout rate was 89 per cent, though this is almost certainly conditioned by laws that make voting compulsory in Uruguay. While Uruguayan politics has been primarily dominated by two big-tent coalitions, this election was notable in that Ojeda managed to secure 16 per cent.

With the centre-right vote split between Delgado and Ojeda in this first round, it is likely that the runoff election will be a tight contest between Orsi and Delgado.

Sikh separatist warns of Indian clandestine activity in US and Canada

The Sikh separatist and dual US-Canadian citizen, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, has warned of an established Indian intelligence network operating in the US and Canada. Pannun alleges that India is directly targeting Sikh separatists in North America, which includes attempted assassinations.

The accusations are likely to strain relations between India the US and Canada and have the potential to drive greater radicalisation of the Sikh community both within India and North America.

The Canadian signals intelligence agency, Communications Security Establishment (CSE) has also warned that the dispute is likely to lead to an increase in Indian cyber espionage targeting the Canadians.

Mexican government curbs power of the judiciary

Mexico’s lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, has approved a measure that bars judicial review of constitutional reforms, reinforcing changes advanced by the ruling party, Morena, and its allies. With Senate approval last week, the measure prevents the judiciary from challenging reforms, including the recent judicial overhaul. Opposition lawmakers have lambasted the move as authoritarian, over concerns regarding judicial independence. The latest reform has resulted in eight of eleven justices on Mexico’s Supreme Court resigning and is likely to lead to unrest in several parts of the country.

Argentina to champion diplomatic route to gain Falkland Islands

In response to the UK’s handing over of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, President Javier Milei of Argentina has stated that it is possible to gain control of the Falkland Islands via diplomatic processes despite UK claims that its sovereignty is non-negotiable. Argentina’s foreign minister has also stated that the conditions are now in place to resume flights between Argentina and the Falklands after four years of suspension, in a move that is likely reflective of a more conciliatory approach from Buenos Aires.

Island-wide power outage and unrest in Guadeloupe

Striking Electricite de France (EDF) workers caused an island-wide power outage in the French overseas department of Guadeloupe on 25 October after giving rise to an emergency shutdown at the Pointe Jarry thermal plant.

The outage had initially left the entire French Caribbean territory in darkness, disrupting water supply and internet access. By 26 October, power was gradually being restored, with 77 per cent of customers having electricity back by the evening, and full restoration was achieved by 27 October. The strike, which began in September, is unrelated to the more severe civil unrest in Martinique. However, there were reports of looting in Pointe-a-Pitre, and authorities imposed a curfew in ten municipalities in response to these incidents and the blackout.

Haitian gang attacks lead to US evacuations

The US is set to evacuate 20 embassy staff from Port-au-Prince, Haiti in response to escalating violence in the city. Criminal gangs have increased their assaults on the remaining areas of the capital outside of their control, with recent developments including opening fire on a UN World Food Programme (WFP) helicopter and attempts to target US embassy vehicles.

The WFP is becoming increasingly reliant on aircraft to complete its mission, with roads being deemed too dangerous due to gang attacks and the establishment of roadblocks. The gangs are likely attempting to attack all foreign entities assisting and disrupting aid deliveries to undermine the government and assert their influence over the country.

Increased gang violence is also likely indicative of Kenya’s failed intervention to reestablish law and order in the country.

Mexican authorities fail to curb cartel violence in Sinaloa State

A wave of cartel violence has continued in the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which Mexico is blaming on the US for the July arrest of cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. At least 14 people were murdered on 26 October alone, with most of the killings occurring in the state capital, Culiacán, where clashes between criminal groups have disrupted daily life and led to school and business closures.

Since 9 September, authorities have reported almost 200 fatalities and over 200 missing persons despite the mass deployment of troops from other parts of Mexico.

Argentina discloses head of Hezbollah operations in Latin America

Argentina’s Defence Minisiter Patricia Bullrich has publicly identified the head of Hezbollah operations in Latin America as Hussein Ahmad Karaki. She also alleged that he was responsible for the 1992 Israeli Embassy and 1994 Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) bombings in Buenos Aires, which collectively killed over 100 and injured around 500.

The accusations indicate that Hezbollah operations in South America are facilitated by Venezuela and that the Iranian-backed group had established direct ties to organised crime groups in the region, especially the Brazilian cartels Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho, which have reportedly become narco-terrorist networks under Hezbollah’s influence and have been responsible for much violence.

Mexico to celebrate Day of the Dead festival on 2 November

An estimated seven million people will take part in Mexico’s, Día de los Muertos, or Day of the Dead festival on 2 November, which will culminate in a major procession in central Mexico City. Almost 20,000 extra security personnel will be deployed, and major traffic disruptions are anticipated in the capital city. Whilst the festival is typically peaceful, it has sometimes led to impromptu protests and clashes with the authorities, with the recent judicial overhaul potentially serving as a catalyst for unrest.

On 29 October, an entire year’s worth of rain fell in just eight hours in parts of the Valencian Community (the political and administrative region), leading to severe flash flooding. The death toll across Spain is currently 158, although this is highly likely to rise in the coming days.

Almost all of the deaths occurred in the Valencian Community, although flooding also occurred in Castile-La Mancha, Andalusia, Aragon and Catalonia. The Valencia and Castellon provinces in the Valencian Community suffered the worst impact, particularly the towns of Torrent, Pairporta and Chiva, with rescue operations still ongoing.

Over 150,000 people lost power, and mass disruptions to transport were caused, with dozens of flight cancellations at Valencia Airport and the suspension of most train services in the region.

Solace Global Assessment: 

DANA is a Spanish acronym for high-altitude isolated depression. These storm systems develop due to the convergence of cold and warm air, which can form independently of polar or subtropical jet streams. Due to Spain’s location between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the country is especially vulnerable to the formation of such storm systems, particularly in the east and south.

While it will take time to determine a definitive connection between this particular storm and climate change, the mainstream consensus amongst the scientific community is that climate change highly likely worsens both the frequency and intensity of these weather events.

With 158 deaths so far reported, the storm has caused the most flood-related deaths in Europe since the 2021 European floods, which caused over 200 deaths, primarily in Germany and Belgium. Storm system DANA has also highly likely caused one of the deadliest natural disasters in modern Spanish history.

There is a realistic possibility that backlash against perceived inadequacies in the preparedness measures of authorities will lead to incidents of civil unrest.

Firstly, criticism has been made regarding the inadequacy of accurate forecasts for heavy rainfall being solely sufficient to forewarn populations of the imminent threat to life.

Secondly, evacuation alerts were allegedly sent to people’s phones too late in multiple reported instances, having been triggered when substantial flooding had already occurred and reportedly leading to panicked fleeing evacuees being forced to abandon their vehicles and urgently seek refuge due to already severely rising floodwaters. Developed economies that regularly experience tropical cyclones, such as Taiwan, have developed rigorous preparedness and resiliency measures that mitigate against the worst impact of storm-related flooding. Due to the relative infrequency of such events in Europe, however, many European states do not yet have equivalently comprehensive disaster management procedures.

On 28 October, US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) camps in the Badiya Desert in southern Syria. The strikes reportedly killed up to 35 ISIS insurgents, including senior leadership. CENTCOM has announced that the strikes will disrupt ISIS’ ability to “plan, organize, and conduct attacks against civilians, as well as U.S., allies, and partners throughout the region and beyond.”

Solace Global Assessment: 

The CENTCOM strikes are part of a wider trend of US and coalition forces targeting a resurgent ISIS throughout the region, which still presents a credible threat in both Iraq and Syria. The targeting of senior leadership will almost certainly help to deny ISIS’ resurgence, especially in the Badiya Desert on the Iraqi border where there is minimal coalition activity.

However, multiple regional and international developments are working in the favour of ISIS regrouping. Firstly, the war between Israel and Hamas has likely increased rates of radicalisation and a potential wider conflict has diverted attention and resources away from ISIS. Additionally, expanded Turkish operations in Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan have overstretched Kurdish forces, who were pivotal in the defeat of the caliphate.

Most importantly, the US is set to conclude a phased withdrawal of its 2500 troops from Iraq by 2026. If Iraqi forces are ill-prepared to deal with the ISIS threat, the terrorist group will likely exploit a reduced security presence and intelligence gaps to re-emerge in Iraq, enabling it to also regroup in Syria. This development could set the conditions where ISIS can recruit, raise funds and increase its attacks with the ultimate objective of destabilising the region and reasserting its influence. In the long term, a resurgent ISIS will likely be in a better position to plan and conduct external operations in places like Europe. Moreover, a stronger ISIS in the Levant may enhance its ability to coordinate efforts with the Islamic State’s network of affiliates such as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan, and a host of other affiliates spread throughout the world.  

According to the published 26 October parliamentary election results, Georgian Dream won almost 54 per cent of the vote, despite all exit polls aside from the one commissioned by the pro-government Imedi TV predicting victory for the combined vote of the opposition parties. The pro-Europe President Salome Zourabichvili refused to accept the election results and called for protests in Tbilisi. Tens of thousands gathered outside the Georgian parliament building on 28 October, contesting the election result and demanding a re-run.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Relative to both the scale and levels of violence in the protests against the “foreign agents” bill in March 2023 and April-June 2024, the post-election demonstrations thus far have been smaller and calmer. It is likely, however, that the civil unrest will grow in both size and intensity over the coming weeks.

Following President Zourabichvili’s refusal to accept the results and her call for protests, Zourabichvili was summoned to the Prosecutor’s Office to testify. While this is ostensibly due to possible evidence Zourabichvili has that is relevant to an investigation regarding the allegations of election fraud, Zourabichvili has indicated a refusal to comply, likely due to fears of institutional backlash against the Georgian opposition.

Meanwhile, international reaction has almost certainly further inflamed the stark political divisions in Georgia. Russian former President Dmitry Medvedev publicly called for the “puppet President of Georgia” to be impeached and arrested, the European Commission has stated that the election irregularities “must be clarified and addressed”, and US President Joe Biden expressed deep concern about “recent democratic backsliding”.

It is likely that political violence from Georgia’s far-right against the opposition will increase, and it is likely that further opposition demonstrations will involve violent clashes between protesters and security forces.

Following a large-scale missile attack by Iran against Israel on 1 October, Israel conducted retaliation strikes against Iran on 26 October. These strikes were primarily limited to military targets, particularly targets relating to Iran’s air defence and long-range fire capabilities. Over 100 aircraft, including  F-15s, F-16s, possibly F-35s and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), were used in the attack which has been codenamed by Israel as Operation Days of Repentance.  

Approximately 20 targets in the vicinity of Tehran and western Iran were struck, including three to four S-300 air defence batteries, air defence command-and-control sites, radars (including a sophisticated Ghadir early detection radar in Ahvaz), and defence industrial sites such as the Parchin and Khojir complexes near Tehran. Additionally, satellite imagery reveals damage to a storage unit at the Abadan Oil Refinery in Khuzestan.

Solace Global Assessment: 

In the aftermath of Iran’s 1 October attack against Israel, multiple possible scenarios of Israeli retaliation strikes were assessed to be plausible (and in some instances threatened by Israeli officials and politicians), each with varying degrees of potential escalatory impact. These included decapitation strikes against high-profile Iranian figures, strikes against Iran’s oil production facilities and energy infrastructure, and strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.

Overall, the strikes were ultimately primarily limited to military targets, which is highly likely one of the least escalatory scenarios that could have occurred. Nonetheless, the degradation of Iranian air defence capabilities has sent a strategic message to Tehran, highlighting Israel’s ability to penetrate Iranian air defence and likely setting the conditions that will increase the success rates of future Israeli operations against Iran.

Despite calls for strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, it was unlikely that such operations could have been anything more than symbolic, due to the requirement to use airframes carrying bunker-busting bombs that would need to penetrate deep into Iranian airspace and be highly vulnerable to air defence and interdiction. Nonetheless, the strikes on the Parchin complex are related, as the complex has likely been previously used for high explosives testing as part of its nuclear weapons development program, and traces of uranium were found at the site by international inspectors in 2015, although there is no indication that the site is currently used for Iran’s nuclear program.

However, by degrading Iran’s ballistic missile development and manufacturing capabilities, there is a realistic possibility that Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been hampered, as ballistic missiles would almost certainly serve as delivery systems for nuclear warheads. It is also likely that the Iranian supply of ballistic missiles to Russia and Axis of Resistance (the informal network of Iranian-backed and supported groups, ranging from Hezbollah to the Houthis) members will be disrupted as a result of the strikes, with the provision of ballistic missiles to Russia by Iran thought to be a particular danger to Ukraine due to the weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defence in intercepting ballistic missiles.

While damage has been reportedly confirmed at oil facilities in Iran, such as the storage unit at Abadan oil refinery, the main targets in the vicinity of Iranian energy infrastructure struck were air defence sites and it is unlikely that Iran’s oil production has been meaningfully impacted. This highly likely reduces the risk that retaliation by Iran and Iran-backed proxy forces will be against Western energy interests in the region, as was previously threatened by Iranian officials if Iran’s oil industry was significantly targeted. The attempts by various senior defence officials and politicians to characterise the strikes as “minor” may influence Iran to refrain from a major retaliation; however, threats of retaliation have still been made. Any response from Iran is likely to be limited and strategically designed to remain below the threshold that would provoke further significant Israeli operations.

Since Mozambique’s electoral commission declared that Daniel Chapo of the incumbent FRELIMO party had been elected president on 24 October, the country has struggled with civil unrest provoked by accusations of electoral fraud. On 29 October, the opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane called for week-long protests and strikes beginning on 31 October. Reporting from Mozambique is currently limited; however, there are indications on social media that protests are ongoing across many of the country’s largest cities, including Maputo, Beira, and Nampula.  

Solace Global Assessment: 

Mondlane’s calls for nationwide protests will almost certainly result in widespread unrest and violent confrontations with the security services. Mondlane is hugely popular with Mozambique’s youth who are primarily involved in the recent unrest which erupted in several major cities across the country.

However, the internet observatory group, NetBlocks, which monitors and reports on internet disruptions has warned that social media and messaging platforms in Mozambique have been restricted, making it challenging for external observers to accurately monitor the scale and nature of the unrest. These measures are almost certainly representative of the government’s attempt to disrupt the spread of unrest and obfuscate its violent handling of the protests.

Local medical groups have warned that the government’s previous crackdown on post-election protests involved the firing of live ammunition which resulted in at least ten deaths and 63 injured, although the real numbers are likely much higher. The government’s use of violence to suppress unrest has almost certainly increased tensions and will act as a catalyst for further unrest.

Aid workers have stated that the unrest has disrupted the delivery of humanitarian aid to the northern Cabo Delgado region where members of al-Shabab, a local Islamist group affiliated with the Islamic State, but distinct from the Somalian-based group, have been targeting local communities. There is a realistic possibility that militants will exploit the current unrest to conduct attacks on local communities and the security services.

UK Conservative Party set to announce new leader

Following Rishi Sunak’s resignation, the Conservative Party are set to appoint their new leader. The remaining candidates, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, are both from the right of the party, potentially signalling a shift in policy towards more traditional conservative values to counter the Reform Party. Such a shift could help legitimise some of the ideas of the far-right, potentially leading to a more polarised UK, anti-migrant rhetoric and increased incidents of far-right violence.

Second round of Moldovan presidential runoff set for 3 November

Two weeks after the first round of a presidential election and EU accession referendum marked by significant Russian interference, Moldovans will go to the polls in the second round of the presidential election. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu, who secured the most votes in the first round, will go head-to-head with the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo. Russian disinformation campaigns and cyber-attacks attempting to influence the election are likely and the authorities have also warned of Russian-backed criminal groups attempting to disrupt the electoral process.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah appoint Naim Qassem as new leader

Following the death of long-term leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike, Hezbollah has appointed Naim Qassem as the new Secretary-General of the militant group. Israel has dismissed Qassem’s appointment as temporary and has almost certainly designated him as a tier-one target, and reports indicate he has sought shelter in Iran.

However, the assassination of Hamas’ Haniyeh demonstrated Israel’s reach, with a further assassination on Iranian soil likely to provoke Iran into retaliatory attacks. Early indications suggest Qassem may seek a more cautious approach than his predecessor, potentially opening the door for a truce with Israel.

However, there is a realistic possibility that his relocation to Iran and alleged poor leadership may jeopardise Hezbollah’s ability to maintain cohesion within the group.

JNIM claim attack on Nigerien military on outskirts of capital

On 26 October, the Islamist group and al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed an attack on a Nigerien army checkpoint just 10 kilometres from the capital Niamey. The attack purportedly killed one soldier and resulted in JNIM seizing weaponry and military equipment.

This incident marks the closest jihadist attack to Niamey since the military coup in July 2023, highlighting the growing threat posed by armed groups in the region and potentially a change in strategy. The attack follows recent JNIM attacks in the regional capitals Ouagadougou and Bamako, with militants likely attempting to destabilise the country and undermine junta governments by attacking their centres of authority which are also used by international organisations to coordinate humanitarian efforts.

Boko Haram attack kills 40 Chadian soldiers

At least 40 Chadian soldiers were killed on 27 October after the Islamist group Boko Haram attacked a Chadian Army garrison in the Lake Chad region. The attack has resulted in Operation Haskanite, the aim of which is to hunt down and root out the hundreds of Boko Haram militants responsible for the attack in the vast Lake Chad region, which the group have exploited as a safe haven. Boko Haram are almost certainly taking advantage of the wider destabilisation of the Sahel to conduct increased attacks, with attacks in Chad likely designed to undermine the Chadian government and to divert resources away from their traditional stronghold in northern Nigeria.  

Sudan’s RSF kill hundreds of civilians in El Gezira village raid

The paramilitary force known as the Rapid Support Forces has been implicated in one of the deadliest attacks of the Sudanese civil war after Al-Suhra village in El Gezira State was attacked. The raid is estimated to have killed at least 124 people, mainly civilians. The attack follows the recent surrender of a high-ranking RSF officer and is likely an example of a revenge attack on communities supporting government forces and is also likely an example of genocide. These attacks have increased rates of displacement in Sudan, with the UN indicating that almost 50,000 had been displaced within only the last week. The attacks have also included the mass rape of women and girls, leading to high rates of suicide. With the highly mobile RSF pressing on multiple fronts, the Sudanese Armed Forces are likely becoming increasingly incapable of defending rural communities.

Ghana rejects notion that it is safe haven for Sahelian militants

Ghana’s government has dismissed claims that Islamist militants from Burkina Faso are exploiting northern Ghana as a logistical and medical support base. The claims indicated that militant groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) are using Ghana to sustain operations in the Sahel and has even established a de facto non-aggression pact with Ghana, a claim Accra refutes. It is likely that militants are currently refraining from conducting attacks in Ghana so as to not disrupt their supply lines into neighbouring Burkina Faso. However, if Ghana begins to change its strategy towards the militants, potentially in response to external pressures, it is likely that militants will adapt and seek to destabilise northern Ghana through direct attacks.

Storm Jacob to hit southern Sweden

As of 1 November, Storm Jakob has hit southern Sweden, causing major weather disruptions. Yellow weather warnings are in effect for northern Gotland and southern Svealand, signalling potential hazards and disruptions to daily life with several ferry services to Gotland already cancelled.

UK confirms first case of new Mpox strain

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has confirmed the first case of the Clade Ib variant of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) in the UK. Detected in London, the authorities stated that the patient had recently travelled to Africa. However, the UKHSA has stated that the risk to the public remains low, with health officials tracing fewer than 10 direct contacts.

Mauritius bans social media access in run up to general election

On November 1, Mauritius’s communications regulator ordered a suspension of social media access from November 1 to 11, following a wiretapping scandal which involved the leaked conversations of politicians and other senior figures. Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth’s office stated the restriction is necessary due to the publication of sensitive audio clips. However, the opposition and civil society groups have criticised the decision, stating that it will harm the economy and deny a fair democratic process. The denial of access to social media platforms has likely been done to limit the public’s exposure to the leaked audio and to disrupt the organisation of protests during the election.

On 29 October, militants attacked a health centre in Orakzai, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in western Pakistan, leading to the deaths of two police officers and three militants. The health centre was involved in an anti-polio campaign and health workers were attacked as they prepared to go on a door-to-door vaccination campaign, which is typically escorted by the police.

No group has claimed the attack; however, the location is within a traditional stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP).

On 1 November, at least seven people were killed after an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated near a girl’s school in southwestern Pakistan in the restless Balochistan province. The police claim that the intended target was police van which was going to pick up a polio vaccination team.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Whilst no militant group has claimed responsibility for the attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa , the location and nature of the attack indicate that it was likely conducted by the TTP. Islamist militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan have long held the belief that polio vaccination drives are part of a Western conspiracy to sterilise Muslim children, a belief that has been reinforced by years of propaganda and misinformation. This has resulted in Pakistan and Afghanistan being the only two countries in the world where the spread of polio has never been stopped.

A recent resurgence of polio cases in the region has prompted vaccination drives in both countries. The Taliban administration in Afghanistan has moved away from its previous stance on polio vaccinations and authorised the resumption of nationwide immunisation campaigns, including allowing female health workers to participate. However, it is likely that the TTP and many extremists still harbour the belief that polio vaccination campaigns are part of a Western conspiracy and that female health workers should not be allowed to participate.

The location of the IED attack in Balochistan may indicate that separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), who are most active in the area, have also adopted the belief that vaccinations are a Western conspiracy. The recent attack underscore these beliefs and indicates that militants throughout the region are likely to attack health workers and healthcare facilities linked to the immunisation programmes, attacks that will likely disrupt the programmes and hinder regional efforts to eradicate polio.

On 31 October, North Korea conducted a test fire of an upgraded intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what Pyongyang has described as the “world’s most powerful strategic deterrent” and as a “warning to perceived enemies”. The missile, which can be nuclear-armed, was in the air for 87 minutes, reached an altitude of 7,000 kilometres and flew a distance of around 1,000 kilometres before falling into the Sea of Japan, approximately 200 kilometres west of Hokkaido, outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Solace Global Assessment: 

The timing of North Korea’s ICBM test is likely aimed at the US and serves as strategic messaging before the 5 November presidential elections. The claimed performance of the ICBM suggests that North Korean ICBMs are now likely capable of reaching the US mainland.  Whilst the missile only landed west of Japan, it was fired at a lofted or high arc trajectory, ensuring it would land relatively close to North Korea. If fired on a more horizontal trajectory, the ICBM will likely be able to reach the US, a conclusion determined by the missile’s ceiling and time spent in the air.

The test is also likely an attempt to divert attention from North Korea’s recent controversial decision to deploy troops to Russia and Ukraine in support of the Kremlin. However, this development is likely indicative of increased military cooperation between the two countries. North Korea’s troop deployment may have been guaranteed in exchange for Russian assistance in developing ICBMs. The improved characteristics of North Korea’s ICBM may indicate improved access to Russian technology and expertise.

Closer cooperation with Russia has enabled North Korea to circumvent sanctions and there are early indications that North Korea is slowly being absorbed into a new, informal military alliance with China, Russia and Iran, colloquially referred to as “CRINK”. Such an alliance will likely allow North Korea to procure even more advanced weaponry, such as solid fuel propulsion and improved guidance systems. For Moscow and Beijing, an increasingly capable and aggressive North Korea serves as a strategic buffer to counter the US but will also likely force the West to reassess its military posture and alliances in the region, potentially affecting regional stability.

27 October marked the first anniversary of “Operation 1027”, an offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA), a tripartite coalition of ethnic rebel groups including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army (AA), and the Ta’an National Liberation Army (TNLA). The TBA has since developed alliances with multiple other ethnic rebel groups, which primarily represent the ethnic minorities of the Karen, Kachin and Shan.

After a year of fighting, the rebel groups have seized large swathes or Myanmar, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country. To commemorate the anniversary of Operation 1027, Maung Saungkha, the leader of an ethnic Bamar resistance group, the Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA). Has stated that it will shift its operations to focus on central Myanmar, with the objective of expelling junta forces from the Bamar-majority regions of Sagaing, Magwe, and Mandalay.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Established after Myanmar’s 2021 coup, the BPLA differentiates itself from most of the other rebel groups by representing the Bamar people, the ethnic majority in Myanmar, which is the main ethnicity of the ruling junta. The success of the other ethnic rebel groups has likely diverted junta resources to other parts of the country, providing the BPLA with the opportunity to conduct operations in what has traditionally been an area where the junta has consolidated power.

As Bamar rebels, the BPLA is in an advantageous position to coordinate with other Bamar resistance groups and to conduct guerilla warfare in the central regions. This operational shift could challenge the junta’s control over central Myanmar. If the BPLA succeeds in disrupting the junta’s supply lines or compels it to divert resources to defend major cities like Mandalay, this could work to the advantage of rebel forces in other regions, as the junta might be forced to withdraw forces from these areas.

This operational shift could occur as early as November, with the rainy season typically ending in late October or early November, marking the onset of drier conditions that facilitate military operations. However, operations in central Myanmar are likely to attract more international attention and could prompt external powers like China to provide more support for the junta. Central operations will also likely exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region, especially if they threaten major population centres like Mandalay, with this likely leading to higher casualties, more internally displaced persons (IDPs), disruption of essential services and an increased refugee crisis in neighbouring countries like Thailand.

Protesters set fire to Jatiya Party’s office in Kakrail, Bangladesh

On 31 October, the central office of Bangladesh’s Jatiya Party in Dhaka was attacked and set on fire amid escalating tensions. The Jatiya Party, formerly allied with ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, had announced plans for a rally, prompting opposition from groups critical of the previous administration. Protesters, under the banner “Anti-fascist students, workers, and masses”, marched with torches near the Jatiya Party headquarters in Kakrail. Clashes ensued when individuals from the party’s office allegedly threw bricks at the demonstrators, leading to vandalism and the subsequent fire. This underscores the ongoing political volatility in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina’s outsitting in August.

Japan’s ruling coalition fails to maintain its majority

On 27 October, Japan’s incumbent coalition suffered a surprise defeat and lost their majority in the Japanese parliament. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, failed to achieve a majority in the snap election, with voters likely indicating their disapproval of the government after corruption scandals and poor economic performance. The results have plunged Japan into a political crisis which could be exploited by China through increased intrusions into disputed Japanese territory.

Baluch separatists attack major infrastructure project in western Pakistan

On October 29, 2024, five people were killed in an attack by militants at a dam construction site in Panjgur, Baluchistan, in what is likely another Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) attack on infrastructure projects in the region. Baluch separatists have conducted multiple attacks on infrastructure and foreign interests in the region to disrupt projects which they deem are exploitative and only benefit the central government and their foreign backers like China.

Mass stabbing outside school in Beijing, China

On 28 October, a knife attack near a prestigious primary school in Beijing’s Haidian district injured five people, including three children, with the suspect arrested at the scene. However, this attack is part of a growing trend in China of mass casualty and largely indiscriminate stabbings, with strict guns laws forcing attackers to use bladed articles. These incidents are likely increasing as a result of several domestic issues including economic hardship, unemployment and an increase with mental health issues, with attackers often selecting high-profile targets like schools and shopping malls for maximum publicity.

Filipino authorities place the Metro Manila Department of Health on Code White

In the Philippines, The Department of Health in Metro Manila has placed all hospitals and health facilities in the National Capital Region on Code White alert from 31 October to 2 November. This alert level is a precaution to ensure that medical services are fully prepared to handle the anticipated increase in visitors to cemeteries and heightened travel during All Saints’ and All Souls’ Days.

Largest storm in 30 years leads to fatalities in Taiwan

Super Typhoon Kong-rey has heavily impacted Taiwan and is now affecting eastern China. As of November 1, the typhoon has resulted in two fatalities and 580 injuries in Taiwan, along with extensive damage, including power outages for 150,000 households and significant disruptions to public transport, notably the suspension of Taipei Metro services on overground lines. Cleanup operations are ongoing, and in Kaohsiung, approximately 370 people remain isolated due to flash flooding and landslides that have blocked access, with further landslides in the country likely.

In China, at least 282,000 people have been evacuated from Zhejiang Province as the storm moves northeast. Although Kong-rey has weakened into a tropical storm north of Taiwan, it continues to pose a threat with maximum sustained winds of 78 mph and is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds. The Chinese government has issued an orange typhoon warning in anticipation of further adverse weather.