Hurricane Oscar initially formed north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as a Tropical Depression on 19 October before strengthening into a category 1 hurricane with maximum windspeeds of 139 km/h.

On 20 October, the storm made landfall in eastern Cuba and caused at least seven fatalities, primarily affecting the towns of Imías and San Antonio del Sur in Guantanamo. The storm brought heavy rainfall, leading to major flooding, particularly in Baracoa, and resulted in blocked roads and additional damage in areas such as El Jamal. Cuban authorities responded by evacuating approximately 15,000 people from the most affected areas.

The storm also affected the Bahamas, prompting tropical storm warnings as Oscar moved through the central and southeastern parts of the archipelago. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Oscar’s strength diminished as it moved northeastward, with maximum sustained winds reducing to 56 km/h as of 22 October, leading to the discontinuation of all tropical watches and warnings in the Bahamas.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The impact of Hurricane Oscar has exacerbated the continuing energy crisis in Cuba, where nationwide blackouts have resulted from a power station failure in Matanzas combining with a wider energy crisis, with at least four major blackouts recorded.

While Cuban President Díaz-Canel reported that 70 per cent of electricity services have been restored, the country continues to face ongoing blackouts. The blackouts have triggered multiple demonstrations in Havana, leading to traffic disruptions. The government has partially laid the blame on the US for increased economic sanctions.

Further blackouts are likely across the country with the authorities prioritising the restoration of power to the capital.

Unrest which began in September continues to grip Martinique. Protesters launched a new wave of unrest over the high cost of living, leading to violent clashes and significant disruptions.

Protesters have established roadblocks on major highways, such as the N2 near Case-Pilote. At least seven barricades were set up overnight on 22-23 October by protesters in several areas, including Sainte-Luce, Case-Pilote, and Fort-de-France. These protests have seen aggressive actions against security forces, with the use of molotov cocktails, projectiles, and gunfire being reported. Video footage captured scenes of barricades on fire in the Fond Lahaye area of Schoelcher.

French authorities have responded by extending an island-wide 00:00-05:00 curfew until 28 October to curb the unrest.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Food prices in the Caribbean French overseas department of Martinique are approximately 40 per cent higher than in mainland France. Key protest organisers, The Rally for the Protection of Afro-Caribbean Peoples and Resources (RPPRAC), are calling for price parity with mainland France.

On 16 October, the local prefecture signed a protocol with numerous local groups intending to reduce the price of basic goods by approximately 20 per cent. However, the RPPRAC has refused to sign the deal and has called for continuing unrest. The unrest has very likely been inflamed by the deployment of the Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité (CRS), elite riot police that have not been deployed in Martinique since the 1959 “Black December” riots. These resulted in three deaths being attributed to the CRS.

The current spate of unrest has been markedly violent, with at least one death being reported thus far due to gunfire during the looting of a shopping centre on 10 October. While the cause of the Martinique unrest is distinct from the May riots that broke out in the Pacific French overseas territory of New Caledonia (which were sparked by a local voting reform change) there is a realistic possibility that the Martinique unrest could develop to be as severe. In New Caledonia, the violent riots led to the declaration of a state of emergency and the deployment of the French army, with foreign nationals struggling to evacuate due to the closure of the main international airport.

In Martinique, the Aime Cesaire International Airport (FDF) briefly closed on 17 October after protesters stormed the runway. While the closure was only temporary (with the airport reopening on 18 October and Flightradar24 indicating normal operation currently) there is a realistic possibility that further escalating unrest and targeting of the airport by protesters could lead to airport closure. This would leave maritime options as the only way to depart the island.

Peru transport workers strike

On 23 October, bus drivers in Lima, Peru, went on strike for the third time in less than a month, protesting against violent attacks and extortion, with the strike leading to significant disruptions in the capital. In response, soldiers were deployed to maintain order, and the government closed schools. Despite a state of emergency declared last month, President Dina Boluarte promised to capture criminal leaders and announced increased surveillance of foreigners, linking Venezuelan migrants to the rise in insecurity.

Haitian gangs intensify attacks in capital.

Haitian gangs have intensified their attacks in areas not yet under their control, according to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). The BINUH warned the UN Security Council that violence has escalated, particularly from the armed gang alliance Viv Ansanm, spreading across the capital Port-au-Prince and surrounding regions. The gangs are likely exploiting the fact that only a fraction of the 3,000 troops pledged to support the Haitian police have arrived and are attempting to consolidate territory before their arrival. The attacks have compounded food shortages, with over five million Haitians facing food insecurity and have led to thousands more being displaced.

Security situation continues to deteriorate in Mexican state of Sinaloa.

Violence in parts of Mexico has continued to increase as a result of the power vacuum left following the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada of the Sinaloa Cartel. It is estimated that at least 200 people have been killed due to intra-cartel violence since early September. On 22 October a shootout near the Sinaloa state capital of Culiacan led to the deaths of at least 19 gang members after they fired on Mexican soldiers. The security state is currently classified by the US State Department as Level 4: Do Not Travel, due to the increased violence.

Tropical Storm Nadine causes significant damage in Central America.

Tropical Storm Nadine, which formed east of Belize City on 19 October, has caused significant destruction across Mexico and Central America. There were at least four deaths and flooding in 22 municipalities in Chiapas, Mexico, while Veracruz saw two fatalities and 3,000 homes flooded across 32 municipalities. Oaxaca also reported one death and several landslides that disrupted roads, with landslides also recorded in Puebla. The Mexican government has deployed 23,000 military personnel for relief efforts with the remnants of Nadine still causing issues.

Extratropical cyclone brings severe weather to Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil.

A rare extratropical cyclone has developed in the South Atlantic and has moved inland, affecting regions of Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. The system has brought heavy rain, strong winds and severe weather conditions, resulting in at least three fatalities in southern Brazil. The severe weather is forecast to remain until at least 26 October and will likely spread to parts of southern Paraguay, likely leading to floods, landslides and property damage across the wider region.

On 23 October, the headquarters of Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) near Ankara was attacked by a male and female militant. The small arms fire attack resulted in the deaths of at least five people and 22 injured. The attack has resulted in the Turkish authorities increasing security measures throughout the country, including at major airports. Initial observations indicate that at least one of the suspects was a member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The Turkish military has responded with increased strikes against Kurdish targets in Syria and Iraq.

Solace Global Assessment: 

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack; however, the involvement of a female militant indicates that the attack was highly likely conducted by a Kurdish militant group. The TUSAS headquarters was almost certainly attacked due to its involvement in the production of military equipment used in Turkey’s war against the Kurds, which expanded into Syria in 2019 following the US withdrawal.

Turkish intelligence officials have stated that retaliatory strikes have targeted military facilities, ammunition depots and energy infrastructure, the latter of which is not considered a legitimate military target unless certain conditions are met. Turkish strikes have targeted a gas plant in as-Suweyda, Syria, which was hit, causing extensive damage and disrupting gas production; a power plant in Kobani, Syria, where the airstrike led to significant power outages in the region; and a medical facility in Qamishli, Syria, which was allegedly used by militants.

The Turkish strategy appears to be similar in nature to Russia’s in Ukraine, targeting civilian critical national infrastructure (CNI) before the advent of winter. These strikes will likely have a major humanitarian effect and will likely result in retaliatory attacks by Kurdish militant groups. It is likely leveraging the fog of war in Syria, with regional instability creating a more permissive environment for Turkey to target civilian sites, a strategy that would highly likely receive greater condemnation if conducted in Iraq.

The Turkish authorities have also arrested 12 suspects linked to the  FETÖ organisation in Ankara, a group associated with the exiled cleric Fethullah Gülen who died on 20 October. Gülen had been implicated in the 2016 attempted coup against incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The Turkish government is likely exploiting this attack to crackdown on supporters of Gülen, the most influential and vocal critic of the Erdoğan administration.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators attended a pro-Europe “Georgia Chooses the European Union” rally in Tbilisi’s Freedom Square on 20 October. In attendance was President Salome Zourabichvili, who is a vocal opponent of the ruling Georgian Dream party. The rally was held in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary election on 26 October, with the primary issue of the election being further geopolitical alignment with either the West or Russia.

Solace Global Assessment: 

While the ruling Georgian Dream party denies that it is pro-Russia, it has pursued a neutral to pro-Russian agenda. The prospective passage of the “foreign agents” bill that was passed in May, which is similar to an equivalent law in Russia, led to considerable civil unrest marked by violent clashes in both March 2023 and from April to June 2024.

While polling indicates that 79 per cent of Georgians want to join the European Union, the opposition parties are highly disunited. Overall, however, available polling averages indicate that support for the various pro-European parties is 54 per cent compared to Georgian Dream’s 34 per cent. It is therefore likely that without significant electoral interference, pro-European parties will win at least a plurality in the upcoming election. Despite their disunity, it is likely that such a result would lead to efforts to form a pro-European coalition.

If Georgian Dream wins, it is likely that there will be accusations of vote rigging and calls for a recount, due to the use of a new electronic voting system that will be used by approximately 90 per cent of voters which has triggered concerns regarding vote rigging. It is also likely that if Georgian Dream wins, they will pursue closer relations with Russia, possibly seeking a deal regarding the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which would almost certainly inflame further unrest.

If the opposition wins, there is a realistic possibility that political violence targeting high-profile opposition leaders may be triggered, with far-right organisations such as Alt-Info having encouraged such violence in the past.

Documents attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) showing classified US intelligence on Israel’s preparations for a potential retaliatory strike on Iran surfaced on social media on 18 October, although their authenticity remains unverified. The FBI has confirmed an investigation is being conducted into how the unauthorised release of Top Secret documents occurred.

Solace Global Assessment: 

It is highly likely that the NGA documents are authentic, due to the reaction by US authorities. The reports indicate specific munitions the Israel Defence Force (IDF) is preparing for retaliatory strikes against Iran following the 1 October Iranian missile attack on Israel.

The primary weapon systems observed being prepared by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) for highly likely impending strikes against Iran, are long-range air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs), with the intelligence report claiming the IAF “has handled at least 16 Golden Horizon ALBMs, and at least 40 IS02 Rocks since 8 October, according to imagery analysis”. No activity relating to Israel’s almost certainly existing nuclear weapons program was observed, due to the lack of observed Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) activity – which notably but unsurprisingly, against Israel’s official policy of deliberate ambiguity about its nuclear weapons program, is confirmation that the United States Intelligence Community (IC) is aware of the existence of Israel’s nuclear weapons.

Israeli retaliation strikes will highly likely be greater than the retaliation for Iran’s April attack against Israel, with concerns that further regional escalation could be triggered. While it is most likely that Israeli strikes will be limited to Iranian military installations and facilities, there is a realistic possibility that Israel could additionally target Iranian oil facilities, and while unlikely, Israel could also target Iranian nuclear facilities.

On 24 October, Mozambique’s electoral commission declared that Daniel Chapo of the incumbent FRELIMO party had been elected after reportedly securing 70 per cent of the votes, enabling FRELIMO to increase its seats in parliament to 195 out of 250, up from 184.

However, the relatively new PODEMOS opposition party and external observers, including a European Union (EU) mission had reported irregularities and incidents of electoral fraud from the 9 October election. Accusations of fraud and democratic backsliding have triggered unrest throughout the country, leading to dozens of arrests.

Tear gas and live ammunition were also used to quash violent confrontations, primarily between the supporters of PODEMOS and the police.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The official declaration of FRELIMO’s victory will unlikely stop the current unrest, with reports circulating that the ruling party, which has ruled for nearly 50 years, registered almost one million fake voters. Moreover, the opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane, has called for nationwide protests. Mondlane, who came second in the disputed election, is hugely popular with Mozambique’s youth, who are currently leading much of the protest action.

The scale and intensity of the protests have likely increased in response to government actions, particularly the use of live ammunition in isolated cases, external criticism from the EU and the country’s underlying economic conditions. On 19 October, Mondlane’s lawyer and a senior figure in PODEMOS were assassinated in the capital Maputo. This development has further energised the protests, with many alleging that the government was directly involved in the killings.

There is a realistic possibility that Mondlane’s call for nationwide protests could bring thousands onto the streets across Mozambique, with demonstrators likely attempting to block roads and shut down businesses. To counter the protests, the government is likely to introduce countermeasures like curfews, suspend communications, and deploy more forces, likely leading to violent confrontations and disruptions to transport and business operations.

In a rare interview, a senior leader and founding member of Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), the Emir of Katiba Macina (MLF) Amadou Koufa (also spelt Hamadoun Kouffa), answered several questions regarding JNIM’s activities and intentions in the Sahel and West Africa.

Koufa justified the pervasive violence against civilians conducted by JNIM in the region as part of a conflict with the rival violent extremist organisation (VEO) Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP). Koufa also stated that JNIM is “open” to negotiations with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, as long as they occur within the framework of Sharia law.

Most notably, Koufa confirmed that JNIM are attempting to expand into the West African states of Ghana, Togo and Benin.

Solace Global Assessment: 

JNIM and other jihadist VEOs such as ISSP are highly active in the Sahel Junta states of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, which have each struggled to contain the insurgencies without the support of Western military forces which they have each expelled. There is a realistic possibility that one or more of these juntas could collapse in the next year.

The threat of VEOs in the Sahel poses a significant risk of spillover into the wealthier and more stable neighbouring West African states, and jihadist VEOs are launching attacks in the northern areas of such states with increasing frequency. For example, on 23 September JNIM released claims of responsibility for attacks against government forces in both Togo and Benin, claiming to have attacked a Togolese army patrol east of Kankanti with improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and a Beninese army installation in Bangoun which led to the deaths of two Benin Armed Forces (FAB) soldiers.

The public statement of JNIM’s intent to expand into Ghana, Togo and Benin will almost certainly add to concerns amongst West African authorities about the increasing threat of jihadist VEOs, groups that are almost certainly able to leverage the expansive “ungoverned space” in the Sahel junta states as a base from which they can further expand operations into the wider region.

If a Sahel junta state completely collapses, or attacks in West Africa considerably escalate, it is likely that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), likely with Western support (particularly from the US and France), will be compelled to intervene with a military campaign against Sahel-based VEOs, which would in turn likely increase the risk of a wider conflict with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), the rival confederation to ECOWAS formed by Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

Police shooting in Amadora, Portugal leads to unrest.

On 21 October, a police shooting of a suspect in the city of Amadora on the outskirts of Lisbon resulted in several consecutive nights of rioting. Violence escalated after rioters set fire to a bus, forcing the police to increase their presence in the area. Unrest spread to the Carnaxide area of Lisbon where the police deployed rubber bullets to disperse the rioters. There is a realistic possibility that the unrest will spread further across Lisbon and wider Portugal as a result of police action.

General election in Bulgaria to be held on 27 October.

It will be the seventh general election in just three years, with political crises having gripped Bulgaria since 2021. A recent poll published indicated that the level of public trust in the Bulgarian parliament is just six per cent, a record low, which is almost certainly reflective of widespread dissatisfaction with the political status quo in Bulgaria.

All elections since 2021 have failed to result in a single party winning enough seats to form a stable government, and it is highly likely that the upcoming election will once again produce a heavily fragmented parliament. There is a realistic possibility that continuing political dysfunction in Bulgaria will precipitate the rise of anti-establishment populist forces, such as There Is Such a People (ITN) who are polling at 5 per cent, and far-right ultranationalist formations such as Revival who are polling at 15 per cent.

Russia’s intelligence services (RIS) are highly active in Bulgaria, and it is almost certain that Moscow has attempted political interference operations, with the observed intensified distribution of pro-Russian and anti-West/Ukraine propaganda in Bulgarian online spaces. 

Election fraud alleged in Iraqi-Kurdistan parliamentary elections.

The semi-autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan held parliamentary elections on 20 October, resulting in a landslide victory for the incumbent Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). However, the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU), Kurdistan Justice Group (Komal), The People’s Front (Baray Gal), and the National Stance Movement (Halwest) have all alleged that there were multiple incidences of electoral fraud and violations, promising to release evidence in the coming days. Should the parties release credible evidence of fraud, there is a realistic possibility of unrest, further fuelled by the ongoing economic crisis and existing dissatisfaction with the current government.

Israeli airstrikes in Gaza amid imminent cease-fire talks in Qatar.

In Gaza, Israeli airstrikes targeting residential buildings and command centres, resulted in significant civilian casualties, with reports indicating at least 200 Palestinians killed and many more injured. Notable attacks occurred in the Al-Shati refugee camp and Rafah.

On 24 October, reports confirmed that Mossad Director David Barnea is set to attend talks in Doha over this coming weekend, concerning hostages and a potential ceasefire. The US is also involved, with CIA Director Bill Burns expected to join the discussions.

However, it is highly likely that the key issue of the Philadelphi Corridor will continue to act as a major obstacle to progress,  regarding its leadership following the death of Yahya Sinwar.

Saudi and Iran conduct first-ever joint naval drills.

The Royal Saudi Naval Forces conducted their first-ever joint naval drills with the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy in the Sea of Oman on 24 October in what almost certainly marks a significant development in the increasingly thawing relationship between Riyadh and Tehran. The two Middle Eastern powers only restored diplomatic ties in 2023 following a China-brokered agreement. Saudi still officially maintains a neutral stance concerning the war in the Middle East and is likely currently engaging with Iran as it fears that highly likely impending Israeli retaliation strikes against Iran could trigger the targeting of Saudi oil facilities by Iran and its proxies.

Reports indicate Russia provided targeting data to Houthis in Red Sea.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russia has been providing targeting data for the Houthis’ anti-merchant shipping campaign in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden, which has involved the targeting of over 80 vessels. The report alleges Russia provided satellite targeting data to the Houthis which was then relayed to the Houthis via Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). The data has likely enabled the Houthis to more accurately target vessels and has been used by Russia to undermine the US, force resources to be dedicated to the region over Ukraine and increase oil and gas prices to Moscow’s benefit.

Germany records first case of new Mpox strain.

On 22 October, German health chiefs from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announced that they had identified the first confirmed case of the new clade Ib strain of the Mpox virus. The institute revealed that the carrier was infected abroad but released no further details. The virus, which is behind a major outbreak of Mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has now resulted in at least 1,000 deaths across Africa and has prompted a global health emergency alert from the World Health Organisation (WHO). However, the RIK has stated that the threat to the general population in Germany remains low after isolating this case.

Severe flooding in multiple Italian regions.

From 20 October, multiple regions across Italy, including Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, and Sicily, were severely affected by flooding, prompting a series of emergency declarations and evacuations. The flooding in Sicily has triggered a state of emergency and in Lombardy, troops have been drafted in to help with rescue efforts. The flooding has resulted in road and school closures and other forms of disruption. With rain forecasted for much of Italy, the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

Severe flooding in South Africa’s Eastern Cape.

At least ten people have been killed and over 3,000 displaced by severe flooding in South Africa’s Eastern Cape. The flooding has predominantly affected the Nelson Mandela Bay area, including the cities of Gqeberha and Kariega, causing widespread damage to homes, infrastructure, and disrupting daily life. The area is on high alert with further heavy rain forecasted.

Cyclone Dana made landfall in India’s Odisha state on 25 October at Very Severe Cyclonic Storm strength. The storm had maximum windspeeds of 120km/h in the Bay of Bengal, equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane, but made landfall with maximum windspeeds of 109km/h before further weakening.

Authorities evacuated 1.1 million people Cyclone Dana caused adverse torrential rainfall in Odisha and West Bengal state. In neighbouring Bangladesh, several houses collapsed due to strong winds in Kalapara, though no significant damage has been reported in other areas.

The Indian Meteorological Department had earlier suspended flights at Kolkata airport as a precautionary measure, and train services were cancelled in Odisha state, however, flight operations and most train services have now resumed.

Solace Global Assessment: 

As of the morning of 25 October, no deaths or major damage has been reported. However, this is highly likely to change. The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) assessed that Cyclone Dana could have a “high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability”.

While India is assessed by GDACS as being highly vulnerable to the impact of tropical cyclones, Indian authorities effectively conducted mass evacuations before Cyclone Dana made landfall, with hundreds of personnel from the National Disaster Relief Force (NDRF) going door-to-door with loudspeakers. In 2019-2021, major cyclones such as Amphan, Yaas and Fani killed hundreds of people and caused billions of dollars in damages.

Last year was the deadliest North Indian Ocean cyclone season since 2017, with 523 deaths and GBP 2.3 billion in damages in India alone. It is highly likely that global warming is a key driver for measurably worsening storm seasons, increasing both the frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms, as well as the window for when storms are formed.

Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has issued an arrest warrant for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for alleged involvement in mass killings during violent protests earlier this year. Student-led protests against job quotas escalated into widespread unrest, with her government’s violent crackdown leading to almost 200 deaths, including 32 children. In addition, over 60 complaints have been filed against Hasina and her Awami League party, accusing them of enforced disappearances, murders and extrajudicial killings.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Hasina, who had ruled Bangladesh for over 20 years, fled to India in August after an interim government took control of Bangladesh following the unrest. Her government initially established the ICT, which has faced longstanding criticism from the UN and human rights groups for being used as a means to eliminate her political opponents.

With the ICT now being coopted by her rivals and likely used in a similar way, it is unlikely that India will execute the arrest warrant, with a refusal likely to result in strained relations. Moreover, after the breakdown of the Hasina government, which had traditionally been an advocate of secularism, there were multiple reports of attacks on Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.

If India’s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party-led government refuses to acknowledge the arrest warrant, there is a realistic possibility of escalating sectarian violence in Bangladesh against the Hindus. Conversely, if India honours the arrest warrant and Hasina is returned for trial, there is a strong likelihood of civil unrest being instigated by her Awami League supporters. This could further destabilise the country, almost certainly leading to violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces.

Recent episodes of unrest in Bangladesh have resulted in widespread transportation disruptions, internet and mobile phone shutdowns, the introduction of curfews and major supply chain disruptions.

On 23 October, The US Embassy in Sri Lanka issued an alert relating to “credible information” of a plot to target tourists in the popular Arugum Bay surfing resort in the southeast of the country. The embassy has urged all US citizens to avoid the area until further notice.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The issuing of a terror alert by the US State Department is relatively rare and typically reserved for situations where credible intelligence indicates a significant and imminent threat. The Arugum Bay area has become popular with Israeli tourists and the alert is likely predicated on a threat directly targeting Israelis. However, forms of attack such as small arms fire or improvised explosive devices (IEDs) pose a serious and indiscriminate threat to anyone at the resort.

The last major terrorist attack to occur in Sri Lanka was the April 2019 Easter Sunday bombings, a coordinated series of suicide bombings targeting three churches and three luxury hotels across the country, including in Colombo, Negombo, and Batticaloa. These attacks killed over 260 and injured an estimated 500 people. The bombings were conducted by local extremists of the National Thowheeth Jama’ath militant group but with alleged links to the Islamic State (IS).

The war in the Middle East has almost certainly resulted in higher rates of local radicalisation, which was likely already exacerbated by a series of anti-Muslim policies introduced in the aftermath of the 2019 bombings, including a burqa ban and the forced closure of Islamic schools. There is a realistic possibility that the attackers may react to the issuing of a terror alert and adapt their plans. The terrorists could become more cautious to avoid detection or alter their attack plans, potentially targeting a less secure target to gauge the effectiveness of the security services or nominating a new target outside of the indicated area.

Bangladeshi students storm presidential palace.

On 22 October, students in Bangladesh began demanding the resignation of President Mohammed Shahabuddin after he made controversial comments over Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. Protestors attempted to storm the presidential palace in Dhaka, resulting in clashes with police, multiple injuries and many arrests. The demonstrators accuse the president of collaborating with Ms Hasina’s “fascist regime”, whose legacy continues to drive tensions and unrest in the country.

Japan to hold snap elections on 27 October.

Japan is set to hold snap general elections on 27 October after a series of political scandals and the resignation of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, creating a volatile political environment which may threaten the economy. Current indications are that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito, are likely to maintain their majority but could lose up to 50 seats. However, the LDP could benefit from increased tensions with China and North Korea, due to its traditionally stronger stance on defence.

IED targets government office in Kabul, Afghanistan.

On 23 October, an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated outside of a Taliban office issuing ID cards in the Pamir Cinema district of Kabul, leading to at least two deaths and multiple injuries. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack but the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has been behind similar attacks in Kabul since the Taliban took power in 2021, who are likely attempting to undermine the Taliban’s rule with increased attacks in the capital.

North Korean leader visits country’s missile bases.

In a further provocation to South Korea and its Western allies, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited the country’s missile bases to ensure that his forces are ready to conduct “strategic deterrence”, a term that almost certainly refers to North Korea’s developing nuclear capabilities. The dictator also warned of the US nuclear threat to his country which justifies North Korea’s force readiness. The visit comes amid heightened tensions, with North Korea recently demolishing infrastructure on the Korean border, increasing the readiness of its artillery, amending the constitution and deploying troop to Russia to assist with the war in Ukraine.

US approves military package for Japan.

The US State Department has approved a foreign military sale to Japan, which includes Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) Block 2B Tactical Missiles and related equipment, estimated at USD 360 million. The package will enable Japan to bolster its area defence capabilities and protect critical air and sea lines of communication in East Asia and the Western Pacific. Japan’s procurement is almost certainly in response to increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and the South China Sea and to help counter the developing military alliance of North Korea, China, and Russia, the latter two of which have territorial disputes with Tokyo.

Taiwan President visits frontline islands.

President Lai Ching-te visited the Kinmen islands on 24 October to celebrate the anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou, which enabled Taiwan to retain the islands after the Chinese Civil War. The move will almost certainly be lambasted by China as a direct provocation given the island’s proximity to mainland China and the symbolic importance of the anniversary. The visit is likely a response to China’s large-scale war games around Taiwan but will highly likely provoke the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into conducting similar large-scale exercises, the frequency and scale of which are making it challenging to distinguish between routine military drills and what could be an actual invasion.

Chinese Coast Guard vessel twice expelled from Indonesian waters.

A vessel belonging to the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) was twice expelled from Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea, some 1500km away from mainland China near the Natuna Islands. The vessel was likely attempting to disrupt a survey commissioned by the Indonesia state energy firm, Pertamina and follows the recent inauguration of President Prabowo Subianto. CCG incursions into Indonesian waters are relatively uncommon compared to their frequent activities in the waters of the Philippines and Vietnam. The CCG is primarily deployed to enforce Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, and often acts aggressively in areas rich in undersea resources like oil, gas, and rare metals. A major Pertamina discovery will almost certainly result in an increase in CCG activity.  

Severe flooding and disruption in Bengaluru, India.

On 23 October, the Indian city of Bengaluru suffered severe disruption as a result of unprecedented rainfall, estimated to be the heaviest in three decades. Widespread flooding has damaged much infrastructure, shut off roads and even resulted in a fatal building collapse. The extent of the flooding is almost certainly indicative of unplanned rapid urban development and environmental degradation, which includes the loss of almost 90 per cent of the city’s green space in less than four decades- a trend that has been mirrored across India.

Tropical Strom Trami causes at least 65 fatalities in the Philippines.

Tropical Storm Trami, known in the Philippines as Kristine, made landfall in northern Luzon, Philippines on 23 October. The storm resulted in at least 65 fatalities across the Philippines, primarily due to floods and landslides. 33 of the deaths occurred due to landslides in the Batangas province south of Manila. The storm affected more than 3.3 million people, with approximately 288,000 individuals still in government shelters as of 25 October. In the aftermath, over 400,000 households in regions including Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and parts of Metro Manila remain without power, as efforts to restore electricity continue. Despite the storm’s exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 24 October, it is likely that the storm will loop back next week.