The final of the European Football Championship, between Spain and England, is scheduled to take place on 14 July, while the final of the Copa America, between Argentina and Colombia will occur on 15 July. Due to the nature of the events and their global reach, the matches may result in limited traffic disruptions.

The Islamic holiday of Ashura takes place on 16-17 July. The holiday is not a major one for Sunnis, while it has a particularly notable value for Shias, for whom it is associated with the death of Husayn ibn Ali and, in general, with martyrdom for the faith. Likely due to the sectarian differences linked with the holiday (and its importance to the development of Shia religious identity) attacks targeting Shia communities have occurred on Ashura, the latest taking place in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 2015.

Canada has announced plans to acquire up to 12 new submarines to strengthen its Arctic deterrence at the NATO 75th anniversary summit. Ottawa has cited the need to improve its submarine capabilities to covertly detect and deter maritime threats, to counter challenges from Russia and China in the region and to secure future shipping routes in the Arctic Ocean.

The Department of National Defence indicated that the Royal Canadian Navy’s current inventory of four ageing Victoria-class submarines is becoming obsolete and too costly to maintain. The new submarines will be diesel-electric rather than nuclear-powered and are capable of operating under the ice.

The acquisition also forms part of a broader effort aimed at increasing defence spending to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2030.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The timing of the procurement is likely an attempt to deflect from Canada’s sustained failure to meet NATO defence spending pledges of two per cent of GDP, a failure that may soon be emphasised under a potential Trump presidency who has historically lambasted NATO members for not meeting this requirement. However, Canada’s primary reason to improve and triple its current submarine fleet is to protect the hard-to-defend Arctic waters such as the Northwest Passage, with some estimates suggesting that climate change and retreating ice cover will turn the Arctic Ocean into the most efficient shipping route between Europe and East Asia by 2050.

Russia has long coveted the idea of a “Northern Sea Route” which China endorses as part of its “Ice Silk Road”. These maritime trade routes are considerably shorter than the Suez route and require less fuel expenses, currently entail no expensive transit tolls and face a negligible threat from piracy or militant groups. Moreover, Russia has competing claims with Canada in the Arctic, with both countries claiming the Lomonosov Ridge as an extension of their respective continental shelves. China, which hasn’t been so bold as to refer to itself as an Arctic power, published a 2018 White Paper wherein it claimed to be a “near-Arctic state”, citing its right to conduct scientific research and environmental protection.

The Arctic’s potential for trade, abundance in hydrocarbons, mineral wealth, fishing and potential military advantages is attracting both Moscow and Beijing, who tentatively support each other to counter the West. Both countries have also deployed civilian-flagged oceanographic research vessels to the area to collect important bathymetric and hydrographic data such as water column profiles, seafloor mapping, depth measurements, sound velocity profiles, ambient noise levels and much more. This data can inform genuine civilian scientific research but is likely “dual-purpose” research that can be used to expand and improve submarine operations.

In the long term, this may help them assert claims, protect shipping routes, improve their submarine-based strike capabilities, improve intelligence gathering and gain a strategic edge over NATO in an area that will almost certainly become increasingly important in a potential future conflict. Russia and China may also exploit Arctic access to better understand North American undersea critical national infrastructure such as internet cables and gas pipelines- the sabotage of which is highly deniable and likely features as part of their sub-threshold “grey zone” activity that can cause huge economic loss without triggering a kinetic response.

However, Canada’s decision to procure diesel-electric submarines will likely play into the hands of Russia and China. The Russian Federation Navy (RFN) and China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine fleets are becoming increasingly nuclear-powered, providing them a significant advantage in terms of stealth and endurance.

On 8 July, Jimmy “Barbecue” Charizier, leader of Haiti’s largest gang network “G9” and seen as a de facto spokesperson for the country’s criminal syndicates, declared that his group would initiate a “war” against the UN-backed “invaders” — referring to the 400 Kenyan police officers deployed to Haiti to help quell ongoing gang-related violence.

The Kenyan forces have begun carrying out the first series of operations in Port-au-Prince, retaking control of key buildings including the country’s largest hospital. Unconfirmed reports state that the gangs attempted a “counterattack” to retake the building on 10 July.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The gangs almost certainly maintain the strategic objective of extending the period of lawlessness in the country as it allows for them to carry out illegal actions, including running smuggling routes to the US and the Caribbean, without any credible opposition. It is highly unlikely that G9 represents or even seeks to represent a political alternative to the ruling government. Still, the somewhat “anti-imperialist” rhetoric used by the gangs may be an effort to gather popular support and possibly discourage collaboration with Kenyan forces.

In recent months, Haitian gangs have increased attacks on local institutions and on foreign humanitarian workers, including by carrying out targeted killings of American missionaries. Such actions are highly likely meant to force the civilian population to rely on gangs for the provision of basic goods and services.

The capture of the largest hospital in Port-au-Prince may indicate that the joint Kenyan-Haitian police operations are seeking to restore popular confidence in legal administrative rule through the symbolic creation of pockets of “normalcy”. The gangs will likely respond to such efforts by increasing attacks on institutions and individuals involved in humanitarian efforts, including foreigners, to deny the police an opportunity to carry out normalisation efforts.

“La Niña” is a weather pattern that can develop as part of multi-year cycles and follows El Niño. It is marked by cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Usually, the cycle involving El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral period (the cycle is known as ENSO, or “El Niño-Southern Oscillation”) lasts between two and seven years.

Solace Global Assessment: 

La Niña is associated with an increased frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean. In South America, La Niña can cause heavier rains, possibly leading to floods in countries such as Brazil. However, the weather pattern has also important implications for the APAC region.

There is a realistic possibility that generally lower air pressures in the western Pacific will drive increased rain and flooding in northern Australia. In Southeast and South Asia, La Niña is likely to provoke a more prolonged and heavier monsoon season. While this may stimulate the local economy by increasing crop yields in India and neighbouring countries, increasing rains may also result in floods and landslides, especially in areas victims of deforestation or those with little drainage infrastructure.

La Niña’s positive impacts on South American and South Asian agriculture may reverberate in Africa, possibly resulting in a medium-term improvement in the influx of grain, rice, and other cereals to food-insecure countries. This, in turn, may lead to alterations in local risk profiles where there was previously food insecurity.

La Niña may also cause a decrease in rainfall volumes in the Pacific Islands, possibly leading to localised droughts. In addition, studying La Niña’s impact will likely allow researchers to better understand how the ENSO is impacting, and being affected by, climate change.

Biden Reaffirms 2024 Candidacy Amidst Health Speculations and Criticism

US President Joe Biden reiterated that he will be the Democratic Party’s candidate in the 2024 presidential elections amid speculation about his health. The statement, on 5 July, followed a poor performance at the first presidential debate with Republican opponent and former President Donald Trump and calls from party insiders to replace the incumbent Biden with another Democrat. On 11 July, Biden was further challenged after his poor performance at the NATO summit which was criticised by Democrat party members and supporters.

Argentine President Milei Skips Mercosur Meeting

Argentine President Milei skipped a Mercosur trade block meeting in Paraguay and instead headed to Brazil on 7 July, where he met former President Bolsonaro. Milei’s decision to attend an anti-Socialism event in Rio de Janeiro, instead of meeting current President Lula, is likely meant to continue rallying support at home. At the same time, Milei’s constant diplomatic insults towards the leftist president of Brazil risk resulting in tangible negative effects on the two countries’ relations.e as usual.

Argentina’s Inflation Rate Rises to 5% in June

Argentina’s monthly inflation rate marginally increased to 5 per cent in June, ending a five-month streak of decreases. The increase is likely a result of revisions in utility rates. The development, albeit likely not particularly relevant to Argentina’s broader economic outlook, is likely to be widely reported on by local media and may drive further anti-government unrest.

Cuba Foils US-Sourced Arms Smuggling Plot

On 8 July, Cuban authorities announced they had foiled a plot to smuggle arms and ammunition from the United States into Cuba, detaining nearly three dozen people involved in a scheme to destabilise the government. The plot was first revealed in December when a Cuban man arrived from the US by jetski with weapons to recruit others for acts of violence. According to the Cuban authorities, a seven-month investigation exposed a broader plan involving at least 32 Cuban residents connected to a US-based group, La Nueva Nación Cubana.

Havana has accused the US of allowing the accused to act with impunity in the US, with the US State Department responding by stating that it only prosecutes based on US law- a development that will likely further strain relations between the two countries.

Deadly Heatwave Hits Western US

In the United States, at least 28 people have reportedly died because of an ongoing heatwave in California, Oregon and Arizona. 14 of these cases were in California. Over the past week, temperatures have persistently exceeded 38 degrees Celsius across the American West, with multiple record highs recorded across the region. A record high of 48.8 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) in Las Vegas was recorded on 7 July.

Officials have indicated that many of the victims were elderly or homeless and that the number of deaths is not exceptionally high for the region and therefore not yet a cause for alarm. However, in part aided by improved data collection and classification methods, heat-related deaths have been steadily increasing in recent years, a trend which is likely to continue as global warming increases both the intensity and regularity of heat waves.

Pantanal Fires Devastate Nearly 800,000 Hectares

Reporting from Brazil indicates that nearly 800,000 hectares have now been burned in the Pantanal, the world’s largest wetland and one of the most biodiverse areas globally. This region, spanning 16.9 million hectares and also encompassing parts of Bolivia and Paraguay, supports a rich diversity of flora and fauna, much of which is endangered.

The Pantanal is not only crucial for its biodiversity but also home to many indigenous communities who rely on the land and its resources. The recent fires have already claimed livestock, a vital asset for these communities, which may escalate tensions and unrest, potentially pressuring the central government for assistance.

Undisclosed US defence sources have reported that US military bases were recently placed on Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “Charlie,” indicating a high alert status. This response comes in light of credible threats suggesting potential sabotage attacks by Russian-backed actors. Intelligence sources indicated that Russian proxies were planning attacks against US military personnel and facilities across multiple European countries.

The planned attacks were purportedly designed to replicate a series of recent successful or disrupted attacks in the region. In April, two German-Russian nationals were apprehended for allegedly plotting arson and bomb attacks under Russian direction. Similarly, in March, several individuals were arrested and charged with conspiring with Russian intelligence to commit arson against a Ukrainian-linked warehouse. Additionally, there have been numerous incidents of suspicious fires and explosions in countries where Russian intelligence historically maintains strong influence, such as the Baltics, Poland, and the Czech Republic.

Solace Global Assessment: 

These attacks are almost certainly part of Russia’s broader strategy of “grey zone” or “hybrid” warfare against the West, motivated by its support for Ukraine. Despite significant military setbacks in Ukraine, Russia’s foreign intelligence agencies like the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) are likely operational and focused on identifying and targeting logistical support for Kyiv.

With kinetic strikes against facilities supporting Ukraine not feasible, Russia appears to be relying on proxy groups to carry out sabotage acts. This approach allows the Kremlin to maintain plausible deniability and reduce the risk of direct escalation. By leveraging proxy groups, nationalist elements in Europe, and potentially criminal networks, Russia aims to disrupt weapon deliveries to Ukraine, deter NATO support, and sow division within the alliance.

However, Russian proxy groups likely face challenges accessing highly secure military bases or weapons facilities. Therefore, they may target less secure infrastructure such as factories producing non-lethal aid, communication equipment, or vulnerable parts of Ukraine’s logistics network like railway lines.

As the conflict persists, Russia may escalate its asymmetric activities. This could involve intensifying disinformation campaigns to stoke divisions in the West, expanding maritime capabilities for deniable undersea sabotage against critical infrastructure, or increasing cyber operations.

Notably, Russia has refrained from conducting sabotage on US soil, potentially due to the risk of severe escalation. Yet, concerns arise from an influx of illegal Russian immigrants into the US, raising fears of Kremlin exploitation to establish networks capable of mimicking European-style asymmetric tactics. This could include targeting facilities associated with Ukraine on American soil if tensions escalate significantly.

In summary, Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics continue to evolve, leveraging proxies and asymmetric methods to achieve strategic objectives while managing international perceptions and minimizing direct military confrontation with Western powers.

US intelligence has stated that it discovered a Russian plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, the CEO of the major German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. The assassination plot was reportedly in advanced stages and was part of a broader effort to target defence industry executives providing support for Ukraine’s military campaign against Russia. US intelligence reportedly warned the German security services which then protected Papperger.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Rheinmetall is one of the world’s largest arms producers which manufactures vital conventional weapon systems such as artillery shells, tank munitions and armoured vehicles. Rheinmetall’s arms have been used extensively in the war in Ukraine and the company has plans to establish factories within Ukraine’s borders, making the company a primary target for Russia.

The plot to assassinate Rheinmetall’s CEO was likely sanctioned by the Kremlin to deter privately-run arms companies from providing assistance to Ukraine and likely falls under Moscow’s wider hybrid warfare strategy. However, unlike Russia’s sabotage campaign, the Kremlin would unlikely be able to rely on proxy groups within Europe due to the sensitivity and complexity of such an operation.

Russian intelligence has a long history of assassinating Russian dissidents throughout Europe and has traditionally escaped with only minor repercussions such as the expulsion of diplomats, many of whom were suspected of being undercover intelligence agents. The assassination of a European executive would be a marked escalation but one Russia is likely willing to pursue given the circumstances and its potential to deter future assistance.

The Russian military has sustained huge losses on the battlefield, Kyiv has recently been authorised to conduct limited strikes into mainland Russia and the Kremlin is struggling to counter Ukraine’s ever-developing asymmetric capabilities such as drones and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). Moreover, the success of sanctions on Russia has been questionable and has driven Moscow closer to the West’s adversaries, providing the West with few effective deterrents against Russia’s increasingly emboldened grey zone activity.

Private arms companies supporting Kyiv have frequently visited Ukraine, a detail widely covered by the media. If Russia is conducting an assassination campaign against private arms companies, there is a high likelihood that it will aim to target them in Ukraine, given the more permissive operational environment and the opportunity to attribute the attacks to a pro-Russian proxy involved in the war. 

Having been operational for only 20 days over the last two months, the US-built pier in Gaza is set to be dismantled in “short order”. Meanwhile, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has been conducting operations in Gaza City, particularly Shujaiya. On 10 July, the IDF urged all Gaza City residents to evacuate south.

Both Hamas and Israel have been accused of stalling ceasefire negotiations, and there have been reports that the Hamas political leadership is considering moving from Qatar to Iraq. In Lebanon, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in a 10 July speech projected confidence against the potential of a major IDF offensive and indicated that Hezbollah would accept Hamas’ decision on the outcome of their negotiations, ceasing cross-border operations if a ceasefire is reached. On 11 July, drone strikes launched from Lebanon hit northern Israel, killing one IDF reservist.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The US-built and military-run Gaza humanitarian pier operation, which cost USD 230 million, has been plagued by two key challenges since it first started operating on 17 May. Firstly, inclement weather has resulted in operations being suspended at the pier multiple times. Secondly, the onshore distribution of the aid has been considerably hampered by what aid organisations consider to be intolerable security risks for its workers. In its two-month history, the pier has only delivered a single day’s worth of pre-war aid into Gaza. The pier was met with suspicion by both Israelis and Palestinians, the former due to the pier’s perceived role as a US reaction to endemic humanitarian concerns in Gaza, and the latter due to the US’s role as Israel’s primary military ally. Overall, it is highly likely that the pier, marred by problems, has failed in offsetting the Palestinian perception of the US as being fundamentally pro-Israel.

The IDF’s operations in Gaza City over the past week, in both Shujaiya and Tel al-Hawa, reveal the continued presence of Hamas in northern Gaza. The IDF has previously claimed such areas had been cleared of fighters. However, the current operations have been notably intense and this is only the second during the conflict that evacuation instructions have been leafleted across Gaza City. 250,000 people are estimated to be in Gaza City, and it is unlikely that the new evacuation orders will be followed en masse.  Most of the city’s previous population that were more willing or able to relocate have done so already, and some residents have indicated that would not feel any safer in the south, where Israel has allegedly ignored humanitarian zones. While ceasefire negotiations are ongoing in Doha, key issues remain divisive.

Supported by recent claims from Hamas spokespeople regarding the regeneration of combatants and materiel in previously “cleared” areas, Hamas likely remains confident that they are maintaining sufficient combat effectiveness across the Strip to continue pursuing its demands in the negotiations. Hamas has been resistant to any deal that does not commit Israel to a permanent ceasefire and full IDF withdrawal, while Israel has objected to terms which might enable Hamas to continue holding hostages and indefinitely halt IDF operations. The IDF will likely be unable to compel Hamas to accept Israel’s strategic objectives coercively with military force, as long as Hamas remains combat-effective across the Strip.

On 6 July, the three junta-led states of the Sahel region – Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso – signed a “confederation treaty” at the first summit of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). All three junta governments came to power after 2020, and, in January 2024, all three removed their countries from the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The regional bloc said it was “disappointed” by the lack of rapprochement and called for further “reconciliation” efforts.

Solace Global Assessment: 

All three juntas have adopted somewhat convergent foreign policies characterised by a rejection of ties with Western governments, and instead increased relations with Russia.

The three juntas are particularly plagued by a growing threat posed by Islamist insurgents, with the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), among other fundamentalist groups, gaining considerable ground in areas where government control is tenuous (this is especially the case in Niger, where the eastern border region of the Chad basin continues to provide a sanctuary for insurgent groups).

The joint counterterrorism initiative launched by the three states in March is unlikely to pose a sufficient obstacle to the insurgents, and it is almost certain that the announcement of the latest agreement will be followed by further deals with Moscow.

The worsening in the relations between AES and ECOWAS, with the latter likely to impose further rounds of sanctions following the failure of the latest rapprochement efforts, may benefit regional violent extremist organisations (VEOs), which likely aim to destabilise the juntas to establish alternative administrative organs.

Still, ISWAP and other Islamist groups likely have a long-term strategic interest in establishing a presence in the comparatively wealthier coastal states that border the junta ones, including Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.

The completion of the withdrawal of US troops from a key base for counterterrorism in Niger overlapped with the AES’ announcement of the treaty. The withdrawal of Western troops could result in a more marked regionalisation of the Sahel region, with Washington likely seeking to increase efforts to court coastal powers.  

On 8 July, a UN report indicated that at least 3,000 Rwandan troops are directly fighting the DRC’s army alongside the M23 group, a militia operating in the eastern DRC that is led by ethnic Tutsis. Moreover, the report states that the Ugandan government is at least enabling M23 operations by granting M23 and Rwandan troops free access to its territory. The M23 group is mostly active in the North Kivu province which borders both Rwanda and Uganda and is rich in natural resources including gold, diamonds, coltan, and cassiterite.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The M23 militia likely represents a strategic asset for Kigali, as the group is directly involved in the informal trade of rare earth minerals and other resources to developed countries through its territorial control over DRC mining areas. Kigali, which responded to the report by accusing the DRC of funding ethnic Hutu insurgents, almost certainly exercises much control over the group, and the presence of large numbers of Rwandan troops in the M23’s ranks further demonstrates this point.

Possibly, the recent escalation is a reflection of Rwanda’s improving position on the international stage, marked by increasingly closer relations with Western states. Uganda’s seeming acquiescence to M23 troop movements is not necessarily proof of direct government support for the militia, but may rather reflect localised support, possibly of Ugandan officials benefitting from M23 operations, or a simple lack of administrative and security assets that would allow Ugandan forces to efficiently control their borders.

Much of the southern border area between Uganda, Rwanda and North Kivu is sparsely populated and characterised by rough and uneven terrain, with the border marked by a string of dormant volcanoes, and there is a high likelihood that militia troops moving in the direction of Goma can evade government forces with relative ease.

In late June, M23 seized the strategic town of Kanyabayoinga, North Kivu, which is a transport hub to northern DRC. Currently, DRC forces, which are also dealing with crises in the western border regions, as well as constant threats of disaggregation and rebellion (as testified by the recent failed coup) are likely worse equipped than M23 forces and are almost certainly unable to effectively prevent further advances.

The ongoing challenges faced by the DRC’s forces are likely driving the delay in the withdrawal of UN forces from the country. After asking the UN to fast-track the exit of peacekeepers from the country, the government asked, on 9 July, to pause the second phase of the withdrawal process, citing “Rwanda’s continued aggression in North Kivu”. Currently, the MONUSCO mission maintains a 17,000-strong contingent. On 25 June, its South Kivu region centre was disbanded.

There is a realistic possibility that the scaling back of the UN deployment will produce a localised power vacuum in the region, allowing for regional powers to more actively pursue their ambitions in the eastern DRC. So far, local Congolese rebel groups, mostly the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), have controlled and allowed foreign access to mining areas, often to the benefit of Europe-based suppliers, or suppliers from regional powers including South Africa.

The M23’s advances could allow for powers with a lesser footprint in the area, including China, which is reportedly engaged in illegal gold extraction operations in the bordering region of South Kivu, to establish new informal extraction and shipping networks, possibly playing out broader geopolitical rivalries.

UK Labour Government Announces Moderate Agenda with National Wealth Fund and Policy Reversals

The new Labour government of the UK announced its first set of measures of its five-year legislature. They include the creation of a National Wealth Fund, the withdrawal of the controversial Rwanda deportation plan, and the scrapping of a ban on onshore wind farms.

The new Labour government has not promised particularly drastic reforms, instead concentrating on a growth-centric moderate plan marked by targeted spending. Early data suggests that the government’s start has been welcomed warmly by foreign investors, who are likely increasingly looking to the UK as more stable than its continental counterparts, and possibly the US, where the Trump campaign continues to gain traction.

Read our UK Election review here.

French National Assembly Elections: New Popular Front Wins Second Round, Coalition Government Uncertain

The second round of the French National Assembly elections was won by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), although they did not win enough seats to form a majority. Currently, the parliament is divided into three blocs, none of which have the seats to form a government.

There is a high likelihood of further protests as President Emmanuel Macron seeks to assemble a viable coalition. In particular, unrest is likely to be driven by the French Unbowed (LFI) party, which, despite receiving the highest number of votes among the NFP members, is unlikely to be included in a new coalition government.

Read our French Election Review here.

Catalan Independence Protest March Planned in Barcelona, 13 July

Activists affiliated with the Catalan National Assembly plan to conduct a protest march through central Barcelona on 13 July. The purpose of the demonstration is to condemn the Spanish application of the Amnesty Law and show support for Calalunya’s independence. There will likely be an increase in security forces within the vicinity of the demonstration and travel disruptions between Urquinaona Square and Saint Jaume Square are to be anticipated.

G7 Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Calabria: Security Tightened Amidst Protest Concerns

The G7 Trade Ministers’ Meeting will be held in Villa San Giovanni and Reggio Calabria in the Italian region of Calabria on 16-17 July 2024. The meeting will almost certainly involve heightened security measures and has the capacity to attract protest movements.

Russia Introduces Progressive Income Tax

The Russian government has passed new legislation introducing progressive income tax rates that will affect around 3.2 per cent of working Russians. The Ministry of Finance projects that the tax will boost its 2025 inflows by 533 billion rubles (USD 6 billion). The move likely reflects Moscow’s prediction of a protracted war in Ukraine, and Putin’s recent turn towards a more statist economic policy.

EU Suspends Georgia’s Accession Process Over “Foreign Agents” Bill

EU officials announced on 9 July that, following the approval of the controversial and authoritarian “foreign agents” bill, the accession process of Georgia has been suspended, leading to pauses in the provision of military aid through the European Peace Facility (EPF). The government in Tbilisi will likely use the announcement to redouble efforts to quash dissent and move the country closer to Moscow’s orbit.

Modi-Putin Summit Highlights India-Russia Relations Amidst Global Tensions

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the Kremlin on 9 July, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite Delhi’s historic commitment to non-alignment, Russia represents a vital supplier of cheap oil for India, more so after Russia’s trade with the West decreased due to the growing sanctions regime.

Moreover, Indian officials likely seek to appeal to Russia for a change of stance regarding the large influx of Indian “foreign fighters” joining Russian forces in Ukraine in exchange for promises of large pay, and sometimes even following coercion.

For Putin, the summit is highly likely a diplomatic success, as Russia continues to herald the BRICS group as a possible alternative to Western summits and claims to have resisted Western attempts to isolate it following its invasion of Ukraine.

Syrian Parliamentary Election Expected to Maintain Status Quo Under Assad’s Ba’ath Party

The Syrian parliamentary election is set to be held on 15 July with a victory for President Bashar al-Assad’s Ba’ath Party-dominated National Progressive Front almost certain after years of electoral reform and vote rigging that favours the incumbent government. With no major political change forecast it is highly unlikely that there will be any positive steps towards peace in Syria, which has now experienced over 13 years of civil war.

Moderate Candidate Pezeshkian Wins Iranian Presidential Election

The reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian defeated his hardline opponent in the second round of the Iranian presidential elections. Pezeshkian was likely aided by an increase in voter turnout in the second round, although overall participation remains lower than in past elections.

It is unlikely that Pezeshkian will usher in fundamental reforms of Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. However, the new moderate candidate has already sent signals of willingness to negotiate with the West, including by choosing advisors who already participated in the Rouhani government, which saw the establishment of the Nuclear Deal.

Moody’s Downgrades Kenya’s Debt Rating Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

Moody’s Ratings has further downgraded Kenya’s debt rating after protests forced the Ruto administration to abandon its tax hikes. The reversal of tax rises has resulted in a major decrease in violent demonstrations and looting.

However, President Ruto has warned of huge consequences for not managing the country’s debt and has not ruled out additional cuts or tax rise moves that are likely to fuel further unrest whilst tensions remain high.

Adding to the ongoing uncertainty, on 11 July Ruto dismissed almost the entirety of his cabinet, likely in a last-ditch effort to improve public support.

Rwanda Prepares for Elections Amidst Criticism and Predictions of Kagame’s Fourth Term

General elections are to be held in Rwanda on 15 July to elect the president and members of the Chamber of Deputies. Incumbent president Paul Kagame will likely extend his 23-year presidency by securing a fourth term and the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) retain its majority in parliament.

Kagame has faced criticism for leading a repressive state accused of widespread human rights abuses and the suppression of political opposition, evidenced by nine candidates being denied the opportunity to campaign.

The election results will likely trigger nationwide unrest, which could turn deadly, as seen during a crush at an election rally in June that resulted in one death.

Trump May Decrease Intelligence Sharing with European NATO Members if Reelected

According to a senior NATO official and three European officials, speaking to journalists anonymously, Donald Trump is considering decreasing levels of intelligence sharing with European NATO members, should he win the US presidential election. Under Biden’s administration, intelligence sharing between the US and NATO allies has increased – the provision of US intelligence is considered to have been vital in countering Russia in Ukraine, as well as foiling their clandestine activities in other European countries, and some senior former intelligence figures have expressed grave concern at the impact diminished intelligence sharing will have on European security.

Trump has long-standing frustrations with NATO members not meeting the 2 per cent of GDP defence spending guideline, as well as advocating a more isolationist foreign policy in general. There are, however, valid concerns regarding the level of Russian penetration in various European NATO member-states, as well as the reliability of partners such as Turkey and Hungary.

Additionally, it is unlikely that such limits on intelligence sharing would apply to NATO partners such as the UK and Canada, who engage in advanced intelligence cooperation through separate intelligence alliances such as Five Eyes.

Belarus and China Launch Joint Military Drills Near Polish Border

Belarus and China started joint military drills on 10 July near the Polish border under what is being termed as “Exercise Attacking Falcon”. The exercise will last until 19 July and is almost certainly strategic messaging aimed at NATO, which is concurrently holding its 75th-anniversary summit. The exercise comes after Belarus joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), suggesting an increasing military collaboration between the two authoritarian regimes and reflecting broader efforts by Beijing and Moscow to promote a multi-polar global order.

Houthis Resume Red Sea Attack

The Houthis conducted at least four attacks in the Red Sea over two days on 9-10 July after a ten-day hiatus of attacks. The brief cessation of attacks was potentially linked to the departure of the Nimitz-class USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier, which likely allowed the militant group time to regroup. The Houthis have been using a layered attack of drones and missiles to bypass coalition air defence and maximise success rates.

Of note, the US military also claims to have destroyed five uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) on 12 July, perhaps indicating an increased reliance on this capability due to its low cost, civilian profile and smaller radar cross-section which makes it harder to detect.

Iraq Sentences Wife of IS Leader al-Baghdadi to Death for Crimes Against Yazidis

On 10 July, an Iraqi court sentenced to death one of the wives of former Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi for crimes against Yazidi women and girls captured and abused by the jihadist group. A court statement did not directly name the defendant but it is expected that she is Asma Mohammed, who was arrested in 2018 in Turkey and later extradited to Iraq. There is a realistic possibility that IS will conduct reprisal attacks against the Iraqi government in response to the ruling.

Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Army Abducts 100, Including Students, for Ransom

Reports emerging on 5 July indicate that at least 100 people, including students, were kidnapped the previous week in the Oromia region of Ethiopia. Gunmen stopped three buses approximately 120km north of the capital Addis Ababa, forcing the victims to exit the buses before being abducted.

The attackers have been identified as belonging to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) rebel group, which the UN has accused of targeted killings, property destruction and rape as part of their efforts to establish an independent Oromo state.

The abductions are likely part of a wider effort to obtain ransom to fund future operations against the Ethiopian government in the Oromo region, and if successful will likely inspire an increase in this tactic.

Wildfires in Attica, Greece Cause Evacuations and Property Damage

Wildfires broke out in Patras and Menidi, in the west of the Greek region of Attica, leading to evacuations and the destruction of at least one residential property and damage to a paediatric hospital. The fires reportedly started from uncleared plots of land, where flammable materials including dried wood and grass had accumulated.

Due to the currently hot and dry temperatures, fires tend to spread quickly and easily reignite even after being extinguished. While the current wildfire season in Greece has not yet reached the severity of last year’s, there is a realistic possibility of further episodes due to the prolonged extreme heat.

Burkina Faso Considers Criminalising Homosexuality, Stirring International Concerns

On 10 July, the Burkinabe military government reviewed a series of draft laws, including a proposal to criminalise homosexuality. Same-sex relations have been legal in Burkina Faso since its independence, with most former French colonies inheriting colonial penal codes that criminalised such acts. While this move is unlikely to face any significant domestic opposition from Burkina Faso’s conservative Muslim and Christian populations, it may provoke international backlash.

Cape Town Storms Destroy 1,000 Homes in Informal Settlements

Nearly 1,000 homes located in informal settlements of Cape Town, South Africa, have been destroyed following days of strong winds, caused by overlapping cold fronts, and the bursting of two riverbanks on 9 July.

A level 8 (out of 10) warning for disruptive rain was issued by local authorities for 10-11 July. The particularly severe impact of the storms is almost certainly linked to the lack of structural viability of many of the buildings in informal settlements, which, in Cape Town alone, house approximately 150,000 households.

Informal settlements, lacking proper drainage and sewage removal infrastructure, are especially at risk from waterborne diseases. Rain is set to continue for several days and authorities have warned of increased flooding, mudslides and rockfalls in the Cape Town, Drankenstein and Stellenbosch areas.

Rebel fighters belonging to the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF) claimed to have conducted a series of attacks against the Taliban across Afghanistan during the reporting period. Multiple NRF attacks have occurred outside of the traditional areas of operations for the resistance group, including several attacks in western Afghanistan in the provinces of Nimroz, Farah and Herat. The NRF also carried out multiple attacks in Kabul, which has largely been considered a safe haven for the Taliban since its recapture in 2021.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The NRF, also known as the Second Resistance, emerged in 2021 in response to the Taliban’s rapid takeover of much of Afghanistan. The NRF’s main stronghold is in the Panjshir Valley, located northeast of Kabul, where the Taliban have historically been unable to assert control but the group also has an established presence throughout northeast Afghanistan.

The NRF is comprised of vestiges from the Northern Alliance and several smaller groups which together pose the main organised resistance to the Taliban and include substantial elements from Afghanistan’s minority groups like the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks. The NRF is largely non-extremist and is led by Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, who led resistance efforts against the Soviets and Taliban in the 1980s and 1990s.

After managing to survive the Taliban’s attempts to control the entirety of Afghanistan, the NRF was largely limited to operating in the provinces close to the Panjshir Valley and the predominantly Tajik regions of northeastern Afghanistan. Attacks against the Taliban typically increase during the spring and summer fighting season but recent attacks outside of their traditional stronghold may suggest an increase in the NRF’s freedom of movement and operational capabilities.

In recent months there has been a spate of attacks in Afghanistan’s western provinces but also dozens in Kabul, presenting a major challenge to the Taliban’s credibility. However, in most of these attacks, the NRF has not sought to directly engage with the Taliban due to their numerical superiority and abundance of advanced weapons seized after the US withdrawal. With no external support, the NRF attacks will likely limit their attacks to harassment operations.

Nevertheless, escalating attacks outside NRF strongholds, particularly in Kabul, will likely compel the Taliban to respond, which may ultimately be the NRF’s objective. The Taliban, whose rule is partially sustained through fear, would look weak for failing to respond. An escalation of fighting between the Taliban and NRF would likely yield several negative consequences.

Firstly, it would likely lead to more civilian casualties, displacement, economic hardship, curtail the freedom of aid agencies and result in the further degradation of an already severe humanitarian situation. Secondly, the Taliban have been the most effective force in containing the Islamic State’s most active branch, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which has increasingly expanded its focus outside of Afghanistan.

ISKP would likely seek to exploit the overstretching of Taliban resources and the continued destabilisation of Afghanistan to expand its operations, recruit disaffected individuals, fuel propaganda campaigns and potentially even seize territory. In the long term, this could increase the threat from Afghanistan to neighbouring countries and further afield. The VEO has expanded its networks westward into Iran, Turkey and parts of Europe, pivoting from regional operations to focus on external attacks.

This shift has already been evidenced by the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow alongside a series of thwarted attacks in Western Europe.

On 10 July, Pakistani officials authorised the country’s main spy agency, the military-run Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to tap telephone calls and messages. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government has defended the move, stating that these new powers will only be used in criminal and terrorism investigations. Furthermore, the government has stressed that anyone abusing the law will face action and that the application of wiretapping will not infringe on people’s lives and privacy. However, numerous critics have lambasted the move, citing it as unconstitutional and an attack on civil liberties.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Considering the significant influence of the Pakistani military in national politics, it is highly probable that extensive electronic surveillance was already in place, as indicated by past leaks of conversations involving Imran Khan and other members of his Tehreek-e-Insaf party.

However, the government’s formal recognition of these powers is likely to legitimise the practice and lead to greater abuse, likely resulting in increased electronic surveillance of the opposition and an expanded role for the military in politics.

Wiretapping could be exploited to justify the apprehension of the media, activists and opposition members, which in turn may incite civil unrest within the country, as seen during the arrest of Imran Khan.

For foreign entities operating in Pakistan, the decision will likely increase exposure to both direct and indirect electronic surveillance, potentially leading to heightened risks of corporate espionage and the compromise of sensitive information.

Pakistan Temporarily Halts Deportation of Afghan Refugees

Pakistan announced on 10 July that it is temporarily suspending the forced deportation of Afghan refugees, allowing almost 1.5 million Afghans to stay another year in Pakistan if they have proper documentation. The decision follows a recent visit by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) which, alongside many other international observers, has condemned Islamabad for its often-violent anti-migrant crackdown which started in 2023. The crackdown has sparked fears over human rights abuses and increased rates of radicalisation within the Afghan border, a trend that could increase the threat of terrorism on both sides of the border.

India Plans Hydropower Expansion in Arunachal Prades

Indian government sources have stated that Delhi is planning to build 12 hydropower stations in the state of Arunachal Pradesh, a northeastern Himalayan region that is partly claimed by China. The move has an obvious economic rationale: India’s production of hydroelectric power has stagnated over the last decade, and the state has a large energy-generation potential. Nevertheless, the move is also highly likely intended to increase India’s security and administrative footprint in the region and decrease the chances of Chinese encroachment. There is a realistic possibility of diplomatic tensions between Delhi and Beijing if the plans are carried out.

Thailand Approves 200 New Senators

Thailand’s Election Commission has approved 200 new senators to replace the military-appointed upper house, potentially complicating governance for the ruling Pheu Thai party. Although the new senate won’t vote on the prime minister, it retains the authority to vet laws and appoint key officials, reflecting a shift towards conservative-royalist interests and signalling continued political polarisation within Thailand.

South Korea Reverses Decision on Striking Doctors’ Licences

The South Korean government reversed its plans to retract the medical licences of striking junior doctors. More than 10,000 doctors are currently on strike due to government plans to boost medical school admissions. The move is likely an attempt at enticing the striking doctors to return to work, but it is unlikely that it will succeed, as it fails to address their fundamental grievances.

Fatal Shooting in New Caledonia Amidst Unrest Over Electoral Changes

On 10 July, French police in New Caledonia fatally shot an alleged gunman, bringing the death toll to 10 following nearly two months of unrest in the French Pacific territory. Protestors have continued to block roads, commit arson and loot after fears that changes to the electoral roll would reduce the chances of the indigenous Kanak people to secure independence. However, in the French parliamentary elections, indigenous Kanak Emmanuel Tjibaou became the first pro-independence candidate to win a seat in nearly four decades, a development that may help to quell unrest.

Political Leader Killed in Tamil Nadu Sparks Controversy

In the Tamil Nadu region of India, a state leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was killed by unknown assailants on 5 July. Early police reports claim that the killing was in retaliation for a crime-related dispute. BSP is a party advocating for the interests of Scheduled Castes – the disadvantaged groups that, combined, constitute India’s demographic majority. The party decided to run alone in the 2024 elections, and suffered a complete collapse, losing all of its seats. BSP activists have rejected the official version of events, and have instead alleged that the killing was a political act.

Balochistan Liberation Front Reports 108 Attacks in Occupied Balochistan

The Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) has released a report detailing its operations from January to June, highlighting 108 attacks across Pakistan-occupied Balochistan. The attacks targeted Pakistani forces, military installations, construction companies and a range of “collaborators”.  The BLF has vowed to continue its fight for Balochistan’s liberation and is likely using the report as a propaganda tool to undermine Islamabad as well as to bolster its recruitment efforts.

Baloch Liberation Army Releases Video Showing Attacks in Occupied Balochistan

Another pro-Balochistan independence group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) released a 21-minute video on their official media channel, Hakkal, showcasing 25 attacks against the Pakistani Army and infrastructure in Pakinstan-occupied Balochistan. The video has likely been released to increase recruitment and also depicts attacks on gas pipelines and convoys transporting minerals extracted from within Balochistan and exported to the rest of Pakistan, a major grievance for the Baloch people. The video shows BLA militants with advanced US weaponry, likely indicating a relationship with the Afghan Taliban who acquired similar arms after the rushed US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Indian Security Forces Conduct Operations in Jammu and Kashmir

Indian security forces in the contested region of Jammu and Kashmir have been conducting search operations in the border areas near Pakistan following reports of suspicious movements. The operations follow a series of attacks on Indian security services within a 48-hour period which have killed several Indian soldiers and have largely been concentrated in the south of the region. Whilst the line-of-control between India and Pakistan has been successful at denying militants entry to the area, the redeployment of troops to the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh in the aftermath of the 2020 standoff with China has likely given militants more freedom of movement which they are now exploiting.

Myanmar Rebels Fund Offensives with Drug Trafficking Across Thai Border

Thai media reported on 8 July that Myanmar rebels are funding their offensive operations against the country’s junta by “flooding” the Thai border with narcotics. The Thai border force reported seized more than 151,000,000 amphetamine pills during this fiscal year, almost four times the amount of the previous year, and more than 1,300 kilogrammes of crystal meth. The increased flow of narcotics towards Thailand could damage the rebels’ hopes to gather further international support, to match their ongoing battlefield successes. In the short term, the increased volume of drug trafficking could destabilise the Myanmar-Thai border, and drive an increase in organised crime in Thailand.

South Korea Begins Mass Production of Low-Cost Laser Weapon to Counter Drones

On 11 July, South Korean officials announced that they would begin mass-producing a new low-cost laser weapon that has the potential to cheaply and reliably destroy small drones at short distances. The system, named Block-I, is the first of its kind to be officially mass-produced, although other countries, including the US and Israel, have developed equivalents. While unlikely to be practical or effective in combat between highly sophisticated contemporary conventional armed forces, laser systems likely have the highest potential in narrowing the cost differential when defending against low-sophistication drones and projectiles used by insurgencies and armed groups. Seoul also announced plans to develop a Block-II version, with greater power and reach.

Philippines and Japan Forge Military Alliance with Reciprocal Access Agreement

On July 8, the Philippines and Japan signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), allowing their armed forces to train and potentially operate together. This agreement, announced by Malacañang Palace, was witnessed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko and Defence.

Minister Kihara Minoru present. The RAA, similar to the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) but unique to the two countries, is likely aimed at enhancing military cooperation and enabling joint training and operations. The agreement comes amid rising tensions with China and represents Japan’s developing proactive security role in the Indo-Pacific, benefiting the Philippines’ security strategy. Japan has also announced that it is willing to deepen military ties with the United States and Australia under trilateral or quadrilateral security arrangements that may involve the Philippines, in a move that is almost certainly being designed to counter China.

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Sails Near Northern Philippines in Show of Force

On 10 July, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) responded to recent security developments made by the Philippines by sailing its Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier, the SHANDONG, close to the northern Philippines. The carrier was joined by dozens of PLAN warplanes and was almost certainly strategic messaging to Manila aimed at communicating that China has the firepower to enforce all its claims in the South China Sea.

Deadly Floods Strike Nepal

At least 14 people have been killed by floods in Nepal, caused by monsoon rains which have also affected neighbouring South Asian countries. The monsoon season runs from June to September, but protracted rains and particularly severe weather events have driven increasingly high fatality rates, with a realistic possibility of increasing severity being linked to anthropogenic climate change.

Japan Issues Heatstroke Alerts as Temperatures Soar to 40°C

Japan’s meteorological agency has issued heatstroke alerts for 26 prefectures, advising residents to stay indoors, use air conditioning, and stay hydrated as temperatures soared to 40 degrees Celsius in multiple areas, marking the start of a severe summer heatwave. The extreme heat poses significant risks, particularly to the elderly and young children, with numerous cases of heatstroke reported across the country and several heat-related deaths already registered.

Severe Monsoon Causes Record Rainfall and Fatalities in South Korea

An unusually severe monsoon season has caused record rainfall in parts of central, southern and eastern South Korea, leading to at least four deaths and causing landslides. North and South Chungcheong, North Gyeongsang and Jeonbuk have been particularly affected. Multiple central regional train services were suspended, and the bullet trains ran at reduced speeds in particular areas. Heavy rains are forecast to continue following a brief intermission, and the Interior Minister has asked people to avoid underground parking, underpasses and streams during periods of heavy rainfall.

Deadly Mudslide at Illegal Gold Mine in Indonesia

On 8 July, a mudslide caused by heavy rains killed at least 8 workers at an illegal gold mine in the Suwawa district of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. The incident was one of several taking place outside of the Indonesian rainy season (from November to February). It is highly likely that anthropogenic changes to the local environment, including the heavy deforestation of the country’s tropical forest, are contributing to making these episodes more frequent.