Solace Global – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38

Headlines From This Week

Protests in Ethiopia – Thousands of people marched in Addis Ababa on 17 September to denounce the deadly ethnic violence on the outskirts of the capital. The civil unrest caused traffic disruption and businesses were forced to shut. Reports state that five demonstrators were killed in clashes that erupted with security personnel. This unrest coincides with an unprecedented political relaxation under new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed. With the president having invited many Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) leaders to return to Ethiopia from exile on 15 September.
Inter-Korea Summit in Pyongyang – From 18 to 20 September the third Inter-Korea summit took place in Pyongyang. The meeting, the third so far this year, between Moon Jae-in, President of South Korea, and Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, and Supreme Leader of North Korea, was to address ways to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula and continue the dialogue for denuclearisation.
Storm Ali Triggers Weather Warnings across the UK – The MET office issued weather warnings for the whole of the UK this week after Storm Ali swept through the country. Winds of up to 102 mph triggered loss of power and mobile phone signals. High winds have also impacted flight schedules, causing cancellations in multiple airports throughout the United Kingdom. Two fatalities have been confirmed; in Ireland, a woman died when her caravan was blown off a cliff, while a man in his twenties was killed by a falling tree in County Armagh. Storm Ali comes after months of unsettling weather, such as the hottest summer on record.
Shooting in Mexico City on Independence Day Weekend – Three gunman disguised as traditional mariachi musicians killed five people and wounded eight others in Garibaldi Plaza, an iconic tourism attraction in Mexico City on 15 September. After the attack the gunmen fled the scene on motorbikes. Reports suggest that the attack was targeted to a specific restaurant by an organised group. At present, police have two people in custody and more arrests are expected as the investigation continues. Official figures show that in Mexico City, crime levels have increased since 2006, when the government declared war on organised crime.
Vietnamese President Dies of Illness – Vietnam President Tran Dai Quang has died at the age of 61 after a prolonged viral illness on 21 September. The country’s number two after the ruling Communist Party leader, died at the National Military Hospital in Hanoi after he fell into a coma. Quang appeared unwell when he last appeared in public at a meeting with the ruling Communist Party and a reception for a foreign delegation last week. National media suggests that Vietnam’s National Assembly is scheduled to convene a session in the coming weeks where a new president will be elected.

What To Look Out For Next Week

Election in Osun State — Nigeria’s Osun State Elections will be held on 22 September to decide which local governor will be elected for the region. The ruling APC party (All Progressive Party) seek to retain power with the opposition PDP (People’s Democratic Party). These elections have previously led to widespread violence in the state and recently a local senator, who was also thought to be a frontrunner in the campaign was murdered. On 21 September candidates from both parties signed an agreement to ensure honest and transparent elections.
Nationwide demonstrations in Niger – Civil society groups and opposition parties have called for nationwide demonstrations on 23 September to denounce the 2018 Finance Act. Protests are often held in Niger against taxes and they often turn violent. It is one of the world’s poorest nations and its economy has been badly hit by falls in oil prices, of which it is a major exporter. Local media reports that protesters will gather in the main cities especially in the capital Niamey.
Protests in Basra – The Basra Protest Coordination Committee called for a large protest to be held on 23 September in Basra, to denounce the government’s delayed response to their requests regarding better water services and the release of individuals arrested during past demonstrations. Protests in the Iraqi city of Basra have seen an escalation of violence. Since the first wave of protests in July 2018, residents have denounced water and electricity shortages and the corruption among official authorities. Media reports that several people have been killed and government buildings such as the Iranian consulate, set on fire.
Saudi Arabia’s National Day – Saudi Arabian National day is always celebrated on 23 September since 1932, and marks when King Abdulaziz announced the unification of the nation as a kingdom. Saudi National Day is celebrated all over the nation with traditional celebrations. It is common to see roads and buildings decorated with flags.
Anti-Erdogan Rally – The German Federation of Journalists and Amnesty International are set to hold a joint protest against Turkish president Erdogan during his official state visit in Berlin on 28 of September. Several activists groups and politicians have highly criticised Berlin’s decision to host the Turkish President, especially in light of Turkey’s crackdown on political dissenters and censorship, and breach of freedom of expression.

Significant Dates and Events

20-27 September – Azerbaijan – Judo: World Championships in Baku
22 September – Mali – Independence Day
22 September – Nigeria – Election in Osun state region
22 September – Poland – Trade unions to demonstrate in Warsaw
22 September – Russia – Trade workers protest in Yekaterinburg
22 September – Brazil – Anti-abortion activists to demonstrate in Fortaleza
22-23 September – United Kingdom – TfL service disruption between Paddington and Heathrow, London
22 September – 06 October – Cameroon – Electoral campaign begins
23 September – Austria — The 2018 UCI Road World Championships Austria in Innsbruck
23 September – Maldives — Presidential election
23 September – Saudi Arabia – National Day
23 September – Niger – Nationwide demonstrations against 2018 Finance Act
23 September – Mexico – Disruption to water supply in Mexico City
23 September – Romania – Anti-government protests in Bucharest
23 September – Afghanistan – Protests in Basra
24 September – Guinea Bissau – National Day
24 September – China – Mid-Autumn festival
24 September – Spain – Protests in Gipuzkoa, Basque Country, over pension reforms
25 September – Argentina – General nationwide strike
27 September – Curaçao – Gay Pride Parade
28-30 September – France – 2018 Ryder Cup at le Golf National in Paris
28 September – Germany – Anti-Erdogan rally in Berlin
28 September – Italy – Aviation workers to strike in Milan and Bologna
28 September – Saudi Arabia – Boxing: World Boxing Super Series Final WBA super-middleweight title

Click the following link to download this report as a PDF: 20180921 – Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 38 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 38 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.