Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46

Headlines From This Week

Coup in Zimbabwe – On 15 November, the military in Zimbabwe took over the running of the country. Long-time President Robert Mugabe has been put under house arrest, with reports suggesting he has refused to step aside. The coup has been peaceful and came about due to the issues of succession to the 93-year-old leader. The military moved after Mugabe sacked Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa last week, signalling that his wife Grace would be the one to take over. The situation in the country is very unclear at present.
Earthquake on Iran-Iraq Border – A 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck close to the Iran-Iraq border, in Kermanshah Province, Iran on 12 November. There are differing estimates on the death toll with a figure as high as 530 reported in some media with most of the fatalities occurring in Iran. Thousands more have been injured and tens of thousands have been left homeless. The earthquake was felt as far away as Israel. Questions have been raised about the quality of buildings in the region, many of which collapsed.
End of Opposition in Cambodia – Prime Minister Hun Sen has increased his grip on power in Cambodia, after the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) was banned by the Supreme Court on 16 November. 100 members of the CNRP were barred from politics for five years ‘for conspiring with foreigners to stage a revolution’. The US has already announced the suspension of financial support for the Cambodian National Election Committee ahead of the 2018 election. Further sanctions from Cambodia’s western partners should be expected but China has voiced support for the government. No significant protests have so far been reported.
Terrorism in Borno – A terror attack on the outskirts of Maiduguri in Nigeria’s Borno state led to the death of 18 people including four suicide bombers. At least 29 others have been seriously; the death toll is expected to rise. Two males and two females infiltrated the Muna Gari community. The attack has been attributed to the Islamic militant group Boko Haram.
Deadly Floods in Central Greece – At least 15 people have been killed after flash floods caused destruction to the west of Greece’s capital Athens. At least 37 others were taken to hospital. The towns of Mandra, Nea Peramos, and Megara were the most affected. Some roads faced more than a metre of water. The Greek Prime Minister declared a period of national mourning.
A North Korean Defector – A North Korean soldier was shot five times by his former comrades as he crossed the demilitarised zone to defect to South Korea. The South Korean military were put on high alert for fear of a retaliatory attack which never emerged. The identity of the defector remains unknown, but doctors have confirmed that he has ‘enormous parasites’.

What to Look Out For Next Week

Lebanon Crisis – The political crisis is ongoing in Lebanon. Despite suggesting he would be returning to Lebanon imminently, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has yet to do so. He has been invited to France by President Macron, who is seeking to mediate in the crisis. Some have suggested that this could lead to a long-term exile for Hariri. Lebanon celebrates its national day on 22 November, there is the potential for protests and demonstrations on this day.
US Remembrance Day – Authorities in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania have advised those attending Remembrance Day Parade on 18 November of a “possible threat”. Those attending have been asked not to bring large bags. There is set to be a large local, state, and federal police presence at the event.
Chile Elections – Chileans are set to elect a new president on 19 November. A run-off vote will occur in December if no candidate gains more than 50 per cent of the vote. Security is to be stepped up with 900 members of the national police force to be deployed. Delays and disruption can be expected within the vicinity of polling stations.

Significant Dates & Events

18 November – Latvian National Day 18 November – Morocco Independence Day 18 November – Oman National Day 19 November – Maldives National Day 19 November – Monaco National Day 20 November – Farmer’s association to rally in Delhi, India 21 November – Anti-austerity protests due to take place across the UK 24 November – Myanmar National Day 24 November – Sikh festival of Guru Tegh Bahadur

Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 46 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 46 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.