Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45

Headlines From This Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump presently in Vietnam as part of a five-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour has resulted in substantially enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. The Japanese, Korean and Chinese visits occurred without violent issues. Disruption to travel, however, is highly likely to occur in the locations he is yet to visit. Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila are the final locations to host the President’s tour.
Typhoon Damrey – Struck Vietnam as a Category Two storm through 03 to 05 November. Extremely high rainfall led to extensive flooding, particularly in central Vietnam, with at least 106 people being killed, and approximately 200 remaining missing. Initial estimates suggest that over $330 million of damage was caused, with over 116,000 homes suffering extensive damage.
Corruption Arrests in Saudi Arabia – A new anti-corruption committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, detained approximately 200 senior officials, including senior ministers and members of the House of Saud royal family. This marked a substantial departure from the norm within the Kingdom, issues within the royal family are generally resolved out of the public eye. Two senior princes also died, one in a helicopter crash, and one in mysterious circumstances, although these deaths cannot be directly linked to the apparent purge.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Resigned – The Lebanese Prime Minister, al-Harari, resigned whilst in Saudi Arabia, potentially triggering a crisis in the precariously balanced political structure of the country. Al-Harari alleged his resignation was due to the threat of assassination. His presence in Saudi Arabia has, however, led to speculation that he may have been entangled in the Kingdom’s corruption scandal, or otherwise pressured into resignation as part of a broader Saudi power-play in the region. There is a realistic probability that sectarian unrest in Lebanon will follow.
Liberian Elections Delayed – the Liberian Supreme Court delayed the second round of the Liberian presidential elections due to allegations of malpractice by the third-placed candidate. The basis of these allegations has yet to be established; international observers raised no issues. There is a possibility of unrest between the supporters of the three major parties. A new poll date has yet to be confirmed.
Catalan Officials Charged with Rebellion – Six senior former members of the Catalan regional government have been charged by the Spanish government with rebellion and sedition. The allegations centre to their activities in support of the illegal Catalan independence referendum. The former Catalan prime minister, Charles Puigdemont, remains in Brussels with an outstanding extradition request. Protests can be expected across Catalonia for the duration of court proceedings.

What To Look Out For Next Week

ASEAN Summit – The Association of South East Asian Nations is scheduled to meet between 13-15 November in Manila, the Philippines. The dates of the summit have been declared “non-working days” in Manila and the surrounding provinces. Extensive disruption should be expected to services, although major banks will remain open across the Metro Manila area. Substantially enhanced security measures and road closures should be expected.
Russia-Turkey Summit – Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan are scheduled to conduct a summit in Sochi, Russia, concerning future economic cooperation, and military activities in Syria. The outcome of this summit is likely to have a substantial impact in the balance of power between the various military and paramilitary groups operating in Iraq and Syria.

Significant Dates & Events

11 November – Angolan independence day
12 November – Equatorial Guinea to hold general elections
12 November – Slovenian presidential elections
12 November – Anti-racism rally to be held in central Montreal
13 November – Mykonos Airport, Greece, to close until 29 November due to scheduled maintenance
13 November – Somaliland regional elections
14 November – Irish railway workers to conduct a 24 hour strike
15 November – Republic Day in northern Cyprus
15 November – Sikh festival, Guru Nanak’s birthday celebration
16 November – General election to be held in Tonga
17 November – Pakistan People’s Party due to hold protests in central Punjab

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 45 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 45 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.