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Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48

Headlines From This Week

  • Mount Agung Erupted in Bali – The volcano at Mount Agung erupted in Bali, leading to the imposition of a 12km exclusion zone around the crater, and mass disruption to air travel due to the resulting ash cloud. Several thousand flights from Bali International Airport were cancelled, stranding travellers. A change in weather conditions has lead to a clearing of the ash cloud, and flights have since recommenced.
  • North Korea Launched a New ICBM – North Korea carried out a test-launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Based on its flight characteristics, Japanese and US officials suggest it has an effective range of approximately 13,000km, placing the vast majority of the USA within range. Observers are unable to judge, based on this launch, the weapon’s accuracy, payload, or ability to safely re-enter the atmosphere; all key attributes to a combat-ready rocket. This launch demonstrated the continued ineffectiveness of international sanctions on halting the North Korean nuclear weapons programme.
  • The Japanese Emperor Announced his Abdication – Emperor Akihito announced that he will abdicate his position on 30 April 2019, becoming the first Japanese monarch to abdicate in over 200 years. On the date of the proposed abdication, Akihito will be 85 years old. The title of Emperor will be passed to Crown Prince Naruhito, who will be 59 on the date of his succession. The role of Emperor is principally ceremonial, with all actions carried out by the Emperor requiring cabinet approval.
  • Honduran Election – Hondurans went to the polls for their general election on 26 November, electing their President, 128 members of Congress, and a variety of municipal positions. Protesters and police have clashed across the country as the opposition candidate lost a five point lead following a slow counting process and a computer glitch in the vote tallying system. A large number of ballot boxes reportedly arrived for counting with inconsistencies and potential evidence of tampering. Unrest is likely to persist up to, and following the announcement of the result.• Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.
  • Taliban Insurgents Attacked Peshawar Agricultural College – Nine people were killed, and 38 others were injured, when Taliban insurgents, wearing female dress, stormed a college in Peshawar. All three gunmen were shot and killed by security forces. All three attackers were wearing suicide vests, but were killed before they could detonate them. The attack was apparently planned to coincide with the holiday celebrating the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed. A Taliban spokesman justified the attack by suggesting the college had harboured an office for Pakistan’s secret security service, the ISI.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Finnish Independence Day – 06 December marks the centenary of Finland’s independence from Russia. Celebrations officially begin mid-afternoon on 05 December, and travellers should expect disruption as festivals, parades, and public celebrations are held in most towns and cities. Considering heightened tensions with Russia in recent years, some disruptions at border stations are possible.
  • Nepalese Elections – The second round of Nepal’s legislative elections are scheduled for Thursday 07 December, and will elect members of the House of Representatives. This will be the first election held under the new constitution ratified in 2015. Recent local elections had a turnout of over 75%, disruption can therefore be expected as the majority of the population are likely to attend polling locations. Security and restrictions at border crossings with India are frequently heightened during election periods.
  • GCC Summit in Kuwait – Kuwait City is to host a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council on 05-06 December. Travellers should expect enhanced security measures to be in place for the duration of the summit.

Significant Dates & Events

  • 02 December – Laos National Day, the anniversary of the Republic’s foundation
  • 02 December – UAE National Day
  • 03 December – First Sunday of Advent, a widely celebrated Christian religious event
  • 03 December – Pakistan People’s Party scheduled protests in Rahin Yar Khan, Punjab
  • 07 December – Alitalia staff set to conduct a 24 hour, nationwide strike across Italy
  • 08 December – Feast of the Immaculate Conception, a widely celebrated Christian holiday
Click link to Download PDF:  Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 48 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 48 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.