Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44

Headlines From The Week

Manhattan Terror Attack – Eight people were killed after an Uzbek immigrant drove a truck down a cycle path in Manhattan, New York City. He then hit a school bus before exiting the vehicle holding a pellet gun and a paintball gun; he was subsequently shot, injured, and arrested by police. The incident has been treated as a terror attack, with the attacker reportedly inspired by Islamic State. Almost a dozen others were injured.
Eritrea Clashes – Security forces clashed with student protestors in the Eritrean capital of Asmara. 28 people were allegedly killed and more than 100 injured on 07 November. These figures cannot be verified as they came from an anti-government activist group, though the US embassy did confirm reports of gunfire. Eritrea remains a hermit state, which many have called ‘the North Korea of Africa’.
Ethiopia – At least 19 people died in two separate incidents across Ethiopia in a series of incidents that demonstrate rising ethnic tensions in the nation. A sugar protest in Oromia state lead to 11 fatalities and 245 arrests, with Oromia-Amhara tensions being a contributing factor. In western Gumuz state, a further eight were killed and 11 arrested after ethnic Amhara and Gumuz groups engaged in violence following a personal feud.
North Korea warnings – The South Korean intelligence agency reported that the North was likely to recommence the refinement of nuclear materials before the end of 2017, and that facilities were prepared for another nuclear test with little to no warning. There is a realistic possibility that North Korea will carry out a further nuclear test during President Trump’s tour of Asia, or in the build up to the South Korean Winter Olympics in early 2018. Seismologists have detected a notable increase in instability in the North Korean nuclear test area following their most recent test, which could be notably worsened by further testing.
India power plant – At least 29 people were killed following an explosion at the National Thermal Power Corporation’s site in Uttar Pradesh. Preliminary investigations indicate that the blast was the result of lax safety and operations procedures, not of intentional sabotage.
France State of Emergency – Two years after its initial implementation, France has rescinded its State of Emergency due to the threat of terrorism. A series of new legislation has enacted some powers from the State of Emergency into routine legal and law enforcement practice, in order to better deal with the ongoing threat.
Kenya Elections – The incumbent President, Uhuru Kenyatta, was formally declared the winner of the 26 October poll, with approximately 98 per cent of the vote after the principal opposition group opted to boycott the election. Opposition leaders have called for ongoing civil disobedience.

What To Look Out For Next Week

President Trump’s visit to Asia – US President Donald Trump is scheduled to complete a six-state tour of Asia between 05 and 13 November. This tour is highly likely to attract an enhanced security presence throughout the countries visited, in addition to protests and low-level civil unrest. Disruption to travel, therefore, is highly likely. Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang, Hanoi, and Manila will host the President throughout this period.
International Cube Day – “Anonymous for the Voiceless’, an animal, environment, and health rights groups have organised ‘International Cube Day’ in 186 cities around the world to demonstrate for their causes. It is unclear how much disruption their demonstrations will cause; their Facebook event pages do not suggest that more than a dozen attendees will be at each of the ‘cubes’, however the number of events to be held is significant.
Tropical Storm Damrey – Flooding is expected across Vietnam and Thailand as Tropical Storm Damrey crosses from west to east across the region. Areas struck by the storm are likely to receive between 150mm and 300mm of rain. This level of rainfall is highly likely to lead to landslides and protracted disruption.

Significant Dates & Event

04 November – Far right group Forza Nuova group plans to protest in Rome.
04 November – Government-authorised ultra-nationalist march planned in southern Moscow.
05 November – Pakistan People’s Party rally in Punjab’s Layyah.
05 November – Million Mask March in London’s Trafalgar Square.
06 November – Asia Pacific Economic Conference in Da Nang, Vietnam.
06 November – Sicily’s Vincenzo Florio Airport to close for five days.
07 November – Nationwide Italian taxi-drivers protest due to new licensing rules.
07 November – Liberian presidential election run-off.
09 November – Falkland Island elections. Protests possible in Buenos Aires.
09 November – Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Brazil.
10 November – Association of South East Asian Nations summit in Manila.

Click link to Download PDF|: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 44 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 44 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.