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Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40

Headlines From This Week

  • Catalan Independence – The final tally from the vote on 01 October vote on Catalan independence has not been released. Organisers claim that 90 per cent voted for independence with a turnout of 42 per cent. Clashes have been reported across Catalonia between protestors and police. The Spanish Constitutional Court has suspended the Catalan parliamentary session planned for 09 October, in which Catalan leaders were expected to vote on independence.
  • Las vegas Attack – Just after 2200 hours on 02 October, a gunman fired down at a country music festival from the Mandalay Bay Hotel, Las Vegas. At least 59 people were killed and more than 500 injured; the deadliest mass shooting event in the nation’s history. The motive of the attacker, who reportedly ended his own life, is unclear.
  • Marseille Attack – Two women were stabbed and killed at a train station in Marseille, France on 01 October. The attacker, who is currently being investigated for links to Islamic State, was shot dead at the scene. Under France’s state of emergency, soldiers are deployed at key sights throughout the country including transport hubs.
  • Unrest in Anglophone Cameroon – This week has seen further deadly clashes between protestors and security forces in English-speaking areas of Cameroon. Amnesty International has accused Cameroonian security forces of killing 17 secessionist protestors. Many of the deaths occurred on 1 October as police opened fire on a crowd calling for independence. The internet has been blocked in the region due to unrest.
  • The Plague in Madagascar – The World Health Organisation (WHO) has identified more than 114 cases of the plague in Madagascar since the outbreak was first identified in early August 2017. At least 20 fatalities have been reported and this is expected to rise. Plague is endemic to Madagascar, with 400 cases reported, on average, each year. The outbreak has led to public gatherings being banned in Antananarivo, the capital city.
  • Suicide Attack in Balochistan – At least 20 people were killed after a suicide attack at a shrine in Jhal Magsi in Balochistan on 05 October. A further 30 have been reported injured in this unstable region of Pakistan. The attacker detonated his suicide vest after a security guard had prevented him from entering the shrine.
  • Tropical Storm Nate – At least 22 people have been killed in the Central American countries of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras after Tropical Storm Nate made landfall. Nate has caused heavy rains, landslides, and floods; states of emergency have been implemented. Hundreds of thousands have been left without power or running water. The storm is expected to head north towards the US Gulf Coast and may strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall, approximately in the evening of 7 October, in the US.

What To Look Out For Next Week

  • Kenya Opposition Plan Weekly Protests – Starting from 06 October, opposition coalition, the National Super Alliance (NASA), has organised weekly protests against the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Violence has been reported and further violent unrest is expected in the coming weeks in the lead up to the rearranged presidential elections on 26 October. Violence is likely to be most prominent outside of IEBC offices, in Nairobi slums, and Kisumu; the latter two contain a large number of NASA supporters.
  • Protests in Russia – At least 80 cities in Russia are due to host protests to mark the birthday of President Putin. The protests, organised by opposition leader Alexei Navalny, are due to demand an end to Putin’s rule and genuine democracy in Russia. Clashes between protestors and police are likely; Navalny and a number of his supporters have been attacked in recent months.
  • Liberia Elections – On 10 October, Liberians will go to the polls in presidential and legislative elections. Security is expected to be tight. The last day to enter the country by air is 08 October. The campaign has remained relatively nonviolent as the country prepares for its transfer of power from on elected president to another since 1944.

Significant Dates & Events

  • 07 October – 16th anniversary of the US-led war in Afghanistan
  • 08 October – 2017 Hong Kong Cyclothon
  • 08 October – Anti-secessionist rally to be held in Barcelona
  • 09-11 October – French labour unions call for another strike • 09 October – Uganda Independence Day
  • 09 October – Lawmakers from Federally Administered Tribal Areas to protest in Islamabad
  • 10 October – Fiji Independence Day
  • 10 October – Commemoration of the founding of the Republic of China in Taiwan
  • 12 October – Fiesta Nacional de España, Spain’s national day
  • 12 October – Equatorial Guinea National Day
Click link to Download PDF: Weekly Risk Roundup – Week 40 The Weekly Risk Roundup highlights significant events from the last week and what to look out for next week. Week 40 Weekly Risk Roundup was compiled by Solace Global’s in-house intelligence team.