Grenade Attack at a Political Rally in Addis Ababa

• At least one fatality has been reported after a grenade attack occurred as a political rally was underway in Addis Ababa on 23 June 2018.
• Police in Ethiopia are treating the incident as an assassination attempt on new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
• 132 more have been injured according to the health minister but the Prime Minister remains unharmed.

Ethiopia’s health minister has reported that there has been one death and 132 injuries (including eight critical cases), after a suspected grenade attack at a political rally led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Meskel Square, Addis Ababa on 23 June 2018. Abiy had just finished speaking when the attack occurred. According to the prime minister “A few Ethiopians were injured…there are a few people who lost their lives”. The new prime minister remains unharmed and was promptly whisked away by his security detail. Thousands were attending the rally in the Ethiopian capital, the largest such pro-government event in years. The rally in the capital was mirrored by smaller events nationwide. Authorities in Ethiopia are treating the incident as a “well-orchestrated” assassination attempt on Abiy and three suspects have already been arrested.

If an investigation does show that this is a targeted assassination attempt on Abiy, the motives are clear. Abiy’s ascension to the top of Ethiopian politics has brought about numerous promises of reforms and the new prime minister is hugely popular according to reports. Ethiopia has been beset by violent unrest based for around three years, hundreds were killed in significant anti-government protests during this period. The unrest in Ethiopia centred around the country’s Oromo and Amhara regions. The Oromo and Amhara peoples constitute around 61 per cent of Ethiopia’s population yet have historically received little representation in Ethiopia’s government or security forces. The country’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), is dominated by the Tigrayan ethnic group, who make up only six per cent of Ethiopia’s 100 million-strong population. Abiy Ahmed is Ethiopia’s first ethnic Oromo leader.

The list of reforms undertaken and promised by Abiy are extensive, and include:

• Peace with Eritrea – under Abiy, Ethiopia has unilaterally agreed to adhere to Algiers agreement which demarcates the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia had failed to implement the agreement since its inception in 2000.
• The relaxation censorship by unblocking hundreds of websites and TV channels.
• The promise to release hundreds of political prisoners.
• Economic reforms, including the opening up of state-owned companies to private investment, has been promised.
• An end to the six-month state of emergency two months early.

It is highly possible that this was an attack conducted by those upset that the country is led by an ethnic Oromo or those unhappy with Abiy’s reforms. It is unclear if this attack marks a single event or the potential beginning of violent opposition to Abiy reforms which have generally been well received domestically and internationally. Though there has been an ongoing power struggle within the ruling coalition between Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) and the current administration. TPLF, a faction of the ruling EPRDF, dominated Ethiopian politics and its security forces for the last 27 years. Commentators have suggested that they have been shocked by recent admissions by Abiy that the government used violent repression to maintain its position and that they may fear legal and judicial repercussions. Indeed, one supposed eye-witness claims that it was a police officer who threw the grenade, though this has not been confirmed.

It should be noted that on 22 June 2018, Ginbot 7, an Ethiopian rebel group based out of neighbouring Eritrea, suspended its armed resistance against the government on the back of Abiy’s reforms.