Quarterly Election Briefing

Election Guide: Q2 2025

Key Election Flashpoints and Security Risks to Monitor

The second quarter of 2025 will see pivotal elections across ten countries – each carrying significant geopolitical, security, and operational risks. From post-coup legitimacy votes in Gabon to judiciary reforms in Mexico, snap elections in Portugal and Canada, and rising populist movements in Romania and Poland, political transitions are set to define the global risk landscape this quarter.

Download the full guide now

Here’s what’s inside:

Gabon: Presidential Elections 12 April and 4 May

What’s at Stake in Gabon’s 2025 Presidential Elections After the Coup

Gabon returns to the polls for the first time since the 2023 military coup that removed President Ali Bongo. Brigadier General Brice Oligui Nguema, now the transitional president, is running in an election designed to legitimise the junta’s hold on power. Despite new constitutional reforms, opposition figures face an uphill battle in a system still tightly controlled by the military. With past elections marred by violence and repression, the risk of unrest in urban centers remains high.

Canada: Federal Elections 28 April

Will Anti-American Sentiment Shape Canada’s Snap Federal Election?

Canada’s snap federal election comes just weeks after Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister. Rising trade tensions with the US under President Trump and a surge in nationalist rhetoric have transformed the political landscape. Once trailing in polls, the ruling Liberal Party has seen a boost from anti-American sentiment, while opposition parties recalibrate. Protests and symbolic actions are likely as the campaign sharpens around foreign policy and domestic economic anxieties.

Australia: Federal Elections 3 May

Will Protests and a Cost-of-Living Crisis Define Australia’s 2025 Federal Vote?

Australians will vote amid mounting frustration over inflation, housing affordability, and stalled reforms on Indigenous rights. The Labor government’s failure to pass the Indigenous Voice referendum has energised opposition narratives, while climate activists continue direct action campaigns in major cities. International issues, including Gaza-related protests, are also feeding public dissent. With political polarisation deepening, the election is expected to ignite disruptive but symbolic demonstrations across the country.

Romania: Presidential Elections 4 and 18 May

Can Romania’s Election Re-Run Avoid More Chaos After Russian Interference?

Romania’s presidential election re-run follows a dramatic annulment by the constitutional court due to confirmed Russian interference in the 2024 vote. Populist frontrunner Călin Georgescu has been barred from running, triggering backlash from supporters and criticism from foreign governments. With a new pro-EU candidate emerging and tensions rising between pro- and anti-establishment camps, the country faces a deeply polarised and potentially volatile election season.

Albania: Parliamentary Elections 11 May

Will Albania’s Diaspora Voting and Political Fractures Spark Election Unrest?

For the first time, Albania’s diaspora – one of the largest in the world by proportion – will vote in parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party faces renewed opposition from a conservative coalition led by the embattled Sali Berisha. Anti-government protests have persisted for months, and TikTok has been banned ahead of the vote. With allegations of corruption, democratic backsliding, and election rigging, unrest in Tirana and across the Albanian diaspora is a real possibility.

Philippines: General Elections 12 May

Is the Marcos–Duterte Feud Destabilising the Philippines Ahead of Midterms?

The Philippines heads into consequential midterm elections with a bitter feud dividing the ruling UniTeam alliance. President Marcos Jr. faces an open challenge from Vice President Sara Duterte, whose impeachment and upcoming Senate trial have polarised the electorate. Rodrigo Duterte’s recent arrest and disinformation campaigns by both camps have escalated tensions. The outcome could determine the future of both political dynasties – and the risk of unrest is growing as rival supporters mobilise.

Portugal: General Election 18 May

Could Portugal’s Snap Election Open the Door to Far-Right Influence?

Portugal will hold its third national election in three years following a series of corruption scandals and a failed confidence vote. The centre-right Democratic Alliance and the Socialist Party remain neck-and-neck, while the far-right Chega party continues its upward climb. As public frustration with political instability and economic hardship grows, a power shift toward more extreme platforms could trigger social pushback and reshape coalition dynamics.

Poland: Presidential Elections 18 May

Will Poland’s 2025 Presidential Vote Reshape Its Role in the EU?

Poland’s tightly contested presidential election pits liberal reformer Rafał Trzaskowski against PiS-backed conservative Karol Nawrocki. With outgoing President Duda frequently blocking progressive legislation, this race could unlock—or shut down—years of political gridlock. Far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen may also play spoiler, backed by Russian influence campaigns and anti-establishment sentiment. The results will carry major implications for Poland’s relationship with the EU and domestic civil rights.

Mexico: Judicial Elections 1 June

Is Mexico’s Judiciary at Risk in Its First Public Elections?

For the first time in its history, Mexico will elect members of the judiciary through a public vote—over 800 positions, including Supreme Court justices and lower court judges. President AMLO’s controversial reform aims to “democratise” the system, but critics warn it opens the door to politicisation and cartel interference. As violence against candidates intensifies and judicial independence comes under threat, the vote could redefine the balance of power in Mexico’s justice system.

Burundi: Legislative Elections 5 June

Can Burundi’s Legislative Elections Proceed Peacefully Amid Insurgency?

Burundi’s 2025 legislative elections will take place under the shadow of regional insurgencies, economic stress, and political repression. The ruling CNDD-FDD party is likely to retain control, but with most opposition voices disqualified, frustration is mounting. Ethnic power-sharing rules, a militarised youth wing, and growing tension near the DRC border complicate the risk landscape—especially in rural provinces and contested districts.