Global Risk Outlook 2025

The Global Risk Outlook 2025 provides a clear, intelligence-led assessment of the key risks shaping the year ahead. Covering geopolitical shifts, security developments, and emerging trends, this report is designed to support organisations in planning for the future with confidence.

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• The Sahel and West Africa – Rising instability and security challenges as armed groups expand their influence.
• Eastern Europe – Shifts in military and political dynamics, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and its broader implications.
• The Middle East – Continued tensions and their potential impact on operations, supply chains, and travel in the region.

• Hybrid warfare and state-sponsored cyber activity – Understanding how geopolitical competition is driving cyber threats, misinformation campaigns, and covert operations.
• The role of drones and autonomous systems – Their increasing use by both state and non-state actors in security operations and conflicts.
• Organised crime and illicit networks – How evolving tactics in trafficking, smuggling, and financial crime affect global operations.

• AI advancements and cybersecurity – The dual impact of artificial intelligence as both a tool for security and a potential risk vector.
• Economic pressures and market volatility – How inflation, supply chain disruptions, and shifting trade policies may influence global stability.
• Changing attitudes to travel and mobility – The implications of regulatory changes, civil unrest, and shifting traveller expectations on business operations.