Alert+
Rwanda Accused of Aiding M23 Rebels as Goma Falls to Rebel Forces
Intelligence cut off: 11:00 GMT 27 January 2025
At approximately 02:45 local time on 27 January, media spokespersons for the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group announced via a press release that their forces had successfully seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Hours earlier, local media reported gunfire in the city’s outskirts, as M23 forces clashed with the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) following their capture of the nearby town of Sake.
Unconfirmed sources indicate that Rwandan forces crossed the border to assist the rebels in seizing Goma. Rwandan and Congolese forces have also reportedly fired at each other across the shared border.
Rwandan soldiers claim that 26 Congolese soldiers and one police officer crossed into Rwanda and surrendered. While the DRC-Rwanda border is reportedly officially still open, border clashes almost certainly prevent any movement.
On 25 January, the DRC severed diplomatic relations with Rwanda, long accused of supporting the M23 movement, and recalled its embassy staff from the country. The following day, on 26 January, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held an emergency session as the rebels advanced toward Goma. During the session, Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Wagner accused Rwanda of actions amounting to a “declaration of war“.
The extent of casualties and damage from the M23 offensive remains unclear. In the week preceding the Goma offensive, both M23 and Rwanda faced international condemnation after rebel forces killed 13 United Nations (UN) peacekeepers. M23-affiliated media later released footage showing FARDC soldiers tasked with defending Goma being disarmed and detained under UN peacekeepers’ supervision.
On 26 January, local media reported that hundreds of residents began fleeing Goma after news of M23’s capture of Sake. In recent weeks, M23 has seized key strategic towns, including Katale, Masisi, and Minova, in their advance toward Goma. On 27 January, a mass jailbreak reportedly occurred in Goma, hours after M23 entered the city. The prison held approximately 3,000 inmates and was set on fire during the prisoners’ escape. Deaths were reported, but no official figures have been released.
Goma international airport has been evacuated and has temporarily grounded flights due to the ongoing clashes.
Amid escalating tensions, Kenyan President William Ruto announced on the social media platform X that the East African Community (EAC) will convene an extraordinary summit within 48 hours. DRC president Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan president Paul Kagame are both set to attend the summit. Ruto stated that the summit will aim to negotiate a ceasefire between M23 and the Congolese government while addressing long-standing tensions between the DRC and Rwanda.
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Goma Crisis Deepens: M23 Offensive and the Impact on DRC-Rwanda Relations
Goma is a strategically significant city, rich in natural resources such as gold and cobalt, which represent critical economic interests for both the DRC and Rwanda. The alleged seizure of Goma by the M23 rebels follows weeks of captures of nearby towns and evacuations of civilians. Despite M23 claims that the city has been captured, there is a realistic possibility that it remains contested due to uncorroborated reports that fighting is still ongoing.
Despite recent conflict, the origins of instability in Goma trace back to the early 1990s. The conflict is deeply tied to regional ethnic tensions. Following the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, which killed at least 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus, over two million Hutus, including genocidal forces like the Interahamwe militia and the former Rwandan army (FAR), fled to the DRC. They established camps near Goma and launched cross-border attacks on Rwanda.
Rwanda intervened militarily in the DRC, leading to the First (1996-1997) and Second (1998-2003) Congo Wars. These wars drew in multiple nations and militias, leaving eastern DRC destabilised. The M23 rebel group emerged, primarily consisting of Tutsi defectors from the Congolese army. They seized Goma in 2012 and held it for two weeks, citing ethnic discrimination. Their alleged ties to Rwanda added further complexity to the conflict.
The fall of North Kivu’s capital and largest city is almost certain to trigger anti-government and anti-UN protests in Kinshasa and other major cities across the DRC. The rapid gains of the M23 offensive are likely to heighten criticism of the government’s handling of the crisis and the effectiveness of the UN’s role in the region. Such developments have historically led to widespread unrest and are often met with heavy-handed responses by Congolese security forces. The US Embassy in Kinshasa has issued a warning to travellers, anticipating significant protests in the capital on 27 January.
Travellers are strongly advised to stay clear of government buildings, foreign embassies, and UN-affiliated sites, as these are highly likely to become focal points for protests and violence. Protests are likely to be anti-Western in sentiment.
Widespread dissatisfaction over President Tshisekedi’s handling of the conflict additionally heightens the risk of political upheaval or attempts to overthrow his administration. In addition to the crisis in North Kivu, Tshisekedi’s presidency has been marred by controversies surrounding the 2023 presidential election and delays in the originally scheduled 2024 parliamentary elections.
Such controversies were ultimately viewed as triggers for a failed coup attempt in May 2024, marked by intense fighting near the presidential residence, Palais de la Nation, which left six people dead. The perceived weakness of Tshisekedi’s government heightens the risk of further coup attempts.
Tensions between DRC and Rwanda are likely to remain high during this period. Given previous wars were triggered by conflict in North Kivu, international actors will almost certainly attempt to prevent any further escalation. There is a realistic possibility that if tensions are not significantly reduced, the situation could escalate into a regional conflict.
Travel Risk Advice: Safety Guidelines Amid Rising Tensions in the DRC
- Closely monitor local news reports and government alerts.
- Avoid all non-essential travel to the DRC, particularly the eastern regions of North and South Kivu.
- Avoid all military installations, government buildings, and key infrastructure.
- Civil unrest and demonstrations are likely throughout the DRC. Travellers are advised to avoid all areas of unrest. Protests are likely in Kinshasa in front of government buildings, foreign embassies, and UN-affiliated sites.
- Adhere to all instructions issued by authorities.
- Ensure that you contact and register with your local embassy or consulate if stuck within DRC.
- The security situation in the DRC is likely to remain highly unstable in the coming weeks with the severance of diplomatic relations and involvement of regional armed forces, particularly in eastern DRC. There is a realistic possibility of ethnic tensions within the DRC.
- Evacuations and internal displacement will almost certainly lead to widespread travel disruption and congestion on major roads. Ensure vehicles are fuelled, consider alternative routes, and ensure that vehicles are loaded with additional fuel, water, food and other critical supplies.
- Confirm booked flights are running prior to checking out of hotels or travelling to the airport.
- Have emergency contact numbers saved on your phone. These should include the local authorities, medical facilities, and any consular support. Ensure that mobile phones are charged in case of any losses in electricity.
- Monitor the Solace Secure platform and trusted local media for updates relevant to the conflict.
