Rise in Drone Warfare by Non-State Actors in 2025
How Is Drone Warfare Evolving Under Non-State Actors?
Non-state actors are altering the landscape of modern conflict, harnessing drones to challenge state militaries and law enforcement. From weaponised UAVs to covert smuggling operations, these groups are reshaping asymmetric warfare on a global scale, with 2025 poised to see even more sophisticated tactics and threats.
In 2024, insurgents, violent extremist organisations (VEOs), and criminal groups escalated their use of drones, targeting both rival groups and state forces. Weaponised commercial drones and locally produced UAVs enabled access to secure areas, allowing for precision strikes and smuggling operations that bypass conventional defences.
The accessibility of drone technology, combined with its low cost and operational flexibility, has made UAVs indispensable tools for non-state actors looking to gain a tactical edge.
What Risks Does Drone Warfare Pose in 2025?
Non-state actors are not only refining their use of UAVs but also expanding the scope of their operations. Key risks include:
Mass Casualty Events: Public gatherings, from concerts to sports events, are vulnerable to drone attacks using improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
High-Profile Assassinations: The possibility of drones being used to target political leaders and key figures is increasing, as evidenced by past attempts in Venezuela and Myanmar.
Critical Infrastructure Attacks: UAVs equipped with explosives could target energy grids, airports, and other key infrastructure, causing widespread disruption.
Chemical or Biological Attacks: Modified drones could potentially disperse harmful agents, a threat long considered by groups like Aum Shinrikyo.
What’s inside:
- Weaponised UAVs: How non-state actors are leveraging drones for precision strikes, intelligence gathering, and covert operations.
- Global Hotspots: Key regions where drone warfare is intensifying, from Latin America to South Asia.
- High-Impact Scenarios: The potential for drone-enabled assassinations, infrastructure attacks, and mass-casualty events in 2025.
- Countering the Threat: Insights into anti-drone strategies and policy recommendations for governments and security forces.
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