US President Joe Biden stated on 14 August that the government of Panama is planning to start repatriating migrants that cross into the country via the southern Darien Gap, a tract of extremely dense jungle which is unavoidable for South American migrants seeking to reach the US via land.

The first major policy undertaken by the new government of Panama, led by President Jose Raul Mulino, was to strike a deal with the US, whereby Panama would carry out repatriations on US-funded flights. More than 500,000 migrants crossed the Darien Gap in 2023.

Solace Global Assessment: 

For Washington, the deal with Panama is part of a broader effort to decrease land-based flows of migrants via Central America, which is increasingly being used by migrants from other parts of the world. US diplomats are also trying to strike a deal with Costa Rica, which is expected to be similar to the one with Panama. By pushing for multiple deals with friendly regional governments, US officials are highly likely trying to put in place a stronger deterrent to migrants, while simultaneously accounting for border control failures.

The Darien Gap remains an extremely dangerous stretch of land, with extremely little infrastructure, that is for the most part controlled by organised Colombian gangs, such as the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces. This, alongside widespread corruption at the Colombia-Panama border, means that efforts to police the gap will likely only be partially successful even with increased funding and manpower. Still, increased border controls may make the land-based route less attractive.

The alternative, which is considerably more expensive and risky, is likely to be a sea-based route between the Colombian island of San Andrés and the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua. The maritime route to Nicaragua is also likely to increase in attractiveness if a second deal with Costa Rica is approved, as it would bypass both countries.

An increase in maritime migration is likely to pose further risks. First, the crossings from San Andrés are often attempted on small vessels, which often capsize leading to mass drownings. Smugglers operating the crossings often overload the boats, greatly increasing the chance of sinking, and a growing volume of departures from San Andrés may result in a proportional increase in the number of deaths.

Second, the maritime route is assessed to cost each migrant more than three times as much as the Darien Gap route, and therefore is likely to further increase the chances of migrants being exploited by traffickers, potentially leading to increased rates of forced labour, sexual abuse, debt bondage and other forms of exploitation.

Edmundo Gonzalez, Maria Corina Machado, and the other leaders of the Venezuelan opposition have issued a call for global protests to take place on 17 August. The announcement comes weeks after the results of the Venezuelan elections were published, granting a third term to President Maduro. The results – which have been contested by domestic and international observers – caused almost immediate protests, which were met with violent repression by authorities, the clampdown being nicknamed “Operation Knock Knock” by regime supporters.

As of the time of writing, more than 1300 people have been arrested in Venezuela, and the opposition leaders, who recently have become objects of a criminal investigation, remain in hiding.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The announcement is likely a reflection of the worsening domestic position of the opposition, following the Maduro regime’s success in quashing the protests that broke out after the electoral results were announced. Despite the large international support, the opposition has likely failed to gain traction with the military and other government-backed militia which constitute the backbone of the regime’s security apparatus.

The call for protests is likely to result in large-scale disruptions in countries that have a large Venezuelan diaspora. Notable demonstrations are likely to take place in Colombia, especially in Bogota, where large pro-opposition protests already occurred on 3 August. Other likely hotspots for demonstrations include the United States, particularly the state of Florida, where most of the US Venezuelan diaspora is concentrated, and in Spain where there are almost 500,000 Venezuelans.

There is a realistic possibility that smaller demonstrations will occur within liberal democracies and will be staged outside Venezuelan diplomatic missions. There is a high likelihood that actors friendly to the Maduro regime will carry out actions meant to undermine or disrupt the protests – for instance deploying agitators or provoking police intervention – or launch information operations to discredit the opposition.

Inside Venezuela, the regime will highly likely use the protests as a pretext to accuse the opposition of being backed by foreign powers. This will take the form of increased nationalistic messaging meant to provoke a rally around the flag effect, and possibly executive measures meant to further curtail the space for dissent. Importantly, accusations of foreign collaboration and meddling may be used by the regime to further restrict the activities of foreign NGOs in the country.

In January, the Venezuelan parliament began discussing a law that restricts NGOs’ ability to receive funds, imposing a series of bureaucratic hurdles that are almost certainly meant to disrupt their operations.

Large-scale rail strikes threaten Canadian exports

Canada’s two largest railway companies, Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO), could simultaneously stop operations due to a deadlock between them and the Teamsters labour union over scheduling and wages. The rail companies have threatened to lock their employees out of their workplaces on 22 August if a deal is not reached.

A similar stoppage was prevented earlier in the year following government intervention, and this earlier resolution has ignited current calls by grain shippers and other industry groups for the government to intervene again. Annually, Canada’s railways transport around CAD 380 billion worth of goods. Consequently, a halt would almost certainly cause losses of tens of millions of dollars and spillover effects across Canadian markets.

Moreover, the stoppage could have an adverse impact on Canada’s trade relationship with the USA, as 75 per cent of Canada’s goods exports head south of the border. Most US cereal imports originate from Canada, and strike-driven supply chain disruptions are likely to impact market prices in the US.

US Democratic Convention to be held in Chicago

On 19 August, the Democratic Party will hold its National Convention in Chicago where it will officially unveil Vice President Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate. The convention is anticipated to attract 50,000 supporters and will include high-profile figures such as former president, Barack Obama and the Clintons.

Strict security measures will be in place, especially after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, and police have warned that they will not tolerate any rioting or major demonstrations, with pro-Palestinian protests likely to exploit the publicity of the event for their movement.

Peruvian government pass law preventing prosecution for crimes against humanity.

The legislation prevents prosecutions of alleged crimes committed prior to 2002. The measure is almost certainly meant to appease senior military officials and former President Alberto Fujimori. Fujimori was allegedly implicated in the use of death squads to quash the Shining Path – the rebel Communist Party of Peru – in the 1990s. The measure is likely to result in protests and widespread international condemnation.

Brazil plans to strengthen ties with China.

The President of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has said he will discuss a “long-term strategic partnership” when he meets with the President of China, Xi Jinping, after the G20 leaders’ summit in November. Lula has confirmed that he doesn’t want Brazil’s relationship with the USA to be jeopardised due to new links with China, but is eager to strengthen the economy and improve diplomatic ties.

Trump campaign hacked

On 10 August, former US President Donald Trump’s staff said that their campaign had been targeted by hackers, leading to insider documents being leaked to the press. The campaign accused “foreign sources hostile to the United States” of carrying out the attack. Although Iran was not named directly, it is clear that, following reports that a plot to assassinate Trump was launched by Tehran, the Shia regime is likely the prime suspect.

Mass shooting in Clarendon, Jamaica

On 12 August, eight people were killed and eleven injured after a mass shooting in the Clarendon area of Jamaica. Jamaica’s prime minister has urged anyone with information to come forward and a national security council meeting was convened on 13 August. The incident is likely related to an ongoing feud between rival gangs but has raised concerns over a bloody gang war in the area.

Colombian President Petro claims rebel plot to assassinate him

According to the president, Ivan Mordisco, the commander of the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), a breakaway group of the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), had hired a drug trafficking group to carry out the targeted assassination. While no independent verification of the claims was released, the case highlights the continuing decrease of relations between the government and units of the EMC, after a ceasefire between the two broke down in July due to ongoing violence.

Canada’s first “State of Wildfires” report underscores climate change impact

The report is the first of a planned series covering yearly wildfires globally. The report found that, while the total number of acres burned in 2023-2024 was slightly below the average of previous seasons, wildfire-related carbon emissions increased by 16 per cent. This increase was almost certainly due to the severe wildfires in Canada, whose Boreal forests emit larger quantities of stored carbon when burned.

The report also assesses that the probability of “extreme fire seasons” has increased “significantly” due to anthropogenic climate change, with regions such as Canada and Amazonia particularly affected.

Hurricane Ernesto impacts Caribbean and heads towards Bermuda

Hurricane Ernesto formed in the Atlantic Ocean 300 miles east of Antigua on 5 August. The hurricane passed over Antigua and the Leeward islands, causing 4-6 inches of rain, before clearing the islands on Tuesday morning and heading towards Puerto Rico, where around half of the population was without power. Furthermore, more than half a foot of rain had fallen, interrupting water filtration processes, leaving 120,000 water customers without drinking water.

The hurricane hit the Virgin Islands leading to 28,000 people left without power. Ernesto changed course northwards and is currently heading towards Bermuda. Hurricane warnings have been issued for Bermuda, with warnings that it could become a Category 3 storm by the time it gets to the island. Residents of Bermuda are being urged to prepare for the worst.

The storm is not expected to pass over mainland USA, but warnings of life-threatening surf and rip currents on the east coast have been issued as far north as Canada.

Denmark has placed pressure on Sweden to restrain the growing cross-border gang violence, following the arrest and charging of 10 Swedes in the country for crimes including attempted murder and weapon possession. In recent years, policing cooperation between Nordic countries has increased. The Danish government has particularly called for joint efforts to strengthen border controls with Sweden to tackle the issue.

Solace Global Assessment: 

More than half of the individuals arrested in Denmark are minors. This almost certainly underscores the established practice by Denmark and Sweden-based gangs to employ underage individuals to carry out violent and drug-related offences. Minors are less likely to receive harsh jail sentences and are more difficult to detect and track when conducting cross-border operations. Moreover, minors are likely more vulnerable to being groomed by gang members. Sweden-based gangs are known to target vulnerable children, at times breaking them out of youth homes with promises of desirable and status-enhancing rewards, such as clothes, money, and drugs.

The Danish government has increasingly sought to secure its borders, and the attempts to crack down on cross-border gang operations are likely a reflection of a broader approach meant to avoid the spillover of crime trends within Danish borders. There is a realistic possibility that the implementation of stricter measures by Danish officials will result in domestic civil unrest, as well as have diplomatic consequences within the EU. At the same time, an internationalisation of the gang networks of Sweden could affect Sweden’s relations with its European neighbours.

Finally, the use of minors by gangs may increase rates of radicalisation. While still not conclusive, recent data seems to show that, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the average age of “lone wolves” in Europe has decreased, with more than a dozen individuals under 20 years of age arrested in connection with terrorist plots in Europe in 2024 alone. As gang and extremist networks often overlap, with multiple lone wolves having previously engaged in gang-related activity, the greater participation of minors in organised crime groups may result in more radicalisation. As these groups tend to have access to firearms and other weapons, there is a realistic possibility that this trend could lead to more severe or sophisticated attacks.

Iran has rejected recent calls for restraint from several Western nations regarding a retaliatory attack on Israel for the assassination of Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, has stated that Iran must respond and that it would face “divine wrath” for failing to do so, a sentiment which has been echoed across Iranian media.

The US has continued to enhance its force posture in the region by accelerating the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) which is equipped with F-35C fighter jets, and publicly declaring that it has deployed a nuclear-powered guided missile submarine (SSGN) to the region. Hezbollah has continued its drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel and the Golan Heights with multiple attacks a day. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has mobilised more forces in northern Israel near the Lebanon border and IDF have conducted military exercises at the Haifa Naval Base to simulate defence and attack scenarios in northern Israel, including the maritime space.

Ceasefire talks in Doha, Qatar scheduled for 15 August are set to continue through to at least 16 August. Ceasefire talks have included US, Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli officials but have not included Hamas who have refused to attend on the grounds that Israel is deceiving to prolong the war and even expand it to a regional conflict.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The most likely course of action for Iran is a layered drone, missile and rocket attack coordinated with its proxy forces throughout the Middle East. However, Iran has likely delayed its attack for numerous reasons. Firstly, Tehran will want to observe how successful the current ceasefire talks are, with Hezbollah also indicating that a ceasefire could delay or even cancel its retaliation for the assassination of one of its senior commanders. However, with Hamas refusing to attend, ceasefire talks are unlikely to produce any significant progress.

Moreover, accepting a ceasefire will not be tolerated by the more extreme elements of Netanyahu’s coalition, with far-right leader Ben Gvir threatening to leave the coalition if a ceasefire is agreed upon before the destruction of Hamas, an unlikely and hard-to-qualify situation. Iran has likely been forced to delay due to issues regarding logistics, planning and coordination, especially if it has to supply proxy forces throughout the region. The delay will also have a psychological effect on Israeli citizens and will likely help Iran achieve some degree of operational surprise, increasing its chances of penetrating Israeli air defence.

Lastly, Iran is set to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russia may be pressuring Iran to delay until it secures delivery of these and withdraws its personnel from Iran who are currently training on these systems. Iran’s delay has enabled the US increase to its force posture in the region, which may influence the scale of Iran’s expected attack. The CSG, which involves escorting destroyers, combined with the SSGN, has not only increased the US air defence capability in the region but also hugely increased its air and sea-launched cruise missile capability in the region. This is likely to influence Tehran’s decision-making process and serve as a deterrent to a major escalation.

There is a realistic possibility that Israel’s enhanced force posture in the north is shaping activity for a future offensive into southern Lebanon. This course of action will likely be triggered by mass casualties from a Hezbollah attack, with the IDF’s most probable limit of advance the Litani River not to provoke hostilities with wider Lebanese society. However, this would likely be supported by expanded air strikes in northern and central Lebanon against Hezbollah high-value targets.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has declared the “monkeypox” or “Mpox” outbreak a public health emergency across the continent, particularly due to its severe impact on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Limited reporting indicates that since January, Africa has recorded at least 38, 465 Mpox cases and almost 1,500 deaths.

The continent-wide warning has been issued in response to the Clade Ib strain, a subtype of the virus, spreading to at least 16 countries, including Burundi, Cameroon, Congo, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Rwanda, the DRC, South Africa, Uganda and Kenya.

On 15 August, the Swedish government confirmed the first case of the new Mpox variant outside of Africa, with one person diagnosed in the Stockholm area.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The Africa CDC’s declaration marks the first time it has used its continental security powers, granted in 2022, to address a major outbreak. The declaration underscores the CDC’s assessment that a coordinated and proactive approach across the continent is required to curtail the spread of Mpox. However, the provision of medical services in Africa is hugely dependent on foreign aid. Without foreign intervention from organisations like the World Health Organization (WHO), it is unlikely that the spread of the virus will be effectively managed, likely a motivating factor for the Africa CDC to declare it a continent-wide emergency.

The disease, which is characterised by a range of symptoms, including fever, muscle aches, skin lesions, rashes, headaches, fatigue and swollen lymph nodes typically has a global death rate of three to six per cent. However, the new Clade Ib strain is assessed to be more virulent and have a higher death rate. Early estimates indicate that the death rate may be as high as five per cent for adults and ten per cent for children, making it the most deadly strain of Mpox currently identified. Most new cases of Mpox are sexually transmitted but there is also evidence to suggest that the new strain can spread between people more easily than previous strains. These factors have led to concerns that the virus will spread beyond Africa, especially if the new strain can spread without symptoms, a key factor which can determine the severity of an epidemic.

The Africa CDC is currently assessing that 10 million Mpox vaccines are needed in Africa and is currently negotiating for 200,000 from international partners. However, there are major shortages and delays due to regulatory approvals and logistical demands. Moreover, if the virus continues to spread outside of Africa, there is a realistic possibility that vaccines will be diverted to other regions, with Europe previously managing the 2022-23 outbreak through rapid vaccinations.

Latest UK gas-fired powered station approval likely to drive environmentalist unrest

On 14 August, the London High Court dismissed a legal challenge against a BP-backed project to create a gas-powered power plant, to be constructed in the Teesside area of northeast England. The legal challenge had been supported by environmentalist groups.

As environmentalist groups in the UK have increasingly sought to cause business and transport disruptions in response to adverse legislative and judicial developments, there is a high likelihood of “retaliatory” action following the latest setback. Activist groups’ protests are likely to take the form of road blockades and symbolic gestures, although there is a realistic possibility of sabotage action targeting energy infrastructure. This latter course of action presents a much lower chance of arrest and detection, and it may become more popular following the increasing number of harsh sentences given by UK courts to environmentalist activists who participated in road blockades and other high-visibility actions.

The EU and Elon Musk engage in row over hate speech online

The EU’s digital commissioner Thierry Breton warned X.com owner Elon Musk not to amplify “harmful content” online, after Musk conducted an interview with Republican candidate Donald Trump on 12 August. The interview, which was marred by technical problems, was singled out by Breton as a possible driver of disinformation and violent speech in the EU.

The EU previously sanctioned X.com in January 2024 for failing to respect its social media laws. Under Musk’s ownership, X.com has increasingly become a hotspot for the spread of disinformation, as well as extremist content. There is a realistic possibility, also considering the recent disinformation-fuelled riots in the UK, of further EU action targeting X.com. This, in turn, may have important spillover effects for European information spaces.

YouTube bans Portuguese far-right party’s channel

On 13 August streaming giant YouTube banned the channel of the Portuguese ultranationalist group, Grupo 1143 due to violations relating to hate speech unearthed by an enquiry by the New York Times. Grupo 1143, which is named after the year Portugal became a sovereign nation, has organised anti-immigration and anti-Muslim protests throughout the country and its leader, Mario Machado, has served time for assault and racial discrimination.

There is a realistic possibility that the banning of the group’s YouTube channel could lead to organised protests or reprisal attacks, with Grupo 1143 linked to attacks on Portugal’s immigrant community.

Thousands of Slovaks protest government’s democratic backsliding

On 12-13 August, almost 20,000 Slovaks took to the streets of Bratislava to protest recent government actions that they see as undermining the rule of law and democratic freedoms. The opposition is urging Brussels to hold the Slovak government accountable.

Frustrations with Prime Minister Robert Fico’s coalition, including the ultranationalist Slovak National Party, have intensified after several controversial developments. These include the dismissal of the directors of the Slovak National Theatre and National Gallery by Culture Minister Martina Šimkovičová, the release of former special prosecutor Dušan Kováčik following an appeal by Justice Minister Boris Susko, and Fico’s plans to disband the National Crime Agency.

Opposition leaders and European lawmakers from Progressive Slovakia warn that these actions represent a systemic erosion of democracy, with protests expected to continue. The European Commission has yet to respond but faces growing pressure to address Slovakia’s democratic backsliding.

Controversial Bulgarian anti-LGBT law set to pass

Bulgarian President Radev has refused to veto an anti-LGBT law passed by the country’s parliament, indicating that it will be passed into law. The law is an amendment to the Pre-School and School Education Law, which bans “non-traditional sexual orientation” education in schools.

The law has already provoked demonstrations on the streets of Sofia and in the major port city of Varna. Further protests against the law are likely and the government’s endorsement of anti-LGBT sentiment could embolden far-right counter-demonstrations, which may lead to violent confrontations.

The passing of the law may also strain Bulgaria’s relationship with the European Union, which upholds principles of equality and non-discrimination.

Opposition leaders arrested in Tanzania

On 12 August, police arrested the leaders of the main opposition party CHADEMA as they prepared to attend a meeting in the country’s southwest. Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who came to power in 2021, has supervised some progress towards democratisation, including lifting bans on political rallies. However, this “liberalisation” has remained extremely constrained, and the government almost certainly remains determined to quash local opposition.

Along with the party’s leaders, dozens of youth wing members were also arrested. The party’s leaders were released on bail on 13 August. There is a realistic possibility of the crackdown resulting in civil unrest, possibly leading to further police intervention.

Woman left paralysed after being shot by the Iranian religious police

According to reports, an Iranian citizen was shot by the religious police for not complying with the country’s strict religious dress laws. The religious dress laws are largely unpopular with the Iranian population, and cases of spontaneous protest and non-compliance have continued following the brutal crackdown of the 2022 unrest that followed the police’s killing in custody of Mahsa Amini.

There is a realistic possibility of further protests being caused by the latest case, albeit these are unlikely to match the severity of those in 2022. The government’s response to the shooting may provide a signal of the extent to which reformist President Pezeshkian intends to challenge the influence and control of the hardline religious police.

Guards open fire to deter migrant crossings in Poland

A video was shared on social media reportedly showing Polish officers opening fire to deter migrants from storming the border fence at the Poland-Belarus border. The incident, dated 11 August, is possibly the first case of implementation of a law, passed last month, that allows border guards to fire live bullets if threatened. The case did not result in any fatalities.

However, further incidents may drive protests in Poland and other European countries. In the medium term, increasingly harsh policing at the Polish borders could drive migrants to attempt to reach the EU via the Baltic states, further north.

White supremacist lone wolf attack at Mosque in Eskişehir, Turkey

At least seven people were wounded on the morning of 13 August as an 18-year-old individual, armed with a knife and an axe, attacked bystanders at a park near a local Mosque before being arrested. The attacker published a manifesto online before the stabbing and live-streamed the terror attack on X.com via a body-worn camera.

The content of the manifesto, the use of body-worn livestreaming, and multiple neo-Nazi symbols worn by the attacker make it almost certain that the individual espoused a white supremacist ideology and sought to imitate the 2019 Christchurch Mosque shooter. Copycat attacks by white supremacists have regularly taken place over the last decade. As almost all of the attackers are radicalised online, their actions share important similarities, namely “performative” elements – such as live streaming the attack or writing a manifesto – the selection of high-visibility targets, and the promotion of an ideology that combines racist imagery and themes with online subcultures, including non-terror-related ones.

The attacker’s manifesto called for copycat actions, and there is a realistic possibility of further attacks. Finally, the attack is notable as it is the first lone wolf attack in Turkey to explicitly draw inspiration from the Christchurch one, which emphasises the global reach of online white supremacist subcultures.

Iran Central Bank (CBI) targeted in cyberattack

On 14 August, the computer systems of CBI and other banks in the country went offline, with disruptions among the largest ever caused by a cyberattack targeting the Iranian public sector. Responsibility for the attack remains unclear, but there is a realistic possibility that it was carried out by anti-regime hacktivist groups.

In March, a hacker group – known as “API” – infiltrated the Iranian state railway company, resulting in a confidential documents leak. In December 2023, the regime accused the Israeli “Predatory Sparrow” group of carrying out a cyberattack on the country’s fuel stations.

Sudanese rebel group declares famine in southern states

The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) has warned of a hunger catastrophe in Sudan’s Nuba Mountains and parts of Blue Nile state, with 20 per cent of families facing severe food shortages and 30 per cent of children suffering from malnutrition. The potential famine is being attributed to the ongoing civil war and poor harvests. The population in these regions has swelled to almost four million due to displacement from other parts of the country. The war between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has exacerbated food insecurity, with both sides accused of humanitarian access and destroying food infrastructure.

Turkey mediates dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia

Ethiopia and Somalia have made significant progress in resolving a dispute triggered by Ethiopia’s agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Tension originally arose after Ethiopia signed a memorandum with Somaliland, under which Ethiopia would lease a 20-kilometre stretch of Somaliland’s coastline to guarantee port access and increase trade, in exchange for recognising Somaliland’s independence. Somalia has stated that the deal is a violation of its sovereignty and has gone as far as threatening war.

Turkey’s mediation efforts have focused on ensuring Ethiopia’s sea access while respecting Somalia’s territorial integrity, with a third round of talks is scheduled for September.

Sierra Leone court hands out tough sentences for those involved in 2022 coup attempt

A military court in Sierra Leone has sentenced 24 soldiers to prison terms ranging from 50 to 120 years for their roles in a failed coup attempt against President Julius Maada Bio’s government in November 2022. The soldiers were part of a group of 27 men court-martialled for attacking military barracks, prisons, and other locations, leading to over 20 deaths and the release of around 2,200 inmates. A military jury found most of the accused guilty on charges including mutiny, murder, and theft.

The sentencing follows earlier severe convictions of civilians and security personnel involved in the coup attempt and has likely been orchestrated to deter future coups in a region where they are becoming more frequent.

Germany investigates possible sabotage at military barracks near Cologne

On 14 August, a German military base near Cologne airport was sealed off, and thousands of soldiers were advised not to drink tap water due to potential contamination after a possible act of sabotage. The Cologne-Wahn base, which houses 4,300 service personnel and 1,200 civilian employees, is being investigated by police, military police, and German intelligence agencies. The base is also home to military aircraft used by the German government. Authorities have refused to comment and water samples have been taken away for further analysis.

The potential act of sabotage follows a wider European trend with incidents of sabotage reported at military or arms facilities in Poland, the UK, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and several other countries. While there are no indications as to who may have unlawfully accessed the Cologne base, NATO has recently cautioned about a series of hostile actions orchestrated by Moscow, including sabotage and cyberattacks. However, recent low-sophistication sabotage attacks across Europe have highlighted their effectiveness and the high level of plausible deniability involved, indicating that various actors hostile to the German state could be responsible for this incident.

Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian Nord Stream suspect

German authorities have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor “Volodymyr Z.” over the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea near the island of Bornholm in 2022. He is suspected of carrying out the attack with at least two others, also believed to be Ukrainian citizens. The pipelines, key conduits for Russian gas to Europe, were damaged by explosions in September 2022, leading to international investigations.

While the suspect was last known to be living in Poland, authorities believe he has since fled to Ukraine. There is currently no evidence linking the suspects to the Ukrainian government, although it is unlikely that ordinary citizens would have been able to conduct such a complicated attack without state help. If Ukraine refuses to help, it may undermine Germany’s support for the war effort.

Greece struggles with record heat and wildfires near capital

Hundreds of firefighters have been battling a massive wildfire in the northern suburbs of Athens, which began in the northeastern Attica region on 11 August. Thousands of residents were evacuated as the fire spread to schools, hospitals, and fuel stations, with multiple explosions reported. The first fatality of the summer wildfire season was confirmed when a woman’s body was found in Vrilissia.

In response, Greece activated the European Civil Protection Mechanism, seeking assistance from EU countries. With containment efforts ongoing, the extent of the damage remains unclear, and Greece is facing what could be its hottest summer on record with further wildfires almost certain.

Dozens killed in garbage landslide in Kampala, Uganda

On 10 August, a garbage landslide in Kiteezi in Uganda’s capital, Kampala killed at least 30 people and dozens remain missing. The garbage landslide followed heavy rains that triggered extensive flooding across East Africa. The landslide occurred in the middle of the night and buried informal homes whilst their occupants slept. The Kiteezi waste dump serves as Kampala’s only landfill, a city with a metropolitan population of 6.7 million.

Residents have long complained over the hazardous conditions but the collection of rubbish serves as a major source of income for many of the area’s residents. There is a realistic possibility that the increasing death toll and lack of government regulation or accountability could trigger localised unrest.

Throughout the reporting period, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has intensified its attacks against Pakistani forces and infrastructure across Balochistan.

On 14 August, the BLA targeted a rally organised by the Pakistani military in Mand Soro with a remote-controlled improvised explosive device (RCIED), but avoided civilian casualties through the timing of the attack. On the same day, BLA fighters conducted an attack on Pakistani positions in Sepin Tangi, Harnai, killing two soldiers and injuring three.

The previous day, on 13 August, the BLA attacked a Pakistani military post in Shah Mardan, Kalat, using rockets and small arms fire, causing both casualties and financial losses. In Rakni, Harnai, BLA fighters disabled a mobile spy tower installed by Pakistani military and intelligence agencies by setting fire to it.

In Gwadar, the BLA executed a series of attacks on 14 August, including a remote-controlled bomb explosion in Pishukan that injured two Pakistani personnel. The day also saw bomb explosions in Jiwani and Pasni and the discovery of additional bombs in Panwan.

Solace Global Assessment: 

BLA attacks have almost certainly been timed to coincide with Pakistan’s Independence Day on 14 August to maximise the publicity of the attacks and subversion of the central government. Whilst these attacks have been publicly attributed to the BLA, there is a high chance that they have also involved other Baloch groups such as the Baloch Liberation Front. These attacks may set a precedent for future waves of Baloch attacks which could be designed to coincide with other important dates such as 27 December or the “Baloch Martyrs’ Day” which honours Baloch fighters who have died in the struggle for independence.

BLA attacks have largely been coordinated against targets associated with the security services and are almost certainly being designed to minimise civilian casualties. This strategic approach is likely to help the BLA maintain legitimacy and support among Baloch communities, ensuring that their struggle is seen as a targeted effort against perceived oppressors rather than a direct threat to innocent civilians.

These attacks continue to disrupt Pakistan’s plans to get the Gwadar International Airport fully operational by 14 August. The airport is an integral part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a 3,000km corridor and the main component of China’s Belts and Roads Initiative. Detering Chinese investment and operations in Balochistan is one of the BLA’s and BLF’s primary objectives. Baloch groups have accused Pakistan and China of resource exploitation, economic marginalisation and environmental damage. Chinese workers are one of the few civilian demographics targeted by Baloch militants.

China has publicly criticised Pakistan for its inability to protect Chinese workers and interests. This has led Beijing to demand widespread counterterrorism operations by Pakistan and also a request to deploy Chinese security personnel to Pakistan, which so far Pakistan has refused. The recent surge and scale of Baloch attacks may force Pakistan to reconsider. However, the deployment of Chinese security personnel to Pakistan will likely justify the Baloch narrative, provide propaganda material, increase recruitment and potentially lead to more frequent and complex attacks on both Chinese and Pakistani security services.

On 14 August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with the leader of the Myanmar junta in Naypyidaw after months of revel offensive have strained relations between the neighbouring countries. Border security was one of the main topics discussed and Wang publicly expressed China’s opposition to the war, with much of it occurring near its border China has promised to provide technical support and aid to the junta in exchange for a national election.

Solace Global Assessment: 

Beijing’s increased involvement in the Myanmar civil war is almost certainly being driven by the destabilisation of the areas that border China. It follows the rebel’s recent capture of Lashio, a major trading town in Shan state that forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, the proposed election will almost certainly be dismissed as a sham by Western nations after the disbandment of multiple parties by the junta.

Moreover, there is a high likelihood that many of the ethnic rebel groups will refuse to take part in a national election after seizing the initiative in the war. Many of their parties have been disbanded and their ultimate aim is likely greater autonomy or outright separation, suggesting a truce will be hard to secure. The continuation of the war is creating a dire humanitarian situation in Myanmar and there are also increasing reports of war crimes committed by all sides involved but primarily the junta forces.

Furthermore, both the junta and some of the rebel forces are likely exploiting the fog of war to target the predominantly Muslim ethnic Rohingya. In one recent drone and artillery attack, up to 200 Rohingya were killed and 300 injured as they were attempting to flee the country to Bangladesh from Rakhine state. One of the largest rebel groups, the Arakan Army has blamed the junta for the massacre, with the junta blaming the rebel group. This attack forms part of a wider picture which has included the torching of Rohingya homes and the forcible recruitment of Rohingya men for frontline operations.

The attacks will almost certainly force the displacement of the Rohingya creating a surge in internally displaced persons (IDPs) within Myanmar and a further deterioration in the humanitarian situation. It may also lead to a refugee crisis in Bangladesh, with its largest refugee camp, Cox’s Bazar struggling to cope with around one million refugees. As conditions worsen, more Rohingya may attempt to flee by sea to neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. These journeys are incredibly dangerous, place the Rohingya in a position to be exploited by criminal gangs and smugglers and in many cases they are not accepted by the destination countries.

On 14 August, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was dismissed from office after Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that he had breached ethics regulations for appointing a cabinet minister who had a criminal conviction. Srettha, who was in power for less than a year, is now the fourth Thai prime minister in 16 years to be removed by a verdict from the Constitutional Court.

The ruling coalition, which holds 314 out of 493 seats in the Thai House of Representatives and is dominated by the Pheu Thai Party, was then provided two options to nominate for prime minister. The first choice was, Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney-general and justice minister. The other choice was Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of the ousted former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra- a man who has spent decades challenging Thailand’s conservative establishment and royalist military.

On 16 August the coalition decided to nominate Paetongtarn.

Solace Global Assessment: 

The dismissal of Prime Minister Srettha is likely further evidence of Thailand’s democratic backsliding after the recent dissolution of the reformist Move Forward Part (MFP). The removal of Srettha not only demonstrates the establishment’s almost unchecked power but could signal an end to the uneasy truce between it and Pheu Thai.

It is unlikely that the establishment will be able to block the Pheu Thai coalition from nominating a prime ministerial candidate as they control a majority in parliament. However, mechanisms exist to enable the establishment to block a candidate’s appointment. The Senate, which is largely appointed by the military, must also endorse parliament’s decision. The Constitutional Court can challenge the legality of the nomination, and the election commission can challenge the eligibility of Thai members of parliament. Should the establishment leverage any of these options after removing Srettha and dissolving MFP, there is a high likelihood of disruptive protests in Thailand- demonstrations that could evolve into a wider pro-democracy movement like those observed in 2020-21.

Conversely, the appointment of another Shinawatra will almost certainly be interpreted as Thaksin running Thailand from behind the scenes. Paetongtarn ‘s nomination will likely galvanise the establishment’s base and lead to accusations of corruption and nepotism. Several protests have erupted in the past relating to the Shinawatra family, most notably the 2006 anti-Thaksin protests championed by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), or “Yellow Shirts”- movements that typically provoke a reaction from the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), or “Red Shirts”.

Doctors protest following rape and murder case in Kolkata, India

More than 8,000 Indian doctors and other healthcare professionals have launched a strike, paralysing non-emergency services across multiple states including West Bengal, Maharashtra, Goa, and Uttar Pradesh. The doctors are protesting unsafe working conditions, after one of their colleagues, a 31-year-old trainee medic, was raped and killed at a public hospital.

Moreover, some reports have emerged indicating that the victim’s college initially tried to cover up the murder, telling her family that she had “committed suicide”. These have further inflamed public outcry, with doctors calling for strikes at a national level. Gender-based violence continues to be an extremely severe issue in India, which continues to rank among the most affected countries globally.

Moreover, healthcare workers are at a disproportionately higher risk of violence, and a study from 2023 assesses that up to 75 per cent of health workers in India have been victims of physical or verbal abuse at some point in their careers.

Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, stands down

The 14 August announcement ends the prime minister’s three-year tenure, which was marked by a major corruption scandal and the decline of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) popular support. The LDP has remained in power for much of the past 70 years but has faced a significant decline under the current administration.

No opposition party likely has enough traction to challenge LDP as of now. However, Kishida’s resignation could have important implications for the 2025 elections. An increasingly unstable LDP could further discourage foreign investors and have negative impacts on Japanese markets.

Indonesia set to open new capital in Nusantara

The inauguration of Indonesia’s new capital is set to take place on 17 August. The new capital, which is far from being completed, will be located in the province of East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo.

The construction of a new capital has been contentious and plagued with environmental concerns, especially deforestation and a loss of biodiversity. It also threatens to displace indigenous people and costs are anticipated to spiral out of control.

The creation of a new capital underlines the vulnerability of Jakarta, which is mired by overcrowding, pollution, congestion but most importantly is sinking, with 40 per cent of the metropolis now assessed as being below sea level.

Taliban celebrate three years of rule in Afghanistan

On 14 August, the Taliban marked the third anniversary of their return to power, which included a military parade outside a former US air base near Kabul.

The Taliban have consolidated their grip on power in that time, imposed harsh restrictions on women and girls, detained hundreds of journalists and presided over economic decline. The Taliban government are yet to be formally recognised by another government and is plagued by internal divisions. Its continued control will almost certainly lead to further human rights abuses and severe humanitarian issues.

Anti-Hindu sectarian violence on the rise in Bangladesh

Following the collapse of the Hasina government and the prime minister’s escape to India, the transition government of Bangladesh has noted the increase of sectarian violence against Hindu temples and private property, as well as reported cases of lynchings and mob attacks.

The government’s collapse has almost certainly opened a security vacuum that domestic and Islamist groups are seeking to fill. These include both well-established groups, like Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJeI), and smaller Islamist formations that have so far had little impact on Bangladeshi society. For instance, a small branch of the Islamic State, known as the Bengal Province (ISBP) was formed in 2014 and has remained active, especially via online propaganda. The government’s collapse, combined with broader trends within IS including its shift away from its historic centre in Syria and Iraq, may present an opportunity for ISBP to intensify operations, including by carrying out attacks and recruitment campaigns.

Moreover, the increased prominence of sectarian violence in Bangladesh may have spillover effects outside of the country. Sectarian violence involving Hindus and Muslims in the Indian subcontinent has at times drive unrest in countries that have a large south Asian diaspora, such as the UK and Canada. The most notable example is the 2022 Leicester riots, however, the Bangladesh protests have more recently driven unrest in the UK, with clashes recorded in July in the Whitechapel area of London.

Taiwan to conduct military exercises

Taiwan is set to hold military exercises off its eastern coast on 20 August. The exercises will involve the live-firing of multiple air-launched missile systems by Taiwan’s air force along the east coast and near Orchid Island. The exercise is likely aimed at countering Chinese attempts to encircle the island and enforce a blockade, and will likely to be met with a major Chinese demonstration of strength.

More than 100 people dead in India due to heavy rains and landslides.

The death toll surpassed 100 on 12 August. Authorities have also closed more than 220 roads, including four national highways, due to landslides, in the state of Himachal Pradesh. The floods that have affected the north Indian state since the past weekend have likely been exacerbated by the poor state of local infrastructure, with multiple reports of river banks collapsing, as well as the mountainous local terrain, which concentrates water flows towards valley settlements and complicates rescue efforts.

North Korea announces it will reject foreign aid after severe floods.

Regime officials reportedly rejected offers by South Korea, although it is unclear if they will also turn down Russian offers to provide help. The approximately 15,000 people displaced by the floods in Sinuiju will be moved to Pyongyang. Due to North Korea’s extremely strict government control, public unrest remains highly unlikely.

New Zealand charity distributes sweets contaminated with methamphetamine.

Authorities in New Zealand are racing to recover sweets distributed by the homeless charity Auckland City Mission after it was discovered that several of the sweets were contaminated with the drug methamphetamine. Preliminary reports indicate that the sweets contain as much as 300 times the lethal dose of the synthetic stimulant.

The sweets have already hospitalised three people and are wrapped in the label of the Malaysian brand Rinda. Disguising narcotics as sweets is a common cross-border smuggling tactic and the current assessment is that the sweets were donated to the charity by accident.

 However, only 16 sweets have been recovered and the authorities are unaware as to how many have been distributed. The full recovery of the sweets is highly unlikely, with each one reportedly worth around USD 600.